#it Doesnt help that i know 90% of what to expect out of these events. u'd think it would. but no.

[wetpapert0wel]

waaaah i wanna play more voices of the void but its scary scary scary

[stuck-in-the-ghost-zone]

WHAT TERRIBLE THINGS ARE YOU DOING TO MY BUG [mallrad] [i saw ur repost of nhw mal lmao]

I NEEEEED INFROMATION RN PLEASE FEEL FREE TO INFODUMP AS MUCH AS YOU WANT PLEASE

HI KOI!!!!!!!!!! sorry this has taken me forever to answer ive had a busy work week ouagh. but its MAL TIME NOW. well. technically amity time bc im gonna talk about the setting in general because i love it. whatever go my scarab!

IM GOING TO ANSWER THIS ASSUMING U KNOW WHAT NHW IS. IF YOU DONT IM SO SORRY but also the masterpost is HERE which has basically all the context u need i think.

awesome place to start is reading This Post because it basically lays out the essentials for amity in general and gives you a good idea of their whole deal (theres also this one. which is a joke. but its my favorite ever and i think you will appreciate the clarence)

since i mostly ran thru the basics of their plot timeline super quick in that post i can get into details in this one :] putting a lot of it under the cut so its not 12 miles long hehe

i really like leaving a lot of the amity stuff to be mystery partially because it will literally NEVER come up in the "canon timeline" or whatever since it all happened x number of years ago and partially because giving it an air of mystery makes it seem more myth/legend than anything concrete. which!! since its supposed to be the nhw equivalent of the spirit world i love the idea that its vague and mysterious and hard to comprehend that the Chaos Zone (colloquial name for the quarantine area around the city where they keep the trickster trapped) used to be like. a relatively peaceful idyllic city with only a small handful of capes and not a lot of action. that being said i do in fact have clam flavored brain worms which means i cannot help thinking about clarence and mal in so much detail that is SO unnecessary to the rest of the story other than serving to make what happened to them more tragic.

ANYWAY. all that being said that is my excuse for not having any solid ideas on mals trigger event. ive kind of played around with the idea that he's a case 53 (cauldron dropped him into the city mid-ghoul transformation and full of amnesia so he had. basically no identity before then and no idea where or who or what he was so he just kind of started breaking things) but honestly i havent thought abt it all that much bc its just not that important. either way. he started out as an unaffiliated rogue/villain. as ghoul, he was in his brute form like 90% of the time and behaved pretty much like a less cannibalistic venom. just kind of like. causing damage just because he can. really the ONLY two capes in amity at the time were Whisperer (clarence) and Afterlife (duck) (<< first duck mention btw!). Afterlife is a lot more apathetic to things like this (hes old. hes tired. hes survived WELL past the cape life expectancy but theres no real protocol for capes retiring because usually they just. die. so hes still here) and he really only responds to things he deems an emergency, and some rando causing property damage isnt enough to put ghoul on his radar. so that left Whisperer to deal with him. his powers are very nonviolent non-confrontational so his way of dealing with villains is to use his. basically tranquilizer powers to get them to stop doing whatever theyre doing (its a good thing amity is peaceful. this is NOT a. super great awesome offensive power and he can get very easily overwhelmed against more than one target). so he does this to Ghoul and since his he's a new cape and is not fully under control of his changer powers yet, his brute form drops as soon as hes calm and hes just. some sad disheveled looking guy.

so clarence sees this guy who is just. so incredibly lost. whether thats because of case 53 amnesia or like. post-trigger, post-changer state disorientation, hes just. like. pathetic. hes not being a villain because hes evil hes just doing things because he doesnt know what else to do. so clarence, who is way too kindhearted for his own good, offers to help him. and mal, who has probably never given this sort of softness in his life. just immediately fucking melts into it. of course he accepts that offer he has nothing else to do! he doesnt really care about being a hero or a villain or anything like that (having a morality crisis is boring and a waste of time) but this man is literally glowing and offering him a hand to hold and a purpose and something other than just mindless destruction

so mal drops the name Ghoul and gets his changer powers better under control and properly develops his master powers instead of his brute powers and becomes what essentially ends up being Whisperer's sidekick under the new name Purgatory (which. i really made on a whim at the time but now that i have had time to think about it really has a lot of significance to his character and state of mind and it makes me SICK)

mal has a sort of hero worship crush on clarence like. thats His Hero. thats the guy who picked him up off the ground and helped him stand out of the kindness of his heart and they know each other out of costume now and even in his civilian life clarence is funny and laid back and so easy to talk to and. mal is not those things. god he is so down bad. relationship wise i will point to this convo which i still stand by

but i think like. both in and out of costume theyre kind of inseparable. mal is like. suuuper super protective over clarence to the point where its kind of an intimidation factor to other people. scary dog privilege or whatever. i like to refer to it as like... if clarence was a prince mal would be his loyal knight. if mal was an animal he would be a falcon (fast, sharp, dangerous, always returns to its master etc etc etc).

its also really important to me that clarence DOES NOT see their relationship like this at all he is so. oblivious. or if hes not oblivious he just doesnt do anything about it or puts it out of his mind or whatever. i think one of clarences big flaws is that hes almost too laid back about certain things that he maybe should care about a little more? big "itll be fine" in situations where things . PROBABLY will not be fine if he doesnt do something about it. so while he doesnt really purposefully encourage mals weird hero worship with him he also doesnt really do anything to dissuade it either. so thats how we get to. where we get to. with them. ouhghhh boy.

i already talked abt this pretty in depth in the other post but trickster appears, kills clarence in front of mal, and it just BREAKS something fundamental in him. once the trickster throws him out of the city i think the prt has to drag him away kicking and screaming because theres NO way he would willingly walk away from that (ESPECIALLY because... clarence's body is still there. he never got a proper funeral or burial or anything hes just.... there on the street or on the roof of a building like hes nothing). they probably put him in some kind of custody which he inevitably breaks out of and goes out on his own. i think he tries to go back to the city only to find the walls already in place and no way to get in without fighting a LOT of soldiers and ripping through a lot of anti-cape measures. which he is emotionally willing to do, but hes not stupid. he knows he needs backup. so he seeks out the worlds most dangerous most awful notorious capes ever. and thats how he ends up with the slaughterhouse 9! his eventual goal with them is to manipulate them into helping him get back into amity and kill the trickster. which is OBVIOUSLY not how things turn out, but thats his motivation at least.

when wraith ends up in the public eye with the new haven wards and his costume is sooooo so eerily close to the whisperer, mal kind of Leaves the s9 for a bit? hes still a member and everything, he doesnt actively quit or betray them or anything bc thats like asking to get killed, but he stops travelling with them in order to. whats the nicest way i can say this. research? the wards. specifically wraith. that little unhinged piece of his mind that snapped when clarence was killed gives him this horrible idea that wraith is just.. clarence reincarnated. its probably been close to 20ish years since the amity incident at this point, so the timing even lines up close enough for him to be convinced. so that starts his weird obsession with william, which eventually involves him nominating william as a potential candidate to join the s9 in the trials (william has a Complex about this) and other fucked up things like the tide fridge (<< our loving name for when mal kidnaps tide and keeps him in jars or whatever in the spirit world in canon etc)

hes my favorite fucked up little guy!!!!!!! i hate him so much i want to hit him with hammers but also ive had a specific stained glass art piece depicting the biblical purgatory that i really want to draw as him and clarence so like. take that as you will. im obsessed with them i think abt them so much even though clarence has like no bearing on the actual plot of nhw since the whole "william is the next whisperer" thing is nonexistent. i got distracted writing this a FEW times so i maybe forgot some things so if theres anything else u want to know about them... hmu. i love 2 talk abt them so much <3

[channnel]

Okay, so- My drawing of Jules is nearly done BUT my hand hurts from drawing the flowers and my eyes hurt cause I've been staring at my tab for a week and my back's a banana now.

So, since I haven't posted some actual art in this blog- Here are my random headcanons of the brothers in My Dear hatchet man. This is purely fan-made, alright? I'm bored and this headcanons have been in my mind for months.

Claude

Claude fully knows that he looks good in dark colors and will not wear any other hues even if you paid him. Even if it's summer, he will still wear dark clothes.

The type of man that will glare down a kid in public if the kid is being a little shit (Same goes to the parent).

Claude would stare at wall for long minutes before answering a call from Jules.

Will judge Jules' healthy eating diet despite having the same exact diet.

The type of guy that hates being treated differently because he's handsome but also often uses the same treatment to get what he wants.

Nobody in his workplace know who he is. Nobody knows where he lives, nobody knows if he has any family- pretty sure that most of his ex-partners doesn't even know that he got younger brothers, and so on, and so forth. They just knew that Claude is a rich, good-looking photographer with a French accent.

Believes that Alan is probably working in an organized crime, he watches the news just in case Alan's name come out... Same goes to James.

Jules

Use filters, stickers and quotes in all of his social media post.

90% of what he says are all passive-aggressive and he genuinely thinks that he helps people.

Probably has a bit of a hoarding problem.

Would judge James' DIY hobby despite also doing it.

The type that would watch a kid being a little piece of shit and would promptly tell the nearest person where their parents at and judge their parenting style. same thing goes with noisy pets in public.

Would give Claude fruit bouquet everytime they meet cause Jules know damn well that Claude can't throw it out and will be force to appreciate and eat Jules' gift so it will not rot.

Would say to others that Alan simply move away and that they haven't talked for a long time. His neighbors and friends probably believed that Jules' younger brother is simply living in a cottage with a bunch of dogs and cats. Would also say made-up stories of Alan if his neighbors asked more before promptly shutting it down.

Alan (Honestly, I don't have much headcanons on the two younger bros)

Will recite the full script of any classic horror movie in rapid succession, filled with actions and diy sound effects. If it's night time, then get ready for him to shout out every words.

Still uses Canadian terms rather than the American one.

Sometimes wonder if he looks cool using other types of weapons instead of a hatchet. Knows a lot of trickshots with his hatchet.

Doesnt like statues.

knows every domestic dogs and cats in Doomsbury, he even has his own names for them and he probably knows the pets even more in a spiritual level.

is also the type that would glare down a kid if they're being an annoying piece of shit, and immediately disappear if the kid starts crying.

In college au, I like to headcanon that not only did the boss in that AU gave him a scholarship- but also hide an unfortunate event between Alan, a hatchet, and some guy.

James

⬆️That's him everytime he argued with someone, lost a friend, or had another break up.

Believes that Alan is now living in a forest away from society, which is somewhat accurate. Often thinks about Alan a lot, and wonder if he's doing okay after the incident- doesn't hide away the fact that Alan ran away and will tell what actually happened to very, very close friends of his.

The type of guy that would deliberately trip a kid in public without the parents noticing- especially if the kid is being a little shit.

"Shit, I accidentally have way too much fun solving those problems in my exam and now my brothers are gonna expect better from me" Got immediately accused of cheating.

Saw his two older brothers years after the incident but was disappointed to see that they haven't changed, so he doesn't talk to them nor accept Jules' multiple invites. Ended up changing his number after some time, did not regret about it.

Always give himself a pep talk everytime he woke up.

Can efficiently argue with someone in fluent sign language without pause, Style all of his clothes on his own, has wrote numerous songs in his guitar, very good at Parkour, and he can juggle three crowbars.

Dixon Dallas, Good lookin.

And that's all folks.

[violentviolette]

My bad if you've already answered this, but how do you go about not masking around those you consider/want to be truly important people? Like, it seems in my head difficult to go from "polite friendly person who is clearly mentally average and a nice chap" to "Hi names JoeBob, actually I literally cannot properly care about anyone you care about to the extent I know you want, and honestly can't quite care about you to that extent either, wanna be homies? Oh also I've faked like 90 percent of any emotion of showed you, have fun reassessing everything," ya dig?

generally speaking, i dont mask socially in environments where i might make friends in order to just avoid this issue entirely. so like, i mask at work and at family functions, but if i go to hangout with new people or to an event and the intention is to make actual friends, i just dont mask from the start. i feel that helps mitigate a lot of annoyance and also helps to quickly identify people who i know will understand and respect my limitations but if ur in a situation where u met someone while masking but now want to get closer to them and unmask, then its easiest to do it gradually and just be very upfront but not rude. like i think a lot of people underestimate how much word choice can help make a situation less awkward. cause like saying "i cant and will never care about u but lets be friends" is obviously never going to go over well and isnt even very true or accurate in the first place. but phrasing it not so hostile or aggressively is a lot more reasonable, something like "im not a very emotional or emotive person by nature, but people dont really react kindly to that so i tend to overperform emotions when i first meet someone. but once im more comfortable with ppl i tend to mellow out and show way less. it doesnt mean i suddenly hate u, im just getting more comfortable and being more true to my actual self" or stuff like "i dont really have the capacity to care deeply about people i dont know, and even ones i do know and care about, my feelings never reach as deep a place as other peoples. that doesnt mean i dont respect and like u or that i'll suddenly start treating u poorly. its just that my care is going to look very differently from a nuerotypical person"

its really just dozens and dozens of small conversations about urself where u dont lie about it. its an ongoing conversation. usually these kinda come up naturally when ur getting closer to people and learning more about eachother. but u can also sit someone down and have a more formal conversation. like "hey so ive got some stuff going on with my brain, heres how it works and what i am and am not capable of. i like to be upfront about it with people i wanna get closer to so there arent misunderstandings or hurt feelings when i dont react or respond the way ppl expect. i think ur really cool/fun/ect. and i wanna get closer and become better friends so i wanted to have this conversation so we could understand eachother better and i can be more authentic with u going forward"

the biggest thing imo is to frame it from a positive place because it is a positive thing. u respect and like this person, theyre important to u and u want to be genuine with them so that u can get closer in a real and healthy way. but u also need to be true to urself and ur own limitations in order to do that. and so coming at the conversations from that place usually helps a lot. and if the other person is chill and a geuine friend, usually they understand and they work with u. they respect where ur boundaries are and understand what u cant give, while appreciating and enjoying what u can together.

[todayisafridaynight]

No you're right, the file naming system helped a great deal in terms of being able to verify ages and certain events on the timeline (even some minor characters like Ushio have them, which is neat). Because like, Hoshino does specify in-game that Arakawa was 14 when he killed Toshio, but without a year that's not exactly helpful...

You normally have to do a lot of mental gymnastics to figure out Arakawa's age, to the point the only official profile that listed his age was wrong, so it was a HUGE find to have those straightforward numbers at the time (even if they aren't 100% accurate; Jo probably shouldn't be 21 with how Yokoyama says he ages his characters by year without setting birth dates, and Arakawa's 25 model is used for more scenes where he's not 25, But You Know).

#whats interesting is that arakawa's 90's-2000 model doesnt have an age attached to it. dont ask a woman her age ig idk <- this killed me but it also reminds me they did this unironically with Saeko

Actually wait forget the entire rest of this ask I wanna talk about what was going on with these profiles... they were SoA exclusives... but like girl... wrong age (he's 62 not 63)... favorite food is To Be Fair Something He Talks About LIKE It's His Favorite but is still a dish he's only had once in his lifetime... no hobbies or special abilities... trying to sassily sidestep not knowing Saeko's age... inability to decide whether to present alcoholism as a hobby or favorite food... ONLY Adachi having a disliked food...

