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kristannafever · 1 month ago

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Mountain Man - Eight

Kristanna Modern AU Rated: M WC: 2750

Collab with @lukin08

Chapter Index

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“My head hurts.” Anna’s muffled voice came from somewhere under the covers.

“Mine too,” Kristoff muttered, keeping his eyes shut to the light coming in from the window. While he had half a mind to disappear under his blankets with Anna, he worried that would be too presumptions despite what happened between them the night before.

“I have painkillers in the first Aid kit in my plane,” she muttered.

“And you don’t want to go get them?”

“Hell no.”

Kristoff smiled and steadied himself to move. He got up slowly, wincing as his head pounded and the room spun around. While he had some pain killers in his own first aid kit, he rarely took them and they were a decade old. Likely not as effective anymore, and if her head hurt as much as his, they would need all the help they could get.

“You’re going to get it for me, aren’t you?”

“Uh huh.”

“Oh my god you are the best.”

Kristoff shook his head, smiling wider and took to his feet slowly. He dressed in his coat and boots and opened the door. The snow was somehow still falling. He breathed in the cold mountain air deep into his lungs, instantly making him feel a touch better and clearing his head a little.

He trudged through the deep snow to where Anna’s plane was and retrieved her first aid kit. He brought back in the cabin and poured them both a glass of water from what was left in the cold kettle before shaking the pills into his hand.

He sat on the edge of the bed and waited for Anna to slowly emerge from the covers. She did so with her eyes pinched shut, wincing as she sat up.

“Here.” He offered her the cup and his open palm.

She took the pills and the water with shaky hands and popped them in her mouth, draining the cup with a greedy gulp. She handed the cup back to Kristoff and laid back down.

He took his own pills and set the empty cups on the floor and crawled back in beside her. No sooner was he settled on his back and Anna was curling up to him, throwing her hand over his stomach and nestling her head on his shoulder. He could feel her breath on his neck and he suppressed a delighted moan.

“As shitty as I feel right now, that was a lot of fun last night,” she said.

He could hear the smile on her voice. “It was,” he mused, thinking about just how much fun it was. He hadn’t laughed so much in his entire life. His smile faded to remember that the storm wasn’t going to last forever and Anna would be leaving soon.

“Hey Anna?” he started before he knew what he was doing.

“Hmmm?”

He panicked. What was he about to say anyway? Was he actually going to tell her that last night was the most fun he had ever had in his entire life? Was he going to admit that he never wanted the storm to end? That he wanted her to stay there with him forever. Was he going to tell her that she had taken his heart and he was madly in love with her?

No. He couldn’t do that. He couldn’t drag her into this life of isolation. He couldn’t crush her spirit like that. Likely couldn’t even have the chance anyway. She had mentioned how many times she would be unable to live this life.

He thought quickly. “I’ll give you another opportunity to beat me at crib again tonight,” he said, hoping that it didn’t sound as sad as it made him feel.

Anna giggled, obviously not picking up on his distress. “You’re on, mountain man.”

*****

They got out of bed in the late morning, too hungry to ignore their growling stomachs. Kristoff made them oatmeal and opened a can of peaches that he told her he saved for special occasions. Anna watched him as he made them their breakfast, chatting idly with her like it was the most natural thing in the world for him to be doing. She could not stop staring. His handsomeness was so much more apparent with the short beard. She could see his magnificent jaw line, and she imagined what he’d look like if he’d let her cut his hair shorter too. Never before in her life had she been more attracted to a man.

She thought back to that wonderful kiss. More than anything she wanted to have him kiss her again. She wanted a whole hell of a lot more than that actually. Then she realized that she would be leaving soon. She couldn’t stay, couldn’t even entertain the idea. She had family and too much back in Nome to just throw it all away.

Yet as she remembered it again, that beautiful soft and tender first kiss he had placed on her lips, she longed to be able to say fuck it and stay with Kristoff.

She pushed the thought from her mind immediately, knowing that it would only lead to heartache. Why it hurt so much she wasn’t sure. She managed to forget about the future and focus on the bowl that Kristoff had placed in front of her with a smile.

After their breakfast they both cleaned up, and Anna asked what she’d asked him so many times in the past couple of days. “So, now what?”

Kristoff looked around his cabin. “Uh, to be honest I am not feeling up to doing a lot of manual labour today. I haven’t been that drunk in my entire life.”

Anna cocked her head to the side. Did that mean he didn’t even remember the kiss? While it was seared into her mind, maybe he was one of those people that blacked out and didn’t remember anything. “Yeah, we drank a lot,” she said, not wanting to bring it up in case he really didn’t remember.

“I have some wobbly shelves in the cellar I need to fix. Some clothes that need mending. I have to deal with a couple of hides, but that will only take me about an hour. Uh, what else?”

He looked around in thought again, so innocent and pure, and Anna’s heart lurched in her chest thinking about that kiss. How utterly desperate his lips had become, like he’d been under water for a dangerously long time and was finally able to gasp for air. How it must have felt to him. And he probably didn’t even remember being so vulnerable with her.

“… tidy my shed up a bit too. Been putting that off.”

Anna realized she zoned out. “Oh yeah, sure. Put me to work.”

His head tilted to the side and he regarded her for a moment. “Where should we get started?”

“Give me your clothes and I’ll mend them while you deal with the hides. Then we can do whatever you figure next.”

He nodded, his bloodshot eyes looking at her carefully again. “Alright. Thank you.”

