#i think it’s funny there’s also a course called capitalism and debt. they just tell you don’t go to college because they take all your money

[ifyourereadingthisblinktwice]

conflict of sticking with my environmental planning degree plan and a potentially more stable/well paying job vs wanting to go for an arts degree in literature analysis and writing and history and culture because i love it so so much but know it wont be considered ‘useful’. FIGHT

[dxmxnxshxnx]

@blacktofade was talking about a sugar daddy au and uh, i couldn’t help myself so here

also this is dedicated to @pinkbergara and @yourlocalshaniac

Ryan Bergara sat, slumped over, at UCLA’s library computer, eyes widen in shock.

No way. No fucking way.

He blinked, hoping his brain, still weary from moving into the dorm, was just tricking him.

There, on the screen displaying his bank account information, still sat the total: -489.73.

Fuck.

“I don’t know what I’m going to do,” Ryan bemoaned, shoving another spoonful of stolen Rocky Road ice cream into his mouth.

Kelsey, the owner of said ice cream, had her eyes trained on the TV screen. If Ryan didn’t know her better, he’d probably be irritated that she wasn’t listening.

Thankfully, he did know her, and she was listening. She was just hyper focused on winning this COD match (which he totally gets). He was in her apartment, laying on the couch and mourning his debt-free life. His feet rested in her lap, as she sat cross-legged at the other end.

“I’d apply for another loan, but it takes forever to get them approved and I’ll be over-drafted while the bank figures it out,” he sighed, brows furrowed in thought. “And I don’t really want to sell my soul for school. Not to mention I’ve just spent the whole summer trying to pay off my first loan... and I had money saved up for that from high school.” Which was completely drained first semester. “Holy shit-” 

Ryan suddenly sat up, almost knocking the ice cream off his chest. He grabbed the gallon before it could, but the panicked look in his eyes didn’t disappear. “Holy shit, Kelsey, what the fuck am I gonna do for food? I only paid for my books! I still haven’t paid for tuition or my dorm or-”

Right then, the noise signaling the end of a match played, and Ryan glanced over to see the yellow line highlighting Kelsey’s name at the top of the list.

His leg was pat and he looked back to see Kelsey giving him a sympathetic look. “We’ve all been there,” she said, “I had to ask my mom for food halfway through the first semester. You can eat at my place while you figure it out!” Kelsey gave him a sweet smile and Ryan felt very, very guilty all of a sudden, stirring the melted remnants of ice cream left in the gallon.

He knew she was struggling to pay her tuition as well and she had worse luck than he did. She had to get an apartment this semester because dorms were full. She had to get a roommate because an apartment located close to campus in LA cost an arm and a leg. And then the whole food thing... Here he was complaining about his life when she had it much, much harder.

“No, Kelse, I couldn’t do that.”

“What? Why not? Listen, we broke-ass college students gotta stick together.”

God, she was always so optimistic. Ryan admired her for that. When he heard about her not getting a dorm, she just smiled and said, “It’ll be cool to live in the city! Maybe I’ll find some fun places! Ooh! And I’ll have better Wi-Fi!”

When she was looking for a roommate, she was so excited, mentioning that she “couldn’t wait to meet a cool new friend!”

Kelsey was the strongest person he knew and he worked at LA Fitness IN L.A.

“I just feel bad about it, because I know you’re struggling too.”

“Hey, I’ll be just as poor if you come over and eat a sandwich with me once in a while.” She shrugged. “I’d rather be poor and have good company than rich and be surrounded by people I hate.”

Ryan laughed, “You romantic fucking English major.”

Kelsey said nothing in response, just gave the widest grin that Ryan had ever seen.

“Come on,” she said, pushing Ryan’s feet off her lap and reaching forward to grab another controller. She handed it to Ryan, “Play some COD with me. I’ll give you something to really cry about!”

More than a dozen lost matches later (hey, Ryan was a NBA guy), Kelsey and Ryan were dancing in the kitchen to some stupid meme song that was in Kelsey’s playlist, laughing like manics. They had abandoned COD a while ago, deciding to finally listen to their rumbling tummies and making cheap ramen, lovingly flavored with the spiciest hot sauce they could find in the house.

Despite the music being loud enough to probably annoy Kelsey’s neighbors, it wasn’t loud enough to drown out the door hitting the wall.

Kelsey’s roommate was home.

“Sara!” Kelsey greeted, spinning around immediately. There, by the door, a paint-covered woman, with curly brown and eyes that gleamed impishly. Kelsey, once again, had a wild grin on her face, one that both of her friends knew said mischief. “Show us your moves!”

Sara, despite looking a bit ragged, smiled her own grin. She watched Kelsey show off her own moves for a minute, grin just growing wider and wider, before it finally broke. She laughed, as she dropping her canvas bag by the door and kicking off her shoes. Then, she was boogieing her way over to Kelsey and Ryan, doing some cheesy disco move that had Ryan doubled over and laughing and Kelsey imitating it (again, fucking romantic, cheesy English major).

As much bad luck as Kelsey had, she had just the same amount of good luck. It was like a scale; every once in a while, one side (usually the bad luck side) got a pinch more, tipping her luck that way before the other side got a pinch more and so on.

Ryan remembers the day Kelsey was interviewing roommates. He’s sure his whole class did too, because his phone was going off non-stop during a movie they were analyzing and despite being on silent and flipped over, it kept lighting up the room because Kelsey could not stop raving about this one woman she interviewed -- which, of course, was the lovely Sara. Kelsey was head over heels for Sara from the minute they met.

Sara was a Art major and, apparently, her and Kelsey had SO much chemistry that Kelsey HAD to choose Sara. 

(It was true, though. Kelsey would write something for her class and it would inspire art-blocked Sara to draw something for her class and vice versa. Kelsey was bad at cleaning and good at cooking where Sara burnt water and was basically Marie Kondo. They both loved playing video games -- they both played DPS and had a fun time creating chaos in game. Ryan would call them soulmates, but Kelsey got too embarrassed whenever he said that, so he gave her a little bit of mercy and usually kept that to himself.)

“What is going on?” Sara shouts. She does a twirl to the beat and then holds her arm up for Kelsey, signaling her to grab her hand and twirl underneath it.

“Ryan’s in debt and his life is over!” Kelsey jokes, shouting over the music. Ryan distantly remembers the time Sara’s last class gets out -- 9:30 -- and wonders if they should turn down the music. “So we’re having a Dia De Los Muertos inspired funeral for him!” She lets go of Sara’s hand and just dances in her space. Sara does not seem to mind the close proximity at all.

“Oh shit!” Sara responds, “That fucking sucks, dude!”

“Yeah! He can’t even buy food!”

Sara glances over at Ryan, who is currently doing some shitty version of the cha-cha. “Really?” Kelsey nods and even though it looks like she’s nodding with the beat, Sara knows her better. They twirl opposite directions, almost looking choreographed, and when they come back together, Sara has a look on her face, head tilted and smile tight. 

“What is it?” Kelsey asks and Sara holds up a finger. She twirls away again, this time, going farther and farther until she reaches Kelsey’s phone on the island of the kitchen. 

Stopping the music (which Kelsey’s neighbors are probably thankful for), she spins around to give the two confused faces a bright smile. “I know how Ryan -- and us, of course -- can score some free food, if you’re up to it.”

Kelsey’s face lights up, “I love free food!”

“Didn’t we just eat?” Ryan says, he’s smiling though, because his grumbling tummy agrees with Kelsey. Hey, he’s a man who works out and has a high metabolism... and he’s “growing.” He’s always hungry.

And Kelsey... well, she’s Kelsey.

“So... how are we doing this?” Ryan says, with a lopsided smile. Ryan realizes how much they look like a pack of gremlins up to no good -- which they kinda are. Suddenly, the whole “I’m in horrible debt” thing isn’t looming over this day and he realizes that Kelsey was right -- it’s hard to be miserable in like-minded company.

“So,” Sara starts, using a voice that sounds like she’s giving Kelsey and Ryan an inside scoop. Ryan now pictures them as a group of spies, preparing to infiltrate an important ball. The two in question lean in, despite them being the only people in the house, and Sara continues, “So, in Art History today, we were learning about some art that was painted by people who were. Fucked. Up. Like they were drinking absinthe and doing coke -- I was joking with my friend, Keith, telling him how they must’ve been some WILD partiers and how it put me in a partying mood. And he told me that he and his little crew were going to this party at this bar on 6th street. And, this is the best part-” 

Sara look back and forth between Ryan and Kelsey, excitedly. “Eugene was the one who got invited, so you KNOW it’s gonna be full of people who got that mun-nay! We should hit it up and see if anyone will buy us drinks and food and stuff!”

“Hell yeah!” Kelsey exclaims, “Mooching off the rich for the win! Down with capitalism!”

“You got that right!” Sara says, “Mooch the rich!”

“Mooch the rich!” Ryan agrees. He throws his fist in the air like some French revolutionary and the look of excitement that appears on Kelsey’s face is so funny, he can’t help wheezing at it.

Kelsey and Sara carry on without him, shouting “MOOCH THE RICH!” and pounding their fists in the air, getting louder and louder with each shout.

Ryan’s tearing up from laughing so hard now, because holy shit, Kelsey’s neighbors are gonna think they’re some sort of anarchist cult doing weird cult stuff behind loud music and are Sara and Kelsey doing a picket circle in the kitchen now?? 

-- fuck, Ryan loves his friends.

[randomnameless]

Chapter 5 - Ludbeck to Phinora

Siggy hates sand, Quan miscalculates and some people are worried after seeing their lord part with his son, so they talk to their friends. TFW you die because of game mechanics, RIP Quan!

the barbarian gang is here! And he isn’t in the way Jamke, it’s not because you can mop up the arena reliably that everyone can do the same. Ask Midir.

Maybe he matured or grew up seeing so many people die ? no, of course not.

Everyone’s feeling dreadful. The BGM isn’t helping.

because you saw the kids run away, like idk, birds run away from a danger when they can?

Daw! Verdanite solidarity

i know it wasn’t meant like that but the comparison with animals sensing danger isn’t that far off, maybe the devs wanted to make us believe Dew was more in touch with “nature” because he is special, or because he is a verdanite? not cool.

he got hit at 19% and a lot of people reblogged and laughed at his misfortune how can he be happy?

oh i nearly forgot him it’s not like we were close anyways - but i still tried to kill him

Oh at least you have some feelings. Unlike some sisters who murdered their douche bro i suppose

Yep, he deserved it. I bet Lex’d really get along with Bridget. Why are so afraid of your brother Azel?

again Arvis is called “decent”. Compared to the ones of Langbalt and Dannan he sure is, or pretends to be! I think the old translation was weird on this point and implied Azel might have known Viccy when it’s impossible.

Arvis is bipolar? Or sometimes he stops pretending being a decent fellow?

bleh, actually he wasn’t at home, he was in Barhara. But yeah, the thing is here. Funny how Lex can finish Azel’s sentences, they are really close!

you know that short convo is better than some supports i’ve read recently

It’s QUAN!!! Rumours sure are circulating quickly in this Jugdral continent or, again, between Quan and Ludbeck castle being seized, some months happened.

gentlemen - i understand there are no mounted archers like Selfina and i’m sure it won’t bite you in the rear right

more later than sooner, because lol!sand

Ethlyn! Again you’re having some meaningul, dreadful convo. Yes you were dragged into this and dragged your husband too, but your dad never thought about you.

Damn that Calf again a king is ill and he sends a lot of soldiers away - but he’s a badass so he is forgiven, unlike our good pal Azmur.

