#ghg ideas

[angry-glasses]

Tang Erda -> Homura

Su Yang -> Madoka

Evil God -> Kyubey

anyway ghg pmmm au.

[pepperpixel]

More powerpunk girls art!!!! Cuz they are just. Fun to draw ghgh- this time trying to get a better design for brat! Cuz even tho I liked the old one I had.. I wanted to try and give her a lil bit more edge… so! Here were some experiments w that! I didn’t succeed in. Solidifying anything, as u can probably notice. Considering her outfit is slightly different in every picture ghgh- but! Idk! Maybe that’s ok lol. She’s the sorta character who would have a bunch of different outfits it’s fine lol

[redrandomposts]

living rent free in my mind: bai liu and spades (xie ta/tawil)

prompts and aus ig

random au:

after multiple disappearances, the forest by bai liu's small town was completely closed off. fences surrounded it and everyone was warned not to go in.

bai liu would comply on most days—it *is* illegal to trespass, and lu yizhan had instilled in him not to even think of it—if it weren't for the fact the red paper charm lu yizhan had given him was carried past the fence by the wind.

a stroke of unluckiness. typical. bai liu put the notebook under the bench, picked up the popsicle sticks and ran after the charm. and, perhaps immoral things were what he was born to do, because he had not a second thought before jumping the fence to grab it.

on the other side of the fence, it was as if the sun had deigned the forest unworthy of light. the leaves and branches blocked all but a bit of sun, and as dusk approached the remaining light was dyed red. With one hand Bai Liu held the popsicle sticks, and with the other he picked up the paper charm.

"...can I have a popsicle stick?" from behind the tree, a small...creature poked its head out and gazed at bai liu.

serial killer au: (cw: graphic(?) descriptions of violence: blood, gore, etc)

Hanging from the ceiling, eyes wide open as if facing an indescribable terror. Their spine, red with blood and speckled with flesh, wrapped around them like a snake. Duct tape crudely held together the bones, tibias and femurs used to hold them as they dangled. Though long dead, blood smeared on their skin to give it a flesh tone as if they were alive. Carved into their skin, some scabbed over and some not, were spades. Blood still dripped from the cold corpse, landing into a metal basin under them. At one point, the drips had made a metallic ring in the room and were numerous. Now, it’s as if a small drop of water landed in a lake.

this was the impression bai liu had gotten when he looked at the photographs.

lu yizhan had been tasked with a case. as usual, he asked bai liu to help him, went over to his home, and laid all the photos out. "too confidential to talk about in public... i dont want feng dian to see these photos," is what he had explained to bai liu.

"...this is the spades' case," bai liu said. an up-and-coming serial killer, having killed half a dozen people in a fortnight. the news loved him for the revenue he pulled in, and the police hated him because he left no trace at the scenes of the crimes.

"yes."

"lu yizhan, the news reported that the last officer to work on this case became another victim."

"...yes."

"lu yizhan. what are you doing with this case?"

"dont worry, bai liu. the faster it's solved, the less risk i'll be in."

asshole, bai liu thought as he looked at the photographs. now he was forced to do the job until the killer was actually jailed or executed.

"the news didnt mention the bones," bai liu said. in fact, the only thing the news mentioned were markings of spades left on the victims.

"we have to keep a lot of things confidential. its a violent serial killer." lu yizhan pushed the photographs forward just a bit more. "what's the motive?"

bai liu looked at the photographs, tracing over a few things he found interesting. "near the top of the wound where the spine was taken out, it's wider. this could be where it was first pulled out, or it could be for something else. the killer could have reached in and pulled out the heart at this height."

"the killer looks to be harvesting blood. the heart is a necessary organ to help blood pump throughout the body."

lu yizhan looked up at bai liu to get a hint of the thoughts that were running through his mind. chills ran down his spine. the eyes held a sparkle that was previously unseen, lips slightly turned upward. lu yizhan... wanted to take the photographs and forbid him to do anything else.

"lu yizhan, what do you think the motive is? the killer seems to be harvesting blood from the victims long-term. there are pinholes in the flesh, and some of the scars are scabbed over. the bones look as if they were taken out professionally, and the corpse was tied up in a show of display rather than being left alone. the heart was taken, too." as he spoke, bai liu pointed out everything on the photographs. his eyes flicked up to lu yizhan. "showing off what they are skilled at, taking things, and making the intentions clear by taking the heart and carving a motif. isn't the killer displaying love?"

vampire au:

bai liu had a boring life. this became especially clear when lu yizhan started living an interesting one, where he'd leave in the dead of night. he'd gain injuries and money each excursion and insist bai liu carry garlic and a cross with him.

one: bai liu was not religious. two: bai liu disdained the strong smell of garlic. thus, bai liu ignored lu yizhan's "advice" and continued life as normal- a poor college student with a part-time job as a horror game designer and developer.

when bai liu was ambushed in the dead of night, fangs deep in his neck and kidnapped, he could only think of the strange behavior lu yizhan emitted. lu yizhan was a vampire hunter most likely. and, apparently, western vampires were rampant in china. as a chinese person, he did not make the connection of religion and garlic to vampires.

if bai liu went back in time... he would ignore lu yizhan's advice again.

after being kidnapped, he was brought to an extravagant mansion that was more expensive than anything the private school students had combined. bai liu was fed food and treated as the co-owner, or even master of the mansion. the vampire that took him had godly visuals and was as wealthy as the nation, and as payment for the blood the vampire drank the wealth also belonged to bai liu.

