#i have to rely on others in battleground states and blue states to not do something negligent overall because it doesn't all line up

[socctime]

I'm trying not to be, but I'm getting really scared about the upcoming election.

I'm worried about how much "they're both bad so why does it matter" and "just vote 3rd party" propaganda will affect the outcome. Because it's going to be very close either way.

[route22ny]

I am voting early. In most states, Americans no longer have to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots. Minnesota and Virginia began early in-person voting on Sept. 18. By mid-October, voters in several battleground states will also start casting their ballots. New York’s early voting period starts Oct. 24. By Election Day, millions of votes will have already been cast.

I am not voting on Nov. 3 because the lines will undoubtedly be very long. I am not voting by mail because the odds are high that the ballot will either be invalidated by election law technicalities or attacked as fraudulent — and because, even if my vote is counted, I’m worried that a ton of mail will lead to a constitutional crisis. Let me explain.

Several years ago, President Obama appointed a commission to address long lines at polling places. A report was issued with important recommendations. Not much has changed on this front, however, and the problem is exacerbated by the reluctance of poll workers to show up during the pandemic. The American Bar Association and a slew of organizations are recruiting new poll workers to ease anticipated bottlenecks. Still, problems loom.

Many states have a vote-by-mail option, and because of the health crisis, procedures have been liberalized throughout the country, including in New York, allowing people to take advantage of it. In some states, mail-in voting is being challenged in the courts, reflecting the president’s broadsides against such voting. Why is Trump hell-bent against mail-in voting? Probably because he believes that mail ballots will favor Joe Biden. It’s hard to know if he is right, but he appears convinced there will be a “blue shift” — in states where he is leading on Election Day, a subsequent counting of mail ballots will move the totals in Biden’s direction.

I don’t know if the president is right to be nervous about this shift, but Democrats should not rely on a “let’s wait until all the mail ballots are counted” attitude. If millions of Democrats vote by mail, and the machine votes on Election Day favor the president, we can expect him to undermine the legitimacy of the count after Nov. 3 — abetted, no doubt, by an avalanche of lawsuits to enjoin the counting of these mailed ballots.

A surge in mail-in votes could therefore prevent a state from determining its winner for many weeks. Why is this a problem? Aside from the political instability this would cause, the law requires that each state’s victorious presidential electors meet and vote for president on Dec. 14. If even a few states are overwhelmed by mail votes and lawsuits contesting their validity, and they fail to name presidential electors by mid-December, two scenarios could occur — neither pretty.

On one hand, with the total number of electors reduced, the magic number to win the Electoral College is likewise lowered. The Constitution requires a majority of the “whole number of Electors appointed.” A candidate could win with fewer than the 270 votes normally required.

On the other hand, if failure by a state to name electors prevents Trump or Biden from reaching a majority, the constitutional provision requiring the House of Representatives to elect a president could be invoked.

The procedure followed by the House is even more undemocratic than the Electoral College. Each state, whether large or small, has one vote, and whichever party controls a state’s delegation would deliver its vote to Trump or Biden. Even if Democrats retain or increase their overall control of the House this November, it’s the party controlling a majority of the state delegations that matters for this procedure. Currently, Republicans have 26, the magic number for the House to elect a president.

As if these two possibilities aren’t troubling enough, there is another outcome that could upend the election. If a state is dithering over hundreds of thousands of paper ballots, its state legislature may try to name electors directly — without so much as a nod to the apparent winner of the popular vote. In 21 states, Republicans control the legislature and governor’s mansion. Would they dare short-circuit the counting to simply name a Trump slate of electors?

So I am voting early, in person. I do not want mail ballots to overwhelm the process and potentially cause election chaos. The more votes cast on or before Election Day, the more likely the election will be over by Nov. 3. Some important states, like Pennsylvania, do not have this option. Those of us who can vote early, though, should do so.

Goldfeder, is special counsel at the law firm Stroock & Stroock & Lavan LLP and teaches election law at Fordham Law School.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

The overarching story of recent American elections is that 1) voters of color, who have long been Democratic-leaning, are a growing share of the electorate; 2) white voters with college degrees are increasingly shifting to the Democrats; and 3) white voters without degrees are aligning more with the GOP. But those trends, because they get so much focus, can warp our understanding of the electorate as it exists right now. Demographics are not yet destiny in American elections — millions of people don’t align with the party their race and ethnicity or education would predict. Case in point: In 2016, more than a third of President Trump’s support nationally came from non-Hispanic white Americans with college degrees (26 percent) and Asian, Black and Hispanic voters (12 percent), according to Pew Research Center data. On the flip side, about a quarter of Hillary Clinton’s supporters were non-Hispanic white Americans without degrees.

White Americans without degrees aren’t as likely to vote for Trump as in 2016, according to polls — which partly explains why Biden leads in national polls and key swing states like Pennsylvania. But a big reason Trump could still win the Electoral College, despite the poor marks Americans give him for his handling of COVID-19 and his job performance overall, is that the Black, Hispanic and college-educated white voters who backed him in 2016 are largely still with him, particularly in key swing states.

In other words, while Trump is a radical departure from previous GOP candidates in terms of personal style and his frequent racist comments, voters haven’t radically changed their voting patterns amid his rise in U.S. politics — the Americans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 (about 90 percent) and those backed who Trump in 2016 are overwhelmingly behind him in 2020 (about 94 percent).

That fact helps explain how Trump won in 2016 and why he might still come back in 2020. Here’s a more detailed look at those three groups:

College-educated white voters

Polls suggest white people with college degrees nationally are likely to be more supportive of Biden than they were Clinton. (Pew data suggests that Clinton won whites with degrees by 17 percentage points, while Biden leads among them by 23 percentage points.)

But Biden’s advantage with white Americans with college degrees varies a lot by state, and that’s key. In Democratic-leaning swing states such as Maine, New Hampshire and Minnesota, only about a third of white voters with college degrees are supporting Trump, according to recent polls. That’s why he may not win any of those three states, even as whites without degrees — one of the more pro-Trump demographic groups — account for the majority of voters in all three.1 This represents a continuation of what we’ve seen over the last four years — polls showed college-educated white voters in Maine and Minnesota, in particular, were significantly more Democratic-leaning than those in the rest of the country in 2016 and 2018.2

The good news for Trump is that white voters with degrees in the South remain more conservative-leaning than those in other regions of the country. Polls suggest a majority of white college graduates in Georgia and Texas prefer Trump over Biden — as do more than 40 percent in Florida and North Carolina. Again, this isn’t too surprising: In 2018, white liberals nationally and in their states were enamored with Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Texas Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke. But white college graduates overall preferred Abrams and O’Rourke’s GOP opponents — by double digits in both races.

White voters with degrees in Georgia and Texas remaining fairly pro-Trump is hugely important. If he were to lose either state, it would severely complicate his path to winning 270 electoral votes. But he’s effectively tied in Georgia and Texas — even as white voters without degrees are a clear minority of the electorate in both states (just 32 percent in Texas and 36 percent in Georgia).

Outside of the South, a clear majority of white college graduates prefer Biden to Trump in most battleground states. In fact, it’s likely that white voters with degrees will vote Democratic at higher rates than in any recent reelection. That said, at least a third of white college graduates are likely to back Trump in basically every swing state.

What’s keeping this bloc with Trump? Many of these voters are simply longtime Republicans who hold conservative views. But particularly in Georgia and Texas, it’s worth thinking about religion and race. Being white and also an evangelical Protestant is strongly correlated with voting Republican — much more so than being white and not having a college degree. According to data provided to us from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling initiative, Georgia ranks seventh among states in terms of the percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants (about a third), with North Carolina 10th and Texas 13th. For comparison, Virginia is the state that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 with the highest percentage of its white registered voters who are evangelical Protestants — it was 17th among the 50 states by this measure.

In its surveys, Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape asks respondents their views on issues like whether they prefer their relatives to marry someone of the same race and whether they agree or disagree with statements like, “Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for Blacks to work their way out of the lower class.” Robert Griffin, research director for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, analyzed responses to these questions to create an overall “score” for voters on their racial attitudes. Georgia’s white registered voters are more likely to express more negative sentiments about people of color than those in all but nine states. (So they are more likely than white registered voters in other states to reject the view that slavery and discrimination are holding back Black people and more likely to be unsupportive of their relatives dating people outside of their race.)

Florida (No. 11), Texas (No. 12) and North Carolina (No. 13) rank similarly on these measures of racial attitudes. Again, for comparison, the blue state where white registered voters hold the highest level of negative attitudes about minorities by this measure is Delaware, which is 17th highest of the 50 states.

So while white voters with college degrees are often portrayed as a monolith, and a Democratic monolith at that … they’re not. And that fact is crucial to Trump’s reelection chances.

Hispanic voters

Polls suggest between a quarter and a third of Hispanics nationally are backing Trump — fairly similar to 2016.3 And like in 2016, a sizable bloc of Hispanics in Arizona, Florida and Texas — three important swing states that have fairly large Hispanic electorates — are likely to back the president.4

Polls for the last two decades have shown about 30 percent of Hispanics identity as Republican. And despite his nasty rhetoric toward Mexico in particular, about as many Hispanics backed Trump as other recent Republican presidential nominees. As we wrote in 2018, there are plenty of explanations for that enduring pro-Trump Hispanic bloc: the anti-abortion views and Catholic and evangelical faiths of some Hispanic Americans ; the priorization of issues like jobs over immigration policy for many Hispanic voters, and the longtime courting of Hispanic voters by the GOP in Florida and Texas in particular.

But, again, the fact that the bottom hasn’t dropped out of Trump’s support among Hispanic voters is hugely significant to his continued competitiveness.

Black voters

Polls suggest about 10 percent of black voters both nationally and in key swing states with large black electorates are supporting Trump. That is similar to 2016 as well and again reflects broader partisan dynamics — surveys over the last three decades have shown about one of every 10 Black Americans identifies as a Republican.

If the race is really tight, Trump’s maintaining this sliver of Black support could be critical. In an analysis of the 2016 election, Griffin, John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira argued that Clinton would have won Michigan and Pennsylvania if Black voters in those states had supported her at the levels they did Barack Obama. (About 95 percent of black voters in those states backed Obama, and about 90 percent supported Clinton.)

I don’t want to belabor that point too much — the Clinton-Trump matchup in those two states was so close that basically any increase in support among any demographic group would have won it for Clinton. And it’s not surprising that black voters supported Obama, the first-ever Black president, at slightly higher levels than they did Clinton. But again, the bottom hasn’t fallen out for Trump among Black voters — he is basically as popular as previous GOP candidates.

Last month’s Republican National Convention featured a lot of non-white speakers for a party whose voters are more than 80 percent white, and I think this analysis explains why. In theory, Trump could win this election by further growing the GOP’s advantage among white voters without degrees, who are likely to represent more than 40 percent of the electorate. That might happen to some extent, particularly among white men. But polls suggest that white women without degrees won’t be as GOP-leaning in 2020 as they were in 2016, either because they like Biden more than Clinton, have grown tired of Trump or some combination of both. So Trump probably needs the white college graduates and Black and Hispanic voters who backed him in 2016, and perhaps a few more, to back him again to win this election. And they might.

Make sure to check out FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast in full; you can also see all the 2020 polls we’ve collected, including national polls, Colorado polls, Florida polls, Michigan polls, Minnesota polls, North Carolina polls and … well … all the states, really.

[sjrresearch]

Bataan and Corregidor 1941-42 - Part 1

Last Stand of the “Battered Ba%$$rds”

(This article is credited to Jason Weiser. Jason is a long-time wargamer with published works in the Journal of the Society of Twentieth Century Wargamers; Miniature Wargames Magazine; and Wargames, Strategy, and Soldier.)

At the start of the Pacific War, the Philippines became a central target for the Japanese, and the islands were turned into a battleground. The events that unfolded at Bataan and Corregidor during the Japanese assault is not only an important piece of World War II history, it provides an incredible framework for potential wargaming scenarios.

Over a series of three posts, we will look at Bataan and Corregidor in-depth, starting with the lead up to the Philippines’ conflict and ending with an understanding of how learning about these locations can help construct wargaming scenarios. It has also been fodder for several fine boardgames on the topic.

Part 1, The Forces Gather

Author’s Note: Though both Philippine and American units fought in Bataan, I will refer to them as “American” collectively. 

 Most Americans aren’t familiar with names like Bataan and Corregidor. Like most historical topics in grade school, it’s quickly taught and forgotten by everyone, save for historical enthusiasts. In the Philippines, it’s akin to Bunker Hill, or Yorktown. To them, these places are where the modern Philippine nation was founded. Like many others, it was a nation bred on the battlefield.

The Philippines was in a unique state since 1898, when the United States had assumed control of the islands in the wake of the Spanish-American War. In 1935, the Philippines was made an American commonwealth, and a gradual process of making the islands ready for independence by 1946 was begun. To help form an independent Philippine armed forces, General Douglas McArthur was brought in by a Philippine government with the lofty rank of Field Marshal to try to modernize the defenses of the Philippines.

McArthur was seemingly a good choice for advising the nascent Philippine Republic, having served in the islands in his first assignment (1903-1906) after graduation from West Point while his father was Governor-General. He then spent time touring Japan (the future enemy of the Philippines) as his father’s aide de camp, and thus, had seen the Japanese soldier up close. Furthermore, Douglas McArthur and the president of the Philippines, Manuel Quezon, also had a personal relationship, as President Quezon had been friends with McArthur’s father during the latter’s time as Governor-General of the Philippines 35 years before. All of this made McArthur a shoo-in for the job of building a Philippine army. 

There were also other incentives to McArthur taking the job. He had just concluded his term as Army Chief of Staff, and his relationship with the new Roosevelt administration was poor, at best (he had been involved in the suppression of the Bonus Marchers in 1932). Though McArthur completed his term in October of 1935, he probably hoped for a change of scenery. One of the assistants McArthur brought with him on this assignment was none other than Dwight D. Eisenhower. 

What they found was an army that existed only on paper. Weapons were cast-offs from U.S. service and were of dubious provenance. The first class of trainees wasn’t due for another two years, and the camps to train them hadn’t been built either. And the budget to accomplish all of this was paltry at best. The Philippine Army lacked basics, like uniforms and even boots, with many divisions having to make do with the despised blue denim uniforms that had just been put out of U.S. service. The Navy and Air Corps weren’t doing much better, with the latter only forming their first squadron in 1939. 

Worse, the level of training of the Army was poor, with one source stating:

“The men in the 31st Infantry [Division] were more fortunate than those in other regiments, many of whom had never even fired a rifle before entering combat. Nor had their previous five and a half months training under Philippine Army supervision been of much value…Practically none of the men…had fired as many as five rounds with the rifle or the .30 -caliber machine gun. None had fired the .50 caliber machine gun or the mortar.” (pp 29. The Fall of the Philippines, Morton, Lewis, US Army Center for Military History, Washington DC, 1953)

Contrast this with his Japanese opponent, who was most likely a veteran of the ten-year war in China, and was, supply deficiencies aside, well-trained and more than willing to come to grips with his opponent. The Philippine soldier was not ready for war, but war would be thrust upon him anyhow.  This wasn’t true of all Filipino soldiers, as the Philippine Scouts, who numbered 12,000, were considered some of the best troops in the pre-war U.S. Army and were relatively well-equipped. However, they were under direct American command, and not under the command of the Philippine Army.  

The U.S. troops in the islands themselves numbered 31,095 on the eve of war, and they had their own deficiencies. Funds were short for many years, and until September 1941, no reinforcements had arrived from the United States. 

In September, the 200th Coast Artillery Regiment (Anti-Aircraft) arrived, bringing much needed additional anti-aircraft guns. In October, two tank battalions, the 192nd and the 194th, arrived in the islands, with 108 M3 Light Tanks between them, both units were soon formed into a Provisional Tank Group. 