Well... Granvalle would have extended its Raj to Manster anyways, and the Freeges will actually sit on your throne for some decades.

Well it actually is. They have the best strategist ever on their side after all!

Fighting abroad for a just cause... It has merits, but Quan also has some duty of assisstance to Chalphy because his wife was a Chalphy. Marriage means alliances.

want to take a bet?

Yes, any help. Especially a mounted healer like you and since the Axe crusader died Quan can fight now.

ETHLYN NO

Hey - what about our mounted healer?? Siggy needs her, Raquie’s the only one otherwise (because i forgot to give a staff to Erin)

So Altena’s 3! And how can she be sleeping while Ethlyn’s riding? It’s uncomfortable!

What indeed?

second bet?

you had some sense at one point, but you lost it. Why?

oh. a child crying is a very irritating sound indeed. it totally justifies - wait no.

Oh, Leif exists! Who wants to play WTF is a timeline? or maybe he was 15 and 11 months in FE5′s first chapter!

Finn is such a reliable soldier, he can defend the capital and the Lady Ethlyn on his own!

the last person who said something like that is suddenly married to her brother you don’t want that do you Ethlyn?

Quan just can’t say no to Ethlyn’s puppy eyes!

at this point, even if Ethlyn listened to Quan and backtracked, she’d be killed by Travant so it was a die-die situation. Is it a mistake to take a woman with you on the battlefield? There are no women fighting in Thracia? And what is Eda then, a bench warmer? Or maybe Travant decided to allow women to become soldiers when Altena enrolled.

OH NO HE IS USING TERRAIN ADVANTAGE TRAVANT YOU DASTARD - it’s like killing someone who’s sitting in the privy!

YOU WISH - Finn and Glade and Leif’s ragtag army are the Lanzenritter 2.0!

Your plan would have worked, if Arvis didn’t backstab you. Dastard vs Dastard.

yes we are serious what you expect a game with pies and peeping toms?

dismount you’ll be faster! “how do i dismount we don’t know this technology as of yet!” “crap”

wild hyenas? Even if your last moments you’re racist Quan! Never change.

and you’re only saying this NOW???

i thought they’d attack my castle and die like the usual monday night!

this was actually quite clever from Travant&co, attacking Quan means destroying the guy who wields the Gae Bolg, and since Calf is old (?) Travant could have waited 5 years to attack the now defenseless Leonster. But sadly, Travant’s master plan will be later revealed to have been a part of the Sect.

GRAVE MISCALCULATION YOU MEAN

don’t forget the power of love crits - but dual gard doesn’t exist :’(

meanwhile - Reptor is shiting in his pants. If he had Langbalt’s leash, then Arvis has his?

the true mastermind is revealed!

haha, you think Velthomers respect their promises? BIG MISTAKE REPTOR

baseless - well one of your Crusader died to a peon, so i wouldn’t call that baseless.

what, they’re like those modern SWAT/commandos units, hiding under sand coloured blanket ready to Meteor randoms from afar?

and here Travant’s master idea is actually revealed to have been Arvis’ master idea. I doubt Arvis told him to attack Quan&co precisely, but he hired them to cross that stupid desert, so Quan or no Quan they’d have been here anyways. Was it just a coincidence that Quan happened to cross the desert at that time? Only FE5 will tell.

so long as they cooperate^^ Reptor doesn’t want to become the king anymore, Arvis beat him at his own game. GG Arvis.

oh he won’t forget them don’t worry about that

HAHA - you won’t have Agustria but Manster and hm, A FORMER MERCHANT REPUBLIC

you honoured the Dozel’s rights to these territories but shat on the Freeges. Freege-Velthomer relations are always kind of complicated.

hey it’s manfroy! I haven’t seen you in a long time!

Pissed but still arrogant!Arvis is the best Arvis. What, Manfroy should wear a mask?

This is wonderful - especially compared to the 2ng gen. How the mighty will fall!

Roh. if he does that he dies (or at least he thinks so) and you’re not the only guys he’s hiding.

HEY DON’T CALL THEM BUFFONS BUFFON YOURSELF AT LEAST THEY TRIED TO GET RID OF THE BROKEN WEAPON WHEN YOU WILL FAIL TO KILL JULIA OKAY?

Arvis’ discourse. Hear him well.

sadly your opinion doesn’t matter.

he will remember - when you’ll be dead he’ll tell Julius not to be sad because you’d have turned on them at one point or another.

There’s the blood of my esteemed Father, Victor?

poor Maira, he fought for a just cause but is still remembered as a dirty Loptyrian by the masses.

one true heir - Saias who? - I don’t think it was explained in side materials but why is Vala Loptyr’s sworn enemy? 

But to create this world you’ll oppress randoms and be a tyrant?

Manfroy sees right through his bullshit. Arvis wants to create his perfect world, but if can kill two birds with a stone, he’ll use that damn stone.

Arvis is aware - or has doubts - about Deedee’s past life. Or past husband at least.

it’s not like using capslock makes you more convincing your know? If you need to shout it then maybe it’s not truly the case? at least from Deedee’s pov, which is, per side materials, the reason why she’ll come just before the fireworks.

EVEN MANFROY SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF JULIA BECOMING A KING

is it some sort of foreshadowing who wants to be welcomed with meteors??

“gladly”

how has that guy managed to be here? The Rotten Ritter’s training regimen includes a climbing module? no wonder why Azel ran away

no you didn’t i didn’t screencap it. Ayra won’t abandon people at such a crucial hour because Isaachian repays their debts.

you remember this Siggy? and why should shanan be protected, no one wants to kill him in Isaach, right? 

he is 15 he is old enough to fight. I talked about this with that Leonster knight and he said 15 is a good age to fight.

“oh come on, Dew’s pretty young too!” Yeah you’ll return Ayra. in your dreams!

Ayra isn’t a soldier but she became Siggy’s friend. she’s changed from Verdane!

But what about Siggy’s BFF?

OH NO he has the plot hax band! You can’t win this one Quan! Unless you proc a lover crit!

NOOO LEONSTER’S BANE - that’s it everyone’s dead.

Even if they have horselayers!

well it failed. RIP Ethlyn! (note how she doesn’t mention Leif in her dying breath and that’s mean - Leif’s true mom is Eyvel)

by the way you keep on calling her “woman” I think you didn’t know she was his wife.

OH NO! He took a bet, he won’t die with the Gae Bolg in hand but if he doesn’t have it then...

are you playing a wicked game of chess?

worry not quan, your sacrifice will make Leif a hero!

so he won’t lose the bet, at least.

“stupid sand i hate sand”

WELP - the dastard leaves him with 1HP

At least you mention your son unlike some mom i knew - is this Quan’s way to say “avenge me Leif” like Langbalt and André did?

Siggy’s already grieving.

even on Dew’s ???

“you see my dragon is kind of hungry and i thought...”

“oh i know you want her to feed YOUR dragon!”

“stop trying to think and just go against Siggy”. Magorn apologises a lot, poor guy :’(

Meanwhile Noish destroys vaha out of spite. Forgive her failure Arvis! “nah, she was expected to fail anyways”

he has purple dragon! Is Dagda living in the mountains where those dragons have their nests? I don’t take this personaly Magorn, i played FE5.

you mean “we finally crossed half of this blaster desert”.

Seliph’s most likely crying and Oifey has to change him, but otherwise they should be okay!

Well it was most likely a Velthomer outpost to begin with so... I bet they used the city when they went on the Isaach campaign.

Quan sent a last carrier pigeon

Yep, wars are everywhere but worry not elder, they’ll stop soon!

that’s quite the detailed message you received, elder!

of course you add “it seems”. Sneaky old man, did the message said Altena was captured?

Is Ethlyn the young girl? Since everyone has been calling Altena a kid or a babe, I suppose Ethlyn’s mentioned here.

And Siggy just lost his remaining family! Be safe Seliph (and Oifey)!

[scannerly]

Journal: August 2, 2000

• Buy 150 shares of Paccar (PCAR) at the market.

Paccar is built for profit Here's where it starts to become obvious that, despite the contest atmosphere of Strategy Lab, I do not regard my investments here or elsewhere as a contest. Over the long run, I aim to beat the S&P 500, but I will not take extraordinary risks to do it. On a risk-adjusted basis, I'll obtain the best returns possible. Whom or what I can beat over the next six months is less important to me than providing some insight into how I go about accomplishing my primary long-term goal.

With that said, I present a company that I've bought lower, but still feel is a value. Paccar (PCAR) is the world's third-largest maker of heavy trucks such as Peterbilt and Kenworth. We're possibly headed into another recession, and if Paccar is anything, it is cyclical. So what on this green earth am I doing buying the stock now? Simple. There is a huge misunderstanding of the business and its valuation. And where there is misunderstanding, there is often value.

First, consider that the stock is no slug. A member of the S&P 500 Index ($INX), the stock has delivered a total return of about 140% over the last 5 years. And over the last 14 years, the stock has delivered a 384% gain, adjusted for dividends and splits. So it is a growth cyclical. One does not have to try to time the stock to reap benefits.

In fact, despite the high fixed costs endemic to its industry, Paccar has been profitable for sixty years running. With 40% of its sales coming from overseas, there is some geographic diversification. And there is a small, high-margin finance operation that accounts for about 10% of operating income and provides for a huge amount of the misunderstanding. The meat of the business is truck production.

The competitive advantage for Paccar is that the truck production is not vertically integrated. Paccar largely designs the trucks, and then assembles them from vendor-supplied parts. As Western Digital found out, this model does not work too well in an industry of rapid technological advancement. But Paccar's industry is about as stable as can be with respect to the basic technology. So Paccar becomes a more nimble player with an enviable string of decades with positive cash flow. Navistar (NAV), the more vertically integrated #2 truck maker, struggles mightily with its cash flow.

Let's look at debt Over the last 14 years, encompassing two major downturns and one minor downturn, Paccar has averaged a 16.6% return on equity. Earnings per share have grown at a 13.2% annualized clip during that time, despite a dividend payout ratio generally ranging from 35% to 70%. Historically, it appears debt is generally kept at its current range of about 50% to 70% of equity.

But the debt is where a big part of the misunderstanding occurs. In fact, companies with large finance companies inside them tend to be misunderstood the same way. Let's examine the issue. Yahoo!'s quote provider tells us the debt/equity ratio is about 1.8. Media General tells us it is about 0.7. Will the real debt/equity ratio please stand up? With a cyclical, it matters.

So we open up the latest earnings release and find that Paccar neatly separates the balance sheet into truck operations and finance operations. It turns out that the truck operations really have only $203 million in long-term debt.

The finance operation is where the billions in debt lay. But should such debt be included when evaluating the margin of safety? After all, liabilities are a part of a finance company's ongoing operations. The appropriate ratio for a finance operation is the equity/asset ratio, not the debt/equity ratio. With $953 million in finance operations equity, the finance equity/asset ratio is 19.5%. Higher is safer. Savings and loans often live in the 5% range, and commercial banks live in the 7-8% range. As far as Paccar's finance operations go, they are pretty darn conservatively leveraged. And they still attain operating margins over 20%. I do not include the finance operation liabilities in my estimation of Paccar's current enterprise value.

Why can I do this? Think of it another way -- the interest paid on its debt (which funds its loans) is a cost of sales for a finance company. And yet another -- the operating margins of over 20% -- indicate that the company is being paid at least 20% more to lend money than it costs to borrow the money.

The leading data services therefore have it right, but wrong. Just a good example of how commonly available data can be very superficial and misleading as to underlying value. � Beware to those who rely on screens for stocks!

