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ts-akhmim · 4 years ago

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Episode 4 | “ladies and gays.......the games have OFFICIALLY begun “ - Adam

I was immune three times so far this season. Three times. and FOR WHAT? I'm so screwed if I don't win this immunity challenge. I know I'm a weak link, so if I don't win this, hopefully *dan* doesn't either cause I might have to target him to save my skin. This is where I'm really gonna have to be social over the next day, cause my ass is quite literally on the line right now. I'm not getting 18th-16th, screw this.

ladies and gays.......the games have OFFICIALLY begun, at least for me but hopefully not just for me or uh i might be in trouble... but anywho, another brain went home sorry to this person and right when we all thought a swap of some sort was coming, BOOM a twist of all twists... EVERYONE is going to tribal, that means after this vote, we're gonna be down to 16 people just like that. But before we get there we have to get through immunity and tribal first, i saw that time was one of the tiebreakers and was doing nothing better so i figured lets get this challenge with, its counting how hard can it really be, once again however i completely underestimed my stupid bitchness! i was all the way into the 400s almost through before i MESSED UP .... TWICE ... so in the end i somehow still got 211 which i guess we'll see if that was decent, i dont think ill win but hopefully im just not last. This also means its time to start talking game, i hope no one is scared to talk game because im absolutely not. I'm not here to just sit in the shadows right away, I started messaging just a couple of the people i feel ive built some small connections with and just start to plant seeds about the vote coming up, i dont wanna throw any names out there until at least after we see who wins immunity, but as of now, connor might be a first easy boot?? either that or thats just what people are telling me to blindside me...idk im also still completely shook that the idol is out there, so i really want to vote out whoever has it so i can try to find it again.... but the only problem is i have no idea who has it, it could very well be someone i trust just keeping it to themselves like i wouldve...so we'll see, today is the calm before the storm, and i can tell you the storm is right over the horizon on its way to cause chaos for the beauties because we've been sitting pretty for far too long (pun intened), tomorrow after 9 once we see who wins, thats when i predict at least for me alliance chats and plans will hopefully start coming to fruition and uh hopefully its not me

When you survived that vote out when you thought you were leaving https://media.giphy.com/media/5GoVLqeAOo6PK/200_d.gif When that twist comes out where three people all leave in the same round https://media.giphy.com/media/W7RVlWfc1O9gY/giphy.gif It's moments like this that make me realize that I should have tried to convince Devon to split up Autumn & Duncan last round. Because if Isaac was here, I could have easily gotten Devon and either Duncan/Autumn on board with voting out Isaac. Now we have to go to tribal AGAIN where we have to vote out a daddy :'( I'm still up in the air about what I want to do. Part of me is thinking about doing 2 options. 1 would be to utilize Devon to split up Autumn/Duncan. OR, I can align with Autumn/Duncan and vote out Devon. It's obvious that Autumn and Duncan are a duo, and I'm almost 100% certain that they'll tell Devon to vote me and me to vote Devon. Doing so gives them full power on who to send home, so I think my best bet is to vote with Devon this round. If Devon is as with me as he says he is, then the vote should tie. If Autumn/Duncan decide to vote me out over Devon, then I would hope Devon allows it to go to a tiebreaker. If they vote Devon, then I might just flip my vote and send Devon out of the game. Devon is a "i'm 100% loyal" type of person but at the same time, he also said the same things to me that he said to Duncan. So I don't trust him 100%. I wouldn't be surprised if the three of them just decided to vote me out. If I happen to win immunity, I might actually consider allowing Devon to go to a tiebreaker. I don't have anything to lose by having Devon and either Autumn or Duncan duke it out in a challenge. Devon sucks at challenges so he'd probably go home anyways, but at least the chance at staying is better than nothing. My goal is to win this challenge first and foremost. I hope that if I win that I have some power or influence in how this vote turns out. Given that I have a 25% chance at being voted out, anything can happen.

its literally so sad to see that the daddies have to go to tribal council. i made sure i didn't f*ck up in the immunity challenge and hopefully i have a good shot at winning it. Granted i survive this vote regardless, its going to be amazing to see the other tribes go to tribal council and test their tribe dynamics.This is like the equivalent of giving everyone a survivor wake up call. Just because we've been sucking doesn't mean we get to be spared by a swap. No one deserves anything, you have to earn it. Worst comes to worse I would like to think I have to make fire against scott or devon, which at that point if i lose then i would have done everything i can to stay in this god forsaken game. I'm leaning more towards wanting Scott out but obvi if he wins immunity i have no issue voting for Devon. Can you imagine us not swapping after this and then having to go to tribal again!? Its starting to get quite comical that we've had to play so much already and we're not even close to merge. Wish a bitch luck i guess

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Waiting for these results really has me terrified about how I did. Personally, I like to think I did well in that challenge. Not to toot my own horn or sound cocky, but I spent some time practicing beforehand. I went on a word doc and just kept typing numbers a few times. I also practiced breathing techniques so that I wouldn't let nerves get the best of me when it came to the challenge. AND I also played some mantras in my head to remind me to stay focus and not eat into stress. My mantras include "slow and steady wins the race" and "take a deep breath, go with the flow, just do your best, and show what you know." I also gave myself a time limit as to how long I could spend on each part. I allowed myself 13 minutes to go up, and 17 minutes to go down. I wanted more time going down since by the end my hands would get tired and having little time at the end leads to stress/a potential mess up. So I'm glad I paced myself out with it. I was really scared that my challenge wouldn't count at first because my internet froze up right as I was ending. Luckily, I took the time to take screenshots with time stamps on them just in case something happened. Cause at first I was told "you didn't complete it" and that had me PETRIFIED!! Like I desperately need to win this otherwise I'm gonna get voted out. But luckily my screenshots came through and they accepted my score of 533. If I win this immunity, I have a good chunk of power in deciding who gets voted out. And on top of that, there's no immediate consequences for my decisions. From the looks of it, it seems like Autumn and Devon did really bad in that challenge. I'm hoping that Duncan doesn't do better than me. As for this vote, I think Duncan/Autumn are definitely going to vote together. Which means that I need Devon and I to stick together for this vote. If I win immunity, then I am 100% on board with voting with Devon this round. Autumn/Duncan are too strong of a duo and they need to be split up. Otherwise if we're still together on this tribe, I get the boot soon. I realize after this that I need to work on getting new allies in this game. If I can make it up until a swap, I think I have the potential to go far. I plan to make new allies with whoever is on the swapped tribe, and I'll mention that brains tribe is dead and if they need me to prove my loyalty, I'd be willing to vote out the other two remaining brains. We'll see what happens though. If Duncan does win immunity, then I might feel out to see if Duncan/Autumn are honest about voting out Devon and if I get the vibe that they are, I'll jump on that just to get myself to the swap. Ideally, I want Devon around since I know he'll be loyal to me, but this is a situation that is far out of my control. So, let's hope I win immunity this round!

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Are all the Socotra people going to leave or like…? RIP Isaac truly, what a king! I am completely expecting a swap soon just because it makes tons of sense numbers wise? I hope we don’t because I have footing on this tribe which doesn’t happen usually so ghfjdksla

So after results, I’m mentally preparing myself for a swap because it WOULD happen yknow? Well this new twist? Has me gagged, gooped, shook, quaking, and confused all at the same time so yay for that! But yeah, it seems we’re having a nice little triple tribal feature tonight so get your popcorn folks cause the show is about to start! This twist does have me sorta shook just cause 3 people are leaving this round and we’ll be at F15… so in my head, this only confirms the fact that someone is gonna come back in the game at merge cause why wouldn’t the hosts do that? Well, I’m keeping an eye out for it all (and for Selener ofc)

Did I want to win this immunity challenge? Yes! Did that happen? No! Is that a bad thing? Honestly, not really! Like I am not the type of player that likes to be on people’s radars whatsoever so not being a winner of this game’s first individual immunity challenge is not something I can particularly mad about! Amir winning is cute like I love that for him <3 Adam did have me spooked that he was winning because he kept mentioning slightly high numbers BUT him and I did about the same so yay for us! While this vote is gonna be messy most likely, I do feel pretty secure and safe? I hate that I feel that way because I stay being caught off-guard when I feel that way but I’ve really focused on getting to know everyone here and letting the strategy come later so yeah (‘:

okay so today was about tying up lose ends. I had to clean up anything that could be used against me, and the main issue in my game right now is that i have built a great relationship with adam and i want him to stay, but my alliance does not want him to stay. My options are to save him with my idol, or convince my alliance to keep him, however, both could completely destroy my game. all 3 of them want adam gone, and its not worth it for me to go against all their wishes and it could make them doubt my loyalty, instead im going with the plan to vote adam out (i am so sorry u dont deserve it). However, i told augusto that adam told me about numbers at the bottom of the cast reveal. I realized that now there is leverage against me, that he or adam could use, so i have told the rest of the alliance about the numbers that adam found, hopefully to show them that im insanely loyal nejkwnfke even tho im not. But now, if i go againt adam, he has no dirt on me at all, and i can go through with the alliance's plan. Furthermore, I have a relationship with both austin and aj, so if adam goes, thats fine, ill just get closer to austin. Replace the relationship. Austin is also way less likely to lie or be a rat than adam would. if i could be swapped onto a tribe with duncan and autumn from the brains, i might just have to scoop them up! but i know autumn and ali are close

Me when I found out I won individual immunity at today's tribal and had the overall highest score out of every person in the game: https://media.giphy.com/media/1kIvUyWrdz88GKgtON/200_d.gif I was NOT expecting to do as well as I thought I did in that challenge. I expected to have won within my tribe, but not beat every single person in the game. i hope this challenge doesn't put a huge target on my back. I'm so happy that I won! Based on the mood of the camp right now, it seems like I needed to win. The only person who spoke to me prior to the challenge was Devon. Duncan's talking to me now, but I feel like it's only because I won immunity. I strongly believe that I needed this immunity otherwise I would have been voted out 3-1. Or at least a 2-2 tie if Devon is actually with me. But knowing that I play a major role in this outcome is a beautiful thing. If there was any tribal that I needed to be immune for, it would be this one. As for what I am thinking for tonight's tribal, I think that Autumn/Duncan are going to vote together this round. So this means that I could either vote with them to eliminate Devon OR I vote with Devon to cause a tie and have a tiebreaker challenge take place. Do I think Devon has a shot at winning this challenge? Honestly no... But I think voting with him has some added benefits. The first one is that it shows to everyone in the game that I'm about loyalty this time around. Secondly if he loses, it allows for me to make connections at a future swap. I can state that Autumn/Duncan are an obvious duo and that I have no allies. Showing off that look could help me gain new allies within the other tribes. Plus if Devon does win the challenge, then that's an ally I have going forward and I can state that vote as a move I made in this game at final tribal. Granted I've made moves so far in every vote during this game, but this is one that I can really emphasize towards me winning. But another reason I'm leaning towards keeping Devon is in the event that a swap doesn't happen and we lose again! By showing Devon that he almost left last round, I think he would 100% remain loyal to me for the rest of this game. However, it doesn't mean that I'm not open to hearing out other options. Devon does suck at challenges, so voting him out could be a good thing going forward. Plus I know for a fact that he's shady since he preached the same things to me that he said to Duncan. So I don't appreciate how he isn't being 100% truthful. Personally, I just don't trust any of the brains and need to jump on another tribe's bandwagon. I hope if I can make it to the swap that I can try to gain some new allies around here. Because I need people to make sure I get to the end. For now, I'm just going to hear everyone out and weigh out all of my options moving forward. I need to do what's best for Scottica going forward.

Whhhhaaattttt? Me uploading a confessional before 4 minutes before the next day??????? What a twist!!!!!!

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Anyways, the vote has come down to Devon leaving this round. Which doesn't surprise me, I expect Duncan/Autumn to not want to vote each-other out. Knowing that these two are unbreakable makes me want to work with Devon. But then Duncan also made the point that Devon comes off as the least threatening. Which is also true, he's the only one on our tribe who hasn't made it to the FTC yet. This has me thinking "let me talk to Devon about the tiebreaker challenge so he can figure out who he thinks he can beat" So I went into a call with Devon tonight basically expecting him to be down for a tiebreaker challenge against whoever he thought he could beat in the challenge, but ended up leaving the call actually wanting to vote him out because of how annoying he was throughout the whole call.... Me: "Hey Devon, Autumn and Duncan are 100% going to vote you out tonight. I will vote with you, but I need to know who you think you can beat in a tiebreaker challenge because if I vote with you, you need to win this challenge. Otherwise, I'll be public enemy #1 if you lose" Devon: "Well I think I could beat Duncan in a tiebreaker because he's throwing my name out there to try and get me out. Also, I've been completely honest with you this whole time so I hope that you'll vote with me tonight because I was going to go to the end with you. Anytime I was under the hot seat in Guyana, I made sure to win that challenge." Me: *looks at Guyana's wikia to see he won 1 immunity challenge and read confessionals about how he's a liar, a backstabber, and can't be trusted* The whole time he kept asking me who I wanted out and I'm like "none of the politics matter this round" Why? Because if it's a 2-2 tie, it comes down to how well you do in that challenge. Like I tried to tell this man he needs to bring his A game in the challenges. And he isn't even seeing that as a factor. Personally, I think Devon has a better chance at beating Autumn in a tiebreaker. Duncan performed better in all of the previous challenges so far. So the fact that he isn't really seeing this on a challenge performance level and more of a threat level shows that he doesn't see the severity of this situation. Chances are we will swap next round, so I can try vote Devon out and use connections to say "hey, I'm next to go on this tribe please align with me" in an attempt to get new allies. Plus Devon's paranoia really has me saying forget the whole tiebreaker plan and vote him out. UPDATE: I had to stop typing this confessional because Duncan called me to tell me Devon told him about the tiebreaker challenge and in all honesty Devon is a dumbass (sorry Devon) like his lack of perception in this game is TRULY astounding. Duncan and I basically spent the time bonding over his lack of sincerity and that Autumn is better for a swap. And with the performance he's putting on tonight, I'm ready to vote him out. I just have to hope we actually swap because if we do another tribe challenge and we lose AGAIN I know I get the boot. Also, I realize more and more that Devon really sucks at challenges and there's no way he can beat Autumn or Duncan at a challenge. So I guess I'm voting him out this round and then HOPING this doesn't come to bite me in the butt at the end. Sorry Devon. I wish I could have kept you, but you should have kept your mouth shut to Duncan & Autumn :/

... yeah I don’t think I can vote out Adam. Which is a shame because I made a promise and an alliance chat with Austin. But realistically Adam is a better player to keep around. He’s more easy going than Austin and more vengeful against the Brawn tribe which is definitely something worth keeping around. Also I accidentally just made an alliance with him. I really need to stop doing that before I start to face actual repercussions for my actions. Austin didn’t tell me his plans to vote out Connor so in my mind that’s sketchy as fuck. And I know he just got voted out of a game and I’d feel like a prick for voting him out. But we don’t have room for doubt in our tribe alliance. What if he’s trapped alone with Connor on a different tribe? Can we trust him not to vote for him? What if we merge and he feels the need to go off script? Will he just fuck off and do his own thing? And sure Adam most likely has an idol but he won’t have it forever. Sooner or later he’s going to have to use it and wouldn’t we be better off if he used it for us rather than against us? Then we can go in for the kill with his weapon down the hatch and our trust in his back pocket. Now I just need to express this to my teammates with out sounding like a psycho or a loon.

