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vierschanzentournee · 4 years ago

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Ski Jumping Survey 2020/21 - The Results

So, 2020/21 was… a season. It’s certainly had its ups and downs, but I’m grateful that we were able to have the majority of a season, including the world championships, despite whatever the hell has been going on the in the wider world!

Luckily, there’s no reason that coronavirus should have an impact on my third end-of-season survey — in fact, I got an absolutely awesome 103 responses this year! For reference, last year I got 68, and the year before that I got 66. I don’t know whether my survey just reached more people this year, or whether the ski jumping family on Tumblr has grown, but either way I’m super happy.

The results for overall favourite jumpers were scored the same way as usual: a vote for favourite was worth 3 points, a vote for second favourite was worth 2, and a vote for third favourite was worth 1. The jumpers were ranked based on their total number of points, which meant that the most popular World Cup ski jumpers this year were…

Maren Lundby & Daniel-André Tande

I always knew this season would be an interesting one for my survey (...and yes, I do start thinking about it quite a bit in advance), because the male winner of the previous two years, Stephan Leyhe, wouldn’t be an option due to his injury. Daniel, however, wasn’t a completely unexpected winner — he came second to Stephan last year. I do wonder whether Daniel got an extra little boost because of his terrible fall in Planica at the end of the season, which meant he was very much at the forefront of everyone’s minds, but I’ve got no way to confirm or deny that! The full results for the men are below - if two jumpers had the same number of points, ranking was based on who had the highest number of votes for favourite (if that was identical, it then went down to who had the highest number of votes for second favourite). If two jumpers share a ranking, it means they had the exact same distribution of votes.

1. Tande (78 points)

2. Stoch (57)

3. Geiger (57)

4. Granerud (51)

5. Eisenbichler (38)

6. Boyd-Clowes (31)

7. Schlierenzauer (30)

8. P Prevc (27)

9. Lindvik (26)

10. Wellinger (22)

11. R Kobayashi (18)

12. Stekala (16)

13. D Prevc (15)

14. Y Sato (15)

15. Lanisek (12)

16. Pavlovcic (12)

17. Freund (10)

18. Freitag (8)

19. Hayboeck (8)

20. Wolny (7)

21. Aalto (7)

22. Nakamura (6)

23. D Huber (6)

24. Hamann (6)

25. Kubacki & Kraft (5)

26. Schmid (5)

27. Johansson (5)

28. C Prevc & Jelar & Semenic (4)

29. Fettner (4)

30. Kot (3)

31. Klimov (3)

32. Paschke (2)

33. Forfang (2)

34. Kytosaho & Aigro & Markeng & Aschenwald (1)

Karl Geiger defends his third place from last year, while Kamil Stoch jumps a few places from 5th to second (perhaps courtesy of his third Four Hills victory this year?). Obviously, the biggest winner here is Halvor Egner Granerud, who has gone from only 2 points last year (when he struggled immensely in the World Cup and finished with only a few points) to finishing fourth with 8.28% of the vote (Tande had 12.66%, while Stoch and Geiger had 9.25% each). Others who have moved up include Eisenbichler (from 10th to 5th) and Stekala (who I believe did not compete in the World Cup last year and so wasn’t available as an option, but has clearly won a lot of hearts this season). Conversely, there are also a few who seem to have lost out — Marius Lindvik fell from 4th place to 9th, while Andreas Wellinger, who wasn’t an option last year due to his injury but dominated the non-World Cup vote, could only manage 10th in comparison to his second place in 2019.

The women saw another season of dominance from Maren Lundby in this survey, although not so much on the hill. The full results for the women are:

1. Lundby (103 points)

2. Takanashi (85)

3. Kramer (62)

4. Althaus (57)

5. Kriznar (52)

6. Opseth (50)

7. Freitag (19)

8. Klinec & Pinkelnig (15)

9. Vogt (13)

10. Hoelzl (13)

11. Rogelj (12)

12. Iraschko-Stolz (11)

13. Voros (11)

14. Rupprecht (9)

15. Karpiel (8)

16. Bjoerseth (7)

17. Pagnier (6)

18. Twardosz (4)

19. Rajda (4)

20. Avvakumova & Stroem & Haralambie (3)

21. Maruyama (2)

22. L Malsiner & Strate (2)

23. Kvandal & Ito & Eder & Seyfarth & Iwabuchi & Brecl (1)

Although Lundby has secured the win yet again, her share of the vote is a little lower this time at 16.74%, compared to 21.27% in 2020. Sara Takanashi has overtaken Katharina Althaus for second place, but undoubtedly the highest climber is Sara Marita Kramer, who received no votes at all last year (despite ranking 9th in the overall World Cup), but this year won 10.06% of the women’s vote. Many other results were largely stable — Kriznar, Opseth, and Freitag are in the same area of the rankings as they were last year — but Ema Klinec made some gains, moving up from 15th to 8th.

