#eviews homework help

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Seasonal ARIMA Modeling in EViews: Complete Assignment Help Tutorial

Seasonality in time series analysis can be defined as recurring patterns and trends in the data over a specific time intervals (such as weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly). Seasonality plays an important role in forecasting and interpreting the model results. Seasonality factors are taken into account in analyzing sales, stock price data or weather patterns. These patterns, if overlooked, may result into incorrect forecasting and wrongful decisions. For example, a retail store might see a spike in the sales on holiday season. If the seasonality is not taken into account, then the sale forecasting may generate inaccurate results. This is the reason accounting for seasonality becomes important in accurate time series modeling.

To address seasonality, we have the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model available which takes into consideration the seasonal and non-seasonal factors. However, to conduct SARIMA in statistical software like EViews can be challenging and students may make a lot of mistakes that minimizes the accuracy of the forecasting model. This guide will provide a step-by-step tutorial of how to conduct SARIMA modelling using EViews as well as provide examples and recommendations to improve your analysis and forecasting. Further, students can use our EViews assignment help for the reinforcement of the above concept.

What is Seasonal ARIMA Modeling?

The Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model is an extension of the ARIMA model that takes both non-seasonal and seasonal factors into account. While ARIMA models enables capturing trends and autocorrelation in data, SARIMA models also add the seasonality for prediction.

General Form of a SARIMA Model

A SARIMA model is typically expressed as:

SARIMA (p,d,q)×(P,D,Q)s​

Where:

p: Order of non-seasonal autoregression (AR)

d: Degree of non-seasonal differencing (I)

q: Order of non-seasonal moving average (MA)

P: Order of seasonal autoregression (SAR)

D: Degree of seasonal differencing (SI)

Q: Order of seasonal moving average (SMA)

s: Seasonal period (e.g., s = 12 for monthly data with an annual seasonality)

SARIMA models are appropriate for data that shows trend and seasonal pattern, like monthly sales data or quarterly GDP data, which reoccur every year.

Steps for SARIMA Modeling in EViews

Step 1: Plot the Data and Identify Seasonality

The first step in any time series analysis is data visualization in order to inspect for trends and seasonality. Using EViews the data is loaded and the “Graph” function is utilized.

Example: Let us assume that the type of data you are working with is monthly sales. Once you have your data imported into EViews, it is time to generate the plot of the data. In its simplest form, seasonality will be seen if there exists a cycle that recurs after a span of 12 months.

Step 2: Difference the Data to Remove Trends and Seasonality

Before you apply SARIMA, data must be transformed to make it stationary by eliminating the trends and seasonality. In EViews this is done by applying the “Differences” option available in the tool bar.

Non-seasonal differencing (d): If your data shows an upward or downward movement, apply differencing to remove it.

Seasonal differencing (D): If your data has a regular seasonal pattern, apply seasonal differencing (e.g., seasonal difference of order 1 for monthly data would subtract the data from 12 months ago).

In EViews, the differenced series can be created by "Genr" command and indicating the orders of seasonal and non-seasonal difference.

Step 3: Identify Model Orders Using ACF and PACF

To identify the appropriate values for p, d, q, P, D, Q, the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) plots in EViews can be used.

ACF: Helps identify the moving average (MA) and seasonal moving average (SMA) terms.

PACF: Helps identify the autoregressive (AR) and seasonal autoregressive (SAR) terms.

Generate the ACF and PACF plots by selecting View > Correlogram in EViews. Examine these plots to find the lags that are significant for each component.

Step 4: Estimate the SARIMA Model

Once the model orders have been identified, the next step is to estimate the SARIMA model. In EViews, go to Quick > Estimate Equation and specify your model in the following form:

y c ar(1) ma(1) sar(12) sma(12)

In this example:

ar(1) refers to the non-seasonal AR term.

ma(1) refers to the non-seasonal MA term.

sar(12) refers to the seasonal AR term with a lag of 12 periods.

sma(12) refers to the seasonal MA term with a lag of 12 periods.

EViews will the perform the estimation and display the coefficient estimates, standard errors and a number of other diagnostic statistics.

