#i have to pick between continuing my current 18 month long course (10 months remaining) OR opt for a way easier diploma
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tragic!!! the most caring lovable funniest sexiest and most lovable person you know in the world is struggling and TRAPPED in the shackles of academia!! the people around them are telling them that if they dont make an immediate decision about what their life is gonna look like in the next 5 years a bom b is gonna go off and kill everyone
#that person is yours truly of course#im struggling up in this bitch so bad for the love of god somebody save my from courseworks and exams#my mental health is on the decline and the work thats being given to me is constantly piling up i might not make it lads#god why is everything so bad#not to be dramatic but am i cooked guys is this over for me am i doomed#i hate academia so much despite being smart#like in the grand scheme of things I KNOW this is such a small matter like legit its not that serious but oh my hoddd#i have to pick between continuing my current 18 month long course (10 months remaining) OR opt for a way easier diploma#thats gonna take three years and gonna give me less job qualifications#i hate that i have to pay for my education with my mental health aside from actually money cries#its okay i will le sigh and cringe this on#im so normal everything is so fine 🙏 god bless
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mind is just as frail as it's frame, you know i'd leave it alone
billie dean howard x reader
summary: you're fighting a losing game with your disorder, let's hope it's not too late when your ex-girlfriend shows up in your apartment.
warnings: eating disorders (bulimia), depression, sad ending
word count: 1730
a/n: this is basically a vent i dumped into my notes app in one sitting after not being inspired to write for way too long, so, pls don't judge too harshly and pls DONT READ THIS IF IT COULD TRIGGER YOU
gif credits to @mildredratchds
You had fallen into the dark, deep blue again. Time and time again you fell and you fought your way out, you fell and you picked yourself up again. Not this time though, you were drowning and there was nothing you could do to get back to air. You were trapped in this pool of misery as if it was locked on the surface, and there was no way you were getting out of it by yourself.
The last time it got this bad you had Billie, sweet, sweet Billie, who would've sacrificed her life to help you in any shape or form, but she was gone. Her departure left a cavity in your heart, yet you couldn't be mad at her. She had tried. But you locked her out when you needed her the most. There really was no one else to blame for the decaying of your heart, but you.
Nothing particularly bad happened that would've caused you to spiral this extremely, it was simply the fact that everything was bad, everything is bad, and everything would always be bad. In reality, your problems weren't getting worse, but the continuous strain of having to deal with the same troubles every single day was eating away at your resistance. You could feel the energy and willpower to keep going creeping out of your body, leaving you with the empty shell of who you used to be.
You hadn't talked to Billie in months, after repeated tries to break down your walls and being pushed away every single time, she gave up. You did it, you pushed away the one person who truly cared for you. Your mind was clouded by self-hatred and anguish, it was as if your eyes were shielded by a grey layer, making it impossible for the world to look anything but cold and loveless.
There was not a single thing that could spark up the joyous flame inside you. Nothing was even remotely good anymore. Nothing.
You were here, but at the same time, you weren't. As if you had taken a step back from reality. The feeling of not being real blurring the lines between good and bad. At certain moments the light inside you would flicker, pulling you back and guiding you to the right thing. But it was only a flicker. It was weak and it was temporary. The disordered desire to completely destroy yourself was starting to consume you.
Everything was blurry, the line between good and bad, the one between acceptable and inappropriate and most dangerously the one between you and your illness.
Were these your authentic thoughts or were they caused by a disorder?, was a question you often asked yourself, but never actually answered.
You had long reached past the point of not caring, now you wanted it, actively wanted absolute destruction. You resumed all your old unhealthy coping mechanisms and made no effort to stop your current ones.
Who would really care if you died? no one, at least that's what you made yourself believe.
Total isolation from friends and family was necessary so you could spend all your time focusing on your eating disorder.
Instead of spending your nights in the arms of the woman you loved, you spent them hunched over the toilet, hurling your guts out.
You felt weak and disgusting at all times, nothing about what you were doing was anywhere near glamorous. Well... except if anyone finds choking on your own vomit or all kinds of gross digestive issues glamorous.
You couldn't recognize the girl starring back at you in the mirror, who the hell even was this red-eyed girl? Her puffy cheeks stood out to you immediately. Snot, vomit, and bile were running down her face, probably picking at her skin. And her eyes... well, except for tears and popped blood vessels there was nothing in them. Not a single glimpse of happiness or remains of a person.
It was a heartbreaking sight that left you cold.
Dizzily you walked to your bed, too tired to do anything. The tiny remains of energy you had left you with the content of your stomach.
It was 5 in the evening and you were laying in bed, staring at the spinning ceiling, until your eyes fell shut.
Your friends had contacted Billie, she was the only one who used to be able to help you at least a little bit. She was there for you, always, and she never judged. She stood by you in your darkest times, supportively holding your hand and not letting go even when the going got tough. You were constantly terrified of dragging her down with you, the last thing you wanted was to rob the world of her angelic presence.
She would hold you close when you were down, which was admittedly most days. She would clean your apartment and do your laundry, things you didn't feel like you could do in the state you were in.
She loved you and you loved her.
Of course, you returned the favors, you were there for her as well, but you knew it was different. It was a bigger challenge being with someone so deeply intertwined with their illness, but she still did it.
She was your everything, and you had lost her.
Not only was she your light in this pitch-black hole others called life, but she was also your soulmate. The one you laughed with most. The one who got you, everything about you. You shared a myriad of beautiful moments that outshined any bad time for her. She wanted to marry you one day, of course, you didn't know that until you kicked her out of your apartment and discovered a red, velvet box weeks later when you finally cleaned out her drawer.
You were moody, irritable, impulsive, and horribly depressed. It seemed as if your actions didn't have consequences, life was a game of numbers. Calories in. Calories out. Nothing else mattered.
You felt no remorse when things ended with Billie. The realization only really hit you when you found the 18 carat Tiffany diamond.
For a second your eyes opened wide and your lips curled into a smile, despite having ruined the surprise proposal. Then, boom, it hit you and your heart crumbled. There was no surprise to ruin, anymore. You two were done. She didn't need you, she had moved on, appearing with a new side-piece on the covers of tabloids weekly.
Why would you even care though? You ended things. you could hear a painful laugh erupting from you, you didn't need her, you didn't need anyone, not when you had your innermost nervosa.
Eyes wide and dead, smile big and stiff, you looked horrifying. But what did it matter? Sanity was a hoax anyways.
When your friends called Billie she dropped everything for you, like she always had and always would. The second she heard how you were behaving, her heart rate went sky high. It was happening again, and this time, she wasn't there to throw you a lifejacket, this time, you were drowning on your own.
It was 6 in the evening, and you were laying in your bed, facing the now still-standing ceiling.
Billie chuckled to herself as she used the spare key you hid in your not-so-secret-secret hiding spot to open your front door. The apartment was just how you had left it.
After you had practically inhaled the kitchen until you were painfully full and then, of course, ritualistically aggressively forced your hand down your throat to un-do what just happened. That's what appealed to you about bulimia. The control. Life didn't have an undo button, so you had to create one for yourself. You cheated in the dirtiest games of them all and your pride overthrew every bit of rationality that was left. Not once did the thought "I shouldn't be doing this" enter your mind, this was after all normal to you, blurry, but normal.
It doesn't work that way though, you can't undo anything or cheat your way through life just because you're unable to give up control. And a part of you knew that, a part of you wanted to listen to what your therapist had told you. She was right, you could drop dead at any second, the chances of having a sudden heart attack rising after every heave.
The smell of vomit invaded the medium's nose when the door creaked open, and her heart sunk. She wanted so badly to help you through this, stand by you, and overcome this with you, but you wouldn't let her. You made it impossible for her to be apart of your life. She had no energy to keep up the fight and so she left, like you wanted her to, like you said you wanted her to.
She called out your name. no response. you must be asleep somewhere, she thought. Your ex-girlfriend made her way through the food packages and dirty dishes on the floor to the bathroom, it wouldn't be the first time she'd find you passed out on the cold ceramic tiles. She flushed the toilet and wiped down the blood and vomit-covered toilet seat before stopping in the doorway to collect herself. Fiddling with her pearl necklace before taking a deep breath, she left the bathroom.
It was 6:10 in the evening when Billie switched off the light in the bathroom and headed to the kitchen, her red pumps echoing through your deadly silent apartment. She stopped in her tracks and seriously considered cleaning for a second, like she used to do for you when you were dating.
She missed you, a lot. She missed seeing the relief on your face when you entered your freshly cleaned kitchen after beating yourself up for nights for not being able to just. Do. IT. She missed the way your eyes sparkled when you looked at her, she missed your bear-hugs and cuddles, she missed everything about you. Billie shook her head, cleaning could wait, she needed to talk to you.
It was 10 past 6 in the evening and you were laying in your bed, which was how Billie found you a few seconds later.
Because everything was just how you had left it. Dirty dishes on the floor. Lights on. Vomit in the toilet. A lifeless body facing the ceiling.
#time of death - 6:10pm#billie dean howard x reader#sarah paulson x reader#american horror story#tw eating disorder#billie dean x reader#billie dean howard imagine#sarah paulson fanfic#ahs apocalypse#ahs murder house#ahs hotel#ahs imagine#anorexia#bulimia#eating disorder#death#sad#angst#ahsfx#sarah paulson#ahs fanfiction#cordelia goode x reader#sally mckenna x reader#wilhemina venable x reader#depression#mental illness#eating disorder awareness#lesbian imagine#wlw#ednos
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Plastic Heart - Part 21
Namjoon x Reader Author: Admin Mo Summary: When you get the highly-anticipated BTS dolls for Christmas, your life takes a turn in a way you never could have expected. Note: Hey, so I know it’s been like a literal YEAR since I’ve worked on this, but I wanted to give you guys some more content and wrap up the story. This may or may not be the last I write of this. I’m not sure, but I was kind of winding down to the end of this when I was still actively working on it anyway. Keep your eyes peeled for the Epilogue. Warnings: None? Word Count: 2k
Prologue, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21
A few months passed and your birthday was rapidly approaching. Namjoon was in a panic. He didn’t know what to get you. He’d get you BTS’ new album, but you already had it. He couldn’t get you the BTS Funko Pops because then, you’d just have more living toys running around your already-chaotic apartment.
Jin, currently, was in the kitchen baking a cake. He’d become human a few nights before, and just in time to learn how to make cake before your birthday. So, he was practicing. At the moment, he was putting a crumb coat on a lemon cake, as he’d learned from the internet.
“Jin, I don’t know what to get her.” Namjoon said, pacing around the kitchen. “She’s everything to me and I don’t even know what to get her for her birthday.”
“She will love whatever you get her, I promise. She loves you to pieces, Joon. It’s your first time celebrating ANY birthday, let alone hers.”
Namjoon took a breath, nodding. “Yeah, you’re probably right.”
“He IS right.” Yoongi piped up from his seat in the other room. “You’re overthinking it. Just go to the store and pick out something she’d like. A new sweatshirt or some movies or something. She’s not picky.”
“Or!” Hoseok ran into the kitchen, followed by Jimin. They were still only a foot tall each, but they were looking to change that as soon as possible. The remaining four had agreed to turn one by one, though, as not to overwhelm you with new human roommates. Plus, you were still looking for a bigger apartment to house everyone in. Your cozy little one bedroom was already too small for the four human inhabitants you had so far.
“You could make her something! You know, something from the heart!” Hoseok continued.
Jimin nodded. “I know she’d appreciate that.”
“That’s a good idea…” Namjoon thought, rubbing his chin. “I don’t think I have the skill to make anything, though…”
He was going to continue, but there was a knock on the door. Namjoon walked to answer it. When he pulled it open, Melody was waiting there, holding a reusable shopping bag full of champagne bottles.
“Oh, hey Melody, come on in.”
“I’ll be quick. I just have drinks for the party tomorrow. Figured I’d drop them off because I’m gonna be a bit late.”
“Yeah, of course. You can just set them on the counter.” Namjoon pointed back towards the kitchen, where Jin was still diligently working.
Melody stopped at the sight of him, staring for a long time. Namjoon chuckled a little at her reaction. You had mentioned Melody was a Jin fangirl.
“H-hi. Have we met?” Melody asked, brushing a piece of hair out of her face.
Jin looked up at her with wide eyes. “Um, no, not yet.” It was technically a lie. He vividly remembered the night when she, Ella, and Luna had slept over and he’d been in Melody’s perfect hands all night. “My name is Jin.”
Melody was stuck, staring at him with stars in her eyes. So distracted by his handsome face that she didn’t even notice Hoseok and Jimin quietly sneak back to your bedroom. “I’m Melody.”
Seizing the moment, Jin stepped forward and took Melody’s hand in his, kissing the back of it. “Nice to meet you.”
“Likewise.” She stared for another long quiet patch, her cheeks bright red, before he finally remembered her task. She set the champagne on the counter, giggling through her embarrassment and the butterflies fluttering around in her stomach. “Um, well, I’ve gotta go, uh, do homework. See you guys later!”
She rushed out the front door, positive if she spent one more second with Mr. Handsome, she’d explode.
“Smooth.” Yoongi noted, saluting Jin. “Well done. And nice fake name, by the way. Aren’t we supposed to be throwing people off our scent?”
“It just slipped out!” Jin retorted. “She’s...beautiful.”
“Can we focus here? The party’s tomorrow, and I still don’t know-”
“Tell you what, let’s go out shopping right now and pick out something for your girlfriend. I’ll help. I think I have excellent judgement.” Yoongi stood up from his chair and slipped on his hat and mask.
“Good idea.” Namjoon nodded. He checked his phone real quick before slipping it into his pocket. “Thank you.”
“Of course.” Yoongi nodded. “Jin, don’t burn the place down while we’re gone.”
Jin laughed. “No promises.”
***
You got home about an hour later. Namjoon and Yoongi were still out. You stopped at the mailbox outside and brought in the one thing inside it: a single envelope that said it was from your Aunt Matilda. She was your favorite aunt, the one who had inadvertently sent you on this whole journey to begin with. If it wasn’t for her, you wouldn’t have your amazing boyfriend at all.
You sat down on the couch to open it, but were interrupted by a stubby little arm poking at your ankle. You reached down and lifted Koya onto your lap, petting his little head.
“How was your day today, Koya? Did your uncles take good care of you?”
“Of course we did, (Y/N),” said Tae. “We’re the best uncles ever.”
“Indeed you are. How silly of me.” You chuckled. “Do you know where Namjoon is?”
“He and Yoongi went out.” Tae answered, climbing up onto the couch. “To do some ~secret shopping~...”
“Oooh, secret shopping, huh?” You raised an eyebrow, chuckling as Koya got comfortable, already asleep on your leg. “Sounds interesting.”
You opened the envelope and pulled out not only a note written in your aunt’s gorgeous cursive handwriting, but also a necklace. It had a black chord, a blue crystal dangling from the pendant on it. You admired it for a moment before putting it on, and then you unfolded the note to read it.
“My dear (Y/N),
Happy Birthday! I am so proud of you. You’ve grown into such a beautiful young woman. You are more powerful than you know. I see so much of myself in you and I’m beyond proud to call you my niece.
The necklace I enclosed was one I owned when I was your age. It served me well, and I hope it will serve you also.
I see so much greatness in your future. I hope you have fun on your next trip around the sun.
Blessed be,
Aunt Matilda”
She was cryptic, but she always had been. You smiled and folded the note, letting your fingers drift to the necklace hanging around your neck. Maybe you were going crazy, but you swore you felt it vibrating faintly.
While you were thinking about it, though, you heard a key in the door, and it opened, revealing your beautiful boyfriend and Yoongi, each of them holding a handful of bags.
“Aaah! Baby, close your eyes!” Namjoon said, and you laughed, lifting your hands to cover your eyes.
“They’re closed.”
“Okay, good. I’ll be right back. Stay put.” He said. You heard his voice as he walked past you. You heard him rummaging around a bit in the other room, and then he returned, his large hands gently removing yours from their spots in front of your face. When you could finally see him again, he was crouched down in front of you, the softest look in his eyes.
“What?”
“Nothing, I just missed you.” He replied, taking your face in both of his large hands and kissing your forehead gently.
You laughed. “It’s only been a few hours.”
“I know.” He motioned for you to get up, so you did, and he engulfed you in a hug, Koya cuddled between you. You snuggled deeper into his broad chest. Never did you think this would be your reality, but it was. You were dating the sweetest, kindest guy in the entire world, and the fact that he looked and sounded like your bias of seven years was just the icing on the cake. You couldn’t wait for your birthday and all of the birthdays after it, as long as you had Namjoon by your side.
***
The next night, all of your friends came over for your birthday party. Jin had made a beautiful cake, and there was plenty of pizza, pop, and alcohol to keep the good times rolling. Namjoon doted on your every want and need, making sure you were happy and well-cared for on every level.
“Namjoon, I am FINE. I don’t need anything else.”
“Okay. Just checking. It’s my girl’s big day after all.” He wrapped his arm around your shoulders and pulled you closer, kissing your forehead.
