#jerome powell jackson hole

[soultiesfinancials]

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

Just would like to share my 2025 insight on the U.S. Economy and if you take time to read it. I would love to hear your feedback.

I legitimately believe that January - March is when we see wether we go in a recession or if the FEDs can successfully stick the soft landing.

With the stock market trading near ALL TIME HIGHs, it does help move us away from a recession. Why? It increases consumer spending. Although I also believe we are 1 "continuous correction" away from heading into a recession.

Now here are my reasons why I think January - March is where we'll get our answers.

Companies in January normally cuts back on temporary hirings / seasonal hirings - this is then when they say they do this to "cut costs" on their Q4 earnings reports

During the last FOMC Q&A (FED Funds Rate Decision) Jerome Powell have stated that the Labor Market has some "serious downside risks" but yesterday FED Barkin said hirings are coming for 2025. Who are we going to believe here?

THE YIELD CURVE

The Yield Curve is still making no sense. We are currently 31bps uninverted on the 10Y/2Y and if we look back in history, we have seen recession when we go more than 50bps uninverted on Yields. For example, 2001, 2008 and 2020 Covid. If we continue to get recessionary data in January - March, we are 1 explosion of the Yield Curve away from a recession. But to some, this makes no sense because we are almost trading at All Time Highs. But when I looked at the charts this morning, im sad to say that we were also trading at then-All Time Highs back in 2000 and 2007.

And as I write this, our 10Y and 2Y are indicating a massive move. I do not know which direction and I wont be guessing.

VALUATION & EARNINGS

The Stock Market's valuation currently is a BUBBLE. Sure, not everyone cares about a company's valuation. But valuation at 200% above GDP screams a ticking time bomb to me.

For Q4 and Q1 Earnings, what I will be paying attention for are the companies' PRICING POWER. With consumer's strength noticeably weak, it will be very interesting to me if these companies like NVDA can keep up commanding high prices for their products. And as soon as these companies lose their Pricing Power, I would no longer be concerned about INFLATION, we now have to face concerns of DEFLATION. And with the Federal Reserves cutting back on rates rapidly, the last thing I wanna see is a resurgence of inflation while we are in deflation and to combine that with weak employment, we get the worst case scenario. STAGFLATION.

THE LABOR MARKET

This is what everyone should pay attention to. These dates will tell us wether the FEDs have successfully stuck a SOFT LANDING. The unemployment rate report(s) for January, February and March.

With the FEDs start of cutting rates back in September before achieving 2% inflation. Combine that with companies possibly losing Pricing Power and could soon face deflation. There are reasons why the FEDs started cutting rates before achieving 2% inflation, and I believe that is what they are not telling us.

Back in August shortly after Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. For the first time, he sounded way too bullish. And it was a red flag for me. I suspected that they "accidentally" broke the labor market. Job reports we got during October and November is not very clear to me. Simply because of the skewed and rigged datas we got because of Election, Government Hirings and Seasonal Hirings. Jobs Report for the next 3 months will be massive for our economy. I strongly believe, that if we survive January - March jobs reports with no single recessionary data, I will tip my hat to Jerome Powell and say, you have stuck the soft landing grandpa! Cheers to 2025 and beyond!

Thank you for reading!

-TradedVhub

[deblala]

Episode 2108: The Lies Of Jared Kushner; Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

https://rumble.com/v1hfp6v-episode-2108-the-lies-of-jared-kushner-jerome-powells-jackson-hole-speech.html

[zhangsanhzgb]

In August 2024, the cryptocurrency market valuation fell back and the financial market experienced brief fluctuations. Bitcoin outperformed the overall crypto market, while Ethereum underperformed and underperformed the overall market.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that a rate cut is imminent, which could be a boon for Bitcoin and other assets competing against the U.S. dollar, such as gold.

Ethereum’s scaling strategy has led to uncertainty among some investors about its long-term prospects, despite a significant increase in activity on its Layer 2 (L2) network.

In August, the market value of stablecoins increased, multiple key protocols were upgraded, and discussions around digital privacy intensified.

The market experienced significant volatility in August. A weaker dollar and lower interest rates could be good for Bitcoin. Global stock markets did not change much overall in August, but there were significant intra-month fluctuations. The employment report in early August was lower than expected, which led to a fall in risk asset prices and a surge in stock volatility, with the VIX index exceeding 65% at one point. However, subsequent economic data did not show further signs of deterioration, and some market sectors rebounded, with the VIX quickly falling back below 20%.