-------

Anna picked up the first shirt and looked at it. A plain black henley that was tattered and getting holes along the shoulders. He’d told her all the clothes needing mending were clean except for that black henley. Anna had assured him that she didn’t mind. And truly she didn’t. She imagined it on him then looked up quickly to make sure Kristoff hadn’t somehow slipped back into the cabin without her noticing. Once confirming she was indeed alone, she pulled the shirt up to her face and inhaled.

An involuntary shiver ran up her spine to smell him on the clothing. It aroused her in a way she was not at all expecting, and she set the shirt back down on the table and shook her head. Get a grip on yourself, Anna!

She threaded the needle with black thread and began mending. It was quick work and she moved onto the next shirt, and then the next. When they were all done, she started on the socks, switching the black thread for the only other colour; white.

Anna mended his socks, cringing a little at how much it would drive her crazy to step on the mending all day long. She’d tried it before. There was only one solution to socks with holes on the bottom; buy new ones. Something that Kristoff could not do whenever he wanted.

That made her sad all over again, thinking about his life as she finished the socks. Next, she moved onto his work pants, two pairs of jeans with holes in the knees and some Carhart’s. Every pair had holes in all the pockets.

After the pants the only item left was a hooded sweatshirt with the front pocket ripped on one side. It was grey, so Anna switched back to the black thread for it to be less noticeable.

When that was done, she folded all the clothes neatly and placed them back in his chest and put the henley in a small laundry basket he had sitting beside it. She turned around and surveyed the one at the end of the bed again, thinking about those photos and wanting to look at them once more. She was just about to, when the front door opened and Kristoff stepped in. His face was drained of colour.

“Kristoff! Are you okay?”

He nodded and wobbled a little as he used his feet to take off his boots. Anna rushed over and grabbed his shoulder just as he leaned far enough over that he was going to lose his balance if she wasn’t there. She braced herself as his weight fell into her.

“I need to sit down,” he mumbled.

Anna helped him over to his chair and sat him in it. Kristoff turned and placed his head in his arms on the table, taking a few slow breaths like he was going to be sick.

“Are you okay?” she asked again.

“Dizzy,” he murmured from his arms. “I think I need some water.”

“Of course.” Anna turned and grabbed a cup from the shelves above his kitchen cupboard and the cold water from the kettle on the stove, then took it over to him.

Slowly, he pulled his head up, his eyes closed. After two more deep breaths he opened them, took the glass and drank with a shaky hand. As soon as he was done, Anna took it from him and filled it again. With that downed, she filled it once more with all that was left in the kettle. After giving him back his glass, she took the kettle outside and filled it with water from the well. She filled his empty up again, then grabbed one to fill for herself.

“Thank you,” he said quietly as she took a seat on the log across from him.

“You okay?”

He nodded slowly. “Just dehydrated from all the booze,” he said, his eyes lifting to finally meet hers. “Like I said, that was the drunkest I have ever been. I’ve never been this hungover.”

“I’m sorry,” Anna said, wondering again if he really didn’t remember that kiss.

“Don’t be sorry,” he said, eyes going back down to the table. “I just need a minute. I’m pretty sure when we got up, I was still drunk, and I’m just hitting the wall now.”

“Why don’t you go lie down for a minute?”

His eyes met hers again. “How are you feeling? Are you okay?”

Anna smiled. “I feel kind of like you. Clearly not as severe. I’m okay, just sucking at life today, you know?”

He gave her a slight smile. “I could use a nap. How about you?”

She thought about being in that comfortable bed with him again and was not about to miss out on the opportunity to be close to him again. “Definitely.”

They went over to the bed and settled into it, Anna thinking again to that kiss. “How many games of crib did we even play last night?” she asked, thinking it might give some insight into if he remembered it.

“I have no idea,” he said, brining up his forearm and settling it against his eyes. “I can’t remember.”

Anna frowned, and pushed the thought of that kiss from her mind. It would do no good to keep thinking on it if she was the only one who remembered it happening.

A moment later Kristoff was snoring. As much as Anna wanted to snuggle up to him, she could not bring herself to do so. Her heart was heavy with thoughts she had no business having. Eventually she drifted off and fell into a fitful sleep.

*****

Kristoff woke slowly, blinking into the light of the cabin. His eyes hurt. Like his head. The painkillers had worn off. He looked over to where Anna was sleeping. She was facing him, as far away as she could get. He studied her face, every inch of it, every freckle, every gorgeous feature.

That kiss…

He pushed it from his mind for the hundredth time since waking up that morning. He would not, could not, hang onto that. It was like a taste of things that could be. Things that would never be. He needed to let it go for good. It was far too dangerous not to.

To his relief, Anna was completely fine not talking about it. Maybe she didn’t even remember it. Either way, they could move on as if it never happened, which was more than fine with him.

Kristoff got up slowly, getting a little dizzy again. He put his feet on the floor and hung his head between his shoulders. He felt the bed shift under him a moment later.

“You feeling any better?”

“A little yeah.” He sighed. “How about you?”

“Like a new woman.” She laughed.

-----

Anna spent the rest of the afternoon following him around and helping him here and there, talking his ear off. It was amazing how her hands worked, knowing exactly what to do without having to ask. Her independence and skill were never more apparent to him. If she ever had the desire, he had no doubt she’d be able to make this life work for her too. She had all the same instincts as him.

They had just finished with the unstable shelves in the cellar. While it was the last task that he had wanted to accomplish that day, it still didn’t feel like he’d done enough. He was feeling better and itching to get more shit done. This was the first day since he’d been living like this that he’d been lazy, and it was starting to bother him.

As soon as he had the tools back in his toolbox, he brushed the dirt off his hands and looked at Anna. She was looking down at her own hand, surveying her fingernails with a frown.