In addition, more P-40s and B-17s arrived to reinforce the U.S. Army Air Corps (USAAC) squadrons deployed throughout the islands. These were some of the most modern aircraft in the USAAC at the time, so this was meant as a deterrent to Japan and a signal that the United States was making a major investment in defense of the islands. At the outbreak of war, there were 277 USAAC aircraft of all types in the Philippines, most either at Clark or Nichols Fields on the main island of Luzon. There was also the construction of additional airfields, and many of them were built just in time. However, early warning capabilities against Japanese air attacks were woefully inadequate, and this would come back to haunt the Americans. For example, of the seven radar sets present in the islands, only two had been set up and were working. 

Meanwhile, the naval presence in the islands was reliant on the U.S. and consisted of the Asiatic Fleet under Admiral Thomas Hart. His force was more to protect American commercial interests in China and “show the flag” rather than be any real impediment to Japanese aggression. The heaviest he had available was the heavy cruiser Houston, and most of the ships he had were of World War I vintage. His air arm consisted of some PBY patrol aircraft, which were useful, and he had at his disposal the 4th Marine Regiment in Shanghai at the beginning of 1941, but the regiment evacuated to the Philippines in late-November. Hart’s hope was that he could rely on support either from the British, or the Dutch, who had larger fleets in Southeast Asia, or the Pacific Fleet in Hawaii. All of these hopes were, of course, to be cruelly dashed when war came. The only ships Hart had in abundance were submarines, having 29 available as of November 1941. However, American torpedo design did little to help these submarines, as the standard Mark 14 torpedo had a high dud rate, and often, American subs were frustrated in the early part of the war in sinking targets they would have otherwise destroyed had they had better torpedoes.

In March 1941, McArthur was recalled to the U.S. Army and was placed in command of all American forces in the Philippines. Despite assurances and little to work with, McArthur had put together a force of 100,000 men to defend the Philippines. But the force still had many deficiencies, and not all of them, despite efforts on both sides of the Pacific to address them, were rectified in time. Many of these deficiencies would haunt the defenders of Bataan in the months to come.

Japanese Forces and Plans

The Japanese invasion plan for the Philippines was part of an even larger strategy that had been arrived at by the Imperial General Headquarters. It had been derived from separate Army and Navy plans, which had differed little in content. The strategic goal was simple: Seize Malaya for its rubber, the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) for its oil, and expand a defensive perimeter as far out as possible to ensure that any attempt to push the Japanese back was a bloody one, and the Americans and British would prefer a negotiated peace to a long, intractable war. Many of the planned assaults were scheduled to occur within hours of the attack on Pearl Harbor. 

The Philippines was an objective for two reasons. First, it was a linchpin in the sea lines of communication (SLOC) with the proposed advance into the Dutch East Indies and Malaya. The islands needed to fall to ensure the Japanese had a secure rear area. Secondly, Manila harbor was, and still is, one of the finest deep-water ports in Southeast Asia. The Japanese needed access to that as well to sustain their advance to the south. 

The plan as it stood was for simultaneous air attacks on all American installations within hours of the attack on Pearl Harbor. While this was going on, the Japanese 14th Army was to land along the north coast of Luzon and at Davao on the island of Mindanao. Both islands were the most populated in the Philippine chain. The initial objective was to seize airfields to allow the Japanese Army Air Force to provide direct air support to the forces ashore. Once the main part of the USAAC strength was wiped out, the bulk of the 14th Army was to land in Lingayen Gulf just north of Manila and Limon Bay, southeast of Manila. The two prongs of advance were then to advance quickly to Manila, trap the Americans between them, and destroy the enemy in a decisive battle somewhere near Manila. The 14th Army, under the command of General Masaharu Homma, had been given 50 days to complete this task, whereupon half of his command and most of his air support would leave to support operations to the south. As we shall see, the Japanese came nowhere close to meeting this ambitious timetable.

The Japanese planning and information gathering had been meticulous, and they had a very good idea what they would be facing in the Philippines. The Japanese were of the opinion that Americans were good soldiers, but not up to the task of prolonged combat in the tropical jungles that made up a good portion of Luzon. Additionally, Japan did not think much of the Philippine soldier at all. 

The main flaw in the Japanese invasion planning was they expected the American force would make its last stand around Manila, and then die in place. The Japanese had no plan for any contingency where the Americans withdrew into Bataan and fortified the peninsula. 

As the Japanese expected a relatively easy campaign, they only allotted two divisions, the 16th and 48th Infantry Divisions. It was this over-confidence and optimistic planning that would cost them dearly in the campaign to come. 

To be continued in Part 2 – The Curtain Rises – War Comes to the Philippines 

At SJR Research, we specialize in creating compelling narratives and provide research to give your game the kind of details that engage your players and create a resonant world they want to spend time in. If you are interested in learning more about our gaming research services, you can browse SJR Research’s service on our site at SJR Research.

[donupfield74955-blog]

Hop Is The Greatest Music Genre

The previous few years have been something of a golden age for music documentaries, with the Oscar-profitable success of Trying to find Sugar Man and 20 Ft From Stardom opening up the field for films about less obvious stars. The top-down technique begins by laying out the tremendous-genres, usually in a chronologic order. This creates a two-dimensional area where the horizontal axis determines the tremendous-genre and the vertical axis determines the time. The result is a rigid structure with adjoining super-genres through which each genre is placed on some extent (or collection of factors) that automatically dictates the corresponding tremendous-genre and year of origin. Frith, Simon (1996) Performing Rites: On the Value of Popular Music. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard College Press. As soon as known as Nation & Western music, this music kind is developed mostly in the southern United States of America, with roots in conventional folks music, spirituals and blues. Possibly the clearest lower set of definitions of music genres is present in award conditions, http://www.audio-transcoder.com resembling in the Grammy Awards. In this context, the genres are primarily based on a wide range of criteria — for instance, Different" is based on what the music shouldn't be; Youngsters's" relies on the viewers; Musical Show" is predicated on type; and many others. — which are applied persistently and over time in order that a practice of definition is constructed up.

Reggae music has its roots in a Jamaican music style called Ska, primarily based on R&B, Jazz and Caribbean musical traditions. Ska originated in the 1960s, and later spawned the world-well-known genre of Reggae. After I think of metalcore I think of: as I lay dying, august burns crimson, parkway drive, trivium, unearth. great bands who made superior music. The battleground upon which many a skirmish in the alt-tradition wars would be fought. Witch Home had the excellence of being one of many few hipster genres that, like high elves denying the rise of Sauron, even many die-hard hipsters refused to acknowledge as being actual. Seems it did not matter either means, because by the time Salem managed to release an album, all their imitators had either signed to Tri Angle or moved on to rave music.

Electronic dance music is a popular music supposed for dance in golf equipment. The music has repetitive beat and synthesized backtrack. For the reason that starting of music, many people have been listening to numerous forms of them. The varieties are on account of traditions, hustle, musical instruments, pitch loudness and different parameters. Completely different music varieties have their intervals via which they flourish and develop into most outstanding. Initially, style affected just one or few societies or nations, however in the present day music and style are frequent internationally. Listed below are the several types of EDM.

Hip-Hop style is nearly uniquely recognized as a single topic (subject 2). The remainder of the music genres seem to be identified as another matter. On the International Music Summit Ibiza, we introduced our first wave of Artist Ambassadors who might be giving their time and influence freed from charge to support The Affiliation For Electronic Music and its campaigns. Songs like these integrated components of each disco and synthpop and paved the way for synthpop to stand on its own as a dance music subgenre. This track is extra of a precursor to future bass than the precise thing, but I'm including it as a result of it's an necessary touchstone in the music's early growth. Bristol, England, producer Liam McLean referred to as his gritty mutation of dubstep "purple sound" (a term he's since distanced himself from), and its mixture of buzzy synths and slowed-down, hip-hop-influenced beats was a direct affect on numerous future bass producers, particularly youthful artists equivalent to Denver's Gunskt and London's Digital Mozart, who sometimes convey slightly more swagger and menace to their sound. The quality of Uncover Weekly's picks is so consistently good, it's kind of uncanny. After I obtained a number of excellent playlists in a row, I couldn't cease desirous about how Spotify had figured me out, together with 75 million other people. Answering that query led me down the rabbit hole of how the system��works in the first place—and how an algorithm can delve into the deeply subjective realm of music to predict the songs that can make my pulse race and my head nod. Music comes from everywhere, and so do the names we name it by. There is a longstanding cliche that solely the music enterprise wants genre names - everybody else either likes it or they do not. That is, after all, bunk, as anybody who's heard sufficient folks trot out lines equivalent to "I like all music aside from rap and country" is aware. Not least because quite a lot of these genre names come from the artists themselves. The Beatles didn't stop touring till the summer time of 1966, but a yr earlier, on Rubber Soul, you'll be able to hear them deciding to make the recording studio their home. The harmonies had been trickier, the recording techniques extra thought of, and the instrumentation more diversified as the band expanded upon the standard rock band format they'd established. Maybe the sitar stood out essentially the most on the time, however dig all these pianos, usually electronically tweaked, most notably to impersonate a harpsichord on "In My Life." The lyrics were both more acerbic and allusive, questioning yesterday's romantic optimism. You may say this represents "maturity," name it "art" or credit score it for transferring rock away from singles to album-size statements — however regardless Rubber Soul accelerated popular music's creative arms race, driving opponents like the Stones, the Seashore Boys and Dylan to dismantle expectations and create new ones. Our sense of the place one genre" ends and another begins, Wald argues, is time-contingent: a product of our cultural moment. Maybe you don't suppose the Beatles are in charge for fashionable music turning into organized along the traces of arbitrary, https://www.goodreads.com/ often racist terminology (what number of completely different phyla of African-American music have been loosely bracketed into the soul" class?) devised by label A&Rs, promoters, report retailer clerks, and so on. But surely most would agree that genre tags are sometimes poisonous , or on the very least, misleading.There was a wonderous flicker of hope that started in the early 2000s. We noticed bands like Linkin Park , Nickel Back & Evenescence give technique to other acts comparable to My Chemical Romance, Him, Taking back Sunday, Hinder and plenty of others. Although not typical, it was glorious to my ears to right here any of those acts vs. most important stream "blah-blah" music. The quiet but forceful nature of Assured Individualists is clearly reflected of their selection of music: these personalities scored highest for classical (76%), rock (79%, tied with Fixed Improvement), and metallic (42%) genres. One can easily think about them finding one thing interesting in both harmonious and technically demanding classical passages, and intense rock or metal tracks. Some may even mix the two, embracing symphonic steel, for instance.

[antoine-roquentin]

You and your colleagues trace the “populist” upsurges of 2016 in both major parties to the runaway growth of a “dual economy” in America and the failure of our money-driven political system to do anything about this but talk. Yet among liberal commentators in the mainstream media it’s now all but axiomatic that economics cannot explain the election. They pin its outcome on racial resentment and gender prejudices. What’s your take on this line of argument?

The short answer is that these folks are running a perfectly good point into the ground. From the day he announced — indeed, even before then, when he kept questioning where Obama was really born — Trump and his campaign hammered away on racial and gender-related themes. I doubt there was any dog whistle he and the campaign didn’t try out.

But Trump was also making noises that no other major Republican challenger had in many years. Parts of his critique of international finance, globalization, outsourcing, and free trade overlapped with Sanders’s. Also like Sanders, instead of burying his listeners in a blizzard of four-point plans and policy-speak like Clinton did, he forthrightly talked about the need to restore prosperity, bring jobs back to the US, and to “drain the swamp.” He criticized Goldman Sachs, raised the prospect of repealing the carried-interest tax deduction beloved of Wall Street, and mocked Bush’s decision to invade Iraq. He also questioned the value of NATO to the US and the continuing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, while pushing to reduce tensions with Russia.

This is not to say he was a carbon copy of Sanders; he wasn’t, as anyone who read between the lines of his comments about blue collar workers vs. unions or paid attention to what he has done since taking office on taxes, labor policy, and immigration.

But the economic appeals were clear and powerful.

In the days after the election, I was astounded how fast the Clinton campaign’s notion that it was all due to the “deplorables” crystallized into “common sense” in so many quarters. Or the parallel wave of assertions that the electorate’s rejection of her was a convulsive reaction to the election of the first black president in American history. That one seemed to me quite implausible: why should the reaction be so much stronger in 2016 than in 2012, when Obama was running for reelection?

Trump’s boasting about his sexual conquests and tirades about women’s rights and roles and his volte face on abortion to please the Right were all obvious, but even newspaper polls suggested that the story had to be more complicated in regard to white women and possibly even Hispanics.

What about the post-election academic studies that everyone keeps citing in support of the conclusion, though?              

If you look closely, you will see a kind of schizophrenia pervades these. Studies by Shannon Monnat and other scholars that analyze aggregate county-level voting returns suggest that Trump’s appeals resonated especially strongly in poorer areas left out of the painfully slow recovery of the Obama years. The force of the dual economy explanation is plain in these.

But the big studies of individual voters do not show this pattern. One problem with them is that the economic variables that you would really like to have — for example, vulnerability to imports, but above all longer-run trends in economic growth — are just not to be found in the data these studies collect. They can only be added at enormous time and expense and sometimes not at all. Statistical software for relating complex surveys of individuals to local growth patterns over time is also imperfectly developed.

But you can’t beat something with nothing. If you don’t like those studies, what’s your answer?                     

Exactly. So my old colleague Ben Page and I set out to analyze the American National Election Survey data afresh. We compiled a lot of data about congressional districts and related this to the survey data. My colleague Jie Chan and several of Ben’s students eventually joined us. Our first, somewhat preliminary, paper is now out as a working paper.

We agree completely with the studies that find racial resentment and gender considerations played substantial roles in the election outcome. We also concur that the political discussion and reception of the Affordable Care Act was heavily racialized — that really stands out when you study the survey data.

But we also find compelling evidence of the importance of economic issues. In the Republican primaries, for example, Trump’s support for import restrictions clearly distinguished him from the rest of the Republican field and helped gain him votes. The importance of feelings about the US being on the “wrong track” is also apparent. That likely reflects some economic considerations, though economics alone hardly exhausts its content.

When we analyze voting by congressional districts, especially changes in the presidential vote from 2012 to 2016, the importance of economic issues also stands out. Some of these factors are not obvious, unless you are familiar with recent studies of Brexit and German voting in the early 1930s, such as the importance of fiscal austerity in pushing voters to the right.

We find that economic considerations played a major role in the decisions of “switchers” — people who voted for Obama in 2012 but then voted for Trump; 2012 non-voters who came in from the cold to vote for the real-estate mogul; and last, 2012 Obama voters who didn’t vote in 2016. Limits on imports and, in the case of non-voters in 2012 who ended up casting ballots for Trump, beliefs that the government should take a more active role in sustaining peoples’ income both played a role.

We also find very direct evidence that the Clinton campaign’s relatively weak emphasis on policy as opposed to candidate qualifications cost it the votes of 2012 Obama voters. Many just did not perceive a meaningful difference between the major parties. Disappointment with the meager aid the Affordable Care Act actually provided individuals also appears to have influenced many of these dropouts.

We also discovered something else that has really interesting implications. In the earlier paper on money and the election that Paul Jorgensen, Jie Chen, and I wrote, we pointed out that in the final weeks of the campaign a wave of Republican spending on endangered Senate races dramatically turned many around, preserving Republican control of the Senate. The striking result was that for the first time in American history the party that won the Senate races also won the state’s presidential vote — with no exceptions.

Conventional election analysts barely noticed. If they did, they made nothing of it. But this led us to suggest that strong correlated efforts (often led by statewide parties) helped pull Trump across the finish line in some states where he was close.

Wait a minute: you mean that the efforts by the Kochs and other interests cool to Trump who poured resources into Senate races to hedge against loss of the White House may have provided Trump with the razer’s edge?   

