#including the (possible end of?) saudi/israel normalizations

[heritageposts]

What ‘From the River to the Sea’ Really Means & Why Israel Can’t Win, w/ Vijay Prashad

[zvaigzdelasas]

Top White House official Brett McGurk is quietly floating a controversial plan to reconstruct Gaza after Israel’s assault concludes, HuffPost has learned, despite serious concerns from some officials inside the administration that it would sow the seeds for future instability in the region.

In recent weeks, McGurk has been pitching national security officials on a plan suggesting an approximately 90-day timeline for what should happen once active fighting in Gaza ends, three U.S. officials said. It argues that stability can be achieved in the devastated Palestinian region if American, Israeli, Palestinian and Saudi officials launch an urgent diplomatic effort that prioritizes the establishment of Israel-Saudi ties, the officials continued. Such a development is widely referred to as “normalization,” given Saudi Arabia’s refusal to recognize Israel since its founding in 1948.

There is a widespread belief that similar U.S.-led deals that involved Israel and other regional Arab governments — and that downplayed Palestinian concerns — have fueled anger and violence, including the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and other Palestinian militants inside Israel.

Still, U.S. President Joe Biden has echoed his predecessor Donald Trump in arguing that those agreements are vital for the region’s future. Biden’s focus on an Israel-Saudi pact has been especially alarming for Palestinians and officials working on Israeli-Palestinian peace. And McGurk’s accelerated timeline has only caused more concern.

McGurk’s plan would use the incentive of aid for reconstruction from Saudi Arabia and possibly other wealthy Gulf countries like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to pressure both the Palestinians and the Israelis, per the officials. In this vision, Palestinian leaders would agree to a new government for both Gaza and the occupied West Bank and to ratchet down their criticisms of Israel, while Israel would accept limited influence in Gaza.[...]

A recently conducted poll of Saudis by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy found that nearly 96% believe Arab states should cut any ties with Israel over its conduct in Gaza, and Saudi Arabia has long maintained that it will not establish ties with Israel unless the Israelis permit the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Meanwhile, a host of other forces in the region would rage against an agreement perceived as sidelining Palestinians. That group includes the Houthis[...] “These plans are delusionally optimistic and have numerous spoilers and parties that will be unlikely to cooperate or do what the U.S. plans,” one U.S. official said, pointing to the Houthis but also Palestinians and Israelis[...]

Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week told Israeli counterparts that he expects them to do more to achieve a Saudi-Israel pact than they would have had to do prior to their campaign in Gaza, The Times of Israel reported.[...]

McGurk previously worked on Middle East issues under Trump, who promoted his set of agreements between Arab states and Israel — the so-called Abraham Accords — as one of his biggest triumphs.[...]

In his first public remarks after the Oct. 7 attack, McGurk claimed that he never sidelined Palestinian concerns in pursuing an Israel-Saudi agreement.[...]

“There’s a lot of deja vu in what we’re hearing about the allegedly new thinking,” said Khaled Elgindy, an analyst at the Middle East Institute think tank and former adviser to the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah. “I have a hard time believing that the administration that misread the region for three years before Oct. 7 and certainly deprioritized the Palestinians … can understand Palestinian aspirations.”

“Even if they did understand what was required, would any Palestinian leader be willing to trust them after they have facilitated the annihilation of Gaza?” Elgindy added.[...]

Blinken raised the idea of a new Palestinian Authority cabinet with Abbas this week and the Palestinian leader’s response was “poor,” a U.S. official told HuffPost. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller disputed that presentation in an email to HuffPost, writing, “This account is false in every respect.”[...]

Lawmakers have repeatedly said their interest in helping Israel make friends in its neighborhood does not outweigh their concerns about what the U.S. would need to commit to in diplomacy for a Saudi-Israel pact — likely a binding American defense treaty with Saudi Arabia and U.S. assistance with a Saudi nuclear program, among other enticements. Congress would have to approve a treaty and could also scrutinize or bar other U.S.-Saudi deals.

12 Jan 24

[stele3]

So let's just look at something, shall we?

At the end of last month, Saudi Arabia announced that it was getting closer to normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. The deal, which has been pushed for by the US, would have involved major concessions to the Palestinians, including the possibility of creating a separate Palestinian state. This would have reshaped the entire region and potentially moved it closer to a lasting peace.

The Israeli tourism minister visited Riyadh, becoming the first Israeli official to publicly visit Saudi Arabia; simultaneously, Saudi Arabia sent a delegation to Palestine to meet with President Mahmoud Abbas, leader of Fatah. Fatah is the leftist, socialist democratic party of Palestine and the main rival to Hamas, which is a terrorist organization with backing from Iran.

Then, barely a week after these historic visit: Hamas launches 3000 rockets from the Gaza Strip, and sends militants to massacre 1500 Israelis and kidnap 200 more, some of whom have already been found dead, including a 12-year-old autistic girl named Noya.

Israel responds with a brutal, inhumane barrage of rockets, and threatens to carry out a ground invasion of Gaza, which will almost certainly result in the further mass death of civilians. They have cut off aid.

A hospital blows up. We don't know who is responsible. No, we don't. No. We fucking don't. It might have been Israel; it might have been Islamic State, who is allied with Hamas and ISIS.

Israel is immediately blamed for the hospital and the entire Muslim world rises up in fury. Whatever hope of rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and lasting peace is dead, at least temporarily.

This timing was not a coincidence. It was specifically aimed at destroying the Saudi Arabia deal and securing the potential of a separate Palestinian state; it was aimed at preventing Fatah from gaining power and influence, and moving the area towards peace rather than armed terrorism.

Hamas did this in order to hurt Israel, yes, but also to hurt Palestine. They knew what response would be incited, and wanted to destroy the chance for peaceful civilian rule because that would mean them losing power. They are not the good guys. They either do not care about the people of Gaza or they have been so thoroughly lied to that they actually thought mowing down civilians at a music festival would further their goals.

[phoenixyfriend]

Hello! I was stalking your blog and saw your tags re: you cannot see an end to the occupation without causing large scale anti-semetism. So i wanted to send you this link. Additionally, i dont think opposing the israelis are in and of itself an act of anti-semetism as they're not being opposed bc of their religion but the fact that they, almost entirely as a nation save a meager handful, are disconcertingly hateful and murderous towards arabs and Palestinians. It is fact that they've created an ethnostate and use their religion as a shield to justify their wrongs.

I wrote this on the train to work so it's not as clean as it could be. Bear with me.

I think we're talking about two different issues. Your concern is the fault and the philosophy of the existence of Israel. My topic in those tags was the logistical follow-through and possible anticipated consequences.

Whether or not Israel should have tied their state to the Jewish religion is a different question. The fact of the matter is that they HAVE, and that many people see them as equivalent to each other.

For the purposes of this post, I am going to work on the premise that Israel must be dismantled. I have mixed feelings on the topic (see the below considerations), but for the rest of the post, let's assume it IS happening and we're just discussing how.

If the government at fault is violently and militarily opposed to being dismantled, then the dismantling has to come from outside, by foreign powers.

The nearest neighbors are differing levels of friendly, with some being of almost normalized relations, like Egypt or Saudi Arabia, but also include Yemen (admittedly not THAT close) and Lebanon, which have the Houthis and Hezbollah, and the former has "a curse upon the Jews" in their slogan.

