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accirax · 2 months ago

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hey everybody! wanted to make a quick post to say that, due to various holiday shenanigans, i'm not sure how quickly i'll be able to get through the entirety of P:EG chapter 1. i really don't want to be spoiled, so i'll obviously be blocking the tag, but i also ask that nobody send me any asks related to the chapter until i'm done experiencing it! i'll probably either make an initial thoughts-y type post once i'm done, or reblog this post/someone else's art when that's the case. thank you :)

with that out of the way...

LAST MINUTE PREDICTIONS GAME JUMPSCARE!!! small explanatory blurbs under the cut :D

before i get into any of the individual selections: the third victim scenario. the basic formula of the predictions game requires that Chapter 3 contain two victims. however, even though i can't find the source, i'm 99% sure i've heard that Team: Eden's Garden (T:EG, if you will) has confirmed that they won't be following along with typical murder "tropes" such as the Chapter 3 double kill or Chapter 4's buff curse. therefore, Venus and i decided that, for P:EG specifically, we would not have two victims, and instead create an extra survivor slot. consider it a bonus rule applied in advance.

of course, the "fact" that there won't be two Chapter 3 victims doesn't mean that T:EG isn't planning to have multiple victims in a different chapter. however, if that's the case, we'll figure it out later. if anyone wants to play against Venus and I, do whatever you like ^_^

anyways!

Toshiko in the role of Chapter 1 Victim

this was obviously inspired by the fact that Toshiko isn't at all visible in the Trial portion of the Chapter 1 trailer. that feels to hint at her absence too obviously, but, does it...?

i'm really torn on whether i think the Ch1 victim will be her or not. on one hand, i think that Toshiko is a really unique and cool character concept that i hope T:EG has the opportunity to do more with. she was one of the characters that got the most focus in (the introductions part of) the Prologue, which might indicate that they're setting her up as a major player in the story.

however, it also tracks that one of the characters who got the most focus in the Prologue would then become the first victim, as the Prologue would be one of the best opportunities with which to give them focus. on the surface, it seems a bit random that they would make her so much younger than everyone else for just a role as the first victim, but it could be intentional. for instance, if the idea behind her character's creation was "what kind of first victim would make Wolfgang become the most aggro?", suddenly it becomes viable.

i swear, the P:EG cast is made up of half high variance characters (will either go super-Ch1-early or super-Ch5/6-late) and half characters that are definitely gonna die in the middle somewhere, but i don't really care where. the high variance characters are way more scary, because getting the coin flip wrong can land you with a bunch of points :( i totally think Toshiko has the potential to go far, which is why listing her first freaks me out.

what i will say is that, if Toshiko is the first victim, i think it's actually a good sign as to the quality of P:EG's writing. if even their first victim is as intriguing and clearly delineated as Toshiko, we're in for a good time!

Jean in the role of Chapter 1 Killer

at this point, i'm believing that Jean is the Chapter 1 killer (as per my theory) until canon proves me otherwise. which, actually, could be very soon‼

Venus and i just replayed the Prologue in order to fully refresh ourselves on the plot and characters before playing Chapter 1, and genuinely, nothing about what Jean did made me think that he wouldn't be the Chapter 1 killer. not to say that i'll be flabbergasted if i'm wrong, just that the theory holds up better than i thought through my admittedly biased lenses.

no idea where Jean goes if he's not Ch1 killer, also. we'll cross that bridge if/when we get to it!

Desmond in the role of Chapter 2 Victim

full transparency, this is probably the assignment on this sheet i feel worst about. Desmond was one of the last three people i placed, alongside Toshiko and Wenona. my initial vibe check would say that Desmond makes it further than this, more Ch4 or 5-ish.

however, i don't hate this placement. Desmond still hasn't totally clicked for me, and while i think that means his content might be back-loaded in the later chapters, it could also just be that he's not too important. i do like the allure of one weaponsmaster (Desmond) being taken out by another weaponsmaster (Eloise), and think that could be a fun Ch2-level puzzle. Desmond and Eloise also seem to have some sort of relevant relationship with one another, given how they were more-or-less introduced together and how, in the new main title sequence, Desmond's ammo shoots into Eloise. maybe that means they could be a killer/victim pair?

sorry, shippers.

