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jasonritzzo · 4 years

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Suburb Real Estate Boom

Lately, it seems that many are rooting for the fall of New York City, reporting on an alleged exodus and claiming the calm of the suburbs will replace the rumble of the Big Apple, even after the COVID-19 pandemic is over. And in many ways, they are right, but various real estate professionals from the tri-state area believe the New York City exit is temporary and complicated.

"The Manhattan housing market has been hit particularly hard," said Garrett Derderian, the founder of GS Data Services, adding that as potential buyers remain cautious about purchasing property in the city, the number of condo contracts declined by 34%, co-ops dropped 33% and small family homes dropped 11%.

Meanwhile, in Greenwich, Connecticut, the number of contracts signed went up 186% compared to this time last year. In the Hamptons, contracts went up 104%, and in Westchester, agents also saw more activity, though the market may have already peaked, Derderian said.

Yashmin Lloyds, a Compass broker in Connecticut, said that while, yes, Greenwich is having the strongest market it has had in a decade, it's all very "temporary," and with all the demand, realtors are actually running out of inventory. There are no rentals available, and most of the homes still on the market are very high-end.

For even the most established of realtors in the city, the boom in the suburbs is a red flag, but that doesn't mean it's permanent.

"Everyone's scared. A lot of major landlords are extremely nervous," Chris Okada, a broker and investor in Manhattan, told ABC News. "I mean, the Upper East Side is a ghost town. There are moving trucks everywhere ... But we're hopeful."

"When people talk about the New York City exodus, they're talking about pockets of Manhattan," he said. "But they're forgetting that Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island have a whole demographic of people that are not gonna be moving at all, because of family, because of work, because of different situations."

Lindsay Barton Barrett, a Douglas Elliman agent in Brooklyn, said the stories about the exodus came out because the city was shut down and other markets started operating much sooner. "So, if you shut down New York for any time, of course you are going to see a comparative activity anywhere else," she said.

She said that many New Yorkers went to their parents' or in-laws' second homes for the first few months of the pandemic and were active in neighborhoods where they usually aren't. Summer towns got activity before the summer, suburbs got an influx of people, and still, New York remained closed. "It changed the market temporarily," Barton Barrett said, "but not fundamentally."

Currently, Derderian said, the Hamptons is the strongest luxury market in the tri-state region, with the number of sales between $3-5 million up 259% and the number of sales priced between $10-20 million up 150%. But many of those buyers also have properties in the city, and may be investing in the suburbs because they've realized they want more space and better living conditions on the weekends.

Other real estate professionals are seeing the current New York City housing market as an opportunity to invest and to sell the suburbs.

Jacqueline Trelease, an agent for The Corcoran Group in the Hamptons, does believe there is a New York City exodus, but in her eyes, it's a good thing.

"Schools [in the Hamptons] have had declining enrollment for years, businesses and restaurants struggle to survive on the offseason," she said. "I think this is going to be refreshing. Year-round residency is a different vibe than summer. It should be seen as a good thing and probably with our ability to work virtually a more long-term situation."

About half of the clients she's rented to this year are choosing to stay in the Hamptons rather than return to the city, she said.

"They've been out of the city with yards and pools since March and they've realized these places offer a lot more year round than they thought," she said.

Prices for homes in the Hamptons have risen, she added, but there's so much demand that people are agreeing to pay a lot more money than usual.

For many, experts said the pandemic was the excuse they needed to leave New York City.

Lisa Chajet, of Warburg Realty, said she does think there is a demographic that is leaving the city and not coming back. "It's the younger people who always had one foot out the door and this just pushed them," she said. "They were the 20 and 30-year-olds who were living here out of convenience and in small rentals. Why are they paying $6,000 a month for a crappy two-bedroom when everyone was working from home?"

Lloyds said that people moving to Connecticut from the city are young families or older couples looking for more space and a better quality of life. "But it was already in their 10-year plan," she said. "For some, it just tipped the scales."

The same goes for parts of Brooklyn -- while the borough is not a suburb, it is also not Manhattan, and for residents hesitant to leave the city amid the coronavirus outbreak, it's far enough. "They are people who always thought about doing it before," Barrett said. "They were waiting for the right time and this presented itself as the right time."

