#it's not a huge deal it's just kind of a bummer i had to bail out of belated halloween party

[moe-broey]

DEVASTATING. Guy who was born to hang out can't even do that right

[iwritefanficsometimes]

Subtly Is An Art That We Do Not Possess

Upscale Party Couple AU (established) - IronStrange

A/N: So this is a prompt I gave myself and I still didn’t follow it. I guess consider this a warning if you send prompts, I’m very bad at following them apparently.

Summary: Tony and Stephen crash parties together. They’re very good at it, until they’re not.

——

Tony Stark has never crashed a party in his life. He’s been invited to every party he’s ever attended, sometimes the party throwers just didn’t know they’d invited him. Tony was good at blending in with a crowd, constructing aliases was his forte. He could bullshit with the very best of them, and had never been kicked out of a single event… until he met Stephen.

Stephen was good, no doubt about it. He rivaled even Tony for his ability to make the most ridiculous things sound believable, and that was the problem.

The first time Tony met Stephen it was at a yacht party that barely made Tony’s radar until he heard that the security was extra tight. Tony took tight security as a personal challenge to his creativity, and he loved the rush of getting around it enough to crash an okay-ish yacht party instead of the upscale charity ball he’d had his eye on.

To hear Stephen tell it, Tony only crashed that party because Stephen had crashed it first, but to hear Tony tell it, it was the other way around. They still argue about that when the truth is neither of them had any idea the other was there until they bumped into each other. They could both spot another party crasher from a mile away, but Stephen and Tony were particularly skilled party crashers that usually didn’t get caught crashing, not by the people who threw the party, and not by other crashers. So when Stephen started chatting Tony up, though Stephen claims Tony started the chatting up, Tony started pushing the envelope, each thinking the other was being entirely sincere in their claims of experience, riches, and various celebrity bed partners. They would have gotten away with it, and probably been the people the party was best remembered for, if one of the people they were each claiming as bed partners hadn’t been right there and overheard the whole thing.

They got thrown out of that party, and Stephen blamed Tony for breaking his perfect record while Tony blamed Stephen for breaking his twelve party streak. The only thing either of them had to blame was their huge egos for that and for everything that happened after.

Tony taunted Stephen with an impossible to crash party. Invitation only, excluse, 50,000 dollars a plate kind of exclusive, and Stephen goaded Tony back, claiming that he couldn’t crash that party either. Neither of them could back down from the challenge, so they both tried, Tony by claiming to be a plus one and Stephen by stealing someone’s invitation and using it to get in. When it was time to be seated they weren’t just able to take any seat, each seat had a name tag and the waiters were coming around to test everyone seated against a list of faces. Stephen and Tony were screwed and they both knew it. Their eyes instinctively sought each other out across the room, and they glared at each other. They’d both gotten in, but neither of them was going to stay in. Now it was just a game of chicken to see who would leave first. Tony sure as hell wasn’t going to leave, and neither was Stephen. SO they chatted up their table and watched each other as the waiters came around to ensure that attendees were who they said they were. Tony’s waiter was fast approaching, and Tony, knowing that he was more than likely going to be the first one spotted, decided to play a little bit dirty. He got up as the waiter was on their way to the table, and smiled at him, kind of tightly, like a dissatisfied rich person might if they smelled something awful, like a poor person. “Excuse me, sir. I know the man who’s supposed to be sitting in that chair, and it’s not the man currently sitting in it. Please do something about that.” He put on his best irritated face and the waiter, rather than bowing to Tony’s performance, looked entirely nonplussed. “Of course, sir. While I have you here, can I get your name to confirm attendance.”

“No, you can’t, because I need to pee. I was at that table over there,” he points vaguely in the direction of a table with several empty seats. “I’m going to the bathroom, you deal with that.”

Tony walked away and he winked at Stephen. Stephen glared back as the waiter headed in his direction. Tony ducked into the bathroom for a minute and when he came out Stephen was gone and guards were hovering around the place where he’d been sitting. Shit. Tony turned and made a dash for the back exit, only to be met by none other than Stephen Strange.

“You snitched.”

“Well apparently so did you,” Tony says, glancing over his shoulder at the guards.

“Oh, please, they would have found you out anyway, but I had a chance. The guy who’s invite I stole, I could have passed for his son. I could’ve made it.”

“And yet you didn’t. Bummer.” Tony glanced back over his shoulder again and winced at the approaching guards. “I think we better get out of here.” Stephen’s eyes followed his gaze. “Well, far be it from me to stay when I’m not wanted. Come on, I had an exit plan.”

“Exit plans are for failures.”

“Exit plans are for people who don’t have the money to bail themselves out of jail, trust fund baby.”

“It’s not a trust fund.” Tony grumbled, and he didn’t know how Stephen knew about that, but he didn’t like it. Not one bit.

Stephen didn’t care about Tony’s response, grabbing his hand and dragging him away from the back entrance Tony had been heading to. Tony ran after him without thinking, tugged by Stephen’s grip on his hand. Once security saw them running they realized that Tony and Stephen were definitely party crashers and they pursued. Rude.

“They’re following us.” Tony told Stephen as they ran and Stephen huffed, in part from the running, in part from exasperation.

“Well they’re not going to stop just because you’re watching them. Hurry up.”

“Hey, you’ve got freakishly long legs,” they dodge a waiter and then duck into an empty hallway. “Don’t tell me to hurry up.”

“My legs are a normal size, you’re just freakishly short.”

“I’m of average height!” Tony said indignantly, too loudly, because suddenly they could both hear men speaking over walkie talkies getting too close.

“Quick, in here,” Stephen pushed open the nearest door, which turned out to be a broom closet, and shoved Tony inside and then closed the door behind them.

They stood there quietly as they listened for security to pass. Neither of them even risked breathing loudly until they were sure they were gone. When they stopped straining their ears and started looking at each other neither of them could help laughing. One of Tony’s hands gripped Stephen’s shoulder to keep himself upright, and Stephen couldn’t find it in himself to push it away.

“I think we’re clear.” Stephen said when they were winding down.

“Was this your escape plan?”

“No, you ruined it with your short legs.”

Tony punched Stephen in the shoulder. “You’re a freak of nature. WHat are you, six seven?”

“Six feet even.” Stephen rolled his eyes and peeked his head out the door. “Come on, before they start searching in earnest.”

“No one says earnest anymore.”

Stephen rolls his eyes before leaving the closet. “Alright. Let’s go.”

Tony grumbled but followed.

-

The next weekend Tony and Stephen decided to crash a party together, figuring it was better not to work against each other. This party and every party since, ended much like the first, with them trying to one up each other until everyone knew they had to be lying, but at a certain point it had stopped being about the parties and started being about showing each other up. It got to a point where they were so notorious that they had to leave New York to find a party where people didn’t recognize them. The fun wasn’t in crashing the parties anymore, it was in shocking the most people with their antics. It became like bonding. Neither of them ever successful crashed even the most casual of parties after that, but they were perfectly content to make their own fun.

They even got kicked out of their own bachelor party, mostly because the people who had thrown it for them had no idea what it was. They cackled the entire way back to their apartment and got married a week later, attending a party they weren’t kicked out of for the first time since they’d met.

Until Tony took his tux off.

They even managed to get kicked out of their own wedding reception, and it was hilarious.

Pepper kept the pictures.

(AO3)

Prompt Me!

[winstonhcomedy]

“Dope A-F” - 8/15 -8/19 - “ Pet Lovers, Crushing Defeats, and Homecoming”

I missed my deadline on Sunday which isn’t great, but oh well! I am so happy I got most of my stuff done. I only didn’t do the IG video (because honestly I have no idea what I’m going to do for that) and my blog post because I couldn’t get my internet to work! But so far this week I am 2 for 2 ! Hooray! So let’s hop right into it.

8/15

After work I headed straight to the venue. Tonight’s show was going to be a Kindred Spirit. I was closing it out. I was looking forward to getting a bite at the food truck, and doing some comedy. The brewery is pretty big, and it is not super conducive to comedy, but I have always had a pretty good set here.

I get to the venue and since it had been raining the food truck cancelled. Which is a huge bummer. So I just kind of sit around and wait for other comedians to show up so I am not chilling out starving.

After a while a few comics show up. Aaron Shoemaker was going to be hosting, then a dude who has only done comedy once showed up and I think his name was Richard. Aaron and I catch up and talk as the other comics arrive. The other comics on the show were Will Minor, Stella Naulo, Alida Harper, and Ry Mather.