Yes, precisely: reverse coattails. And the survey evidence confirms this. Among both those who switched from Obama to Trump and those who finally decided not to vote, it appears Senate races had major effects. The probability of either voting for Trump or not voting for Clinton rose substantially in those states but not elsewhere.

We take this as evidence for the commanding role political money played in the election outcomes. In effect a dual wave of money (Trump also spent fairly lavishly toward the end, as we showed), floated the Republicans to victory in both spheres.

Where does that leave all the claims that Russian interference handed the election to Trump?           

Unless you are prepared to argue that Vladimir Putin was in league with the Kochs and company to secure Mitch McConnell’s perch as leader of the Senate, and that they concentrated on states with Senate races, you need to think afresh about those claims.

We were clear that we had no pretensions to inside knowledge about things like Trump’s relations with the Deutsche Bank or what Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, or anyone else in his entourage may have said or not said to WikiLeaks, the Russians, or anyone else. For that, everyone will have to wait for the special prosecutor. We also said directly that we doubted that Facebook and other internet concerns had been forthcoming about all that they did and knew at the time and later. The various investigations have certainly confirmed that.

But nothing that has come out fundamentally changes the evidence that the mighty Wurlitzers of the Trump campaign and the domestic right-wing messaging infrastructure centered on Breitbart dwarfed Russian efforts. Russian efforts were not targeted with anything like the precision they should have been to be very effective, no matter how many people claim the opposite.

Russian or Russian-linked entities spent very little in key battleground states and, as we pointed out in our earlier paper, researchers who claimed the opposite relied on a poor statistical test. When you reanalyzed their data with a more appropriate test, their case evaporated. The Russians, for example, did foolish things like focusing tweets on states like West Virginia, which was a lock for Trump.

There’s more. Scholars have presented evidence that the Republican share of the vote in 2016 rose proportionately at least as high among people who used the internet the least. Past warning about empirical evidence on what would be required for high rates of belief change also remains relevant. I think a new Harvard study probably has it exactly right when they observe that the Russian efforts pale “in comparison to the directed efforts of the Trump campaign working with Facebook’s political marketing team.” No foreign operation can sow chaos like Steven Bannon and company. 2016’s madness was most likely made in America.

[patriotsnet]

How Many Registered Republicans And Democrats In The United States

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-registered-republicans-and-democrats-in-the-united-states/

How Many Registered Republicans And Democrats In The United States

Understanding The Reasons Behind The Numbers

What If Republican and Democrat States Were Separate Countries?

The researchers factored in additional considerations when interpreting the data. Among these was the natural progression of infections from urban areas, such as New York City and Seattle, to rural areas.

Urban areas more often have Democrat governors, while rural regions favor Republicans. Even so, this did not fully explain the data.

The Johns Hopkins researchers cite previous studies that depict how Democrat governors employed stricter safety measures than their Republican counterparts. These measures include mask-wearing, physical distancing, and stay-at-home orders.

Blue state governors enacted such steps more quickly than red state governors.

Republican governors also withdrew safety measures as early in the pandemic as spring 2020, which the study says may have contributed to increased cases and deaths.

Also, the study suggests that actions Republican governors took might function as an upstream progenitor of multifaceted policies that, in unison, impact the spread of the virus.

The federal government has little direct control of behaviors that influence the spread of infections, such as SARS-CoV-2. Despite a more coordinated federal response this year, says Dr. Benjamin-Neelon, governors still play a key role in the pandemic response.

As were seeing, she adds of recent events, several states have lifted mask requirements even though we have yet to make substantial progress in controlling the spread of the virus.

The Issue Of Slavery: Enter Abraham Lincoln

In the mid-nineteenth century, slavery was a widely discussed political issue. The Democratic Partys internal views on this matter differed greatly. Southern Democrats wished for slavery to be expanded and reach into Western parts of the country. Northern Democrats, on the other hand, argued that this issue should be settled on a local level and through popular referendum. Such Democratic infighting eventually led to Abraham Lincoln, who belonged to the Republican Party, winning the presidential election of 1860. This new Republican Party had recently been formed by a group of Whigs, Democrats and other politicians who had broken free from their respective parties in order to form a party based on an anti-slavery platform.

Voter Turnout In 2020 And Beyond

The new census data makes plain that the 2020 election was record-breaking in terms of the magnitude of its voter turnout. Yet there are two aspects of this turnout which need to be emphasized. One is the sharp rise in the turnout among white non-college votersa group that has strongly favored Republicans. The other is the accentuated turnout among young people and people of colorrepresenting the increasing influence of voters who heavily lean toward Democratic presidential candidates.

Both of these groups exerted countervailing forces on the results of the 2020 election, leading to close popular vote totals in a handful of states. However, the underlying demographics of the nations voter population show that Democratic-leaning voter populations are on the rise in both fast-growing and slow-growing parts of the country.

This raises the question as to whether even greater turnout among white non-college voter groupsor Republican efforts to alter voting requirements in their favorwill be enough to counter the influence of young voters and voters of color in future presidential elections.

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Cook Partisan Voting Index

Another metric measuring party preference is the Cook Partisan Voting Index . Cook PVIs are calculated by comparing a state’s average Democratic Party or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation’s average share of the same. PVIs for the states over time can be used to show the trends of U.S. states towards, or away from, one party or the other.

The Swing State Voting Patterns That Decided The Election

Given the importance of the state outcomes in the Electoral College, it is useful to study turnout patterns in swing or near-swing states from the 2020 presidential election .

Three such states in the rapidly growth South and West regions are Georgia, Arizona, and Texas. The former two gave Biden a razor-thin win over Donald Trump; the latter, which Trump won, showed a smaller Republican margin than in recent elections.

In all three states, turnout was highest for white college graduates, and lowest for nonwhite voters. Yet in each case, 2016-to-2020 turnout increases were greater for non-college white voters than for white college graduates. Each state also exhibited sizeable gains in their nonwhite turnout rates, which countered the Republican-leaning impact of the non-college white turnout increase. This was especially the case for the large Latino or Hispanic populations in Arizona and Texas, and modestly for the Black population in Georgia.

It is the case that the white non-college bloc voted somewhat less Republican in each of these states in 2020 than in 2016. However, it appears that the rise in white non-college turnout helped to make the races in Georgia and Arizona close, and in Texas, kept the Republican margins from shrinking further.

Read Also: How Did Republicans Gain Control Of Southern Governments

Also Check: Did Trump Say He Would Run As A Republican Because They Are Dumb

Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022

But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation a near-impossible task.

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What Is The Difference Between Republicans And Democrats

Republicans and Democrats are the two main and historically the largest political parties in the US and, after every election, hold the majority seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate as well as the highest number of Governors. Though both the parties mean well for the US citizens, they have distinct differences that manifest in their comments, decisions, and history. These differences are mainly ideological, political, social, and economic paths to making the US successful and the world a better place for all. Differences between the two parties that are covered in this article rely on the majority position though individual politicians may have varied preferences.

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Acting President Of The United States

An acting president of the United States is an individual who legitimately exercises the powers and duties of the president of the United States even though that person does not hold the office in their own right. There is an established presidential line of succession in which officials of the United States federal government may be called upon to take on presidential responsibilities if the incumbent president becomes incapacitated, dies, resigns, is removed from office during their four-year term of office; or if a president-elect has not been chosen before Inauguration Day or has failed to qualify by that date.

If the president dies, resigns, or is removed from office, the vice president automatically becomes president. Likewise, were a president-elect to die during the transition period, or decline to serve, the vice president-elect would become president on Inauguration Day. A vice president can also become the acting president if the president becomes incapacitated. However, should the presidency and vice presidency both become vacant, the statutory successor called upon would not become president, but would only be acting as president. To date, two vice presidentsGeorge H. W. Bush and Dick Cheney have served as acting president. No one lower in the presidential line of succession has so acted.

Map 2 And Table : Party Registration And The 2016 Presidential Vote

In Battleground States, Newly Registered Democrats Are Outnumbering Newly Registered Republicans

Of the 31 party registration states, 24 were carried in the 2016 presidential election by the party with the most registered voters in it. Donald Trump swept 11 of the 12 states with a Republican registration advantage, while Hillary Clinton won 13 of the 19 states which had more registered Democrats than Republicans. Four of the Democratic registration states that Trump took were in the South, led by Florida and North Carolina. He also overcame Democratic registration advantages in West Virginia and Pennsylvania to win both. The only state with more registered Republicans than Democrats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 was New Hampshire, where the outcome was very close.

Notes: An asterisk indicates states where there were more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans in October 2016. Independents include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into any particular category.

Richard Wingers Ballot Access News for October 2016 party registration data; America Votes 32 for 2016 presidential election results.

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Presidential Ballot Access 2020

There were 21 candidates on the ballot each in Vermont and Colorado, more than in any other state. Arkansas and Louisiana came in second, with 13 candidates each. Twelve states featured only three candidates on the ballot.

The following map shows the number of presidential candidates on the ballot in 2020 in each state.

For information from previously presidential election years, click “” below.

Public opinion on the two-party system In 2017, Gary Johnson, a former Libertarian Party candidate for president, claimed that “the largest group of American voters are actually neither Democrats or Republicans” and “the overwhelming majority would like to have more choices than just the two ‘major’ parties.”Was Johnson correct about party affiliation and public opinion on the two-party system? Read Ballotpedia’s fact check »

Why The Number Of House Members Hasnt Changed Since 1913

There are still 435 members of the House of Representatives a century later because of the;Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929, which set that number in stone.

The Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929 was the result of a battle between rural and urban areas of the United States following the 1920 Census. The formula for distributing seats in the House based on population favored urbanized states and penalized smaller rural states at the time, and Congress could not agree on a reapportionment plan.

After the 1910 census, when the House grew from 391 members to 433 , the growth stopped. Thats because the 1920 census indicated that the majority of Americans were concentrating in cities, and nativists, worried about of the power of foreigners, blocked efforts to give them more representatives, wrote Dalton Conley, a professor of sociology, medicine and public policy at New York University, and Jacqueline Stevens, a professor of political science at Northwestern University.

So, instead, Congress passed the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929 and sealed the number of House members at the level established after the 1910 census, 435.

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Abortion Trends By Party Identification

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The following graphs display Gallup’s full trends on U.S. views about abortion by party identification.

The first set of graphs provide views since 1975 about the legality of abortion.

The second set of graphs display self-identification since 1995 as “pro-choice” vs. “pro-life” on the abortion issue.

Emergence Of New Conservatism

The relief programs included in FDRs New Deal earned overwhelming popular approval, launching an era of Democratic dominance that would last for most of the next 60 years. Between 1932 and 1980, Republicans won only four presidential elections and had a Congressional majority for only four years.

Though the centrist Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was president from 1953 to 1961, actively supported equal rights for women and African Americans, a conservative resurgence led to Barry Goldwaters nomination as president in 1964, continued with Richard Nixons ill-fated presidency and reached its culmination with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980.

The South saw a major political sea change starting after World War II, as many white Southerners began migrating to the GOP due to their opposition to big government, expanded labor unions and Democratic support for civil rights, as well as conservative Christians opposition to abortion and other culture war issues.

Meanwhile, many black voters, who had remained loyal to the Republican Party since the Civil War, began voting Democratic after the Depression and the New Deal.

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Richard Nixon: Resigned In 1974

People read about President Nixonâs resignation outside the gate of the White House in August, 1974.

Despite being complicit in one of the greatest political scandals in U.S. presidential history, Richard Nixon was never impeached. He resigned before the House of Representatives had a chance to impeach him. If he hadnt quit, Nixon would likely have been the first president ever impeached and removed from office, given the crimes he committed to cover up his involvement in the Watergate break-ins.

On July 27, 1974, after seven months of deliberations, the House Judiciary Committee approved the first of five proposed articles of impeachment against Nixon, charging the president with obstruction of justice in an effort to shield himself from the ongoing Watergate investigation. Only a handful of Republicans in the judiciary committee voted to approve the articles of impeachment, and it was unclear at the time if there would be enough votes in the full House to formally impeach the president.

But everything changed on August 5, 1974, when the Supreme Court ordered Nixon to release unedited tapes of his Oval Office conversations with White House staffers during the Watergate investigation. The so-called smoking gun tapes included Nixon proposing the use of the CIA to obstruct the FBI investigation, and paying hush money to the convicted Watergate burglars. The transcript included the following:

NIXON: How much money do you need?

NIXON: We could get that.

Republicans Cut Taxes For Rich People And Corporations In 2017 Biden Wants To Reverse Course

The full details of what Bidens tax proposal will look like are still a little fuzzy. According to , which recently reported on the presidents planned tax hikes, much of what he is likely to put forth is in line with what he campaigned on.

On the campaign trail, Biden proposed increasing the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent as well as increasing the income tax rate on families making more than $400,000. He proposed changing capital gains taxes meaning how taxes are applied when someone sells an asset, like a stock for people making more than $1 million, so that they would be taxed the same as income.

Also on capital gains, Biden proposed overhauling how they are taxed on a stepped-up basis after people die. Its a little wonky, but say youre Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and a lot of your money is tied up in Facebook stock your wealth goes up over the years, but as long as you dont sell the stock, you dont pay taxes on it. After you die, say $1 billion of the stock gains go to your kids, and they might turn around and sell it later for $1.1 billion. But they would only be taxed for $0.1 billion the difference between the cost when they got it and when they sold it not the full $1.1 billion. Bidens plan would change that.

Ahead of the 2020 election, the Tax Policy Center Bidens plan would raise $2.1 trillion over a decade. As notes, his White House proposal could be smaller.

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Lots Of Consistency Elsewhere

In the rest of the country, there was much more consistency between party registration totals and the 2016 election outcome, with only three non-Southern states voting against the grain. On election eve in Pennsylvania, there were 915,081 more registered Democrats than Republicans; Trump carried the state by 44,292 votes. In West Virginia, there were 175,867 more registered Democrats; Trump won by 300,577 votes. And in New Hampshire, there were 24,232 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the fall of 2016, but Hillary Clinton took the state by 2,736 votes. Thats it. The other 22 party registration states outside the South were carried in the presidential balloting by the party with more registered voters than the other.

And in many of these in sync states, the registration advantage in recent years has grown more Republican or Democratic as the case may be, augmented by a healthy increase in independents.

The registration trend line in California is a microcosm of sorts of party registration in the nation as whole. Democrats are running ahead and the ranks of the independents are growing. Yet registered voters in both parties appear to be widely engaged. That was the case in 2016, and likely will be again in 2018, with Trump flogging issues to rouse his base. In short, this is a highly partisan era when party registration totals, and the trends that go with them, are well worth watching.

Democrats Make Their Move

US: Top Democrats accuse Republicans for ‘poisoning’ the democracy | Joe Biden Vs Donald Trump

The Democratic effort at a national voting law centres around passage of the “For the People Act”. It represents one of the most expansive federal reforms of the US election system in a generation.

The bill would guarantee that voters can receive a mail-in ballot if requested, mandate a minimum of 15 days of early voting before every federal election, require paper ballots and set standards for voting machines.

It would prohibit states from disenfranchising felons who have completed their sentences and enact new restrictions on undisclosed so-called “dark money” political contributions.

Many new voters would be automatically registered under the legislation, which also requires technology companies to disclose information about political advertising, create new government support for small donor-funded candidates and seek to end the practice of “gerrymandering” voting maps for partisan advantage.

In March the US House of Representatives approved the bill by a nearly party line vote, with one Democrat – Bennie Thompson of Mississippi – opposing because of concerns that the redistricting provision would disadvantage black voters.

Three months later, Republicans in the US Senate blocked passage of the For the People Act by use of the filibuster, a parliamentary procedure that requires 60 votes to pass major legislation. The bill only received 50 votes – all from Democrats in the evenly divided 100-seat chamber.

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[coin-river-blog]

Todd Gordon, a long-time stock analyst and the founder of TradingAnalysis.com, is “nervous” about the current state of the S&P 500. The index crashed just before Christmas to below 2350, but has affected a steady recovery in the meantime. By press time it had gained 2% on its numbers 3 months ago.

