#greg would have been about 17/18 in 2008 right?

[gregmarriage]

succ/brba crossover, where jesse and greg meet because greg goes to score drugs for kendall. then, he starts going to score pot for himself, bc jesse is nicer than a lot of other dealers, even if greg thinks he’s weird, and vice versa, but also, he’s a relaxing change of pace from the roys, and feels more akin to his old life, when he wants to go outside of himself and all the stress of his job and current life. he never has any idea what jesse gets up to, and neither does jesse of greg. one day, jesse disappears… and greg has to find a new dealer, and starts to forget about the weird fucking guy he used to smoke pot with sometimes.

[myhauntedsalem]

32 INCREDIBLY WEIRD DEATHS

1. Brazilian Joao Maria de Souza was killed in 2013 when a cow fell through his roof onto him as he slept.

2. Clement Vallandigham, a 19th century US lawyer, accidentally shot himself dead while defending a murder suspect – because he was trying to demonstrate that a supposed victim could have accidentally shot himself dead. (It worked, because his client was acquitted.)

3. Canadian lawyer Garry Hoy died while trying to prove that the glass in the windows of a 24th floor office was unbreakable, by throwing himself against it. It didn’t break – but it did pop out of its frame and he plunged to his death.

4. In 2007 the deputy mayor of Delhi, Surinder Singh Bajwa, died falling off a balcony while trying to fend off a troupe of attacking monkeys.

5. Monica Meyer, the mayor of Betterton, Maryland, died while checking her town’s sewage tanks – she fell in and drowned in 15 feet of human waste.

6. Sigurd the Mighty, a ninth-century Norse earl of Orkney, was killed by an enemy he had beheaded several hours earlier. He’d tied the man’s head to his horse’s saddle, but while riding home one of its protruding teeth grazed his leg. He died from the infection.

7. The owner of the company that makes Segways died in 2010 after accidentally driving his Segway off a cliff.

8. Robert Williams, a Ford assembly line worker, is the first human in history to have been killed by a robot. He was hit by a robot arm in 1979.

9. In 1923, jockey Frank Hayes won a race at Belmont Park in New York despite being dead — he suffered a heart attack mid-race, but his body stayed in the saddle until his horse crossed the line for a 20–1 outsider victory.

10. US congressman Michael F. Farley died in 1921 as a result of shaving – because his shaving brush was infected with anthrax.

11. Several people danced themselves to death during the month-long Dance Fever of 1518 in Strasbourg, during which hundreds of people danced for about a month for no clear reason.

12. Paul G. Thomas, the owner of a wool mill, fell into one of his machines in 1987 and died after being wrapped in 800 yards of wool.

13. Edward Harrison was playing golf in Washington state in 1951 when his driver snapped, and the shaft lodged in his groin. He staggered about 100 yards before bleeding to death.

14. In 1900, American physician Jesse William Lazear tried to prove that Yellow Fever was transmitted by mosquitoes by letting infected mosquitoes bite him. He then died of the disease. Proving himself right.

15. Russian physician Alexander Bogdanov performed pioneering blood transfusions on himself, believing they would give him long life. They actually killed him after he suffered an adverse reaction.

16. Austrian tailor Franz Reichelt thought he’d invented a device that could make men fly. He tested this by jumping off the Eiffel Tower wearing it. It didn’t work. He died.

17. In 1567, the man said to have the longest beard in the world died after he tripped over his beardrunning away from a fire.

18. The Greek philosopher Chrysippus of Soli is said to have died of laughter after watching a donkey trying to eat his figs.

19. British actor Gareth Jones died of a heart attack while performing in a live televised play in 1958 – in which his character was scripted to have a heart attack. The rest of the cast improvised around his death and finished the play.

20. Mary Ward was a pioneering Irish female scientist who is sadly better known as the first person in history to ever be killed in a car accident – while driving with her family in their experimental “road locomotive steam engine”.

21. And the first pedestrian ever killed by a car was Bridget Driscoll of Croydon, London, in 1896.

22. Carl Wilhelm Scheele was a brilliant Swedish chemist who had an unwise habit of tasting all the chemicals he discovered. He died in 1786 as a result of his exposure to lead, hydrofluoric acid, arsenic and various other poisons.

23. Engineer Horace Lawson Hunley pioneered submarine design in the American Civil War – although most of them sank. He died when his final model, named after himself, sank while he was in command of it.

24. General John Sedgwick was killed by a sniper in the American Civil War shortly after uttering the words “They couldn’t hit an elephant at this distance.” (Contrary to popular belief, though, they weren’t his last words. They were his second-last. His last words were agreeing that dodging was in fact a good idea.)

25. Health fanatic Basil Brown managed to kill himself by drinking a gallon of carrot juice a day, in the belief it would make him healthy.

26. In 1992, Greg Austin Gingrich died in the Grand Canyon after jokingly pretending to fall to his death, then losing his footing and actually falling to his death.

27. Queen Sunanda Kumariratana of Siam (now Thailand) drowned in 1880 in full view of many of her subjects – because they were forbidden to touch her, so couldn’t rescue her.

28. The first people ever killed in an air accident were hot air balloon pioneers Jean-François Pilâtre de Rozier and Pierre Romain, in 1785.

29. And the first person ever killed in a powered aeroplane crash was Lieutenant Thomas Selfridge in 1908, in a plane piloted by Orville Wright.

30. An Irish woman died in 2008 after voluntarily having sex with a dog. The exact cause of death is unclear, although it was speculated that an allergic reaction to dogs might have been the cause.

31. Twenty-one people died in the Boston Molasses Disaster of 1919, when a massive tank of molasses burst on a warm day, sending a 25ft high wave of sweetener through the city at 35mph.

32. And eight people died in the London Beer Flood of 1814, when a giant vat at a brewery burst, sending over 3,500 barrels of beer pouring though the nearby streets.

[basketcase1880]

Shipping Spring 2020

Yet again, I’ve been a bit lax in answering these tags, but honestly I do have an excuse: I’m a nurse. So thanks @gatergirl​ for the tag.

SIX SHIPS YOU’RE INTO RIGHT NOW  1. Ballum (Eastenders) 2. Spuffy (Buffy) 3. Sterek (Teen Wolf) 4. Literati (Gilmore Girls) 5. Sherlolly (Sherlock) 6. Jackie/Robbie (Taggart)

THREE SHIPS YOU LIKED, BUT DON’T ANYMORE 7. Rory/Dean (Gilmore Girls) 8. Nick/Greg (CSI) 9. Spirk (Star Trek)

THREE SHIPS YOU NEVER LIKED 10. Rory/Logan (Gilmore Girls) 11. Wincest (Supernatural) 12. Eggsy/Tilde (Kingsman)

TWO SHIPS YOU’RE CURIOUS ABOUT, BUT DON’T ACTUALLY SHIP 13. Drarry (Harry Potter) 14. Hartwin (Kingsman)

QUESTIONS

1. Why do you dislike 11 so much? They’re brothers, they shouldn’t be shipped.

2. Who is someone you know that ships 14? @gatergirl

3. What would be your ideal scenario for couple 3? Just for them to be canon. Jeff baited us with Stiles’ sexuality from the start, especially when it came to Derek, so we deserve Sterek.

4. Which is your favourite moment for 1? Callum signing ‘I love you’ in response to Ben’s “I love you”

5. How long have you been following 5? For this one I know the exact date: January 1st 2014 when we had the kiss during Anderson’s theory of how Sherlock faked his death.

6. What’s the story with 8? What made you stop liking them/caring? The series ended, they were never canon, and so the fandom kinda died.

7. You have the power to make one ship non-existent, choose from 10 or 12. Goodbye Rory/Logan. He was never the right fit for Rory. And that way we wouldn’t have to worry about his (possibly) being the baby daddy from the series finale cliffhanger.

8. Which ship do you prefer; 2 or 4? I’d have to go with 2. Spuffy was my original ship. I first discovered fanficiton around 2008 when I was searching the internet for pictures of them, and they were my first foray into writing.

9. What interests you about 14? I like Colin Firth. I like Taron Egerton. I like their individual portrayals of gay men, so, maybe I’ll like them together...

10.  Why did you stop liking 7? Rory is better off with Jess, but other than that, Dean cheated on his wife with Rory and took Rory’s virginity at the same time. That ship just didn’t work out at all.

11. Did your waning interest in 9 kill your interest in the fandom? I’d say so. I have all three of the new films, but I’ve still to watch Star Trek: Beyond. However, there is also the fact that I don’t want to admit the fact that Anton Yelchin won’t be in any more films after Beyond, so, my waning interest cannot be completely at fault.

12. What’s a song that reminds you of 5? Let Her Go by Passenger. Sherlock only really came to realise his feelings for Molly after he found out she was engaged to Tom and then when he thought Eurus was going to blow Molly up did he realise he loved her.

13. If you could have any of these couples double date, who would it be? Maybe Spuffy and Sterek. That way they can trade notes on their own supernatural goings on and how California seems to have it all: the Hellmouth and the Nemeton.

14. Have 2 kissed yet? Oh, yeah, they certainly brought the house down once...

15. Did 4 have a happy ending? If the show hasn’t ended yet, do you think a happy ending is likely? Nope, but they deserve their happy ending. The series ended with the iconic line “Mom, I’m pregnant...” but we were given a number of possible baby daddies [see Q. 7] If Rory and Jess were to get their happy ending, Jess would be the only possible dad.

16. What would make you start shipping 13? I’m almost there. I just need to make the final jump into the fanfiction because they weren’t canon in the books/films. I’ve seen some really good fanart and incorrect quotes.

17. If only one could happen, what would you prefer, 1 or 2? Ballum, after the upbringing these boys had, they deserve the love and happiness being with each other brings.

18. You have the power to decide the fate of 10. What happens to them? Logan would be married off to some socialite trophy wife that his dad approves of, and Rory would be with Jess [see Q 15].

19. Which of these ships do you love the most? They all have their own appeals, but at the moment, Ballum is the most active, so probably Ballum

Tag: @fandoms-are-my-air you’re up next (and anyone else who wants to do this)

[onebeforeidie]

Toronto Raptors Long Road to the NBA Finals

Next year will be the 25th year in Toronto Raptors franchise history. It’s been a very interesting two and a half decades, from adopting a dinosaur and playing in the cavernous Skydome, to having NBA star after NBA star reject the team and refuse to report or demand a trade, to the highs of the Vinsanity era, followed by more years of darkness and incompetence.

But for the sake of brevity, let’s attempt to tell the story of how the Raptors got where they are now, and begin where this run truly began. 

PROLOGUE (2011-2012)

It’s the 2011 off-season. The Raptors just won 22 games and are now years removed from the “successful” first round exits of 2007 (New Jersey) and 2008 (Orlando). After several attempts by GM Bryan Colangelo to find the right combination of players to make the playoffs consistently in the East, the team now appears fully lost with the only real option left to scorch earth rebuild. The previous summer, Chris Bosh moved on to Miami, only to lose to the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals. After which, their assistant coach Dwayne Casey, praised for his defensive schemes on the big 3, becomes available and the Raps bring him in as head coach to start a new program built on fundamentals and pounding the rock. 

It’s the lockout year, and the Raps suck again finishing 23-43, lacking any kind of distinct identity despite Casey’s efforts. Colagelo makes a full court press to bring in former MVP and Canadian hero Steve Nash to mentor and lead the group on the hardwood. After an intense courtship, we ultimately whiff and Nash spurns his home country, deciding he is better off playing for the Lakers. We also make a brief play for current Raptors benchwarmer Jeremy Lin (infamous for his Linsanity run with the Knicks), but eventually settle for Kyle Lowry as the man to run their offense. Colangelo traded a protected first round pick and Gary Forbes to Houston for the Philly Bulldog  (who eventually flip that pick to OKC for James Harden - ironic considering that we previously declined a version of that trade as OKC wanted the man we drafted with the 5th overall pick Jonas Valanciunas, Jose Calderon, and Terrance Ross, but Colangelo balked). 

Colangelo eventually trades Calderon and Ed Davis to Memphis for Rudy Gay and Hamed Haddadi instead (Pistons were involved as a third team) midway through the 2012-13 season, which finally gave us a player who could take a late 4th quarter shot for the first time in a long time, but Gay’s lack of efficiency couldn’t take them over the hump and they finished 34-48 which forced the teams hand. 

The Raptors remove Colangelo as GM that offseason, and brought in Nuggets GM Masai Ujiri, who Colangelo had hired years earlier as his director of global scouting in 2007, and then promoted to assistant GM in 2008. The plan was for Colangelo to remain on, but he quickly stepped down as he became aware this would be Ujiri’s team moving forward. It should be noted, Masai brought with him, from the NBA league office, current Raptors GM Bobby Webster who he groomed to be his ultimate successor once he eventually assumed the President’s role. 

And thus, with Ujiri and the only remaining current Raptor from that era, Kyle Lowry, the We The North Era begins.

CHAPTER 1 (2013-14) - An Unlikely Beginning 

Ujiri’s first order of business is to fleece the New York Knicks, flipping maligned Raptor and prized Colangelo possession Andrea Bargnani for a first round pick, and two seconds (also Steve Novak, Quentin Richardson, and Marcus Camby, the latter two would never suit up for the Raps as it was simply a salary dump). For more on the Bargs trade tree read up here: https://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/nba/toronto-raptors-trade-masai-ujiri-andrea-bargnani-jakob-poeltl/

Masai also decides to keep his inherited coach, feeling he had not gotten a proper shake with a competitive group. 

However the team struggles early, and Masai is prompted to trade Rudy Gay, Quincy Acy and Aaron Gray to Sacramento for Grevious Vasquez, Patrick Patterson, Chuck Hayes, and John Salmons. This appears to be the true beginning of another earth scorching, as Andrew Wiggins was the prize in that year’s draft and Raptor fans were more than happy to tank for a shot at him. 

Masai is also back in talks with the Knicks about Kyle Lowry, and essentially had a deal in place to move him there for another first round pick, Iman Shumpert and Metta World Peace. But still sore from the Bargs debacle, New York pulls out of the deal at the last minute. 

Which suited the Raptors just fine, who since the Gay trade in December had turned things around and pulled together playing team basketball. They went on on a major run with DeMar leading the team. He went to All-Star weekend, and kept it rolling in the second half with the team ending up winning a franchise high 48 games and the division. 

They draw the veteran laiden Brooklyn Nets, lead by Kevin Garnett & Paul Pierce, and fight them tooth and nail to a 7th game. The Raptors fall short in the final seconds, but it was extremely memorable run for the fans who expected nothing of the sort that season and who immediately took to the We The North campaign. Jurassic Park got it’s life here and was made famous by Masai’s “FUCK BROOKLYN” comments to pump up the crowd prior to Game 1. 

Outgoing Raptors: Julyan Stone, Nando De Colo, Austin Daye, Dwight Buycks, DJ Augustin

Chapter 2 (2014-15) - The Sophmore Slump

It’s the Raptors 20th Anniversary year and Masai is tasked with making his first post playoff adjustments. He trades John Salmons to Atlanta for Lou Williams and Bebe. The team would start on fire, 24-8 out of the gate and go on to win another division and finish with another franchise high 49 wins. Williams would go on to to win 6th man of the year. 

Sadly they get destroyed in the playoffs with both Lowry and DeRozan struggling. The Wizards swept the Raptors 4-0, and nemesis Paul Piece, now having moved on to Washington, gets the last laugh once again. 

Outgoing Raptors:  Landry Fields, Tyler Hansborough, Chuck Hayes, Amir Johnson, Grevious Vasquez, Lou Williams, Greg Steimsma.

Chapter 3 (2015-16) - The Breakthrough

Masai shakes things up again this time refocusing on defense, trading Grevious Vasquez for a 2nd round pick that would be used on now second longest tenured Raptor Norman Powell, and a 1st round pick that would eventually be used to acquire Serge Ibaka the following year. He also signs DeMarre Caroll to a big free agent contract, and brings home Toronto boy Corey Joseph to be the backup point guard. He also signs veteran Luis Scola. 

The moves once again pay off, as Toronto wins a monumental 56 games and their third straight division title. The city also hosts the All-Star game for the first time, which both Lowry and DeRozan represent. The dunk competition is arguably the most memorable one since Vince broke the wheel in 2000, with Aaron Gordon and Zach Levine facing off in an insane finals (which Levine won by a hair). 

The Raps win their first playoff series since beating the Knicks in 2001 (and second all time), barely creeping by Paul George and the Indiana Pacers in 7 games. They would take another 7 games to beat Dwayne Wade and Miami in the second round, going the farthest they’ve ever gone in the playoffs, before bowing out to LeBron and the Cavs in 6 in the eastern final, which ended on home court with the fans chanting in support much to Lebron’s shock and awe. The Cavs would go on to comeback and upset the Warriors in a memorable NBA Finals. 

Outgoing Raptors:  Anthony Bennett, Bismack Biyombo, James Johnson, Jason Thompson, Luis Scola

Chapter 4 (2016-17) - The Step Back

The Raptors make a huge financial commitment to DeMar DeRozan in the summer, signing him to a max contract after talk he may go home to join the Lakers. The Raps win 51 games, but fail to continue their streak of division titles with the rising Boston Celtics surging ahead of them. Masai makes two big deadline deals for Ibaka and big body PJ Tucker, but they are not enough as they slog past a young Milwaukee Bucks team 4-2 in the first round, but proceed to get swept by LeBron and the Cavs in the 2nd.

Outgoing Raptors:  DeMarre Caroll, Jared Sullinger, Corey Joseph, Patrick Patterson, Terrance Ross, PJ Tucker

Chapter 5 (2017-18) - The Breaking Point

Masai looks to make significant changes to the way the team plays basketball on both offence and defense in an effort to keep up with the changing NBA landscape, despite bringing back Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka on big short term deals. They pay Brooklyn a first round pick to take the oft-injured Caroll of their hands, send Corey Joseph to Indiana, and look to get younger, more athletic, and move the ball. CJ Miles is brought in to help address three point shooting. Coach Casey succeeds impressively in this overhaul, wins 59 games, the division, finished with the best record in the East, and won Coach of the Year. DeMar has an impressive campaign as well, including dropping a franchise high 52 against in the Bucks on New Year’s day. But it’s all for not, as they get some slight revenge on the Washinton Wizards beating them 4-2 in the first round, but losing to LeBron and the Cavs for a third straight season, once again getting swept in the second round. 