Nanba and Ichi's are okay though :) but these crushed my soul for real if you can't trust a character profile what can you trust😭

Anyway If Nothing Else I hope you enjoy these relics :) I'm gonna go write in about stuff I forgot to mention before bye

leaving rn i totally forgot hoshino says arakawa's age BYE is it evident i havent watched the cutscenes outside of the arakawa family in a hot minute. cause its been A Hot Minute

jo's model being labeled 21 did make me scratch me head tho so im glad im not insane for thinking it was a Questionable label (even if i expected myself to be wrong about SOMETHING in that post anyway LMAO)

the official bios are gutting me tho like yeah i GUESS alcoholism is a hobby but im sure bestie has more than that.... like her age..... cmon now...

[hohoz]

The ones that suffer the most

I wanted to talk about this for a long time.

I’m a Resident evil addicted, I finished almost every RE game released and I must say that Capcom made some poor choices regarding Jill and Chris, they are EASILY the most mistreated characters in RE Franchise. 

But let’s explain why is that: 

Jill and Chris are survivors, they had to survive in a mansion with a lot of puzzles and zombies, while looking for items that could help them to progress and find a way to reach Brad. 

When they arrive at STARS Office, they are revolted that Umbrella did all that under their noses and innocents were dying because of that and they explained EVERYTHING in a report - but Irons made that go away. 

In the ORIGINAL RE3 we had this special file (Jill’s Diary) 

August 7th Two weeks have passed since that day. My wounds have been healed, but I just can't forget it. For most people, it's history now. But for me, whenever I close my eyes, it all comes back clearly. Zombies eating people's flesh and the screams of my teammates dying. No, the wounds in my heart are not healed yet...

August 13th Chris has been causing a lot of trouble recently. What's with him? He seldom talks to the other police members and is constantly irritated. The other day, he punched Elran of the Boy's Crime department just for accidentally splashing Chris's face with coffee. I immediately stopped Chris, but when he saw me he just gave me a wink and walked away. I wonder what happened to him...

August 15th Midnight. Chris, who has been on a leave of absence for a "vacation," called me so I visited his apartment. As soon as I walked into his room, he showed me a couple of pieces of paper. They were part of a virus research report entitled as simply as "G". Then Chris told me that, "The nightmare still continues." He went on to say that, "It's not over yet." Ever since that day, he has been fighting all by himself without rest, without even telling me.

August 24th Chris left the town today to go to Europe. Barry told me that he would send his family to Canada and then he would follow Chris. I decided to remain in Raccoon City for a while because I know that the research facility in this city will be very important to this entire case. In a month or so, I'll be joining with them somewhere in Europe. That's when my real battle begins...

For some weird reason this file isn’t available in RE3 Remake. 

But ok, here we see that Chris was doing some investigation - in the RE2RMK  you could see this letter that Chris left in a way that normal people wouldn't understand - the only thing that Claire says is that “doesnt look like him” but how normies would understand what Chris is like is he is not well represented in media ??????????????????

And Jill had all the detective work in her wall. 

So far so good - we understand the basics about them - they are Special police force, the elite, they had a traumatic experience and they survived to tell the story. 

Some problems until now:

Jill had a MAJOR personality change in RE3 RMK- I honestly like most of that, she is a badass in the originals and she is a badass in the rmk but I still dislike the fact that she swears all the time (specially because in RE1, RE Rev, RE5 she doesn't do that) 

We can tell a lot about her personality just looking at her room, but I still miss some stuff (I had expectations - so this is not a real problem. but still) like a Vinyl player (since she is probably into classical music), some letters from her father so new players can understand her origin and why is she so good in lockpicking and more about her dog (she had a pic in the original that could’ve been her boyfriend but it was replaced by a dog in RE2 rmk but in RE3 Rmk there in no dog) 

Okay - after you finish the game the only thing we see is this: 

In my opinion this is Chris since he is always associated with Green colors while Jill is associated with blue. 

So my speculation here is that she found him while in the original we had this: 

This is not a major chance but still is important (lore of course - duh) but the problem here is that while Jill is looking for him - Code Veronica is happening. 

So I can only assume two things, they did not show him because they DON’T HAVE A FACE FOR HIM or I am wrong and that is Jill, but if that is Jill so why there is no decent epilogue like the original ? 

Okay, now we are arriving in the real trouble area

I will do RE5 first and the Wii and Rev1 (even tho those two comes first in the lore) 

RESIDENT EVIL 5 

So before the game was release we had some propaganda, including this: 

So have in mind that Jill was dead, I thought that she died and RE5 would explain that shit. 

But in the beginning we see that Chris is looking for her and have in mind that Chris HAD A MAJOR CHANCE IN HIS APPEARANCE, and I’m not talking about his muscles. 

I will not address Chris in CV since he was good in that game but I the team that made CV also made the original, it had CONSISTENCE. 

Here we have Chris, he’s THE classical american soldier protagonist from Hollywood in the 80′s/90′s and he had some omage to TOPGUN

He also shares some traits with his sister

A major trait here is that HE HAS BLUE EYES, typical good looking soldier from US. 

and now let’s have a look at Chris in RE5...

Yeah... I still hate this face even tho I love his Character in this game, this ugly a** monkey looking mf and he had a lot of steroids

So we have some lore to him in RE5, Jill and Chris went to a mansion looking for Spencer (one of the fathers of Umbrella and the one that was behind project Wesker, he wanted to do this Virus so he could live forever, so RE has a good lore, it’s not just about zombies) but when they found him, he was dead and Wesker was by his side, in a fight Jill sacrificed herself to save Chris’s life. 

Chris started doing mission after mission because her body was never found, and he made a name for himself, he became a ‘legend’ inside BSAA and you can see that in the beginning of RE5.

The reason behind the muscles was probably to fight Wesker mano to mano but still is not well made, it really felt weird playing for the first time. 

So now we have a problem here, there is thing that you use in a narrative that is to make someone strong af powerless, and they did that to Jill. (a good example of this is in TWD- Ricky is a fucking legend and Negan made him powerless in the face of a event) 

Jill was used in a Boss fight and that is it... She is not in the game as a character, she is being manipulated and her whole design was changed, she looks like Nina from Tekken. WTF. - BTW, the fact that Wesker had mind control over her created 1000 fics of sex 

 So that is it, my main problem here isnt Jill itself, but it’s the fact that they used her character as a boss even tho she is the heroine, she never appears in RE lore again until some guy inside Capcom said “Well people are asking about Jill so let’s place a file in Rev2 saying that she is in rehab” 

The only time that she appears again is in a 3DS NINTENDO ONLY game, it felt that Capcom simply don’t care about her character. 

By the way Revelations 1 is a great game and was adaptable some years later for PC and consoles

But you think that this is bad, wait until we arrive at RESIDENT EVIL 6 

When I learned that Jill was not in RE6 I was mad... But after I played that game I said “thank you God” that game was bad, transformers kind of bad, it had bad writing, the lore was all over the place and Chris was the one that suffered the most in this game. 

He was responsible for the death of an entire squad, suffered amnesia and people still wanted him in the command 

THEY MADE HIM AN ALCOHOLIC 

The golden boy of BSAA reduced to THIS. 

By the way, the director said that HE WANTED TO KILL CHRIS IN THIS GAME to SUBVERT EXPECTATIONS - so if you liked Piers now that he died only because of that. 

So now let’s analyse what we know: 

The first 2 main characters are not well represented in media until RE6, they don’t know how to re introduce Jill in the games and Chris was reduced to a normal guy at a Russian bar;

But it gets worse... 

Capcom LOVE Leon, we know that. he is always the hero, he is the protagonist in almost every movie and he is always the cool guy so when he get’s a new model, he looks like this:

But When Chris get’s a new face he look like this: 

WHO DAFUQ ARE U, no offense to the model but he has NEGATIVE JAW LINE.

And still he doesn't look like Claire’s brother, there is no blue/green eyes and he looks younger that he was in 6 (and 6 still uses that ugly character model) 

But let’s go in the lore- we HAVE 0 info on Jill in RE6 / RE7 and no sight of her in RE8 

And speaking of which, they tried to make Chris the bad guy in the trailer so when we play we see “Ohhhh he was not the bad guy, that happened and that is why he did that” 

But still... 

If they are going to do that to his character don’t use this character, shit ! Do something with that Wesker’s son that made 0 sense in RE6 but leave Chris out of this - it really feels that they simply don’t know how to treat him right

And you may think that I may be complaining a lot because of his appearance

But this is him in RE8  

(to me this is some random dude from Russia) 

And this is him in RE:Verse (that is going to be release TOGETHER) 

So this tells me that they have 0 clue of how to handle his looks

Jill got RE3Rmk but it felt like a cheap game compared to RE2Rmk where the original RE3 was SO MUCH BETTER

And this is bad because there are so many new fans joining the fandom only to see 2 great characters suffering from poor director’s choices. 

I’m sorry about this rant, if you like Chris face and looks its okay, really, but dont tell me that Chris from 5/6/8 is the same from 1/CV and if you think im wrong about Jill its fine, but she is an amazing character that could have so much more impact in RE universe (I mean, she never even appeared in a RE movie - animations) 

But it’s sad to see so many characters that receive good representation in media and good games/lore while Jill get’s almost none and Chris is handled like random face guy. 

I was going to talk a little bit more about Rev 1 and RE Umbrella Chronicles but there is no need since Im mad right now and it seems that Capcom has 0 interest in making Code Veronica and Umbrella’s fall after that since their fav boy Leon need a rmk in RE4 even tho RE4 is not that old. 

Bonus:

Fun fact: Chris served in the Air force, so yeah, to me even Tom Cruise looks more like Chris than Chris from the games

[genshinconfessions]

I had my expectations low as I've said and it's like, I don't know. I feel thankful they're giving us anything at all. They update consistently with story, and there's always an event going on.

I think people who rush through the story and the events and everything are the ones that complain about no endgame content. It's the same for a (real) MMO that I play, people rush through the MSQ & the raids and then complain there's nothing but leveling, even though there's... so much to do in that game. Much more than Genshin, too.

People feel very entitled. I once fought with someone about how whales would appreciate free things too. He kept insisting he was a whale (but he... isn't, by the definition of the term) and he was specifically talking about the community event rewards. He was saying it's stupid that it's a lottery and just for only 300 primos etc because every whale would appreciate 300 primos. And it was so strange to me. Like in what universe would a whale really care about a free month of Welkin? If I was a whale (I'm a dolphin), and I had enough disposable income to be a whale, I would be like, wow! free things! but that's about it. Like I wouldn't be disappointed to not get the thing worth 5$ if I'm spending so much more all the time, but I also wouldn't pass it up if I did end up getting it.

One of my friends and I were talking today and she feels the same way. Like we're both over caring about anniv. rewards solely because the fandom keeps talking about how disappointing it is. They're review bombing genshin in playstore, for instance, demanding things. But yet they will still continue to play the game. It's such a weird feeling because if I don't like playing something or don't like the ideals behind a company, I will stop playing.

The same friend mentioned how people feel this way because they're addicted to the gacha and they're only playing the game to wish as the "endgame". Like they only want to wish on every banner or something. And I know that feeling - I was addicted to one gacha a few years ago (and I could have been considered a whale then). It got so bad that I had to stop playing the game I loved so much because I loved all the characters and the stories, but I literally would just keep charging just because of the thrill. It's gambling addiction and it's real and it's perhaps even worse because you don't receive anything physical in return sometimes, like a casino.

Anyway, man. I really love this new event. I love the story so much! Xiangling doesn't get a lot of time in game for the most part, so I'm excited to see her back. And Baizhu and Hu Tao!!! Two of my favorites!!!!! I also like all the interactions from characters from a different angle, like Ningguang and Beidou! And Keqing and Xiangling are sooo cute. I'm also excited to see more adepti... So honestly, I'm having a good anniversary, and I hope everyone else does too!!!

- SusZhongli

people complain how genshin has a cap limit on resin or how they wont give more discounts for the anniversary or about their gacha system, but then simultaneously complain about how genshin doesnt care about them. like as you said gachas can get really addicting and you end up just pumping out money and time, so genshins resin caps and their lack of discounting the paid content to attract more buyers is a sign to me that they do care about their players. i assume they do this so people wont become ridiculously addicted and its to help people who have that problem with gacha games. the game tries to get you to focus on the story aspects and all the other content and the resin caps and lack of discounts i think are because of that. honestly the pity system on genshin's banners are really nice too because you know exactly what youre getting since theres a 50/50 which doesnt exist in a lot of gachas. so even if you do want to spend money on a character you at least know to only spend up to 90 wishes at a time. so yeah i think they arent doing discounts or giving more resin or doing something with the gacha for the anniversary because they actually do care about their players and dont want people with addictions to go around blowing so much money away. at the same time they are giving free stuff, just not as much as what everyone wants. people are greedy and weird i dont know why they keep playing either. couldnt be me i stop playing genshin when i get bored of it and then play again when i want to because its a relaxing and pretty game. its not meant to be stressful this fandom is just on straight crack.

- keith

.

sighhh. i really am tired of this debate (nothing against you, suszhong! you just happened to send this in right after we said no more hAHA).

i would encourage everyone to look at this post by @/dainsloaf.diary on instagram. it's just a thread on how many primogems these content creators (and the majority of them are whales) actually get. in particular, tectone received 15k primos (and possibly more). he spends a lot on gacha games, but that's his problem. if i was getting 15k+ primos just for promoting this game, i wouldn't be complaining at all.

no, i don't like tectone, and this reply was indeed meant to criticize him, but not for his person, only for his hypocrisy.

- katheryne from liyue

[guyinlovewitheremika]

Oooh could you expand on why you liked the op?? I honestly don't know what to make of it yet, especially since it felt so different from other ops, but I'd love to hear your thoughts!

Absolutely will do!! This took longer than I wanted cause everytime I sat down to write I started getting distracted from the OP and just listening to it on repeat lmao

To start this off, I should add that throughout the week leading up to release date, I was following a couple of leakers on twitter who did drop some info on the OP; mainly that Shinsei Kamattechan were returning, the title, that it wasnt gonna feature any characters and instead be a metaphor for the “cruelty of war”. Knowing all of that had me pretty excited but also gave me the right expectations, so it wasnt too jarring to see at first. 

But, to jump into this, first of all, I just loooove the visual style in general. It mostly just being static shades of white and light grey, with these very washed out colors exploding and flowing onto the image...it’s absolutely gorgeous! Like I just really dig this color scheme. And it’s highlighted even further by the gorgeous, fluid animation...these explosions look so good! I’m also just a big sucker for familiar characters/entities being represented in a sort of timeless way...be it a portrait, a statue, a monument, whatever (think smth like this), so seeing Eren and the other titans at the end there was just an absolute treat. Whatever that thing is, I want some kind of print/purchasable piece of merch of it because that heap of titans looks amazing. 

The song also just bangs tbh. It’s such a weird agglomeration of instruments and vocals but I find it comes together really well. The childrens choir, the piano at the beginning, the distorted vocals and most importantly that E-violin!!! so fucking good! Honestly I just love the way this song sounds and Im more hyped for the full version than the ost release atm (even tho I love what we heard so far from that too). The combination of the visuals with the music too is great here...I’ve never seen a flamethrower used in combination with the beat of a song before (outside of mad max fury road I guess lol?) but goddamn its just such a cool fucking combination I cant get over it. 

