#i had a bug where i was reset to level 1 after levelling to 28 and when i speed levelled up from increased exp i got double perk points
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i’m looking at steam reviews for the new planet coaster and reading comments on them and the amount of people saying things near identical to this are insane
since when is a 1.0 full release expected to have bugs and issues ?? since when do we accept this ?? a full release is meant to have zero bugs and issues, actually. it’s not a beta, it’s not early access, it should be Finished, polished, cleaned up of all that stuff, ready to receive updates with new content if the devs choose. i’m just gobsmacked that decades of games being busted on launch has just led us to people finding it so normal it’s expected.
you shouldn’t expect games to be fully functional…. you should expect to buy them at full price and then wait weeks or more for the problems to be ironed out…. apparently. according to these people
what happened to demanding better man. what the fuck happened. why y’all complacent now
#fray.txt#i’m so disappointed in GamersTM#even with datv like i’ve had mutuals with bugs so bad they fall thru the fall their rook resets to default they go BALD???#at least one mutual has had their saves go completely corrupt for no reason and were forced to restart after dozens of hours#i had a bug where i was reset to level 1 after levelling to 28 and when i speed levelled up from increased exp i got double perk points#like why is bullshit like this acceptable… why are buggy games full of issues okay now kshskssjsk#you shouldn’t expect to pay full price for a busted game btw. you deserve better. it’s ok to think you deserve better#fall thru the floor* oopsies
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1-35 AC Ask Game 😂
**this took so long I had to copy and paste each question into my notes app then answer them all WHEW
1. which tools/materials do you usually carry in your pockets?
All the tools but especially my wand :3
2. how many customization kits do you usually have at a time?
30 minimum, I do a lot of crafting for my island, so when it’s late night it’s good to have my number up after hours.
3. how did you choose your island name?
My homage to Kirby’s Dreamland. He’s by far my favorite Nintendo character since I was a kid.
4. what time of day do you usually play?
Early morning or late at night. I work 6 days a week at the least so when I’m off it’s all day!!
5. what part of your island did you terraform/decorate/landscape first?
The back of my island seemed the easiest to terraform first. I’m indecisive and have been changing paths and fencing on my mainland since I got terraforming.
6. Do you plan out areas of your island?
I have a aesthetic problem theme planned but as far as like mapping it out, no.
7. what’s your most and least favorite hourly music?
I don’t understand this question :(
8. what do you usually gift your villagers, if anything?
Items they look at in shops or things I’ve made. They’re mostly always appreciative.
9. do you wrap gifts to villagers/friends?
For friends >> villagers ... only my favorite villagers get special treatment lmao
10. do you write letters to your villagers?
Once as an eviction notice for Shari, I hated her and luckily she’s gone now.
11. where do you usually play (your desk, the couch, etc)?
My bed or couch sometimes at work on my break
12. do you use the drop-off box?
Yes for shells only tho
13. do you dig up fossils and hit rocks every day?
I’ll dig them up but I won’t assess them until the next day
14. how many times have you reset, if at all?
0 luckily I haven’t hit that point
15. do you find it easier to decorate indoors or landscape outdoors?
Indoors because I can use the editor thingy and see all angles.
16. who and/or what are some of your biggest inspirations?
🥺 not to be a fangirl but etce on youtube, pigeoncreamer and tiny library too.
17. how many hours have you spent on acnh?
250+ give or take
18. how often do you change your outfit?
Every five minutes stg
19. how many items are in your storage?
Too many
20. do you use the wands?
Always
21. which reactions do you keep in your reaction wheel?
Shocked, joy, distress, resignation, delight, sighing, pleased, bashfulness
22. how many nook miles do you usually have?
10,000 at least
23. how many bells do you usually have on you?
100k if I can help it but I’m usually broke
24. do you get something new or something expensive from wisp?
New new new
25. do you collect your bonus miles at the nook stop every day?
I try to! If I remember
26. what’s your island rating? what’s keeping you from a higher star rating, if applicable?
4 stars baYYBEEE & I think my house isn’t maxed out yet and also “things are cluttered” according to Isabelle.
27. have you used any landscaping glitches (fourth level glitch, tree on cliff edge glitch, etc)?
No DIDNT even know about these but hmmm
28. what’s the current layout of your house?
My house is located in the back left side of my island on a hill. Pretty lavish.
29. what’s one recipe/clothing/furniture you just cant get but everyone else seems to have?
The freaking twig wreath. Luckily my gf made it for me but I have so many underwater DIY’s and no woodsy / cottage core ones. There’s still a lot on my nookazon wishlist I need
30. do you let your weeds grow?
I pick them and move them someplace else when I’m landscaping or sell to Leif
31. what’s one area you’d like to add to your island one day?
A botanical garden or as close to one as possible with every plant available in this game
32. do you pop the balloons when you see them?
Yessss
33. do you prefer fishing or catching bugs?
Catching bugs I get impatient with the fishes
34. do you do label’s fashion checks when she’s on your island?