The votes for favourite teams were simply added up, and the team with the most votes won. For the men, the rankings were:

1. Norway (34 votes)

2. Poland & Germany (23)

3. Slovenia (9)

4. Austria (7)

5. Japan (4)

6. Finland (1)

7. France (1)

Interestingly, the Norwegians have overtaken the Germans — possibly this has something to do with the Germans essentially losing their two most popular jumpers, Wellinger and Leyhe, while the Norwegians saw excellent results from Halvor Egner Granerud. Poland have also overtaken Slovenia, by a significant margin, which I’m not entirely sure I can explain!

For the women, the rankings were:

1. Norway (28 votes)

2. Slovenia (24)

3. Germany (19)

4. Austria (12)

5. Japan (9)

6. Poland (3)

7. Russia (2)

8. France (1)

Again, Norway have taken the lead from Germany. Slovenia have jumped from fourth to second, leapfrogging both Austria and Germany, while Japan are steadily catching up to Austria too. 2020/21 was a strong season for the Slovenian women on the whole, with Nika Kriznar winning the overall and Ema Klinec becoming a world champion, which perhaps explains why they’ve been on people’s minds more often.

The vote for favourite male athlete who didn’t compete in the World Cup this season wasn’t actually quite as much of a slaughter as I’d thought it would be — the winner was exactly who you think it is, but others mounted a strong challenge!

1. Leyhe (29 votes)

2. Fannemel (12)

3. Gangnes (9)

4. Bickner (8)

5. Morgenstern (6)

6. Kasai (5)

7. Pedersen & Peier (3)

8. Hautamaki (2)

9. Stjernen & Schmitt & Ahonen & Malysz & Raimund & S Huber & Larinto & Hannawald & Descombes Sevoie & Kranjec & Aune & Hilde (1)

There was a far greater variety of answers this year, probably thanks to the much larger sample size - so while roughly a third of respondents were still missing Stephan, plenty of people also found room in their hearts for long-time absentees like Fannemel, recent retirees like Gangnes and Kranjec, those relegated to the Continental Cup or below like Kasai and Pedersen, or those who have long since retired but whom we still miss, like Morgenstern, Schmitt, and Malysz.

The same question didn’t get a huge amount of responses for the women:

1. Hendrickson (8 votes)

2. Seifreidsberger (3)

3. N Prevc & Wuerth (2)

4. Sagen & Straub & Van & Iakovleva & M Malsiner (1)

Sarah Hendrickson, one of the first legends of women’s ski jumping who announced her retirement at the end of this season, was at the front of many respondents’ minds — others were looking towards the future with Nika Prevc, the younger sister of Peter, Cene, and Domen.

It’s a little bit difficult to compare the results for favourite tournament each year, as 2 out of the 3 years I’ve run the survey have seen the cancellation of various tournaments. The one consistent, however, has been the Four Hills Tournament, which still remains the favourite of most of the fanbase:

1. Four Hills Tournament (75 votes)

2. Planica7 (14)

3. Willingen Six (13)

I didn’t ask about favourite podiums this year, as the headache it caused me last year was not worth repeating, no matter how interesting the comparisons might be!

One of my favourite elements of this survey is the predictions. The most popular predictions for the winners of season 19/20 were correct; the predictions for 20/21, however, were much less accurate — no one at all saw Granerud coming, and only one person correctly predicted that Nika Kriznar would win the women’s World Cup. The most popular predictions to win this season were Geiger (who finished 6th, after a busy season which involved catching Covid-19, welcoming a baby daughter, and winning a variety of ski flying and world championship medals) and Lundby (who finished 8th, struggling to find her best form in early World Cup competitions but hitting a groove towards the end of the season and winning several world championship medals). Inspired by this rather topsy-turvy season, we’ve got a wide variety of predictions for next year:

1. Geiger (29 votes)

2. R Kobayashi (17)

3. Eisenbichler (12)

4. Lanisek (8)

5. Pavlovcic (5)

6. Lindvik (5)

7. Stoch & Granerud & D Huber (4)

8. D Prevc (3)

9. Boyd-Clowes (2)

10. Y Sato & Zajc & Fannemel & P Prevc & Schlierenzauer & Kubacki (1)

Interestingly, not many people seem to think Granerud can do it twice in a row — this certainly fits the pattern we’ve seen over the past few decades, with the last male jumper to win two consecutive titles being Janne Ahonen in 2003/04 and 2004/05. Despite his failure to deliver on the overall title this year, Karl Geiger has again received a vote of confidence, while his teammate Eisenbichler is being seriously considered for the title for the first time. There’s also a lot of support here for jumpers who haven’t even had a World Cup victory: Lanisek, Pavlovcik, Huber, and Boyd-Clowes have never won a competition. There are a few other long shots here too, considering that Fannemel has been out for three consecutive seasons (and isn’t even confirmed to be jumping next season), and Schlierenzauer finished 65th in the World Cup this season (although it’s of course worth noting that Granerud was 61st last season, and we all know that Gregor knows how to win!)

There’s far less variety to be found among the women:

1. Kramer (49 votes)

2. Takanashi (13)

3. Lundby (11)

4. Opseth (6)

5. Kriznar (3)

6. Klinec (2)

Again, not many people think Kriznar can do it twice in a row — instead, all eyes are on Sara Marita Kramer, who came within touching distance of the crystal globe this year but was stymied by various cancelled competitions. This is the first year that Lundby hasn’t been the fandom’s top prediction, and it seems that when it rains for her, it pours, because she’s not even the second choice. That title goes to Sara Takanashi, who hasn’t won an overall title since 2016/17 but who finished second to Kriznar this season.

Sadly, only one of the jumpers tipped for a first victory last year actually managed to achieve one this season — Nika Kriznar. Many of the other favourite picks, such as Constantin Schmid, Philipp Aschenwald, and Ziga Jelar instead suffered something of a downturn in form, while others like Anze Lanisek and Silje Opseth have performed well, but not quite well enough for a win. This year’s votes are:

1. Lanisek (21 votes)

2. Stekala (20)

3. Pavlovcic (17)

4. Opseth (9)

5. Boyd-Clowes (6)

6. Schmid (3)

7. Bjoerseth (2)

8. Jelar & Nakamura & C Prevc & Pedersen (1)

Towards the end of the season, Pavlovcic in particular seemed to be knocking on the door of victory; Lanisek was a consistent top 10 finisher; and Stekala achieved his very first podium. It’ll be interesting to see where these jumpers go next year, and I hope that it’s not quite as much of a curse as it was last year!

As ever, the final part of the survey was focused on demographics — who are the ski jumping family?

According to this year’s survey, the average ski jumping fan on Tumblr is 21.6 years old, a German-speaker who is from and lives in Germany, and has been watching ski jumping for slightly over 7 years!

I put together charts showing the data collected about respondents’ country of origin, country of residence, age, languages, and time watching ski jumping:

So, all there’s left to do now is thank everyone who took the survey for their invaluable contributions to “science” — thank you to @telemarcs @queen-maren @na-woke-i-nakamura @damn-d4niel @louddreaming @skiijumpingg @hill-record @june-skijumping @ificouldflyhigh @flautist10 @blueplastichairbrush @vixmise @skijumping-is-my-aesthetics @startgate13 @lewanarta @oneoutof @sportschaos @sparflamme @anagraves @turquoiseheart1 @jumpingtodreams @entropuff @paringeverywhere @omi-om @blueberryfriday @rpntws @jokkeblobfish @reindeersonmytshirt @ski-jumper-stan @cryingismyonlyhobby @itsloveit @mlledevoltaire @prinshoppmarius @skiijumpinng @czarnewino @ski-schlieri @badlandings @one-more-jump @ilovenearlyeverything @iliketheusual @lipasworld @jensontodd @scandinavianbyheartt @ryoyuftw @sarcasticlilkid @moon-ascendant @eksperimentgaj @damnconfused @flegm-a @witchsdog @byeseefeld @stephanleyhes @anttiaaltostan @magioghvitetekopper @merlex93, the person who gave me an Instagram username when asked for a Tumblr username, and, last but not least, the person who replied “wouldnt you like to know weatherboy” when asked for a URL. I will never know who you are, but I love you.

#ski jumping #survey 20/21 #apologies to the people whose tag didn't work - tumblr does that and i have #no idea why or what the logic behind it is #anyway this year i figured out how to make google sheets do maths FOR ME #so i had a far less terrible time doing it this year!#it also helped that i updated the results like every 20 responses or so rather than counting them all at the end #and also not letting people type into the 'years watching' box was a big improvement #bc youse are all so keen to share your entire life stories :/#mine: ski jumping

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sisterschildi · 6 years ago

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So, who pulled a Tande apart from Tande?