Because of the overall uncertainty, though, some prices are dropping. "Studios in Manhattan and Brooklyn are getting the biggest reduction because no one can live in a studio right now, it's too claustrophobic," Jane Sosi, a Compass agent in the city, said.

"Right now, there are many apartments coming on the market," said Dorothy Schrager of Warburg Realty. "The crisis has caused many people to reevaluate their financial future and sell their apartments. And, if the country remains as angrily divided as it is, that might also cause more people to leave. The outcome of the elections can be a big factor in the future of all cities."

Still, long-term investors are taking advantage of the price drops and buying properties in New York that they can sell once things return to "normal."

Okada, who is a commercial real estate broker, bought his first residential property in Brooklyn amid the pandemic. "I felt it was the best opportunity because there was no competition," he said, adding that while "there's not necessarily a New York exodus, people are going to look for a better quality of life, so places like Brooklyn are going to do even better."

"Exodus... perhaps to Brooklyn," agreed UrbanDigs' COO and co-founder, John Walkup. "The Brooklyn market is doing better this summer vs. last summer, so perhaps the problem is not New York City, per se, but Manhattan and its price points. While Manhattan certainly seems quieter, it's still an open question as to how many folks have permanently left and how many are just waiting out the pandemic in other places. We need certainty on schools, jobs, and safety before the full numbers on any exodus will be known."

#real estate #housingboom #housing #suburbs #nycexit

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fenghuileng · 7 years

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爸媽讓我死了吧！華人海外投資血本無歸要自殺！澳明年房價或「停漲」這些區域崩盤風險加劇

來源：澳洲微報

炒房有風險，入市需謹慎。」

這句話，已經把大家的耳朵都磨起了繭子。

不過，就這樣一句老話，在房價飆升的時候誰又能聽的進去呢?

尤其是在房價連漲55年，傲居全球的澳洲！

更是讓很多華人瘋狂投資，都想在繁榮的澳洲房市中撈上一筆錢！

由於「炒房熱」持續高燒不退，許多人都前赴後繼地加入到炒房大軍中，不少人，都奔著「炒房致富」的目的而來。

然而，在這其中，成功的例子固然有，卻也有人因此血本無歸，欲哭無淚！

媽對不起，兒子給您跪下了，如有來生我一定好好孝敬您二老

日前，華人論壇一個名為《請所有的人，一定一定進來，有房、無房的都進來》的帖子火遍了海外華人的朋友圈。

文章內容令人震撼：

最後，這個網友寫道：

我已經無力承受跟償還，只能一死一走了之，加拿大幹活真的好累，爸媽我死在加拿大了，我對不住你們。

許多人看完以後，都表示「太過沉重，太令人震驚」！

市場的不可預測性和缺乏信息的採集就是這麼的恐怖！

一次失誤導致如此極端的後果令人唏噓。

2017年，澳洲房產市場變化巨大，雖然沒有發生像加拿大這樣房市暴跌的跡象，但是澳洲房市也出現了停漲和樓盤崩盤的預兆。

從上半年的火熱到下半年市場的回落，也讓無數的投資者經歷了心態的大起大落。

據the Australian報道，投資銀行瑞銀集團（UBS）拿出了3個威脅，斷定澳洲房市存在房市崩盤的風險：

家庭債務水平高，薪資增長緩慢，信貸失信！

其中，信貸信心成了最嚴峻的問題：

瑞銀房產業務的發言人Kim Wright稱，貸款申請信息不準確意味著，抵押貸款持有人比銀行更緊張，這「暗示著房市低迷的損失可能比銀行所預期的更大」。

澳洲房價更有可能在2018年出現0%增長，但是即便是這樣但依然改變不了房產在華人心中的分量。

2018年澳洲的房市又將如何？各大機構又是如何看待未來澳洲房產投資的呢？

悉尼房市

SQM Research的房產專家Louis Christopher在《2017年房市興衰報告》（HousingBoom and Bust Report 2017）中預測，悉尼雖然沒有了原本強勁的2位數增長速度，整體將上漲4%到8%。