There is also $930 million in cash and equivalents, net of the finance operations cash. The cash therefore offsets the $203 million in truck company debt, leaving net cash and equivalents left over of $727 million. Subtract that amount from the market cap of $3.12 billion to give essentially a $2.4 billion enterprise value. So not only is there a whole lot less debt in this company than the major data services would have us believe, but the true price of the company -- the enterprise value -- is less than the advertised market capitalization.

Examining cash flow Now come the ratios. Operating cash flow last year was $840 million. What is the free cash flow? Well, you need to subtract the maintenance capital expenditures. The company does not break this down. One can assume, however, that, of the annual property and capital equipment expenditures, a portion is going to maintenance and a portion is going to growth. Luckily, there is already a ballpark number for the amount going to maintenance -- it's called depreciation. For Paccar depreciation ran about $140 million in 1999. So in 1999, there was approximately $700 million in free cash flow.

Can it be that Paccar is going for less than 4 times free cash flow? Well, it is a cyclical, and Paccar is headed into a down cycle. So realize this is 4 times peak free cash flow.

In past downturns, cash flow has fallen off to varying degrees. In 1996, a minor cyclical turn, cash flow fell off only about 15%. In the steep downturn of 1990-92, cash flow fell a sharp 70% from peak to trough. Of course, it has rebounded, now up some 700% from that trough. The stock stumbled about 30% during the minor turn, and about 45% as it anticipated the 1990-91 difficulties.

The stock is some 35% off its highs and rumbling along a nine-month base. Historically, that seems like a good spot. The stock tends to bottom early in anticipation and rally strongly during a trough. The stock actually bottomed in 1990 and rallied 135% from 1990 to 1992, peaking at 474% in 1998. Now down significantly from there and with signs of a slowdown in full bloom, the stock pays a 7% dividend on the purchase price. Management policy is to pay out half of earnings, and makes up any deficiencies during the first quarter of the year. The stock is sitting above the price support it has held for about 2 years.

What makes the stock come back so strongly after downturns? Market share gains and solid strategy. In fact, during the current downturn, it has already gained 200 basis points of market share. And its new medium duty truck was ranked number one in customer satisfaction by J.D. Power -- this in a brand new, potentially huge category for Paccar.

And no, there is no catalyst that I foresee. Funny thing about catalysts -- the most meaningful ones are hardly ever expected. I'm buying 150 shares.

[itsfinancethings]

November 29, 2019 at 07:00AM

List season has hit particularly hard this year, as the end of our first full decade of social media immersion has culminated in a multi-month spree of ranking and revisiting the likes of which humanity has probably never seen before. So I feel compelled to open by thanking you, the reader, for giving yet another highly subjective hit parade your attention.

My hope is that along with a few of the zeitgeisty critical darlings (Fleabag, Watchmen, Succession) you’re sure to find in every other top 10 of 2019, this list will point you in the direction of some equally wonderful series (Vida, David Makes Man, Back to Life) that haven’t gotten the shine they deserve. What you won’t find here, incidentally, is anything from the initial slate of shows on brand-new streaming services Apple TV+ or Disney+. Whether that disappointment turns out to be a pattern or a fluke, only time will tell.

10. Back to Life (Showtime)

Few characters have embodied the saying “you can’t go home again” as fully as Back to Life creator Daisy Haggard’s Miri Matteson. Out on parole after spending half her life in jail for a crime she committed at age 18, Miri returns to her small English hometown—not because she’s missed the place, but because she has nowhere to go but her parents’ house. While enduring harassment at the hands of neighbors who will never forget what she did, she struggles to find work, companionship and peace. From the producers of Fleabag, this quieter, gentler traumedy weighs Miri’s crime against the less extreme but more malicious transgressions of her family and friends. It poses the question of whether anyone who pays their debt to society really gets a fair chance to start over—and it suggests that you can tell a lot about a community by getting to know its scapegoats.

9. When They See Us (Netflix)

Ava DuVernay is the rare popular artist fueled by an irrepressible optimism about building a better future as well as righteous anger about the past and present. She brought both of these defining traits to bear on this four-part drama about the Central Park Five—whom her miniseries rechristened the Exonerated Five. Along with exposing how and suggesting why a broken New York City criminal justice system was so eager to vilify blameless children of color in the aftermath of a monstrous act of sexual violence, DuVernay and her stellar young cast worked with the real Five to create multifaceted portraits of regular kids with hopes, ambitions and communities that suffered as a result of their incarceration. And she found echoes of their story in the current movement against mass incarceration and in the presidency of Donald Trump, who stoked public fury at the boys. When They See Us celebrates the righting of a grievous wrong while acknowledging that no vindication, or remuneration, could fully heal such deep wounds.

8. Watchmen (HBO)

For those of us who haven’t enjoyed our culture’s never-ending superhero craze so much as endured it, the news that the most prestigious of all prestige cable outlets was adapting a DC Comics book sounded kind of like a betrayal. Et tu, HBO? But we should never have doubted The Leftovers creator Damon Lindelof’s ability to make Alan Moore’s brilliant, subversive 1980s classic resonate more than three decades later. Instead of revisiting the Cold War, Lindelof set his Watchmen in an alternate 2019 where the events of the comic are canon, Robert Redford (yes, that one) has been President for decades and a white supremacist group called the Seventh Kavalry is slaughtering police who are loyal to the liberal administration. Into this mess rides masked vigilante Sister Night (Regina King, in the would-be hero role she’s long deserved), a cop who is supposed to have retired from crime-fighting. There is (or should be) enough carryover from Moore’s original to appease its cult fandom, but the show is at its best when contending with our confused, misinformed, politically polarized current reality. And in that respect, it’s every bit as intelligent, provocative and mysterious as it is entertaining.

7. Undone (Amazon)

Fans worried that BoJack Horseman mastermind Raphael Bob-Waksberg would turn out to be a one-hit wonder could take comfort in this wildly imaginative sci-fi dramedy that he co-created with Kate Purdy, about a disaffected young woman (Rosa Salazar’s Alma) who narrowly survives a catastrophic car crash. In hospital-bed visions tied to her sudden physical trauma and preexisting mental illness, Alma reunites with her long-dead father (Bob Odenkirk), learns that he was murdered and allows him to guide her on a time-travel mission to prevent the crime from happening. Yet Undone is more than just a high-concept mystery; it’s a journey into human consciousness, a beautiful example of Rotoscoped animation and a subtle meditation on family, identity and spirituality.

6. David Makes Man (OWN)

The success of Moonlight sent ripples through Hollywood, elevating writer-director Barry Jenkins and a cast including Mahershala Ali, Jharrel Jerome and Janelle Monáe to the highest echelon of their art form. It also opened industry doors for MacArthur honoree Tarell Alvin McCraney, who wrote the play on which the film was based. This year he unveiled David Makes Man, a lyrical drama about a smart, troubled 14-year-old (Akili McDowell, astonishing in his first lead role) in the Florida projects who’s struggling to get into a prestigious high school and avoid being drafted into a gang, while mourning a mentor. Though it shares a lush aesthetic and many themes—black boyhood, complicated role models, queer identity—with Moonlight, the expanded format allows McCraney to explore the people around David. His privileged best friend (Nathaniel McIntyre) suffers abuse at home. His gender-queer neighbor (Travis Coles) takes in runaway LGBT teens and plays a delicate role in the local ecosystem. And his single mother (Alana Arenas), an addict in recovery, holds down a degrading job to keep the bills paid. This isn’t just the old story of excellence and poverty battling for the soul of one extraordinary child; it’s the story of a community where both qualities must coexist.

5. Lodge 49 (AMC)

At least once a year, a series too smart for prime-time gets canned even as network execs re-up long-running bores like NCIS for 24 more functionally identical episodes. In 2019, it was Lodge 49 that ended up on the wrong side of the equation. A loose, semi-stoned account of a young man (Wyatt Russell’s Sean “Dud” Dudley) treading water in the wake of his beloved father’s death, the show expanded over the course of its first season into an allegory for the isolation of contemporary life. The Southern California landscape around Dud, an affable dreamer, and his self-destructive twin sister (Sonya Cassidy) had been scarred by pawn shops, breastaurants, temp agencies, abandoned office parks. Refuge came in the form of the titular cash-strapped fraternal organization, where Dud found two precious things late capitalism couldn’t provide: a sense of community and a mysterious, all-consuming quest. Both propelled him and his cohorts to Mexico in this year’s funny, bittersweet second season; perhaps sensing the end was near, creator Jim Gavin’s finale provided something like closure. Still, the show—which is currently being shopped to streaming services—has plenty left to say. Here’s hoping the producers find a way to, as the fans on Twitter put it, #SaveLodge49.

4. Vida (Starz)

In its short first season, creator Tanya Saracho’s Vida assembled all the elements of a great half-hour drama. Mishel Prada and Melissa Berrera shined as Mexican-American sisters who come home to LA after the death of their inscrutable mom, Vida—only to learn that the building and bar she owned are on the verge of foreclosure. It also turns out that Vida, whose homophobia destroyed her relationship with Prada’s sexually fluid Emma, had married a woman. Meanwhile, their angry teenage neighbor Mari (Chelsea Rendon) raged against gentrification. These storylines coalesced to electrifying effect in this year’s second season, testing the sisters’ tense bond as they found themselves in the crosshairs of activists who saw their desperate efforts to save the family business as acts of treachery from two stuck-up “whitinas.” Thanks largely to the talented Latinx writers and directors Saracho enlisted for the project, Vida brings lived-in nuance to issues like class, colorism and desire—yielding one of TV’s smartest and sexiest shows.

3. Succession (HBO)

Right-wing tycoons and their adult children have gotten plenty of attention in the past few years—most of it negative. So why would anyone voluntarily watch a show in which the nightmare offspring of a Mudoch-like media titan (Brian Cox) compete to become his successor? A rational argument for all the goodwill around Succession might point out the crude poetry of its dialogue (from creator Jesse Armstrong, a longtime Armando Iannucci collaborator), the fearlessness of its cast (give Jeremy Strong an Emmy just for Kendall’s rap) and the knife-twisting accuracy of this season’s digital-media satire (R.I.P. Vaulter). But on a more primal level, one informed by the increasingly rare experience of watching episodes set Twitter ablaze as they aired, I think we’re also getting a collective thrill out of a series that confirms our darkest assumptions about people who thirst for money and power. It’s a catharsis we may well deserve.

2. Russian Doll (Netflix)

To observe that there was a built-in audience for a show created by Natasha Lyonne, Amy Poehler and Leslye Headland in which Lyonne starred as a hard-partying New York City cynic might’ve been the understatement of the year. But even those of us who bought into Russian Doll from the beginning could never have predicted such a resounding triumph. In a story built like the titular nesting doll, Lyonne’s Nadia Vulvokov dies in a freak accident on the night of her 36th birthday. The twist is, instead of moving on to the afterlife or the grave, she finds herself back where she started the evening, at a party in her honor. Nadia is condemned to repeat this cycle of death and rebirth until she levels up in self-knowledge—a process that entails many cigarettes, lots of vintage East Village grit and a not-so-chance encounter with a fellow traveler. Stir in a warm, wry tone and a message of mutual aid, and you’ve got the best new TV show of 2019.

