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getseriouser · 6 years ago

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20 THOUGHTS: Winter is Coming, but has anyone heard from the Dees?

WHY do we even bother each year with predictions

No-one gave the Eagles or Pies a sniff last pre-season and look how that turned out. And then this year’s recipe was to be “well it must be Melbourne, or perhaps Richmond again” and so far one is winless without a friend and the other is losing troops to injury and elbow tourettes by the week.

We have two undefeated sides left, the one who bombed out of last year’s elimination final staring down a couple years of pain and one who has suffered its pain but we thought not seemingly ready for anything much better just yet.

It’s a good thing it’s all so even no doubt but when the sports editor comes to you next February for final eight predictions, you could do a lot worse than just ask your Nan for her eight favourite footy mascots and just submit those, you’ll look no less foolish than said experts.

1. Firstly before the Demons, how’s the A-League and NRL totally ramping up the sook on the state of the SCG surface? The Swans and AFL are cautious but the Round Two game played fine for footy, however the round ball code is particularly aggrieved. But it’s a bit like Nokia staff having a whinge that the vodka on offer at the staff xmas party is Absolut and not Grey Goose – when people aren’t interested at all in what you’re selling 9-5 you haven’t got much right to complain about higher standards I wouldn’t think.

2. So Melbourne’s stone motherless. Could have got properly low odds on them for the flag four weeks ago, now they’ve blown out like Clive Palmer on a humid day. Yes, there’s the fancy clearance and contested ball stats but for mine its straightforward – when the ball enters the backline it just ends up in a score, there’s no defence, as it were. Three weeks in a row now teams have just waltzed it in.

3. Swans this week up there, won’t be super straightforward. This column doesn’t rate the 2019 Bloods, although big fans of the club holistically, so there’s definitely an opportunity to get this treacherous season back on track. But another loss and it’ll be 13 wins needed from 18, that’s a tall order no matter how fancied the list is.

4. As for the other end of the table – Geelong, bloody hell. Had an off Pies first week, smashed the bottom team week two and then grabbed the Crows in Adelaide week three, I don’t doubt they’re better than we anticipated but I don’t get 2007 de ja vu watching them. Giants at home a good test this week.

5. And then second is Brisbane, now that’s a similar story. West Coast play them again it’s the Eagles by a heap. North have shown very little in 2019 and then last week had a nice win against Port who like travelling as much as a couple car-sick toddlers up a mountain road. Again, better than we had thought but if Essendon really wants it they can hand the Lions their first loss this week at the ‘G and I wouldn’t blink twice. Hold your fire on those Premiership tattoos basically.

6. If Michael Christian suspends you – just challenge it. Cox one down to none, now Dusty two down to one. Feels like Chrisso is your car insurance renewal and then the Tribunal is the Retention team who are just armed and ready who’ll discount for a good yarn.

7. Giants are the best team in it so far for mine, yes there’s the easy win first up and got shown up by West Coast who weren’t going to lose on flag-unfurling night. But just on how they look and what they’re able, they have the most weapons and weapons looking ominious at that, I mean Jeremy Cameron looks on, Steve Coniglio and Lachie Whitfield look better if possible than last year, they scare me more off three weeks work than Geelong has, to this point.

8. Gaff comes back and picks up 35, oh joy. Is it too late for him to run in next month’s election, because surely he’d be the nation’s pick as preferred PM, how perfect is he? Let’s get something clear, last year’s final series and the Eagles didn’t miss him one bit. When the Pies got two kicks up late in the Granny no-one was screaming “well, its coz Gaff isn’t there, that’s why”. Nice numbers, but spare me the affirmation.

9. And to a lesser extent, Lachie Neale. Um, for those who play SuperCoach they’ll know he has always been a stellar ball magnet, and won two of the last three Freo B&Fs. He aint no mug. This ain’t no Chris Fagan reclamation project, its like someone all of a sudden trying to tell us Nutella’s grouse – yeah tell us something we don’t know.

10. Hasn’t kicked a goal yet, and he has only played Gold Coast and St Kilda, but Jesse Hogan might end up being totally ripper for Freo. 21 touches first game, 16 and 6 marks on the weekend, moving well, bloody talented to boot, if the Dockers can forget they’re the Dockers and realise they can be a decent footy side, Hogan could win them a final as soon as this year, just saying.

11. Yeah the below the knees rule stinks. Well not stinks, but has a light aroma that ye old Glen 20 won’t mask. The Tom Phillips one on the weekend needn’t be a free, but the rules state it is. Hocking, where was that rule change?

12. Majak Daw is running reasonably freely now. Bloody hell, who cares about the other 19 thoughts I’ve penned, here’s a man who, let’s be honest, “most likely” tried to take his own life (yep we’ll say it) and who can live to tell the tale. Far from me to advise anyone in that situation but the good that can come from this sad but optimistic story given his position is profound – we wish him so, so well.

