#delayed dash commentary

[luckykatstravels]

"So... Back when I fought the guy who was Champion before me, I started the battle pulling my punches. When he realized how easily I was keeping up with his pace, he yelled at me to go all out. So I did, and demolished the room. Afterwards, he told me the importance of always going all out in a battle to show respect for my opponent."

"Nobody wants to lose to someone who isn't trying."

[in-toxi-cant]

"So~... What was that about tits out fo' New Year's~?" While technically not part of the right crowd for this dose of shenanigans... And not doing himself any favors by playing into certain 'rumors' by going along with it-- That's not about to stop a certain spider from displaying his own helping of assets~♡

[lunarscaled]

-> The devils can trans your gender?

[charlotte-liddel]

// @lostusagis

She's perceived both the siblings for a while, and still is at a distance. It's just now she's stopped being so subtle about it and is out in the open. Respectfully, though, of course.

[take-ya-to-the-ghey-bar]

{it might take a hot minute before I can actually reply to it, but— I still feel the need to mention that both myself and Micchan have been ended by the ask redo which has graced the dash earlier 💀}

[desires-of-sin]

"It would be nice if I could get a body as fit and in shape as that...but that would require lots of workouts...."

[marchofprogress]

Of course she's hesitant. They'll have to wisen her up to the idea overtime, as expected. She'll learn.

[vixlenxe]

"Holy shit, he's alive!?!?"

[king-scourge]

"Very funny blue.."

[mahoushoujoumonster-x]

She’s just going to keep quiet for the rest of the day.

Sigh. At least she has plenty to consume as she watches the day go by.

[lykofxs]

Confused BORK?!?

Inhales.

"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!"

[unyieldingstar]

"Oh right yeah Mother's day is a thing isn't it..."

[spacetimewithstuartgary]

Charting the Exceptional, Unexpected Heat of 2023 and 2024

In 2024, global temperatures for June through August were the hottest on record, narrowly topping the same period in 2023. The exceptional heat extended throughout other seasons, too, with global temperatures breaking records for 15 straight months from June 2023 until August 2024, according to scientists from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

Although this spell of record heat fits within a long-term warming trend driven by human activity—primarily greenhouse gas emissions—the intensity of the heat, which reached a crescendo in the last half of 2023, surprised leading climate scientists. In a commentary in Nature, Gavin Schmidt, the director of GISS, used words like “humbling” and “confounding” to explain just how far temperatures overshot expectations during that period.

The charts on this page show how much global temperatures in 2023 and 2024 diverged from expectations based on NASA’s temperature record. Roughly a year later, Schmidt and other climatologists are still trying to understand why.

“Warming in 2023 was head-and-shoulders above any other year, and 2024 will be as well,” Schmidt said. “I wish I knew why, but I don’t. We’re still in the process of assessing what happened and if we are seeing a shift in how the climate system operates.”

Setting Expectations

Earth’s air and ocean temperatures during a given year typically reflect a combination of long-term trends, such as those associated with climate change, and shorter-term influences, such as volcanic activity, solar activity, and the state of the ocean.

In late 2022, as he has done each year since 2016, Schmidt used a statistical model to project global temperatures for the coming year. La Niña—which cools sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific—was present for the first part of 2023 and should have taken the edge off global temperatures. Schmidt calculated that average 2023 global temperatures would reach about 1.22 degrees Celsius above the baseline, putting it in the top three or four warmest years, but that it would not be a record-breaking year. Scientists at the UK Met Office, Berkeley Earth, and Carbon Brief made similar assessments using a variety of methods.

This chart shows Schmidt’s expectation for how much monthly temperatures from January 2023 to August 2024 would differ from NASA’s 1951-1980 baseline (also known as an anomaly). The expectation (represented as the dashed line in the chart) was based on an equation that calculates global average temperature based on the most recent 20-year rate of warming (about 0.25°C per decade) and NOAA’s sea surface temperature measurements from the tropical Pacific, accounting for a three-month delay for these temperatures to affect the global average. The shaded area shows the range of variability (plus or minus two standard deviations).

“More complex global climate models are helpful to predict long-term warming, but statistical models like these help us project year-to-year variability, which is often dominated by El Niño and La Niña events,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the University of California, Berkeley. Hausfather helps produce the Berkeley Earth global temperature record and also generates annual predictions of global temperature changes based on those data.