Step 5: Perform Diagnostic Checks

It is imperative that after estimating the model, diagnostic checks are done to check the goodness of the model fit. In EViews, this involves checking:

Residual Autocorrelation: Use the Ljung-Box Q-statistic to ensure the residuals are white noise (i.e., no autocorrelation).

Stationarity: Check for stationarity of data by analyzing the ACF of residuals.

Model Fit: use metrics like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) to compare model performance.

Step 6: Forecasting Using the SARIMA Model

When the model has been well-established, one can then predict future values. To do this in the EViews, choose the Forecast and define the period over which the forecast must be made. Any forecast that is generated using EViews will be accompanied with confidence intervals, which can also be plotted and exported.

Common Mistakes Students Make in Seasonality Analysis Using EViews

Some of the challenges that students experience when it comes to analysing seasonality and building the SARIMA models in EViews include the following. Some common mistakes include:

Failing to Test for Seasonality: One thing that many students fail to consider is to check for seasonality in their data. This leads to the cases of developing inaccurate forecasts.

Overfitting the Model: Some students often include many parameters in the SARIMA model in a bid to capture all the minor fluctuations in the data sets which leads to over-fitting. This makes the model too specific with the historical data and minimizes predictability.

Incorrect Identification of SARIMA Components: Differentiating seasonal and non-seasonal components is significant. Students tend to misconceive these factors and this leads to a wrong specification of the model.

Poor Diagnostic Testing: Upon their estimation of the model, students may also ignore other diagnostic checks such as residual analysis for a better model fit. Not checking the residuals for autocorrelation for instance means students are neglecting the chance to fine tune the model to increase precision.

Misunderstanding EViews Output: Eviews computes and displays loads of statistical information. Without deep understanding of these results students may come up with incorrect insights. For example, failing to interpret the results from p-values of coefficients or misunderstanding the Ljung-Box Q-statistic can lead to wrong conclusions.

How EViews Assignment Help Can Resolve These Problems

To resolve such mistakes and have a clear understanding, students must opt for our EViews assignment help that provides detailed step-by-step solution of eviews coursework assignments with comprehensive explanation of results. Our expert guidance can help you:

Correctly test for presence of seasonality through the use of ACF and PACF.

Understand the right combination of seasonal and non-seasonal components for SARIMA models.

To not over-complicate the model by including few relevant parameters in order to minimize over-fitting.

Interpret the eviews output correctly.

 perform residual diagnostics to check assumptions and make your model more accurate for forecasting.

What You Get with Our EViews Assignment Help

The most on-demand EViews assignment help does not only provide the complete solution of your assignment but also gives you a well-structured and comprehensive report covering all aspects of the analysis. This consists of steps to perform the procedures used in EViews from data import to model estimation and forecasting. You shall also get the EViews work file (.wf1) containing all the command used, the graphs and the output. Moreover, we include annotated screenshots to let you see how we proceeded and the steps applied. We provide insightful interpretations, residual diagnostics and recommendations on model improvement.

Conclusion

Seasonal ARIMA modeling is a powerful tool for analyzing time series data with both trends and seasonality. While learning to apply SARIMA in EViews can be challenging, understanding the model's components, performing correct diagnostic checks, and interpreting results accurately are key steps toward success. By avoiding common mistakes and seeking help when needed, students can master this important technique and improve their forecasting abilities.

Are you looking for help with your Time series assignment? Our knowledgeable eviews homework help tutors are available to support you. Learning SARIMA modeling can be made easy. Contact us for guidance and master time series data analysis. 

Also Read: How To Correctly Interpret Your Eviews Outputs And Assignment Help Tips Helpful Resources and Textbooks

For students searching for textbooks to learn SARIMA modeling, the following texts are recommended:

"Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control" by Box, Jenkins, Reinsel, and Ljung – A foundational text on time series modeling, including SARIMA.

"Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression" by Bruce L. Bowerman, Richard T. O'Connell, and Anne Koehler – A comprehensive guide on time series and forecasting methods.

[tutor-helpdesk]

Explore a summarized comparison of ARCH and GARCH models. Ideal for students seeking eviews assignment guidance on volatility modeling.