“You okay?” he asked, worried she’d injured herself somehow.

She looked up at him, quickly putting her hand back down at her side. “Oh yeah, fine. Just have to wash the dirt out from under my fingernails.”

A thought suddenly occurred to him and he was a little embarrassed it hadn’t come to him sooner. “Did you want to have a bath?”

Her eyes brightened. “A bath? That actually sounds wonderful.” Then her brows furrowed in question. “Wait, how do you even do that?”

He chuckled. “What do you think that little building by the well is?”

Anna shrugged. “Another shed.”

He laughed again. “It’s the bathhouse, silly. Despite what you may think I do wash my clothes and bathe.”

“Really? How often?” Her smirk was all play.

Shrugging one shoulder he said, “Once a week.”

She playfully scrunched up her nose. “Ew.”

“Well, to be fair it is a lot of work.”

Her light mood shifted to a touch of annoyance and she rolled her eyes. “Of course it is.”

Anger prickled him. These reminders that she thought his life was ridiculous were starting to really get under his skin. He went for the cellar ladder and ascended without a word or backwards glance in her direction.

“I’m sorry,” she called after him as soon as he stepped onto the floor.

“Nothing to be sorry about,” he said, his teeth clenched. “Just going to go get you a bath started.” He threw on his boots and slammed the door behind him.

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#Mountain Man #Cee and Edin wrote this #kristanna #kristoff #anna #kristanna modern au #I have now added the layout to Kristoff's cabin and homestead if you are curious to check those out on the chapter index page #I will very most likely post the next chapter tomorrow #it's thanksgiving weekend up here in Canada and we are just having a quiet long weekend at home #Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Canadians!

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chocoboswark · 7 years ago

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Sometimes, You Just Gotta Talk

So, I’m talking.

Lately, my current relationship - a polyamorous one with one male and one other female, hasn’t been going so well. Let me start from the beginning:

My boyfriend was already dating the female when we started dating on August 7, 2016. I knew about Her since day 1.

Fast forward to mid-September. I found out I was pregnant while they were on a 2-week trip to Ibiza. He and I started talking more seriously about our relationship. I mentioned that I would run away with him if he asked. Little did I know that She had read that message on his phone while he wasn’t in the room.

Fast forward to October. I went to my first OB/GYN appointment, and found out that I was miscarrying. This was my third miscarriage in a year. He was devastated. As hard as it was for me to go through this, yet again, it was hard for Him too. It was His child as much as mine, and he loved his child from the moment I told him I was pregnant. We went to Canada for my early birthday celebration. She went with us. We were broke, so we stayed for one night.

Fast forward to November. I went to Georgia to be in my best friend’s wedding, and while I was there, I realized just how much I loved Him, and how much She hated me. I got back, and had my 20th birthday, and we - the three of us - celebrated it together. I got left at home for Thanksgiving. Left. At. Home. Because She got SUPER jealous that He wanted to spend Thanksgiving with me and his family and not Her and his family.

Fast forward to December. We spent Christmas with His family, even though He wanted just me to spend it with him and his family.

Fast forward a whole bunch to May. We surprised Him by taking him to Seattle for his birthday weekend, and taking him to a Trance fest. We spent one weekend. She starts getting abusive not just towards Him, but towards me too. She’s hit me twice in one week, and if she hits me again, I’m calling the cops and kicking her out. My name is one the lease - Hers isn’t.

Fast forward to tonight - June 1, 2017. They left for Canada, and left me at home, because I couldn’t afford the trip. He couldn’t afford the trip either, but She DEMANDED this trip for her birthday. She’s getting not one, but THREE nights on her trip, a beer fest, AND they’re stopping in Seattle the night before they come home to see ONE OF MY FAVORITE DJS. So, not only is she getting THREE nights, but TWO locations, and TWO events.

She’s not polyamorous, no matter how much she claims to be. She has a habit of driving people out of His life. She does petty shit like deep cleaning the house when She thinks she’s on His good side, and so I don’t have anything to clean, so I get yelled at for not helping out around the house.

She’s been trying to kick me out since she found out I was pregnant, and now, she’s being abusive, and demanding, and I can’t take it anymore. I’m hoping to move out, and get my own place with a friend, by the beginning of August. Just means I have to put up with her shit for two more months.

It’s been a really hard month. I’ve turned a blind eye to Her abuse for so long. She’s trying to tear me away from Him, and it really fucking hurts.

I’m a Southerner in the PNW. I was raised to want to marry and settle down young. I’m 20. I’m only the 2nd woman in my family to be unmarried at 20 - the other is my mother’s youngest sister, who’s in her 30′s.

I have a nasty pattern of stomping on the puzzle pieces, trying to force them to fit, no matter how different they are. I’m a great girlfriend. I’m not domestic, but I was raised to be a good wife, and life partner. I’m just a shitty roommate, and in no way domestic, even though I want to raise a family before I’m 25.

I’ve got 2 more nights, and 3 more days, of the house feeling empty. Thankfully, our 3 cats are here, but it’s just not the same. Here’s to not being able to sleep, and to the house being way too quiet and lonely.

Sorry about the rant. Sometimes, you just gotta talk.

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melindarowens · 7 years ago

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Will Economic Data Move Markets This Week? – Weekly CapitalistHQ.com

Good morning,

What’s in this week’s Report:

Why Economic Data This Week Is So Important

Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are modestly higher in quiet, holiday-like trading as global manufacturing PMIs largely met estimates.

Chinese economic data continued to come in better than expected as the Ciaxin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 vs. (E) 49.8. In Europe, the EU June Manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations while the UK number fell short (54.3 vs. (E) 56.3).