I have some thoughts on the imagery and the symbolism and my interpretations of it all, and I wanna get into those too, but really, the main thing I absolutely love about this OP is how different it is. Just as the marley arc is probably the most different of all in the manga, just as the new studio has made a show that, in many ways, looks feels and sounds vastly different from the old Attack on Titan, the OP encapsulates all of that by just being this new thing and succeeding at it

I love WIT’s OP’s, I love Linked Horizon’s work on the show. But honestly, the “Linked Horizon hype OP” genre pretty much peaked with Guren no Yumiya for me. I still like all the others, but overall, OP 1, 2, 3 and 5 just feel a bit too same-y for me, especially given that I honestly don’t think any of the follow ups surpass the original. Heck all these other songs even reference GnY in some capacity--I cant help but feel like they could never let go of Guren’s success and never tried something else. Except for Red Swan of course, which is also my 2nd favorite WIT OP. It’s slower, it’s sadder, it’s melancholic, and vastly different from all the others, and I really appreciate that. It tries to be its own thing and it succeeded for me. And “My War” even more so feels like it has a very distinct, unique vision, goes all out in that way, and it just works beautifully.   

And it’s that distinct, unique vision that I wanna dig into lastly here, because, just as the marley arc does for this manga, I find that out of all the OP’s, My War most explicitely depicts and visualizes many of the core thematic ideas of Attack on Titan and brings them directly into the forefront. I’ve seen a bunch of cool interpretations of the song at this point, and someone may have somewhere already said all this, but I wanna throw it in here regardless

After countless battles, sacrifices, victories and losses, Eren and the survey corps were able to win the war against the titans that their walled world was stuck in for a hundred years. Their gigantic enemies were defeated, and freedom ought to lie ahead. But no, beyond the shores is just more...more oppression, more war, more death and more sacrifice. The history their king to from them is one of war and oppression, a never ending cycle of violence, spanning back 2000 years, continuing forward. One oppressive regime falls, only for the next to take its place. This has been the history of mankind since the dawn of man, and it continues on and on and on. 

This is what this episode shows us, another military battle around another walled encampment, and this is what this opening shows us...a world perpetually at war. Man’s hatred for one another leads to conflict, to war: it’s continued existence in history and continued technological advancements are the perfect visual representation of this. Man’s capacity for war breeds more war, and it takes lives and it takes freedom and it doesnt stop, it just keeps consuming. 

The Opening starts off with battleships, artillery fire, mortars, flamethrowers, nuclear explosions and a titan spine forming among them all, until the birds of freedom fall dead out of the sky. Neverending armies of soldiers march the streets, airships rule the sky, but all the soldiers, all the military craft, the marleyan military and the paradisian soldiers all fall to pieces and get destroyed. War and conflict rage on and all the pieces fall to the ground, littering the earth in nothing but death and destruction. And at the end, atop this mountain of corpses and mayhem, the titans arise, reaching forward, attacking. They are born from mankinds neverending cycle of destruction, the physical manifestation of our inner demons that lead us to kill each other. 

I thoroughly believe that this sequence of events most perfectly encapsulates all of attack on titan. Look at the marley arc: the years of their attempts to wipe out Paradis island lead the island and the attack titan straight to them, delivering a terrible blow to them during their declaration of war. 2000 years ago it was the warmongering, slave hording king fritz who had a girl hunted for sport who brought about the era of the eldian empire, creating a system to eternally maintain the titan’s ability to wage war and rule the lands that would wind up ripping humanity apart. Look at the final arc: all of humanities hatred towards the island devils birthed the final attack titan and his horde of demons who have come to trample the world underfoot. The titans have always arisen as the consequence of man’s tendency towards conflict and death. Eren’s titan first formed from inside a titan who just killed him, his last titan was born out of his own death yet again. Titans are man’s desire to kill given shape, and the more man kills and fights, the more titans arise. 

It’s a bleak and terrible look at the cruelty of the world, that I think the OP highlights immensly well. It’s a gorgeous looking and sounding 90 seconds, and despite its contents being essentially horrifying, its fun to look at and listen to. Isayama once said about Eren’s attack in marley that “what eren does here is the worst thing. but if you were able to feel just a little bit of excitement from it, then it was worth drawing manga all this time”. Somehow, one way or another, we’re drawn to conflict, despite how terrible it is. And I think this opening manifests this beautifully 

[bam-monsterhospital]

90s xmen scott isn’t terrible.

fffffffff, i can’t find it. I swear i didn’t dream making a post about how annoying logan is in the 90s cartoon when kait and i first started binging it the other month, but i can’t fuckin find this post. anyways, i guess I’LL JUST PRETEND IT DOESNT’ EXIST and make the post again:

It must be fuckin popular to shit on scott and all the cool kids are doing it, but like, 90s xmen scott isn’t insufferable. He’s not the terrible asshole people loooooooove to pretend he is. He’s just a pretty bland guy with a fuckin rescue-heroes firefighter voice, being the ‘stereotypical superhero team leader trope™’.  Sure, he’s def not my fav scott, but he’s exactly what you expect from an 80s/90s superhero marvel cartoon.  It doesn’t help that the show quickly turns into the wolverine power hour with the writers being extremely transparent on how much they hate scott by making most scenes with him and jean awkward as fuck to watch, and then overwriting her love for him by inserting logan fanfiction-style up in to displace scott. (he had a few interesting moments like during the xmas ep where everyone around the tree was like ‘fuckinnnn, at least TRY to sing, scott, gawd’ and he’s like ‘mmm noope, i didn’t wanna do it anyways’, and then that ep where he’s stuck in a town without powers and he is PISSED TO THE MAX and having absolutely no one’s shit)

ahem, but ye. You know who IS insufferable? Wolverine.  Having come in expecting scott to be terrible and expecting nothing from wolverine thanks to all the LIES propagated by people over the years, boy HOWDY WAS I NOT PREPARED.  If you were a fan/watcher of the 90s xmen cartoon and you think logan was cool beans in it, duuuuuuude you need to go back and watch it again because WOOF. He is terrible. I hope my previous posts have made it clear how hilariously terrible he is, but like let’s list shit out:

he’s a leeroy jenkins which... well duh you expect that of logan that’s fine: but what’s not is his charging in when everyone else is like ‘fuck no we’re retreating, dumbass’ explicitly got morph KILLED. and then he PINS IT ALL ON SCOTT.

macho manlyman toxic posturing

knows no boundaries in his crush on jean. respects nothing about her and her choices.

working off that last point: makes everything about himself, STEALS a photo of scott and jean together and strokes it lovingly while yearning like he’s some lord byron protag.

spontaneously doesn’t show up to jean and scott’s weddding, doesn’t even fuckin tell anyone (everyone’s invited and EVERYONE else is there), making jean & everyone else worry and otherwise adding stress to this event rather than going and supporting the woman he supposedly loves.

leaves a note and also makes that previous point all about himself.

is antagonistic to everyone just for the sake of playing devil’s advocate and getting in screen time/the last word.

the show quickly becomes all about him and showing how ‘cool’ he is, this boring one-note angry animal-man who can’t interact with other characters without throwing a goddamn tantrum.

faces NO CONSEQUENCES for any of these or other actions.

and i’m not even finished watching the show ;__; just... how terrible wolverine is in this cartoon was hilarious at first because of how ridiculous it was. But it quickly devolved into just being frustrating and annoying when it got less ridiculous and more persistent with its misogyny and toxic masculinity.

[evelynmfoye]

Volkswagen Shopping Doesnt Have To Be Miserable

Have you ever gone shopping for a new Volkswagen in Lynchburg VA and felt confused and overwhelmed when you got to the dealership? You probably just needed to be educated in how the whole buying process works. This article helps make Volkswagen purchases a snap.

You do yourself a great disservice if you fail to negotiate a price lower than sticker. Never pay the amount the car is listed for. Negotiating down from the sticker price will help you save thousands.

Get your financing set up before you visit a dealership. Credit unions and banks are good options. You may even get a lower interest rate and you will know what you can afford.

Establish a car buying budget before you go to the dealership. When car shopping, never go over your maximum budget regardless of what words come out of the dealers mouth. Do not let the salesperson talk you into purchasing an expensive car if you are going to spend the next years struggling to make your payments.

Keep the overall price in mind, rather than the monthly payments. A dealer can make any desired monthly price possible, but you’ll end up paying that monthly price for years and years, making the final cost of the Volkswagen outrageous. Get the best overall price and then deal with financing. Then you can adjust the monthly payments.

When you are looking for a car to purchase, make sure that any vehicle you consider is equipped with the latest safety features. You must make sure you have ABS or antilock brakes. Air bags are also important. Safety is important since you will be in this vehicle a lot.

Always test drive a Volkswagen in Lynchburg VA before you buy it. It’s important that you find out if the Volkswagen drives properly, even if you’ve driven this exact model before. It’s possible the car has problems that can only be uncovered by driving it.

If you’re looking for a brand new car, talk to your bank about your loan options prior to going shopping. Doing this ensures your security. In some cases, your dealership will help you secure a low interest rate but it is good to know about the interest rates that would be available through your bank.

Avoid shopping for a Volkswagen by yourself if you feel like a pushover. Take someone you trust, and have them negotiate for you. Tell them exactly what you’re looking to buy and how much you have to spend before you go.

No matter what car you chose, test drive it first. Don’t be so pressed for time that you skip this part. There is nothing that can replace the feeling of driving the car. You may notice trouble with the brakes, misfiring, sticking or slipping gears, or a number of other factors that the dealer didn’t tell you about.

Test drive your proposed vehicle without fail. Even if you have your ideal vehicle picked out and available at the dealer, take a few minutes to actually test it out. Nothing can substitute your actual experience with the car. Maybe you’ll find out that the ride isn’t that great, or the handling isn’t up to par.

Keep your trade-in to yourself. Only reveal this after the negotiation process is complete. The dealership might adjust the cost of the new car based on the fact that you have a car to trade in if they know about it beforehand.

Most salesmen will have monthly goals or quotas to make. Use this against them by shopping at month end. The sales staff will want to sell you a Volkswagen to meet their goals. This gives you a bit more leverage in your bargaining.

Try the Internet when looking for a used car. The car dealership is no longer necessary. You should check sites such as eBay or Craigslist. You can save a lot of money and avoid the pressure sales that you encounter at a car dealership.

Don’t give out a social security number too quickly; be cautious. Some dealers will ask for this info upfront so they can run your credit. If, in the end, you decide to purchase elsewhere, you may not get the best deal if too many dealerships have run a credit check on you. Do not allow anyone to pull your credit until you have hammered out your deal.

If you know the specific model that you want, call the dealership to see if they have it on the lot. If you just drive there, the salesman’s job is to just get you to buy a car. When your heart is set on something in particular — a hatchback, for example — you will be wasting your time by showing up at a dealership that cannot meet your needs. Take the few minutes it takes to make a quick call first.

Do not expect to get the vehicle of your dreams, especially if you are shopping on a budget. Perhaps, you can’t get the exact features or color that you are looking for. Missing out on heated seats won’t destroy your driving experience after all.

If you feel pressured or intimidated, leave the premises. They may ask you to stay, but don’t. Come up with a fib if necessary. Get out of there quickly! You have many other options, and you don’t have to put up with such tactics.

When shopping for a car, you should take along a friend that has no interest in you purchasing a Volkswagen. This friend can stop you from making mistakes like allowing your emotions to get involved. You need to take a friend with you when shopping so they can help.

Do some research online to see what prices are in your surrounding area. Search other states and places near you, you might find a deal that is out of this world. Researching prices online can help you figure out where to get the lowest price.

Do not reveal that you have a trade-in right off the bat. Only reveal this after the negotiation process is complete. If you tell them right way, they will be working deals in their head.

Month-end is an exceptional time for car shopping. Salespeople are anxious to meet their monthly quotas, and your sale may be just what they need. Negotiate with them for several days prior to the close of each month, and it is likely that you can obtain a better deal.

Sales associates and dealerships can differ. It is true that a lot of salespeople are pushy, but some dealers understand that customers do not like these methods. More and more dealerships are figuring out that gentle sales and happy customers mean repeat business. Just turn around and walk away if you are feeling pressured. Your business is up for grabs to any salesman in town, and they would all be delighted to work with you.

If there are advertising fees associated with the car’s main price, inform the dealer that you’d like it removed. There is no good reason for the customer to be responsible for that fee. If the dealer refuses to remove it, walk away. I guarantee they won’t let you step off the lot.

Avoid purchasing any used vehicle that is as-is. You will probably regret that decision if you make it. You need to aim for at least a two or three month warranty with your purchase. It is important to get this in the event of an accident in the months following your purchase.

Before you shop, find out if any rebates are available. Many car dealerships will offer you the rebate at site as a way to offer incentive towards a quick sale. Less ethical dealerships won’t even mention a rebate and then they will take the cash back themselves without you ever knowing.

When deciding what Volkswagen in Lynchburg VA to buy, be mindful of the fuel economy. Do not hesitate to spend more on a Volkswagen with good mileage if this means saving thousands over the years. Think about this when you select your Volkswagen.

Research your car’s trade-in price and negotiate based on its value. This gives you a better idea of what sort of offer you should be getting.

Ensure you are aware of rebates in advance. Rebates are popular at dealership sites, as they make sales more likely. If the dealership is not very ethical, they won’t let you know about any available rebates and will instead keep the money for themselves.

Choose a model that is famous for being cheap and needing rare repairs. You don’t need to give out a bunch of money every month or two just to keep the vehicle going! Look around online to figure out the model of the vehicle that will work with you.

Once you get an offer from any dealership that you find preferable, you have the moment to start mentioning your possible trade-in. You might not get a great deal on your trade in, but do not be stern and do make compromises. Now, you must make the sale.

When buying a car, don’t make snap decisions. You may be pushed by the salesperson to by now, when you may not need to. Do not fall for this. There’s a 90% chance that the “special promotion” will remain when you’re ready to buy.

Having your facts down before heading to a dealer is smart. Look at automobile comparison sites online and check consumer’s magazines to find out which vehicles suit your needs best. This is a great way to get info about features, options and prices. You’ll save time and money if you know all you can before going shopping.

Keep your options open in regards to your car purchase. Look at major dealers–these all usually have the types of vehicles you may be interested in. For instance, if you want a SUV, Ford and Toyota both sell them. If you take the time to comparison shop, you will find a great deal on the perfect car.

Never allow a greedy salesperson to take you for a ride, financially speaking. They may seem friendly, but it’s a ploy for you to trust them. Do not allow their friendly demeanor and nice smile cause you to make a purchase that is not in your best interest.

Beware low monthly payments that hide a higher total price. When attempting to find a monthly payment that suits your budget, it is not difficult to become distracted. An unethical salesperson may try to get you a lower payment amount while raising the actual purchase price. To avoid this situation, read all the fine print of your contract before signing.

The less repairs a Volkswagen is known for, the better. The last thing you want is to invest in is a money pit. Look online to see what model is best for you.

Prior to making a deal on a used car, make sure a mechanic inspects it first. This will reveal any mechanical or electrical problems that will affect your car. When you do find a problem, have the price reduced or skip the purchase altogether.

Remember the advice from this article when Volkswagen in Lynchburg VA shopping. Utilize this article as a guide in order to assist you in your Volkswagen shopping. Keep this article near.