“Happy birthday!!!” Ella called, walking into the apartment with presents and a few bags of chips. “Let’s get this party started!!”
Yoongi set up a speaker and started playing the party playlist he’d put together, and you started dancing with the others, bopping around the kitchen. Hoseok, Jimin, Tae, and Jungkook were all in your bedroom with Koya, but you hoped they were having a good time, too.
It looked like Jin and Melody were hitting it off. You weren’t surprised. Melody had been a Jin stan since the dawn of time, so although your Jin didn’t look EXACTLY like Seokjin of BTS, he was as close as she was ever going to get, probably.
Namjoon watched you happily dancing and smiled to himself. So much had happened since he met you. He remembered a time not so long ago when he’d been a foot tall and made of plastic, hopelessly crushing on someone who didn’t even know he was alive. And then there was the fateful day where Taehyung sneezed and changed your whole lives. He’d been standing on your dresser, trying to calm you down. He’d been so tiny then, he reminisced, laughing softly. He had no idea what was in store for him, then, the giant world he was destined to join.
He wanted to be your boyfriend so bad that he’d manifested an entire new life for himself. One where you and him could FINALLY be together, and he couldn’t imagine things any other way.
“You okay?” You asked, gently tilting his face up towards you.
He was sitting in a chair, taking a little breather and staring at you with a familiar look on his face. “Of course I’m okay. Why?”
“You’ve got your thinky face on.” You laughed, moving his arm so you could sit in his lap.
His arms snaked around your waist and he rested his chin on your shoulder. “Just thinking is all.”
“About what?”
“You. It’s always you.” His deep voice murmured, his chest rumbling softly as he said it. “Happy birthday, baby.”
“Thank you.” You kissed the end of his nose and then his cheek, right on his perfect little dimple.
“Cake time!” Jin declared, lighting the candles. He was eager for people to try his baking.
You stood up from Joon’s lap and walked over to the lit cake. Joon followed, lacing his fingers through yours.
“Make a wish,” he whispered, squeezing your hand.
You mulled over it for a second and then you smiled, leaning forward to blow out the candles in one puff. As soon as the smoke started to rise, the necklace your aunt had given you glowed. You stared at it in shock, unsure of what it meant. It was then that the door to your bedroom opened, and a life size pink-haired Jungkook peeked out. He tentatively walked towards the kitchen, followed by Jimin, Tae, and Hoseok, all of them human.
“(Y/N)...” Ella asked, staring at them. “What the fuck did you wish for?”
“Noona, something weird happened.” Jungkook said, happy tears welling in his eyes. He pulled you in for a giant hug, which you gladly gave him.
“Yeah, you don’t say.” You giggled.
“I’m gonna be busy, aren’t I?” Luna laughed, shaking her head.
“I think we all are.” Yoongi added.
“What’s happening?” Melody asked.
Namjoon rubbed the back of his neck. “It’s a long story…”
Tagged: @coolcat494, @ffantasylandd, @feed-my-geek-soul, @ayoo-bangtan, @xxqueenwxtchxx, @cap-lu20, @finninpoposu, @coldbookworm, @sitkafay, @daniawinchesters21, @okaysoplshelpme, @zamirayinyue13, @douseeme16, @thetofuartist, @iie-wakarimasen, @lilgaga98, @catbugsugarpea, @demonic-meatball, @backtonormalthings, @kbowen9
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Three Simple Rules
Summary: Jim Hopper is a fan of three simple rules in all aspects of his life. Easy to follow. Uncomplicated. That is...until he decides to break rule #3, with his secretary, on his desk. Pairing: Jim Hopper x Female Reader Warning(s): Smut 18+, possessive Hopper, canon level cigarette smoking, implied age gap Word Count: 2,014 Beta Reader: The stunning and sexy @supersoldiersruined-me. Notes: This was my first request! I hope I did your wish justice, @fandomfic-galore. Request Message:
For the Jim fic I was thinking of something like he has a new PA and she gets caught doing something she shouldn’t. Something naughty and he wants to teach her a lesson in his office. Haha. After your exam of course.
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It’s 10:15 a.m. There’s not a clock in sight but you know it must be true. The squeal and slam of the Blazer’s door followed by the heavy crunch of gravel up to the police station door are as good as second and minute hands. Hopper isn’t much for reliability in other areas but he is reliably late to work.
“You know that is just so interesting.”
The extra flirty inflections on your words is unnecessary, truth be told, but it felt like a cherry on top. You’ve slung your torso over the young deputy’s desk in a way that’s far too inviting. Your shirt, usually quite office appropriate but currently unbuttoned an extra button, crept down just deep enough you could tell he had a good look down your front. Your pencil skirt rode up high enough you should move to adjust it but—
The door slams open as Jim Hopper enters the office. He’s mid-sentence, trying to brush off Flo’s chiding, when he greeted by a prime view of your ass propped up in front of him.
“Is Callahan bothering you, sweetheart?”
You can see his jaw tick and the tone of his voice is just above growl. Flo’s eyes flit back and forth between you and the chief.
“I’m so sorry, Hopper. These young ones nowadays. She’s still learning her duties.”
It’s true. You had only been hired as a secondary secretary at the Hawkin’s Police Department just about a month ago. In actuality, you were quite bright. You’d picked up on all the secretarial tasks rapidly. If anything, you were bored at your job. Which could possibly explain your current antics.
Jim eyes you up and down analyzing the scene before him. His eyes pause on the swell of your breasts visible and plump under the undone button, the extra length of silky exposed thigh from your tight skirt, and then back up to your blushing cheeks. His eyes narrow and his nostrils flare. Busted.
“That’s okay, Flo. I’ll have a word with her.” You and Florence begin to apologize in unison but it’s clear the topic isn’t up for discussion. Hopper places a large hand on your shoulder gently directing you to his office. “Let’s talk...alone.”
The last word had a deadly lilt to it. For a split second, you wonder if you’ve taken this whole thing too far. You don’t get to continue the thought as the heavy oak door of his office clicks closed. Hopper stalks over to the only window in his office and harshly tugs the blinds closed. It’s with an eerie grace, he sits down on the edge of his desk and lights a cigarette.
“Hopper, I…” The look he shoots you stops you in your tracks. “Jim, I’m sorry.”
He huffs a heavy cloud of smoke out from his lungs that would make a steam engine jealous. At the end of the exhale, his lips play into a sharp smirk as if he’s enjoying your discomfort. The two of you sit in the office in silence with only the clicking of his clock proving the time is passing. He stares you in the eye before beginning.
“Okay, so let me get this straight in my head…” The pause between his sentences is pregnant with anticipation. He takes a long drag from his smoke and continues, “You thought it was a brilliant idea to flirt with Phil Callahan.”
“I can explain.”
“That wasn’t a question.”
“You’re the one who—” His brows raise towards his hairline but you trudge on with as much conviction as you can muster. “You’re the one who started something he couldn’t finish this morning.”
He takes a third drag; groaning as he exhales. The smoke curls in tendrils around the coarse hair of his mustache before dissipating into the room. The sound shoots tingles straight between your thighs. He strides with a grace all too foreign on his large frame and sits in the chair behind his desk. Another guttural sound escapes his lips while he contemplates your sin. The smoke and emotionally charged atmosphere have turned the small office into an oppressive sauna.
“That’s fine. That’s just fine.” His tone indicates it’s anything but fine. “You’re a needy little one aren’t you? Was last night not enough for you?”
The temperature of your skin, near boiling in anticipation, deepens across your chest and cheeks under his accusation. Despite the shame and heat radiating off your skin another heat has settled at the apex of your thighs. Hopper had made the terms of your arrangement very clear. Three simple rules.
You were his and no one else's. He does not share.
This could end at any time. Attachment isn’t his thing.
Absolutely zero discussion of the arrangement or acting “familiar” at work, in town, or around anyone else.
Yet, here he wasn’t actively talking about the two of you, like that, at work. Sure, you were behind closed doors in his office but that seemed menial protection at best.
“I asked you a question, dammit.” His hand slams on the desk. He manages to keep the volume of his voice in check. “Last night wasn’t enough so you thought it was a good idea to come in here advertise yourself like some ten dollar hooker for Phil?”
He’s not being fair. You had certainly been looking for punishment but he’s hitting low blows. Your instincts wants to curse and spit; anything to fight back and defend yourself. Your body seems to have other thoughts. The timbre and power behind his voice have you soaked and your brain clouded.
“I just wanted…”
“What? What did you want that was so damn important?” You hang your head shamefully. His posture changes. “I see. You wanted to be punished.”
The booming chuckle stings. You know it’s mocking. His first cigarette is gone. He tamps down the last of the ashes in the tray in time with his laughter.
“Well since you know best, get on with it.”
Your face screws up in confusion. What was he asking? For you to beg? Ask forgiveness? He couldn’t possibly be giving you what you want so easily. He flicks his lighter open and ignites before leaning back in his desk chair. He holds the white stick between his plump pink lips and rips open the belt and zipper of his pants.
He takes a long drag. You always found it annoyingly attractive how he holds them, pinched tightly between his thumb and index, gesticulating with them when he needs to make a particular point in a conversation. The smoky undertones that cling to his lips whenever you dipped your tongue inside.
“You know I looked up one time how long it takes a cigarette to burn down. Average is five to seven minutes. I even timed myself when I was younger and first started smoking. It’s a stupid thing.” You’re still paralyzed on the chair across from him waiting for the punchline. “I used to average five minutes. No idea how long it takes me now. You have until this is finished to do things your way, since you seem to want to call the shots, and bounce that pretty little ass up and down on my cock.”
“And when it's done?”
“You’ll just have to wait and see won’t you, sweetheart?”
You should have been embarrassed at the speed of which you jumped up to take his hardening cock out of his pants. You lick him only twice; engulfing him all the way into your mouth the second time before straddling his lap. You’re still sore from the events of last night. You ruck your skirt up higher and pull your panties to the side. You try to have him enter you slowly but his hips buck into you; stretching you so deliciously from the inside.
“Don’t pretend like you’re not dripping, sweetheart.”
He wasn’t wrong. He makes no move to touch your breasts or guide your hips. You’re on your own working yourself up and down on his length while trying to balance your weight on the desk chair.
He’s leaned far back taking drag after drag off his smoke. When a quarter of it is gone, you’ve settled in your rhythm. When half is gone ripples of pleasure have settled low in your pelvis; the beginnings of something begging to be unleashed. When a quarter remains, your fists are bunched in Hoppers uniform biting the back of your hand to keep your pants and moans at an acceptable volume. The entire time Jim hasn’t moved. One hand is tucked smugly behind his head as he leans and the other only moves to bring the cigarette from the ashtray to his lips and back again.
“Times up, sweetheart.”
“Wait! I’m so close!”
“I don’t fucking care! Times up!”
He stands, easily carrying the weight of you, and roughly presses your back against the cool wood of his desk with his own wood still deep inside you. His hulking frame hunches over you briefly planting a sloppy but much needed kiss on your lips. He tugs your hips off the desk so they’re supported only by his huge palms.
“Look down, baby. Look at me inside you. You have no idea how long I’ve wanted to see you like this. Spread wide, taking my cock so fucking well on my desk.” Your core clenches as he pumps in and out of you wildly. You adored when he was like this; brutish and wild. A Hopper only you got to see.
A knock on the door interrupts your haze of lust.
“The door isn’t locked! Hopper, the door isn’t locked?!”
“It doesn’t have a lock.” His palm smacks a stinging blow against your ass. “That doesn’t mean I’m stopping.”
His pace is bruising and brutal only interspersed by the occasional biting smack from his hands on your flesh. You feel yourself inch further away from him from the power of his thrusts. A frustrated hand grips you hip tightly and the other plants firmly on your neck. Using each pressure point of your body for leverage, he resumes his punishment. Another knock sounds against the door; louder and more urgent.
“I’m busy!” He bellows at the door. “Can you imagine it, sweetheart. Phil barging in here seeing you choked out, ass red, and taking my fat cock.”
That nearly pushes you over the edge. Your tiny hand sandwiches his on your throat pressing a bit harder. He meets your gaze knowing what your asking. The pressure increases on your windpipe. You couldn’t tell him how much you loved it even if you wanted to. He grinds his pelvis into yours like he does when his own release is close. Another couple of thrusts and you’re clenching and spasming around him while he empties in you warm and sticky.
The first breath of air is cold and gulped down greedily.
“Chief!” The knocking returns. “We got a call. I really think we should go check this out.”
“In a second!”
He kisses you tenderly and helps you straighten yourself before tucking himself back in his pants.
“Too far, sweetheart?”
“No, Hop. Just far enough.”
“I don’t hate it by the way. The whole, flirting with the other guys in the office thing.” You straighten his tie and press out wrinkles in the shirt. “You were right. It turns me on. Knowing I’m the one to get to go home and be the one to fuck you into the mattress.”
“The only one, Chief.”
You wink before throwing the door open to the office and returning to reality. Phil stands there eyeing the both of you guiltily. Before you make it back to your own desk, you hear him apologizing to Hopper.
“I’m sorry, Chief. Truly. Shouldn’t be acting like that here at work.”
“You’re right, Phil. Don’t let it happen again.” He sneaks a glance at you, still preening from your words, while he shrugs on his blue jacket with the sherling lapels. “But between you and me, I think she kinda likes it.”
#Jim Hopper x reader#hopper x reader#Jim Hopper#Jim Hopper x you#Jim Hopper smut#hopper x you#Jim Hopper x female reader#stranger things#stranger things fanfiction#my writing#my fics#request fic
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Yugio S3 Ep 26: Marik’s Low Speed Escape From the Museum
This episode is quite short and contains about two things 1.) this weird 4-way duel that has little bearing on anything except who gets to play Marik and get super cursed first and 2.) flashbacks.
I am so thankful for flashbacks, because this was mostly watching Kaiba doing his damnedest to manipulate Joey Wheeler and Yugi into not working with eachother so that way Joey would lose and go up against Marik when Joey Wheeler has already decided he was going to go up against Marik.
It was very catty. Kaiba at his cattiest. He really thought he was breaking up this friendship of two people who were once chained by the ankles to an anchor when they’re like “no, Kaiba, you don’t get it. Kaiba, this is totally unnecessary, Kaiba. Kaiba, calm down.”
To be fair to Seto Kaiba, he probably absolutely believes that this is what Yugi is going to do before their Senior Year of High School is over. Kaiba kind of lives in a Game of Thrones situation in his head when in reality...he’s in high school playing cards.
(read more under the cut)
We also get a flashback of this show desperately trying to prove to us that they had planned JoeyxMai this whole time. I’m starting to realize this is just how they write most romances on this show, by inserting flashbacks instead of actually showing any romance in the current timeline.
And by romance, I mean aggressive friendship because yes that age gap is...still there. My bro was like “I dunno if they’re even still in High School at this point. I think they wrote them out of High School without telling us” but like, until they show me directly that they have graduated, then I’m just gonna still believe they’re in high school. Except Seto who is like both 18 and 16 and a college graduate at 14 or just never graduated the 9th grade depending on who you’re talking to. Seto will be our outlier of “he’s in class but don’t ask.”
Anyway, lets go hang out with Ishizu to see what happened when Marik decided to pay her a visit at the museum. This occurred directly after she handed over her God card to Seto Kaiba.
Yes, she gave her God card to Seto Kaiba, and then, once he was out the door, decided to lock herself in a vault, just so she could spook her little brother’s cultists. This family and their weird pranks.
But here’s the thing I just realized that I can’t shake. I know it’s a kid’s show so none of this will matter, but let me go a little Ace Attorney on us here and just throw out a very quick “objection!” to the floor because...there’s some continuity issues.
+++++++++++++++BORKED TIMELINE RANT FEEL FREE TO SKIP ++++++++++
(Shocking on this show that has Seto Kaiba’s timeline, that there’d be some continuity issues, but youknow...now we have new one.)
If she JUST gave that card to Seto Kaiba, and she did not leave Japan from the time that she gave Seto the card and the time the tourney started (since this museum show I assume has been in Japan this entire time), then why is Marik here?
Marik came here on a boat in the middle of S2, he made a big fuss about it, but apparently he was already here just weeks earlier. He was already in Japan, then got back on his boat, and just sailed around in the Pacific for a spell before heading back?
Did he just come here to get these cards and then also drop off Bandit Keith???? Except...Bandit Keith was...before Ishizu showed up in the timeline of this show.
Or, and this is might be even more confusing, what if this is happening in Egypt, and it’s a completely different museum, and Ishizu just left Japan at some point to stand in a vault until her brother showed up,and then got back on a plane back to Japan just in time to crash Yugi’s date?
And here’s the thing, lets just pull out that borked timeline. The Ishtar timeline, from the perspective of the Isthars, lets do this.
1. Marik feels like going on a really exotic yachting trip with his cultist buddies and decides to check out Pegasus’ Island off the coast of America(?) While there, he unexpectedly comes across Bandit Keith, who (and this must have been really shocking to every single cultist there who is used to living underground) is violently shot out of a strange slip n’ slide mechanism, that pops him out of a cliff-face and vaults him directly into the ocean. Curious, Marik picks the weird Trash American out of the sea, and he finds out that Bandit Keith knows Yugi, but instead of invading Pegasus’ island where Yugi was currently residing, Marik decides to go allllll the way to Japan (Which is crazy because Bandit Keith did not know what part of Japan Yugi lived in. Japan is freakin huge and made up of several islands.)