The index crashed just before Christmas to below 2350, but has affected a steady recovery in the meantime. By press time it had gained 2% on its numbers 3 months ago. A

Gordon tells CNBC in a recent interview:

The 200-day moving average right here — we have tried it once, twice, three, coming back on a fourth time. This is going to be a deadly battleground. I want to short it but I want to be very diligent and get a good price, stop out above 2,900, but again, don’t think is going to be an easy trade. I think we sell off but it’s going to be very volatile for a period while we decide what to do here.

Can We Expect 3,100 in 2019?

His lack of confidence in a short might put some wind in the sails of the longs out there. However, let’s look at a longer track-record for SPX.

If the same trend is repeated from last summer, 3,100 would seem to be the target.

As we can see above, the index has only reached a high of around 2920 over the past year. The current level is also a 2% gain on where it was a year ago. If SPX is in another bull run like it was last summer, new highs could be seen. The gain over the average in the last run was 200 points. Could we thus expect a run to 3,100 before bulls might be considered overconfident?

The value of the SPX is based on the performance of the 505 symbols it represents. While Silicon Valley has been doing well, a lot of other blue chip companies that make the list are posting profits in the single percentage range. The jury is still out on the trade war with China, which will affect companies across the board.

China Policy Will Play Major Role

Therefore, Gordon is right to be “very nervous.” The S&P 500 does poorly when major companies falter, and in terms of profits, 2018 wasn’t impressive for non-technology companies. However, companies like Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet posted respectable revenues which offset the consequential market capitalization punishment suffered by underperformers.

Yet two of the above-mentioned companies rely very much on revenue based on trade with China, revenue which can be negatively disrupted in 2019 by foreign policy decisions.

Another analyst named Erin Gibbs isn’t expecting a slingshot motion on the S&P 500. A portfolio manager for S&P Global, Gibbs projects a little under 5% gains over the course of the year. Barring some surprise movements in the wider economy, this prediction is probably safer to trust. Near-term shorts to the 2650 range might not be out of the question for many traders.

Of course, this column isn’t intended as financial advice. Make your own decisions wisely. If you’re playing the indexes, let’s hope you’re paying attention to macro economic policy, as that will play heavily into the valuation of the companies within.

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[wilfredymp07505-blog]

Knowing To Rely On Your Music Self.

I am actually becoming certain that the means to end up being all things to all folks is to earn our religions less culturally particular, not extra. Apple really understood what they were actually carrying out when they added this function, yet regrettably for those who have actually downloaded and install half or even additional from their popular music collection, they're subjected to overlooking album art pieces in addition to overlooking cd names. And also if they typically aren't studying music in an institution, but are actually around attempting to make it in the songs service - participating in guitar in a stone band, doing beautytopblog.info a lobby action, focusing on setups for some local broadcast commercials - after that the study of theory can appear more far-off to their issues. Looking back, this will have been terrific to have actually possessed entire lessons from just bits and riffs, woes and dance woogie and all that enjoyable stuff that was stoking my creativity as well as nourishing the inspired side of my human brain that connected directly with the instrument, without any sheet music in order to get in the means. Find the shortage of success one of Spotify's rivals such as Tidal and Apple Popular music - buyers only prefer the music knowledge to become smooth, as soon as Spotify accomplished that, there was actually no should look elsewhere other than among specific niche power customers. In our parish, unfortunatly, praise popular music has actually become the battleground with the congregation lining up on each sides from the church aisle, and few straying no-man's property where they can reverse and value either type of praise. Yet, mentioning this today, and also stating it after that, was actually other, as well as quite hard, otherwise inconceivable to I am actually blogging about this component of our lifestyles and also music as its own history, is that I strongly believe equally as muchmore-so-now than ever before, as I performed then that popular music, in each its own forms, will definitely find our team via our tacky life.

You'll find easy-to-make red, white, and blue kabobs (produced with any type of mix from strawberries, melon, blueberries, fruits, marshmallows, angel meals pie chunks, or Rice Krispies ® Addresses stars), yummy dishes, decorated cookies, homemade ice cream, and also a lot of other great ideas. When one looks at that he showed literature as well as military air travel, was actually an author and also author from distinction, a equally able and enlightening doubter from literature, popular music and the visual crafts - all of which he wrote very initial discourses on - our team are compelled to position him one of the modern-day renaissance men. Once you are actually around on the ice neighbored through a system of crevasses, blue ice as well as ice caves, you'll be actually swamped by sheer feeling of your personal tininess despite such a huge and also strong iceberg. Things like Sixth's and also 9th's, augmented chords, coupled along with time modifications, key changes, stop time as well as a lot of various other musical procedures that were actually additional popular in the field of jazz music compared to in R & B. It was music that went outside package (word play here intended).

[fullspectrum-cbd-oil]

Biden’s Bid to Attract Rust Belt Workers Faces Troubles in His Own Backyard

Democrat Joe Biden kicked off his 2020 presidential campaign in April at a Teamsters union hall in Pittsburgh, the one-time U.S. steel capital, a well-choreographed show intended to prove that blue-collar voters were central to his effort to win the White House.

“I make no apologies. I am a union man,” he declared.

But in Philadelphia, where Biden on Tuesday will be among a half dozen Democratic presidential candidates appearing at what labor union federation the AFL-CIO has billed as a “Workers’ Presidential Summit,” there are signs of cracks in Biden’s union support.

Philadelphia for Biden is not just any city. It is home to his campaign headquarters, the biggest city in his home state of Pennsylvania, and an area that has long been home to oil refineries — and their union employees. And it is just miles from Delaware, which he represented in the U.S. Senate for more than 30 years.

More than a dozen current and former union leaders and workers who spoke to Reuters recently in Philadelphia, questioned Biden’s loyalty.

In embracing calls to phase out the fossil fuel industry that many of the region’s pipefitters and steelworkers rely on for jobs, they say, the former vice president and Democratic front-runner risks losing his “hard-hat” appeal in a critical swing state.

���I think Biden has taken our votes for granted. Our plant closed and we didn’t hear from him, said Ryan O’Callaghan, the former union head of a now-shuttered Philadelphia refinery.

The Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery, the largest and oldest on the U.S. East Coast, closed its doors in August after a massive fire, idling more than 1,000 employees including some 650 union workers.

For Biden, large job cuts in a key battleground state could have been a ready-made opportunity to burnish his blue-collar bona fides and force Republican President Donald Trump to defend how a major refinery in the state shut on his watch. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 with a margin of less than 1 percentage point over Democrat Hillary Clinton. Trump also prevailed with narrow margins in Michigan and Wisconsin, traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states.

Clinton beat Trump by only 9 percentage points among voters from union households, according to exit polls, much less than President Barack Obama’s 18-point advantage over Mitt Romney in 2012.

When auto union workers voted to strike at General Motors <GM.N> on Sunday, Biden tweeted, “Proud to stand with @UAW to demand fair wages and benefits for their members. America’s workers deserve better.”

But his silence on the refinery – and that of other Democratic presidential candidates for that matter – suggests how the party’s aggressive environmental agenda may be boxing Biden out of an issue that seemingly plays into his brand of politics.

Biden is not the only Democrat who must reconcile calls to phase out fossil fuels with the need to attract union workers who rely on refineries, power plants and pipelines.

But as someone who draws on his upbringing in the working class stronghold of Scranton, in northeastern Pennsylvania, and has been speaking the language of unions for years, Biden offers himself as the only candidate who can bring back Rust Belt workers who defected from Democrats to vote for Trump in 2016.

Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin & Marshall University in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said Biden needs to walk a finer line than some of his progressive rivals who can offer a full-throated endorsement on a range of policies without fear of angering moderates.

“Right now, he’s trapped between his historical support for the unions on issues of energy and the left wing of his party on environmental issues who are pushing for a Green New Deal, and he’s needs them both,” Madonna said.

Philadelphia labor support is important to any Democrat looking to win a statewide election, because large turnout in the region can offset Republican margins in the central part of the state, he said.

VYING FOR UNION BACKING

The criticism from workers in Biden’s own backyard underscores his challenges.

Most workers at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery were laid off without severance pay and extended health benefits, while top executives collected $4.5 million worth of retention bonuses just weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy in July.

“He says the right things, but actions speak louder than words. I am not sure anyone could say he’s been there for the refineries at the moment,” said Denis Stephano, a Democratic activist and retired union head of a different refinery just outside Philadelphia.

Biden’s campaign did not directly respond to why he has stayed silent on the shuttered refinery, but noted Biden’s history of supporting labor, including helping usher in the 2008 bailout of the auto industry and opposing Republican-led efforts to limit union participation. Campaign officials also referred to how Biden’s clean energy plan calls for replacing oil industry jobs with well-paying, green-energy jobs.

Biden has won some union backing. The International Association of Firefighters – one of the nation’s largest unions with some 300,000 members – endorsed Biden on the first day of his campaign. The firefighters did not endorse any candidate in 2016.

The United Food and Commercial Works 1776 Keystone State, with some 35,000 members in Pennsylvania, has decided to endorse Biden, union president Wendell Young told Reuters for the first time.

“He has been a rock-solid supporter of labor over all these years. As much as I like all the Democrats, I know Joe and I know what Joe has done,” Young said.

But with 20 Democrats vying for the White House, including U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren whose anti-Wall Street message and opposition to trade deals also plays well with the blue collar constituency, most unions are unlikely to rush with an endorsement.

Sanders in August won the endorsement from the 35,000-strong United Electrical, Radio and Machine Workers of America, which has long supported the Vermont senator.

The signs of schism among union members when it comes to Biden are evident.

“If Joe is the candidate, he will definitely get our support,” Pat Eiding, head of Philadelphia’s AFL-CIO, said. “I do think with the refinery in Philadelphia, there are legitimate questions being asked about where he is.”

James Maravelias, head of Delaware’s AFL-CIO, which represents some 40,000 workers and endorsed Clinton in 2016, said 2020 Democratic candidates need to show why they deserve their backing.

“If Democrats think that trade union support is a slam dunk, they are sorely mistaken,” Maravelias said. “As for Joe Biden, I am not sure where he is on these issues. Haven’t seen him a long time.”

(Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw, Editing by Soyoung Kim and Leslie Adler)

from IJR https://ift.tt/2O6Fcra via IFTTT

[kacydeneen]

Health Care Vote a Pre-Existing Condition for Ill.'s Roskam

Susan Kaye Quinn joined the Republican Party in her early 20s for its conservative economic policies and said she was a dedicated member over the next three decades. She voted straight-ticket Republican, campaigning for candidates in her home state of Illinois and attending party events around her congressional district in the suburbs north and west of Chicago.

"I was a part of the party until they nominated Donald Trump," said Quinn, a 53-year-old novelist and former environmental engineer, in a phone interview. "But I didn't leave the Republican Party, the party left me."

Suspicious Packages Sent to Clinton, Obama, CNN Offices in NYC

Appalled by Trump's rhetoric and many of his policies, Quinn crossed party lines in 2016 to vote for the Democratic candidates for president and Congress, she said. Hillary Clinton carried Illinois' 6th Congressional District by seven points even as the Republican House incumbent, U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam, was easily reelected to a sixth term.

"The Republicans threw out their principles," Quinn said. "They overlooked moral issues, Russia meddling in our elections. They overlooked all of that to gain power in Trump’s popularity."

Young People Back Single-Payer Health Care, Poll Finds

This article, part 4 in a series, examines one of the key battleground races for control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 6 midterm elections. Carried by grassroots momentum, Democrats must take 23 seats from Republicans to win the balance of power. They are contending with Republicans' experience and organization, and an outspoken but polarizing president.

Democrats looking to regain control of the House are hoping to separate socially progressive, economically conservative Republican voters in the 6th District from a Republican Party that moved further to the right on positions of abortion, immigration and LGBTQ rights, among other issues. Two issues they have seized on are health care and opposition to Trump's tax bill. 

Agencies Were Blindsided by Trump's 'Zero Tolerance' Policy, Report Says

Republicans in districts that went for Clinton have been forced to thread a line between appealling to moderates fed up with Trump while maintaining support among the president's base. 

“It’s a tough year for Republicans in suburban Illinois, we know it, but Congressman Roskam has stood up to the President on issues, especially trade and is unique in his style and not a cookie cutter Republican,” said Kirk Dillard, a former DuPage County Republican chairman and veteran of Illinois politics, in an emailed statement to NBC. “Peter Roskam is on sound footing with his base.”

Roskamin touts himself as a moderate who opposes Trump's trade war, has advocated for a universal background checks system and elimination of bump stocks. Despite voting repeatedly to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Roskam said he supports protections for pre-existing conditions and has proposed expanding access to pre-tax health savings accounts to help pay for deductibles. The 57-year-old from Wheaton is also staunchly anti-abortion and supports legislation banning the use of federal dollars from going to organizations that provide abortion services.

"Those are the things that I'm voting on and I think those are the things that represent voters of the 6th District," Roskam told NBC. "And the proof of that is I've consistently won these elections with these views."

But Roskam's attempts to repeal the ACA while refusing to hold town halls with constituents hasn't sat well with a number of conservative and independent voters in the district. And neither did the $1.5 trillion Republican tax bill Roskam helped write, which will hurt some in high-tax states like Illinois by capping their state and local tax deductions.

"How do you respond when your representative doesn't hold a town hall to avoid hearing criticism and makes no bones about the fact the he has increased our tax burden?" Kenneth Hillman, a father of three from Cary, told NBC in a phone interview.

Others disenchanted with the congressman they once supported are evangelicals — voters Roskam has historically relied on — who feel that many Republican policies are contrary to Christian values.

Kristin Sterling, a 52-year-old bookkeeper at a Presbyterian church in DuPage County, told NBC she had voted for Roskam because their mothers were involved in a church women's group together and she believed "he was very religious and Christian. But the idea that we are all about ourselves, would strip health care from the poor and sick, and don't care about neighbors and the community, really bothered me." 

The Democrat hoping to capitalize on Roskam's newfound weakness is Sean Casten, a clean-energy entrepreneur and political newcomer from Downers Grove. Casten emerged from a crowded field to defeat initial frontrunner Kelly Mazeski, a breast cancer survivor, in the primary.

Casten has made protecting and expanding health care access under the Affordable Care Act a top priority of his campaign. He says he's "unapologetically" pro-choice and supports legislation that will protect young immigrants living under former President Barack Obama's now-threatened Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.

Casten has also vowed to work on restoring state and local tax deductions and proposes investments in infrastructure and clean energy as a way to boost the middle class economy.

That appeal seems to be working. Earlier this month, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its rating for the district from tossup to leaning Democratic.

"Democrats didn't get their ideal nominee here back in March, but in this kind of political environment, it may not matter," said Cook's David Wasserman in his ratings analysis of the race. "Roskam, who hasn't had a competitive race since beating now-Sen. Tammy Duckworth for this seat in 2006, is now trailing Casten in both parties' polling."

Red, Blue and Green The 6th District is predominantly white, highly educated and affluent. More than 50 percent of residents have college degrees and the median household income is just shy of $100,000, according to the Census. That's potentially bad news for Roskam in the current environment — a March poll from Pew Research Center found a larger share of college graduates favor Democrats.

Roskam's seat has been solidly Republican since the mid-1970s, reinforced in 2011 when the Democratic-controlled state legislature redrew the district to pack in Republicans and maximize Democrats' hold on surrounding districts. But despite the gerrymandering, the C-shaped district that arcs through Chicago suburbs in five counties has voted for presidents of both parties in recent years: Obama in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016.

"When Hillary won in 2016 we realized there are more of us here than we think, and there are fewer hard-right Republicans in this district than we assumed," said Leslie Sadowski, a liberal who moved to Downers Grove in 2012. "In the past, I think most people took for granted that it was a red district and stayed home."