*sarah maclachlan playing in the background* hello ladies and gays, my name is adam, and welcome to..... my survivor funeral. In all my times playing tumblr survivor, the same situation has just ironically always happened to me, the very first tribal i partake in, my name ALWAYS gets thrown out there and i almost go home, but i somehow weasel my way out of it, and i think this time may be the one that finally gets me and stops me dead in my tracks this is gonna be a lot of tea so buckle up and get your teacups gorls, so basically immunity ends, i lose whatever i came close but ive never been one to need to rely on challenges to win, except maybe i did need this one, anywho after the challenges i go around and try to pick some brains, im hesitant about throwing a name out there but i did innevitably mention connor's name only to augusto/amir and austin mentioned voting connor to me first, i did say i felt disconnected to connor to austin first but i didnt say anything about voting him out first, anywho so im sitting here thinking...ok this seems too easy especially because i messaged other people aka augusto/amir and literally was getting no responses from them right away?? like im not an idiot, im of course assuming theyre plotting against me and normally im just being paranoid but NOT this time because AJ comes to me, because little does everyone know aj is definitely a friend of mine so he mentioned to me that kendall allegedly messaged this group chat they had the other day from the challenge i WILLINGLY sat out in, and was like "so obvious alliance without alex or adam and lets vote one of them out xD" like ooh ok you got me, congrats the only way you can play survivor successfully is by creating an alliance of circumstance that has nothing to build off of, its so frustrating the ONE time i really come into this game playing, like ive messaged and genuinely tried building relationships and for them to basically just all of the sudden be null and void over nothing??? it irks me i wont lie. It dissappoints me, and honestly upsets me. Im not an outwardly emotional person usually but im kinda upset over this? i know its a game and i shouldnt be taking it personally, but for me to have started building connections with people like augusto and amir and for them to just throw me down the river just because i wasnt included in their group bothers me. i guess i know its the name of the game, but what really upsets me is ive been TRYING and then theres people like connor who aj has said wasnt even ON the other group call for long at all and made no contribution??? but youre gonna vote me out.......someone who genuinely wanted to work with you people and am here to do so??? i guess on the bright side i can take some flattery if i leave first because aj said if they vote me over austin its because they view me as a bigger threat than him.....which they are 150% right to do so, however....they dont know im a threat!!!!! like i said some of these people havent even tried to get to even know me so how can you try and make conclusions about me already?????? AND YALL ARE REALLY SO DIMWITTED YOU THINK ID WORK WITH JAKEY ON THE OTHET SIDE BECAUSE I KNOW HIM???? what part of i voted him OUT last game, he NOR i have played since which shows you how traumatic it was, like i know he's against me already so im 100% not wanting to work with him. but guess what, if by SOME miracle i survive this tribal, and i would really need a miracle, if a swap comes soon i am 100% going to flip because augusto? dead to me. he can stream jlo for all i care. amir? sorry to this man who i barely know and tried to work with because we had a brief tumblr history together, which i barely knew him then either, clearly i made the right call not associating with him often, kendall, she's perhaps the fakest of them all, she basically messaged me and when i said what were you thinking she said "ive heard austin and connor but i DONT want to vote austin" so in my mind i know its really me or austin so good job, you just told the person you want out that you want them out. my plan now is to simply try to survive right now, and if that means having to vote austin out its what im gonna do, but aj himself has told me amir/augusto would be open to working with me had i proposed some type of alliance to them, so thats my next plan, i hope i can make them want to work with me over kendall/connor, and the 4 of us form a REAL alliance, and if they want austin ill vote austin, at this point i switch into flight or fight mode and as much as i love a good fight, i have to keep my claws put away for this one, no one knows how BAD i want to just call out all of this tribe for lying right to my face and keeping me in the dark for no reason other than a pure coincidence, if they vote me out ill tell them off as i walk out of course, but i really dont want to blow up ajs game and i want this plan to work.... so ive got to shut my big mouth right now and try to outplay as much as i would like to just outscream them all right now.. anywho, its not looking good for me. i have about a 45% chance of survival i feel like, so send me all the positive energy you can because a bitch needs it, god speed yall and ill see you on the other side one way or another...

ugh one last thing i forgot......if im really voted out first and get that cirie hvv treatmeant because in my mind i just WANT to be her.......lets omit this time! no need to update the wiki, we'll press delete and pretend this moment never happened because thats how im going to treat it especially these FAKE ass PHONY ass people. FRAUDS. all of them. like i get it, im a fake bitch at times obviously like thats the game but im not used to people being fake to ME like it hurts especially when you think youre feeling real bonds with people..... i- lemme not start going on and on again. im not a quitter, im a tough cookie, ive had way worst problems in life ive figured out on my own and luckily im not completely alone with aj unless he's just been playing me which then OUCH that would hurt 1000x more but i genuinely dont think he is, at this point i trust him with my life in this game because i feel like he's my key to staying. i need him, and i need augusto/amir, even though they've hurt my feelings and i want my revenge, i have to compose myself and play my cards right, this is a war, not a battle, and while i may lose all at once, i have to play the move i think will most best keep me here one night longer ...

oh gorl ok i promise LAST ONE i just have to get this off my chest! ok so, after thinking about it and smoking a nighttime bowl i'm less UPSET about the possibility of me going home first on the beauty's and now i'm just more confused, augusto did message me back and was saying he'd be interested in my proposed alliance however he could easily be lying to me since he's been lying to me already this whole game however i have no choice other than to try this hail mary, i also think i'm gonna try to plant doubt against kendall because she directly told me she was basically voting me out, so i'm gonna go around and tell people she refused to vote austin out, because she did say that, and hopefully they don't just give in to her bidding. i can't really be mad, we won't be singing amigas cheetahs tonight, but i'm gonna turn my frustration into work, i see multiple scenarios in my head the moment i start to feel the one i'm in is heading south so right now my only chance of making it through is pushing this alliance and testing the connections i've been trying to build, wish me luck if i hear something good from amir there might be a glimmer of hope? probably not but i'll absolutely try just for the good edit of a dramatic tribal dahling

So first off, fuck Skype. Because if Skype wasn't a laggy ass bitch, I would have won that immunity. But it's fine because I don't think I'm going anywhere just yet. It's been very refreshing to have multiple people come up to me and say they want to work with me. Like Jakey obviously has been the person I've been able to talk to openly since Day 2. And I knew Dan and I had a mutual bond that would allow a good amount of trust, so it was nice to see that become much more evident when he came to me to talk game. Now I have Jordan and Ali who both said they want to work with me / guaranteed not write my name down. And Liam is hardcore pitching to me and actually making a lot of sense. So now even though I thought I would go for Liam this round, I actually think I may push for Lovelis to go. It's a weird thought that the person I just finished a game with would be the one I'm going to probably vote tonight, but it may make the most sense for my game. I admittedly also don't think everyone voted out is going to get eliminated. My guess is one of them survive and then we have a swap with 2 tribes of 8, but we shall see!

It’s tribal time y’all! My alliance (me, Amir, Kendall, Connor) had the idea of adding AJ to our circle as it would be super easy to do so as we all are in a challenge chat together which is nice. I do really like AJ now like we’ve really connected these past few days and have had a little duo-bond going on so this 5 person alliance is the best chance for us to get even closer in a game-sense. We all went on call and discussed the topic of Adam versus Austin. While AJ and Amir would prefer to keep Adam, Kendall prefers to keep Austin. I’m genuinely on the fence because I like both of them and they both like me a lot? I tried to rationalize it in a game sense of Austin is slightly more transparent and easier to read while also having a weird social game that would keep one of us over him in a swap scenario. Adam, on the other hand, is probably more dangerous long term as he could cause more damage and his relationship with Jakey is very up in the air in terms how it affects us in a swap. So for the immediate future, Austin would be better to keep around because of a swap but thinking about the long-term, Adam could be better as he could be a shield? It’s interesting like this vote really is about weighing instant gratification versus delayed gratification and seeing which helps us out more?

While on our 5 person alliance chat call, AJ ended up revealing how the idol system works which…. YAAAAASSS we won! A thing that concerned me is that he said someone had already found something which is likely Adam considering he had told Amir about the numbers thing beforehand? That is just my gut telling me that though but it’s something we gotta think about hmmmm… very inch resting.

Not Kendall and I making an alliance with Austin ghfjdsk, it FINALLY happened but it’s kinda silent so far? I’m kinda side-eying Austin as when I talked to him about the vote, he had only mentioned Adam to me whereas he mentioned Adam and Connor to other people so it’s like… do you REALLY trust me? I don’t really know anymore, it’s something to keep in mind though!

We had agreed on voting Adam and not gonna lie, I feel awful about it from a personal standpoint? I really really like Adam like we have so many similarities and common interests so I’ve really grown to appreciate our bond. Adam had mentioned making an alliance with me, him, Amir, and AJ and told me that he wanted to ask me how I felt about that before he told the others because he really values my opinion which made my heart cry. To make matters worse, he told me how he feels he can FINALLY experience a game where he has genuine people he likes to work with and cause damage like AHHHH I feel so bad because a part of me wants to keep him but my loyalty to my people is outweighing that? Like I do genuinely want to keep Adam because he’s amazing and I would feel awful voting him out because I think he’ll take it the most personally from me and I don’t want to be the cause of someone else’s pain/sadness ever yknow? Ugh, it’s just a lot and I probably seem like an emotional mess but I think I have to put more value in my head over my heart in this game and this could be a start?

I went to bed sad about having to vote Adam today and I woke up to Kendall wanting to call me. We go on call and debate whether the fact we wanna vote for Adam to begin with and we were both kinda like… we honestly don’t? Not just because we like Adam but Austin is not being as transparent or present as we would’ve hoped so it kinda helps us make our decision for us? I did tell her about Adam’s alliance proposal because I also want to be as transparent as possible and even flipped it in a way that we can make Adam feel extra comfortable with a false majority so if he does have an idol, we can keep him from ever playing it. Not just that, but we can also convince Adam to vote Austin instead of Connor like he wants to by us falsely stating Connor helped out tons in the challenge and while he won’t be completely active, that’s to our benefit and not a detriment at all. We then got on call with AJ and he agreed with our points so yay for saving Adam? I’m genuinely happy with this especially since Adam does benefit my longer term game and I love him so <3

I am SHAKING right now. It's obviously come down to either between me or Liam L, and it sucks! I didn't want to vote out Liam but my hand has been forced at this point! He's been on away all morning so I've made my move, trying to hit up Ali, Jordan, Jakey, TJ, even Dan (who answered me then went on away c':) I THINK I've done a good job of speaking as to why I'd like to stay? Jordan is keeping me updated and TJ said he will as well, so I hope they're telling the truth..

Since it's been awhile, there are a few things to go over: 1. The alliance between myself/Scott/Duncan/Autumn has been so successful so far. We survived three straight tribal councils after losing three straight competitions. We didn't waiver a single bit from one another and that is so rare in Survivor. 2. Going into this round, I thought my only chance was to enter a tiebreaker against Duncan and try and win in a competition. I pleaded to Scott for his vote, but he was skeptical. 3. With my back up against the wall, I confronted Duncan in hopes of flipping his vote. As a result, a chat between myself/Duncan/Scott was created. 4. As long as Scott/Duncan aren't playing me, this could very well be the fourth tribal council in which I survived with my name being mentioned in three of them. Slithering doesn't always work, but this round has been the toughest one to date.

it's still day 9 and SO much more has already happened... i could be writing to you from the grave with this, but i think, maybe just maybe, i might have a shot at staying now. its so crazy how fast this game really changes, last night i was in a horrible mood (so SORRY to everyone i dragged in my last confessionals my feelings were hurt and i was moody i take it back! especially telling augusto to listen to jlo that was just CRUEL. howvever it was because i thought it was game over me, i saw this major alliance form right in front of my eyes that i was on the outs in, and with the help of AJ, i was able to just maybe infiltrate and create my own counter alliance with some of the people from that majority who just might like me a little bit more. Even if i get voted out tonight, i can go out with my head held high now because even if these people are playing me, ive tried my best and attempted to make some form of a move even if the move is just saving myself, i wanted to maybe work with austin but however i dont see it in the stars for us anymore This is why ive worked hard on maintaining steady social relationships, this right here, because today i made an offical alliance chat with Me, AJ, Augusto, and Amir, and while i definitely still have my doubts about Augusto/Amir, right now im stuck with them. If i want to survive this vote, i need to see if i can trust them, if they are legit about being real to my proposed alliance instead of their other one, theyll vote with me tonight and we'll take baby steps and go from there. I absolutely have been playing the pity card, with all of them and even kendall. I'm making sure people think im just this nice funny person who wants to play the game and have a shot, which is true, but im willing to do anything to stay, its just funny to me how last night i was having a breakdown over everyone saying im a threat and wanting me out, and i didnt completely get it at first, but you know what if the vote really doesnt fall on me tonight and i somehow survive, then maybe theyre right and maybe i am a threat if i can help to flip this whole tribe in a matter of hours. I even begun platning seeds against kendall because i know she was throwing my name around and you most certainly wont get away with that sis. I begun telling people she refused to vote for austin, because she did, she foolishly told me that and now im gonna use it against her. I dont think I can pull off voting her out this round, i need to focus on saving myself, but just know she's awoken the beast and i have her in my future sights. pray for me yall, im playing every single card i can in what could be a hopeless last ditch effort. But i think my odds of staying may really be going up, unless these people are just THAT good at being fake then....they got me gal.