13. Robbo. Chad Wingard is a two-time All Australian, not someone plucked out of the Diggers Rest reserves. He has been good for six years, hardly a “master stroke”. Robbo probably loses his shirt when he goes to a mates for a barbecue and tries Asahi for the first time, Mark, we’re well ahead of you pal.

14. So the Vegans had a protest, good on them. Nothing more ironic than seeing someone holding a “meat is murder” placard whilst wearing a leather jacket. Yeah work on your strategy a little better for next time friends.

15. Back to the footy, so we have the Blues, Dees and Roos 0-3. We’ve already covered off the Dees, but how about the other two. Firstly North, Crows and Dons the next two at Marvel then Port over there the week after. A right chance to be 0-6 and Brad Scott’s as good as done.

16. Then Carlton. We are well due for improvement, something to show they’re on the way up, maybe not finals but something better than Level B3 parking. Suns will start favourite up there this weekend, the Dogs next are good, so that could easily be 0-5 and all too familiar once again, with the Hawks down in Launy in Round Six. The old, dark Navys come Round Seven face the Roos on Mother’s Day, the losing coach is a million percent hitting up seek.com.au

17. Shining light for the Blues though, Harry McKay. Averaging five contested marks a game, leads the league. He and Charlie Curnow are a terrific combo to build around, they’ve got bloody good kids, it’s incumbent on Bolton to show his wares or move along.

18. Less than 80 tackles between the two Grand Finalists on Saturday night, the big dance last year the Pies laid 104 by themselves. If they come together again later in the year it won’t look anything like that so Pies fans can be optimistic – that’s now four losses within 12 months to the same team sure but all were not by much.

19. If Nat Fyfe can’t play this week in the Derby that’ll be a crying shame, Eagles are motoring and look terrific, and the Dockers aren’t at that level yet but showing good promise. But no Fyfe, it’s the reigning Premiers by how much.

20. Federal Election coming up soon, and the topic de jour has been Billy Shorten’s claim he wants to push 50% of all car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030. Old creep-nuts ScoMo has laughed off the suggestion, accusing that his opponent is now the ‘enemy of the ute owner’. Now Scott, Toyota sells more cars in this country than anyone and they’re committed to electrifying the entire lineup by 2025, which is five years earlier than Shorten’s policy, and it will be six years after we’ve forgotten you.

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footyplusau · 8 years ago

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It’s past time for the AFL to stand tall and show it’s support for same-sex marriage

Accepting her historic AFL Women’s best and fairest medal, Erin Phillips spoke of her sadness as a 13-year-old footy fanatic being told she could no longer play the game with the boys.

Phillips’ story highlighted so many profoundly moving tales of so many young women denied to football. She waited 17 years, but happily for the new national league she was still young enough and brilliant enough to make her historic mark.

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Pavlich says AFL draft age should be older

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FootyFix: Will the Doggies lord it over …

FootyFix: Will the Doggies lord it over Sydney again?

Rohan Connolly previews all the footy action ahead of round two in the AFL.

Pavlich says AFL draft age should be older

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Pavlich says AFL draft age should be older

Fremantle Dockers legend Matthew Pavlich believes players need more life experience before entering the system. Vision: Nine News Perth.

Smith: History on Hawks’ side

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Smith: History on Hawks’ side

Isaac Smith points out that losing in round one isn’t always such a bad omen.

Geelong cruise past Fremantle

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Geelong cruise past Fremantle

The Cats earned a comfortable away victory to start the season against Freo.

AFL plays of round 01

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AFL plays of round 01

Cloke helps Doggies put bite on the Pies, Port teenager announces himself on the big stage, Heppell provides inspiration for the Dons, Toby Green thinks he’s a key forward and Adelaide are crowned AFLW inaugural premiers.

Crows upset Giants

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Crows upset Giants

Eddie Betts starred with four goals as the Crows upset the Giants as they ran away with the game in the final two quarters.

West Coast claim confortable win over Kangaroos

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West Coast claim confortable win over …

West Coast claim confortable win over Kangaroos

Josh Kennedy’s seven goals have lead the West Coast Eagles to a comfortable win over North Melbourne, 21.10.136 to 13.15.93.

FootyFix: Will the Doggies lord it over Sydney again?

Rohan Connolly previews all the footy action ahead of round two in the AFL.

Then Phillips thanked her wife Tracy, the other mother of the couple’s 4-month-old twins, an American who travelled across the world to allow the Olympic basketball silver medallist and now Adelaide premiership star to achieve a childhood dream.

Speaking personally, this was the most touching moment of the AFLW awards on Tuesday night, just as some notable Brownlow Medal-winning family tributes have proved in the past. Remember Shane Crawford’s televisual link-up with his equally emotional mother in 1999?