1. Fleabag (Amazon)

Fleabag began its run, in 2016, as a six-episode black comedy about a scornful, neurotic, hypersexual young woman caught in a self-destructive holding pattern of her own making. The premise didn’t immediately distinguish creator and star Phoebe Waller-Bridge as all that different from peers like Lena Dunham, Aziz Ansari and Donald Glover. But the British show’s execution was sharp, funny and daring enough to make it a cult hit on both sides of the Atlantic—and to anoint Waller-Bridge as TV’s next big thing. She went on to helm the exhilarating first season of Killing Eve, giving this year’s second and final season of Fleabag time to percolate. It returned as a more mature but, thankfully, no less audacious show, matching Waller-Bridge’s somewhat reformed Fleabag with an impossible love interest known to fans as the Hot Priest (Andrew Scott). The relationship offered a path to forgiveness for the kind of character most millennial cris de coeur have been content to leave hanging. By allowing Fleabag a measure of grace without sacrificing her life-giving vulgarity, Waller-Bridge conjured the realistic vision of redemption that has so far eluded her contemporaries—and closed out the 2010s with the decade’s single greatest season of comedy.

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Hey - Pat from StarterStory.com here with another interview.Today's interview is with Michael “Medium Rare” O’Donnell (u/mco5044) of Cave Tools, a brand that makes barbecue tools & accessoriesSome stats:Product: Barbecue Tools & AccessoriesRevenue/mo: $200,000Started: May 2013Location: PhiladelphiaFounders: 1Employees: 1Hello! Who are you and what business did you start?My name is Michael “Medium Rare” O’Donnell and I’m the owner of Cave Tools and Grill Master University.We’re known for being one of the highest quality brands of barbecue tools and accessories in the United States. Some of our most popular items include our Stainless Steel Meat Claws and our Beer Can Chicken set. In the last year, we expanded by launching Grill Master University which provides online Barbecue Masterclasses where our students can learn from World-Class Pitmasters at a fraction of the price of in person cooking classes.One of the things that make my story unique is that I was able to build Cave Tools into an over $2 million per year brand while also traveling to and living in almost 40 different countries in just the last 3 years.In 2017, we were ranked as the 3rd fastest growing company in Philadelphia and in 2018 we were ranked as the #453 fastest growing company on the Inc. 5000 list.imageWhat's your backstory and how did you come up with the idea?The true start of my journey goes back to college when I took an unpaid internship with a serial entrepreneur. I always wanted to be an entrepreneur, but I never knew anybody that was actually running a successful business. It made me realize that I could play things safe and get stuck in the rat race of a regular job or I could take responsibility for my own destiny and build a business that would help create the freedom I desired in life. Just 6 months after graduating from Penn State, I took the leap and started my own marketing agency.That experience exposed me to the world entrepreneurship and gave me the confidence to start my own marketing agency just 6 months after graduating from Penn State.I started out by building websites and running SEO and PPC campaigns for local clients. I had various ups and downs with my agency and never really made a ton of money. I was basically just surviving for the first couple of years, but the important part was that I was getting paid to learn and develop my marketing skills.When I started Cave Tools, there was no grand design to build out this giant barbecue brand. I was telling all of these companies that by working with me I could grow their business, so Cave Tools was really just a side project to put my money where my mouth was and see if I could sell my own products and make money.It’s kind of funny because I chose the name Cave Tools to leave the door open for any type of Man Cave kind of products. The reason I started with a grill brush was just that it was summertime and they were selling well. Cave Tools was a side project for the first year and a half as I learned the ropes while still running my marketing agency. When the next summer came around I decided to release a 3 piece barbecue tools set as our 2nd product line and that was the point where I decided that I would just continue doing barbecue related products. I finally made the switch to go full time on Cave Tools in late 2014 and was able to use all of the skills I had acquired to scale the company quickly.Take us through the process of designing, prototyping, and manufacturing your first product.When I first started out, my first product was as generic as they come. I literally found a supplier on Alibaba, wired a couple of thousand dollars to China, and crossed my fingers. Back then the market on Amazon was not as sophisticated so I was able to get away with this and still sell ok. There was definitely an element of good timing on my side because nowadays it would be very difficult to start this way.imageAs the company grew, we obviously got much more sophisticated and started developing custom products. I now have a team in China and regularly visit my primary manufacturing partners. If I had any advice for someone just starting out today, it would be that you truly need to differentiate your products.If you’re selling a product that looks the same as everybody else, you will eventually be forced to compete on price. There are very low barriers to entry for private label, so putting in the extra work up front of creating a unique product will pay off in the long run and allow you to build a sustainable business.Once you have proven your concept and your business is starting to grow, then I highly recommend you visit your manufacturers. Building my team in China and developing in-person relationships with my manufacturing partners have become invaluable over the years.imageDescribe the process of launching the business.My initial startup costs were only $3,500 to land my first round of inventory and start selling. For the first year and a half, we grew very slowly because I was just reinvesting the profits. The big shift for me came when I changed my relationship with money. I grew up in a middle-class family, so the idea of taking on debt was very foreign to me and not something I was inclined to do.Once I realized all businesses were just systems, the idea of leveraging debt made more sense to me. If I could create a system where every dollar I put into the business generated more money than the amount I would need to pay in interest on a loan, then I should be borrowing as much money as I could until that equation broke down.When I decided to make Cave Tools my fulltime business, I focused almost entirely on building out my systems so I could inject large amounts of cash to scale the company quickly. Over the past couple of years, I have used a combination of loans, lines of credit, and credit cards to inject hundreds of thousands of dollars into developing new products.Since launch, what has worked to attract and retain customers?One of the best methods we have used to attract and retain customers has been through search engine optimization.As you can see in the graph below, we started investing in content marketing in 2017 and were able to steadily grow our website traffic to now over 60,000-70,000 visitors per month.I originally shopped around for a content marketing agency to help us out with this piece of the business, but I didn’t think their deliverables were worth the amount they were all trying to charge. I decided that content marketing was a skill that every successful entrepreneur should have in their tool belt so instead of outsourcing it, I decided to dive in, learn as much as I could, and build out my own processes.I started by joining some SEO groups and paying for some courses. I then built out some operating procedures for on site seo and the way I wanted our articles to look. Once I had my structure down I needed to figure out how to produce content at scale. That meant creating processes for keyword research and content briefs that we could give to writers so they would know how to produce the content we wanted.I ran through the processes myself for a couple of weeks and tweaked things until I felt ready to hire an editor. My editor then became responsible for managing this entire section of the business and through weekly one on one meetings we were able to help him build his own support team and streamline our entire content creation process. We now produce between 2-4 articles per week per website at a fraction of the cost of what the content agencies would have charged for the same results.We then took that traffic and created a variety of different lead generation funnels to get people to opt into our email list. Once on our email list, people receive a series of emails that help indoctrinate them to our brand so they know like and trust us.If I sent an email every week telling our subscribers to buy a barbecue tool they would unsubscribe very quickly. Instead, we tell interesting stories and really connect with the customers on a values level to the point that they’re excited to receive emails from us. This allows us to keep top of mind awareness so that when they are ready to make a purchase they know they want to purchase from Cave Tools.imageWe’re currently sitting on a 31% interaction rate to an active email list of 62,000 people. Those kinds of numbers for email marketing are unheard of.imageimageHow are you doing today and what does the future look like?I’m in the process of changing my business model and pursuing a horizontal integration strategy. Physical products is an extremely capital intensive business and you always need to reinvest in inventory to keep the business running.By building out Grill Master University over the past year we are now focusing on high margin information products that have synergy with our physical barbecue tools.Over the past year, I spent a lot of time developing a new sister company called Grill Master University. I went out and hired a celebrity barbecue chef and then brought in a professional film crew to shoot a 5-week masterclass on how to smoke meat. The idea is that there are all of these amazing meat smokers around the country that put on live barbecue classes. But those classes can be expensive ranging from $500 all the way up to over $2,000 not including your travel and accommodation costs.By filming an entire live class, we could put it up online and make it available to the masses for less than the cost of one messed up a meal. When you’re known for being an amazing cook, everyone wants to attend your cookouts. Many of our customers are men over 50 who are empty nesters and are looking for a way to become more involved in their children's and grandchildren’s lives.At Grill Master University, our students are able to use barbecue as a tool to form deeper more meaningful relationships in their lives and become more rooted in their communities. We believe that when you’re confident at cooking, you cook more often. When you cook more often, you spend more quality time with the people you love.From a business model perspective, the idea now is that every Cave Tools customer is prequalified to be interested in our Grill Master University courses. We haven’t quite perfected the model yet, but the idea is that by having a high margin back end, I can have a sustainable competitive advantage against everybody else I am competing within the physical product space.Likewise, I am able to use the size and reach of Cave Tools to drive more customers into Grill Master University.Through starting the business, have you learned anything particularly helpful or advantageous?I could go on all day about the lessons I’ve learned and the number of times I have been knocked down. I think many people fail because they give up when things get tough. By deciding to be an entrepreneur you’re signing up for a roller coaster ride of successes and failures. One day you can be on top of the world and the very next day something completely out of your control can happen that takes you down a notch.It doesn’t matter if you are doing thousands of dollars per year or millions of dollars per year. There are always going to be obstacles at every stage of the game. You need to learn how to treat every situation good or bad as a learning opportunity. At the end of the day, the success of your business becomes an extension of yourself. The more you grow and work on your skills as an entrepreneur the larger your company will grow.What platform/tools do you use for your business?Active CampaignaHrefsClickfunnelsHelpScoutHubstaffManychatShopifyZapierThinkificWhat have been the most influential books, podcasts, or other resources?Cashflow Quadrant by Robert Kiyosaki: understanding the different types of income and where I am operating ateMyth Revisited: understanding systemsTrust Me I’m lying Confessions of a media manipulator: understanding marketingProfit First: how to manage and allocate cashflows in your businessAtlas Shrugged: philosophy and capitalismAdvice for other entrepreneurs who want to get started or are just starting out?Get out there and take action. No amount of books, courses, or preplanning can beat the person who takes action. No matter how much you think you know, you will always make mistakes and be forced to learn on the fly through experience. It’s very easy to make up a million excuses about why you’ll start your business in a few years after you have experience. This is really just a fear of failure. Go out and take action today.Also, realize that just because you start a business doesn’t mean you are married to it for life. Even if all you did was start a dropship t-shirt company or a lemonade stand, you will learn valuable skills in the process that you can then leverage later when you have a business opportunity or an idea that comes your way.Are you looking to hire for certain positions right now?At the moment we do not have any open positions, but I am always keeping my eyes open for people we could potentially work with or create a position for. If you’re interested in working together then please send an email to support@cavetools.com and we can start the conversation.Where can we go to learn more?www.cavetools.comCaveToolsGrillingwww.grillmasteruniversity.comGrillMasterUniversityIf you have any questions or comments, drop a comment below![a]Recieving my very first shipment[b]Example of an email in our indoctrination sequence. It's transparent, vulnerable, interesting, and gives good life adviceLiked this text interview? Check out the full interview with photos, tools, books, and other data.For more interviews, check out r/starter_story - I post new stories there daily.Interested in sharing your own story? Send me a PM

[everettwilkinson]

More Signs The Dollar Is Weakening…

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! I’m going to leave the Tub Thumpin’ to you today, as I’m having infusion confusion this morning. Hopefully by noon, it wears off, but right now, my head feels like it weighs 50 lbs. and is full of fog… But that won’t stop me, no sirree Bob! The FOMC Meeting Minutes were what I expected them to be, and we’ve got a couple of doves flying today… This and more for this Tub Thumpin’ Thursday for you today! The Allman Brothers greet me this morning with their song: Dreams… Which I can sheepishly say that I was having some strange ones last night!

