#hayward and beal should switch

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

By: Lucy Bannerman, James Beal, Eleanor Hayward

Published: Apr 10, 2024

The report should be the final nail in the coffin of Gids, the clinic that told thousands of children they were transgender

In 2009 the NHS’s gender identity ­development service (Gids) saw fewer than 50 children a year. Since then ­demand has increased a hundredfold, with more than 5,000 seeking help in 2021-22.

The sudden increase has gone hand in hand with the adoption of a model of “gender-affirming” care, which puts children on a life-altering path of hormone treatment. Services have been left overwhelmed, with vulnerable young people clamouring for medical interventions to help them change gender — despite a lack of evidence over the long-term effects.

It was against this backdrop that Dr Hilary Cass was commissioned in 2020 to examine the state of NHS services for children identifying as trans. Her final report, published on Wednesday, delivers a damning verdict on the medical path thousands of children have been sent down. It marks a turning point in years of bitter debate over how to help this distressed group of young people, confirming a shift towards a holistic model that takes into account the wider social and mental health problems driving the rise in demand.

Gen Z and online porn

The Cass report shines a light on the biggest unanswered question over transgender healthcare: why are so many Gen Z women suddenly wanting to change gender?

Cass paints an alarming picture of an anxious and distressed generation of digitally savvy young women and girls, who not only are more exposed to online pornography and the wider problems of the world than any previous generation but also consume more social media and have lower self-esteem and more body hang-ups than their male peers.

When Gids opened in 1989, it treated fewer than ten people each year, mostly males with a long history of gender ­distress. In 2009 it treated 15 adolescent girls. By 2016 that figure had shot up to 1,071.

Cass concludes that such a sudden rise in such a short time cannot be explained alone by greater acceptance of trans identities, which “does not adequately explain” the switch in patient profiles from predominantly male to female. She also says greater investigation of the “consumption of online pornography and gender dysphoria is needed”, pointing to youngsters’ increasingly early exposure to “frequently violent” online material that can have a harmful impact on their self- esteem and body image.

Gen Z is defined as those born between 1995 and 2009. Rather than focusing on the issue of gender in isolation, Cass looked at the context in which adolescents today, who have “grown up with unprecedented online access”, are experiencing such a disproportionate crisis over their gender.

“Generation Z is the generation in which the numbers seeking support from the NHS around their gender identity have increased, so it is important to have some understanding of their experiences and influences,” she writes. “In terms of broader context, Generation Z and Generation Alpha (those born since 2010) have grown up through a global recession, concerns about climate change and most recently the Covid-19 pandemic. Global connectivity has meant that as well as the advantages of international peer networks, they are much more exposed to worries about global threats.”

The report also focuses on 2014, when female referrals to Gids accelerated. Although this is not mentioned, 2014 was the year that CBBC, for example, broadcast I Am Leo, a video-diary-style documentary, to an audience of to 6 to 12-year-olds, showing the positive personal journey of a child who transitioned from female to male.

Throughout almost 400 pages, Cass argues that the gender-related issues of young patients should be treated in the same context as the wider mental health issues facing their entire generation. “The striking increase in young people presenting with gender incongruence/dysphoria needs to be considered within the context of poor mental health and emotional distress among the broader adolescent population, particularly given their high rates of co-existing mental health problems and neurodiversity.” Cass calls for more research into the “complex interplay” between these issues and a teenager’s sudden desire to change gender.

Lack of evidence for medical pathway

Rather than affirming children’s gender identity with medical treatment, the report calls for a holistic approach that examines the causes of their distress. It finds that, despite being incorporated into medical guidelines around the world, the use of “gender-affirming” medical treatment such as puberty blockers is based on “wholly inadequate” evidence. Doctors are cautious when adopting new treatments, but Cass says “quite the reverse happened in the field of gender care for children”, with thousands of children put on an unproven medical pathway.

Cass says gender care is “an area of remarkably weak evidence” and that results of studies “are exaggerated or misrepresented by people on all sides of the debate”. She adds: “The reality is that we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes of interventions to manage gender-related distress.”

The report finds that treatment on the NHS since 2011 has largely been informed by two sets of international guidelines, drawn up by the Endocrine Society and the World Professional Association of Transgender Healthcare (WPATH), but that these lack scientific rigour. The WPATH has been “highly influential in directing international practice, although its guidelines were found by the University of York’s appraisal to lack developmental rigour and transparency”, Cass says.

The report says the NHS must work to improve the evidence base.

Mental health

Mental health issues could be presenting as gender-related distress. Children and young people referred to specialist gender services have higher rates of mental health difficulties than the general population. This includes rates of depression, anxiety and eating dis­orders. Some research studies have suggested transgender people are three to six times more likely to be autistic than the general population, with age and educational attainment taken into account.

Therefore, the report says that the striking increase in young people ­presenting with gender dysphoria needs to be considered within the context of rising levels of poor mental health.

The increase in gender clinic patients “has to some degree paralleled” the deterioration in child and adolescent mental health, it finds. Mental distress, the report says, can present through physical manifestations, such as eating disorders or body dysmorphic disorders. Clinicians were often reluctant to explore or address co-occurring mental health issues in those presenting with gender distress, the report finds. This was because gender dysphoria was not considered to be a mental health ­condition.

The report finds that, compared with the general population, young people referred to gender services had higher rates of neglect; physical, sexual or emotional abuse; parental mental illness or substance abuse; exposure to domestic violence; and loss of a parent through death or abandonment.

Puberty blockers

The report says there was “no evidence” puberty blockers allowed young people “time to think” by delaying the onset of puberty — which was the original rationale for their use. It finds the vast majority of those who start puberty suppression continued on to cross-sex hormones, particularly if they started earlier in puberty.

There was insufficient and inconsistent evidence about the effects of puberty suppression on psychological or psychosocial health, it says, and some young females had a worsening of problems like depression and anxiety.

Cass says there is “some concern” that puberty blockers may actually change “the trajectory of psychosexual and gender identity development”.

Her report warns that blocking the chronological age and sex hormones released during puberty “could have a range of unintended and as yet unidentified consequences”.

It describes adolescence as a time of “identity development, sexual development, sexual fluidity and experimentation”. The report says “blocking” this meant young people had to understand identity and sexuality based only on their discomfort about puberty and an early sense of their gender. Therefore, it adds, there is “no way of knowing” whether the normal trajectory of someone’s sexual and gender identity “may be permanently altered”.

Brain maturation may also be “temporarily or permanently disrupted” by the use of puberty blockers, it says. This could have a significant impact on a young person’s ability to make “complex risk-laden decisions”, as well as possible long-term neuropsychological consequences.

The report highlights the “concern” of young people remaining on puberty blockers into adulthood — sometimes into their mid-twenties. This is partly because some “wish to continue as non-binary” and partly because of ongoing gender indecision, the report says.

Cass adds: “Puberty suppression was never intended to continue for extended periods.”

The report finds young adults who had been discharged from Gids ­“remained on puberty blockers into their early to mid twenties”. A review of audit data suggested 177 patients were discharged while on puberty blockers.

Cass says the review “raised this with NHS England and Gids”, citing the unknown impact of use over an extended period. “The detrimental impact to bone density alone makes this concerning”, the report adds.

A Dutch study originally suggested that puberty blockers might improve psychological wellbeing for a narrow group of children with gender issues.

Following this, the practice “spread at pace to other countries” and in 2011 the UK trialled the use of puberty blockers in an early intervention study.

The results were not formally published until 2020, at which time it showed there was a lack of any positive measurable outcomes. It also found that 98 per cent of people had proceeded to take cross-sex hormones.

Despite this, from 2014 puberty blockers moved from a research-only protocol to being available in routine clinical practice. “The rationale for this is unclear,” the report says.

Puberty blockers were then given to a wider range of adolescents, it says, including patients with no history of gender issues before puberty and those with neurodiversity and complex mental health issues. Clinical practice, Cass found, appeared to have “deviated” from the parameters originally set.

Overall, the report concludes there was a “very narrow ­indication” for the use of puberty blockers in males to stop irreversible ­pubertal changes, while other benefits remained unproven.

It says there were “clearly lessons to be learnt by everyone”.