2. Since Marik wanted to get to Yugi ASAP, he tosses Bandit Keith onto the coast of Domino in order to abduct Yugi on his way to soccer practice. We can assume this happened...like a few weeks later (I really am not sure how fast his party yacht moves, but like...considering we also don't know where Pegasus’ island is (Maybe like the coast between California and Mexico?????) I can never say.) At this point, Marik probably just peaced out and went to Guam to hang out 20 leagues away from where Noah was currently plotting his revenge.
3. While Yugi is recovering from 3rd degree burns form the warehouse fire, and during which time, Yugi’s doctors were also trying to figure out how the hell to get Yugi to let go of the goddamn golden puzzle that remained in his hands from the moment Yugi passed out to the moment Yugi woke up in the hospital, Ishizu lands in Japan via a plane (although the English version erroneously says she lands in America, because for a little while they wanted to pretend that this entire show takes place in the US.) She unpacks her cargo, sets up a museum exhibit, and then on the news/psychic phone call, invites Seto Kaiba over so she can give a God Card to Seto Kaiba. I assume al that happened the very evening that the museum show opened. Like maybe this happens over the course of maybe a week or so from when Marik left Japan after dropping off Bandit Keith?
4. Shortly after (within the amount of time it takes Kaiba to get the idea to do the tourney and the time to hastily throw it together (which could not have been long, this tourney is a complete disaster)) Marik crashes Ishizu’s museum in.......Japan? Japan or Egypt. Something like that. Considering he wants to go where the God Cards are, he’d probably go to the exhibit that also has the giant God Card tablet that will curse everyone that looks at it. So...probably Japan. However, there are palm trees here, and so maybe it’s Egypt? I don’t know. After that doesn’t work out, he peaces out yet again, and then gets back on his boat for the second time, and goes straight back to Guam or wherever.
5. A few days later, Ishizu crashes Yugi’s and Tea’s date. (and if she has been in Egypt spooking Marik in a vault, this means she had to get off of a plane in order to make it in time to spook this date as well on the other side of the world) She tells Yugi about the tourney because for some reason, Kaiba has invited everyone with invites but just...didn’t send an invite to Yugi for some reason although Yugi is the only reason he’s throwing this tourney. Then she shows Yugi the cursed God Card tablet and then peaces out so she can join Kaiba’s tourney and play cards peacefully while everyone else was getting attacked by cultists.
6. About a few days later into the tourney...Marik arrives in Japan and we act as if this is the first time he ever has and it’s with a MUCH better motorcycle, but we’ll get to that motorcycle later.
It’s not as bad as the Kaiba timeline--I can’t even put the Kaiba timeline in a consecutive order, but mm. This brother sister team realllly likes to travel across the entire world and back within the span of a couple of months, huh?
++++++++OK THAT’S ENOUGH ABOUT THAT TIMELINE, BACK TO THE SHOW+++++++++++
I am so weirded out that Marik doesn’t wear like anything under his cloak. Like nothing. It’s just a gross sweaty cloak and that’s it...and like I have NO idea if he has pants on, they never scroll down. I mean, I assume he has matching purple pants...or probably cargoes, but...does he? Or does he just wear that cloak over a pair of golden boxers?
Also, why is he wearing golden arm bands with a long sleeved cloak? It’s because he knows he’s gonna take that cloak off at EVERY opportunity, right? Like that’s the only reason you would bother with the arm cuffs?
And then we get the most unexpected motorcycle in history.
So like...remember how Marik was hella into Motorcycles? Remember how it was really cool hot rods that made him start towards the evil side in the first place? Think about the coolest motorcycles you know and then...admire this one
This motorcycle that moved so slowly that the cultists casually jogged behind him like it was a parade or something. Like, did he steal the motorcycle from this museum collection?
Anyway, bro let me know that apparently in the Japanese version she’s got armed guards with guns, but they were edited out. Funny thing is, bro also mentioned that since Marik can just mind control people, it makes more sense that Ishizu wouldn’t bring an armed militia with her. I gotta agree, this is the one instance where the English version actually works better.
Although that motorcycle though. Wow. It’s like out of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.
Marik just stuffed himself into that baby side car, making vroom vroom noises with his mouth as he glides away at a smooth 10 mph.
This is our serial murderer that killed Bakura, folks. It was this guy.
Kinda wish he kept the side car this entire time, that would have been a treat throughout S2.
Anyway, here’s a link to read all the recaps from Ep1 S1 in chrono order.
#yugioh#yu gi oh#yugioh recap#photo recap#episode recap#s3 ep 26#I looked up this motorcycle and it's called a ural classic and that is an unfortunate name#hot damn I know it's a vintage motorcycle but did no one on the development team 50 years ago think youknow what ural sounds like?#yugi muto#seto kaiba#joey wheeler#marik ishtar#ishizu ishtar#sidecar motorcycle
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34 things i adore about the novel i wrote for nanowrimo when i was 16
for context, i’m currently 23.
i learned that national novel writing month existed when i was in 8th grade, decided to try it for the first time in 9th. i needed a novel premise that was so self-indulgent that i knew i’d be able to keep my attention on it for 30 days and 50,000 words. the premise i picked can best be described as “jumanji, but with fanfiction.” basically, it’s about teens waking up in their favorite fictional universes and using them as the best playgrounds ever.
...for a year. the first book, written when i was 14, was about my self-insert Hazel and her best friend Drew getting ripped away from their tragically boring ordinary lives, being dropped in the Doctor Who universe, joining Torchwood, falling in love, and then being catastrophically separated and having to cope with figuring out new universes without each other’s aid. They go on solo adventures, grow as people, and then find their way back to each other.
Fast forward about eleven months. I’d enjoyed the nanowrimo experience and didn’t feel like i was done with Hazel and Drew. but a story with just them, i felt, would get boring fast. so i added in two new ‘travelers’, auby and daniel, who were originally going to be a beta couple because i was 15 and hadn’t figured out that i was gay and could write gay characters yet. the second book has more self-indulgent fandom shenanigans, but there’s an increasing tension throughout it related to why this whole being-flung-between-universes is happening to them, and whether or not some higher power is responsible. this all culminates in hazel and drew having a climactic argument, daniel leaving the apartment they share on the naruto universe to give them some space and getting stabbed and dying, and then the three remaining travelers being taken to a blank white dimension where they are offered a choice: the lives they’re living now, or almost-perfect ones in the normal world. all three of them choose to continue on as travelers. (this is the book where the relationships get really deliciously complicated--Drew and Hazel are constantly disagreeing over whether there’s a deity responsible for what’s happening to them, Auby is paired with Hazel on her first universe ever and her reaction is massively different than Hazel’s was--her only goal, at the beginning, is to go home. she hurts people on purpose in service of this goal, which Hazel is angry about for a long, long time after.)
That still wasn’t enough. there were still loose ends that i hadn’t sealed, the possibility of a story in the snippets of everyone’s old life that Evelyn (the ‘deity’) in book 2, had appeared in. so there was one more book, written my junior year of high school, to resolve it all. Evelyn turned out to be a traveler who had died. Her partner, Tobias, created his own world to work on getting her back. he brought back Daniel instead, by mistake, and then eventually succeeds. We learn, in the middle of the book, that Evelyn wasn’t the real reason all of this was happening: the true puppet master was her sister Rennie, who had been writing a story where terrible things happened to the people who had wronged her over the years. auby, when she got a little older, had abandoned Rennie as a friend. Daniel had never become her friend. Drew and Hazel had said some stupid shit to her online. But when Rennie feels the story getting really out of control (when Tobias takes things into his own hands to rescue Evelyn), she decides to try writing herself into it. And into the story she goes. At the end Evelyn is able to leverage her in-universe powers to give the travelers (who call themselves wanderers now, thanks to Tobias) another, less cruel choice: be wanderers with control over their own destinies and destinations, or stay on a nearly-utopian world she’s created for them. Drew and Hazel go, everyone else stays, Evelyn fades away.
I hadn’t reread these books in many many years. I reread the 8th grade one last summer, looking for clues about what i was like in 9th grade (i’d thrown out all my journals from when i was younger years before, a decision that i bitterly regret.). i decided to reread wanderers (aka book 3) on a whim, and found that it depended so heavily on book 2 that i had to reread the latter half of that as well.
my major reaction is that the premise, the plot, the relationships, everything--it’s all so quintissentially teenage, in a way that i genuinely didn’t understand it was at the time. the prospect of being pulled from one universe to another, with no control over where you’ll go and no knowledge of when it will happen, was always an allegory for the lack of control you have as a teenager, living under rules and expectations that you had no say in choosing. the fact that being thrown around between fictional universes goes from something the characters love, to something they question, to something they resent. the ways that they grow and change within and between the books, and the way those changes reflect changes that most people go through between fourteen and sixteen.
so, without firther ado, the list, compiled during my 2018 Wanderers reread:
1. Hazel being like “I was braver back then”
2. Drew being like “we used to like testing our limits, now we were afraid of what we might be capable of”
3. The complicated relationship between Auby and Hazel and why they dislike each other. Hazel being like “Drew and I worked well with Daniel because he was independent and unique, but Auby was clingy and needed to lean on people. I didn’t like being anyone’s people.”
4. The general sense of them having no control over the course their lives are taking, and coping with it by leaning hard into their relationships. It’s so teenage and at 16 when I was writing this I didn’t even realize that.
5. The pacing in Wanderers! The Rennie stuff at the beginning! The stories of everyone hanging out independently or in little groups before they’re all brought to the same location by Tobias’s success! The way we leave off Tobias and Daniel’s story, after their relationship and quest have been explored a little, and immediately when we come back to it, the rest of the kiddos are involved.
6. The characters unique preferences and thought patterns that resolve themselves so well in first person, why tf did I stop writing this way?
7. The sweetness and gentleness between Hazel and Drew; how much they love each other. Hazel letting Drew hug her for longer because she’s concerned about how wiped out he looks, the two of them laughing together the first morning in the Forest, Hazel’s (kinda irrational kinda founded) jealousy of Auby
8. Auby’s very confusing feelings about Daniel, who doesn’t remember the life they could have had together and isn’t the same person as he was when they would have started it.
9. “It wasn’t fair, and I know life isn’t fair, but this thing was the reason my life wasn’t fair”
10. The downsides of the AU. Drew felt like the alternate him was a bad person. Hazel didn’t love Drew as strongly. Auby getting almost everything she wants but still pining for the only thing she has now. And being unable to mourn this Daniel, g-d.
11. “On the nights when I was just getting to bed after not sleeping for a few days, before Daniel, was the only time that I ever allowed myself to think about Evelyn actually being back.”
12. I haven’t done character work this intense since uh. Since this.
13. Rennie feeling like a bystander to her own (magical) story. The whole concept of there being a place where her characters are that she can’t describe because she can’t make herself see it. Her seizing back control in the end.
14. Rennie didn’t realize she was being cruel, she thought she was coping
15. Fuck did I pour myself into Auby and Rennie’s relationship. As both of them at the same time somehow.
16. TOO BAD THE LOCKDOWN HAD A PURPOSE also really good pacing. When did I get so bad at pacing
17. The fucking metaphors. Tobias turning his mind into a ‘drill’ instead of a ‘net’ when he’s mentally linked with Evelyn
18. “Her voice was like bells, like wind chimes, like laughter. It was larger than life, and there was no problem with that.”
19. G-d Tobias’s last conversation with the ‘real’ Evelyn
20. “I hate you, you know,” Rennie said mildly, as though she was informing me that my shoe was untied.
21. I grasped at threads, responded to what I could understand with the words that I could find. “Rennie, you know that I would never-“ -- “Yeah, Auby, I do,” she said. “Because I wrote you that way. You’re not actually Auby Harris. You’re my Auby Harris.”
22. The concept of Tobias and Evelyn flying too close to the sun together, and Evelyn paying for it materially, and Tobias paying for it in heartbreak. The sense that they really love each other.
23. Auby blaming herself for the things Rennie did because Rennie was betrayed by (a different) Auby
24. Rennie makes room for Auby on the couch and Auby goes to sit on a different couch
25. That good good serial narrative shit! Hazel’s main internal struggle in the second book being reconciling what had happened in the first book! The ending of the second book hanging like a specter over all of them for the entirety of the third book!
26. This was the end of the line. This was our happily ever after. But the stories had never left off with the character in his happily ever after jumpy and frustrated, almost craving the intensity of the harsh journey behind him? […] we had always thought of our lives as us against the world, and now there was just…us.
27. Tobias’s profound sense of loss after Evelyn dies, then him finding a piece of nature that he believes carries her essence, about which he thinks “Calm, and yet bold, breathtakingly beautiful. Yes, Evelyn was here.”
28. EVERYONE BUT RENNIE HAS BEEN LIVING THIS LIFE SINCE THEY WERE 14 SO ONLY RENNIE KNOWS HOW TO DRIVE
29. PAGES LONG argument between Hazel and Rennie about whether Marvel or DC makes better comics, interrupted by other happenings on the universe, involving all the major relationships between the characters, they eventually put it to a group vote because everyone else is getting annoyed, it turns out to be a tie because there are only six of them left and everybody loses because Evelyn is dead. Just the way the realization of the results of the vote cuts all of the tension.
30. Everyone gradually transitioning from calling themselves Travelers to calling themselves Wanderers, and Auby not finding out that’s what they call themselves now until page 120/123
31. Hazel letting Drew choose whether to stay or keep wandering at the end. Drew’s justification: I need her. She needs it. The fact that that’s softened by his restlessness in utopia like fifteen pages before.
32. Hazel forgiving Auby, in their last ever conversation, for something that she had done ninety fucking thousand words ago.
33. Daniel being sure that even though he’ll be okay, Rennie and Tobias will never be over Evelyn’s death. The fact that he starts talking and starts a little memorial service for her—Daniel, who tried his best not to need people, who usually barely speaks.
34. The fact that the last line is (Hazel asking Drew) “Where do you want to start?”
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Have £1k to invest? I think the HSBC share price could crush the FTSE 100 this year
With Brexit more uncertain than ever, should you be holding your cash spare and waiting for market conditions to improve?
Personally, I’ve been buying shares recently. In my view, last year’s market drop has left a number of companies trading at attractive prices. My purchases have been split between international stocks I expect to be Brexit-proof and UK businesses I hope will recover after Brexit.
Today I want to look at one stock from each camp. One is a share I already own and the other is one I’d be happy to buy.
A Brexit-proof buy?
My first pick today is Anglo-Asian banking giant HSBC Holdings (LSE: HSBA). This £128bn firm makes about 90% of its profits in Asia. According to the most recent figures available, about 65% of the bank’s accounts are in the UK or Hong Kong. Of the remainder, only 7.5% are in other European countries.
From what I can see, leaving the EU is unlikely to cause serious problems for HSBC.
A rock-solid 6% income
The HSBC share price has fallen about 18% over the last year, but the bank’s performance has continued to improve. Return on average shareholders’ equity — a key measure of profitability — rose from 8.2% to 9% during the first nine months of the year.
The balance sheet appears strong too. The bank’s regulatory Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 14.3% at the end of September, well above the 9.5% minimum required by regulators.
The stock’s fall over the last year has improved the value available to new buyers. The shares currently trade in line with their last reported book value of $8.10 (c.633p) and offer a well-covered dividend yield of 6%.
In my view, the shares are an excellent buy for income. If the global economy remains stable, I think there’s a good chance HSBC will outperform the FTSE 100 in 2019.
Dividend + growth
HSBC may get bigger. But its size means that it’s unlikely to be a standout growth stock. Fortunately there are some excellent smaller financial firms on the UK market which I believe have good growth potential.
One of my top picks, which I own myself, is small-cap fund manager Miton Group (LSE: MGR). The firm’s fund management is overseen by well-known small-cap specialist Gervais Williams, who also has an 8.9% shareholding in the firm.
The Miton share price has fallen by nearly 30% over the last six months as investors priced in a weaker performance due to market falls. Figure released by the company today show that the value of its assets has fallen, with net inflows of £1,019m in 2018 partially offset by £466m of investment losses.
However, Miton’s investment style is mainly long term, so I don’t think these short-term falls should be a concern. We’ve already seen the market start to bounce back in 2019. Looking ahead, I think the group’s £25m cash balance and solid track record should pave the way for further growth.
Miton shares currently trade on 12 times 2018 forecast earnings, with a 3.4% yield. That seems good value to me, given that the group’s cash balance covers nearly 30% of the share price. I’d be happy to buy more.