Masai wrings his hands and is forced to make some impossible choices. He fires the reigning coach of the year, ultimately determining a change was necessary to get to the next level. He then moves face of the franchise DeMar, for one year of Kawhi and Danny Green, a polarizing trade that put the entire league on notice. 

Masai would also finally eat crow and move on from his “Brazillian KD” draft pick who was famously two years away from being two years away. 

Outgoing Raptors:  DeMar Derozan, Jakub Poetl, Nigel Hayes, Lucas Nogiera, Alfonso Mckinnie, Bruno Caboclo. 

Chapter 6 (2018-19) - The Promised Land

Nick Nurse is promoted to head coach in somewhat of an awkward situation, and Kawhi has his load managed by the team to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Masai makes another tough deadline deal, this time sending fan favorite Jonas Valancuinas, Delon Wright, and CJ Miles to Memphis for Marc Gasol. The team isn’t as good as last year as due to injuries was rarely together all at the same time, but still wins 58 games, the division, and finished 2nd in the East. They also sign guards Jodie Meeks and Jeremy Lin to fill out the bench. 

They pull together in the playoffs on the back of a dominant Kawhi Leonard who by now had blossomed into everything they hoped he would be as an injured superstar when they acquired him nearly a year ago, quickly dispensing with Orlando 4-1 before beating Philly in 7 games in the second round, 18 years after Vince missed that final shot. This time the narrative ends with Kawhi hitting his now famous four time bouncing buzzer beater, and the Raps move to one seed Milwaukee in the eastern final. After falling down 2-0, they would storm back to win the next 4, giving the team their first ever NBA Finals birth against the Golden State Warriors. 

Outgoing Raptors:  Jonas Valancuinas, Delon Wright, CJ Miles, Greg Monroe, Malachi Richardson, Lorenzo Brown

The series ahead will be hard fought one against an all-time juggernaut team that has been to four straight finals, and won three of them. Lead by, at the time, an eight year old kid that Raptors fan watched warm up and shoot pre-game threes during the Vince era. Whatever happens, it will be squarely on the backs of two people. Sure it will take Kawhi being an absolute monster and he will play the hero role should they win and rightfully so, but as the man himself said, this team was not built in one year.  So I look to Masai Ujiri, who very clearly orchestrated this patiently and cold bloodedly, and Kyle Lowry, the only Raptor to have been through it all with him. Masai arrived and proceeded to make the playoffs 6 straight years after the Raptors only made it 5 times in the previous 18 seasons. He kept on a coach he did not hire for as long as he could and reaped the rewards for doing so, and still made the hard decision when he had to. He drafted and signed players like Pascal Siakam, Fred Van Vleet, Norman Powell, and OG and did so by managing to bring in the Raptors 905 (who also won a championship in his time as well). He also kept a point guard he almost traded, and never looked back. Lowry rewarded him with 5 division titles in 6 years, averaged 53.5 wins a year, made the all star team 5 times, was an all NBA player in 2016, and won gold with Team USA basketball that same year. Kyle and Masai’s relationship took a hit after the trade of his best friend (despite paying him 100 million the year before) but rest assured, should the Raptors do the unthinkable and win this series, they will be hugging on the floor and it will be a truly glorious moment. 

Let’s hope they find a way. 

2019 Raptors Playoff Roster: Kyle Lowry, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Fred Vanvleet, Norm Powell, OG Anunoby, Patrick McCaw, Jeremy Lin, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Loyd, Malcom Miller, Chris Boucher, and Eric Moreland.  

#WETHENORTH

[steenpaal]

ComiXology - Wikipedia

Iconology Inc.,[1]d/b/a ComiXology (styled comiXology), is a cloud-based digital distribution platform for comics, with over 200 million comic downloads as of September 2013.[2] It offers a selection of more than 100,000[3]comic books, graphic novels, and manga across Android, iOS, Kindle Fire, Windows 8,[4] and the Internet.[5][6] In April 2014, ComiXology became a subsidiary of Amazon.com.[7]

ComiXology's digital platform with Guided View reading technology is used in the company's own branded applications, and is the engine used by most major comic book publishers in the United States, including Marvel Comics and DC Comics for their privately branded digital services.[8] With the release of the third generation iPad and its Retina Display, ComiXology released a high-definition comic format dubbed CMX-HD.[9] The company also provides tools for brick-and-mortar comic book retailers to participate in digital comic sales.[10]

Products

ComiXology.com was launched July 2007 as an online community for comic book fans; the website allows readers to identify upcoming releases and develop pull lists (individual pre-orders) from local brick-and-mortar comic shops. The website displays weekly listings of new titles that can be viewed by issue: displaying cover art, credits, description, price, page count, and other information; the site also includes weekly columns, blogs, news, and podcasts. Users can rate and comment on individual comic books. As of July 24, 2014, ComiXology offers DRM-free downloads (in PDF and CBZ formats) for the comics available from selected publishers on its online store.[11]

Pull List (launched December 2008), a mobile comic book store locater providing readers with a digital Pull List tool, allowing fans to pre-order comics for pick up from local stores through the app. This app has been replaced by the Comics by comiXology app and the web app has the retail store locator included.

Retailer Tools (launched February 2009), a suite of out-of-the-box web solutions for brick-and-mortar comic book retailers to optimize their presence online. Numerous retailers worldwide have integrated comiXology's Retailer Tools into their operations, representing about 2% of all pre-orders in the market.[citation needed]

Comics by ComiXology (launched July 2009), a digital comic book reader and store for mobile devices, including iOS (launched April 2010), Android, Windows 8 (via the Windows Store), and the Internet (web reader launched June 2010), that allows users to access their digital comic collection across multiple devices.

History

The company was founded in 2007 by CEO David Steinberger, CTO John D. Roberts, and Peter Jaffe. Subsequent to winning the business plan competition at New York University, the company received seed financing from Kit McQuiston, New York Angels and Rose Tech Ventures.[12]

In May 2016, the company launched "comiXology Unlimited," a subscription service that gives access thousands of comics to read from most major publishers for a monthly fee of $5.99, however Marvel and DC are not included.[13][14] ComiXology Unlimited, is an online subscription service by ComiXology, a cloud-based platform for digital comics The service offers more than four thousand issues to its subscribers and launched on May 24, 2016.[15] ComiXology Unlimited contains a selection of titles from Image Comics, Dark Horse, IDW Publishing, BOOM! Studios, Dynamite Entertainment, Kodansha Comics, Oni Press, Valiant Entertainment, Archie Comics, Fantagraphics Books, Humanoids, Action Lab Entertainment, Aspen Comics, Magnetic Press, Zenescope Entertainment and more.[14] According to the company, ComiXology Unlimited offers the widest subscription selection of digital comics in the world. ComiXology Unlimited is currently available in the U.S.[16] and ComiXology plans to expand to other regions in the future.[17] ComiXology updates the content included in the program on a monthly basis.[18]

ComiXology's patent-pending Guided View technology allows readers to read through comics in full screen or from panel-to-panel, mimicking the natural movement of the eye as though readers were experiencing reading a print comic book.[19]

In June 2018, the company announced ComiXology Originals, an initiative to publish creator-owned titles.[20]

Content relationships

ComiXology currently holds exclusive distribution rights on iOS to DC Comics digital content through branded apps and comics by comiXology.[citation needed]

ComiXology holds exclusive digital distribution rights to:

ComiXology’s first original digital title, Box 13, has been acquired by Red 5 Comics for print distribution. ComiXology also commissioned a sequel to the comic, titled The Pandora Project. Both Box 13 titles were created by the Harvey Award-winning team behind the Zuda Comics title High Moon - David Gallaher and Steve Ellis[23]

Moon Girl is an original comic published by ComiXology, based on a public domain comics character. The creative team on Moon Girl is Tony Trov, Johnny Zito, and Rahzzah.[24]

In 2018, ComiXology, under the ComiXology Originals banner, announced four new projects, namely: Savage Game, Superfreaks, Elephantmen, and Ask For Mercy.[25]

Controversies

In March 2013 during SXSW, an issue arose when Marvel Comics attempted to distribute over 700 comics for free via ComiXology for the Marvel #1 promotion.[26] The ComiXology servers were unable to keep up with user demand, preventing users from obtaining the promotional comics, as well as from reading comics they had purchased. This led to a formal apology and the promotions being delayed.[27] Soon afterward, the promotion was offered again and was reported to have "worked flawlessly".[28] In the aftermath of the ensuing difficulties some users have raised concerns regarding access to their files should the platform ever shut down.[29] To respond to this concern, in July 2014 selected publishers allow for DRM-free downloads of their comics.

On April 9, 2013, writer Brian K. Vaughan issued a statement[30] on Fiona Staples's blog that Apple Inc. had prohibited the sale of Saga #12 through iOS. This statement was quickly reported by the media, the impetus for the "ban" was speculated to be in response to two panels that depicted oral sex between men in a small, inset image violated Apple's restrictions on sexual content. The issue was available through the ComiXology and Image Comics digital comics website stores. The ban was criticized by artists and writers, who pointed to similarly explicit content in previous issues and in other works sold through iTunes. William Gibson and others suggested that the restriction could have occurred specifically because the drawings at issue involved gay sex.[31] A day later, Comixology announced that it had been they, not Apple, who had chosen not to make the issue available, based on their interpretation of Apple's rules, and that after receiving clarification from Apple, the issue would be sold on iOS devices.[32] Brian K. Vaughan then issued a statement apologizing for the miscommunication.[33]

After Amazon's controversial purchase of ComiXology, the company removed the option of purchasing comics inside the iOS app. This change resulted in immediate internet backlash from the comic book reader community, criticizing Amazon's acquisition of the distributor.[34] This change to ComiXology's structure has made readers concerned about the future of digital comic distribution.[35]

Reception

In September 2011, ComiXology's Comics application was the highest-grossing application in the App Store, and together with the branded applications for other comics publishers, accounted for a majority of the five top-grossing iPhone apps.

Having consistently ranked as one of the top-grossing iPad apps in iTunes, ComiXology was called the "iTunes of comics" by The New York Times in May 2012.[36] In 2011, comiXology ranked as number 10 in the top 20 grossing iPad apps for year and also powered two other apps in the top 20 — Marvel and DC.[37] In 2012, comiXology was ranked as the number 3 top grossing iPad app — the only app from 2011 to stay on the top ten list.[38]

Press reception for the launch of ComiXology Unlimited was mostly positive, with journalists and bloggers focusing on the low price point, the 30-day free trial and the diverse collection of independent comics, graphic novels, and manga available at launch.[39] Some critics pointed out, however, that only some trades in the series are available in the program,[40] undermining the “unlimited” aspect of the subscription.

References

^ "Privacy Policy - Comics by comiXology". comixology.com. Retrieved April 15, 2018.

^ "'iTunes of comics' passes 200M downloads". crainsnewyork. September 25, 2013.

^ "ComiXology Joining the Original Programming Party With Exclusive Comics". Gigaom. Retrieved December 6, 2016.

^ "New Comixology app a high point for digital comics". suntimes.com. Retrieved July 11, 2012.

^ "Comixology Celebrates 100M Downloads with FREE comics". Comic Book Daily. Retrieved June 1, 2015.

^ "COMIXOLOGY CELEBRATES MEGA ANNIVERSARY AT SAN DIEGO COMIC CON 2012". disneydigest.com. Archived from the original on January 13, 2018. Retrieved July 2, 2012.

^ Greg Kumparak. "Amazon Acquires Digital Comic Book Store Comixology". TechCrunch. AOL. Retrieved June 1, 2015.

^ "Marvel Comixology iPad App Revealed". Ifanboy.com. April 1, 2010. Archived from the original on July 19, 2011. Retrieved August 7, 2011.

^ "ComiXology Reveals New Hi-Res CMX-HD Digital Comics Format!". cmtvgeek.com. Retrieved March 20, 2012.

^ "So... Who IS COMIXOLOGY, The Digital Comics Leader?". Newsarama.com. Retrieved August 7, 2011.

^ Tom Cheredar, Venture Beat. “ComiXology starts offering DRM-free downloads on (some) digital comic book purchases.” July 24, 2014. Retrieved July 24, 2014.

^ "CITIA Angel Investing - ComiXology, excerpt from David S. Rose's book Angel Investing: The Gust Guide to Making Money & Having Fun Investing in Startups". Wiley. Archived from the original on December 22, 2015. Retrieved November 2, 2015.

^ ComiXology CEO Answers the Big Questions About New "Unlimited" Subscription Service CBR, May 24, 2016

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External links

[creconsult]

When Will Building New Units Make Sense Again? Apartment Developers Remain Uncertain

New Post has been published on https://wp.me/p3mbbb-uc8

When Will Building New Units Make Sense Again? Apartment Developers Remain Uncertain

  Developers will likely delay starting new apartment projects until they see strong employment growth.

Some lucky multifamily developers will start work on new apartment projects at the perfect time, as the U.S.  begins to recover from the economic crisis caused by the COVID pandemic.

They will likely pay far below last year’s prices for development sites. They should have an easy time negotiating with construction contractors. Their apartment units will open just as rents begin to rise again. That time— the right time to start new multifamily projects —is still months or even years in the future, according to many developers and economists.

“If I’m a developer, I am probably waiting until the first part of next year to make a commitment,” says John Sebree, senior vice president and national director of the multi-housing division with brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap. “Multifamily will come out of this in much better shape than the rest of the economy… But we’re going to be going through this for a while.”

The number of new apartments that developers will begin to build over the next few years might be less than half that of the years immediately prior to the pandemic, according to Greg Willett, chief economist for RealPage Inc. a provider of property management software and services. “There’s certainly an interruption in development right in front of us,” he says.

According to the third edition of the  National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) COVID-19 Construction Survey  (conducted between May 11 and May 20), 53 percent of surveyed developers reported delays in their construction projects, though delays tied to construction moratoriums began to ease as states have relaxed shelter-in-place restrictions. Seventy-eight percent of those experiencing construction delays also reported a pause in project starts, an 8-percentage-point increase compared to the survey conducted in April.

In addition, the number of respondents seeing materials price increases rose to 17 percent from 5 percent in April. On the positive side, seventy percent of survey respondents reported that they were not impacted by labor shortages.

Developers struggle to finish and lease thousands of new apartments

A project that started construction today probably would not open its doors for a least a year. But a year will probably not be long enough to avoid impact from the damage to the U.S. economy caused by the coronavirus.

“In the best-case scenario, a project that begins construction today would open into a recovering economy,” says Andrew Rybczynski, managing consultant with research firm CoStar Group. “They would likely still face elevated vacancy rates due to the supply overhang expected to [be delivered] through the remainder of this year and much of the next.”

Many apartment developers are having a hard time completing projects they started building before the crisis caused by the coronavirus—much less starting new ones. These developers are likely to complete a total of 170,000 to 240,000 units in 2020. “Back in January 2020, we thought they would complete 300,000 units,” says Sebree. “A lot of the construction process slowed as the result of the pandemic.”

Many developers reduced the number of construction workers they hired, for example, to avoid crowding workers together on sites and potentially spreading the virus.

In addition, nearly one-third of developers (32.1 percent) report that they had to halt construction because of state and local government mandates, according to a survey of 461 members of NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association, conducted between May 18 and 20. (NAIOP used to stand for the National Association for Industrial and Office Parks, though it long ago expanded to include apartment developers.) In addition, one-in-five developers (19.1 percent) suffered through delays or shortages of construction supplies in May, according to the NAIOP survey. The figure was down from nearly a third (31.1 percent) in April.

However, all of the new apartment projects now underway are likely to open eventually, expanding the country’s available number of units by 4 percent of the existing inventory, according to CoStar. “If you broke ground, you can’t stop construction halfway,” says Sebree.

Fewer developers likely to start construction this year

When they finally open, the new apartments begun before the crash will have to deal with a shaky economy. “We do not anticipate a fast clip back to full employment,” says Rybczynski. “History suggests that the U.S. will experience elevated unemployment for some time.”

Many developers will probably hesitate to start to work on new projects while so many of their peers still struggle to finish or lease-up new buildings. In the first quarter of 2020, many new apartment properties struggled to find tenants willing to sign leases. “Further struggles would slow construction starts of new apartments more,” notes Rybczynski.

Even among developers willing to plunge into new projects in May 2020, nearly two-thirds (62.3 percent) reported delays in securing permitting or entitlements, according to the NAIOP survey.

The last time the U.S. economy collapsed into a recession, developers also started construction on fewer apartment units. “Back in the Great Financial Crisis, multifamily building dropped about 60 percent, sliding from roughly 190,000 market-rate units delivered in 2008 to a low point of 78,000 units finished in 2011,” says Willett.

Once apartments that started construction before the pandemic are completed and rented, the apartment sector should once again benefit from the need for housing that has been consistently strong in prior cycles. “Prior to this pandemic,  we were dealing with a housing crisis,” says Sebree. “The underlying fundamentals will remain very, very strong.”

As developers place their bets on when to resume building, they are likely to focus on the monthly employment numbers.

“While we’ve lost more jobs in the past few months than we did back in 2008-2009, this recession could be shorter in duration,” says Willett. “A quick return of economic growth could get the building started again. On the other hand, if the spread of COVID-19 intensifies later in the year and the economy continues to downsize, a 60 percent pullback in construction is probably the minimum.”

The hot markets of the future

Developers and economists are already trying to guess where the best apartment development markets of the future might be. “There’s good reason to think that some of the key Sun Belt markets that led the country’s apartment construction pace during the past decade will be the first places to get back to some form of business as usual,” says Rybczynski.

Meanwhile, some economists are now less enthusiastic about coastal gateway cities, especially New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and Los Angeles.

“If where we live isn’t tied to where we work to the degree seen historically, the most expensive areas of the country could lose some of their appeals, especially in the zones where density is the highest,” says Willett. “Further development could be deterred if bans on evictions of those not paying rent are extended over and over again, and if there’s more movement to put in place rent growth restrictions.”

  Source: National Real Estate Investor Bendix Anderson | Jun 18, 2020

[jodyedgarus]

How The Milwaukee Bucks Brought Their Offense Into The 21st Century

When he was hired in May to coach the Milwaukee Bucks, Mike Budenholzer inherited a promising but underachieving core of young players led by Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks — who have not won a playoff series since 2001 — had just suffered yet another postseason disappointment and hoped a coaching change would help them escape perpetual mediocrity.

To say the results have been encouraging would be an understatement. Budenholzer has implemented a new and more modern offensive strategy that is utilizing Antetokounmpo’s unique talents like never before. Under Budenholzer this season, the Bucks are scoring at a conference-leading rate of 113.2 points per 100 possessions. The team has the best record in the NBA, has won 10 of its last 11, and has already beaten conference rivals Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto (three times now). Milwaukee is heading into All-Star weekend as perhaps the most intimidating team in the Eastern Conference.