...after a month of going missing, bai liu returned to the dorm. lu yizhan looked terrible, as if his blood was sucked dry. (turns out, if you go missing for a month, your best friend will spend more time looking for you than anything else. those eyebags were terrible.)

im thinking of continuing these, if i (or anyone, really) had ideas of how to continue it.

random-au notes: spades is a real, physical being, not a spirit-ghost thing. this isn't a rewrite of canon, either. could be no-game au. it probably will end happily, or at least semi-happily.

serial killer-au notes: it can be spades behind the killings...or bai six fucking everyone over for entertainment. it can be a canon divergent au, where spades was able to go to reality early, or it can be a no-game au.

vampire-au notes: no-game, if i continue ill definitely flesh it out more...

overall: in these stories, bai liu will be moral grey. in the serial-killer and vampire au, he'd probably manipulate spades subtly to get what he wants (ie, hint at someone who wronged him or mention something about "love"). did you notice that in these prompts bai liu was some ordinary guy that got tangled up in messes? well, its similar to canon, he's not actually an ordinary guy.

[love-birds-stuff]

Hadestown can be something so personal

[vimbry]

FUNNY NUMBER

[acti-veg]

Leather vs. Pleather: 8 Myths Debunked

Since we are all beyond tired of seeing the same regurgitated leather posts every day, I've compiled and briefly debunked some of the most common myths peddled about leather and pleather… So hopefully we can all move on to talk about literally anything else.

1) Leather is not sustainable.

Approximately 85% of all leather (almost all leather you'll find in stores) is tanned using chromium. During the chrome tanning process, 40% of unused chromium salts are discharged in the final effluents, which makes it's way into waterways and poses a serious threat to wildlife and humans. There are also significant GHG emissions from the sheer amount of energy required to produce and tan leather.

Before we even get the cow's hide, you first need to get them to slaughter weight, which is a hugely resource-intensive process. Livestock accounts for 80% of all agricultural land use, and grazing land for cattle likely represents the majority of that figure. To produce 1 pound of beef (and the subsequent hide), 6-8 pounds of feed are required. An estimated 86% of the grain used to feed cattle is unfit for human consumption, but 14% alone represents enough food to feed millions of people. On top of that, one-third of the global water footprint of animal production is related to cattle alone. The leather industry uses greenwashing to promote leather as an eco-friendly material. Leather is often marketed as an eco-friendly product, for example, fashion brands often use the Leather Working Group (LWG) certificate to present their leather as sustainable. However, this certification (rather conveniently) does not include farm-level impacts, which constitute the majority of the negative environmental harm caused by leather.

2) Leather is not just a byproduct.

Some cows are raised speciifically for leather, but this a minority and usually represents the most expensive forms of leather. This does not mean that leather is just a waste product of beef and dairy, or that it is a completely incidental byproduct; it is more accurate to call leather a tertiary product of the beef and dairy industries. Hides used to fetch up to 50% of the total value of the carcass, this has dropped significantly since COVID-19 to only about 5-10%, but this is recovering, and still represents a significant profit margin. Globally, leather accounts for up to 26% of major slaughterhouses’ earnings. Leather is inextricably linked to the production of beef and dairy, and buying leather helps make the breeding, exploitation and slaughter of cows and steers a profitable enterprise.

3) Leather is not as biodegradable as you think.

Natural animal hides are biodegradable, and this is often the misleading way leather that sellers word it. "Cow hide is fully biodegradable" is absolutely true, it just purposely leaves out the fact that the tanning process means that the hide means that leather takes between 25 and 40 years to break down. Even the much-touted (despite it being a tiny portion of the market) vegetable-tanned leather is not readily biodegradable. Since leather is not recyclable either, most ends up incinerated, or at landfill. The end-of-life cycle and how it relates to sustainability is often massively overstated by leather sellers, when in fact, it is in the production process that most of the damage is done.

4) Leather is not humane.

The idea that leather represents some sort of morally neutral alternative to the evils of plastic is frankly laughable, at least to anyone who has done even a little bit of research into this exploitative and incredibly harmful industry. Cows, when properly cared for, can live more than fifteen years. However, most cows are usually slaughtered somewhere around 2-3 years old, and the softest leather, most luxurious leather comes from the hide of cows who are less than a year old. Some cows are not even born before they become victim to the industry. Estimates vary, but according to an EFSA report, on average 3% of dairy cows and 1.5 % of beef cattle, are in their third-trimester of pregnancy when they are slaughtered.

Slaughter procedures vary slightly by country, but a captive bolt pistol shot to the head followed by having their throats slit, while still alive, is standard industry practice. This represents the “best” a slaughtered cow can hope for, but many reports and videos exist that suggest that cows still being alive and conscious while being skinned or dismembered on the production line is not uncommon, some of these reports come from slaughterhouse workers themselves.

5) Leather often involves human exploitation.

The chemicals used to tan leather, and the toxic water that is a byproduct of tanning, affect workers as well as the environment; illness and death due to toxic tanning chemicals is extremely common. Workers across the sector have significantly higher morbidity, largely due to respiratory diseases linked to the chemicals used in the tanning process. Exposure to chromium (for workers and local communities), pentachlorophenol and other toxic pollutants increase the risk of dermatitis, ulcer nasal septum perforation and lung cancer.

Open Democracies report for the Child Labour Action Research Programme shows that there is a startlingly high prevalence of the worst forms of child labour across the entire leather supply chain. Children as young as seven have been found in thousands of small businesses processing leather. This problem is endemic throughout multiple countries supplying the global leather market.

