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bopinion · 1 year ago

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2023 / 40

Aperçu of the Week:

"It is not enough to win a war. It is more important to organize the peace."

(Aristotle - The Greek from BC is undoubtedly one of history's best-known and most influential philosophers - and my posterboy this year)

Bad News of the Week:

On Sunday, the midterm elections took place in Germany. Actually, the elections for the state parliaments in Bavaria and Hesse, but this time in particular they also had the function of a barometer for federal politics. The current government is approaching his halftime show. Even in the run-up to the elections, a good 60% of voters were of the opinion that a state election was a good opportunity to settle accounts with federal politics. Apart from the fact that this is bullshit - but the lack of qualification of eligible voters is another matter - election observers could hardly be surprised by the results. All of which do not bode well.

The worst aspect first: the right-wing populist and in parts far-right Alternative für Deutschland AfD (Alternative for Germany) gained about 40% in both states and will form the strongest opposition faction in each. Besides the devastating psychological signal, since votes for the AfD are apparently worthwhile as criticism of "the established parties," this also has very practical consequences, such as more influence on the agenda, more speaking time in parliament, vice presidential posts, etc.

Hardly better: the two incumbents of the conservative CSU/CDU were confirmed. Apart from the official bonus, this is probably mainly due to arch-conservative positions, which are anything but progressive or liberal. But the people apparently like a preservationist image ("I'd rather carry on like this than go through unpleasant changes"), a demarcation to the left ("The Greens are a prohibitionist party that wants to patronize you!"), thematic ingratiation with the AfD ("Migration is the mother of all our problems!") and fundamental criticism of the ruling traffic light coalition in the federal government ("They can't do it in Berlin!").

Speaking of the traffic light coalition, all three parties - Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals - were punished. And by a considerable margin. The Liberals were hit particularly hard, losing in the last seven state elections (Germany has 16 states) and even often being kicked out of parliament at less than 5% - like from Bavaria on Sunday. Now it is to be feared that they will seek their salvation in a clearer "profiling". This is unlikely to soften the coalition's discordant impression.

And that is rather unfair. After all, according to an evaluation by the Bertelsmann Stiftung, among others, this coalition has already achieved a full 38% of the goals agreed in the coalition agreement for the four-year legislative period in the first 20 months of its government and has at least substantially addressed a further 26%. That is an extremely respectable result. Although the Ukraine war and all its aftermath have thrown some plans out of kilter. We learn from this that perception is subjective.

Good News of the Week:

There are weeks that are so negative in terms of news that it's hard to find something positive. But I did find something. Even in the area of environmental protection, which is obviously the quickest to get thrown under the bus when business, military and political lobbyists try to shout over each other. Drum Roll please: the European Union is banning microplastics!

Those are those little plastic granules that are in things like cosmetic scrubs, for one thing, so that the Kim Kardashians of this world can shave off their aging dander more effectively. And for another, they're created in washing machines when you clean plastic clothes made of polyester, for example. At least the former is now being put to an end.

A new EU regulation now prohibits the deliberate addition of these microscopically small plastic particles. Not only in cosmetics, but also in artificial turf and pesticides, for example. The gradual implementation will start for things like loose glitter already in October, in other cases the sales ban will only come into force step by step in the coming years. No matter: traces of microplastics can already be found not only in the battered oceans, but even in the high mountains. And in human blood - after all, we are at the top of the food chain. A classic case of "better late than never."

Personal happy moment of the week:

My big daughter is now starting her 3rd semester at university. Since she's involved in the political science student council and was even elected as a representative to the faculty convention, it's almost a bit of "learning by doing in politics." And she and others are touchingly taking care of the new students who are starting now. For example, with an info primer on how studying actually works, a rally to get to know the (often new) city and, of course, partying. And she even bakes muffins for the new generation. I'm very happy that she seems to have found her place. And hope she doesn't forget with all her engagement that she's actually at the university to study.... ;-)

I couldn't care less...

...about U.S. geopolitics in the Middle East. Obama's credo of a "future in the Pacific region" has left a power vacuum. Which - as is usual with vacuums - fills itself. In this case, Iranian and Russian interests. They should have known better.

As I write this...

...a veritable crisis is unfolding in the Middle East. What began with an attack by the radical Hamas could quickly become a regional conflagration. To be clear, there can be no excuse for targeting innocent civilians. Merely because they have the same (Israeli) nationality as the politicians, soldiers and settlers who deny them the right to exist in their own homeland. But neither should the innocent civilians in Gaza and the West Bank have to suffer under the sanctions that have already begun (Israeli Defense Minister Joav Galant: "There will be no electricity, no food and no fuel (for Gaza) anymore") merely because they belong to the same (Palestinian) people as the terrorists. As a German, I know in every way how vicious and unjust Sippenhaft is.