Make sure your finances are in line before buying a car. Create a list of the things you can afford, and then begin research to find out how much a car will cost you. Do not overspend and put yourself in debt.

Now that you know a bit more about Volkswagen for sale in Lynchburg VA, you will be able to put your Volkswagen for sale in Lynchburg VA-related plans into action. Go back to the tips you just read if you want to make sure you are going in the right direction. Soon, you will be able to gain the success you seek.

from https://terryvolkswagenshowroom.com/volkswagen-shopping-doesnt-have-to-be-miserable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=volkswagen-shopping-doesnt-have-to-be-miserable

from Terry Volkswagen Showroom - Blog https://terryvolkswagenshowroom.weebly.com/blog/volkswagen-shopping-doesnt-have-to-be-miserable

[nh0betsm-blog]

Can I get a company car as a Farmers Insurance Co. Agent?

Can I get a company car as a Farmers Insurance Co. Agent?

So im becoming a Farmers Insurance Agent. I d like to know if I can get a company car to commute to and from work and if possible for private use? I currently do not have a car but I am a licensed driver. My office will be 30 miles away, one way only so 60 miles each day. I currently have no money to purchase a new car and I ve no work experience either. I m not sure if Farmers offers company cars but I d believe they do. Any advice? Thanks in advance.

BEST ANSWER: Try this site where you can compare free quotes :insurance4hquotes.xyz

SOURCES:

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Flint Lives Matter: residents say Hillary Clinton coming for the entertainment

New Post has been published on https://entertainmentguideto.com/must-see/flint-lives-matter-residents-say-hillary-clinton-coming-for-the-entertainment/

Flint Lives Matter: residents say Hillary Clinton coming for the entertainment

While some praise the candidates visit for bringing attention to the city as its water crisis continues, others see a candidate plying a cause just to get votes

Hillary Clinton has made every effort to make Flint her own. The water crisis afflicting this predominantly black Michigan city ignored by Washington politicians for years has become another battlefield in a progressive war between Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Race, class and the environment matter again in an issues-based, neck-and-neck race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Looking past Tuesdays primary in New Hampshire, where Sanders is tipped to win, and toward the March primary states where she will be counting on African American support, Clinton made a symbolic campaign stop here on Sunday.

I feel blessed to be here but I wish it were for a different reason, she said, as she took to the stage at the House of Prayer Missionary Baptist Church, flanked by purple-robed members of a choir and surrounded by a sea of nodding heads.

But I am here because for nearly two years mothers and fathers were voicing concerns about the waters color and its smell, about the rashes that it gave to those that were bathing in it. And for nearly two years Flint was told the water was safe.

Her words drew applause and shouts of amen. But though Clinton supporters turned up for Sundays service, simply identifying the problem was not enough for some.

Hillary Clinton poses for a photograph at the House of Prayer Missionary Baptist Church. Photograph: Paul Sancya/AP

Not everyone in a city where the words FLINT LIVES MATTER appear next to bullet holes in windows wants the lead in their childrens drinking water made into a photo-op, a kind of Hurricane Katrina for a more liberal nations eco-justice age.

Interviews with residents before, during and after Clintons visit revealed fear of a candidate helicoptering in on the campaign trail, attempts to salvage a modern economic and environmental crisis that is Flints own, and few answers for a city being abandoned by its residents.

Dont jump on a cause just to get votes, said Flint Lives Matter organiser Calandra Patrick, as Clintons jet arrived in town. It doesnt matter to me if she makes an appearance or not it doesnt matter to me one bit.

Arnette Rison III, a 47-year-old independent contractor, put Clintons visit in starker terms: If shes bringing 35,000 hydroelectric filters, Ill love her for it. But thats not what shes about to do.

At the church, though the topic was serious, the mood was jovial and warm. Clinton stood before a packed audience and spoke emphatically about the moral imperatives of the situation, saying: The children in Flint are just as precious as the children in any other part of America.

The introduction she received was light, the pastor joking that the baptismal water was from the Flint river but he had experienced no rashes, only a little ash. The audience response ranged from lovingly enthusiastic to fierce.

A little after the changeover I noticed the smell

Calandra Patrick (closest to water), with Maurice Ratcliff and Tameka Thompson. Photograph: Lucia Graves for the Guardian

It was the spring of 2014 and something wasnt right with the water. Officials had switched from Detroits water system to the Flint river to save money, and though Patricks tap water was still running clear, she knew something was amiss.

A little after the changeover I noticed the smell, Patrick said. Every time she turned on the shower, there it was again. So she did what anyone worried about being alone in her feelings would do: she posted about it on Facebook.

Its funny: when you just put stuff out there and start asking questions, other people are like, Yeah, I noticed it too!

Almost two years later, the 41-year-old Flint native turned to Facebook once again to help set up the Flint Lives Matter Tailgate, a bottled water giveaway at city hall on Saturdays for the needy, aimed at supplementing the work of fire stations and local churches.

We dont have a limit, said Kevin Palmer, another organizer. We ask people what they need and we give it to them.

But there remains an element of political protest of rebellion to the new cause clbre of progressive Democrats.

A man piling water into his car erupted into chants decrying Rick Snyder, the Republican Michigan governor on whom Sanders has called to resign: Hey hey! Ho ho! Governor Snyder has got to go! A woman sold Flint Lives Matter T-shirts. The events online invitation page drew a straight parallel to Hurricane Katrina: Both abandoned by the government and left to die from dirty water.

An unconscionable and infuriating situation

A typical water resource station. Photograph: Lucia Graves for the Guardian

Clinton may have come late to Flint, but she came strong.

After lead levels were determined to far exceed environmental regulations, people beyond Michigans borders knew the water could cause permanent brain damage in children.

On 11 January, Clinton called the Flint water crisis unconscionable; a few days later, she appeared on Rachel Maddows MSNBC show to call the situation infuriating. She was the first candidate to bring the subject up in presidential debates and she even suggested one of the four additional Democratic debates should be held in Flint, in order to shine a spotlight on whats happening there and in places like Flint around the country.

That will now happen, in March.

On Sunday, Clinton seemed at pains to emphasize her lasting commitment to the issue, saying: I will fight for you no matter how long it takes, and, This has to be a national priority, not just for today and for tomorrow.

It was perhaps a pre-buttal to the attacks she expects to receive for supposedly appearing to care so much about Flint when the optics for doing so are so good.

This is no time for politics as usual, she said. Flint should start making the repairs you need to restore safe water as soon as possible.

For 32-year-old Lorenzo Lee Avery Jr, though, it was a disingenuous visit: Honestly, she not coming to help, he said. Feels like she coming for the entertainment.

His mother, Patricia Torrey, was standing over his shoulder. She strongly disagreed: Its a beautiful thing! said Torrey, 54, adding that she was a Clinton supporter, all the more so heading into Michigans 8 March primary. Its nice to see shes committed enough to come here.

Casey Lester, 31, who lives in Flint but runs the restaurant Max & Ermas in Detroit, was unimpressed by Clintons commitment. His wife, Marcella Lester, a 28-year-old applications analyst at Henry Ford Health Systems, took the campaign bait.

Though like her husband, she typically votes Republican, and may well do so in this election, Marcella Lester said she was pleased by Clintons hastily scheduled trip.

I think its good to get the attention, she said, because we need as much as we can get.

Nothing lasts, not even marriage

Carolyn Harper: This aint going to last, she says of bottles at a water treatment site. Photograph: Lucia Graves for the Guardian

Most people you talk to around Flint just want to know how politicians like Clinton and Sanders intend to help them. Because they do need help.

Kevin Palmer, a Flint Lives Matter organizer and father of five, pulled up a sleeve to reveal a surprisingly pale and scaly inner elbow. He avoids the water as much as he can, but the rashes persist. Worse than the physical harm, he said, was the financial. Having bought his house for $190,000 in 2012, Palmer said it was now worth nothing.

His brother Eddie Palmer, who runs a car audio and stereo repair shop, has fallen on tough financial times, too, to say nothing of the rashes and boils. Audio Unlimited had lost 40% to 50% of its clientele in the two years since the water was switched, he said, and he doesnt have it nearly as bad as the restaurants, at which he wont even eat.

Every month, he said, people tell him theyre leaving moving to Ohio or Arizona or even California. While he had no intention of shipping out himself, Palmer said he couldnt blame them.

Carolyn Harper, 77, is planning to move to South Carolina to be closer to her son. In the meantime, she is stuck in Flint, depending on bottled water that is too heavy for her to carry home.

That aint going to last, she said, gesturing at bottles at a water treatment site near her house. Nothing lasts, not even marriage.

She has outlasted three husbands now, and just about all of her friends have skipped town. Her house, on West Pulaski, has a bullet hole below the front window, a reminder of when there was a dope house across the street. But now the biggest problem is the water that flows from her taps.

She poured a glass, to hold up to the light. It was a pale shade of yellow, and slightly frothy. Asked if she thought it smelled faintly of minerals, she laughed Harper cant smell a thing.

Calandra Patrick, the Flint Lives Matter organizer, sees the combination of crises in starker terms.

Its genocide and gentrification. The inner city of flint is predominantly black. I dont know where they get these 57% figures, but the inner city of Flint is 90% to 95% black. It is.

Rison, who has two daughters and a grandchild, just wants to leave. But he finds moving financially impossible. He hasnt even had his house appraised, because he knows it wont be worth anything.

Nobody wants to come to Flint, he said.

Except, apparently, Clinton.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/us

[kennethherrerablog]

Attention, Teachers: Need Cash This Summer? Try One of These 26 Side Gigs

While many of us dream of having the summer months off, some teachers prefer to use their vacations to earn extra cash.

According to a Penny Hoarder analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, the median salary for teachers (elementary, middle and secondary) is $51,000, and the starting salary comes in at $35,800. So it’s no surprise that one in 10 educators works a second job during the summer. Not only that, teachers are twice as likely to work a second job than people in any other occupation.

Working during the summer can help you keep your teaching skills sharp and can even help you learn a few new things — preferably with someone else footing the bill.

You’ll find no shortage of summer jobs for teachers or educators. Many of these opportunities will give you a modest income without a lengthy commitment. When the summer’s over, you can resume your day job without having to worry about quitting or keeping a second job.

Ready to find your new summer job?

Jobs That Will Keep You Teaching

For some teachers, summer is a time to get away from their regular day-to-day work. But for others, teaching is what gets them going in the morning. These jobs will bring in extra income while fulfilling that desire to keep teaching.

1. Teach English as a Second Language

Want to strengthen your teaching skills while earning extra money? Look for opportunities to tutor English as a second language (ESL) students locally and online.

You can contact large corporations in your area that may relocate foreign employees to your city and inquire whether they need a freelance ESL tutor to help their staff brush up on their language skills. Or go online and connect with students all over the world through sites like GoFluent and QKids. One former public school teacher earned over $500 a week teaching English to Chinese students through VIPKID.

2. Offer Tutoring

School may be out for the summer for you, but that doesn’t mean students don’t still need a helping hand. If you just don’t get enough of teaching during the school year, tutor in your subject to make extra cash.  

If you want to offer in-person tutoring, start by spreading the word with your students’ parents during the school year so they know who to call when summertime rolls around. And of course, shamelessly publicize your tutoring skills to friends and family who have children. A great thing about tutoring is you can set your own rates, with tutors typically charging anywhere between $30 and $90 per hour, depending on the subject, according to Tutors.com.

And if you’d like to tutor without actually having to leave your house, consider online tutoring instead. There are a ton of websites that hire online tutors. Here are some of our favorite online tutoring companies.

3. Become a Test Prep Instructor

This is similar to tutoring, but with a little twist. As a test prep instructor, you can still flex those teaching skills but take a little break from teaching the same stuff you do during the regular school year.

Depending on your area of expertise and skill level, you can earn income over the summer helping students prepare for the ACT, SAT, LSAT, MCAT or GRE.

Again, you can simply spread the word through friends and family to tutor locally, which means you can set your own rates. Or you can turn to a national organization that is regularly hiring, such as Kaplan Test Prep, where tutors earn anywhere from $17 to $28 per hour, according to Glassdoor salaries.

4. Teach Abroad

Why limit your summer job search to the U.S.? You’ll find many great opportunities for teachers to work abroad during the summer months.

While paid short-term positions can be hard to come by, volunteer programs, especially those teaching English, are plentiful in certain regions of the world — plus, you’ll get to travel. Some programs will even pay for your expenses. Go Overseas lists a ton of volunteer teaching opportunities abroad.

5. Coach Youth Sports

Coaching youth sports during the summer is another opportunity that allows you to continue working with and instructing children — just in a different way from your regular job. Sure, it’s not teaching long division, but spending the summer imparting athletic and teamwork skills to children can be just as challenging and rewarding.

Plus, you get to watch kids run around playing sports, which is always adorable. A 6-year-old in an oversized, bobbling baseball helmet? Forget about it.

Check with your community recreation centers, churches and camps to find open jobs.

6. Work as a Nanny or Baby Sitter

Technically, this isn’t a teaching gig, but as a nanny or baby sitter you’ll still be working with children and informally teaching them along the way.

You can either find a regular full-time nanny job working for parents who prefer that to traditional day care or just pick up baby-sitting gigs here and there when you feel like making some extra cash.

Start by spreading the word through friends and family, and be sure to mention your teaching position so you have an edge over teenagers willing to do the job cheaply. You can also check out sites like Sittercity to find jobs in your community.

Online Summer Jobs for Teachers

Looking for a summer gig that earns you some extra cash — but doesn’t require leaving the house? We’ve got you covered.

7. Sell Your Lesson Plans Online

I love opportunities to leverage what you already have for passive income. You’ve already done the work. Why not make the most of it?

Take those lesson plans and worksheets you created during the school year and upload them to a site like Teachers Pay Teachers. You will earn 60% to 85% on each sale of your education resources. And this is an opportunity that can continue to bring in additional income year-round without any extra work.

“I only sell digital products, so I don’t have to mail anything,” Meredith O’Neill, a middle school teacher who sells her resources on the site, told us in May 2017. “The sale and the transfer of my work happens automatically. The payment goes straight to my PayPal account after TPT takes its cut. It’s extremely easy once your store is created and your work is loaded.”

8. Write and Edit Resumes

If you’ve got writing skills, you can earn extra cash writing and editing resumes. For some (read: a lot) of us, crafting a resume is like pulling teeth, and people are willing to fork out funds for a final product they feel will help them land a job.

This is a good summer job to pursue if you’re interested in part-time work that you can pick up on your own time.

Your personal network is a good place to start, and your teaching background will give you an edge. You can also list your services on freelance platforms such as Upwork, Thumbtack and Fiverr.

Fiverr user Charmaine Pocek started writing resumes and cover letters for $5 a piece. Within six years, she was charging $30 to $800 for her services and has since earned over $2 million through the site, according to Fiverr.   

If you’re interested but need a little refresher on resume writing, check out this step-by-step guide.

9. Work as a Website Tester

You probably already spend a good amount of time browsing the internet and using phone apps, so why not get paid for it? Companies want to know how users interact with their websites and what can be done to make them more user-friendly.

All you have to do is browse and navigate websites and then provide honest feedback. You won’t get rich testing websites — expect to earn between $5 and $10 for each test.

UserTesting pays $10 for every 20 minute test; UserFeel pays $10 for every 10-20 minute test; and User Test pays around $10 per review.