6) Pleather is not a ‘vegan thing’.

Plastic clothing is ubiquitous in fast fashion, and it certainly wasn’t invented for vegans. Plastic leather jackets have been around since before anyone even knew what the word vegan meant, marketing department have begun describing it as ‘vegan leather’ but it’s really no more a vegan thing than polyester is. Most people who wear pleather are not vegan, they just can’t afford to buy cow’s leather, which remains extremely expensive compared to comparable fabrics.

It is striking how anti-vegans consistently talk about how ‘not everyone can afford to eat plant-based’ and criticise vegans for advocating for veganism on that basis, yet none of them seem to mind criticisms directed at people for wearing a far cheaper alternative than leather. You can obviously both be vegan and reduce plastic (as we all should), but vegans wear plastic clothing for the same reason everyone else does: It is cheaper.

7) Plastic is not the only alternative.

When engaging in criticism of pleather, the favourite tactic seems to be drawing a false dilemma where we pretend the only options are plastic and leather. Of course, this is a transparent attempt to draw the debate on lines favourable to advocates of leather, by omitting the fact that you can quite easily just buy neither one.

Alternatives include denim, hemp, cork, fiber, mushroom fiber, cotton, linen, bamboo, recycled plastic, and pinatex, to name a few. There are exceptions in professions like welding, where an alternative can be difficult to source, but nobody needs a jacket, shoes or a bag that looks like leather. For most of us, leather is a luxury item that doesn’t even need to be replaced at all.

8) Leather is not uniquely long-lasting.

The longevity of leather is really the only thing it has going for it, environmentally speaking. Replacing an item less often means fewer purchases, and will likely have a lower environmental impact than one you have to replace regularly. Leather is not unique in this respect, however, and the idea that it is, is mostly just effective marketing.

As your parents will tell you, a well-made denim jacket can last a lifetime. Hemp and bamboo can both last for decades, as can cork and pinatex. Even cotton and linen can last for many years when items are looked after well. While some materials are more hard wearing than others, how long an item will last is mostly the result of how well made the product is and how well it is maintained, not whether or not the item is leather.

[buried-l0cket]

Polygun but it’s how they all see each other

i always really like in books with different narrators when how a character looks itself is unreliable narration bc they describe themself differently compared to how the other pov characters see them, and the dungeon meshi shapeshifter chart scratched that itch for me art wise and I got inspired ✨

To be more specific this is what they each picture when they think of each person 👉👈

Details under cut!!

Meryl clothing details aside because I think she’s just short and the boys aren’t looking at her traveling clothes too hard (and vash clearly likes making his own clothes with how much his overly intricate jacket design changes so ofc his version of her outfit just looks like another one of his designs 🙄) all of the clothes are based on specific parts of the manga!

A big thing with these designs was taking moments that were important regarding each characters relationship with the pov character and adding in visual nods to that to show what memories stuck with them to shape their image of that person.

The clearest example of this is everyone thinking of a different Vash coat, for Wolfwood it’s what he was wearing when he turned him over to Knives, to Meryl it’s his final fight coat, and for Milly it’s when she met him.

It may be Trimax but I will always have a soft spot for 98 millywood so those two’s impression of each other has been influenced by that, but more specifically just the idea of them both alone together, layers and walls down, hair messy from sleep. Their relationship is one I just see very clearly developing over a lot of late nights at inns and bars during traveling!

Vash is the trademarked inventor of Savior Martyr Victim complex supreme and when he thinks of everyone he sees times they’ve been let down by him. To me he’s the biggest broken gear in their dynamic because of the way he holds himself back and isolates, the ship really works in spite of him most of the time. But he also sees traces of times his desire to be by their side was cemented. His Meryl is heavily based on after she was kidnapped by the GHGs and he lost control in front of her, but her hair is longer + earrings are gone like when they saw each other again after Knives released the ark, and she has a black turtleneck peaking out from under her traveling clothes the way it did under her space suit during the final battle. His Milly has the hair and undershirt of the final battle but her outer clothes are from when they traveled together for the majority of Trimax. His wolfwood isn’t doing too well.

Meryl’s versions of Milly and Wolfwood are both pretty similar to how they looked when she first met them, wolfwoods hair is just a little longer like I imagine it being towards the end of Trimax and is very windswept, from their short first meeting in the original Trigun manga run I always got the impression she thought he looked very cool lol, she was staring up at him like ://0 the whole chapter.

I mentioned it before but honestly most of Wolfwood’s Vash is based on how he looked when he turned him over to Knives, not only do I think that moment stuck with him but I feel like it’s a good visual summary of all the mixed feelings he has towards Vash. He’s drawn to him and sees how sad he his but he also sees how inhuman he is and the threat he and knives pose for the people he cares about and prioritizes. At the end of the day Wolfwood chose the orphans over Vash twice and never went back on that, and a big part of why he broke Vash our of Knives prison was just so he could go fight Knives to the death for humanity’s sake, and I think that’s important to his character and their relationship.

Similarly, Meryl’s Vash is really just final arc Vash. She’d already developed a very strong impression of him before then but they would go weeks to even years without seeing each other and each time the way he looked and the way she felt about him would change drastically, it seemed to me like it wasn’t till she was on the ship advocating for him and the people living on gunsmoke that she knew how she felt about him and what kind of person she saw him to be. It was also a huge moment for her character wise with the way she faced her fears in the name of human connection and made the active choice to not be as apathetic and closed off as she realized she had been in the early manga.