The turnout is less than usual at these shows. I think it is due to the weather. The charity we are raising money for is Goochland Pet Lovers. The show is running a little late, but nothing too crazy. The biggest thing is how new all of the comics are. I have only been doing comedy 4 years and I have been doing it longer than the rest of them combined.

The show starts and Aaron goes up to host. The crowd is kind of weird. They are pretty tight and they aren’t really digging anyone’s jokes. Some people are bombing, but others are at least doing ok. Stella did a little crowd work and that did well, but when she transitioned to her material it was just the same response everyone else had gotten.

I wanted to do well, but I was hungry and honestly didn’t really feel like I had the ability to do well. I decided I was just going to try and have fun and only do crowd work. Which I did for about 30 minutes. I had an extremely good set! Especially with how the room was. I actually got to talk about politics in a center right room and able to make the super republican dude in the crowd laugh. I was doing callbacks and able to jump back and forth between audience members.

Honestly it felt so good. Shows like this serve as a reminder to me the importance of being able to do crowd work. I am so glad I make myself write, and try material out at open mics. I do not want to be the dude who only does crowd work, but I love being the dude that if I need/want to I can only do crowd work.

I think the highlight was a table of 2 parents and 3 young adults. I was able to talk about their time in college, and joke about where they go/are going to school. It got some huge laughs. I also had a dude come up on stage with me in the first 10 minutes. He was just a drunk dude who had a lot of money. We joked back and forth, and he legit came across as insane. This was one of the most nuts shows I have ever done. I’d give it an A-.

I got off stage and met some people, and got my free beer from the venue to go. I talk to the comics for a bit and make sure I grabbed my mic stand (used it because the one they had was shit) before heading out. I got home and passed out because after long sets I get super tired.

8/16

The next day after work I headed up to DC. I was in the Comedy Kumite competition in the DC Improv lounge. I get up there and Alex Castagne and I meet up to walk and talk for a bit. He is on a show at Shaw’s Tavern.

After walking for a while we go our separate ways and I get to the club. The lineup for the show’s look like it is going to be fun. I am going against Kasha Patel in the first show and then Wendy Wrobleski in the second show.

We get a good hang going before the first one. Max Wolfson, Ross Benoit, Kasha, Lawrence Killebrew (Atlanta), Kevin Seefried, Simone, Wendy, and myself.

The show starts and the first two rounds of the first show were going great. Kevin, Simone, Ross, and Lawrence all murdered. I was so excited and then I went up. We did rock paper scissors to determine who goes first and I lost so she picked me.

I ate a massive dong on stage. I did ok, but the room was so hot. They hated my teaching material and I disappointed myself. I’d give this set an F. I truly hated it. Then Kasha went up next and she had an ok set. Honestly neither of us really killed.

They then did audience reaction and we tied. Then they did it again and I lost. Knocked out in the first round sucks. It reminded me why I really hate comedy competitions. I put too much pressure on myself, and if you lose it is impossible to not feel hurt.

So I spent the rest of the first show getting into my own head, and being upset with myself. I hung with the other comics and after the first show we headed to Shake Shack. I grabbed my milkshake and went back to the Improv to see Alex for a bit. Benjy Himmelfarb and Dee Ahmed are there as well. We talk a bit before I head inside to get ready for the second show.

The second show starts and Wendy and I are the first match. We go up and I lose rock, paper, scissors again and get started. I have a much improved set. I do crowd work and jokes. Everything is working and I am riffing just trying to get anything to land. It felt so good to recover and be able to have a good set. I’ d give this set a B. Which for the first set is definitely dope.

Then Wendy goes up and she has a good set too. I really respect her as a comedian. She gets laughs, but isn’t destroying. All in all a really good set. They bring us back up and do audience response and I lose again. This one hurt for a different reason. The first show I had a bad set, and I felt like I deserved to lose. This set was different. I gave it my all and I don’t think I could have done better with this crowd. I am just super upset with myself. It is also pretty early and I am all kinds of in my feels. I miss my dad, I am kind of sick, I am starving, and honestly just want to go home.

I go to leave and cancel my spot at Big Hunt. I just wasn’t in the right headspace for this (I will never bail on a set again). Looking back I”m mad I did this, but honestly if my mind was telling me to go I am glad I did. I ended up being so tired on my way home I stayed at TJs. I got there and passed out immediately. I had a show tomorrow headlining in my hometown and I needed to get out of my own head.

8/17

I woke up the next day and started to head to Farmville to headline The Brew House. I stopped a few times on my way since it was a close to 3 1/2 hour drive. I stopped at a diner and had a pretty good meal but some piss poor service. I also stopped at a Sheetz for a frozen lemonade which hit the spot.

When I got into town I parked and walked to Charley’s Waterfront Cafe so I could have a bowl of their Roasted Red Pepper and Crab soup. This was one of my favorite meals when I was younger. I haven’t had it in about 10 years so it was really awesome to go back.

I then headed to The Brew House and met up with Liz. Liz had booked this show after how much fun the show in Blackstone was. Her and I hung and talked a bit before her and a friend went walking around Main Street.

Then I started to see all of the locals I had grown up with and knew through my time in high school Tracey Carilli and her husband Tony were there. I got to talk to Tracey for a long time. It was super nice to catch up with her. Then Judy Ellington and Julie Adams showed up. Then it was like nonstop. I had Johnny Ellington, Jason, the Meadows, Michelle Wheeler, Michaela Atkinson, Branden Bolt, Jacob Mercier, Ryan Sharpe, Jackie Montego-Sharpe, Dusty Grey, Rebecca Ragland Grey, the Carters, Andy Ellington, Susan Johnson, Carson Johnson, Sierra Smith, and I am sure I am missing some. I know these names mean nothing to you guys, but it meant the world to me that people who made a large impact in my life as a child/young adult came to support me.

There was a line out the door to come in at 7:30. We had to start late so people could get seated. I knew about 1/3 of the audience and the rest were just people looking to catch the show and grab a bite to eat.

Jason Kusterer and Anthony Thompson showed up a bit before showtime. Then Liz found out they didn’t have a PA so we had to go grab mine out of my car and set everything up while people filed in. I could tell it was going to be a rowdy crowd but I was ready.

The show started and Liz went up and let everyone know it was going to be an adult show. She got everyone to yell their favorite curse word. She then went into her set and she did a fine job hosting. After her was Kusterer who started out pretty strong, but lost the crowd after a joke about suicide by cop. Then Anthony went up and tried to deal with how loud the room was. They were about half paying attention and the rest were just talking and being super loud and drunk.

It was a tough room, but he did a good job. He did a good amount of material and addressed them in spots. He kept them paying attention, and walked around the crowd a bit. He held the show together, and got some pretty big laughs which was dope to see.

Then it was my turn. I felt a ton of pressure to succeed. I was worried they’d all hate it, but I just went for it. I did about 33 minutes and 20 of it was crowd work. I worked the crowd, and did some local crowd work as well (which feels like cheating, and an advantage I had over the other comics). I was able to tie it in to talking to a few teachers I didn’t know. One was a lady who was talking all night. She was an English teacher who made her students put Beowulf on trial. I kept busting her balls on that. Then there was a history teacher who had a crush on Thomas Jefferson and I was really able to play off of both of them.

It was a super fun set. I had some lulls in the middle when I switched to material and realized that is not what this crowd wanted. The 1/3 that I knew paid attention and dug the material while the other 2/3 were just kind of drunk townies who wanted me to interact with them. So I went back to crowd work when I lost some steam. The last 10 minutes was crowd work and me trying new jokes because it was a free show. The people enjoyed it but I did not close as strong as I wished. I’d give this set a B/B-.

I got off feeling weird, but got to catch up with everyone. It was so nice and everyone was so supportive. I am sure they liked it as much as they did because they care about me, but either way the whole crowd was entertained. I felt like I did my job as a headliner, and I think its a good sign I wanted to do better. it is good to know I can work these rooms, but I wish I had gotten to do more material.

After everyone left I got to hang with Kusterer and Anthony for a bit. We talked about our sets and comedy. We talked about small towns like this, and the type of show it was. We had a blast hanging out. They left and I finished my drink. I then hopped in my car and headed home to get a good nights rest.

8/18

This was my day off. I kind of relaxed, ate, and saw Toy Story 4. I hung out with my mom and started watching Avengers End Game. I am most upset that I didn't use my time wisely this day. I wasn’t able to get an IG video for Saturday or my blog post up for Sunday. So one week in and I already messed it up. Which is ok. I am just going to have to try harder this week.

