#int: scott riley

[middleearthpixie]

Seven Days ~ Chapter Twenty-Five

Seven Days -  Modern Tolkien AU

Firefighter Frerin Durin died in a fire set deliberately. But after he helps his brother, Thorin find happiness, Frerin is offered a second chance. He has to prove himself worthy by righting the one major wrong in his life. Otherwise, history will repeat and he will die for good this time. The catch? He has seven days in which to do this and isn’t even certain what his major wrong is.

At least, he doesn’t know for long. 

Syd Prescott has known Frerin since high school. She spent one night with him and then he vanished from her life. Now, he claims he wants to make it up to her, to right was he realizes was his major wrong. But can she trust him? And can he prove to her that she can before it’s too late? 

A/N - I want to apologize for the slow updates, I haven’t been in a great headspace to write, and with all I have to do for school, my free time is going to be at a premium, so updates may be even slower. Thanks so much for your patience…

Pairing: Modern!Frerin x OFC Syd Prescott

Characters: Frerin, Syd, Gram, Nico, Holly Cassidy, Dave Brewer, Capt. Pratt

Warnings: None

Rating: T

Word Count: 3,230

Tag List: @tschrist1 @i-did-not-mean-to @lathalea @linasofia @fizzyxcustard @legolasbadass @kibleedibleedoo @xxbyimm @arrthurpendragon @exhausted-humxn-being @rachel1959 @laurfilijames @sketch-and-write-lover @sherala007 @enchantzz @knittastically @notlostgnome @myselfandfantasy @medusas-hairband @guardianofrivendell @jotink78 @frosticenow @quiall321 @dianakc @msjava1972

If you’d like to be added (or removed) to the tag list, please just let me know!

Previous chapters can be found here.

December 13th & 14th

Monday Night/Tuesday Morning

It was odd, stretching out in her bed with Frerin, with Riley curled up in a ball at the foot of it after she’d sniffed the daylights out of every corner of Syd’s room, but as Frerin draped his arm about her shoulders and pressed a kiss into the top of her head, she found she didn't mind it so much. 

The television was on, the volume at maybe five, and she sighed as she tucked her head against Frerin’s chest, smiling when he tightened his arm about her shoulders. “What’s on your mind, Syd,” he murmured, his fingers sweeping lightly along her shoulder.

“I’m just… comfortable.”

“Yeah? Me, too.”

She smiled into the semi-darkness, draping her arm over his hips, her fingertips brushing along the smooth, warm cotton of his boxer briefs. “There’s something to be said about being comfortable.”

He murmured something that sounded like an agreement, then pressed a kiss into the top of her head. An equally comfortable silence descended upon them, broken up only by the sound of Scott Van Pelt’s voice as he gave the day’s highlights in sports—basketball and hockey mostly. 

“Syd?”

She lifted her head to gaze up at him. “Yeah?”

“What do you want for Christmas?”

“Truth?” She sighed softly. “For this to be over with. With Tori, I mean. It bothers me that she’s back, so to speak.”

“Yeah, me, too.” His fingers went still. “You think Gram will figure out how we deal with this?”

“I do, yeah.” Syd slid her hand up along his firm stomach, along the trail of soft hair that swirled around his navel and then upward toward his chest. She had faith in Gram, and if all else failed, Syd was pretty sure she had an idea that might work as well. She just wanted to run it by Gram before she said anything to him. 

The bed creaked softly as he shifted, coming up to cover her, smiling as he said, “You think they can hear us downstairs?”

“No one else is awake at this hour,” she told him. In the soft glow given off by the television, he looked almost sinister, his eyes pale slivers of ice beneath his dark brows, the St. Florian medallion throwing off flashes of light, the nazar a millimeter from his skin, the leather cord not long enough to allow for much more. “I think we’re good.”

She waited for the that feral look to come to his pale eyes, to lift the corners of his lips into that sinful grin she’d come to know so well. 

But instead, he just gazed down at her. “I love you.”

“I know,” she told him, tracing her fingernails lightly along his back. “And I love you, too.”

He bent to her then, his lips teasing as they met hers. SVP melted into the background as Syd lost herself in Frerin’s kiss, which came slow and teasing and deep, and when he pulled back, he whispered, “Let’s get married, Syd.”

“What?”

“Let’s just do it.” 

“Frerin, we talked about this and—”

“I know,” he cut her off softly, “I know it’s fucking crazy, but I don't know… I just feel like we should, Syd.”

“You feel like we should?”

“Yeah. It’s just… a feeling I have. And don't ask me to explain why because I don't think I can, but it’s there and I just think we—”

She silenced him with a finger pressed to his lips. “Before you pass out,” she whispered, holding his gaze, smiling as his eyes softened. “By feeling, do you mean like when you have the feeling you should play a certain number combination in the lottery or you should maybe go a different way to work than usual?”