I think Milly’s first impression of Vash was strong and accurate enough to not change much, this nice guy is Vash the Stampede and there is definitely something weird about him.

I don’t know why Wolfwood doesn’t know what Meryl’s hair looks like, what’s wrong with that guy? In general his version of Meryl is very inaccurate now that I’m looking at it, I promise he likes her

+small details that are my personal headcanon and not the characters interpretations are Meryl and Wolfwoods hair being a bit more curly/textured than canon, Milly’s eyes being green, and Meryl’s earrings being silver (gold earrings with a white black and blue outfit and silver guns?? C’mon girl accessorize properly)

[allthecanadianpolitics]

I want your thoughts on this: aside from lithium, one major issue with electric cars is that our current grid cannot support that many electric cars. Do you think we should focus on finding an eco friendly replacement for lithium and build up our grid, focus on hybrids, or focus fully on public transport?

Electric Cars are flashy but they generally don't serve a lot of people at a time, and so can be wasteful from a natural resources and energy requirement point of view. They're also still very expensive and not affordable for the average working class person.

Electric Cars are fine and should have investments in place, but I'd much rather put the majority of the investments into electric buses and especially high speed rail. Public transit will make a much bigger impact than electrifying the entire auto industry:

Also, I'd rather we started moving away from car-centric cities in favour of walkable and bikeable cities. The whole idea of car-centric big cities and isolated suburbs is not a sustainable model for the future of urban planning in 2024.

[grandlinedreams]

Hiya, i love your writing!! I was wondering if I could request something for Ace? They're longtime friends and they're together and often sneak around to see each other and maybe they get caught one of the times and reader is slightly embarrassed while Ace is laughing as whoever found them is teasing them. Thank you!

Ough YES wkdjdnds that idea is so funny but also ghg the secondhand embarrassment,,,

[Heads up!: established relationship, a little suggestive at the beginning, Ace is a little shit but we love him]

Ace has a way with words. You know he does, energetic and cheerful as he is ㅡ he knows the weight of words and how to use them, especially to get out of trouble. (You know very well. How often has he wormed his way out of a tab at a restaurant with just a grin and a few strategic words?)

He also has a way with them where you're involved ㅡ a hand on your back, a low whisper in your ear, and you're willing to do whatever he wants.

Which is the only reason you can think of as to why you let your loveable boyfriend convince you that what you're currently doing is a good idea.

"Ace," you manage between the siege of warm kisses he peppers against your face, "we're gonna get caughtㅡ"

"No we won't," he answers, squeezing at your hips, "I promise. It's just you and me."

Your heart aches with how sincere he sounds, the comfort of his smile ㅡ so you lean in to kiss him properly. It doesn't take long for it to dissolve into something needier, the practiced exploration of his hands across your body, feeding off your muffled whimpers and moans.

Ace's fingers pop the button of your pants at the same time that the door opens.

"So this is where the two of you have been, yoi."

You freeze. Ace, in all of his casual, unbothered glory, simply turns to grin at Marco. "Hey, Marco! Sorry, we got a little distracted."

The older man raises an eyebrow. "I can see that," he remarks, amused ㅡ and he laughs when you groan and hide your face in Ace's shoulder. "The next time you two want to get distracted with each other, try finding somewhere else."

Ace's grin doesn't falter. "You got it!"

You listen to Marco's footsteps fade, face still pressed into Ace's skin as your cheeks burn. "I'm going to kill you."

"Don't be like that," he soothes. "Marco's not gonna say anything about it, and it's not like we haven't been caught before in far more compromising positions."

You blanch. "Don't remind me." You sigh before you pull away enough to cup your boyfriend's face, endlessly enamored with the freckles scattered across his face before you bump your forehead against his. "The next time we do anything, you better hope it's behind a locked door, or I'll make you regret it. Got it?"

Ace blinks at the fire blazing in your eyes, and he swallows. "Got it."

[reasonsforhope]

Scientists keep saying ghg emissions will peak, but they keep increasing every year. If renewable energy is growing exponentially, why, from the outside, does it seem like it is having no effect on emissions?

It is having an effect on emissions: It's preventing emissions that would've otherwise happened. Lots of them

Eventually it will start eating into fossil fuel emissions, but that hasn't happened yet, because our population keeps growing, and so do our infrastructure and energy needs.

Like, DON'T get alarmist about this fact btw because you don't need to, but here's the reason:

The world population has grown by 2 billion in the last 23 years

That's a lot of new people, which requires a lot more energy use, which means we need a LOT more energy - and renewables can't supply all of it quite yet

(Like I said, you don't need to panic about out-of-control population growth, it's going to level out way sooner than you think by itself. Sidenote all "population control measures" are ecofascist, eugenics, and a terrible fucking idea. Overpopulation is a myth.)

But yeah. Add a lot of people, you need to add a lot of buildings, a lot of roads, a lot of extra dams and aqueducts, much bigger cities, a lot of transportation, a lot of heaters and A/C unites, a lot of shipping and transport of a lot of global goods.

All of that takes emissions to produce and generally takes more emissions to keep running

Also worth mentioning that different countries will reach peak emissions at different times, and some already have. Those that have have absolutely done so thanks to renewables.

