#i think it favors Finland most of the possible winners

[thisismyobsessionnow]

Good morning

That running order is chaotic

Kinda hate it, but it might grow on me

[rtrixie]

with finland now joining and doubling russia's border with NATO isn't it kinda hard to see russia's decision to invade ukraine as anything other than a giant blunder?

Yea, it's undeniable at this point that Russia has lost this conflict. "Phase 1" was a total failure, and the great Donbass offensive that was supposed to be the second phase has seen them make barely any progress, and after Mariupol they didn't even attempt to take any more big cities (and they may or may not have just retreated from the Kharkov front).

Whatever response they offer to Finland joining won't really matter because no one is going to take Russia's conventional military power seriously anymore, considering a second rate post-soviet military with fancy NATO toys was enough to stop them.

The most severe failure here isn't Russia's actual ground forces though, but their military intelligence. It's understandable that online posters like myself thought they would be able to quickly overrun presumably badly equipped and low morale Ukrainian defenses, based on the information we had available. But it's inexcusable for their military intelligence, whose literal and only job it was to accurately estimate the strength and condition of the enemy forces to underestimate them that severely, to the point of outright wishful thinking.

The question is what the ultimate outcome will be now - I think a quick peace treaty is off the table, Ukraine knows that time is in their favor so they've walked back on concessions they had been willing to make before (such as backing down on NATO membership), Russia will probably not back down on any territory they've taken yet they lack the strength to make any more meaningful gains. I think it's possible that it will turn into a more violent version of the post-2015 stalemate in Donbass for the foreseeable future.

Overall, no winners here. Whatever Russia gained in terms of territory was nowhere near worth the losses they took, Ukraine lost territory, took a big economic hit and millions have been displaced, Europe shot itself in the foot economically in an attempt to damage Russia and placate America and also gave up any semblance of strategic autonomy, and America greatly accelerated the end of the US Dollar as reserve currency with their own unprecedented sanctions (that didn't have nearly as much of an effect on Russia as expected). Who knows, maybe China has a way to profit from this.

[tmblrvision]

Tmblrvision 2020 Head of Delegation Intentions Survey RESULTS!

I asked you to fill in a survey to gauge how many people were interested in joining Tmblrvision, as well as determine which countries potential Heads of Delegation were going for. This year, 35 of you filled out the survey.

In 2018, 53 people responded to the survey, ultimately receiving 52 entries. Last year, 40 people responded to the survey, ultimately receiving 43 entries. If I set the range to ±3, I am anticipating between 32 to 38 entries to Tmblrvision this year!

As expected, the majority of those thinking of participating this year have participated in previous years. The number of potential debuts is the smallest it has been (down from 16 in 2018 and 5 in 2019) but it’s still nice to see that newcomers want to participate!

Top 12 Most Wanted Countries

These are the twelve countries that at least 20% of respondents are interested in. As it did in 2018, Italy tops the list with 11 out of 35 having some intention of claiming it, unsurprising as it is one of the countries that tends to do well in Tmblrvision. Sweden, United Kingdom, Ireland, Ukraine, Australia, Belgium, France, and Norway continue to be popular picks as they have been in the past couple of years. Meanwhile, Russia is experiencing a resurgence after being less sought-after last year (even moving up to share the 2nd spot with Sweden and the UK), as is Finland, while Estonia is a relatively popular pick for the second year running.

Other Popular Countries

18 countries had 3 to 6 users interested in them, including last year’s winner and this year’s host Netherlands as well as the Special Guest Country, which can be one of either Brazil, Kazakhstan, or New Zealand. Spain seems to have fallen a bit out of favor compared to last year, while interest in Latvia is higher than in previous years. It’s nice to see Serbia have people interested in it again, and while this is a good sign that Turkey might be making a return this year, last year four people marked it as one of their potential choices and in the end it remained unclaimed.