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Table of Contents

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[alexistudies]

hey guys! for those of you who may not know me, I am Alexi (@alexistudies) and the long awaited masterpost is FINALLY here on how I study for Organic Chemistry (which i might have to retake lmaooo but that’s a story for a different time). Now, I don’t get the best grades, as my professor’s exams are ridiculously hard, but I have learned the material enough to teach others. If you’re struggling with how to navigate this mind-boggling course that’s pretty much like learning a new language, this post is for YOU! lets gettin it crackin’

Always start by reading the material BUT don’t go in with a cold read (aka just reading the chapter from start to finish) break it into 2 steps: SQ3R and then fully read.

SQ3R: Survey, Question, Read, Recite, Review

disclaimer: personally i do this method by chapter section so I am not overwhelmed with material!

survey: skim the material. read the titles of the sections and subsections, and glance over the actual material within the chapter. take mental note of weird acronyms you may see or vocabulary that stands out. this will prime your brain for all the information you’re going to get when you go the 3R’s.

question: get some sticky notes and write down questions for each section in the textbook. for example, if you just skimmed the section on “Sn1 Reactions”, write a question down on the sticky note like “what does Sn1 mean? what does its mechanism look like?” and stick it in the corresponding place. even if the section seems direct and you don’t have any questions, create one regardless. This will help the information stick! Don’t worry about answering them just yet.

read: pretty self explanatory but read a section of the textbook. read it twice if things still seem fuzzy after the first read, and this time, go slower. now, there should be a sticky note where you wrote a question during the second part of this process. write the answer in to the question based on your knowledge from your reading. also, feel free to take note of any other things that seem to stand out on this sticky note. again, i do this section by section in my textbook so i don’t get burned out or overwhelmed.

recite: once you’ve done the first three steps for the whole chapter, its time to collect all the sticky notes!!! set them down on a flat surface in their chronological order and get prepared with your notebook/tablet and stylus/etc. now you’ll compile all your sticky notes into reading notes! during this stage, read your sticky notes out loud and supplement your reading notes by copying & annotating examples from the textbook.

At this point, you should have already read and done most of the first step. Now, its time to go back through and really engage with the material. As you skim each section, you’ll answer the questions you wrote on the sticky notes! This is pretty self explanatory, I hope. This will make sure that you engage with the material and not just blankly read it. I’m a person who gets bored with textbook reading fairly quickly, this really helps me. Its okay if you don’t fully understand the concepts during this step because you’re just putting your feet in the water.

Still confused on the material? Have some small concepts you just can’t seem to get yet? Its okay! Now, you’ll get auditory/visual exposure which will probably help. I watch The Organic Chemistry Tutor’s videos whenever I feel stuck and I take notes as I watch the video to ensure I’m really paying attention.

This step is to really see how much you know. Start with examples from the book, as the solutions are usually right there and they will walk you through. Then, move on to practice problems. In my textbook, they have exercises that follow right after most examples to practice that same concept. Once you’ve gone through as many of these as you deem fit, you should do the end of chapter problems! These problems tend to be a little more comprehensive and build on things from previous chapters, while also being more conceptual.

pls do your homework. it will reinforce everything. i’ve realized that the homework is not necessarily what will be covered on the exam, but it’s like ... drills to see if you know the basics. but, this really depends on the professor and what they assign as homework! for me, the homework doesn’t even begin to compare to the complexity of the exams. highlight anything you get stuck on and once you’re done, go back and redo those problems + review that section in your notes and textbook!

Review sheets are a life saver because once exams come around, you have one piece of paper you can study from and you don’t have to carry around all your notes! for ochem specifically, i recommend making a reaction sheet that’s a flow-chart (i.e., if i have these reagents, its going to be a hydroboration reaction). this was something i was hoping to do before my final, but i just burned out and never got to it :(( so i need to practice what i preach either when i retake ochem1 or when i move on to ochem2.

bonus tip!

Ask yourself the following questions when you study.

can you name things? (types of reactions, molecules using IUPAC nomenclature, etc)

can you identify things? (stereochemical relationships between molecules, concepts used in a reaction like markovnikov addition, etc)

can you develop things? (desired products for a reaction, etc)

can you interconvert between things? (from wedge dash > newman projection, chair conformation > newman projection, skeletal structure > fischer projection, reaction > energy coordinate diagram)

Hopefully this helps! I enjoyed making this post because I do enjoy organic chemistry, I just really need to do better in the class next semester and better implement these study techniques (and maybe find new ones that work better)!!