"Allah is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam"

So whatever your personal take on the philosophy of Israel's existence, propaganda, and choice to define itself by Judaism is, the fact that there are multiple countries in the region that are run by or at least sympathetic to groups of this opinion cannot be discounted when talking abut things like disarmament.

There is only one Jew in Yemen, a guy imprisoned for trying to smuggle out a Torah.

Syria and Lebanon, which are much closer to Israel physically, have less than 100 between them. It is vanishingly unlikely that the once-thriving communities chose to leave en masse. Many were probably enticed by the supposed safety and freedom of Israel, yes, but a near total exodus? Unlikely without domestic discrimination against Jews.

So that is what I am thinking of when I talk about nearby antisemitism.

Forcibly de-arming Israel leaves them open to the antisemitism of their neighbors UNLESS an outside power is there to manage the transition, and people who dislike Israel are generally vocally opposed to that kind of international interference.

Unfortunately, it currently looks like the only way to dismantle Israel's institution of violence is either an international oversight of the kind enforced on post-war Germany as it transitioned to a more peaceful nation, or to try to do it naturally and slowly like in South Africa.

But South Africa still has extreme economic inequality between the races. Speaking as an American, it's been 160 years since slavery ended and black people are STILL suffering here, so a slow and natural process where the Israeli government is "convinced" to stop being discriminatory seems unlikely. There are anti-apartheid activists in Israel! There are plenty of pro-Palestine Jewish organizations in other countries! But they are not enough to take apart Israel in a peaceful and stable manner with a speed that would help Palestinians recovery in any reasonable timeframe.

Which brings us back to either violent overthrow or foreign interference by UN forces, meaning yet more western military posts in the middle east, because a disarmed Israel is one that is open to the vocally antisemitic and anti-Israel groups just across their North/East borders.

I guess MAYBE Saudi Arabia could be the oversight force, but I don't think an absolute monarchy is the best choice for overseeing the complete restructuring of a democratic state.

As for the link you sent... 75% of Israelis were born in Israel. Half of the population is either Mizrahi Jews escaping persecution from nearby states (again: Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon could not have gotten their Jewish populations that low without systemic discrimination) that were happy to see them go, or their descendants. The rest are mostly jews who escaped antisemitism in Europe or their descendants. (Also, Ethiopian jews, but given that Israel discriminates against THEM, they're a bit too complicated to discuss in this already complicated post.)

And of course there's the Jews who were already living there... and the question of those who were kicked out centuries or even millenia ago by Romans or the Islamic caliphates or the Ottoman empire or what have you.

(I'll note here that I have a large bias against Ottoman Empire things and am trying to be conscious of that.)

None of this JUSTIFIES their actions. But the whole Settlers thing, at least for the main body of Israel, is really complicated by the fact that Israel's history, and the fact that the Jewish people HAVE been there in some capacity for thousands of years, is complicated. He mentions the decolonization of Algeria and French people leaving but... French people had France. They could go back to France.

Israel is the homeland. The whole reason Jewish people wanted it was because their thousands of years of history were there. Their holiest site (temple mount) was there. They'd just been driven from it over and over again.

It does not, by any means, justify their actions against Palestine. It DOES, however, mean that the whole "jews should have stayed where they were instead of coming here" argument is... flawed. They should NOT have taken that land, no, should NOT have kicked out Palestinians, but at that point we also get into whatever the hell Britain was doing.

West Bank settlers are a different issue. That should not be happening. That is in fact colonization. Go back to your own side of the border. Etc.

My thoughts on the situating keep changing as I learn, but I'm really hesitant to get on board with any particularly black-and-white generalizations.

[the-garbanzo-annex-jr]

Vivek Ramaswamy, a long-shot contender for the Republican presidential nomination, said in an interview that the United States should reduce its aid to Israel.

In an interview on Rumble, a platform popular with far-right viewers, Ramaswamy said Israel should not get more aid than its Middle Eastern neighbors after 2028, the year that the current U.S. aid package of $38 billion expires.

He said that he would expand the Abraham Accords, the normalization deals between Israel and Arab countries. After Israel is “more integrated” with its neighboring countries, Ramaswamy said, Israel should be able to stand “on its own two feet” financially.

“Come 2028, that additional aid won’t be necessary in order to still have the kind of stability that we’d actually have in the Middle East by having Israel more integrated in with its partners,” he said.

The policy point separates Ramaswamy from his two main rivals vying for the nomination — Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, who are staunch supporters of Israel and its military. But it puts him line with a growing number of voices from across the ideological spectrum who say Israel should no longer get as much from the United States as it has.

Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old biotech entrepreneur and investor, appeared on comedian-turned-podcaster Russell Brand’s video show on Rumble. The comments on aid to Israel were a response to a viewer question.

He argued that Israel should not receive preferential treatment from the United States, even though “our relationship with Israel has advanced American interests” over time. “There’s no North Star commitment to any one country, other than the United States of America,” Ramaswamy said.

Ramaswamy’s popularity is on the rise and he is now close behind DeSantis in national polls. A Fox News survey published Wednesday found 11% of respondents support him, compared to 16% for DeSantis and 53% for Trump.

Ramaswamy mentioned Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Indonesia as countries he would target as Abraham Accords partners; while Saudi Arabia is deep in negotiations with Israel and the United States about a possible Israel treaty, Oman recently criminalized relations of any kind with Israel. Indonesia is also noted for its high levels of antisemitism — FIFA, the world soccer body, this year moved its under-20 World Cup from Indonesia to Argentina after the Southeast Asian nation protested Israel’s inclusion in the event.

U.S. aid to Israel has become more of a campaign issue over the past two presidential contests. In the lead-up to the 2020 election, prominent Democrats such as Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez brought up the idea of conditioning at least some aid over Israel’s policies, particularly those involving the Palestinians.

In May, Rep. Betsy McCollum, a longtime critic of Israel policy, re-introduced a bill that would condition U.S. aid to Israel. Sixteen progressive House representatives co-sponsored the bill, including other prominent Israel critics such as Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Pramila Jayapal.

More recently, centrists and people on the right have joined in openly considering reducing aid to Israel, though for different reasons. Last month, New York Times columnist Nick Kristof floated ending aid to Israel entirely.

Ramaswamy — who had before his campaign been a leading defender of Donald Trump in his ongoing indictment crises — has also indicated he would pull back funding and military support for other allies, including Ukraine and Taiwan.

He told Jewish Insider in June that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had allowed Jews and other minorities to be mistreated during the country’s war with Russia. Zelensky himself is Jewish.

[mariacallous]

When the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations was announced on March 10, many U.S. officials and commentators welcomed it. Even though the Chinese-sponsored deal was an apparent blow to the United States’ status in the Middle East, experts speculated that normalization between the Saudis in Riyadh and the Iranians in Tehran would lead to regional de-escalation.

The well-respected Economist Intelligence Unit best summed up this view, declaring, “Greater dialogue and co-operation between Saudi Arabia and Iran rather than antagonism and active support for rival factions would remove an important destabilising dynamic from the region’s conflict zones”—though the unnamed authors acknowledged that violence remained possible. Others suggested that the agreement could provide a range of benefits beyond the conflict zones, including an end to Iran’s meddling in Bahrain, renewed Saudi investment in Iran, and even improved chances for nuclear nonproliferation.