Social transition

The report concludes it was “possible” that social transition, including the changing of a child’s name and pronouns, may change the trajectory of their gender development. It finds “no clear evidence” social transitioning in childhood has any positive or negative mental health effects, but that children who socially transitioned at an earlier age were more likely to proceed to medical treatment. A more cautious approach to social transition needs to be taken for children than for adolescents, it concludes.

The review also heard concerns from “many parents” about their child being socially transitioned and affirmed in their expressed gender without their involvement. Draft government guidance, published in ­December, stated that schools should not accept all requests for social transition and should involve parents in any decision that is made.

Despite this, there has been evidence of schools ignoring ministers and ­allowing children to change gender ­behind their parents’ backs.

The report makes clear that “parents should be actively involved in decision making” unless there are strong grounds to believe that it may put the child at risk.

It also finds that social debates on trans issues led to fear among doctors and parents, with some concerned about being accused of transphobia.

The interim report, from 2022, had classed social transition as “not a neutral act”. The full report explains that it is an “active intervention”, because it may have significant effects on a young person’s psychological functioning and longer-term outcomes.

In a strong warning to schools, the report describes the need for “clinical involvement” in the decision-making process on social transitioning. It adds: “This is not a role that can be taken by staff without appropriate clinical ­training.”

The report concludes that maintaining flexibility is key among those going down a social transition route and says a “partial transition”, rather than a full one, could help.

In decisions about whether to transition prepubescent children, families should be seen “as early as possible by a clinical professional”.

Rogue private clinics

Long waiting lists for NHS care mean distressed children are turning to private clinics or resorting to “obtaining unregulated and potentially dangerous hormone supplies over the internet”, the report says.

Some NHS GPs have then felt “pressurised to prescribe hormones after these have been initiated by private providers”, and Cass says this should not happen.

The report also urges the Department of Health to consider new legislation to “prevent inappropriate overseas prescribing”. This is intended to tackle a loophole which means that, ­despite the NHS banning the use of ­puberty blockers last month, children can still access them from online clinics such as GenderGP, which is registered in Singapore.

Detransitioning

Cass says some of those who have been through medical transitions “deeply ­regret their earlier decisions”. Her report says the NHS should consider a new specialist service for people who wish to “detransition” and come off hormone treatments. She says people who are detransitioning may be reluctant to return to the service they had previously used.

NHS numbers

The report recommends that the NHS and Department of Health review current practice of issuing new NHS numbers to people who change gender.

Cass suggests that handing out new NHS numbers to trans people means they risk getting lost in the system — making it harder to track their health histories and long-term outcomes.

The review says that this has had “implications for safeguarding and clinical management of these children”, — for example, the type of screening that they are offered.

Toxic debate

Cass has called for an end to the “exceptionally toxic” debates over transgender healthcare after she was vilified online while compiling her review. In a foreword to her 388-page report, the paediatrician said that navigating a culture war over trans rights has made her task over the past four years significantly harder.

She warned that the “stormy social discourse” does little to help young people, who are being let down by a lack of research and evidence. Cass added: “There are few other areas of healthcare where professionals are so afraid to openly discuss their views, where people are vilified on social media, and where name-calling echoes the worst bullying behaviour. This must stop.

“Polarisation and stifling of debate do nothing to help the young people caught in the middle of a stormy social discourse, and in the long run will also hamper the research that is essential to finding the best way of supporting them to thrive.”

Cass said: “Finally, I am aware that this report will generate much discussion and that strongly held views will be expressed. While open and constructive debate is needed, I would urge everybody to remember the children and young people trying to live their lives and the families/ carers and clinicians doing their best to support them. All should be treated with compassion and respect.”

The recommendations

Data collection

Gender identity clinics should offer their data to NHS England for review, and more research should be conducted on the impact of psychosocial intervention — such as therapy — and the use of masculinising and feminising hormones, such as testosterone and oestrogen. Cass recommended that the NHS should also consider data from private clinics.

Puberty blockers and hormone treatment

Cass recommended research to establish the long-term impact of puberty blockers, which is expected to start by December.

Assessment of other conditions

Cass said that children arriving at gender identity services should be screened for conditions such as autism and other neurodevelopmental conditions.

Criteria for medical treatment

When treating children with gender dysphoria, only those who have experienced “longstanding gender incongruence” will be able to get medical treatment. Even then, this will only be available — with “extreme caution” — for over 16s.

A holistic approach

Before any medical intervention, Cass recommends that children should be offered fertility counselling and “preservation” by specialist services. This formed part of a more “holistic” approach to gender identity services. Cass suggested the creation and implementation of a national framework and infrastructure for gender-related care.

Growing into adulthood

The review advised that follow-through services for 17 to 25-year-olds should be established to ensure a continuity of care and support when children grow into adulthood.

Detransitioners

The report proposed that NHS England should “ensure there is provision for people considering detransition”, while recognising that they may not wish to attend services that assisted in their initial gender transition.

[ Via: https://archive.today/7GxDe ]

[mikelsboys]

theres a few i disagree with but let me know what you think

[junker-town]

25 non-Warriors reasons to watch the NBA

There’s a lot more to enjoy about this league.

The Golden State Warriors are overwhelming favorites to win the 2018 NBA championship. The Warriors almost swept through the playoffs last year, and they arguably improved in the offseason. Meanwhile, we aren’t yet sure how much their top challengers improved.

Enough to truly test Golden State? Probably not.

Enough to make the season compelling? Absolutely.

In objection to the binary nature of sports commentary, we are going to completely ignore the Warriors in this preview piece, instead focusing on the 25 reasons you should be excited about the new NBA season even though the Warriors are going to win the title.

This is now a Warriors-free zone.

1. Russell Westbrook has superstar friends again. Westbrook went full Dr. Manhattan last season and was named MVP. It’s going to be fascinating to see how he adjusts to having Paul George and Carmelo Anthony alongside him. George isn’t near the offensive mastermind that Kevin Durant had been, and Carmelo has seemed to acknowledge his powers are waning, so Westbrook should still maintain majority control on that end. But George and Melo provide relief and secondary perimeter attacking points that OKC lacked a bit last season. George’s ace defense will help, too.

2. BOSSton. If you’re not giddy with anticipation to see what Brad Stevens does with Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, something’s wrong. The Whiteboard Jordan helped Isaiah Thomas reach All-NBA status and made a weird, mismatched roster into art. What will he do with high-aesthetic players like dribble-master Irving and a smooth passer and scorer like Hayward? They might not be good enough to beat Cleveland, but it’s going to be fun to see them try.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

3. H-Town. The Rockets, who were awesome last season, went and pulled Chris Paul out of a hat. CP3’s arrival will shift James Harden back to two-guard and give Houston one of the most powerful backcourt attacks in decades. Paul is known as a bit of an on-court control freak, whereas Harden is more a free spirit. Watching them feel each other out and find ways to maximize their abilities should be fascinating.

4. The Conscience Of The NBA. Gregg Popovich isn’t shutting up, and thank goodness. He offered a sermon on media day, and we can expect him to wax philosophical throughout the season. When has a coach’s media availability ever been appointment television? (Since we haven’t mentioned him yet, let’s throw a nod to Kawhi Leonard here. A masterful player who is completely mind-blowing to watch in action.)

5. You Must Be Yoking. Nikola Jokic was a revelation last season, and he’ll have the reins in Denver from Day 1 in 2017-18. With Gary Harris and Jamal Murray developing and a new co-star in Paul Millsap up front, it should only get prettier from here.

6. No More CP3s in L.A. The Chris Paul era in Los Angeles ended rather abruptly, meaning Blake Griffin is back in charge. The good news is that Griffin, when healthy, is a preternaturally gifted creator with the ball who should be able to keep feeding DeAndre Jordan lobs and open shooters clean looks. The bad news is that the best non-Warrior shooter in the business, J.J. Redick, is gone, too. But an unlocked, mature Griffin should be glorious to behold in any case.

7. Zo-Time. Let’s stay in L.A. for a minute and hang out with Lonzo Ball. Skepticism is understood: His jumper form is, uh, interesting and his pops is a menace to airwaves. We don’t know whether he’ll ever be an All-Star. But he will be fun. This is guaranteed. No one who watched his work at UCLA last season, or paid attention to Vegas Summer League, can deny this. If the Lakers cannot yet be good, at least perhaps they can be entertaining.

8. Milos Fever. Milos Teodosic, perhaps the most creative passer in Europe over the past several years, joined the Clippers this summer. It remains to be seen how much he’ll play given his defensive shortcomings and expected heavy roles for Patrick Beverley and Austin Rivers. But with a big target like Jordan running the floor, this could be a highlight reel in the making.

Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

9. The Next Evolution of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Last season, Giannis really put everything together. He became an All-Star and perhaps the second- or third-best player in the Eastern Conference. (Once Jimmy Butler moved west, Giannis claimed that No. 2 spot.) He’s 22 years old. He’s nowhere near maximizing his potential. Giannis has become one of those players where you need to know if he’s playing any given night so you can be prepared to switch over on League Pass.

10. Stan Van Gundy Meltdown Watch. Something gnarly happened in Detroit last year. The Pistons were disappointing in total, but Van Gundy’s particular moves — paying Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond, specifically — didn’t work out. If Detroit starts slow again, Van Gundy might flip into IDGAF mode as he did in his waning days in Orlando. While that’d be painful for Pistons fans, a mad Van Gundy is always a delight for neutral observers.

11. ROOKIES! We mentioned Lonzo already, but heavens there are some incredible first-year prospects in the pipeline. Among just the point guards we have Ball, Markelle Fultz, De’Aaron Fox, Dennis Smith Jr., and Frank Ntilikina. Jayson Tatum, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Lauri Markkanen looked awesome this summer. Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, and Donovan Mitchell have high fun quotients. And let’s not even get into Kyle Kuzma ...

12. Keep Calm Like Porzingis. Having moved on from Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony for different reasons, the Knicks can finally commit to slowly building around Kristaps Porzingis. That’s a shift, and it will be interesting to see how Porzingis steps into the void. We still don’t know whether he’s a future All-Star or he’s a future Best Center in the League. This season will offer guidance.

13. Paul George has a superstar friend for the first time ever. Remember that PG-13 had the Pacers very competitive during the Heatles era with George Hill, Roy Hibbert, David West, and Lance Stephenson as his co-stars. Those were all plus players, and Indiana made its mark on defense, where the supporting cast excelled. But we have not seen George play with an All-Star caliber scorer outside of the weird Indy overlap with Danny Granger. Going from Jeff Teague to Russell Westbrook should be life-changing for PG-13.

14. LeBron. I mean, that’s really all that needs to be said. If LeBron is playing basketball, you should be watching.

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

15. Peanut Butter and Jelly. LeBron lost Kyrie Irving, but he got reinforcements, too: Dwyane Wade signed with Cleveland in the middle of training camp after getting sprung from the Bulls. And their reunion is every bit as glorious from a Banana Boat perspective as you’d imagine! (The basketball perspective? We’ll wait and see.)

16. New Heatles. One of the most disappointing moments of the 2016-17 season was when the Miami Heat fell just a game short of making the playoffs after an incredible mid-season turnaround. Well, they are back. The front office retained the roster to great expense and added Kelly Olynyk. If they start the season like they finished the last one, the East had better watch out.

17. Kemba Walker. The Hornets’ watchability is directly correlated to how much Kemba is feeling himself in any given moment.

@KembaWalker ➡️ @DwightHoward #BuzzCity http://pic.twitter.com/agy4ESGlqH

— Charlotte Hornets (@hornets) October 9, 2017

18. The John Wall-Brad Beal Encore. The Wizards hit their stride last year thanks to health and camaraderie. Wall is deeply underrated as a passer and attacker; everyone knows Beal can shoot and scoot to the rim. The dual attack is really something.

19. Guards Galore! Speaking of which: The East is relatively weak compared to the West, especially at the team level. But holy smoke the East has some fantastic guards, from Kyrie and Isaiah Thomas to Kemba, Wall, Beal, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Goran Dragic. If you like guard play, those early East games usually have something for you. (Just don’t watch the Knicks, Pacers, or Bulls.)

20. Isaiah Thomas might explode into flames. It’s a scientific fact: every time someone in a position of power doubts Isaiah, he gets stronger. That’s why he was so successful entering the league as the No. 60 pick. That’s why he became a 20-point scorer after coming off the bench behind Jimmer Fredette. That’s why he became an All-Star in Boston after the Suns pawned him off. And that’s why he’ll drop 50 in a game for Cleveland after Boston traded him. Provided his hip doesn’t keep him off the court too long, he’s going to be a maniac this season.

21. Boogie And The Brow. DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis were thrown together with the Pelicans already in peril of missing the playoffs last year. Now they have a training camp together, plus Jrue Holiday and Boogie-whisperer Rajon Rondo in the backcourt. The Pels remain desperate for shooting, but the whole roster and organization is desperate enough to win — Davis and Cousins for their reputations, Alvin Gentry and Dell Demps for their jobs — that something magical is possible. And if something magical does not happen and the Pels disappoint ... well, that will be its own kind of magic, won’t it?

Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

22. Blaze On. Portland didn’t solve its major roster problems in the summer (hello Evan Turner), but Damian Lillard continues to set a high bar, C.J. McCollum continues to impress, and Jusuf Nurkic looks to be in shape and healthy in the preseason. I dare say the Blazers will be shockingly fun this year.

23. The Pack Survives. For the first time in more than a decade, the Timberwolves are going to be straight-up good. Adding Tom Thibodeau to a team led by Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins didn’t do the trick a year ago. Adding Jimmy Butler? That’ll do it. The Wolves’ Thibsian style of play may not be too aesthetically pleasing to the masses, but watching the growth of a future MVP like Towns, a manageable role for Wiggins, and a happy environment for Butler — that should be joyous in its own right. Minnesotans have suffered long enough. Go get ‘em, Wolves.

24 Brotherly Love. Perhaps the most intriguing, endearing, and exciting team to watch early this season will be the Philadelphia 76ers. They have two Rookie of the Year candidates, the two runners-up for Rookie of the Year last year, J.J. Redick, assorted other fun youngsters, and a coach with the most inexplicable accent in the nation. Most of all, they have Joel Hans Embiid, a damn good player molded for internet godliness. He’s funny, he’s brash, he’s completely self-aware. And we just might get more than 1,000 minutes of him on the court this season. It’s Embiid’s time. Treasure every second.

25. Revenge LeBron. Look, Kyrie requested a trade while playing under LeBron’s tutelage. Kyrie’s Cavaliers were winning 30 games a year before LeBron came back. And this is the thanks LeBron gets? Dude’s going to be mad when the Cavaliers line up across from the Celtics on opening night. Mad mad mad mad mad.

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Fantasy Basketball position tiers: Shooting guard values for 2017-18

James Harden will once again be among the first players off the board in fantasy drafts. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Alex Rikleen, RotoWire Special to Yahoo Sports

Before we get into the 2017-18 shooting guard tiers, here are a few notes to keep in mind:

Overall, the tiers cover players projected to rank roughly among the top 120 overall. Within each tier, players are generally listed in the order in which they should be drafted. Of course, come draft night, team construction and roster constraints must be take into account.

[Now’s the time to sign up for Fantasy Basketball! Join for free]

Unless otherwise noted, players are listed only within the positions at which they are currently eligible in Yahoo Fantasy Basketball leagues. Tiers and season rankings are tailored to nine-category league settings.

Most players are ranked within the tiers at more than one position, rather than only their primary position, which is oftentimes arbitrary. Players who do not have multiple-position eligibility are denoted with an asterisk. 

[Positional tiers: PGs | SGs | SFs | PFs | Cs]

Tier I: Possible No. 1 Overall Picks

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks Stephen Curry, Warriors James Harden, Rockets Kawhi Leonard, Spurs

While Harden is a turnover machine, he’s been top-five in eight-category settings over the past five seasons, including a first overall ranking last season. He also remains within the top 10 in nine-category play.

Curry and Harden should also give managers some comfort due to their durability. Since the start of the 2012-13 season, Curry has missed only an average of 3.2 games per season, while Harden has missed just 3.0.

We covered Antetokounmpo in the small forward and power forward tiers, but the possibility that he adds shooting guard — and possible point guard — eligibility as the season goes on means that he warrants inclusion here, too.

Tier II: Confident Second-Round Values

Jimmy Butler, Timberwolves Chris Paul, Clippers

Butler and Paul are firmly outside of the top tier, and comfortably ahead of the tier below. Both carry major question marks after changing teams this offseason. Tom Thibodeau’s starters often rank among the league leaders in minutes, but Butler is also joining far superior supporting cast to the one he left behind in Chicago.