The net effect of these June PMIs is that last week’s global reflation trade is taking a break this morning as the PMIs reflect what was already priced into markets. So, we’re seeing modest weakness in the euro (down -.4%) and a bounce in the dollar. Importantly, though, these numbers do not undermine the reflation trade from last week, it’s just that we’ll need stronger numbers in the short term to continue last week’s momentum.

Looking at US markets, today the two big numbers are the June ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 55.1) and June Auto Sales (E: 16.6M). But, while those are important numbers, today will feel a lot like the trading day after Thanksgiving, given tomorrow’s July 4th holiday. As a reminder, US stock markets close at 1:00 p.m. EST.

So, barring a major surprise from the PMI or auto sales, I’d expect quiet trading today, although today’s data is still important for markets beyond the next 24 hours.

Everyone have a happy and safe 4th of July.

CapitalistHQ.com

Market

Level

Change

% Change

S&P 500 Futures

2,432.00

11.00

0.45%

U.S. Dollar (DXY)

95.86

0.4390

0.46%

Gold

1,226.60

-15.80

-1.27%

WTI

46.44

0.40

0.87%

10 Year

2.30%

0.01

0.35%

Stocks

This Week

Economic data and Fed speak will be the focus of this holiday-shortened week. The jobs report Friday, PMIs today and Thursday, and Fed minutes Wednesday will be the key market-moving events. And given this is a very popular vacation week and therefore volumes and activity will be subdued, the potential for some significant volatility is there if the data surprises either way.

Last Week (Needed Context as We Start a New Week)

Stocks declined modestly, and volatility returned last week as a coordinated, “not-dovish” message by central banks sent global bond yields surging. The S&P 500 declined 0.61% on the week.

Last week started quietly, as markets were flat despite some tech weakness and underwhelming economic data (Durable Goods specifically). But Tuesday, volatility showed up as the S&P 500 fell 0.8% on a combination of 1) Hawkish comments by ECB President Draghi, 2) Another failed healthcare vote (that further endangers tax cuts) and 3) Cautious comments by Fed Governor Williams, who said stocks were running, “On fumes.”

Yet stocks again showed resilience as markets bounced back Wednesday despite the lack of a catalyst. Dip buying after a decline at the open fed on itself, and the S&P 500 recouped basically all of Tuesday’s losses, rising 0.81%. The whipsaw continued Thursday, as hotter-than-expected German CPI caused the reflation trade to re-engage, and US stocks fell sharply (although they did bounce on key support), and the S&P 500 closed down 0.8%, but well off the lows.

On Friday, stocks rebounded slightly, helped by a benign Core PCE Price Index as the reflation trade took a breather ahead of the holiday weekend.

Your Need to Know

The “reflation rotation” was the major theme from an internals and sector standpoint last week, and evidence of that was visible in the index and sector trade. The Russell 2000 actually outperformed, as it was flat on the week (remember, small caps outperform in a reflationary environment). Meanwhile the Nasdaq plunged 2%, badly underperforming the S&P 500. Again, the tech sector, which is dominated by super-cap tech and internet companies, has taken on almost a consumer staples-like trading posture, as the trends in tech are viewed to be non-cyclical. To boot, “long tech” is a very crowded trade, and we’re seeing tech become the funding source for money that’s rotating into more cyclical sectors.

From a sector standpoint, there also was evidence of the reflation trade. Banks surged 4.4% on higher bond yields while defensive sectors dropped (utilities fell 2.4%, consumer staples fell 1%). Again, the YTD tech sector outperformers fell sharply (semiconductors sank 5% while internet names fell 3.4%). Going forward, the tech sector remains our major focus. The Nasdaq broadly, and FDN and SOXX are momentum indicators we are watching. And while FDN and Nasdaq both held important support levels, they remain dangerously close to tracing out “lower lows” from the mid-June break. Of greater concern is that SOXX hit a new low, which we take as a negative for broad market momentum.

More directly, the leadership sectors for 2017 (tech, semis, FDN, utilities) all are breaking down, but we’re not seeing enough strength in cyclicals to take on the leadership load. And, the longer this goes on, the more vulnerable the market will be to a pullback.

Bottom Line

It is the peak of summer vacation season, but there are potentially important shifts occurring in the markets that could substantially change sector performance for the balance of 2017, and also cause the first pullback in stocks since February 2016. Specifically, over the past three weeks, global central banks (Fed, BOE, ECB, Chinese Central Bank, even the Bank of Canada) have voiced a consistent desire to eventually reduce monetary accommodation, and they’ve simultaneously voiced confidence in the global economy and global inflation trends despite underwhelming data.

This is in polar opposite to what we’ve all become accustomed to from central banks, as for the past eight years any hint of deflation or slowing growth was met by a coordinated, dovish response from global central banks. Now, the opposite has occurred.

Given this change, the reflation trade that powered stocks higher in late ’16 tried to reassert itself in June. Global bond yields rose, and safe-haven sectors lagged. But, the broad markets didn’t rally like they did in late ’16, and the reason is economic growth. In late ’16, economic growth was accelerating, but now, it is not.

So, here is the practical takeaway. With central banks no longer reacting perma-dovishly, the reflation trade will assert itself on a sector level (and that has implications for sector performance as the year-to-date outperformers could seriously lag in 2H ’17, and vice-versa).

Until economic data starts to get better and show actual acceleration, this reflation trade won’t be enough to power stocks higher. If anything, it will increase downward pressure on markets as bank outperformance won’t be enough, by itself, to offset the decline in tech and defensive sectors.