So, yes, the coaching change has worked. But what exactly has Budenholzer done — and why is it working so well for the Bucks? One strategic change was clear even back in the preseason when Budenholzer rolled out his new offense.

“Coach Bud wants us to shoot more 3s,” Milwaukee guard Malcolm Brogdon told Eric Nehm of The Athletic. “A lot more 3s.”

Last year, the Bucks attempted just 24.7 3-pointers per game (25th-most in the league). Under Budenholzer, they have pumped up their long-range volume to 37.8 3-pointers per game, second-most in the NBA this season (trailing only the Houston Rockets).

But Budenholzer has done more than just open the 3-point flood gates in Milwaukee this year: He has engineered a sea change in shot selection.

“I think there’s a lot of focus on how many 3s [we are taking], but hopefully we’re having the best of everything,” Budenholzer said to The Athletic. “If you’re an efficient offense, you’re getting to the basket. You’re getting to the paint. You’re getting to the free-throw line. And you’re shooting a bunch of 3s.”

This season, the Bucks have done more to modernize their shot chart than any other team in the league, as shown in these year-to-year charts.1 Their share of shots taken at the rim or behind the 3-point line — referred to as the Moreyball Rate, after Houston general manager Daryl Morey — has jumped by 16 percentage points, according to data compiled by PBP Stats. Correspondingly, their average 2-pointer is being attempted from a shorter distance, about 2.5 feet closer to the hoop. And everybody on the team is cutting back on midrange jumpers.

The Bucks’ transformations in Moreyball Rate and 2-point shot distance are the biggest changes by any team in the NBA from last season to this one. In fact, the Bucks’ sudden modernization is among the most drastic changes in shot selection by any team during the entire era of play-by-play data (available since 2001-02).

Milwaukee has modernized its shot selection, big time

Teams with the biggest jumps in their Moreyball Rate from the previous season and their change in average distances from the basket on 2-point field-goal attempts, since 2001-02

MOREYBALL RATE AVG. 2PA DISTANCE Season TEAM Prev. season given season Diff. Prev. season given season diff. 2012-13 Rockets 53% 74% +20 8.8ft 6.2ft -2.6ft 2016-17 Nets 53 72 +19 8.4 6.1 -2.4 2018-19 Bucks 64 80 +16 7.5 5.0 -2.5 2013-14 76ers 51 66 +15 9.5 6.5 -3.0 2003-04 Wizards 38 52 +14 10.9 8.7 -2.2 2008-09 L.A. Clippers 44 57 +13 10.2 8.2 -2.0 2015-16 Hornets 51 64 +13 9.5 8.2 -1.3 2005-06 Cavaliers 47 60 +13 9.0 8.0 -1.0 2007-08 Magic 53 66 +13 8.0 6.9 -1.1 2018-19 Wizards 58 71 +12 8.7 6.9 -1.8 2017-18 Raptors 58 71 +12 8.3 6.5 -1.8 2014-15 Cavaliers 53 65 +12 8.8 7.2 -1.6 2012-13 L.A. Lakers 51 63 +12 9.1 8.1 -1.0 2004-05 L.A. Lakers 50 61 +11 8.6 7.8 -0.9 2008-09 Trail Blazers 44 54 +10 11.0 8.9 -2.1

Moreyball Rate is the share of the team’s shots taken at the rim or behind the 3-point line

Some percentage-point and distance differences may not add up because of rounding

As of Feb. 5, 2019

Source: PBPstats.com

Appropriately, Morey produced the biggest Moreyball makeover in league history during Houston’s 2012-13 season, James Harden’s first with the team.

For the Bucks, the advantage of being laggards in the Moreyball revolution has been an opportunity to learn from the mistakes of their competitors. Seth Partnow, now Milwaukee’s director of basketball research, wrote for Vice Sports in 2016 that creating makeable shots takes more than just jacking threes and driving headlong into the lane. “Three-pointers and shots at the rim are indicators of good offense, but they’re not good offense in a vacuum, and teams that use them as targets should be wary of putting the cart before the horse. Those are good shots in theory. In practice, the best shots are the ones the personnel on hand can make.”

Fundamentally, the Bucks have achieved their impressive offensive efficiency on the strength of the two principles of Budenholzer’s offensive philosophy: pace and space.

Budenholzer’s emphasis on court spacing has been emblemized by the image of five “stand-here” squares he had taped to the floor of the Bucks practice court, surrounding the 3-point line. By initiating their offensive possessions with all five players outside the 3-point line, the Bucks leave more space for Antetokounmpo to attack the basket. Once Antetokounmpo draws attention around the basket, he’s free to kick the ball out to open 3-point shooters in space. It’s a positive feedback loop that yields easier shots for Antetokounmpo and his teammates.

The Bucks’ improved floor spacing has been facilitated by some shrewd front-office maneuvers. The team signed capable stretch bigs Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova on team-friendly contracts while at the same time cutting ties with paint-clogging centers Greg Monroe, Tyler Zeller and, most recently, John Henson.

With all that extra space, Antetokounmpo has been attacking the basket relentlessly this season. Since last year, he has increased his volume of drives per game from 11.0 to 12.9; his paint touches are up from 5.3 to 6.5 per game; and he’s now taking more shots at the rim (523) than any other player in the league. These additional basket-attacking duties have put the onus on Antetokounmpo to read the defense and distribute the ball to his teammates.

The result has been a career high in assists for Antetokounmpo this season (5.9 per game), with an emphasis on kick-out dimes. On 289 total assists this season, Antetokounmpo has set up a teammate for a 3-point basket 168 times (58 percent), while he has assisted a teammate in scoring a 2-point basket just 121 times (42 percent). In other words, Antetokounmpo has created 262 more points via assisted 3-pointers than he has via assisted 2-pointers this year. That is the biggest such margin of any player in the league and it’s not even remotely close — Detroit’s Blake Griffin is second with 98 more points assisted on 3-pointers than 2-pointers.

Among the top-30 assist leaders this season, Antetokounmpo and teammate Eric Bledsoe are two of only seven players who have created more points via assists on 3s than on 2s.

The Bucks’ drive-and-kick is producing threes

The top 30 2018-19 NBA assist leaders by the difference in points created from assisted 3-pointers vs. 2-pointers, through Feb. 5

ASSISTS POINTS CREATED Team Player 2P 3P TOTAL 2P 3P DIFF MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo 121 168 289 242 504 +262 DET Blake Griffin 140 126 266 280 378 +98 PHI Ben Simmons 236 182 418 472 546 +74 DAL Luka Doncic 151 120 271 302 360 +58 WAS Bradley Beal 152 117 269 304 351 +47 CHA Kemba Walker 174 117 291 348 351 +3 MIL Eric Bledsoe 167 112 279 334 336 +2 ATL Trae Young 239 155 394 478 465 -13 SAS DeMar DeRozan 192 123 315 384 369 -15 SAC De’Aaron Fox 227 146 373 454 438 -16 PHX Devin Booker 174 108 282 348 324 -24 GSW Kevin Durant 192 119 311 384 357 -27 BOS Kyrie Irving 195 120 315 390 360 -30 HOU James Harden 251 151 402 502 453 -49 UTA Ricky Rubio 182 104 286 364 312 -52 WAS John Wall 178 101 279 356 303 -53 GSW Draymond Green 178 96 274 356 288 -68 LAL LeBron James 167 85 252 334 255 -79 MIN Jeff Teague 171 79 250 342 237 -105 BKN D’Angelo Russell 230 116 346 460 348 -112 MEM Mike Conley 225 103 328 450 309 -141 OKC Russell Westbrook 321 163 484 642 489 -153 UTA Joe Ingles 191 73 264 382 219 -163 LAC Lou Williams 185 69 254 370 207 -163 IND Darren Collison 219 89 308 438 267 -171 NOP Jrue Holiday 293 138 431 586 414 -172 POR Damian Lillard 231 88 319 462 264 -198 LAL Lonzo Ball 194 61 255 388 183 -205 DEN Nikola Jokic 285 114 399 570 342 -228 TOR Kyle Lowry 287 101 388 574 303 -271

Source: PBPstats.com

At the top of the list, Antetokounmpo finds himself in the company of a few other big ball handlers — Griffin, Ben Simmons, Luka Doncic — who can distribute to their teammates from the inside out. LeBron James, who is basically the prototype for this point-forward approach, assisted on 344 of his teammates’ 3-pointers in Cleveland last year (for 1,032 points), more than any other player in the NBA. (He created 226 more points on the 3s he assisted than on 2s.) Antetokounmpo is on pace to post a similarly lopsided distribution of assists this season.

Impressively, when Antetokounmpo has been on the court this season, 89 percent of the Bucks’ 3-pointers have been assisted; that’s 11 percentage points more than the team’s assisted-3 rate when he’s been on the bench. The Bucks’ improved spacing seems to be helping Antetokounmpo create all the right shots for his Milwaukee teammates.

Establishing a faster pace has gone hand-in-hand with the Bucks’ efforts to create better spacing. Budenholzer has emphasized playing with urgency and purposeful movement, and the team has shaved nearly a second off the duration of its average offensive trip (from 14.0 to 13.1 seconds per possession). According to Synergy Sports, the Bucks have attempted fewer field goals this season during the last seven seconds of the shot clock (from 19 percent of all field-goal attempts to 15 percent) and have correspondingly increased the proportion of their attempts (from 59 percent to 65 percent) that are attempted with somewhere between seven and 18 seconds remaining on the shot clock.

Antetokounmpo helps push the pace for the Bucks. Budenholzer has instructed his lanky star to dribble the ball up the court immediately after securing any defensive rebound, which has created more uptempo half-court possessions and shots in semitransition.

The Bucks are shooting better when they keep their offensive flow uptempo like this — with an effective field-goal percentage of 56 percent on shots taken with between seven and 18 seconds left on the shot clock and just 48 percent on their more slowly developing shots.

A new and more modern offensive approach predicated on floor spacing and pace, along with some smart personnel decisions, have helped Budenholzer unlock the immense potential of the Bucks’ young superstar. Perhaps when they hired Budenholzer the Bucks would have been happy with winning a playoff series. But with Milwaukee in pole position for its first conference championship appearance in nearly two decades, the Bucks now have eyes on a bigger prize. The older Milwaukee generation is surely reminiscing of the summer of ’71 — the last time there was a transformative young star in town. And who knows, maybe this season will end like that one, with an NBA championship for the Bucks.

Check out our latest NBA predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-milwaukee-bucks-brought-their-offense-into-the-21st-century/

[junker-town]

Ohio State is loaded with talent, but also has a glaring issue

Since this preview’s original publication, Urban Meyer has been suspended for three Saturdays.

Note: The following preview was originally published on July 9, before Urban Meyer fired assistant coach Zach Smith amid allegations of domestic abuse.

Meyer was later suspended due to his handling of claims against Smith.

The head coach will miss all of Week 1 against Oregon State and the following two Saturdays against Rutgers and TCU, replaced by OC Ryan Day.

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football is complete. Catch up here!

There are two ways to win games: by making more plays than the other team or by making fewer mistakes.

Aesthetically, the former is more preferable. The latter approach wins, though, and despite moments of extreme offensive upside, Urban Meyer teams have always reserved the right to grind defenses down. His Tim Tebow teams at Florida were happy to create third-and-3s and then send their burly QB into the line for exactly three yards. And the J.T. Barrett Ohio State teams made Meyer’s approach look downright Woody Hayesian at times.

In four years with Barrett as at least a part-time starter, the Buckeyes went an incredible 49-6, finishing sixth or better in the AP poll in all four seasons. The defense ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 15 all four times, and the offense ranked seventh or better in Off. S&P+ twice.

Barrett finished with 9,434 passing yards and 3,263 rushing yards — more than Tebow on both accounts, and in fewer games. In his three mostly full seasons, he damn near averaged 3,000/1,000 per year. He was also a security blanket, a guy Meyer trusted to protect the ball far more than he did to make plays.

That backfired on the rare occasion that Barrett lost the plot. He may have only lost six games, but he was downright horrible in five of them, including last year’s four-interception debacle the week after Penn State. When you quickly prove yourself, as Barrett did in 2014, but you never overcome your limitations, fans begin to turn on you. That’s what Washington’s Jake Browning is learning now.

Still, they were immensely successful seasons, and Barrett has left his successor a high bar. We just assume OSU’s new QB, blue-chip sophomore Dwayne Haskins, is going to clear it. And we may be right.

But one thing is certain: the security blanket is gone. Barrett’s gone, and the defense that the Buckeyes were so capable of leaning on must replace three of its top four tacklers on the line, at least two of three linebackers (with a third in injury limbo), and three of five defensive backs.

Mind you, Ohio State is still projected No. 1 in S&P+. Meyer returns lots of experienced pieces and has upgraded his recruiting from weapons-grade to nuclear, with raw recruiting rankings suggesting this might be the most talented Ohio State team ever. But with a new QB, there might be a few more week-to-week mistakes, and to win at the level the Buckeyes are expecting, he might have to loosen the reins and take more chances.

That could work brilliantly for Ohio State fans and fans of fun football, but it’s not guaranteed to.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Urban Meyer

Offense

Haskins made the most of his apprenticeship. When Barrett left the Michigan game injured for the second time in four years, Haskins entered at a critical juncture — down 20-14 midway through the third quarter — and went 6-for-7 passing, set up a go-ahead touchdown with a 22-yard run, and set up a field goal with a 29-yard completion to K.J. Hill. Barrett returned the next week to lead OSU to a Big Ten title game win, but Haskins passed his primary test.

Now come a bunch more. Haskins fended off Joe Burrow (who transferred to LSU) and Tate Martell (a blue-chip redshirt freshman) in spring ball and, barring a plot twist, will be the man.

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

J.K. Dobbins

If only every new quarterback could inherit what Haskins inherits. In J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber, Ohio State has two backs who could drive the Buckeyes to lots of wins with zero pass attempts.

The duo combined for 2,029 yards (6.9 per carry) and 17 touchdowns, and after a breakout freshman campaign (1,403 yards, 7.2 per carry), Dobbins enters as one of the most touted backs in a season full of touted backs. And there’s a ton of young blue-chippers (sophomore Demario McCall, freshmen Jaelen Gill and Brian Snead) waiting their turns.

The Buckeyes do have to replace Rimington Trophy-winning Billy Price and all-conference left tackle Jamarco Jones. For most teams, that would be crippling. But all-conference guard Michael Jordan and third-team all-conference tackle Isaiah Prince are back, two other upperclassmen (Demetrius Knox and Brandon Bowen) have combined for 14 starts, and — again — there are blue-chippers in wait: redshirt freshmen Wyatt Davis and Josh Myers, incoming freshmen Nicholas Petit-Frere and Matthew Jones, etc.

Ohio State ranked second in the country in Rushing S&P+ thanks to the combination of extreme efficiency (first in rushing success rate) and a lack of negative plays (third in stuff rate). Haskins might not be as efficient a runner as Barrett (few are), but I’d be floored if this offense weren’t still top-five in run efficiency.

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Parris Campbell

When Haskins does have to throw, he’ll survey a receiving corps that returns almost intact. Tight end Marcus Baugh, the recipient of the game-winner against Penn State, is gone. But that’s it. H-Backs Hill and Parris Campbell (combined: 96 catches for 1,133 yards, plus 11 carries for 133 yards) are back. So are wideouts Binjimen Victor, Terry McLaurin, Austin Mack, and Johnnie Dixon (combined: 94 catches for 1,550 yards and 23 touchdowns). If it seemed like Dixon scored every time he touched the ball, that’s only slightly inaccurate; eight of his 18 receptions were scores. And yes, there are young blue-chippers: sophomore Jaylen Harris, freshmen Kamryn Babb and L’Christian Smith, freshman tight end Jeremy Ruckert, etc.

This is almost unfair.

Coordinator (and former Indiana head coach) Wilson’s first season under Meyer was perfectly fine. The Buckeyes ranked seventh in Off. S&P+ and third in overall success rate, won 12 games and the Big Ten, etc.

His 2018 attack might feel more like a Wilson offense, though. His best Indiana offense (the 2013 edition, which ranked sixth in Off. S&P+) and his best attack as Oklahoma OC (first in 2008) took to the air more than Ohio State did last year. IU QBs in 2013 threw 39 passes per game (OSU QBs averaged 31 per game last year), and OU’s Sam Bradford threw for 4,720 yards over 35 passes per game in 2008.

In going from Barrett to Haskins, you’re trading a bit of rushing efficiency for passing upside. And it would be irresponsible not to use this ridiculous receiving corps.

Then again, it would also be irresponsible not to load up Dobbins, Weber, and company. This is an embarrassment of riches.

Defense

Greg Schiano is, according to most admirers and detractors, cranky and overbearing. He wasn’t that liked as Tampa Bay’s head coach, and while Tennessee fans’ rebellion at the thought of Schiano becoming their head coach was in some ways overly dramatic, there were some legitimate reasons.

In terms of pure college coaching prowess, Schiano’s record is hard to surpass, and I mean that in a couple ways. First, he transformed Rutgers from laughingstock to perennial bowl contender (and, for the briefest of moments, national contender). And his two years as Meyer’s coordinator have been about as good as Meyer envisioned. The Buckeyes ranked fifth in Def. S&P+ in 2016 and eighth last year.

There were two shaky moments last year. They couldn’t slow down Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma enough — they gave up 31 points and 6.8 yards per play, which were enough to lose in Columbus but still nearly season lows for the Sooners — and got strangely torched by Iowa’s tight ends and fullbacks in the 55-24 debacle in Iowa City. Take those two games out, and they allowed just 4 yards per play and 15 points per game.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Bosa (97)

There are more pieces to replace on defense than offense, though the guys moving in are experienced and (of course) well-touted. And like Penn State, OSU handed out playing time to lots of guys, both because they played in a lot of blowouts and because Schiano likes to reward guys with PT.

Eleven linemen, 10 linebackers, and nine defensive backs made at least 7.5 tackles last season; of those 30, 20 are back. That makes the “losing a lot of pieces” thing look less dire.

There are still areas of need, though, namely at linebacker and safety.

At linebacker, Jerome Baker and Chris Worley are gone after combining for 102.5 tackles and 13 tackles for loss. The third starter, sophomore-to-be Tuf Borland, injured his Achilles in the spring. Meyer expects Borland back this fall, but this hurts from a practice perspective.