Post Scriptum

Berlin has promised ten billion euros in subsidies to the US semiconductor manufacturer Intel. For the establishment of a production site in the high-wage country of Germany. This is a new record. The media portal The Pioneer has calculated comparisons: That's as much money as the federal government is providing to all German founders in venture capital through its Future Fund - until 2030. With these 10 billion euros, two hundred thousand social housing units could also be built per year. Or 2.4 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity could be created, the equivalent of two nuclear power plants. I have my doubts as to whether Intel pays so much in taxes and creates so many secure jobs that this speculative investment - because that's all it is after all - really pays off.

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its-veso · 6 years ago

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EU elections could turn EUR positive unless Merkel moves

The EU holds elections to its parliament as populism is on the rise across the continent.

Low expectations may be followed by a euro-positive surprise.

The greater risk may be if Angela Merkel quits.

Many Europeans are not happy with the system ten years after the crisis, may vent their anger in the European elections, frustrate further integration, thus sending the euro down. That is the main narrative of the upcoming EU elections. And despite a higher level of employment, anxiety over immigration, Russia, US isolation, and other topics disturbs a significant chunk of 400 million eligible voters in the old continent.

We reflected these views here: Anti-EU populism rise not priced in the EUR, European election could hit Euro[1]

But this is not necessarily the case.

Why pro-EU parties may gain

A recent poll by Eurobarometer showed that 62% of Europeans see the EU as a good thing, the highest since 1992.

Positivity reached its lowest since 2012, deep in the crisis. As the economic situation improved, support for the bloc rose. And the project received another boost after Brexit[2]. Instead of speculating on the next country to leave, more people began seeing the importance of the bloc and feared the consequences of leaving it despite all the troubles.

And while populists are on the rise, they have quietly stopped talking about holding Brexit-style referenda or leaving the euro-zone. Moreover, amid external threats from Russia and the distancing US, some see more need for a robust European body.

Another reason why pro-European parties may outperform expectations stems from fear from the populists. The incessant talk may bring more people to the polling stations and raise the dismally low turnout seen in previous editions.

So, there is also a case for a rise in support for pro-European, mainstream parties and not only an increase in the vote for populist ones.

The reaction in EUR/USD depends on expectations for the full composition of parliament but more for the four largest countries in the euro-zone: Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, another large country, is not on this list. Britain uses its own currency and is set to leave the EU.

Let us run through the big four, from bottom to top:

Spain – Populists are not so anti-EU

The fourth-largest economy in the zone is not immune to populists. It has seen the radical right-wing Vox party enter parliament in its recent elections. However, the leaders are not calling for a “Spexit,” and they received fewer votes than expected.

Moreover, Spain is the rare European case in which the center-left gained ground and won the elections. And in general, the southern European country is generally pro-European.

Italy – Big League wins for Salvini are probably priced in

Contrary to Spain, the populists are in power in Italy. Both coalition partners, the 5-Star Movement, and the League have clashed with Brussels on the budgets. League leader Matteo Salvini gathered like-minded ultra-right parties in Milan ahead of the elections, placing himself as one of the top anti-EU figures. His party is projected to make substantial gains in the upcoming polls.

Yet for euro traders, this may already be priced in. Worries about Salvini are not new for, and his recent rejection of Brussels measures is seen as part of the campaign rather than a real threat.

France – Macron may still surprise

President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating is scratching the bottom and his 2017 presidential rival, Marine Le Pen is set to make gains. The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) protests that engulf France since November may turn into votes for the populist Le Pen.

Opinion polls show both leaders neck and neck in the polls. A small victory for Le Pen would not be surprising and is also probably priced in. If Macron comes on top, it may add a few pips to the euro.

Germany – It all depends on Merkel’s response

Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU center-right group and the center-left SPD have both suffered losses in the 2017 national elections and eventually formed a coalition that is suffering from falling approval rates[3]. Regional elections forced Merkel to step down from her party’s leadership while staying in the Chancellery.

The main populist party is Alternative for Germany (AfD). The right-wing group that had its roots in calling for leaving the euro moved on to opposing immigration and has gained ground in German elections.

The upcoming ballot will likely see similar results: fewer votes for the centrist parties and more for the populists. And like in Italy and France, this is probably baked into the price.