Peter Cooper, a lawyer from DuPage County, said he's never been involved in Democratic politics and voted Republican in the 2016 primary, but did not support Trump. 

"I was so appalled by the tenor and tone of President-elect Trump that I began looking for opportunities to get involved," he said.

Cooper joined political activism groups, encouraged friends to consider runs for public office and has volunteered for Casten's campaign.    

And Cooper is not alone. More than 67,000 residents voted in this year's crowded Democratic primary, up from just 8,615 in the 2014 midterm primary.

Roskam, who ran unopposed both years, received 56,544 votes this year. The Republican's vote total was down by nearly 9,000 from four years earlier.

Dillard warned not to discount Roskam's support among a "tried and true conservative" base, which includes evangelicals, and told NBC he believes they will be loyal to the congressman "even if some want to break with Republicans."

Both candidates have seen millions of dollars pour in from their parties and outside groups.

Roskam spent about $800,000 more than Casten and had nearly $500,000 more on hand through the end of September, according to their Federal Election Commission filings. More than $1 million has been spent by outside groups to attack Casten or back Roskam, compared to less than $200,000 to support Casten or oppose Roskam.

Roskam's Pre-Existing Condition: Voting Record Wasserman noted Roskam's vulnerability stems from his party-line votes. According to the political analysis website FiveThirtyEight, the congressman has voted in line with Trump's position 94.6 percent of the time.

"I don't see why we'd fire our representative to get back at the president," Brad Hagstrom, a Roskam supporter from Downers Grove, told NBC. "I believe Peter is an American first and a Republican second."

In a September debate with Casten, Roskam stood by his congressional record, arguing that many of the votes included in the FiveThirtyEight statistics were for "common-sense" legislation like hurricane and opioid relief, support for veterans, funding for government agencies and sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea. Roskam called Casten's claim that he's aligned with the White House an "over-characterization" and said he's condemned Trump both privately and publicly on issues like trade tariffs and funding cuts to the Great Lakes clean-up and preservation program. 

But it was Roskam's repeated votes to repeal and replace the Obama-era Affordable Care Act, most recently by backing the GOP's American Health Care Act last summer, that voters who spoke to NBC found "reprehensible." The bill, a priority for the Trump administration, passed the House but was narrowly voted down in the Senate.

For months before the vote, Roskam had refused to hold town hall meetings with constituents who were concerned about losing pre-existing condition protections they had under the Affordable Care Act. Citing the "drama" at those types of events, he instead conducted tele-town halls, "which are much more civil," he told NBC.

Few of the constituents who spoke to NBC have been satisfied with the "don't call me, we'll call you" format, which selects callers and prescreens questions, and Roskam has been hounded by protesters demanding a public meeting.

Roskam told NBC that the ACA is a "catastrophic failure" because of rising premiums and limited providers in the exchange for some areas of the country.

However, experts argue that a major factor behind rising premiums and the reduction of health care options was uncertainty over the law's future caused by frequent attempts by the Republican party to kill or weaken it. The average price of premiums for benchmark plans will actually go down by about 1.5 percent in 2019, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced this month. That's because insurers who increased the price of 2018 premiums in reaction to the failed Republican repeal bill are now rolling back prices to correct for overinflation.

Roskam said he is advocating for a replacement health care plan that will increase competition, lower premiums and include protections for pre-existing conditions. But with the individual mandate repealed under the tax bill, many of the constituents who spoke to NBC said they question the feasibility of attaining a comparable level of coverage to the ACA without either increasing cost or cutting services.

"Insurance as a business model is made up of a risk pool. You need healthy people to balance the cost of the unhealthy ones," said Cooper, the DuPage lawyer. "I think it's disingenuous to suggest that we are going to reduce premiums but increase benefits, but we need to find better and more efficient ways to provide health care."

Cooper said he believes in access to health care for all and is skeptical of Roskam's "lip service" to pre-existing conditions without offering specifics on an overall plan.

Casten's platform calls for building on "Obamacare," as the Affordable Care Act is often called, and moving the country toward universal health care by creating a public option for people to buy into the Medicare system.

"What we should be doing from a data perspective is recognize that as a country we spend more per capita on health care than any other country in the world and have worse outcomes than every other country that has universal health care. And the ACA was not universal health care but it was closer than what we had before," Casten said in a phone interview.

Cutting the SALT on Taxes  Like many Republican members of Congress in Democratic-leaning states across the country, Roskam faces the challenge of defending the $10,000 limit on state and local tax (SALT) deductions that were part of the Republicans' Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts of 2017. 

In a high-tax state like Illinois, where more than 43 percent of returns claim SALT, property and sales taxes, many voters in the 6th District may be particularly hard hit by the cap on their SALT deductions, according to the Tax Policy Center.

Roskam, who is the chairman of the Tax Policy Subcommittee for the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, said the original version of the GOP bill had a zero-deduction allowance and that he insisted on the $10,000 break, calling it a "sweet spot" for his district. He maintains that middle-class families will see a net benefit due to changes in other parts of the tax law.

But constituents who aren't seeing a big bump in their paychecks are skeptical. 

"My property taxes alone is over the $10,000 cap, so the SALT limit will definitely hurt my family this year," said Carolynne Funk, a mother of four from Lake Zurich, who plans to vote for Casten.

Proponents of the SALT cap, like Hagstrom and Deborah Kraus of Hillsdale, defend the decision. Kraus said that while she may pay more in taxes, limiting the deduction puts pressure on the "Illinois machine" to reduce taxes and tighten its spending belt.

For Crystal Lake resident Greg Alexander, his biggest concern is the long-term impact of the $1.5 trillion tax cut on the federal deficit budget. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that it will add $1.9 trillion to the national debt by 2028, and could be higher if provisions of the tax cut that are set to expire are renewed instead. 

"Eventually the deficit will need to be paid down, and they are going to do that by cutting Social Security, Medicare and other safety nets," Alexander said. "It's just horrible."

Asked about concerns over the deficit, Roskam told NBC that said while he understands the criticism, the money borrowed to pay for tax cuts will keep companies and jobs in Illinois and the U.S. "The question is do you take on debt to buy something that is increasing in value and the answer is 'yes,'" he added. 

Casten has vowed to restore SALT deductions and said he supports lifting the payroll cap, currently $128,400, on earnings subject to the Social Security tax in order to fund entitlement programs long-term. He said he also supports raising the gas tax, which was last increased in 1993, to pay for road and other infrastructure projects.   

"These are the things that are going to help the economy and the middle class," Casten said. "Not huge tax cuts skewed to the very wealthy."

More Than Just 'Pro-Birth' Jeff Greenberg, a historically single-issue voter from Wheaton, told NBC he is abandoning the anti-abortion ticket this year to vote for Casten, a shift for a district that was previously represented by Henry Hyde, the namesake of the Hyde Amendment restricting federal funding for abortion.

Greenberg, a "pro-life evangelical Christian" who teaches geology and environmental science at Wheaton College, the alma mater of Rev. Billy Graham, said that while he disagrees with Casten on the issue of abortion, he feels his proposals for health care, taxes and for tackling climate change are more aligned with his Christian values than those of Roskam.

Greenberg said he had always voted a pro-life ticket, supporting Roskam in at least two elections. But with Roskam defending Trump's Muslim ban, repeatedly voting to repeal the ACA, failing to protect "Dreamers" and supporting a tax bill that "further widens the income inequality gap," Greenberg said he's realized that anti-abortion advocacy can't be the only thing he looks for in a candidate.   

"To be a pro-life, you got to be more than just pro-birth," Greenberg said.

Roskam did not respond directly to the "pro-birth" criticism but he told NBC he's "not going to be defensive about being pro-life" and condemned Casten for not supporting the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Act — restricting abortions at 20 weeks — and favoring expanding the availability of taxpayer-funded abortions.

Casten maintained that abortion should be a decision between a woman and her doctor and not the government. He told NBC he believes the only way to actually reduce incidents of abortion is by decreasing the chances of unplanned pregnancy through access to contraception, maternity health services and sex-education. Those are all positions that Greenberg said he supports.       

Casten is also capitalizing on a growing contingent of voters who support women's reproductive rights and are frustrated over the Republicans' resolve to defund organizations that provide preventative care like Planned Parenthood. 

"As a college student and a young professional, I relied on Planned Parenthood for affordable birth control," said 49-year-old Erin Micklo of Glen Ellyn. "This administration's determination to destroy both affordable contraception for those who cannot afford it and their desire to make medical and reproductive decisions for women is abhorrent and terrifying."

Micklo has voted for Roskam four times, including 2016, she said. But the high school teacher said she is the parent of a gay daughter and a son with a disability and is actively working to flip the 6th in the midterms in order to protect the rights of LGBTQ Americans and pre-existing conditions afforded under the ACA so that her son will always have access to healthcare.

"In some ways, at nearly 50 years old, I feel more alive and energized than I've ever felt in my life," Micklo added.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser. Health Care Vote a Pre-Existing Condition for Ill.'s Roskam published first on Miami News

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On the roster: How a lot of an issue will Pelosi be for Dems in 2018? – Saturday is major day within the Aloha State – Ballot: Most Trump voters saved heat emotions for him – Manafort trial decide mysteriously delays testimony – Be careful for the cow-lvary HOW MUCH OF A PROBLEM WILL PELOSI BE FOR DEMS IN 2018?  WaPo: “Whereas Democrats develop optimistic about their probabilities of taking management of the Home in November, they’re more and more anxious that the presence of their longtime and polarizing chief, Nancy Pelosi, is making it more durable for a lot of of their candidates to compete in essential swing districts. Republicans, clinging to a 23-seat majority within the Home, have made the Home minority chief a central factor of their assault advertisements and are portraying lots of their opponents as inextricably tied to the liberal from San Francisco. On the similar time, some Democrats are expressing alarm that she is standing in the best way of the following era of leaders. The strain was obvious Thursday, when Rashida Tlaib grew to become not less than the 27th Democratic Home candidate to say no to say whether or not she would assist Pelosi. Some Democrats concern that anti-Pelosi assaults aimed on the Democratic candidate on this week’s particular election in an Ohio congressional district helped push the Republican to a slim lead. The dynamic creates a conundrum for Democrats, lots of whom depend on Pelosi’s fundraising prowess and admire her political savvy and standing as one of many nation’s most influential feminine leaders. However some are also starting to talk out about how permitting Pelosi to stay accountable for the caucus might cut back the scale of a Democratic wave in November or worse, imperil their capacity to win the bulk.” Dems might face one other hurdle in Minnesota – AP: “For all of the discuss of a blue wave sweeping Democrats again into the Home majority this fall, their efforts may very well be thwarted in one of many nation’s bluest states. … Democratic incumbents in each Minnesota districts are leaving workplace, and the races to exchange them are extensively rated as tossups. ‘Minnesota goes to be floor zero for management of the Home,’ stated Corry Bliss, director of the Conservative Management Fund, an excellent PAC aligned with Home Speaker Paul Ryan. Former U.S. Rep. Steve Israel of New York, who served 4 years as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee, agreed. … Regardless of Minnesota’s status as a liberal stronghold — it hasn’t gone for a Republican president since 1972 — the state has grow to be a significant battleground for the events. Tens of hundreds of thousands of dollars in outdoors political promoting have flooded the state lately as Republicans tried to choose off outstate members of Congress whereas Democrats centered on the suburbs. The GOP now holds three of the state’s eight Home seats.”

THE RULEBOOK: TAKE NOTICE “In a society beneath the types of which the stronger faction can readily unite and oppress the weaker, anarchy could as actually be stated to reign as in a state of nature, the place the weaker particular person shouldn’t be secured towards the violence of the stronger…” – Alexander Hamilton or James Madison, Federalist No. 51

TIME OUT: BIRDS OF A FEATHER NatGeo: “Scientists are betting on a brand new system to alert us to impending earthquakes: birds sporting tiny backpacks. Although nobody is aware of exactly why, animals usually act atypically earlier than an earthquake or different catastrophe. Flocks of birds may migrate off track or be energetic at uncommon occasions, says Martin Wikelski, an ecologist at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Ornithology and a fellow of the Nationwide Geographic Society. He directs a satellite tv for pc monitoring mission referred to as Worldwide Cooperation for Animal Analysis Utilizing Area. ICARUS will use light-weight digital tags—affixed as backpack harnesses, leg bands, and even hats—to observe the exercise patterns of tens of 1000’s of birds, bats, and different creatures for irregularities that counsel an earthquake is imminent. A world community of volunteers has began to tag animals with the units—Wikelski calls them ‘wearables for wildlife’—which is able to monitor and beam their actions and different knowledge to the Worldwide Area Station. There Russian astronauts will set up the ICARUS data-gathering throughout an upcoming spacewalk. The end result, Wikelski hopes, might be a disaster-prediction community akin to an ‘web of wings.’”   Flag on the play? – E mail us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM along with your suggestions, feedback or questions.

SCOREBOARD Trump job efficiency  Common approval: 41.2 p.c Common disapproval: 53 p.c Web Rating: -11.eight factors Change from one week in the past: down Zero.four factors [Common contains: Gallup: 41% approve – 54% disapprove; IBD: 41% approve – 50% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 41% approve – 51% disapprove; Quinnipiac College: 38% approve – 58% disapprove; NBC/WSJ: 45% approve – 52% disapprove.] Management of Home Republican common: 41.four p.c Democratic common: 48 p.c Benefit: Democrats plus 6.6 factors Change from one week in the past: no change   [Common contains: IBD: 45% Dems – 45% GOP; NPR/PBS/Marist: 47% Dems – 40% GOP; Quinnipiac College: 51% Dems – 39% GOP; NBC/WSJ: 49% Dems – 43% GOP; Fox Information: 48% Dems – 40% GOP.]

SATURDAY IS PRIMARY DAY IN THE ALOHA STATE Politico: “Voters in Hawaii head to the polls Saturday for an additional major day. And when Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Hawaii) declared she would attempt to dethrone Democratic Gov. David Ige, it appeared like her major to lose. Public polling early within the 12 months had Hanabusa lapping Ige (one from Mason-Dixon Polling in March had her up 20 within the major). Hanabusa’s camp painted Ige, who defeated former Gov. Neil Abercrombie in a 2014 major, as an absentee governor who badly mishandled the false-alarm missile alert in January. … Ige’s marketing campaign has run on this, securing the endorsement of in style Mayor Harry Kim and working an advert that includes his response to the eruption. Public polls tightened and ultimately confirmed Ige regaining a lead over Hanabusa because the marketing campaign dragged. … Hanabusa’s marketing campaign maintains it feels good concerning the race. … The first race to exchange Hanabusa in Hawaii’s 1st District might ship a well-recognized face again to Congress: former Rep. Ed Case. The well-known, average Case may very well be the front-runner in a crowded race that additionally options Lt. Gov. Doug Chin and state Rep. Kaniela Ing, for whom Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned on Thursday.”

GOP seeks Trump’s assist in Ariz. Senate race – Politico: “Nationwide Republicans are asking President Donald Trump to intervene within the Arizona Senate major amid rising fears that the GOP will nominate an unelectable candidate and cede the seat to Democrats in November. Throughout a latest telephone name, Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) requested the president to endorse GOP Rep. Martha McSally, extensively considered because the institution favourite within the Aug. 28 major, in accordance with two senior Republicans acquainted with the dialog. Trump, in accordance with one of many Republicans, was non-committal and didn’t say sure or no to the request. McSally is going through former state Sen. Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, each of whom are working as conservative insurgents. Polls have constantly proven McSally main within the major, however Republicans concern that if Ward or Arpaio win the nomination it could successfully hand a victory to the anticipated Democratic nominee, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. Neither the White Home nor the NRSC would remark.”