He nodded, his, “Yeah,” somewhat muffled by her finger. He waited for her to pull it away before adding, “I know I sound nuts, Syd, but I can’t shake it. I just—I don't know. It’s just—” He drew in a deep breath, exhaled slowly, and finished with, “I’ve felt it since I saw Tori earlier. I’m worried about you, Syd.”

“She isn’t getting in here without an invitation,” Syd told him, although her confidence in that wavered as he shook his head, and it was her turn to inhale deeply before saying, “Why are you shaking your head?”

“She’s already been in here.”

A hint of silvery fear shot through her. “What?”

“Yeah, she told me, back before you knew I’d been dead, that she was here. She said you all couldn't see her, that you didn't know she was there and if that—”

“Frerin,��� she interrupted softly, “I don't think anyone could get past Gram and I’ve the feeling she’s probably made sure to secure the house as best she could.”

She bit back a sigh as his eyes widened slightly, then narrowed and she wasn’t at all surprised when he murmured, “Are you guys really witches?”

“What do you think?”

He held her gaze and she held her breath as he pondered it a moment. Then, he leaned in, brushed her lips with his, and murmured, “I think I should make sure I never piss you off.”

“Well, I think that ship has already sailed and yet,” she winked up at him, “you’re still here, so…”

“Syd…”

“We don't use our gifts that way, babe,” she told him softly, shaking her head as she reached up to brush a wayward lock of dark hair away from where it fell over his left eye. “Gram drilled I into us that we should never, unless we have absolutely no choice. You can’t just go around hexing people for no good reason. Just like we aren’t supposed to use our gifts to try to split up a couple or win a man for ourselves.”

“But you could, if you wanted to.”

She hesitated for a moment, but then slowly nodded. “I could. And so can all of us.”

“Except Al.”

“No, she probably could, too. She would just have to work a lot harder than the rest of us.” She traced her forefinger along his jaw, toward his ear. As it grew thicker, his beard softened some, no longer quite as prickly as it had been only a week earlier. It was funny, but until he came back into her life, she never found beards particularly attractive. But now? She couldn't imagine him without it and wasn’t so sure she’d want him to ever shave it off. 

“Syd?”

“I love you,” she whispered, her finger going still, “and I am not letting that spook get her hands on you again. And if I have to break one of Gram’s rules to do it, I will. But, you have to promise me, you will not take this—” she brushed the cobalt glass with the same finger she’d traced his jawline with—“off. For any reason.”

“I won’t.”

“Promise me, Frerin.”

“I promise you, Syd, I won’t take it off. Hell, I took off St. Florian and died in a fire. I’m not stupid enough to make the same mistake twice.”

“Good.” The television timer went off without warning, going suddenly silent as it plunged them into darkness. She glanced over at the clock. “It’s almost midnight. We should get some sleep.”

“You sure you want to sleep?”

She smiled up at him. “Are you offering me something better?”

“What do you think?”

“I think I might need a little convincing. It’s getting pretty late.”

She bit back a chuckle at the glint in Frerin’s eyes and when he bent to brush her lips with his, it was all the convincing she needed. 

****

A soft buzzing roused Frerin from a somewhat unsettled sleep and he picked up his head to squint at his cell buzzing across the cherrywood night stand. He threw his hand toward it, knocking it off said nightstand and onto the floor, screen up to show his firehouse number on the home screen.

“Fuck…” He lunged for the phone, snatched it up, and managed to toggle to accept the call, rubbing his eyes with his free hand as he growled, “Durin here.”

“Rise and shine, sweetheart,” Nico’s voice was far more cheerful than was humanly possible, “it’s time for work.”

“I’m on the bench this week, Nico, remember? For taking my mask off to give to Syd at the warehouse.”

“Well, kiss your girlfriend and get your ass in here. Chief’s calling in everyone. Massive apartment building fire on the Northside. All hands on deck.”

Frerin squinted at the clock on the bookshelf across from the bed. Three-fifteen. “I’ll be there in five.”

“I knew you wouldn’t want to miss the party. Don't drive like an asshole.”

Nico clicked off as Syd stirred. “Frerin?”

“I’ve got to go,” he told her, already sliding from bed, biting back a yelp as his feet touched the cold hardwood floor. “Apartment fire and the entire department’s recalled.”

“I thought you were suspended?”

“I was and now I’m not.” He reached for his jeans, draped over the arm chair by the window, and slid into the them, then grabbed the cream colored henley he’d worn the previous day to tug over his head. Socks and boots were next and as he lifted his leather jacket to shrug into, he said, “I’ll call you when I get back to the station, okay, Syd?”