So, concluding the tour of these four countries with the largest one, is the euro set to rise? We have not finished with Germany just yet.

Merkel’s party is the most significant contributor to the biggest bloc in the EP: the center-right EPP and both are expected to lose ground as mentioned earlier.

Yet the reaction in the euro could quickly turn negative if Merkel personally responds to the poll by announcing she will step down. She has served since 2005 and is seen as a beacon of stability in the old continent. Moreover, her successor Anagret Kramp Karrenbauer (AKK) may be unable to maintain the grand coalition with the center-left SPD.

A lack of leadership in Europe’s locomotive may send EUR/USD[4] lower.

Conclusion

Expectations for a populist backlash against the EU may lead to a positive surprise that may boost the euro. However, if the most powerful person in the continent quits, the common currency has room to fall.

References

^ Anti-EU populism rise not priced in the EUR, European election could hit Euro (www.fxstreet.com)

^ Brexit (www.fxstreet.com)

^ rates (www.fxstreet.com)

^ EUR/USD (www.fxstreet.com)

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#Forex News #Forex Crunch

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courtneytincher · 6 years ago

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An Extremist Murder Shocks Germany’s Politicians Into Action

(Bloomberg) -- It wasn’t your usual meeting of mayors in Germany’s presidential palace this week. One had been stabbed in the throat, another received death threats and most feared for their loved ones.They’ve all become victims of a wave of political violence that culminated last month in what appears to be the first assassination of a politician by a right-wing extremist since the end of the Nazi-era. Walter Luebcke, an immigrant-friendly member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party, was shot in the head on his front porch. The detained suspect, a man with a neo-Nazi background, first confessed and, upon switching legal counsel, recanted.In a country where ultra-nationalistic and xenophobic fringe movements have become more public and outspoken in recent years, the brutality of the murder was a wakeup call. Democracy itself was under attack, top officials declared. Now, there are there are growing signs that Germany is reacting.Secret services are stepping up intelligence work, some political parties are driving out radicals. Politicians like President Frank-Walter Steinmeier are driving a zero-tolerance campaign, while parliament held a special session to discuss right-wing violence before its summer recess. The latest intelligence report, presented in June, identified 24,100 people as right-wing extremists, half of whom are willing to use force.“All of us are getting emails, calls, and letters that make us ask—is this still the Federal Republic of Germany,” said Ralph Brinkhaus, the most senior legislator in parliament from Merkel’s ruling coalition. “Many colleagues, not only at a national and state but also at a local level, ask themselves ‘am I sufficiently protected. Can that happen to me?’”With nationalists from London to Warsaw challenging the European consensus that helped maintain peace and prosperity on the continent since World War II, Germany’s ability to deal with similar demands will have far-reaching consequences abroad and at home. While right-wing extremists are less visible than during last year’s massive anti-refugee demonstrations in the city of Chemnitz, they’ve become more violent and are increasingly targeting politicians. According to a June poll carried out by ARD’s Report Muenchen, roughly 40% of city officials get hate mail or other threats. In 8% of municipalities they have been physically assaulted.One reason for the radicalization could be frustrated expectations among right-wing extremists, said Gideon Botsch, professor of political science at the University of Potsdam. Nearly a year ago supporters of the movement were all but certain it could bring down the government amid the mass anti-immigration protests and the recent entry of the right-wing AfD in parliament. Then the rallies stopped. The AfD began to stagnate and bicker.“Such a situation we consider highly explosive because it carries the risk that groups that want more, and dabble in terrorism, feel they now can or must act,” Botsch says.“Every CDU politician who would propagate such a coalition, should close his eyes and think about Walter Luebcke”The wave of extremist activities has far-reaching political and economic repercussions at a time when Europe’s largest economy is losing steam and uncertainty has grown over the succession to Merkel, who said she won’t run for another term. Merkel’s ruling CDU is clearly distancing itself from the right.Read more: How Germany Finds a Leader If Merkel Steps Down EarlyThe AfD, known to have links to extremist groups, is steeped in its own leadership battle. And in Western Germany, the murder will likely cost it support, while strengthening those who pursue “a more sensible political tone,’’ said Steffen Kailitz, professor of totalitarianism at the Hannah-Arendt-Institut in Dresden. But the big test will come in fall with elections in the Eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia, where the AfD is currently polling as strong as the CDU, or even stronger, like in Brandenburg.Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who took over the CDU leadership from Merkel last December, is also putting herself and her party at arms length from the AfD, abandoning conservative rhetoric designed to win back voters from the movement. Politically incorrect jokes and calls for tougher measures to thwart immigration earlier in the year have been replaced with warnings to her colleagues not to sympathize with the AfD. “Every CDU politician who would propagate such a coalition, should close his eyes and think about Walter Luebcke,” she said in an interview on public TV.Business leaders who welcomed the opening of Germany’s doors to refugees because it would bring cheap labor, are equally concerned. Growing social conflict is spilling over into the streets and onto factory floors, raising questions about Germany’s investment climate, until now considered one of the most attractive world-wide. “Businesses think about that,” said Andreas Freytag, an economist at Friedrich-Schiller Universitaet in Jena, though he still considers the country’s overall public security quite good.Simon Brost, who works at MBR, a Berlin-based group that counsels on how to counter extremism, says he regularly gets queries from businesses seeking advice on how to deal with right-wing and rightist-populist attitudes at the work place.“Every CDU politician who would propagate such a coalition, should close his eyes and think about Walter Luebcke”The influential German business association DIHK late last year dedicated much of its annual conference to what it called “uncertainty” and “angst” stemming largely from migration and globalization. Business leaders need to do more to quell the breeding ground for political populists, they said.That won’t be easy. Intelligence reports paint a picture of a highly-sophisticated but diffuse part of society that propagates their way of life through rock concerts and martial arts competitions. On weekends, some use images of leading public figures for target practice, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said.Then there’s the dark side of social media, which the country’s chief intelligence officer cited as one of the reasons for Luebcke’s death. “A person defends the building of refugee camps, is massively attacked in social media, covered in hate posts, and finally virtually executed in his garden,” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of the German domestic intelligence service in reference to the Luebcke case.Authorities too may have dropped the ball or even turned a blind eye. Critics say intelligence personnel were heavily focused on Islamist terrorism while there were extremist sympathizers among security forces, a claim Seehofer has played down as an isolated issue.Tackling the latest wave of crime requires not only repression but addressing its fundamental origins—cohabitation between Germans and a flood of foreigners, says Freytag, the economist. The good news is that, at least, the country is beginning to take the issue serious, he says.“It’s actually about integrating people with vastly different perspectives on life and that’s damn hard. But I see more people thinking about the problem, that makes me mildly optimistic we can overcome this.”To contact the authors of this story: Raymond Colitt in Berlin at [email protected] Delfs in Berlin at [email protected] contact the editor responsible for this story: Caroline Alexander at [email protected], Ben SillsThomas PennyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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ultrafox1963 · 7 years ago