Phillips is congratulated by wife Tracy after winning the AFLW’s best and fairest. Photo: Pat Scala

But speaking as an Australian, there was even more sadness – heartbreak really – to watch Phillips pay tribute to her partner in the knowledge that the couple have returned to a country that still bans them from getting married.

Football has come a long way in 17 years, but in this crucial social area the Australian government has not. New Zealand now would allow Phillips to marry the love of her life, and even Ireland and ever-growing numbers of US states and the Middle East. But, shamefully, not her own supposedly progressive country.

It is said that evil takes place when good men stand by and do nothing. I always felt it was a great failing of Julia Gillard’s prime ministership that she was so frightened, either by her national electorate or her caucus, that she could not achieve marriage equality in Australia when she clearly supported it. The same goes for Malcolm Turnbull, another obvious believer in same-sex marriage. At a time when the federal government fails to show leadership on so many fronts, a major part of the Australian community is being heartbreakingly discriminated against.

An international embarrassment is a cause of profound pain to so many Australians who believe in the sanctity of marriage.

The good news for the AFL is that it has a new chairman who has not once but twice taken a public stand on the issue.

Last week’s carefully planned corporate same-sex marriage campaign saw incoming commission chairman and Wesfarmers chief Richard Goyder step forward again for marriage equality.

In 2015 Goyder wrote to the Australian Marriage Equality Movement.

He said, in part: “While Australia continues to exclude same-sex-attracted people on this important and highly valued institution, it sends a message that discrimination on the grounds of sexual orientation remains acceptable.”

And yet while last week’s corporate campaign boasted signatures from the chiefs of the NRL, Basketball Australia and the national soccer body, AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan was not a signatory.

The prevailing view is that McLachlan and his outgoing chairman Mike Fitzpatrick prefer to vote with their feet, although, interestingly, both have avoided taking a public position on same-sex marriage.

At a recent Melbourne Press Club lunch, McLachlan spoke about same-sex relationships in AFL Women’s and made the point that the new league had helped to further normalise an issue that for most Australians has been normal for some time.

No one batted an eyelid, McLachlan pointed out, when Fairfax Media’s Samantha Lane wrote about two opposing AFLW players and their engagement, because in the eyes of the public, it was no big deal.

His view then implied that the great achievement of the AFLW in this area has been to expose the complete acceptance, to the point of indifference, to what was once considered controversial.

And yet, knowing McLachlan, this would be an issue close to his heart and I’m sure he would privately back marriage equality.

Knowing Fitzpatrick, he would do the same, although his reluctance to comment probably stems from a fear of thrusting social issues down the throat of a section of the public that believes the AFL should stick to running football.

But that ship sailed decades ago, when the competition finally but emphatically took on racism by targeting inappropriate on-field sledging. It proudly stands by that achievement.

For the sake of this exciting new breed of footballers, I hope McLachlan follows Goyder’s lead and takes a strong public position on same-sex marriage.

For now, the game is happy to take its lead from Phillips.

“Every bit of this is owed to you,” she publicly declared to Tracy. “I love you and thank you so much.” Just as the media did before the ceremony, as the couple posed on the coral carpet, when a journalist asked the couple for Tracy’s surname.

“Phillips,” was the All-Australian footballer’s reported response. “She’s my wife.”

The post It’s past time for the AFL to stand tall and show it’s support for same-sex marriage appeared first on Footy Plus.

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getseriouser · 6 years ago

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20 THOUGHTS: Who Au Pairs Wins

ELEVEN days.

The new average term for an Australian Prime Ministership?

How long the new Contiki cave diving tour is in Thailand?

Nope. How long between the end of Round 23 and the first final tomorrow night.

It's too long but as the AFL will attest, there'll be genuinely important players across the eight teams who will be able to play the first final that otherwise would not have without the bye, and that surely is a good thing.

But its ok, we had Richmond v Williamstown in the VFL prime time on Saturday night, which went well until the lights went out and caused an early three-quarter-time.

Slick.

Tell you what though, we do have four properly slick finals ahead of us.

1. Rising Star out of the way first. 15 clubs had a nominee, eight of which had two. Of those eight, three of those were top four clubs. The three clubs that didn’t have a nominee, the Dees who made the finals for the first time in 12 years, they've been building and now they've built, North, who are similar but perhaps a year or two behind, a good season nonetheless. The third? The Gold Coast, a team of youngsters rooted to the bottom four. Brisbane, St Kilda and Carlton had five nominees between them. This is such a bigger conversation than just priority picks.