Yes did one today haha
35. what is the date on your island?
July 8th 2020
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100 Days to Animal Crossing Challenge!
In the spirit of the countdown to New Leaf (remember when? :’) ), and to help wile away the days, here’s 100 questions for every day until New Horizons is here! Enjoy!
1. Do you prefer making up a new name for your villager, or using your own name? I always name my villager after myself. I go for the immersion!
2. Do you use the first map you’re given, or do you reset for layouts? I used to reset for layouts, until I started hacking. In New Horizons, I'll just be resetting for fruit!
3. Do you use the face you’re given, or do you wait for guides and choose your favourite? I would look for guides. Even with hacking, it's easier to just start with the face you want.
4. Favourite town/island name?/Have you a name picked out for your town/island? My favorite town name that I've seen so far is Lunaire. I don't want to share my town name just yet. It's nothing revolutionary or anything but its personal I guess?
5. Will you be sharing with friends/family, or is your island going to be all your own? I will be having my own island! My husband will have his own island as well. He says we'll spend most of our time in my island though lol
6. What’s a new feature you’re excited about? T E R R A F O R M
7. Favourite fruit? Peaches!
8. Least favourite fruit? Pears!
9. Favourite area? (Beach, campground, shopping district etc, from any entry in the series.) My favorite place was the wishing well in ACPG. So cute and sweet. As much as I loved the plaza in ACNL, it's got nothing on the original!
10. Where do you like to like to put your house? Do you like that level of customization, or do you prefer to have some things decided, like in older entries? I like to put my house near waterfalls, its relaxing and good for fishing! I could never get my house near the water in older games, so it was a nice change in ACNL.
11. Favourite grass pattern? Personally, I never really notice the grass patterns!
12. Least favourite grass pattern? See #11 :v
13. Favourite villager/s? My fav villagers are Skye and Punchy 💕
14. Least favourite villager/s? I hate Elise the Monkey
15. Did you like doing Tom Nook’s chores, or did you find those to be a pain? I used to find them a pain as a kid but I miss them now. It was so much more engaging!
16. Favourite NPC/s? My fav would have to be KK. He's such a cool dude, he's just full of nostalgia for me.
17. Least favourite NPC/s? I don't really have a least favorite? I guess Katie's mom, her lipstick is tacky imo
18. Do you use paths? Are you excited about the new path tool? With hacking, I use clover paths so they're easier to see on the editor. I can't wait to have real paths, though!
19. Favourite feature from an older entry? The festivities! The neighbors were so much more engaged in ACPG, ACNL is sorta boring in comparison.
20. What was your first Animal Crossing game? My first was ACPG, the gamecube one!
21. Favourite activity (fishing, bug catching, fossil hunting, other)? Fishing was always exciting AND relaxing for me
22. Least favourite activity? Fossil hunting, but only because I don't get immediately results and I'm impatient lol
23. Favourite bug? Even though I don't like these irl, snails hehe
24. Least favourite bug? Scorpions and tarantulas, only because I've almost never encountered them in ANY game
25. A quarter of the way there! How’s the wait? Agonizing
26. Favourite fish? It's not actually a fish, but I like the softshell turtle!
27. Least favourite fish? The napoleon fish, that big blue one -.-
28. Favourite fossil? The ammonite!
29. Least favourite fossil? Don't really have one lol
30. Favourite furniture series? I've always liked the flower set you get from Leif and the mush set, so cute!
31. Least favourite furniture series? The holiday specific ones, they're so tacky and boring!
32. Favourite soundtrack? (Gamecube, DS/Wii, etc) Gamecube for sure
33. Least favourite soundtrack? Honestly, ACNL. Don't dig the steel drum
34. Favourite wallpaper? The ivy wall hehe
35. Do you have a nice memory of the games/community etc you’d like to share? I didn't really have too much interaction with the community until recently! I just gained a bunch of followers and it's super flattering lol I want to become more involved!
36. Least favourite wallpaper? Cheese...
37. Favourite carpet? I personally love the old board flooring, so simple and rustic!
38. Least favourite carpet? CHEESE
39. Favourite furniture item? The fairy bottle from the Welcome Amiibo update!
40. Will you be buying a Switch for Animal Crossing, or do you already have one? I'm trading in my old switch for the slick new Animal Crossing Switch!