“Yeah, but… be careful, okay? You’re sure it was the department that called?”

As she said it, the scream of sirens rent the air and he nodded. “Yeah. I think this might be a bit much even for her. And I’ll be careful.”

He leaned over to kiss her, smiling as she slid her arms about him and gave him a squeeze. “Please, keep watch over your shoulder.”

“I’ll be fine, baby. Promise.” He drew back and winked. “I love you.”

She didn't look at all mollified by his reassurance, but nodded. “I love you, too.”

He didn't really want to leave her, especially with her as worried as she was, but since he really had no choice, he pulled the bedroom door shut behind him and made his way out to his Jeep as quietly as he could. 

He was halfway to the Jeep, the frigid night air biting into him, the wind ruffling through his hair, when the front door opened and he spun about as Syd called, “You need a key.”

“What?”

She held out a keyring. “I’m not leaving the front door unlocked. Remember? The crazies?”

He jogged back up to her. “You sure you won’t need it? I don’t know how long I’ll be.”

“It’s an extra. And it’s yours now.”

He smiled. “I’ll see you later, Syd. Go back inside before you freeze out here.”

“I’m fine,” she said, even as she shivered. “Go.”

He kissed her once more, then turned and crossed to his Jeep. The engine turned over and when he pulled away from the curb, Syd was still on the wide front porch, bundled up in a fleecy bathrobe, looking more than a little worried.

He tried not to think about it as he hit the switch to flip on his emergency lights and didn’t so much as look in his rearview mirror as he navigated deserted streets. At the firehouse, he swung into the parking lot and put everything from his mind as he hurried inside and into his chief’s office, meeting Pratt in the doorway.

“You sure you want me out there?”

Pratt nodded as he skirted him to get to his own turnout. “If you’re up to it and you promise you won’t pull another stunt like that again.”

Frerin held up two fingers. “Scout’s honor, Chief.”

“Then get your ass in gear and get moving.”

He bobbed his head and turned to hurry out to the bay, where Nico let out a whoop. “Look who joined the party! Did we pull you out of bed?”

Holly smiled. “Welcome back, Frerin.”

Frerin grinned as he bent to tug off his boots and then moved to step into his turnout. “It’s good to be back and yes, Nico, you did pull me out of bed. But not mine. Syd’s.”

“I’ll apologize to her when I see her again.” 

“That’ll totally make up for it.” Frerin grabbed his helmet and followed Nico to the truck, climbing up alongside him. “So, did you all miss me?”

“Dude, you were gone for like three days. Not even enough time to notice you weren’t here, never mind miss you.” Nico elbowed him, then his smile faded and a seriousness came to his eyes, one Frerin had never seen before. “I’m glad you’re okay, man. You gave us a scare.”

“Did I thank you for saving my ass?” Frerin replied as they pulled out of the station, lights swirling, sirens blaring. “Because if not, thank you for saving my ass.”

“I’d say make me your best man, but I think that’s going to be T’s job, isn’t it?”

“Yeah, unless Syd and I just run off and do it without telling anyone.”

Nico’s eyes widened. “You serious?”

“I’m dead fucking serious.”

“Damn, son, I never thought I’d see the day when Frerin Durin was seriously considering settling down.” Nico whistled softly. “Going to be a lot of disappointed bunnies out there.”

“I’ll leave ‘em to you,” Frerin told him.

“Leave who to him?” Holly asked, turning in her seat up front.

“Durin’s getting married.”

“What?” 

“I’m not getting married yet, but soon, if everything goes right.”

“Well, that’s awesome, Frer,” she said with a smile. “I hope you have some kind of party to celebrate this.”

“We’ll see.”

“It should be celebrated. It’s a miracle, considering you should be dead.”

For some reason, his spine stiffened at Holly’s words, but before he could say anything, she turned back to say something to Brewer. Then the chill passed and he chided himself for his idiocy. Tori wouldn’t be stupid enough to jump into Holly, would she? And if she was, what if she decided to go after Brewer or Nico?

He didn't want to think about it. He couldn't think about it. He had to trust these guys. He had no other choice. 

Still, he couldn't shake the feeling. At least, not until they rolled up to the twelve story apartment building at the north end of town, where almost all of the construction there was new apartment and condo complexes. The entire building was in flames, and they’d spread to the neighboring buildings as well. Just as had been at the warehouse fire the previous week, trucks from surrounding departments were arriving as well and Frerin tried to shove all of the uncomfortable thoughts from his mind as he jumped down from the truck.