8/19

After work I headed up to the Southern in Charlottesville for the open mic. I had a few new tags and stuff I really wanted to do. I felt weird all day, and honestly my mental health isn’t the best. I’m glad that tomorrow I get to go to therapy. I need to find a way to afford it weekly again, but for right now that is not a possibility. I am hoping some more comedy gigs, and some better luck I can build my savings back up.

I get there and Kusterer, Patrick Nowaczyk, Ry Mather, and Tom Hall are already there. I go inside and throw my stuff down and say hi to Danny. Then Heather walks in. I rode some grilled cheese bites from Shawn, and sit down to talk.

It was super fun catching up and hearing what everyone had been up to. Tom started a new job, Pat broke his arm, and a bunch of other shit. Then Paige came in wearing a new outfit. He had a shark hat that I’d never seen before, but definitely has a Paige vibe.

Then a bunch of comics rolled up. Jack Gerow, John Marg, Luzader, Sam Wood, Sammy Major, Keaton Ray, JR, Johnny Rad, Shane Hill, Alex Castagne, and Chris. I kept popping in and out of different groups joking and catching up. We had the comics meeting and I found out I was 10th. I was between Luzader and JR.

The crowd was an ok size. Not bad. better than the last few at least. A dude with a service dog came inside and Chris started joking about it right away during his set. Which was awesome. They loved it, and it really got the audience as loose as we could get them.

When the show kept going there were a few good sets, but for the most part it felt like everybody was tight. No one was offended, and no one left early. They just would rather politely smile at an offensive joke and hold back the laughs.

Alex had a strong set for the room, and so did Paige. Ry Mather had one of the better sets I’ve seen him have and it was cool to watch Kusterer open up and try some newer stuff in front of a different crowd.

It was my turn and I feel pretty good about the set. I joked and riffed around. I told a super offensive joke that I only do off stage. That was fun. I tried some new tags to 2 or 3 jokes and they worked for the most part. I tried a more rapid fire delivery, but it screwed with my rhythm a little bit. So that was good to find out. I also riffed a character of a dude who is a conspiracy theorist but he thinks that more than 6 million jews died in the Holocaust. He believes it was 12. So he isn’t a Holocaust denier is a Holocaust multiplier. I’d give my set a C- but it was a super fun C-.

I hung out for the rest of the show and had a good time. We were lighting Johnny Rad during his set, and he got a little salty and called Chris a dumbass. It was awesome. It was like watching someone yell at their dad.

The show ended and I headed straight home. I was feeling pretty depressed. I am very disillusioned with comedy. I feel stuck. Not just physically, but also my career. I need to stick around for a bit after dad’s passing, but at the same time I am so worried I am using it as an excuse to not move.

We did it! I got caught up in time for the Tuesday blog post! Thanks for reading laydees and baybees ! I love you all very much! Make sure to check out all of my content on youtube, IG, and twitter! I am trying to kill the game! xoxo til next time

[achildoftheivy-blog]

Chapter 11: Flower Moon

The morning after your first Vampire Weekend concert is an amazing feeling.  If you’re not familiar with Vampire Weekend, they are a rock band from New York, forming in 2006. They are heavily influenced by African and World music with some nice Paul Simon and Peter Gabriel vibes. I’ve been avidly listening to them since 2006 and last night was the first time I was able to see them live. It was also their first time performing in Charlotte. Suffice to say, they don’t come to my neck of the woods that much.

So for them being one of my bucket list bands, I was entirely prepared to not even go see them. When the fan club presale tickets went on sale a handful of months ago, I had them in my cart, but for whatever reason I said no and didn’t buy them. I must have been in a mood and the steep price didn’t sway me. BUT this is a bucket list band! A list that incorporates bands I’ve mostly been listening since their formation and have made an incredible impact on my life. How could I just pass this opportunity up?

That’s what I asked myself on Friday morning, the day before the concert. They had just released some more tickets in the PIT section, my favorite section right up on the stage. I also saw where they were playing in Raleigh Friday night, so I could have gone there also. I had an opportunity in front of me to experience a potentially good time and I’ve been trying to put more of an effort to chase those experiences.

I bit the bullet and bought the Charlotte PIT ticket along with a Fast Pass ticket. FYI, if you can purchase a Fast Pass ticket and you are in a situation where the concert is first come, first serve on standing position, it’s no doubt worth every extra penny to get one.

So yay, I got the ticket and I was looking forward to a nice time. I felt I should have been more hyped, but maybe it was because I saw the weather forecast and it was calling for severe storms. 

I’m about sick of these storms lately. They postponed my Lord Huron concert, we got a rain shortened Day 2 Gears and Guitar Music Festival, and it put a damper on my Asheville hiking excursion. The rain just needs to chill. 

It’s already difficult enough to go to a concert by yourself. You kind of have to mentally pumped yourself up knowing that it’s just going to be you. You don’t have the luxury of someone saving your spot, going on a beer run, or just having that amazing shared experience with someone. It’s even more difficult when you are dealing with that and you are driving through dark clouds and heavy rains towards the concert. I was fighting myself to not bail on the show and just hang out in concord mills instead. But I continued forward and I was determined to go through with it and make the most of it.

I’m going to be honest with you all right now, I’m not a person who believes in destiny, karma, or stuff happens for a reason. I think life is inexplicably chaotic, unfair, and it is what it is. I believe if you rely on life or the universe to give you or someone else their karma or comeuppance you’ll be setting yourself up for disappointment. Having said that though, there is something to be said for last night, that is just a unique series of events that just made me think. 

So the rain is now at a constant hard drizzle and I go to my parking lot that I’m familiar with at this venue in Charlotte. Although now, it’s not free parking it’s paid and I have to go up to the attendant. The guy is says it’s $10 and I’m thinking no problem. I was pretty sure I had around $15 on me. I open my wallet and there is a 5 and four 1′s. 

Damn.

Must’ve been a girl to take my other $6 - they tend to do that.

I’m doing my best at holding up the line as I’m scrounging for change. I find .75 real quick and then I pull apart some interior and I find a another quarter. I’m in. PHEW.

I park and I grab what I now discover is the world LARGEST XL poncho. I’m in one of the trendiest parts of Charlotte and I’m looking like a damn fool in my over sized clown poncho.

Whatever, I make my way towards the amphitheater to get in line. Now, when I have PIT tickets, I try to get to the venue an hour before the doors open so I get be one of the first ones in to get a spot up front. I was about 75 minutes early and thinking it’s all good. I get to the entrance and the fast pass line is completely lined up. I’ve never seen anything like this before. I’m thinking to myself, “WTF is a Fast Pass good for if everyone has gotten a Fast Pass?!?” It ruins the whole purpose of it!!!!

I’m moping hella far back in line, in the rain, inside a family tent converted poncho, and alone. I don’t want to be here. I want to leave. 

Then things start to turn. 

When the attendants where going through the line make sure everyone was in fact a fast pass holder, there was a commotion!!! Apparently a whole group of people were at the wrong venue. There is like 3 different music venues within the same block. A crow of people in front of me left. I was back up in line in a more manageable position!

I eventually get into the venue and I go looking for the PIT area. Of course, I make a wrong turn and by the time I find out where I need to go, I’m about 10 people farther back in line than what I was when entering the PIT. I see that all the up front spots are taken, but I continue to the other side and there is a section open, but it’s a couple of security guards leaning up against the rail and no one else there. I go there and ask if this is open and they are like yeah, have it. So I ended up getting a pretty damn good spot up front and I’m able to lean against the rail. Apparently people though it was a security section, which is why people weren’t standing there. 

I got my spot, but now here lies the problem with going to a show solo. If I were to leave it and get a drink or go to the bathroom, someone else could take it. So I was hoping whoever ended up next to me could be cool enough to help me out. So that person arrives......it was the most Type A couple there could be. Loud, in your face, and just immediately not the people I would generally get along with. They were asking people to slide down and trying to get into spots that were being saved. But, I tried to feel them out a bit as I was planning my move. Eventually I just had to get a drink and I started a conversation with them and they saved my spot as I went to get a $13.50 beer!!!

They turned out to be really cool concert neighbors and it’s way more common to get bad ones in my experience. Also around this time the rain stopped, so I ditched the industrial tarp and it was all sun’s out guns out!

Now the show has begun and the one main aspect that I love about seeing my favorite bands live is that I get to hear songs that I’ve heard millions of times under a different light. I may hear an instrument I never was able to pick up on a studio recording, they may play an extended version of a song, or a lyric will hit you in different way and change your life. The entire night was like that and it was for one song in particular. I’ll get to that a little later. 