Greater dialogue and cooperation between the Saudis and Iranians is positive, of course. Yet despite the planned exchange of ambassadors and an invitation from Saudi King Salman to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to visit Saudi Arabia, de-escalation has not happened. A tour around the region, from Syria to Israel’s borders to the Strait of Hormuz, indicates the opposite. It is early, of course. The Beijing-brokered agreement is only three months old. But so far, it looks like the Iranians are leveraging normalization to press their regional advantage rather than diminish tensions.

The greatest promise of the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization is peace in Yemen. The Saudis want to end their military intervention there and have sought help from Tehran, which has become a patron of Riyadh’s antagonists, the Houthis. But so far, normalization has not had a dramatic impact on the situation on the ground.

There is a cease-fire, ships can offload aid and goods at ports that were previously blocked, and the airport in the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, is open. That is all good news, but these developments predate the Saudi-Iranian-Chinese agreement. There are peace talks, but an end to the conflict in Yemen remains elusive largely because the Houthis have been intransigent. Perhaps that will change, and perhaps it will be the result of the new dialogue between the Saudi and Iranian governments, but so far it is hard to argue that Yemen’s trajectory has improved markedly as a result of the agreement.

The situation elsewhere in the Middle East hardly seems better. Just three weeks after the Saudis and Iranians came to terms, Iranian proxies attacked U.S. forces in Syria, killing a U.S. contractor and injuring several U.S. soldiers. Iran’s agents routinely target the roughly 900 U.S. troops (and an undisclosed number of U.S. contractors) in Syria, but the resumption of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran was supposed to have salutary effects on tensions across the Middle East.

One can debate why the United States is in Syria, but if Tehran were interested in regional de-escalation, its allies would likely hold their fire. Instead, Iran remains committed to pushing the United States out of the Middle East; and clearly, it wants to put Americans under fire to accomplish that goal.

Not long after U.S. soldiers fended off drone strikes in Syria, Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, held a meeting with leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Beirut. The result was coordinated rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza Strip. About a month later, in Syria’s capital, Damascus, Raisi met with Palestinian militant group leaders who reportedly expressed gratitude for Tehran’s support.

Iran’s goal seems to be an escalation of its shadow war with Israel. So far, the Israelis have had the clear advantage, routinely hitting Iranian and Iranian-aligned groups in Syria and Iraq. Until now, Iran has been unable to respond effectively on the battlefield; but Qaani evidently believes that if he can unite Iran’s proxies, he can reverse Iran’s fortunes. It may not work out that way for the Quds Force commander, however. The Israelis killed several PIJ commanders in fighting in early May as Hamas watched from the sidelines. There is no indication that this setback has caused Qaani to rethink his effort to escalate the conflict with Israel, though.

Then there are the waters of the Persian Gulf. In May, the Pentagon announced it was bolstering its “defensive posture” in the area. Why? Because the Iranians were, once again, threatening the sea lanes. After Qaani’s Beirut confab, the United States picked up information that Tehran was planning to attack commercial vessels in Middle Eastern waters.

In the span of just a week in late April and early May, Iranian forces seized two oil tankers; according to U.S. officials, Iran has harassed, attacked, or interfered with 15 internationally flagged commercial ships over the past two years. Tehran seems to be responding to U.S. sanctions enforcement, calculating that shipping—any shipping—in the Gulf is fair game. One of the tankers it took was steaming between Emirati ports in Dubai and Fujairah, even as the United Arab Emirates has normalized ties with Iran. That does not seem like de-escalation, does it?

The big story about the Iran-Saudi-China deal is not the development of a more stable, pacific Middle East in which regional actors take matters into their own hands to forge a better future. It is actually more straightforward than that: The Saudis lost, and normalization of diplomatic relations with Iran is just cover for that setback.

In a variety of ways, the Saudis seem ascendant: essentially buying the U.S. PGA Tour; pursuing policies independent of their patron, the United States; and investing everywhere from Beijing to the San Francisco Bay Area. But in the Middle East—specifically Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—the Saudis has been unable to dislodge the Iranians, who have either reinforced or extended their influence in all four countries in recent years. Perhaps the most dramatic manifestation of this was Saudi Arabia’s willingness to bring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—who owes his continued rule in part to Iran—back into the Arab League’s good graces.

The Saudis may be masters of international golfing, but the Iranians have won where it counts. Now, having taken Riyadh off the table, Tehran is working to undermine what is left of the region’s anti-Iran regional coalition—a policy that includes going on the offensive against Israel and the United States.

For too long, bad assumptions have formed the basis of U.S. Middle East policy, including the notion that Iran’s leaders want to normalize ties with their neighbors. In reality, Iran does not want to share the region and is not a status quo power. The regime’s goal is to reorder the region in a way that favors Tehran, and with the Saudis now promising an ambassador and investment, the Iranians have determined they are now freer to advance their agenda. In other words, no de-escalation.

[novumtimes]

Israel and Hamas Could Restart Cease-Fire Talks Within a Week Officials Say

Diplomats are aiming to restart negotiations for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas at some point in the next week, according to three officials briefed on the process, rekindling hopes of an end to the fighting in Gaza even as Israel presses ahead with its campaign there. According to the officials, preliminary discussions were held this weekend in Paris between David Barnea, the director of Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, the Mossad; William J. Burns, the director of the C.I.A.; and the Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, one of the lead mediators between Israel and Hamas. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. For months, Qatar, the United States and Egypt have been trying to cajole Israel and Hamas into accepting a truce and an exchange of captives that could help bring the seven-month war to a close. But previous talks have repeatedly broken down over the length and nature of the truce: Hamas wants a permanent cease-fire, allowing it to remain in charge of Gaza, while Israel wants to be able to continue fighting after a pause — so that it can wrest Hamas from power. The other major point of contention in the last round centered on how to transition between different phases of a three-phase deal. Previous sticking points have included the extent to which Israeli troops should withdraw from Gaza during any truce, and whether Israel will allow Gazans to move freely between north and south Gaza. The sides have also disagreed about the number of hostages that should be released by Hamas, as well as the number of Palestinian prisoners that should be freed in exchange by Israel. In the last round, negotiators talked about Hamas possibly releasing 33 hostages, mainly women, the elderly and anyone in need of urgent medical care. More than 120 hostages remain in Gaza, and roughly a quarter of them are dead, according to the latest Israeli assessment. During the talks, Egyptian and Qatari officials have dealt directly with Hamas’s envoys, who do not meet in person with Israeli or American counterparts. Egypt took the lead in the last round of negotiations, which were held in Cairo, though Qatari officials were also present. Diplomats say that the hostage negotiations need to be completed in order to make headway in other related diplomatic initiatives. Those endeavors include a regional debate about who should govern a postwar Gaza; talks over a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia; and negotiations for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that is fighting the Israeli military along the Israel-Lebanon border. Rawan Sheikh Ahmad contributed reporting from Haifa, Israel, and Julian E. Barnes contributed from Washington. Source link via The Novum Times

[arpov-blog-blog]

Just weeks before Hamas launched its 7 October surprise attacks on southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostage, the US had been trying to broker a historic deal to normalize relations between longtime adversaries Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Biden administration, gunning for a major foreign policy achievement before the 2024 presidential elections, had hoped to strike an agreement in which Saudi Arabia would establish formal relations with the Jewish state in return for a defense pact with the US. Saudi Arabia was also seeking Washington’s aid in developing a civilian nuclear program and progress toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Talks were shelved by Riyadh in October over Israel’s war in Gaza, which has so far killed more than 27,000 Palestinians. They have since resumed but Saudi Arabia now insists Israel must first end the war in Gaza and put Palestinians on a path toward statehood.