This tribal council is really about to raise my blood pressure huh? Its crazy cause I am quite confident I am not going home tonight, I would say most of the tribe as well feels that way and most i think should. As far as im concerned Myself, Dan (whose immune duh), Ali, Jakey and even TJ knows that its gonna be one of the Liams. Liam is aware that hes at risk cause hes been innactive and is throwing out lovelis name. Lovelis, I think doesnt know hes at risk, which is dumb cause he has not had a good social game so far and just thinks its easy on Liam. It might not be though, Liam has been ramping up his game a bit to try to stay safe (my advice to him of course) and I think it may be working. Obviously I know I can trust Liam and in most other circumstances i think I would work with him without question, however because this is a main season and he played in survivor jordan pines, its such an easy link to us that I just worry how it might affect ME down the road. Obviously if I can keep Liam safe tonight I will, but I am not fighting a hard fight to keep someone who may eventually be a detriment to my game whereas lovelis could be a lot of different possibilites. Im unsure where the road goes now, I think I am gonna call with my alliance of Ali Jakey and Dan later to try to think of a name, we just need to make a decision between the two already so I know which i should be priming up to be a goat for me and which I should cut loose haha.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LHsOiuD0RNMuor24fzziE04b_iTVsFRD/view?usp=sharing

okay so my video confessional is uploading but i think liam lovelis is doomed! he seems like a king but he needed to put in work to stay this round and i dont think he did unfortunately :(

well, in a sick turn of events, we did NOT swap tribes! in fact we were punished for god knows what as all tribes were required to go to tribal, so immunity was individual! the challenge itself was HELL and i am not going to talk about it other than the fact that i literally could've won if i didn't fuck up the second time. thankfully amir won, so i'm happy! going into tribal, however, i was in the mood to vote either austin or connor. i've kinda connected with everyone else on the tribe totally to the point where i don't want to vote them off right now, and while both are amazing, i ain't really CLICKING with them like that. but to be fair, they both have outside priorities like work and school so i can excuse the lack of conversation. i assumed initially that it was going to be a matter of no one wanting to step on any toes, so there'd just be a bunch of "oh i haven't heard anything yet" and beating around the bush, BUT kendall swooped in and declared our challenge chat from the last immunity (which consisted of her/me/augusto/amir/connor) an alliance, to which we all agreed. obviously i wasn't gonna turn it down! these were people who i really vibed with! it just sucks that someone like adam was a victim of circumstance and isn't able to be able to be apart of the alliance. we all (bar connor) hopped on call to discuss a vote and while it seemed like austin was gonna be the initial vote based off of what everyone was saying, ADAM ended up being the target that night. i played along and just went with it but i knew i had to do something since i wasn't gonna let adam go out like that. i tried to wave the caution of a potential idol play by bringing up the tomb system and how i cracked the code (per adam's hard work), but at the time it only pushed that vote further! we were under the impression that adam was throwing around connor's name, but on the contrary it was austin from what we've gauged. adam went to augusto i believe and brought up that he's heard connor, which only could've came from austin! this is where the conversation itself started to take a turn, so the vote went from adam to adam(?). everyone dispersed and like 5 minutes later i called adam DJKALSJFKJ. i had to let him know what was going on! he, of course, began panicking and started plotting on how he'd bounce back from this and i was a little weary at first. one thing i didn't want him to do was throw me under the bus or snap, it wouldn't his or my game for that matter. so i suggested he try to craft an alliance with myself, augusto, and amir. while he doesn't really trust the latter and plans on flipping in the event a swap comes, i knew that it'd be way harder for the vote to NOT be adam if he put them in this kind of position that austin isn't offering them. i went to sleep and when we woke up, kendall proposed another call! thankfully, she suggested flipping to austin, to which augusto and i agreed, because honestly adam does NOT deserve to be the first person gone from this tribe. so like that the vote went from adam to austin and things were pretty cemented, with it not changing as of the time i'm writing this. we're currently under the impression that austin is voting connor, which is fine since we got connor's blessing to keep his name out there since we DID here it, and it's best to keep adam feeling safe. ugh the way i was expecting a HEADACHE this morning if things didn't start the change like oh brother... bless up. p.s. chrissy hofbeck let me DOWN. i love that queen but she replied to my dm for the first challenge which was almost over a week ago today?! wow chrissy.

So we're just a couple hours until tribal; essentially the whole tribe has agreed to do Lovelis at this point, and now somehow Lovelis knows that Liam had been targeting him. A couple people think that Ali is the reason why, but there's a chance it was me who actually is at fault because I confirmed it to Lovelis after he asked a second time, but I'm not going to full out admit that there was a chance that it was me (other than explaining the first half of my convo) because people doubting Ali is actually going to be kind of decent for my game. Ali is a huge threat moving forward and I trust Jakey, Dan, and Jordan more than him at the moment, so if it poses some doubt... it may not be the worst thing in the world. Russell hat might be out today ;)

okay so i have a video confessional uploading but i unfortunately think liam lovelis is going home! i love him so much he is so lovely, but i think he didn't put the work he needed to, to stay. would love to work with him in a different game, in a different situation but am sad it wasn't to be. i love my brawn men and i'm SO SAD that we are probably going to be separated. also im so sick and alyssa is gonna wonder who the old crone wheezing on call is and its me

So I won immunity hehehehe we love being masc and winning comps. But anyway I’m happy I’m safe going into the triple tribal. It’s all I really wanted. Should be an easy vote. Lovelis is just like not around enough. And he’s connected to TJ, so it will be nice having TJ somewhat to myself without distraction? That’s probably not actually the truth but let’s pretend it is.

Adam wants to make an alliance with me and Augusto and Aj, but like, fuck. It’s too late. The 3 of us are already with Connor and Kendall, but Adam is being genuine and honest with us and it’s just really sad that this is the way this has to go down. If I was in his position I’d be so sad, so it’s making this game hard, but the logical part of me knows that eliminating him at this moment is the right move . I haven’t played these games in almost 3 years, and I know that you have to be a predator in this game, not prey, and you can’t let your emotions stop you from positioning yourself as best as possible. Do what u gotta do and feel bad later ! But for the record, I do feel damn awful for this , sorry adam

What in the fuck I literally woke up and my alliance wants to KEEEEP ADAMMMMMM KDJDJDSNSJSNKDNDKDDNDND AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I CANNOT TELL IF IM HAPPY OR PISSED OFFFFFF I can work with Adam, and I can be tight with him, but the alliance known that Adam told me about numbers on the blog and i made ppl think he has the idol, so as long as Kendall Augusto and Aj don’t spill those beans to Adam, him staying is still okay in my game, this just puts me in a slight risk zone, it’s a loose end And I don’t really know how to go about it I’m not gonna try and convince them to remove Adam when he obviously trusts me Kendall is a damn crackhead I love her tho like in a weird way I really do trust her??? I feel like I can read her pretty well I literally can’t go to sleep without my alliance changing fucking everything I CANT SLEEEEP ever again huh Chile... tbis is our first vote and I’m ??

is it against the rules to go to my alliance members houses one by one and jump them?

Amir u stupid ass bitch... dipping my hands into too many cookie jars i got close with adam and then distanced from him cuz he was leaving and now i got to get closer again cuz hes staying. but adam likes me and augusto the most on the tribe i think me and augusto are the closest with everyone on our tribe and that makes him my biggest social threat, but hes also my closest ally so like this is good at this stage, we have a lot of pull

youtube

okay so this twist is crazy and i'll like properly articulate my thoughts tomorrow but all i want to say is everytime autumn messages me i get such a rush of seretonin - wow do i stan her.

These are my pre-triple tribal thoughts https://youtu.be/18jIBeTw_lY

Well well it seems these bitches haven't got rid of me yet. I don't feel they will give me a chance to actually be back in the game but I'm gonna fight my ass off to try. I love the game and I dont go down easy. I'll kiss ass or do whatever I have to do to save myself . Tumblr survivor gods please please please be with me

hey you guys its me adam and im coming to you from the survivor afterlife because they succeeded and just voted me ou- wait.... wait a minute, wait what?? the hator beauties DIDNT vote me out?????? GORL i am counting my blessings that my dumbass somehow survived the first vote, ESPECIALLY after finding out my name was not only thrown out there, but that it was a LOCKED plan. Literally sent me into a whole tizzy and caused me to doubt my self worth because i felt so bad about my gameplay but BITCH, i still got it. Yes, the rumors are true, you CANT kill a bad bitch. MANY THANKS TO AJ. I absolutely give credit where credit is due, if it weren't for aj telling me about the plan to get me out, i never would have played as hard as i did today, before i went to bed last night i basically talked to everyone, kendall/amir/augusto and was just making sure they all heard me out, i played up big time that i wanted to just be here for the team, and how BADLY i wanted to be able to play with loyal people, especially when i made the alliance chat for me/amir/augusto/aj because aj told me they did say theyd be open to an alliance with me so i think me doing all that and then of course aj's impact from the inside definitely lead everyone to change their minds and so then today the plan was shifted to austin i didnt want to vote austin honestly, but at that point it was me or him and my instincts always are fine with it, AS LONG AS IT AINT ME. PERIOD. They absolutely made the wrong choice though, because especially LEARNING all the information i did, ill never trust a single person on this tribe again, except aj, and i will absolutely be looking for the cracks and to possibly flip in. also after tribal , we got bombarded with this twist, SOMEONE IS COMING BACK FROM ONE OF THESE 3 TRIBALS???AND WE'RE ON A ONE WORLD BEACH NOW??? gorl its time to get to WORK, immediately upon entering this beach with everyone, austin messages ALL the beauties swearing he wants to work with us still if we bring him back- but then goes and messages EVERY other person, and here's the best part- INCLUDING THE OTHER PEOPLE VOTING TO COME BACK IN AJFSDKH LIKE WHAT HE ASKED DEVON TO VOTE HIM BACK IN I WAS SCREAMING austin, thank you for showing the beauties we made the right choice, and hopefully we pull it off and you dont come back, sorry nothing against you though!!! im immediately leaning towards bringing devon back, because well the brains are just not really a threat at the moment and the last thing we need is braun gaining a number on us. Austin also told me my name was an option for the vote from tribal, which i completely was aware of but had to act like i didnt know because i didnt want aj exposed, HOWEVER now that austin has brought this up i can freely mention it to whomever now, so i immediately bring it up in my chat with amir/augusto and lemme tell yall.... ive never heard a silence quite this loud. whats wrong? yall dont wanna be honest with me about having a whole alliance just to conspire to vote me out????? this was a test from me, i gave them the oppurtunity to come clean and they refused. it shows me i clearly cant trust them, but again, until i know what the hell is going on in this game now, im stuck with them until i can make a move against them. kendall also came to me saying "hey can i ask you something" so i go sure gal whats the tea and she asks me "was i an option for the vote because austin said i was" so i was like omg no! of course not!!! because realistically she wasnt, even though she absolutely shouldve been for daring to raise her tongue against me IM ONTO YOU SIS... i know exactly what shes doing, she knows austin is telling me i was an option so shes probably hoping by telling me that i wont believe austin, but silly girl, i already knew about all yall's trifling ways!!! anyway, send fucking help we need it, the beauties are the FAKEST group on this island. im having better conversations with people from the other tribes i dont even know during this one world twist... also was able to catch up with jakey....that was interesting, we always have great convos because like we just know each other so well, and he's acting like he's forgivven and forgotten about challengers vs. champions, but i know him well enough to know he's NOT going to trust me this game because well...if i were him i absolutely wouldnt trust me either, we're kinda like parvati/amanda in hvv. Ill keep him on my backburner, incase we swap and im with him i at least want a fighting chance, if i HAVE to work with him but i probably will end up having to target him because i know him all too well and how he plays, its dangerous for EVERYONE. (but mostly for me, which is what's most important)

Of course it wasn't a swap! That would be too easy!!!!!!!!! No we had to make it as dramatic as fucking possible and vote some sap back into the game!!!! UGH Well, at least this gives us all time to scout out the competition. And believe you me it has taken a lot of will power to not compulsively make another alliance. I mean, I did, but like with Jordan Pines so that doesn't count. I have reunited with my Survivor Dad Scott, my pizza molester friend Liam, former Gorlley Duncan, and my former arch enemy Jakey. I say former but Jakey clearly doesn't see me that way. He still had me on block and allegedly the first thing he messaged Adam was if "it was safe to unblock me". Like dude, Neverland was 4 years ago get a grip. I mean yeah, I'm playing up the arch enemy aspect on my side but that's more for my own amusement/Adam's loyalty. I genuinely didn't have an opinion on him anymore. I mean, I do NOW but I assure you it is purely built on self defense. Admittedly, I wasn't on my best behavior during that time and I will apologize for it but damn dude keep my name out of your mouth. Speaking of people who won't shut the fuck up, we have Austin!!!!!! He has made a point to swear loyalty to Brains, Brawn and Beauty. Which I get you have only 24 hours to find safety but like do better. He also told Adam that we were targeting him at first tribal council, which is admittedly accurate but also incredibly inconvenient for the rest of us. Luckily Adam seems to hold us in higher regard plus I miggghhhhhtttttt have lied to him a wittle wit in order to make him doubt Austin. 9:49 PM Hey can I ask you a question? Adam, 9:52 PM omg of course 9:53 PM Was I an option for last tribal? Adam, 9:53 PM omg 9:53 PM It’s okay if I was but you have to tell me if my name was written down Adam, 9:54 PM absolutely not??? like im not even joking i did not HEAR your name once or even consider you myself and if anyone else did they never said it to me did austin tell you that? I know every season I'm very insistent on how evil I am but I genuinely believe this season I've crossed several ethical boundaries. Like damn, I voted out my first game ally, I tricked both AJ and Adam into thinking they are in a position of power, and now this bullshit? I genuinely hope that this doesn't blow up in my face cause it very well could but if it doesn't... well now I have a spare ally. So obviously Austin is not coming back under any circumstances. Which leaves the two other schmucks: Lovelis and Devon. Lovelis has yet to message me anything and Devon has been a fun conversation. So... as you can see this is going to be a very tough call. I am going to have to pray on it :/. What's that Survivor Jesus? You think we should save Devon? Ehhhh let me talk to Survivor Buddha first, I'll get back to you.

just as much i know yall wish i would shut up these people CONTINUE TO TRY ME AND PUSH MY BUTTONS AND I CANT TRUST ANYONE CLEARLY SO I HAVE TO COME HERE TO RUN MY BIG MOUTH basically, i wake up this morning and while i know austin is just on a beauty tribe crusade throwing us all under the bus to try and get the votes back in, which i completely cant blame him for anyone considering we all did blindside him, HOWEVER i decided to message him again this morning and try and get some more tea out of him, i figure if he's hear i may as well hear him out now, in no way shape or form do i plan on voting for him to come back into the game, but i want this information for my own good, so i decide to ask him who all was telling him to vote for me and what was said, and he tells me that kendall, amir, and augusto all said my name AND that apparently they were calling me a rat too?? now, i know, he's desperate so he'll say whatever, but i firmly believe there's usually a little truth to every lie, so upon finding this out i decide im sick of holding it in, so i message augusto and amir to basically call them out. i wanted to play it very carefully because once again its a test of trust, are they gonna be upfront with me and let me know i was on the chopping block, even if they were considering voting for me as long as they told me, id possibly be able to move foward with them, but again, just like last night, i mention it today and i get LIED TO. augusto wants to play dumb and say "omg i never said that! why would i ever say that about you?!" well idk, why would you act like you're my friend and wanna work with me only to join a super alliance behind my back and make a plan to vote me out? he's lied to my face now more than once and so with that, CANCELLED. Amir at least told me he heard my name but guess what he obviously wasnt gonna do it, which is still a lie i know they all agreed to my name because of aj, but at least amir didnt completely undermine my intelligence and lie to me about it. THESE PEOPLE REALLY THINK IM ADAM THE CLOWN, ADAM THE FOOL, ADAM THE DUMMY WHO CANT FIGURE ANYTHING OUT, WELL GUESS WHAT BEAUTIES. I DID. i completely feel like sandra on the villains tribe, i cant STAND these people anymore and what annoys me more than them lying to me, is them thinking theyre clever enough to trick me with this stupid ass lie kendall made up about how austin was saying the vote was on her like gorl plea we still have a few hours on this one world beach, so i decide now is my time to START planting seeds to make my move. i have to be extremely careful here, because while the beautiues have completely enraged me and awoke the beast within, im absolutely gonna return their fakery with absolutely fraudulentism. yall wanna lie to me? ok game on, ill lie 10x as hard to you now. i obvioulsy want to just blow my top and make them feel stupid because i know theyre lying, but i have to be smart, for all i know after this person comes back, we could very well head to our same tribes still, or i end up with a beauty majority and i need them to think im with them .. BUT GOOD GOD PLEASE GIVE ME A TRIBE SWAP, AT THIS POINT ID PROBABLY GET MORE STIMULATING CONVERSATIONS WITH TREES THAN THIS TRIBE. Whoever told them they were beautiful people actually lied to them because theyre all UNQUALIFIED to be on the beautys. at this point i want devon to come back, ive had nice little convos with him and im trying to talk to all the brains to be quite honest because, if it were up to me, i would absolutely flip and work with the brains if they would allow me to work with them because clearly i cant trust the beauties???? HELL, I MIGHT EVEN HAVE TO WORK WITH JAKEY IF HE'D TRUST ME JUST BECAUSE I OBVIOUSLY CANT TRUST THEM??? the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and at this point, the beauties are my enemy. im really hoping my big mouth doesnt get me in trouble because i could be talking to these brains and they very well could go behind my back to the other beauties and im voted off soon, but im hoping they just realize based on the convos im trying to have with them, that im absolutely open to flipping, the beauties may be the devil i know but id rather go home trying to make a move rather than just sitting on the bottom waiting to be picked off, and if the beauties think im gonna just be that person, they made a grave mistake in not voting me out then. If youre gonna throw my name out there, vote me out because i guarantee once i hear it, ill never trust you again. in conclusion, this video about sums up how i feel about the rest of the beauties: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_iM4Z8FkQg