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Glad to leave that year behind

With only hours remaining before the end of 2017 in the United Kingdom, I am typing this message from my bedroom, where I am confined by a persistent, irritating chest infection.

This condition represents a fitting end to a year which is only likely to be remembered fondly by global financiers and fatcats. They saw their wealth continue to rise, while millions were forced into poverty by war and extreme weather conditions.

For good or bad (and sadly it was almost exclusively the latter) it was Donald Trump, poster-boy for the wealthy elite, who exerted a heavy and malign influence on world affairs during the year.

Combative and profoundly ignorant in equal measure, Trump gave a voice to many of the most toxic political forces on the planet. Although bloggers and social media correspondents challenged and condemned him at every turn, too many of their counterparts within more mainstream outlets were far too reluctant to do so.

Indeed, some - mostly but not exclusively within the media empire controlled by Trump's ever-willing sidekick Rupert Murdoch - appeared only too willing to collude with, and endorse, his world view.

Nevertheless, there remain grounds for optimism that 2018 will herald an improvement in US politics. The Mueller inquiry into the extent of Trump's collaboration with Russian forces will continue to claim important scalps, and perhaps even unearth grounds for impeaching/removing the president.

Of far more significance, though, is the battle for public opinion, which Trump and his party appear to be losing heavily. The recent election of Democrat senator Doug Jones in the solidly conservative state of Alabama sent a clear message to Trump of the decline of his power base.

Should his colleagues in Congress, many of whom face elections in the coming months, conclude he is a threat to their career prospects, they may yet muster sufficient courage to unite with Democrats in the national interest to bring the president to account.

In the meantime, though, it is a matter of extreme regret that among Trump's closest international allies (perhaps a close second to the maniacal religious supremacist Benyamin Netanyahu) was a certain Theresa May, who somehow survived attempts during the year to depose her as UK Prime Minister.