There’s still experience. Juniors Malik Harrison, Keandre Jones, and Justin Hilliard are around, as is senior Dante Booker. They each made between 12 and 29 tackles last year, and sophomore and former all-world recruit Baron Browning looked this spring like he might be ready.

At safety, junior Jordan Fuller’s back, but the next two names (Damon Webb and Erick Smith) are not. There’s as much young potential here as anywhere on the roster, but the unit will be young — someone from a batch of sophomores (Isaiah Pryor, Brendon White, Jahsen Went) or freshmen (Josh Proctor, Marcus Hooker) will need to step up. Pryor, another former all-world recruit, could be ready.

Elsewhere on the two-deep are stars upon stars. For most teams, losing a trio of awesome ends in Sam Hubbard, Jalyn Holmes, and Tyquan Lewis would be cause for alarm; OSU still returns Nick Bosa (16 TFLs, 8.5 sacks), though, plus Chase Young (yet another blue-chip sophomore) and Jonathan Cooper; the latter two combined for nearly the same disruption rates as Hubbard when given opportunities.

At tackle, you’ve still got Dre’Mont Jones, Davon Hamilton, and Jashon Cornell, and you’ll probably have to make room for blue-chippers Taron Vincent and Tommy Togiai.

At cornerback, top-five pick Denzel Ward is gone, but Damon Arnettte and Kendall Sheffield (plus three four- or five-star sophomores in Jeffrey Okudah, Amir Riep, and Marcus Williamson) are back.

Again, just a ridiculous number of options here.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Damon Arnette

This being Ohio State, there are even blue-chip backups on the coaching staff. Schiano hasn’t found a new head coaching gig yet, but Meyer brought over Washington State’s immaculately successful DC, Alex Grinch, to serve as safeties coach and co-coordinator and go through Head Coach Finishing School.

Special Teams

The first coach a lot of people thought of when the NCAA announced new kickoff rules (you can now call fair catch on any kick inside the 25, and it’ll count as a touchback) was Meyer. Does this negate the effect of his famed coffin corner kickoff — pooching the ball high and into a corner, where the coverage unit can cut the field in half and prevent good returns? Will he keep doing it?

The answer to the latter appears to be yes. The answer to the former: it doesn’t matter because the Buckeyes weren’t very good at it last year — they ranked just 99th in kickoff efficiency.

That led to more of a mortal field position average than normal (plus-3.7 yards per possession, 23rd in FBS), but the Buckeyes still had a great punter (Drue Chrisman) and explosive kick returns. Special teams was still a strength. And everyone’s back.

2018 outlook

2018 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep Oregon State 110 39.2 99% 8-Sep Rutgers 84 32.6 97% 15-Sep at TCU 22 13.1 78% 22-Sep Tulane 98 36.1 98% 29-Sep at Penn State 8 4.3 60% 6-Oct Indiana 58 27.3 94% 13-Oct Minnesota 67 28.7 95% 20-Oct at Purdue 54 21.3 89% 3-Nov Nebraska 60 27.5 94% 10-Nov at Michigan State 11 6.5 65% 17-Nov at Maryland 80 26.2 94% 24-Nov Michigan 10 11.2 74%

Projected S&P+ Rk 1 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 2 / 10 Projected wins 10.4 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 22.4 (2) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 1 / 2 2017 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 5 / 4.7 2017 TO Luck/Game +0.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 62% (72%, 51%) 2017 Second-order wins (difference) 11.6 (0.4)

The Big Ten East could be absurd, as four teams are projected 11th or better in S&P+. Plus, Ohio State heads to Arlington to play “at” TCU. And all this with a first-time starter at QB.

And yet, the Buckeyes are projected S&P+ favorites in every game, projected to win by fewer than 11 points in just two (at Penn State, at Michigan State). Despite a schedule that features four opponents projected 22nd or higher, three away from Columbus, they have a 15 percent chance of going 12-0, pretty much the most favorable forecast you’re going to see.

That’s how many toys OSU has. They have a wealth of proven stars — Dobbins, Weber, Hill, Campbell, Jordan, Bosa, Fuller, Arnett, Sheffield — and it seems there are three blue-chip sophomores for every opening, with two blue-chip freshmen after that.

I was one of the bigger Barrett proponents you could find, and I can’t even pretend to be worried about anything in Columbus. Even in one of the country’s most loaded divisions, Ohio State is a runaway favorite.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

[cyberdelusionphilosopher-blog]

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What is some cheap full coverage insurance alabama?

Why is my car insurance so high?

I have full coverage insurance on my 2005 Honda civic and I am paying a little over $850 every six months. Every quote I get isn't much better. Why is it so expensive? My insurance lady says that it's because I am a young driver with a newer car. But my YOUNGER sister has a car 2 years newer than mine and she pays about $350 less every six months. I have no tickets on my record. I did have my license suspended about 5 years ago. Why is it so expensive and how can I get it down? I can't afford this sh* t. Thank you!

What would be a good price quote for motorcycle insurance SR-22?

I baught a motorcycle about a month ago and got it running last weekend. I only paid $400 for it. I need SR-22 insurance to get my license back and was wondering what is fair to pay for such insurance on a motorcycle worth no more than $400.

Insurance complaint?

i just insured my car and my previous insurer will not send me my no claims forms for me to show to my new insurance company which is resulting in my insurance going up 500 is there any where i can complain

""Affordable braces (Columbus, OH)?""

I'm wondering if anyone knows of any Orthodontists that will do braces within an affordable price range around Columbus, Ohio. I'm willing to travel out of city, not so much out of state. I have two kids that are in desperate need of braces, but I can't afford to get both of them done with the prices that most orthodontists have been giving me. One of my girlfriends told me that she got her son's braces done for about $1700, which AMAZED me. Unfortunately, that office is now closed. Does anyone know where I can get braces done without going out of the price range of about $3000 each? I'm willing to go higher, but with this economy, not much higher. Also, I do already have dental insurance.""

How to check online what my car insurance for curtain car will be?

I dont own any car right now. Lets say i want to buy Honda civic for $4000 year 2000. I am 27 and have 4 years driving experience in US, no points. 1. how to check what my insurance will be? 2. how to search the cheapest car insurance on the mkt for beginners like me? Thank you.""

On average how much does it cost to deliver a baby in a hospital?

With insurance, what is usually the total parents have to pay?""

Can somebody explain to me about car insurance for a 16 year old (teen) driver?

I'll be getting a license soon, but don't know how insurance works. I've heard that once you have turned 16 with a license then you will automatically be added to your parents insurance and will be required to pay extra for a certain amount of months. Another thing I was told was that I wouldn't have to pay until I was 18. But If anyone can please tell me all that there is to know and the price for the average teen driver. I'll be driving an old 89 Toyota camry. Also I can maintain good grades. I live in the state of Washington. Parents insurance is State Farm.""

Why do we need basic health insurance?

Health insurance should be for serious issues that require surgery or hospitalization. Why do I pay insurance to get a checkup or for routine visits? The problem with health insurance is it is too broad; therefore, it is too big. The idiots who say that car insurance is mandatory as an argument for mandatory health insurance leave out that it is only LIABILITY insurance that is mandatory. You are not required to insure fixing your own car if you choose not to. Think about how much more expensive it would be to take care of routine things like car maintenance, appliance replacement, etc., if they were handled through an insurance company. The answer seems to be to eliminate most of the unnecessary insurance and shrink it to only what is required. That along with serious tort reform would eliminate much of the red tape and cost. The person who abuses their things pays more to replace and fix them. Same thing with the fat people, who suck up most of the insurance money the rest of us pay.. If you choose to be fat, then you will pay more to repair your health. It seems pretty simple, but then again the current proposal is not really about health care is it???""

Car insurance for a 1973 corvette?

I'm 14 now but am starting to work. I want to buy a 1973 corvette. I would get it when I'm 16. What would the car insurance be for that car with my age?

Best New York Health Insurance?

i got married 2 months ago, I m waiting to start the process for green card! at this time I wanted to get a good health insurance, my husband doesn t know aythin about it so please help me!!!""

What insurance company dosenot check credit history?

What insurance company dosenot check credit history?

Car insurance company wont pay for my car? /:?

I got into an accident like 6 or 7 months ago. I was making a legal left hand turn and she tried to pass me on the left while I was making that left and obviously she hit me. she lied to the police and said I was pulling out from the shoulder and I didn't look to see her coming and the officer believed me and wrote my story down on the report cuz that's actually what happened lol. her insurance company (Geico) is obviously taking her side cuz they don't want to pay and even though they have the police report they are only paying me 50% and that's just unacceptable. Is there anything I can do to make them pay for at least 75% of it?( besides eyewitnesses cuz there were none )

What is the best website to compare car insurance rates?

I've been searching for the past few days and can't seem to find anything that actually compares quotes even though a lot of websites say they do. Anyone know of a great website that can help?

Whats the difference between liability insurance and full coverage? ugh im so confused!!!?

What is the difference between liability and full coverage? If you have just the minimum and get in a wreck will they pay for the car if its a total loss or is that for full coverage?

Car Accident without Collision Insurance?

i was recently in a collision the other day. i was traveling straight with the right of way, and i was hit by a driver turning left into my lane to cross the intersection. i do not have collision on my car for it is a 99 grand am, and the damage is enough to total the vehicle. when the police arrived, they did not site the accident, however an officer mentioned it is clear what happened but in the hands of the insurance company'ss. i called liberty mutual, my company, and they told me to get into contact with the other drivers. i filled out the accident forms and sent them to the police and registry. her company told me that she had already filed a claim and that they would be in contact with me. i have no prior record of poor driving. no speeding tickets, no car accidents, i have a red light ticket that i appealed and won. is there anything i should be worried about? is my car going to be covered and if so how long does anappraisall take. i took photos of all the damage for records. 99 grand am, 138000 miles, just passed inspection thanks!""

What kind of insurance do you need?

can a black cab be driven on a normal insurance or do you need a different insurance to drive it .

Non-custodial parent needs affordable health insurance?

Apparently only custodial parents can apply for CHIPS health insurance. My last job had affordable health insurance for my son, but my new job only has insurance for 800.00 a month. I only make 10.50hr and get less than 40 hrs a week. Can someone please direct me to an insurance plan that I can afford?""

Term Insurance or Whole Insurance?

I am thinking about getting life insurance. Which is a better deal, term life insurance or whole life insurance? I am 40 year old male non-smoker.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-do-i-write-notarized-statement-indicating-had-car-anthony-lopez/"

[myhauntedsalem]

32 Incredibly Weird Deaths

1. Brazilian Joao Maria de Souza was killed in 2013 when a cow fell through his roof onto him as he slept.

2. Clement Vallandigham, a 19th century US lawyer, accidentally shot himself dead while defending a murder suspect – because he was trying to demonstrate that a supposed victim could have accidentally shot himself dead. (It worked, because his client was acquitted.)

3. Canadian lawyer Garry Hoy died while trying to prove that the glass in the windows of a 24th floor office was unbreakable, by throwing himself against it. It didn’t break – but it did pop out of its frame and he plunged to his death.

4. In 2007 the deputy mayor of Delhi, Surinder Singh Bajwa, died falling off a balcony while trying to fend off a troupe of attacking monkeys.

5. Monica Meyer, the mayor of Betterton, Maryland, died while checking her town’s sewage tanks – she fell in and drowned in 15 feet of human waste.

6. Sigurd the Mighty, a ninth-century Norse earl of Orkney, was killed by an enemy he had beheaded several hours earlier. He’d tied the man’s head to his horse’s saddle, but while riding home one of its protruding teeth grazed his leg. He died from the infection.

7. The owner of the company that makes Segways died in 2010 after accidentally driving his Segway off a cliff.

8. Robert Williams, a Ford assembly line worker, is the first human in history to have been killed by a robot. He was hit by a robot arm in 1979.

9. In 1923, jockey Frank Hayes won a race at Belmont Park in New York despite being dead — he suffered a heart attack mid-race, but his body stayed in the saddle until his horse crossed the line for a 20–1 outsider victory.

10. US congressman Michael F. Farley died in 1921 as a result of shaving – because his shaving brush was infected with anthrax.

11. Several people danced themselves to death during the month-long Dance Fever of 1518 in Strasbourg, during which hundreds of people danced for about a month for no clear reason.

12. Paul G. Thomas, the owner of a wool mill, fell into one of his machines in 1987 and died after being wrapped in 800 yards of wool.

13. Edward Harrison was playing golf in Washington state in 1951 when his driver snapped, and the shaft lodged in his groin. He staggered about 100 yards before bleeding to death.

14. In 1900, American physician Jesse William Lazear tried to prove that Yellow Fever was transmitted by mosquitoes by letting infected mosquitoes bite him. He then died of the disease. Proving himself right.

15. Russian physician Alexander Bogdanov performed pioneering blood transfusions on himself, believing they would give him long life. They actually killed him after he suffered an adverse reaction.

16. Austrian tailor Franz Reichelt thought he’d invented a device that could make men fly. He tested this by jumping off the Eiffel Tower wearing it. It didn’t work. He died.

17. In 1567, the man said to have the longest beard in the world died after he tripped over his beardrunning away from a fire.

18. The Greek philosopher Chrysippus of Soli is said to have died of laughter after watching a donkey trying to eat his figs.

19. British actor Gareth Jones died of a heart attack while performing in a live televised play in 1958 – in which his character was scripted to have a heart attack. The rest of the cast improvised around his death and finished the play.

20. Mary Ward was a pioneering Irish female scientist who is sadly better known as the first person in history to ever be killed in a car accident – while driving with her family in their experimental “road locomotive steam engine”.

21. And the first pedestrian ever killed by a car was Bridget Driscoll of Croydon, London, in 1896.

22. Carl Wilhelm Scheele was a brilliant Swedish chemist who had an unwise habit of tasting all the chemicals he discovered. He died in 1786 as a result of his exposure to lead, hydrofluoric acid, arsenic and various other poisons.

23. Engineer Horace Lawson Hunley pioneered submarine design in the American Civil War – although most of them sank. He died when his final model, named after himself, sank while he was in command of it.

24. General John Sedgwick was killed by a sniper in the American Civil War shortly after uttering the words “They couldn’t hit an elephant at this distance.” (Contrary to popular belief, though, they weren’t his last words. They were his second-last. His last words were agreeing that dodging was in fact a good idea.)

25. Health fanatic Basil Brown managed to kill himself by drinking a gallon of carrot juice a day, in the belief it would make him healthy.

26. In 1992, Greg Austin Gingrich died in the Grand Canyon after jokingly pretending to fall to his death, then losing his footing and actually falling to his death.

27. Queen Sunanda Kumariratana of Siam (now Thailand) drowned in 1880 in full view of many of her subjects – because they were forbidden to touch her, so couldn’t rescue her.

28. The first people ever killed in an air accident were hot air balloon pioneers Jean-François Pilâtre de Rozier and Pierre Romain, in 1785.

29. And the first person ever killed in a powered aeroplane crash was Lieutenant Thomas Selfridge in 1908, in a plane piloted by Orville Wright.

30. An Irish woman died in 2008 after voluntarily having sex with a dog. The exact cause of death is unclear, although it was speculated that an allergic reaction to dogs might have been the cause.

31. Twenty-one people died in the Boston Molasses Disaster of 1919, when a massive tank of molasses burst on a warm day, sending a 25ft high wave of sweetener through the city at 35mph.

32. And eight people died in the London Beer Flood of 1814, when a giant vat at a brewery burst, sending over 3,500 barrels of beer pouring though the nearby streets.

[dpinoycosmonaut]

NBA PLAYOFFS ARE HERE, AND WE PREDICT WHO’LL MOVE ON

by Bert A. Ramirez / April 14, 2018

               All right, the NBA playoffs are finally here, and the much-hyped “second season” of the world’s premier basketball league is as unpredictable as ever with all the injuries and the surprises that have marked its 1,230-game regular season.

               The defending champion Golden State Warriors, eased out of the top seed in the West by Houston, are without Stephen Curry in the first round, while Boston will not even have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, the Celtics’ biggest offseason acquisitions, for the entire playoffs. Last year’s losing finalist, Cleveland, meanwhile, had to do a makeover just to make it this far while Utah and Indiana, given up for lost after both lost their top dogs, Hayward and Paul George, either through free agency or trade during the offseason, just missed out having the homecourt advantage in the first round.

               So who will come out of the opening round and move on to the conference semifinals?  Below are our predictions, for better or for worse:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Toronto Raptors (59-23) vs. No. 8 Washington Wizards (43-39)

               The Raptors, relying on a more egalitarian, ball movement-heavy offense, posted the best record in their 23-year history, and they’re not about to deviate from that style now, despite a more deliberate and sometimes more star-oriented approach during the postseason. All-Stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry plus center Jonas Valanciunas figure to be the main men in the Raptors’ scheme of things, and they can only go as far as this trio will take them, regardless of style of play.

               The Wizards, who swept the Raptors in four games in 2015, are not about to do that again no matter if four of the top players from that squad – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. and Marcin Gortat – continue to be at the forefront along with frontcourt additions Kelly Oubre Jr. and Markieff Morris, but the Wizards continue to be a dangerous matchup especially with Wall now available after missing half of the season because of a pesky left knee injury.

               In the end, however, the Raptors’ new-found system and depth could eventually prove too much for the Wizards.

               Prediction: Raptors win 4-1.

No. 2 Boston Celtics (55-27) vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)

               The Celtics just about survived perhaps the worst spate of injuries they’ve suffered in recent memory, and the question now is, would they survive in the playoffs without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward for their entirety, and defensive ace Marcus Smart against this dangerous Bucks team?

               Coach Brad Stevens, who has improved the Celts’ record in every year since he arrived in 2013, has shown how well he could do a patch-up job with a lineup of youngsters Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier and Semi Ojeleye and veterans Al Horford, Marcus Morris, Greg Monroe and Aron Baynes, and that ability will be tested against this Milwaukee squad, which is led by fringe MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose averages of 26.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.45 steals and 1.41 blocks are even more impressive than LeBron James’ at this stage.

               It won’t be totally unthinkable therefore if the Bucks score an upset particularly if such guys as Eric Bledsoe, who’s made a big difference since coming in from Phoenix in November, as well as Khris Middleton, last year’s top rookie Malcolm Brogdon and Jabari Parker, if he’s fully recovered from his torn left anterior cruciate ligament, are able to provide the needed support.

               Prediction: Celtics win 4-3.