The US, UK and Israel, unlike nearly 140 other UN member states, have not formally recognized Palestine. The US has long stressed that Palestinian statehood should be achieved through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which oversees parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, while Hamas controls Gaza. Earlier this month, however, the state department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, told reporters that the US was “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state” after the war in Gaza.

His remarks came amid reports that the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has asked the state department to conduct a review and present policy options on possible future recognition of a Palestinian state.

But Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said he doubted the US would actually invest a lot of manpower or resources in that goal on its own. “They’re more interested in stabilizing and rebuilding Gaza but also Saudi-Israel normalization,” he said. “That’s the big prize that they’re chasing. For them to achieve that, they have to look more serious about a Palestinian state.”

What are the main obstacles?

Netanyahu has dismissed US calls for a path to a Palestinian state, insisting that he would not “compromise on full Israeli security control over all territory west of the Jordan River”. The Israeli prime minster, who has boasted that he was instrumental in preventing Palestinian statehood, is trying to cling to power and elude the threat of prison by appeasing the far-right members of his coalition government.

Biden continued to maintain that the creation of an independent state for Palestinians was still possible, claiming that Netanyahu was not opposed to all forms of a two-state solution.

Other countries are vital to a two-state process

The US is certain to lead any fresh negotiations. Saudi Arabia has told the US that it would not open diplomatic relations with Israel unless it recognizes an independent Palestinian state on 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem, which Israel has unilaterally annexed, as its capital. Israel’s coalition government includes far-right parties who are adamantly opposed to a Palestinian state, and Netanyahu himself blocked progress on the issue for many years.

What hope is there?

Aaron David Miller, who served six US secretaries of state as an adviser on Arab-Israeli peace talks, believes the chances of the US unilaterally recognizing the state of Palestine are slim to none, but that talks on establishing Palestinian statehood form part of a “grand bargain” with Saudi Arabia.

A Saudi-Israeli normalization deal faces many obstacles, Miller says, but “it’s a serious proposal from the administration, and they’ve actively working on it.” He noted, though, how unlikely Israel was to agree to what Blinken on Tuesday called for: a “time-bound, irreversible” path to a Palestinian state.

[hoursofreading]

Cease-fires can make it possible to pursue negotiations aimed at achieving a lasting peace, but only when the timing and balance of forces are right. Bosnia in the 1990s saw 34 failed cease-fires before the Clinton administration’s military intervention prompted all sides to stop fighting and finally negotiate a peace agreement. It is possible that if Israel dismantles Hamas’s infrastructure and military capacity and demonstrates that terrorism is a dead end, a new peace process could begin in the Middle East. But a cease-fire that leaves Hamas in power and eager to strike Israel will make this harder, if not impossible. For decades, Hamas has undermined every serious attempt at peace by launching new attacks, including the October 7 massacre that seems to have been designed, at least in part, to disrupt progress toward normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. (Those negotiations also aimed to bring important benefits for Palestinians.) By contrast, the humanitarian pauses advocated by the Biden administration and tentatively accepted by the Israelis can save lives without rewarding Hamas. There is precedent: During previous wars in Gaza, Israel and Hamas agreed to a number of pauses so that relief could get into the area. Recent conflicts in Yemen and Sudan have also undergone brief humanitarian pauses. Whether for hours or days, breaks in the fighting can provide safety to aid workers and refugees. They could also help facilitate hostage negotiations, which is an urgent priority right now.

Hamas Must Go

[summarychannel]

The Egyptian army is preparing for a possible strike on the Egyptian borders in preparation for the entry of the people of Gaza into Sinai, and Israel is begging for a truce.

Updates on the Al-Aqsa Flood operation presented in this episode of Samri Channel. The beginning of the important tour that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is currently making to the Middle East. Al-Abyad said in a statement that Sullivan met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Kingdom to discuss a mechanism to achieve lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians. They also discussed the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the efforts that must meet the relief needs there, including ways to increase... The flow of necessary aid to the besieged sector.

 Among the files that worry the United States and were discussed with the Saudi Crown Prince are the Yemeni Houthi group’s attacks on commercial ships passing in the Red Sea, and its control of Bab al-Mandab, which puts the security of global trade at risk and threatens the safety of ship crews. According to the White House statement, Sullivan and Prince Mohammed bin Salman also discussed enhancing bilateral cooperation in the fields of security, trade, space exploration, and advanced technologies, including open wireless communications networks.

American negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia were halted after the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in October, but all parties said they wanted to continue reviving efforts when the time was right. Sullivan will arrive in Israel on Thursday, December 14, to hold discussions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the Israeli Military Ministerial Council, about the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. According to John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, Sullivan will discuss with the Israelis the need to be more precise and specific in their attacks on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip. This means that the United States, a permanent ally of Israel, and its National Security Advisor will not address the UN calls for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire” in Gaza, but rather will discuss a military strategy to continue the bombing of the Strip. US President Joe Biden had warned that Israel was losing support due to its “indiscriminate” bombing of Gaza and that Netanyahu should change his government, revealing a new rift in relations with the Israeli Prime Minister.

In another context, informed Egyptian sources told Sky News Arabia that Israel requested mediation from Cairo and Doha to conclude a prisoner and detainee exchange deal as part of a new humanitarian truce in Gaza. Hopes for a truce have become the subject of discussion in Palestinian and Israeli circles, but they have not yet matured, and therefore its features have not been clear. The sources explained that the Egyptian side has already engaged in new mediation with the Qatari and American sides to implement a new prisoner exchange deal soon between Hamas and Israel. The sources pointed to expected meetings between Israel, Egypt and Qatar, under American sponsorship, soon in this context. A humanitarian truce between Hamas and Israel that lasted for a week and ended on December 1 witnessed the release of 105 hostages from Gaza, including 80 Israelis, in exchange for Israel releasing 240 Palestinian prisoners. But efforts to extend the truce have faltered, and Israel says at least 137 detainees are believed to still be held by Hamas.

#Egypt #Palestine #Gaza

[themarketinsights]

Online Dating Services Market May See a Big Move | ZheNai, JiaYuan, PlentyofFish, Match, NetEase

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Major players profiled in the study are:

Match (United States), PlentyofFish (Canada), OkCupid (United States), Zoosk (United States), eHarmony (United States), JiaYuan (China), BaiHe (China), ZheNai (China), YouYuan (United States), NetEase (China), Tinder (United States)

Get Free Exclusive PDF Sample Copy of This Research @ https://www.advancemarketanalytics.com/sample-report/7127-global-online-dating-services-market?utm_source=OpenPR&utm_medium=Vinay

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Online dating is an online web service which enables people to find their connections and introduce themselves to the new person over the Internet. The connections normally build their personal, romantic, or sexual relationships with each other. The users can become members by creating a profile and uploading personal information which includes age, gender, sexual orientation, location, and appearance. The market of the online dating services is increasing due to increasing preferences of searching partners through online portal

Match Group continues to swallow up the online dating market

The company is also embroiled in litigation with dating app, Bumble, which alleges Match Group launched a lawsuit against it in part to help drive down the price of a possible acquisition a claim Match Group disputes

U.S. government regulation of dating services began with the International Marriage Broker Regulation Act (IMBRA)[58] which took effect in March 2007 after a federal judge in Georgia upheld a challenge from the dating site European Connections

Match group has acquired Hinge in 2018 which is an anti tinder dating app

The Meet Group acquires German dating app giant LOVOO for $70 million in cash

Tinder's parent company is buying an anti tinder dating app

The Global Online Dating Services Market segments and Market Data Break Down are illuminated below:

by Type (Marriage, Socializing, Casual Relationship), Application (Ordinary, LGBT), Device (Mobile, Desktop), Revenue (Advertising, Subscription), End User (Male, Female, Transgender)

Market Opportunities:

Higher divorce rate indicates that more consumers are becoming single, speeding up the use of online dating service

Low operating cost

Market Drivers:

Low hassle in order to find a partner

A larger group of consumers are connected to the internet via their mobile

Market Trend:

Increasing number of users subscribing

Consumers are increasingly opting to postpone marriage to develop their careers and casually date more frequently

What can be explored with the Online Dating Services Market Study?