May began the year with poll ratings in the stratosphere, leading many of her supporters to declare her a world stateswoman of similar stature to the likes of Angela Merkel or Margaret Thatcher. Unfortunately for her, though, the events that transpired revealed her to be more of a demon than a deity in the eyes of large sections of the UK public.

When May called a snap general election in April 2017, the consensus among the Westminster bubble was that her party would win a majority of at least 100 seats, and perhaps even double that, thereby enabling the Conservatives to retain power for a generation.

The prime minister was understandably content to promote that narrative, even extending the election campaign to nearly two months in order to inflict the maximum possible humiliation on what mainstream pundits had frequently proclaimed to be a weak, discredited and divided opposition party.

However, both May and the pundits were taken aback by the resilience and fortitude displayed by Jeremy Corbyn and the team around him.

Unlike May, Corbyn had been in election mode for the previous two summers, fighting off sustained media onslaughts to emerge triumphant from two gruelling battles for the leadership of his party. The techniques that had served him so well during those successful campaigns now began to strike chords among the wider electorate.

Young people in particular, seeking an alternative to the mainstream consensus for austerity and war that had blighted their entire lives, were enthused by Corbyn's message of hope. With legions of Labour activists using both traditional and modern methods to reinforce that message and reach out to communities, a genuine transformation of British politics seemed possible, perhaps even leading to Corbyn becoming prime minister.

In the event, though, those hopes were dashed. The media oligarchs, aided and abetted by broadcasters who often scarcely bothered to conceal their pro-Tory allegiances, retained sufficient clout among older voters to ensure that the Tories remained the largest party. The terrorist attacks in London and Manchester during the campaign may also have been a factor in raising fears among sections of the electorate of the consequences of a change in government.

Nevertheless "Cruella", as May was nicknamed due to her resemblance (in both looks and deeds) to the animal-hating sociopathic character in the Disney film 101 Dalmatians, was denied the mandate she had sought, being forced into an agreement with the far-right Democratic Unionist Party in order to retain office.

The months that have followed the election have been characterised by a series of gaffes and cabinet resignations which further shredded what remained of the Tories' credibility within Europe.

Only the continuing support of the media oligarchs and the lack of consensus on a credible successor as Tory leader has allowed May to continue her occupation of Downing Street. However, the groundswell of discontent towards her continues to grow and could reach tipping point as soon as February should Trump take up her offer of a visit to the UK.

A year of political turbulence in continental Europe saw far-right parties continue to advance in several areas. These includef France, where Front National candidate Marine Le Pen reached the run-off stage of presidential elections and Germany, where the AFD gained its highest-ever vote in September's general election, partly at the expense of Merkel's CDU, though the backing of smaller parties enabled the veteran leader to retain office.

Possibly the most significant developments of all occurred in Catalonia, where the regional parliament attempted to declare independence from the rest of Spain. Following an inconclusive referendum, which was boycotted by anti-independence parties, the central government dissolved the Catalan parliament and jailed several of its leaders, only to see them returned to office in fresh elections.

Even the intervention of the Spanish king could not dissuade Catalans from voting to break free and suspicions internally and externally that Spain had not entirely renounced the attitudes prevalent during the Franco era proved to be disturbingly accurate.

As so often during the past century, such conflicts found expression through football, and in particular the ongoing rivalry between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid. Although the latter club enjoyed the most success during 2017, retaining the Champions League and World Club Cup as well as winning La Liga, the Catalans could take comfort in two famous victories at the home of their foes.

In addition, the talismanic Barca striker Lionel Messi continued to dazzle, enthrall and inspire at both club and international level, guiding Argentina to the 2018 World Cup when it had appeared for much of the year that they, and he, would miss out.

Messi also set a scoring record for the most number of goals scored during the calendar year, only to see it overhauled in a post-Christmas scoring burst by the England striker Harry Kane. It remains to be seen whether either player (or both of them) can produce such form on the biggest stage of all in Russia next summer.

At club level, any hopes that Leicester City could reproduce their Premier League heroics of 2016 had already long since disappeared when the new year began.

But the catastrophic slump in form that saw the side fail to score in the first six league games of 2017 could not have been foreseen. Faced with the prospect of the most ignominious of relegations, the Foxes decided to dispense, amid intense controversy, with the services of Claudio Ranieri.

A subsequent upturn in fortunes which saw City win their next five games and reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League, eased any fears of the drop, and convinced the club to appoint Craig Shakespeare, Ranieri's erstwhile assistant, to the manager's post.

Yet after disappointing results at the start of the 2017-18 campaign, Shakespeare also found himself surplus to requirements, although flaws in City's recruitment policies had not done him any favours.