Syd couldn't sleep. From the time Frerin’s Jeep pulled away from the house, her mind simply would not go calm enough for her to get any more rest. The house was cold and dark, and she sat at the kitchen table, staring down at a cup of tea that had gone cold at least an hour earlier. All she could was think about Frerin. 

At five-thirty, Gram padded into the kitchen, frowning as she said, “Syd? What is it? What’s wrong? Why are you up so early?”

“Nothing… I think. I don't know. I just couldn’t sleep.” Syd rubbed her icy hands together. She couldn't get warm, no matter how thick her socks might be or how cozy her fleece robe was. The chill permeated her, almost to the marrow of her bones, it seemed. Even the hot tea hadn’t helped. 

“Is Frerin still asleep?” Gram moved to the stove to put the tea kettle on.

“No. He got recalled by his house. Apparently there was a massive fire at the north end of town.”

“Recalled?” Gram turned toward her, her creased face even more so. “I thought he was suspended for breaking safety protocols?”

“He was, but they needed all the warm bodies they could get, I guess.” 

The first light of daw began filtering into the kitchen and skittered along the wavy length of Gram’s silver-white hair. When she was little, Syd thought her grandmother’s hair was made of snow, because it was so purely white. Now, it reminded her of fairy floss, delicate strands of gossamer that gleamed in that pale sunlight. 

But when Gram turned back toward her and that same light touched her skin, Syd was almost shocked to see her grandmother looked old. Old and tired. Worry. Tragedy. Grief. Stress. They all took their tolls over the years, but recently, time seemed to have caught up with her.

“You’re worried,” Gram said and it wasn't a question. Those sharp blue eyes knew the answer and didn't look for another one.

“I’m terrified, Gram. She’s here somewhere. And she’s not alive, so we can’t kill her off. And I know, I’m not supposed to even consider that, but she tried to kill me. She tried to kill Frerin.”

“I know. And I have an idea what might work to banish her from this plane for good.”

“I do, too, but I’m not sure it would work and I know Frerin would never agree to it.”

The kettle whistled and conversation was paused as Gram fixed them both a cup of tea. As she settled across from Syd, her hand came rest across Syd’s. “What did you have in mind?”

Syd held her gaze for a long moment. “You would be able to tell if she was here, wouldn’t you?”

“I don't know. Has she been here before?”

“Frerin said she claimed she was, when he first came back, so I guess sometime last week or the end of the previous week.” She reached up to rub her forehead. Eleven days. It had only been eleven days since Frerin walked into Miss Fortune’s Crystal. When this was all over, she was making sure she and Frerin lit out for Aruba. She didn't know about him, but she definitely needed a vacation. 

Gram shook her head. “I find that difficult to believe. No one gets into this house if I’ve not given permission.”

“She’s not a vampire, Gram.”

“No, but I know the risks that come with dealing with both sides of the veil and I had a house full of teen girls at one point who had friends who thought nothing of messing with things they didn't fully understand, no matter how you and your sisters tried to warn them.”

Syd smiled as she lifted her mug. Steam curled away from the creamy surface and the heat from the cup permeated the chill bit by bit until she no longer felt it. “So, you cast a spell over us?”

“To a certain degree, yes. It was easier and safer than arguing with stubborn teen girls. So, I don't know why this Tori lied to Frerin, but she definitely lied to him.”

“Gram, do we actually stand a chance of getting rid of her?��

Gram nodded slowly. “We do. It won’t be easy, but it will be permanent. And when it’s over, you and your fireman will have the future you hope to have.”

Syd set down the mug and leaned closer. “So, what do we do and when do we start?”

[ninaxpark]

                  “ Yeah, I know, I know. I look great. “    She says as she approaches the table with refreshments where he was standing. Though their relationship ended badly, she still manages to be civil with her. At least, half the time. Nina figured, it will be one of those times.    “ So, what kind of poison to we have here? “    //   @scottrileys​

[junker-town]

With Mike Houston, it’s possible to feel optimistic about ECU again

The former James Madison head coach inherits low expectations and a core of young talent. ECU might finally have a bright future.

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

It’s easy to forget now, but the Scottie Montgomery era at East Carolina started out well.

In 2016, the AAC was maybe at its most exciting and ambitious. Tom Herman’s Houston had just pummeled Florida State in the Peach Bowl. Matt Rhule was still at Temple, Willie Taggart was still at USF, and Chad Morris was still at SMU. Bob Diaco was coming off of a bowl season at UConn, and Tulsa’s Philip Montgomery hire looked like a resounding success. Memphis had just lost Justin Fuente but replaced him with Mike Norvell. UCF had just hired a former Nebraska QB named Frost.