Less-Wanted Countries

Going down the list, we unsurprisingly see a lot of MENA countries (for example, Israel), Caucasus nations (Armenia and Georgia), the Balkans (for example, Albania and Croatia), and micronations (such as Monaco). One previous winning country, Algeria, is also surprisingly unpopular, though MENA countries tend to be unpopular picks. It’s also nice to see countries absent in previous years show up on this list, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Jordan, Montenegro, Morocco, North Macedonia, San Marino, and Tunisia.

Unwanted Countries

The good news is, if you’re looking for a Plan B (or Plan C or D or even E), then these nine countries currently don’t have anyone going for them. The bad news is, well, nobody’s going for these nine countries. Rather surprisingly, one previous winning country can be found on this list: Slovenia. Most of the other countries here were also left unclaimed last year, so it’s possible that we won’t be seeing these countries return: Andorra, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Libya, and Malta. Rounding out the “unwanted” list are one Balkan country, Bulgaria, and two MENA countries, Egypt and Lebanon.

Country sign-ups are currently scheduled for 11 July 2020!

A time has not yet been set but we’ll keep you informed as necessary. This should give you at least a month to figure out your plans... and quickly change them as soon as last year’s winning HoD informs us which country they’re claiming!

[while-my-tardis-gently-weeps]

Eurovision 2016 vs 2017

.So I’ve been re-watching Eurovision from past years to get me over my PED (Post-Eurovision Depression), and I thought I’d do a comparison of this year’s songs against ones from last year, inspired by Eurosong’s post here.

Here goes:

Albania: Fairytale vs World - To be frank, I’m rather ambivalent on both songs, but I went with “World” because of Lindita’s incredible voice.

Armenia: LoveWave vs Fly with Me - Armenia always does well, and it’s not hard to see why, looking at these two songs. Neither are really my cup of tea, but I connected a bit more with “LoveWave.”

Australia: Sound of Silence vs Don’t Come Easy - Isaiah did his best, but not many can compete against the vocal tour de force that is Dami Im, and Isaiah certainly isn’t one of them.

Austria: Loin d’ici vs Running on Air - Even though both songs are quite average, the decision between the two songs are actually quite easy for me because I was completely won over by Nathan Trent’s charm, charisma, and sheer enthusiasm. And that music video, now that’s just cheating. Scenery porn at its best. 

Azerbaijan: Miracle vs Skeletons - DiHaj wins this hands down. It’s contemporary, edgy, catchy, and modern (albeit slightly marred by mystifying elements in the staging; still don’t know what the horse head is all about). Miracle, on the other hand, is, I’m sorry to say, just boring. 

Belarus: Help you fly vs Historyja majgo zyccia - This one is another no-contest: Naviband of course, undoubtedly. Not only was it sung in Belarusian, it’s also a little piece of absolute joy condensed into around 3 minutes of music. As for Ivan’s “Help you fly,” there’s something wrong with the whole production if the only memorable thing about it is the outlandish gimmick. 

Belgium: What’s the pressure vs City Lights - Perhaps against common sense, I’m going to call this a draw. I appreciated City Lights for being a contemporary song with a distinct sound, one that is completely unlike the usual Eurovision fare, but I also thought it was vastly overrated. My regard for “City Lights” only decreased further after I saw live performances of it because there’s not much stage presence and charisma to speak of coming from this one, really. On the other hand, “What’s the Pressure” might be beyond dated, but Laura’s confident, lively performance definitely made it a lot more enjoyable to sit through than, if I dare say, this year’s “City Lights.” Now, if Eurovision were a radio show, the result might be quite different but as it is, I’m for “City Lights” in terms of the song alone and “What’s the Pressure” in terms of the whole package. 

Bulgaria: If love was a crime vs Beautiful Mess - Another hard one, but this one because both songs are so good and well-deserving of their high placings. I like both, really, but I love “If love was a crime.”