This set up is exactly why this week has become very important. If the ISM PMIs and jobs report are better than expected, we could see a broad reflation trade reassert itself, and that means markets rally. Conversely, if the data underwhelms then the increase of a pullback in stocks will rise, materially.

From an exposure/allocation standpoint, we continue to hold current positions and allocations, as we think it’s very important to get confirmation of which reflation we’re going to see… one on the sector level, or one in the broad market.

Most of our current tactical holdings (healthcare via XLV/IHF/IBB, Europe via HEDJ and EZU, cybersecurity via HACK, emerging markets via IEMG) are pretty well insulated from any material negative from this potential rotation. The exception is FDN, which will continue to underperform if this rotation continues. We are watching that position carefully, and are prepared to exit if this sector rotation looks like it’s taking hold.

Finally, late last week we bought EUFN, as we think higher yields in Europe along with better growth will help European financials outperform (more on this in the Special Reports and Editorial section below). With regards to US banks, we want more clarity on the economic data and from the Fed (via Fed minutes) before allocating more capital to KRE or KBE.

Bottom line, we are on the cusp of a potentially significant turn in markets, and despite the fact that it’s peak summer vacation time, the economic data this week could go a long way to telling us how to be positioned for the second half of 2017.

Economic Data (What You Need to Know in Plain English)

Need to Know Econ from Last Week

As mentioned, the most important economic event of last week was the advancement of the coordinated, confident message from global central banks as they now are looking past temporary weakness in inflation and economic data. Unfortunately, looking at the economic data last week, it didn’t confirm a reflation is underway, and going forward economic data (both inflation and growth) need to get better to support a rally in stocks.

The big number from last week was the Core PCE Price Index, and it met low expectations. Headline PCE Price Index dipped to -1.1% in May, while Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) rose to 0.1%, and 1.4% yoy. That’s a long way from the stated 2.0% goal, and down sharply from the 1.7% in April. But, the market largely ignored the numbers because the Fed has clearly stated that low inflation stats are not a problem at this point, and they will not dissuade the Fed from continuing to tighten monetary policy in the coming months.

Turning to the rest of last week’s data, it was similarly underwhelming. Durable Goods was the only other notable number, and it missed estimates. The key, “New Orders for Non-Defense Capital Good Ex-Aircraft” number fell to -0.2% vs. (E) 0.5%, and April data was revised lower. So, at least through May, business spending and investment isn’t going to spur an economic acceleration in Q2.

It was a different story internationally. Inflation and economic data in Europe (and China via their June May manufacturing PMI) did beat estimates, and that helped fuel a legitimate reflation trade in Europe that saw European and British bond yields surge higher. Specifically, German CPI, EU HICP and consumer confidence all beat expectations, and the idea that European growth is starting to accelerate is taking hold. Last week, that hit European stocks short term, but it’s a longer-term positive for the region and its ETFs.

Important Economic Data This Week

Due to the July Fourth holiday tomorrow, this week is a bit disjointed, but here is the rundown. First, it’s jobs week, so we get the official jobs report Friday, and ADP and claims on Thursday. But given the Fed’s hawkishness, the set up for this report is a bit different, and over the medium term, the market needs a strong number.

Beyond the jobs report, the next most important event this week is the Fed minutes, which come Wednesday. The market is digesting this new found hawkishness from the Fed, and the minutes will give us more color into the current Fed discussion—and the implications on bond yields could be substantial.

Finally, from a domestic and global standpoint, we get the final June manufacturing and composite PMIs. The global numbers manufacturing PMIs are already out, while the US manufacturing PMI comes later this morning.

Then on Wednesday we get the global composite PMIs, and on Thursday the US Non-Manufacturing PMI. The importance of these numbers is obvious. With global central banks expressing more confidence in economic resilience, the data needs to confirm that confidence. Bottom line, this week’s data will help determine whether this reflation trade stays on the sector level, or whether it broadens out to help push the entire market higher.

Commodities, Currencies & Bonds

In Commodities, there were several notable developments in the space last week, as crude oil futures turned higher after a multi-week sell-off while copper broke out of a tight trading range… both of which are encouraging developments for the reflation trade. Meanwhile, gold finished the week lower after a “flash crash” took futures to six-week lows on Monday. The commodity ETF, DBC, rose 4.56% on the week.

In the energy space, WTI crude oil futures had a weekly gain of 7.32% after falling for five weeks prior. The catalyst for the rally was the weekly EIA report, which showed a substantial drop in Lower 48 oil production of -55K b/d. The two bearish influences on the oil market this year have been declining confidence in the efficacy of OPEC policy, and rising US oil production. So, with the trend of rising US oil output pulling back (even though it was largely due to adverse weather in the gulf) the market became a little “less bearish” and rallied into the end of the week.

Bottom line, for now OPEC outlook remains a constant, and that’s bearish for the market as their policies are not having the desired effect on prices. If last week’s significant pullback in output turns out to be a one off, the oil market will continue to trade heavily (more likely). If output has topped for the year (less likely) then oil could very well form a bottom in the low-to-mid $40s this summer.

Turning to the metals, gold futures fell 1.30% on the week. Looking ahead, gold remains in a corrective pullback, but the 2017 trend remains bullish. We need to see either a pick-up in inflation (bullish gold), or a continued rebound in interest rates (bearish gold) for gold to break materially away from the mid $1200s. Copper rallied 3.10% to new Q2 highs last week, which was encouraging. For most of the year, copper has underperformed, and that was a concern to us. Now that copper is in “rally mode” again, one headwind is being removed for stocks, and the argument for the reflation/Trump trade has becoming incrementally stronger.