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers (52-30) vs. No. 6 Miami Heat (44-38)

               The 76ers were absolutely, utterly and unequivocally the hottest team in the NBA at the end of the regular season after winning their last 16 games and putting together the second-best record in the league in the last 50 games, and this they did even with Joel Embiid missing the last eight games after fracturing an orbital bone in his left eye in a victory against New York and undergoing surgery on March 31.  This, in fact, is the only question surrounding the Sixers, who have seen their star center prove to be one of the game’s rising superstars alongside the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis with averages of 22.9 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.76 blocks but whose fitness is now questionable at least in the early part of the first round.

               Still, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra would have to squeeze something more from Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, Kelly Olynyk, Josh Richardson, James Johnson and returning veteran Dwyane Wade to overcome this team of likely Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, J.J. Redick, Robert Covington and Marco Belinelli, who seems to have found a home in Philly after coming in last February.  

               Prediction: 76ers win 4-1.

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32) vs. No. 5 Indiana Pacers (48-34)

               LeBron James, for the first time since he became a champion, doesn’t have a couple of All-Stars on his side, with Kevin Love the only one left after Kyrie Irving was traded in the offseason and the Isaiah Thomas, Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose experiment did not prove to be as good as hoped for.  Now, former Lakers Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr., George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jeff Green and holdovers J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson and Kyle Korver are what’s left after a midseason upheaval.  Not a bad cast by any means but something that’s going to put James’ greatness to a test considering he won his three titles (2012, 2013 and 2016) with at least two other All-Stars on his side.

               The Pacers were one of the season’s biggest surprises with certain Most Improved Player Victor Oladipo performing better than expected and a motley crew of big man Myles Turner, Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis showing surprising grit, smarts and teamwork under coach Nate McMillian, but these Pacers have to do more than they’ve shown to get past a team led by James.

               Prediction: Cavaliers win 4-1.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Houston Rockets (65-17) vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves (47-35)

               Minnesota made the playoffs for the first time since 2004, or since Kevin Garnett was still its franchise player, clinching it only on the last day of the regular season by beating Denver in overtime, and the Timberwolves get rewarded with a faceoff with the best team in the league in Houston.

               Whatever the T’Wolves get out of this matchup will simply be the stuff that moral victories are made of, as the Rockets are not expected to give them any quarters, with the Rockets themselves on a mission to go all the way by toppling the best team in the West the past three years, Golden State.  Coach Mike D’Antoni has made the most of his All-Star backcourt of likely league MVP James Harden and Chris Paul, who seems to have recovered nicely after missing 24 games with hip and leg injuries, as well as Sixth Man of the Year candidate Eric Gordon and big man Clint Capela, who has become a force inside.

               Even with Jimmy Butler back with the T’Wolves after recovering from a meniscus injury and Karl-Anthony Towns taking his place among the league’s elite big men, coach Tom Thibodeau’s charges will be hard-pressed to score an upset.

               Prediction: Rockets win 4-1.

No. 2 Golden State Warriors (58-24) vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs (47-35)

               The Warriors were one of the hardest-hit by injuries during the regular wars, with their entire quartet of All-Stars out at one point, but make no mistake, the defending champs have not lowered their expectations at all despite the absence of All-World guard Stephen Curry, who is out for the first round recovering from a sprain in the medial collateral ligament in his left knee.

               The Warriors, with All-Stars Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green plus a plethora of great role players and a pace-and-space system installed by coach Steve Kerr, are simply too talented, too experienced and too driven to suffer any lapse especially against a Spurs team that has been missing its own top star Kawhi Leonard practically all season long.  The Spurs, despite seeing their streak of 50-win seasons end at 18, nonetheless extended their record playoff string to 21 years on the heroic play of LaMarcus Aldridge, who took over the team’s leadership with Leonard out, and on a defense that remains one of the best in the game.

               Still, it’s almost unfair to expect Gregg Popovich’s club to make any noise this time against one of the top, if not the top, favorites to win it all.

               Prediction: Warriors win 4-1.  

No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers (49-33) vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans (48-34)

               Here’s an intriguing matchup of contrasting teams: A Trail Blazers squad built around its All-Star backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, and a Pelicans club that relies on All-World frontcourter Anthony Davis.

               The Blazers were actually one of the big surprises of the season, ranking third in the loaded Western Conference, and it’s due in no small measure to the MVP play of Lillard, whose body of work included a fourth-ranking 26.9-point average to go along with 6.6 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.05 steals.  McCollum, meanwhile, provides Portland with a second 20-point scorer and a defensive stalwart that’s helped the Blazers rank in the top 10 on that end of the court.

               While the Pelicans counter with two 20-point scorers of their own, one of them, DeMarcus Cousins, is out for the season after tearing his Achilles in January.  They will now bank on Davis (a second-leading 28.1 points, 11.1 boards, 2.57 blocks and 1.53 steals) to lead them to their first playoff series victory since eliminating Dallas in 2008.  Don’t count them out being able to do this.

               Prediction: Pelicans win 4-3.    

No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder (48-34) vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz (48-34)

               This is another intriguing matchup of contrasts, with the star-studded Thunder of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony out to slay the no-name Jazz, who from the start had been given up for lost after losing top star Gordon Hayward to Boston in the offseason through free agency.  But the Jazz, with Coach of the Year candidate Quin Snyder at the helm, proved that they’re not just Hayward’s team, as top rookie candidate Donovan Mitchell surprised everybody with his stellar play, Rudy Gobert rose to the occasion particularly after coming back from injury to practically lay claim on the Defensive Player of the Year honors, and guys like Ricky Rubio, Derrick Favors and Joe Ingles held their part of the bargain.

               The question is, does this Jazz squad have enough firepower to withstand what is expected to be a star-centered assault by the Thunder?  Westbrook, fresh from averaging a triple-double for the second straight year, is by himself already a handful.  How the Jazz defense can limit the expected attack by the Thunder will, in a large way, dictate how this series goes.

               Prediction: Thunder win 4-3.

(Photo by Carlos Avila Gonzalez of THE CHRONICLE)

[brido]

An Exhaustive Look at the 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

The 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame ballots were just released. I fucking love that shit. I have time on my hands. And I wanted to weigh in before all the baseball nerds starts going crazy with it in January. Since the writers can only pick 10 guys, that’s what I’ll do too. And I chose Bill James’ Hall of Fame Standards numbers to decide what order I’d go in. I could have picked Jay Jaffe’s JAWS rankings for that. Maybe I will some other year. Maybe that last part about Bill James and Jay Jaffe was just to scare away the people who will complain about Trevor Hoffman because they think the save stat means something. Also, I decided I’ll be skipping over the steroid guys and putting them at the bottom of the list. If there are 10 guys I think should go in before them, I’ll call it a day. Sound fair? Let’s start.  

Barry Bonds He goes to the bottom of the list. Let me get back to you on this.

Roger Clemens I’ll have to get back on this too.

Chipper Jones Jones played 19 seasons for the Atlanta Braves. He’s the best N.L. third baseman of his era and the 6th-best third baseman of all time, according to JAWS. Jones is also the 4th-best position player of his era, after Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. Every player with similar stats is either in the Hall of Fame (Mel Ott, Al Kaline, Mike Schmidt, Jeff Bagwell, Billy Williams, Mickey Mantle) or should/will be (Gary Sheffield, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre). 468 career home runs. 2,726 career hits. He won the N.L. MVP in 1999. The only eligible position player who had a better career is Bonds. This one is easy. My answer: Yes. (1/10).

Manny Ramirez I’ll have to get back to you.

Gary Sheffield Same here.

Vladimir Guerrero  Gurrero played for 16 seasons with the Expos, Angels, Rangers and Orioles, swinging at horrible pitches and still hitting .318 on his career. He also hit 449 home runs and collected 2,590 hits, which puts him in selective company with only 20 other players, all of whom are inner-circle Hall of Famers, with the exceptions of Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Rafael Palmeiro, Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera. And at least four of those guys will go in once they’re eligible. Guerrero also has similar career stats to Jeff Bagwell, Jim Rice, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams and Duke Snider. All of which makes it really surprising that WAR is not his best friend here.

When WAR is brought into the equation, Guerrero was only the best right fielder in baseball for one season (2005) and even more surprisingly, in the 1996-2011 timespan, he’s only the 4th-best right fielder behind Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu and Brian Giles. And he’s the 17th-best position player of his era. JAWS ranks him as the 21st-best right fielder in history, which would be behind Larry Walker, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith and Sammy Sosa. Is it possible that old stats love him more than the new ones?

Guerrero received MVP votes in 12 different seasons. He won the A.L. MVP in 2004. And got very close in 2002, 2005 and 2007. If I wanted to be a dick, I’d say Melvin Mora probably should have won in ’04. And I don’t see Vlad as a good candidate in ’07. Nevertheless, Guerrero consistently hit for power and average, only dipping below .300 in his brief call-up in 1996 and not again until 2009 and 2011). And those numbers added up. I mean, Brian Giles didn’t hit 300 HR or even get 1900 hits. So maybe he wasn’t a first ballot Hall of Famer. But I think he should get in. My Answer: Yes. (2/10).    

Larry Walker   Walker played for 17 seasons with the Expos, Rockies and Cardinals. During his career (1989-2005), he was the best right fielder in baseball. He’s the 10th best right fielder of all time, according to JAWS and the best right fielder ever not in the Hall of Fame. During his own career, Walker is the 5th-highest in WAR after Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Jeff Bagwell and Alex Rodriguez. His career stats (383 HR. 2160 H. .313 AVG) are similar to Duke Snider, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize and Chuck Klein, as well as Vladimir Guerrero. He won the N.L. MVP in 1997. It looks pretty good on paper. You probably just need to decide if you care that Walker was better playing in the thin air of Denver than he was on the road.

If Walker is an iffy Hall of Fame player to begin with, it’s easy to dismiss his numbers as wind-aided. And there’s also the fact that Walker’s career was plagued by injuries (Walker missed 375 games between 1996-2004). So his counting stats are down for the steroid era - an argument that strikes me as fucking idiotic considering we’d be penalizing a player for NOT juicing, while also penalizing players who did. Also, there are stats that exist to adjust for ballparks and Walker still has an OPS+ of 141 for his career. For players with 1900 Games, that’s still 8th among right fielders after Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Hank Aaron, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Harry Heilmann and Sam Crawford. They’re all in the Hall of Fame.

Also, everyone seems to be acting like Walker (who had three batting titles) was a one dimensional player. The guy had seven Gold Gloves in right. He was considered an exceptional baserunner too, as if that’s anything. And why are we treating Coors Field like it had magical fucking powers over one player? If Coors Field is so fantastical, why didn’t Andres Galarraga or Ellis Burks or Dante Bichette do what Walker did? Why do they play games there to begin with or even count those stats as valid? By that logic, the Rockies shouldn’t even have a team. By that logic, why not just have one team (it’s gotta be Oakland) where everyone is allowed to take PEDs?

The truth is, Walker was an elite player in Montreal. If you’re just going off his full time there (1990-94), you’d probably choose Walker as your starting MLB right fielder over Tony Gwynn. Then he went to Colorado and kept being good. Let’s not complicate things. So he didn’t hit .380 on the road. If he did we wouldn’t even be having this debate, we’d be naming the Hall of Fame after him. My answer: Yes. (3/10).   

Jim Thome Thome played for 22 seasons with the Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, Twins and Orioles. He was universally beloved everywhere he went. I don’t know if we need to delve into things too much here. Thome hit 612 career home runs and he’s not suspected of steroids. That’s automatic. But he also has comparable career stats with Frank Thomas, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt and Willie McCovey (plus Sammy Sosa, David Ortiz and Fred McGriff). JAWS ranks him as the 10th-best first baseman of all time. I think he should have been the A.L. MVP in 2002. My answer: Yes. (4/10).

Mike Mussina Mussina pitched for 18 seasons with the Orioles and Yankees. And I’d say he was the ace of his staff 12 of those years, which is incredible. I think that if you finish in the top 10 in your league in WAR, FIP and ERA, you had an elite season. Mussina had 10 of those elite seasons, including his final season in 2008. That’s what you call consistency. He finished in the top 5 in Cy Young balloting six different times. And I think he should have won it in 2001. Mussina has similar career numbers to Juan Marichal, Jim Palmer and Carl Hubbell (as well as Curt Schilling). He’s the 28th-best pitcher of all time, according to JAWS (behind Roger Clemens, Jim McCormick and Schilling). And I’d say for his own playing era (1991-2008), he’s the 5th-best pitcher behind Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Clemens and Pedro Martinez. He even won seven Gold Gloves at pitcher. The fact that we’re even entertaining putting in Trevor Hoffman before Mussina is mind boggling to me.

I’d guess the one thing bringing down Messina’s chances might be his ERA (3.68). But his adjusted ERA+ (123) might make up for pitching in the steroid era. And not to beat a dead horse, but Mussina finished 3rd in the American League in ERA in 1992, 4th in 1994, 4th in 1995, 6th in 1997, 6th in 1998, 3rd in 1999, 3rd in 2000, 2nd in 2001, 8th in 2003, 4th in 2006 and 6th in 2008. My answer: Yes. (5/10).

Sammy Sosa Let me get back to you on that.

Jeff Kent Kent played 17 seasons for the Blue Jays, Mets, Indians, Giants, Astros and Dodgers. He was the best second baseman in the Majors in 2000 and 2002. He was the best in the N.L. from 2000-2002 and during the course of his playing era (1992-2008), he was the second-best second baseman after Craig Biggio. Kent’s career numbers are also similar to Jim Rice and Ryne Sandberg. His 377 home runs is the most ever for a second baseman. He won the 2000 N.L. MVP, even though I would have considered him 4th-best in the league that year.

Here’s the thing; since everything Kent did seems to hinge on comparing him to other second basemen, his JAWS ranking finally does him in. He’s 20th-best all-time, behind Bobby Grich, Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker, Willie Randolph, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedrioa. But, hey, he was on Survior and has the dumbest DL stint I can think of right now. My answer: No.    

Edgar Martinez Martinez played for 18 seasons, all with the Seattle Mariners. Even with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez on his team, Martinez was the best player on the Mariners in 1990, 1992, 1995 and 1999. He was the best third baseman in baseball in 1990. And he was the best DH in 1995, 1996 and 1998. During the time Martinez was a DH (1995-2004), no one was better. And he’s probably the 4th-best DH of all time after Frank Thomas, Jim Thome and Paul Molitor. He’s the only DH to win a batting title and they even named the DH award after him. But first, you just have to decide how you feel about the DH.

I say if American League pitchers (who don’t hit) can get in, so can a DH. At least they play every day. Now that that’s out of the way, we have do decide if Martinez’ numbers good enough. That part’s iffy. No one with similar numbers is in the Hall of Fame. But he did have six elite years between 1990-2000. I would have even given him the A.L. MVP in 1995. And if you look at all players’ WAR during that 11-year span, Martinez would be 5th overall, behind Barry Bonds, Griffey Jr., Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas.

Still not convinced? Okay. I already mentioned Major League Baseball naming the DH award after him. That’s gotta be something. And for my closing argument, I’ll use “The Double”. In 1995, Martinez closed out his outstanding ALDS against the Yankees with that famous walk-off double that scored Griffey. It not only sent the Mariners to the ALCS for the first time ever, it also might have saved baseball in Seattle. The excitement surrounding the team led to funding for Safeco Field and the rest is history. There are people in the Hall of Fame for dumber reasons than that. Except in Edgar’s case, you’ve got both Pedro Martinez and Mariano Rivera siting him as one of the toughest batters they ever faced. My answer: Yes (6/10).    

Fred McGriff McGriff played for 19 seasons with the Blue Jays, Padres, Braves, Devil Rays, Cubs and Dodgers. He has similar career numbers to Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas and Billy Williams (as well as David Ortiz and Gary Sheffield). He also had five elite seasons between 1988 and 1994. I actually would have given him the A.L. MVP in 1989. And if he hit 7 more home runs in his career, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.

In the meantime, JAWS isn’t doing McGriff any favors. He’s 31st all-time at first base, behind Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, Miguel Cabrera, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Helton, Mark McGwire, Keith Hernandez, Joey Votto, John Olerud, Jason Giambi, Will Clark, David Ortiz and Mark Teixeira. I’d say in his own era (1986-2004), he’d be 5th, behind Jeff Bagwell, Palmeiro, Frank Thomas, McGwire and tied with Olerud. None of that is horrible company. Some of those are steroids guys. Some will probably get in at some point or are otherwise worth revisiting. I just wouldn’t say it’s helping.  

So I have to go back and stare hard at that 493 number and think about the strike-shortened 1994 season, which was ironically the last year McGriff was an elite player. McGriff had 34 home runs through 113 games. There were 48 games remaining, McGriff had only missed one game that far and he was averaging a home run every 3.4 games. Even if he’d slowed down, seven more home runs in 1994 would have been a lock. McGriff may have been relatively forgotten because of the steroid era. But he was positively fucked by that strike.  

If people use ‘Coors Field Logic’ on Larry Walker, why can’t they use ‘Strike Logic’ on McGriff? At least Strike Logic makes actual logical sense. And if baseball turned a blind eye to the very steroid era that erased McGriff from relevancy in order to restore public interest following the strike, that means that not only did the strike fuck the Crime Dog, but the quick fix did too. From 1988-1994, McGriff was the 4th-best position player in overall WAR after Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson and Cal Ripken. After that, everyone started pumping themselves full of growth hormone and bull semen or whatever until leading the league with 35 home runs seemed more like something that would happen at the All-Star Break. McGriff has been wronged. I think that should be corrected. And I hope he wears that foam Tom Emanski cap on his plaque. My Answer: Yes. (7/10). 

Curt Schilling Schilling played for 20 seasons for the Orioles, Astros, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox. And he’s a fucking asshole. But that’s not really in question here. Schilling was elite for 8 different seasons between 1992 and 2004. He has similar career stats to John Smoltz and Don Drysdale. JAWS ranks him as the 27th-best pitcher of all time (only behind Roger Clemens and Jim McCormick for non-Hall of Famers). In his career (1988-2007), Schilling is the 5th-best, overall in WAR behind Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. He has 3 rings. He has the Bloody Sock game. And he’s a fucking asshole.