2. So last year we tipped that the winner of the Geelong-Richmond Qualifying Final would go all the way and it bore fruit. So what do we see this year? Momentum will be key for any of the challengers. Look at Melbourne, if they are able to get over Geelong, and then for example Hawthorn week two and make the Prelim, they'll be on an almighty tear and hard to stop. Or the Hawks or Pies, their hardest task is Week One. If either wins and gets a home Prelim, they are my new flag favourite. If the Hawks beat the reigning premier tomorrow, good luck getting past them from there; if the Pies can win in Perth and get a home Prelim, avoiding Richmond possibly until the Grand Final, good luck stopping them too. For mine, one of the Dees, Hawks or Pies will get their way and be the one to dethrone the Tigers. Who is most likely? Dees have to win four finals, that's been done once in 20 years so perhaps not, I’m thinking the Hawks just over the Pies - their first final is at their home ground, the Pies have to travel.

3. The Pies are destined to bring back in Howe, with Treloar, they'd prefer the extra week but look set to pull the trigger too. You think back to 2016, the Bulldogs successfully brought back Macrae and Liberatore for that first final, however both had been laid off since Round 19. Treloar hasn't played since Round 14.

4. Mason Cox did not play in their previous encounter, and McGovern had a field day. That has to play a massive part if the Pies are any chance. The Pies need groundball in their forward 50, and if McGovern is taking less clean intercept marks because of the big American clunking them or bringing it to the deck, that’s a big plus.

5. Hawthorn can't afford to spend too much time trying to make Rance accountable, it will only then release an Astbury or Grimes, or, if you send a tall really deep, Roughead, McEvoy, whoever, in order to get Rance out of the action, Astbury will take that matchup anyway. It's very hard to negotiate the ideal matchup to target Rance such is the Tigers evenness in their back six. The Hawks best chance is to be strong behind the ball themselves, if their backline stands up and midfield pressure can be supreme, they'll be in a 50-50 low-scoring final, and that’s right what Clarko will want.

6. Sicily back is massive. If he can come back sharp and not rusty, he can do serious damage, not just on the intercept but launching scores. Could be the most pivotal ‘in’ of the weekend.

7. The Tigers won't tag Mitchell, so if the Brownlow-favourite can have an impact early whilst unhinged, or until Hardwick is compelled to send Jack Graham, that definitely helps the Hawks' cause.

8. The Dees are the highest scorers in the comp but of all the finalists this weekend, the Cats are the second best for defending scores against top 8 sides, only Sydney is marginally better. The worst? Melbourne, averaging almost 100 points to teams who made the eight. The Dees are good enough to kick a big, winning score but the Cats are the team to thwart that, and the Dees defence is susceptible enough for the Cats to score better than usual too. That’s why twice this year they've met smack bang in the middle. Will be a ripper.

9. If Tom Hawkins gets Oscar McDonald, he kicks a bag and Geelong are a big show. If he gets Sam Frost, who is in great nick on the big forwards, its going to be hard to for the Cats to outscore the Dees if they settle - playing their first final in yonks and showing nerve would be 'oh so Melbourne'.

10. Swans-Giants will be a slog, hard and tough inside. Giants should do it though, and do it easy-ish. The only reason the Swans won the last matchup was Phil Davis got hurt and Buddy got off the chain. Bud hardly touched the ball let alone hurt the scoreboard until Davis went off, once it became Tomlinson and Finlayson trying to curtail the champ, he went nuts and got the Swannies over the line. Chuck Kelly and Greene back in that team and the Giants 'should' progress.

11. Credit to Sydney though, they are 8 from 11 against top 8 sides, only bettered by Richmond who is 7 from 9. Compared to GWS who are 3 from 9, or the Dees 2 from 6, or worst the Pies 1 from 8, they have shown a standard good enough on paper.

12. Chaos at Freo? Not so sure. Let's see, Lachie Neale didn’t want out per se, Brisbane started this and they threw the idea past Neale's management that should he be open to it he would be very welcome at Brisbane. Neale for whatever motivation is clearly tempted by the change up. He is a South Australian boy (which I'll touch on in a sec) but he is an individual who may be motivated by a freshen up in his mid 20s and likes where the Lions are going. Does that mean the sky is now falling in at Fremantle on the back on one player, I don't think so. Until we hear of 'mass' unrest, or for one player to request a trade, because as of right now not one player has, then perhaps. But given both top five picks have re-signed in Brayshaw and Cerra, I think they are ok. Settle down.

13. And yeah, if Neale is gettable by Brisbane, what are the Crows and Power doing? He is a free agent next year but surely if he is open to a move out of the club he has been at for seven years, a return home, committing to a new long term deal at West Lakes or Alberton, should be on their radar. Unless there's a specific reason why Brisbane as a destination makes sense away from football, business, a girl, or something, surely given both clubs missed the finals and could use Neale they need to be making waves before too late.