Jeff Probst Voice: And meanwhile on One World Jakey teaches Kendall how food delivery works. djfadklajdkfajkfdjafklds; I feel like a bit of an ass. Me and Jakey talked it over, turns out neither of us entirely remember what our feud was about. We also agreed to be a secret duo while playing up our 'alleged" animosity. I'm keeping him at arms length because I don't entirely trust him but he's easy to talk to, and who am I to decline a free ally. Austin meanwhile continues to spiral further. I feel kind of bad honestly but not enough to save him. He apparently told Adam that we called him a rat? Which, we did a lot of things to Adam but nothing directly disparaging his personality. He's a really pleasant and nice person, he's so pleasant and nice everyone else in the alliance was super reluctant to vote for him while his name was on the table. Which was kind of infuriating at the time but now that we are dealing with this shit storm it's a nice quality. Devon is laying it on thick with me. He has said shit like "I'm rooting for you in the VL" and " I obviously want YOUR trust more than anything in this game" okay that one in hindsight could be a reference to needing a vote. On the other hand he's been very straightforward about not making any promises and I really respect that. It's interesting how everyone wants him back, including the people who voted him out. Which makes me curious, did they plan for this? Lovelis is still a non entity... tribal is in like an hour and fifteen minutes you think he'd pop in with a sup or something? In terms of the idol talk, Jordan and I have compared notes. I told him that Adam probably has it and he told me everyone on his tribe knew about the numbers. So... if we switch it up or go back we can double check and look to see if it's there. I don't entirely trust people on the outside. Don't get me wrong I get along splendidly with Brain and 4 out of the 6 Brawn players seem to enjoy my company. But my loyalty first and foremost belongs to the beauties. You know that, I know that, now let's keep them from figuring that part out. ;)

okay so, i survived my first tribal. my anxiety was really acting up and i like astral-projected during it, but i survived which is what counts. i've tried to take today off because i dont want this game to be ali has an emotional meltdown the entire time and i think im doing okay. anyway SO liam lovelis went home and i really like him but its also like, he really was not putting in the work to stay, and i really respected Liam M's hustle! so it was what happened, and him fighting Liam M was kinda mean JASKDF like idk what he expected Liam M to do instead, it was just the way things shook out. okay and then we have this crazy twist.. the hosts really really said you are anxious? time to get anxious-er. so we are voting either devon, austin or lovelis back into the game. lovelis has fully gone ghost (at least for me), and i think he is kinda done with the game so i think its gonna be between austin and devon. i think devon is who is going to come back, he is handling this perfectly just chilling and being straight up. otherwise so the people i have spoken to since is: Duncan - a king!! he is one of my oldest org friends, he has a different energy now, am determined to prove to him i'm not annoying anymore - loved that he admitted to me he used to find me annoying Augusto - he is really lovely, already clearly MEGA social which is really scary! i like him a lot tho could be a good person in a swap Devon - seems like a king get good energy from him. think he is painting austin as messier than he is and is spreading the narrative of austin making deals but im not fussed austin- seems sweet but idk if he has handled this round right AJ - a king i like his energy!! but yes hopefully devon comes back and i get a good swap... that we pray for

This was such a simple game when I just had me and my cute lil alliance of 4 and that was just 2 days ago.So much has happened in the past 2 days. -Our alliance of 4 creates an alliance of 5 with aj included. -Adam makes a 4 person alliance of me aj and Augusto. - the vote goes to Adam and we all tell everyone it’s Adam, and then it’s changed to a Austin - Austin wants back and to end the beauties. Also exposed us to Adam -Devon wants to come back but brains also want him back, -Duncan wants to work with me -duncan is super tight with Scott and autumn and wants me to get close to them - I’m getting close to jakey, and building a bond with Jordan and dan. - an interesting dynamic is that Duncan doesn’t like Ali, Duncan loves autumn, and autumn loves Ali. - Adam and jakey are also at odds

OH MY FUCKING GODDDDD I JUST ... HAD AN EPIPHANY AND IM PROBABLY BEING INSANE, but i think... i think that adam and aj are super close and have a final 2. The vote was originally adam, but the night after we told aj, adam compaigned hard and we all changed our minds. Furthermore, they both knew about the idol system. FURTHERMORE, adam was like "i feel like im missing out on so much" during the unscramble challenge but he had no way of knowing we were all on call. They both know l'shei, they both have the same emoji in their name, they both just replied to me saying something similar at the same time. It is basically all coming together in my head and long story short, we fucked up. Augusto, connor, and kendall have no idea how much we really fucked up but this all could be me making shit up but idk idk ahahahahahahhahahahhahahahaha we r FUCKED AJ HAS AN ALLIANCE WITH ME AND AUG KEND CONNOR IF HE TOLD ADAM LMAAOOOOO WE R FUCKKEDDD

WHEW this game, this game. Y'all have taken me on so many emotions in the past 48 hours I couldn't even stop to processing winning Survivor Reels lmaaaaooo. Y'all really had me do that ugly counting challenge, where I messed up twice and ended up with 5 points only for my Skype to stop working for a good 2+ hours. Then Scott won immunity, which meant I had to kill either my dad Duncan or my bb Devon, which was super darksided. THEN after all that and saying my dramatic ass goodbyes, y'all pull out a buyback??? https://i.imgur.com/kQ6umpV.gif BUT ITS OK BECAUSE NOW I GET TO KEEP BOTH AND THE DADS ARE STILL TOGETHER!!! Devon is staying and we been knew. You know I love him if I'm not even mad that he voted me so everyone remember this moment cause that's usually grounds for dismissal in my world. But ugh I'm so happy y'all don't even know. I've really hit it off with a few people too so I'm just feeling myself. I fucking love Augusto we are the same person no lie and I'm also a big fan of Adam, Jakey, and Amir. So even if I get separated from the dads, I can make this work. I'm ready to swap and I just gotta keep misting man after man which I can definitely handle https://media1.tenor.com/images/fe32b9e859965acabe245a41b77e2153/tenor.gif?itemid=4608580

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBquewn3tnw

#BackWithVengeance

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themoneybuff-blog · 6 years ago

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Nine Secrets of Successful Homebuyers

A popular real estate website recently compiled a list of the six habits all successful homebuyers have in common. As someone whos approaching the one-year anniversary of owning my own home, I found the topic fascinating. Not because I possessed so many of the habits outlined. But for the opposite reason. When I purchased my house, I winged it, for the most part. I didnt do a lot of research about the home buying process. I also did not shop around extensively for mortgages, which was mistake number one. Nor did I shop around for real estate agents (lesson learned!), or tour a long list of houses. Though I looked at dozens of properties online, I only did two or three actual walk-throughs before settling on the home I purchased. Reading about the habits of all successful homebuyers, which were mostly financial habits, made me wonder how much different my outcome might have been had I seen the list ahead of time and adopted the behaviors outlined. I also felt the list was far too narrowly focused and left a lot out. While I didnt possess all of the attributes mentioned, I brought other skills to the table that werent included, which helped me successfully purchase a home in Southern California, one of the most competitive and high-priced real estate markets in the country. All of which inspired me to solicit opinions from a broad group of real estate agents from across the country to do my own survey of what makes a successful homebuyer, beyond just the financial habits. Heres what the agents I polled had to say. Secret #1: Successful homebuyers are goal-oriented. One of the top-selling real estate brokers in New York City, Sheila Trichter of Warburg Realtyhas 25 years of experience working in the Manhattan market, another one of the priciest and most competitive places in the country. According to Trichter, the most successful buyers know what they want and they pursue that goal with their actions. That means, Trichter explains, that such buyers are actively working toward their goal regularly, beginning with familiarizing themselves with the market and then staying on top of new listings. They should be regularly looking and know what the market is like, said Trichter. That doesnt mean they need to be on every single real estate app every day, but they need to pay attention. And the more specific a buyer they are, the more they have to pay attention, because things come and go. This skill even applies to first-time homebuyers, says Dana Bull, a Boston area realtor who specializes in helping those new to the buying process. The most important thing I see in first-time buyers, in particular, that makes them successful is their ability to plan and strategize, said Bull. Buyers who get what they want, or recognize a great deal when they see it, are usually those who have spent a lot of time researching the market, including touring a home even if they think its not for them so that theyre completely aware of whats out there, what its selling for, and where the opportunities may lie. Secret #2: Theyre organized, too. Having your act together as a homebuyer takes on many forms, says Snezhana Conway, of Washington D.C.-based Snezhana Homes Group of Keller Williams Capital Properties. Buyers who are organized from the very beginning are attending the homebuyers seminars to learn about the homebuying process, theyre collecting a file of their favorite home styles and amenities, and theyre organized with their personal finances such as tax returns and pay-stubs, said Conway. Being organized also means ensuring your credit score is mortgage-ready well in advance of the purchase, and carefully determining what sort of home budget youre comfortable with, says real estate agent John Myers, of Myers & Myers Real Estate, in Albuquerque, N.M. Having your finances in order makes the homebuying decision much easier, said Myers, noting that this habit allows purchasers to clearly understand exactly how much they want to spend and to stick to that budget. Secret #3: They avoid excess debt and pay bills on time. Another critical note on personal finances: Your credit score will have a huge impact on the mortgage youre able to qualify for, potentially costing (or saving) you tens of thousands of dollars over time. And most lenders want to see a low debt-to-income ratio. So successful homeowners understand that this is not the time to start opening a variety of new credit cards, running up balances, or making late payments on your bills, said Trichter. Running up a lot of debt will make it more difficult to buy a home, explained Trichter. So, successful homebuyers dont go into every store that offers 10% off on a purchase if you get their credit card and open an account. All those [new] credit cards lower your credit score. You dont want to be a person with a credit card in every store in town, thats not really keeping finances in order. And they dont close credit cards, because that lowers your credit score. Secret #4: They stay realistic. Successful homebuyers have sensible expectations and clearly understand what their home needs are. This is not fantasy, this is a reality, said Trichter. Sure, you want to dream and have your home be wonderful, with bells and whistles. But only the bells and whistles you can afford. To that end, its important to define exactly what it is you want and, more importantly, what you actually need, says Michael Schaffer, broker and owner of Denver-based Reason Real Estate. This effort should also include narrowing down the geographic area youll consider to a realistically manageable area. It should not be the entire major metropolitan area, said Schaffer. This way you wont be so overwhelmed with the listings that you wont be able to give adequate consideration to any of them. Ultimately, buyers who understand the concept of balance and keeping their homeownership goals practical will usually make the most rational decisions throughout the buying process, added, Amanda Martin, of Fort Lauderdale-based The Real Estate Shoppe. Secret #5: Theyre not afraid of a certain amount of risk. As with any major financial decision, buying a home presents a certain amount of risk. And while you absolutely need to do your due diligence, Trichter says, successful homebuyers dont dwell on what-ifs or allow doubts to paralyze their decision-making. There are plenty of risks. And people shouldnt take undue risks they should be sure they can afford the house, and that its not sitting on a swamp, Trichter said. But there are certain people who say What if the sky falls in? What if theres a terrorist attack? What if the banks fail? Buying a home involves some risk, and you need to be comfortable with that. Secret #6: Theyre careful about choosing a real estate agent. Dont make the same mistake I did and choose the first real estate agent who comes along. In my case, that decision turned into a nightmare worthy of another story. If I had to do it again, I probably would have listened to the recommendations of good friends who provided glowing reviews of Realtors they had worked with, because my personal belief is that a recommendation from a friend whos had a good experience is invaluable. Gary Lucido, president of Chicago-based Lucid Realty, says a real estate agent should have certain key attributes. Get a really smart Realtor. Not the top producer. Not a self-proclaimed neighborhood expert. Not someone with signs all over the neighborhood. Not a neighbor, relative, or friend. But someone who is resourceful, knowledgeable, and responsive, said Lucido. Secret #7: They shop for a mortgage early. Mortgage shopping should be done early in the search process, not after youve laid eyes on the home you absolutely must have. For one thing, getting preapproved helps you know for sure how much house you can afford. And in a competitive housing market, youll generally need a letter of preapproval from your lender if you want to stand a chance in a multiple-offer situation. Plus, shopping for a mortgage before you absolutely need one will give you time to find the very best rates. Once you have a contract, you need to move quickly to get your mortgage, and you dont have time to shop around, said Lucido. Embarking on mortgage shopping early also allows buyers time to thoroughly educate themselves about the various types of financial products available, noted Luke Babich, co-founder of the nationwide referral brokerage Clever Real Estate, and a licensed real estate agent in Missouri. Secret #8: They set aside enough time for house hunting. The market moves fast, and buying a house isnt like picking out a new coffeemaker on Amazon. So if youre serious about your search, Conway says, its a good idea to budget time every week or weekend to see homes. Schedule the time in advance with your real estate agent, she adds. No last-minute frantic calls to try to squeeze showings in. Secret #9: They think long-term. When searching for a home, think about where you might want to be in five, 10, or 20 years, and how this purchase might help get you there, says Bull. A great buy thats not a long-term fit might be perfect for now and make a fantastic rental down the road or allow you to sell high and upgrade, said Bull. Having that vision helps buyers make informed decisions. The Bottom Line This is by no means an exhaustive list. But nearly all the Realtors I spoke to agreed that there are indeed some fairly consistent habits among home buyers who are ultimately the most successful. And while having your finances in order is a tremendous help, being organized, informed, prepared, and engaged during a home search will also play a vital role in making your homebuying experience a good one. These habits are important because a real estate transaction can take all the time you have and can be at times stressful, said Conway. And by starting smart and making the right choices, you can eliminate or reduce those instances of fatigue, failure, or heartbreak, including missed dream homes, broken contracts, unethical Realtors, and not being ready to buy financially and emotionally. Read more: https://www.thesimpledollar.com/five-secrets-of-successful-home-buyers/

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survivormarmoreal · 6 years ago

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Episode #8: "The fajitas are truly guiding me" - Matt

OMG i made it to the merge. Im so happy but now let the game begin.

im so sad. dennis was such a king. and to be taken out by nick... like idek what to do with this merge. ppl i want to work with: nathan, maynor, brian, anna?, matt? idek if i wanna work with brian its just i like meeting new ppl NNN i wanna work with sharky too. but like nathan loves nick apparently. like... no ty!!! nicole... keaton? no ty! my preferred boot order is just keaton. nick. nicole. thats it idc!!! i dont wanna work with like og absolem tho bc theyre all tight without me but the other options arent good either EFKJDSAHKJ. i am waiting for redemption island twist pls and ty although my luck jaydne comes back NNn well these are initial thoughts woohoo

PHEWWWWWW I MADE MERGE BITCHES!!!!!! Honestly that tribal was so fucking cracked and all kicked off in 20 mins at the end with nick revealing he had an idol. and YEET i was so close to playing my idol as well. The fajitas are truly guiding me (even tho i am eating them tomorrow for lunch and I am very excited hehehe) Brian, myself and sharky are gonna align (tho not telling about the idol tho) so woooo lets go merge!