Paul is an injury risk, and he joins another ball-dominant guard in Harden. On the other hand, Mike D’Antoni’s style has a history of inflating numbers, and Paul has been a top-20 player every season since he entered the league.

Tier III: Three-point Shooters And More

Gordon Hayward, Celtics Kyrie Irving, Celtics Klay Thompson, Warriors C.J. McCollum, Trail Blazers

The two newcomers in Boston are likely to dominate offensive touches for a team that lost three of its top four scorers from last season, and both players could be in position to gain fantasy value in their new uniforms.

Thompson and McCollum return to familiar rotations that saw minimal offseason turnover, but that’s not a problem for two top-30 fantasy producers entering their primes.

The three-point shooting in this tier is worth extra attention. If a manager doesn’t have a three-point specialist by the time this tier is off the board, very few options will be available. Of course, Bradley Beal looms in Tier IV, but after him, managers will be stuck pinning their hopes on guys like Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, or J.J. Redick.

Tier IV: Core Contributors

Khris Middleton, Bucks Bradley Beal, Wizards* Eric Bledsoe, Suns Gary Harris, Nuggets Jrue Holiday, Pelicans Trevor Ariza, Rockets Nicolas Batum, Hornets DeMar DeRozan, Raptors Goran Dragic, Heat

Middleton, Harris, Ariza, and Batum are strong foundational players who provide across-the-board help and do essentially no harm. This tier also features a couple of talented point guards — Bledsoe, Dragic — who benefit from shooting guard eligibility. Holiday is currently only eligible at point guard, but the Pelicans’ addition of Rajon Rondo makes it highly probable that shooting guard eligibility will be coming soon.

Beal and DeRozan are less-balanced than the rest of this group, but they are both talented scorers who should be among the league leaders in minutes at the position. They each carry their own drawbacks – Beal is one of few players without eligibility at multiple positions, and DeRozan provides barely replacement-level (or worse) value outside of his scoring and free throws – but their respective strengths are strong enough to buoy their value.

Tier V: Good Fantasy Starters With Potential

Avery Bradley, Pistons Zach LaVine, Bulls Patrick Beverley, Clippers Victor Oladipo, Pacers Devin Booker, Suns* D’Angelo Russell, Nets Jeremy Lin, Nets

While it’s hard to imagine any of these players cracking the top 25, one could make a convincing case for any of them as top-40 candidates, and several things would have to go wrong for them to land outside the top 80.

LaVine is recovering from a major injury, but once healthy he’ll be the primary option on a Bulls squad bereft of talent. Beverley, Oladipo, Russell, and Lin should each benefit from shallow depth charts, while Bradley is only 26-years-old and continues to improve. Booker has not yet finished inside the top 100, but managers will have to pay up for the Suns’ rising star, who will be a popular breakout candidate.

Tier VI: So Much Potential, So Many Doubts

George Hill, Kings Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves Eric Gordon, Rockets*

After switching teams this summer, Hill remains a huge injury risk, and it’s unknown how he and rookie De’Aaron Fox will split playmaking duties. Wiggins’ development has lagged behind his expectations, and the arrival of Jimmy Butler will likely reduce his impact. Gordon, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, is an even bigger injury risk than Hill, and it remains to be seen how he’ll fit in after the addition of Chris Paul.

Tier VII: Great Situations, Questionable Talent

Buddy Hield, Kings* Evan Fournier, Magic J.J. Redick, 76ers*

Deserving or not, the Kings will give Hield every chance to develop into the go-to scorer in a new-look offense. Fox should bring some relief, and Hield showed some promise after the DeMarcus Cousins trade, shooting nearly 43 percent from three over the final 25 games of the season.

Fournier is the best offensive option on a surefire lottery team – so does it matter that he probably wouldn’t crack the rotation on many playoff teams? At 33-years-old, Redick is well past his prime, but he’s aged well thus far and is a perfect fit for the talented, young Sixers.

Tier VIII: Low-end Fantasy Starters

Dwyane Wade Malcolm Brogdon Seth Curry Kentavious Caldwell-Pope* Tyler Johnson Darren Collison Reggie Jackson

Players in this tier might end up as waiver fodder, but they have better-than-even odds of achieving steady fantasy value at some point this season. Wade can still put together quality numbers, but he’s likely to be bought out at some point, which makes him a bit more difficult to project.

Curry and Collison should have plenty of opportunity on weak rosters. On the other hand, Brogdon and Jackson are misfits — players who are better, statistically, in roles other than the ones they are likely to fill.

Tier IX: Low-end Roster Fillers

Wesley Matthews, Mavericks Joe Ingles, Jazz Tim Hardaway, Jr., Knicks Jamal Murray, Nuggets Kent Bazemore, Hawks Rodney Hood, Jazz Jordan Clarkson, Lakers

Many of the most intriguing players in the final two tiers are eligible at multiple positions, so fitting Brandon Ingram or Jaylen Brown onto your roster may not be too much of a burden. For the most part, though, these players either lack multi-dimensional production or are simply too much of an unknown to warrant consideration earlier in drafts.

Of the three rookies listed, Jackson is the most interesting, as he’ll likely start from day one and could offer solid production in the defensive categories. However, his jumpshot and free throw shooting are major concerns.

Tier X: The Rest

Dion Waiters, Heat Brandon Ingram, Lakers Will Barton, Nuggets Jaylen Brown, Celtics Malik Monk, Hornets* Lou Williams, Clippers Donovan Mitchell, Jazz* Josh Jackson, Suns

More Fantasy coverage from Yahoo Sports

[buddyrabrahams]

Five teams with the best shot of knocking off the Cavs in the East

Cleveland has found itself in an unexpected position this offseason. Following the team’s second NBA Finals loss in three years to the Golden State Warriors, the general NBA populace entered the summer months assuming the Cavs would retain their core and take another stab at Golden State next June.

Despite all the inevitable offseason jockeying, in the end we’d have LeBron, Kyrie, and Kevin Love versus the 2K Team for the title…again.

But, wait, what’s that?

Life comes at you fast. Though we may still find ourselves with a rematch in the Finals, the odds of that happening now appear slimmer than they did just one month ago.

Cavs owner Dan Gilbert chose not to re-sign general manager David Griffin — a decision that was unpopular with the players. The Cavs feverishly tried to trade for Paul George — and thought they had an agreement in place to do so — but fell short. And lastly, of course, ESPN discovered the news that has the NBA spinning — Kyrie Irving, tired of playing second banana to LeBron James, has made it very clear he wants to be traded.

Irving reportedly gave the Cavs a list of four teams that he’d be willing to go to: the Knicks (his hometown team), Timberwolves (an organization on the rise with an established head coach), Spurs (stability), and Heat (stability).

Regardless of whether the Cavs are able to remedy the Irving-James situation (don’t count on it) and retain Kyrie, it seems Cleveland will be vulnerable next season. After making it seven years in a row, could this be the year LeBron finally misses the Finals?

Below are the five teams with the best shot to overtake the Cavs in the East.

5. Toronto Raptors

It seems everyone is down on the Raptors right now, and with good reason. Though Toronto has been a top-three regular season team in the East for the past two seasons, the squad has faltered in the postseason. They’ll get their 50 wins, sure, but nobody considers them a legitimate threat.

This offseason, the Raptors somewhat surprisingly doubled down on the present. Some expected a rebuild. Instead, the team signed Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka to big deals (which some might say were too big).

Though these decisions were questionable from a long-term perspective, Toronto’s free agency strategy ensured the team would be competitive with the best of the East for the foreseeable future.

The Raptors likely do not currently have the talent to dethrone Cleveland. In the 2015-16 Eastern Conference Finals, Toronto pushed the Cavs to six games, but anyone who watched the series knows it wasn’t that close. In the 2016-17 semifinals, the Cavs played full-throttle from the outset, and they coasted to a sweep.

Cleveland has clearly been the superior team in this matchup. So, what could change?

For one, the rosters could change. Toronto has been shopping big man Jonas Valanciunas. If a couple pieces move, there’s an outside shot the tide of this head-to-head matchup could turn.

And while Cleveland is in the midst of such chaos, you can’t undersell the importance of stability. Toronto’s core (Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, coach Dwane Casey) has been together since 2012. That’s an eternity in the modern NBA.

Maybe this is the year everything clicks, the Raptors make some shrewd moves before the deadline, and they capitalize on a weakened Cleveland squad. But probably not. This is a longshot.