[Random stuff about ski jumping to keep me occupied during off season - 6/?]

As long as it’s still some time until SGP starts, I’m still not finished looking at the results of this past World Cup season. 😉 This time, it’s about pulling a Tande. Here’s a short reminder:

According to @gregorschlierenzauerfanpage‘s ski jumping dictionary, you say you pull a Tande “if you fucked up first but then you are going to do excellent (in) the 2nd round/time”

So I had a look at the results (ranking, not points or distance) from first and second rounds of the individual competitions (as for the Ski Flying World Championships in Oberstdorf: third round) and asked myself these questions:

What was the biggest Tande that was pulled in each competition?

What was the most superb Tande a jumper pulled all season?

What was the biggest Tande that was pulled all season to win a competition?

Who pulled the reverse Tande most often? Most drastically?

Who had the most constant ranking?

In conclusion: Is Daniel-André Tande the only one who knows how to pull a Tande?

This is what I found out.* (I also think a jumper’s average “Tande score” should be shown just as their PB 😎).

The biggest Tande and reverse Tande of each competition:

[The bigger the negative number, the bigger the Tande. The bigger the positive number, the bigger the reverse Tande.]

Wisła (19.11.2017): Daniel Huber -10 from 16 to 6 / Maciej Kot +12 from 7 to 19 Tande score for comparison: -8 from 13 to 5

Ruka (26.11.2017): Stefan Kraft -13 from 26 to 13 / Tilen Bartol +14 from 15 to 29 Tande score: +1 from 3 to 4

Nizhny Tagil (02.12.2017): Andreas Wellinger -17 from 21 to 4 / Pius Paschke +12 from 5 to 17 Tande score: =0 from 2 to 2

Nizhny Tagil (03.12.2017): Daniel-André Tande -12 from 17 to 5 & Robert Johansson -12 from 23 to 11 / William Rhoads +13 from 16 to 29

Engelberg (16.12.2017): Andreas Wellinger -15 from 21 to 6 / Timi Zajc +9 from 15 to 24 Tande score: -8 from 12 to 4

Engelberg (17.12.2017): Daniel-André Tande -11 from 21 to 10 / Junshirō Kobayashi +6 from 2 to 8

Oberstdorf (30.12.2017): Johann André Forfang -18 from 25 to 7 / Piotr Zyła +16 from 9 to 25 Tande score: -7 from 27 to 20

Garmisch-Partenkirchen (01.01.2018): Daniel-André Tande -10 from 25 to 15 / David Siegel +8 from 20 to 28 & Gregor Schlierenzauer +8 from 11 to 19

Innsbruck (04.01.2018): Andreas Stjernen -12 from 16 to 4 / Noriaki Kasai +9 from 9 to 18 Tande score: =0 (from 2 to 2)

Bischofshofen (06.01.2018): Žiga Jelar -8 from 29 to 21 / Timi Zajc +13 from 14 to 27 Tande score: -1 from 13 to 12

Tauplitz/Bad Mitterndorf (SF, 13.01.2018): Anders Fannemel -14 from 30 to 16 / Halvor Egner Granerud +4 from 21 to 25 Tande score: -5 from 7 to 2

Oberstdorf (SF WC, 20.01.2018): Johann André Forfang -5 from 13 to 8 & Markus Eisenbichler -5 from 16 to 11 & Andreas Wellinger -5 from 12 to 7 & Andreas Stjernen -5 from 10 to 5 / Noriaki Kasai +19 from 6 to 25 Tande score: =0 (from 1 to 1)

Zakopane (28.01.2018): Karl Geiger -9 from 30 to 21 / Anders Fannemel +11 from 18 to 29 & Constantin Schmid -11 from 6 to 17 Tande score: - (didn’t compete)

Willingen (03.02.2018): Johann André Forfang -11 from 18 to 7 / Timi Zajc +8 from 9 to 17 Tande score: -3 from 4 to 1

Willingen (04.02.2018): Stefan Hula -11 from 23 to 12 / Halvor Egner Granerud +12 from 7 to 19 Tande score: -9 from 14 to 5

PyeongChang (OWG, 10.02.2018): Peter Prevc -12 from 24 to 12 / Denis Kornilov +8 from 16 to 24 & Mackenzie Boyd-Clowes +8 from 18 to 26 Tande score: -7 from 13 to 6

PyeongChang (OWG, 17.02.2018): Daniel-André Tande -11 from 15 to 4 / Stefan Kraft +5 from 13 to 18