Well, the currencies fought back against the dollar’s attempted move higher yesterday, and by the end of the day, things were as they were the previous day… The euro was trading over 1.12, the Aussie dollar (A$ ) was back to 75-cents, Gold headed back toward $ 1,260, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped back to 2.25%… And what was the cause of this turnaround Wednesday? The Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes… Once again they proved to be disappointing to the markets. Instead of giving the markets clues on “how” their balance sheet would be unwound, they instead gave them the “when”, but even the “when” was a little sketchy, but the markets seem to have figured out that the Fed will tell them all they need to know at the June meeting…

Hmmm, of course had the markets just listened to me they would have been able to go about their business today without stopping everything to hear what the Fed has to say in their minutes… For I said, right here in this letter, that the Fed would wait until June when they hiked rates again, to give any clues on their unwinding of the economy an opportunity to sneak through the alley with Sally. Really to diffuse the effects of the unwinding…. Right now, it looks like, to me that is, that the Fed will give the skinny on the “Great Unwind” or GW, in June, and defer the start of the unwinding until Sept or October.. Even though the Fed continues, as a group that is, to believe that the slowdown in the first quarter was just “transitory”, they want to wait-n-see before they commit to the GW!

So… there you have it! All wrapped up in a nutshell, what happened, and why, and what I think about it! What else do you need to start your day? Have a Great day…

Gotcha! Hey! even in my fogged brain status, I can have some fun! Well, overnight, the euro held its gains above 1.12, but the A$ fell back below 75-cents once again, as the fallout of the Moodys ratings cut of China’s debt came back to haunt the A$ … The euro-lites of Norway and Sweden are seeing their respective currencies (krone and krona) on the rally tracks, with the Norwegian krone leading the way, as the krone is in a good situation right now, that I explained the other day, regarding how the krone was getting love from the its status as a Petrol Currency, and in addition, the love is coming from being a euro-lite, with the euro on the rally tracks..

I don’t know if you noticed yesterday or not, but in the currency roundup, the S. African rand had moved below the 13 handle… And it moved further into the 12 handle yesterday and last night… The rand is a European Priced currency, which means as the number goes down, the more value to returns VS the dollar, as it takes less of the currency to equal a dollar. I’ve always said that the rand was too volatile for my blood, and that I wouldn’t touch it with “your ten foot pole”. But, I would always say that when the rand was good it was very good, and when it was bad it was very bad… And for the longest time now, the rand has NOT been very good… But I feel a rallying rand is an indication that the dollar is weakening, for if the rand is allowed to rally VS the dollar, then the dollar is weaker! Gov’t corruption, strikes, and interest rates that should be higher to attract foreign investment, have been the bugaboos for the rand, but as I said, if the rand is allowed to rally VS the dollar, as it is right now, then it could be a very good indicator that the dollar is weakening…

And there has been some confusion lately relating to the two pricing conventions used in currencies… The American Style: is simply as the price goes up, the value is increased… the euro, the A$ , kiwi, and sterling are the main American Style priced currencies. For readers who requested it many years ago, I also convert the loonie and franc to American priced currencies.. But if you called the trade desk they would quote you in European Style for these two currencies.

European priced currencies take in all the other currencies… So, don’t be confused!

The Bank of Canada (BOC) met yesterday, as scheduled, and as I thought, they left rates unchanged at 0.50%… I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again, Canada has a housing bubble in Toronto and Vancouver, they are in dire need of rate hikes to stop the bubbles from growing larger. But the Gov. of the BOC , Poloz, is not going to hike rates until he absolutely needs to, because he’s a “trade guy”, and “trade guys” always want a cheaper currency to facilitate, trade… And rate hikes would not give him a “cheaper currency”… I’ve always like Canada because of the stable banking system, plethora of raw materials that other countries will always want, and a steady Gov’t… There are some cracks in the Gov’t’s foundation right now, and the BOC is losing their grip on the economy… I’m so ticked that this has been allowed to go on in Canada this long! The Canadian dollar/ loonie though is resilient, and because of those raw materials it is underpinned, as long as the raw materials are priced right!

The OPEC meeting and NON-OPEC Oil Producing countries, meetings begin today in Vienna, Austria.. I’ve already told you a couple of times now that these meetings could very well, show the unification of extending the Oil production cuts, and in addition, I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional cuts announced! If that would happen, the price of Oil would be underpinned for sure, at least short-term… And with a stronger Oil Price, the Petrol Currencies should really be receiving some love!

I’m sitting here this morning thinking that Gold Traders read the Pfennig yesterday, and decided to listen to me, and began to mark up the Gold price… (Hey! don’t laugh! It could happen, right? Oh, come on Chuck, if that happened, you wouldn’t be sitting here in your basement at 0-dark 30 writing the Pfennig. Instead you would be celebrated as the sage of the Mississippi!) So, back on earth and reality, Gold added $ 7.90 yesterday, to close at $ 1,258.60, and is up another $ 3.90 in the early morning trading today!

Hey! remember when I featured a FWIW section story about how Arizona lawmakers had sent a bill to the Gov. for signing, that would eliminate the capital gains tax on Gold & Silver that was bought at the mint… Remember the reasoning? It was the same as exchanging one nickel and two dimes for a quarter! Well, bust my buttons! The Arizona Gov. signed the bill and it’s now a law in Arizona! WOW! Now, if we can get other states to follow, eh? Talk about a way to get physical Gold & Silver to overtake the paper trades! Think about that for a minute… Municipal Bonds are usually exempt of taxes in the state it’s issued in, and some even have Federal tax exemptions. And they’ve always been popular… But if Gold & Silver doesn’t have capital gains taxes they could become as popular with the moms and pops I’m just saying…

The price of Oil slipped back below $ 51 in the past 24 hours, but only to $ 50.95, so still trading within’ spittin’ distance of $ 51… So much weight has been put on the Oil meetings today, that the risk here is that they disappoint, and that would spring the trap door on the price of Oil… Just something to think about, given the history of the OPEC meetings, a disappointing meeting is not out of the question! But, I’m betting a Krispy Kreme to a dollar that the Oil producing countries don’t disappoint today…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has only the Trade Balance (read deficit) for April today. The usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is always there on Thursdays, so that too will print, but the more important print is the Trade Balance.. The dollar was a bit weaker in April, and so I think we’ll see the Trade Deficit back off the $ 64.8 Billion print from March…

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had the April Existing Home Sales in addition to the FOMC Meeting Minutes, and like I said yesterday would happen, Existing Home Sales dropped from 5.7 Million per year, to 5.6 Million per year… So, we saw both New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales drop in April… Hmmm, isn’t springtime one of the best times to be home shopping? I’m just throwing that out there..

Well, I’ve beaten around the bush enough the last two days regarding the Trump Budget, so I might as well bite the bullet and get to talking about it… So, here goes my attempt to make some sense from it…

Well, the Trump Budget was presented to the masses on Tuesday… I was shocked to see actual cuts to spending programs, and he says that if we stay the course with his cuts, that the U.S. would have a balanced budget by 2027… It’s been a long time since the Republican Party could even get those words out of their collective mouths… However, by the time the lawmakers on both sides of the aisle get their hands on this, the final Budget won’t look anything like the one Trump presented to them on Tuesday… I find this process to be good, but the results awful…

One thing in the budget that I did have to laugh about, well, I guess it wasn’t funny ha-ha, but , well, I’ll let you decide… The Budget makes the assumption that the U.S. economy will grow at 3% per year for the next 10 years… Hmmm… Does he know that the U.S. hasn’t achieved 3% annual growth since 2005? And that this assumption of growth would mean that the U.S. economy expanded for 222 months, consecutively… Economist are saying that this current expansion, what little this is, has become long in the tooth (since 2009)… So, I found this “assumption” to be a bit funny, in that it’s never going to happen!

The markets have shrugged off the Budget, because they know that it will come out of the lawmakers’ gauntlet with a completely different look… So, why react now, when the final product will determine their reaction? Remember the games the lawmakers tried to play a few years ago, when we had a debt ceiling debacle here in the U.S. and they came up with a plan to “cut spending over 10 years, of planned increases?” So, they planned to spend money in the future, but then decided to not spend it, or at least so much, and they call that a “cut in spending” I shake my head in disgust.. .

To recap… The FOMC Meeting Minutes were disappointing to the markets yesterday, and the dollar’s rally was cut off at the knees. From there, the currencies and metals took over and have held the conn through the overnight and morning sessions… Gold regained its mojo and rallied yesterday, and again so far this morning. The BOC left rates unchanged, which was no surprise to Chuck, who bangs on BOC Gov. Poloz, and points out the resiliency of the loonie, given all the hits that Canada is taking on these days. Chuck also points to the S. African rand as a good indicator that the dollar is getting weaker, as the rand has been allowed to rally…

For What It’s Worth… Thanks to Ed Steer who highlighted this article on Barrons in his daily letter this morning (www.edsteergoldandsilver.com ) And it’s about the Markit PMI reports yesterday that I’ve explained the markets don’t pay too much attention to, but maybe they should? You can read the article here: http://www.barrons.com/articles/markits-u-s-flash-pmi-still-looks-somewhat-underwhelming-1495549467?utm_medium=email&sslid=M7G0NDc0NDMxNzexAAA&sseid=MzM1NDAwsDA2AwA&jobid=238a56db-d950-4376-aa94-037384c6d5bb

Or, here’s your snippet: “Growth of US business activity gained a little momentum for a second successive month in May, but the upturn still looks somewhat underwhelming…

May saw an encouraging upturn in service sector growth to the fastest so far this year, buoyed by rising domestic demand. Manufacturers, on the other hand, reported the smallest rise in production since last September amid lackluster export sales.

Peter Boockvar of The Lindsey Group had this to say…

We will certainly see a Q2 economic rebound with only the degree in question. The Atlanta Fed estimate has a 4 handle which if the case would lead to around a 2.5% first half run rate if Q1 is revised up to .9% as expected. Historically though according to Markit, a 53.9 composite index in their model equates to a 1.5% annualized rate of growth.”

Chuck again… this crack in the armor of U.S. Manufacturing comes at an interesting time, given all the disappointing data… And like I said, maybe the markets should be paying more attention to this data…

Currencies today 5/25/17… American Style: A$ .7470, kiwi .7023, C$ .7440, euro 1.1220, sterling 1.2063, Swiss $ .9729, … European Style: rand 12.88, krone 8.385, SEK 8.6749, forint 274.50, zloty 3.7258, koruna 23.5620, RUB 56.35, yen 111.90, sing 1.3849, HKD 7.7915, INR 64.58, China 6.8903, peso 18.41, BRL 3.2677, Dollar Index 97.15, Oil $ 50.95, 10-year 2.26%, Silver $ 17.15, Platinum $ 947.40, Palladium $ 765.82, Gold, $ 1,259.50, and SGE Gold… $ 1,256.93

That’s it for today… Well, my beloved Cardinals saw their bats arrive from St. Louis, and they hit the ball last night, winning in L.A. Good pitching will beat good hitting, that’s an old adage my dad taught me about the game years ago… I remember telling him that if that’s the case, then it’s better to have a good pitching and hitting team! He called me a genius, which at the time I thought was a compliment… HA! Stopped by the office yesterday afternoon after my infusion and lunch with Frank. It was great to see a couple of the people there. I really wanted to just get in and out without anyone seeing me, as I was not presentable, given my 3 hour adventure at the infusion center! Well, I need to get this out of here, so I can get the response, and then send it off to you. Then I can go back to sleep! But not too long, as I have a visit with the heart doc this morning! Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song Kid Charlemagne… And with that, I’ll send you on your way to having a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday! Do some Tub Tumpin’ for me, will you? And Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler Managing Director EverBank Global Markets Creator / Editor of: A Pfennig For Your Thoughts 1-800-926-4922

http://www.everbank.com

The post More Signs The Dollar Is Weakening… appeared first on Daily Pfennig.