Gain Market Understanding

Identify Growth Opportunities

Analyze and Measure the Global Online Dating Services Market by Identifying Investment across various Industry Verticals

Understand the Trends that will drive Future Changes in Online Dating Services

Understand the Competitive Scenarios

Track Right Markets

Identify the Right Verticals

Region Included are: North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Oceania, South America, Middle East & Africa

Country Level Break-Up: United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, Nigeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Germany, United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Turkey, Russia, France, Poland, Israel, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Australia and New Zealand etc.

Have Any Questions Regarding Global Online Dating Services Market Report, Ask Our Experts@ https://www.advancemarketanalytics.com/enquiry-before-buy/7127-global-online-dating-services-market?utm_source=OpenPR&utm_medium=Vinay

Strategic Points Covered in Table of Content of Global Online Dating Services Market:

Chapter 1: Introduction, market driving force product Objective of Study and Research Scope the Online Dating Services market

Chapter 2: Exclusive Summary – the basic information of the Online Dating Services Market.

Chapter 3: Displaying the Market Dynamics- Drivers, Trends and Challenges & Opportunities of the Online Dating Services

Chapter 4: Presenting the Online Dating Services Market Factor Analysis, Porters Five Forces, Supply/Value Chain, PESTEL analysis, Market Entropy, Patent/Trademark Analysis.

Chapter 5: Displaying the by Type, End User and Region/Country 2017-2022

Chapter 6: Evaluating the leading manufacturers of the Online Dating Services market which consists of its Competitive Landscape, Peer Group Analysis, BCG Matrix & Company Profile

Chapter 7: To evaluate the market by segments, by countries and by Manufacturers/Company with revenue share and sales by key countries in these various regions (2023-2028)

Chapter 8 & 9: Displaying the Appendix, Methodology and Data Source

Finally, Online Dating Services Market is a valuable source of guidance for individuals and companies.

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Thanks for reading this article; you can also get individual chapter wise section or region wise report version like North America, Middle East, Africa, Europe or LATAM, Southeast Asia.

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#OnlineDatingServices

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[eretzyisrael]

WASHINGTON - Israel and Morocco have agreed to normalize ties, US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday. Morocco will become the fourth Arab country to normalize relations with Israel in just four months, following the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan.

“Another HISTORIC breakthrough today!” Trump tweeted. “Our two GREAT friends Israel and the Kingdom of Morocco have agreed to full diplomatic relations – a massive breakthrough for peace in the Middle East!”

As part of the agreement, US President Donald Trump agreed to recognize Morocco's sovereignty over the Western Sahara, where there has been a decades-old territorial dispute with Morocco pitted against the Algeria-backed Polisario Front, a breakaway movement that seeks to establish an independent state in the territory.“Morocco's serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal is the ONLY basis for a just and lasting solution for enduring peace and prosperity!” he tweeted.

“Morocco recognized the United States in 1777.  It is thus fitting we recognize their sovereignty over the Western Sahara,” Trump added.

“The United States affirms, as stated by previous Administrations, its support for Morocco's autonomy proposal as the only basis for a just and lasting solution to the dispute over the Western Sahara territory,” Trump’s proclamation reads. “Therefore, as of today, the United States recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory and reaffirms its support for Morocco's serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal as the only basis for a just and lasting solution to the dispute over the Western Sahara territory.”

“The United States believes that an independent Sahrawi State is not a realistic option for resolving the conflict and that genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only feasible solution,” the proclamation states. “We urge the parties to engage in discussions without delay, using Morocco's autonomy plan as the only framework to negotiate a mutually acceptable solution.”

Establishing ties between the two countries remained a prime goal for the Trump administration in the past few weeks. In September, it was reported that a line of direct flights would be established, but according to Moroccan media, local officials dismissed the reports and said they were not true.

In February, Axios reported that the United States and Israel are negotiating a scenario that would have the US recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the occupied territories in Western Sahara if the Arab state would move in the direction of normalizing relations with Israel.

"[The normalization] comes on the heels of four years of very, very hard work and very intense diplomacy," said senior adviser Jared Kushner in a press briefing. "As part of this deal, Morocco will establish full diplomatic relations and resume official contacts with Israel."

He added that Morocco will grant overflight and direct flights to and from Israel. "They'll reopen the liaison offices in Rabat and Tel Aviv immediately with the intention to open the embassies in the near future. They'll be promoting economic cooperation between Israeli and Moroccan companies," he added.

Speaking about the decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty in Western Sahara, Kushner said that "[it is] something that seemed inevitable at this point; is something that we think advances the region and helps bring more clarity to where things are going." 

The move itself would be the culmination of a successful 12-month period of Arab-Israeli relations, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visiting Chad and meeting with Sudanese leaders and making steps to normalize ties after this week's diplomatic mission, as well as the warming relations and cooperation with Saudi Arabia, in addition to a number of other Arab states.

Following the announcement, President Trump spoke with King Mohammed VI of Morocco. According to a readout provided by the White House, "The leaders discussed cooperation in the fight against the coronavirus, ways to minimize its economic impact, and common interests in critical regional issues."

"During the conversation the King agreed to resume diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel and expand economic and cultural cooperation to advance regional stability," the White House said in a statement.

Under the agreement, Morocco will establish full diplomatic relations and resume official contacts with Israel, grant overflights and also direct flights to and from Israel for all Israelis.

"They are going reopen their liaison offices in Rabat and Tel Aviv immediately with the intention to open embassies. And they are going to promote economic cooperation between Israeli and Moroccan companies," White House senior adviser Jared Kushner told Reuters.

"Today the administration has achieved another historic milestone. President Trump has brokered a peace agreement between Morocco and Israel – the fourth such agreement between Israel and an Arab/Muslim nation in four months.

"Through this historic step, Morocco is building on its longstanding bond with the Moroccan Jewish community living in Morocco and throughout the world, including in Israel. This is a significant step forward for the people of Israel and Morocco.

"It further enhances Israel’s security, while creating opportunities for Morocco and Israel to deepen their economic ties and improve the lives of their people."

A White House statement on the phone call between Trump and the king of Morocco said Trump "reaffirmed his support for Morocco's serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal as the only basis for a just and lasting solution to the dispute over the Western Sahara territory."

"And as such the president recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory," the statement said.

Palestinians have been critical of the normalization deals, saying Arab countries have set back the cause of peace by abandoning a longstanding demand that Israel give up land for a Palestinian state before it can receive recognition.

With Trump to leave office on Jan. 20, the Morocco deal could be among the last his team, led by Kushner and US envoy Avi Berkowitz, is able to negotiate before they give way to President-elect Joe Biden's incoming administration.