You Really Could Make A Million
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More reading
Why I’d pick the BP and HSBC share prices to beat my State Pension
Forget buy-to-let! I reckon HSBC is a much better buy for 2019
Roland Head owns shares of Miton Group. The Motley Fool UK has recommended HSBC Holdings. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
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15 to watch 111918
15 TO WATCH/5 SPORTS TECH/POWER OF SPORTS 5: RICK HORROW’S TOP SPORTS/BIZ/TECH/PHILANTHROPY ISSUES FOR THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 19 with Jamie Swimmer & Jacob Aere Major League Baseball is sticking with Fox Sports. MLB signed a seven-year media rights deal with Fox worth a reported $5.1 billion over its lifetime, equating to $728.6 million per year. Fox is currently locked into an eight-year, $525 million per year deal that is set to run through 2021. According to SportsBusiness Journal, “The deal, which keeps MLB tied to Fox and FS1 through 2028, looks much like Fox’ current deal, in part, because that was all MLB could sell as its other media packages are not up.” The new the new , Fox is going all in on baseball, preparing to carry the World ri iewership numbers. Despite being removed from the NFL’s slate of game this season, Mexico remains in the NFL’s long term international plans. According to the Los Angeles Times and other sources, the International Series game between the Kansas City Chiefs . Estadio Azteca is one of the most iconic and historic stadiums in the Americas, having played host to countless mega sporting events, such as two Wo weekend of November, when Mexicans celebrate the Revolution's an sary." “In the next 20 years the Mexican economy is going to grow,” said NFL Executive VP of International Mark Waller. “So it’s important for us that we’re part of that long-term future.” While moving the Thanksgiving We l, doesn't even include a view of the court itself. The Warriors noted that fans who "purchase the pass will have access to the arena's bars and restaurants and can watch on the televisions in the club areas." And fans, who can each buy up to four of the new passes, still have a chance to receive one of the Warriors’ in-venue giveaways if they are one of the first 10,000 people into the arena. Sporting events have been cast as the new social clubs, and for the 44,000 fans stuck on the Warriors season-ticket wait list, this is an innovative alternative to bask in the aura of the most exciting team in basketball. A future Winter Olympics in Calgary seems unlikely after voters rejected a bid for the 2026 Games. According to the Calgary Herald, supporters of the city’s 2026 bid noted that another bid for the 2030 ir Scott Hutcheson. “You can't put a city through this every four years. My view would be let it go, accept the result, move on and come back with a bid maybe in seven years.” Funding for the mega event was always up in the air, even after the IOC pledged to help pick up a significant chunk colored “to raise awareness of Stonewall’s Rainbow Laces campaign.” The EPL will promote the cause during two weekend’s worth of matches beginning on November 30, “giving all 20 clubs the opportunity to celebrate their LGBT community and to make clear football is for everyone” with rainbow colored laces. Premier League matches will feature a "bespoke Rainbow Laces pitch flag, ball plinth, handshake board and substitutes board” from November 30-December 5. This push for awareness in the LGBT community has been echoed all across the globe in professional soccer. In June, the U.S. men’s and women’s and other international teams sported rainbow numbers on their jerseys during competitive and friendly matches as part of LGBT Pride Month. Leaked documents regarding a new “Super League” have taken the soccer world by storm. According to JohnWallStreet, plans for the newly-proposed league were revealed by German magazine Der Spiegel and indicated that seven of Europe’s biggest clubs (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, AC Milan, Manchester United, and Arsenal) ongoing leadership turmoil, this is an interesting development to watch indeed. Tennis has a new tournament in the ATP Cup. According to SportsBusiness Journal, the new competition will feature teams from 24 nations with buckets of ranking points and prize money. These new plans set men’s professional tennis on a “collision course” with the ITF’s planned 18-nation Davis Cup event being held in late November 2019 in Madrid. With the new ATP Cup, “the ATP is essentially replicating the same format six weeks later to start the 2020 season in Australia.” Many close to the sport speculate that the events will eventually merge or one will have to replace the other. The first ATP Cup is being planned for early January, 2020 in three Australian cities with $15 million to be awarded in prize money, “less than the roughly $20 million the Davis Cup said it will award next November.” While the money will be less, the ranking points will be worth a lot in this event, as “smaller prize money might be a worthwhile tradeoff.” The sport’s ranking male stars, already long in the tooth by tennis standards, will be a year older when the ATP Cup debuts, so expect this new global stage to be grabbed by many now-unknown throughout the 2019 season leading up to the Tour Championship. “Rather than 72 players making the Race to the CME Globe, 60 players will make it to the Race,” said LPGA Commissioner Mike Whan. “We'll still race all year…Once you're one of the 60 to get in, we throw the points out the door and anybody can win the final event. The winner's check will be $1.5 million, so it will be the largest winner's check in women's golf history. To think that the best players in the world won't be paying more attention to the CME Group Tour Championship next year would be wrong.” The Race upgrades mark the latest creative flourish in Whan’s expansive LPGA tenure, from expanding his tour’s global footprint to adding cutting-edge events like the Indy Women in Tech Presented by Group1001 tournament. The legalization of sports betting across the country is expected to ultimately change how we interact with sports venues. According to USA Today, Monumental Sports & Entertainment Chair and CEO Ted Leonsis expects sports venues to eventually become “casinos of a sort — open nearly around the clock to capture a coming mania for legalized sports betting.” Some expect new stadiums to be smaller than previously built ones as virtual reality becomes a more viable option for watching games. Instead of paying for a courtside seat, one would simply have to pay a much smaller fee for that same seat thanks to their VR headset. Leonsis sees sports franchises across the board increasing their franchise values as they begin to partner with technology companies for advanced sports betting. “Five years from now, it could be an Amazon is streaming and your subscription is part of Prime, and they have your credit card on file and you’re able to bet live through an Amazon,” said Leonsis. “And you would have never envisioned that something like that could happen.” As anyone who has viewed a basketball game from a VR-enabled courtside seat can attest, this technology is fast maturing, and it’s certainly conceivable that sports betting could become a regular – and lucrative – part of the experience. Chegg teams up with sports stars Julie Johnston Ertz of USA Women's Soccer and Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles. According to PR Newswire, Chegg will give $860.00 dollars for every first down and $1,086.00 dollars for every touchdown recorded by Zach for a contribution of up to $86,000.00 to the Ertz Family Foundation. The “86” is an ode to Zach's jersey in a campaign dollar amount. All proceeds will benefit the Ertz Family Foundation's education initiatives. The campaign started on the NFL regular season opening game and will run through February 10, 2019. To date, Zach has earned $41,550 from Chegg. Zach has been honored as an NFL Pro Bowl nominee in 2017 and was recently named the NFLPA Community MVP for Week 5 as a result of his work to change the lives of children in Haiti through the Foundation's scholarship program. Zach and his world champion wife Julie established the Ertz Family Foundation earlier this year. The dream philanthropy team continues to stay dedicated to their community and relentlessly promote education. The New York Yankees are money savvy, but they really just want to win above anything else. According to SportsBusiness Journal, Yankees Managing General Partner Hal Steinbrenner noted that staying under the luxury tax line of $206 million is “on his mind,” but it is not “as much of an ardent goal this season.” Having fallen to their bitter rivals, the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees’ front office is more motivated than ever to win this coming year. “We’re going to keep adding pieces until we’re sure we are where we need to be,” he said. The Red Sox having been taking flack from many around the league for buying their way to a championship, having spent $234 million to build this season’s championship team. “It’s only one team,” said Steinbrenner. “It comes down to the player development system. And I think anything’s possible with payrolls that aren’t $250 million to $300 million.” Reportedly front and center in the Yankees’ sites: free agent short stop Manny Machado, acquired by the Dodgers from the Orioles in July for five prospects and a $6.3 million one-year contract. The Tampa Bay Rays are running out of time to find a viable stadium option for the long term. The team currently plays at Tropicana Field and has been searching for a viable new home for years now. According to the Tampa Bay Times, less than two months remain "until the window closes on a three-year agreement” between the Rays and the city of St. Petersburg for the team to explore ballpark options in Tampa. The team has proposed a new home in Ybor City, though plans have not yet been revealed publicly regarding funding for the $900 million development. With local elections “out of the way, negotiations between the team and city and county officials on a ballpark financing plan are expected to kick into high gear.” A hard deadline of December 31 is in place to come to a consensus on the Ray’s new stadium plans, and it seems unclear whether an agreement will be struck before then. Major League Baseball plans a summer league for high schoolers. MLB is "planning a summer league for elite high school players that it hopes will eat into the pay-for-play market that exists today," according to sources. This would mark MLB's "boldest effort yet to reclaim a youth apparatus that has been outsourced to third-party profiteers." The Prospect Development Pipeline League, announced by MLB last week, would "invite 80 of the best rising seniors -- most of whom will be drafted in 2020 -- and offer the best of the group a chance to play at a high school game during All-Star week in addition to a high school home run derby." The league "could grow in size and scope and perhaps challenge the current system." MLB is clearly taking a page from the NBA’s playbook, which includes opportunities for high schoolers within its ever-evolving G League farm system. Next year, G League Select Contracts, which will include robust programmatic opportunities for development, will be available for elite basketball players who are at least 18 years old and will pay $125,000 for the five-month season. The Pac-12 announced that Arizona State University and the University of Colorado Boulder will meet in 2019 in the fifth edition of the Pac-12 China Game presented by Alibaba Group. Longtime Pac-12 partner Federation of University Sports of China will serve as the co-host for the basketball game. The matchup between the Sun Devils and Buffaloes is tentatively scheduled for November 9, 2019 for national broadcast in both the U.S. and China. It will be the "first time the game has featured two programs from the Pac-12, though the contest will be considered a nonconference game.” The game also will mark the "first time a CU program from any sport will compete in Asia," according to BuffZone.com. Yale beat Cal last Saturday 76-59 in the 2018 Pac-12 China Game, marking the “first time a Pac-12 team has fallen in its opening China Game” according to the Yale Daily News. The game was played in “front of 4,000 Chinese fans” at Baoshan Sports Center in Shanghai and a national tv audience. This annual matchup remains the only regular-season game played by a U.S. sports league, pro or collegiate, in China. Just call it hoops diplomacy. WWE is reporting that WrestleMania 34 generated $175 million in economic impact for the city of New Orleans region this past April. According to a study conducted by the Enigma Research Corporation, this marks the seventh consecutive year that WrestleMania generated more than $100 million in economic impact for its host region. A record crowd of 78,133 fans from all 50 states and 67 countries attended WWE’s pop-culture extravaganza this past April, making it the highest-grossing entertainment event in the history of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. WrestleMania’s financial windfall is just the latest in a string of top-dollar mega events bringing major revenue to the Crescent City, most recently the 2017 NBA All-Star Game, which brought an estimated $44.9 million in spending to the state of Louisiana and Super Bowl LVIII in 2013, which created $480 million in economic impact. Kudos to stadium management leader SMG and their New Orleans-based vice president of stadiums Doug Thornton for key contributions to all three events. Tech Top Five The Game Awards will livestream across a record-setting 40 global networks, including expanded distribution in China. According to Cynopsis Sports, the PlayStation 4, Xbox Live, IGN, GameSpot, Polygon, MLG, Caffeine.tv, and others. With esports a bubbling industry, it is only fitting that the Oscar-like event celebrates the recent successes of top video games while looking toward the future by teasing upcoming gaming trailers for audiences. Like video games themselves, The Game Awards allow for audience participation, with 10% of the final vote driven by the public, further cementing esports’ interactive nature. The NBPA has inked a deal to bring its stars closer to the esports world. The NBPA signed a deal with ReadyUp, an app that helps esports fans track and watch their favorite online gamers. Under the deal announced at SportsBusiness Journal’s Esports Rising, the league’s stars will now have an opportunity to profit from the online video-game leagues they take part in, says Payne Brown, president of the NBPA’s marketing arm. According to Bloomberg, these esports leagues contain franchisees, salary caps, and multimillion dollar TV deals with networks such as follows a previous agreement between the two companies, the new agreement adds coverage of the Champions League and Europa League. WSC Sports currently operates across 10 different sports in five continents and also works with properties such as the NBA, MLS, PGA, FIBA, United Soccer League, World Surfing League, Turner Sports, Cricket Australia, and others. The drive for shorter clips, due to shorter attention spans, may be WSC’s key to sports business success as game highlights tend to be what people will spend the most time consuming. Tim Tebow is teaming up with LeBron James to host “Million Dollar Mile.” According to The Washington Post, “Million Dollar Mile” is a new TV competition series co-created by James’s production company, SpringHill Entertainment. Tebow finds himself at the helm of another high profile offseason job as he already serves as a college football analyst for ESPN. CBS will air the 10-episode series and claimed in an August news release that the show involves “shutting down the streets of a major city” to set up a course with competitors at one end and $1 million at the other. The catch is that it’s supposedly the most challenging course ever designed, with a group of elite athletes attempting to stop the contestants from winning the money at all costs. James’ company has also produced Showtime’s “Shut Up and Dribble,” HBO’s “Student-Athlete,” Starz’s “Warriors of Liberty City,” NBC’s “The Wall,” and Facebook’s “Do or Dare.” “Million Dollar Mile” will feature ESPN reporter Maria Taylor and Los Angeles Chargers play-by-play announcer Matt “Money” Smith with a release date yet to be announced. LeBron pushes the limits of what’s possible on and off the court and has proven that he can be a very successful field marshal with a camera as well as a basketball. MLB coupled its massive Fox Sports deal with a $300 million streaming deal with DAZN. On top of a deal that will see Fox Sports pay $728 million for its rights annually, MLB has secured a three-year streaming deal with over-the-top streaming service DAZN which will not feature rights to any live games, but will include live cut-ins. This deal marks the first domestic major league sports property for DAZN in the U.S. and will likely be accompanied by a weeknight show similar to the NFL’s popular “RedZone.” The new MLB agreement will also feature an expanded streaming, social media, and highlights strategy between the partners. While it’s not shocking to see Fox continue its MLB relationship, DAZN keeps growing its OTT empire by breaking into a major U.S. sports market – expect NHL, NFL, or even NBA deals from the OTT company in the near future. Power of Sports Five For the fourth year in a row, this Black Friday, REI will close all 153 stores, process no online payments, and pay more than 12,000 employees to #OptOutside with friends and family. Since 2015, 15 million people and more than 700 organizations have joined the #OptOutside movement — REI’s effort to inspire people to do something other than consume. This year, REI is also pledging $1 million toward the launch of a new center of academic excellence at the University of Washington called Nature for Health that will study the link between human health and time spent outdoors. The new center of academic excellence within the university’s EarthLab will broaden and deepen its examination of how time outside impacts our health. It will build on existing bodies of work and explore new ideas — such as whether a dose of nature can be prescribed alongside traditional medicine to tackle issues such as anxiety and depression. With the annual move, REI joins other progressive companies such as sports science leader Embody and active wear giant Lululemon in thinking outside the box when it comes to sports and recreational health. Purdue superfan Tyler Trent gets a bobblehead to help the fight against cancer. According to ESPN, the former Purdue student is fighting a rare form of bone cancer. He became such a national sensation during the Boilermakers' victory over Ohio State last month that there was a significant rise in donations supporting cancer research. Now, the 20-year-old will be honored with his very own bobblehead to be sold by the Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum in Milwaukee. The trinkets will sell on the HOF website for $30 with the Tyler Trent Cancer Research Endowment at Purdue to receive $2 from the proceeds of each bobblehead sold, while The V Foundation for Cancer Research will receive $3 apiece. Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum founder Phil Sklar said that Trent’s bobblehead is comparable to many other successful creations like Sister Jean, in which people felt a strong connection to the person and their message. Donations to Tyler's fund, thanks in part to a dollar-for-dollar match with the Walther Cancer Center in Indianapolis, have topped $100,000. To make a personal battle against cancer a fight for the bigger cure is something noble of Trent – to highlight his efforts by representing him donning his school’s colors in bobblehead form is something lasting by the Hall of Fame. The RESPONSIBALL Forum proposes a call to action for refugees’ inclusion in sport. The event was held in in Lausanne, Switzerland to promote the use of athletics to support refugees. According to sportanddev.org, speakers and attendees came from a variety of backgrounds and had the chance to hear stories, share experiences, and learn how to more effectively run programs. Among the panelists were refugees, sports federations, NGOs, and governments. The event ended with a call to action that aims to put sports higher up the agenda as a tool to work with refugees while encouraging more coordination between different athletic and refugee organizations. Additionally, the panels sought to have research provided to back up the claims that sport helps refugees acclimate to their new countries. Sports and international politics are inevitably entwined, and providing more access to athletics for refugees may help countries also grow a stronger fan base and business platform for their professional sports teams. In the wake of Paul Allen’s passing, his foundation will reap the profits of the Seattle Seahawks’ sale. According to SportsPro, proceeds from the future Seahawks sale are set to be put towards the Paul G. Allen Foundation. This was a move that Allen himself had planned before he passed away in October. Although Jody Allen, sister of Paul, has assumed control of Allen’s estate, it is assumed that the team will now be sold to a wealthy individual or investor group. Based upon estimates, the sale will likely set records for a North American sports franchise, with Forbes suggesting a potential sale of $2.6 billion. Paul Allen also owned the NBA Portland Trail Blazers and was a part owner of the MLS Sounders FC, which are also likely to be sold later this year for roughly $1.3 billion and $60 million respectively. Although he was an early tech mogul, Allen left his mark in the sports world by helping to build revered northwestern teams in multiple pro sports leagues. Colorado’s NBA and NHL teams come out for Special Olympics and educational charities. According to Westword, players from the Denver Nuggets and Colorado Avalanche, in addition to members of the Colorado Rapids soccer team and the Colorado Mammoth box lacrosse squad attended the charity fundraiser at their home arena, the Pepsi Center. The Mile High Dreams Gala brought out sports fans, media personalities, and Denver's high society for a night where proceeds went toward Kroenke Sports Charities. The event raised close to $100,000 for programs such as the Special Olympics of Colorado and the Denver Public Schools Foundation according to Deb Dowling, Kroenke Sports Charities executive director. In its tenth year, the charity gala brought out both rookie and veteran players including Michael Porter Jr. and Gary Harris of the Nuggets. This cross-sport charity gala highlights how athletes across multiple leagues can come together to support important charitable causes in the communities in which they play.