[helihi]

Thoughts on RWBY Vol. 7

Quarantine day 20: I finally force myself to re watch volume 7 instead of doing my French homework.

Spoilers ahead for RWBY and How I Met Your Mother (yes).

Volume 7: The Story of a Broken Narrative Kingdom

The day has come where I finally sit down and watch the whole season again. Some of you wondered why I didn’t simply do a The Good, The Bad, and The Dirty review on the last episode of the volume like I did with the previous ones. The answer is the same reason why Ozpin’s speech at the end of the volume encapsulates the volume’s theme as a whole: finales affect the way you look at shows, comics, movies, and books. It provides a framing.

Did any of you watch How I Met Your Mother? For those of you who didn’t, it was a often called the show “which could replace Friends”. Something that you may not know is that fans of the show renamed it something among the lines of “How I should date your Aunt Robin” after the last episode aired. You see, the ending of the show changed the way most viewers see the show in the present.

The show had main character Ted Mosby narrate to his children how he met their mother. However, the story doesn’t begin during the day that encountered happen; no, it starts years before, when Ted declares he wants to settle down and find the love of his life. In that very same episode, he meets Robin Scherbatsky. In the end it’s revealed that the mother (the character we spent years speculating about) is dead (which I expected), and Ted asks his children if they give him the blessing to date their Aunt Robin. Originally, the fans could excuse episode 1 centering around Robin because it was the instance where Ted decided he wanted to settle down, but after the veil was lifted; there were no excuses, this whole story was a Ted’s way of convincing their children he should marry Robin, the main woman in his life during the whole show (even if we spend the last season on her wedding with one of Ted’s best friends).

Perhaps the ending of Volume 7 didn’t destroy the character development of 3 main characters, but it drastically changed the way I felt about the volume.

“The Kingdom of Atlas will remain safe, that’s my promise”- James Ironwood, Volume 7, Episode 1.

If you go back in my blog and read my reviews for most of the volume, you will find glowing ratings and stars. Anyone that knows me, knows that I love a good politics game in the shows/stories I read, so I was really excited when the writing team started developing that during the first half of the season.

Our gang (RWBY+JNOR+Q+M) reach Atlas after finding out that Oz is a fraud, that Salem cannot be beat (by Oz), and that Cinder almost took another maiden’s power. They quickly realize that Atlas is in a state of chaos and Ironwood is consumed by fear taking authoritarian measures, which keep the kingdom divided.

The stage is set:

 Ironwood, Winter, and the Ace Ops.

Robyn, the Happy Huntresses, and Mantle.

 Watts, Jacques, and Tyrian.

I thought the way everything was set was fantastic, I loved the political drama, and I thought the writers were taking their time properly. Even now I give huge kudos to the Schnee storyline, which is my favorite. The volume showed us how flawed Winter’s coping mechanism is, how Weiss is still susceptible to her father’s gaslighting and manipulation, and how the household isn’t just broken by Jacques (Willow apologists, pls read this).

However, the cracks started showing during the first episodes and I noted that on my reviews. We have characters used for exposition dump: from the Robyn supporter, that explains what we could’ve learned by the normal progression of the story, who gets killed as soon as he returns home, and other characters like Maria talking about Pietro while he’s standing right there.

In contrast to that, we get wonderful montages which show the passage of time. The kids interact with one another and the Ace Ops, they train, they help with Ironwood’s plan. It seems weird to have 2 different tools one after the other.

Also, it it weird for anyone that Qrow and Winter only interact 1 time during episode 2 when in Volume 3 a clear rivalry was established? Winter’s storyline was supposed to follow Penny’s, while Qrow was supposed to grow attached to Clover. Because these 2 characters had to reach a certain point in the story, they are not allowed to deviate from the interactions needed for the plot to advance.