4. Miami Heat

As I mentioned above, the Heat were one of four teams Irving said he would be willing to go to.

But, they missed the playoffs. So, why would Irving have interest in them?

Well, they have a stable front office (Pat Riley), a top-tier head coach (Erik Spoelstra), and some solid role players on good contracts. They’re competitive every year and are in a good place financially for the coming years. Oh, and it’s South Beach.

Forget the irony of Irving bolting Cleveland for Miami and consider this: if you’re a free agent or just an unhappy player, is there any franchise/city combination more appealing than that of Miami? If you were in his shoes, why wouldn’t you want to go there?

The Heat have a decent core — Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters have blossomed together in the backcourt, Hassan Whiteside is a dominant force inside, and Kelly Olynyk was a good signing — and they flourished down the stretch this spring, but they’re this high on the list because they’re so well positioned to make a move.

Though the Heat missed out on the marquee free agent targets they coveted in Gordon Hayward (Boston) and Blake Griffin (back with the Clippers), they’re lurking.

The Heat already had tons of cap space, then they were relieved of Chris Bosh’s hit against the cap.

Miami has all of its chess pieces positioned to make a big move. It may not come this offseason, but they’re a team to watch until the trade deadline in February. With some small changes, they’d be a scary second-round matchup.

3. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks’ present dreams of what could be. This team appears to be the future of the East, as anyone who watched this year’s first round of the playoffs could contend.

Milwaukee has positioned itself brilliantly. It has a promising coach (Jason Kidd) and a stable of good young players under contract for years to come.

This team is centered on Giannis Antetokounmpo, the 22-year-old “Greek Freak.” In this year’s playoffs, Antetokounmpo showed how close he is to “being there.” He turned heads in the team’s first-round loss to Toronto, averaging 24.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game.

He led the Bucks in all five categories this season and became the first NBA player ever to finish the season in the top 20 in total points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. How about that? This kid’s special.

It’s not just about Giannis, though. Milwaukee has Malcolm Brogdon (the NBA’s Rookie of the Year and future U.S. President), Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker, and a promising big in Thon Maker, in addition to some solid complementary players.

The Bucks are still a bit raw, and they might not be ready this year, but they’re coming soon. Their length and skill — they can switch so effortlessly on D — has the whole NBA on notice.

2. Washington Wizards

The Wizards’ long-term prognosis is now clear, as John Wall recently re-signed — finally! He agreed to a four-year, $170 million extension.

So, why did he take so long to make up his mind? It might have been a little bit of vengeance for Washington re-signing Bradley Beal to a max deal before him.

That’s all history at this point. Beal is under contract through 2020-21, and Wall is now inked through 2022-23. That means this backcourt is the organization’s centerpiece for the next four years.

Does Washington have enough right now to knock off Cleveland? Doubtful. But if the Wizards gain a piece, or Cleveland loses a piece, a series between these teams could get really interesting.

Imagine the disparity in the backcourt if the Cavs didn’t have Kyrie and were instead trotting out the injury-riddled Derrick Rose and J.R. Smith to try to hang with Wall and Beal. The Wall/Beal duo might outscore them by 60.

The Wizards also brought back Otto Porter Jr. and have a budding young wing in Kelly Oubre Jr. (Kelly Olynyk’s nemesis). Though it would take a herculean effort from Washington’s 1A and 1B options, they’re good enough to be considered a legitimate challenger.

1. Boston Celtics

The Celtics just get it. Danny Ainge knows how to run an organization.

Look at the moves he’s made over the years and, with perhaps the exception of the Fab Melo/Jared Sullinger 2012 draft, Ainge has a nearly flawless track record. Consider the Isaiah Thomas trade, picking up Jae Crowder as a throwaway in the Rajon Rondo deal, and — of course — the Paul Pierce/KG deal with the Nets.

This summer, Ainge has shined yet again. In addition to snagging Jayson Tatum in the draft — a pick that looks even better after Summer League — Boston added Gordon Hayward, an All-NBA caliber player who’s still improving.

The team also made a sneaky-good trade in flipping Avery Bradley for Marcus Morris. Though Bradley may be the better player head-to-head, Morris’ contract situation is superior (Bradley is going to get paid next summer, while the 27-year-old Morris is on a bargain deal), and Morris provides something the Celtics sorely needed: toughness inside. Boston may have improved in the short-term and long-term as a result of the trade.

Even if the Cavs retain Kyrie, the new-look Celtics should be able to give them a run for their money. If Cleveland loses Irving, however, and does not improve as a result of the trade, Boston could very well advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010.

Though the Cavs remain the favorites in the East, the Celtics should make Cleveland fans anxious.

from Larry Brown Sports http://ift.tt/2w4ey6Z

[theqgentleman]

2017 NBA Playoff Preview

There are more exciting teams to watch in this year’s playoffs than just the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors.

With the playoffs starting this Saturday, most of the sports world is predicting the two teams to meet once more, especially since this is the third straight year the Warriors have won 65 games or more, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson play in the bay, LeBron James is playing at a high level for the Cavaliers and the Northeast Ohio team is fully equipped with three of the top 25 players in the game—LeBron, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.

But the playoffs are loaded with 14 other teams that are must see TV.

Let’s keep in in the East. The Boston Celtics are a fun team to watch, especially with the grit, skill-level and tenacity Isaiah Thomas exhibits on a nightly basis. Standing at essentially 5’11, Thomas has produced one of the more prolific seasons in a decorated Boston Celtic history, averaging, 29.2 points, 5.9 assists and 2.7 rebounds. No, he is not the old Isiah Thomas from the Detroit Pistons that dominated 1980s, but he is an astonishing cross between former Philadelphia 76er Allen Iverson and Steph Curry of the Golden State Warriors.

Traveling down the Eastern seaboard to the nation’s capital, the Wizards are demonstrating they are a remarkable team to watch. Former Kentucky Wildcat and current point guard of the Wizards John Wall is an all-around point guard who fundamentally displays why he is one of the top point guards in the game. His frame of 6’4, which imposes superiority over smaller point guards around the league, ball handling ability, excellent feel for running an offense, athleticism and defensive prowess are among the tools he has in his arsenal.

Wall’s averages of 23.1 points, 10.7 assists and 2.1 steals are gaudy, but he is assisted by his sidekick in Bradley Beal, who is a poor man’s version of Ray Allen.

Taking a trip north of the border, the Toronto Raptors have remerged as one of the top teams in the East after a slow start earlier in the year. Led by Villanova-product Kyle Lowry, this team can make some noise in the Eastern Conference.

Lowry provides relentless drive to get to the hoop, excellent three-point shot making ability and a great feel for leading his offense into getting good shots. His 22.7 points, 6.9 assists and 4.8 assists a game will carry the team to at least to a second round appearance. And, with the skilled and athletic DeMar DeRozan, this team could make it back to the Eastern Conference Finals, especially since they proved last year they could take the Cavaliers to a game six of the conference finals.

The Atlanta Hawks are an intriguing team to watch for the simple fact they lost Jeff Teague to the Indiana Pacers and Kyle Korver to the Cavaliers, but they are still a scrappy team that can give teams fits.

Led by Dwight Howard and Pau Millsap, this team likes to bang inside. Their perimeter players of Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway Jr., though, operate outside the paint.

One thing comes to mind when thinking about the Milwaukee Bucks: the Greek Freak. Giannis Antetokounmpo is truly a next generation superstar. Right now, he is a star still trying to find out how to use his athletic gifts; he can handle, pass to set up his teammates for good shots, rebound amongst the trees in the middle and can play outstanding defense because of his 6’11 frame.

Jimmy Butler is the engine that makes the Chicago Bulls nowadays. With a tough defensive mindset, Butler can also score in bunches with his 25 points a game. Butler will have to be the player to watch as Dwyane Wade has just returned from his elbow injury. It will take Wade—a three-time champion with the Miami Heat—a few games to get back on track.

It will be interesting to see how Rajon Rondo performs, however.  Once considered one of the best point guards in the NBA when playing for the Celtics just a few years ago, Rondo now tries to find himself alongside Butler, but he is still a very good passer, defender, rebounder and floor general.