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Ramblings: Pacioretty, Okposo, Gallagher, Kreider, and Position Scarcity – September 7
It’s the final weekend before training camp which means fantasy drafts are right around the corner for most. Time is running out to get all the knowledge you need to dominate your fantasy league this year so head to the Dobber Shop to get your copy of the 2018-19 Dobber Hockey fantasy guide! Projections, tips, line combinations, articles, and more to get you set for the upcoming campaign.
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More on the Max Pacioretty saga.
The Canadiens captain is apparently not willing to negotiate a new contract with the Habs once the season begins. That means they either extend him now, trade him now, trade him in season, or let him walk. Let’s assume Bergevin is smart enough not to let him walk for nothing, and there is enough bad blood that he won’t be extended in the next four weeks, it’s a matter of when, not if, he will be traded. That throws his potential fantasy value in disarray. If he’s traded to Colorado to play with Nathan MacKinnon, great! If he’s traded to Anaheim to play with Adam Henrique, well…?
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The refinement of my projections for 2018-19 continues. I’m still on track to have everything ready for Tuesday, which is about two weeks later than I wanted but c’est la vie.
Yesterday’s Ramblings discussed arbitrage opportunities. Today we’ll discuss positional scarcity and how that can affect rankings.
Anyone who’s played fantasy hockey long enough knows that in leagues where forwards are split between the three forward positions, elite wingers generally carry more value than elite centres. The reason for this is that someone like Mikael Granlund could be a 70-point centre this year and be the 20th-ranked centre. If you looked for the 20th-ranked left winger, you could be looking at someone like Ondrej Palat and his 50-ish points. Peripheral stats will make a difference, but the point remains the same: the floor for relevant centres in a fantasy league is higher than the floor for wingers. So, if all is equal, elite wingers have more value over replacement fantasy options than elite centres.
The categories also matter. In my latest iteration of projections, I have Connor McDavid at 28.2 hits and Blake Wheeler at 94.8. While I don’t have enough leagues to create a meaningful sample, in one of my keeper leagues, every 107.8 hits above the lowest-ranked team in hits (1185) gains one point in roto standings. In that league, though, fantasy-relevant right wingers rack up fewer hits than fantasy-relevant centres, meaning hits from right wingers are more valuable than hits from centres. Even though Wheeler is only projected for roughly 2.4 times more hits than McDavid, because of the added value to hits due to their scarcity right wing relative to centres, the value Wheeler’s hits bring to the roster are significantly more valuable than just a factor of 2.4.
Of course, that only applies if you draft Wheeler as a winger and dress him as a winger. On Yahoo!, he has multi-position eligibility. If you dress him as a centre, you’d have to compare apples to apples, and Wheeler’s hits become less valuable.
With that in mind, these are my latest top-20 skater projections for standard 12-team Yahoo! leagues, without plus/minus included. That means goals, assists, shots, power play points, and hits. They are based on everyone playing 82 games, are not age adjusted, and try to account for position (and category) scarcity.
The first thing that will jump out at people is that Connor McDavid is not first overall. In fact, he’s not even in the top-5. A few words about that.
As I mentioned, this isn’t age adjusted. If we assume McDavid keeps improving, he very easily could be at the top of the list.
Two things about McDavid’s rankings: his hit totals are so low relative to centres that his 28 projected hits are actually a net negative in reference to points gained in roto standings. If we were to exclude hits as a category for all skaters, McDavid moves from sixth to third and Alex Ovechkin moves from fifth to eighth. There isn’t a huge spread at the top; the point distance between first and fifth is smaller than the distance between fifth and seventh. Moving even just a few spots at the top is significant. But it should show how important it is to not be a relative zero in a category. The difference in projected hits (relative to their position) between Patric Hornqvist and Auston Matthews amounts to about one-quarter of the total value that Nikolaj Ehlers projects to have this year. Just think about this statement:
The difference in hits between Patric Hornqvist and Auston Matthews is so large that it’s equal to about five goals, nine assists, 53 shots, and 2 PPPs.
When put into that context, it shouldn’t be such a big surprise McDavid isn’t ranked as a top-5 skater (subject to change). Despite how far ahead he is in aggregate in point production and (to a degree) shot totals, the replaceability at his position and his complete drag on hit totals are enough to knock him down a few pegs from the top slot.
Just as an aside for added context on how much individual league settings matter: I ran my current projections through the DraftKings scoring system (3 points for a goal, 2 for an assist, 0.5 for either a SOG or a blocked shot, 1 point for a short-handed point) and Matthews comes in as the #9 skater, between Malkin and Seguin. In Yahoo! standard setups, he’s just inside the top-25.
Now, McDavid still a top-10 pick as it is and I’m sure once I adjuste for age he’ll be a top-3 pick. But this is an exercise to show just how much it can hurt when a player is a complete nothing in an entire roto category.
On Tuesday, I showed part of my points-only projections and raved about Johnny Gaudreau. Then I ran his projections for standard roto leagues and he was *checks notes* rated ahead of several players being drafted ahead of him. A few of those names: Brad Marchand, Patrik Laine, Nathan MacKinnon, John Tavares, Tyler Seguin, Auston Matthews, and Claude Giroux, just to start.
*Note: we’re using the expected goals model from Corsica for part of the projections and they don’t like Laine at all. If he pops 40 goals again, he moves into the top-15 skaters.
The lack of hits will keep Gaudreau from being an elite fantasy option unless he gets to the 100-point mark, but that is reflected in his ranking drop from points-only leagues to roto leagues.
These projections love Gaudreau and have him fourth in the league in assists this year. Having such a leg up at a wing position in assists is a big reason he’s ranked where he is.
Right now, his Yahoo! ADP is early in the third round. That seems about perfect for those targeting him; it’s probably drafting him at where he should finish in a good year and there is loads of upside beyond that.
Blake Wheeler tops the list and that is on the heels of a season most heavily weighted in this projection where he amassed 91 points, 94 hits, and over 40 PPPs. His Yahoo! ranking is 18th, his ADP is 20th, and NHL.com has him at 14. In all likelihood, he’ll be a second-round pick in 12-team leagues this year.
It seems most people are expecting a regression from Wheeler this year and that is totally reasonable. He had a career year last year and is heading into his age-32 season. Here’s the thing about that: in 2016-17, when he had nearly half (21) the PPPs that he had in 2017-18 (40), he was still the 12th-ranked skater. Now, scoring is up league-wide so dropping to 70 points in 2018-19 wouldn’t be like having 70 points in 2016-17, but it gives us an idea that even with regression built in, he does enough elsewhere (at a wing position) that he can still be incredibly valuable.
When drafting skaters in the second round, you want to get a player who won’t hurt you and has the upside to be among the elite fantasy options. As long as Wheeler doesn’t fall off a cliff, and there’s no reason to think he will just yet, he checks both those boxes.
Anyone that follows me knows it’s no secret I think John Tavares will be over-drafted this year and this is another point on this side of the ledger. Before assuming I have any ‘bias’ or I’m a ‘hater’ these are projections based on historical performance. These aren’t made by hand. I let Excel do the work.
People have to realize that last year, Tavares had one winger score 40 goals, another winger have a 50-assist season, a rookie who put up the first 80-point season in a decade as the fourth forward on his power play unit, and Tavares didn’t even manage a career-high in points. Factor in greatly reduced PP minutes moving from a heavily-used top unit in Brooklyn to a split PPTOI setup in Toronto, and how much can we expect from him? Even repeating last year will be a good 2018-19.
Quite honestly, if you want to attack wingers and defencemen early, you can probably wait and grab Ryan Getzlaf in the fifth round as your top centre. If he can stay healthy – remember that he only missed a month and a half because of a puck to the face, it’s not like he’s an injury-prone player – he could be a point-per-game centre with stout hit totals in the fifth round.
People may be looking for Brad Marchand. This is the problem with Marchand: he’s great at racking penalty minutes, not so much in the hits department. Yahoo! switching from PIMs to hits hurts his value a lot. Marchand has 88 hits over the last two seasons, spanning 148 games; Wheeler had 94 hits last year alone. If Yahoo! had kept PIMs instead of hits as the standard, Marchand probably ranks somewhere around Malkin, Stamkos, and Kessel. Instead, his value takes a big hit.
Readers may be asking where all the defencemen are, with just Burns ranking in the top-20. Well, there are four defencemen ranked between 22nd and 28th: Victor Hedman, Dustin Byfuglien, Erik Karlsson, and John Carlson, in that order.
As mentioned earlier, this doesn’t include plus/minus. Considering the quality of the Sens this year, Karlsson could very well get buried by plus/minus. I said it in a prior Ramblings: he’s a guy you trade for in January rather than draft in September.
You’ll never believe this, but people are undervaluing Brendan Gallagher again. To be honest, the same could be said for Chris Kreider. Here’s their company in my current projections among wingers:
Remember that we’re using an expected goals model which favours net-front players. Gallagher is projected for more goals than Kreider and Kreider more than someone like Sebastian Aho. All the same, Gallagher was a top-75 player last year and that was accomplished skating with Tomas Plekanec and carrying a minus-13. If he’s on the top line and finally start playing 17-18 minutes a night? He can be a top-100 player again. He’s going much later than that in drafts.
Both Kreider and Gallagher have plus/minus concerns because of their respective teams which obviously factors into their rankings and ADP elsewhere. They also are backed by two of the top performing goalies of the last decade. Not a bad gamble.
One last guy I want to talk about: Kyle Okposo. He’s ranked outside the top-200 by Yahoo!, is not being drafted as a top-36 RW by ADP, and is just inside NHL.com’s top-250. By my projections, in a full 82-game season, I have him as the 21st right winger.
Okposo is a guy who can put up nearly a hit per game, has the ability to land 200 shots in a full year, and is likely locked on Buffalo’s top PP unit. In 12-team leagues, his cost is virtually nothing. He’s a player I want as a bench option who can finish much higher than that (two years ago, in just 65 games played, he finished just outside the top-150 players in this format).
That’s all for today. I’ll have a lot more on Tuesday when all my work should be finished.
from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-pacioretty-okposo-gallagher-kreider-and-position-scarcity-september-7/
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Okay, so this is going to be long and complex, but I believe it is all necessary to get a complete picture. This post is part advice seeking and part I would just like someone to listen. I’ll try to get in as much as possible, but I’m sure I’ll inevitably miss something. I am using an alt account since several people know my main and I’m a little embarrassed of some things.Date #1: Ok, so to start, I am M/24, she is F/18. We met on Tinder, I asked her on a date immediately and she accepted. This happened about mid December, right before Christmas break (we are both college students at the same school... well technically, more on that in a minute). So, we go on this date and it’s great, similar interests, taste in food, travel, and humor. She is intelligent and beautiful. What more can you ask for? I’m immediately struck. I am a bit of a hopeless romantic/fall hard and fast type (INFP, lol), but this is something I have come to recognize and I try my best to keep it in check.The first date ends, as we are leaving, it came up in conversation that I am about to catch the bus (my vehicle was broken at the time and I live off campus), no big deal, I’m used to it. She offers to ride me home. Now, normally I wouldn’t accept this offer (I’ve declined similar ones before this) as, while I wasn’t ashamed of taking the bus or too masculine to be driven by a female, those thoughts, unfortunately, still persist (“would I be seen as a loser for relying on a girl for a ride?” etc.). However, with her, I didn’t care... I rather have the extra 10 mins with her even if it meant looking like a loser.So, we ride to my apt, as we pull up I ask if she wants to do another date... she is interested. I ask for the following day (it is the last day before Christmas break and we both had plans to go home for break), she says she can’t do that. Obviously, that stung a bit (I know it was truly that she just didn’t have time, but still, you know?). However, on the bright side she does give me her number. We begin texting, but something becomes immediately evident. She is very slow to respond. Again, my hyper-emotional self begins to worry (“is she not interested?” “did she not mean it when she said she had a good time?” “Is she going to ghost me?” etc.).Now, this is the part where I’ll enter that I have suffered from depression for a lot of my life (never been clinically diagnosed, but, I mean... let’s be real, I think I know my own personality enough... and I think about loneliness, death and depression a bit too much to not have some form of depression). Anyways, I recognize some of the thoughts have in these situations can be irrational and again, I’m working on that (which is why I have yet to have a gross overreaction in this situation and there were/are actually more dates and more to this story).We continue texting, very slow on her end, but it is there. I begin to realize, she isn’t looking to ghost me, she is just truly bad/slow at responding. A month passes, we get back from break. I start to build up the nerve to ask her out again (it takes some time, and it should also be noted I am SUPER busy with school myself, a lot of extracurriculars). But I finally work up to it and try to set something up, however when I do I went roughly a week without a response (I didn’t want to message again too soon to seem too desperate... which is related to one of my main questions which I’ll get to in a minute... oh, also, I should note there was no kiss on the first date, that’ll be important later too).Date #2: She finally responds and apologizes, which, of course, I tell her no problem and am just happy to hear from her. We finally get a date set up for roughly a month after getting back from break (better late than never!). Dinner and a movie (or rather, movie then dinner). We go out, I have a great time, she appears/says she did too. She picked me up (vehicle wasn’t fixed quite yet... it is fixed now though, Woohoo!), drove us and dropped me off again (I did pay for everything, as I have with all our dates, not bragging or asserting that means anything, just thought I’d add it in case it helps with any advice). We get to my apartment and I immediately tell her it can’t be so long between our next date and she happily agrees. I’m so ecstatic with the thought of another date, I cheerfully tell her goodnight and get out... not thinking to read the situation if I could have made a kiss happen. That’s okay though, I figure, third date, this is going to be it. I’m going to make it happen.Our plans? One week later. Rock climbing (indoor) and dinner. The week passes (I’m gleefully counting down the days), it gets to the day before, she tells me she is at home (like, parents home, about 1-2 hours away), for a “stupid” reason, but she will be back for our date and she will explain then (bonus points if you know where this is heading... I had an idea at the time, but I tried to remain positive). Anyways, next day comes, date day, and I am all ready for the date, about to leave and meet her, when she texts me and asks if we can skip the rock climbing and just do dinner. She says she was really tired and didn’t get much sleep. I, obviously, told her yes. I added that she didn’t have to feel obligated to do dinner, that if she needed sleep I’d understand. After a bit of texting, I convinced her I was truly okay with it, so we rescheduled for 2 days later.Date #3: Ok, so the real date #3 comes. I meet her at rock climbing and it goes great as usual, I love talking with her, and we got a bit competitive (in a good way) with the rock climbing (she kicked my butt for those keeping score). After that we headed to dinner, on the way there, we were discussing our competitiveness and how we admired it in each other. I also knew she has played a decent amount of board games, so naturally, I get a great idea for the next date, game night! I mention it to her, and again she is immediately on board... except... yep, you remember that pesky little issue from earlier. For reasons (I know some of it, not all of it, but obviously don’t want to share any of it out of respect for her and her privacy), she is returning home for the rest of the semester and won’t be back until Fall (for those who called it, well played). Clearly, this is a bit of a bummer. She said she was leaving in a week, but that we could still do the game night before she left. I obviously agreed (remember, any time with her is better than none). We continued with our date and on our way to dinner... on the way, I basically brought up the fact that I really, really liked her, (she expressed the same, thank God), and that, if she wanted, I had my vehicle back and she didn’t live THAT far... that we could still try to make it work, if she was even interested. She said she had a similar thought, but wasn’t sure if I would be interested (can you say, “uh, duh?”).We continued and finished the date, it was great. However, as I knew she was/is going through a lot... I didn’t go for a kiss. We already had plans for a 4th date (game night) before she went back though. But, right after the date ended, I texted her and asked if she had heard of/seen/wanted to see the movie Game Night, because it would make a great lead up for our own game night. She did/didn’t/did. So it was another date, back to back, 4 and 5. Originally it was for this past Th/F, however, she had to move them up a day though, because she had to leave a day earlier than she thought. This was a bit difficult as it meant I had to shift some things on my schedule around, but I made it work (again, if it is to spend time with her, the “duh?” still applies). The only problem, none of my friends who originally planned to attend game night could make it (which is fair, because it was a last minute change). I was worried she wouldn’t want to do it just me and her, but she still agreed.Date 4#: We go see the movie, again, good time (we laugh at all the same parts, make some witty banter during the movie... but not too much as to be annoying/disturbing, all around great). Movie ends, I ask if she is hungry and offer to buy her dinner (wasn’t originally on the agenda). She says she is but unfortunately she has to pack still and needs to get back to her dorm. I completely understand and wish her a goodnight. Again, no kiss (I read the situation and I could clearly tell she was a bit preoccupied, which is totally fair given her current situation, so rather than try and make it awkward or make her uncomfortable or more stressed, I simply wished her a goodnight and told her I was excited for tomorrow/game night).Date #5: Game Night! I had a meeting (on campus) right before our date and so I said we could ride together after the meeting (in case you aren’t notice the theme, any extra time together is a bonus, even a 10 minutes drive). I said I could drive or she could, she offered (she has driven every time we have been together, and if her driving makes her more comfortable, then that is a-okay with me). We get back to my place and we get right into the games... however, in order to make up for the lack of people, and in order to give her a really good time before she left, you know I had a few surprises in store. Firstly, while bragging rights were on the line... I also got some other little prizes for the winner, to make it more fun. The next surprise will come at the end. Oh, and also dinner (pizza, because... pizza). We begin playing the games, she beats me at some and I win some (never let her win, because she has made it very clear she does not like that)... I obviously try to find a way to slip her most of the prizes though, because, come on, we know the prizes were mostly for her. Another amazing date... we played and talked for hours. We finish our last game, before she leaves though, I ask her to wait a second. I run and get a little “going away” gift bag I made for her (it included several things she likes/things from our dates... she likes books and she also mentioned she hadn’t read Ready Player One yet, so I got her a copy of that; she also likes coffee so I got her a Starbucks card, plus a few other small things related to our dates; and, of course, a short note wishing her safe travels). I go downstairs and give it to her, but tell her she can’t open it til she leaves.So, moment of truth. I know what you are all thinking (the two of you that are still reading at this point), did I kiss her?! The short answer: no. As we moved towards the door, preparing for our goodbyes, I mentioned that we had now had 5 dates and that I had an amazing time on all of them (she says she did too) and asked if it was fair to say we were dating and if she still wanted to continue to, which she said she did (this is when I gave her the gift). However, she said something along the lines of “well, I’ll see you again sometime,” (don’t remember word for word, but along those lines) and she seemed a bit distant, she didn’t really come in for a kiss, much less even a hug goodbye (I know the onus is “typically” on the man, but usually there is that 80/20 or even 90/10 rule, there wasn’t even a 1% here). On top of this, it was really late, we were both super tired; I did recognize she was likely still somewhat occupied by the move; I also was kind of afraid of a kiss in a sense, because what if it was amazing but then we never did end up seeing each other again? (Silly I know, but this is the brain I am working with). All these things combined, I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. I opened the door for her and said my goodbyes (all and all, still a great night... but do I regret not trying the kiss? Of course).This week/weekend I’m at a conference, so no chance of meeting up, plus I also recognize she probably wants time to get home/get settled before trying to work anything out between us, which, again, 100% understandable. So I plan/planned to give it at least until next weekend before I try to plan anything. However, I still continued to text her. And for the first few days it went really well (nothing crazy, but I actually got like 3-4 text from her each day). Then, it comes yesterday, where I didn’t hear from her once. And all that leads me to right here. Haven’t heard from her in over 24 hours (which isn’t unusual for her, but again, just trying to contextualize the situation). Also, to make it clear, my last message to her was a direct (not intrusive or anything like that) question, so it’s not like I was just like “hey.”All of that brings me to my two main questions. 1. Did I screw up by not kissing her? Has it been too long now? Or was it the right call given the circumstances? (Would love to hear from some female perspectives, especially). 2. What is the appropriate amount to text/message her? I don’t want to be (and am not, so appear to be) needy/clingy by any means. But I also want to keep the relationship/communication alive. I don’t want to let the flame die, so to speak. I know this is a tough line to tow, as too much messaging is needy (or worse, psychotic), but too little can lead to a weakening of that connection we have built and possibly yet another fizzled out relationship. So, any thoughts on how much to text? (And also appropriate things to say, other than just the constant “how are you today,” which I know is nice/sweet, but is it too repetitive/plain)? Also, any other general tips would be most appreciated! What’s in my head? What’s not? Am I worrying too much? Or just the right amount? Thank you so much for reading this far and for any potential advice! (Achievement Unlocked Ramblin’ Man: Listened to the problems of a hopeless romantic). via /r/dating_advice
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The Saga of Lake City Quiet Pills, part four- the activity of /r/lcqp
Since this particular sub has now been made private, I'll be working with my archives starting from this page https://archive.is/tRmMQ
Gamejack or legit?