41. Least favourite furniture item? The ultra things that you can get from Redd, so useless!
42. Favourite flower? Carnations!
43. Least favourite flower? Cosmos!
44. Favourite hybrid? Blue roses for sure
45. Least favourite hybrid? Any cosmos
46. Favourite shirt? The denim shirt, long sleeve
47. Favourite dress? I like the raincoat
48. Favourite accessory? Silver frames!
49. Favourite hat/helmet? The keroppi pins
50. Halfway there! How’s the wait going? Pretty numb!
51. Favourite shop? Dream Suite! So much fun visiting towns!
52. Do you collect amiibo cards/figures? Would you like to see them used in the new game? I have all the amiibo cards are all my fav neighbors, and about have of the total amiibo cards that exist. Idk if I'll use them right away and get all my favs or if I'll let my town naturally fill up and then switch folks out yet
53. Fishing Tourney or Bug-Off? Fishing Tourney, I like fishing more
54. Do you like making your own clothing patterns? I used to, but ACPC made me appreciate the already made in game clothes
55. Did you streetpass with many other ACNL players, or is it a feature you didn’t get much use of? I don't get much use out of it nowadays but I would always come back from conventions with a full showcase when I was younger
56. Favourite villager species? Cats!
57. Least favourite villager species? Monkeys
58. Favourite nickname from a villager? I don't really remember the nicknames I got
59. Least favourite nickname from a villager? I also always hated them!
60. Do you try to collect everything in the game, or just try to get your favourite bits and pieces? Bits and pieces for sure
61. Favourite villager personality? Normal and lazy
62. Least favourite villager personality? Jock
63. Do you “plot reset” for villager house placement, or do you let them move in wherever they want? During my first playthrough of ACNL, I didn't. Then I started doing it when I learned about it. Then I started hacking!
64. Are you excited to wear any of the new accessories (like the bags etc shown in the E3 trailer)? ACPC sorta spoiled that stuff for me, they're still very much appreciated though
65. What season are you most looking forward to seeing in New Horizons? Spring!! 🌸🌸🌸
66. What’s your favourite season? Spring again hehe
67. Least favourite season? Summer, kinda boring
68. Which game’s events/holidays do you like the most? Ones that are actually engaging with you and the neighbors
69. Which game’s events/holidays do you like least? Days like solstices, which just served as "Isabelle is unavailable" Days
70. Do you have another nice AC related memory you’d like to share (in-game, of the community, etc)? When ACPG came out, I was about 6. I had a DVD with those lame live action commercials and I was ENAMORED with them! Obsessed! I begged my parents for the game and they would hem and haw "well there's a lot of reading... you'll have to get better at reading... we won't always be able to help you read it..." and I swore up and down that I'd learn and practice reading. Obviously, nearly 20 years later, I'm still completely obsessed
71. Do you prefer the “live” versions of K.K. Slider’s Songs, or the airchecks? I like both but for different reasons. The live versions are nice and nostalgic and the air checks are closer to the aesthetic that they're actually trying to portray
72. An NPC you’d like to see more of? Farley and Serena!
73. An NPC you’d like to see less of? None in particular, everyone is pretty well designed imo
74. If you could have any piece of AC merchandise, which would it be? I once saw a cute bento box with pics from the movie, my soul died knowing I may never find it to buy anywhere
75. Only 25 days left to go! How’s the wait? Still numb!
76. Will you be downloading the game, or getting a physical copy? I'm getting a physical copy and my husband is getting a digital, so he can't be tempted to sell it!
77. Do you like coming up with your own town tune/flag, or using what the game gives you/something from a book/tv show/other game, etc? I like doing a sort of japanese "end of school" bell for my town tune, only for the town clock. Idk how I'm gonna do it in this game though...
78. Do you play every day, or every other day/when you feel like it/other? I used to play ACNL everyday, then it got a bit boring. I'm gonna play ACNH literally everyday forever lol
79. Are you the kind of person who starts over after leaving their town for a really long time, or do you try to get right back to it? I tend to restart a lot, but I recently decided to leave my ACNL town with no regrets so I hacked the crap out of it without feeling tacky or cringy
80. Do you remember how you got into the Animal Crossing series? It immediately caught my eye as a 6 year old and its had its grasp on me since
81. Do you like to make up a story for the town/character when you play, or do you just play as yourself? I play as myself but I sorta make a bunch of headcanons for myself and my neighbors and stuff to make it more interesting for me. Sometimes its embarrassing and sometimes I need to tell the people!
82. Favourite dream address / “theme” for a town (pastel, fairytale, forest, horror, etc)? My favorite town has always been Pastelia, although the mayor's name is escaping me atm >m<"
83. Do you like to have your house fully upgraded/paid off, or do you like keeping it smaller/having fewer rooms? I used to fully upgrade my house all the time but my current ACNL house only have 4 rooms and that's IT
84. Favourite hairstyle? The one with the middle split and it goes behind the ears
85. Least favourite hairstyle? The three ponytails, rip ACWW me
86. Favourite hair colour? I go either pink or my natural brown
87. Least favourite hair colour? That bright green...
88. Do you prefer wearing in-game clothes, or custom designs? In game clothes!
89. Favourite hourly track? 2 pm from ACPG
90. Just ten more days! How’re you feeling? Half paid off my new switch, so ready!
91. Least favourite hourly track? I don't think I have one!
92. Do you prefer to know all about the game before designing your town/island/house, or do you like to wing it? Bro, I've been glued to my phone since the direct came out
93. Another nice Animal Crossing memory? ACNL came out around the time my husband and I started dating, almost exactly at the same time. Now its 8 years later, we're married, and we're gonna play another animal crossing game together finally!