Paul George is a superstar player in the NBA as he tries to lead his Indiana Pacers to a deep playoff run. George is a prolific all-around player with his ability to score at will, handling superiority, passing, lock-down defense and leading capabilities. Before his gruesome injury in 2014 at the summer Olympics in which he broke his leg, George was consistently challenging the Miami Heat—backwhen LeBron James was on the team—in the Eastern Conference Finals.

His team, though, is just not as talented as they lost key players David West and Roy Hibbert, who were two low-post anchors used to challenge virtually any team three to four years ago. Lance Stephenson just came back, so maybe this will help the Pacers win a few more games in the playoffs.

Heading out to the Western Conference, where many would presume the competition is a lot stiffer, there are many intriguing teams—much like the East—that have real shots at making a deep run in the playoffs.

The San Antonio Spurs are the second best team in the Western Conference, and it has a lot to do with their deep team, as well as Pop’s tactical coaching strategy, one that employs the offensive system to continually move the ball, make hard cuts and play great defense, which, of course, is basketball 101.

Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard is an MVP candidate. His 25.7 points per game is the highest scoring average of his career, a feat that has many folks who follow the NBA in awe. Leonard—after his 2014 NBA Finals MVP year—has really developed himself into not only a great defensive player, but a great offensive player, one that can handle the ball with the best of them, can shoot well from mid-range and can pass the ball in precision.

Let’s not forget the Spurs acquired LaMarcus Aldridge last year. Aldridge is a sensational post-up player, and, of course, can score at will. With Tim Duncan retired, the Spurs will lean on Leonard and savvy veterans Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, two players that helped Duncan win four titles in 11 years.

For years Mike D’Antoni was the laughing stock of the NBA because his philosophy is run-and-gun, shoot a lot threes, but play no defense. After being in the NBA’s basement as the coach with the Los Angeles Lakers and an assistant coach with the Philadelphia 76ers the past two years, D’Antoni has reemerged as a mastermind, a perception not bestowed upon him since his day with the Phoenix Suns when former Phoenix Sun’s point guard Steve Nash was winning MVPs.

D’Antoni switched this year’s MVP candidate James Harden from shooting guard to point guard, and it has worked as the Rockets currently are the third best team in the West. With his stubbly and thick beard, Harden combines his extraordinary dribbling ability with his innate gift to shoot threes and draw contact from defenders.

The Rockets will be a tough out for any team, and Harden’s 29.2 points, 11.2 assists and 8.1 rebounds averages are worth the price of admission.

For the first time since the 2011-2012 season, the Utah Jazz will be in the playoffs. But this time they will be led by former Butler prodigy and current Jazz star Gordon Hayward, a dynamic small forward who can handle the basketball, shoot the three and has a knack for finding the driving lanes.

One aspect that is worth watching about Hayward—besides his 22.5 points per contest—is his instinctive ability to probe the perimeter off of screens, and know when to make the right play for his team. He has underrated athleticism as well.

Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are always a doozy to watch, especially when Paul is able to hook up with Griffin off of pick and rolls. Last year, both Paul and Griffin were injured in the first round against the Portland Trail Blazers, as Paul suffered a broken hand and Griffin with a quad injury.

It’ll be interesting to see how these players respond after such unfortunate circumstances last year.

Ever since Kevin Durant left last summer to join the Warriors, Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook has taken the NBA by storm. Yes, he is averaging a triple double with his 31.7 points, 10.4 assists and 10.7 assists. Westbrook on Sunday just set the all-time triple doubles record with 42, passing Oscar Robertson.

Westbrook plays at a hundred miles an hour and he makes a lot of plays for himself and his teammates. With Westbrook going 100 percent of the time on offense, it will be a tragedy for anyone to miss Oklahoma City’s run.

In a stunning turn of events, the Memphis Grizzlies actually pulled off a win against the Warriors on Feb. 10, and that is in large part due to the play of Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. The trio has been together for half a decade, but they are still going strong.

Randolph’s low-post game is fantastic, while Gasol’s post-up and mid-range ability and Conley’s ability to handle the ball and switch gears to get to the rim are fun to watch. If this team gets past the first round, the Warriors should be perturbed.

Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum of the Portland Trail Blazers are among the best guard combos in the NBA, which means they are must-see television despite them flirting with a losing winning percentage.

Lillard is this generation’s Isiah Thomas, but not the one who currently plays, rather the one who won two championships with the Detroit Pistons in 1989 and 1990. McCollum has off-the-ball skills like former Celtic and Heat great Ray Allen. He is also a very good shooter on and off the dribble.

These two players will give fits to any player in the playoffs.

As we count down to the NBA playoffs, remember, these 14 other teams are must-see television despite the likelihood the Cavs and the Warriors will meet again for the third straight season.

[junker-town]

NBA free agents 2017: Ranking the top 50

This free agent class is top-heavy, but falls off thereafter. Here are our rankings by position.

The NBA has already seen one major shake-up with the Jimmy Butler trade to the Timberwolves on draft night. More moves are sure to come, both before the end of June as cap space expires and once midnight strikes on July 1, when NBA free agency opens.

The 2017 NBA free agent class is relatively shallow, with some mammoth names up high (including five 2016-17 NBA All-Stars), a few young blue chippers, and a metric ton of situational role players. Power forward and point guard are rather deep in this class, whereas there are few decent available centers or shooting guards.

Teams are going to have to get creative, in other words.

We’re presenting our NBA free agent rankings somewhat differently this year. We pulled together a list of the top 50 free agents overall, then sorted them by position. (We listed them in the position they played the most last season, according to Basketball-Reference’s play-by-play data.) As such, we don’t have an overall top 50 ranking, or even a top 10 for each position.

Needless to say, with such shaky options outside of the marquee stars, this is all rather subjective. Some players not listed in these rankings could easily be better fits for specific teams’ situations than the players listed. We’ll leave those decisions up to the general managers.

Let’s get to it.

NOTE: We updated these rankings on June 29 to reflect Chris Paul’s decision to opt in and the Mavericks’ decision to decline their option on Dirk Nowitzki.

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

Point guards

1. Stephen Curry

Curry isn’t going anywhere, of course. But he is the No. 2 overall free agent in this class behind Kevin Durant. It’s worth noting that the Warriors are going to re-sign the top two free agents in 2017 with two other All-Stars already locked up on the roster. Good grief.

2. Kyle Lowry

Lowry might have been the best guard in the Eastern Conference this season until an elbow injury derailed his All-NBA campaign. Lowry blossomed into an all-star in Toronto, but the franchise has vowed changes after a disappointing sweep by the Cavaliers. The Raptors are already paying DeMar DeRozan more than $30 million per season. Can they pay the backcourt $65-70 million a year and build a competitive team around them? Perhaps not.

The Raptors’ saving grace may be that few teams have needs at point guard and big salary space to lock up with a 31-year-old. Lowry’s worth a massive contract, but this might be the wrong year to maximize his earnings with more affordable options right behind him.

3. George Hill

Hill helped bring Utah along as a game-changer in the backcourt despite missing 33 games due to injury. He’s not the scorer, passer, or playmaker that CP3 or Lowry are, but like those two, Hill is a steadying force. Utah would love to bring him back, but a salary crunch and big offers out there for Hill may lead him to leave.

If Hill’s medical records check out, he’d be a huge aid to a team looking to make a leap with a need at point guard. The Bucks, Nuggets, and Pelicans would be stellar landing spots if they can open the space.

4. Jrue Holiday

Holiday struggled to find his way with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, but the trio came along as the season wrapped up. The Pelicans are in a bind: if they don’t pay up to retain Holiday, they don’t have cap space to chase someone like Lowry, Hill, or someone slightly lower on this list. It’s much easier to pay big for Holiday than pay slightly less for Jeff Teague or Patty Mills because of Bird rights.

Holiday can defend — a must for this team at the point — and is a passable deep shooter. Time may be all he and the Twin Towers need to make it work, provided he can remain healthy.

5. Jeff Teague

Teague put up good numbers for a shaky Pacers team. Based on the Paul George situation, it seems unlikely Indiana will be interested in paying heavily to keep Teague around, though you never know.

He’s a classic overpay candidate, though: he scores and passes well, he’s not yet 30, and he looks the part. The only thing that can hurt him is the imbalanced point guard market this summer.

