#connectography mapping the future of global civilization

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Belt and Road Initiatives

Belt and Road Initiatives

Oleh: Ricky Suwarno

27 April 2019

Presiden China Xi Jinping menjadi tuan rumah bagi 37 kepala negara dan pemerintah di forum Belt and Road kedua, yang sedang diadakan di Beijing sekarang. Dimulai dari 25-27 April. Forum ini diharapkan akan menghasilkan lebih banyak kesepakatan bagi perusahaan, bank dan Negara yang menginginkan proyek mega-proyek Silk Road di dunia.

Parag Khanna, peneliti di Bruce…

[xtruss]

Anyone Who Wants To Be President Needs To Understand These 5 Maps

Parag Khanna, "Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization" Jul 4, 2017 | Business Insider

Maps shape how we see the world. But most of the maps hanging on our walls are dangerously incomplete because they emphasize political borders rather than functional connections.

The world has less than 500,000 kilometers of borders. By comparison, it has 64 million km of highways, 4 million km of railways, 2 million km of pipelines and more than 1 million km of Internet cables ­­all part of a rapidly expanding global infrastructural Matrix.

As such, in the 21st century, we need maps that show connections over divisions, for these reveal not only how we cooperate across borders, but also the valuable corridors of energy, trade and data that we compete over.

Here are 5 of the most important maps for the future. The next president would be wise to study them carefully.

This post was originally written in April 2016. These maps are part of a set designed exclusively for the publication of Parag Khanna's new book, "Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization."

Here Is The Map Donald Trump Doesn’t Seem To Understand.

Here is the map Donald Trump doesn’t seem to understand. No matter what walls he may seek to expand along the Mexican border, the truth is that both the Mexican and American populations along the border have risen by 20 percent in the past decade.

Why? Because business is booming between Mexico’s fast-­growing market and American businesses. That’s not all. Even though the XL pipeline failed, there are already dozens of freight rails, pipelines, electricity grids and trade corridors that unite the US, Canada, and Mexico, which has just welcomed huge American investment to modernize its oil industry. American car companies are thriving in Mexican factories, but this is actually creating American jobs producing high­quality auto­parts.

Now fast forward and think about droughts caused by climate change wiping out much of America’s breadbasket region. It turns out that Canada will be the world’s largest food producer as temperatures rise and its permafrost thaws, meaning it will become America’s principal source of both food and freshwater through the massive hydro­canals featured in this map. Americans should embrace the emergence of a genuine North American Union.

China Is Now The Top Trade Partner For Twice As Many Countries As America.

Globalization has catapulted China to superpower status. It is now the top trade partner for twice as many countries (124) as America (56). While many strategists focus on China’s mostly regional military maneuvers, the supply chain complementarities it has built worldwide are the true source of its leverage.

China may have only one aircraft carrier, but it operates by far the world’s largest merchant navy of more than one thousand tankers and shipping vessels that ply these global trade routes. Even as China’s imports slow, it continues to be the fastest growing global investor, boosting its ownership of factories and ports, banks and telecoms along these same axes, so don’t bet on its influence diminishing just because its growth has decelerated.

What this map also reveals is that even as the US pursues a TPP trade agreement with many Asian countries other than China, it may yet benefit China, which will use its strong linkages into these economies to create joint ventures that more easily access the US market without forcing its own companies to reform the way TPP requires.

Does It Really Make Sense For America To Be Organized As 50 States Anymore?

Does it really make sense for America to be organized as 50 states anymore? Countries from China to Italy to France and Great Britain are all reorganizing themselves around viable urban centers, metropolitan regions centered on large and productive cities. America needs to do the same.

This map shows how the US is actually made up of about seven distinct economic regions, each with anchor cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago or New York. Rather than rich states, paying taxes to Washington which then gives meager hand­outs to poor states, America’s economic system ­­and even politics ­­could be rearranged to reflect this reality of mega­urban corridors and their dependent regions. At the same time, America’s strength comes from connecting efficiently across this vast scale, hence the need for high­speed rail networks crisscrossing the continent to form a much more dynamic United City ­States of America.