94. Are you excited about same-system multiplayer? Its gonna be great for a lot of people, kinda useless for me though
95. Five more days! Are you going to trade/use amiibo to get your favourite villager, or wait for them to move in themselves/make a new favourite? I think I'll put in my 2 top favs, and then see what comes. Maybe after a few months I'll put everyone in
96. Favourite emotion/Shrunk joke? I don't really like his jokes, but my fav emotions to use are the bashful ones
97. Least favourite emotion/Shrunk joke? Not a fan of his dopey dance
98. Is there a feature you’d like to add to Animal Crossing? I wanna be able to decorate for my neighbors so badly!
99. Is there a feature you’d take away? It kinda seems like a lot of issues were solved in ACNH, I guess we'll see what's leftover as an annoying feature
100. Final day! Any more thoughts? Midnight release at my local gamestop! Gonna be there with a bunch of DOOM fans too! Can't wait!!
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Animal Crossing Countdown
I didn’t find this post until today, so I have to do a LOT of questions in a very short span of time, namely for my own amusement and the two people who care. But I’m gonna put it under a read more because no one needs to see a post this long in the actual ACNH tag.
1: Do you prefer making up a new name for your villager, or using your own name?
I tend to use my nickname, because I share my name with one of my favourite villagers, so it gets confusing and annoying.
2: Do you use the first map you’re given, or do you reset for layouts?
I reset for layouts, but I’m not terribly picky. I reset more because of fruit than layout.
3: Do you use the face you’re given, or do you wait for guides and choose your favourite?
Guides. Me not knowing that your face is dependent on some arbitrary questions was the cause of me immediately restarting my first town.
4: Favourite town/island name?/Have you a name picked out for your town/island?
I’ve only ever played New Leaf, and my town’s name was Wishfall. I’m not sure what I’ll name the island yet, but Wishfall is definitely one of the options.
5: Will you be sharing with friends/family, or is your island going to be all your own?
No. Mine. Though I will be inviting people over, no one will have a house but me.
6: What’s a new feature you’re excited about?
Redirecting rivers. Terraforming. Placing villager houses. Anything that will help me maintain and mold the island into what I want it to be.
7: Favourite fruit?
Apples. Second favourite are cherries, but only for looks.
8: Least favourite fruit?
Probably pears, which is funny, since Wishfall’s town specialty were pears. I don’t like how they look, and I’m also allergic. Second least favourite would be oranges.
9: Favourite area? (Beach, campground, shopping district etc, from any entry in the series.)
The museum.
10: Where do you like to like to put your house? Do you like that level of customization, or do you prefer to have some things decided, like in older entries?
I don’t have experience with the older entries, but I know I’d prefer to make a choice on where my house goes. I like it to be a little away from other villagers, usually backed up against a cliff.
11: Favourite grass pattern?
Triangle.
12: Least favourite grass pattern?
Circle, but it’s not that I don’t like it. I just prefer it less.
13: Favourite villager/s?
Whitney. Julian. Pashmina. Drago. Merengue. Bam. Merry. Apollo.
14: Least favourite villager/s?
Jambette. Cobb. Chops. Frita.
15: Did you like doing Tom Nook’s chores, or did you find those to be a pain?
I mean. I like tasks. But having only played ACNL, I can’t say I HAD any chores besides “Pay your loan!”
16: Favourite NPC/s?
Kicks. Blathers. Crazy Redd. Katrina. Isabelle, obviously.
17: Least favourite NPC/s?
Zipper. Chip. Pave.
18: Do you use paths? Are you excited about the new path tool?
Yes, and fuck yes.
19: Favourite feature from an older entry?
I would have liked to see what the Celeste constellation thing was about. I’ve heard about it, but I don’t know any details. But I like the idea.
20: What was your first Animal Crossing game?
New Leaf was the first game I played in depth and actually owned, but I did play a little of a game on a DS when I was in high school. Probably Wild World. I really only remember shaking trees.
21: Favourite activity (fishing, bug catching, fossil hunting, other)?
Collecting museum donations.
22: Least favourite activity?
The arbitrary rules for the bug or fish tournaments, or the randomization of rewards given in any events at all. The events themselves would be fine, if they made any damn sense.
23: Favourite bug?
Emperor Butterfly. Birdwing Butterfly. Orchid Mantis. Oak Silk Moth. Walking Leaf.
24: Least favourite bug?
Fucking Mole Crickets. Not a fan of the House Centipede or Tarantula either.
25: A quarter of the way there! How’s the wait?
Impatience. So much impatience.
26: Favourite fish?
Goldfish. Sea Butterfly.
27: Least favourite fish?
Giant Trevally. That thing is fucking ugly. Napoleonfish, too.
28: Favourite fossil?
Fern Fossils or any skulls, but I actually don’t have any strong feelings one way or another.