Within this high-upside environment, ECU had just gone 13-12 in its last two years under Ruffin McNeill. In 2014 the Pirates had enjoyed their first 10-win season since 1991 and finished 40th in S&P+, but they had regressed for two straight years. After a decent start to 2015, they finished the season with four losses in five games and missed the postseason. Proclaiming that “our expectations are to win championships,” athletic director Jeff Compher stunned many by firing the ultra-likable McNeill and bringing in David Cutcliffe’s right-hand man.

ECU did not, in fact, win championships. When you decide your program doesn’t have enough upside, your quest often opens you up to lower downside, too, and the three years post-McNeill have played out in such a stark way that I considered renaming Glen Mason Territory as Ruffin McNeill Territory.

For a few weeks, though, there was a glint. ECU began 2016 with a romp over Western Carolina (Montgomery’s only FCS win in three tries, as it turned out) and a 33-30 victory over NC State. In Week 3, the Pirates out-gained South Carolina by 207 yards and engineered 34 first downs to the Gamecocks’ 13 and lost 20-15 because of bad turnovers luck and missed scoring chances.

First impressions obviously don’t end up mattering in college football, but Montgomery made a good one. And then, unit by unit, basically the entire two-deep succumbed to injury issues.

ECU collapsed, then Montgomery began to desperately seek answers on the transfer market, and ECU collapsed further, especially on defense. In his third year, he solved some of his defensive issues, and his offense fell apart. After nailing the first impression, he basically failed every single one thereafter. After winning his first two games, he lost 26 of his last 33.

In a basic way, you almost can’t blame Compher for seeing everyone else’s big ambitions and deciding he wanted some of his own. It cost him his job, of course — a miserable football program tends to have that effect — so maybe you can blame him, but if nothing else, he set the table for an exciting hire in his absence.

In basically his first hour on the job, new athletic director Jon Gilbert announced Montgomery’s replacement, and it is, on paper, a good one.

Mike Houston is intensely Carolina.

He went to Mars Hill University, near Asheville.

He coached in the North Carolina high school ranks for 12 seasons, then coached at Division 3’s Brevard College and Division 2’s Lenoir-Rhyne, both within NC borders.

He brought Lenoir-Rhyne to the D2 title game in 2013, then got called up to The Citadel (a state below) and had the Bulldogs in the FCS playoffs by year two.

When Everett Withers left James Madison (a state above) for Texas State, Houston replaced him and immediately won the 2016 FCS title. His Dukes won their first 14 games of 2017, too, and came up just four points short of a second title.

Houston’s three years at JMU produced 37 wins, two conference titles, two national title game appearances, and just six losses. With each successive jump to a new level, the 47-year old, who nearly picked Charlotte before ECU called, has somehow gotten more successful at coaching.

Technically that trend could end at any time. But you have to feel good about his chances at ECU. He’s going to have free rein to change the culture however he needs, he inherits a roster full of three-star talent (for all his problems, Montgomery was a pretty successful recruiter), and while he usually makes instantly positive impressions in his new head coaching jobs, the bar for him is pretty low out of the gates as well.

Offense

Houston’s worst offensive season at JMU easily out-classed anything ECU has accomplished in a while. The Dukes averaged just 33.9 points per game in 2018, down from 34.4 in 2017 and 46.0 in 2016; ECU hasn’t topped 30 since Lincoln Riley left for Oklahoma in 2014.

Worse, JMU accomplished all that with an ECU guy leading the way — longtime Pirate assistant Donnie Kirkpatrick became JMU’s OC when Montgomery came to town. He’s back in Greenville now, though.

Kirkpatrick’s got his work cut out for him. After ranking 80th and 77th, respectively, in Off. S&P+ in Montgomery’s first two years, the Pirates collapsed to 119th last fall. But at least you can blame injuries for a lot of that. Quarterback Reid Herring began the season as starter but battled ankle injuries early and concussion issues late. In between, freshman and star recruit Holton Ahlers took over and seemed to figure some things out before first injuring his throwing hand, then his knee.

There were plenty of other injuries, too — only two of five leading receivers played in more than 10 games, and seemingly every lineman on the team started a game at center and right guard — but when your QBs are hobbling and ineffective, that pretty much ends your offense.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Holton Ahlers

Ahlers could end up being one hell of a Montgomery-to-Houston parting gift. A nearly four-star prospect, the 6’3, 236-pound sophomore showed flashes of that high ceiling, albeit in up-and-down, true-freshman fashion.

Ahlers’ full-season numbers were a predictable mixed bag: a 12-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio (excellent!), more than 14 yards per completion (great!), 48 percent completion rate (really bad!). But that completion rate was dragged down by two bad games — he was a ghastly 29-for-89 against Tulane and Cincinnati and completed 59 percent in his other four games of major action.