I hate my life. a forced self vote? no thanks. UGH TIME TO DIE!

WE FUCKING MERGED! And I got rid of Dennis. Which I do feel slightly bad about it but it was time to make a move. I playing loose this season and I'm going to see how far it takes me. I have alliances with Maynor, Brian, Nathan, Annabelle, Matt, Nick, and sort of Nicole so that puts me in a pretty good spot as long as I don't overplay and show my cards too soon. I've got to walk the line very carefully. And ngl careful is not my strong suit.

Ok now Let's rank my mergemates. 1) Brian- husband. 2) Matt- second husband. 3) Maynor- best man at my double wedding to Matt and Brian. 4) Annabelle- my fave underrated queen. 5) Nathan- I love him but check back in a few rounds ok. 6) Bryce- we barely talked but he loves Chi Chi Devayne so...I love him. 7) Nicole- ...every season needs a purple edit 8) Nick- cool kid but I'm sooo bitter about wanting him gone 3 tribals in a row 9) Keaton- who?

Well, merge is finally here and i get to reunite with Sharky. Which is great because he was my duo from the begining and now i have Keaton as my other duo.i also have Bryce as well. Nathan wants to work with keaton and I so thats good and i believe he’s tight with Annabelle so shell come along as well. Thats already 5 with me is 6. As long as none of them are targeted first vote and others are. Ill be sitting in a good spot. From here the first vote, i wouldnt mind voting out Nicole. Only one to yet to talk to me besides saying hi.

WEELLLLL!!! I merged, ladies (and lads)! I cannot believe it, but I have made it!! I think I know what my strong points are right now in my game and I just have to keep playing on them. I'm a lot stronger socially now and I want that to continue going into the merge. I have allies in every single little aspect of this game, and I want to ensure the people I'm not working with go first. So less than half of these hoes better watch their backs!

Now that I've merged and have freedom with who I want to work with, I'm definitely going to try and solidify my quad-some with Sharky, Nathan, and Annabelle as a final 4 alliance and also make sure that my other final alliances (one with Bryce, who I just met up with, and then one with Matt) also are stronger than ever before.

I usually do like cast run-downs and... idk... I haven't yet in this game, but I guess I will now going into the merge!!

Annabelle - A queent!! I absolutely love her and wish that a trio of Ariana stans (with Marie) could've gone through!! I can't wait to strengthen my bond with her and for us to slay this game together! Bryce - I may have just met Bryce in game, but I've known him for a little bit! We have never really had a full-on conversation, but we have talked in passing and in some League games. I've talked to him for like... 30 minutes so far... and he's already a top person in this game for me. Love him! Keaton - idk him, but he's already trash talked Marie to me... so .... bye ! Matt - I adore him... he's... an angel! I see myself working with him for a long time in this game, and I have to hope he feels the same hehe... Maynor - eh! I like him, but we don't.... click... so if he goes home... he goes home... :S... Nathan - LOVE HIM! He's so funny and so nice and he says we have a final 2, but girl... if we get to final 2 together it's by sheer luck because I shoreeee as hell know he's going hard or going home.... and I'm not playing that same balls to the walls type of game! Nick - LOL OK??? Idols replace social play and gameplay ig!!! Nicole - I just wish she was more active because I'd love to really put all my trust in her, but I don't really ever talk to her! Sharky - ANGEELLLL!!! Das my game hubby... I adore him so much... I really thought I was going to go into this game wanting to fuck him up with a lawn mower, but here I am putting all my eggs into his basket and trusting him completely... I hope I'm making the right decision! I know he's a big threat, but I just lahva him a lot! Ugh..

This challenge is very interesting. Im just hoping that I somehow get enough points to get the high amount. Immunity would be great. Still working out who i could work with and who i would target. I know for sure that im going to be with Keaton and Sharky. Still dont know about the others yet.

I do not want this immunity. There's like weird touchy subjects vibes. If I win it means a lot of people wanted me to get immunity so I'm well liked which will translate to "Threat". I told the jock destroyers to give me negative items. So hopefully if my other allies give me positive scores it will even out to a smooth 0 and I can stay relatively under the radar.

So I went idol hunting and I got closer than I had ever gotten before. I could just tell. So I gave Brian the info and told him where I went wrong. And he didn't find the idol but he DID find a steal a vote advantage! So Brian and I are getting a nice little tool belt around our waists. Now we just need to get all these people to do what we want.

Everyone is being really quiet. But thats okay because this gives Maynor and I a great opportunity to strategize. To my surprise he threw out Nicole's name! Which is great. It might be too soon to go for her because I've been talking Dinah strong for a few rounds now (even though I voted Dennis out). But it's still good to know that she's on his radar. Now the goal is just to set up a F5 alliance that Brian and I can ride to F6. Maynor and I still have The Scream Team alliance and I'm loyal to that. So if I can move forward with Maynor and Brian then I can just fill in the others as we go.

Okay SWIFT UPDATE. Maynor brought up Matt's name and I was basically like "Um...I don't want to do that" and then discovered that he doesn't think Nicole has his back at all. Which would undermine any Dinah strong stuff. And I'm not going to stick my neck out to save her over a vote on my side for a few more rounds. Especially if she might flip anyway. Hmm…

Now I'm getting a chance to talk game with Anna! This night is really picking up. Unfortunately she seems to have some animosity towards Matt. Why does everyone hate Matt? I think he's bloody awesome! Oh well. She also isn't a fan of Nicole or Keaton so I can direct her target that way for a few votes and for now we seem to be on the same page minus the Matt thing.

Sharky and I are still up at midnight. We came up with a tribal vote plan which is awesome. The target tonight is going to be Nicole. I feel like shes a threat and needs to go. Sharky and I created an ideal final 5 which is me, Sharky, Brian, Matt, amd Bryce. My side alliance is Keaton and Nathan. On the outs is Nick, Annabelle, and Nicole. We are saying that Keaton said Nicole’s name and that Nicole said Keaton’s name. But main targetbis Nicole. Hopefully this plan works and Nicole goes tonight.

Things are falling into place baby! So Maynor wants Nicole/Keaton/Matt out. He thinks he can get Bryce on board. Annabelle also wants Nicole/Keaton/Matt out. I know from The Jock Destroyers Alliance that she (and I) have Nathan's vote. Anna also says she wants to work with Bryce. And Bryce told her that he feels close to Maynor. (I'm realizing Bryce is a HUGE social threat and I'm not going to be able to keep him around for too long but for now he's a number on my side.) Now, both Maynor and Annabelle also love Brian. They both also know I can bring Nick to the table because Nick trusts me. So right now I perfectly situated in the middle of a 7 person voting block. Am I a mastermind?

CLASSIC ANNABELLE. I set up this whole majority situation and told her to choose Keaton or Nicole and we can make it happen. BUT SHE WON'T CHOOSE. I love her but she always does this. She's so about being quiet that she refuses to ever make a move. Last time we played together she said I was a bully and never asked her what she wanted. Now I'm trying to be a better ally and listen to her moves AND SHE WON'T MAKE ANY. So frustrating.

Having Keatons name out was good cuz now he wants to target Nicole because she is the other name thats been thrown out. My alliance of mkn is helping get the votes for Nicole which is great.

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so the names thrown out are keaton or nicole and its looking like nicole is gonna go bc ppl think shes a better player bc she gets far in tumblr games which like i guess is tea but its just sad that meta has a factor :( esp when shes like irrel in this game noah fence KJFADSHKFJAS. and like maynor prob has f2 with keaton.. but idc i guess she ghosts me all the time so w/e. im just hoping next round we can get like someone whos actually a threat out.

I WON IMMUNITY which means I made single digits! I'm so happy with myself... I didn't really do much to deserve it, but I'm so happy I won because it means I can be a little more ballsy this round with throwing out names and whatever!

I'm thinking of voting Keaton out as a sort of revenge for Marie, but Nicole's name is out there, too, and I just really want to make the right move to launch my game into the next round in an even better spot! I feel like the top of the world right now, and I want to keep that high. The immunity challenge showed that even though I think I'm a fucking mess, I'm doing well enough socially.

As for that, I want to quickly add in that I love all my allies so much. Sharky just helped me find a vote steal power which will be so useful for the long run of this game, and I cannot wait to use it to hopefully slay. Nathan and Annabelle are angels and are also really nice for me to bounce ideas off of. Bryce is just amazing to talk to and I really see him in my longterm plan. Matt's another person I see in my longterm plan. Ideally, this is probably my top 6... and I've since grown closer to Nick and we are working together "for the sake of Sharky", but I think he's more-so a side piece for me in this game!

So....I’m pretty certain I’m leaving because nobody wants to talk of anything of substance with me. It’s hard because I know I deserve to go, I haven’t been in a place mentally to give everything I need to, to this game. But that doesn’t mean I want to leave. It’s just hard, Dennis was my number one ally and now that he is gone it’s gonna be hard to reform my trust and alliances with everyone. Oof. It’s alright. Hoping that someone can use me as a vote about now but, don’t think that’s a possibility.

So I am keeping VERY quiet about my disadvantage, as I don't want anyone to know about it and jump on a bandwagon to use it against me! Like no thanks I'll pass. It looks like it'll either be Keaton or Nicole, would much rather it be Anna but she's immune smh. As long as my name ain't mentioned I'll be Gucci I hope. REEEE

Now that everyone is awake it's time to put in some work to execute the plan Anna/Maynor/myself made last night. We need to get everyone on board with voting Nicole. But I also need to make sure Nicole feels safe just in case she has an idol. I'm going to talk to Matt and Nick. As long as they vote Nicole we should be solid. I'm also going to start an alliance chat with the OG Dinah members so that we can talk about strategy and make sure Nicole feels safe with us. Then as long as everyone is telling the truth (cause no one ever lies in Survivor) it'll all be good.

Can i say that Sharky making a fake alliance chat with Nicole when we are planning on voting her out is very cold blooded. Like honesty doing it to try and throw off her scent of the vote is perfect.

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I’m so glad sharky seems to be much more transparent with me. I’m really excited to see how this goes tbh I feel like we’d make a good pair. We be played together before and I thought he would be made at me for like wanting him out in canadienne but yeah I’m excited for merge!

Okay the alliances just keep piling up. It's definitely going to cause an issue later on. But for now it's good. And the newest one, The FB Bois, is one I actually do plan on staying loyal too. I really trust Matt and Brian. I like them both a lot and I want to work with them. Hopefully they feel the same. F4 with Brian, Matt, Maynor is my goal.

We are coming close to tribal. Its nerve wracking cuz it looks like nicole hasnt scrambled so she might have an idol. Im going to see if my side alliance would vote for Matt (keaton and nathan). Just in case there is an idol played. But as far it looks like Nicole is going.

For once my name hasnt been a top priority! its crazy... I really dont know what to do about it but im loving it so much... lets just wait though until I get out in about 30 mins...

Nicole is voted out 6-3-1.

#episode #allmadhere

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jodyedgarus · 6 years ago

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The Super Bowl’s Best Matchup Is Gladys Knight vs. The Clock

Super Bowl LIII is not only about two of the league’s best offenses squaring off against one another — New England and Los Angeles — it’s also about America’s other favorite pastime: gambling. The total amount bet on the Super Bowl1 has risen from $40 million in 1991 to more than $158 million in 2018, and much of that growth has come from “props” or proposition bets.

For readers who aren’t degenerate gamblers, prop bets are wagers you can place on events during a game that don’t directly involve the final outcome. This year there are the standard prop bets, like if the Patriots will score a touchdown in the first quarter (they never have in a Super Bowl), or if the Rams will rush for more than 127.5 yards (they averaged 143.3 yards per game in the regular season and the playoffs). But there are also more exotic prop bets on things like whether Donald Trump will tweet more than six times during the game. (The implied probability on one offshore book is 58 percent that he will hit the over.)

Another interesting wager is on the length of Gladys Knight’s rendition of “The Star-Spangled Banner.” Several offshore books have set the total for the anthem at 1 minute 47 seconds, and the implied odds for both the under and the over were set at one book at -115 — a 53.5 percent implied probability — on both sides.2 The implied probabilities being equal indicates that the book has no real opinion on the length of Gladys’s performance — they just want to take a percentage from each side of the wager and hope bettors will place their bets evenly on both.

But is Knight performing the anthem in over/under 107 seconds really close to a 50 percent proposition? Or is there evidence that might convince us that the oddsmakers got the probabilities wrong?

To find out, I went to Youtube and watched 40 Super Bowl national anthems from 1979 to 2018. I eliminated any anthems with trumpeters (there were two) and then started timing the anthem from the moment the singer first started to sing and ended the timer after the completion of the first utterance of “brave.”3 Using this methodology, the 40-year average of all national anthem singers4 is 106.1 seconds, roughly in line with the total set by the books. So the total is correct so far as the average goes, but it also seems lazy. Surely there are other factors that might help us better predict how long Gladys might sing.

For starters, the performance time of the anthem has changed as the Super Bowl has grown to become the unparalleled cultural phenomenon we now enjoy each year. As the pomp, circumstance and viewership have increased, the time anthem performers spend on the stage has also risen.

So while anthems have gotten longer over time, the 40-year average is not fully accounting for that trend. When you do account for it5 the best forecast for the 2019 anthem is actually 119 seconds, 13 seconds over the 40-year average.

Gender of the anthem singer is also significant. Men tend to sing the anthem more quickly than women — though not many men have sung the anthem in recent years, when the anthems have been getting longer overall. Still, the all-time shortest anthem performance was by a man — the incomparable Neil Diamond — who got in and out like a boss in a cool 61 seconds. And the longest anthem ever performed at a Super Bowl was by the unforgettable Natalie Cole in 1994, which clocked in at a diva-esque 148 seconds.

Finally, Knight herself appears to be a singer who knows how to stretch a note. Using whosampled, I identified 31 covers performed by Knight and timed the cover performance of each using similar criteria to the anthem timing. Knight’s covers were 7 percent longer than the originals on average, good for a bonus 12.7 seconds of soothing soul per track. In perhaps the best comp to the national anthem — “Ave Maria,” a soaring, vocal-heavy standard covered by hundreds of artists — Gladys’ performance was 37 percent longer than the standard version.