The Grand Strategy America Will Find Very Difficult To Contain.

The Chinese­-led Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB) was not just a big geopolitical story of 2015, but it will be in 2020 and 2025 as well. More than 60 countries have signed on to China’s plan to build “iron Silk Roads” from Shanghai to Lisbon. President Obama badly misplayed the Bank’s launch, choosing to oppose it.

But in the decade ahead, these mega-projects that extend Chinese influence from Russia to Turkey will continue. This map shows many of the potential oil and pipelines, railways, electricity grids, water canals and other infrastructures emerging from Korea to Iran, bringing to life how even though China has more neighbors than any country in the world, and has serious tensions with many of them, its long-term strategy is to pave across them to access their resources and markets rather than invade them.

This is the kind of grand strategy America will find very difficult to contain ­especially since all of the countries involved actually want these projects to continue. Indeed, Europeans are among the biggest beneficiaries due to their large engineering companies winning big contracts.

As European trade with China nearly equals that with the US, connectivity across Eurasia is starting to compete with culture across the Atlantic. Students are taught that Europe and Asia are two continents, but 21st century infrastructure is making it one efficiently connected landmass.

The Mideast Needs A Whole New Map — One Focused On Connectivity Rather Than Division.

The Middle East continues to crumble, and the next American administration may inherit an even wider swatch of crises. Jordan, Lebanon and even Saudi Arabia could fail through a combination of ISIS attacks and the oil price collapse.

Exactly a century after the Sykes­-Picot agreement that created the Mideast’s artificial borders, the region needs a whole new map, one focused on connectivity rather than division. Indeed, almost all the 400 million people of the Arab world live in cities, thus the Arab map should be much more one of connected oases than divided tribes.

This map shows the many current, half-­built and potential pipelines, water canals and electricity grids that can correct Arab societies’ vast mismatches between those that are water­rich and water­poor, energy­rich and energy­poor. Instead of letting the Arab Spring become a Thirty Years War, now is the time to get Europeans and China, Iranians and Turks, and even Israel involved in building the infrastructures Arab societies need to create jobs, diversify their economies, stabilize the region and contribute to trade and energy security worldwide.

— Source: Connectography | Parag Khanna, Connectography

[cognify]

A Internet não tem fronteiras, mas existe uma geografia?

Há alguns dias escrevemos um artigo entitulado "onde estão as fronteiras?", que nos serviu como introito para este e próximos artigo  que tratam do confuso cenário introduzido pela Internet no que diz respeito a fronteiras nacionais, poder soberano das Nações e batalhas travadas no ciberespaço.

Fazendo uma comparação grosseira entre o total de fronteiras no mundo e a distância total percorrida por cabos submarinos que interconectam os continentes suportando a Internet temos, de acordo com Parag Khanna, autor do livro "Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization", 500 mil Km de fronteiras contra 1 milhão de Km de cabos de Internet. A título de curiosidade o nome do livro é uma contração das palavras connectivity e geography. 

Aproveitando a ideia desenvolvida no artigo da semana passada,John Lennon estaria feliz com esta informação. Pela utopia criada em sua música Imagine, o astro pop sonhava com uma união global e já temos hoje, o dobro do comprimento de cabos que unem povos em comparação com a distância das fronteiras que os separam. A música de Lennon em certos momentos parece um roteiro visionário para um cenário de união e compartilhamento global provida pela Internet. Porém em outros, não representa nem de longe o que realmente acontece no ciberespaço.

Numa tentativa  de representar geográficamente o ciber espaço, apelamos para um excelente pesquisa recente realizada pelo Defcon Lab, que mapeou os hosts IPv4 pelo mundo e traduziu este mapeamento com o seguinte mapa de calor:

Este mapa apresenta pontos com concentração mínima de 100 registros. Os detalhes da metodologia podem ser conferidos em https://www.defcon-lab.org/world-ipv4-map/.