Eloise in the role of Chapter 2 Killer

if anyone is wondering why i'm always calling Eloise that Chapter 2 killer, it's honestly more based on a meme/inside joke than anything at this point. however, that's not to say it has no basis in what i actually believe.

when Venus and i played the Prologue for the first time, we both individually got the strong vibes that Eloise would be, specifically the Chapter 2 killer. she seems fainthearted enough to crack under the pressure of the killing game, but sweet enough to be an appropriately surprising twist when it's revealed that she would kill. she has three separate instances of mentioning that she misses her family (her introduction, the investigation, and after the Class Trial) because you have to set up that early killer's motivation early. and, even if she doesn't use her swordswoman skills to carry out the murder, she has the strength and dexterity to take someone out, as well as directly telling us that she's very strategic and calculated.

ever since, we've joked to each other that Eloise is all but confirmed as the Chapter 2 killer. so, no matter what canon says, Eloise is my Chapter 2 killer <3 (/j)

Jett in the role of Chapter 3 Victim

Jett has big Chapter 3 oddball death energy to me. i think that one of him and Mark will probably survive, but, it could go the other way around! replaying the Prologue, he honestly had way more knowledge about horror and haunted houses than i remembered, which could make him a handy ally throughout the killing game instead. i just can't help but fear that Jett is too silly to live. so, my gut instinct is that Jett will die midgame to allow Mark to come out of his shell a bit afterwards.

Ingrid in the role of Chapter 3 Killer

i initially had Ingrid in the Chapter 3 victim slot before i moved Jett there instead. with Jett, i feel fairly confident that he isn't the type to kill anyone, whereas with Ingrid, i wasn't so sure. i just think that Ingrid has Chapter 3 death energy. i think it's the unique blend of sillyness (such that she wouldn't make it farther) and seriousness (such that she can be taken seriously for three chapters and believed as a killer) with which her character is handled that makes me think so?

she does seem to play by her own rules when it comes to blacksmithing, which could lead to her prioritizing her own belief and needs above the group's sometime down the line. Ingrid is 100% one of those characters who i believe will die in one of those middling chapters, so i don't think i'll score too high with her here no matter what.

Ulysses in the role of Chapter 4 Victim

perhaps if i were a smarter theorist, i'd continue listening to myself of the past and write Ulysses down as the mastermind of P:EG. however, i still just can't shake the feeling that he's important enough of a character to take on that role. not to say that Ulysses is a bad character, just that he feels more like one of the minor characters in the story to me. the only time he was of any particular importance in the Prologue was during his introduction, and i have no clue who his most important character relationship is supposed to be with. the only other character for which i believe this to be true is Ingrid (although, even she was one of the characters who got to participate in the investigation, and got to scold Damon at the end), and, well... you've already seen my thoughts on her. i can't help but feel that a character set up to be so important and late game would already be solidifying some important relationships, or at least bringing some comedy or specific insight to the table.

there's also his note-taking habit, which i believe i've said before totally feels like a victim gimmick to me. deciphering the notes Ulysses left to himself about where he went, who he talked to, what he'd been eating, etc definitely feels like something that would be used to create a unique murder case, with him as the victim. if not Chapter 4, then maybe Chapter 2?

Chapter 2 victim, Chapter 4 victim, or mastermind. what a weird space Ulysses exists in.

Wenona in the role of Chapter 4 Killer

hey, it's the third person i was struggling with.

i don't really know what to do with Wenona. she kinda gives me killer vibes, but that seems too obvious? she also kinda gives me late(r) game vibes, which is probably how she wound up in this late-game killer spot.

sorry, i don't have much to say here. hopefully this doesn't blow up in my face, lol.

Diana in the role of Chapter 5 Victim, Wolfgang in the role of Chapter 5 Killer, Eva in the role of Survivor (and also Damon in the role of Survivor)

quadruple combo!!! allow me to share that incredibly specific scenario i've been cooking up (that i really like) which puts these characters in these spots.

firstly, Diana, and her obvious mastermind-coding. the mastermind-coding is so obvious that it has to go somewhere, right? naturally, it could just result in her being the mastermind, but then i'm not sure why they would be so heavy-handed with it. therefore, i re-propose an idea i've discussed before: someone kills Diana because they think she's the mastermind.

in that case, this person is Wolfgang. the man hates killers and injustices, and believes himself to be a good judge of what's right and wrong. therefore, if he believed he had sights on the mastermind, i believe he could be willing to take a shot at them. of course, in this case, he would fail.

therefore, in the Class Trial, he needs to create a cover for himself. what better course of action than to weaponize his ethos as the Ultimate Lawyer to direct suspicions at the easiest scapegoat, the literal Ultimate Liar?

meanwhile, while Damon clearly has a lot to work through in terms of character arcs, one task on his checklist is surely to make friends. everything about the marketing of this game really makes it seem like Damon and Eva are the core relationship around which the whole story is based. they're Eve and the snake, the Debater and the Liar, and the only two who see through Wolfgang's BS from the beginning. thematically, i think Damon needs a support-type character to survive alongside him, to contrast against his initial lonely elitism. the game seemingly wants us to root for this protagonistic duo to have a happy ending-- and it might be a setup to get us to fight for their survival with all our might.

my vision is that the final Class Trial is where Damon has to put all of his character development to the test, to fully let his Ultimate Debater talent shine as he argues against the Ultimate Lawyer to prove that the Ultimate Liar is telling the truth in her innocence. it's a great setup because, although one might complain about how obvious it would be that Wolfgang would be the killer in this situation, it doesn't matter, because even if you figure out that Wolfgang did it, you still get the catharsis of kicking his ass. and as a bonus, we'd get to reap the benefits of the main antagonist actually getting to be the Chapter 5 killer, instead of circling around it without ever getting to hit the target.