He threw for 449 yards and three scores against Memphis, then went 22-for-31 with four touchdowns against UConn’s horrid D. He also rushed for 693 non-sack yards (6.6 per carry).

James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Deondre Farrier (1)

When you’re desperate for a program savior and a star quarterback recruit shows early flashes, you can easily dump too many expectations on him too quickly. But Ahlers REALLY DID show flashes, and if he’s able to stay on the field for all or most of 2019, it’s easy to talk yourself into the receiving corps at his disposal, too.

Granted, go-to receiver Trevon Brown is gone. He was targeted three times more than anyone else on the team, but he was a bit on the all-or-nothing side, and ECU threw so damn much in 2018 that six other players were still targeted 30-plus times. Five of them return. That includes a strong possession man in slot receiver Deondre Farrier and another former star recruit in sophomore Leroy Henley. (It also includes a Proehl: Blake, a sophomore and Ricky’s son.)

The run game ... well ... is bad. ECU was 125th in Rushing S&P+, and that was with leading rusher Anthony Scott and three-year starting tackle Garrett McGhin. It probably won’t get worse because it almost can’t, but any improvement whatsoever could do wonders for the passing game. Ahlers was tossed into the pyre as a true freshman and was asked to throw 50 passes a game for an insanely one-dimensional attack.

There are yet more former star recruits at running back, namely sophomore Trace Christian and incoming freshman Demetrius Murray. Plus, thanks to all the shuffling at center and right guard, a total of seven linemen return with at least one game of starting experience, including two sophomores. Just give Ahlers something here.

Defense

After fielding maybe the worst defense in school history in 2017, ECU made some solid strides last fall. The secondary was still a garish mess, but the Pirates were as aggressive as humanly possible in the front six, and it frequently paid off. Granted, when it backfired, it backfired spectacularly — ECU was 125th in rushing marginal explosiveness — but you’ll take that when you’re also ranking 10th in rushing marginal efficiency.

There’s good news, and there’s bad news for new defensive coordinator Bob Trott. We’ll do the bad news first:

Bad news: the main source of havoc in this havoc-hungry front six is gone. End Nate Harvey had a monstrous season, racking up 14.5 sacks (fourth in FBS) and 31.5 run stuffs (second). In his lone season as a defender (he was a backup RB in 2017), he won the AAC’s defensive player of the year award. The NCAA’s Wheel of Random Destiny denied him an extra year of eligibility in typically cruel “he played too many snaps in junior college four years ago” fashion.

Good news: just about everyone else is back.

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Alex Turner (94)

Senior tackles Alex Turner and Jalen Price combined for 15.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, and 19 run stuffs, and ends Kendall Futrell and Chance Purvis combined for 10 and four, respectively. Futrell broke up five passes as well. None of this matches Harvey’s production, obviously, but it’s a good starting point. And at linebacker, havocky (it’s a word, go with it) juniors Aaron Ramseur and Bruce Bivens are back after generating 14 TFLs of their own.

The key to continued success up front could come from the redshirt freshmen. Houston signed wonderfully named three-star JUCO transfer Hozey Haji-Badri, but ends Dorian Hardy and Damir Faison were both mid- to high-three-star prospects in the 2018 class. If one of them turns into an immediate contributor, both the run defense and pass rush could be accounted for.

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Davondre Robinson (13)

The pass defense is in the same boat as the run game: it probably won’t get worse. I mean, it certainly could, but we like to be optimistic around these parts.

Despite a tremendous pass rush, ECU still ranked 107th in Passing S&P+, and that was with nickel back Devon Sutton (10.5 TFLs and four breakups) and corner Corey Seargent (two INTs, eight breakups). Five of eight players who made at least 15 tackles do return, led by safety Davondre Robinson and corner Colby Gore, but the two best play-makers do not.

Special Teams

One ECU unit did manage to improve each year under Montgomery. ECU went from 101st to 48th to 33rd in Special Teams S&P+ over his three seasons, and the primary reason for last year’s excellence, kicker Jake Verity, returns. He went 13-for-13 on field goals under 40 yards and 6-for-8 beyond. Punter John Young’s also back, and while the return game gets a reset, that’s not necessarily a bad thing — the Pirates were 125th in kick return efficiency.