10. Look Into Work-From-Home Jobs

You spend the school year commuting, so consider spending the summer earning extra income from the comfort of your own home. You’d be amazed how many companies are regularly hiring work-from-home employees, and with such a broad selection you can find an opportunity that fits your skill set.

Customer service, copy editing, travel consulting, coding, part-time, full-time, seasonal, freelance: Honestly, the internet is your oyster. You can start with with our Work-From-Home jobs portal to find a gig.

And if you’ve never forayed into the remote work life before, take some time to go over our work-from-home guide. It covers topics such as insurance, scams, taxes and how to find a job that fits your lifestyle.

Summer Jobs in the Great Outdoors

It’s summertime and you probably spend the rest of year cooped up in a classroom. Why not spend your months off in the great outdoors and earning extra cash at the same time?

11. Camp Counselor

If you love fresh air and sunshine, consider getting a job at a summer camp.

Writer Amanda Simkin spent three summers working at a summer camp during her eight years of teaching. “Working at a summer camp is a great supplemental job because sometimes you just want to get away from the classroom and interact with kids in a more fun-focused and laid-back way,” she explains.

Here’s how she recommends you find a job. “I learned about openings through word of mouth, but nowadays you can use social media, such as park district websites, Facebook, even Craigslist to find openings,” she says. You can also check with your local YMCA, community organizations and churches.

12. Local Tour Guide

Know all of the hot spots and hidden gems in your city or neighborhood? Then consider becoming a local tour guide. It’s a great way to enjoy the weather, the scenery and good company (hopefully) while earning extra cash.

Another neighborhood-based gig that’s similar to becoming a tour guide is Yelp’s community ambassador program. The company hires people in each city to host events, partner with local organizations and act as an online moderator. It’s a flexible gig, usually 15 to 20 hours per week.

13. Whitewater Raft Guide

This is the perfect job if you want to work in the great outdoors but you’re also looking for an adventure. But be warned: The job is intense and physically-demanding. It also requires long hours and certain qualifications, depending on your state.

Hiring for river guides really amps up around June and July, and recreational hiring in general grows an average of 68% in the U.S. around this time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The river-rafting season typically runs from June to September, making this a perfectly complementary job for teachers looking to earn a summer income. In fact, Idaho river guide Hardy Bender says a lot of guides seek out teaching jobs purely so they can have the summers off to hit the river.

14. Lifeguard

Like river guiding, this summer job for teachers gives you the perks of getting paid to enjoy the water and sunshine but in a more controlled environment.

Summer is the busy season, so check with city-operated pools, recreation centers, water parks and country clubs for seasonal lifeguarding jobs. Or if you’re blessed enough to live on the water, you can spend the summer working on the beach.

The pay for lifeguards varies depending on your location, skill level and employer, but you can earn anywhere from $9 to $25 per hour, according to Glassdoor salaries. Just remember, there are certain certifications and training to complete before you can get that telltale red suit and whistle.

15. Dog Walker

Honestly, who doesn’t want to get paid to hang out with dogs in their spare time? Well, maybe cat people… but they don’t count.

Start by offering your services to friends and family who don’t have the summers off. They may jump at the chance for someone to take their beloved pups out for a walk on long work days.

You can also sign up for Rover.

The online network connects dog walkers and sitters to local dog owners through its 4.9-star-rated app, so you don’t have to staple flyers on every utility pole across town.

Rover says sitters can earn as much as $1,000 a month.

Rover dog-sitter requirements vary by location. In general, you must:

Be 18 years or older.

Pass a background check.

Have access to the Rover app (iOS or Android).

Here’s how it works: You’ll create an online sitter profile where you’ll answer questions about your experience with puppers and your schedule availability.

You can choose to offer a variety of services, including dog walking, overnight boarding at your home or theirs, and daycare. Boarding is the app’s most popular service, so offering it can get you more gigs. You set your own rates. (Rover keeps a small percentage as a service fee.)

Dog owners will reach out to you. Accept which gigs you want, then start snugglin’ pups. As soon as you complete a service, you’ll be paid within two days.

And if you don’t want to just stick to dog walking, you can expand your services and become a full-blown pet sitter — check this out for more information.

Jobs That Offer a Change of Pace

Maybe you want a summer job that breaks away from the standard tutoring gig. Here are some options all across the board, we’re sure at least one will catch your eye.

16. Drive for Uber or Lyft

If you want to make some extra cash without committing to a full-blown job, driving for Uber or Lyft is a legitimate option. Demand for ride-sharing has been growing like crazy, and it shows no signs of slowing down. To be eligible, you’ll need to be at least 21 years old with a year of driving experience, pass a background check and own a car made in 2007 or later.

We talked to Paul Pruce, who had been driving full-time with Lyft for over a year and earning $750 a week as a driver.

Best of all, he could do it on his own time. You can work days, nights or weekends — it’s up to you.

Because it’s easy to switch between apps, Lyft drivers often also sign up to drive with Uber.

17. Rent Out Your Driveway

No one wants to worry about feeding a meter while on vacation. If you live near an event center or stadium, rent out your driveway using sites and apps like JustPark or MonkeyParking — or go old school and simply post a “Parking” sign in front of your house. You may only earn $20 per day, but $20 is $20.

18. List Extra Space in Your House

Have a spare room? Might as well try to earn some money by listing it on Airbnb.

If you’re a good host with a desirable space, you could add hundreds — even thousands — of dollars to your savings account with Airbnb.

A few simple steps can make the difference between a great experience and a less-than-satisfactory one. We talked to Terence Michael, an Airbnb superhost based in Los Angeles.

Here are some of his tips:

Break out the labelmaker. “I have the entire house loaded with labels,” Michael says. “They look nice; they’re modern. This helps people feel less helpless.”

Be a good host, and stock your place with the toiletries you’d expect at a hotel — toilet paper, soap and towels. Here’s a little hack from Michael: “I order on Amazon and have it delivered when people are there.”

Be kind to your neighbors. “I say, ‘I’m not going to put anyone here who I think won’t be good for you,’” Michael explains. “And I turn a lot of big groups away, especially in Nashville. I don’t want anyone going to the cops or the city.”

(Hosting laws vary from city to city. Please understand the rules and regulations applicable to your city and listing.)

19. Rent Out Your Car

If you put Uber and Airbnb together and mix them up, the result is renting out your car for extra money. You’re earning extra income from your car, but in the passive way you rent out an extra room — you just have to be cool with strangers driving your car around.

One service to start with is Get Around. When signing up, you’ll list your car and its availability —plus, all cars on Getaround include primary insurance during rentals. Another to check out is TravelCar, a service that allows you to rent out your car while you’re on vacation.

20. Host Trivia

Consider yourself a “Jeopardy!” nut? Combine your love for trivia, wealth of teaching knowledge and ability to command a room to become a part-time trivia contest host. After all, coming up with a set up trivia questions isn’t too far off from crafting a quiz for your students.

Check with your local restaurants and bars to see whether they’re in need of a trivia host. Sure, you might find yourself working only one night a week, but it’s a fun way to flex your brain muscles and earn extra money.

This math teacher in Florida told us he earns $125 per week hosting trivia (and he also offers tips on how to do your best Alex Trebek impersonation).

21. Rent Out Baby Gear

Renting out baby supplies — what will they think of next? There seems to be a rental service for just about everything these days, and this one is great for anyone who can get behind earning some extra cash off of that unused baby stuff taking up storage space.

Companies like BabyQuip allow traveling families to rent strollers, car seats, cribs and other baby items instead of lugging around their own gear. So if you have baby equipment you’re not using, you can list it for rental.

Manuela Madrid, a stay-at-home mom in Brandon, Florida works less than 12 hours per month renting out her gear through BabyQuip, and earns between $120 and $180 with each fulfillment. BabyQuip users keep 80% of each reservation fee, but 100% of each delivery fee.

You can sign up for BabyQuip here, or check out these other options: Babies Getaway, goBaby and Traveling Baby Company.

22. Officiate Youth Sports Games

Aside from coaching, another way to get involved in youth sports over the summer is by officiating games. Plus, officiating gives you the involvement in local youth sports without having to offer as much commitment that coaching would demand.

One option is working as a youth baseball umpire, a gig that can earn you upwards of $50 per game, which are usually less than two hours long. Aside from directly reaching out to youth sport programs, you can reach out to your local umpire association to inquire about open positions.

Summer Jobs if You Want Some Me Time

Look, if you want to spend your summer months catching up on some much needed alone time, we definitely don’t blame you. But that doesn’t mean you still can’t earn some extra money along the way.

23. Write Book Reviews

Here’s a dream scenario: Spend your summer months getting paid to stay curled up with a good book. Freelance book reviewing won’t give you J.K Rowling-level finances, but it’s a great way to earn extra cash while doing something you love — and were probably going to do all summer anyway.

How much you can earn will vary depending on the publisher and your skill level, but you can typically look to earn anywhere from $5 to $100 per review. Plus, you’ll probably get the book for free. Score!

Here are some reputable websites and publishers that will actually pay you for book reviews.

24. House Sitter

If your summer months are going to be spent picking up odd jobs and side hustles, house sitting will fit into your schedule quite nicely — and it’s a great opportunity for some alone time.

Whether you’re spending the night in the home or just stopping in for a short while each day to bring in the mail, house sitting is a pretty easy way  to put extra pennies in your pocket.

Sure, you can go through friends and family, but the chances of that avenue offering paid gigs is slim. Check out professional sites that can connect you with potential clients in your area, like HouseSitter.com.

25. Transcriptionist

A transcription gig is perfect for teachers who just want to throw on a pair of noise-canceling headphones and block out the world for a bit.

You can typically find transcription jobs in three categories: general, medical and legal. Note that the latter two might require additional training or requirements, but that will depend on the employer.

Most transcription jobs are independent contract work, so you can set your own hours and work when you want. Just note that transcriptionists are usually paid by the audio hour, so the amount you earn in comparison to hours worked will depend on your transcription fee.

26. Deliver Food

We already talked about driving for Uber and Lyft, and this is kind of the same thing… except you don’t actually have to talk to people beyond the “Here’s your food, you’re welcome, bye.”

Working for food delivery services gives you the opportunity to pick up side-gig work when you feel like earning extra cash — while enjoying some me time. Uber Eats offers flexible food-delivery opportunities, as do GrubHub, Instacart and Shipt.

Kaitlyn Blount is a staff writer at The Penny Hoarder. Angie Nelson has been a virtual assistant and serial blogger since 2007, when she took her future into her own hands and found a way to escape the corporate cubicle farm. Visit The Work at Home Wife to learn about more opportunities to earn an income while keeping your personal freedom.

This was originally published on The Penny Hoarder, which helps millions of readers worldwide earn and save money by sharing unique job opportunities, personal stories, freebies and more. The Inc. 5000 ranked The Penny Hoarder as the fastest-growing private media company in the U.S. in 2017.

The Penny Hoarder Promise: We provide accurate, reliable information. Here’s why you can trust us and how we make money.

Attention, Teachers: Need Cash This Summer? Try One of These 26 Side Gigs published first on https://justinbetreviews.tumblr.com/

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The 3 Most Valuable Investing Lessons For 2019

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The 3 Most Valuable Investing Lessons For 2019

(Source: imgflip)

What a year it’s been! In 2017 it was market heaven for most investors.

The S&P 500 (SPY) not just delivered more than double its historical return of 9.2%, but did so with a peak decline (from all-time highs) of just 3%. That’s compared to the average intra-year peak decline of 13.8% since 1980. It was one of the best years ever, with the lowest volatility in over half a century.

Well, volatility came roaring back with a vengeance in 2018, with the stock market experiencing not just one, but two corrections. In fact, here’s how the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), Nasdaq (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) fared by their December 24th lows (so far).

^SPX data by YCharts

The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (small caps) were both firmly in bear markets, while the Dow and S&P came within a stone’s throw of ending the longest bull market in US history (technically, it’s still alive).

What’s more, all four major indexes are now negative for the year, which means stocks are set for their worst performance since 2008.

SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

But my point here isn’t to point out what a crummy year it’s been for stock investors, but rather to point out three valuable lessons we need to learn from this crazy year. Lessons that can help us not just become better investors over time, but most importantly maximize the chances of achieving our long-term financial dreams.

1. Markets Can Be Far More Volatile Than You Expect

If it feels like this has been an especially volatile time for stocks, that’s because it has been. In fact two weeks ago we had the worst week for the market since 2008, and are currently on track for the worst December since 1931 (at the peak of the Great Depression).

But the thing about volatility is that it doesn’t just come and go over time. Since 1958 market volatility has been cyclical, but trending steadily higher.

S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Daily Return Volatility

(Source: Ploutos Research)

As Blackstone’s Byron Wien explains, this is largely a function of both the increased popularity of passive investing as well as computerized trading (which is how passive funds invest their funds).

Recent research suggests that 60%-90% of daily equity trading is now performed by algorithmic trading, up from 25% in 2004. Meanwhile, passive exchange-traded funds have directed trillions of dollars into equity markets since 2009, and the percent of the U.S. equity market share captured by passive strategies has increased from 26% at the start of 2009 to 47% as of 3Q’18. All of these trends are likely to increase volatility moving forward.” – Byron Wien (emphasis added)

In addition to market cap weighted index funds causing periods of blind selling regardless of valuations and fundamentals, you also have robo trading programs that are designed to purely sell, or even short stocks, based on certain technical indicators (which also ignore valuations and fundamentals).

As Benjamin Graham, Buffett’s mentor and the father of modern value investing, famously said:

“In the short run, the market is like a voting machine – tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine – assessing the substance of a company.”

As December has shown us, even high-quality companies, with excellent fundamentals and strong growing cash flow, can become deeply unpopular with the market at times of extreme fear. And thanks to nearly half the market being invested in ETFs, and up to 90% of daily trading being run by computer (including based on headlines and even Trump tweets), the market can become incredibly stupid in the short-term, resulting in stock prices becoming completely disconnected from either their fundamentals or the fundamentals of the economy or overall corporate earnings.

As Albert Einstein said, “Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not yet completely sure about the universe.” Well, this is also true of the market. When investors get scared enough, then the potent combination of blind ETF induced selling and computerized trading can lead to some truly shocking sharp and short-term declines.

Harvard finance professor Xavier Gabaix’s 2005 study Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility looked at the October 19th, 1987 (Black Monday) 22.6% stock market decline (the worst in US history). That kind of decline under standard probability theory should occur once every 4.6 billion years. However, the world is far more complex than standard deviation curves would have you believe (Black Monday was a 20 standard deviation event which is essentially impossible).

That’s why the Harvard study concluded that a Black Monday style crash (largely driven by computer trading) is actually likely to occur, on average, once every 104 years. Now that doesn’t mean that such a crash necessarily will occur with predictable frequency. As Mark Hulbert, the author of the Hulbert Financial Digest explains:

“Note carefully that this doesn’t mean a crash this big will occur every 104 years. This instead will be their average frequency over long periods. So it’s possible that we will not experience another 1987-magnitude crash in our lifetimes – or that another will occur today.” – Mark Hulbert

But while a 20+% one day crash (that plunges us instantly into a bear market) are extremely rare (but far more likely than most investors realize), severe 10% daily drops are to be expected, per Professor Gabaix, about every 13 years.