Vampire Weekend ended up playing around a 2 and a half hour set with all my favorite songs. That is a hefty set time, more than you would usually get at a concert. And looking at the Raleigh set list the night before, this was definitely catered just for me. I don’t know if I could have asked for a more perfectly suited set list for me. The crowd was full of energy and the band totally fed off of it. There is always a chance that a band you like could totally suck live. I’ve experienced that before and it’s a bummer. But this concert was everything I had hoped for it to be! Truly a memorable experience.

The concert has now ended and I’m starving. I hadn’t eaten for 11.5 hours and I have a couple beers in me. I needed some sustenance if I were to make it back home. All the little food places around the venue were packed with the post concert crowd. So I decided to escape the parking lot and grab something quick and unhealthy on the road. Whatever is still open at midnight. I was looking for a Taco Bell to get my protein burrito, but apparently those are few and far between on this stretch of highway. So I was going to settle on a McDonalds too. I get to an exit that had both a Taco Bell and a McDonalds. I start to get on the exit and it hits me. This is a bullshit exit that I remember that I went off on a while back. I know that taco bell was trash and 3 miles off the exit. I was going to do that again. I then saw the Mickey D’s right off the exit so I just decided to give in and go there. I was getting woozy. 

I get in live at the drive thru and I could look inside to see that it’s only ONE PERSON handles the orders and making the food!!!!!!

I legit was going to just leave, but I that point I was trapped inside the drive thru curb and the line. It was so slow and I was stuck with my dumb McDonalds decision. Then I noticed two huge pick up trucks hauling these immense trailers. They pull to the side of the parking lot and a few people get out. After a bit a dude comes walking towards my car and knocks on the passenger side window. I sighed because I don’t want to deal with people, but because of the person I am, I tiredly rolled down my window with the help of a healthy UUGGGHHHH.

He tells me that they won’t be able to get their vehicles through the drive thru to order and that If I was to order for them he would pay for my meal too. I’m a super nice person, so I obviously said yes. I was also not thinking and I probably would have said yes to most things. 

So here I am in my car finally ordering and the are on the other side of my car telling me want they want as I relay the order to the cashier. It took around 40 minutes from when I get stuck in line to when I finally got the order. I gave the food to the people and they told me to keep the change on top of paying for my meal. So I made out with a little over $10! Pretty sweet. 

Now I’ve been thinking about everything that has transpired during this evening. The push to fight myself through the storm to get to a very important experience. Being on the spot to come up with money last second. Going out in public looking like a fool. Disappointment in showing up early and still being disappointed, Dealing with making wrong turns and setting yourself back and having to interact with people you normally wouldn’t get a long with. Being in a position to open yourself up to helping people when your not fully 100% yourself. And having to make the best of what you got with instances you can’t control, like the weather. 

Last night, everything happened for a reason. Despite the bumps and annoyances in the road, I had an amazing night. And all those issues are just little irritations. I don’t think I could have handled last night as well without going through those same situations on a much larger scale the past year. Everything I have been through has allowed me to handle the same circumstances that I went through last night. And last night taught me that maybe, just maybe there might be a tiny bit of room to accept that things MIGHT happen for a reason, sometimes. Because everything that happened last night put me in a a position to have an incredible and rewarding time. 

Within the time frame of one night, it’s easier to see that concept.  It’s a lot more difficult to see that things happen for a reason when you are waiting months or years. I guess that is just something I have to be better at looking forward to.  

Now to get back to what I mentioned before about a song hitting me a different way. The song is called Flower Moon and you can listen to it below. They opened the show with this song and the lyrics just set the whole tone for just the night, the past couple weeks, and just me in this current moment in time.

“Flower moon cursed the night 

If the sun don't make things right 

Then it's gonna take a year”

“It was the right place, wrong time 

Another night at the borderline

Another night in the sway of the flower moon 

It was the right week on a cursed day 

Another chapter was underway”

“A shift in weight 

A simple twist of fate 

Suddenly, it's much too late 

The rising tide's already lapping at the gate”

[addictionstories]

8

I called the jail in the morning to find out when I could visit her and went up that afternoon. I was nervous. I knew she’d be withdrawing, and I had no idea what to expect. Had I ever even been around her when she was completely sober? I wondered. What would that be like? Would she be a different person? I pulled up to the huge, sprawling concrete justice center in Oswego. I’d never been to a jail before-- for any reason. Being here made me feel like I was a criminal. Inside a cop brought me into a small room with a glass window and telephone. It was just like the movies.  A moment later a guard walked Naomi in. Naomi was wearing blue jail clothes, like hospital scrubs. She looked better than I had expected. But I could tell the withdrawal must have been agonizing by the way she was walking, slow and labored.. She sat down and picked up the phone.  I said hello.

“Can you get me out of here,” she asked, with desperation in her voice, almost whimpering.

“How?”

“My bail is $2500.00.”

“I don’t have that kind of money. If I did I would.”

“Can you talk to my parents and see if they can? Please.”

“Yeah...I mean...I can try.”

We talked for minutes, then I saw the female jailer inching up from behind

Naomi made another desperate plea.

“Call my parents. Tell them to get me out of here.”

Then she was whisked away.

I called Matt after.

“How’d it go,” he asked.

“Oh man, it sucked.”

“What happened?”

“I didn’t get much time with her and before I knew it it was over. And she was begging me to get her out. I felt terrible for her. But what can I do? I I don’t have 2500.00 to bail her out.”

“That’s a bummer.”

I don’t know what I was expecting. None of her drug friends had visited her, as far as I knew. I thought she’d be happier to see me. I guess I was just feeling a little underappreciated.

I called her mom that evening and brought up the bail. I told her I thought that Naomi seemed ready to make a change and mentioned the plan we’d had to go to rehab.

“She really has to want to it. She has to want to get clean, and I don’t think she does yet.  I love my daughter. But she’s where she needs to be right now.”

It was hard for me to imagine Naomi in jail. To me she wasn’t a criminal. She never really hurt anyone except herself.

Later that night I got another phone call. I picked up and heard an automated recording: “You have a call from a correctional facility. To hear payment options press one.” I quickly set up an account. She called back again ten minutes later.

“So good to hear from you. How are you holding up?”

“Okay, I guess. Under the circumstances. Did you talk to my mom?”

“Yeah.”

“Are they going to bail me out?”

“She didn’t really say.”

“They’re not going to do it. I know they’re not going to. Can you call a bail bonds place and see if that might work?”

“Okay.”

“I have a court appearance on Wednesday night in Central Square. It’s a 5:00. I’ll find out more then.”

“I’ll be there. And I’ll tell your parents.”

She told me she loved me and said goodbye.

Immediately after I got off the phone, I googled bail bonds in Syracuse and called the first listing.  I explained my situation, of having a friend in jail who I wanted to bail out. He asked me what the charge was. “Drug possession,” I told him.

“We don’t work with those charges.”

He took an extra second to give me a little advice. “I don’t know what your relationship is with this girl,” he said. “But realize that If she doesn’t show up to court, you’re on the hook for the full amount. And people with drug charges are notorious for not showing up. We don’t even deal with it anymore.”

After I hung up, I thought more about what he said. For the first 43 years of my life, I’d managed to stay completely outside of the criminal justice system. Now, in the last 48 hours, I had seen the inside of a jail and talked with a bail bondsman.  I didn’t bother calling any other places.

I called Naomi’s mom with the details about her court appearance.

She sighed. “I can’t go. I can’t handle seeing her like that. But her father is going.”

On Wednesday I drove out to the Central Square Justice Court. I pulled into the parking lot, wondering if I had the right spot. In my mind a courthouse was a solemn building with classic Greek architecture, pillars, an ornate facade. This place looked like a utility shed for the Department of Public Works.  I was early, but after a while cars started pulling in. People were getting out and walking up to the building. A woman unlocked the door. I stayed outside and waited, wondering when Naomi was going to get there.  Would I get a chance to talk to her for a minute? . A moment later, her father’s van pulled into the lot. I went over to say hello.“I’m just here for moral support,” I said nervously.

“Yeah, me too.”

“Judge Hendrick isn’t going to be happy to see Naomi again,” he said. “She went before him on a shoplifting charge a few years ago.”

Oh no, I thought. I guess there were things about Naomi that I didn’t know.

“He’s stern but fair, and he’s been a family friend for twenty-five years. So we’ll see what happens.”