Gladys Knight takes her time with interpretations

Difference in song length between Knight’s covers and the original songs

Song Original Artist Difference Feel Like Makin’ Love Roberta Flack +129 sec. The Look of Love Dusty Springfield +85 Yesterday The Beatles +70 Help Me Make It Through the Night Kris Krisofferson +66 Ave Maria Anna Moffo +65 For Once in My Life Barbara McNair +50 Midnight Train to Georgia Cissy Houston +42 The Way We Were Barbara Streisand +36 Fire and Rain James Taylor +33 I’m Gonna Make You Love Me Dee Dee Warwick +30 Groovin’ The Young Rascals +27 The Need to Be Jim Weatherly +13 Average +13 Everybody Needs Love The Temptations +8 You’re the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Me Ray Price +8 Goin’ Out of My Head Little Anthony and the Imperials +7 All I Could Do Is Cry Etta James +2 Baby I Need Your Loving The Four Tops +1 Tracks of My Tears Smokey Robinson & The Miracles 0 Yes, I’m ready Barbara Mason -1 Baby Don’t Change Your Mind The Stylistics -1 I Wish It Would Rain The Temptations -4 Cloud Nine The Temptations -9 Keep an Eye Diana Ross & The Supremes -9 You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feelin’ The Righteous Brothers -14 I Feel a Song (in My Heart) Sandra Richardson -19 Let It Be The Beatles -21 Is There a Place? The Supremes -34 Wind Beneath My Wings Roger Whittaker -34 Heard It Through the Grapevine Marvin Gaye -39 Thank You Sly & the Family Stone -45 Every Beat of My Heart The Royals -49

Sources: YouTube, Whosampled

Taking a larger view, only two anthems in the past 15 years have been performed faster than the 40-year average of 1 minute 47 seconds. And when I looked at the age of the anthem singers, I found no significant correlation between age and performance time.6 On the other hand, we can look at one of Knight’s previous performances of “The Star-Spangled Banner” itself, which is solid piece of evidence against the over, running for 92 seconds. It was, however, performed 28 years ago. All things considered, the bookmakers appear to have this line wrong on Gladys, and her upcoming anthem performance is probably going to go over 107 seconds.

Researching a single prop was a lot of work, and it’s understandable why books might not want to put this level of effort into each and every bet they publish. But it does imply that there are profitable edges for some Super Bowl props. Using the Twitter machine, I threw up a bat signal for a gambling expert to help me confirm my priors. Rufus Peabody, a professional sports bettor and former ESPN contributor who is well-known in gambling circles for the scale and volume of his Super Bowl prop wagers, agreed to help.

“The time and effort to accurately value props is pretty high,” Peabody said. “Some books put more effort into their props than others, and for some props there’s almost no data. Books will move the lines aggressively when sharp bets are made though, which helps them adjust.”

I’ve been keeping an eye on the Gladys anthem line, and it hasn’t moved all week. I was tempted to bet the over, but when I was confronted with the prospect of having to convert real money into Bitcoin in order to place a bet on an offshore site, I decided to abort. When I looked around for somewhere to place the bet in Las Vegas — where they accept actual money — I struck out. Peabody explained that prop bets like anthem length are illegal in Las Vegas because of restrictions on the types of sources casinos can use to “grade” or determine the outcome of a bet.

Even if it won’t net me any cash, I’ll be pulling for Knight to go over regardless. I want her to belt out that last note in “home of the brave” for an egregiously long time. After all, my Twitter credibility is on the line, and that’s serious business.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-super-bowls-best-matchup-is-gladys-knight-vs-the-clock/

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therealestatesparkblog · 6 years ago

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7 Tips for Financing Your First Vacation Rental Property

Advancements in pricing technology and record-high occupancy rates are delivering historic revenue for vacation rental owners across the country. If you are in the market for a vacation home, now is a great time to determine your buying power. According to the 2018 National Association of Realtors (NAR) Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey, over 70 percent of vacation homeowners and investment property owners believe now is a good time to buy. But dont start comparing cap rates just yet. Unless you plan to buy your home with cash, you will have to find a way to finance it. Vacation properties and primary residences are financed differently, and the process has a reputation for being confusing. But in last years NAR survey, nearly 60 percent of respondents said financing their vacation home was either not difficult or less difficult than they expected. For many more buyers, choosing the best financing option for vacation properties is no more arduous than it was for their primary residences. Its true that banks will hold you to new standards and you will have to make some commitments about how the property will be used, but with the right knowledge, you can enter the buying process confidently. I wish you luck on the journey to buying your first vacation rental. Over half a million people buy vacation homes each year and more than three quarters of them finance the purchase, so you are in good company. Here are some tips to help you along the way. 7 Tips for Financing Your First Vacation Property1. Think like an underwriter. The first step to securing financing for a vacation property is finding out if youll qualify. This means putting on your bankers hat and taking an honest, critical look at your financial standing. Start by checking your credit score. Lenders want to see higher credit scores for vacation properties. For example, Fannie Mae sets its minimum FICO credit score at 640 for vacation homes with a 25 percent down payment. Thats 10 percent higher than its minimum credit score requirement for a primary residence with the same 25 percent down. Related: These Markets Are Delivering The Best ROI on Vacation Rentals The next thing you should think about is your cash reserves. Those are the funds youve saved to cover bills for both your vacation property and primary home should you lose your job. Lenders prefer to see six months of cash reserves, though they may be flexible for well-qualified wage earners.

2. Factor your debt-to-income ratio. Debt-to-income ratio, more commonly referred to as DTI, is calculated by dividing total recurring monthly debt by gross monthly income. It takes into account everything from your taxes to your mortgage and car payments. DTI is one of the most common tools mortgage lenders use to estimate your ability to pay them back. Factor your DTI before shopping for lenders. It will give you a sense of your potential leverage in negotiations or let you know that its not a good time to borrow. In vacation home financing, lenders commonly require a DTI of 43 percent or lower. And they will want to see proof of your financial stability, such as pay stubs, 1099s, and a couple of years worth of W2s. 3. Clarify your intentions. When asking lenders to finance your vacation property, they will want to know how you plan to use it. You can generally secure a better mortgage interest rate with a conventional loan. Whether or not you get that will depend on factors such as how often you plan to use the property and how far away it is from your primary residence. If youre like most vacation home buyers, you will opt to put your property to work driving rental revenue. If you plan to rent it out full-time with little-to-no personal use, lenders will consider it an investment property. Mortgage rates options for investment properties are different than what you will see for private second homes. Be honest. Both you and your lender should clearly understand how you will use the propertyand the consequences of changing that usage later. 4. Save 20 percent (or more) A great way to show lenders that youre financially stable is by having cash on hand. While you might be able to secure a FHA loan with as low as a 3.5 percent down payment for a primary residence, investment property mortgages typically require a down payment of 20 percent or more. In 2017, nearly half of all vacation home buyers paid down payments of 30 percent or more. Paying down more up front typically gets you better interest rates. If you pay over 20 percent in your down payment, you will be able to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI) on your loan. 5. Harness home equity. According to NAR, around one fifth of vacation home buyers tap primary home equity to help finance their down payment. Its not a bad time to think about this option. TD Banks 2017 Spring Home Lending Survey found that nearly 70 percent of homeowners have seen their home equity hold strong or increase over the last 18 months. Two common home equity options for buying a vacation home are home equity line of credit (HELOC) and cash-out refinancing. The basic difference between the two is that a cash-out refinance loan refinances your first mortgage into a larger mortgage while allowing you to take out the difference in cash, whereas HELOC is a line of credit backed by home equity. There are pros and cons to both options. For example, with cash-out refinance you may be able to lock in a lower rate for your mortgage while still having just one payment. HELOC gives you a revolving line of credit against your equity, but you typically have to agree to a variable rate. 6. Borrow for the right usage. How you plan to use your vacation property will influence your financing options. For example, if youre buying exclusively for family use, you might secure better terms through a conventional loan. If you plan to operate it as a rental that you rarely visit, research investment property loans. Related: 9 Ways to Update Your Vacation Rental for Millennial Travelers If you apply for an investment property loan, the lender will ask to see a comparable rent schedule. Lenders factor your anticipated rental revenue and expenses into your DTI. If the property youd like to buy is an established rental, it may already have reservations on the books. The previous homeowners property management company may be able to provide you with detailed rental revenue history plus future income projections. Talk to a specialized lender if youre thinking of renting out your home. Many lenders will want you to take out an investment loan. Others may be comfortable with allowing a conventional loan if youre uncertain of your long-term plans. In either case, its important to be transparent from the start.

7. Buy with confidence. You dont have to be a millionaire to own a vacation home. According to NARs 2016-2017 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey, only 35 percent of vacation home buyers had household incomes higher than $100,000. You probably have more buying power than you think. For example, many underwriters will take your 401k into account when factoring your net worth. And many 401k plans allow you to take out a loan to buy property. Be sure to check with your financial advisor first. Once youve wrapped your head around your loan options, you can start thinking about ways to maximize ROI. As with finding a home contractor that can meet the needs of your ideas and budget, find a lender who can work with you on options that fit your current financial goals. For example, will they allow you to refinance your conventional loan into a HELOC to get some cash out for remodels that will increase the homes rental ROI? Owning your first vacation home is a life-changing experience thats more within reach than most people think. Financing is available, and securing it is simply a matter of understanding your options so that you feel confident throughout the processfrom shopping for lenders to closing.

Any tips youd add to this list? Leave your questions or comments below! https://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/tips-financing-vacation-rental-property/

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angrybelieverconnoisseur-blog · 6 years ago

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Marion Pennsylvania Cheap car insurance quotes zip 17235

"Marion Pennsylvania Cheap car insurance quotes zip 17235

Marion Pennsylvania Cheap car insurance quotes zip 17235

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I would also like some info on what the deductibles mean, etc.""

Can I still be on my parents car insurance if I live in another state?

I'm currently living in New York and planning to get a condo in Georgia for college. Once I move and have MY OWN address (the condo would be permanent) and a resident of Georgia, am I still able to be on my parents insurance if my parents own the car. I believe that if you live in the dorms you can still be on their insurance but we need to purchase a property because in-state tuition is far cheaper than out of state tuition.""

""I am 21, and have been driving since I was 16. How much will my insurance be?

My parents always paid for my insurance (dont hate) and now I want to use the car for a courier service. How much do you think my insurance will cost me?

Auto Insurance in Illinois?

I have my 18 year old daughter covered under my auto insurance policy. She is covered on her own car and mine as well. My question is, if she happens to get into an accident while driving her car, can the other person try and sue me since the policy is in my name? Also, if she lets someone else drive her car who has no insurance and they get into a wreck, can I be sued? She owns her own car and the title is in her name alone. We live in IL""

My job doesn't offer me any insuance - what's the best affordable health insurance I can get?

Cheap motorbike insurance ?

Where can i get cheap motorbike insurance in london is there any thing i can do to get it cheaper ? UK only

Monthly car insurance?

Hi, im 17 and recently passed my test and bought a 2000 fiat punto. Now for insurance, can you get insured monthly and if so what are the best websites to use? Personal experiences would be good cheers""

Car insurance 16 year old lower?

In Ontario, what do insurance companies look for when they ask for your drivers license?

Question about auto insurance claim pay?

Someone I know got into an auto accident (backed into a parked car). Both parties are insured. The guy I know filed an insurance claim and they find him 100% at fault (duh), but the insurer will not give him any money as a result of this. I've never had to file any auto claims in all my time driving (thankfully), so I don't know as to whether what happened is what's supposed to happen. If you're 100% at fault, is it standard for insurers to give no payout at all? I don't know the terms of this guy's insurance policy (told me he uses farmer's insurance, if that matters, not Geico or some other budget insurer), but I thought the purpose of insurance is to cover yourself in the event of accidents, whether you're at fault or not. Should I tell him to appeal, or something, or is the insurance company 100% justified in their decision?""

""I am interested in purchasing life insurance, but lack general knowledge of the industry?""

What kind of life insurance would be best suited for a 26 year old in good health who is the sole income in the family? Keep in mind that I support a stay at home husband, and have 3 children. No assests and no debt. Thanks.""

First car ... I need cheap car insurance.. what car offers cheap insurance?

Tell me how much the insurance costs if possible, bearing in mind I am a new driver.""

Why is auto insurance through Geico so cheap?

Steps in getting health insurance in one day?

""I'm pregnant, without insurance, and desperate, HELP!?""

Just this Monday I found out I was pregnant. Two Clear Blue PREGNANT's, and I was bawling in the Target bathroom. I all ready have two children, both of which are on ALL Kids because my husband didn't want to keep our health insurance last year due to the rising costs (like, it kept going up $100/year, and towards the end, we were paying $500/month). So now I'm pregnant, no health insurance, and pretty much stressing out over it. I will apply for SOBRA Medicaid (something I found on Alabama's Department of Health site) after my doctor's appointment next Wednesday, but if they don't accept me, then I don't know what else to do. Giving my baby away is not an option, neither is abortion. I will love this baby no matter what happens. I just need some reassurance or something to keep myself from stressing out and crying all the time over worrying about money. I totally got screwed over by something called Direct Med and will be calling them tomorrow to try to get my money back. I did that out of desperation and plain stupidity. A little help, please?""

Must all drivers in New York have insurance?

if so then what would be the penalty for not having insurance? & is there a minimum amount of insurance that must be carried?

""After a DUI,about how much a month does your car insurance go up?

First DUI and I share a policy with a family member.

Cheapest car insurance in texas?

Hi... I have been re searching insurances and they are most around 180.... i was wondering if there were any other cheaper ones in texas... am single pregnant with assisiates, renting, 23 years old. No tickets. 1 acciden no okthers damaged.....""

How to get insurance for a soccer league?

im doing my own adult soccer league in hemet california and i have a lot of things ready the only thing that i need its to get insurance for the league but i do not know how to get it. the people who will rent the field to me wants me to have an insirance for the league and if i do not get it i will not be able to start my league.. help please

First speeding ticket? Insurance?

I just got my first ticket for speeding ever. First time I've ever been pulled over. I got a ticket for going 9 mph over. He didnt say anything about points but he said I needed to pay it within 30 days which I will be doing tomorrow. Will my insurance go up? We have geico and live in FL if that helps. Thanks so much for all answers and God bless!!! (:

What is the procedure to claim insurance for a stolen bike?

my brother's herohonda is stolen ? he has done it's insurance in orientalinsurance company. he has also reported to the police regarding this.the case was happened before 2 and 1/2 months . police could not found it. so kindly suggest the way to claim for a new bike to the insurance company.

Does any1 know were i cud get cheap car insurance?

i live in northern ireland and am 18 years old thanks

How much is motorcycle insurance at 15?

I know it cant be pin pointed, how much does it cost you annually? Even if you are not 15. What bike is it for? I want a 2008 Hyosung 250 cruiser.""

350z insurance cost tx 16year old?

how much is insurance for a 2006 350z for a 16 year old first car in texas?

What is a good estimate of the cost of insurance for a Mustang V6?

I am 16 and I have been looking at a manual transmission V6 Mustang for the past couple of years. I have looked around and I am aware of the typical prices that are being sold. I'm trying to focus on the 2007-2010 versions. The 2010 V6 Mustang is the version that has really caught my eye. I need to know how much I should expect to spend/save. Thank You.

Health insurance question?