29: Least favourite fossil?
Coprolite. ...Why.
30: Favourite furniture series?
Don’t really have one, though I’m partial to the Regal and Exotic series.
31: Least favourite furniture series?
Lovely. Don’t like it. Don’t like Kiddie much, either, though it’s cute for certain villagers like Kitt or Stitches.
32: Favourite soundtrack? (Gamecube, DS/Wii, etc)
New Leaf, since it’s my only experience.
33: Least favourite soundtrack?
None.
34: Favourite wallpaper?
Lunar Horizon. The Forest Wall, too.
35: Do you have a nice memory of the games/community etc you’d like to share?
When Pashmina moved in next to me, I was irritated. I’d specifically placed my house next to Re-Tail, but not too close, and she moved in between the two buildings. ...But now she’s my favourite goat, my favourite uchi villager, and honestly, I love her to bits. First impressions apparently don’t always matter too much.
36: Least favourite wallpaper?
Industrial, probably.
37: Favourite carpet?
Palace Tile, I suppose? Though it doesn’t go with everything.
38: Least favourite carpet?
Closed Road, probably.
39: Favourite furniture item?
Whichever grasshopper it is that goes in a cute little bamboo cage.
40: Will you be buying a Switch for Animal Crossing, or do you already have one?
I have one already, sadly. I’m sending it out for repairs, though.
41: Least favourite furniture item?
There are some uuuugly ass furniture items, but it’s impossible to remember them, so I don’t.
42: Favourite flower?
Black or pink lilies, blue and purple violets, and blue and purple roses.
43: Least favourite flower?
Meh. I like them all okay. If I had to choose, I’d say I’m not overly fond of the Cosmos.
44: Favourite hybrid?
See above.
45: Least favourite hybrid?
I don’t care much for the orange pansies.
46: Favourite shirt?
Night-Sky Tee.
47: Favourite dress?
I don’t wear them.
48: Favourite accessory?
Feathers.
49: Favourite hat/helmet?
FEATHERS.
50: Halfway there! How’s the wait going?
IMPATIENCE.
51: Favourite shop?
Kicks, I guess. Even though I don’t go in there. I love him. And the sign squeaks.
52: Do you collect amiibo cards/figures? Would you like to see them used in the new game?
I have a good amount of cards, both real and fake. Some figures, too. I wouldn’t say I collect them, but I try to have them just in case. I’d like them in the new game.
53: Fishing Tourney or Bug-Off?
Fucking neither, but if I HAD to choose, Fishing Tourney. At least in New Leaf. I like catching bugs more, but it seems totally random if they’re lackluster or not. I don’t prefer fishing, but at least all you need is the damn size to tell you if it’s a good fish or not.
54: Do you like making your own clothing patterns?
Nope.
55: Did you streetpass with many other ACNL players, or is it a feature you didn’t get much use of?
I streetpassed a bit but eventually turned it off after getting too more undesirable villagers from other people. Frita and Chops will always be two of my most despised villagers for this reason.
56: Favourite villager species?
Wolves.
57: Least favourite villager species?
Gorillas.
58: Favourite nickname from a villager?
Darling, but I liked that Merry called me Pop Star. It was charming coming from her.
59: Least favourite nickname from a villager?
Big Y. Indeed. Big why.
60: Do you try to collect everything in the game, or just try to get your favourite bits and pieces?
I try to collect everything eventually but I’m not insane about it. I like to fill my catalog.
61: Favourite villager personality?
Smug. But it looks better on some villagers than others. Cute on Julian or Lopez, AWFUL on Chops.
62: Least favourite villager personality?
Jock, but again, while it’s cute on Bam, I loathe it on Cobb. It really depends on the villager, somehow.
63: Do you “plot reset” for villager house placement, or do you let them move in wherever they want?
I plot reset a bit, but only if they moved somewhere particularly undesirable.
64: Are you excited to wear any of the new accessories (like the bags etc shown in the E3 trailer)?
Of course I am!
65: What season are you most looking forward to seeing in New Horizons?
Fall. The mushrooooooms.
66: What’s your favourite season?
Fall, though I loved how the cherry blossoms were carried on the river in spring.
67: Least favourite season?
Probably winter, just because it starts to look uninteresting after awhile.
68: Which game’s events/holidays do you like the most?
I’m partial to Halloween. Also, I have to cheat during April Fool’s Day, but the villagers’ reactions to Blanca are cute. I also begrudgingly like Bunny Day, but I can’t say I love it because Zipper creeps me out. I love collecting the eggs from all over the place, but he gives you totally random items, so. Eh.
69: Which game’s events/holidays do you like least?
Love feathers. Hate Pave. Seriously. Can’t stand him. He’s super annoying to me. I like the feather-catching portion and that is IT. I also believe I’ve already expressed my dislike for tournaments.
70: Do you have another nice AC related memory you’d like to share (in-game, of the community, etc)?