News of a weakening labor market may have influenced the Fed's decision. Powell said at the Jackson Hole conference on August 23 that "the time has come to cut interest rates," reflecting "increased downside risks to employment." Interest rate futures show that the central bank may cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the remaining three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Short-term volatility and rate cut signals have had an impact on the market. Returns on strategies such as short-term volatility strategies and foreign exchange carry trades have fallen sharply, the US dollar has weakened, gold prices have risen, and high-quality bonds and consumer staples stocks have performed well. Bitcoin fell slightly (-8.5%), while Ethereum fell more (-21.8%) and performed poorly.

If dollar weakness and falling interest rates persist, Bitcoin could benefit. Similar to gold, Bitcoin, as an alternative monetary system, could benefit from a decline in the competitiveness of the dollar. Over the past few years, Bitcoin has been negatively correlated with real interest rates and the dollar, so investors who are concerned about a weaker dollar may consider allocating funds to Bitcoin for diversification.

The short-term outlook for Ethereum remains pessimistic. In early August, the price of Ethereum dropped significantly and failed to rebound. Excess long positions in CME-listed futures and perpetual futures caused Ethereum prices to retreat. What’s more, Ethereum is undergoing a major transformation, moving more transactions to the Layer 2 network, which may increase market uncertainty.

On the privacy front, ZCash (ZEC) rose 29.5% in mid-August but has since retreated. ZCash founder joined Shielded Labs to develop the "Crosslink" hybrid consensus mechanism to enhance network security and allow ZEC holders to stake. ZEC’s second halving event is scheduled for November this year, sparking investor interest.

The Aave protocol was also a highlight of August. The number of active borrowers hit an all-time high and the Aave governance token gained 21%. The Aave community has put forward a proposal for a new "buy and distribute" model, which is planned to be launched by the end of 2024, but it still needs community approval.

Stablecoin market capitalization is close to an all-time high. Apple software updates may bring more stablecoin payment adoption, and Circle's USDC stablecoin will soon be able to "tap to pay" on the iPhone. In addition, Mercado Libre launched a dollar-pegged stablecoin, and Tether will also launch a token pegged to the UAE dirham. With the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov in France, people are increasingly concerned about the connection between blockchain technology and digital privacy.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin may hit new highs after the selling pressure ends. Grayscale Research believes that the selling pressure has basically subsided, and if the US labor market stabilizes, the Fed's interest rate cuts and changes in crypto policies may push Bitcoin prices to break through previous highs. The main downside risks are rising unemployment and economic recession, but even in the face of recession risks, policymakers may respond by printing money and spending, further strengthening the investment logic of Bitcoin.

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[ultimate-media-insights]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the likelihood of forthcoming interest rate cuts during his keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole retreat, though he stopped short of offering concrete details on the timing or magnitude of these adjustments. Powell underscored that future monetary policy changes would be dictated by incoming economic data, evolving outlooks, and the balance of risks. This careful approach underscores the Fed’s dedication to responding to economic conditions as they develop to ensure long-term stability. Read more

[virtualcurrencyspace]

Bitcoin Prices Are Falling

Bitcoin’s price dropped below $60,000 on Wednesday as excitement about Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts fizzled out.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin was down 4.8% to $59,105. It has slipped 12% over the past three months, and is now trading 20% below the record high of just under $74,000 it hit back in March.

Other cryptocurrencies were also tumbling. Ether , which trails only Bitcoin in market capitalization, dropped 7.9% to $2,466, and Solana fell 7.2% to just under $146.

It wasn’t immediately clear what was driving the losses, but one factor could be traders taking profits after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday fueled a brief crypto rally.

[insurgentepress]

Vaivén económico por cáculos de la Reserva Federal

Por Erick Olivera Méndez/Ciudad de México.- El discurso más reciente de Jerome Powell, presidente de la Reserva Federal (Fed) de Estados Unidos, durante la conferencia económica anual en Jackson Hole, Wyoming, ha encendido nuevamente el debate sobre el futuro de la política monetaria estadounidense. La señal clara que envió Powell es que ha llegado el momento de ajustar las tasas de interés a la…

[coineagle]

Crypto Investments Surge Amid Speculation of Federal Rate Cut: How is BTC Faring?

Key Points

Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial inflows, possibly due to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts.

BlackRock has increased its Bitcoin holdings, demonstrating rising institutional interest amidst changing economic conditions.

Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have recently seen a significant increase in inflows. As of August 26th, inflows reached $202.6 million, according to Farside Investors.