Sub created Tue Apr 7 17:18:38 2015 UTC by /u/lcqp_announcer, who bafflingly enough was fairly active in the few days before starting the sub, having joined on April 3rd... despite then posting only a few times in r/lcqp before vanishing with the rest of them. If they were trying to look like a normal user, you'd think they'd pick a different username... The sub is marked NSFW for some reason. I expect this stops it from showing up in search engines or being cached by Google, or the like. Fortunately archive.is can still grab it.
THREADS
Tue Apr 7 17:25:08 2015 UTC- RALLY VINCENT RALLY VINCENT RALLY VINCENT - 5097 1934 https://www.reddit.com/r/lcqp/comments/31rq0u/rally_vincent_rally_vincent_rally_vincent_5097/ "announcer" posts a PGP message. Dustoff (same day 17:30:54), lcqp (a separate user from the announcer; reply to dustoff 17:41:47 edited at 21:35:40), sam and phelan arrive. There's a deleted post (reply to lcqp, 17:52:09), to which announcer replies with another PGP message (18:35:09). Last post on the 10th. lcqp refers to dustoff as "Kimmy". sam's posting history seems to still have the deleted reply, which is Vietnamese for (according to Uncle Google) "Ah, beautiful girl, no Oscar!". Can't be sure this is *the* deleted post though. Sam makes sure to mention his alternate name of "Than", which he's referred to by in other posts. - The comment thread has posts fairly closely clustered together (5-10 minutes between replies) except for the last one, with lcqp's post edited hours later.
Fri Apr 10 18:12:29 2015 UTC- we roll! https://www.reddit.com/r/lcqp/comments/325985/we_roll/ announcer announces a new contact system will be put into place in "a week or two", which is about how long the sub was active as a messageboard, followed by another PGP message. AyoDende comments, a full 9 days later, ie after the next post effectively closing the sub. I think you may have missed out, buddy. - This is the one that baffles me most, honestly- why is Ayo so late? If lcqp is legit (regarding this sub, regardless of the legitimacy of the LCQP story at large), why would a soldier or ex-soldier do something dumb like reply to an outdated thread in a retired communications sub? Wouldn't he at least use the more recent thread, at least acknowledge he's late? If lcqp is a put-on this can be handwaved as essentially a plothole, but why would this be in the "script"? If AyoDende isn't a part of the "show" (regardless of the legitimacy of anything else), this could be explained as some bandwagon-jumping gamejacker kid being an idiot, but he uses military jargon previously used by phelan as though he knows what he's talking about. ... Then again, given the gafes required for the original LCQP incident to have happened, maybe these people really are just a little bit dumb.
Fri Apr 17 10:49:50 2015 UTC- STAND IN THE DOOR https://www.reddit.com/r/lcqp/comments/32ws89/stand_in_the_door/ Another PGP from announcer. Dustoff confirms the "new server will be ready on Monday". This is indeed the last time the sub is used for its apparent intended purpose.
Thu Jun 4 11:27:15 2015 UTC- Oscar Sayer, 1945-2015 - "de oppresso liber" https://www.reddit.com/r/lcqp/comments/38i71i/oscar_sayer_19452015_de_oppresso_liber/ announcer posts, reporting "Shade"'s death. Dustoff replies about 5 minutes after the thread is posted. This post is stickied. Title is the motto of the United States Army Special Forces, effectively translating to "from oppression to liberation".
Tue Jun 9 17:14:29 2015 UTC- Shhhhh.... Use the new server.... https://www.reddit.com/r/lcqp/comments/396nmv/shhhhh_use_the_new_server/ Posted by lcqp, seemingly in response to the Oscar Sayer post. (Could be AyoDende's fault, but it's a bit late for that.)
Through some posters' pages, we find one more relevant thread: Wed Jun 3 15:52:59 2015 UTC- i__hah's death thread. https://www.reddit.com/r/self/comments/38dtyt/well_so_long_everyone_thanks_for_being_here_i/ Outside of /r/lcqp, a rather sobering thread where a person who is apparently "Shade" announces their own impending death by (presumably) colon cancer. This is the user's last post, preceded by about 15 minutes by one about "soothing gels" and "gratuitous nudity". Well, that's one way to go out. I'm not to sure about the logic behind this one. Apparently his doctor miscalculated i__hah's remaining lifespan by three months the first time, but he was now sure of his time of death down to the hour, possibly minute. Unless he was commiting suicide (sanctioned or otherwise), I'm not sure how this is supposed to be possible...
THE CHARACTERS
Some of the users of r/lcqp were quite active outside of the sub, while others only posted a few times. Sex and porn subreddits seem to be quite popular among these people...
lcqp_announcer- Posts mainly in generic subs like AskReddit, eli5, showerthoughts, as well as some odder ones like HotAsianMilfs (unsurprising), weddingplanning and identifythisfont. A lot of the Askreddit threads seem to be about sex. Another favorite sub is progresspics, where he semi-aggressively hunts for opportunities to drop a bit of backstory (lost 100+ pounds in 7 months due to illness and surgery). There's also this gem https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/31m4ah/if_you_could_have_one_statistic_displayed_above/cq2uqx6/?context=3 Also included is a bit of random pointless white-knighting...
dustoff_avenger-joined 2015-04-07T17:29:50+00:00, first posted 2015-04-07T17:30:54+00:00 in the RALLY VINCENT thread. Possibly the most active r/lcqp user, she (gender mentioned in post history) started posting with the creation of lcqp and continued to post for a while after Shade's death, with her last post on Mon Jun 29 16:15:50 2015 UTC. Once again her post history includes a lot of sex-related subs and threads, as well as TwoX (a cringy sub where random men praise women for getting an abortion like you'd praise your 10 year old for going to the corner store on his own for the first time, apparently...). She also seems to be openly lesbian or bi. Also common are politics- and military-related posts and posts about her job, which is apparently some form of military pilot.
This post mentions post history I'm not sure I saw in her actually current... post history: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/38owbz/tgif_redditors_who_have_the_day_off_how_are_you/cs0kfzz/?context=3 Like RoP there may be posts still on threads that aren't on their profiles, self-note to google search these usernames too Also this. https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/396m5a/assuming_that_reddit_is_used_for_secret/
Also mentioned is sex with Jerro, a post on KotakuinAction, jerbs, more pointless whiteknighting...
She's referred to as "Kimmy" by lcqp.
As of June 3 2017, she's returned as curator of r/lcqp-out-of-africa.
lcqp- joined Apr 4 21:01:28 2015 UTC, first post Apr 4 21:15:56 2015 UTC, last post is the "new server" thread on Jun 9 17:14:29 2015 UTC with the last post before that being Apr 18 13:09:17 2015 UTC. Last post before that is his one post in r/lcqp at 2015-04-07T17:41:47+00:00, edited same day T21:35:40+00:00. Once again there's plenty of military posts and sex posts, with a bit of whiteknighting, though unlike the others he seems to have quite a... problematic sense of humor. Also Death Note and Sailor Moon. Apparently he's old. One of his more recent posts before vanishing describes his "former employer"'s death, clearly referring to RoP.
i__i__i__i__i__hah- TwoX post, check, sex posts (with a particular focus on pegging), check, military posts, check... Whiteknighting, check... I think this might just be a common trait among military types, who tend to lean conservative and also be concerned with protecting "civilians", but having it pop up in the post history of every single person in this sub makes them look closer to a group of sockpuppets. Aside from being almost disgustingly cringy. Jesus While we're talking about circlejerks, bitching about religion also seems to be a common trait with this group... Anyway, i__hah was apparently deployed overseas in 1976 prior to meeting their wife, is old, etc. They have the longest post history of any /lcqp user, as you'd expect from their earlier registration date... amusingly, further back in their history (around April 1st?) they claim they usually abandon accounts after hitting 1000 karma to shake off trolls. The account has posts going up to two months after that and sits at over 3000 karma. I'm half-tempted to say the death post was simply a way to end the persona and abandon the account, as is theorized with Milo, but the other users' reactions to it seem sincere.
I_am_flat_sam: Joined Wed Apr 8 11:31:18 2015 UTC. Has less than a page of posts, first being the Vietnamese reply made Wed Apr 8 11:37:07 2015 UTC to RALLY VINCENT... which doesn't show up on the thread.
Next post is the one that actually shows up on RALLY VINCENT, posted Wed Apr 8 11:52:33 2015 UTC.
The user returns in June to post in i__hah's death thread (the Vietnamese text here apparently just translates to "goodbye, my friend", and then posts a handful of times in r/balisong (a type of butterfly knife), r/xray (sub for shopping picturs of attractive women so their nipples show through their clothes... yep), and r/DCcomics, over the course of a week. Last post Thu Jun 11 11:45:13 2015 UTC.
phelan_md: Joined Fri Apr 10 16:51:51 2015 UTC with only one post, to the RALLY VINCENT thread on Fri Apr 10 16:53:49 2015 UTC.
I've got this box of band-aids and tampons. You guys interested?
Doc, +1PA, +4MT
My best quess is they're medical support, ie a "doc"(tor). Tampons are sometimes used to plug up a bullet wound or a bloody nose in a pinch.
AyoDende: Joined Sun Apr 19 02:48:49 2015 UTC, posted once, Sun Apr 19 02:57:00 2015 UTC to we roll thread:
Halvidarx2 +6 +2MT (2 Poor English laddies who feel upon bad times. Both class 1 plus trauma)
Similar jargon used to the "doc" character phelan_md while talking about injuries. The grammar seems rather worse than md's, however, though of course it's difficult to tell from only one post each.
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New Post has been published on Cloudlight
New Post has been published on https://cloudlight.biz/manappuram-home-finance-taps-nucleus-software/
Manappuram Home Finance taps Nucleus Software
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The Home Based Business Explosion Is Upon Us!
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Evolution of Home Based totally Business
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Owner Finance College Fund
I love owner financing. There is no better manner for a regular character to create wealth than owner financing.
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Time and again Once more!
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Website Design – Hardware and Software Tools You May Need
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Every other attention for hardware need to be a few form of backup hard power or detachable USB memory stick(s).
It’s far vital which you again up all your internet site facts to a detachable power within the event your computer crashes, is broken or is stolen. Whilst you create internet site files, maximum of your facts will be stored at the website hosting servers however, in many instances, you will have many other “builder documents” that usually never make it to the website hosting servers. in case you lose this records you may be compelled to start from scratch in lots of instances. Some other piece of hardware that many forget approximately is a HD Video Camcorder. if you plan to encompass video in your web page, you have to be investing in something half of decent; you can usually pick up an excellent video digicam that still captures “still pix” for beneath $500.00.
When it comes to software program wished, this can be incredibly greater complex, again depending on what your web site design goals are. At the very least, you’ll need a few sort of text editing software program, FTP (file transfer software program), photos introduction software and then a diffusion of different equipment as you progress.
Right here are some of the most common topics you have to consider while making plans the design of your internet site product.
Laptop
Do you currently have a laptop which can procedure massive documents (i.E. – video files) speedy and successfully?
Website SERVER
Are you planning to host your personal website portal? In that case, do you understand what form of hardware and server software program you may want?
Are you making plans to create your very own website photographs or edit pics? Do you have the vital software program (i.E. – Adobe Photoshop or Photo Studio)?