但專家預測，2018年，這些地區的房價將會下跌：

不僅是整體房價，包括房屋租金，也面臨下跌的趨勢。

據澳媒稱，由於房產開發商的大批次房產開發效率，悉尼東部、西部以及北區近幾年公寓樓層層拔起，大量樓盤也如雨後春筍，一時間悉尼新樓建設遍地開花。

然而面對如此巨大的房產供應量，悉尼的入住率和租房率卻反而出現了下跌趨勢！

據統計，悉尼人口增長的速度遠遠低於樓盤開發的效率！

悉尼待租房屋的空置率，從1.8%，上升到了2.1%。

悉尼House的租金，整體下跌了1%！

其中最為明顯的是Darling Point區，

每周租金從2200刀下跌跌到了1700刀，暴跌22%！

Llandilo和悉尼北部的Box Hill，房租均下跌21%。

墨爾本房市

與悉尼逐漸放緩的情況有所不同，墨爾本房市如一鍋剛燒開的水，持續沸騰！

絕大多數專家預期價格將持續上漲，這是一個喜人的消息；

但與此同時，這些專家們都有一個共同的疑問：那便是對墨爾本公寓市場前景的憂慮。

所有專家一致認為，墨爾本的獨立屋價格在2017-18年的財政年度中將不會有任何下降的可能性。

但是，來自於AMP Capital首席經濟學家Shane Oliver表示，在未來12個月利率不變的情況下，公寓價格將下降5%。

同時銀行或將對「只還利息」貸款的利率增加25個基點。

PaulBloxham稱，悉尼和墨爾本的經濟在房價上放緩的主要原因是由於房產供應數量的增加，投資者貸款利率上升以及外需萎縮也為澳洲房市造成了很大的衝擊。

墨爾本目前公寓中位價為47.4萬澳元，而專家預測這一價格將在2018年下滑至45.1萬～46.3萬澳元之間。

簡單來說，墨爾本房價將下跌的理由只有四個字：

供大於求。

走在墨爾本市中心，放眼望去，施工建樓的工地遍布，很多已經到了交割的時候，供應量巨大！

最終總結

總體來說，對於未來澳洲房市及樓市總體趨勢是漲是跌，專家們也很難達成一個最終統一意見。但是，幾乎所有專家都認定：投資帶土地產權的獨棟房屋更為保值，尤其是在墨爾本地區。

3位經濟學家認為價格將有所下降

2位經濟學家認為價格將持續上升

預期上漲最高值：5%～10%

預期下跌最低值：5%

同時，澳洲房產專家認為明年增長最強勁的城市並非悉尼或墨爾本，而是Hobart，預測將增長13%。

而布里斯班也有可能會出現強勁的增長，預計增幅在3%到7%之間。

珀斯和Darwin預計也將進入復甦的「第一年」，漲幅預計都在1%到4%之間。

另外，除了以上提到的供求關係之外，還有兩點將對未來的房價產生重要影響：

其一是銀行加息。

墨爾本和悉尼的市場對於加息可能是最敏感的，即使是0.25%的加息都可能會造成這兩個城市的狀態直接下滑！

其二，則是人口增長速度！

澳媒稱，澳洲人口馬上突破2500萬！澳洲統計局估計每1分26秒澳洲就增加一個人口，澳洲已是人口增長最快的發達國家。

大量新移民湧入悉尼和墨爾本，統計局的數據顯示新州和維州的海外移民分別增長了31%和23%；而這些海外移民，或將左右悉尼和墨爾本未來房價和公寓價格的走向。

面臨如此的迅速的人口增長速度，房產的開發依然不會停，想要在澳洲房市中賺的自己的一片天地，還是那句老話，炒房有風險，入市需謹慎。

原文鏈接：爸媽讓我死了吧！華人海外投資血本無歸要自殺！澳明年房價或「停漲」這些區域崩盤風險加劇 - 澳洲最新新聞

本文標籤：墨爾本, 墨爾本公寓, 墨爾本市, 墨爾本市中心, 墨爾本房價, 布里斯班, 悉尼, 悉尼人口, 新州, 澳元, 澳洲, 澳洲人口, 澳洲房產, 澳洲房產投資, 澳洲房價, 澳洲房市, 澳洲統計局, 獨立屋, 珀斯

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