I guess starting public feuds with sportswriters isn’t always the best idea when those same sportswriters vote for these kinds of things. He’s also a Born Again Christian Creationist and a Trump guy and a Breitbart guy and a homophobe. And he’s also apparently challenging Elizabeth Warren’s Senate seat in 2018. And he’d probably be a nightmare to the steroids guys on the Veteran’s Committee. Plus, you know his Cooperstown speech would be a goddamned spectacle. And then you start to think of reasons to not vote for the guy. But I honestly liked him as a color commentator on ESPN and I have to keep telling myself that all his extracurriculars have nothing to do with what he did on the mound. He’s still an asshole though. My answer: Yes. (8/10).

Johnny Damon Damon played for 18 seasons with the Royals, Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Rays and Indians. And he stayed healthy and got a lot of hits. 2,769 to be exact. He was never an elite player or an elite center fielder (I’d have him 5th in his own era behind Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran and Mike Cameron). He was rarely the best player on his own team. He just happened to get a lot of hits. That puts his career numbers similar to guys like Paul Molitor, Tim Raines, Roberto Alomar, Robin Yount, Lou Brock and Roberto Clemente. But they all had other reasons for getting in. Damon is the 22nd-best center fielder of all time on JAWS. He’s less like those Hall of Fame players than he is Vada Pinson or Steve Finley. I loved some of his big moments on the Red Sox. And his hair was fun. He’s just not getting in. My answer: No.      

Omar Vizquel Vizquel played for 24 seasons with the Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox and Blue Jays. He played in 4 different decades and was the last Major Leaguer born in the 60’s and the last to play in the 80’s. This one is difficult because WAR is not Vizquel’s friend. He was never the best player on his own team. He wasn’t an elite shortstop, overall in his own time. JAWS ranks him as the 42nd-best shortstop of all time. And I don’t feel like naming all the non-Hall-of-Famers ahead of him. In his own lengthy era (1989-2012), he’d be behind Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Barry Larkin, Cal Ripken and Jimmy Rollins. So what argument is there?

Well, Vizquel has almost identical stats to Luis Aparicio and Rabbit Maranville. Aparicio even allowed his number to be un-retired when Vizquel went to the White. Sox in 2010. He’s also got similar stats to Ozzie Smith, Luke Appling, Pee Wee Reese and Nellie Fox. He was a defensive specialist in an era of big, slugging shortstops. And he has 11 Gold Gloves to show for it. Oh, and on top of that, he collected 2,877 hits over that long career.

But was he Aparicio? Aparicio got MVP votes in 10 different seasons. He finished second in 1959. He was a 10 time All-Star. He led the league in stolen bases his first 9 seasons in the Majors. On top of that, Aparicio had 9 Gold Gloves. From 1956-1973, Aparicio was second in WAR among shortstops to Ernie Banks. Vizquel didn’t do those things. I think I gotta hold off for now. My answer: No. But I could change my mind.

Scott Rolen Rolen played 17 seasons for the Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays and Reds. He’s one of the 3-5 best defensive third basemen of all time and, I’d say, the 3rd-best overall third baseman of his era after Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones (who will also be on the ballot for the first time). Rolen has a ring with the 2006 Cardinals. And according to JAWS and WAR, he’s the 10th best 3rd baseman of all time. Which all sounds great on paper. I just don’t know if it’s good enough.

Chipper Jones should get in before Rolen. So let’s take Chipper out of the equation for just a second. Rolen was only the best player on his own team in 1997, ’98 and ’04. He was only the best third baseman in baseball in 2002 and 2003.  Of the top 10 similar players, only one (Ron Santo) is in the Hall of Fame. His Career Standards Number is a 40, which would make him below average for a Hall of Famer. 316 career home runs and 2,077 hits are good, but not great for his era. And although he ranked among the top 10 in the league in WAR in 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006, I would have only considered him a legitimate MVP candidate one time and that’s 2004, when I would have considered him 7th. Now it’s okay to go back and remember that Chipper Jones is also on the ballot.

It’s hard for me to look anyone in the eye and say the 10th-best at any position shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame. But then again, Ted Simmons, Bobby Grich, Bill Dahlen, Kenny Lofton and Larry Walker, not to mention Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Pete Rose, Manny Ramirez and six relief pitchers would all be in the same boat. Maybe that shoulder injury that nagged him throughout his prime got the best of him. But I think he’s gotta sit out at least this round. My Answer: No. But I could easily change my mind.    

Jamie Moyer Moyer played for 25 seasons with the Cubs, Rangers, Cardinals, Orioles, Red Sox, Mariners, Phillies and Rockies. That’s an insane amount of seasons. Moyer is the only pitcher to throw shutouts in four different decades. He became the oldest player to do a lot of different things. I mean, he won 100 games after he turned 40. It’s crazy. Especially with that 81 mph fastball. I think Moyer is a great story. And I loved his resurgence on the Mariners. But he’s the 19th-best pitcher of his own era and 132nd all time. I’m impressed. I just wouldn’t put him in the Hall. My answer: No.    

Carlos Lee Lee played for 14 seasons with the White Sox, Brewers, Rangers, Astros and Marlins. He hit 358 home runs in his career, but was the 13th-best left fielder of his own era and 72nd-best ever on JAWS. No.  

Johan Santana Santana played for 12 seasons with the Twins and Mets, where he was usually the ace of both teams. He won two Cy Young Awards in Minnesota. I think he should have easily won three (the voters fucking BLEW IT in 2005). His peak is phenomenal. His career numbers are not. So you need to figure out how you feel about about that. Just try to keep in mind that a lot of more worthy pitchers (including Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina) aren’t in yet.    

The go-to guy for a high peak without the career stats is always Sandy Koufax. But Koufax was putting up WARs of 9’s and 10’s. In Santana’s four-year reign of dominance, he had three seasons with a 6.7 WAR or higher and four total with a 5 or higher. That’s really good. But Dwight Gooden did that. Kevin Brown did that. Curt Schilling was above a 6.7 four times and above a 5 WAR six times. And if you just want to start listing guys who were above a 5 WAR on four separate occasions, we can throw in Fernando Valenzuela, Bret Saberhagen (5), Frank Viola, David Cone (5), Mike Mussina (10 fucking times), Kevin Appier, Andy Pettite and Javier Vazquez. I mean, Felix Hernandez has done it five times. Clayton Kershaw has already done it six times. Chris Sale has already done it. And if that many people have done it, it’s not quite great.

Fittingly, Santana is the 6th-best pitcher in WAR over the period of 2000-2012. JAWS ranks him as the 85th-best pitcher of all time. Nobody with similar numbers is in the Hall of Fame. Who knows what would have happened if not for injuries, but fans can still look fondly upon Santana for the first no-hitter in Mets history (even though Carlos Beltran should have broken it up in the 6th), the even-better 17-strikeout, 8 inning gem against the Rangers in 2007 with a 95 Game Score (the highest ever for a non-complete game), the Major League Triple Crown win in 2006, that insane second half in 2004 and that devastating changeup. Unfortunately, he’s just not a Hall of Famer. My Answer: No.                    

Andruw Jones Jones played for 17 seasons with the Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees. He was hitting home runs in the World Series at 19. He was considered fat, washed-up and lazy by the time he was 30. And yet, he’s the greatest center fielder of his era (1996-2012), he’s the 7th-best overall position player of the same era and he might be the (gasp) greatest defensive center fielder of all time. And he has 10 consecutive Gold Gloves to show for it. JAWS ranks him as the 11th-greatest center fielder in history. Imagine what he would have done if he wasn’t lazy.

First, we probably need to get past the fact that Kenny Lofton (10th on JAWS) and Jim Edmonds (15th) didn’t make it past the first ballot. In Lofton’s own era (1991-2007) he was third in WAR to Ken Griffey Jr. and Jones, himself. In Edmonds’ era (1993-2010) he was second to Jones. Lofton was more of a stolen bases guy. Edmonds has no ‘black ink’ type of honors. Andruw Jones has a home run and an RBI title from 2005, when he hit 51 bombs. He hit 434 on his career. This is a defensive specialist, mind you. His WAR7 peak is 9th-highest in history (everyone above him is in the Hall, except for Mike Trout), while Lofton’s is 13th and Edmonds’ is 17th.

On top of all of that, the Braves made it to the post season every year from 1995-2005. Jones was there every year since ’96. And if you look at the WAR of every Brave from 95-05, Chipper Jones is first with a 57.3. And Andruw Jones is second at 55.0. If you make it 96-05, when he was actually on the roster, Andruw beats Chipper by 0.5 runs. He also beats Greg Maddux (50.0), John Smoltz (39.7) and Tom Glavine (27.1). They're all gonna be in the Hall of Fame. Why not Andruw too? You know, either that or we’re gonna have to wait until 2023 for Carlos Beltran to get in at center field. Or like, whenever Mike Trout retires. My answer: Yes. (9/10).

Wait. Okay, let me go back to Scott Rolen for just a second. I starting to feel bad that I said yes to 4 guys (Edgar Martinez, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero and Fred McGriff) who had lower career WARs than Rolen's. I also said yes to 3 guys (Jim Thome, Guerrero and McGriff) who had lower peaks than Rolen's. I didn’t like Rolen’s counting numbers (316 HR, 2077 H) but I’d say yes to Martinez (309 HR) and Jones (1933 H). He’s also higher on the JAWS ranking than Martinez by 0.8 points. No, Rolen’s not Chipper Jones. And there’s no award named after him. And he didn’t save baseball in Seattle. And he’s not the very greatest defensively at his position. And he didn’t win an MVP or come painfully close to hitting 500 home runs. But if I’m gonna stay consistent, I have to put him in. Yes. (10/10). I feel okay about that.

So there you have it. My apologies to Chris Carpenter, Billy Wagner, Carlos Zambrano, Hideki Matsui, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millwood, Trevor Hoffman, Orlando Hudson, Livan Hernandez, Kerry Wood, Brad Lidge, Jason Isringhausen and also Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa for not reviewing your careers. I just found 10 guys more deserving.

[cover32-yahoopartner-blog]

Week 2 Review: Ken Zampese out, Bengals scrambling after 0-2 start

It’s hard to remember a time when a Bengals season started on this poor of a note.

Two games. Two home games, against teams that went a combined 17-15 over the 2016 season. Nine points. The last Bengals team to go two consecutive games without a touchdown was the 2008 squad that started Ryan Fitzpatrick for 12 games. The last team to open a season with two home games and fail to score a touchdown in either was the 1939 Philadelphia Eagles.

It’s crazy to think that the Bengals can remain this bad, but they’re already in historic territory.

AROUND COVER32

Giants WR Brandon Marshall not worried about his role on offense

Analyzing the Redskins’ left guard position

Takeaways from the Eagles’ Week 2 loss to the Chiefs

Breaking down Cowboys CB Nolan Carroll

Check out the hottest news in the NFL this week

Four Quick Notes

• Almost as historic as the anemic start the Bengals’ offense has had this season was the immediate reaction made by the front office after Thursday’s game. In fifty years of owning the team, Mike Brown has never signed off on a mid-season firing of a coordinator, yet Friday came and offensive coordinator Ken Zampese received his walking papers.

Zampese joined the team as a quarterbacks coach in 2003, the same year that Carson Palmer came to Cincinnati as the first overall draft pick. He was elevated to offensive coordinator after 14 years with the team, having served under offensive coordinators Bob Bratkowski, Jay Gruden and Hue Jackson. After having success with Gruden and Jackson as internal hires, it was clear after 18 games with Zampese that the well had run dry.

Zampese isn’t a bad coach, he’s just a quarterbacks coach. He’s had success as one, and he’ll land on his feet as one in another NFL city. The Bengals, for their part, actually have to go outside at some point in order to find their next coordinator.

• Bill Lazor, the quarterbacks coach during Zampese’s stint as offensive coordinator, was promoted to fill the void left by the latter’s firing. A 45-year-old who has bounced around the league as a quarterbacks coach, Lazor himself was also fired midseason as an offensive coordinator, by the Miami Dolphins in 2015.

That’s not to say that Lazor’s tenure in the position for the Bengals is doomed, but he was essentially the Bengals’ only option. Of the six interim offensive coordinators appointed over the last two seasons, four were the quarterbacks coach of their team (Zac Taylor in Miami, Jim Bob Cooter in Detroit, Marty Morhinweg in Baltimore and Nathaniel Hackett in Jacksonville).

Ultimately, it may not matter. The chorus calling for Marvin Lewis’ job has grown louder over the past two weeks, and Lazor will almost certainly be swept out with him if Lewis has to be fired. It would be an unusually bold move for Mike Brown, but he’s already made one this season when he had to.

• It would make sense for quarterback Andy Dalton to be on some kind of hot seat after his nightmarish start to this season. According to several sources close to the Bengals – from Lewis to receiver A.J. Green to backup quarterback A.J. McCarron – that isn’t the case. Zampese has fully fallen on the sword, and the discussion about improving the offense has revolved around getting skill players more involved in the game plan.

That hasn’t stopped conspiracies from forming around changes at the quarterback position, however. Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk published a piece on Sunday suggesting that some in the locker room wanted the Bengals to pursue Kaepernick. George Iloka joined the Flying Pigskin podcast on Monday to shoot the rumor down, which is frankly more recognition than it deserved to be given. Even this five-line paragraph is pushing it.

• While the performance of the Bengals’ defense has been admirable in the face of an offense that refuses to score, their performance against Houston last Thursday was still disheartening. The book on quarterback Deshaun Watson was wide open quickly – he had about five skill position players available to him but only had eyes for DeAndre Hopkins. A stop on Houston’s last drive or not giving up a long scramble would have been enough to win the game, and both were fair requests. Even if the circumstances around them weren’t.

Regardless, this is a defensive unit that currently ranks seventh in the league in scoring defense, fifth in total yardage and first in pass yardage. All this with linebacker Vontaze Burfict having yet to return from suspension.

  Stock Up

Geno Atkins: In the interest of only choosing one repeat selection from Week 1, Geno Atkins will get the nod here. Through the first two weeks of the 2017 NFL season, Atkins has looked like the most disruptive interior presence in the NFL. Unfortunately, of course, those performances are still buried under a couple team losses on the national radar. Atkins finished with a 93.4 overall grade per Pro Football Focus. J.J. Watt led Houston with 88.8, while second place for Cincinnati was Shawn Williams’ 81.9.

Jordan Willis: Filling in the for the injured Michael Johnson, Willis had an effective night rushing off of the right edge. He wasn’t remotely near as productive as Atkins, but his 78.8 PFF grade was only marginally below the 80.0 scored by Carl Lawson in week 1. It’s wasn’t a breakout night for the third-round rookie, but it’s a solid building block for a very young career. He’s a promising piece for defensive coordinator Paul Guenther – the question that remains is whether Guenther will remain around to use him.

  Stock Down

Tyler Boyd: Boyd was held out of Thursday night’s game without an injury playing a role. It’s hard to believe that, in a game where Alex Erickson was targeted in critical situations, the Boyd that looked like a solid slot weapon in 2016 couldn’t have contributed. It’s fair to question Boyd’s role with the team going forward, especially with John Ross still needing to get on the field.

Andy Dalton: It’s hard to pin the abject failure of the offense through two weeks all on Dalton, but he has to shoulder some of the blame as the starting quarterback. Dalton’s game Thursday night was average, but he had to be more than average in order to win. If nothing else, he had to consistently find his established more-than-average players – A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert combined for only 109 yards on 8 catches. Both players, especially Eifert, haven’t been sufficiently involved in the game script over the past two weeks.

  Four Things Looking Ahead

• The most recent parallel for the Bengals’ current situation on offense is what Buffalo went through in 2016. After two weeks of fielding a subpar offense, the Bills fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman and promoted Anthony Lynn, the running backs coach, to fill the void. Coming off an 0-2 start, Lynn refocused the offense to accentuate the strengths of the personnel and run-first mentality desired by then-coach Rex Ryan. Buffalo rebounded from 0-2 to 4-2, stomping Arizona and San Francisco and shutting out New England on the road.

Buffalo was widely seen around the league then as being the first team to hit the ‘panic button’ in that season, firing Roman for the sake of firing somebody. Others saw it as Ryan scapegoating his offensive coordinator for losses caused by his defense, or even ejecting coaches he wasn’t close to from a ship he knew was sinking. While Ryan was ultimately fired, Lynn became the interim coach and now coaches the Los Angeles Chargers. Before any of that, though, he provided the Bills with a rapid turnaround. It can happen.

• Traveling to Lambeau Field is a daunting task for any NFL team. For fans, it’s daunting to watch – especially for fans who don’t have any confidence in their team’s chances of winning. That’s an understandable place for Bengals fans to find themselves in right now, but perhaps the situation is better than they’d think.

The Packers are currently dealing with injuries to starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, as well as reserve tackle Jason Spriggs. Additionally, five Packers left Sunday night’s game against the Falcons with injuries – defensive lineman Mike Daniels, receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, cornerback Davon House and safety Kentrell Brice.

Obviously, the Bengals just came off a week where they lost at home to a team similarly emaciated by injuries. No amount of injuries can guarantee an outcome for a bad team, but they can provide opportunity for a good one. If the Bengals can, in fact, come out Sunday looking like a good team, there’s a chance they’ll show it in the win column.

• Around the AFC: five teams in the Bengals’ conference are currently sitting at 0-2: themselves, Cleveland, Indianapolis, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the New York Jets. Baltimore, at 2-0, has a perfect record as a result of beating Cincinnati and Cleveland. What this means in a nutshell: the AFC hierarchy is far from established. That may seem like an obvious truth of week 3 in the NFL, but it doesn’t always feel that way.

• Past the Packers, the Bengals head to Cleveland in week 4, host Buffalo in week 5, then have a bye during week 6. It’s entirely possible that Cincinnati goes into the bye at 2-3. Cleveland and Buffalo have one win between them over two weeks (against the Jets), and have both averaged under 20 points per game. Again, they’re not hand-outs, but the Bengals don’t have to become world-beaters to win them. They just have to play to the sum of their parts.

  – Andrew Hammel is the managing editor for cover32/Bengals and covers the Cincinnati Bengals for cover32

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Greg Norman: All I Know About Winning in Golf, Business and Life

The trek to Greg Norman's getaway in northwest Colorado is a roundabout one. The retreat is tucked away in a remote, evergreen-covered corner of this rugged state, an area so isolated that GPS is little help. An unmarked dirt road runs from the highway to his front door, uncoiling like the rattlesnakes that lurk in the brush. Driving for some 30 minutes, you feel lost. Definitely lost. Then his Rocky Mountain Xanadu appears: a 14,000-square-foot "cabin," two miles of fly-fishing nirvana, and wildlife at every turn. Norman's ranch is as beautiful and seemingly as vast as the snowcapped Rockies that encircle it. It's difficult to fathom how he parlayed "only" 20 PGA Tour wins into this.