Apesar de toda essa geografia, as guerras que ocorrem na grande rede mundial não são travadas territorialmente. Nos dias de hoje dados são um bem muito mais precioso do que terras. Em muitos casos é bem difícil inclusive definir o ponto inicial de um ataque dada a identificação de uma batalha em curso. E mesmo quando se encontra um ponto tal de origem, não necessariamente significa que a responsabilidade pelo ataque provém do responsável por aquele host. Considerar esta dificuldade esclarece o quão difícil pode ser responsabilizar uma Nação por um ciberataque.

Em 2009, o site do Festival Internacional de Artes de Melbourne (MIAF) foi hackeado, aparentemente por nacionalistas chineses que protestavam contra a chegada da exilada líder uigur Rebiya Kadeer à Austrália. A caracterização da origem chinesa foi dado por uma pixação digital feita no site, apresentando uma bandeira chinesa, conforme abaixo:

 Mas isto garante que tenha havido alguma orquestração do Estado Chinês? O governo da China, é claro, negou seu envolvimento. A pergunta mais difícil de ser respondida para casos desta natureza é: que evidências são necessárias para caracterizar uma ação de Estado com repercussões sobre a soberania de outro Estado na Internet? Alguém se arriscaria em estabelecer critérios mínimos? Comentários serão bem vindos!

Muito do que se sabe sobre o envolvimento militar chinês em eventos maliciosos ocorridos na Internet foi exposto por um trabalho realizado pela empresa de  Mandiant*, que publicou um relatório em Fevereiro de 2013 apresentando indícios que implicavam diretamente a China em ações de ciberespionagem. A Mandiant analisou atividades da Unidade 61398 do Exército Popular de Libertação da China que, de acordo com o relatório, atacou 141 empresas durante um período de sete anos, visando qualquer propriedade intelectual que pudesse encontrar.

Conforme a publicação, durante esse período, a Unidade 61398 roubou centenas de terabytes de dados, às vezes ao longo de um período de anos. A Mandiant elaborou um perfil dessa unidade, que emprega centenas de funcionários com diversas habilidades técnicas e linguísticas. Foi capaz de identificar indivíduos específicos dentro da unidade e as responsabilidades de trabalho que cada um deles tinha.

No caso da análise da unidade 61398 da Mandiant, todos os ataques analisados foram originados em Xangai. Mas uma análise para identificação de um ataque advindo de um grupo específico envolve a criação de uma “impressão digital” dos hackers de forma a distinguir um grupo de todos os outros. Esse processo analisa os métodos e ferramentas que os hackers usam para entrar nos sistemas, quais informações eles escolhem tomar e os cuidados que eles exercem para desabilitar os alarmes e remover qualquer evidência. É uma tarefa extremamente complexa e que, mesmo bem feita, dá margem a controvérsia na sua conclusão.

Conforme falamos, a origem do ataque não é capaz de denunciar o grupo mal feitor. Em outro ataque atribuído a hackers chineses, o Escritório de Administração de Pessoal dos EUA foi invadido, resultando no roubo de informações pessoais sobre 22 milhões de funcionários do governo dos EUA. O grupo usou servidores baseados nos EUA para seus ataques. 

Como as técnicas dos hackers mudam constantemente à medida que trabalham para ficar à frente dos que tentam identificá-las é bastante difícil de se estabelecer uma "impressão digital" fidedigna. Se em dado momento sabe-se que determinado grupo utiliza um conjunto específico de malwares identificáveis, isto não quer dizer que num momento posterior eles continuem a ser utilizados. Aliás, é mais provável que se modifiquem, pela própria necessidade do ataque, já que as defesas se adaptam ao que se torna conhecido.

Até certo ponto, todos os hackers são parecidos. Eles podem ser identificados como não falantes de inglês, mas identificá-los como chineses depende do rastreamento de uma fonte que não está localizada apenas na China. É preciso demonstrar que o usuário usava um teclado chinês ou tinha o idioma do computador definido como chinês etc, ainda quem nem mesmo tudo isto sirva como uma garantia 100%.