Lahti (04.03.2018): Daniel-André Tande -8 from 26 to 18 / Constantin Schmid + 7 from 20 to 27

Oslo (11.03.2018): Mackenzie Boyd-Clowes -12 from 27 to 15 / Tilen Bartol +24 from 4 to 28 Tande score: -7 from 8 to 1

Lillehammer (13.03.2018): Markus Eisenbichler -10 from 26 to 16 / Junshirō Kobayashi +6 from 11 to 17 & Stefan Hula +6 from 3 to 9 Tande score: 2 from 8 to 10

Trondheim (15.03.2018): Markus Eisenbichler -9 from 19 to 10 / Stephan Leyhe +8 from 12 to 20 Tande score: -8 from 23 to 15

Vikersund (SF, 18.03.2018): Peter Prevc -12 from 26 to 14 / Kevin Bickner +11 from 19 to 30 Tande score: =0 from 3 to 3

Planica (23.03.2018): Robert Kranjec -10 from 20 to 10 / Halvor Egner Granerud +10 from 18 to 28 Tande score: - (didn’t compete)

Planica (25.03.2018): Richard Freitag -5 from 11 to 6 & Andreas Stjernen -5 from 10 to 5 / Junshirō Kobayashi +5 from 5 to 10 Tande score: +1 from 2 to 3

IN CONCLUSION:

What was the most superb Tande a jumper pulled all season?

Johann André Forfang 🇳🇴 from rank 25 to 7 (-18) in Oberstdorf (30.12.2017)

Most drastic reverse Tande a jumper pulled all season?

Tilen Bartol 🇸🇮 in Oslo (11.03.2018) from 4 to 28 (+24)

What was the biggest Tande that was pulled all season to win a competition?

Richard Freitag 🇩🇪 in Nizhny Tagil (02.12.2017) / Daniel-André Tande 🇳🇴 in Oslo (11.03.2018), both from rank 8 to 1 (-7) .

Anže Semenič 🇸🇮 in Zakopane (28.01.2018) / Andreas Wellinger 🇩🇪 in PyeongChang (10.02.2018), both from rank 5 to 1 (-4)

Kamil Stoch 🇵🇱 in Oberstdorf (30.12.2017) / Daniel-André Tande 🇳🇴 in Willingen (03.02.2018), both from rank 4 to 1

Who pulled the biggest Tande of the competition most often?

Daniel-André Tande 🇳🇴 (5x)

Andreas Wellinger 🇩🇪, Markus Eisenbichler 🇩🇪, Johann André Forfang 🇳🇴 & Andreas Stjernen 🇳🇴 (3x each)

Peter Prevc 🇸🇮 (2x)

Who pulled the biggest reverse Tande of the competition most often?

Timi Zajc 🇸🇮, Junshirō Kobayashi 🇯🇵 & Halvor Egner Granerud 🇳🇴 (3x each)

Tilen Bartol 🇸🇮, Noriaki Kasai 🇯🇵 & Constantin Schmid 🇩🇪 (2x each)

I also looked at the average “Tande score” of each jumper, but took only into consideration those jumpers who reached the 2nd round in 12 or more (out of 24) competitions so that calculating an average value makes sense. This lead to the following results:

Who tends to be better in the second round (more likely to pull a Tande)?

Daniel-André Tande 🇳🇴 (-5,0)

Johann André Forfang 🇳🇴 (-3,6)

Andreas Wellinger 🇩🇪 (-2,8)

Markus Eisenbichler 🇩🇪 (-1,7)

Robert Johansson & Andreas Stjernen 🇳🇴 (-1,4 each)

Who tends to be worse in the second round (more likely to pull a reverse Tande)?

Jakub Wolny 🇵🇱 & Tilen Bartol 🇸🇮 (+1,8 each)

Maciej Kot 🇵🇱 (+1,6)

Dawid Kubacki (+1,3)

Who had the most constant ranking?

Jernej Damjan 🇸🇮 & Michael Hayböck 🇦🇹 (+0,1 each)

Is Daniel-André Tande the only one who knows how to pull a Tande?

No. But he’s the king of pulling a Tande because he’s the one with the best average Tande score, the one who pulled the best Tande of a competition most often and he was only 3x better in the first round than in the second round. But Forfi and Andi W. have been paying attention and he better watch out. 😉

TL;DR:

(If you made this, please tell me, so I can give proper credit. The photo is obviously from berkutschi.com.)

*If there are any mistakes, they are mine…

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