A white police van pulled in a few minutes later. A cop got out and slid the door open. Naomi hopped out. She was shackled to four other people, all clad in garish jumpsuits. The cop marched the gang in, seating them in an office off the main room of the building. I made eye contact with Naomi but I wasn’t able to talk to her. Naomi’s father and I walked in and took seats in the back. The place was small, dank and dreary, with wood paneling on the walls that looked like if was from the early 70s.

The people with minor offenses were called first. That took about an hour and a half. After that they started bringing in the people from the office. A pudgy moon-faced guy came out. Then a young slender guy.  Hendrick was all business.  He had leathery skin and icy eyes.   Then they brought Naomi out, all shackled in a bright orange jump suit. Like she was the Unabomber or O.J. Simpson. But she hadn’t killed anyone. It was all so draconian. It didn’t even seem real to me.  Hendrick was talking and her lawyer was talking, but we couldn’t hear a word of it. Her father went up the public defender after to find out what happened. “Well, she’s not getting out tonight,” he said. She has another court date in three weeks.”

I went to see her again a few days later. This was a contact visit. We sat in the same room on plastic chairs. I was allowed to hug her and give her a peck on the lips at the beginning and end of the visit. Naomi talked about the food, and some of the friends that she had made and how miserable it was to be there. She brought up the bail money again.

“My mom did my taxes last year. She has my refund money. I want to use that for my bail. It’s not fair of her to not let me use that money. It’s my money.”

“I know...I know.”

“Can you talk to her again? This place isn’t doing me any good. I don’t have access to treatment in here. I know she thinks this is helping me. But being here is just making me want to do drugs.”

“Okay, I’ll talk to her again.”

I didn’t know what to do. This was putting me in a difficult place. I didn’t want to get between Naomi and her mother. I understood her mother’s thinking about wanting to give her some time to dry out in jail. And I’d heard stories about people getting sober after stays in jail. I was worried about her relapsing or even overdosing when she got out.

I had a long talk with her mom on the phone a few days later. “I really think shes serious about getting clean,” I said.  “What if I put half the money up, and we used Naomi’s money for the other half?”

She reluctantly agreed. I went to the bank the next morning and took out my share of cash. Then I went to the her dad’s car shop and and picked up the rest. At the jail I filled out a form, and handed a female officer the cash through a window. “If she’s not doing what you think she should be doing you can always revoke this,” the woman said.

“That’s good to know. Thank you.”

Naomi came walking down a long hall twenty minutes later. I gave her a huge hug.

After the jail visits, and the phone calls, it was an odd feeling to be out with her, totally free and unencumbered.  We stopped a the Fastrac gas station in fulton. I want to change my clothes,” she said. She reached into back seat and rummaged through her bag, picking out a few things. Then she went into the bathroom. I waited in the car. Five minutes. Ten minutes, Twenty. I started to panic. Had she stashed drugs in her bag and brought them in there? She finally came out. “Oh man.  Don’t do that to me. I almost had a stroke waiting for you. What were you doing in there?”

“Just changing. And I had to pluck my eyebrows.”

She picked up a car charger and some snacks. I took her to get a haircut in Syracuse. Then we went to Subway for lunch.

What time do you want to go to your parent’s?

“A little later. I have to do a few errands first.”.

Errands?

“Yeah. I have to go back to the house and get some of my stuff.”.

“The house on the Northside? Are you serious? You can’t go back there.”

“I left some of my sketches there.”

“So what. You don’t need them.”

“It’s not going to take long.  Just a few hours. You can drive me to my parent’s house tonight.”

I looked outside the window and saw a cab waiting in the parking lot. It was Slim behind the wheel. I couldn’t believe it. Naomi wrapped up her sandwich, hugged me and left before I could say anything else.

“I’ll text you when I’m done.

I felt like I had made a colossal mistake.

[racingtoaredlight]

RTARL’s NBA Previewpalooza: Part One

One of the most hectic and entertaining NBA offseasons in recent memory is finally drawing to a close, and real-live game action is nearly upon us. After ending last season by swiftly dispatching the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Golden State Warriors have cemented themselves as the most ridiculous Final Boss in the history of team sports. Barring an injury that prevents either Kevin Durant or Steph Curry from playing in the postseason, it’s damn near impossible to imagine anyone preventing them from repeating. In the same way that a movie can still be great even if you guess the ending ahead of time, the ups and downs of each of the thirty teams in the NBA are still a ton of fun to follow, even if the eventual champion is basically a foregone conclusion. For me they are, anyway. 

Today I’ll be previewing the Eastern Conference, with the teams presented in the order I think they’ll finish, worst-to-first. I’ll roll out my Western Conference predictions and my picks for the end-of-season awards as soon as I can. Let’s rock and roll.

15. Chicago Bulls. Mother of God, this roster is an atrocity. Zach LaVine is the best player the Bulls have on their roster by a country mile, and he’s currently recovering from a torn ACL. He’s not even going to be cleared for contact until sometime in November. In the meantime, their best player is...Nikola Mirotic? I guess? Mirotic is a 6′10″ PF who averaged as many three-point attempts per game as rebounds last season, while shooting under 42% from the field. Woof. 

This year is all about landing a high draft pick to add to their young core of LaVine and uh, Denzel Valentine, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen. Damn, GarPax. Nice work. 

14. Brooklyn Nets. Oh, jeez. I’ll say this for the Nets: I really liked the move to ship Brook Lopez out of town for D’Angelo Russell. Lopez served no purpose on a team this bad, and there’s always the chance that the next foot injury he suffers is a career-ender. Getting a young guy with Russell’s pedigree for him is a score. In addition, the Nets are doing that thing where a team acts as a dumping ground for other team’s shitty contracts, while picking up draft picks along the way (they got a 2nd rounder from Toronto for taking DeMarre Carroll, for example). 

Speaking of draft picks, it’s impossible to talk about the Nets without mentioning the truly heinous trade that deprived them of their ‘14, ‘16, 17, and ‘18 first round picks. I still can’t believe that happened. The light at the end of the tunnel for the Nets isn’t going to be all that bright until after next season, when their rebuild can finally begin in earnest. In the meantime, enjoy D’Angelo and Jeremy Lin!

13. Atlanta Hawks. I learned recently that Dennis Schroder is a huge douche and his teammates really don’t like him at all. A team’s best player being an asshole isn’t a big deal when the player is a legit stud. When it’s Dennis Schroder, that’s less than ideal. The Hawks have some decently fun guys to watch in Schroder, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince and incoming rookie John Collins (pride of Wake Forest). I don’t really see it translating to a whole lot of wins, though. This feels like a transitional year for them, and I’m not sure if coach Mike Budenholzer is the kind of guy who’d want to stick around for a full rebuilding project. I can’t for the life of me find any information on his contract, so it won’t be surprising if he bails after this season, and the Hawks sink into full tank-mode. 

12. New York Knicks. Well, they got rid of Carmelo. The return wasn’t all that great (that’s putting it kindly), but it’s tough to argue that it was the wrong move. Now, the team can focus on developing Kristaps Porzingis into a superstar, and trying to build around him. The Knicks definitely aren’t going to be a GOOD team, but with Kristaps doing Kristaps things, Michael Beasley doing Michael Beasley things, Willy Hernangomez hustling like a madman, and Tim Hardaway Jr. possibly attempting 10 threes a game, they won’t be a total drag to watch. 

11. Indiana Pacers. I love Myles Turner as much as almost anyone, but he’s not enough to carry a winning team by himself quite yet. Victor Oladipo is a fine running mate, and I think he’ll have his best year to date. With Darren Collison and Cory Joseph both on the roster, the Pacers are assured of having a competent, unspectacular general on the floor at all times. I think the Pacers have enough to keep from completely bottoming out, but this still looks like a lottery team.

10. Philadelphia 76ers. There’s not a team in the league with as wide a range of possible outcomes as the Sixers. There are so many “ifs” here. IF Embiid plays 65+ games, and IF Ben Simmons hits the ground running, and IF Markelle Fultz is ready to play, this team could sneak into one of the final playoff spots in the East. On the other hand, IF Embiid has a health setback and another lost year, and IF Ben Simmons is still too raw to count on, and IF Markelle Fultz’s terrible jumper totally undermines his other qualities, the Sixers could find themselves dangerously close to the Nets and Bulls at the bottom of the conference. I think the Sixers will be one of the most fun teams in the league to watch this year, but they won’t coalesce enough to make a legit run at the playoffs until next season.