Schmidt’s statistical model—which successfully predicted the global average temperature every year since 2016—underestimated the exceptional heat in 2023, as did the methods used by Hausfather and other climatologists. Schmidt expected global temperature anomalies to peak in February or March 2024 as a lagged response to the additional warming from El Niño. Instead, the anomalous heat emerged well before El Niño had peaked. And the heat came with unexpected intensity—first in the North Atlantic Ocean and then virtually everywhere.

“In September, the record was broken by an absolutely astonishing 0.5 degrees Celsius,” Schmidt said. “That has not happened before in the GISS record.”

The chart above shows how global temperatures calculated from January 2023 to August 2024 differed from NASA’s baseline (1951–1980). The previous record temperature anomalies for each month—set in 2016 and 2020—are indicated by the red dashed line. Starting in June 2023, temperatures exceeded previous records by 0.3 to 0.5°C every month. Although temperature anomalies in 2024 were closer to past anomalies, they continued to break records through August 2024. The global average temperature in September 2024 was 1.26°C above NASA’s baseline—lower than September 2023 but still 0.3°C above any September in the record prior to 2023.

To calculate Earth’s global average temperature changes, NASA scientists analyze data from tens of thousands of meteorological stations on land, plus thousands of instruments on ships and buoys on the ocean surface. The GISS team analyzes this information using methods that account for the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and for urban heating effects that could skew the calculations.

Investigating Possible Contributors

Since May 2024, Schmidt has been compiling research about possible contributors to the unexpected warmth, including changes in greenhouse gas emissions, incoming radiation from the Sun, airborne particles called aerosols, and cloud cover, as well as the impact of the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption. However, none of these factors provide what Schmidt and other scientists consider a convincing explanation for the unusual heat in 2023.

Atmospheric greenhouse gas levels have continued to rise, but Schmidt estimates that the extra load since 2022 only accounted for additional warming of about 0.02°C. The Sun was nearing peak activity in 2023, but its roughly 11-year cycle is well measured and not enough to explain the temperature surge either.

Major volcanic eruptions, such as El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, have caused brief periods of global cooling in the past by lofting aerosols into the stratosphere. And research published in 2024 indicates the eruption in Tonga had a net cooling effect in 2022 and 2023. “If that’s the case, there’s even more warming in the system that needs to be explained,” Schmidt said.

Another possible contributor is reduced air pollution. A research team led by Tianle Yuan, an atmospheric research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has found a significant drop in aerosol pollution from shipping since 2020. The drop coincides with new international regulations on sulfur content in shipping fuels and with sporadic drops in shipping due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Sulfur aerosol emissions promote the formation of bright clouds that reflect incoming sunlight back to space and have a net cooling effect. Reducing this pollution has the opposite effect: clouds are less likely to form, which could warm the climate. Although scientists, including Yuan, generally agree that the drop in sulfur emissions likely caused a net warming in 2023, the scientific community continues to debate the precise size of the effect.

“All of these factors explain, perhaps, a tenth of a degree in warming,” Schmidt said. “Even after taking all plausible explanations into account, the divergence between expected and observed annual mean temperatures in 2023 remains near 0.2°C—roughly the gap between the previous and current annual record.”

Grappling With Uncertainty

Both Hausfather and Schmidt expressed concern that these unexpected temperature changes could signal a shift in how the climate system functions. It could also be some combination of climate variability and a change in the system, Schmidt said. “It doesn’t have to be an either-or.”

One of the biggest uncertainties in the climate system is how aerosols affect cloud formation, which in turn affects the amount of radiation reflected back to space. However, one challenge for scientists trying to piece together what happened in 2023 is the lack of updated global aerosol emissions data. “Reliable assessments of aerosol emissions depend on networks of mostly volunteer-driven efforts, and it could be a year or more before the full data from 2023 are available,” Schmidt said.

NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) satellite, which launched in February 2024, could help shed light on these uncertainties. The satellite will help scientists make a global assessment of the composition of various aerosol particles in the atmosphere. PACE data may also help scientists understand cloud properties and how aerosols influence cloud formation, which is essential to creating accurate climate models.

Schmidt and Hausfather invite scientists to discuss research related to the contributors of the 2023 heat at a session they are convening at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in Washington, D.C., on December 9–13, 2024.

NASA Earth Observatory map and charts by Michala Garrison, based on data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Climate spiral visualization by Mark SubbaRao, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Scientific Visualization Studio. Story by Emily Cassidy.