Identificar hackers como chineses não garante também que ajam a partir de uma ação governamental. Porém o governo chinês nunca se mobilizou para deter esses grupos e aparentemente não os entregaria aos governos ocidentais para julgamento.

Além disso, é inteiramente possível que hackers de outros países possam utilizar servidores chineses como outra camada de cobertura para suas próprias atividades. Seria tolice acreditar que apenas o governo chinês está envolvido em ataques patrocinados pelo Estado, já que todos os governos têm interesse em espionagem comercial, militar e, em alguns casos até, simples influência política.

Infelizmente, parece que o sonho de Lennon de um cenário pacífico a partir de um mundo sem fronteiras se torna mais distante. Esta nova guerra, sem fronteiras estabelecidas, comparativamente às guerras convencionais territoriais, estabelece uma dificuldade adicional em termos de estabelecimento de um tratado de Paz que ajuste os ponteiros entre os países e resolva o contencioso. Em muitos casos sequer existe um contencioso claro, ou seja, "essa guerra tá na paz".

* A Mandiant foi adquirida em dezembro de 2013 pela FireEye.

[talabib]

TED Tuesday: Emerging Markets

On TED Tuesday, we will share videos that will inspire you to be a better leader. Learn from thought leaders on subjects of leadership and success. This week, we will share videos on emerging  markets.  Hope these videos make your day

How do we build a society without fossil fuels? Using her native Costa Rica as an example of positive action on environmental protection and renewables, climate advocate Monica Araya outlines a bold vision for a world committed to clean energy in all sectors.

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We are embarrassingly unaware of how divided our societies are, and Brexit grew out of a deep, unexamined divide between those that fear globalization and those that embrace it, says social scientist Alexander Betts. How do we now address that fear as well as growing disillusionment with the political establishment, while refusing to give in to xenophobia and nationalism? Join Betts as he discusses four post-Brexit steps toward a more inclusive world.

Economic growth has been slowing for the past 50 years, but relief might come from an unexpected place -- a new form of manufacturing that is neither what you thought it was nor where you thought it was. Industrial systems thinker Olivier Scalabre details how a fourth manufacturing revolution will produce a macroeconomic shift and boost employment, productivity and growth.

What does the world look like when you map it using data? Social geographer Danny Dorling invites us to see the world anew, with his captivating and insightful maps that show Earth as it truly is -- a connected, ever-changing and fascinating place in which we all belong. You'll never look at a map the same way again.

"I want you to reimagine how life is organized on earth," says global strategist Parag Khanna. As our expanding cities grow ever more connected through transportation, energy and communications networks, we evolve from geography to what he calls "connectography." This emerging global network civilization holds the promise of reducing pollution and inequality -- and even overcoming geopolitical rivalries. In this talk, Khanna asks us to embrace a new maxim for the future: "Connectivity is destiny."

Economic growth is the defining challenge of our time; without it, political and social instability rises, human progress stagnates and societies grow dimmer. But, says economist Dambisa Moyo, dogmatic capitalism isn't creating the growth we need. As she shows, in both state-sponsored and market-driven models, capitalism is failing to solve social ills, fostering corruption and creating income inequality. Moyo surveys the current economic landscape and suggests that we have to start thinking about capitalism as a spectrum so we can blend the best of different models together to foster growth.

   The term Gross Domestic Product is often talked about as if it were “handed down from god on tablets of stone.” But this concept was invented by an economist in the 1930s. We need a more effective measurement tool to match 21st century needs, says Michael Green: the Social Progress Index. With charm and wit, he shows how this tool measures societies across the three dimensions that actually matter. And reveals the dramatic reordering of nations that occurs when you use it.

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Economist Eleni Gabre-Madhin outlines her ambitious vision to found the first commodities market in Ethiopia. Her plan would create wealth, minimize risk for farmers and turn the world's largest recipient of food aid into a regional food basket.