Despite this positive trend in the ETF market, Bitcoin itself was struggling to surpass the $65,000 mark, trading at $62,898 after a 1.11% decline over the previous 24 hours.

Understanding the Market Dynamics

This discrepancy highlights a broader confusion among investors regarding the relationship between central bank interest-rate policies and their impact on the valuation of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks.

A recent report by CoinShares titled “Digital Asset Fund Flows” indicated that digital asset investment products saw inflows totalling US$533m, marking the largest inflows in five weeks.

This surge in Bitcoin ETFs followed Jerome Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where he suggested the possibility of an initial interest rate cut in September. This has sparked renewed interest in risk assets.

The Fed’s Impact on Digital Assets

The report also emphasized the performance of Bitcoin, noting that it saw US$543m of inflows, primarily following Jerome Powell’s dovish comments. This highlights Bitcoin’s sensitivity to interest rate expectations.

Ethereum ETFs also experienced significant withdrawals from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, totalling $2.5 billion in outflows over the past month.

Wall Street is anticipating a significant reduction in Federal Reserve interest rates from 5.33% to 3.33% over the next 18 months. This expected easing could lead to increased liquidity and investment opportunities, potentially driving up the value of digital assets.

BlackRock recently disclosed an updated portfolio for its Strategic Global Bond Fund, revealing an increase in its holdings of iShares Bitcoin Trust shares. As of the end of June, the fund held 16,000 shares, up from 12,000 shares reported in May.

The impact of the Fed’s rate cuts on asset prices remains to be seen.

[digicloudm]

The Fed has opened the door for 'a brand new bull market' in stocks, Wall Street strategist Jim Paulsen says

Caspar Benson/Getty Images Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole signaled a reset of the bull market clock, says Wall Street vet Jim Paulsen. The Fed’s intent to cut interest rates offers new support for stocks, Paulsen said. “I think it’s hard for a recession to find something to bite on, a vulnerability to bring us down,” Paulsen said. Jerome Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday…

[santeptrader]

Fed taglierà i tassi! Strategie di difesa a Wall Street!

La Fed è pronta a ridurre i tassi, il messaggio lanciato dal presidente Jerome Powell durante il discorso a Jackson Hole non lascia spazio a dubbi. La decisione di abbassare i tassi, prevista per la riunione del 18 settembre, rappresenta un cambiamento significativo nella politica monetaria statunitense, con potenziali ripercussioni sui mercati finanziari globali. Ma cosa significa questo per…

[harinibw]

Bitcoin interest in the United States has surged to a 39-day high following signals from the Federal Reserve hinting at upcoming interest rate cuts. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, highlighted this increase in a recent X post, noting that demand spiked as the Fed suggested a shift towards lower rates. This rise in interest is reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index, which hit 0.0114, its highest level since July 15, indicating strong US buying pressure.

The surge follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he hinted at potential rate cuts without specifying the timing. In response, Bitcoin’s price rose 5.08% to $64,193, briefly peaking at $64,957 before stabilizing below $65,000. Despite this positive momentum, the market remains cautious due to the high cost of mining Bitcoin, estimated at $72,224, and ongoing concerns about potential selling pressure.

[bpfbanjar]

Minyak Naik seiring Pedagang Menunggu Petunjuk Powell tentang Prospek Suku Bunga

PT BESTPROFIT FUTURES BANJARMASIN – Minyak memangkas sebagian kerugian mingguan dengan pasar bergerak naik menjelang pidato Ketua Federal Reserve Jerome Powell di Jackson Hole yang akan memberikan petunjuk tentang arah suku bunga AS. PT. BESTPROFIT Minyak mentah Brent naik mendekati $78 per barel, tetapi masih turun lebih dari 2% dalam seminggu. Pasar saham juga naik pada hari Jumat (23/8)…

[abraaocostaof]

Bolsas de NY fecham em alta com indicação de iminente corte de juros nos EUA | CNN Brasil

As bolsas de Nova York fecharam em alta nesta sexta-feira (23), com os principais índices recuperando ganhos durante a tarde, impulsionadas pelo presidente do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central norte-americano), Jerome Powell. Em discurso durante o Simpósio de Jackson Hole, o dirigente do Fed afirmou que “chegou a hora de ajustar a política” monetária dos Estados Unidos. O índice Dow Jones…

[inkovsky]

The Hang Seng Index opened 119 points lower at 17,521 points, and then fell 147 points to 17,493 points. It fell 28 points or 0.16% for the whole day to 17,612 points. It rose 181 points or 1.04% for the whole week; the technology index fell 39 points or 1.04%. 1.13%, reported at 3,468 points. Main board turnover was HK$78.7 billion.