More detail on how renewables have prevented greenhouse gas emissions here:

-via IEA (International Energy Agency, they mostly only go by the acronym now, though), March 2, 2023

[pepperpixel]

Hello! I watched your speedpaints on repeat when I was in middle school (like 6 years ago) and sometimes still go back and watch them for the sake of nostalgia and good music. I just wanted to let you know you’ve touched my life and left a print, thank you 🤍

Thank you. So so much. For sending me this??? The me who made all those youtube videos. Doesn’t exist anymore. Life got harder. In so many new and horrible ways. And that like. Spark to create kinda died. And also I had more important shit to worry about all of a sudden. But. Knowing that it left on impact on someone enough to send me a message. Years after I’ve stopped making them tho. Idk.. that means something.. I appreciate you didn’t forget about me! (/my videos lol. I kno u don’t kno me. My vids and art feel a bit like. An extension of me tho? In a way. But I kno that it’s not a 1:1 thing. My art an videos express thoughts ideas and feelings of mine. But they are not. Me. Just lil slivers of me.. Tiny lil portions from specific moments in time.)

Sometimes it feels like those videos were just a flash in the pan. A brief moment of attention and fame I didn’t grab onto hard enough… and now the moments long gone. but. I didn’t rlly want to grab onto it, I just wanted to make fun videos. And show off my music taste lol. And express. The music videos my brain would create in my head into the real world. And then I got too busy w real life kicking my ass. (Ps. life has now stopped kicking my ass!! It’s gotten better. Just. Not the same as it was before) Maybe I’ll get back into it one day. If I have any new ideas. Once I get stable and know what I’m doing. And get like an iPad or something so I don’t have to wrangle w my laptop lol. But yeah!!! Srry.. I’m rambling a lot.. this message just made me emotional ok! I’m being openly vulnerable in turn hopefully that’s not too weird lol. I’m happy my videos had an impact on your life!! That means. A fucking ton. Like. Words cannot properly express the weird happy feeling that gives me in my heart. Thank you so much!! For real!!! Srry for getting all in depth about my life again this message just!!! Struck an introspective chord w me!!!

[magadauthan]

Ep 21: Out of Time

Only five more episodes left? Damn, moving right along for the @trigun98watchparty.

Oops, I forgot the intro and cut. Part Two of the Flying Ship arc. Wherein pretty much everyone gets killed.

...It's very convenient that the Plant light socket covers Knives' naughty bits.

--Legato's monologuing is so... hacky. He needs a better speechwriter. Along with the rest of the GHGs.

--The earring communicator reappears!

--There's a lot not explained about the GHGs and their abilities (no TriMax yet, no Eye of Michael, I know.) Yes, they're typical anime baddies, but the viewer is left to infer that they are augmented humans. How'd they get that way? Legato is the only one who has any kind of explanation for his superhuman abilities, and it's because he has Vash's arm. (wtf happened there, anyway? Knives hauled his burned arse up off the floor of Conrad's office, packed his brother's ragged arm in ice, and gimped off to his secret hideout?)

--Kuroneko is sitting on the keyboard, "helping" Doc like a proper cat.

--Closest look yet at a Plant. No idea why "little sister" was translated as "friend." This scene shows neatly that even the shipfolk don't necessarily realize that Plants are beings; that they are alive. This must be where Tristamp got the notion regarding Plant healing.

--Again - so glad that Brad got his redemption in the other two incarnations. Totally with WW on Leonov's outcome.

--Poor Vash, taking the fall again. Another safe haven turns on him. His new friend Brad dies in his arms. My god, Knives, you really are the goddamn worst. Vash can not have one single nice thing with you around.

How much of this series in all incarnations comes down to "Knives is upset because his brother has friends?" He's a great big homicidal baby because Vash connects with any entity other than himself. Knives is a little kid throwing his toys and screaming because his best pal at daycare played trucks with another kid. "I have to be the most special to you, your best friend has to be me, and if I'm not your bestie, then I'm gonna get rid of all the other kids until you don't have any choice." Sure yeah whatever, humans abuse Plants blah blah Eden blah blah human trash garbage blah. It's an excuse. Knives is perfectly happy to kill his sisters if it means Vash can't have any friends. Collateral damage in the service of a greater good.

[canmom]

a few critical comments on "The Busy Worker's Handbook to the Apocalypse"

so i read this one very doomer medium article The Busy Worker's Handbook to the Apocalypse the other day, which attempts to argue that with the amount of GHGs already in the atmosphere, collapse of human society is inevitable and imminent, in a way that the scientific establishment such as the IPCC is instutionally unable to admit. I will warn, if you're prone to anxiety, don't read it, because the article is bleak as hell and quite effective rhetoric. it opens with a largely correct overview of climate science which lends it credibility, before jumping to the worst imaginable conclusions about various feedbacks and tipping points.

and like... it got me a bit. immediately after I read it, I was left with a horrifying feeling that this is as good as it will ever get, that the end of it all was only years away, that all my hopes for what I'd do for the next few decades and what is prefigured by this or that social development were utter delusions, and all there was left to do was just try and make the best of the last few years before we all die in the big cascading-failure famine.

but... ok Bryn, hold your fucking horses, let's do some research eh?

to begin with, I found one critique video that points out a number of places where the author makes scientific errors, misunderstands his sources, or doesn't justify his conclusions. for example, the author argues that a 'blue sea event' where the polar ice melts would lead to immediate, catastrophic warming as the latent heat of fusion no longer absorbs any incoming radiation, and also that the success of measures to reduce air pollution will accelerate warming; these seem to both be straight up wrong. but that doesn't cover everything I had questions about.