Looking at Currencies and Bonds, global economic reflation was the theme last week, as global bond yields and currencies surged while the dollar fell to fresh 2017 lows. The Dollar Index declined 1.6%.

The move in global bond yields was easily the biggest story for markets last week. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 14 basis points on the week, and closed right on the March downtrend at 2.28%. The No. 1 question as we start this week is whether the economic data will get the 10-year yield to punch through that downtrend. If so, that will mean likely changes for tactical allocations.

But notably, the 10-year yield didn’t surge because of US data, it surged because of European and UK data, and central bank speak. The 10-year German bund yield rose 13 basis points, and 10-year Gilt (UK bonds) yields rose a shocking 23 basis points. So, it was a global increase in yields last week, as markets digested the coordinated “not-dovish” central bank speak. This week the key will be whether economic data can extend these rallies, and potentially change the market set up.

Looking at currencies, the euro and pound were the big outperformers, as you’d guess given last week’s events. The euro rose almost 2% vs. the dollar and hit a fresh 52-week high above 1.14 while the pound rose 1% and traded above 1.30. Elsewhere in the currency markets, the yen weakened as economic data there slightly underwhelmed while the commodity currencies rose to multi-month highs vs. the dollar. Better Chinese economic data and higher commodities (oil, metals) helped push the commodity currencies higher.

Bottom line, the hawkish turn by the ECB and BOE caught markets off guard, and the dollar got hammered. However, longer term, the outlook for the dollar remains dependent on economic data. If the data rebounds, like the Fed expects, then the dollar is a bargain here, because the Fed will be much more aggressive tightening policy than any other major central bank. Until economic data decidedly turns for the worse, we’re not abandoning our longer-term, positive dollar stance.

Special Reports and Editorial

EUFN: How to Play Rising Yields in Europe

Last week’s stress test results for US banks were better than expected, as all US banks had their capital return plans approved for the first time in stress test history (since 2011). From a specific name standpoint, COF was the only modest disappointment, as it only received “conditional” approval and must resubmit numbers at a later date. Conversely, from research I’ve read, BBT, C, WFC and BK all were upside surprises.

Banks have rallied nicely into these stress tests results, and it feels like banks are trying to reassert market leadership. But while the stress test results were positive, they are already mostly priced in. So, for banks to really reassert themselves as market leaders we need the 10-year yield to break its downtrend (so resistance at 2.28%) and the economic data to pick up, and we’ll wait till that happens to get more aggressively long US banks.

Turning to Europe, after taking a one-day break, yields are once again rising. And with rising yields and consistently better economic growth, the set up for European bank stocks is starting to look similar to the set up for US bank stocks last July (when they started to massively outperform).

European bank stocks are not without risks (we’ve had two banks closed in Spain and Italy this month), but for those with appropriate risk appetite, EUFN (the MSCI European Financial ETF) is the best “pure play” on European banks. If yields in Europe keep rising, this ETF should handily outperform European and US averages (and, likely, US banks). We bought a small position last week ahead of the HICP report.

This All Could Be Coming to a Head

The market dynamic appears to be trying to change, but it needs help from yields and economic data. That reality makes the next 10 trading days very important.

Through June, markets have been dominated by tech and defensive outperformance as economic data and pro-growth policies implied a continued slow-growth economy and very gradual interest rate increases. As a result, defensive sectors (of which super-cap internet stocks that comprise FDN can be counted) and yield plays outperformed.

However, in early June tech broke down badly, and that has been followed by hawkish comments from Yellen, Draghi and Carney. The market is trying to embrace a more upbeat, cyclical outlook on the markets and the economy. The offshoot of that would be renewed outperformance by cyclical sectors (banks, industrials, small caps, retailers) at the expense of defensives. But, the actual economic data hasn’t validated bankers’ opinions, so the rotation can’t occur… at least not yet.

However, if the economic data in over the next five days beats expectations and validates central bankers’ expectations, then this rotation can occur, and cyclicals can potentially lead the market higher. Conversely, if this data remains lackluster, then we’ve got to start worrying about a stagnant economy in a rate-hike cycle—and that will be a headwind on stocks. Bottom line, we should have some pretty important resolution on the attempted rotation we saw in June over the next week or so.

If A Yield Curve Inverts In China, Does It Signal A Looming Recession?

In last week’s “Credit Impulse” section, I explained how China remains the largest macro threat to the rally as it begins to deflate its massive credit bubble, a credit bubble that has funded asset bubbles across geographies (Australian property, California property, Treasuries, stocks, etc.).

At this point, it’s just a risk, as there are no concrete signs that the Chinese economy is in trouble, although the Chinese bond market is signaling some caution.

First, it’s well known that inverted yield curves predict recessions. Here in the US, the inverted yield curve predicted the ’81, ’91, and ’00 recession, and the ’08 financial crisis (remember the yield curve inverted in ’05, and stayed that way until the Fed started cutting rates in late ’07).

So, it is noteworthy that the Chinese government bond yield curve is essentially flat, and in some cases, has inverted. For instance, as of yesterday the 3-year government bond was yielding 3.558%, higher than the 5 year at 3.524%. And, the 7 year was yielding 3.626%, higher than the 10 year, which yielded 3.56%. So, while not a total inversion, it is safe to say it’s flat.

Now, before we go running for the hills and sell stocks, we have to realize this is China, not US Treasuries. As such, liquidity distorts this picture somewhat. For instance, 10-year Chinese bonds are by far the most liquid, so they will move more than other issues. Still, this is not the type of yield curve that implies an economy that is healthy. Again, this matters, because the last time we got a Chinese economic scare it caused the S&P 500 to collapse 10% in a few days… not once, but twice in a six-month period.