14. The ‘One Percenter’, defined as any spoil, smother or shepherd. Alex Rance is third in the league for one percenters per game, Tom Jonas is seventh, Steven May 13th, so a real stat for defenders. The top two though, and it is both players then daylight to Rance in third, Dougal Howard and Harris Andrews. One probably a bit stiff not to get further recognised in perhaps an AA squad, the other maybe stiff not to make the final 22.

15. Jack Watts toils at Melbourne for nine years, leaves for Port to play finals football and well, um, whoops. I believe out of contract next year, I tell you, not guaranteed to stay at Port unless he goes up a gear or two, if not, what is his value to anyone else? Turns 28 next March.

16. Chad Wingard. 2015 he kicked 53 goals, a 5, two 4s and six 3s. Copping flack now for not being the player he was, but his role has changed. From the Round 12 win over Richmond he has averaged 24 touches, 5 tackles, 5 clearances, 5 inside 50s, less than a goal a game. So is he now a midfielder who should look to take that game to a new level next year, average high 20s and get over a goal a game, or go back to the dangerous forward of '15? If he leaves he'll be a great get for someone.

17. Weird off-field one, some revenue numbers for clubs, two things that stood out – firstly, after the two expansion sides and Brisbane St Kilda gets the most AFL distribution money, the three who receive the least were the two WA teams and Collingwood, and secondly, sponsorship money, top three were Sydney, Adelaide, and strangely Carlton, bottom three, Gold Coast easy, then St Kilda and Fremantle.

18. Brownlow Medal predictions are coming out, might focus more on it in the week before, but if you're looking for someone who might usurp the overwhelming favourite, Dayne Beams might be it. Best on ground in all but one of their five wins but has a tonne of 2s and 1s in some of their losses. Probably has two best on grounds in two of those losses as well. Early 20s votes not without question.

19. John Millman ey? Brilliant stuff. The fact Federer had three set points in the second yet the Aussie got out of that game somehow and then dug in to take the match in four was incredible. Has some talent too, not just a grinder, fighter type. Even if the story ends at the hand of Novak Djokovic tomorrow he'll bullet into the top 50 rankings, somewhere in the mid 30s.

20. But don't discredit the best Aussie story of the tournament, that’s got to be Alex De Minaur. Yes, Millman defeated the no.2 seed and the all-time Grand Slam record holder, but the teenager took Marin Cilic to five sets and genuinely looked capable, Cilic a consistent top ten player for years. Such has been his form and then his US Open campaign De Minaur will become the second-highest ranked teenager in the world (looks like Canadian Denis Shapovalov will be fractionally higher), which is a phenomenal achievement; Australian tennis will have three men in the top 40 for the first time in forever, and De Minaur is the shooting star at just 19.

(originally published 5 September)

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getseriouser · 7 years ago

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20 THOUGHTS: Josh Kelly to become majority investor in Channel Ten

MID-June, Round 13 is upon us, we are well and truly into the meat of the season.

Teams are out of the race, some teams are now preparing themselves for a full, validated tilt at the flag, others are now positioning themselves to scrap it out for a finals spot.

Player managers are getting busy, football media continue to squabble with one another and with the quick turnaround with the Thursday fixtures, it’s pretty full on.

Let’s get into it.

1. Alistair Clarkson gets away with a $5k donation to Freeze MND with a further $15k suspended until the end of their season, ie. August. A bit soft really. Does he get a lighter whack because he was indirect in his language, even though the message was a strong as any? Or because the league found contrition in his appearance Sunday, half-time of the Blues-Giants game, an appearance he solicited? Either way, soft.

2. Now how’s about Robbo? He has played a bit of the victim here, which I have some empathy for as he has royally copped it, from the media and the social media heroes alike. However, he has brought this upon himself. Aside from the original tweet, and the sincerity of his apology, the audacity to then request an interview and as Nathan Buckley put it “feather his own nest” is a shocking display of self-interest, ignorance and totally undoes the good work of the initial apology. To then blame ‘heat from his editor’ is too equally disappointing. Patrick Dangerfield said it best when he questioned the accountability for actions by those in the media, those who are now bonafide, rightly or wrongly, personalities of the game. Not good enough Mark. Nowhere near good enough.

3. Cracker game on Monday and you’d like to think the Dees deserved a close one after throwing a few too many wins away earlier in the season. Without their All-Australian ruckman and emerging star key forward, this team has a lovely mix of pace, grunt and skill. Fully fit, sneaking into that 5th-8th bracket, they are quintessentially the team who could scare from the bottom part of the eight ala the Dogs of last year, if they were to find some real form in the lead up to September.

4. As for Collingwood, this is going to be such a fine line you feel come year’s end. Finally you are starting to see the kind of side that could win finals break out of Buckley’s program, but has he had too much time? Their last five weeks has yielded three wins, a four-point loss and one-point loss, its good form. But whether a 9th, 10th or 11th with a bullet saves Buckley is very hard to judge. Going to be interesting to say the least.