2019 outlook

2019 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug at N.C. State 47 -23.2 9% 7-Sep Gardner-Webb NR 27.5 94% 14-Sep at Navy 118 -0.6 49% 21-Sep William & Mary NR 17.8 85% 28-Sep at Old Dominion 119 0.6 51% 3-Oct Temple 66 -14.1 21% 19-Oct at UCF 27 -28.6 5% 26-Oct USF 71 -12.9 23% 2-Nov Cincinnati 44 -19.0 14% 9-Nov at SMU 85 -14.7 20% 23-Nov at Connecticut 129 7.8 67% 30-Nov Tulsa 95 -5.9 37%

Projected S&P+ Rk 113 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 118 / 104 Projected wins 4.7 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -6.0 (90) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 77 2018 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -14 / -11.2 2018 TO Luck/Game -1.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 60% (65%, 56%) 2018 Second-order wins (difference) 3.8 (-0.8)

It’s good to feel somewhat optimistic about this program again. While I attempted to spin the Montgomery hire as well as I could, any major optimism was limited to a three-week stretch in September 2016.

But Montgomery didn’t leave an empty cupboard for Houston, and Houston has proven that he can make something pretty interesting out of the previous coach’s leftovers. Granted, having Harvey for another year would have been amazing, but it’s still not hard to talk yourself into ECU’s offense improving a lot and its defense at least holding steady.

ECU’s schedule is strangely easy, too: the Pirates play two FCS opponents, plus three FBS teams projected 118th or lower. ECU itself is projected just 113th but has a strong shot at five wins or so, and if the team overachieves, as Houston teams often do, a bowl appearance is on the table.

On paper, ECU nailed this hire. Now Houston just has to go out and prove his AD right.

Team preview stats

All 2019 preview data to date.

[tkrp3-blog]

🎬  FADE IN: THE TERRORVERSE

Settled with authority from the start, ALEX ROMERO (AGE, FC) is one of the people to keep an eye on as people trickle into camp. You know they keep to themselves, but silence cannot be mistaken for unfeeling. Every move is meticulously planned, and even when you know something has gone awry they manage to keep their emotions in check. There’s nothing that can go on in these woods without them catching wind of it, and you don’t want to be on their wrong side when the other shoe finally drops. Even when you think you’ve finally bested them, their icy gaze turns to you and they say-

                                                                           ALEX                                           “I'm not lying. I'm not revealing the whole truth.                                      That's my job, to decide what and when to tell whom.”

🎬  INT. MAIN OFFICE

Without SCOTT STUBBS they would only have half the power they do, the two are allies to the end. DEWEY RILEY makes three as the group discusses the latest goings on at camp, the eyes and ears of the entire operation. They’re a well-oiled unit, a group that truly understands each other. If only they noticed GUSTAVO ACOSTA trying to chime in, then maybe the puzzle pieces they usually miss would fall into place.

MORE INFORMATION ON ALEX ROMERO CAN BE FOUND HERE.

[orthostatsblog]

Assignment 1

I have decided that I will use my own dataset from my own research in functional clinical outcomes after knee surgery. I am particularly interested in preoperative factors associated with depression or anxiety. I am not sure which variables I will use, so for now I will include all of the relevant variables in my personal codebook.

Research question: what is the relationship between a self-reported diagnosis of depression or anxiety and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) domains?

Hypothesis: Patients with depression or anxiety would have worse preoperative pain, function, and general health status.

Literature review: 

The Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) domains have been created by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to provide an assessment of patient-reported outcomes that is cost effective, time effective, and generalizable over a wide variety of clinical patients. However, the data collected through PROMIS in orthopedic patients is currently limited to foot, ankle, upper extremity, and spine injuries, with a lack of data regarding the use of PROMIS for patients undergoing knee surgery.

Collected data includes patient-reported demographics, treatment expectations, 6 PROMIS domains (Physical Function, Pain Interference, Fatigue, Social Satisfaction, Anxiety, Depression), Tegner Activity Scale, Marx Knee Activity Rating Scale (ARS), Visual Analog Scale (VAS) for pain, International Physical Activity ratings (IPAQ), International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) Subjective Knee Evaluation form, as well as information extracted from medical record. 