9. Charlotte Hornets. Truth be told, there really isn’t much of a difference between the Hornets, Pistons, and Magic. The Hornets losing Nic Batum to injury is a bummer, as this is a team that can ill-afford to lose a playmaker. They brought in Dwight Howard, and if the early reports are to be believed, he’s as healthy as he’s been in awhile, and he’s feeling rejuvenated. It remains to be seen how long the honeymoon period will last for him in Charlotte. The Hornets are well-coached and they have several good defenders. Kemba Walker is a legit star and has shown the ability to drag his team to the playoffs in the past. I also really liked their drafting of Malik Monk. Add it all up, and the Hornets aren’t a top-tier franchise, but they’re far from a smoldering trainwreck. I’m not great with compliments.

8. Detroit Pistons. I might be one of the few people remaining on the Andre Drummond bandwagon. I still think he has it in him to be an absolute force defensively, and I hope he makes a leap this season. Bringing in Avery Bradley gives them some more shooting and further fortifies their defense. By surrounding a rim-wrecking big man with shooters, it’s pretty clear Stan Van Gundy is trying to recapture the glory of his Orlando days. If he can get something useful in return for Reggie Jackson, and if Stanley Johnson progresses enough to be a legit rotation player, the Pistons may very well have a stew going. 

7. Orlando Magic. I really like a lot of the Magic players individually, but they’ve had issues fitting together in recent seasons. I think things will be different this year. Aaron Gordon is primed to take a step forward and become an All-Star, and Elfrid Payton has the skill to be a very good PG, especially defensively. Evan Fournier and Terrance Ross can both score in bunches from beyond the three-point line. The organization seems to dislike Nic Vucevic, but he’s a good player. He’ll either be productive for the Magic, or they’ll finally find a trade they like and bring in someone who fits what they want to do. 6′ 10″ rookie Jonathan Isaac was one of the picks at the draft that made the analysts ooh and ahh, so I guess that’s a good thing. 

6. Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are a pretty good team. They have two All-Star caliber players in Lowry and DeRozan, and Serge Ibaka is a perfectly decent third wheel. With that said, it feels to me like they’ve gone about as far as they can go. Most likely, they’ll chug through the season similar to the way they have the last couple of years, and proceed to bow out early in the playoffs. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if they get off to a slow start and decide to fire Coach Dwane Casey. After that, things could really spiral out of control, and DeRozan or Lowry could end up being traded. 

5. Miami Heat. I love Erik Spoelstra, and this roster is tailor-made for a coach to go buckwild trying to cause matchup problems for the opponent. They have an elite rim-protector in Hassan Whiteside, an upper-echelon point guard in Goran Dragic, and a slew of very good role players. There’s size and athleticism up and down the roster. They can go small, they can go big, they can load up with perimeter shooting, they have Peak Dion Waiters, and they brought in Kelly Damn Olynyk. This team as constituted is a blast. The only thing keeping them from legitimate contention is their lack of a go-to superstar. Pat Riley has proven rather adept at securing the services of players like that, but they don’t have any young guys that are obvious trade pieces, and they’re devoid of draft picks for 2018, so odds of an in-season deal are pretty slim.

4. Washington Wizards. I consider myself to be a reasonably WizWoke guy, but much like the Raptors, this feels like a team that’s reached it’s ceiling. The difference between the Wiz and the Raptors is that while Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka have caused locker room issues in the past, John Wall and Brad Beal seem to be more measured and mature guys, their own rocky relationship notwithstanding. I don’t see the potential for their locker room to implode the way I do with Toronto. Barring major injuries, this is a team that should coast to home court in the first round of the playoffs. Wall and Beal are a spectacular backcourt, and Otto Porter has improved every year he’s been in the league. Marcin Gortat is steady, but his style of play is rapidly becoming a liability in today’s NBA. They’re an athletic rim-protector away from taking another step forward, and unfortunately those aren’t all that easy to acquire. Also, Markieff Morris is a total piece of shit.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers. Just to be perfectly clear, I’m not saying the Cavs are the third best team in the East. I’m saying they’ll finish with the third-best regular season record. Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose, and Dwyane Wade are going to miss a ton of games. LeBron’s only objective is winning a title, and if he thinks resting during the season will improve his chances, he’s gonna sit some, as well. They aren’t going to care about gunning for a #1 seed, because they know they can beat anyone in the East without it. There will probably be a little bit of a feeling out process at the beginning of the year, but this is a veteran-laden roster and it should go smoothly. There’s a faint whiff of danger here, with Isaiah Thomas’ uncertain health, and the cloud of LeBron possibly bolting after the season hanging over everything. I don’t THINK things will take a nasty turn for them, but if they did it would be delightful from an entertainment perspective. 

2. Milwaukee Bucks. I am ALL IN on the Bucks. The term “position-less basketball” has become en vogue recently, and the Bucks are perfectly suited for it. They are flush with young, athletic, lengthy defenders. Half the battle in today’s NBA is trying to force defenders to switch assignments until you end up with a matchup you can take advantage of. Well, the Bucks have a boatload of guys who can reasonably guard every position on the floor. They’re going to be a nightmare to play against. 

In addition to their defensive capabilities, they have motherfuckin’ Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s a superhuman. I think this is the year he vaults into superduperstardom, and he’s a legit MVP candidate. The Bucks figure to get Jabari Parker back sometime around the All-Star break, and if he can pick up where he left off, it’ll give them a massive boost offensively. Jabari was averaging over 20 PPG and shooting over 36% from three before he went down.

I think the Bucks will keep the pedal to the metal all season long as they announce their presence as a legit team, and as a result the wins will pile up. They are young and hungry, and will enjoy the hell out of wrecking people. The main thing keeping me from vaulting them all the way to the top spot, and giving them serious consideration to make the Finals, is the fact that they’re coached by Jason Kidd. I have no idea if he’s a good coach or not. He does completely inexplicable things all the time, but then he’ll counteract that by pushing all of the right buttons for a few games in a row. Much like the rest of the Bucks, there’s room for him to take the next step forward and become one of the league’s best. 

1. Boston Celtics. I swear this isn’t me being a homer. The Celtics are loaded and they have a very good coach. It’ll likely take them a bit to figure out how to play together, but once they get the hang of things, they’re gonna be really good. Basically everyone has a Celtics-Cavaliers Eastern Conference Finals set in stone at this point. But, whereas the Cavs have the kind of well-earned confidence that allows them to not give a rat’s ass about the regular season and homecourt advantage, the Celtics aren’t there yet. I think getting homecourt for a potential playoff showdown with the Cavs is really important to them, and as a result they won’t let up during the season. Even if Kyrie Irving does miss games, as he’s wont to do, the roster is deep enough that they should still be able to hang with most teams even without him. When you have a team with this amount of talent trying to win as many games as possible, playing in a weak conference, they’re gonna put up a enough Ws to lock up a #1 seed.

Whew! That’s it for the East, be sure to come back next time for my thoroughly uninformed opinions on the West!

[preciousmetals0]

Will Netflix Bow to Baby Yoda?

Will Netflix Bow to Baby Yoda?:

All We Are Saying

Ev’rybody’s talking ’bout revolution, evolution, regulation, meditations, United Nations…

But all the Federal Reserve is saying is give quantitative easing (QE) a chance. Actually, the Fed isn’t saying that … directly, anyway. (Sorry for the poor lead-in, John.)

Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell held U.S. interest rates steady and promised to keep lending markets stable. Practically everyone on Wall Street expected this, and practically everyone is talking about steady interest rates.

However, what few are talking about is the fact that the Fed just flooded the repo market with $70.2 billion in temporary liquidity. This is at least the fourth time the overnight lending market (aka the repo market) has created enough of a stir to gain Great Stuff’s attention. And if it’s getting my attention, it should get yours.

The repo problem first reared its ugly head back in September, when the Fed dumped $128 billion into the repo market to stabilize liquidity for bank reserves. Wall Street brushed the occurrence off like it was no big deal.

But it happened again in October, prompting the Fed to establish a program to provide $60 billion in liquidity per month to address the problem.

And, as you already know, that $60 billion wasn’t enough. This time, the Fed needed to drop $70.2 billion in temporary lending funds into the market.

The problem here is that if the repo market dries up, there is no “lender of last resort” to financial institutions, hedge funds and, apparently, publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs).

But while REITs got a bad name following last month’s revelation on AGNC, a recent study by the Bank for International Settlements indicates that big banks and hedge funds are more to blame. With banks concentrating more of their holdings in U.S. Treasurys, it’s limited “their ability to supply funding at short notice in repo markets,” the report said.