5. Jaeger O’Meara is a story not being told enough right now. The Hawks have mortgaged the mortgage on he and Tom Mitchell, bereft of any draft pick for the best part of two years so they could get both lads into the club. The latter, Mitchell, is a lock for the All-Australian squad, so you tick that box. However, the former Rising Star winner is anything but a success yet, struggling to get on the park. Why? He has a knee with the structural integrity of David Strassman’s Chucky doll. His patella tendon was severely ruptured and he’ll never fully recover from it. Some clubs medical view, when appraising the worth of chasing the former-Sun last off-season, was he’d be lucky to ever get back to his best, perhaps ever put together a full season again. This is all predication and a prognosis is always just a prognosis, but given the last month or so’s lack of progress, it looks very gloomy for the Hawks without any real confidence for optimism.

6. How about Liam Jones on the weekend? One of the genuine good news stories of the year. Sure, Bulldogs fans have every right to shrug the performance off, they know all too well the tease he was and were happy to be rid of him, a subsequent drought-breaking flag definitely helped. But two and a half years into a three-year contract, one seen as a massive failure and a certainty not to be renewed, to take down Jono Patton comprehensively, effecting 12 spoils in a one-point win, enormous. Well done to him.

7. Essendon showed on the weekend what to expect in 2018. Don’t be too concerned about finals this year, in fact getting in and losing first week would be fantastic. But this team has such a September blue print about it, another 12 months and they are top four material, and from there of course the world is their oyster. Look out.

8. Sydney on the other hand, not so sure about them, and as a result the Bulldogs. I think we stick with the Swans being done, not rubbish and bottoming-out done but they aren’t making the finals and shouldn’t be unless the world caves in and this becomes the weirdest season ever. But we are trusting the Dogs because of last year – but we must remind ourselves, they somewhat scraped into 7th last year, they were definitely good enough for finals, but don’t remember their September campaign, as utterly brilliant as it was, was not reflective of their home and away year.

9. Some player movement stuff, because it comes in – firstly Nat Fyfe. Looks as though he will stay, but what is clear is he definitely exercised the look to a Melbourne move. St Kilda didn’t really stop their interest in Fyfe, that’s not right, what has occurred is they now believe Josh Kelly is in their grasp, which we will touch on next. So Fyfe staying at Freo is a fair bit to do with the Saints focusing their pockets of overflowing cash elsewhere. Carlton hasn’t ruled Fyfe out though, but that would be doubtful, they really like Lachie Whitfield.

10. So Kelly, he knows GWS’ offer and that’s two years at decent coin. St Kilda is offering better money and term, the Roos are offering better again. Tough call. Hard to ignore the Victorian money, and security, but I don’t think he has decided. He could stay. After thinking Josh Schache was a certainty, the idea of staying might be remerging – success over salary. The smart call might be to pick the Saints and hope you win a flag there, but this one is up in the air for sure.

11. On Schache, the Tigers are stiff. They thought they had him. They had made him a priority and were making decisions around his acquisition. His two-year deal to stay at Brisbane shocked them and now it’s about Plan B at Punt Rd.

12. Collingwood are trying to change Jackson Trengove’s mind. The Port defender come relief ruckman is out of contract, a free agent, and yet to re-sign at Alberton but the word is he is unlikely to leave. But the Pies see his value and are prepared to offer him a thought-provoking deal to bring him back home to Melbourne. This will test how persuasive the Pies can be, they’re making all the right noises to him, so watch this space.

13. Almost as a backup plan it seems, but Sydney’s Sam Reid is the Pies fall back if Trengove follows Schache’s decision to stay at their club. The Swans would prefer to move Kurt Tippett and keep Reid, but if there’s no taker for Tippett, and right now there isn’t, then they risk losing Reid who if he was to move on, a return to Melbourne and choosing his brother Ben’s club would be a fait acompli. But it appears the Pies are prioritising Trengove, mind you they may be well happy with Reid worst case anyway.

14. Jason Johannisen, I have that at 50-50. But I think he stays if I have to pick right now. There are persuasive reasons to leave Melbourne, good cash, closure from some issues here, but I credit Luke Beveridge for being a great man manager and alongside some related reasons to stay to those that see him leave, I think the Doggies hold onto the Norm Smith medallist.

15. Zak Jones is 80-20 to be a Demon next year. Melbourne has followed his progress, would like to add another piece in their build towards top four contention, and given his brother happens to be the co-captain, it’s a strong case they can put to the young Swan. I think the Dees get their man.