for example, one scenario discussed in the 'handbook' is 'multi breadbasket failure'. the idea is that, given that most of the world's food is produced in a few specific regions, this is a scenario where two or more of the major food-producing regions suffer very low yields in the same year due to climate shit. and this isn't farfetched, there is mainstream scientific discussion of this concept. for an accessible analysis, I found this article by some major capitalist consulting company (assess bias accordingly) which gives some actual numbers, including estimates of which crops are more likely to fail as the climate changes (rice, corn and soy are in trouble, but wheat, oddly enough, could actually do better in a warmer world).

however, while the author of the guide to the apocalypse suggests that, thanks to 'just in time' supply chains, there are almost no reserves of food and everything is on ships... the mckinsey article quotes a figure of 30% 'stock-to-use ratio', meaning there is a fair chunk of food in the granaries. they seem to predict that if two 'breadbaskets' fail in the same year, causing a 15% drop in yield, that ratio would drop to about 20%. the immediate result would be food price spikes (which means a lot of people would starve) but it's not a complete 'global megafamine' collapse.

'course, the question then is what happens if it happens again a few years later? but at least theoretically the 'multi breadbasket failure' scenario could be drastically mitigated by 1. producing food in more different places so the eggs are in fewer baskets 2. storing more food when times are good (something discussed in the mckinsey article) and 3. the world broadly eating less meat (since most crops are grown to feed animals, which adds a trophic level of inefficiency), so less grain is needed to feed everyone. i don't know if that's actually gonna happen, but it's not prima facie impossible.

on the other hand, the author of the Handbook argues that a world renewable energy transition is not just infeasible but physically impossible, because it demands reserves of metal that do not exist to roll out all the wires, turbines, etc etc. I was already fairly pessimistic about whether the renewable energy transition could happen in time (since there is little evidence that the current renewable deployment is making any sort of dent in GHG emissions, which remain resolutely coupled to economic activity); I was also conscious that the amount of mining to produce all the batteries and so on would have its own devastating impacts. but the argument that it is impossible even in principle is new to me.

so is that actually true? the Handbook bases this point entirely on the work of Dr Simon Michaux of the Finnish Geological Survey, who presents the calculation in this hour-long presentation based on this report (summary). this is honestly an excellent presentation, explaining the methodology really clearly - it reminds me of SEWTHA back in the day, a book I found very formative. And actually McKay also raised the question of materials:

To create 48 kWh per day of offshore wind per person in the UK would require 60 million tons of concrete and steel – one ton per person. Annual world steel production is about 1200 million tons, which is 0.2 tons per person in the world. During the second world war, American shipyards built 2751 Liberty ships, each containing 7000 tons of steel – that’s a total of 19 million tons of steel, or 0.1 tons per American. So the building of 60 million tons of wind turbines is not off the scale of achievability; but don’t kid yourself into thinking that it’s easy. Making this many windmills is as big a feat as building the Liberty ships.

McKay's analysis was based only on the UK; the figure of 48kWh/d comes from McKay's estimate of plausible maximum wind capacity for the UK only. He also takes into account some modest reductions in energy use. So my sense was that a completely renewable energy system would be an unprecedented megaproject, but not utterly implausible.

By comparison, Michaux's analysis (which I took a bunch of notes on, I'll post in a minute) has a worldwide scope, and rather than using back of the envelope physical calculations, relies on data on existing systems which largely did not exist when McKay was alive. It is nevertheless a rough estimate, and crucially, focuses on the question of completely replacing current fossil fuel use. Where good data did not exist, like the amount of steel and concrete used in a wind turbine, it was not included in the analysis, since the purpose was to get a lower bound.

The report covers a number of different minerals, many of which existing reserves fall short and it would take thousands of years to produce enough at current production levels. Copper is the big one: he estimates some 4.5 billion tones would be needed, where only 0.88 billion tonnes of reserved are publicly known to exist, and the rate of new discoveries has tailed off to near zero. I see no error in his calculation (though I haven't checked the numbers in detail, the method is sound).

However, there is a major caveat. The vast, vast majority of this copper would go to millions of battery banks used to provide just four weeks of storage to make it through the wind production lulls in the winter. This covers about 4.2 billion tonnes; by comparison the amount of copper used for one generation everything else (wind turbines, EV batteries etc.) is a still-hefty 0.3 billion tonnes. So that raises the question of whether there's an alternative to all those batteries, mature enough to be deployed at a scale to provide 0.55PWh of energy storage (or likely, more) in a decade or two. My understanding is most other tech (flywheels etc.) is still on the 'tiny pilot plant' sort of scale.

Anyway, as far as like the future of humanity goes, I already agree with Michaux's main point that maintaining current rates of energy consumption is just not viable; the future is necessarily going to be much lower energy. (I also don't really think 'decoupling' economic activity from energy use to somehow preserve capitalism's exponential curve is really plausible.)

However, the way the author of the Handbook uses Michaux's estimates is not supported. Michaux proved that a 1:1 replacement of fossil fuel energy consumption with renewables is not possible; that necessarily implies that (since fossil fuels are just starting to run dry and becoming less viable) we have to get by on less energy. And yeah, that obviously implies substantial changes to how people live in rich countries, crushing the super-rich etc.; it's fair to say the whole system must become less complex, in ecological terms.