(Source: Market Watch)

5% market declines are likely to occur 61 times per century, or on average once every 1.6 years. As Hulbert points out, the last 5% one-day market decline was in August 2011, and the last 10% market decline was over 30 years ago. Thus we’re actually overdue for a single-day stock market decline that would instantly put us into a correction (or possibly a bear market).

But it’s not just wild one-day broad market declines that have investors spooked these days. Another lesson from 2018 is that even when the S&P 500 isn’t in a bear market, your portfolio might be.

2. Your Portfolio Isn’t The Stock Market And The Market Isn’t Your Portfolio

While the stock market never officially entered a bear market (defined as S&P 500 closing down 20% or more below its all-time high), on December 20th 60% of the S&P 500 companies were in one (a figure that rose to about 66% by December 24).

What’s more as far as quarters go, as of December 21st, the S&P was having its 14th worst quarter ever. On December 24th, the biggest Christmas Eve drop in history, the quarterly performance of the S&P 500 became the 9th worst ever.

S&P 500 Worst Quarters

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense) – data as of Dec 23rd

But as bad as Q4 has been for the broader market, as we’ve just seen, individual stocks often faired far worse. On December 21st, the Russell 2000 (small caps) was suffering its fourth-worst quarter since its inception in 1979.

Russell 2000 Worst Quarters

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

When the market appears to have bottomed December 24th (yet to be determined), it became the 3rd worst quarter ever for US small caps. The point is that, depending on what you actually own, even standard corrections can be far more painful at the individual level.

Which brings us to the most important lesson of all from this memorable 2018.

3. If Your Portfolio Has A Critical Point Of Failure, It Will Eventually Fail Critically

Let me be very clear that I am NOT trying to scare anyone out of long-term investing. That’s because the current economic and earnings fundamentals are still pointing to positive growth over the next year or two, and today’s valuations are extremely attractive.

(Source: FactSet Research)

For example, right now most analysts expect about 8% EPS growth for the S&P 500 next year. Even energy stocks, despite the fastest oil crash in decades (43% in two months), are expected to generate nearly double-digit earnings growth.

Today the S&P 500’s forward PE ratio is just 14.2, and most sectors are historically undervalued, especially compared to a year ago.

(Source: Fortune Financial Advisors)

What do today’s historically attractive valuations mean in terms of future returns? Well, over the short-term (1-year), it’s hard to know. But historically a forward PE of 14.2 has resulted in about 17% 12-month returns. But over the long-term (five years) total returns become far more predictable and today’s valuations point to roughly 15% returns.

Don’t trust forward PEs? Well, then let’s use trailing earnings. The S&P 500’s TTM PE is currently 19.1. The market’s 20-year average TTM PE is 19.4, which means that earnings growth next year should drive at least modest returns, even if stocks remain just fairly valued. And keep in mind that the stock market is actually one never-ending cycle of alternating greed and fear. This is why just as stocks tend to overshoot to the downside (as they just did), they also overshoot to the upside.

That’s why since 1926 the average 12-month post-correction rally (from the low) has been 34% (not counting dividends). In today’s market that would equate to a 36% total return for stocks by the end of 2019 (from December 24th close). Of course, that is merely a historical average. Historical data only shows what stocks are likely to do, and is not a guarantee of what they will do (no one can make such guarantees).

But remember those scary quarterly declines for both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000? Well, here’s the good news. After such a major shellacking, stocks almost always rally strong and hard in both the short- and long-term.

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

With the exception of 2001 (9/11) and 2002 (tech bubble bursting), even small-cap stocks have never followed such a miserable quarter with a negative 12-month total return. And over three and five years periods following such quarters, negative returns have literally never happened. That’s not to say that such a thing is impossible, just highly improbable unless you get a perfect storm of events occurring. One possible catalyst for stocks to still be down in 12 months might be the US defaulting on its debt during a failed debt ceiling showdown which Goldman Sachs (GS) has warned is coming between August and October of next year.

But barring an extremely stupid and catastrophic blunder by our government, stocks are likely to be up in a year, potentially a lot, thanks to today’s highly attractive valuations.

But wait a second?! Didn’t I just warn investors that Wall Street, due to the infinite stupidity of investors and the dominance of trading by computers, can be crazy volatile? Didn’t I point out that we’re overdue for not just a 5% single market decline but even a 10% single day bloodbath? Indeed I did.

The final lesson of 2018 isn’t that investors can, or should, attempt to avoid volatility, but rather safeguard their portfolios against it.

(Source: Morningstar)

Believe it or not, stocks haven’t been the best-performing asset class in history despite gut-wrenching volatility but because of it. That’s because most of the market’s returns come from just a handful of its best single day gains, which are almost all clustered during times of peak downside volatility.

Missing just the market’s best 30 days over the past 20 years would mean that an investor in the S&P 500 would have given up all positive total returns. Miss just 50 of the best days and over 20 years, your portfolio would have declined by 60%. For context, the peak decline during the Great Recession was just 57%.

What this effectively means is that good market timing is essentially impossible, and one of the most destructive things you can try with your portfolio. Literally, billion-dollar hedge funds and large investment banks (like Goldman) have spent fortunes on trying to perfect market timing systems, including using an army of quants and AI-driven algorithms. None has yet succeeded in mastering market timing (if it had, it would own most of the world by now).

The key to harnessing the awesome wealth-building power of the stock market is not to avoid short-term volatility, but rather to avoid a large permanent loss of capital. Or as the infinitely quotable Warren Buffett put it, the key to good investing is to remember two important rules.

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No 1.” Now as always Buffettisms need to be clarified. The greatest investor in history isn’t literally saying that you can avoid losing money on every single investment you make. Rather he means all investors need to ensure their portfolios lack a critical point of failure, which results in disastrous mistakes, like selling perfectly good investments during a bear market, at ludicrously low valuations. Or to put another way, you need to avoid being a forced seller of quality stocks during a market decline.

There are two critical points of failure for most investors. The first is the use of margin. As the Oracle of Omaha explains:

“My partner Charlie says there is only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies and leverage…Now the truth is – the first two he just added because they started with L – it’s leverage… It is crazy in my view to borrow money on securities… It’s insane to risk what you have and need for something you don’t really need… You will not be way happier if you double your net worth.” – Warren Buffett (emphasis added)

Now I too have made the mistake of falling under the siren song of margin. In fact, that’s why for the next 15 months I’ll be unable to participate in the glorious bargains all around us because I have to eliminate my leverage to zero and start building up cash reserves. I’m very fortunate that my dangerous dabbling with leverage isn’t likely to actually force me to realize terrible losses on otherwise great stocks. My best friend wasn’t so lucky. In the last 2 weeks, margin calls have forced him to realize losses that wiped out two years’ worth of gains. The price I’m paying for my mistake is missed opportunity. His is being forced to lock in catastrophic paper losses on perfectly good and ridiculously undervalued blue-chip dividend growth stocks.

While margin isn’t necessarily of the devil, Buffett’s warning against it (which I now heartily endorse and will personally live by going forward) pertains to the vast majority of people. Remember that leverage amplifies not just losses and gains, but emotions. And it’s emotions, particularly severe fear during downturns, that is the greatest single enemy of most investors.

That’s why over the past two decades, the typical retail investor has underperformed every asset class, and barely stayed ahead of inflation.

Which brings me to the biggest point of failure for most people (even those who wisely avoid margin). That would be the wrong asset allocation.

Since WWII, the average correction has lasted (peak to peak) eight months, and the average bear market (82% of which occurs during recessions) 35 months.

Since the first rule of investing is to avoid a permanent loss of capital, you need to be able to avoid panic selling even when stocks fall to shockingly low levels (and with sometimes terrifying speed). This is where the right capital allocation comes in. Asset allocation simply means your portfolio’s mix of cash/bonds/stocks.

The right asset allocation is essential to being able to emotionally and financially endure the market’s inevitable future declines. The right asset allocation will differ for everyone based on your risk tolerances, goals, time horizon, portfolio size, income, savings rate, etc. You can talk to a certified financial planner (a fee-only Fiduciary that can’t peddle you expensive mutual funds they get kickbacks on is best) to determine the right asset allocation for you.

Note that your asset allocation will change over time, and might require periodic portfolio rebalancing (as stocks and bonds in it rise and fall and your life circumstances change).

(Source: Charles Schwab)

Here’s an example of the standard asset allocation Schwab recommends for the typical retiree. Those are some good overall asset allocation recommendations, but here’s the most important thing to remember during corrections and bear markets.

Cash is king. Or more specifically, cash is what pays the bills during retirement (and allows you to buy quality stocks at fire-sale prices). Since the average bear market lasts for three years (before stocks are back to all-time highs), you want to have three years’ worth of cash available to supplement social security and any pension you may have. What if the bear market is more severe and longer than average?

(Source: Moon Capital Management)

That’s certainly possible. The longest recovery time (from the bear market low to fresh all-time highs) was 69 months or nearly six years. This is where bonds come in. Not just do they provide income, but due to falling interest rates and a flight to safety, bonds tend to rise during a bear market.

So if you are tapped out on cash equivalents (like Treasury notes and money market accounts), you will likely be able to sell bonds at a profit to cover your expenses. And since cash doesn’t decline in value, and bonds tend to rise during a big decline, your cash/bond allocation will help decrease your overall portfolio’s decline, making it easier to avoid panic selling your stocks (emotional point of failure).

For most people being 100% in stocks is a bad idea. Unless your portfolio is large enough to live entirely off safe and growing dividends during retirement (the goal of my new Deep Value Dividend Growth Portfolio), you will need some cash and bonds to be able to take full advantage of the wealth-building power of stocks. Remember the best stock investing strategy on earth is useless if you can’t emotionally or financially stick to it through the entire market cycle.

During corrections (or possibly a non-recessionary bear market) like this, peak market declines and recovery times are shorter than during a typical bear market. So use how you’re feeling now to test your risk tolerance and determine if your asset allocation is actually right for you.

If you’re losing sleep now, when stocks appear to have bottomed after merely a 19.8% decline, you’ll want to make sure that you are less exposed to stocks when the real bear market finally arrives. That can help you avoid emotions (or financial necessity) being your critical point of failure, no matter how unpredictable or crazy the infinitely irrational (in the short-term) and increasingly computer-driven market becomes.

Bottom Line: A Crazy 2018 Serves To Teach Valuable Lessons For 2019 And Far Beyond

I’ve been investing since the age of nine (23 years). And I’ve been a professional analyst/investment writer for four. Yet 2018 has still been eye-opening for me, highlighting the fact that the only predictable thing about Wall Street is its unpredictability.

Don’t let 2017’s freakishly small drawdown fool you. Volatility is not just normal, but has been gradually rising over time, thanks to the growing popularity of ETFs and computerized trading. In the future, we can expect not just similar volatility, but possibly some REALLY wild short-term swings, including a 10% single-day market flash crash that’s now historically overdue.

And while the media may fixate on the broader market (S&P 500 most of all), the fact is that even a moderate downturn, like this correction, can translate into a bear market for even high-quality stocks (including blue-chips and dividend aristocrats and kings) and individual investor portfolios.

But don’t let high volatility and the occasional bear market scare you away from the most time-tested and effective way of building long-term wealth ever discovered. The market’s great historical returns are not despite volatility, but a direct result of the very same short-term gut-wrenching declines investors so fear and hate.

That’s why the most important lesson from this wild 2018 is that risk management isn’t just important, it’s the most critical part of your long-term investing plan. The best investing strategy in the world will prove utterly useless if your emotions or finances don’t allow you to stick with it long enough to work.

Investors need to make sure their asset allocation is right for them. This means holding the right mix of cash/bonds/stocks to both meet their long-term financial goals, BUT also stay calm during the inevitable correction and bear market. And if you want to use margin, just remember to use it with EXTREME caution because it’s a powerful tool that can both greatly increase wealth and also destroy it with alarming speed and violence.

Ultimately the goal of every investor must be to build a bunker portfolio that is based on the motto “hope for the best, but plan for the worst”. While it’s popular to speculate about what will happen in the next quarter or year in terms of the economy or corporate earnings, the fact is that no one knows what craziness the market will bring in the short-term.

So rather than obsess over market timing (historically impossible even for the largest financial institutions) and trying to avoid short-term volatility, investors need to be prepared not just to survive whatever Wall Street throws at you but actually profit from it. Remember that every crisis is also an opportunity, and fortune favors the prepared mind.

If you are careful in how you construct your portfolio, then you can benefit from the fact that bull markets make you money, but in the long-term, it’s bear markets that make your rich.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Tech

[awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat]

The 3 Most Valuable Investing Lessons For 2019

New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/the-3-most-valuable-investing-lessons-for-2019/

The 3 Most Valuable Investing Lessons For 2019

(Source: imgflip)

What a year it’s been! In 2017 it was market heaven for most investors.

The S&P 500 (SPY) not just delivered more than double its historical return of 9.2%, but did so with a peak decline (from all-time highs) of just 3%. That’s compared to the average intra-year peak decline of 13.8% since 1980. It was one of the best years ever, with the lowest volatility in over half a century.

Well, volatility came roaring back with a vengeance in 2018, with the stock market experiencing not just one, but two corrections. In fact, here’s how the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), Nasdaq (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) fared by their December 24th lows (so far).

^SPX data by YCharts

The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (small caps) were both firmly in bear markets, while the Dow and S&P came within a stone’s throw of ending the longest bull market in US history (technically, it’s still alive).

What’s more, all four major indexes are now negative for the year, which means stocks are set for their worst performance since 2008.

SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

But my point here isn’t to point out what a crummy year it’s been for stock investors, but rather to point out three valuable lessons we need to learn from this crazy year. Lessons that can help us not just become better investors over time, but most importantly maximize the chances of achieving our long-term financial dreams.

1. Markets Can Be Far More Volatile Than You Expect

If it feels like this has been an especially volatile time for stocks, that’s because it has been. In fact two weeks ago we had the worst week for the market since 2008, and are currently on track for the worst December since 1931 (at the peak of the Great Depression).

But the thing about volatility is that it doesn’t just come and go over time. Since 1958 market volatility has been cyclical, but trending steadily higher.

S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Daily Return Volatility

(Source: Ploutos Research)

As Blackstone’s Byron Wien explains, this is largely a function of both the increased popularity of passive investing as well as computerized trading (which is how passive funds invest their funds).

Recent research suggests that 60%-90% of daily equity trading is now performed by algorithmic trading, up from 25% in 2004. Meanwhile, passive exchange-traded funds have directed trillions of dollars into equity markets since 2009, and the percent of the U.S. equity market share captured by passive strategies has increased from 26% at the start of 2009 to 47% as of 3Q’18. All of these trends are likely to increase volatility moving forward.” – Byron Wien (emphasis added)

In addition to market cap weighted index funds causing periods of blind selling regardless of valuations and fundamentals, you also have robo trading programs that are designed to purely sell, or even short stocks, based on certain technical indicators (which also ignore valuations and fundamentals).

As Benjamin Graham, Buffett’s mentor and the father of modern value investing, famously said:

“In the short run, the market is like a voting machine – tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine – assessing the substance of a company.”

As December has shown us, even high-quality companies, with excellent fundamentals and strong growing cash flow, can become deeply unpopular with the market at times of extreme fear. And thanks to nearly half the market being invested in ETFs, and up to 90% of daily trading being run by computer (including based on headlines and even Trump tweets), the market can become incredibly stupid in the short-term, resulting in stock prices becoming completely disconnected from either their fundamentals or the fundamentals of the economy or overall corporate earnings.