GOP tremendous PAC creates presence in six new districts – The Hill: “The Congressional Management Fund, the tremendous PAC aligned with retiring Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), is increasing its presence in key GOP-held districts as Republicans search to fend off a possible Democratic ‘blue wave’ on this 12 months’s midterm elections. The group introduced Friday that it’s opening subject places of work in six Republican-led districts, bringing its complete to 40 places of work in aggressive Home races throughout the nation. The brand new subject places of work are supposed to spice up GOP Reps. Rodney Davis (In poor health.), Randy Hultgren (In poor health.), George Holding (N.C.) and Pete Classes (Texas), in addition to now-open seats in North Carolina’s ninth Congressional District and Kansas’ 2nd District.”

Kobach to recuse himself from Kansas vote-counting – Fox Information: “Kris Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state locked in a good Republican gubernatorial major battle towards incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer, stated Thursday evening that he plans to recuse himself from the vote-counting course of. Earlier Thursday, Kansas election officers revealed that Kobach – who acquired President Trump’s endorsement – was forward of Colyer by simply 121 votes after two counties reported discrepancies of their preliminary tallies from Tuesday’s election. The tightening of the vote rely prompted Colyer to challenge a letter, demanding that Kobach – the state’s high elections official — chorus from instructing county election officers on the counting of ballots, and Thursday evening Kobach stated he would adjust to the request. ‘I’ll be glad to recuse myself,’ Kobach instructed CNN. ‘However as I say, it actually doesn’t make any distinction. My workplace doesn’t rely the votes. The counties do.’”

Blankenship heads to W Va. Supreme Court docket along with his poll struggle – Charleston [W. Va.] Gazette-Mail: “Don Blankenship is taking his battle to run for the U.S. Senate to the West Virginia Supreme Court docket. In accordance with a petition for a writ of mandamus filed with the state’s excessive court docket Thursday, Blankenship and the Structure Occasion are difficult West Virginia Secretary of State Mac Warner’s choice to disclaim Blankenship’s candidacy papers to run with the celebration. Warner denied Blankenship’s submitting, citing West Virginia’s ‘sore loser’ regulation… Nonetheless, Blankenship is difficult the denial with two central arguments: His legal professional, Robert Bastress, argues within the submitting that state regulation, as of the time Blankenship filed as a Republican in January, didn’t include any ‘sore loser’ provision because the secretary of state’s 2018 election guidebook states; and Bastress says adjustments to the code handed by the Legislature this 12 months and enacted into regulation in June can’t be retroactively utilized to the marketing campaign, which was already underway.”

Stormy Daniels legal professional exploring a run for the president – Des Moines Register: “Michael Avenatti has arrived in Iowa. After three canceled flights and a 700-mile highway journey, the lawyer identified for representing grownup movie actress Stormy Daniels in her case towards Republican President Donald Trump, is able to put his stake within the floor within the first-in-the-nation caucus state. ‘I’m exploring a run for the presidency of the US, and I wished to return to Iowa and hearken to individuals and study some points which are going through the residents of Iowa and do my homework,’ Avenatti instructed the Des Moines Register in an interview Thursday.” POLL: MOST TRUMP VOTERS KEPT WARM FEELINGS FOR HIM Pew Analysis Heart: “Within the wake of Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory, an awesome majority of those that stated they’d voted for him had ‘heat’ emotions for him. By this spring, greater than a 12 months into Trump’s presidency, the emotions of those similar Trump voters had modified little or no. In March, 82% of those that reported voting for Trump – and whom researchers had been capable of confirm by means of voting data as having voted in 2016 – stated they felt ‘warmly’ towards Trump, with 62% saying they’d ‘very heat’ emotions towards him. Their emotions had been expressed on a Zero-100 ‘feeling thermometer.’ A ranking of 51 or greater is ‘heat,’ with 76 or greater indicating ‘very heat’ emotions. The views of those similar Trump voters had been fairly related in November 2016: At the moment, 87% had heat emotions towards him, together with 63% who had very heat emotions.”

MANAFORT TRIAL JUDGE MYSTERIOUSLY DELAYS TESTIMONY Fox Information: “Choose T.S. Ellis III mysteriously delayed testimony Friday within the case of ex-Trump marketing campaign chairman Paul Manafort, pushing off the day’s proceedings for hours after prosecutors as soon as once more complained about his criticism of them. It’s not clear if the delay is related to the criticism filed by Particular Counsel Robert Mueller’s group. Ellis on Friday additionally empathically reminded the jury that they need to chorus from speaking concerning the case with others – stoking hypothesis the delay may very well be associated to juror points. However the postponement is critical, as prosecutors had been hoping to complete calling witnesses Friday — and Ellis has a status as a stickler for conserving trials shifting. Within the Mueller group movement filed Friday morning, they accused the decide of unfairly criticizing them in court docket, saying it’s doable his latest feedback might ‘confuse and mislead the jury.’ Mueller deputy Andrew Weissmann and different attorneys on the group particularly famous how Ellis made destructive feedback this week about their concentrate on a financial institution mortgage Manafort utilized for however didn’t obtain.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY Trump hosted a roundtable on jail reform with state officers – WaPo

North Korea threatens to stall denuclearization in warning to US – Fox Information Mass. joins rising checklist of states with computerized voter registration measure – Axios Mom-daughter deportation halted by decide threatening to carry Classes in contempt – Fox Information

AUDIBLE: CC COMFORTABLY SMUG “Liberals can’t bully me, information can’t bully me, the hip-hop group, they will’t bully me.” – Kanye West defending his assist of President Trump on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Reside” Thursday evening. ANY GIVEN SUNDAY This weekend Martha MacCallum is in for Mr. Sunday. She’s going to sit down with Senators Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. and Jack Reed, D-R.I. Watch “Fox Information Sunday with Chris Wallace.” Examine native listings for broadcast occasions in your space.     #mediabuzz – Host Howard Kurtz has the newest tackle the week’s media protection. Watch #mediabuzz Sundays at 11 a.m. ET.

Share your colour commentary: E mail us at  HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure that to incorporate your identify and hometown. WATCH OUT FOR THE COW-LVARY Tampa Bay Instances: “The herded grew to become the herders Monday when a lady fleeing police by means of a pasture was chased down by greater than a dozen cows, main her straight to officers and arrest, in accordance with the Sanford [Florida] Police Division. A Seminole County Sheriff’s Workplace helicopter group captured video of the cows bucking tendencies and defying conventional roles to grow to be the heroes on this story of justice, not simply mere namesakes. The video reveals Jennifer Anne Kaufman working by means of the sphere being chased by the cows, who labored collectively to corral the suspect. … ‘Truly, a big group of cows is following her for a very good visible. It seems to be like they might assault her,’ the helicopter group might be heard saying. ‘She’s fairly far into the sphere now. For those who see the big group of cows, they’re actually following her and chasing her.’ The herd of cattle chased Kaufman proper to a fence, the place authorities had been ready on the opposite facet.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES… “Liberal internationalists rely on globalization, neoconservatives on democratization to get us to the sunny uplands of worldwide concord. However what unites them is the idea that such uplands exist and are achievable. Each consider within the perfectibility, if not of man, then of the worldwide system. Each consider within the arrow of historical past.” – Charles Krauthammer writing within the Washington Publish, Might 26, 2016. 

Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Need FOX Information Halftime Report in your inbox on daily basis? Enroll right here.

This text was written by Fox Information workers.

The post How much of a problem will Pelosi be for Dems in 2018? appeared first on BoomBerg News.

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Be Encouraged: To the So-Called Red States from info@martinomalley.com

Blue State Digital Mailing Template       : Democrats everywhere are organizing rallies, calling their representatives, packing town halls, and winning critical special elections. With your support, I've been criss-crossing the country headlining fundraisers and campaign events to help push our candidates over the finish line. Can I count on you to help keep me on the road for Democrats? We won an Iowa House seat in January, with an astonishing 72-27 victory when Hillary only carried the seat 52-41. In Delaware, we won a State Senate seat by 16 points when in 2014, Democrats won by a mere 2 points. Now it's time to target the so-called "red states" like Nebraska and Georgia that our Party has ignored for far too long. Tomorrow, I'm headed to Omaha, Nebraska to campaign for Heath Mello in support of his effort to flip the Mayor's seat from Republican to Democrat. A 50-state strategy means electing Democrats everywhere. Donate $3 to elect Democrats from all 50 states.   Yours truly, Martin   Dems look south to test anti-Trump strategy By Eric Bradner, CNN Updated 8:38 AM ET, Fri March 31, 2017 Roswell, Georgia (CNN) Voters here sent Newt Gingrich to Congress for two decades. Tom Price, the conservative Republican tapped by President Donald Trump to dismantle Obamacare, represented the district for another dozen years. In other words, this isn't the type of place where Democrats often seek solace.   But the party, reeling from Hillary Clinton's loss in November and locked out of power in Washington, is looking to Atlanta's northern suburbs to test its ability to bounce back. While most of the country tries to move on from a bruising campaign, voters in Georgia's 6th congressional district return to the polls in April for a special election to replace Price, who Trump selected to become Health and Human Services secretary. Democrats are aiming to turn the race into an early referendum on the Trump presidency and hope success here could be replicated in gubernatorial races later this year in Virginia and New Jersey -- where suburban voters are also crucial -- and maybe even provide a playbook for regaining control of the House next year.   "It's a bellwether for what the Democratic Party is going to be about," Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez told me recently, almost giddy about the prospects for the race.   There's little reliable polling about the contest and, given recent political history, Democrats are careful not to display overconfidence. But the party is optimistic about its main candidate in the race, 30-year-old Jon Ossoff, a former congressional staffer who could benefit from demographic changes in the district and has a $4 million campaign war chest largely funded by small donors. But most importantly, Democrats sense a distrust of Trump that could help them here and in other wealthy, highly-educated and increasingly diverse congressional districts around the country that might otherwise support Republicans.   There's data to back up their suspicions. This district experienced one of the biggest collapses in support for a Republican presidential candidate last year (the biggest shift played out in Utah). While Mitt Romney bested Barack Obama by 23 points here in 2012, Trump beat Clinton by less than 2 points, according to data from the liberal Daily Kos and confirmed by representatives for both the Democratic and Republican congressional campaign committees.   This suburban region is the epicenter of an evolution that played out across the Sun Belt last year but was largely overshadowed by Trump's stunning victories in traditionally Democratic strongholds in the industrial Midwest. In Georgia and Arizona, where Clinton only made a last-minute effort to compete, she came closer to beating Trump than she did in the more traditional swing states of Ohio and Iowa. Reliably red Texas was also closer than Iowa.   So what does it all mean? New battlegrounds are emerging and it's hard to know how it will all shake out.   "Georgia's no closer than Ohio?" Gingrich said during a recent conversation. "With everything you and I knew about politics up until Election Night 2016, we'd have thought that was impossible."   Energized Democrats Democrats in Atlanta's conservative-leaning northern suburbs are feeling something they're not used to: energy.   As the national party gathered in a downtown ballroom on a Saturday morning last month to elect Perez as the DNC chief, more than 300 people turned out to a Democratic breakfast in Cobb County, just northwest of the city. The standing room only crowd was a noteworthy showing in a county that drew nationwide attention during the 1990s for passing a resolution condemning homosexuality.   "It's bigger than you know," Jaha Howard, a dentist who narrowly lost a surprisingly close state Senate race and is seen locally as a rising star, told me after the breakfast. "And it's a bigger tent of Democrats than we typically see."   Three hours later, hundreds more showed up in Roswell, where Ossoff was holding the first of two events to kick off his campaign's door-to-door canvassing efforts.   "It has very little to do with me and more to do with the timing and intensity of grassroots enthusiasm," Ossoff told me the previous night as he sipped tea alongside his longtime girlfriend, a student at the nearby Emory University medical school, at Meehan's Public House, a downtown Irish bar. "I think Atlanta can become -- and Georgia can become -- an economic powerhouse. I think that people here want access to more affordable health care choices. And I think people here are concerned that we're losing sight of those values."   Democrats' hopes here ride largely on the party's appeal to a large pool of suburban women, many of whom are relying on social media to organize. Hundreds have joined the Facebook page of a group called Liberal Moms of Roswell and Cobb or "LMRC" -- a coalition of progressives in the heart of the district.   Over coffee at the "Land of a Thousand Hills" in Roswell, three of the group's leaders told me the same story about discovering its existence. Their first thought: "I thought I was the only one." The group and others like it are giving liberals new opportunities to express themselves in communities where that previously didn't feel like an option. "The first time I put an Obama sign in our yard, our neighbor came over and jokingly threatened our lives," said Shari Sprigle, one of the group's members.   She said she was harassed while driving once, too. "Somebody honked at me to get me to roll down my window. My kid was in the back seat. I rolled down my window and she goes, 'Are you going to vote for Obama?' I said, 'Yeah, I am' -- you know, I thought she was, like, friendly. And then she told me I was going to hell. ...That's the environment here in Cobb County."   Now, she said, the group has "LMRC" car magnets -- and a game. When a member sees another member's vehicle in a parking lot, they flip those magnets upside down as a way to indicate the driver has been noticed. It's a way of sending a message: You're not alone.   Two co-founders -- Jen Cox and Lesley Bauer -- recently split off to form another women's group, named PaveItBlue, with an even narrower focus: Provide the grassroots support Ossoff will need to flip the 6th district for Democrats. Their first meeting was on a recent Sunday night.   Cox said members of the groups love to see -- and participate in -- "visibility efforts," which provide a psychological boost in an area where Democrats have long felt demoralized, and particularly for working mothers who don't have time to phone bank or canvass for candidates.   "It energizes them like they've never felt, and it creates that feeling, like, 'Oh my gosh, I am an activist.' And that's powerful," Cox said.   "Your data may not show that visibility efforts work, that having signs up here work. But we're telling you that it hits us at an emotional level -- that there's hope," she said. "You know, this is Newt Gingrich country. We've been left out for an entire generation. We don't feel left out anymore." Replacing Tom Price Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal set a special election for April 18 to replace Price. It's a "jungle" contest -- which means every candidate will be listed on the same ballot. If one of the 18 declared so far hits 50% plus one, he or she is the winner. If that doesn't happen, the top two finishers -- regardless of party -- advance to a June 20 runoff.   Already, 11 Republicans have entered the race -- including former Georgia secretary of state Karen Handel, former state senator Judson Hill, and Bruce LeVell, who helmed Trump's national diversity coalition and appears to be the first Trump aide to seek office since the billionaire businessman's election.   Two independents are in the running, as well.   Handel leads the way among the GOP, but Republicans are sharply divided over their field of candidates. Handel faces opposition from the conservative Club for Growth, which has launched TV ads attacking her spending as secretary of state and Fulton County commissioner and labeling her a "big-spending, career politician we can't trust with our money."   Dan Moody, meanwhile, got a big boost this week when Sen. David Perdue endorsed him in a 30-second TV spot, declaring the former state representative and businessman "one of us" who "cares more about getting results than getting credit."   The Democratic field, though, narrowed almost instantly, with one serious contender among the five declared candidates: Ossoff, who grew up in the northeastern Atlanta suburbs. Years earlier, Ossoff caught the attention of two of Georgia's most powerful Democrats -- Reps. John Lewis and Hank Johnson.   Ossoff impressed Lewis enough by writing letters to his office as a high school student that the civil rights legend offered him an internship. Then, after Johnson was elected in 2006, he hired Ossoff on Lewis's recommendation to work on his Washington staff while Ossoff was still a student at Georgetown University. Ossoff was as a staffer for Johnson for five years before going to the London School of Economics for a master's degree and then launching a documentary film company.   As he considered his candidacy, Ossoff lined up meetings with Johnson and Lewis, leaving with both of their endorsements.   As we sat in the Rayburn Room just outside the House chamber this month, Johnson heaped praise on Ossoff, saying it was the then-college student's use of Facebook that launched him to victory in 2006. So when Ossoff said he believed he could win, Johnson trusted his former staffer's political mind.   "Between me and you -- I certainly had my negative thought about whether or not Jon could win. But there was never any hesitation in terms of whether or not I would support him," Johnson said.   "The demographics of the state are changing," the six-term Democratic lawmaker said. It took "contortion" for Republicans to keep their seats safe after 2010, he said. But eventually, Johnson argued, the changing tides can't be stopped.   The support of Lewis and Johnson was enough to convince the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that the party had found a strong candidate -- despite the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund's efforts to seize on Ossoff's youth with a $2.2 million ad campaign using footage of him dressed as Han Solo while in college. The DCCC quickly moved staffers into the district, making clear it was prepared to spend money in a region national Democrats have largely avoided.   But it was the involvement of the liberal blog Daily Kos that really catapulted Ossoff onto the national map. The blog has been the largest driver of Ossoff's eye-popping $4 million fundraising effort to date. It bested its previous fundraising record for a single candidate -- $412,000 for Elizabeth Warren in 2012 -- in a single week. Daily Kos's pro-Ossoff fundraising efforts crossed the $1 million mark on February 28.   As Daily Kos political director David Nir and I exchanged emails this month, he argued that Georgia's 6th district "very well could be a test case for the future of Democratic targeting."   "It would generate even more excitement for future races. And I think it would terrify Republicans, because there are a lot of other districts like this one: traditionally GOP, but highly educated and very Trump-wary," Nir wrote.   What, though, about the record-breaking sums of money? Will such donation surges simply coincide with Trump actions that outrage the left?   "One thing I've experimented with is putting up blog posts asking people to contribute to Ossoff at times when people (myself included!) are really feeling angry and upset at Trump in order to give them something affirmative to do," Nir emailed. "For instance, I published this post the weekend Trump issued his travel ban. It raised almost $34,000. We then sent out an email based on that post and it raised another $118,000. We've seen similar responses in other similar situations as well."   National Republicans, meanwhile, are making plans to hammer Ossoff relentlessly.   They see three major points of attack against Ossoff: He's progressive enough to have become a darling of the liberal blogosphere, his filmmaking business did work for Qatar-owned Al Jazeera and the GOP believes he has inflated his resume.   Central to the resume argument: Ossoff has touted his national security clearance -- but he only held that clearance for five months before departing Johnson's staff.   "Over the past few decades, the voters of GA-06 have shown they are not interested in the representation of a far-left Hank Johnson-type candidate who embellishes his resume," National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Maddie Anderson said in an email. "We are looking forward to showing them that Jon Ossoff is not who he says he is in the coming days."   Nir said progressives are hoping for a win. But he also compared this race to one Democrats lost in 2005. In 2005, a hard-fought campaign by progressives brought Paul Hackett just three points away from victory in an Ohio congressional district that George W. Bush had just won by 28 points.   "That very tight margin in a race that should never have been competitive in the first place was a harbinger of 2006, when Democrats got extremely fired up and won a whole lot of previously red seats," he said.   National Democrats are careful to downplay expectations. Some party operatives said anything closer than a 60-40 blowout could be seen as promising. And because the race is a "jungle primary," Democrats won't yet officially endorse a candidate, even though Ossoff is the party's clear preference.   "There's no one here who's over-promising anything, because we recognize that this is still very challenging terrain," Perez said. "But we're working with the state party to build up our capacity and while we don't get involved in primaries, obviously, we are working and we will eventually be making an investment in this race to help another Democrat and to hold Trump accountable."   Gingrich, the man who once held the seat in play, is resisting the hype. He reminded me of his skepticism in 2014 when there was talk of Michelle Nunn, a Democrat with a legendary last name in Georgia politics, would beat Perdue for a Senate seat. Perdue wound up winning by nearly 8 points.   "Every election cycle, the Washington media has this idea that this is the year Georgia could be changing," the former speaker said. "And every election, it turns out not to be."     Donate                   PAID FOR BY O'SAY CAN YOU SEE PAC NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE 421 M St NW Washington, DC 20001Unsubscribe  