I do still agree it's more than understandable to be pessimistic about whether that will happen without everything collapsing first - to put it mildly, there is a lot of inertia in a system this complex! - but it's not physically impossible that humans could accomplish a renewable energy transition, contract and rationalise how we use what energy we can get, and still have everyone live relatively comfortably. (After all, life on Earth has managed to live sustainably on solar power for billions of years, indefinitely recycling carbon, nitrogen etc. between high and low energy forms and dumping all the unusable high-entropy energy into space; I stand by the belief that there is no intrinsic reason that human society, even with complex technologies like computers, could not eventually assume a similar equilibrium if we survive. Though could does not mean is likely to....)

So I'm not convinced that we're a few years away from the first domino falling in the apocalypse. The situation is very very bad, don't get me wrong, I do basically agree the current socioeconomic world system is not capable of adapting fast enough as it stands, and I do find it increasingly hard to imagine the prospect of it being overturned, so I don't think the gigadeaths future is out of the question or even unlikely. But it's at least not the imminent near-certainty this essay makes out. If it comes, it will be more drawn-out than that. We don't need to live as if we will certainly die in a year or five.

So... now back to not thinking about it and fiddling while the world burns, I guess? :/

[hikennosabo]

#tristampparty day 3, episode 3: bright light, shine through the darkness

DAY 3 OF @tristampparty!! this episode was the one that hooked me lol, LET'S GOOOOO

the radio dj here is vash's jp seiyuu, masaya onosaka!! the voice of the humanoid typhoon talking about an approaching storm... but it's knives who's the storm...

also i LOVE how knives just saunters slowly towards the city. we barely know anything about him but it immediately sets him up as an imposing presence.

once again roberto is quick on the uptake. like he not only knows exactly who's responsible for all this but he's got him fuckin PROFILED. truly a senior reporter.

also is it just me or is eg the mine the most forgettable gung-ho gun. i keep calling him MC Bomber (<- that's an ace attorney reference)

he looks very good here

he just prepared this ahead of time i guess...? for dramatic effect i guess??? and it happened to be in the right spot, where everyone was watching??? this is what the ghg's budget goes to???

the plants are pretty goddamn resilient, aren't they? like obviously it would be a bad idea to contain them in glass that could easily break, but this poor plant has been through so much today, and there isn't so much as a crack.

i love how roberto puts his whole pussy into meryl's plan. he's always chiding her for her reckless behavior but he goes all in on this.

this scene reminds me of that one scene... yknow the one where the guy is like, "this guy killed my daughter" and vash is like, "don't kill him!" and... oh, it was the scene after vash sings his total slaughter song!! yeah!!

"whose side are you on?" count: 1

okay i'm obsessed with knives's introduction scene because

nobody noticed him enter the city. granted, they were distracted, but still.

he made a BEELINE for the piano?!?! WHY... THAT'S SO FUNNY OF HIM... he was really like "okay before i do ANYTHING else i have to find a piano and play my little tune" he's such a fucking drama queen

lost arm count: 2

wait this is in the diner?! i didnt even notice there was a piano in the diner. goddamn.

"whose side are you on?" count: 2

i'm just... putting a pin in this line for later.

i still don't fully understand what knives did to vash's gun...? honestly i also still don't really understand how gates work either...? orange probably has it all written out to the last detail in their lore bible...

also god i just. love how knives moves. he's so imposing. ouuuahahghghh

lost arm count: 3

i have some questions about why this is happening in this order. so mine scoped out the city beforehand and prepped all his bombs so he could have fun killing and steal the plant. then knives arrives afterwards which i don't think mine anticipated? like based on how he reacts, he seems surprised that knives is there? and then ninelives + conrad + elendira ii* (*she is not my elendira) show up and knives says:

did knives actually not know he was coming or is he being sarcastic LOL. also because he says "good timing" like did he not expect them to be there?! why did they all arrive at different times. are the ghg just that disorganized.

also i'm so concerned for rosa in these episodes LOL she's getting tossed around so much while pregnant... is the baby okay?!?!

lost arm count: 4

i love how we never actually get a proper look at knives's face this episode - this is the first "good" look we get, and it's only half.

"whose side are you on?" count: 3

his EXPRESSION here AAUAHGHGHGHGAHAOAHGHHG

i just wanted to point out vash fully reloading his gun because earlier in the episode when he shot at eg mine's vantage point he only put one bullet in his gun.

godddd when knives destroys the city. i can't do it justice with screenshots but it's such a gorgeous scene and it was the moment i became enthralled with this character LOL. that was over 6 months ago... actually wait. *checks* it was SEVEN months ago TO THE DATE. EXACTLY SEVEN MONTHS AGO. I'VE BEEN MICROWAVING KNIVES FOR SEVEN MONTHS. WATCHING HIM SPARK IN THERE.

oh also hey we see that gofsef is still alive actually. father nebraska did all that for nothing smh.

lost arm count: 5

rosa says this but honestly... knives would have stolen the plant regardless of vash's presence. like he didn't really engage vash that much in this episode. like he said what he wanted to say but it's clear his priority was the plant. which, considering what i said in my first post about the subs and dub script... yeah i think those were wrong.

and the fact she calls him humanoid typhoon, not by his name... oof

okay i can't focus on writing this post anymore cause i'm distracted by vtubers again so we'll end it here. WOLFWOOD INTRODUCTION NEXT EP LET'S GOOOOOO

[learnwithmearticles]

French Politics Update

Since the 2024 French elections earlier this year, we left off with a more balanced National Assembly. Left-wing politicians became the highest population at 188 seats with centrist Emmanuel Macron still the president. The centrist party is not far behind with 161 seats and the right-wing party with 142.

Many networks at the time discussed the expectation of a hung parliament, as no one party holds the 289-seat majority.