Croatia: Lighthouse vs My Friend - “Lighthouse,” definitely. Mad respects to Jacques for pulling off those Jekyllesque vocals,  but “Lighthouse” is definitely the better song, both objectively and subjectively speaking. 

Cyprus: Alter Ego vs Gravity - The latter, but only barely. Possibly because “Gravity” is more recent and I remember it slightly better as a result. 

Czechia: I Stand vs My Turn - Both are quite dull, but I found Gabriela to be the better singer.

Denmark: Soldiers of Love vs Where I Am - Do I have to chose between 90s boyband raised from the dead and every single X Factor winner song ever? Okay, Anja’s the better singer so I guess it goes to her. 

Estonia: Play vs Verona - The former for sure. It’s not increasingly grating upon each repeated listen, for one. 

Finland: Sing it away vs Blackbird - I still have extremely strong feelings about Norma John’s non-qualification. Gorgeous song, excellent vocals, dark, atmospheric staging, they’ve done everything right. I just don’t get it. Last year’s NQ, on the other hand, was only to be expected. 

France: J’ai cherché vs Requiem - The French delegation definitely knows what it’s doing, choosing two stellar Nazim Khaled songs in as many years. Both are great songs, but personally I’m a lot more partial to Alma’s “Requiem.” Especially the lyrics: “Des amours meurent, des amours naissent/Les siècles passent et disparaissent/Ce que tu crois être la mort/C’est une saison et rien de plus (Love dies, love is born/Centuries pass and disappear/What you believe to be death/Is nothing but a season).” Just exquisite. 

Georgia: Midnight Gold vs Keep the Faith - I hate myself slightly for choosing “Midnight Gold” really, because that was 3 minutes of my life that I can’t get back. Unfortunately, not much more can be said for “Keep the Faith,” despite my respect for Tamara’s vocal prowess, and at least the former sounds a little different...? 

Germany: Ghost vs Perfect Life - At least nothing about Levina and “Perfect Life” is absolutely offensive to me, which is a lot more than I can say for the former, starting with the bargain sale Kyary Pamyu Pamyu imitation fashion. If anything, parts of “Perfect Life”’s lyrics actually quite tickle my fancies. 

Greece: Utopian Land vs This is Love - I don’t like either, but Utopian Land gets some brownie points for being different. And those high notes in the live version of “This is Love” is just tragic. 

Hungary: Pioneer vs Origo - I love both songs, but went for “Origo” because of the use of Hungarian, the unique sound, and the emotional delivery. I still wish he did away with the rap section though.

Iceland: Here them calling vs Paper - Both lovely songs that I wished I could have seen in the finals. I connected with the latter song more though.

Ireland: Sunlight vs Dying to Try - Nothing to remember whatsoever vs. average song that is nonetheless memorable because of Brendan Murray’s unique voice (though not necessarily favorably so). But hell, Brendan nailed those notes during his performance in the Semi so kudos to him I guess. 

Israel: Made of Stars vs I Feel Alive - “Made of Stars” by a country mile. Hovi Star’s soulful performance was mesmerizing, whereas I still think Imri got through largely because of the running order. 

Italy: No degree of separation vs Occidentali’s Karma - Italy is my favorite Big 5 nation, and one of my favorite countries overall in Eurovision. They’ve always sent outstanding entries since their comeback, and the past two years were no different. I have great love for both songs and both singers, but that said, this one is actually one of the easiest decision to make out of this whole list. In fact, “Occidentali’s Karma” is my favorite out of all the songs from both years. The combination of catchy pop tune and deep, philosophical lyrics offering commentary and satire on Western materialistic lifestyle and cultural appropriation puts it leagues above most of the songs in this set. 

Latvia: Heartbeat vs Line - “Line” doesn’t stand a chance against the great Aminata, especially when you add Justs’ passionate performance to it (he’s no Aminata either, but he’s still pretty good). 