Another thing occurred to me while re-watching the season again... Why is Ironwood so fixated in protecting Atlas when it’s floating in the air away from Grimm? Yes, we know that some Grimm can fly, but by the many times we see Mantle in chaos, you would think Ironwood would repair Mantle’s wall to keep it safe?

That’s the theme, guys, girls and nonbinary folks: a kingdom divided.

Just like the Atlas kingdom falls apart, the narrative of Volume 7 has a specific breaking point that marks the decline in quality (you can see that in my reviews). The moment everything went downhill starts in Episode 8, with the dinner at the Schnee Manor.

We spend much time developing the political tensions of the volume for Jacques to be promptly arrested and taken away from the scene in a second.

While Ironwood, Winter, Penny, and Clover are shown doing plot relevant stuff, team JNOR does that ridiculous gag to get Whitley out of Weiss’s hair.  The rest of the team do jackshit, and we don’t hear anything from them until everything is over. Again, the writers reached the plot point and forgot about everything else.

Also, Ruby looks sadly at Weiss when Whitley mentions that Klein was “let go”, yet Weiss has never talked about him to Ruby on screen. Claiming Weiss could’ve done that off screen strips away the possibilities of Weiss bonding with Ruby the same way she did with Yang when talking about their pain during Volume 5.

Such a large table, and only 4 council members, isn’t that kind of stupid? I mean, if Ironwood had 2 seats, numbers wise it makes sense, but who are those other 2 supposed to represent? Why haven’t we seen them before?

Robyn is told by Yang and Blake that Ironwood doesn't know who to trust. She proceeds to pressure him in front of people he clearly doesn’t trust. This is the first instance of OOC Robyn.

The walls crumbled, and everything became obvious as a viewer. Some other notable flaws:

Tension jojoing. The people in mantle will revolt! Except they aren’t. This happens in Episode 5, 6, and 9. The only real uprising is the last one. The other two were silly cliff hangers that make no sense when you watch the show again. (they didn’t make sense before either  and I complained).

Hey there, Watts! You may have an interesting backstory, except it’s only implied you are pissed off Penny got chosen as a major project instead of whatever yours was. Also, Paladin incident? What? If he is the main villain of the Volume, why not expand on him? I shouldn’t be surprised, Hazel and Tyrian are not that complex. And Cinder? It’s been 5 volumes and we barely know anything about her haha.

Robin! I love how civilized and smart you are when the volume started, choosing to observe and talk instead of acting against the main characters. How awful is it that you forget to keep your calm when a Serial killer is on the loose. It would be a shame if someone were to... die.

I already gave my 2 cents over Clover’s death, and I’m not going to repeat myself. I am sorry to all the Fair Game fans, I’m afraid bury your gays is till alive and well.

The nail on the coffin is the final episode: after making a speech about how Salem wants to divide people and how the only way to go is to remain united, James does the exact opposite thing the moment something doesn’t go according to plan. Don’t get me wrong, his PTSD regarding the queen chess piece was foreshadowed, but the moment team RWBY offer an explanation and identify the person behind it, he’s to far gone. Then, Salem shows up, and goes for Team RWBY when Ruby gets under her skin. This shows that Salem has a weakness and that Team RWBY can be trusted when it comes to defeating her, yet that is promptly ignored.

Also, Ironwood might be hurt about Yang and Blake talking to Robyn, but after everything, they were proven right: Robyn is to be trusted, Ironwood was making a mistake.

The whole setting up a trap to attract Tyrian wasn’t Ironwood going “mad with power” or something. Robyn knew he has lying and allowed Ironwood to catch someone who could hack everything. Not only that, but the camera zoomed in on Ironwood, so nobody could see Robyn’s handy Semblance going red. Or... maybe I’m looking too much into it and the writers expected you to forget.

Sorry, I guess James Ironwood had to take a bunch of stupid pills.

“I wish it didn’t have to end this way.” - Clover Ebi.

“It doesn’t have to, but the writers need that Branwen angst.” - Qrow Branwen.

Volume 7: Part 1 of the Atlas Arc

Have you ever heard of Checov’s gun? It is a dramatic principle that states that every element in a story must be necessary, and irrelevant elements should be removed. Elements should not appear to make "false promises" by never coming into play. Let’s play a game called the false promises of the volume that may carry over to volume 8?