The Takeaway:

The time for downplaying the repo market’s woes is gone. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to $4.07 trillion from bailing out the repo market. That’s no small feat.

Something is seriously — possibly systemically — wrong with the financial markets right now … and the Fed is running around like a cartoon character on a sinking ship, plugging holes with its fingers.

What’s more, the problem isn’t limited to the U.S. Issues are now becoming apparent in Europe’s $9 trillion repo market.

Nobody likes the term quantitative easing (QE), but when the Fed dumps billions into the market to rescue financial firms, what else would you call it?

It’s time Wall Street and the Federal Reserve address the elephant in the room. Something is decidedly wrong. A large financial institution — maybe a large bank or hedge fund — or two (or three) is in trouble. Right now, we’re putting Band-Aids on the problem, hoping it’ll go away.

It won’t. There’s a reason why Credit Suisse believes that the Fed will need to launch a “QE4” to help shore up the repo market’s cash crunch. And the sooner we find out what that is and address it, the better.

The Good: The Wearables Wonder

I don’t get the wearables market. Specifically, things like Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) AirPods and Apple Watch do nothing for me. I haven’t worn a watch since I got a smartphone, and I have a set of Bluetooth earbuds that I paid less than $30 for.

Clearly, I’m not Apple’s target market. But while I might be a curmudgeon when it comes to wearables, the market is reportedly huge. Both Bank of America and Evercore ISI lifted their price targets on AAPL shares today — BofA from $270 to $290 and Evercore to $305 from $275.

Both ratings firms cited strong demand for AirPods and the Apple Watch. Both cited strong margins on Apple’s wearables products, with favorable sales figures sure to come out of the holiday season. Both also noted low expectations for the iPhone 11, stating that the iPhone would outperform this year.

Personally, I’m more hyped about the growth in Apple’s services business … but not hyped enough to recommend buying the stock just yet.

The Bad: Down on the Depot

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) is holding its analyst day tomorrow, and the company decided to get out in front of the event to set expectations.

Unfortunately, there appears to be a bit of a disconnect between HD and analysts on this front.

Home Depot says it expects 2020 sales growth of 3.5% to 4%, same-store sales growth of 3.5% to 4% and operating margins of 14%.

Analysts, however, expect 2020 sales growth of 4.4% and same-store sales growth of 4.3%. Kind of a bummer, right?

Investors think so, and HD shares are down nearly 2% as a result. Home Depot will have some ’splaining to do at tomorrow’s event.

The Ugly: Nothing but Netflix No Longer

The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) launched Disney+ and is revamping Hulu. Viacom and CBS completed the merger to become, well, ViacomCBS Inc. (NYSE: CBS) and is backing Pluto TV hard. Even Apple’s Apple TV+ is gaining traction.

The streaming world just got a lot more complicated for Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX). The OG content streamer is still king of the market, but everyone is gunning for the top. And they’re doing so with much lower prices than Netflix.

Because of this, Needham analyst Laura Martin downgraded NFLX to underperform this week. Martin believes that Netflix will lose 4 million U.S. subscribers in 2020 due to these lower-cost competitors. To offset the competition, Martin said that Netflix needs to launch a lower-cost subscription option and consider supporting this tier with ads.

The lower-cost plan isn’t a bad idea, but ad support will turn many subscribers off. I know that I cut the cord to both lower my costs and get rid of ads. I pay for the higher-tier Hulu plan just to avoid ads.

I still remember that time long, long ago when there were no ads on cable TV. (Anyone else remember that?) I hated when they started appearing on cable. I paid for the service, not for the ads. It’s the same with streaming. Start putting ads in my streaming, and I’ll find somewhere else to spend my money … or go the free route with Pluto TV. (Seriously, ViacomCBS is onto something big here.)

That said, if Netflix does lose 4 million customers next year, it may have no other choice but to follow Martin’s suggestions.

There’s so much Great Stuff out there today that we’re giving you a two-for-one deal on funny today. (This is getting out of hand; now there are two of them!)

Aah … a throwback to the infamous “people familiar with the matter.”

Umm … thanks, SEC? I don’t know if it’s funnier that the SEC tweeted this or that it really should be taken as serious advice.

Great Stuff: Help Your Friends Make Billions!

Are you hoarding all this Great Stuff for yourself?

I don’t blame you. If I had a financial e-zine with a trading chart that could help me make billions, I’d keep it quiet too.

But no … no! Shame on you for not sharing!

Where’s your holiday spirit?

Sharing is caring, and Great Stuff cares.

So, if you have a friend who still gets their daily financial news in that dry, Waspy old format from the major financial publications, forward them today’s copy of Great Stuff.

Liven up their day. Help them make billions too!

They’ll thank you for it.

Finally, don’t forget to like and follow Great Stuff on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram!

Until next time, good trading!

Regards,

Joseph Hargett

Great Stuff Managing Editor, Banyan Hill Publishing

[goldira01]

All We Are Saying

Ev’rybody’s talking ’bout revolution, evolution, regulation, meditations, United Nations…

But all the Federal Reserve is saying is give quantitative easing (QE) a chance. Actually, the Fed isn’t saying that … directly, anyway. (Sorry for the poor lead-in, John.)

Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell held U.S. interest rates steady and promised to keep lending markets stable. Practically everyone on Wall Street expected this, and practically everyone is talking about steady interest rates.

However, what few are talking about is the fact that the Fed just flooded the repo market with $70.2 billion in temporary liquidity. This is at least the fourth time the overnight lending market (aka the repo market) has created enough of a stir to gain Great Stuff’s attention. And if it’s getting my attention, it should get yours.

The repo problem first reared its ugly head back in September, when the Fed dumped $128 billion into the repo market to stabilize liquidity for bank reserves. Wall Street brushed the occurrence off like it was no big deal.

But it happened again in October, prompting the Fed to establish a program to provide $60 billion in liquidity per month to address the problem.

And, as you already know, that $60 billion wasn’t enough. This time, the Fed needed to drop $70.2 billion in temporary lending funds into the market.

The problem here is that if the repo market dries up, there is no “lender of last resort” to financial institutions, hedge funds and, apparently, publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs).

But while REITs got a bad name following last month’s revelation on AGNC, a recent study by the Bank for International Settlements indicates that big banks and hedge funds are more to blame. With banks concentrating more of their holdings in U.S. Treasurys, it’s limited “their ability to supply funding at short notice in repo markets,” the report said.

The Takeaway:

The time for downplaying the repo market’s woes is gone. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to $4.07 trillion from bailing out the repo market. That’s no small feat.

Something is seriously — possibly systemically — wrong with the financial markets right now … and the Fed is running around like a cartoon character on a sinking ship, plugging holes with its fingers.

What’s more, the problem isn’t limited to the U.S. Issues are now becoming apparent in Europe’s $9 trillion repo market.

Nobody likes the term quantitative easing (QE), but when the Fed dumps billions into the market to rescue financial firms, what else would you call it?

It’s time Wall Street and the Federal Reserve address the elephant in the room. Something is decidedly wrong. A large financial institution — maybe a large bank or hedge fund — or two (or three) is in trouble. Right now, we’re putting Band-Aids on the problem, hoping it’ll go away.

It won’t. There’s a reason why Credit Suisse believes that the Fed will need to launch a “QE4” to help shore up the repo market’s cash crunch. And the sooner we find out what that is and address it, the better.

The Good: The Wearables Wonder

I don’t get the wearables market. Specifically, things like Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) AirPods and Apple Watch do nothing for me. I haven’t worn a watch since I got a smartphone, and I have a set of Bluetooth earbuds that I paid less than $30 for.

Clearly, I’m not Apple’s target market. But while I might be a curmudgeon when it comes to wearables, the market is reportedly huge. Both Bank of America and Evercore ISI lifted their price targets on AAPL shares today — BofA from $270 to $290 and Evercore to $305 from $275.

Both ratings firms cited strong demand for AirPods and the Apple Watch. Both cited strong margins on Apple’s wearables products, with favorable sales figures sure to come out of the holiday season. Both also noted low expectations for the iPhone 11, stating that the iPhone would outperform this year.

Personally, I’m more hyped about the growth in Apple’s services business … but not hyped enough to recommend buying the stock just yet.

The Bad: Down on the Depot

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) is holding its analyst day tomorrow, and the company decided to get out in front of the event to set expectations.

Unfortunately, there appears to be a bit of a disconnect between HD and analysts on this front.

Home Depot says it expects 2020 sales growth of 3.5% to 4%, same-store sales growth of 3.5% to 4% and operating margins of 14%.