Damon learns to argue for his friends instead of against his enemies, Eva learns that there are people out there who will trust her even when she's been called a liar, and Wolfgang has to reap the consequences of letting his own perceived intellectual superiority lead him to becoming the thing he hates most: a sadistic man who kills an innocent little girl. the end!

i know this idea goes against what i've been promoting-- AKA, a "more interesting" fangan where the authors are willing to kill off their stereotypical antag and support early in favor of surprising the audience with more unique antag and support choices. however, just because i've been asking for that doesn't mean that i actually think it's going to happen, lol. P:EG seems like a fangan to me that's deeply rooted in the Danganronpa classics (even if they won't do Ch3 double kill or Ch4 buff curse), which makes sense from a creative team that isn't otherwise active in the fangan scene, and therefore hasn't considering some of its wackier expeditions. however, as long as they manage to do something fresh with their somewhat stereotypical build, i'll still be happy.

oh, and i've always believed that Damon will be the protagonist for the entire game. he just seems so well-crafted to mirror the main themes and motifs of the story that i'm not sure what the team would gain from killing him off so early (other than the excitement of a protag swap).

Kai in the role of Survivor

um, it's the knowledge that some of the staff members ship kaimon, honestly. to me, that indicates that Kai will have an important relationship with Damon sometime down the line, likely that expands beyond Chapter 1. and, as a high variance character (to me), if you're gonna let the guy make it past Chapter 1, you might as well just let him live, right?

that being said, i do see a path to Kai dying midgame depending on how hard they lean into the "dictatorial influencer" thing. if he becomes more of a villain, i could see him going in Ch3 or 4. i do think he has good setup for a character arc, though, going from not caring about the killing game to actually putting in some effort, and think his humor and patheticness could be a good balancer in a surviving cast. i feel pretty good about this one!

Mark in the role of Survivor

again, you could trade this with Jett; i'm reserving this slot for one of them. i think Mark makes more sense as a survivor because i think that the "my best friend died but i live on" arc makes more sense on him than it does on Jett. for Jett, it would bum him out, sure, but i don't see the connection to his likely character struggles of self image and shame (as implied by his character intro sheet).

meanwhile, Mark's introversion currently appears to be his greatest hurdle, and having to continue on after his only friend dies would echo his arc of needing to open up to others and be positive even when the situation seems dire. plus, having Mark be the one who initially wasn't as interested in talking to Jett is good setup for Mark regretting not talking to Jett more when he had the chance.

Grace in the role of Survivor

i think a lot of people actually don't predict that Grace will survive, which was surprising to me, because she's always given me survivor energy. after Damon, Eva, and Wolfgang (not necessarily in that order), she definitely seemed to be the fourth most important character of the Prologue in a way that, to me, implied longevity.

Grace has a lot going on for her. she's always yelling and fighting with everyone, whether that be students she dislikes, the old men of her profession, or even Tozu himself. That already establishes her with potential (negative) relationships with a lot of people, further elevating her importance. also, she's really unlikable (/pos). this gives her insane character arc potential. why would they make a character that brash and aggravating if they didn't have plans to eventually let her change in some meaningful way?

furthermore, Grace was, surprisingly, one of the few characters to actually provide a new, correct argument in the Prologue Class Trial (she's the one who gets the students thinking about the bleach being in a bucket above the door). that may mean that she's smarter than she appears. might be relevant if she continues to hang around Wolfgang, which seems inevitable. she's a really good contrast to him-- someone who has the same sort of passionate fury that he does, but none of the social tact to prevent her from screaming her beliefs in people's faces. if Wolfgang is around for the long haul, i think Grace will be there with him.

... i'm really excited to learn more about Grace in the Prologue, because i feel i've made a lot of assumptions about her that are possibly unfounded, lol.

Cassidy in the role of Mastermind

Diana or Ulysses or Eva or whatever probably makes more sense, but this is my predictions sheet, so I operate off of my vibe check, yippee!!!

ignore everyone who believes that she's the Chapter 1 victim via visibility! ignore everyone who thinks she's too dumb and comic relief-y to pull off a killing game! ignore the eyebrow-raising logistics of why T:EG would give Cassidy an enemy in Wenona/make Cassidy a communist when that doesn't really make any sense with her being the mastermind! i reap the follies of my OWN poor decision making!!!!!! (/j)

... why am i even putting Cassidy as the mastermind after writing all that, you ask? uh, read my old mastermind ranking theory, idk.

okay that's all :) be back after i finish the chapter!!!

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