Of course, the Shark was chasing much more than just trophies. Like Arnold Palmer before him, Greg Norman oozed charisma, both on and off the course. He bestrode fairways with a swashbuckling, take-no-prisoners (and look good doing it) style that made everyone notice. Prize money? That was chump change. Norman saw a worldwide brand as the ultimate reward, and he has gone on to amass a fortune that has been estimated at $400 million. Sure, there were bumps along the road. Take the well-publicized divorce from his first wife in 2006 that halved his assets (au revoir, $103 million); the heartbreaking near misses in eight majors; his clash with the PGA Tour over his World Tour brainchild, which he calls the low point of his career. But you don't become an icon by surrendering to adversity. "Failure makes you stronger," says Norman, 58, now three years into his third marriage (with interior designer Kirsten Kutner, 45). How strong? Great White Shark Enterprises operates 16 profitable ventures in areas ranging from real-estate development to turf research to prime beef sales. Like his ravenous namesake, the Great White Shark is far from satisfied. He's got big plans. Welcome to the success secrets of a man in full -- the guiding thoughts that helped a kid from Mount Isa, Australia, ascend from a $32-a-week job in a pro shop to the pinnacle of the golf world, and build his brand into a booming international business.

Do Your Homework

I became a good businessman because I was a good golfer. Golf taught me how to practice, formulate a strategy and then execute it -- a due-diligence process that also fuels good business decisions. Some people are naturals at business. I'm not, but I had a great education through golf.

Patience Is Underrated

I signed my first contract with Reebok in 1989. Paul Fireman, Reebok's CEO, had a dream for me, but eventually structured the deal so I could function as my own brand. That was huge. The more independent you can be in life, the better. But since I didn't have a lot of marketing or branding knowledge at the time, I was patient. I didn't go for the quick buck. I focused only on how big it could become. I'm lucky in that I have pretty good long-term vision. Why do I have it? I don't know. But here we are decades later -- and I've only reached 20 percent of what this company is capable of achieving.

I was a different person on the course. I wasn't as patient, because I didn't have to be. I knew everything about the game and was super-confident in my abilities. I played by the sword and died by it. Would I have changed some things about my game knowing what success in business has taught me? It's something that I'd consider. But don't get me wrong -- I have zero regrets.

Winning Is About Heart

A lot of people ask how I'd stack up against today's players if I had use of modern equipment. Listen, it's not about the gear. Winning is about what's in your heart and in your head. Equipment dictates how to play the game in an era, but the physical and mental skills are the same. And I had them. I never feared anything or anyone on the course, and I wasn't afraid to fail. So I think I'd do pretty well against Snead, Hogan, Tiger and Phil -- whoever. Tiger's a tough guy, but I was a tough guy on the course, too. I probably would have beat him.

Never Blame Your Tools

The best are always going to be the best, no matter what you chuck in their bag. Send five guys out on Augusta National with hickory-shafted clubs and gutta-percha balls, and the guy with the most talent will always win. Technology allows you to extract certain things from your equipment, but how you extract it is dependent upon your ability to swing the club. Science can only take you so far.

The Secret's in the Shaft

When I was young I read a lot of articles by Ben Hogan. He wrote pages on the stiffness and torque he used in his shafts. I remember thinking, Sh-t! I need to figure this out. I spent a lot of time trying different shafts and, when I found a good match, making sure the spine was set in the same place on every club. I got it right, so I can't figure out why today's pros can't do likewise. Take Rory [McIlory]. It's absurd to say he has gear issues. It's so easy to re-create the same specs and feel from one set to the next. Something else is going on [with him].

Play Within Your Limits

The biggest difference between weekend players and pros? Let's say we're both 100 yards from the pin -- a sand wedge for me and a gap wedge for you. I'll use my pitching wedge and swing at 70 percent. You'll hit your gap wedge at 100 percent. And you'll lose. Weekend players go for broke while pros look for a way to play the minimum.

Play with Precision

When I was playing my best, my caddie, Bruce Edwards, would give me half yardages -- as in, "Greg, you've got 147 and a half yards to the pin." Sounds extreme, but a half-yard is 18 inches, which often means the difference between "good chance" and "no chance" on the ensuing putt. Spend time getting to know your distances and how to be precise with them on the fly. You may not realize it, but the distance you hit the ball changes with the atmosphere. Those humid early-morning rounds? You're going to lose yards. Similarly, the ball will jump when it's hot or dry. Guys can drive it 300 yards today without blinking an eye, but it's still a precision game.

Keep Your Swing Simple

There are a lot of moving parts in the swing, but you can't worry about each and every one. Charlie Earp, my first coach, taught me to always keep the triangle formed by my shoulders and grip in front of my body, from start to finish. If you maintain the triangle as you rotate, everything else falls into place. I've used this tip for 35 years. Hold the triangle, get the club parallel at the top, then let 'er rip (see sequence, below).

Listen to Your Body

The last time you saw me on TV was probably during the 2008 British Open at Royal Birkdale, where I had the 54-hole lead before finishing third. That wasn't the swing you saw in the 1980s and '90s. My stance is wider now, and I stop my backswing short of parallel. I have to. My body can't take the stress of rotating anymore.

I used to be super-flexible -- I could even do splits. It was the source of my power, but it allowed me to overrotate. I developed so many stress fractures in my spine that I ended up needing surgery. Butch Harmon was the one to get me to widen my stance, which automatically limits rotation. I fought him at first, but then listened to what Mother Nature was telling me. And I darn near won that Open.

Golf places severe pressure on your joints, so you either have to take excellent care of your body or find a swing that isn't so taxing. We get older and more frail. That's life.

Find a Confidence Boost

Success breeds success. I started playing golf at age 16, and by the time I was 21 I was competing in professional events. I knew I was good, but I didn't know how good until the 1976 West Lakes Classic, an Australian Tour event held at the Grange G.C. in Adelaide. I was a complete nobody, and the field had Bruce Devlin, Bruce Crampton, David Graham, and a couple of guys from the PGA Tour. By the end of the third round I had a 10-shot lead. That was it for me. I knew right then and there that I could be great. Everyone needs a shot of confidence, and my victory at the Grange -- the first of 89 pro wins -- was it.

Build a Swing Foundation

I went from novice to scratch in two years. I was lucky in that the things I liked to do before I got into golf, mainly surfing, established foundations for my game. Surfing develops your core, lat muscles and shoulders -- the engines of your swing. Plus it gives you balance. When you're riding a wave your proprioceptors [sensory receptors that detect body position] are firing on all cylinders -- you learn balance very quickly. I've talked about how surfing helps your swing with [pro surfer] Kelly Slater. Kelly loves golf, and we agree that surfing makes you a better player. One moment you're perfectly calm waiting for a wave, and the next you're firing up and dropping in, just like when you're on the tee box getting ready to hit a shot. If you don't surf, try swimming. It works.

Use Strategy, Not Emotion

I was an aggressive golfer, but I always knew the stakes. I got a feel for it during the gambling games I got into while training to be a professional under Charlie Earp at Royal Queensland. I was only 20 at the time, and Charlie was paying me $32 a week, so gambling was a necessary second income. I played against a lot of members. During one match, my partner, Cyril King, and I went down $800 after 16 holes. I didn't have $8 to my name, let alone $800, but I knew No. 17 was a par 5 and 18 was a tough par 4 -- a huge advantage for Cyril and me against our older opponents. We went double or nothing, and actually took home money after I finished eagle-birdie. Had 17 been a short par 3 and 18 a manageable par 4? Who knows if we would have doubled-down? But our decision was strategy-based, not an emotional one. Aggressive for sure, but also smart.

Find Your Happy Place

In 1986 I became the first player to win $1 million in a season. Some of the guys thought it was crazy money, but now you get $1 million for winning the Shriners [the Las Vegas Tour event]. So "crazy" is relative, but the Tour has set things up to let even halfway decent players make a comfy living. That was never my style. I saw endorsements, branding and business opportunities as the real trophies, and you can only get them when you're at the very top. The downside to becoming a brand is that everything I say or do gets scrutinized, and it can either hurt or help your business. So I watch my step and watch what I say. It's tough, but I wouldn't change it for the world. That's why I love being here [in Colorado]. I can do the things I like most and, well, disappear.

Broaden Your Horizons

I played professionally for seven years before taking my game to the U.S. I was anxious to play on the PGA Tour, but I felt I needed a world view before I could become dominant. So after playing in Australia, I toured in Asia and then Europe. You learn a lot when you're outside the Western world, the most important thing being how different people perceive you based on their culture, religion and ethics. It's a huge influence on the way I am today. The experience was a force that allowed me to succeed in America. It was a long road, so I consider my win at the 1984 Kemper Open as one of the highlights of my career. I had seen the world, won everywhere I went, and now I was doing it in the States. It was the moment I had officially arrived.

Be Open to New Ideas (Even If They're Not Yours)

The abyss of my professional career was my run-in with PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem over the World Tour, my idea for an international series of tournaments. It was a beautiful plan and good for golf. I had the support of numerous marquee players, a lucrative TV contract in place, and most important, I had structured it so that the players owned it. I've always believed that if you help build equity in something, you should receive some of the spoils. Unfortunately, Finchem and the media ripped me to shreds. They said I was trying to ruin the game. It got so bad that a lot of PGA club pros who carried Greg Norman Collection [clothes] began canceling their contracts. I was devastated, but I was so sure of the World Tour's promise that I called each one of them to explain my side of the story, because I was never offered the chance to do so with the PGA Tour. It took weeks. I asked each one to hear me out and draw his own conclusions. Everyone kept their contract. My tour never got off the ground, yet three years later the PGA Tour launched the World Golf Championships. I guess they didn't like the fact that it wasn't their idea.

It's poor policy to slay the dreamer just because he or she came up with a better plan. It's so against how I do things. If you came to me with something great that I had never thought of, I'd say, "Are you okay, or do you want help? Should we joint-venture?" If the answer is "no," I'm still going to support you, because your idea is fantastic. It didn't happen that way with Finchem and, honestly, it's one of the reasons I don't do certain things in golf anymore. I haven't played in a PGA-sanctioned event in 18 months. I don't see a reason to support an entity that tried to destroy my dream.

Find a Family Bond

Fostering common interests makes everything easier. Our family likes to do the same things, and I think that's what keeps us strong. We're big scuba people. My daughter, Morgan, is a master diver. We've been all over the world, and having that time with my kids has been huge. You can't sit around the house and do nothing. And it's not just with your children. My wife, Kiki [Kirsten], loves coming to the ranch as much as I do. Our shared interests make us closer.

A caveat: Let your kids find themselves in sport. You can't smother them like I see a lot of parents do. It's okay to be there on the periphery, but kids should develop on their own. They'll resent you if you play too heavy a hand.

Seize the Day

I've recently launched the Great White Shark Opportunity Fund, an asset-based financing company that helps small businesses. I never imagined doing such a thing, but with some of the things going on economically throughout the world, we saw an opportunity. I could have left it alone, but opportunity may not always be there. You have to at least consider ideas when they come across your desk. At the very least, consider the potential.

My first coach, Charlie Earp, had a phrase: "DIN & DIP." It means "Do It Now and Do It Properly," and it's the best piece of advice that's ever been lent to me or that I've passed along. If you have a task, commit to it, get it done, and then move on to the next challenge.

Think Vertically

My goal is to grow my brand on a global basis. I'm a fan of what Ralph Lauren has done with Polo and the horse logo. He built a brand, then pushed it in every direction. Lauren thinks vertically, and that's what I'm trying to do.

My course-design business holds the key. When someone comes to me with millions or even tens of millions of dollars to design a course as part of a real-estate development or resort, I know I can leverage it by, say, stocking the cellars with my wine, the pro shop with Greg Norman Collection clothing, the kitchen with my Greg Norman Australian Prime steaks. They're already investing in the value of my brand, so why not add some scale to it? I think it's a great model, and with 70 designs under my belt, so far so good.

Leave the Right Legacy

I'd like to see my logo live on in perpetuity after my death. That's the greatest compliment you can have. But my real legacy? It's my kids and my family. They're what's important. What I do outside of them—stuff that I enjoy -- is for me.

Be Happy for Others

I know how hard it is to be successful, so I get elated when others experience it. Like when Adam Scott won the Masters. I was so happy for him that I cried. It comes down to, don't be the jealous guy. Remember, things will outlast you. We're only here for a certain amount of time, so it's important to make decisions that are good for everyone around you, not just you.

Be a Mentor

If somebody asks me for help, I'm going to help them. Years ago back in Australia, Adam Scott came to me with a lot of great questions. Deep questions, like, "What's it like when you get to 40?" I don't lock my door to anybody. And now Adam's off and running, but we still stay in contact. When he won at Augusta National, it felt like I had won! Helping someone achieve their own success is just about the most rewarding thing you can do.

Commit to Golf and Life

Golf teaches you about who you are -- how you deal with failure, how you deal with success, how you deal with humility, how you deal with the public. Most people fail in at least a few areas, so you've got to work at it. I certainly had to. If you truly want to succeed at golf, business, life -- any endeavor -- you have to fully commit to it. It's not enough to only want it. The competition is too heavy. And if you're lucky enough to reach the top of whatever you do, then you actually have to work harder, because everyone underneath is gunning for you. Unfortunately, there's no quit.

Brought to you by Synergy Golf Solutions

[4seasonscountryclub]

Greg Norman: All I Know About Winning in Golf, Business and Life

The trek to Greg Norman's getaway in northwest Colorado is a roundabout one. The retreat is tucked away in a remote, evergreen-covered corner of this rugged state, an area so isolated that GPS is little help. An unmarked dirt road runs from the highway to his front door, uncoiling like the rattlesnakes that lurk in the brush. Driving for some 30 minutes, you feel lost. Definitely lost. Then his Rocky Mountain Xanadu appears: a 14,000-square-foot "cabin," two miles of fly-fishing nirvana, and wildlife at every turn. Norman's ranch is as beautiful and seemingly as vast as the snowcapped Rockies that encircle it. It's difficult to fathom how he parlayed "only" 20 PGA Tour wins into this.

Of course, the Shark was chasing much more than just trophies. Like Arnold Palmer before him, Greg Norman oozed charisma, both on and off the course. He bestrode fairways with a swashbuckling, take-no-prisoners (and look good doing it) style that made everyone notice. Prize money? That was chump change. Norman saw a worldwide brand as the ultimate reward, and he has gone on to amass a fortune that has been estimated at $400 million. Sure, there were bumps along the road. Take the well-publicized divorce from his first wife in 2006 that halved his assets (au revoir, $103 million); the heartbreaking near misses in eight majors; his clash with the PGA Tour over his World Tour brainchild, which he calls the low point of his career. But you don't become an icon by surrendering to adversity. "Failure makes you stronger," says Norman, 58, now three years into his third marriage (with interior designer Kirsten Kutner, 45). How strong? Great White Shark Enterprises operates 16 profitable ventures in areas ranging from real-estate development to turf research to prime beef sales. Like his ravenous namesake, the Great White Shark is far from satisfied. He's got big plans. Welcome to the success secrets of a man in full -- the guiding thoughts that helped a kid from Mount Isa, Australia, ascend from a $32-a-week job in a pro shop to the pinnacle of the golf world, and build his brand into a booming international business.

Do Your Homework

I became a good businessman because I was a good golfer. Golf taught me how to practice, formulate a strategy and then execute it -- a due-diligence process that also fuels good business decisions. Some people are naturals at business. I'm not, but I had a great education through golf.

Patience Is Underrated

I signed my first contract with Reebok in 1989. Paul Fireman, Reebok's CEO, had a dream for me, but eventually structured the deal so I could function as my own brand. That was huge. The more independent you can be in life, the better. But since I didn't have a lot of marketing or branding knowledge at the time, I was patient. I didn't go for the quick buck. I focused only on how big it could become. I'm lucky in that I have pretty good long-term vision. Why do I have it? I don't know. But here we are decades later -- and I've only reached 20 percent of what this company is capable of achieving.

I was a different person on the course. I wasn't as patient, because I didn't have to be. I knew everything about the game and was super-confident in my abilities. I played by the sword and died by it. Would I have changed some things about my game knowing what success in business has taught me? It's something that I'd consider. But don't get me wrong -- I have zero regrets.

Winning Is About Heart

A lot of people ask how I'd stack up against today's players if I had use of modern equipment. Listen, it's not about the gear. Winning is about what's in your heart and in your head. Equipment dictates how to play the game in an era, but the physical and mental skills are the same. And I had them. I never feared anything or anyone on the course, and I wasn't afraid to fail. So I think I'd do pretty well against Snead, Hogan, Tiger and Phil -- whoever. Tiger's a tough guy, but I was a tough guy on the course, too. I probably would have beat him.

Never Blame Your Tools

The best are always going to be the best, no matter what you chuck in their bag. Send five guys out on Augusta National with hickory-shafted clubs and gutta-percha balls, and the guy with the most talent will always win. Technology allows you to extract certain things from your equipment, but how you extract it is dependent upon your ability to swing the club. Science can only take you so far.

The Secret's in the Shaft

When I was young I read a lot of articles by Ben Hogan. He wrote pages on the stiffness and torque he used in his shafts. I remember thinking, Sh-t! I need to figure this out. I spent a lot of time trying different shafts and, when I found a good match, making sure the spine was set in the same place on every club. I got it right, so I can't figure out why today's pros can't do likewise. Take Rory [McIlory]. It's absurd to say he has gear issues. It's so easy to re-create the same specs and feel from one set to the next. Something else is going on [with him].

Play Within Your Limits

The biggest difference between weekend players and pros? Let's say we're both 100 yards from the pin -- a sand wedge for me and a gap wedge for you. I'll use my pitching wedge and swing at 70 percent. You'll hit your gap wedge at 100 percent. And you'll lose. Weekend players go for broke while pros look for a way to play the minimum.

Play with Precision

When I was playing my best, my caddie, Bruce Edwards, would give me half yardages -- as in, "Greg, you've got 147 and a half yards to the pin." Sounds extreme, but a half-yard is 18 inches, which often means the difference between "good chance" and "no chance" on the ensuing putt. Spend time getting to know your distances and how to be precise with them on the fly. You may not realize it, but the distance you hit the ball changes with the atmosphere. Those humid early-morning rounds? You're going to lose yards. Similarly, the ball will jump when it's hot or dry. Guys can drive it 300 yards today without blinking an eye, but it's still a precision game.