Much of the momentum behind the deal-making has been to present a united front against Iran and roll back its regional influence.

The Trump White House has tried to get Saudi Arabia to sign on to a normalization deal with Israel, believing if the Saudis agreed other Arab nations would follow, but the Saudis have signaled they are not ready.

One more Middle East breakthrough is possible. Last week Kushner and his team traveled to Saudi Arabia and Qatar seeking an end to a three-year rift between Doha and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

A tentative deal has been reached on this front but it was far from clear whether a final agreement to end a blockade of Qatar will be sealed. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt have maintained a diplomatic, trade and travel embargo on Qatar since mid-2017.

While Biden is expected to move US foreign policy away from Trump's "America First" posture, he has indicated he will continue the pursuit of what Trump calls "the Abraham Accords" between Israel and Arab and Muslim nations.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

November 9, 2020

Heather Cox Richardson

I had hoped that the days when the news came like a firehose were over, but so far, no luck.

This morning, the stock market jumped 1200 points in its first day of trading after the announcement of Biden’s election. Over the course of the day it was up as much as 1600 points, then ended for the day with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 834.57 points, or 2.95%.

The strong market is at least in part because pharmaceutical company Pfizer and the German drug company BioNTech announced today they have a coronavirus vaccine which appears to be about 90% effective. The Trump administration immediately tried to take credit for the vaccine, only to have Pfizer note that it has not taken federal money under Trump’s Operation Warp Speed for rushing a coronavirus vaccine. Don Jr. promptly suggested that the delay in announcing the potential vaccine until this week was designed to hurt Trump’s reelection, but it seems Pfizer is likely distancing itself from Trump to avoid any suggestion that the vaccine is about politics, rather than science. In the past, the administration has touted a number of treatments for Covid-19 that have turned out to be ineffective, and the pressure for a vaccine before the election threatened to weaken public faith in one.

The pandemic continues to worsen across the country. Today we learned that Ben Carson, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, has tested positive for the virus; so has David Bossie, the Trump adviser in charge of the campaign’s legal challenges to the election loss. Both men were at the election night watch party at the White House, along with White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, who was infected at the time and did not wear a mask. Aides told PBS NewsHour reporter Yamiche Alcindor that they were worried the event would be a superspreader, but felt pressured to attend.

President-Elect Joe Biden started his presidential transition today, beginning by announcing the makeup of his coronavirus task force. It’s an impressive group of doctors and scientists, including Dr. Rick Bright, a whistleblower fired by Trump officials. “Please, I implore you, wear a mask," Biden told Americans. "A mask is not a political statement…. The goal is to get back to normal as fast as possible.”

New leadership and the rising infection rates are shifting the conversation. Last night, Utah’s Republican Governor Gary Herbert announced a state of emergency. He has imposed a statewide mask mandate indefinitely and a ban on social gatherings outside of households for the next two weeks. He has limited extracurricular activities at schools. Businesses that don’t follow the mask mandate can be fined; organizers who ignore the social gathering rule can be prosecuted and fined up to $10,000.

Not everyone likes the idea of new leadership, though. In an unprecedented move, Trump is refusing to acknowledge that he has lost the election. He has launched lawsuits challenging the ballot counting in a number of states, and his surrogates—including White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany—are accusing the Democrats of cheating. Tonight, Attorney General William Barr legitimized the idea of voter fraud by permitting federal prosecutors to investigate such allegations. Barr’s move prompted the head of the Election Crimes Branch of the Department of Justice, Richard Pilger, to resign.

But what’s so weird about this is that they are losing all these lawsuits. Indeed, some of them they’re not even trying to win: they’re not bothering to fill out the correct paperwork. It seems clear that they are simply stoking the narrative of an unfair election, but it is not at all clear to me to what end.

It is certainly possible that Trump and his people are launching a coup, as observers warn. And yet, this would not be an easy task. Biden’s win is not a few votes here or there; it is commanding, and Trump’s aides are telling reporters they think the game is played out. The military has already said it wants no part of getting involved in the election, and the courts so far are siding against the administration entirely. Even key Republican leaders, such as Georgia’s Republican lieutenant governor, are denying there has been any problem with the vote.

Maybe what’s at stake is that last Tuesday’s election left control of the Senate hanging on two runoff elections in Georgia. Today the Republican candidates in those races tagged on to the cries of voter fraud to call for Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to resign. Raffensberger is the top elections official in the state. He is a Republican. There is no evidence of any irregularity in the 2020 Georgia election, and the two senators did not offer any. But if they can get Democratic votes thrown out, Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler might avoid the runoffs that look like they might well result in Democratic victories.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is determined to keep control of the Senate, and ginning up a conviction that the election was rigged could do that. McConnell defended Trump’s challenging of the election today, although he did not explicitly say he believed the election had been fraudulent. Trump’s attacks are working: new polling shows that 7 out of 10 Republican voters now think that the 2020 election was illegitimate. Barr met with McConnell before he signed onto the idea of voter fraud by announcing that federal prosecutors could go after it.

Still, while control of the Senate is likely driving McConnell, it seems highly unlikely that Trump cares about it. Perhaps the president is simply deep in a narcissistic rage, unable to face the idea of losing.

But there is something else niggling at me.

Trump’s refusal to acknowledge Biden’s win means that the current administration is denying him the right to see the President’s Daily Briefing (the PDB) which explains the biggest security threats facing the country and the latest intelligence information. Trump can keep Biden from seeing other classified information, too.

Today, Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper (by announcing the firing on Twitter), and replaced him with a loyalist, Christopher C. Miller, who will be “acting” only. Trump also selected a loyalist and Republican political operative, Michael Ellis, to become the general counsel at the National Security Agency, our top spy agency, over the wishes of intelligence officials. Ellis was the chief counsel to Representative Devin Nunes (R-CA), a staunch Trump loyalist. Trump is also reportedly considering firing FBI director Christopher Wray and CIA director Gina Haspel. Last week, he quietly fired the leaders of the agencies that oversee our nuclear weapons, international aid, and electricity and natural gas regulation, although the last of those officials was moved to a different spot in the administration.

In other words, Trump is cleaning out the few national security leaders who were not complete lackeys and replacing them with people who are. It’s funny timing for such a shake-up, especially one that will destabilize the country, making us more vulnerable.

Today Washington Post diplomacy and national security reporter John Hudson noted that a source told him that the “Trump administration just gave Congress formal notification for a massive arms transfer to the United Arab Emirates: 50 F-35s, 18 MQ-9 Reapers with munitions; a $10 billion munitions package including thousands of Mk 82 dumb bombs, guided bombs, missiles & more….” This deal comes two months after the administration’s Abraham Accord normalizing relations between Israel and the UAE opened the way for arms sales.

The UAE has wanted the F-35 for years; it is the world’s most advanced fighter jet. They cost about $100 million apiece. The president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has secretly been pushing for the sale of the arms to the UAE in the face of fierce opposition by government agencies and lawmakers.

The administration had announced a much smaller version of this deal at the end of October, in a sale that would amount to about $10 billion, but Congress worried about the weaponry falling into the hands of China or Russia and seemed unlikely to let the sale happen. In 2019, it stopped such a deal. Trump declared a national emergency in order to go around Congress and sell more than $8 billion of weapons to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. He later fired Steven Linick, the State Department’s inspector general looking into those sales, but when the IG’s report came out nonetheless, it was scathing, suggesting that they put the U.S. at risk of being prosecuted for war crimes.

