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thegloober · 6 years ago

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Emmys Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win in 2018?

The 2018 Primetime Emmys are just a few days away, so it’s time to take a look back at the last year in television to see if “Game of Thrones” will dominate again, and who will step up in the comedy categories with “Veep” out of contention this year.

Last year, it was HBO’s blockbuster fantasy series that was ineligible, opening the door for a dominant showing from Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale.” This year, the two shows will be competing against one another.

Meanwhile, on the comedy side, three-time Outstanding Comedy winner, “Veep,” took the year off. This means that six-time reigning champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus was also ineligible, opening up the competition for the first time in more than half a decade. Can Tracee Ellis Ross finally rise to the top, or will the buzz of “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” push Rachel Brosnahan above her.

Other shows anticipating a big night include “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story,” which is looking to virtually sweep the limited series category, and “Saturday Night Live,” which saw more acting nominations this year than in its entire history.

All eyes will also be on “The Americans,” the critically acclaimed Russian spy series in its last year of eligibility, as well as “This Is Us,” slowly creeping more and more into the spotlight and trying to bring even more Emmy gold back to network television. Perhaps an Oustanding Dramatic Series win to match its SAG Award earlier this year?

No matter what happens, TooFab is sure to disagree with some — or all — of their choices. So we’ve made our own predictions on who will win, and who should win.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

“The Amazing Race” (CBS)

“American Ninja Warrior” (NBC)

“Project Runway” (Lifetime)

“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1)

“Top Chef” (Bravo)

“The Voice” (NBC)

Not much changes in this category year after year, with both “The Amazing Race” and “The Voice” dominating the category, and the latter taking the award the past three years running. It definitely seems like the shine has worn off of “Race,” which continues to be nominated every year that this award has existed. While we’d love to see “RuPaul’s Drag Race” win it in its second year of contention for being the funniest and most innovative reality show on telveision, “The Voice” added Jennifer Hudson in Season 13 and fellow “Idol” alum Kelly Clarkson in Season 14, Both moves proved incredibly popular with fans and critics, keeping the show in the spotlight and re-energizing it, making “The Voice” likely to win for the fourth straight year.

Should Win: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1)

Will Win: “The Voice” (NBC)

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

“At Home with Amy Sedaris” (truTV)

“Drunk History” (Comedy Central)

“I Love You, America with Sarah Silverman” (Hulu)

“Portlandia” (IFC)

“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

“Tracey Ullman’s Show” (HBO)

In only its fourth year as a distinct category, the variety format was largely dominated by “Saturday Night Live,” which continues to experience a renaissance largely in part to the Trump White House and Alec Baldwin’s recurring performance as the Commander in Chief. Amy Sedaris and Sarah Silverman injected new blood into the category, but their shows don’t feel as fully realized yet as the returning nominees. Honestly, it would be nice if “Portlandia” took home a trophy in its final year as one of the most consistently funny and unique sketch shows in the history of the format. Fred Armisen and Carrie Brownstein went largely under-appreciated for eight years in this gem, but there’s no way they’re going to stop the “SNL” juggernaut, riding more acting nominations (nine total) this year than ever before.

Should Win: “Portlandia” (IFC)

Will Win: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

“The Daily Show with Trevor Noah” (Comedy Central)

“Full Frontal with Samantha Bee” (TBS)

“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)

“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)

“The Late Late Show with James Corden” (CBS)

“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (NBC)

This is another category that has benefited tremendously from the controversial Trump White House, with John Oliver the two-time reigning champion. “The Daily Show” returns for the first time with new host Trevor Noah, but he wasn’t nearly as strong as Oliver or Stephen Colbert or Jimmy Kimmel in their skewering of current events, which will likely determine the winner here. And while it feels very inevitable that Oliver’s well-researched and lengthy breakdowns will win again, there’s definitely something to be said for how well Colbert has revitalized the “Late Show” with a new sense of energy. He’s turned it into one of the smartest and most relevant shows on television, often writing his monologue and bits up to the moment the cameras start rolling, and he does it on a daily show.

Should Win: “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)

Will Win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Jeff Daniels, “Godless” (Netflix)

Brandon Victor Dixon, “Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert” (NBC)

John Leguizamo, “Waco” (Paramount Network)

Ricky Martin, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX)

Edgar Ramirez, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX)

Michael Stuhlbarg, “The Looming Tower” (Hulu)

Finn Wittrock, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX)

Brandon Victor Dixon was a revelation in NBC’s live production of “Jesus Christ Superstar,” easily stealing the show from many of the more known Hollywood stars in the cast. But is that enough to topple the Academy’s clear love for “American Crime Story,” with three total nods? Or Emmy favorite Jeff Daniels, who’s double-nominated this year for his work here in “Godless,” and in the lead role in “The Looming Tower.” We think his villainous turn in the under-appreciated Western is what’s going to bring home Emmy gold, while “ACS” will score elsewhere.