6. Patty Mills

Mills has an impeccable reputation as a teammate, and he’ll only be 29 next season. He’s never been a full-time starter, though, and he’s not quite as potent a scorer as Hill, to say nothing of Holiday or Teague. But given that he’s likely to sign for less than $20 million per season, he could be a nice starter for a younger team. He’d be very nice in Orlando. Depending on how the Knicks want to bring Frank Ntilikina along, he could fit there, too.

7. Derrick Rose

Rose feels like empty calories at this point. With the right coach and teammates, he could turn into a top-drawer back-up point guard. You just wonder if he’s ready to follow that path or if he still believes he can still be an all-star (which he cannot). Seeing what market develops for him this summer should be fascinating.

8. Darren Collison

Collison has actually been solid for the Kings over the last couple of years, and he’s quite a shooter. There’s a strong possibility Sacramento will re-sign him to help bring De’Aaron Fox along, but he could end up as a back-up somewhere for $10-12 million per season.

9. Shaun Livingston

Livingston doesn’t put up numbers, shoot threes, or set up his teammates too much. But he’s a fierce defender, a high-character teammate, and the post-up god of point guards. If the Warriors can’t afford to keep him, he’ll likely fit in anywhere he goes.

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Shooting guards

1. J.J. Redick

Redick is clearly the best shooting guard available, and it seems highly likely he’ll leave the Clippers. It speaks to the value of Redick’s skills that L.A. -- with world-class scorers CP3 and Blake Griffin — made it a point to get Redick shots early and often. Redick has also built himself into a fair defender despite a persistent size and speed disadvantage. He knows where he needs to be on both ends.

A huge contract in the wrong situation, though, could be a disaster. He needs a point guard to set him up and a strong wing defender to bail him out of tough assignments. Brooklyn has long seemed like a smart match, but D’Angelo Russell’s presence isn’t perfect. If the Pistons revamp their backcourt, a reunion with Stan Van Gundy could be fruitful.

2. Dion Waiters

Waiters had an incredible contract year — one for the history books. It’s too bad Miami fell just short of the playoffs so that Waiters couldn’t hit a dagger in Cleveland. This year, Waiters found his true calling: as the new Jamal Crawford. Some team -- quite possibly the Heat, or maybe his hometown 76ers — has to realize this and pay him big dollars to chase his destiny.

3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Restricted)

Caldwell-Pope, like pretty much everyone else in a Pistons jersey last season, fell short of expectations. He’s a high-potential defender who would be a blue-chip stud if he could hit threes at a higher rate. As it is, he’s an inefficient scorer due to his inability to attack the rim. That leads to few free throws and too many long twos.

Caldwell-Pope is a restricted free agent. You wonder if some team will be bold enough to offer up a max contract to see if Van Gundy will commit. The two-guard market is extremely shallow.

4. Jonathon Simmons (Restricted)

Simmons is Tony Allen for a new generation, with less marketing genius. The Spurs have an advantage with restricted status, but someone could certainly sneak in there with a quick offer sheet as San Antonio attempts to make a big move. Paying Simmons $15 million a year seems like a huge risk given his lack of offensive punch.

5. Tim Hardaway, Jr. (Restricted)

Hardaway has no lack of offensive punch. If Paul Millsap leaves the Hawks but Hardaway comes back, he could end up as Atlanta’s leading scorer! It’d be empty calories in large part, though: Hardaway isn’t much of a defender or a playmaker for others.

There’s a big risk that with a larger shooting load, his efficiency will crash. He’s shot quite well on two-pointers without drawing many fouls: that’s a volatile situation to be in. In addition, he already takes a high volume of threes. Any additional threes could be especially tough, and lower his long-range efficiency.

There is danger in these waters.

6. Kyle Korver

Korver’s at the end of his career, but he is extremely good at an extremely important skill. That’s worth some dough.

7. Manu Ginobili

Ginobili may very well retire. We thought that could be the case a year ago as well ... and he ended up with a nice eight-figure contract. So long as Ginobili wants to play in the NBA, he should be paid handsomely to do so. The world needs Manu more than ever.

Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr/Getty Images

Small forwards

1. Gordon Hayward

Hayward is one of the biggest prizes of free agency, and it’s easy to see why. Hayward’s an ascendant highly efficient scorer who moves the ball well and is just 27 years old. He may not be an All-NBA caliber player, but he’s quite possibly a regular all-star over the length of his next contract. You dream about landing players like this in free agency. Kevin Durant was the only better player to switch teams in free agency a year ago.

Utah has home-court advantage both in terms of total guaranteed salary and comfort level. But Hayward will look around, and he could make a massive difference for a new team like Boston or Miami.

2. Otto Porter (Restricted)

Porter finally came along in his fourth season, just in time to shore up a max-level second contract. It’s incredibly unlikely he’ll earn it anywhere other than Washington, D.C., since Porter is a restricted free agent. The Wizards didn’t make Bradley Beal sign a max offer sheet elsewhere a year ago, and they are unlikely to change course with Porter.

Otto is a solid wing defender who became an incredibly high-efficiency scorer in 2016-17. If he were an unrestricted free agent at age 24, there’d be a huge battle for his services, as there will be for Hayward. But Porter fits right in with the Wizards, and they’ll gladly be the ones to pay him big bucks.

3. Rudy Gay

Gay at No. 3 coming off a ruptured Achilles shows you how shallow the small forward position will be in this market, especially considering Porter’s restricted status. But Gay is an impressive old-school scorer who was decently efficient playing off DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. He’s no stopper on defense, but he’s better than most give him credit for being. He is a stopper — a ball-stopper — on offense, though. That means fit is incredibly important.

Gay would be a nice reserve scorer if a team has salary flexibility to slot him in that role and he embraces it.

4. Andre Iguodala

The NBA Finals were anticlimactic, but they served to ensure Iguodala gets paid one way or another. He looked downright spry after a hobbled close to the season, and his clutch defense on LeBron James showed he still has it.

If he leaves Golden State -- perhaps a necessity unless the Warriors are willing to pay huge gobs of luxury tax or Iguodala is willing to sign for only a year or two -- fit will be a huge concern. Iguodala needs to be on a team with plenty of scoring and shooting. You wonder if Boston would make a run at him if the Hayward and Paul George gambits fall through.

5. C.J. Miles

It seems impossible that C.J. Miles just turned 30 at the end of the regular season. The power of the preps-to-pro black mirror knows no bounds.

Miles is just a very solid NBA wing: he’s quite efficient, will defend anyone you throw at him, and fits in. He never stands out, but every team could use a few players like him. He seems like the perfect Houston Rocket.

6. Andre Roberson (Restricted)

Roberson’s free agency should be fascinating. He’s a world-class defender who is an absolute drain on offense. He can’t shoot, he’s an intentional foul liability, and he’s not a terribly dangerous slasher (unlike the younger version of Tony Allen). He could learn to shoot or cut more effectively, but paying what he’s likely to cost is a mighty big risk, especially considering that defense is cheaper to purchase on the open market.

Roberson is going to get more than Solomon Hill did in 2016. Is that appropriate? It’s not clear that it is.

Of course, the Roberson situation could end up boring if Oklahoma City — who has restricted status on him -- cuts a check before he chases offer sheets.

7. Tyreke Evans

Evans isn’t particularly good at any one thing, but he plays three positions (four in a pinch), moves the ball really well when he’s not pounding it into the floor, and is an excellent rebounder when playing the guard positions (less frequently last season, hence his listing at small forward). His versatility and youth (28 next season) will get some team to talk themselves into him. It might even work out.

8. Joe Ingles (Restricted)

Slow Mo Joe is more valuable to Utah than he would be to most franchises. It’s lucky, then, that the Jazz have restricted rights on Ingles. As Utah concentrates on retaining Hayward and Hill, and perhaps moving Derrick Favors and Dante Exum, Ingles can go out and find a team willing to pay a 30-year-old low-scoring glue guy.

If the offer is within reason and Utah needs to keep the team together for another run, the Jazz can match. If Hayward and Hill bail and a quick retooling around Rudy Gobert is in order, Utah can let Ingles jog away slowly. There’s peril in a fat Joe Ingles contract, but not so much for the Jazz. They are in control.

9. P.J. Tucker

Tucker was a boon for the Raptors as a wing defender, but it’s quite risky to pay big money to 32-year-olds who don’t score or create much. Toronto needs defenders more than most, but Tucker is not irreplaceable.

10. Bojan Bogdanovic (Restricted)

Bogdanovic is an effective, efficient bench scorer. But he’s a minus defender and a black hole. Be careful here.