As Albert Einstein said, “Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not yet completely sure about the universe.” Well, this is also true of the market. When investors get scared enough, then the potent combination of blind ETF induced selling and computerized trading can lead to some truly shocking sharp and short-term declines.

Harvard finance professor Xavier Gabaix’s 2005 study Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility looked at the October 19th, 1987 (Black Monday) 22.6% stock market decline (the worst in US history). That kind of decline under standard probability theory should occur once every 4.6 billion years. However, the world is far more complex than standard deviation curves would have you believe (Black Monday was a 20 standard deviation event which is essentially impossible).

That’s why the Harvard study concluded that a Black Monday style crash (largely driven by computer trading) is actually likely to occur, on average, once every 104 years. Now that doesn’t mean that such a crash necessarily will occur with predictable frequency. As Mark Hulbert, the author of the Hulbert Financial Digest explains:

“Note carefully that this doesn’t mean a crash this big will occur every 104 years. This instead will be their average frequency over long periods. So it’s possible that we will not experience another 1987-magnitude crash in our lifetimes – or that another will occur today.” – Mark Hulbert

But while a 20+% one day crash (that plunges us instantly into a bear market) are extremely rare (but far more likely than most investors realize), severe 10% daily drops are to be expected, per Professor Gabaix, about every 13 years.

(Source: Market Watch)

5% market declines are likely to occur 61 times per century, or on average once every 1.6 years. As Hulbert points out, the last 5% one-day market decline was in August 2011, and the last 10% market decline was over 30 years ago. Thus we’re actually overdue for a single-day stock market decline that would instantly put us into a correction (or possibly a bear market).

But it’s not just wild one-day broad market declines that have investors spooked these days. Another lesson from 2018 is that even when the S&P 500 isn’t in a bear market, your portfolio might be.

2. Your Portfolio Isn’t The Stock Market And The Market Isn’t Your Portfolio

While the stock market never officially entered a bear market (defined as S&P 500 closing down 20% or more below its all-time high), on December 20th 60% of the S&P 500 companies were in one (a figure that rose to about 66% by December 24).

What’s more as far as quarters go, as of December 21st, the S&P was having its 14th worst quarter ever. On December 24th, the biggest Christmas Eve drop in history, the quarterly performance of the S&P 500 became the 9th worst ever.

S&P 500 Worst Quarters

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense) – data as of Dec 23rd

But as bad as Q4 has been for the broader market, as we’ve just seen, individual stocks often faired far worse. On December 21st, the Russell 2000 (small caps) was suffering its fourth-worst quarter since its inception in 1979.

Russell 2000 Worst Quarters

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

When the market appears to have bottomed December 24th (yet to be determined), it became the 3rd worst quarter ever for US small caps. The point is that, depending on what you actually own, even standard corrections can be far more painful at the individual level.

Which brings us to the most important lesson of all from this memorable 2018.

3. If Your Portfolio Has A Critical Point Of Failure, It Will Eventually Fail Critically

Let me be very clear that I am NOT trying to scare anyone out of long-term investing. That’s because the current economic and earnings fundamentals are still pointing to positive growth over the next year or two, and today’s valuations are extremely attractive.

(Source: FactSet Research)

For example, right now most analysts expect about 8% EPS growth for the S&P 500 next year. Even energy stocks, despite the fastest oil crash in decades (43% in two months), are expected to generate nearly double-digit earnings growth.

Today the S&P 500’s forward PE ratio is just 14.2, and most sectors are historically undervalued, especially compared to a year ago.

(Source: Fortune Financial Advisors)

What do today’s historically attractive valuations mean in terms of future returns? Well, over the short-term (1-year), it’s hard to know. But historically a forward PE of 14.2 has resulted in about 17% 12-month returns. But over the long-term (five years) total returns become far more predictable and today’s valuations point to roughly 15% returns.

Don’t trust forward PEs? Well, then let’s use trailing earnings. The S&P 500’s TTM PE is currently 19.1. The market’s 20-year average TTM PE is 19.4, which means that earnings growth next year should drive at least modest returns, even if stocks remain just fairly valued. And keep in mind that the stock market is actually one never-ending cycle of alternating greed and fear. This is why just as stocks tend to overshoot to the downside (as they just did), they also overshoot to the upside.

That’s why since 1926 the average 12-month post-correction rally (from the low) has been 34% (not counting dividends). In today’s market that would equate to a 36% total return for stocks by the end of 2019 (from December 24th close). Of course, that is merely a historical average. Historical data only shows what stocks are likely to do, and is not a guarantee of what they will do (no one can make such guarantees).

But remember those scary quarterly declines for both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000? Well, here’s the good news. After such a major shellacking, stocks almost always rally strong and hard in both the short- and long-term.

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

With the exception of 2001 (9/11) and 2002 (tech bubble bursting), even small-cap stocks have never followed such a miserable quarter with a negative 12-month total return. And over three and five years periods following such quarters, negative returns have literally never happened. That’s not to say that such a thing is impossible, just highly improbable unless you get a perfect storm of events occurring. One possible catalyst for stocks to still be down in 12 months might be the US defaulting on its debt during a failed debt ceiling showdown which Goldman Sachs (GS) has warned is coming between August and October of next year.

But barring an extremely stupid and catastrophic blunder by our government, stocks are likely to be up in a year, potentially a lot, thanks to today’s highly attractive valuations.

But wait a second?! Didn’t I just warn investors that Wall Street, due to the infinite stupidity of investors and the dominance of trading by computers, can be crazy volatile? Didn’t I point out that we’re overdue for not just a 5% single market decline but even a 10% single day bloodbath? Indeed I did.

The final lesson of 2018 isn’t that investors can, or should, attempt to avoid volatility, but rather safeguard their portfolios against it.

(Source: Morningstar)

Believe it or not, stocks haven’t been the best-performing asset class in history despite gut-wrenching volatility but because of it. That’s because most of the market’s returns come from just a handful of its best single day gains, which are almost all clustered during times of peak downside volatility.

Missing just the market’s best 30 days over the past 20 years would mean that an investor in the S&P 500 would have given up all positive total returns. Miss just 50 of the best days and over 20 years, your portfolio would have declined by 60%. For context, the peak decline during the Great Recession was just 57%.

What this effectively means is that good market timing is essentially impossible, and one of the most destructive things you can try with your portfolio. Literally, billion-dollar hedge funds and large investment banks (like Goldman) have spent fortunes on trying to perfect market timing systems, including using an army of quants and AI-driven algorithms. None has yet succeeded in mastering market timing (if it had, it would own most of the world by now).

The key to harnessing the awesome wealth-building power of the stock market is not to avoid short-term volatility, but rather to avoid a large permanent loss of capital. Or as the infinitely quotable Warren Buffett put it, the key to good investing is to remember two important rules.

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No 1.” Now as always Buffettisms need to be clarified. The greatest investor in history isn’t literally saying that you can avoid losing money on every single investment you make. Rather he means all investors need to ensure their portfolios lack a critical point of failure, which results in disastrous mistakes, like selling perfectly good investments during a bear market, at ludicrously low valuations. Or to put another way, you need to avoid being a forced seller of quality stocks during a market decline.

There are two critical points of failure for most investors. The first is the use of margin. As the Oracle of Omaha explains:

“My partner Charlie says there is only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies and leverage…Now the truth is – the first two he just added because they started with L – it’s leverage… It is crazy in my view to borrow money on securities… It’s insane to risk what you have and need for something you don’t really need… You will not be way happier if you double your net worth.” – Warren Buffett (emphasis added)

Now I too have made the mistake of falling under the siren song of margin. In fact, that’s why for the next 15 months I’ll be unable to participate in the glorious bargains all around us because I have to eliminate my leverage to zero and start building up cash reserves. I’m very fortunate that my dangerous dabbling with leverage isn’t likely to actually force me to realize terrible losses on otherwise great stocks. My best friend wasn’t so lucky. In the last 2 weeks, margin calls have forced him to realize losses that wiped out two years’ worth of gains. The price I’m paying for my mistake is missed opportunity. His is being forced to lock in catastrophic paper losses on perfectly good and ridiculously undervalued blue-chip dividend growth stocks.

While margin isn’t necessarily of the devil, Buffett’s warning against it (which I now heartily endorse and will personally live by going forward) pertains to the vast majority of people. Remember that leverage amplifies not just losses and gains, but emotions. And it’s emotions, particularly severe fear during downturns, that is the greatest single enemy of most investors.

That’s why over the past two decades, the typical retail investor has underperformed every asset class, and barely stayed ahead of inflation.

Which brings me to the biggest point of failure for most people (even those who wisely avoid margin). That would be the wrong asset allocation.

Since WWII, the average correction has lasted (peak to peak) eight months, and the average bear market (82% of which occurs during recessions) 35 months.

Since the first rule of investing is to avoid a permanent loss of capital, you need to be able to avoid panic selling even when stocks fall to shockingly low levels (and with sometimes terrifying speed). This is where the right capital allocation comes in. Asset allocation simply means your portfolio’s mix of cash/bonds/stocks.

The right asset allocation is essential to being able to emotionally and financially endure the market’s inevitable future declines. The right asset allocation will differ for everyone based on your risk tolerances, goals, time horizon, portfolio size, income, savings rate, etc. You can talk to a certified financial planner (a fee-only Fiduciary that can’t peddle you expensive mutual funds they get kickbacks on is best) to determine the right asset allocation for you.

Note that your asset allocation will change over time, and might require periodic portfolio rebalancing (as stocks and bonds in it rise and fall and your life circumstances change).

(Source: Charles Schwab)

Here’s an example of the standard asset allocation Schwab recommends for the typical retiree. Those are some good overall asset allocation recommendations, but here’s the most important thing to remember during corrections and bear markets.

Cash is king. Or more specifically, cash is what pays the bills during retirement (and allows you to buy quality stocks at fire-sale prices). Since the average bear market lasts for three years (before stocks are back to all-time highs), you want to have three years’ worth of cash available to supplement social security and any pension you may have. What if the bear market is more severe and longer than average?

(Source: Moon Capital Management)

That’s certainly possible. The longest recovery time (from the bear market low to fresh all-time highs) was 69 months or nearly six years. This is where bonds come in. Not just do they provide income, but due to falling interest rates and a flight to safety, bonds tend to rise during a bear market.

So if you are tapped out on cash equivalents (like Treasury notes and money market accounts), you will likely be able to sell bonds at a profit to cover your expenses. And since cash doesn’t decline in value, and bonds tend to rise during a big decline, your cash/bond allocation will help decrease your overall portfolio’s decline, making it easier to avoid panic selling your stocks (emotional point of failure).

For most people being 100% in stocks is a bad idea. Unless your portfolio is large enough to live entirely off safe and growing dividends during retirement (the goal of my new Deep Value Dividend Growth Portfolio), you will need some cash and bonds to be able to take full advantage of the wealth-building power of stocks. Remember the best stock investing strategy on earth is useless if you can’t emotionally or financially stick to it through the entire market cycle.

During corrections (or possibly a non-recessionary bear market) like this, peak market declines and recovery times are shorter than during a typical bear market. So use how you’re feeling now to test your risk tolerance and determine if your asset allocation is actually right for you.

If you’re losing sleep now, when stocks appear to have bottomed after merely a 19.8% decline, you’ll want to make sure that you are less exposed to stocks when the real bear market finally arrives. That can help you avoid emotions (or financial necessity) being your critical point of failure, no matter how unpredictable or crazy the infinitely irrational (in the short-term) and increasingly computer-driven market becomes.

Bottom Line: A Crazy 2018 Serves To Teach Valuable Lessons For 2019 And Far Beyond

I’ve been investing since the age of nine (23 years). And I’ve been a professional analyst/investment writer for four. Yet 2018 has still been eye-opening for me, highlighting the fact that the only predictable thing about Wall Street is its unpredictability.

Don’t let 2017’s freakishly small drawdown fool you. Volatility is not just normal, but has been gradually rising over time, thanks to the growing popularity of ETFs and computerized trading. In the future, we can expect not just similar volatility, but possibly some REALLY wild short-term swings, including a 10% single-day market flash crash that’s now historically overdue.

And while the media may fixate on the broader market (S&P 500 most of all), the fact is that even a moderate downturn, like this correction, can translate into a bear market for even high-quality stocks (including blue-chips and dividend aristocrats and kings) and individual investor portfolios.

But don’t let high volatility and the occasional bear market scare you away from the most time-tested and effective way of building long-term wealth ever discovered. The market’s great historical returns are not despite volatility, but a direct result of the very same short-term gut-wrenching declines investors so fear and hate.

That’s why the most important lesson from this wild 2018 is that risk management isn’t just important, it’s the most critical part of your long-term investing plan. The best investing strategy in the world will prove utterly useless if your emotions or finances don’t allow you to stick with it long enough to work.

Investors need to make sure their asset allocation is right for them. This means holding the right mix of cash/bonds/stocks to both meet their long-term financial goals, BUT also stay calm during the inevitable correction and bear market. And if you want to use margin, just remember to use it with EXTREME caution because it’s a powerful tool that can both greatly increase wealth and also destroy it with alarming speed and violence.

Ultimately the goal of every investor must be to build a bunker portfolio that is based on the motto “hope for the best, but plan for the worst”. While it’s popular to speculate about what will happen in the next quarter or year in terms of the economy or corporate earnings, the fact is that no one knows what craziness the market will bring in the short-term.

So rather than obsess over market timing (historically impossible even for the largest financial institutions) and trying to avoid short-term volatility, investors need to be prepared not just to survive whatever Wall Street throws at you but actually profit from it. Remember that every crisis is also an opportunity, and fortune favors the prepared mind.

If you are careful in how you construct your portfolio, then you can benefit from the fact that bull markets make you money, but in the long-term, it’s bear markets that make your rich.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Tech

[lazilysillyprince]

The 3 Most Valuable Investing Lessons For 2019

New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/the-3-most-valuable-investing-lessons-for-2019/

The 3 Most Valuable Investing Lessons For 2019

(Source: imgflip)

What a year it’s been! In 2017 it was market heaven for most investors.

The S&P 500 (SPY) not just delivered more than double its historical return of 9.2%, but did so with a peak decline (from all-time highs) of just 3%. That’s compared to the average intra-year peak decline of 13.8% since 1980. It was one of the best years ever, with the lowest volatility in over half a century.

Well, volatility came roaring back with a vengeance in 2018, with the stock market experiencing not just one, but two corrections. In fact, here’s how the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), Nasdaq (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) fared by their December 24th lows (so far).

^SPX data by YCharts

The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (small caps) were both firmly in bear markets, while the Dow and S&P came within a stone’s throw of ending the longest bull market in US history (technically, it’s still alive).

What’s more, all four major indexes are now negative for the year, which means stocks are set for their worst performance since 2008.

SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

But my point here isn’t to point out what a crummy year it’s been for stock investors, but rather to point out three valuable lessons we need to learn from this crazy year. Lessons that can help us not just become better investors over time, but most importantly maximize the chances of achieving our long-term financial dreams.

1. Markets Can Be Far More Volatile Than You Expect

If it feels like this has been an especially volatile time for stocks, that’s because it has been. In fact two weeks ago we had the worst week for the market since 2008, and are currently on track for the worst December since 1931 (at the peak of the Great Depression).