Keep Your Swing Simple

There are a lot of moving parts in the swing, but you can't worry about each and every one. Charlie Earp, my first coach, taught me to always keep the triangle formed by my shoulders and grip in front of my body, from start to finish. If you maintain the triangle as you rotate, everything else falls into place. I've used this tip for 35 years. Hold the triangle, get the club parallel at the top, then let 'er rip (see sequence, below).

Listen to Your Body

The last time you saw me on TV was probably during the 2008 British Open at Royal Birkdale, where I had the 54-hole lead before finishing third. That wasn't the swing you saw in the 1980s and '90s. My stance is wider now, and I stop my backswing short of parallel. I have to. My body can't take the stress of rotating anymore.

I used to be super-flexible -- I could even do splits. It was the source of my power, but it allowed me to overrotate. I developed so many stress fractures in my spine that I ended up needing surgery. Butch Harmon was the one to get me to widen my stance, which automatically limits rotation. I fought him at first, but then listened to what Mother Nature was telling me. And I darn near won that Open.

Golf places severe pressure on your joints, so you either have to take excellent care of your body or find a swing that isn't so taxing. We get older and more frail. That's life.

Find a Confidence Boost

Success breeds success. I started playing golf at age 16, and by the time I was 21 I was competing in professional events. I knew I was good, but I didn't know how good until the 1976 West Lakes Classic, an Australian Tour event held at the Grange G.C. in Adelaide. I was a complete nobody, and the field had Bruce Devlin, Bruce Crampton, David Graham, and a couple of guys from the PGA Tour. By the end of the third round I had a 10-shot lead. That was it for me. I knew right then and there that I could be great. Everyone needs a shot of confidence, and my victory at the Grange -- the first of 89 pro wins -- was it.

Build a Swing Foundation

I went from novice to scratch in two years. I was lucky in that the things I liked to do before I got into golf, mainly surfing, established foundations for my game. Surfing develops your core, lat muscles and shoulders -- the engines of your swing. Plus it gives you balance. When you're riding a wave your proprioceptors [sensory receptors that detect body position] are firing on all cylinders -- you learn balance very quickly. I've talked about how surfing helps your swing with [pro surfer] Kelly Slater. Kelly loves golf, and we agree that surfing makes you a better player. One moment you're perfectly calm waiting for a wave, and the next you're firing up and dropping in, just like when you're on the tee box getting ready to hit a shot. If you don't surf, try swimming. It works.

Use Strategy, Not Emotion

I was an aggressive golfer, but I always knew the stakes. I got a feel for it during the gambling games I got into while training to be a professional under Charlie Earp at Royal Queensland. I was only 20 at the time, and Charlie was paying me $32 a week, so gambling was a necessary second income. I played against a lot of members. During one match, my partner, Cyril King, and I went down $800 after 16 holes. I didn't have $8 to my name, let alone $800, but I knew No. 17 was a par 5 and 18 was a tough par 4 -- a huge advantage for Cyril and me against our older opponents. We went double or nothing, and actually took home money after I finished eagle-birdie. Had 17 been a short par 3 and 18 a manageable par 4? Who knows if we would have doubled-down? But our decision was strategy-based, not an emotional one. Aggressive for sure, but also smart.

Find Your Happy Place

In 1986 I became the first player to win $1 million in a season. Some of the guys thought it was crazy money, but now you get $1 million for winning the Shriners [the Las Vegas Tour event]. So "crazy" is relative, but the Tour has set things up to let even halfway decent players make a comfy living. That was never my style. I saw endorsements, branding and business opportunities as the real trophies, and you can only get them when you're at the very top. The downside to becoming a brand is that everything I say or do gets scrutinized, and it can either hurt or help your business. So I watch my step and watch what I say. It's tough, but I wouldn't change it for the world. That's why I love being here [in Colorado]. I can do the things I like most and, well, disappear.

Broaden Your Horizons

I played professionally for seven years before taking my game to the U.S. I was anxious to play on the PGA Tour, but I felt I needed a world view before I could become dominant. So after playing in Australia, I toured in Asia and then Europe. You learn a lot when you're outside the Western world, the most important thing being how different people perceive you based on their culture, religion and ethics. It's a huge influence on the way I am today. The experience was a force that allowed me to succeed in America. It was a long road, so I consider my win at the 1984 Kemper Open as one of the highlights of my career. I had seen the world, won everywhere I went, and now I was doing it in the States. It was the moment I had officially arrived.

Be Open to New Ideas (Even If They're Not Yours)

The abyss of my professional career was my run-in with PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem over the World Tour, my idea for an international series of tournaments. It was a beautiful plan and good for golf. I had the support of numerous marquee players, a lucrative TV contract in place, and most important, I had structured it so that the players owned it. I've always believed that if you help build equity in something, you should receive some of the spoils. Unfortunately, Finchem and the media ripped me to shreds. They said I was trying to ruin the game. It got so bad that a lot of PGA club pros who carried Greg Norman Collection [clothes] began canceling their contracts. I was devastated, but I was so sure of the World Tour's promise that I called each one of them to explain my side of the story, because I was never offered the chance to do so with the PGA Tour. It took weeks. I asked each one to hear me out and draw his own conclusions. Everyone kept their contract. My tour never got off the ground, yet three years later the PGA Tour launched the World Golf Championships. I guess they didn't like the fact that it wasn't their idea.

It's poor policy to slay the dreamer just because he or she came up with a better plan. It's so against how I do things. If you came to me with something great that I had never thought of, I'd say, "Are you okay, or do you want help? Should we joint-venture?" If the answer is "no," I'm still going to support you, because your idea is fantastic. It didn't happen that way with Finchem and, honestly, it's one of the reasons I don't do certain things in golf anymore. I haven't played in a PGA-sanctioned event in 18 months. I don't see a reason to support an entity that tried to destroy my dream.

Find a Family Bond

Fostering common interests makes everything easier. Our family likes to do the same things, and I think that's what keeps us strong. We're big scuba people. My daughter, Morgan, is a master diver. We've been all over the world, and having that time with my kids has been huge. You can't sit around the house and do nothing. And it's not just with your children. My wife, Kiki [Kirsten], loves coming to the ranch as much as I do. Our shared interests make us closer.

A caveat: Let your kids find themselves in sport. You can't smother them like I see a lot of parents do. It's okay to be there on the periphery, but kids should develop on their own. They'll resent you if you play too heavy a hand.

Seize the Day

I've recently launched the Great White Shark Opportunity Fund, an asset-based financing company that helps small businesses. I never imagined doing such a thing, but with some of the things going on economically throughout the world, we saw an opportunity. I could have left it alone, but opportunity may not always be there. You have to at least consider ideas when they come across your desk. At the very least, consider the potential.

My first coach, Charlie Earp, had a phrase: "DIN & DIP." It means "Do It Now and Do It Properly," and it's the best piece of advice that's ever been lent to me or that I've passed along. If you have a task, commit to it, get it done, and then move on to the next challenge.

Think Vertically

My goal is to grow my brand on a global basis. I'm a fan of what Ralph Lauren has done with Polo and the horse logo. He built a brand, then pushed it in every direction. Lauren thinks vertically, and that's what I'm trying to do.

My course-design business holds the key. When someone comes to me with millions or even tens of millions of dollars to design a course as part of a real-estate development or resort, I know I can leverage it by, say, stocking the cellars with my wine, the pro shop with Greg Norman Collection clothing, the kitchen with my Greg Norman Australian Prime steaks. They're already investing in the value of my brand, so why not add some scale to it? I think it's a great model, and with 70 designs under my belt, so far so good.

Leave the Right Legacy

I'd like to see my logo live on in perpetuity after my death. That's the greatest compliment you can have. But my real legacy? It's my kids and my family. They're what's important. What I do outside of them—stuff that I enjoy -- is for me.

Be Happy for Others

I know how hard it is to be successful, so I get elated when others experience it. Like when Adam Scott won the Masters. I was so happy for him that I cried. It comes down to, don't be the jealous guy. Remember, things will outlast you. We're only here for a certain amount of time, so it's important to make decisions that are good for everyone around you, not just you.

Be a Mentor

If somebody asks me for help, I'm going to help them. Years ago back in Australia, Adam Scott came to me with a lot of great questions. Deep questions, like, "What's it like when you get to 40?" I don't lock my door to anybody. And now Adam's off and running, but we still stay in contact. When he won at Augusta National, it felt like I had won! Helping someone achieve their own success is just about the most rewarding thing you can do.

Commit to Golf and Life

Golf teaches you about who you are -- how you deal with failure, how you deal with success, how you deal with humility, how you deal with the public. Most people fail in at least a few areas, so you've got to work at it. I certainly had to. If you truly want to succeed at golf, business, life -- any endeavor -- you have to fully commit to it. It's not enough to only want it. The competition is too heavy. And if you're lucky enough to reach the top of whatever you do, then you actually have to work harder, because everyone underneath is gunning for you. Unfortunately, there's no quit.

Brought to you by4 seasons Country Club

[jodyedgarus]

Pennsylvania Is A Battleground State … In Football

Pennsylvanians went into the 2018 season believing that it might be a banner year for the state’s NFL teams. The Philadelphia Eagles were league champs the season before, and the Pittsburgh Steelers had harbored their own championship aspirations before an upset playoff loss against Jacksonville. Although we’ve never seen a Steelers-Eagles Super Bowl, we’ve come close a few times this century — both teams made the conference championship in 2008-09 (Eagles lost), 2004-05 (Steelers lost) and 2001-02 (both lost). There was reason to think 2018 might bring another chance for a clash between Eastern and Western PA on the game’s biggest stage.

Fourteen weeks later, that’s not looking so hot. The Steelers started strong despite a contract impasse with star running back Le’Veon Bell, but they’ve faltered recently in a three-game losing streak and now are in danger of missing the playoffs. And Pittsburgh is this year’s Pennsylvania success story. The defending-champion Eagles continue to suffer from one of history’s worst Super Bowl hangovers and are down to an 18 percent playoff probability after Sunday’s crushing loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

In the midst of all of that turmoil, though, Pennsylvania will be at the center of the football universe for Week 15 of the NFL season. According to our combination of matchup quality (i.e., the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings in each game) and game importance (how likely it is to swing every team’s odds of making the playoffs),1 the Steelers’ game against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon is the best of the week, while Philly’s Sunday-night clash against the Rams is tied for second-best:

The best matchups of Week 15

Week 15 games by the highest average Elo rating (using the harmonic mean) plus the total potential swing for all NFL teams’ playoff chances based on the result, according to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL predictions

Playoff % Playoff % Team A Current Avg. Chg* Team B Current Avg. Chg* Total Change Game Quality PIT 62.3% +/-23.1 NE 99.3% +/-0.7 47.1 1617 PHI 17.6 14.7 LAR 100.0 0.0 30.8 1604 MIN 56.8 17.9 MIA 20.2 11.3 58.4 1491 CAR 8.9 9.4 NO 100.0 0.0 20.3 1605 IND 27.2 12.3 DAL 99.2 0.9 26.5 1546 BAL 54.6 15.1 TB 0.8 1.1 32.8 1508 TEN 34.5 19.1 NYG 0.5 0.5 40.8 1485 LAC 99.7 0.2 KC 100.0 0.0 4.0 1656 GB 3.2 4.2 CHI 99.9 0.2 10.0 1527 HOU 96.1 4.9 NYJ 0.0 0.0 12.7 1440 WSH 10.5 8.6 JAX 0.0 0.0 19.8 1429 DEN 5.1 3.2 CLE 0.5 0.7 9.0 1445 DET 3.5 3.3 BUF 0.0 0.0 10.1 1431 SEA 99.3 1.1 SF 0.0 0.0 3.3 1481 ATL 0.1 0.0 ARI 0.0 0.0 1.5 1409 CIN 0.4 0.3 OAK 0.0 0.0 2.4 1370

Game quality is the harmonic mean of the Elo ratings for the two teams in a given matchup. Total Change adds up the potential swing in playoff odds for every team in the league (not just the two teams listed).

*Average change is weighted by the likelihood of a win or loss. (Ties are excluded.)

Source: ESPN.com

Despite their mind-blowing last-second loss to the Miami Dolphins — and their generally less-impressive-than-usual season — the Patriots don’t have a huge amount riding on their matchup with Pittsburgh. (Win or lose, our model gives them at least a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs.) But the game does have major implications for the Steelers’ postseason future. Right now, Pittsburgh is one of five AFC teams with between a 20 percent and 65 percent playoff probability, according to our model. If the Steelers win, their number goes from 62 percent to 85 percent; if they lose, it drops to 38 percent.

Gone are the questions about whether the Steelers could maintain their offensive output without Bell. With James Conner carrying the load at RB instead, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks roughly the same in expected points added per game (fifth) as it did a year ago (third) and has improved from 21st to 11th in EPA on the ground. Even without Conner against the Raiders — and with backups Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley combining for just 32 yards on 16 carries — Pittsburgh’s offense exceeded its usual weekly EPA average (although most teams do that against the Raiders). The real issue has been on defense, where the team ranks fourth-to-last in EPA over the past three weeks, including dead last against the pass. When Derek Carr is shredding your D for a 122.4 passer rating, there are some problems that must be addressed by Mike Tomlin and staff.

And Steelers-Patriots has ripple effects that stretch far beyond just Pittsburgh’s chances. The Baltimore Ravens’ odds will go up or down by 13 percentage points depending on who wins in Pittsburgh; Tennessee and Indianapolis will also see their odds shift by multiple percentage points based on the outcome. Three other teams — Miami, Denver and Houston — will get changes of about 1 percentage point apiece. All told, about 47 points of playoff probability will move around on the basis of New England and Pittsburgh’s contest.

For the Eagles, their playoff chances all but evaporated after falling to Dallas. While they were able to beat Washington (which is now also sitting at 6-7, two games back of the Cowboys, and now auditioning quarterbacks who walk in off the street) two weeks ago in the most important game of Week 13, Philly was unable to replicate that feat in overtime Sunday, losing the most crucial matchup of Week 14. There are still scenarios left whereby the Eagles can make the playoffs, most of which involve them winning out — while facing winning teams in the Rams and Texans over their three remaining games — and the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers losing games down the stretch. But Philadelphia has dug a deep hole for itself with three weeks to go.

As we noted in late October, Carson Wentz and the Eagles’ offense were above average throwing the ball, but that wasn’t enough to offset a suspect running game and a disappointing defense. Since then, Wentz has basically held steady, but the rushing attack has gotten even worse, and the defense has done nothing to turn its season around. After weeks of waiting for the real Eagles to show up and play like champions, it’s probably time to admit that these are the real Eagles — and their hopes of repeating are slim.

A win over L.A. would drag Philadelphia’s playoff chances up to 42 percent, so there is plenty on the line for at least one of the two teams involved Sunday. But with the Rams having locked up their division earlier this month, the game’s second-biggest stakes belong to the Vikings, who would lose 14 points of playoff probability with an Eagles win and gain 6 points if Philly loses. In addition, Washington, Seattle, Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay and Carolina will see at least 1 point of movement to their postseason odds depending on whether the Eagles win or lose.

But most of all, it should be a good game. For all their mediocrity this year, the Eagles are still probably better than their 6-7 record, while the Rams are locked in a fight for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have something to prove offensively after a weak Sunday-night showing against the Bears in Chicago. The Steelers and Patriots are in similar positions — both teams rank among the best in the AFC yet have a lot of questions to answer. Add it up, and the state of Pennsylvania figures to be a key battleground in the playoff ace, even if its teams aren’t exactly as intimidating as they seemed three months ago.

FiveThirtyEight vs. the readers

Want more playoff probabilities? Check out FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings in our NFL prediction interactive, which simulates the rest of the season 100,000 times and tracks every team’s odds. You can also pick against the Elo algorithm in our prediction game. Try your hand and attempt to climb up our giant leaderboard.

Based on data from the prediction contest, here are the matchups in which Elo made its best — and worst — picks against the field of readers last week:

Elo’s dumbest (and smartest) picks of Week 14

Average difference between points won by readers and by Elo in Week 14 matchups in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction game

OUR PREDICTION (ELO) READERS’ PREDICTION PICK WIN PROB. PICK WIN PROB. Result READERS’ NET PTS WSH 69% NYG 51% NYG 40, WSH 16 +21.1

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BUF 70 BUF 63 NYJ 27, BUF 23 +7.6

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CAR 62 CAR 56 CLE 26, CAR 20 +4.8

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ARI 51 DET 55 DET 17, ARI 3 +4.6

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NO 74 NO 79 NO 28, TB 14 +1.0

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GB 53 GB 55 GB 34, ATL 20 -0.1

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HOU 68 HOU 67 IND 24, HOU 21 -0.4

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LAC 84 LAC 85 LAC 26, CIN 21 -1.0

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KC 71 KC 72 KC 27, BAL 24 -1.1

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DAL 59 DAL 58 DAL 29, PHI 23 -3.3

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TEN 66 TEN 63 TEN 30, JAX 9 -4.0

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SEA 62 SEA 60 SEA 21, MIN 7 -4.2

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PIT 78 PIT 81 OAK 24, PIT 21 -6.9

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NE 72 NE 75 MIA 34, NE 33 -7.0

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LAR 56 LAR 62 CHI 15, LAR 6 -8.9

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DEN 63 DEN 68 SF 20, DEN 14 -9.0

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Home teams are in bold.

The scoring system is nonlinear, so readers’ average points don’t necessarily match the number of points that would be given to the average reader prediction.

Elo beat the typical reader again in Week 14, but it was very close: On average, our predictions won the week by only 6.8 points. Relative to readers, Elo was rightly bearish on the Rams and Broncos, but the readers did get a huge victory over the model in the Giants’ 40-16 blowout of Washington. Knowing that the ‘Skins were down to Mark Sanchez at QB (who was later replaced by Josh “No, not that Josh Johnson” Johnson), readers preyed on Elo’s ignorance and picked Eli Manning and company to win. Although it wasn’t enough to win the week, it was the most lopsided single-game victory of the season by either readers over the computer or vice-versa.

Anyway, congrats to Vyascheslav Tolbert (Mike Tolbert’s Russian cousin?), who led all users in Week 14 with 129.5 points, and to Greg Chili Van Hollebeke, who maintained his No. 1 ranking for the season with 963.4 points. Thanks to everyone who has been playing — and if you haven’t, get in on the action before it’s too late! You can make picks now and still try your luck against Elo, even if you haven’t played yet.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-is-a-battleground-state-in-football/