When you remember that Trump’s strong suit has always been distraction, and that he has always used the presidency as a money-making venture, I wonder if we need to factor those characteristics in when we think about his unprecedented and dangerous refusal to admit he has lost this election.

—-

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

Heather Cox Richardson

[ruminativerabbi]

More Light!

I first read The Lives of the Caesars by Suetonius, the famously gossipy and endlessly amusing historian of the first twelve Roman emperors, when I was in graduate school. Lots of the book stays with me still, but among those anecdotes he relates that I could cite in a letter that might possibly fall into the hands of children my favorite has to do, I think, with the death of Vespasian—the archenemy of the Jews of his day and the Roman most responsible for the brutal defeat of the rebellion that left Jerusalem in ruins and the Temple razed. He was dying of terminal diarrhea (which detail appeals to me for some reason) and sensed that his end was near, when, so Suetonius, he looked at the people assembled by his bedside and archly said, “Vae, puto deus fio,” which translates loosely as “Vay iz mir, I think I’m turning into a god.”  Okay, the vay iz mir part I just made up. (Although vae in Latin means roughly the same thing as that longer Yiddish expression that oddly starts with the same word.) But the rest is slightly funny, slightly pathetic: since the Romans in his day liked to imagine their deceased Caesars turning into minor gods, Vespasian apparently though he could announce his imminent demise in an amusing way by forecasting his posthumous deification. Hardy-har-har!

That story came back to me over the last week as I received email after email about my last letter, the one in which I quoted Leonard Cohen’s song about light coming into the world because everything, somewhere, has a crack in it through which light can seep. I used that image to frame some of the good things I perceived as having happened lately, incidents or events that reminded me—in a particularly dark, distressing couple of months—that where there is darkness there can also be light…if you know where to look for it!

One writer asked me, I think seriously, if I was turning—not into a Roman god—but, in some ways even less probably, into an optimist. My regular readers know that optimism is hardly a hallmark of my worldview. Just to the contrary, I think, is the case: I have read too much—way too much—history, and particularly Jewish history, to see things other than clearly. And, at least for me, that means understanding mindless anti-Israelism not as a momentary aberration but as an integral plank of Western culture, as merely the latest iteration of the anti-Judaic sentiment that underlies too much of Western culture to be removed or even removable other than by the cultural version of a tectonic plate shift. So, no, I don’t think I’m ready to look out at the world and declare myself even a non-cockeyed optimist. And yet there have been just lately some positive, encouraging events that I omitted to discuss last week. And so, at risk of being accused of abandoning my systemic pessimism about the universe, I thought I’d risk writing about them this week. Why not? I’m on a roll!

I am thinking of two recent events principally.

The first is the conference that took place just last month in London that brought together Arab intellectuals and leaders from fifteen different Arab countries: Morocco, Sudan, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, and nine Persian Gulf states, all of whom were apparently of the mind that the best way to bring peace to the Middle East would be for Arab states, as well as the Palestinians, to engage with Israel, to abandon the decades-long boycott of the Jewish State, and to welcome Israel as a partner-in-dialogue. Even casual students of the Middle East will understand easily how surprising—or rather, shocking—a development this was. And yet, there they were: journalists, artists, scholars, politicians, and scholars (including scholars of the Quran) sitting together and saying clearly that the refusal to acknowledge the reality of Israel’s existence has mostly cost the Palestinians what could otherwise have been the opportunity to build their own state with the willing, even eager, support of their Israeli neighbors.

The group has a name: The Arab Council for Regional Integration. And they have a leader too in one Mustafa el-Dessouki, an Egyptian who edits an influential Arabic-language news magazine called Majalla. More recognizable will be the name of Anwar el-Sadat, not the assassinated Egyptian leader (obviously) but a namesake and nephew whose major claim to fame—at least so far—lies in his having been expelled from the Egyptian Parliament in 2017 for not being sufficiently obsequious to Egyptian President (and strongman) Abdel el-Sisi.

I’ve read several accounts of this meeting. (To sample some, click here, here, here, and here. To hear former P.M. Tony Blair’s address to the group, click here.) All seem in agreement that these people are sincere and that they represent a real sentiment among many in the Arab world—albeit one rarely expressed in public—to the effect that the real way to pave a path into the future for the Palestinians is for Israel to be made to feel secure, thus less inclined to act solely defensively, and to foster an atmosphere of mutual undertaking and endeavor that will make Israelis into real people for their Palestinian neighbors and, in some ways even more dauntingly, vice versa. This is something I’ve hoped would happen, basically, forever—the sudden appearance of a block of respected thinkers prepared to enter into sustained, respectful dialogue with Israeli leaders that is not “about” Israel’s right to exist but rather about the ideal way for Israel and its neighbors to relate to each other, to work together on projects of mutual benefit, and to create the kind of peaceful setting in the Middle East that would benefit all concerned parties.

It’s just a beginning. It’s not even that much of a beginning. But it is something…and, as far as I can see, it actually is real. I feel buoyed, almost encouraged, slightly hopeful, marginally less pessimistic—all highly unlikely developments for someone who prides himself on the sobriety and realisticism of his worldview. And yet…here we are! Something new has happened. Where we go from here, none can say. But all can hope!

So that was the first event I wanted to bring to your attention. The second has to do with a visit just last week by some senior journalists from Iraq, Egypt, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia who came to visit Israel for a five-day visit. Organized by the Israeli Foreign Ministry, the guests all came from countries without diplomatic ties to Israel. But they came anyway, and this too represents a kind of sea-change—or at least the intimation of the possibility of that kind of sea-change—in the intransigency and obstinacy that has characterized even relatively liberal Arab writers when it came down to accepting the reality of Israel and understanding that the path to peace in the Middle East is through dialogue rather than violence. Yes, it’s true that these journalists, apparently fearing repercussions at home if it became known that they had been in Israel, retained their anonymity during the trip. But that only makes their visit more, not less, remarkable: here were people with everything to lose. And yet they came, partially (I’m sure) out of curiosity, but apparently also to take a principled stance against the mindless rejectionism that has led exactly nowhere in more than seventy years.

Their visit was not totally unprecedented. Last summer, a group of bloggers and journalists from Iraq and the Gulf States who came to Israel also last month as guests of the Israeli Foreign Ministry. In some ways, it was a normal trip: visits to Yad Vashem, the Temple Mount, the Knesset, etc. But this too was something we hadn’t ever seen: young writers, particularly bloggers, from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and some Gulf States traveling around Israel, seeing the people not as a faceless enemy but as actual individual men and women, attempting to understand the culture of the place and its sense of self. (To get the idea, click here for a picture of a young Saudi blogger named Mohammed Saud and Yair Netanyahu, Bibi’s son, sitting side by side and apparently getting along just fine.)

None of this is going to matter in the long run if the participants are doomed to be outliers who represent no one but themselves. But I have long hoped—even prayed—for something like this, for people on the other side to realize that the great hope for a future for the Palestinian people lies in dialogue and cooperation, not in violence fueled by self-generated despair.

Yes, it isn’t much. In some ways, it’s hardly anything at all. But you know how it works with cracks and light: even the narrowest crack has the capacity to let in enough light to change everything! As Chanukah, the Festival of Lights, approaches, that seems like a positive notion to keep in mind.