16. Tom Rockliff will be on the market again this off-season, in different circumstances mind you, but whilst he has performed more than admirably in recommitting to the Lions for 2017, his contract demands are turning Melbourne clubs away. Collingwood was one who was keen, who won’t be now/anymore, but others such as Hawthorn and St Kilda who are tempted by the free agent are now thinking against the idea. Rockliff would be a useful piece, and transaction for someone, but right now it’s looking long odds.

17. Quick one on Dustin Martin, if Kelly stays in Sydney then I wander if the chequebook rolls out from Moorabbin for the free agent. It would make a lot of sense; they can definitely pay him more than the Tigers.

18. Could Gaz win the Brownlow? Right now, in a Suns side that is looking a bit better than we’d first thought, he would have probably three best-on-grounds to this point, maybe accumulating 10-13 votes, which would be maybe three or four off the lead. Now, not suggesting he should be favourite, but if he is fit, even in a fledgling Gold Coast team, we know he polls and polls well. A watch.

19. The runner issues with Nick Maxwell – please, its like all the fare evaders who catch Melbourne trams every day. So many are doing it but one gets caught and we want to pigeon that person for being the one bad egg. All the runners do something similar, or at least if you scrutinise closely are conducting themselves in a way that wouldn’t please City Hall or the fans alike. We just never check or notice.

20. And finally this week, Jeremy Howe is a victim of his own prowess. His mark on Monday was that good yet failed to get the absolute kudos it might deserve because he does it every second week. Mind you, for the best marks of all time, two that still stick in my mind, one I saw live, one from the pages of history – check out Michael ‘Disco’ Roach’s screamer against Hawthorn, and then Chris Tarrant’s speccy on Queen’s Birthday many years ago, which was usurped for Mark of the Year just four days later, by Gary Moorcroft standing on Brad Johnson’s back. Biased or not, Tarrant’s mark was just massive.

(originally published June 15)

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getseriouser · 8 years ago

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20 THOUGHTS: Origin and Player Movement

SO we are in a bye week, not too much happening to be honest, so a change of column this week.

I’ll go through 20 names you will be hearing about at the end of the year with regards to free agency and the trade period, and give a update on what decisions they’re facing, who’s leading the race for some big fish come October.

But beforehand, it’s the age-old question at this time of the year given last night’s big clash in Brisbane, should the AFL bring back State of Origin.

I have bored the pants off so many with my thoughts on this, but as succinctly and concisely as one can before we move on to player movement, I believe the AFL should bring it back – here’s how and why.

When? During the pre-season, in and around the JLT Community Series. Continue to play the practice games in the format we saw this year, but for three Saturday nights in a row there’d be an Origin game.

In no order, you’d have Victoria play South Australia in Melbourne one weekend, the next perhaps South Australia playing Western Australia at the Adelaide Oval and then the third and final weekend it’d be Western Australia hosting Victoria at the new Perth Stadium.

Each of the big three states hosts a game every year, then travels to play the other opponent. Every second year would be the reverse.

There’d be no other states or Allies team for two reasons, not enough talent to make it a competitive spectacle, which rep. footy is and needs to be, nor would there be enough passion in the jumper for any amalgamated side.

If it’s the start of the year it avoids interfering with the home and away season and it is when the playing stocks are at their healthiest.

And if a player, let’s take Nat Fyfe, is to play two games for WA, he might then play both of those yet not play any of the JLT games for Fremantle. This ensures he still gets the two or so games of match practice he would have had otherwise but with no further risk to the Dockers as they approach Round One – his load and risk to injury remains the same.

Further, Fyfe would have had a pre-season back dating back to November where he has trained and practiced with his teammates constantly, so the idea of not participating in two or three JLT games in March won’t hurt the chemistry between he and his teammates for the season proper.

And finally, the players want a representative football, so does the fan base, and Origin would be far better than the hybrid bastard child that is the International Rules junket against the plumbers, postmen and mechanics of Ireland. We too have never quite cracked the optimum way to open a new season, how about 90,000 at the MCG to see Danger, Dusty and the Bont take on Buddy, Rance and Fyfe?

Anyway, we can continue this conversation every year at this time, but the proper place to do so is in the pub, so on to some quick player movement updates:

GARY ABLETT: Geelong next season, could be a “Sam Mitchell style” trade, don’t know, but it just happens. Next.

DUSTIN MARTIN: Probably not Richmond. Some say a good season for the Tigers might help convince him to stay but for mine his decision has already been made. It wouldn’t be totally binding so that might help Richmond but there are offers on the table from several clubs, across different states, the best of which will be too hard to turn down. A top three? I like Adelaide, Sydney and North Melbourne.

JOSH KELLY: North have put super huge money in front of him, and there’s a bit of the Gary Ablett about the decision, sure you weigh everything else up but the sheer dollars and term on offer are just too hard to pass up. The Saints are also having a look, as well as a few other Melbourne clubs but I don’t think for money and/or years the North offer will be surpassed. Don’t think he stays.