Former Southampton boss Claude Puel became the third manager of the year at the King Power Stadium, and while he has overseen improvements in form to take City up to eighth place, doubts remain whether he can provide the stability that is required after a challenging year for all at the club.

Many, in the fanbase and elsewhere will prefer to look forward rather than back as the new year approaches..

We can only hope that 2018 proves to be more positive than its predecessor.

#2017 #Leicester City #Jeremy Corbyn #Theresa May #Lionel Messi #Harry Kane #Angela Merkel #Donald Trump #Covfefe #Claudio Ranieri #Craig Shakespeare #Catalonia #Claude Puel

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wionews · 7 years ago

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Angela Merkel wins a fourth term in office – but it won't be an easy one

Angela Merkel will continue as chancellor of Germany. But following an election that saw the rise of smaller parties – most notably the far right – her fourth term will probably be an eventful one in ways, she would not wish for.

The Union parties (Merkel’s CDU and sister party CSU) finished in top place with just under 33%. They did nevertheless lose almost 9% over their previous election result of 2013.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), coalition partner to the Union parties, finished a distant second, with just over 20% of the vote. For the SPD, this is a historic low: almost 6% down on the last election. Party leader Martin Schulz failed to come up to scratch in a lacklustre campaign.

Four smaller parties have managed to meet the 5% threshold to qualify for seats in parliament.

The right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieved a dubious milestone in post-war German history. With a vote share of 12.5%, it will be the first overtly far-right nationalist party to enter the federal parliament.

The Left Party (die Linke) and the Green Party (Bündnis ‘90/die Grünen) made marginal gains to score 9% and just over 9% respectively. Big gains went to one party that had been more or less written off after the last election and to another that many commentators hoped never to see in parliament at the federal level. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) rose from the ashes to return to parliament under their charismatic new leader Christian Lindner. With 10.7% of the vote, the party more than doubled its tally of the last election.

Forming a government

The new government will need to control 316 seats in the parliament to achieve the majority needed to take office. While probably technically possible, a continuation of the current Grand Coalition (GroKo) between CDU/CSU and SPD now seems unlikely.

Having sent mixed messages before the election, the SPD declared after the close of polls that it aims to work as an opposition party in the new parliament.

With the AfD and die Linke ruled out of a CDU/CSU-based coalition on ideological grounds, this leaves the possibility of a so-called Jamaica coalition of CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens (the parties’ traditional colours of black, green and yellow tally with the Jamaican flag). However, this option is no foregone conclusion and could prove very unpopular with voters.

All roads lead to Merkel

Despite the consistency of the polls over the past few weeks, an unprecedented number of German voters – around 40% – remained undecided as late as a week before the election.

The uncertainty was palpable in an unusually nervy, volatile mood among the electorate. Psychologist Stephan Grünewald noted odd swings in public perceptions of the Merkel government’s achievements. One minute Germany was a “desolate land”, the next an “island of prosperity”.

Germans are well aware of their relative prosperity in Europe but seem to have been traumatised by the impact of the migrant crisis within their borders. Anxiety runs high over international tensions and there is a fear that Germany’s economic security is under threat. At one level, people could hardly be bothered about the election. Even so, social media posts exploded with rage and Merkel’s car was pelted with tomatoes at appearances in the east – her home territory.

The voters sensed that a change was overdue but calculated that in practice all votes – other than for the radical outliers of the Left Party and AfD – would trickle back to Merkel. Ironically, the opposition parties fed the perception that there was no alternative to Merkel.

Before election day, all of the remaining mainstream parties – SPD, Greens and FDP – had seemed open to the idea of joining a coalition. With the Union parties bossing the polls at around 36% and the SPD well behind at around 22%, it was clear that any continuation of the GroKo would be led by Merkel, not Schulz.

Even after three terms in office and after testing the forbearance of the German public with her open doors asylum policy, 56% claimed in polling that they would rather see her remain chancellor while only 32% favoured Schulz. With neither the mainstream parties nor the voters daring to rock the boat, Merkel barely needed to campaign.

But now she faces another set of challenges before she can forge a new government. Before the election, it was thought that the higher the vote for the AfD, the greater the likelihood that the vote of the other smaller parties would be squeezed, making a continuation of the crumbling CDU/CSU-SPD partnership unavoidable. Instead, it was the vote of the two main parties that was squeezed, apparently convincing the SPD that there was no future for it in a Merkel-led GroKo. Now Merkel must try to make a pact with two parties that will stretch the comfort zone of an already broad Union church.