Should Win: Brandon Victor Dixon, “Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert” (NBC)”

Will Win: Jeff Daniels, “Godless” (Neflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Sara Bareilles, “Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert” (NBC)

Penelope Cruz, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX)

Judith Light, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX)

Adina Porter, “American Horror Story: Cult” (FX)

Merritt Wever, “Godless” (Netflix)

Letitia Wright, “Black Museum (Black Mirror)” (Netflix)

Letitia Wright is riding high from “Black Panther,” and this nom is more a reflection of her cultural relevance at the moment, while Sara Bareilles is a huge surprise and Adina Porter is representing fading franchise in the Academy’s eyes. Judith Light is a television legend, but Merrit Wever is a modern-day legend when it comes to the Academy. She scored her first win for her work on “Nurse Jackie,” and earns her sixth nomination here. She was fantastic as the widowed mayor’s wife in the gloriously dark “Godless,” but the Academy clearly loved “American Crime Story” and it’s going to be hard to resist Penelope Cruz’s relentless take on fashion icon Donatella Versace … not to mention her movie-star status, which still seems to hold some sway with the Academy.

Should Win: Merritt Wever, “Godless” (Netflix)

Will Win: Penelope Cruz, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Antonio Banderas, “Genius: Picasso” (Nat Geo)

Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (HBO)

Benedict Cumberbatch, “Patrick Melrose” (Showtime)

Jeff Daniels, “The Looming Tower” (Hulu)

John Legend, “Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert” (NBC)

Jesse Plemons, “USS Callister (Black Mirror)” (Amazon)

Plemons was an unexpected surprise for his powerful work in “Black Mirror’s” most popular episode this season (and he could play spoiler here), but this is a category we feel pretty strongly is leaning toward one very deserving performance. Darren Criss fully embodied the twisted serial killer Andrew Cunanan in “American Crime Story” and the performance should and will be recognized for his commitment to it, and the subtle nuances he used to bring the character to sympathetic-yet-terrifying life.

Should Win: Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (HBO)

Will Win: Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Jessica Biel, “The Sinner” (USA)

Laura Dern, “The Tale” (HBO)

Michelle Dockery, “Godless” (Netflix)

Edie Falco, “Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders” (NBC)

Regina King, “Seven Seconds” (Netflix)

Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Cult” (Amazon)

Edie Falco is an Emmy favorite, so if they go with the lazy choice, they might just throw it her way. She’s always solid, but she isn’t the most exciting choice here. Regina King was her usual brilliant self, but she will probably be her usually overlooked self come Emmy night for a show that dropped a while ago and has largely been forgotten. The same goes for Jessica Biel, though she is the most deserving winner her for her stellar work against type in “The Sinner.” Biel was a tour de force, showing greater depth of range and character than we’d ever seen from her, and she owned every episode of the series’ first season. But then there’s Laura Dern, fresh off a win last year for “Big Little Lies,” and an awards-show darling. And while she is solid on “The Tale,” her performance didn’t turn heads and get people talking in the way Biel did.

Should Win: Jessica Biel, “The Sinner” (USA)

Will Win: Laura Dern, “The Tale” (HBO)

“The Alienist” (TNT)

“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX)

“Genius: Picasso” (Nat Geo)

“Godless” (Netflix)

“Patrick Melrose” (Showtime)

“Patrick Melrose” is a little too stodgy,” “The Alienist” a little too commercial and “Genius” a litle under-baked. Honestly, the category didn’t have a lot of really strong contenders on the year, leaving it largely a two-horse race between the Netflix dark Western and FX’s twisted true-crime saga. The latter had way more buzz on the year, and the kind of star power most creators wish they could bring (and Ryan Murphy always seems to be able to pull off). That said, “Godless” is a tighter and more consistent series, while “Crime Story” suffers some bloat and lag in its middle chapters. But we don’t think voters will care.