The recent performance of Hong Kong stock companies has been mixed, and the overall market has not seen any major good news. Therefore, the Hang Seng Index is expected to go wild this week, fluctuating between 17,300 and 18,000 points. The market's weak trading volume reflects the sluggish market conditions. Even if the Hang Seng Index returns to the 17,000 level, investors' enthusiasm has not returned. It is expected that the trading volume will continue to be sluggish and will take time to gradually improve.

European stock markets rose across the board, with British, French and German stocks closing up 0.48%, 0.7% and 0.76% respectively.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, indicating that it was time to adjust policies to boost the job market, and strongly hinted at starting to cut interest rates in September. Analysts pointed out that Powell did not describe the pace of interest rate cuts in progressive terms, which means that more aggressive interest rate cuts are not ruled out. Stimulated by the remarks, U.S. stocks surged, with the three major indexes all closing up more than 1%. After the Dow opened 166 points higher, the gain expanded to 495 points, reaching a high of 41,207 points. The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.28%, and the Nasdaq once rose 1.83%.

At the close of the U.S. market, the Dow rose 462 points, or 1.14%, to 41,175 points; the S&P 500 rose 63 points, or 1.15%, to 5,634 points; the Nasdaq rose 258 points, or 1.47%, to 17,877 points.

Last week, the Dow gained 1.27%, the S&P 500 rose 1.45%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%.

The U.S. dollar exchange rate plummeted, with the U.S. dollar index falling as much as 0.9% to 100.6; the British pound once rose 1.06% to $1.323; the Euro also rose 0.82% to $1.1204; the Japanese yen rebounded as much as 1.54% to 144.05 per dollar.

The Hang Seng Index opened 119 points lower at 17,521 points, and then fell 147 points to 17,493 points. It fell 28 points or 0.16% for the whole day to 17,612 points. It rose 181 points or 1.04% for the whole week; the technology index fell 39 points or 1.04%. 1.13%, reported at 3,468 points. Main board turnover was HK$78.7 billion.

The recent performance of Hong Kong stock companies has been mixed, and the overall market has not seen any major good news. Therefore, the Hang Seng Index is expected to go wild this week, fluctuating between 17,300 and 18,000 points. The market's weak trading volume reflects the sluggish market conditions. Even if the Hang Seng Index returns to the 17,000 level, investors' enthusiasm has not returned. It is expected that the trading volume will continue to be sluggish and will take time to gradually improve.

European stock markets rose across the board, with British, French and German stocks closing up 0.48%, 0.7% and 0.76% respectively.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, indicating that it was time to adjust policies to boost the job market, and strongly hinted at starting to cut interest rates in September. Analysts pointed out that Powell did not describe the pace of interest rate cuts in progressive terms, which means that more aggressive interest rate cuts are not ruled out. Stimulated by the remarks, U.S. stocks surged, with the three major indexes all closing up more than 1%. After the Dow opened 166 points higher, the gain expanded to 495 points, reaching a high of 41,207 points. The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.28%, and the Nasdaq once rose 1.83%.

At the close of the U.S. market, the Dow rose 462 points, or 1.14%, to 41,175 points; the S&P 500 rose 63 points, or 1.15%, to 5,634 points; the Nasdaq rose 258 points, or 1.47%, to 17,877 points.

Last week, the Dow gained 1.27%, the S&P 500 rose 1.45%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%.

The U.S. dollar exchange rate plummeted, with the U.S. dollar index falling as much as 0.9% to 100.6; the British pound once rose 1.06% to $1.323; the Euro also rose 0.82% to $1.1204; the Japanese yen rebounded as much as 1.54% to 144.05 per dollar.

[radioshiga]

Powell sinaliza cortes nas taxas de juros dos EUA

Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Estados Unidos, 24 de agosto de 2024 – Agência Reuters – O presidente do Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, anunciou hoje que a economia americana virou uma página na luta contra a inflação e que os formuladores de política monetária começarão a cortar as taxas de juros em breve. Durante seu discurso no Simpósio Econômico anual de Jackson Hole, Powell declarou: “Chegou o…

[digicloudm]

Past rate cuts indicate potential crypto bull market catalyst — 21Shares

Speaking at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent his strongest signal yet that interest rate cuts are on the immediate horizon. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rallied past $63,000 on the news, and analysts think further gains are expected when the Fed begins cutting rates. Leena ElDeeb, a researcher at exchange-traded product issuer 21Shares,…