Some things stay the same. In July, the National Assembly voted to keep centrist party member Yaël Braun-Pivet as speaker, winning by 13 votes. Additionally, many people have called for Macron to step down as President, but he will likely stay for the rest of his term until 2027. 

New PM

On the other hand, there have been major changes. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resigned in July, and was replaced by Michel Barnier in September. He is a conservative, the leader of the 2016-2019 Brexit negotiation, and his appointment was met with much criticism from the left-wing parties.

Days after his appointment, over 100,000 people participated in protests across France. Many people view President Macron’s PM choice as disruptive to democracy, as the PM is most often chosen from the dominant National Assembly party.

Macron states that he made this choice based on the belief that Barnier seemed the most capable of dealing with political deadlocks, as is expected of the Parliament with no party holding majority.

I have to wonder, though, if this was also out of spite for the left-wing parties winning more seats than his centrist party. Barnier’s politics are expected to rely on joint support from the centrist and conservative parties. If the right or center opposes him on anything, he almost certainly will face loss after loss with his proposed policies. Will this lead France backward after the left finally gained some political power?

Barnier’s Address

Barnier delivered his first parliamentary address on Tuesday, October 1st. Summarily, he emphasized the hazard of French finances and debts, and the environment.

France is more than 3 trillion euros in public and environmental debt, which Barnier addresses first. His goal is to bring the deficit down from 6% of the national GDP to 5% in 2025, with the goal of under 3% by 2029.

His outline for achieving this is reducing spending, being more efficient in government spending (addressing corruption and unjustified spending), and taxes. He phrases higher taxes as a temporary measure, and states that large companies as well as the richest and wealthiest French people will be asked for exceptional contributions.

Barnier also addresses environmental debt. He plans to continue reducing GHG emissions, and for France to be more active in the EU and in the Paris Agreements, which push for countries to collectively act against climate change. He also mentions encouraging industry transitions in energy and recycling, encouraging nuclear energy development, and developing renewable resources of energy more, like biofuels and solar energy.

He has also conceived of a large national conference to act on the matter of water, the scarcity of which is an imminent issue for France.

Additionally, he plans to propose a yearly day of citizens consultations. In his idea, doors will be open for citizens for people of all levels of government to ask questions and start discussions and debates on various topics.

Another noteworthy statement from Barnier is that the pension reform bill voted on in 2023 might have to be changed, which received a loud reply from the audience.

As someone living in a country where an entire political party is built on denying factual evidence and realities, it is surprising to hear someone who does not deny climate change, and calls for equitable taxes to address debt.

About 30 minutes into his address, though, New Caledonia comes up. This is more in line with expectations of conservatives. New Caledonia is still a colonized territory of France, and a recent bill from Macron was going to disadvantage native Kanak people for the advancement of French loyalists on the archipelago. After fatal protests, the bill has been suspended before ratification, likely to be readdressed in 2025.

Also in conservative spirit, Barnier calls for stricter immigration policies in effort to meet “integration objectives”. France faces a cost-of-living crisis and an affordable housing shortage that has buttressed the right’s stance on needing stricter border measures.

Le Pen Trial

Also straining politics, especially for right-wing support, is recent news about popular right-wing figure Marine Le Pen.

On September 30th, Le Pen faced charges of embezzling European Parliament money. The right-wing party Rassemblement National is accused of filing false employee records in order to improperly use funds to pay members of the party. Le Pen is one of many senior party members involved in the alleged embezzlement.

This trial is expected to go on for seven to nine weeks, so the final outcome is some time away. But for now we can expect this will have negative impacts if Le Pen still vies for presidential election in 2027. It will likely also decrease citizen’s trust in the conservative party’s ability to make responsible economic decisions.

If found guilty, Le Pen and the other defendants could face up to ten years in prison and lose the eligibility to run for office.

After the 2024 shock vote instigated by President Macron, the French National assembly gained a left-leaning majority, though not enough for an automatic 289-vote majority. In most cases, this would mean a left-wing Prime Minister as well as a left-wing president, though that’s because the presidential vote is usually shortly after that of the national assembly.

Contrarily, Macron went with a conservative candidate that he believed to be stronger for the job. This increases the political unrest in the country, and increases the likelihood of delays and blockages in legislation development.

While the conservative Prime Minister has stated many intentions that people in the U.S.A. might call left-leaning, regarding climate change and tax targets, his appointment has upset many. His views on immigration, especially, contrast with most left-wing groups who want integration and safety for others. Overall, this decision from Macron calls into question his loyalty and dedication to the wants of the French people.

Additional Resources

1. New Prime Minister

2. Barnier on Borrowed Time

3. Le Pen on Trial

4. Barnier Address

5. Barnier Address Summary

[acti-veg]

what's funny, is that real leather does more environmental damage than faux (happy to provide scientifically backed/peer reviewed studies if interested). PU leather is really the lesser of two evils, though i'd suggest boycotting both. leather isn't a necessity, and i even refrain from wearing second-hand leather. i don't enjoy the prospect of giving others the idea that the commodification of animals is okay.

besides, if you really want to wear leather, alternatives like cork, pineapple, cactus etc. exist!

It's appears to be worse for GHG emissions, there is some debate about longevity etc. but the impact of that is harder to measure. This is the central deceipt of this whole conversation though; the idea that leather is somehow a necessity for modern life so if you aren't buying cow hide, you must be buying plastic. That this false dichotomy is even needed to make this argument should tell you enough about how rational it is.