Weirdly, this is related to Pashmina again, but once I visited her after I got my face destroyed by bees, and she gave me medicine. I know now that uchi villagers in particular are likely to do this, but I’d never seen it happen before, and I was touched.
71: Do you prefer the “live” versions of K.K. Slider’s Songs, or the airchecks?
Yes.
72: An NPC you’d like to see more of?
Kicks. Sable. Katrina.
73: An NPC you’d like to see less of?
Chip.
74: If you could have any piece of AC merchandise, which would it be?
I dunno. A big comfy hoodie, maybe? A mug? I’m not particularly materialistic. I like useful things.
75: Only 25 days left to go! How’s the wait?
You know, I’m really glad I spent the last few months hyped for games that came out over time. It’s been bite-size chunks of releases that were only a little ways away. Fire Emblem: Three Houses. Concrete Genie. Pokemon Sword. The Cindered Shadows DLC. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon. I can’t imagine this having been the only game I was looking forward to, or I would have died by now.
76: Will you be downloading the game, or getting a physical copy?
Physical copy. As much as I’d love to play it right at midnight, I like not having to wait for download time, or take up a lot of space in storage. I’m hoping my GameStop does a midnight release, but I’m not counting on it.
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It’s a reset year for UNC football. How far will Larry Fedora’s Heels fall?
Now that North Carolina’s production finally makes sense, let’s find out what the program’s made of.
Chapel Hill is a lovely place, and it houses a lovely campus. UNC has an enrollment in the neighborhood of 30,000. It’s spacious but not too spaced out, it’s got plenty of trees and pretty, old buildings, and the athletics facilities are mostly baked into the cake.
The old basketball arena is on the main artery road on campus (the Dean Dome is separated but isn’t too far away), and the football stadium is in the middle of things. Downtown is nearby, and it’s got drinking (cheap and fancy) and eating (ditto) options. From the dorms, you can access virtually all of this by foot.
This is a semi-idyllic, normal college town, and for a couple of years now, it has had a normal football team for once.
Over Fedora’s five seasons, he has averaged a recruiting class ranking of 29.8 (per the 247Sports Composite), produced three S&P+ top-30 performances, and averaged eight wins per year. You could note that the other two teams were pretty far outside of the top 30, or that he should be doing a hair better in recruiting, but recruiting and performance are finally in line with each other.
For most of the 2000s, that hadn’t been the case. The Tar Heels were the poster boys for what could be. In John Bunting’s first season, they beat No. 6 Florida State and No. 13 Clemson by a combined 79-12. They also lost to Wake Forest and Maryland and finished 8-5. They beat No. 4 Miami in 2004 but finished 6-6. They beat ranked Virginia and BC teams in 2005 but finished 5-6.
When Butch Davis took over, he demonstrated the program’s ceiling by signing a top-10 class in 2007 and top-20 classes in 2009 and 2011. He went 8-5 for three straight years, and he was dismissed in the summer of 2011 as part of UNC’s ongoing effort to fight academic misconduct and improper benefits allegations.
Big recruits, big wins, and no top-15 finishes from 1998 to 2014. That was UNC’s reality. And now it’s something far more ... reality-based.
Fedora’s classes are almost identical from year to year, and from an S&P+ standpoint (presented in the format of adjusted points per game) his three good teams (2013, 2015, and 2016) have been within 0.4 points of each other: plus-11.1, plus-10.7, and plus-11.1. This is almost too normal.
How does Fedora raise the bar now? I’m not sure, but I know he probably won’t do so in 2017. Like 2014, when UNC slipped to 6-7 and 71st in S&P+ before surging, Fedora’s Heels have a lot to replace, particularly on offense: a top-10 draft choice at QB, two running backs who combined for 1,500 yards, five of the top six receiving targets, and two all-conference offensive linemen. A scary-in-a-good-way special teams unit is also rebuilding. The defense is experienced but lost its coordinator.
UNC is projected to fall from 21st to 38th in S&P+. The Heels’ schedule is kind, for an ACC slate — no Clemson or Florida State, and Louisville, Miami, and Notre Dame at home — and eight of 12 games are projected to finish within one possession, which means a few exciting new pieces could make the difference between a four- or nine-win season. The former might lead us to wonder about Fedora’s staying power; the latter might make UNC the 2018 ACC Coastal favorite.
2016 in review
2016 UNC statistical profile.
I got yelled at by UNC fans during the Heels’ 11-win 2015. UNC ranked a mere 28th in S&P+. It was easy to explain why — they lost to both of the S&P+ top-25 teams they faced (Clemson and Baylor), barely got by teams ranked 40th and 68th, and lost to a South Carolina that ended up in the 80s.
When you’re winning, it feels like you should rank high no matter what, but things normalized in 2016. The Heels exceeded expectations from an S&P+ standpoint (they were projected 27th and finished 21st) but finished with a win total (eight) right where it was projected to be. The schedule went from featuring two top-30 teams to six; that’ll cost you a few wins.