Analysts, however, expect 2020 sales growth of 4.4% and same-store sales growth of 4.3%. Kind of a bummer, right?

Investors think so, and HD shares are down nearly 2% as a result. Home Depot will have some ’splaining to do at tomorrow’s event.

The Ugly: Nothing but Netflix No Longer

The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) launched Disney+ and is revamping Hulu. Viacom and CBS completed the merger to become, well, ViacomCBS Inc. (NYSE: CBS) and is backing Pluto TV hard. Even Apple’s Apple TV+ is gaining traction.

The streaming world just got a lot more complicated for Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX). The OG content streamer is still king of the market, but everyone is gunning for the top. And they’re doing so with much lower prices than Netflix.

Because of this, Needham analyst Laura Martin downgraded NFLX to underperform this week. Martin believes that Netflix will lose 4 million U.S. subscribers in 2020 due to these lower-cost competitors. To offset the competition, Martin said that Netflix needs to launch a lower-cost subscription option and consider supporting this tier with ads.

The lower-cost plan isn’t a bad idea, but ad support will turn many subscribers off. I know that I cut the cord to both lower my costs and get rid of ads. I pay for the higher-tier Hulu plan just to avoid ads.

I still remember that time long, long ago when there were no ads on cable TV. (Anyone else remember that?) I hated when they started appearing on cable. I paid for the service, not for the ads. It’s the same with streaming. Start putting ads in my streaming, and I’ll find somewhere else to spend my money … or go the free route with Pluto TV. (Seriously, ViacomCBS is onto something big here.)

That said, if Netflix does lose 4 million customers next year, it may have no other choice but to follow Martin’s suggestions.

There’s so much Great Stuff out there today that we’re giving you a two-for-one deal on funny today. (This is getting out of hand; now there are two of them!)

Aah … a throwback to the infamous “people familiar with the matter.”

Umm … thanks, SEC? I don’t know if it’s funnier that the SEC tweeted this or that it really should be taken as serious advice.

Great Stuff: Help Your Friends Make Billions!

Are you hoarding all this Great Stuff for yourself?

I don’t blame you. If I had a financial e-zine with a trading chart that could help me make billions, I’d keep it quiet too.

But no … no! Shame on you for not sharing!

Where’s your holiday spirit?

Sharing is caring, and Great Stuff cares.

So, if you have a friend who still gets their daily financial news in that dry, Waspy old format from the major financial publications, forward them today’s copy of Great Stuff.

Liven up their day. Help them make billions too!

They’ll thank you for it.

Finally, don’t forget to like and follow Great Stuff on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram!

Until next time, good trading!

Regards,

Joseph Hargett

Great Stuff Managing Editor, Banyan Hill Publishing

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

Puck Daddy Countdown: No guarantees for Henrik Zetterberg

Has Henrik Zetterberg played his last game? (Getty)

6. Arbitration

One of the things that’s stupid about arbitration in the NHL is that every time you hear “The team came in at $1 million and the player is asking for $3 million,” you can feel good about betting your entire life savings on “The arbitrator’s going to give him $2 million.”

A lawyer on Twitter with a locked account who I’m therefore not going to link to said there’s a pretty simple reason for this: If an arbitrator goes in one direction or the other — that is, if the player or team makes a compelling case for their number — the side that “loses” has the power to fire that arbitrator. If you split the difference, nobody’s happy and everyone is simultaneously.

But that kinda takes all the intrigue out of the arbitration process, and really makes you wonder how on earth Jacob Trouba’s took six damn hours. The artifice of it is appalling — why not just come up with your numbers and split the difference right away — but that’s all billable hours I guess.

Anyway, it’s stupid.

5. Overvaluing your own players

So the Canucks re-signed Troy Stecher the other day to a two-year deal with a $2.325 AAV, which sounds just about right I think. But the way that worked out for Canucks fans, you’d think they just got the steal of the century. Oh my god Troy Stecher, wow he’s great!!!

And it’s like, “Is he?”

Don’t get me wrong, he seems like he’s fine. But he doesn’t really move the needle in terms of, say, underlying numbers and he has a grand total of 35 points in 139 career games and he’s already 24 years old.

This is one of those things where he was highly touted coming out of college (probably a little too highly) because he scored a good (but not massive) amount on a very good team. This is a guy who averaged less than 19 minutes a night and was basically used as the sheltered No. 4 defenseman on a Canucks team with Mike Del Zotto as the No. 2, so you tell me how good he is, really.

The answer seems to be “not very.” Don’t get me wrong, it’s good to have useful depth players and he’s definitely one of them, but lower-end middle-pair defenseman seems to be his quality level, if you even want to call him that much, aren’t the kinds of guys you should be celebrating if you’re even moderately well-run. The Canucks are of course not moderately well-run, so fair play there, but does it really serve you to get your hopes up about a guy who can’t even crack this Canucks team’s top-three? I feel like probably it doesn’t.

4. Zetterberg?

Seems like there’s not a lot of info out there right now about whether Henrik Zetterberg — who very quietly had 11 goals and 45 assists in a lost season at age 37 — is going to play next season, which is weird.

I know everyone wants to give all due caution with respect to his health and, yeah, he’s 38 so that’s pretty old for a hockey guy of any quality, let alone one who probably doesn’t want to just be a token addition because of Who He Is.

But still, it’s weird that we might have seen Zetterberg play his last game (in the NHL at least) to literally no fanfare. Imagine if he just kinda retires? That would be bizarre.

(By the way, did you know Zetterberg doesn’t have 1,000 career points? He’s only at 960. Now granted, 22 other guys over 37 have scored 40 in a season in the lockout era, nine of them more than once.  Zetterberg is absolutely good enough to do that. If he can stay actually play and his team doesn’t totally crap out on them. Neither of those things seem like guarantees. Bummer.)

3. Getting your hopes up

Speaking of the Canucks, there sure seems to be a lot of talk about whether Quinn Hughes, who apparently dazzled at rookie camp, will bail on the University of Michigan to sign with Vancouver before the season starts.

I could see it going either way, to be honest. I don’t think Hughes would struggle at the NHL level because of what he did at Worlds and how he plays a very modern game. But at the same time, what would he play in the NHL, like 15 or 16 minutes a night? At Michigan he would probably play more like 25-plus, get top power play minutes, all that kind of stuff.

It’s an interesting question as to what’s better for his development in the long run, but if it’s me making the call here I don’t try to sign him despite the local pressure. Let him make that decision if he wants to but I’m not leaning on him at all.

Zach Werenski, a guy I’ve compared Hughes to a lot (not just because they both went to Michigan), went back for a second season and now he’s really good. Would he have helped in a doomed season in Columbus a few years ago? I dunno, but probably not. Hughes is in the same boat. Why burn a year of his ELC when the team’s gonna stink?

2. Making a comeback

All this stuff about “Jaromir Jagr isn’t sure about an NHL return this season but it probably won’t happen” is some very “no kidding” stuff. The Flames bounced him, no one was interested because he was injured after that.

He says it’s his goal to make it back and I believe him, but he’s 46 and might not be able to stay healthy. Might be the end of the line, at least in North America. That, too, is a bummer.

1. The waiting game

The other thing I don’t like about arbitration is how spread out it is. That’s done for logistical reasons, obviously, but there are a few guys whose numbers will be really interesting if the process gets that far.

Brandon Montour today can maybe make a case for a decent chunk of change.

Jason Zucker on July 28 will be fascinating.

I wanna see that Cody Ceci number on Aug. 1 for a real solid laugh, probably on both sides.

Kevin Hayes on Aug. 2 and Mark Stone on Aug. 3 are two guys I bet get super lowballed by their teams.

And then on Aug. 4, that William Karlsson hearing could be hysterical.

Again, that’s all “if it gets that far,” which it so often doesn’t. But those are the guys where I’m really hoping it gets that far.

(Not ranked this week: Unsigned veterans.

And speaking of unsigned free agents, one of the things I always think sucks at this time of year, but which definitely makes sense from a team perspective, is when a guy like Toby Enstrom has to sit around all summer waiting for the phone to ring. These are guys who can play a bit but probably isn’t worth a huge multi-year deal or anything, and clubs just take a ton of caution with them.

Like obviously it behooves a team that has use for an early-to-mid-30s player to just give him a training camp invite in September, because it’s not like there’s a line of employers around the block for him. And it’s not just Enstrom, because there’s always a handful of guys who can meaningfully contribute but it’s easier to just give them a PTO and, maybe, a $1 million, one-year deal.

But for those guys? No good.)

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)