Should Win: “Godless” (Netflix)

Will Win: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Joseph Fiennes, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

David Harbour, “Stranger Things” (Netflix)

Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland” (Showtime)

Matt Smith, “The Crown” (Amazon)

“Game of Thrones” is back to throw a wrench in things, as “The Handmaid’s Tale” absolutely dominated the Emmys with the HBO favorite absent last season. This year, it’ll be a battle between those two heavyweights and “The Crown” in most categories, though we don’t see Matt Smith putting up enough of a fight here, despite a brilliant season. Peter Dinklage is a two-time winner who had a commanding presence this year, while David Harbour could prove a dark horse contender for his more mature and complicated role in “Stranger Things 2.” But no one gave a performance as challenging or chilling as Joseph Fiennes in “The Handmaid’s Tale,” deserving not only of this recognition, but a trophy as well.

Should Win: Joseph Fiennes, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

Will Win: David Harbour, “Stranger Things” (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Alexis Bledel, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things” (Netflix)

Ann Dowd, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Vanessa Kirby, “The Crown” (Netflix)

Thandie Newton, “Westworld” (HBO)

Yvonne Strahovski, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

Another powerhouse category, and last season’s winner, “The Handmaid’s Tale” faces itself … twice, with two winners already. Alexis Bledel moved from guest to supporting and faces off against last season’s winner here in Ann Dowd, but it’s Yvonne Strahovski who had the most powerful year, scoring her first nod for her tortured work. There’s a chance the Academy wills often on “Thrones” this year, as it will have one more year of eligiblity before its over, or there may just be too much competition here. But the edge may go to Thandie Newton, who has confounded viewers and critics for her unapologetic performance as Maeve, a whore robot suffering a major identity crisis.

Should Win: Yvonne Strahovski, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

Will Win: Thandie Newton, “Westworld” (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Jason Bateman, “Ozark” (Netflix)

Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us” (NBC)

Ed Harris, “Westworld” (HBO)

Matthew Rhys, “The Americans” (FX)

Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us” (NBC)

Jeffrey Wright, “Westworld” (HBO)

Sterling K. Brown won this category, and awards shows love to hand him trophies, so he could easily repeat. But he’s facing stiff competition from his own show, as Milo Ventimiglia played out his much-anticipated death and made audiences love him even more. “Westworld” brought some amazing work from both Jeffrey Wright and Ed Harris, nominated for the first time for this show, while “Ozark” is still settling into its groove. But the show and performance that deserves some attention is Matthew Rhys for his final turn as a KGB spy in “The Americans.” This show has finally gotten some love in nominations, but is woefully under-represented with gold, considering the consistent caliber of its seasons.

Should Win: Matthew Rhys, “The Americans” (FX)

Will Win: Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us” (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Foy, “The Crown” (Netflix)

Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black” (BBC America)

Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Netflix)

Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve” (BBC America)

Keri Russell, “The Americans” (FX)

Evan Rachel Wood, “Westworld” (HBO)

Tatiana Maslany returned to a category she’s done very well, but “Orphan Black” kind of ended with a whimper, so we suspect this is as far as she’ll go. Elisabeth Moss is our returning champ, but she’s facing some stiff competition in Claire Foy. It’s her final season on “The Crown,” and its a performance that has had critics raving for two years now. On top of that, Keri Russell also bids farewell to a critically-acclaimed performance, though she’d be as much a surprise win as her on-screen husband Matthew Rhys for Best Actor. Honestly, we’d love to see both of them go out on top, with twin trophies for six amazing seasons. Or maybe the Academy will just give it to Moss, who was, admittedly, amazing again.

Should Win: Keri Russell, “The Americans” (FX)

Will Win: Claire Foy, “The Crown” (Netflix)

Outstanding Drama Series

“The Americans” (FX)

“The Crown” (Netflix)

“Game of Thrones” (HBO)

“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

“Stranger Things” (Netflix)

“This Is Us” (NBC)

“Westworld” (HBO)

This is a brutal category, featuring the last two winners facing off for the first time with the returning “Game of Thrones” and “The Handmaid’s Tale.” Could one of them repeat and spoil things for the other, or will a fresh upstart get in the way. “The Crown” has been in the shadow of slightly buzzier shows since its inception, but had its strongest season yet, while “Westworld” continues to grow in buzz and accolades and confusion. But this could be the year that broadcast television takes a big stand with the most talked about storyline of the past year in the death of family patricarch Jack Pearson (Milo Ventimiglia — also nominated) on “This Is Us.” Every bit as compelling, sharp and smart as its cable brethren, could it be their time? Probably not, just as “The Americans” will probably get overlooked yet again so “The Handmaid’s Tale” can repeat.