Daily Pfennig

from CapitalistHQ.com https://capitalisthq.com/more-signs-the-dollar-is-weakening/

[metacog]

SEA rant: What even is the point of a startup community?

I don't think I'm going to say anything new here, but I just want to rant for a bit. Mostly for my own satisfaction. (Which is to say: heads-up, this essay is going to be very biased. The context: SEA; Singapore and Malaysia in particular, and a little of Vietnam, though they’re further behind on the hype cycle.)

The 'startup community' is a pointless, self-absorbed idea designed to benefit venture capitalists. Founders would probably do better to ignore startup shop talk completely and focus on growing their businesses. If you're seriously considering doing a company, why spend much time in something so obviously tilted to the interests of the VCs?

This has several interesting implications, if true. It might mean that I can safely mark anyone who's bought into the 'startup community' as a naive shill who is in love with the vision of starting companies (the vision as painted by the VCs, of course), instead of someone who's actually serious about building businesses. But if you've got any real experience with startups, you probably already knew that.

A direct consequence is that I find it annoying to hear the words 'startup community' used in conversation with tech people. (Thankfully, I try not to have many such conversations with tech people). I also find it very perplexing when founders excessively attend startup events, hype themselves, or when they proclaim their love of, and the need to give back to, the ‘startup community’.

So think about this. Who benefits, exactly, in a 'startup community' event?

The entrepreneurs? Not exactly. You can argue that they're there to raise money, but raising money by shopping around a startup conference is like waiting till rush hour to make your way to an airport. You're competing with a hundred other people for the same destination. It’s noisy and polluted. You’re better off picking a better place and time.

Why is it that the best founders are the ones who don't spend that much time at startup events? I think it's simple: building a good company is so hard that you're basically pissing on the efforts of your colleagues and employees by attending multiple events a year. This is intuitive. And yet the founders attending conferences don't follow the example of their idols and limit their time in the bloody things. They attend pitch event after pitch event, or go after hype in the tech media. They spend hours endlessly polishing their pitch decks. They obsess over getting funded; they spend time getting featured in the tech press.

Alright, you ask, what about going to such events in order to get advice for your startup? This is quite dumb: would you ask for a psych consult at a rave? The kinds of advice that are valuable to a business are of the sort that you have to get in person, alone, tailored to your problems, away from the crowd. I've not seen anything particularly profound said on stage at a startup conference; on the other hand I have changed the way I thought about or built my org after a single lunch with a founder or VC or friend. The reason for this: advice without context is often useless. There's as much value in watching someone process your context as there is in the advice itself. You get to see how someone thinks, which is hugely valuable for modelling your problems. Consequently, it makes more sense for you to seek out personal meetings with VCs or founders for advice instead of attending high noise events.

What about the employees? The only startup employees who attend conferences are the ones who are new to the hype. (There are also employees from big companies attending such events, but the given reason for their attendance is usually that they want to find 'innovation' or 'disruption', which makes about as much sense to me as rubbing yourself against James Dyson will eventually give you good ideas).

The grapevine amongst startup employees is a lot more powerful than any adhoc connection you can make during a conference. If you wanted to, say, figure out X company's runway or find a startup where you're not going to get screwed over stock options in, you're probably better off making friends with your colleagues than you are paying 200 dollars for a conf ticket. Of course, the afterparties at such conferences are usually interesting affairs, but I’m not sure if it’s the best use of one’s time.

The real winners here are of course the venture capitalists.

It’s in the interests of the VCs to sell the idea of startups as a sexy hot thing. If startups are seen as sexy, you get more new founders. If startups are seen as difficult, you get ambitious, energetic new founders willing to work their asses for a return on the VC’s capital.

Pretty much everything in the startup community in SEA is oriented around VCs.

Fireside chats at startup events? “Hey, I did it and you can do it too! Get funded like me!”

Interviews with VCs? “How you – yes, you! – can get some of this money!”

Tours of startup offices? “Free lunches and foosball tables cater to 20 year olds with no families, willing to work long hours. But don’t think about that! Startups are a cool place to work at!”

Talks about ‘meaning’ and ‘changing the world’? “Startups aren’t just risky, money-losing bets, they’re meaningful places to spend your 20s at!”

And the journalists? They're there to get eyeballs. The founders want press to get funding and the VCs want press to convert founders so the journalists are there to give one to the other.

That’s … pretty much the textbook definition of a circle jerk, I think.

If you had a bunch of railroad tycoons or rice farmers gathering together and calling themselves the railroad community, or the farming community, what would you think of them? You would think that these people banded together for a good reason - better representation at parliament, perhaps, or the sharing of techniques to prevent upcoming worker unionisation.

But if you look at the startup community here, what do you see? You see a smattering of pretty good business-building-how-to talks (this is genuinely good), and then a deluge of hero-worship and hype building.

I don’t see a community. I see, perhaps, a flock of sheep.

There are good things to have come out of the ‘startup community’. Jason Lemkin’s “It’s possible there is now sufficient startup advice on the internet” is one. The shared knowledge and network of business owners on fund raising, term sheet gotchas, and company building stratagems are useful, for some value of useful.

Ok, actually – no. I don’t really see much of this in SEA. I’d like to hear more about recruiting in the face of outsourcing companies in Vietnam, or what to do to quickly expand to adjacent markets in the region. I think those kinds of advice would have been useful. But I’ve had to book founders to get advice for these things, or I’ve had to try things out alone. Maybe us Asians aren’t great at sharing. Our world is mostly bullshit hype-building and surface-level fireside chats and vapid interviews.

Smart Nation, woohoo!

In SEA, where the number of successful venture funded technology businesses are minuscule, the hype built by these events are doubly stupid. Or perhaps they’re deviously smart on the side of the VCs; I can’t tell.

I think two things are certain: First, in the short term, the bullshit hype cycle will continue unabated; especially given how the Singapore government has embraced its love of ‘hackers'[1] and the push towards all things Smart Nation. Second, when the performance of other mainstream investment vehicles pick up again, perhaps VC money will begin to dry up. It’s abnormal to have so many institutional investors invest as LPs in venture funds. It’s abnormal to have so many people polishing pitch decks for debt instead of building businesses that make money.

I hope – when the deflation happens – that today’s ocean of cheap credit would have left at least some good pieces of startup advice embedded in tomorrow’s dried-up seabed of sad.

At least they’ll be less people doing self-promotion! Wouldn’t that be something to look forward to!

Footnotes

[1] Something I found incredibly funny, because back in 2011 when I was a student and we tried changing the name of our club from 'linuxNUS' to 'NUS Hackers', the university objected to the use of the word 'Hackers' so strongly I had to submit a defence of the name. Several years later, when they awarded us some student body award thing (I can't remember), they called us 'Hackers Group', refusing to put NUS's hallowed name anywhere near the word. Ha! How times have changed!

[millennialeconomist]

“We Hear You: Obamacare and ‘Progress in Wrong Direction’” - My Response to The Daily Signal open letter.

Dear Daily Signal: This is regarding your reporting on Obamacare versus the American Health Care Act (RINOcare). I am, unfortunately, a conservative adjunct professor in the bowels of the progressive, neocommunist academe in the city of Philadelphia–a liberal, Democrat bastion. The level of student naiveté and faculty propagandizing for the neocommunist agenda is debilitating.

It is an acknowledged problem that college is a liberal echo chamber. However, to open with the above paragraph, then trot out the same tired conservative talking points is almost as funny as it is sad. Talk about an echo chamber.

I also worked 40 years for the Department of Defense, paying taxes from both jobs as part of my polity contribution. I have been subsidizing the government waste factory, the politically well connected who can avoid taxes, and the “low income” people who believe they are entitled to half of what I earned in those 40 years. (Federal, state, local taxes, surcharges on utilities for nonpayers, etc., add up to about 50 percent.)

So do the poor feel like they are entitled to your money, or do they just want some help because many of them were dealt a bad hand? And why “low income” in quotes? What are you trying to say? Also, while the government will never run as efficiently as a private company, I would hardly call it a waste factory. It provides essential services; without which the country could not properly function. Or at least be a lot worse off.

The one striking issue I have observed over the years is this construct that we should have equality of “outcomes” and not equality of “opportunity.” The scenario goes that if you are in the U.S., legally or illegally, you are entitled to what everybody else has, i.e. house, car, cell phone, free tuition, free health care,  guaranteed income (welfare) and so on.

As a professor he should be well aware that both the equality of outcomes and equality of opportunities is at its lowest point since the 1930s. Do you really think a minority female born to a poor family has the same opportunities as a white male born to an upper middle class family? I would say no. In order to capitalize on opportunities one needs their health, a quality education, stable housing and a stable domestic life. The cost of all of those is rising exponentially and progressively out of reach for a large swath of Americans each year.

The focus is totally on “entitlements” with no consideration for the other side of the equation–contribution.

Students believe that the only contribution people have to make is carbon dioxide (breathe) and offspring (breed). So if you breathe and breed, you are entitled to a subsidized lifestyle. We have developed a culture that Aesop warned of with the ant and grasshopper: a nation of nihilistic, free-rider, social loafers who believe they are entitled to cradle-to-grave government (taxpayer) care while having only to contribute their occasional vote to the party that promises them free stuff.

While we are both using anecdotal arguments here, I believe the opposite. I believe people inherently want to work and contribute to society. However it is very difficult to dig oneself out of poverty and assistance is needed. I believe we need to do more to assist children born into poverty, as there is a still a chance they will grow to be productive members of society. Taking away any assistance because of a few bad apples only reinforces the cycle of poverty.

This “progressive” cultural rot affects all aspects of our political, economic, and social fabric. It was rejected during this past election by middle-class Americans who work for a living to fund this progressive cancer.

The narrative I often heard post election was the working middle class and working poor rejected the “elites”. That’s why Trump was the Republican nominee rather than the career politicians that ran against him. Taking away social assistance would make these Republican voters worse off, not better.

Even the immigration debate has its roots in this cultural degradation, since we have to import unskilled, uneducated labor to take jobs “Americans won’t take,” as the liberals claim. They won’t take the jobs because they don’t have to work. The social safety net funded by taxes and debt allow them to have decent, subsistence living while contributing nothing.

If you think subsistence living is decent I would love to see you spend a year living off of government subsistence only. Report back on how decent the experience was. In terms of immigration, even Trump imports immigrant workers at his hotels. Where is the outrage there? I think the immigration situation is more a reflection on the failure of capitalism to provide for the working poor. When the jobs are so bad and pay so little that living off of government subsidies is a better option, then something is wrong.

Hence the discussion on Obamacare and a new entitlement by expanding “free health care” (Medicaid) for “the poor.” At some point, we have to stop the “free stuff” nanny-state drug of choice for progressivism and balance the equation with some form of contribution to offset the ever-increasing scope of government entitlements.

Again the quotes. Because you put “the poor” in quotes are you saying they are not really poor? Again, spend a year living their lifestyle and report back to me. And this is just a sophisticated way for this guy to say if you don’t have money then you deserve to die if get sick. Mr. Professor should read a few books about luck and randomness. Hard times can hit anyone, that’s why the social safety net is there.

This version of RINOcare does nothing either to stop or reverse this progressive cancer.

I ask my students to define progressivism. Of course they characterize it as “progress” toward all the value-laden, sociological fluff terms like social justice, economic equality, equal pay, open borders that, when challenged, they can’t define or conceptualize the implications.