References

1. Maradit Kremers H, Larson DR, Crowson CS, et al. Prevalence of Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United States. J Bone Joint Surg Am 2015;97:1386-97. 2. Arias E, Rostron BL, Tejada-Vera B. United States life tables, 2005. Natl Vital Stat Rep 2010;58:1-132. 3. Ding C, Cicuttini F, Scott F, Cooley H, Jones G. Association between age and knee structural change: a cross sectional MRI based study. Ann Rheum Dis 2005;64:549-55. 4. Salzler MJ, Lin A, Miller CD, Herold S, Irrgang JJ, Harner CD. Complications after arthroscopic knee surgery. Am J Sports Med 2014;42:292-6. 5. Britteon P, Cullum N, Sutton M. Association between psychological health and wound complications after surgery. Br J Surg 2017;104:769-76. 6. Santaguida PL, Hawker GA, Hudak PL, et al. Patient characteristics affecting the prognosis of total hip and knee joint arthroplasty: a systematic review. Can J Surg 2008;51:428-36. 7. Belmont PJ, Jr., Goodman GP, Waterman BR, Bader JO, Schoenfeld AJ. Thirty-day postoperative complications and mortality following total knee arthroplasty: incidence and risk factors among a national sample of 15,321 patients. J Bone Joint Surg Am 2014;96:20-6. 8. Alattas SA, Smith T, Bhatti M, Wilson-Nunn D, Donell S. Greater pre-operative anxiety, pain and poorer function predict a worse outcome of a total knee arthroplasty. Knee Surg Sports Traumatol Arthrosc 2016. 9. Ali A, Lindstrand A, Sundberg M, Flivik G. Preoperative Anxiety and Depression Correlate With Dissatisfaction After Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Prospective Longitudinal Cohort Study of 186 Patients, With 4-Year Follow-Up. J Arthroplasty 2017;32:767-70. 10. Browne JA, Sandberg BF, D'Apuzzo MR, Novicoff WM. Depression is associated with early postoperative outcomes following total joint arthroplasty: a nationwide database study. J Arthroplasty 2014;29:481-3. 11. Cho CH, Seo HJ, Bae KC, Lee KJ, Hwang I, Warner JJ. The impact of depression and anxiety on self-assessed pain, disability, and quality of life in patients scheduled for rotator cuff repair. J Shoulder Elbow Surg 2013;22:1160-6. 12. Duivenvoorden T, Vissers MM, Verhaar JA, et al. Anxiety and depressive symptoms before and after total hip and knee arthroplasty: a prospective multicentre study. Osteoarthritis Cartilage 2013;21:1834-40. 13. Mollon B, Mahure SA, Ding DY, Zuckerman JD, Kwon YW. The influence of a history of clinical depression on peri-operative outcomes in elective total shoulder arthroplasty: a ten-year national analysis. Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:818-24. 14. Stundner O, Kirksey M, Chiu YL, et al. Demographics and perioperative outcome in patients with depression and anxiety undergoing total joint arthroplasty: a population-based study. Psychosomatics 2013;54:149-57. 15. Werner BC, Wong AC, Chang B, et al. Depression and Patient-Reported Outcomes Following Total Shoulder Arthroplasty. J Bone Joint Surg Am 2017;99:688-95. 16. Wu HH, Liu M, Dines JS, Kelly JD, Garcia GH. Depression and psychiatric disease associated with outcomes after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. World J Orthop 2016;7:709-17. 17. Kessler RC, Petukhova M, Sampson NA, Zaslavsky AM, Wittchen HU. Twelve-month and lifetime prevalence and lifetime morbid risk of anxiety and mood disorders in the United States. Int J Methods Psychiatr Res 2012;21:169-84. 18. Driban JB, Morgan N, Price LL, Cook KF, Wang C. Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) instruments among individuals with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional study of floor/ceiling effects and construct validity. BMC Musculoskelet Disord 2015;16:253. 19. Cella D, Yount S, Rothrock N, et al. The Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS): progress of an NIH Roadmap cooperative group during its first two years. Med Care 2007;45:S3-S11. 20. Cella D, Riley W, Stone A, et al. The Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) developed and tested its first wave of adult self-reported health outcome item banks: 2005-2008. J Clin Epidemiol 2010;63:1179-94. 21. Beckmann JT, Hung M, Voss MW, Crum AB, Bounsanga J, Tyser AR. Evaluation of the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Upper Extremity Computer Adaptive Test. J Hand Surg Am 2016;41:739-44 e4. 22. Brodke DJ, Saltzman CL, Brodke DS. PROMIS for Orthopaedic Outcomes Measurement. J Am Acad Orthop Surg 2016;24:744-9. 23. Ho B, Houck JR, Flemister AS, et al. Preoperative PROMIS Scores Predict Postoperative Success in Foot and Ankle Patients. Foot Ankle Int 2016;37:911-8. 24. Riddle DL, Wade JB, Jiranek WA. Major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, and panic disorder in patients scheduled for knee arthroplasty. J Arthroplasty 2010;25:581-8. 25. Wood TJ, Thornley P, Petruccelli D, Kabali C, Winemaker M, de Beer J. Preoperative Predictors of Pain Catastrophizing, Anxiety, and Depression in Patients Undergoing Total Joint Arthroplasty. J Arthroplasty 2016;31:2750-6. 26. Stordal E, Mykletun A, Dahl AA. The association between age and depression in the general population: a multivariate examination. Acta Psychiatr Scand 2003;107:132-41.