Should Win: “This Is Us” (NBC)

Will Win: “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Louie Anderson, “Baskets” (FX)

Alec Baldwin, “Saturday Night Live” (HBO)

Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (ABC)

Brian Tyree Henry, “Atlanta” (FX)

Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Kenan Thompson, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Henry Winkler, “Barry” (HBO)

Both of the last two winners in this category are still in contention, with Louie Anderson still turning in a uniquely nuanced performance as a put-upon mother on “Baskets.” But that show is getting older now and has little buzz, while last year’s winner, Alec Baldwin, is still bringing Trump to life on “SNL” many times a year. New to the field this year are Brian Tyree Henry, Kenan Thompson and Tony Shalhoub, who used to clean up for “Monk” every year. But the real revelation is Henry Winkler’s dark, hilarious turn as a passionately quirky acting coach on “Barry.”

Should Win: Henry Winkler, “Barry” (HBO)

Will Win: Alec Baldwin, “Saturday Night Live” (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Zazie Beetz, “Atlanta” (FX)

Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Aidy Bryant, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Betty Gilpin, “GLOW” (Netflix)

Leslie Jones, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Laurie Metcalf, “Roseanne” (ABC)

Megan Mullally “Will & Grace” (NBC)

What a stacked category, and with two icons from the ’90s returning to the field for the same roles in Megan Mullally and Laurie Metcalf. The “Roseanne” stink might hurt Metcalf, and the Academy seems even less enthused about “Will & Grace.” The Academy is probably not going to show “Atlanta” love outside of Donald Glover, and the “SNL” ladies could run the risk of cancelling one another out. Kate McKinnon is coming off back-to-back wins, making a third even less likely. So we think the Academy is going to notice and recognize “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” in this category with a well-deserved win for Alex Borstein, who has been working brilliantly in comedy for years (“Family Guy,” “MadTV”) but somehow still largely under the radar.

Should Win: Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Will Win: Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, “black-ish” (ABC)

Ted Danson, “The Good Place” (NBC)

Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)

Donald Glover, “Atlanta” (Hulu)

Bill Hader, “Barry” (Netflix)

William H. Macy, “Shameless” (NBC)

Donald Glover scored a victory in this category last year, but he’s perhaps even more relevant this year thanks to his acclaimed return to music. But he has to face the return of sitcom royalty in Ted Danson, who won several times for his work on “Cheers.” And we know the Academy likes a good comeback kid. But the real surprise here might be Bill Hader as a hitman-turned-actor in “Barry.” If the Acadey wants to go bold, they could choose him, or acknowledge the quietly brilliant and relevant work of Anthony Anderson on “black-ish” all these years. He turned in his most challenging work this year as the show took a dramatic turn when marital issues struck the family.

Should Win: Anthony Anderson, “black-ish” (ABC)

Will Win: Ted Danson, “The Good Place” (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Pamela Adlon, “Better Things” (FX)

Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Allison Janney, “Mom” (CBS)

Issa Rae, “Insecure” (HBO)

Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish” (ABC)

Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie” (Netflix)

The big news for this category is that after six straight wins for ��Veep,” Julia Louis-Dreyfus is not going to win again (but only because “Veep” took the year off). That opens the door for a new face, which could include awards-show fav Allison Janney, still riding that Oscar buzz. But it’s probably going to come down to a battle between Rachel Brosnahan and Tracee Ellis Ross. The latter has been the underdog favorite to win for years, so this could be her chance. But then comes along Brosnahan and one of the most buzzed about shows on television, and Ross might have to settle for a nomination once again. Besides, the real underdog here is Pamela Adlon, who is to the brilliant “Better Things” what Donald Glover is to “Atlanta.” In other words, she is everything, and yet she is again the only thing about this gem even nominated.

Should Win: Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”

Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Outstanding Comedy Series

“Atlanta” (FX)

“Barry” (HBO)

“black-ish” (ABC)

“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)

“GLOW” (Netflix)

“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

“Silicon Valley” (HBO)

“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (Netflix)

Another door that’s opened with “Veep” out of contention this year after a three-year victory streak, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” has all of the buzz, but “Atlanta” is one of the mosts acclaimed shows on television and might rise to the occasion. Honestly, this might be the toughest category to call with eight nominees. “GLOW” surprised everyone with 10 total nominations, but it just feels a little too out there for the Academy. “Silicon Valley” and “Curb” don’t have the edge they used to, and “Barry” may be too unknown yet. No, it comes down to “Maisel” and “Atlanta.” Last year, Glover had to settle for an acting award last year, and we think that’s what will happen with Brosnahan and “Maisel” this year.

Should Win: “Atlanta”

Will Win: “Atlanta”

Find out how many we got right when “The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards” broadcast on Monday, Sep. 17 at 8 p.m .ET on NBC.

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