JOSH SCHACHE: Gone. Probably Richmond. Has/had a strong connection to Justin Lepptisch, his first coach at the Lions now a line coach at the Tigers, and I can’t see how he doesn’t come home to Victoria. Not only is he homesick, he is also out of form and being offered way more cash to move. One of those reasons might have been compelling enough, but a combination of all three and he is a certainty to move clubs in October. Collingwood a chance, has the cap.

STEVEN MAY: Out of contract, a Victorian boy, attracting interest by a few clubs but is a 50-50. His co-captain Tom Lynch attracted immense interest when he was coming out of contract, Collingwood put I believe $6m over six years to him, but he chose loyalty and I wonder if May is cut from the same cloth. If not, the Hawks and Pies are two that are interested, possibly the Dogs as well. The Hawks are contemplating mass change to not just get back into the draft and trade period given they have no cards to play right now, but to do so much they can once again be aggressive.

NAT FYFE: 40% stays at Freo, 40% becomes a Saint, 20% becomes a Blue. I think he stays because I believe Fremantle can match whatever money St Kilda or Carlton does. But St Kilda’s offer is very lucrative, and I’m unsure on the balance between staying at home, in Perth, or if there is a lure to come to Melbourne to continue his footy.

JACOB HOPPER: Will probably leave, then it’s a case of where. Richmond are keen, as are Melbourne and North. Most clubs will be, it’ll be a bit like Dion Prestia or Adam Treloar, he’ll nominate a club of choice and it’ll be a one-horse race. And that choice will be made on a number of factors as the money will be similar no matter where. But he is Victoria-bound.

JAKE LEVER: I think he stays but Essendon and Hawthorn are keen. From the Macedon Ranges, but Adelaide has Bryce Gibbs money still up their sleeve and unless stupid money comes, he might re-sign with the Crows, perhaps it’s at the end of his next deal that he might come home.

JASON JOHANNISEN: Hard one. On one hand, things aren’t super rosy at the Kennel, sure, it’s a great club, reigning premier and still building, and there’s so much going right there. But he is a Perth boy, being offered big money by Fremantle, more than the Dogs are likely to offer, and there’s some personal issues in Melbourne he might want to seek distance from. However, those same issues may want him to stay here, such are the complexities he is enduring away from the game. If I had to guess I say he is in purple next year. But I’m not confident on this one yet.

SAM REID: The Pies see him as a backup plan, a tall forward lured by the chance to play alongside his brother. Sydney are happy to move him on it seems, but would prefer something for him. He is a free agent and the terms Collingwood will offer won’t be that significant. I’d expect him in black and white next year, but the Schache situation influences this.

ZAK JONES: Carlton and Essendon are keen, and Melbourne are too. But then again most Victorian clubs would have his name on the whiteboard. Certainly seen his stocks rise this year and rightfully so, a player worthy of good money and term now off the back of some consistent performances. But right now I tip the Swans keep him, just.

TOM ROCKLIFF: Weirdly likely to go. Not sure where, the Hawks are going to be aggressive and don’t rule them out. But who knows up in Brisbane. Could well stay but perhaps there is a taker.

DEVON SMITH: Collingwood thinks they have him. We shall see. There’ll be late interest, could see them lose him, to another Melbourne club or the GWS improve their offer.

MITCH McGOVERN: To West Coast to play with his brother, next.

JACKSON TRENGOVE: Not sure on this one, there are offers in Melbourne to come home, but have no gut feel. His name will come up until he re-signs in Port, if he does. Could be a lucrative trade to a Melbourne club to help Port with their other needs, or to get further into the draft. The one player in this list whose future will largely hinge on the club’s season.

PAUL PUOPOLO: I think one of the Crows or Power make the Hawks an offer they entertain. Does it happen, my gut says yes, but at age 30, as an extra piece to an Adelaide premiership build/defence, why not?

JACK GUNSTON: The Hawk with the most currency on a team who has literally very little to trade, who had almost no draft last year and are currently coming into the 2018 draft in the 30s, whilst finishing bottom four. Could very well go.

TAYLOR DURYEA: I reckon he goes. He’ll be 27 next year, has some currency, out of contract, would be very useful at almost every other Victorian club, watch his name.

LACHIE WHITFIELD: He may stay because Josh Kelly goes, but a Victorian, out of contract, depending on how the Saints go with their attempt at nailing a big fish, he indeed may be their big fish. Keep an eye out.

SAM COLLINS: Talented Docker, slipped to pick 55 in the 2015 Draft, but a mature-bodied key defender, out of contract and from Donvale. For those in the Steven May sweepstakes, Collins will be seen as an attractive Plan B.

(originally published June 1)

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