Bottom line, I’m not saying get defensive, but I am saying that from a macro standpoint 2H ’17 is shaping up to be bumpier than 1H ’17, and I want everyone to be prepared. We will be watching China closely for you.

When Will the Bond Decline Matter?

For three months, we and other macro analysts have been warning that the bond market, via falling yields and a flattening yield curve, was sending a worrisome signal about future economic growth and inflation. And, that falling bond yields would act as a headwind on stocks.

Over that three months, the S&P 500 has moved steadily higher.

Now, given that, it might seem like falling bonds yields don’t matter to stocks. However, decades of experience in this business combined with listening to experienced analysts and traders tells me that bond yields always matter to stocks… it’s just a question of “when” they matter.

Regarding when, most of us are working on a medium/longer-term time frame (i.e. quarters and years), so getting the bigger market signals right is more important than outperforming over a few weeks. To that point, if bond yields do not reverse in the coming weeks/months, then I am quite sure that over the medium/longer term the stock market is in for a potentially significant pullback. Avoiding that pullback will be the key to multi-year outperformance.

So, the really important question is: “When will low bond yields matter?”

I believe the answer is: When investors realize bond yields are warning about slowing future growth, not lower inflation.

Right now, bulls are saying the drop in Treasury yields is just due to declining inflation—not because of potential slower economic growth.

Specifically, they’re pointing to statistical measures of inflation such as the CPI, PCE and the Price Deflator in GDP. Those measures of inflation are falling, which usually means deflation (which is bad for stocks).

But, the bulls aren’t as concerned about falling statistical inflation because, in their view, inflation has changed. Specifically, there is a growing school of thought that in a technology-dominated world, the old inflation statistics (CPI/PCE/Price Deflator) no longer capture true inflation in the economy.

For instance, those inflation statistics are currently being driven down by 1) Lower oil, 2) The Amazon effect, where retail margins are relentless slashed, and 3) General technology making most everyday items cheaper and more efficient. However, those price declines aren’t bad for the economy, and they don’t reflect the lack of consumer demand that usually accompanies falling prices. Technology and margin compression is making these prices fall, not an unwillingness of consumers to spend.

Meanwhile, asset and other forms of inflation are rising quickly. Over the past few years, home prices are up; rents are up, car prices are up, airfares are up, health insurance is up, tuition is up, the stock market is up and the bond market is up. So, the prices of all the things we “need” are up, but the prices of discretionary items (HD TVs, laptops, tablets, dishwashers, appliances) are down. Since CPI measures consumer goods heavily, inflation statistics are subdued.

Based on this logic, many investors aren’t sweating the decline in bond yields, because they believe, for now, that it’s just reflecting the decline in statistical inflation and not a future slowing of actual economic growth.

The key will be to recognize when investors begin to believe low bond yields reflect lower growth prospects. That will be the time to get seriously defensive in asset allocations. Yet as last Monday showed, with the market ignoring the soft Durable Goods report, we’re not there yet. But if this data doesn’t turn around, we will get there. Unfortunately, we don’t believe it’s different this time.

Disclaimer: CapitalistHQ.com is protected by federal and international copyright laws. CapitalistHQ.com is the publisher of the newsletter and owner of all rights therein, and retains property rights to the newsletter. The Newsletter may not be forwarded, copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system or otherwise reproduced or used in any form or by any means without express written permission from Kinsale Trading LLC. The information contained in CapitalistHQ.com is not necessarily complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither the information contained in CapitalistHQ.com or any opinion expressed in CapitalistHQ.com constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any future or security referred to in the Newsletter. The Newsletter is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized investment or trading advice to its subscribers. SUBSCRIBERS SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND COMPLETE THEIR OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES, OPTIONS AND FUTURES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND SUBSCRIBERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

source https://capitalisthq.com/will-economic-data-move-markets-this-week-weekly-capitalisthq-com/ from CapitalistHQ http://capitalisthq.blogspot.com/2017/07/will-economic-data-move-markets-this_4.html

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everettwilkinson · 7 years ago

Text

Will Economic Data Move Markets This Week? – Weekly CapitalistHQ.com

Good morning,

What’s in this week’s Report:

Why Economic Data This Week Is So Important

Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are modestly higher in quiet, holiday-like trading as global manufacturing PMIs largely met estimates.

So, barring a major surprise from the PMI or auto sales, I’d expect quiet trading today, although today’s data is still important for markets beyond the next 24 hours.

Everyone have a happy and safe 4th of July.

CapitalistHQ.com

Market

Level

Change

% Change

S&P 500 Futures

2,432.00

11.00

0.45%

U.S. Dollar (DXY)

95.86

0.4390

0.46%

Gold

1,226.60

-15.80

-1.27%

WTI

46.44

0.40

0.87%

10 Year

2.30%

0.01

0.35%

Stocks

This Week

Last Week (Needed Context as We Start a New Week)

Stocks declined modestly, and volatility returned last week as a coordinated, “not-dovish” message by central banks sent global bond yields surging. The S&P 500 declined 0.61% on the week.

On Friday, stocks rebounded slightly, helped by a benign Core PCE Price Index as the reflation trade took a breather ahead of the holiday weekend.

Your Need to Know

Bottom Line

Economic Data (What You Need to Know in Plain English)

Need to Know Econ from Last Week

Important Economic Data This Week

Commodities, Currencies & Bonds

Special Reports and Editorial

EUFN: How to Play Rising Yields in Europe

This All Could Be Coming to a Head

The market dynamic appears to be trying to change, but it needs help from yields and economic data. That reality makes the next 10 trading days very important.