[businessertreter]

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[mariacallous]

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the Middle East this week mainly as a firefighter rather than a peacemaker. For the most part, Blinken’s nine-nation tour—the latest démarche by the Biden administration in a frenetic, monthslong campaign to avert a wider regional war—is about tamping down the conflagration in Gaza and preventing the United States from being pulled in any further. 

But the administration is also hoping to begin laying down a scheme for a more lasting Middle East settlement. And Saudi Arabia—where Blinken landed Monday before heading on to Israel—is expected to play a significant part. In particular, U.S. President Joe Biden wants Riyadh to resume talks over recognizing Israel in return for Israeli restraint in Gaza and the West Bank and pledges to accommodate Palestinian interests, including an eventual Palestinian state or at least some degree of sovereignty.

Riyadh is, for the most part, going along, U.S. officials believe. “Our conversations with the Saudis in just recent weeks indicate they still want to move normalization forward,” said a senior administration official in late December.

Blinken, in remarks to reporters at a joint news conference in Doha with Qatar’s foreign minister, indicated he was having some success in overcoming initial Arab resistance to discussing “day after” scenarios, saying that “our partners are willing to have these difficult conversations and to make hard decisions. All of us feel a stake in forging the way forward.” 

All of this is at the very beginning stage, of course—and most of it won’t move ahead anytime soon in the face of continued resistance by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-right government to anything that resembles a Palestinian state. Within Israel, Netanyahu is widely blamed for allowing the Oct. 7 catastrophe to happen—indeed, even abetting it by shoring up Hamas at the expense of the Palestinian Authority for years—and his support is plummeting. But the gruesome Hamas attacks have also shifted Israeli public opinion far to the right, making the immediate prospect of any two-state negotiation all but impossible. 

“The body politic in Israel can’t absorb that right now,” said longtime U.S. Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross, who visited Israel at the end of December. “The emotional depth of this is remarkable. … Everybody knows someone who was killed in the south [near the Gaza border], someone who was kidnapped, a soldier who’s been killed or wounded.”

In fact, there is every indication that the politically embattled Netanyahu sees his opposition to Biden’s plans as the key to keeping himself in office—and possibly out of prison. (Netanyahu faces a slew of corruption charges.) According to Israeli media, Netanyahu has been telling members of his Likud party that only he can prevent the creation of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank after the war. Public opinion inside Israel has increasingly backed Netanyahu’s idea that any degree of sovereignty granted to any Palestinian entity would mean future attacks on Israel—and that speaking of such an outcome now would only hand a victory to Hamas.

But Biden, in turn, wants to push even harder in an election year in which he’s suffering low approval ratings—especially since he and his administration have been harshly criticized within the Democratic Party for supporting Israel’s bloody crackdown. 

And conceptually, at least, some pieces of an eventual peace plan may be starting to fall into place. Underlying those possibilities is one of the least-noted dimensions of the current Israel-Palestinian conflict: Despite the expressions of outrage that have come from Arab capitals since the Israel Defense Forces began operations that have killed nearly 23,000 Palestinians in Gaza in retaliation for Oct. 7, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, most of the Arab world simply isn’t very interested in the political future of the Palestinian people. 

Indeed, it is far less interested than it ever has been. And many Arab leaders are secretly as keen to be rid of Hamas as the Israelis are.

“The most profound enemy of the Palestinians isn’t the Israelis; it’s the other Arabs,” said Ryan Crocker, a retired U.S. ambassador who has served throughout the region since the early 1980s, in a phone interview. One example: The secular military-run Egyptian government of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi erupted in fury when the Biden administration asked it to take in Palestinian refugees through the Rafah crossing of Gaza. 

Why? The Islamist leadership of Hamas, with its ideology largely based on the radical Muslim Brotherhood born in Egypt, is anathema to nearly every Arab regime. “For Egypt, Hamas is almost an existential threat,” said Crocker. This is in stark contrast to decades ago, when secular Palestinian fighters found refuge and support in different countries such as Lebanon, Syria, and Libya—and even gained the backing of some Arab leaders in their efforts to topple Jordan’s Hashemite Kingdom. 

That, in turn, could open the door to a settlement by which the Saudis, Egyptians, and other Arab states help to reconstruct Gaza with major investment, but without pushing too hard for a political solution—at least until some viable alternative to Hamas and the discredited Palestinian Authority emerges. 

Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, now “seems to be aligned with—if not to lead—a broad Arab coalition united in its terms for contributing to Washington’s ‘morning after’ strategy,” said Nimrod Novik, a former senior advisor to the late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres and a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum..

In remarks last October, Biden said that Hamas’s attacks on Israel were intended, in part, to derail the potential normalization of the U.S. ally’s relations with Saudi Arabia. “They knew that I was about to sit down with the Saudis,” Biden said at a campaign event. “Guess what? The Saudis wanted to recognize Israel.”

The key sticking point now is whether the Biden team can finesse its way around the question of who will emerge to lead the Palestinians. The U.S. continues to insist that governance of both Gaza and the West Bank needs to be “connected under a revamped and revitalized Palestinian Authority,” as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said during a mid-December visit to Israel. Netanyahu’s government refuses to consider this, but if he is eventually toppled, it is possible that a successor such as the popular Benny Gantz, a retired general who chairs the more moderate National Unity party and is a more centrist member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet, would reconsider. In the past, Gantz has spoken of a “two-entity solution” but stopped short of endorsing a Palestinian state.

Gantz has already begun to publicly criticize the prime minister, suggesting that Netanyahu was responsible for an angry cabinet dispute on Jan. 4, when right-wing ministers allied with Netanyahu attacked IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi over his plan to launch an inquiry into the mistakes that led to Oct. 7. 

Tensions between Washington and Israel were also somewhat ameliorated after Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, announced on Jan. 4 that Israel would move into a new stage that focuses on a more targeted strategy in the north of Gaza. He added that there would be “no Israeli civilian presence in the Gaza Strip after the goals of the war have been achieved,” though Israel would still reserve the right to operate in the territory.

This was a move in the direction of what the Biden administration has been pushing for. But Blinken was certain to meet with more resistance from Netanyahu over Gaza after the two traded pointed words, with the secretary declaring that Israel must stop killing civilians and that Palestinians “must be able to return home as soon as conditions allow.” Netanyahu retorted that the war will go on until Hamas is eliminated, adding, “I say this both to our enemies and our friends.” 

Still, the senior administration official said that even Netanyahu’s hard-line government understands the geopolitical costs of continuing to kill thousands of Palestinians in Gaza.

“They have recognized the need to shift from high intensity operation to lower intensity,” the official said. “We are asking them tough questions about what that looks like and trying to share with them our lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan.” He added: “We believe this is the important next step, and we are near the endgame of the conflict.”

For now, Blinken’s main task in a nation-hopping tour that includes stops not only in Israel and Saudi Arabia, but also Turkey, Greece, Jordan, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt will be to prevent a second front by Israel against Hezbollah—and to create a broader coalition against Iran. Yet the common interests of these governments in pursuing this goal, and their common concerns about Iranian influence, could also deliver a tailwind to future peace negotiations.

Ross, the career U.S. negotiator who was a central player in the implementation of the failed Oslo Accords three decades ago, says it’s possible that the national trauma of Oct. 7 could eventually force Israelis into a debate they have never really had about the Palestinians.

“There’s going to be a political reckoning here and also a debate about what their relationship to the Palestinians is,” he said. “They didn’t have it over Oslo, because Oslo was a secret deal. Now it’s as if you have an entire country going through PTSD. They need to sort it all out.”