Conservative ideology has similar buzzwords. Individualism, free markets, liberty... Taking any fluff term and conceptualizing it to an extreme leads to bad outcomes. Whether its conservative or liberal.

I tell them about the skin mole I had that “progressed” to cancer. It was progress, but in the wrong direction. Progress in the wrong direction can be deadly.

So what is your version of progress? Going back to the 19th century when there was a depression every 15 years or so?

I am now 65 and at the tail end of this journey, but I fear for the viability of this experiment we call the United States. This election may have been the last chance to reverse that “progress” in the wrong direction.—Anthony Cosenza

You tipped your hand! You are 65, so of course you don’t care about anyone but yourself at this point.

[itsfinancethings]

List season has hit particularly hard this year, as the end of our first full decade of social media immersion has culminated in a multi-month spree of ranking and revisiting the likes of which humanity has probably never seen before. So I feel compelled to open by thanking you, the reader, for giving yet another highly subjective hit parade your attention.

My hope is that along with a few of the zeitgeisty critical darlings (Fleabag, Watchmen, Succession) you’re sure to find in every other top 10 of 2019, this list will point you in the direction of some equally wonderful series (Vida, David Makes Man, Back to Life) that haven’t gotten the shine they deserve. What you won’t find here, incidentally, is anything from the initial slate of shows on brand-new streaming services Apple TV+ or Disney+. Whether that disappointment turns out to be a pattern or a fluke, only time will tell.

10. Back to Life (Showtime)

Few characters have embodied the saying “you can’t go home again” as fully as Back to Life creator Daisy Haggard’s Miri Matteson. Out on parole after spending half her life in jail for a crime she committed at age 18, Miri returns to her small English hometown—not because she’s missed the place, but because she has nowhere to go but her parents’ house. While enduring harassment at the hands of neighbors who will never forget what she did, she struggles to find work, companionship and peace. From the producers of Fleabag, this quieter, gentler traumedy weighs Miri’s crime against the less extreme but more malicious transgressions of her family and friends. It poses the question of whether anyone who pays their debt to society really gets a fair chance to start over—and it suggests that you can tell a lot about a community by getting to know its scapegoats.

9. When They See Us (Netflix)

Ava DuVernay is the rare popular artist fueled by an irrepressible optimism about building a better future as well as righteous anger about the past and present. She brought both of these defining traits to bear on this four-part drama about the Central Park Five—whom her miniseries rechristened the Exonerated Five. Along with exposing how and suggesting why a broken New York City criminal justice system was so eager to vilify blameless children of color in the aftermath of a monstrous act of sexual violence, DuVernay and her stellar young cast worked with the real Five to create multifaceted portraits of regular kids with hopes, ambitions and communities that suffered as a result of their incarceration. And she found echoes of their story in the current movement against mass incarceration and in the presidency of Donald Trump, who stoked public fury at the boys. When They See Us celebrates the righting of a grievous wrong while acknowledging that no vindication, or remuneration, could fully heal such deep wounds.

8. Watchmen (HBO)

For those of us who haven’t enjoyed our culture’s never-ending superhero craze so much as endured it, the news that the most prestigious of all prestige cable outlets was adapting a DC Comics book sounded kind of like a betrayal. Et tu, HBO? But we should never have doubted The Leftovers creator Damon Lindelof’s ability to make Alan Moore’s brilliant, subversive 1980s classic resonate more than three decades later. Instead of revisiting the Cold War, Lindelof set his Watchmen in an alternate 2019 where the events of the comic are canon, Robert Redford (yes, that one) has been President for decades and a white supremacist group called the Seventh Kavalry is slaughtering police who are loyal to the liberal administration. Into this mess rides masked vigilante Sister Night (Regina King, in the would-be hero role she’s long deserved), a cop who is supposed to have retired from crime-fighting. There is (or should be) enough carryover from Moore’s original to appease its cult fandom, but the show is at its best when contending with our confused, misinformed, politically polarized current reality. And in that respect, it’s every bit as intelligent, provocative and mysterious as it is entertaining.

7. Undone (Amazon)

Fans worried that BoJack Horseman mastermind Raphael Bob-Waksberg would turn out to be a one-hit wonder could take comfort in this wildly imaginative sci-fi dramedy that he co-created with Kate Purdy, about a disaffected young woman (Rosa Salazar’s Alma) who narrowly survives a catastrophic car crash. In hospital-bed visions tied to her sudden physical trauma and preexisting mental illness, Alma reunites with her long-dead father (Bob Odenkirk), learns that he was murdered and allows him to guide her on a time-travel mission to prevent the crime from happening. Yet Undone is more than just a high-concept mystery; it’s a journey into human consciousness, a beautiful example of Rotoscoped animation and a subtle meditation on family, identity and spirituality.

6. David Makes Man (OWN)

The success of Moonlight sent ripples through Hollywood, elevating writer-director Barry Jenkins and a cast including Mahershala Ali, Jharrel Jerome and Janelle Monáe to the highest echelon of their art form. It also opened industry doors for MacArthur honoree Tarell Alvin McCraney, who wrote the play on which the film was based. This year he unveiled David Makes Man, a lyrical drama about a smart, troubled 14-year-old (Akili McDowell, astonishing in his first lead role) in the Florida projects who’s struggling to get into a prestigious high school and avoid being drafted into a gang, while mourning a mentor. Though it shares a lush aesthetic and many themes—black boyhood, complicated role models, queer identity—with Moonlight, the expanded format allows McCraney to explore the people around David. His privileged best friend (Nathaniel McIntyre) suffers abuse at home. His gender-queer neighbor (Travis Coles) takes in runaway LGBT teens and plays a delicate role in the local ecosystem. And his single mother (Alana Arenas), an addict in recovery, holds down a degrading job to keep the bills paid. This isn’t just the old story of excellence and poverty battling for the soul of one extraordinary child; it’s the story of a community where both qualities must coexist.

5. Lodge 49 (AMC)

At least once a year, a series too smart for prime-time gets canned even as network execs re-up long-running bores like NCIS for 24 more functionally identical episodes. In 2019, it was Lodge 49 that ended up on the wrong side of the equation. A loose, semi-stoned account of a young man (Wyatt Russell’s Sean “Dud” Dudley) treading water in the wake of his beloved father’s death, the show expanded over the course of its first season into an allegory for the isolation of contemporary life. The Southern California landscape around Dud, an affable dreamer, and his self-destructive twin sister (Sonya Cassidy) had been scarred by pawn shops, breastaurants, temp agencies, abandoned office parks. Refuge came in the form of the titular cash-strapped fraternal organization, where Dud found two precious things late capitalism couldn’t provide: a sense of community and a mysterious, all-consuming quest. Both propelled him and his cohorts to Mexico in this year’s funny, bittersweet second season; perhaps sensing the end was near, creator Jim Gavin’s finale provided something like closure. Still, the show—which is currently being shopped to streaming services—has plenty left to say. Here’s hoping the producers find a way to, as the fans on Twitter put it, #SaveLodge49.

4. Vida (Starz)

In its short first season, creator Tanya Saracho’s Vida assembled all the elements of a great half-hour drama. Mishel Prada and Melissa Berrera shined as Mexican-American sisters who come home to LA after the death of their inscrutable mom, Vida—only to learn that the building and bar she owned are on the verge of foreclosure. It also turns out that Vida, whose homophobia destroyed her relationship with Prada’s sexually fluid Emma, had married a woman. Meanwhile, their angry teenage neighbor Mari (Chelsea Rendon) raged against gentrification. These storylines coalesced to electrifying effect in this year’s second season, testing the sisters’ tense bond as they found themselves in the crosshairs of activists who saw their desperate efforts to save the family business as acts of treachery from two stuck-up “whitinas.” Thanks largely to the talented Latinx writers and directors Saracho enlisted for the project, Vida brings lived-in nuance to issues like class, colorism and desire—yielding one of TV’s smartest and sexiest shows.

3. Succession (HBO)

Right-wing tycoons and their adult children have gotten plenty of attention in the past few years—most of it negative. So why would anyone voluntarily watch a show in which the nightmare offspring of a Mudoch-like media titan (Brian Cox) compete to become his successor? A rational argument for all the goodwill around Succession might point out the crude poetry of its dialogue (from creator Jesse Armstrong, a longtime Armando Iannucci collaborator), the fearlessness of its cast (give Jeremy Strong an Emmy just for Kendall’s rap) and the knife-twisting accuracy of this season’s digital-media satire (R.I.P. Vaulter). But on a more primal level, one informed by the increasingly rare experience of watching episodes set Twitter ablaze as they aired, I think we’re also getting a collective thrill out of a series that confirms our darkest assumptions about people who thirst for money and power. It’s a catharsis we may well deserve.

2. Russian Doll (Netflix)

To observe that there was a built-in audience for a show created by Natasha Lyonne, Amy Poehler and Leslye Headland in which Lyonne starred as a hard-partying New York City cynic might’ve been the understatement of the year. But even those of us who bought into Russian Doll from the beginning could never have predicted such a resounding triumph. In a story built like the titular nesting doll, Lyonne’s Nadia Vulvokov dies in a freak accident on the night of her 36th birthday. The twist is, instead of moving on to the afterlife or the grave, she finds herself back where she started the evening, at a party in her honor. Nadia is condemned to repeat this cycle of death and rebirth until she levels up in self-knowledge—a process that entails many cigarettes, lots of vintage East Village grit and a not-so-chance encounter with a fellow traveler. Stir in a warm, wry tone and a message of mutual aid, and you’ve got the best new TV show of 2019.

1. Fleabag (Amazon)

Fleabag began its run, in 2016, as a six-episode black comedy about a scornful, neurotic, hypersexual young woman caught in a self-destructive holding pattern of her own making. The premise didn’t immediately distinguish creator and star Phoebe Waller-Bridge as all that different from peers like Lena Dunham, Aziz Ansari and Donald Glover. But the British show’s execution was sharp, funny and daring enough to make it a cult hit on both sides of the Atlantic—and to anoint Waller-Bridge as TV’s next big thing. She went on to helm the exhilarating first season of Killing Eve, giving this year’s second and final season of Fleabag time to percolate. It returned as a more mature but, thankfully, no less audacious show, matching Waller-Bridge’s somewhat reformed Fleabag with an impossible love interest known to fans as the Hot Priest (Andrew Scott). The relationship offered a path to forgiveness for the kind of character most millennial cris de coeur have been content to leave hanging. By allowing Fleabag a measure of grace without sacrificing her life-giving vulgarity, Waller-Bridge conjured the realistic vision of redemption that has so far eluded her contemporaries—and closed out the 2010s with the decade’s single greatest season of comedy.

[everettwilkinson]

More Signs The Dollar Is Weakening…

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! I’m going to leave the Tub Thumpin’ to you today, as I’m having infusion confusion this morning. Hopefully by noon, it wears off, but right now, my head feels like it weighs 50 lbs. and is full of fog… But that won’t stop me, no sirree Bob! The FOMC Meeting Minutes were what I expected them to be, and we’ve got a couple of doves flying today… This and more for this Tub Thumpin’ Thursday for you today! The Allman Brothers greet me this morning with their song: Dreams… Which I can sheepishly say that I was having some strange ones last night!