Lithuania: I’ve been waiting for this night vs Rain of Revolution - What happened to you, Lithuania? How did you go from the glorious Donny to...I don’t even know how to describe this? If I wanted to see Pikku Myy in Eurovision I would have gone for Elina Salo, thank you very much. 

Macedonia: Dona vs Dance Alone - I guess, because Kaliopi is a much better singer.

Malta: Walk on water vs Breathlessly - Because I actually remember how the song from last year goes. 

Moldova: Falling Stars vs Hey, Mamma! - Sunstroke Project wins this hands down. It’s a simple song, but what a enjoyable one, and what a performance! Congrats to them for giving Moldova its best placing in the finals.

Montenegro: The Real Thing vs Space - Surprise, surprise. What can I say though? The guy at least has guts for donning helicopter braids. 

Netherlands: Slow down vs Lights and Shadows - Objectively speaking, I actually think “Slow down” is probably the better song of the two, but I despise country music and always had a soft spot for well-done vocals (being a huge choir geek myself), which the latter has in spades with their stunning harmonies. 

Norway: Icebreaker vs Grab the Moment - I love both songs, and I’ve always been partial to the Norwegian entries ever since I was introduced to Eurovision with Alexander Rybak’s “Fairytale.” I’m quite close to calling this another draw, really, but I’m in a more “Grab the Moment” mood today.

Poland: Color of your life vs Flashlight - Both are average songs (though the former’s lyrics are a lot less dire), but Michal sells it a lot better with his emotional performance and gothic-chic style. I still quite like Kasia’s voice, though. 

Romania: Moment of Silence vs Yodel It! - I’ve only listened to the studio version of the former, but I think “Yodel It!” wins this round. Listening to it always make me happy, and you’ve got to give them credit for making the unholy combination of yodelling and rapping work, and work well on top of that. 

Russia: You are the only one vs Flame Is Burning - I’ve got to admit, I was kind of pleased that I didn’t have to sit through “Flame Is Burning” with the travel ban and everything. Now, let’s hope Russia wasn’t serious when they said they are sending it to Portugal next year... On the other hand, while “You are the only one” is very dated as a song in and out itself, Sergey and the Russian production team definitely performed the hell out of it.

San Marino: I didn’t know vs Spirit of the Night - Because “I didn’t know” is slightly more tolerable. 

Serbia: Shelter vs In Too Deep - Another easy pick. “Shelter” is both local and contemporary, and carries a message that packs an emotional punch and connects with you on a humanitarian level. 

Slovenia: Blue and red vs On My Way - Because “Blue and red,” while average, is at least not annoying.

Spain: Say yay! vs Do It for Your Lover - Surely this one requires no commentary or explanation? Just give each song a listen.

Sweden: If I were sorry vs I Can’t Go On - Time to be honest: I hated both songs upon first listen. The thing is though, “If I were sorry” actually grew on me little by little, to the point that now I’m only ambivalent about it, whereas “I Can’t Go On” simply got worse with each repeat. 

Switzerland: Last of our kind vs Apollo - Timebelle wins this hands down, even after they traded the gorgeous red dress and classy staging of the national finals with that bizarre Belle meets Big Bird meets Hercules eyesore. Now, I actually do think I would have liked “Last of our kind” a lot were it sang by a more competent singer, but Rykka’s vocals were grating at best. And the less said about those weird movements she made on stage, the better.

Ukraine: 1944 vs Time - Heartfelt ballad that touches you to the core vs clear sign Ukraine doesn’t want us back next year, to borrow Graham Norton’s words? No contest here. 

United Kingdom: You’re not alone vs Never Give Up on You - If you asked me this question before rehearsals started, I would have said “You’re not alone,” hands down. But Lucie Jones (and the BBC production team) made “Never Give Up on You” shine, to the point where you (almost) forget it’s nothing more than a paint-by-numbers ballad that’s been done to death already. 

The Tally:

Class of 2016 - 21 vs. Class of 2017 - 20 (1 draw not included)