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Can Spinal Adjustments Relieve Lower Back Pain? Dr. Mercola By Dr. Mercola The American Chiropractic Association states at any one time, nearly 31 million Americans suffer from lower back pain.1 In 2012, the American Physical Therapy Association surveyed and found more than one-third of adults were affected, but two-thirds of them chose not to seek treatment.2 As the population of the U.S. was nearly 313 million at the time of the survey,3 an estimated 103 million were suffering lower back pain, and both national and state level estimates of the prevalence of lower back show it's rising. On any given day, 2 percent of the U.S. population is disabled by back pain.4 Chronic back pain may occur consistently, or you may experience times of remission when the pain dissipates and you move about freely without discomfort. Chronic back pain, defined as being present for 12 weeks or more,5 occurs in approximately 20 percent of people.6 Most cases of lower back pain are related to a mechanical issue. In other words, the pain is related to a musculoskeletal condition, and not the result of an underlying medical condition such as kidney stones, cancer, arthritis or fracture.7 Fortunately, many musculoskeletal issues may be successfully addressed without the use of surgery or dangerous drugs. A recent study has demonstrated the average person experienced a one-point reduction in lower back pain following spinal manipulation.8 Spinal Manipulation May Reduce Lower Back Pain and Improve Function The study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), was a meta-analysis of 26 medical studies involving 1,700 patients with lower back pain between 2011 and 2017.9 The spinal manipulation was performed by a variety of professionals, including chiropractors, physical therapists, osteopaths and massage therapists.10 The results from this study demonstrate a modest improvement in pain following a spinal manipulation, which is approximately the same amount of pain relief as over-the-counter pain relievers or non-inflammatory non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) medications. The researchers also found spinal manipulation had an effect on overall function. The average person reported greater ease and comfort in their day-to-day activities, such as walking, sleeping or turning in bed. These results are not considered "clinically meaningful improvement," according to Dr. Wolf Mehling, from Osher Center for Integrative Medicine.11 However, while these results appear to be modest in nature, it is important to recognize the results are an average, and that the participants only underwent manipulation. In other words, they were not given any additional rehabilitative exercises designed to maintain functional movement of the spine gained after manipulation, or to reduce inflammation in the area of pain. None of the studies found serious side effects from the treatment. Some patients did experience slight muscle stiffness or headache following the adjustment.12 Dr. Richard Deyo, an internist and professor of evidence-based medicine at the Oregon Health and Science University, wrote an accompanying editorial, saying:13 "Spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) is a controversial treatment option for lower back pain, perhaps in part because it is most frequently administered by chiropractors. Chiropractic therapy is not widely accepted by some traditional health care practitioners. This may be, at least in part, because some early practitioners of chiropractic care rejected the germ theory, immunizations and other scientific advances." Early traditional medical practitioners also rejected germ theory, immunizations and other scientific advances. The controversy may also be, in part, due to the fact that chiropractors often rely on nutrition and exercise to alleviate musculoskeletal issues, rather than prescribing dangerous drugs or surgery that may do more harm than good. What Causes Back Pain? Determining the cause of your back pain is as important as the treatment you choose. If you don't treat the underlying cause of the pain, it may simply return. One common cause is an imbalance of muscle contraction and stretching that results from long hours of sitting at your job, commuting and relaxing at home in the evening hours. Sitting shortens the iliopsoas muscles that connect your bones in the lumbar region of the spine to the top of your femur. This may cause severe pain when standing, as the change in position pulls your lower back forward. Many end up going through medical procedures to "fix" this problem, or taking drugs for long periods of time. Pain can also be triggered by a simple activity or movement, such as bending over to pick up an object from the floor. However, this type of pain often originates in the prior months from poor posture, obesity or poor physical condition facilitated by inactivity. Each of these factors places stress on the lower back that it was not designed to withstand. Over time, like any other overuse injury, the area becomes weakened and the muscles inflamed, triggering pain and discomfort. One way to help prevent lower back pain triggered by weak muscles or poor posture is to develop firm abdominal muscles that act like a built-in corset, holding your gut and stabilizing your spine and discs. This is an effective method of treating the cause of lower back pain, instead of just the symptom of pain. Using drugs to mask pain, or muscle relaxers to mask an inflammatory response, will not change the cause and it's likely you'll experience recurring pain. Spinal Fusion is Not the Answer Spinal fusion surgery rarely cures chronic back pain. In the past 15 years, the number of spinal fusions performed has exploded by nearly 600 percent, while the rate of success has actually plummeted.14 Insurance reimbursement for procedures and rising cost of surgical hardware have contributed to the financial growth. A case study in Florida demonstrated how fees for this procedure grew from $47 million a year to $2 billion, adjusted for inflation.15 Originally, fusions were used to treat an unstable spine after a catastrophic accident that left the spine fractured, so patients were not bedridden for two months while the vertebrae healed. At some point in the 1980s the surgery was also used for degenerative disc disease, to stabilize the area through a period of instability. Lower back pain associated with degenerative disc disease is often linked with excessive stress on the spinal discs, resulting in tearing or bulging and pain. Triggers include excess weight, poor posture and cigarette smoking.16 However, eliminating motion in the area of disc degeneration does not affect the original cause and therefore you remain at risk for continued damage to your spine. Dangers of Using Drugs to Mask Back Trouble Traditional health practitioners are often quick to prescribe pain medications, including NSAIDs and even opioids, for chronic back pain. While the drugs may provide immediate pain relief, the effect is temporary. Unfortunately, the pain relief may tempt you to over exert inflamed muscles and, in some cases, you may suffer hyperalgesia, or an increased sensitivity to the pain. Drugs and opioids mask the pain, but do not address the cause of the problem, leaving you in worse shape than before you took the medication. While there is reason to use a short-term course of medication in severe cases, the best form of treatment is to address the cause and change the way you use your body to affect a long-term improvement. Moreover, drugs come with severe side effects, even those dispensed over-the-counter. NSAIDs may increase your risk of heart attack, stroke and other cardiovascular problems, as well as severe gastrointestinal bleeding, increased blood pressure and kidney damage.17 As significant as those side effects are, opioid prescriptions come at an even higher cost. Opioid painkillers, like OxyContin, commonly prescribed for back pain, are highly addictive and one of the most commonly abused prescription drugs today. Back pain has actually become one of the primary triggers for the growing opioid addiction epidemic. The bottom line is that painkillers come with severe health risks, especially when combined with other medications, such as muscle relaxers and anti-seizure medication. Using pain medications also potentially sets up a vicious cycle, during which you may over exert yourself while the pain is masked, causing more injury to inflamed muscles. Effective Strategies to Reduce Back Pain Without Drugs There are effective strategies to reduce your risk of developing lower back pain, or preventing further damage, all without using drugs. Your physician may recommend painkillers to dull the ache in your lower back, but without making permanent changes to the way you use your back, you'll likely not get rid of the underlying problem. Spinal manipulation has been a safe and effective practice used for the last century.18 While it is an effective means of reducing pain in your lower back, a full evaluation and follow-up exercises may also help prevent lower back pain as you learn how to use your back and lower extremities properly, including lifting, walking, sitting and standing. Even if you aren't currently experiencing back pain, I would advise you to consider the following treatment strategies to prevent an occurrence or recurrence of lower back pain: ✓ Regular stretching I strongly advise you to engage in a regular stretching program. My favorite is active isolated stretching (AIS), developed by Aaron Mattes. It's completely different from the traditional type of stretching, and is a great way to get flexibility back into your system. ✓ Stop smoking Smoking reduces blood flow to your lower spine, increasing the risk of disc degeneration. ✓ Optimize your vitamin D level Get enough vitamin D from sun exposure daily, as vitamin D helps keep your bones, including your spine, strong. ✓ Maintain optimal weight Carrying extra weight, especially around your middle, increases stress on the lower back and changes your center of gravity, also changing your posture. ✓ Protect your back You use your back muscles with most body movements, so it is important to protect your spine, especially while lifting. Do not bend forward to lift, but rather lower your body to the ground by bending your hips and knees while keeping your back straight. Use the muscles in your thighs and hips to rise again, holding the object close to your body to distribute the weight more evenly. Don't lift a heavy object above your shoulder level and avoid twisting your body while carrying a heavy object. ✓ Mind your posture You also protect your back by using good body mechanics to sit, stand, walk and sleep. It may feel like it is second nature to perform these daily activities, but when done incorrectly, you may be increasing chronic stress to your lower back. Practice proper posture while sitting and standing every hour. Pay careful attention to consciously suck in your belly and rotate your pelvis slightly up. At the same time, keep your head back, with your ears over your shoulders and your shoulder blades pinched. This posture will keep your spine in proper alignment. Do this every hour while sitting and standing, holding muscles tight, for several minutes. ✓ Stay hydrated Your muscles and spinal discs depend on water to maintain good health and reduce inflammation. ✓ Wear low-heeled shoes High heels may make a fashion statement, but you'll likely pay the price after just a short time as high heels put your hips and lower back into poor alignment, placing stress on your lower back. ✓ Switch positions Remaining in place for long periods of time can increase the experience of stiffness in your muscles and reduce flexibility in your joints. Switch positions in your chair frequently; check your posture and don't stay standing in one position for very long. Two Highly Effective Treatment and Preventive Strategies Two highly effective means of preventing lower back pain are closely related — staying active and practicing interrupted sitting may help to improve muscle strength and coordination, reduce stiffness and improve blood flow. Exercise and movement are two ends of the same spectrum. Exercise is important to raise your heart rate and improve muscle strength, while non-exercise movement is important for overall health. Both are also important to your back health. The benefits of exercising for 30 minutes or more each day may actually be counteracted by sitting for long periods of time. While you may not be able to avoid sitting at your desk at work, it is important to make accommodations to improve your cardiovascular and musculoskeletal health. At this time I believe it is important to be standing as much as possible during the day. Consider a modified desk at work where you can stand to work 50 minutes and sit for 10 minutes an hour, instead of standing 10 minutes and sitting 50. Balance boards can increase the amount of work your muscles do and increase circulation while standing. The benefits of standing and walking as much as possible during the day, using good posture, cannot be overstated. In fact, using these strategies was exactly how I eliminated my own back pain. Foundation Training Hits Back Pain Where It Starts I am convinced that non-exercise movement, or the way you move your body when doing everyday activities, may be the most important component of exercise. Dr. Eric Goodman is an expert in structural biomechanics. He developed Foundation Training, based on exercises that teach you how to optimize posture and reduce body pain. In this interview he discusses the importance of body position to your overall health. The secret to the program is simplicity — you don't need a gym or specialized equipment. By incorporating this series of powerful movements into your daily routine, you learn how to move better and use your body the way it was designed to be used. This reduces pain and discomfort, and significantly reduces your risk of overuse injuries. A major contributor to back pain is sitting for eight to 10 hours each day. Walking with good posture can maximize the benefits of movement and is foundational for optimal health. Using simple body weight exercises, you integrate muscle movement and elongate your core and posterior chain. These are the muscles that connect your pelvis through your lower back and up to your trapezius muscles in your upper back. By improving the power, coordination and integration of these muscles, you may alleviate many chronic musculoskeletal pain issues, including your lower back. This means Foundation Training will not only help lower back pain, but also train your muscles to work functionally and may help reduce other pain that results from poor posture or improper use. In the video below, Goodman walks you through three simple Foundation exercises to improve your posture.
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2 FTSE 250 growth stocks I’d buy and hold for the next five years
When you consider that it includes stock market dogs such as Debenhams and Mothercare — both having struggled to compete with online competitors — a lot of current investor hatred for the retail sector feels justified. Factor in fragile consumer confidence and you can see why so many businesses with a high street presence are worried about surviving, let alone thriving.
Nonetheless, I think there are a number of diamonds in the rough for investors willing to adopt the Foolish maxim of buying quality stocks for the long term and doing little else. Here are two examples.
Overseas expansion
Today’s pre-AGM update from JD Sports Fashion (LSE: JD) will no doubt please those who had the courage to invest in the company during the fairly frequent dips in its share price over recent months. In addition to reminding the market of JD’s record results for the previous financial year, executive chairman Peter Cowgill stated that management confidence in its prospects over 2018/19 had not altered since April. This was then followed by encouraging news on the £4.2bn-cap’s progress overseas.
In accordance with its target of opening an average of one site per week, 18 new stores have been unveiled across Europe over the period to 23 June. Another 16 stores have been added in the Asia Pacific region (including the company’s first forays into South Korea and Singapore), although 75% of these were conversions from fascias operated by partners. The recent purchase of US-based retail chain Finish Line is another example of just how much potential JD has in international markets.
In addition to the above, it’s also worth highlighting that the company’s finances remain robust with a net cash position of £130m at the end of the previous financial year. Most retailers would kill for this, hence why I continue to regard JD as an excellent hold for growth-focused investors.
That said, the 30% rise in value since the beginning of April means the shares aren’t the bargain they once were and are unlikely to gallop ahead between now and when interim numbers are delivered in September.
For those with a more value-focused approach, I suggest taking a closer look at another FTSE 250 constituent.
Super cheap
I continue to be blown away by the market’s dislike for Superdry (LSE: SDRY) given that its ‘problems’ appear nowhere near as pronounced as other retailers. The stock has now fallen no less than 45% from the all-time highs reached in January, leaving it on a valuation of just 10 times forecast earnings for 2018/19. That looks screamingly cheap to me.
Sure, May’s pre-close trading statement could have been better. A decline in full-year gross margins, partly the result of cutting prices in an attempt to lower inventory levels, wasn’t going to please the market. Nor was the cut in revenue guidance for the next 12 months as a result of “ongoing challenging conditions in stores“.
Relative to peers, however, Superdry appears in good shape. Cash flow looks healthy, dividends look safe, management is continuing to invest for the future and the company is debt free.
The business confirms full-year figures on July 5. While a further drop can’t be ruled out, I’d be surprised if it was significant, simply because the market’s treatment has already felt unnecessarily harsh. As such, my finger remains poised over the ‘buy‘ button.
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Two top growth stocks outside the FTSE 100
Paul Summers has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Superdry. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
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20 Fantasy Hockey Thoughts
Every Sunday until the start of the 2018-19 regular season, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".
Writers: Michael Clifford, Ian Gooding, Cam Robinson, and Dobber
1. The Isles are blessed to have a replacement top line center waiting in the weeds. Being able to slide Mathew Barzal up the depth chart won't make losing John Tavares any easier but it's a luxury that very few teams have. I was asked recently how Tavares’ decision will impact Barzal. If he leaves, does the elevation up the lineup push the 20-year-old soon-to-be Calder Trophy winner into superstar status, or does it hurt to lose out on playing with such a great talent?
The answer is layered. Tavares leaving will indeed force the upcoming sophomore into a top line role. He’ll be afforded the pick of the winger bunch. But does that mean he simply inherits Anders Lee and Josh Bailey? It seems safe to assume will be Lee on the left side. His style is unique on the team and remains unchallenged for the foreseeable future. The right side is a little hazier. Jordan Eberle lined up next to Barzal for over 70 percent of his even-strength ice time last season and bore strong results. Barzal was on the ice for 41 or Eberle’s 49 even-strength points. Maybe it’s Eberle bumping Bailey down the depth chart next season. And that would coincide with Bailey’s need for Tavares to prop him up.
If Tavares leaves, Barzal will become the No.1 priority for opposing defensive schemes. The kid is an amazing talent, so that focus was bound to come sooner or later, but the insulation Tavares provides at even-strength was massive in Barzal ripping it up as a rookie. The second season can be daunting for some players and losing the team’s best player and captain won’t help that out in any way for Barzal. For that matter, it won’t be too helpful for anyone on the Islanders.
Who knows, maybe we won’t even have to worry about all this (Ed. note: Tavares is currently focusing on negotiations with the Islanders regarding an extension). (june16)
2. How much, or how little, will Rasmus Dahlin cut into Rasmus Ristolainen production in Buffalo? For the life of me, I cannot fathom an 18-year old stepping in to run a top power play unit in the NHL, no matter the level of prodigiousness. For at least this season, I am assuming that Ristolainen’s top PP job is safe. And that’s important, because all his fantasy value outside of hits/blocked shots is derived from the power play; 59 percent (!) of his career production has been with the man advantage. If he loses that, in non-real time stats leagues, he’s waiver wire fodder. (june15)
3. Over the last three seasons, Rickard Rakell has a rate of 1.18 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. To put that into perspective, Alex Ovechkin is at 1.15, Brad Marchand is at 1.10, and it’s tied with Vladimir Tarasenko. This is over 220 games. It’s not a small sample.
Yet, Rakell is never discussed among the top-end goal scorers in the game, is he? We hear about Nikita Kucherov, Jamie Benn, Filip Forsberg, Tyler Seguin, and Steven Stamkos, all players whom Rakell has a higher goals/60 at 5v5 over the last three years. Yet, we never, ever, hear about Rakell discussed as a top finisher. That’s an advantage for fantasy owners wanting to draft him.
Here’s the issue: The Ducks need someone who can finish on the other side of that top line. It’s all well and good that Rakell can be relied upon for at least 30 goals, and maybe could push 40, but without an influx of assists, he won’t reach the true upper echelon of fantasy value like some of the players named above – 35 assists are good, but 45 assists would be nice. All the same, Rakell is one of the top finishers in the NHL. For those in hits leagues, he gives you lots of those as well. He won’t be a top-50 pick and provides the perfect value opportunity. (june12)
4. At first glance, it sure looks like Montreal paid an awfully steep price to Arizona for a player (Max Domi) coming off a nine-goal season – four of which came via the empty-net variety. However, it had become increasingly clearer that Alex Galchenyuk was not in the long-term plans for the Canadiens. His inability to play the middle of the ice resulted in the organization overpaying to land Jonathan Drouin a year ago (another player who can't play the middle of the ice).
Domi and Galchenyuk are comparable in many ways. Galchenyuk is 24. Domi is 23. The two of them have played at virtually the same production levels in their young careers – both clicking at 0.61 points-per-game.