[patriotsnet]

How Many Registered Republicans In Maine

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How Many Registered Republicans In Maine

Map 2 And Table : Party Registration And The 2016 Presidential Vote

In Battleground States, Newly Registered Democrats Are Outnumbering Newly Registered Republicans

Of the 31 party registration states, 24 were carried in the 2016 presidential election by the party with the most registered voters in it. Donald Trump swept 11 of the 12 states with a Republican registration advantage, while Hillary Clinton won 13 of the 19 states which had more registered Democrats than Republicans. Four of the Democratic registration states that Trump took were in the South, led by Florida and North Carolina. He also overcame Democratic registration advantages in West Virginia and Pennsylvania to win both. The only state with more registered Republicans than Democrats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 was New Hampshire, where the outcome was very close.

Notes: An asterisk indicates states where there were more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans in October 2016. Independents include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into any particular category.

Richard Wingers Ballot Access News for October 2016 party registration data; America Votes 32 for 2016 presidential election results.

Voter Registration Indicates Growing Democratic Majority In Maine

1 year ago in Local

AUGUSTA, Maine Democrats in Maine have a large lead over Republicans in registering voters in Maine, though both parties have more members than theyve ever had in at least three decades.

Democrats currently have 386,786 registered voters and Republicans have 295,122. Though both numbers are expected to change the closer we draw to the 2020 election.

The Maine Secretary of States Office has compiled data that show; enrollments are the highest since at least 1990, the first year with available statistics, the Portland Press Herald reported.

The number of unenrolled voters in the state declined to 339,782. There were more than 367,000 unenrolled voters in the state in 2014, after which the figure began to decline.

The secretary of states office compiled the data after the July 14 primary. Maine is headed into a very competitive general election cycle in which the states electoral votes, a U.S. Senate race and a U.S. House of Representatives race are all under close watch.

Jim Melcher, political science professor at the University of Maine Farmington, credits the boost to the recent primaries since March. He mentions that the gains may simply be an artifact of primary voters who wanted to participate. Maine does not allow unenrolled voters to vote in primary elections.

Republicans also saw some gains since March, largely fueled by the July primaries in the 2nd Congressional District.

Past Jumps In Party Affiliations

The bump in Democratic affiliation following Bidens inauguration mirrors that of former President Barack Obamas first term, Jones said.

That was really the high point that weve seen; kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party, he said.;Our data on this only goes back to the 90s, but its pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side.

Republican advantages, though rarer and more short-lived, followed the Gulf War in 1991 when George H.W. Bush was in office and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bushs term, according to Gallup. More people also reported GOP affiliation after the 1994, 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.

Whether the Republican Party can regain advantage during the 2022 midterm elections may rely on the successes of the Biden administration, according to Jones.

A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats, Jones said.;But if things start to get worse unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse; then his approval is going to go down. Its going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year.

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The Numbers Bear Out The Dominance Of The Democrats

According to gallup.com about 42% of voters claim to be independents. Nationally, the democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million. Many other republicans, as noted, lean in either the conservative or highly religious direction. Overall, targetsmart found that 42.6 percent of the new voters registered this year lean democratic, and only 29 percent lean republican . There are about twice as many registered democrats living in passaic county than republicans. The counties with the 10 highest percentages of democratic party, republican party, and no party preference registered voters are: the percentage of voters registered with the republican party decreased from 27.1% to 24.0%. 4,600 fewer republicans after the riot. In the week from jan. Currently, republicans have 51 seats, and democrats have 47 with two races still undecided. The biggest spikes in republicans leaving the party came in the days after jan. Their partisan affiliation was roughly split between three groups: Gallup.com says 31% of voters are democrats.

More Democrats Than Republicans Went To Polls In Maine

Nearly 42,000 more Democrats cast ballots in November than did Republicans roughly three times the gaps seen in 2010 and 2014 according to an analysis of state voting data by The Associated Press.

That could prove worrisome for Republicans in Maine and especially for GOP Sen. Susan Collins if, as expected, she chooses to seek re-election in 2020, said University of New England political science professor Brian Duff. Both sides are gearing up for a costly race.

I think its going to be an incredibly tricky year for her, especially if the Democrats find a strong candidate, Duff said.

Maines partisan breakdown remained roughly the same between 2010 and 2018: A third of registered voters are Democrats, while 27 percent are Republican. The rest are independents or Greens.

But in 2018, more of those Democrats headed to the polls than have in recent midterm elections. Roughly 70 percent of registered Democratic voters cast ballots in November, up from 61 percent in 2010.

Republicans also saw 70 percent turnout, but thats been more typical for the party in recent elections. In 2010, 68 percent voted. Independent voter turnout was also up, from 45 percent in 2010 to 51 percent last year.

The figures in Maine reflect what happened nationally in 2018: Turnout, driven by both support for and opposition to Trump, was unusually high for a midterm election.

Several voters said Mainers are just sick of combativeness in politics.

Recommended Reading: Democrat Standings

Immigration Policy Is About A Lot More Than Just Border Enforcement Or Ice Raids

Glancing at the graph above, it looks like the number of unaffiliated might even be higher than the number of democrats by the 2020 election (the triangle markers along the top edge of the graph denote the. For decades, the word conservative have been synonymous with orange county. Orange county, long a republican stronghold, has officially turned blue. Short answer, more democrats than republicans, but the largest group, by wide margins, is neither. The county that nurtured ronald reagans conservatism and is the resting place of richard nixon is now home to 547,458 registered democrats, compared with 547,369 republicans.

A Group Of Friends And A Few Acquaintances Were Having A Politic Many Of You Guys Can Add It Up In One Minute So Please Tell Me:

Eric rauchway, professor of american history at the university of democrats seized upon a way of ingratiating themselves to western voters: There were nine new senators and a minimum of 89 new representatives , as well as one new delegate at the start of its first session. During this time, african americans were largely disenfranchised. Get more help from chegg. The us political parties, now called democrats and republicans, switched platform planks, ideologies, and members many although what happened is complex, in many cases there was no clean sudden shift, and some voter bases and factions never switched, you can see evidence of the. How many new democrats are there? Voter registration is the requirement that a person eligible to vote registers on an electoral roll before that person is entitled or permitted to vote. Voter registration and participation are crucial for the nations democracy to function properly and for the us government to provide fair representation. Republicans who worked with democrats were traitors in the war for seats in congress. Ive seen a lot where it says theyre a registered democrat . A group of friends and a few acquaintances were having a politic many of you guys can add it up in one minute, so please tell me: Republicans and democrats after the civil war. In the others, such as virginia, voters register without.

Read Also: When Did The Democrats And Republicans Switch

Will The Loneliest Republicans Vote For Trump

So far, Mr. Trump has tended to fare well in districts with few Republicans. But many such districts have not yet voted.

New Yorkâs 15th District is notable for its above-average black population and its many Puerto Ricans and Dominicans. Just 3 percent of adult citizens in the district are non-Hispanic white the lowest percentage in the country. Outside of a few Cuban districts in South Florida, there probably isnt anywhere else in the country where nonwhite and Hispanic voters will represent such a large share of the Republican primary electorate.

Mr. Trump could do well with Hispanic voters in the district. He carried every one of the 11 wards in Chicago where Hispanics represented a majority of the population. In the most heavily Hispanic ward the 22nd on the West Side, where 93 percent of the population is Hispanic Mr. Trump won 42 percent of the vote.

The white voters in New Yorks 15th do seem likely to back Mr. Trump. More than 24 percent of white adults in the district dont have a high school education, according to the American Community Survey. Startlingly, 21 percent identify their ancestry as American, the second-highest share in the country after eastern Kentucky, and far and away the highest outside the South. Mr. Trump has won just about everywhere that white voters have such low levels of educational attainment but white voters have represented the majority of the electorate in all of those places.

Additional work by Jeremy White.

Chart 1 And Table : Nationwide Party Registration Trends Since 2000

Republicans on track to keep U.S. Senate majority

Since 2000, the nationwide proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters in party registration states have both gone down, while the percentage of registered independents has steadily grown. The latter has nearly reached the nationwide percentage of registered Republicans, which has long been second nationally to the Democrats. Altogether, the combined number of registered Democrats and Republicans, which was 77% in October 2000, is now down to 69%, while the proportion of registered independents over the same period has increased from 22% to 28%.

Note: Based on active registered voters in states where the number of active and inactive registrants is listed. In the election-eve 2000, 2008, and 2016 entries, Independents include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into a particular category. Percentages do not add to 100 since the small percentage of registered third party voters is not included.

Richard Wingers monthly newsletter, Ballot Access News, for election-eve party registration numbers in 2000, 2008, and 2016; the websites of state election offices for July 2018.

Recommended Reading: Why Do Republicans Lie About Everything

More To The Story In Maine 2020

The coronavirus pandemic and its devastating economic fallout are two major issues that have an impact on the election. NBC News is tracking and updating daily the number of coronavirus related deaths in each state and U.S. territory, as well as the jobless claims as reported weekly by the Department of Labor that counts how many people have filed for unemployment benefits.

How The Primary Works

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political partyâs candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Illinois uses an open primary system. Voters do not have to register with a party, but they do have to choose, publicly, which partyâs ballot they will vote on at the primary election.

Also Check: Which Republicans Voted Against The Tax Bill

Poring Over Party Registration

This is not the best of times for the Democratic Party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a clear minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession. Yet the Democrats approach this falls midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process their strength in states where voters register by party.

Altogether, there are 31 states with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. Among the party registration states are some of the nations most populous: California, New York, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts.

The basic facts: In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million.

Still, Republican Donald Trump found a route to victory in 2016 that went through the party registration states. He scored a near sweep of those where there were more Republicans than Democrats, winning 11 of the 12, while also taking six of the 19 states where there were more Democrats than Republicans a group that included the pivotal battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Since Democrats And Republicans Appear To Have An Inexhaustible Appetite For Political Friction In The United States The Words Democrat And Republican Are Widely Used To Mean The Two Major Lets Take A Closer Look At Where These Two Words Came From And How They Came To Be Used In The

Altogether, there are 31 states with party registration; Eric rauchway, professor of american history at the university of democrats seized upon a way of ingratiating themselves to western voters: How many wars were initiated by democrats since the beginning of the usa? Republicans were able to fend off challenges from democrats trying to flip control of state legislatures in key states. Results seemed to follow what was set out by prediction polls, with the democrats seizing control of the house of representatives and the republicans maintaining the majority in the senate. Republicans who worked with democrats were traitors in the war for seats in congress. Since democrats and republicans appear to have an inexhaustible appetite for political friction in the united states, the words democrat and republican are widely used to mean the two major lets take a closer look at where these two words came from and how they came to be used in the. Republicans opinions carry less weight. How many democrats, republicans, and independents are registered? Voter registration and participation are crucial for the nations democracy to function properly and for the us government to provide fair representation. So, perhaps i should start with a story. Democrats did see a boost in 2008 when former president obama was elected, hitting a peak of 43.62 percent of registered voters. Democratic supporters accounted for 35% of the electorate.

Read Also: Did The Democrats And Republicans Switch

Flood Of Absentee Ballots Could Delay Primary Election Results

One possibility here is that people here feel that registering for the Democratic Party is more likely to deliver, either a particular outcome that they want, or a particular degree of insult, Schmidt said.

He said David Truman, a political scientist from the 1950s and 1960s, coined the term disturbance theory to describe the type of voter reaction that seems to be occurring now. He said most Americans dont pay long-standing attention to politics they react to things that disturb them, Schmidt said. And we could be seeing voters who are disturbed, maybe by the president, maybe by racism maybe by everything that is 2020 and theyve made the resolution that the best way to resolve everything is within the Democratic Party itself.

Maines latest registration data also does not align with the most recent biweekly poll on U.S. party affiliation done by Gallup, a global analytics and polling company. Gallups May 28 to June 4 survey of U.S. voters found that 31 percent of U.S. voters considered themselves Democrats, 25 percent Republican and 40 percent independent.

Affiliation breakdown in Maine usually mirrors national numbers fairly closely, so the dramatic shift to the left over a relatively short period, coupled with a steady longer-term decline in unenrolled voters, is probably good news for Democrats, said Michael Franz, a government professor at Bowdoin College, who also studies political campaigns and campaign financing.