If A Yield Curve Inverts In China, Does It Signal A Looming Recession?

At this point, it’s just a risk, as there are no concrete signs that the Chinese economy is in trouble, although the Chinese bond market is signaling some caution.

When Will the Bond Decline Matter?

Over that three months, the S&P 500 has moved steadily higher.

So, the really important question is: “When will low bond yields matter?”

I believe the answer is: When investors realize bond yields are warning about slowing future growth, not lower inflation.

Right now, bulls are saying the drop in Treasury yields is just due to declining inflation—not because of potential slower economic growth.

from CapitalistHQ.com https://capitalisthq.com/will-economic-data-move-markets-this-week-weekly-capitalisthq-com/

#TrumpNews #CapitalistHQ.com

0 notes

melindarowens · 7 years ago

Text

Will Economic Data Move Markets This Week? – Weekly CapitalistHQ.com

Good morning,

What’s in this week’s Report:

Why Economic Data This Week Is So Important

Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are modestly higher in quiet, holiday-like trading as global manufacturing PMIs largely met estimates.

So, barring a major surprise from the PMI or auto sales, I’d expect quiet trading today, although today’s data is still important for markets beyond the next 24 hours.

Everyone have a happy and safe 4th of July.

CapitalistHQ.com

Market

Level

Change

% Change

S&P 500 Futures

2,432.00

11.00

0.45%

U.S. Dollar (DXY)

95.86

0.4390

0.46%

Gold

1,226.60

-15.80

-1.27%

WTI

46.44

0.40

0.87%

10 Year

2.30%

0.01

0.35%

Stocks

This Week

Last Week (Needed Context as We Start a New Week)

Stocks declined modestly, and volatility returned last week as a coordinated, “not-dovish” message by central banks sent global bond yields surging. The S&P 500 declined 0.61% on the week.

On Friday, stocks rebounded slightly, helped by a benign Core PCE Price Index as the reflation trade took a breather ahead of the holiday weekend.

Your Need to Know

Bottom Line

Economic Data (What You Need to Know in Plain English)

Need to Know Econ from Last Week

Important Economic Data This Week

Commodities, Currencies & Bonds

Special Reports and Editorial

EUFN: How to Play Rising Yields in Europe

This All Could Be Coming to a Head

The market dynamic appears to be trying to change, but it needs help from yields and economic data. That reality makes the next 10 trading days very important.

If A Yield Curve Inverts In China, Does It Signal A Looming Recession?

At this point, it’s just a risk, as there are no concrete signs that the Chinese economy is in trouble, although the Chinese bond market is signaling some caution.

When Will the Bond Decline Matter?

Over that three months, the S&P 500 has moved steadily higher.

So, the really important question is: “When will low bond yields matter?”

I believe the answer is: When investors realize bond yields are warning about slowing future growth, not lower inflation.

Right now, bulls are saying the drop in Treasury yields is just due to declining inflation—not because of potential slower economic growth.

source http://capitalisthq.com/will-economic-data-move-markets-this-week-weekly-capitalisthq-com/ from CapitalistHQ http://capitalisthq.blogspot.com/2017/07/will-economic-data-move-markets-this.html

0 notes

everettwilkinson · 7 years ago

Text

Will Economic Data Move Markets This Week? – Weekly CapitalistHQ.com

Good morning,

What’s in this week’s Report:

Why Economic Data This Week Is So Important

Weekly Market Preview

Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are modestly higher in quiet, holiday-like trading as global manufacturing PMIs largely met estimates.

So, barring a major surprise from the PMI or auto sales, I’d expect quiet trading today, although today’s data is still important for markets beyond the next 24 hours.

Everyone have a happy and safe 4th of July.

CapitalistHQ.com

Market

Level

Change

% Change

S&P 500 Futures

2,432.00

11.00

0.45%

U.S. Dollar (DXY)

95.86

0.4390

0.46%

Gold

1,226.60

-15.80

-1.27%

WTI

46.44

0.40

0.87%

10 Year

2.30%

0.01

0.35%

Stocks

This Week

Last Week (Needed Context as We Start a New Week)

Stocks declined modestly, and volatility returned last week as a coordinated, “not-dovish” message by central banks sent global bond yields surging. The S&P 500 declined 0.61% on the week.

On Friday, stocks rebounded slightly, helped by a benign Core PCE Price Index as the reflation trade took a breather ahead of the holiday weekend.

Your Need to Know

Bottom Line

Economic Data (What You Need to Know in Plain English)

Need to Know Econ from Last Week

Important Economic Data This Week

Commodities, Currencies & Bonds

Special Reports and Editorial

EUFN: How to Play Rising Yields in Europe

This All Could Be Coming to a Head

The market dynamic appears to be trying to change, but it needs help from yields and economic data. That reality makes the next 10 trading days very important.

If A Yield Curve Inverts In China, Does It Signal A Looming Recession?

At this point, it’s just a risk, as there are no concrete signs that the Chinese economy is in trouble, although the Chinese bond market is signaling some caution.

When Will the Bond Decline Matter?

Over that three months, the S&P 500 has moved steadily higher.

So, the really important question is: “When will low bond yields matter?”

I believe the answer is: When investors realize bond yields are warning about slowing future growth, not lower inflation.

Right now, bulls are saying the drop in Treasury yields is just due to declining inflation—not because of potential slower economic growth.

from CapitalistHQ.com http://capitalisthq.com/will-economic-data-move-markets-this-week-weekly-capitalisthq-com/

#TrumpNews #CapitalistHQ.com

0 notes