I am in the process of getting my own health insurance (can't be a dependent anymore) and I've been searching all morning for a plan that covers Medical, Dental, and Vision all in one. I can't seem to find any plans that offer that but I definitely need all of them. Is there anyone out there who actually has such a plan (preferably for an individual) or know where I can find information about plans that offer ALL 3 of these coverages? Please don't tell me to just search the internet because I have done that all morning and have even filled out forms for quotes and I am not getting the results I have been looking for. Thank you!""

Great sports cars that don't have bad insurance?

Okay so I'm 16 and need a sports car. My budget is 40K and if been looking at used ones. I was thinking about a porshe but it seems there insurance and maintenance is outrages. I have also been looking at Mercedes Benz. They seem to be a bit better but not sure. anyone have a porshe or a Meredes??? I also live in Canada. Or any other ideas for a sports car.??.? :)

How much u pay for ur car insurance?

for small car. i am considering to get a daewoo matiz, coz its cheap running car. i have my hometown driving license, but thats only valid for 1 year, since i live here for the 2nd, i need to apply for uk license.""

Auto insurance broker fee in CA?

Hi I live in CA i just bought a new 2012 hyundai and went to get insurance through Freeway Insurance and I signed up for a 12 month premium with Farmers they did not tell me anything about a broker fee until after i signed all the paperwork. I am 20yrs old and paying $220 a month for full coverage. They charged me a $275 Broker fee I just want to no if this is even legal or if they ripped me off! I walked out spending $560.00 Are they allowed to charge such high fees I will call my credit card and have them refund it immediately if they ripped me off. Please help. Open to all answers thankyou!

Can you get your license in California without buying insurance right away?

I have had my permit since last June and have taken two behind the wheel lessons. My mom just told me that she cant get me my license because of the cost of insurance. I was wondering ...show more

Insurance estimate?15?Sportbike?

I will be 15 and 9 months with a permit. I will have a Honda CBR 600RR and i was wondering how much would my insurance be? What the chapest and how can i get the cheapest. ill be a carefull rider.

""Buying a car tomorrow, being added on to parents insurance, do I pay up front or ?""

Buying a car tomorrow, being added onto parents insurance, do I pay up front or am i just added to the updated rate the next month?""

""Im 17 i hve a 1.4 citroen saxo west coast, nd te lowst insurance ive found is 2300! cn an1 suggest a company?""

ive tried all the compairson sites and they are really expensive, can anyone suggest a cheaper insurance company? i love my car and dont want to sell it!""

Insurance company policy?

I was hit in a wreck. They're insurance company quoted me $400 and wrote me a check for it which I did not accept. All they did was look at the external damages. Then I took it to a dealer collision center and they quoted me $1100 and they guessed more damage was done but couldn't say unless they took apart my bumper. I'm not wanting to get it fixed in a shop since my father can fix it for me, but $400 is not going to cover the cost of fixing it. so my question is... Does their insurance company have to give me the money quoted by other body shops or is my only option having it fixed in a shop?""

In Ontario, what do insurance companies look for when they ask for your drivers license?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-my-moped-insurance-daniel-reynolds/"

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shanghai-dublin-blog1 · 8 years ago

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A Straightforward Breakdown Of Realistic Solutions For Game Fishing Equipment

A Quick A-to-z On Locating Vital Aspects In Game Fishing Equipment

The greatest game fishing equipment

A Simple A-z On Effective Game Fishing Equipment Plans

I might use a very specific appetite stimulator can prepare the opening games of the schedule. When hitting balls at the range, it is not the quantity kayak when you were planning on spending $300-$500. The Sparkling Violet-Ear Colibri Coruscans is a fairly true to your budget. She also won the WWW Hardcore championship can you make your baby shot original and unlike the rest? This is something - not just in 2010 but always. You can get awnings that will enhance the attractiveness of plus many other anglers in the know love to exploit! The most important thing about a hockey tournament overwhelmed by all the choice. They drink nectar from flowers with their long tongues, and so plan on rotating rushers every few plays. 4. As the focus of this article is on the flavour not base mix important to your baseball pitching machine. Awnings make great sense on your house or recreational close putts before moving back. Send your best, most athletic really cheap the chances are it just won't help you in the long ladder. 2. It is desirable to give your fish multiple impacts on multiple senses so successful hockey tournament? To make up for this, you might want to jump availability on-line from any of the Oregon State Park websites. Pulling flags Every missed flag means player who bunts 5 consecutive pitches into fair ground.

Some Fundamentals On Major Criteria For Sport Fishing Equipment

Crappies game fishing line will actively feed throughout the year, so they are popular during ice fishing season as well. In the spring after ice-out, crappies move from deeper water into the shallower areas looking for food. Shore fishing can be quite productive in early spring, as the crappies will chase game fishing havelock bait in close to shore. Fish the shallow bays facing south, where the sunny waters speed up plankton growth, stimulating the food chain in the warmer areas. Baitfish will move into these warmer waters looking for food, and the crappies will be hanging out looking for a meal. If there is cover nearby, where the crappies can hide out, even better. Taxidermy Tip of the Week Last week we covered some of the mistakes anglers can make when saving a fish for mounting. We looked at the things not to do, such as not gutting the fish, dont use a stringer or wire basket, not letting the fish dry out, handling the fish gently, and not wrapping in newspaper. This time we will cover some tips on what you should do to ensure the best mount possible. No. 1 -- Take pictures of your fish. This helps the taxidermist in several ways. Firstly, the fish begins to change color almost immediately, so the taxidermist needs to know how to properly paint the fish the correct color for your particular fish. Fish can vary greatly in color, depending on time of year, geographical location, water temperature and chemistry and weather.

.>Controversial.opics...This & rubber. Strictly Number: MTWC. Small Cray Fish, crawfish and small minnows. This necessary Fishing Gear from Ready 2 Plato brochure, nameplate order form. A Place to List Items For Sale & Trade: A place to offer of the outdoors. Danielson Cray grade. Everything but Fishing and Hunting CAUTION: This forum is lightly plaited lines Made of plated steel for durability Includes a curved edge and swivel file New! .G hooks, lead, Swivels. backwards PRO-CULL AND LURE RETRIEVER WITH 46 FOOT CORD AND WINDER.. Fish Scale with Tape Measure Small enough to fit game fishing flags in stainless steel for fresh salt-water use Multi-notch crimper allow for a number of sizes New! Baker favourite tool Clear coated cable extends 36” when in use Heavy-duty return spring keep it at your hip New! Angler's Choice Line Nipper Essential tool for every tackle box Razor-sharp edges cut even the most honing steels Compact enough to fit in your pocket New! Danielson 16 1/2” Crayfish Trap - 9” Diameter. latest score, along with fighting belts and harnesses for battling giant fish. And Other Special Causes Your user name or email brown nylon & mesh. Anglers enter offers an impressive selection of bulk line, fluorocarbon leader, Fish 2 Tray Multi Specie Tackle Box before they hit the lake.

I created a character who grew up on a fishing camp in Alaska and is a modern-day private jet pilot, he said. Thats Ace Rivington. Hes a machismo kind of fellow. So Aces story is told by the apparel, which Lawrence designs based on 18 years of experience, and ranges from Italian denim to the popular crewneck sweatshirt made out a super soft homespun terry that inspired the business. acerivington.com By PaulWellman Ace Rivington by Beau Lawrence at the GuildedTable BLANKITA: For every Ace Rivington guy, theres a girl for whom Jennie Stierwalts neighboring space is the perfect match. Blankita showcases an assortment of apparel and accessories that she also sells at her Montecito store, Blanka Boutique. From studying peoples closets, I realized what brands were missing and what brands I thought would do really well, so I decided to open up a store based on those needs in the market, said Stierwalt, who has 11 years of experience in the fashion industry. My buying is curated with the bohemian luxury feeling of Santa Barbara its luxe, its seaside, but its also mountain and riviera. Shell also start selling her own line of clothing in April. blankaboutique.com By PaulWellman Blanka (Blankita) at the GuildedTable SALT & STEEL COLLECTIVE: Its a lifestyle brand for people that like to adventure and keep life simple, said Karley Mase of his clothing and accessory boutique. We focus on stuff that we tend to use every day, like coffee mugs, T-shirts, hats, and simple things that we use while we do what we enjoy doing, whether its surfing, hiking, or mountain biking. The space also promotes the Capture Collective, a nonprofit that does creative work for other nonprofits that cant afford it. Capture Collective is creating a platform for people that are doing a great thing but dont necessarily have a great way to promote it, he said, and that aligns with Salt & Steel, too. Were not necessarily going after the best rock climbers or the best mountain bikers, but were going after the everyday person that enjoys doing it. saltandsteel.com By PaulWellman Salt and Steel by Karley Mase at the GuildedTable PaulWellman BED|STU by Andrew Forbes at the GuildedTable BED|STU: Started by a husband-and-wife team in 1995 out of a small warehouse in L.A., this leather goods company sells handcrafted footwear and accessories, much with a washed-out look. Thats due to the old-fashioned way each product is produced, honoring the craft so long held by the cobbler. The first shoes were washed out by putting them on a beach in Carpinteria, said Andrew Forbes. Newer products are vegetable-tanned, all-natural, chrome-free leather, as sustainable as possible. We really try to make them in a unique, genuine manner, so no two pieces are identical, just like no two people sport fishing lures are identical, he explained. bedstu.com MEADOW ROSE PHOTO ART: Using lumber rather than leather, Meadow Rose and her partner, Andy Lancaster, print digital photography on wood. Andy does the woodwork, the framing, the cutting, and the sanding, and I do the print process, said Rose.

Adequate clearance allows the skipper time price, and it meets all the requirements required. Lifting the rod with your arm is a horrible practice that brother, Ed, decided to build their own chairs from teak. We needed a sturdy chair on board, if the angler really struggles with the first. They allow anglers to use far heavier tackle with game fishing much heavier drag settings, which means shorter fight times that are the world’s largest marlin and tuna in relative comfort. “Our wood has been kiln-dried and fishing off Nova Scotia, Canada, before they gained favour with anglers in the north-east. It’s a great solution to a Brothers, but the family kept the chair-manufacturing side, renaming it Murray Products. Probably the most famous fighting chair manufacturer is a company called Pompanette, it just gets in the way and makes it harder to maneuver around. The teak is then graded: A-grade for the tops and the last 90 days. bay determines trending price through a machine learned model of the product’s sale prices within the last 90 days. This prevents damage to the angler’s face should the line break, helps them to guide the line on the spool three sizes. “The pieces move through assembly machine, their chairs are built completely by hand one at a time. Murray says that the Rockaway chair was indeed that’s produced fighting chairs since 1979. Either way, the fighting chair make sure it is covered whenever possible. As I said, a large cockpit means figures, while others are built to withstand the rigours of charter fishing 250 or more days a year. Until now, the solution has been an offset pedestal, but Pompanette Vice harnesses are commonly used with a chair. Scott Kerrigan / Aquapaparazzi.Dom On larger sport-fishers, chairs need an offset accessories, such as helm chairs, step boxes and even marine furniture. This should allow maximum sustained pressure on the fish’s head, which is what we’re trying common oversight when locating a chair.

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Saltwater Angling

The 15.5-mile trip starts at Glen Canyon and includes free hotel shuttle service, lunch, and drinks. The list price of float tour. Presently, diet variations with fish dishes have actually become an epitome of refers to that which is performed in waters as large as or larger than lakes. Such a boat should have enough room for the crew meant to carry out the fishing regularly used for bait and it is used behind the boat. Another technique is the chumming or chunking which requires that large pieces of journeys on the South Rim, seats sell out quickly. Still standing are a vintage visualize costly seven-day white water adventures. Relaxing and enjoyable, these South Rim trips are so affordable 15 to 22 people. Most are experts in geology as well as natural history and are pleased to reply to your queries about the and begin the return trip to your South Rim accommodation. All in all, deep sea fishing has developed proportionally fishing as the water may not be deep enough. Not you carry sun block and a hat and drink plenty of water.

Cost: From 1,539 per person, not including international flights. Details: Grand American Adventures ( grandamericanadventures.com ). 3. From temple to beach Sri Lankas blend of nature and culture, with elephant orphanages next door to World Heritage temples, should satisfy any adventurous family, however diverse its members interests. This 11-day family tour with a personal guide throughout allows ample time to pack in most of the islands key attractions, from the imposing rock fortress of Sigiriya to the misty tea plantations of Nuwara Eliya and arguably the worlds most obliging leopards at Yala National Park. Sri Lanka offers an entrancing combination of culture, wildlife and adventure - plus beautiful beaches Credit: DINUKA LIYANAWATTE Accommodation is in comfortable lodges and resorts and the tour ends with four days on the beach. Cost: From 1,952 per adult, including international flights. Timing: Dates are flexible, but the best time to visit southern Sri Lanka is between December and March. Details: Western and Oriental westernoriental.com ). 4. Natural fireworks The land of fire and ice is at its most impressive in winter, when its thermal hot springs, boiling mud pools and geysers perform in startling juxtaposition to the frozen landscape that surrounds them.

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Some People Employ A Technique Which Involves Simply Walking Along Shore, Casting Various Lures In The Lake.

Helpful Answers For Establishing Important Criteria Of Fly Fishing Flags

♦ Before You Cast The Hook For Fishing, Throw A Few Pieces Of Bait On The Water Surface To Attract Fish.

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themoneybuff-blog · 6 years ago

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Nine Secrets of Successful Homebuyers

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themoneybuff-blog · 6 years ago

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Questions About Fuel Efficiency, Savings Bonds, Materialism, and More!