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Power forwards

1. Kevin Durant

Durant is the best free agent for the second straight year, and he’s in the conversation for best basketball player in the world. Unlike 2016, though, Durant isn’t switching teams. He’s relishing life in the Bay Area too much, especially after a dominant NBA playoffs run and championship.

2. Blake Griffin

Griffin is a majestic scorer and rebounder and one of the best passing big men in the league, but he hasn’t played anything close to a full season since 2014. He’s a max-contract player regardless. His health will likely determine whether that works out for whichever team signs him, be it the Clippers or another squad. Griffin would be an amazing fit in Miami.

3. Paul Millsap

Millsap is a top two-way power forward whose shooting efficiency has slipped as Atlanta has hemorrhaged talent. Put him in the right setting and his efficiency could bounce right back. The risk here is due to his age -- he’s 32 — and his inability to develop consistent three-point marksmanship. His excellent defense makes up for it, but there’s a chance that Millsap could become an anchor on the back end of his contract if he loses a step and can’t guard agile bigs going forward.

4. Serge Ibaka

Ibaka salvaged his contract year by playing well down the stretch for Toronto after getting lost in the Orlando morass for the first half. Serge remains a top-notch defender despite losing an edge over the years, and his jumper is reliable. (It’s worth noting that Ibaka is a superior deep shooter to Millsap.) He’s had just one major injury over eight seasons, and will be just 28 years old next season.

Ibaka’s going to get a massive contract, and odds are he’ll avail himself well. He’d be a lovely fit in Denver, Portland (if they can find some flexibility), or Minnesota. Don’t sleep on the possibility of a rebuilding team deciding to leverage cap space to outbid better teams and lock him in at a max contract given his age. Sacramento and Phoenix could be contenders there.

5. Danilo Gallinari

The Rooster is one of the best stretch four scorers when he can stay healthy, which has unfortunately been a problem. Gallinari was really efficient last season, but missed 19 games. He’s a minus on defense, which makes him an imperfect fit in Denver, which needs some defensive help in a bad way. Beyond that, it just feels as though the Nuggets are ready to move on from the Gallinari era.

The Rooster can play either forward position, and might be a nice consolation prize for a team that doesn’t land Hayward or Griffin. The Jazz could end up being a nice fit.

6. JaMychal Green (Restricted)

Green is a role player, but a high-level one. He’s highly efficient at low volume and can defend well. Green is a solid rebounder at power forward, but shouldn’t be asked to move the ball or create his own shot. He needs to be featured in a unit that has enough scoring and passing around him. It’s hard to imagine him being better anywhere else than he is in Memphis, where he was a godsend last season. He’s a restricted free agent, so the Grizzlies should have no problem keeping him.

7. Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk isn’t leaving Dallas — the belief is that he will sign a new two-year deal with the Mavericks to finish out his contract. He’s still a strong supplemental scorer and a locker room legend. Thank goodness the Mavericks won’t let some team Ewing On The Sonics or Hakeem On The Raptors him.

8. James Johnson

Wyoming’s finest was a revelation for the Heat as he remade his body and found scoring and playmaking touch that hadn’t been evident in his previous NBA stops. Defense is Johnson’s bread and butter, but he can shoot and slash too and he’s one of the better big man passers available this summer. Miami appears to be aiming toward a more star-level forward with eyes on Hayward and Griffin; that could lead another team to poaching Johnson early in free agency. If not, the Heat will be glad to give him a salary boost to stick around.

9. Zach Randolph

Z-Bo is soon to be 36 years old, but the dude still gets buckets. He transitioned well into a bench role last season and would be a huge pick-up for a contending team if he decides to take a big pay cut.

10. Taj Gibson

Gibson is a solid defender at power forward who can hit mid-range jumpers and stay out of the way on offense. He could be a nice role player for a team with scoring punch like Minny, Denver, or Washington. It’ll be interesting to see how much the Thunder are willing to spend to re-sign him.

11. Nikola Mirotic (Restricted)

Mirotic needs to be a better long-range shooter to justify his minutes and volume. You wonder how much of his lower clip from deep has to do with Chicago’s lack of spacing -- he was often the only Bull on the floor who was even a threat from deep. Things could look better with a different supporting cast. Otherwise, Mirotic is an anemic rebounder and poor defender. He’s there to hit shots.

12. Michael Beasley

The Michael Beasley rejuvenation continues. He’s a nice bench scorer who can step out to the three-point line (though he doesn’t do it often). Beasley is basically interchangeable with Marreese Speights.

13. Amir Johnson

Johnson is all about defense. He was a starter on a No. 1 seed, but so was Zaza Pachulia. Amir is better than that, though his value will be purely situational. It’s unlikely Boston can afford to pay him or prioritize him, which means he’ll be looking for a new fit on the market. Pairing him with score-first bigs — like in Charlotte, perhaps — could be fruitful.

14. Ersan Ilyasova

The scrap heap stretch four puts up decent numbers wherever he goes. He’s been a solid rebounder in the past two, though he’s not a reliable defender. You’d be glad to have him in your rotation.

15. Patrick Patterson

Two-Pat is an efficient shooter, but has remained at low volumes his entire career. He’s an undersized but active defender, and he’s pretty young at 28 years old. Patterson is a major candidate to go to a franchise where he’ll work himself into excellent shape, boost his per-game numbers, and set himself up for a payday in one year. Consider him the next James Johnson (replacing the passing with shooting).

16. Jeff Green

JEFF GREEN.

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Centers

1. Nerlens Noel (Restricted)

It speaks to the low depth of centers on the free agent market that Noel is easily No. 1 on this list. A top-level defender, Noel doesn’t do anything he can’t. He’s somewhere between Tyson Chandler and Bismack Biyombo. Noel’s yet to have a really good point guard to set him up off picks-and-rolls -- perhaps within a couple years, Dallas draftee Dennis Smith will get there and boost Noel’s scoring output to double-digits.

Dallas will pay whatever it takes to keep Noel, a restricted free agent. He’s going nowhere.

2. Pau Gasol

Gasol’s defense has fallen off considerably (not that it was ever elite), but he remains quite effective as a scorer, rebounder, and passer as he approaches his 37th birthday. The Spurs have apparently worked out a deal to re-sign him after he graciously opted out of a mammoth contract, so expect to see Pau stay in the silver and black for a couple more seasons.

3. Kelly Olynyk (Restricted)

Olynyk’s per-game numbers mask his solid production — he’s just never been a featured player for Brad Stevens. Given a bigger role elsewhere, he could be a 14-8 center at relatively high efficiency given how many threes he shoots. He’s 26 (older than you’d expect from a restricted free agent) and his defense is a mixed bag. But he should probably be a starter in the NBA at his point in his career. Phoenix could be an interesting fit.

4. Mason Plumlee (Restricted)

Denver traded Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick for the right to pay Mason Plumlee in free agency, so they’d better do so. Of course, this constitutes falling right into the sunken cost fallacy. Christian Laettner 2.0 is getting a $60-80 million offer sheet from someone; the Nuggets will have to decide what to do at that point.

5. Nene

Nene played on a discount for the Rockets and proved his worth coming off the bench behind Clint Capela. The combination of his age (nearly 35) and frequent injuries will scare teams off from making a big long-term commitment, but he’s a very solid option as a mid-cost starter or top reserve.

6. Dewayne Dedmon

Dedmon will be a fascinating free agent case. He’ll be 28 next season. He’s one of the very best rebounders in the league and a damn good rim protector. But he’s also a foul machine -- it’s not so much his offensive constraints that keep him off the foul as it is his propensity to hack.

There is definitely a huge danger that some team falls in love, tests the Spurs’ loyalty, and gets burned with a bad contract. Alternately, a new team could unlike some hidden finishing talent in Dedmon’s bones and turn him into the next Hassan Whiteside.

7. Marreese Speights

When you need buckets there is only one man to call.

8. Alex Len (Restricted)

Like Dedmon, Len’s problem staying on the floor is often foul trouble. Avoiding fouls can usually be learned. Len’s a nice little scorer and excellent rebounder who is just 24. Phoenix has the right to match, as Len is a restricted free agent. The most obvious solution is for the Suns to offer up a reasonable multi-year extension, but never count out the opportunity for a franchise with cap space to shake things up. No matter the era, young big men in the NBA make teams act crazy.