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Read Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization by Parag Khanna Book Online, Download in PDF / Epub

Best Way to Read Online Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization by Parag Khanna Book or Download in PDF and Epub hi, my fellowship readers. If you wish to read book Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization by Parag Khanna online. Here, i give you recommendation site that is a great resource for anyone who prefers to read books online or download it. today, this book of Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization by Parag Khanna is available, Just read the book online for free. Now you can get access of full pages on the book. i and my friends always read the popular book here because this book content can easy access on any device. go to the book : http://tinyurl.com/h8r9my3 Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization. Overview : From the visionary bestselling author of The Second World and How to Run the World comes a bracing and authoritative guide to a future shaped less by national borders than by global supply chains, a world in which the most connected powers—and people—will win. Connectivity is the most revolutionary force of the twenty-first century. Mankind is reengineering the planet, investing up to ten trillion dollars per year in transportation, energy, and communications infrastructure linking the world’s burgeoning megacities together. This has profound consequences for geopolitics, economics, demographics, the environment, and social identity. Connectivity, not geography, is our destiny. In Connectography, visionary strategist Parag Khanna travels from Ukraine to Iran, Mongolia to North Korea, Pakistan to Nigeria, and across the Arctic Circle and the South China Sea to explain the rapid and unprecedented changes affecting every part of the planet. He shows how militaries are deployed to protect supply chains as much as borders, and how nations are less at war over territory than engaged in tugs-of-war over pipelines, railways, shipping lanes, and Internet cables. The new arms race is to connect to the most markets—a race China is now winning, having launched a wave of infrastructure investments to unite Eurasia around its new Silk Roads. The United States can only regain ground by fusing with its neighbors into a super-continental North American Union of shared resources and prosperity. Connectography offers a unique and hopeful vision for the future. Khanna argues that new energy discoveries and technologies have eliminated the need for resource wars; ambitious transport corridors and power grids are unscrambling Africa’s fraught colonial borders; even the Arab world is evolving a more peaceful map as it builds resource and trade routes across its war-torn landscape. At the same time, thriving hubs such as Singapore and Dubai are injecting dynamism into young and heavily populated regions, cyber-communities empower commerce across vast distances, and the world’s ballooning financial assets are being wisely invested into building an inclusive global society. Beneath the chaos of a world that appears to be falling apart is a new foundation of connectivity pulling it together. Advance praise for Connectography “Connectography is ahead of the curve in seeing the battlefield of the future and the new kind of tug-of-war being waged on it. Khanna’s scholarship and foresight are world-class. . . . A must-read for the next president.”—Chuck Hagel, former U.S. secretary of defense “This bold reframing is an exciting addition to our ongoing debate about geopolitics and the future of globalization.”—Dominic Barton, global managing partner, McKinsey & Company “This is probably the most global book ever written. It is intensely specific while remaining broad and wide. Its takeaway is that infrastructure is destiny: Follow the supply lines outlined in this book to see where the future flows.”—Kevin Kelly, co-founder, Wired “There’s no better guide than Khanna to show us all the possibilities of this new hyperconnected world.”—Mathew Burrows, director, Strategic Foresight Initiative at the Atlantic Council, and former counselor, U.S. National Intelligence Council “This book is an invaluable resource for anyone involved in business, science, arts, or any other field.”—Mark Mobius, executive chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group “A must-read for anyone who wants to understand the future of humanity.”—Sandy Pentland, professor, MIT Media Lab. Top Books. Top Authors. Any Device. Enjoy the freedom to explore over 1 million titles and thousands of Hot New Releases Book on any device there. There are also other available format to download: PDF Kindle ePub Mobi Daisy You also can Search for books you want to read free by choosing a title.. You can find works in different literary forms, not just in English but in many other languages of the world, composed by a diverse and interesting array of authors. Many of these books are all time classics appealing to all ages. Authored by many renowned authors of their times, these books are a unique resource of knowledge and enrichment to be cherished forever. Hope this sharing helpfully.

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Read Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization by Parag Khanna Book Online, Download in PDF / Epub