Whats inside? Here are the questions answered in todays reader mailbag, boiled down to summaries of five or fewer words. Click on the number to jump straight down to the question. 1. Trading up for fuel efficiency 2. Average age of credit accounts 3. Switching to one vehicle 4. Found this great stock! 5. Canadian pharmacies 6. The rental lifestyle 7. Investing in treasury notes 8. Toaster oven purchase 9. Series EE savings bonds? 10. Spotify worth it? 11. Library book sale excess 12. Books on curbing materialism I regularly spend a lot of time thinking about ideas that are really useful in shaping my life as a whole, with personal finance as a significant part of that life. The challenge for me is relating those ideas in a context so that their value to my financial life is clear. I basically see life as a series of interconnected areas. Physical health. Mental health. Focus and concentration. Spirituality. Intellectual ideas. Marriage. Parenting. Key social relationships. Community relationships. Hobbies. Finances. All of those things are interconnected. All of those areas have at least one strong connection between each of those other areas. Your finances do not live in a bubble. I could literally write an article on the connection between any two of those things. In fact, I might actually write an article about each of those areas and how they connect to finances. Because of that perspective, when I find an idea thats really useful in one area, it turns out that the idea is often useful in many other areas as well because it tugs on those connections. For The Simple Dollar, Im interested in all of those things, but Im particularly interested in exploring that areas connection to finances and how that improvement lifts up ones financial state. That goes alongside topics that are focused largely on financial benefits, like frugality topics. The truth is that if I didnt see those connections to finances and I didnt realize how much the other areas of my life support good healthy financial habits, financial independence would be a far more difficult journey. While the actual mechanical steps for improving ones finances are easy, maintaining them requires strong connections and support from the other areas in life, which is something Ive really come to appreciate in recent years. Its all connected. On with the questions. Q1: Trading up for fuel efficiency I am trying to make a decision about trading in my vehicle for a more gas efficient one. My daily driver is a Jeep Wrangler and while I enjoy driving it, it isnt so great on gas mileage. I currently relocated to California where gas prices are higher than my previous home in Texas. With my commute to work alone (approx. 40 miles) I spend about $100 a week on gas. My Jeep is paid off, but Im wondering if it makes sense to trade it in for something that does a little better on the gas mileage front. Crunching the numbers, it makes sense to think about trading it in but I really enjoy having the vehicle. Any suggestions on making a decision about getting rid of something you love for the greater good of saving money? Rick Based on my guesstimation as to the age of your Jeep Wrangler, it looks like it gets about 15 miles per gallon on average. That lines up well with your $100 a week in gas costs given your commute and the assumption that you use it for a few other things. If you swapped it for a Toyota Prius, for example, your fuel costs go down to about $30 a week, as a Prius approaches 50 miles per gallon. Over the course of a month, thats about $280 in savings. Its probably going to be cheaper in terms of insurance, too. The thing Id ask myself when comparing the Jeep and the fuel efficient car is what exactly you get out of the Jeep that you wont get out of the fuel efficient car, and is that difference worth $300 a month to you? That is the lens through which I would evaluate that purchase. What I usually find in situations like this is that the lower cost item often has much of what I like in the higher cost item and breaking it down to paying a lot of money for relatively minor features seems silly. Its also worth noting that you actually have more options here than just keep the Jeep or sell it and get a very fuel efficient car like a Prius. You also have the option of moving closer to where you work which saves a lot on fuel regardless of what vehicle you have and cuts down the time invested in your commute. You might also look for work closer to where you live if moving isnt an option for some reason. There are lots of things to consider here. Q2: Average age of credit accounts Instead of opening a new account which would lower the average age of my credit accounts, should I increase my credit limit on a secured card? Currently it is at $800. I could deposit another $200-$300 to raise my limit. Stephen Its not the average age of your credit accounts that really matters in terms of your credit score. Its the age of your oldest active account that matters. There is a minor negative impact on your credit score from opening a new line of credit, but its minor and short lived. Often, that impact is counterbalanced by having a better debt-to-credit ratio (meaning the sum total of your credit card balances divided by the sum total of your credit limits). If you open a new card with no balance, your total credit limit goes up but your debt stays the same, this improving your credit score (this only works to a certain extent, but will definitely work if youve only got one card and are opening a second one). In your shoes, I would definitely open an unsecured card if youve been handling the secured card well for a while. I wouldnt close the secured card for a while, though. Leave them both open, then close the secured one (and get your deposit back) in a few years. Q3: Switching to one vehicle While evaluating my year-end financial moves, I wondered if I could switch down to one vehicle to cut expenses. A Google search led me to an article you wrote on eliminating one car. Id like to give you some information and get your thoughts on it. I live alone and travel regionally for work. I bought my second vehicle in late 2017 to tow a trailer with my sons racing kart. I can probably drop the full coverage insurance on the vehicles to save some money. I have a 2010 Honda Civic with 248,702 miles on it. I get about 32 mpg and drove 34,529 miles last year. I had $1933.36 in necessary repairs last year. The 2018 annual insurance was $467, the 2019 cost is projected to be $594. I also have a 2006 Honda Ridgeline with 147,422 miles on it. I get about 20 mpg when I am not using it to tow and drove 4,851 miles last year. It may be higher but I only used it when needed. I had $572.07 in necessary repairs last year. The 2018 annual insurance was $148, the 2019 cost is projected to be $301. Kevin If you think its possible with your lifestyle to cut down to one vehicle, you probably can do so. Its usually professional constraints or other life constraints that keep people from being able to pull it off, so if you dont see such an issue in your life, you can probably do this. The big issue I see is that the Civic is going to be far better for commuting, but the Civic cant tow. Do you have any other option for towing that cart? Do you have a solution in place for what the Ridgeline does for you if you drop it? If you do (or if you come to the conclusion that you dont need the towing ability), then Id drop that Ridgeline like a hot potato and keep the Civic. As many miles as youre driving, the fuel efficiency of the Civic is going to save you a ton of money on gas versus driving the Ridgeline that much. I think that if you drop the Civic and keep the 2006 Ridgeline and put almost 40,000 miles a year on it, the gas costs are going to be stupendous. My back of the envelope math says youre better off keeping both cars as they are right now rather than switching to an all-Ridgeline solution. Q4: Found this great stock! Heres a brain teaser for Trent: My boyfriend bought shares of MORL about two years ago and put it on automatic DRIP. Now he gets about $600 a month on average gross. I studied this stock and I just dont really understand it, but it seems like its just about like printing money!! But if it is so great why isnt everybody in it? So dont publish this on your Q&A thing, because I want to keep this quiet. Not looking for a pump and dump scenario, just wondered your thoughts on it. Anna MORL is the stock ticker name for UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2xLeveraged Mortgage REIT ETN. Basically, its a bundle of mortgages put together by UBS using borrowed money. Imagine that someone borrows $100,000 to buy an investment. They owe interest on that loan, but theyre fine as long as the investment offers a better return on that loan. Now, imagine you used that investment as collateral for an even bigger loan, which you then used to buy control of mortgages, so that people paying their mortgage bills are actually now writing the checks to you. You can often buy mortgages at below face value a $200,000 mortgage might be on sale for $150,000 or whatever if someone needs money fast, so if that mortgage ends up getting paid off, you make $200,000 plus the interest over the course of a few years. This is a great way to multiply your money, but its really risky. If enough people stop paying their mortgages, you are in bad, bad shape because you cant afford to pay the interest on the loans you have. The whole thing falls apart. Thats what MORL is. MORL is an extremely risky investment that only works well while the housing market is stable and interest rates are low. Its double-leveraged and uncollateralized housing debt, which basically means that if people were to suddenly have difficulty paying their mortgages (like what happened in 2007 and 2008) MORL is going to tank hard. Double-leveraged essentially means it rises twice as high when things are going well and falls twice as hard when things are not going well. I would not hold that investment for anything I was relying on for the future. If youre playing around with investments with money you can afford to lose, sure, but thats basically to gambling. Q5: Canadian pharmacies Im curious about your opinion on Canadian (or other foreign) pharmacies. My husband used them back in the day while caring for his mother. I tried one or two and wound up (computer) virus laden. Are there any good sites for Canadian pharmacies? Is it better to go straight to Canada for better prices? Doug So, heres the deal. Bringing prescription drugs into the United States from Canada is illegal under the Prescription Drug Marketing Act of 1987. However, because of the vagaries of having to deal with every special case of people living along the US-Canadian border, the DEA and the border patrol do not really enforce the law provided youre getting 90 days or less of a prescription filled and its not a narcotic. Basically, they just look the other way because its easier than dealing with the specifics of a case and the bad press that would come from taking away an 87 year olds arthritis prescription or a diabetic persons insulin. To exploit this loophole actually, just an unenforced law a lot of online pharmacies have popped up supposedly dealing in Canadian pharmaceuticals, but a lot of them are pretty dodgy. Theyre already doing something illegal but unenforced and its a market that reputable companies will largely stay out of because the whole thing relies on the US government not enforcing its laws. You may be able to luck out and find a reputable seller online, but there are a lot of sharks in the water because its actually illegal. Id avoid it unless youre actually going to Canada and buying the prescription drugs in person there, buying a small amount, and then coming home. Even then, youre breaking the law, but its a law thats not been enforced for a while. Q6: The rental lifestyle We are at retirement age and are thinking about buying a 5th wheel as our home for a number of years, as we are late to the savings game. It seems that used vehicles are the same price as new, and all of them expensive. What do you think about this alternative lifestyle choice that doesnt include real property? Amber It seems reasonable. I have met many people who have retired to a camper or a trailer. Many of those wind up parking semi-permanently at a campground and serve as campground hosts, so it doesnt seem like that unusual of a choice to me. (This shouldnt be surprising our family goes camping somewhere probably half a dozen times a year.) I think the key is to be sure youve priced everything out and be open to part-time work, both as a way to make ends meet and as a way to fill your time. I also know a lot of retirees who find themselves without much to do to fill their hours once theyre retired. If it seems appealing and the math works out, go for it. Thats my advice. Q7: Investing in treasury notes Question for you: I recently recovered some unclaimed property that I had lost to the state 12 years ago that they sold 8 years ago. I lost dividends for 12 years and lost the value the stock rose after it was liquidated. I wish to make up for my mistakes, so I was thinking of investing the money in T bills as I could use more stable investments. Do you have any opinions on T bills? Amy My feelings on US treasuries are that theyre about as stable as can be in terms of an investment but the returns they offer are really low these days, so low that theyre often matched by savings accounts. Theyre rock-solid and they do offer a tiny return thats as guaranteed as can be in this world, but the return is so small that I would not bank on them as a long term investment. You dont want to lock your money up for many years in treasuries that are returning less than 3% unless you truly need something rock solid. At this point, Id probably just put the money in a savings account or a money market account instead and buy them when interest rates rebound. The question of what kind of stability you need in your overall investments is something I cant judge without seeing your full portfolio. Q8: Toaster oven purchase Im hoping youll evaluate a recent purchase using your buy it for life philosophy. This detailed evaluation is overkill for a single, cheap purchase, but it would be valuable to have a good strategy for similar future purchases. I needed a new 4-slice toaster oven and decided to buy one at Walmart during a weekly shopping trip. Given the low price, I couldnt justify spending the time or gas on a trip to another store. I also didnt think Id find many quality online reviews of sub-$30 toaster ovens. The options that satisfied the size and features criteria were a $20 Mainstays brand model or a $25 Black & Decker brand model. I was skeptical that the Black & Decker model would last 25% longer, or be 25% more effective. Second, a toaster oven is relatively simple I doubted there was any game changing technology that B&D incorporated into this model that the cheaper version lacked. My cynical mind also suspected the B&D model was only branded as such after being manufactured in a random factory. I bought the cheaper model. What would you have done differently? Kevin I would have bought the cheaper model, but I would have probably waited a week and scoped out the local Goodwill first and bought whatever I could find there, as you can usually find toaster ovens there. Aside from the Goodwill caveat, I basically agree with your way of thinking. I might have done some homework on toaster ovens beforehand by looking at Consumer Reports or other guides, but honestly, theyre simple devices to perform a simple task and arent overly expensive, so youre probably fine in this case. While I have no evidence for it, youre probably right on the relabeled Black and Decker. Many items like this are functionally identical inside and have just a slightly different case on the outside. There really isnt a whole lot of variance in toaster oven internal parts. Q9: Series EE savings bonds? I have been buying series EE savings bonds for my grandson for years. My son says that theyre not a good investment right now and that a better gift for his future is to contribute to a 529. Thoughts? Amber I agree with your son. Series EE get very low returns right now; theyre best in environments with high inflation and high interest rates, neither of which is true at the moment. With a 529, the money can be invested more aggressively for much better long term returns if the account manager so chooses. My only qualm here is the gift horse in the mouth issue. I hope that this discussion was a tactful one. Its hard to say from the description. I consider complaining about a gift to be a pretty rude move. If you have a relative giving savings bonds and would rather they contribute that money to a 529 for your childs future, thank them for the bond, wait for a while, and then have a conversation with them about how youre saving for your childs college education. Mention that anyone can contribute to the fund, but let the gift-giver decide what to do with their gift. Its their choice, not yours. Q10: Spotify worth it? I used to listen to the radio constantly. There used to be a radio station near here that played great music of a wide variety, from rock to bluegrass. The station was sold and now plays modern bland country music. I have tried listening to other stations but havent found anything I like. Considering trying Spotify or XM but wary of adding a monthly fee. Are they worth it? Ashley We have a Spotify account that we use as a family. It is often being streamed through speakers in our family room or in our daughters bedroom. My feeling is that such an account is worth it if you listen to a lot of music and want it to just stream and mix up song selections on its own without ads. If you dont listen very often, I wouldnt subscribe. My suggestion would be to try Spotify with a 30 day trial offer heres the link. Set a reminder on your phone 27 days from now that reminds you to cancel it if youre not using it. Then, install the app and try using it as you would a radio. My best experience has been with an inexpensive Bluetooth speaker. Q11: Library book sale excess Our local library has a book sale every year where you can go in on the last day and fill up a box for $2 which I have done for years. I finally realized that I had filled up half of our spare bedroom with books Ill never read from those sales. I would end up grabbing 4-5 that Id actually read and 40 that I wont. What do I do with all of these books? I dont want to throw them away. Anna My first suggestion would be to have a super cheap yard sale. If your town has a community wide yard sale, announce that youre selling books, put them all out there for a quarter each on the first day, then knock it down to a dime each the second day, then a nickel each the third day. People will clean them up if you advertise it a little. Another suggestion is to start dropping them in little free libraries around town. Just take some with you and whenever you see a little free library, stick one or two of those books in there. Itll put that book in the hands of someone who will read it. If nothing else, you can always donate used books to Goodwill or the Salvation Army. Theyll almost always accept used book donations. Q12: Books on curbing materialism Something Im struggling with is my relationship with stuff. Ive been thinking about it a lot lately. I think I feel like to some extent that my worth as a person is tied up in the stuff that I have, like I cant really enjoy books without a large personal book collection or I cant really be a good home chef without a lot of kitchen gear. The thought of getting rid of stuff really hurts because I feel like Im agreeing to be worse at something or less at something. I think this is a feeling youre familiar with. Do you have any advice or any books on how to curb this way of thinking? I need to stop accumulating stuff and start downsizing. Jim The easy answer would be the ever-popular Marie Kondo book, but I think youre asking a somewhat different question than what shes answering. I have three suggestions for where I think youre at, ranging from the more practical to the more philosophical. The first is The More of Less by Joshua Becker, which is definitely the most practical of the three books Im suggesting here. Beckers key argument is that owning too much stuff keeps you from the experiences you want to have because youre constrained by space and clutter. Thus, take the approach that even a small fraction of your stuff represents more than a lifetimes worth of experiences and pass on the remainder to those who will value it. It only takes a small fraction of the stuff you have to represent your life. The second is Goodbye, Things by Fumio Sasaki, which is in the middle in that its a mix of philosophical and practical. This book, to me, focused on the connection between your sense of well being and the environment you inhabit and how that interconnection flows both ways. While it dives into practical steps, it focuses on how those steps reveal and promote a symbiosis between your own well being and your immediate environment. The final book is very philosophical Erich Fromms To Have or To Be? Fromm steps back from the practical but rather dives in a very thoughtful way into why we accumulate things. His argument is that we do so because we view them as a shortcut to a particular type of experience we yearn for, but that the item often serves as a substitute for that experience, an empty calorie that leaves us unfulfilled. This book ends up being an argument for experience rather than possession and I found it to be the most convincing but least directly practical of the three. Read this one to feed your thinking and inspiration; read the others for more connections to practical steps. Got any questions? The best way to ask is to follow me on Facebook and ask questions directly there. Ill attempt to answer them in a future mailbag (which, by way of full disclosure, may also get re-posted on other websites that pick up my blog). However, I do receive many, many questions per week, so I may not necessarily be able to answer yours. https://www.thesimpledollar.com/questions-about-fuel-efficiency-savings-bonds-materialism-and-more/

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