[inventors-fair]

The Best of the Rest: NPC Winners ~

Our winners this week are @helloijustreadyourpost, @izzet-always-r-versus-u, and @sparkyyoungupstart!

@helloijustreadyourpost — Vicious Headcrab from the Half-Life series

Immediately, this has got to be one of the cleanest transitions from other media to a magic card, full stop. Or, it's the cleanest that I recognize enough to confidently state as such. Still, this is at its core a very simple and intuitive card that does something extremely unusual, which always catches my eye. It's a tricky proposition to have a 1/3 defeat anything in combat without tossing in an extra card, but given how much of an upgrade the token is combined with the occasional upside of exiling a key creature, I'd say that this number of hoops to jump through is perfectly warranted. The necessity of sacrificing the headcrab also helps enforce a sense of fairness, as you can't simply slap deathtouch on it and trade up with something far larger. At this very least, though, this creepy critter preys on tokens all day long.

@izzet-always-r-versus-u — Lycan Blood Hunter from Critical Role

The first thing that immediately interest me about this one is just how distinct it is from every other werewolf we've seen so far. Nowadays more than ever, Magic's werewolves are pretty set in their ways, and barring a thematic shakeup from an as-yet unexplored plane, that's not liable to change. Leave it to Universes Beyond to pick up the slack, and offer glimpses into other fantasy worlds where familiar types appear in unfamiliar places. The "transformation" being tied to being under half your life is a great move, I must say, and the idea of literally bleeding yourself to produce blood tokens is so clever that I was shocked to learn that no such card already existed. Part of me wishes this also lost its Human type when it's "transformed" like fellow D&D-related card Werewolf Pack Leader, but that's a minor blemish on an otherwise sterling card.

@sparkyyoungupstart — Hiss Distorted from Control

I mean this in the best way possible, but: what? Having no knowledge whatsoever of the source material, I can really only guess as to what's going on here, but what I do understand has me absolutely fascinated. The creature type alone is a standout, but that's hardly enough to get it to the winner's circle. No, it's here because of that effect, and oh, what an effect! Reconfiguring foretell into a bizarre mirror-universe version of dash is quite the move, to be sure. Utilizing the inherent turn delay of foretell to justify the absurd power by forcing the card to be foretold even more so. It does somewhat lose the element of surprise that characterizes foretell after the first time, but it hardly needs it (and it wouldn't even be the first. Looking at you, Foretold Soldier). There is one slight concern that I can't rightly ignore, though. I'm not entirely sure if this was your intention or not, but due to the underlying mechanics of foretell, you can foretell it during your end phase after it returns to hand, meaning that every cast of it past the first is every turn rather than every other one. If that's not intentional, it necessitates moving the self-bounce later into the turn cycle, such as during your upkeep. If it is, I would recommend maybe moving it earlier in the turn instead, such as after combat. It wouldn't change the functionality, but it would make the card easier to understand, as that interaction is something a lot of players are liable to miss their first time playing with the card.

~

Runners will be up before too long, with commentary later today. @spooky-bard

[roccinan]

So happy to see you back on the dash!!! Welcome back! And as always, THANK YOU for writing it in the first place, and thank you for all your generous words about the playlist, I'm so so so glad you enjoyed it <3 Don't worry about the delay at all, I never expected this much of a reply omg, made my day in a miserable month! I'm relieved to know we have similar, eclectic music tastes haha, and that you liked the instrumentals I chose. While I read your thoughts about the songs, I listened to it again and I had some thoughts to share and references to tell you about... and then my hand slipped. Oops. Evidently I still have many hermanos thoughts in 2024 and I'm so glad you're still here to share them with! (obligatory apology for the mini essay to follow and ofc, please reply at your leisure)

Thanks, friend! It's nice to be back :) As sporadic as I'm being! I've thanked so many times, but really, I'm always so happy to have your support for my obscure hermanos fics :'D And I'm glad to have helped make your day! Your messages were sitting in my inbox for a whole year asdfasdf but they brought me joy whenever I looked at them.

YES we have such similar niche tastes it's unbelievable XD And received your commentary about the song choices too :D Will answer when I can, but please know I loved reading them and it was such a fun thing to see.

I will always have the hermanos in mind and having you to share them with is a blessing :D

[vixlenxe]

After evaluating the situation, Zero agrees with Ren. It's fucked up to lie about your health.