But the thing about volatility is that it doesn’t just come and go over time. Since 1958 market volatility has been cyclical, but trending steadily higher.

S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Daily Return Volatility

(Source: Ploutos Research)

As Blackstone’s Byron Wien explains, this is largely a function of both the increased popularity of passive investing as well as computerized trading (which is how passive funds invest their funds).

Recent research suggests that 60%-90% of daily equity trading is now performed by algorithmic trading, up from 25% in 2004. Meanwhile, passive exchange-traded funds have directed trillions of dollars into equity markets since 2009, and the percent of the U.S. equity market share captured by passive strategies has increased from 26% at the start of 2009 to 47% as of 3Q’18. All of these trends are likely to increase volatility moving forward.” – Byron Wien (emphasis added)

In addition to market cap weighted index funds causing periods of blind selling regardless of valuations and fundamentals, you also have robo trading programs that are designed to purely sell, or even short stocks, based on certain technical indicators (which also ignore valuations and fundamentals).

As Benjamin Graham, Buffett’s mentor and the father of modern value investing, famously said:

“In the short run, the market is like a voting machine – tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine – assessing the substance of a company.”

As December has shown us, even high-quality companies, with excellent fundamentals and strong growing cash flow, can become deeply unpopular with the market at times of extreme fear. And thanks to nearly half the market being invested in ETFs, and up to 90% of daily trading being run by computer (including based on headlines and even Trump tweets), the market can become incredibly stupid in the short-term, resulting in stock prices becoming completely disconnected from either their fundamentals or the fundamentals of the economy or overall corporate earnings.

As Albert Einstein said, “Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not yet completely sure about the universe.” Well, this is also true of the market. When investors get scared enough, then the potent combination of blind ETF induced selling and computerized trading can lead to some truly shocking sharp and short-term declines.

Harvard finance professor Xavier Gabaix’s 2005 study Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility looked at the October 19th, 1987 (Black Monday) 22.6% stock market decline (the worst in US history). That kind of decline under standard probability theory should occur once every 4.6 billion years. However, the world is far more complex than standard deviation curves would have you believe (Black Monday was a 20 standard deviation event which is essentially impossible).

That’s why the Harvard study concluded that a Black Monday style crash (largely driven by computer trading) is actually likely to occur, on average, once every 104 years. Now that doesn’t mean that such a crash necessarily will occur with predictable frequency. As Mark Hulbert, the author of the Hulbert Financial Digest explains:

“Note carefully that this doesn’t mean a crash this big will occur every 104 years. This instead will be their average frequency over long periods. So it’s possible that we will not experience another 1987-magnitude crash in our lifetimes – or that another will occur today.” – Mark Hulbert

But while a 20+% one day crash (that plunges us instantly into a bear market) are extremely rare (but far more likely than most investors realize), severe 10% daily drops are to be expected, per Professor Gabaix, about every 13 years.

(Source: Market Watch)

5% market declines are likely to occur 61 times per century, or on average once every 1.6 years. As Hulbert points out, the last 5% one-day market decline was in August 2011, and the last 10% market decline was over 30 years ago. Thus we’re actually overdue for a single-day stock market decline that would instantly put us into a correction (or possibly a bear market).

But it’s not just wild one-day broad market declines that have investors spooked these days. Another lesson from 2018 is that even when the S&P 500 isn’t in a bear market, your portfolio might be.

2. Your Portfolio Isn’t The Stock Market And The Market Isn’t Your Portfolio

While the stock market never officially entered a bear market (defined as S&P 500 closing down 20% or more below its all-time high), on December 20th 60% of the S&P 500 companies were in one (a figure that rose to about 66% by December 24).

What’s more as far as quarters go, as of December 21st, the S&P was having its 14th worst quarter ever. On December 24th, the biggest Christmas Eve drop in history, the quarterly performance of the S&P 500 became the 9th worst ever.

S&P 500 Worst Quarters

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense) – data as of Dec 23rd

But as bad as Q4 has been for the broader market, as we’ve just seen, individual stocks often faired far worse. On December 21st, the Russell 2000 (small caps) was suffering its fourth-worst quarter since its inception in 1979.

Russell 2000 Worst Quarters

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

When the market appears to have bottomed December 24th (yet to be determined), it became the 3rd worst quarter ever for US small caps. The point is that, depending on what you actually own, even standard corrections can be far more painful at the individual level.

Which brings us to the most important lesson of all from this memorable 2018.

3. If Your Portfolio Has A Critical Point Of Failure, It Will Eventually Fail Critically

Let me be very clear that I am NOT trying to scare anyone out of long-term investing. That’s because the current economic and earnings fundamentals are still pointing to positive growth over the next year or two, and today’s valuations are extremely attractive.

(Source: FactSet Research)

For example, right now most analysts expect about 8% EPS growth for the S&P 500 next year. Even energy stocks, despite the fastest oil crash in decades (43% in two months), are expected to generate nearly double-digit earnings growth.

Today the S&P 500’s forward PE ratio is just 14.2, and most sectors are historically undervalued, especially compared to a year ago.

(Source: Fortune Financial Advisors)

What do today’s historically attractive valuations mean in terms of future returns? Well, over the short-term (1-year), it’s hard to know. But historically a forward PE of 14.2 has resulted in about 17% 12-month returns. But over the long-term (five years) total returns become far more predictable and today’s valuations point to roughly 15% returns.

Don’t trust forward PEs? Well, then let’s use trailing earnings. The S&P 500’s TTM PE is currently 19.1. The market’s 20-year average TTM PE is 19.4, which means that earnings growth next year should drive at least modest returns, even if stocks remain just fairly valued. And keep in mind that the stock market is actually one never-ending cycle of alternating greed and fear. This is why just as stocks tend to overshoot to the downside (as they just did), they also overshoot to the upside.

That’s why since 1926 the average 12-month post-correction rally (from the low) has been 34% (not counting dividends). In today’s market that would equate to a 36% total return for stocks by the end of 2019 (from December 24th close). Of course, that is merely a historical average. Historical data only shows what stocks are likely to do, and is not a guarantee of what they will do (no one can make such guarantees).

But remember those scary quarterly declines for both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000? Well, here’s the good news. After such a major shellacking, stocks almost always rally strong and hard in both the short- and long-term.

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

With the exception of 2001 (9/11) and 2002 (tech bubble bursting), even small-cap stocks have never followed such a miserable quarter with a negative 12-month total return. And over three and five years periods following such quarters, negative returns have literally never happened. That’s not to say that such a thing is impossible, just highly improbable unless you get a perfect storm of events occurring. One possible catalyst for stocks to still be down in 12 months might be the US defaulting on its debt during a failed debt ceiling showdown which Goldman Sachs (GS) has warned is coming between August and October of next year.

But barring an extremely stupid and catastrophic blunder by our government, stocks are likely to be up in a year, potentially a lot, thanks to today’s highly attractive valuations.

But wait a second?! Didn’t I just warn investors that Wall Street, due to the infinite stupidity of investors and the dominance of trading by computers, can be crazy volatile? Didn’t I point out that we’re overdue for not just a 5% single market decline but even a 10% single day bloodbath? Indeed I did.

The final lesson of 2018 isn’t that investors can, or should, attempt to avoid volatility, but rather safeguard their portfolios against it.

(Source: Morningstar)

Believe it or not, stocks haven’t been the best-performing asset class in history despite gut-wrenching volatility but because of it. That’s because most of the market’s returns come from just a handful of its best single day gains, which are almost all clustered during times of peak downside volatility.

Missing just the market’s best 30 days over the past 20 years would mean that an investor in the S&P 500 would have given up all positive total returns. Miss just 50 of the best days and over 20 years, your portfolio would have declined by 60%. For context, the peak decline during the Great Recession was just 57%.

What this effectively means is that good market timing is essentially impossible, and one of the most destructive things you can try with your portfolio. Literally, billion-dollar hedge funds and large investment banks (like Goldman) have spent fortunes on trying to perfect market timing systems, including using an army of quants and AI-driven algorithms. None has yet succeeded in mastering market timing (if it had, it would own most of the world by now).

The key to harnessing the awesome wealth-building power of the stock market is not to avoid short-term volatility, but rather to avoid a large permanent loss of capital. Or as the infinitely quotable Warren Buffett put it, the key to good investing is to remember two important rules.

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No 1.” Now as always Buffettisms need to be clarified. The greatest investor in history isn’t literally saying that you can avoid losing money on every single investment you make. Rather he means all investors need to ensure their portfolios lack a critical point of failure, which results in disastrous mistakes, like selling perfectly good investments during a bear market, at ludicrously low valuations. Or to put another way, you need to avoid being a forced seller of quality stocks during a market decline.

There are two critical points of failure for most investors. The first is the use of margin. As the Oracle of Omaha explains:

“My partner Charlie says there is only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies and leverage…Now the truth is – the first two he just added because they started with L – it’s leverage… It is crazy in my view to borrow money on securities… It’s insane to risk what you have and need for something you don’t really need… You will not be way happier if you double your net worth.” – Warren Buffett (emphasis added)

Now I too have made the mistake of falling under the siren song of margin. In fact, that’s why for the next 15 months I’ll be unable to participate in the glorious bargains all around us because I have to eliminate my leverage to zero and start building up cash reserves. I’m very fortunate that my dangerous dabbling with leverage isn’t likely to actually force me to realize terrible losses on otherwise great stocks. My best friend wasn’t so lucky. In the last 2 weeks, margin calls have forced him to realize losses that wiped out two years’ worth of gains. The price I’m paying for my mistake is missed opportunity. His is being forced to lock in catastrophic paper losses on perfectly good and ridiculously undervalued blue-chip dividend growth stocks.

While margin isn’t necessarily of the devil, Buffett’s warning against it (which I now heartily endorse and will personally live by going forward) pertains to the vast majority of people. Remember that leverage amplifies not just losses and gains, but emotions. And it’s emotions, particularly severe fear during downturns, that is the greatest single enemy of most investors.

That’s why over the past two decades, the typical retail investor has underperformed every asset class, and barely stayed ahead of inflation.

Which brings me to the biggest point of failure for most people (even those who wisely avoid margin). That would be the wrong asset allocation.

Since WWII, the average correction has lasted (peak to peak) eight months, and the average bear market (82% of which occurs during recessions) 35 months.

Since the first rule of investing is to avoid a permanent loss of capital, you need to be able to avoid panic selling even when stocks fall to shockingly low levels (and with sometimes terrifying speed). This is where the right capital allocation comes in. Asset allocation simply means your portfolio’s mix of cash/bonds/stocks.

The right asset allocation is essential to being able to emotionally and financially endure the market’s inevitable future declines. The right asset allocation will differ for everyone based on your risk tolerances, goals, time horizon, portfolio size, income, savings rate, etc. You can talk to a certified financial planner (a fee-only Fiduciary that can’t peddle you expensive mutual funds they get kickbacks on is best) to determine the right asset allocation for you.

Note that your asset allocation will change over time, and might require periodic portfolio rebalancing (as stocks and bonds in it rise and fall and your life circumstances change).

(Source: Charles Schwab)

Here’s an example of the standard asset allocation Schwab recommends for the typical retiree. Those are some good overall asset allocation recommendations, but here’s the most important thing to remember during corrections and bear markets.

Cash is king. Or more specifically, cash is what pays the bills during retirement (and allows you to buy quality stocks at fire-sale prices). Since the average bear market lasts for three years (before stocks are back to all-time highs), you want to have three years’ worth of cash available to supplement social security and any pension you may have. What if the bear market is more severe and longer than average?

(Source: Moon Capital Management)

That’s certainly possible. The longest recovery time (from the bear market low to fresh all-time highs) was 69 months or nearly six years. This is where bonds come in. Not just do they provide income, but due to falling interest rates and a flight to safety, bonds tend to rise during a bear market.

So if you are tapped out on cash equivalents (like Treasury notes and money market accounts), you will likely be able to sell bonds at a profit to cover your expenses. And since cash doesn’t decline in value, and bonds tend to rise during a big decline, your cash/bond allocation will help decrease your overall portfolio’s decline, making it easier to avoid panic selling your stocks (emotional point of failure).

For most people being 100% in stocks is a bad idea. Unless your portfolio is large enough to live entirely off safe and growing dividends during retirement (the goal of my new Deep Value Dividend Growth Portfolio), you will need some cash and bonds to be able to take full advantage of the wealth-building power of stocks. Remember the best stock investing strategy on earth is useless if you can’t emotionally or financially stick to it through the entire market cycle.

During corrections (or possibly a non-recessionary bear market) like this, peak market declines and recovery times are shorter than during a typical bear market. So use how you’re feeling now to test your risk tolerance and determine if your asset allocation is actually right for you.

If you’re losing sleep now, when stocks appear to have bottomed after merely a 19.8% decline, you’ll want to make sure that you are less exposed to stocks when the real bear market finally arrives. That can help you avoid emotions (or financial necessity) being your critical point of failure, no matter how unpredictable or crazy the infinitely irrational (in the short-term) and increasingly computer-driven market becomes.

Bottom Line: A Crazy 2018 Serves To Teach Valuable Lessons For 2019 And Far Beyond

I’ve been investing since the age of nine (23 years). And I’ve been a professional analyst/investment writer for four. Yet 2018 has still been eye-opening for me, highlighting the fact that the only predictable thing about Wall Street is its unpredictability.

Don’t let 2017’s freakishly small drawdown fool you. Volatility is not just normal, but has been gradually rising over time, thanks to the growing popularity of ETFs and computerized trading. In the future, we can expect not just similar volatility, but possibly some REALLY wild short-term swings, including a 10% single-day market flash crash that’s now historically overdue.

And while the media may fixate on the broader market (S&P 500 most of all), the fact is that even a moderate downturn, like this correction, can translate into a bear market for even high-quality stocks (including blue-chips and dividend aristocrats and kings) and individual investor portfolios.

But don’t let high volatility and the occasional bear market scare you away from the most time-tested and effective way of building long-term wealth ever discovered. The market’s great historical returns are not despite volatility, but a direct result of the very same short-term gut-wrenching declines investors so fear and hate.

That’s why the most important lesson from this wild 2018 is that risk management isn’t just important, it’s the most critical part of your long-term investing plan. The best investing strategy in the world will prove utterly useless if your emotions or finances don’t allow you to stick with it long enough to work.

Investors need to make sure their asset allocation is right for them. This means holding the right mix of cash/bonds/stocks to both meet their long-term financial goals, BUT also stay calm during the inevitable correction and bear market. And if you want to use margin, just remember to use it with EXTREME caution because it’s a powerful tool that can both greatly increase wealth and also destroy it with alarming speed and violence.

Ultimately the goal of every investor must be to build a bunker portfolio that is based on the motto “hope for the best, but plan for the worst”. While it’s popular to speculate about what will happen in the next quarter or year in terms of the economy or corporate earnings, the fact is that no one knows what craziness the market will bring in the short-term.

So rather than obsess over market timing (historically impossible even for the largest financial institutions) and trying to avoid short-term volatility, investors need to be prepared not just to survive whatever Wall Street throws at you but actually profit from it. Remember that every crisis is also an opportunity, and fortune favors the prepared mind.

If you are careful in how you construct your portfolio, then you can benefit from the fact that bull markets make you money, but in the long-term, it’s bear markets that make your rich.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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