Well, the currencies fought back against the dollar’s attempted move higher yesterday, and by the end of the day, things were as they were the previous day… The euro was trading over 1.12, the Aussie dollar (A$ ) was back to 75-cents, Gold headed back toward $ 1,260, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped back to 2.25%… And what was the cause of this turnaround Wednesday? The Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes… Once again they proved to be disappointing to the markets. Instead of giving the markets clues on “how” their balance sheet would be unwound, they instead gave them the “when”, but even the “when” was a little sketchy, but the markets seem to have figured out that the Fed will tell them all they need to know at the June meeting…

Hmmm, of course had the markets just listened to me they would have been able to go about their business today without stopping everything to hear what the Fed has to say in their minutes… For I said, right here in this letter, that the Fed would wait until June when they hiked rates again, to give any clues on their unwinding of the economy an opportunity to sneak through the alley with Sally. Really to diffuse the effects of the unwinding…. Right now, it looks like, to me that is, that the Fed will give the skinny on the “Great Unwind” or GW, in June, and defer the start of the unwinding until Sept or October.. Even though the Fed continues, as a group that is, to believe that the slowdown in the first quarter was just “transitory”, they want to wait-n-see before they commit to the GW!

So… there you have it! All wrapped up in a nutshell, what happened, and why, and what I think about it! What else do you need to start your day? Have a Great day…

Gotcha! Hey! even in my fogged brain status, I can have some fun! Well, overnight, the euro held its gains above 1.12, but the A$ fell back below 75-cents once again, as the fallout of the Moodys ratings cut of China’s debt came back to haunt the A$ … The euro-lites of Norway and Sweden are seeing their respective currencies (krone and krona) on the rally tracks, with the Norwegian krone leading the way, as the krone is in a good situation right now, that I explained the other day, regarding how the krone was getting love from the its status as a Petrol Currency, and in addition, the love is coming from being a euro-lite, with the euro on the rally tracks..

I don’t know if you noticed yesterday or not, but in the currency roundup, the S. African rand had moved below the 13 handle… And it moved further into the 12 handle yesterday and last night… The rand is a European Priced currency, which means as the number goes down, the more value to returns VS the dollar, as it takes less of the currency to equal a dollar. I’ve always said that the rand was too volatile for my blood, and that I wouldn’t touch it with “your ten foot pole”. But, I would always say that when the rand was good it was very good, and when it was bad it was very bad… And for the longest time now, the rand has NOT been very good… But I feel a rallying rand is an indication that the dollar is weakening, for if the rand is allowed to rally VS the dollar, then the dollar is weaker! Gov’t corruption, strikes, and interest rates that should be higher to attract foreign investment, have been the bugaboos for the rand, but as I said, if the rand is allowed to rally VS the dollar, as it is right now, then it could be a very good indicator that the dollar is weakening…

And there has been some confusion lately relating to the two pricing conventions used in currencies… The American Style: is simply as the price goes up, the value is increased… the euro, the A$ , kiwi, and sterling are the main American Style priced currencies. For readers who requested it many years ago, I also convert the loonie and franc to American priced currencies.. But if you called the trade desk they would quote you in European Style for these two currencies.

European priced currencies take in all the other currencies… So, don’t be confused!

The Bank of Canada (BOC) met yesterday, as scheduled, and as I thought, they left rates unchanged at 0.50%… I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again, Canada has a housing bubble in Toronto and Vancouver, they are in dire need of rate hikes to stop the bubbles from growing larger. But the Gov. of the BOC , Poloz, is not going to hike rates until he absolutely needs to, because he’s a “trade guy”, and “trade guys” always want a cheaper currency to facilitate, trade… And rate hikes would not give him a “cheaper currency”… I’ve always like Canada because of the stable banking system, plethora of raw materials that other countries will always want, and a steady Gov’t… There are some cracks in the Gov’t’s foundation right now, and the BOC is losing their grip on the economy… I’m so ticked that this has been allowed to go on in Canada this long! The Canadian dollar/ loonie though is resilient, and because of those raw materials it is underpinned, as long as the raw materials are priced right!

The OPEC meeting and NON-OPEC Oil Producing countries, meetings begin today in Vienna, Austria.. I’ve already told you a couple of times now that these meetings could very well, show the unification of extending the Oil production cuts, and in addition, I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional cuts announced! If that would happen, the price of Oil would be underpinned for sure, at least short-term… And with a stronger Oil Price, the Petrol Currencies should really be receiving some love!

I’m sitting here this morning thinking that Gold Traders read the Pfennig yesterday, and decided to listen to me, and began to mark up the Gold price… (Hey! don’t laugh! It could happen, right? Oh, come on Chuck, if that happened, you wouldn’t be sitting here in your basement at 0-dark 30 writing the Pfennig. Instead you would be celebrated as the sage of the Mississippi!) So, back on earth and reality, Gold added $ 7.90 yesterday, to close at $ 1,258.60, and is up another $ 3.90 in the early morning trading today!

Hey! remember when I featured a FWIW section story about how Arizona lawmakers had sent a bill to the Gov. for signing, that would eliminate the capital gains tax on Gold & Silver that was bought at the mint… Remember the reasoning? It was the same as exchanging one nickel and two dimes for a quarter! Well, bust my buttons! The Arizona Gov. signed the bill and it’s now a law in Arizona! WOW! Now, if we can get other states to follow, eh? Talk about a way to get physical Gold & Silver to overtake the paper trades! Think about that for a minute… Municipal Bonds are usually exempt of taxes in the state it’s issued in, and some even have Federal tax exemptions. And they’ve always been popular… But if Gold & Silver doesn’t have capital gains taxes they could become as popular with the moms and pops I’m just saying…

The price of Oil slipped back below $ 51 in the past 24 hours, but only to $ 50.95, so still trading within’ spittin’ distance of $ 51… So much weight has been put on the Oil meetings today, that the risk here is that they disappoint, and that would spring the trap door on the price of Oil… Just something to think about, given the history of the OPEC meetings, a disappointing meeting is not out of the question! But, I’m betting a Krispy Kreme to a dollar that the Oil producing countries don’t disappoint today…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has only the Trade Balance (read deficit) for April today. The usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is always there on Thursdays, so that too will print, but the more important print is the Trade Balance.. The dollar was a bit weaker in April, and so I think we’ll see the Trade Deficit back off the $ 64.8 Billion print from March…

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had the April Existing Home Sales in addition to the FOMC Meeting Minutes, and like I said yesterday would happen, Existing Home Sales dropped from 5.7 Million per year, to 5.6 Million per year… So, we saw both New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales drop in April… Hmmm, isn’t springtime one of the best times to be home shopping? I’m just throwing that out there..

Well, I’ve beaten around the bush enough the last two days regarding the Trump Budget, so I might as well bite the bullet and get to talking about it… So, here goes my attempt to make some sense from it…

Well, the Trump Budget was presented to the masses on Tuesday… I was shocked to see actual cuts to spending programs, and he says that if we stay the course with his cuts, that the U.S. would have a balanced budget by 2027… It’s been a long time since the Republican Party could even get those words out of their collective mouths… However, by the time the lawmakers on both sides of the aisle get their hands on this, the final Budget won’t look anything like the one Trump presented to them on Tuesday… I find this process to be good, but the results awful…

One thing in the budget that I did have to laugh about, well, I guess it wasn’t funny ha-ha, but , well, I’ll let you decide… The Budget makes the assumption that the U.S. economy will grow at 3% per year for the next 10 years… Hmmm… Does he know that the U.S. hasn’t achieved 3% annual growth since 2005? And that this assumption of growth would mean that the U.S. economy expanded for 222 months, consecutively… Economist are saying that this current expansion, what little this is, has become long in the tooth (since 2009)… So, I found this “assumption” to be a bit funny, in that it’s never going to happen!

The markets have shrugged off the Budget, because they know that it will come out of the lawmakers’ gauntlet with a completely different look… So, why react now, when the final product will determine their reaction? Remember the games the lawmakers tried to play a few years ago, when we had a debt ceiling debacle here in the U.S. and they came up with a plan to “cut spending over 10 years, of planned increases?” So, they planned to spend money in the future, but then decided to not spend it, or at least so much, and they call that a “cut in spending” I shake my head in disgust.. .

To recap… The FOMC Meeting Minutes were disappointing to the markets yesterday, and the dollar’s rally was cut off at the knees. From there, the currencies and metals took over and have held the conn through the overnight and morning sessions… Gold regained its mojo and rallied yesterday, and again so far this morning. The BOC left rates unchanged, which was no surprise to Chuck, who bangs on BOC Gov. Poloz, and points out the resiliency of the loonie, given all the hits that Canada is taking on these days. Chuck also points to the S. African rand as a good indicator that the dollar is getting weaker, as the rand has been allowed to rally…

For What It’s Worth… Thanks to Ed Steer who highlighted this article on Barrons in his daily letter this morning (www.edsteergoldandsilver.com ) And it’s about the Markit PMI reports yesterday that I’ve explained the markets don’t pay too much attention to, but maybe they should? You can read the article here: http://www.barrons.com/articles/markits-u-s-flash-pmi-still-looks-somewhat-underwhelming-1495549467?utm_medium=email&sslid=M7G0NDc0NDMxNzexAAA&sseid=MzM1NDAwsDA2AwA&jobid=238a56db-d950-4376-aa94-037384c6d5bb

Or, here’s your snippet: “Growth of US business activity gained a little momentum for a second successive month in May, but the upturn still looks somewhat underwhelming…

May saw an encouraging upturn in service sector growth to the fastest so far this year, buoyed by rising domestic demand. Manufacturers, on the other hand, reported the smallest rise in production since last September amid lackluster export sales.

Peter Boockvar of The Lindsey Group had this to say…

We will certainly see a Q2 economic rebound with only the degree in question. The Atlanta Fed estimate has a 4 handle which if the case would lead to around a 2.5% first half run rate if Q1 is revised up to .9% as expected. Historically though according to Markit, a 53.9 composite index in their model equates to a 1.5% annualized rate of growth.”

Chuck again… this crack in the armor of U.S. Manufacturing comes at an interesting time, given all the disappointing data… And like I said, maybe the markets should be paying more attention to this data…

Currencies today 5/25/17… American Style: A$ .7470, kiwi .7023, C$ .7440, euro 1.1220, sterling 1.2063, Swiss $ .9729, … European Style: rand 12.88, krone 8.385, SEK 8.6749, forint 274.50, zloty 3.7258, koruna 23.5620, RUB 56.35, yen 111.90, sing 1.3849, HKD 7.7915, INR 64.58, China 6.8903, peso 18.41, BRL 3.2677, Dollar Index 97.15, Oil $ 50.95, 10-year 2.26%, Silver $ 17.15, Platinum $ 947.40, Palladium $ 765.82, Gold, $ 1,259.50, and SGE Gold… $ 1,256.93

That’s it for today… Well, my beloved Cardinals saw their bats arrive from St. Louis, and they hit the ball last night, winning in L.A. Good pitching will beat good hitting, that’s an old adage my dad taught me about the game years ago… I remember telling him that if that’s the case, then it’s better to have a good pitching and hitting team! He called me a genius, which at the time I thought was a compliment… HA! Stopped by the office yesterday afternoon after my infusion and lunch with Frank. It was great to see a couple of the people there. I really wanted to just get in and out without anyone seeing me, as I was not presentable, given my 3 hour adventure at the infusion center! Well, I need to get this out of here, so I can get the response, and then send it off to you. Then I can go back to sleep! But not too long, as I have a visit with the heart doc this morning! Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song Kid Charlemagne… And with that, I’ll send you on your way to having a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday! Do some Tub Tumpin’ for me, will you? And Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler Managing Director EverBank Global Markets Creator / Editor of: A Pfennig For Your Thoughts 1-800-926-4922

http://www.everbank.com

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