Polling Data Shows Republican Party Affiliation Is Down As Independents Leaning Toward The Democratic Party Surge

Democrats have a nine-percentage-point affiliation advantage over Republicans at the moment.

Resize icon

The GOP is losing its grip, according to the latest Gallup poll.;

The number of Americans identifying as Republicans or as independents who lean toward the GOP dropped to 40% in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the number of Democrats or independents leaning toward the Democratic party hitting 49%. And that nine-percentage-point lead is the greatest Democratic advantage that Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012, when former President Barack Obama was re-elected.;

Gallup routinely measures U.S. adults party identification and the political leanings of independents. The latest poll surveyed a random sample of 3,960 U.S. adults by phone between January and March of 2021. And while Democratic Party affiliation actually dropped by one point from the fourth quarter of 2020, to 30% where it has hovered for most of the past eight years the number of Americans identifying as independent rose to 44% from 38% last quarter. And this growing number of independents came at the expense of the Republican party, as 19% of independents said they lean Democrat, compared with 15% leaning Republican. Most of the remaining 11% of independents didnt swing either way.;

And several events have happened during those three months that could position the Democratic Party more favorably in voters eyes, the Gallup report noted.;

Read more:

Opinion:

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[patriotsnet]

How Many Registered Republicans In Alabama

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How Many Registered Republicans In Alabama

Most Democratic And Republicancounties In Alabama

In Battleground States, Newly Registered Democrats Are Outnumbering Newly Registered Republicans

Which Alabama counties have the most Democrats and which has the most Republicans?

It turns out even the Reddest of Red states has a drop of Blue.

24/7 Wall Street;recently used voting data and a review of current and historical representation in Congress to determine the political leanings counties across the country. That index was then used to determine the most Democratic – and most Republican – counties in each state.

Alabama is a solid Republican state but the analysis found pockets of Democratic support. For example, in 2012, 61 percent of Alabama voters opted for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, one of the highest shares the losing candidate received from any state. In Greene County, however, 85 percent of the voters cast their ballot for President Obama. What’s more, Greene County helped send a Democrat to the U.S. House of Representatives in each of the last five Congressional elections.

That’s enough to make Greene County the most Democratic county in Alabama.

And what about the most Republican County? There is a lot of competition for that title but the recognition goes to Blount county, according to;24/7 Wall Street. In 2012, more than 86 percent of voters cast their ballot for GOP nominee Romney, the highest share of any county in Alabama. Also, county residents are represented in the House by the 4th and 6th Congressional Districts, both of which are held by Republicans.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Wake Up Call. Let’s see what’s going on:

How Many Democrats How Many Republicans

I want to follow up on my last post regarding how variations in poll results are often due to differences in how pollsters construct their samples. The previous post talked primarily about whether pollsters were sampling likely or registered voters. Obama, I suggested, polled better among registered voters. ;Today I want to look at another decision pollsters must make: whether to weight their sample by party identification and, if so, what weights to use. We know that whether one considers oneself a Democrat or a Republican is the biggest single determinant of how someone will vote. Not surprisingly, people tend to vote for the candidate who shares their party identification. So a poll that includes 40% Democrats in its sample is likely to have more favorable results for Obama than one that includes 35% Democrats, all other things being equal. Ditto for McCain and variations in the number of Republicans sampled.

To see how this makes a difference, consider two ;respected national polls that came out yesterday. CBS/NY Times came out with their monthly national poll that has Obama up 49-44, with 6 undecided.

Rasmussen, meanwhile, has the race tied, 48-48% in its latest tracking poll.

I show you these numbers to give you an idea of what it means to weight by party.; But why does it matter? Compare the CBS weighting to what Rasmussen calculates when they weight by party.

Are You Surrounded By Democrats Or Republicans How Jersey Breaks Red And Blue In All 21 Counties

Here is a county-by-county breakdown of which political party rules in each of New Jerseys 21 counties and how much each party gained since this time last year.

New Jersey is a Democratic-leaning state, and its getting bluer by the month.

Democrats have registered voters at a faster pace than Republicans in the Garden State. But the GOP still maintains pockets of control in some counties.

Republicans are outnumbered by registered Democrats by nearly 1 million people , according to the latest statistics from the states Division of Elections. As of the end of September, New Jersey had 2,307,937 registered Democrats and 1,331,102 Republicans.

Over the past year, Democrats added more than double the number of registered voters compared to the GOP , according to the data.

However, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in six of the states 21 counties, and there are a few other counties that are pretty evenly split. Also, Republicans out registered the number of new Democrats in six counties from this time last year, including in three counties where the number of Ds outweigh the Rs.

The largest number of New Jersey voters 2,378,040 to be exact have not formally claimed any party affiliation.

Twelve years ago, Democrats had a 290,000 vote plurality over registered Republicans statewide, said Ben Dworkin, director of Rowan Universitys Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship.

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Super Bowl Conservatives: Nfl Players Who Lean Right

While liberals might dominate the big screen, the sports world is another story. Unlike actors, almost every great quarterback favors Republicans.

Knowing how cozy last nights Superbowl quarterback Tom Brady is with President Donald Trump, you probably think Im talking about him.; After all, Brady has;publicly said;he and President Donald Trump have been friends for a long time , he has played golf with Trump many times, they have phoned each other many times, and he said in 2015 he hoped Trump would be elected president.

But Im NOT talking about Brady, not specifically. Im talking about the best quarterbacks in NFL history, an amazingly high percentage of whom are identifiably conservatives.

Who ranks among the Top 10 quarterbacks of all time?

Brady definitely does. So does Joe Montana, the best quarterback ever in the opinion of many experts until Brady and Peyton Manning came along. Brett Favre, who held most of the NFL career records before Manning broke them, is also considered among the top 10. So is Dan Marino, who held most of the career records before Favre broke them. You can also make a good argument for Fran Tarkenton, who held most of the career records before Marino broke them.

Ive just named nine of the approximately top 14 quarterbacks in NFL history. ALL of them are also openly Republican.

Future Political Leaders?

Listed alphabetically, the conservative quarterbacks are:

Joe Montana: Montana is a longtime GOP donor.

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Post Office Republicans And The Goldwater Landslide

Following the end of the populist era, Republicans effectively competed in even fewer isolated hill counties, mostly in north Alabama. While the Reconstruction period saw their strongest voting base in the black belt counties, Republicans also relied on many north Alabama counties that had never been strong proponents of the instutition of slavery. They garnered support from a coalition of small farmers, blacks, labor, prohibitionists, labor, etc. Again, these were often voters primarily from counties across the northern width of the state like Lawrence, Blount, Cullman, Walker, Winston, and DeKalb counties. Many of these counties elected Republicans to local office or occasionally to the state legislature even as late as the 1920s. However, only;Winston County;reliably elected Republicans to almost all offices as the county had attempted to succeed from Alabama during the Civil War and has always been considered ancestrally Republican. During this period the Republican Party relied heavily on federal patronage with federal appointments during Republican administration in Washington for such offices as local Postmasters.

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Republican Party In Alabama

Jeff Frederick, University of North Carolina at PembrokeCivil WarAlabamaReconstructionslavesUnionistsDemocraticWorld War IIWilliam Hugh SmithgovernorDavid P. LewisGuy HuntDon SiegelmanThe Republican Party EmergessecessionMontgomeryBenjamin TurnerSelmaJames T. RapierJeremiah HaralsonDallas CountywaterwayrailroadKu Klux KlanRobert LindsayBourbonsPost-Reconstruction Republican PartyGreenbackersPopulistscoalBlack BeltBirminghamagricultureReuben KolbThomas Goode Jonessegregation1901 state constitutionAlabama Republicans and Presidential PoliticsNew DealDixiecratGeorge WallaceParty Realignment and Republican AscendancyJames D. MartinLister Hillcivil rightscottonWinton BlountJeremiah DentonFob JamesRichard ShelbyLurleen WallaceBob Riley’sRoy MooreRobert BentleyShelby CountyAdditional Resources

Number Of Registered Voters By State 2021

Voter registration is the requirement that a person eligible to vote registers on an electoral roll before that person is entitled or permitted to vote. Voter registration may be automatic or may require each eligible person to submit an application. Registration varies between jurisdictions.

Almost 92 million eligible Americans did not vote in the 2016 presidential election. Voter registration and participation are crucial for the nations democracy to function properly and for the US government to provide fair representation.

Low voter registration numbers and low voter turnout can be the result of several factors. To increase voter registration and participation, barriers to registering to vote, and barriers to voting must be eliminated, such as additional restrictions on identification forms and reforms to ensure all eligible ballots will be securely counted. Additionally, those alienated from the democratic process or discouraged from voting must feel that their voice is heard by their leaders and encouraged to participate in elections.

Some pro-voter policies that have shown to increase voter registration and participation are:

Automatic voter registration.

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A Group Of Friends And A Few Acquaintances Were Having A Politic Many Of You Guys Can Add It Up In One Minute So Please Tell Me:

Eric rauchway, professor of american history at the university of democrats seized upon a way of ingratiating themselves to western voters: There were nine new senators and a minimum of 89 new representatives , as well as one new delegate at the start of its first session. During this time, african americans were largely disenfranchised. Get more help from chegg. The us political parties, now called democrats and republicans, switched platform planks, ideologies, and members many although what happened is complex, in many cases there was no clean sudden shift, and some voter bases and factions never switched, you can see evidence of the. How many new democrats are there? Voter registration is the requirement that a person eligible to vote registers on an electoral roll before that person is entitled or permitted to vote. Voter registration and participation are crucial for the nations democracy to function properly and for the us government to provide fair representation. Republicans who worked with democrats were traitors in the war for seats in congress. Ive seen a lot where it says theyre a registered democrat . A group of friends and a few acquaintances were having a politic many of you guys can add it up in one minute, so please tell me: Republicans and democrats after the civil war. In the others, such as virginia, voters register without.

Alabama Republicans And The Populists

Are Alabama Voters Set On Roy Moore? | The View

By the late 1890s, a coalition between the Populist Party and the Republican Party often produced “fusion tickets”, that combined forces in several subsequent elections to win control of several of Alabama hill counties in this era. They were most dominant in Marshall, St. Clair, Shelby, and Chilton Counties. Between 1892 and 1932 Shelby County was usually closely contested under the leadership of A. P. Longshore. Marshall County elected Republican Thomas Kennamer in 1896 to the Alabama House of Representatives. DeKalb County voted in 1896 for GOP Presidential candidate William McKinley. Chilton County was decidedly Republican between 1900â1912, including electing Lewis W. Reynolds as a Republican Probate Judge in 1904 and again in 1916. S. J. Petree was elected as a Republican Probate Judge in Franklin County in 1910; C. C. Scheuing was elected Cullman County Sheriff in 1910; J. B. Sloan was elected as a Republican to the State Senate from a district made up of Blount, Cullman, and Winston Counties. In 1910, J. J. Curtis of Winston County became the first Republican Circuit Judge in Alabama since Reconstruction.

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Registration Surges Follow The Campaign Calendar

The election calendar also influences party registration trends, as key dates and campaign events drive interest in participation. For instance, a presidential primary or the registration deadline ahead of the general election can spark a flood of registrations. But sometimes this can create a disproportionate number of registrations from one party.

Consider the 2020 presidential primary. Democrats had a competitive race, which drove interest in voting in 2019 and early in 2020 among Democrats and voters who wanted to have a say in the partys nomination contest. Meanwhile, Trump was practically unopposed in the GOP nomination contest, so there wasnt the same motivation among Republican-leaning voters to register ahead of the primaries in the spring until we got closer to the general election.

Illinois: Error Registered A Possible 545 Noncitizen Voters

CHICAGO An error in Illinois new automatic voter registration system led to a possible 545 non-U.S. citizens being registered to vote, 15 of whom cast ballots, state officials publicly acknowledged this week.

Illinois Secretary of State Jesse Whites office, which oversees drivers licenses, said the data of 574 people who self-identified as non-citizens was erroneously forwarded to elections officials to be registered to vote. Election officials confirmed Tuesday that 545 of them were ultimately registered.

It was a computer error, White spokesman Dave Druker said Tuesday. We moved to correct it and contacted people involved.

As Illinois Republicans called for an immediate hearing over a serious breach of voter protections, election officials worked to determine how many of the registrations were indeed invalid. Over 150 registrations had been canceled, said State Board of Elections spokesman Matt Dietrich.

Dietrich said it was possible some people indicated that they werent citizens by mistake. When Illinois residents get standard drivers licenses, they have to confirm they meet the criteria to vote, certifying they are 18 and a U.S. citizen. Only those who meet the criteria are supposed to be sent to election officials for registration.

The 15 people cast 19 ballots in elections in 2018 and 2019.

It was not immediately unclear what would happen to the individuals.

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Party Registration Is Often A Lagging Indicator

A voters party registration is a strong indicator of who theyll support, but its not a guarantee. In fact, many voters registered with one party have actually been voting for the other party in recent elections but havent necessarily switched their registration to reflect the party they actually support.

Take Pennsylvania, for example. The once-Democratic southwestern part has shifted sharply toward the GOP over the past couple of decades. However, party registration figures havent necessarily reflected that movement as much as you might expect. For instance, Greene County along the West Virginia border voted for Trump by 40 percentage points in 2016, yet preelection registration figures1 show that party identification is split almost evenly, with registered Republicans and Democrats each making up 45 percent of the countys voters.

Part of whats going on is that many older voters in that region are still registered as Democrats, even if they back Republicans for most federal offices. Conversely, the suburban counties around Philadelphia in the eastern part of the state used to form the base of the state Republican Party, but even though that area has moved toward the Democrats in recent elections, some Democratic-leaning voters havent changed their party registration. In other words, big shifts in party registration sometimes tell us something we already know, and arent a signal of a new shift in attitudes.

Polling Data Shows Republican Party Affiliation Is Down As Independents Leaning Toward The Democratic Party Surge

Democrats have a nine-percentage-point affiliation advantage over Republicans at the moment.

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The GOP is losing its grip, according to the latest Gallup poll.;

The number of Americans identifying as Republicans or as independents who lean toward the GOP dropped to 40% in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the number of Democrats or independents leaning toward the Democratic party hitting 49%. And that nine-percentage-point lead is the greatest Democratic advantage that Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012, when former President Barack Obama was re-elected.;

Gallup routinely measures U.S. adults party identification and the political leanings of independents. The latest poll surveyed a random sample of 3,960 U.S. adults by phone between January and March of 2021. And while Democratic Party affiliation actually dropped by one point from the fourth quarter of 2020, to 30% where it has hovered for most of the past eight years the number of Americans identifying as independent rose to 44% from 38% last quarter. And this growing number of independents came at the expense of the Republican party, as 19% of independents said they lean Democrat, compared with 15% leaning Republican. Most of the remaining 11% of independents didnt swing either way.;

And several events have happened during those three months that could position the Democratic Party more favorably in voters eyes, the Gallup report noted.;

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Number Of Registered Voters In Illinois Exceeds 8 Million

Something about the 2016 election is striking a cord with the populace to make sure that theyre registered, said Ken Menzel, general counsel for the Illinois State Board of Elections.

With less than two weeks until Election Day, more Illinoisans are registered to vote since record keeping began in 1970.

Past Jumps In Party Affiliations

The bump in Democratic affiliation following Bidens inauguration mirrors that of former President Barack Obamas first term, Jones said.

That was really the high point that weve seen; kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party, he said.;Our data on this only goes back to the 90s, but its pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side.

Republican advantages, though rarer and more short-lived, followed the Gulf War in 1991 when George H.W. Bush was in office and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bushs term, according to Gallup. More people also reported GOP affiliation after the 1994, 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.

Whether the Republican Party can regain advantage during the 2022 midterm elections may rely on the successes of the Biden administration, according to Jones.

A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats, Jones said.;But if things start to get worse unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse; then his approval is going to go down. Its going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year.

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