Also, the higher the vote for the AfD, the greater the pressure that the CSU, the CDU’s more conservative and reactionary Bavarian sister party, can exert on the content of the government’s coalition agreement and on future policy direction. Horst Seehofer, the leader of the CSU, had already announced his intention of driving the Union parties further to the right in the post-election coalition negotiations. The strident entry of the AfD into parliament will help him to justify his demands, including a more rigorous immigration control policy. With the CSU suffering a historic low of 38.5% – a drop of almost 11% of the vote – in its Bavarian constituency, it will be sure to press even harder for conservative reforms.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

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wionews · 7 years ago

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German Election Special: Right wing AFD leader speaks exclusively to WION

The Alternative For Germany (AFD) has taken a strident stance against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s admission of millions of refugees from Syria, Iraq and Islamic states in North Africa.

The party which is being termed “extreme right wing” is slated to change Germany’s post-WWII history dramatically on Sunday, September 24 when it is predicted to win almost 10% of the vote in general elections and enter Germany’s Bundestag or parliament for the first time.

In an exclusive chat just two days before Germany’s general election, AFD’s senior board member and Chief of Lower Saxony, Armin-Paul Hampel tells WION’s Sr Foreign Editor Padma Rao Sundarji that it is Muslims from countries with Islamist terrorist presence -and not Indians – whom his party does not welcome in Germany. Q: Armin-Paul Hampel, you are an award-winning television journalist (‘’IN GANDHI’S FOOTSTEPS”) based here in India and elsewhere and have stayed loyal to your old Indian friends. Your kids were born in India, at one point they spoke Hindi but no German. Your family had integrated well here. In 2013, you co-founded Alternative For Germany (AFD) a party that has been termed extreme rightwing by the international and German media. AFD wants no foreigners in Germany. Does that include Indians? A: Not at all ! I lived in India for 11 years, why should I change my opinion about India? In fact, even the opinion of AFD is not as you describe.

It’s a different story. We have a problem with about 1 million people from northern Africa who migrated to Germany in 2015. In keeping with the German constitution, we have to offer shelter people who are political refugees and my party agrees that such people are welcome to come to our country.

But in reality, only 15-20% of those 1 million people were political refugees. The rest had economic reasons for coming here. To that, my party says it is too much, Germany cannot afford it, we cannot finance them. And that we must find better and more solutions for people who are trying to migrate from Arab and Muslim countries into Germany. India is not affected at all. Q: All German governments have, in recent years, campaigned aggressively in India to attract Indian students and professionals to come to Germany. There is reportedly a huge shortfall of IT talent there. Your party is slated to change 70 years of German history by being the first rightwing party to enter the Bundestag on Sunday. Will AFD support the continuation of this canvassing for Indian talent? A: Absolutely – that is the point. Look, since 2013 - the year we founded our party, we have been asking for a migration law in Germany. Once, we had a blue card, similar to the American green card. AFD has been saying Germany wants people who are well-trained to come and take up jobs here. We have a need for well-trained and well-educated people and there are a lot in India.

But because we are a German-speaking country, people from India are unfortunately not so willing to come here. But we will still continue to invite them if they have good qualifications, experts in the one or another important subject, good engineers or in the IT branch. That’s not the problem.

The problem is that we have a different situation in Arab countries like Syria, Iraq and others where there is war, some other crisis or unstable governments. We are asking for better support from the United Nations, which, unbelievably reduced its budget in 2015.

We want the UN to increase its budget, send experts to Syria, Iraq and elsewhere, and armed with a robust mandate of the UN, establish safe havens over there with the help of NATO and local troops to protect such refugees.

But spending billions of Euros to get people from an 8000-mile distance – from the Bosphorus, from Arab countries – into Germany – is just wrong. These people have different cultures, different ethnic backgrounds, a different religion.

Many are not well-educated, some never went to school at all. All this makes it difficult for them to adapt to Germany. We do want to help. But we at AFD say that we should do that by investing the money right there, on the spot – for good medicare, safe housing, good education, etc. That would be far more effective than transporting 1 million people across thousands of miles to Germany. Q: You are set to make history by entering parliament on Sunday. This is an era of coalitions. And that means compromise. Which of your beliefs, goals will AFD be willing to compromise or tweak if you are part of one such coalition? A: We want to learn parliamentarianism to start with and we’ll do that by sitting in the opposition for a start. We are not thinking of joining any coalitions at this time.