Renora: Nora sides with Robin, Ren sides with Ironwood. They do not communicate with one another and the tension builds throughout the volume. They kiss, nothing gets resolved. Ren cries when Neo turns into Nora.

Training: Ren is shown to throw himself into the enemy as a flaw, he repeats the same mistake when fighting with Neo. Oscar’s Semblance is questioned, nothing comes out of it. Ruby’s Semblance is questioned, nothing comes out of it.

Cinder got beef with Atlas? For some reason, Cinder talks about Atlas hoarding power when speaking with Winter. Bitch, where the fuck do you come from? Who are you? Do I know you? Sorry, the writers forgot to write a growth arc for you. My bad.

Nora, daughter of Atlas? Can someone explain to me why she became a SWJ (/s) during this season? We never get a backstory of her previous to Kuroyuri and for some reason Nora is super attached to the people of Mantle. The daughter of Atlas title was thrown around, why?

It’s so nice to see tea FNKI back! Too bad they are there for 5 minutes and never show up again, not even when Mantle is supposed to be defended by all huntsmen. I guess this was fan service.

What’s the purpose of the Happy Huntresses? Isn’t it funny how the only one who got wounded by Tyrian is the only character who could see in the dark, but didn’t tell Robin that Penny wasn’t guilty? Hi Fiona, I don’t know why you exist.

Marrow: the butt of the joke. Since the first episodes, Marrow is shown as the outsider inside the Ace Ops: his teammates don’t take him seriously, Ironwood doesn’t think Marrow is up to the challenge of some missions, and he’s the only Faunus, the only one that seemed to sympathize with Robyn at the end. Too bad he wasn’t allowed to break his mold.

The World Building looks pretty, but it doesn't play the part.

I have to praise the art direction of this season. I was blown away by the aesthetics of Mantle clashing with Atlas, the details in the backgrounds, the world building by back messaging, screens, and posters. My favorite scene of the volume is the penguins in the tundra.

However, you have to walk the walk, and the writing team failed to deliver.

Racism: hey, I know you guys kinda messed up the White Fang’s internal struggles and opportunity to expand on Adam’s power grab and Sienna’s leadership, but maybe don’t skip the racist elements of Atlas? All we get are Faunus mine workers looking angry, that drunk dude who yelled at Blake and Marrow making a simplistic comment about politics. What...? What’s the point of acknowledging u are bad at writing racism and then do nothing about it? Did none of the new writers know how to tackle this?

In-World Continuity: Hey, wasn't the Vytal festival broadcasted to the entire world? When I saw that camera focusing on Yang on episode 1, I thought there would be a call back to what everyone saw her do during the finals, but nope. Let’s not bring that up again. ever. The only important thing about the Vytal Festival is the tower, move on.

Weapons upgrade: We were told that weapons were an extension of each huntsmen; too bad none of our gang actually work on them. Pietro makes all the modifications and repairs. I remember the bumblebee fans eager for a scene of Blake repairing Gambol Shroud, don’t tell me you’re not disappointed.

Atlas ball: not found. Hey! We have Jacques Schnee celebrating his fake victory on the elections! It would be a perfect moment to showcase the disconnect between what’s happening in Mantle and what the people in atlas thing. Too bad we didn’t wanna make extra character models.

--

Closing thoughts

I wanted to re watch the whole season again to see if the bitterness left on my lips after watching that chaotic finale went away, but it only grew. There are so many character choices that made no sense, so many scenes where characters stood around in the background doing nothing.

WHY THE FUCK DID OZPIN ONLY APPEAR AT THE END?

Oh, I’ll tell you why: he needed to give a speech about themes to justify the stupidity that happened during the last episodes to get to that cliff hanger.

I am disappointed in volume that seemed to be doing so good at the begging, but hey... at this point we shouldn’t be surprised, should we? Interestingly enough, the people who dreamed about the ball and the scenes of Blake fixing Gambol Shroud grew quiet after the episodes aired... 

Almost as if criticism wasn’t allowed on the RWBY tag.

AN: The titty window isn’t justified Salem, your ex is now a child that’s PEDO—

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