One thing is certain, though, Montreal gave up the more dangerous goal-scorer. Domi has 36 career goals over 222 NHL contests – 0.16 goals-per-game. Galchenyuk has 108 in 408 games – 0.26 goals-per-game. Both players saw their shooting percentages dip last season but Domi has never been much of a goal-scoring threat in the NHL. Meanwhile, Galchenyuk clicked at just 8.9 percent last season – between four and eight percent lower than any time in the prior three campaigns. (june16)
5. Overall, I think both players will continue to be what we thought they were before the trade. The Coyotes seem more likely to use Galchenyuk at center than the Habs were in spite of already having several centers, for what that’s worth. You could argue that he was unlucky last season, shooting at only 8.9 percent, which would have resulted in nearly 30 goals had he shot closer to his career average of 12.4 percent.
Meanwhile, Domi sounded like he needed a change of scenery, which might come at the right time for the Canadiens, since he now enters his potential breakout fourth NHL season. These are both rebuilding teams (or, at least, supposed to be rebuilding), so it could simply be a matter of which player fits in better with his new club. For all we know, that player could be Domi just as well as it could be Galchenyuk.
In terms of general fantasy hockey value, I’d pick Galchenyuk over Domi – just like the deal. But, as I’ve said before, that may depend on the league format. Galchenyuk is ranked number 97 on Dobber’s Top 300 Keeper League Skaters, with Domi right behind at number 99. So, as much fun as it is to blame Marc Bergevin, the difference between these players might not be as large as you think. (june17)
6. So, it sure looks like Galchenyuk will continue to get looks in the middle of the ice in the desert. Coyotes’ GM John Chayka: “He’s had success playing the center position … I don’t think we’d make this trade if we didn’t think he had the ability to play center.”
The first thing that came to my mind when I read those comments from Chayka was, "What does this mean for Dylan Strome and Clayton Keller?" If the Coyotes plan to line Gally up at center, we'd have to assume it's in the top six. Derek Stepan seems like a lock to get the other top-six pivot position in the short term. Keller played primarily on the wing next to Stepan last season but has long projected as a pivot. Strome played his season in the AHL but has played the middle of the ice exclusively for years.
One of Galchenyuk, Keller or Strome won't be centers long-term. Could be beneficial for their fantasy value in leagues that count positions. Regardless, I like this deal for Arizona and I love the direction they're trending. It's not a horrific deal for Montreal, which has to be considered a step in the right direction. Right? (june16)
7. Even though last season was Milan Lucic’s worst since 2009-10, there is still a chance he can rebound from a sub-40-point season and a single-digit power-play-point total, either in Edmonton or somewhere else. The lack of power-play points was not related to lack of opportunity, as he was regularly used on the first-unit power play. In fact, Lucic went nearly three months without a single power-play point.
Of course, Lucic’s fantasy hockey value should be considered very up in the air at the moment, considering that the Oilers seem to be attempting to trade him. There’s a lot yet to happen this offseason, so it’s too early to pinpoint exactly what his fantasy value would be. (june17)
8. The Carolina Hurricanes are at the top of my wish list if John Carlson doesn’t re-sign with the Capitals. We’ve seen the reports that some shake-ups are coming to Carolina. It seems likely one of (if not both of) Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin will be traded.
This is a team with loads of cap space both this year and next, even factoring in extension for the likes of Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen, and Sebastian Aho. They already have Martin Necas in the pipeline, and Valentin Zykov seemed to fit in well at the end of the year. They also have the second overall pick at this year’s Entry Draft, which should be a game-breaking winger. Assuming they bring back some scoring when they trade one (or two) defensemen, they’ll need a reliable puck-mover that can quarterback a power play. Carlson seems to fit that bill.
We have a young team that should improve their scoring talent for next year. It is also a team that, with good goaltending for the first time this decade, could threaten for a playoff position, and has a lot of cap space at their disposal. It seems like the perfect fit for Carlson from a fantasy perspective. (june14)
9. The reported Coyotes/Oliver Ekman-Larsson contract-extension agreement should give fantasy owners a gauge of what to expect for Drew Doughty when he’s a UFA next year. If he doesn’t re-sign with the Kings and hits the open market, there will be a bidding war, and anything close to OEL’s AAV will be a pipe dream. Doughty’s cap league owners should be budgeting for $10-million a season and figuring out whether he’s worth that number in your setup. (june14)
10. A somewhat minor trade this week as the Kings acquired (re-acquired?) goaltender Peter Budaj from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for forward Andy Andreoff. Budaj will presumably be the backup to Jonathan Quick in 2018-19, while Andreoff will … well I’m not sure what Tampa wants to do with him.
This also, presumably, means that Louis Domingue will be the backup for Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2018-19. Domingue was acquired early in the season but only played a dozen games for the Bolts as Budaj was the primary backup. Domingue is an RFA but he will be cheap so this may be a matter of saving a couple hundred thousand on the backup goalie. Anyone with Jack Campbell shares in dynasty leagues, you’re going to need an injury to someone ahead of him now. Kudos to those who hung on to their Domingue shares, though. (june14)
11. Remember those trade rumors about P.K. Subban? Remember how those rumors never, ever made any sense in any possible context outside of an incredibly lopsided trade like, say, Adam Larsson for Taylor Hall?
Predators GM David Poile told TSN’s Pierre LeBrun explicitly that Subban will not be traded. I know we heard that from Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin once upon a time but there’s one key difference between the two general managers: Poile knows how to build a successful roster.
For those hoping the reigns would be turned over to Roman Josi, no such luck just yet. Nashville is still in it to win and trading a former Norris Trophy winner (and current Norris Trophy finalist) who is still on the right side of 30 years old just isn’t in the cards. Moving on. (june14)
12. Corey Perry’s cap hit currently sits at $8.63 million, which makes him difficult for the Ducks to trade. With diminishing returns, Perry is not someone you’d want to invest in a salary cap league. But, does he still hold value in other fantasy hockey leagues?
It’s hard to believe that it’s already been seven years since Perry was fantasy hockey’s top right wing and the Hart Trophy winner. That season, he dominated numerous categories, including goals (50), assists (48), penalty minutes (104), power-play points (31), and shots on goal (290). Since then, the only season he has come close to that total is 2013-14, when he posted 43 goals, 39 assists, a plus-32 ranking, and 280 shots on goal.
Things have gotten decidedly worse since then, though. The 2017-18 season was the second consecutive campaign in which Perry’s goal and point totals declined. Perry has dropped from 62 points to 53 points to 49 points, but his goal total has sagged even further, from 34 goals to 19 goals to 17 goals. The one silver lining is that Perry’s points-per-game average improved slightly from 0.65 in 2016-17 to 0.69, due to his 11 games missed in 2017-18. Moreover, his goals-per-game was around the same. Still, the points-per-game total placed him in the same company as Ryan Spooner, Evander Kane, David Krejci, Bo Horvat, and Nazem Kadri. Useful fantasy players – but none currently carry the same star power as Perry.
Perry’s average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues in 2017-18 was 64.2. Given the group of players around him, Perry should definitely be drafted outside of the top 100 in 2017-18, assuming his situation remains the same. He’s still a useful player in many fantasy leagues but be careful that you’re not paying a premium for the name. (june13)
13. So, if the Sens have no choice but to trade Mike Hoffman, then they won’t be receiving full market value. So, what about Hoffman fantasy hockey owners??? … (meekly raises hand) … For one, we have to let due process play out. It’s too early to assume that something like this will ruin Hoffman’s career. If the guy in the next section could revive his NHL career, then theoretically so could Hoffman even if the allegations are true. Stating the obvious, though, this news won’t help Hoffman’s fantasy value in any way. But, a trade could potentially help it. That trade will be difficult to orchestrate before the draft, given the uncertainty of this situation.
One final thought. Even though I am attempting to cover this story from a fantasy hockey perspective, I understand that harassment – even online – is a much greater societal issue than a fantasy team. And, nothing could compare to the sadness of losing a child. We know that the Karlssons were victims of both this past season, so hopefully they are able to move forward from what has been an unbelievably trying year. (june13)
14. Kevin Fiala is a favourite of mine and many here at DobberHockey. Be wary of his ADP, though. It’s easy to envision him being on every ‘sleeper’ list from St. John’s to Orange Country and thus inflating his ADP.
The young Predator has the look of a true top-six scorer thus far in his young career. Though there have been fits and starts, he really broke through in the 2017 postseason. His 2017-18 campaign, the first real full season he’s had, was a success as he posted nearly 50 points while playing just over 15 minutes per game. He’s locked into his top-six role but the power play opportunity may not be there as his team does have top-end scoring wingers ahead of him. All the same, entering his age-22 season, this forward has the look of a perennial 30-goal scorer. He’s also starting to get noticed in fantasy circles and profiles as someone who will be such a fantasy darling in the preseason that his ADP gets driven up. (june12)
15. Though I’m sure Sabres fans were hoping for more from Sam Reinhart by this point, he’s averaged 48 points per 82 games over the last three years, having done so on the second-lowest scoring team in that span (Vegas excluded). To do that at a young age on such a poor offensive team is a testament to his talent, not a knock against him.
What will determine his value next year is his role. If he can maintain his winger status with Jack Eichel as his pivot, along with the top PP minutes, he can be a 60-point player. However, if they decide to move him to the third line to try and lengthen the scoring in the lineup as they did at times last year, it might be another 45- or 50-point season. The nice thing is it won’t be an expensive price at the draft table, so it’ll be a gamble worth taking. (june12)
16. Being that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has played six 82-game seasons (often less because, well, injuries), is a first overall pick and has yet to produce a 25-goal or 60-point season probably makes his keeper/dynasty owners a little, shall we say, upset. Hold on to some hope, though.
RNH returned to the Oilers lineup on March 3. He was moved alongside Connor McDavid on March 10, where he stayed basically for the rest of the season, a span of 13 games. In those 13 games, RNH played over 20 minutes a night, managed 15 points, and landed just under three shots on goal per game.
The question is: does he stay there? Leon Draisaitl spent some time on the top line but did not stay. Milan Lucic spent some time on the top line but did not stay. It was basically a rotating door on either side of McDavid all year long. RNH may not even be in an Oilers uniform next year. If he is, though, he won’t be expensive in drafts. He’ll be worth taking the gamble.(june12)
17. A few days ago the San Jose Sharks signed the leading scorer of the Finnish Liiga, Antti Suomela. The undrafted Suomela came from out of nowhere in 2016-17, when he scored 45 points in 58 games as a second-year player. Last season, he proved it was no fluke when he picked up 60 points in 59 games to lead all players. The Sharks had signed another high-scoring 24-year-old late bloomer named Joonas Donskoi two years ago, and Suomela’s numbers exceed Donskoi’s. The latter stepped right into the lineup and posted 36 points as a NHL rookie, so could Suomela do the same but better? One drawback I noticed was that Suomela’s numbers seriously dropped off in the postseason, so if he stumbles under pressure he’s not going to make the team out of training camp. So, therein lies the risk. Otherwise, I really like him. (june11)
18. On Ilya Kovalchuk: I like the Kings as a fit but the Sharks? This is a team that I think has done a great job transitioning from a bunch of grandpas to bringing in new blood. Filtering out Patrick Marleau and rolling back the ice time of Paul Martin and Joel Ward, while at the same time bringing in Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc, and adding Evander Kane (let’s not get into the contract – that’s another topic!). Adding Kovalchuk is a positive for any team … but maybe not this one. The Sharks should be focusing on defensemen. I really like the forward corps they’ve put together now and there are a couple of prospects I like who could slot in there a year or two from now. (june11)
19. My favorite team for Kovalchuk is the Islanders. I like this fit for both sides. As bad as this team was last season, we can all agree (?) that they were worse than expected. Worse than on paper – and that’s not even factoring in Mathew Barzal as a sudden superstar. If John Tavares signs, it helps the decision. Imagine:
Anders Lee – Tavares – Josh Bailey Kovalchuk – Barzal – Jordan Eberle Andrew Ladd – Brock Nelson – Anthony Beauvillier
With Josh Ho-Sang ready to make the jump, and Ryan Pulock ready to seize the PP reins, add in a new coach and this team is a dark horse. But, it starts with Kovalchuk. I know you may have some reservations about ‘Loophole Lou’ (Lamoriello) actually getting Kovalchuk back but, according to Lighthouse Hockey, Kovalchuk has a lot of respect for Lamoriello and is appreciative of how hard Lou worked in order to free him up to return to Russia. (june11)
Pulock’s outlook also depends on a lot of factors. Does he take over the top PP billing from Nick Leddy? Does John Tavares re-sign? Can both Josh Bailey and Anders Lee come close to repeating their brilliant 2017-18 campaigns? None of this is a certainty.
One thing that is likely is that Pulock remains a shooting machine. With his first full year under his belt and just scratching his potential, there isn’t much reason to think he has a shooting decline. As long as he keeps shooting, he should be fine. (june15)
20. BTW: DobberHockey writer and editor Cam Robinson released his Top-130 rankings this past Thursday for the upcoming NHL Draft. Cam has been working tirelessly all year to end up at this point, so I would recommend going through it thoroughly to get a read on more than just the top-end guys. And, don't forget to grab your copy of Dobber's Prospects Report from the Dobber Shop! (june15)
Have a good week, folks!!
from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts-28/
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Top buys for a FTSE 100 starter portfolio for 2018
Every quarter I take a look at the top FTSE 100 companies in each of the index’s 10 industries to see how they shape up as a potential starter portfolio.
The table below shows the 10 heavyweights and their valuations based on forecast 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and dividend yields.
Company Industry Share price at 1/1/18 (p) P/E Yield (%) BAE Systems (LSE: BA) Industrials 573 13.1 3.9 British American Tobacco Consumer Goods 5,018 16.2 4.0 GlaxoSmithKline Health Care 1,323 12.3 6.0 HSBC Holdings Financials 767 13.9 5.2 National Grid Utilities 875 14.5 5.3 Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO) Basic Materials 3,942 12.7 4.7 Royal Dutch Shell Oil & Gas 2,509 15.8 5.6 Sage Technology 798 23.0 2.2 Tesco Consumer Services 209 16.5 2.3 Vodafone Telecommunications 235 24.8 5.7
Before looking at which individual companies might be particularly good buys today, let’s get a feel for the overall value. The table below shows average P/Es and yields for the group as a whole for the last four quarters and five years.
P/E Yield (%) January 2018 16.3 4.5 October 2017 16.5 4.5 July 2017 16.4 4.6 April 2017 16.8 4.6 January 2017 17.0 4.4 January 2016 13.7 6.0 January 2015 13.5 4.8 January 2014 12.7 4.5 January 2013 11.7 4.6
My rule of thumb is that an average P/E below 10 is bargain territory, 10-14 is good value and above 14 starts to move towards expensive.
As you can see, the P/E has come down to 16.3 from 17 in January last year but remains above my ‘good value’ band. This doesn’t mean the group of companies can’t deliver a good return for investors, just that it could take longer to achieve than if the stocks were bought at a lower valuation.
Top picks
I’ve recently written about the attractive rating of National Grid, which has a relatively low P/E for a utility and a great dividend yield. GlaxoSmithKline, with the lowest P/E and highest yield of all, also looks excellent value to me and to my Foolish colleague Alan Oscroft, who has named it his FTSE 100 stock pick for the next decade.
Two others stocks I also rate as particularly good ‘buy’ candidates today are BAE Systems and Rio Tinto.
Solid defence
BAE’s shares are 15% below their 52-week high and the P/E of 13.1 compares with a range of between 13.9 and 14.4 at my last four quarterly reviews. The dividend yield of 3.9% isn’t spectacular but is very decent and I have to go back to my October 2016 review to find it above the current level.
In its last trading update, three months ago, BAE said the US defence market outlook remains positive and export campaigns in all domains continue to be well supported by the UK government. The company also announced organisational changes and workforce reductions that will drive competitiveness, accelerate technology innovation and deliver continued improvements in efficiency and operational excellence. I believe the stock remains a solid buy in the defence sector.
Mining a rich vein
In contrast to the lacklustre performance of BAE’s shares, those of mining giant Rio Tinto are at a 52-week high. Furthermore, they’ve more than doubled since the last time I highlighted the stock for you, at 1,643p back in January 2016. At that time, the P/E was 11.1. Despite the huge rise in the shares since, the P/E today continues to be attractive at 12.7. This is because earnings have improved dramatically.
Rio has restructured its business significantly since over-expanding and making some ill-judged acquisitions at the height of the last mining cycle. New management has a relentless focus on cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. This bodes well for shareholders and with its long-life, low-cost mines, I rate Rio a sound buy for long-term investors.
Five best buys
Of course, there are many more companies in the FTSE 100 than the 10 industry heavyweights I focus on in these reviews. And the Motley Fool's experts have scouted the entire index to identify the very best blue-chip businesses with the ability to deliver top-notch performance through thick and thin.
Have BAE and Rio made the cut for our experts' top five? You can discover the answer and read their analysis of all five companies in this exclusive FREE report.
The report comes with no obligation, so CLICK HERE now for your free copy.
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A dirt-cheap, boring FTSE 100 stock that could make you rich
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G A Chester has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended GlaxoSmithKline. The Motley Fool UK has recommended HSBC Holdings, Royal Dutch Shell B, and Sage Group. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
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