Instead, we want to prepare ourselves to be able to take on greater responsibility in 2021, when the next general elections will be due.

Under normal circumstances, it is hardly possible for a party that was founded only four years ago to cross the 5% vote share hurdle to enter parliament. But we achieved 4.8 percent in 2013 itself, barely a few months after we established AFD.

This means that times are changing in Germany. Maybe a lot of people are not voting for the AFD, but are really voting for an alternative per se. Be it the CDU, SPD, FDP, Greens or Left, most Germans have lost their faith in the established parties. Those parties represent an Old Boys Club today. They are simply not capable of solving even today’s problems, let alone those of tomorrow. Q: You may say all these things. But you cannot deny that you are a right-wing party with startling views… A: Our political opponents always try to push us into that “right wing”” corner. May I tell you that we have many members who were once with the other parties? Be it CDU or SPD, be it the FDP or Greens.

Nobody can say these people all suddenly turned hardcore right wing. Actually, we at AFD are neither left nor right. We are in the centre, we are trying to establish a party which is able to balance facts, access accurate figures, think about them and then decide. This ideology of "Left" and "Right" that was created in the 20th century has been terrible not only for Germany but also Europe and must be abandoned.

We want neither Left nor Right but normal human understanding and the human brain to decide matters – that’s our way. The Old Boys Club of the established parties realise that that there is a new power emerging. That’s why they have been trying hard to keep us out. It’s like anywhere in the world. They will try again next Sunday. And they will fail. Rest assured we will be in the Bundestag with not merely 5%, but more than 10%. Q: If you are neither Left nor Right, how come the AFD attracts so many skinheads and extreme right-wing supporters? A: One has to admit that World War II and Nazism in Germany is very much still a topic. But many people reduce our entire history to those 12 terrible years. Germany is actually 1200 years old and Deutschland is a German empire. Yes, the Nazi past was part of our history, a horrible part. But we have been in existence for much longer.

Certain Germans have a problem accepting this fact. Since 1945, Germany has changed so much. We have taken responsibility in all fields, we have accepted our lot due to our history. It is the same in India. When you reflect upon your history, you feel self-confident and proud of your nation. So why should we Germans not be proud about ours, when we have given the world so much? Science, music, literature, architecture? We say - let’s be proud of those aspects. We don’t have to talk only about 12 dark years all the time, there are 1200 others we can live happily with and be proud of. Maybe some Germans have a problem with that – we don’t. Q: Opinon polls can’t predict whether the CDU will form a coalition with the FDP or others. But it will be a coalition, that’s almost certain. Which constellation would be most preferable to the AFD? A: I think all established parties will lose in terms of percentage. People have lost their faith in them. At this moment, tax rates in Germany are the highest in the world. There are a number of problems besetting crucial fields like defence, science, infrastructure, etc. No proper decisions are being taken. Therefore, it really doesn’t matter who will choose to co-habit with whom in a coalition.

It’s one big Old Boys Club and they all stick together anyway. And because they want to cling to power, they don’t have the will, nor the tools, nor the instruments, nor the will to change policies and forge a better future for our country. It’s just the Old Boys Club – and none of them matter. We want to be the new club in Germany. Q: Please summarize one last time: whom is the AFD against ? All foreigners? Only those with an Islamic background? Or foreigners who don’t adapt to Germany? After all, there are many well-integrated Germans of Turkish origin who are perfectly integrated in Germany…. A: First of all, we have people from all over the world in our country. The reason we have been asking for an immigration policy is so that we can decide exactly who is welcome and who is not.

Yes, we have a problem with fundamentalist Islamic movements. Can you name any country that does not? When our investigation agencies warn that some of the people we are taking in, may have a terrorist background – yes, we have a problem.

We say: please don’t keep them here, please send them back to where they came from. On the other hand, we are also a party pushing for, not resisting an immigration policy ! We want well-educated people, smart brains, knowledgeable, well-educated people from all over the world, who will easily integrate in Germany.

This has already been happening since decades and people from many countries moved here and are living happily. Our only problem is that we are getting huge numbers -1 million from Africa alone - with ethnic, religious and cultural backgrounds which do not fit into our country, especially when they have fundamentalist Islamist influences of the kind of the IS in Syria and Iraq.

We don’t want to accept such people. We want to live peacefully and happily in this country. We don’t want police all over the place, like in London, Berlin, Madrid or elsewhere.

We don’t want to live in constant fear that today may be our last day. But welcoming people who are well-educated and well-trained from India ? They are very welcome here and pose no problem for the Alternative For Germany at all.

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