That’s not to say the season went according to plan. (UNC hasn’t totally kicked the UNC habit, I guess.) The Heels went 3-3 against those top-30 teams, beating No. 6 Florida State and No. 14 Miami on the road and knocking off No. 20 Pitt at home. If you’re capable of that, you probably shouldn’t also lose to a mediocre Georgia and both chief rivals (28-27 to Duke, 28-21 to NC State). The record was less a product of the schedule and more a product of when they showed up.
UNC in eight wins: Avg. percentile performance: 83% (~top 20) | Avg. score: UNC 40, Opp 22 | Avg. yards per play: UNC 7.5, Opp 5.5 (plus-2.0)
UNC in five losses: Avg. percentile performance: 47% (~top 70) | Avg. score: Opp 30, UNC 20 | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.2, UNC 5.2 (plus-0.0)
The defense was roughly the same, but the offense fluctuated. The Heels laid an egg in a rainstorm against Virginia Tech, but even in the other games, there was a clear difference between Good UNC and Bad UNC.
Maybe it’s a good sign that the defense was more stable, as the defense will far more closely resemble last year’s unit than the offense will.
Offense
Full advanced stats glossary.
Mitch Trubisky was only the starting quarterback for one year at UNC, but he made the most of it. He completed 68 percent of his passes and threw for nearly 3,800 yards with 30 touchdowns to only six interceptions; after completing 66 percent of his passes through two seasons as a backup, he proved small sample sizes can tell a semi-accurate story. That was enough to get him (over-)drafted second in the 2017 NFL draft.
If he didn’t produce, however, UNC wasn’t going to win. He threw interceptions in three games (two in each), and the Heels lost all three. When he produced a passer rating under 150, UNC went 1-4. The run game was decent but unspectacular (and it was horrendous in short-yardage situations), and the defense was decent but inefficient, and Trubisky had to be awesome for the Heels to survive.
Trubisky’s gone, and so are running backs Elijah Hood and T.J. Logan, receivers Ryan Switzer, Bug Howard, and Mack Hollins, and starting linemen Jon Heck, Lucas Crowley, Caleb Peterson. Yikes.
This isn’t going to scare coordinator Gunter Brewer too much; he’s seen things. His career got rolling when he coached Randy Moss as Marshall’s receivers coach, and he ended up holding the same roles at UNC and Oklahoma State (under Fedora). When Fedora left to take the Southern Miss head coaching gig, Brewer ended up as OSU co-coordinator, then as passing game coordinator for a year at Ole Miss. Once you’ve worked for a desperate Houston Nutt, not much is going to phase you.
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Brandon Harris
With so much gone, let’s take stock:
LSU graduate transfer Brandon Harris was the Tigers’ QB for most of 2015, and he threw for 2,158 yards and 13 touchdowns while sharing a backfield with Leonard Fournette. He was inefficient but explosive, completing 54 percent but at 14.6 yards per completion. He struggled in a season-opening loss to Wisconsin last year, then got yanked after going 1-for-4 for eight yards against Jacksonville State.
If Harris doesn’t seize control, the job will go to sophomore Nathan Elliott (8-for-9 for 55 yards as Trubisky’s backup) or one of two redshirt freshmen — Chazz Surratt or Logan Byrd. Surratt was the most well-regarded as a recruit, and Elliott wasn’t awful in scrub time last fall.
Senior Austin Proehl is the de facto go-to in the receiving corps. Of the six players targeted at least 20 times, he’s the only returnee. He had 597 receiving yards at 8 yards per target, and his 49 percent success rate second-best of that six-man bunch. He peaked with seven catches for 99 yards in the win over Pitt and seven for 91 in the bowl loss to Stanford. The only other wideouts with more than three catches last year: former walk-on and potential possession extraordinaire Thomas Jackson (18 targets, 17 catches, 78 percent success rate last year) and Jordan Cunningham (10 targets, six catches, 82 yards).
Tackle Bentley Spain and guard R.J. Prince have combined for 35 career starts, and sophomore guard Tommy Hatton added an extra eight last season. They are joined by Florida graduate transfer Cameron Dillard and USC graduate transfer Khaliel Rodgers, plus a smattering of former star recruits — sophomore William Sweet, redshirt freshman Jay-Jay McCargo, freshman Jonah Melton, etc. In theory, there’s a nice starting five.
Oh right, running backs. Hmm. Auburn grad transfer Stanton Truitt rushed 31 times for the Tigers last year as a part-time RB/WR. Sophomore Jordon Brown gained just 45 yards in 20 carries last year. True freshmen Michael Carter and Antwuan Branch are options. Aaaaaand I’m not sure what else.
The run game will probably regress, which will put Trubisky-level pressure on the new passing corps. That doesn’t usually translate to success.
Defense
Former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik was really good at a couple of specific things. His Tar Heel defenses prevented big plays, waited for you to make a mistake, and then pounced, usually on passing downs. They were bend-don’t-break to the core, ranking 97th in success rate and 19th in IsoPPP (which measures the magnitude of the successful plays).
It’s hard to create an elite defense with those principles, but when you’re trying to restore credibility, it’s a good place to start. Before you can win (make stops), you have to figure out how not to lose (suffer big breakdowns), right?
UNC improved from 110th in Def. S&P+ pre-Chizik to 72nd in 2015 and 44th in 2016. But the 55-year old stepped aside to spend more time with his family, leaving John Papuchis to figure out how to keep pushing the defense forward.
The 39-year-old is a Bo Pelini disciple who spent 2008-10 as Nebraska’s defensive ends coach and 2012-14 as NU defensive coordinator. His last Husker defense ranked basically the same as UNC’s last year, but the Huskers ranked a more balanced 43rd in success rate and 56th in IsoPPP. They gave up more big plays but created far more turnover chances. And they did that with an ultra young front.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Malik Carney
Chizik had to deal with something similar last year. Among the 14 combined linemen and linebackers who recorded at least 8.5 tackles in 2016, six were sophomores, and three were freshmen. That didn’t do the Heels too many favors — they were 72nd in Rushing S&P+, 95th in rushing success rate, and 120th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) — but assuming a normal developmental curve, that could mean improvement.
End Malik Carney recorded 8.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks last year, while tackles Jeremiah Clarke and Aaron Crawford appear to have potential as boulders in the middle. Meanwhile, junior linebackers Cole Holcomb and Andre Smith and senior Cayson Collins combined for 15 TFLs and eight breakups. If younger players like ends Jason Strowbridge and Tomon Fox and linebacker Dominique Ross live up to flashes of potential, the front seven could be fun. And if it isn’t, it probably will be in 2018.
Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
M.J. Stewart
The secondary was dealt a tricky hand in having to compensate for such an inexperienced front seven. Opponents far preferred run to pass, rushing 68 percent of the time on standard downs (13th in FBS) and 45 percent on passing downs (second). And the return of safety Donnie Miles and corner M.J. Stewart gives the Heels a couple of anchors in the back once more.
Chizik didn’t employ a large rotation in the back, and the loss of safety Dominquie Green and corner Des Lawrence hurts. Even with Miles and Stewart, UNC will rely on youngsters — some combination of marginally tested juniors (Corey Bell Jr., J.K. Britt), sophomores (Myles Dorn, Patrice Rene, K.J. Sails, D.J. Ford), and freshmen (Myles Wolfolk, Greg Ross, C.J. Cotman, Tre Shaw).
The run defense better improve, but the timing might be right for Papuchis to dial up the aggressiveness.
Special Teams
First, the good news: punter Tom Sheldon is back. The 6’3 sophomore was a first-year hit, averaging 42.7 yards per kick with a good fair catch ratio and a 70 percent punting success rate (14th in FBS). Odds are decent that UNC will be punting more, and Sheldon could give the Heels a field position bump.
Now the bad news. No more Ryan Switzer (seven career punt return touchdowns). No more T.J. Logan (four career kick return touchdowns). No more Nick Weiler (7-for-10 on FGs longer than 40 yards last year).
UNC ranked ninth in Special Teams S&P+ last season, and unless Weiler’s replacement is amazing, there’s almost nowhere to go but down.
2017 outlook
2017 Schedule & Projection Factors
Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep California 55 5.5 63% 9-Sep Louisville 14 -9.0 30% 16-Sep at Old Dominion 93 11.7 75% 23-Sep Duke 65 6.6 65% 30-Sep at Georgia Tech 31 -4.6 40% 7-Oct Notre Dame 17 -5.7 37% 14-Oct Virginia 70 9.4 71% 21-Oct at Virginia Tech 25 -7.0 34% 28-Oct Miami 18 -4.5 40% 9-Nov at Pittsburgh 33 -3.8 41% 18-Nov Western Carolina NR 38.8 99% 25-Nov at N.C. State 27 -5.4 38%
Projected S&P+ Rk 38 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 59 / 32 Projected wins 6.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 6.9 (41) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 29 / 24 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -2 / 7.4 2016 TO Luck/Game -3.6 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 41% (19%, 64%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 8.5 (-0.5)
UNC is experimenting with a newfound sense of normalcy, and it’s looked good in baby blue. But when you reach this top-30 level, one of two things tends to happen: you either upgrade, or you deal with bumps in the road. Recruiting isn’t changing much, so when experience isn’t distributed quite right, there will be setback years.
UNC will almost certainly regress, with this much offensive turnover, but whether the Heels fall to 35th or 55th or 75th will set the bar. Adding Harris helps to assure a higher floor, but if one of the younger guys beats him out for the starting QB job, that might not be the worst thing, long-term.
From Cal in the opener to NC State to finish the regular season, UNC’s season will be filled with relative tossups and ups and downs. The potential UNC shows will say a lot about Fedora’s ability to keep normalcy in Chapel Hill.
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