#cascade climate network

[cogitoergodeusnonest]

Intricate dance of nature — predicting extinction risks in terrestrial ecosystems

Have you ever watched a nature documentary and marvelled at the intricate dance of life unfolding on screen? From the smallest insect to the largest predator, every creature plays a role in the grand performance of our planet’s biosphere. But what happens when one of these performers disappears?  In this post, we delve into our recent article Estimating co-extinction risks in terrestrial…

[crookedkryptonitebeliever]

Hired

One of many ways Yves could establish first contact with you.

tw: i guess kind of none because if you take what happened here at face value, it kinda even seem wholesome and normal, except maybe the mild infantilization

u gotta look at the Yves lore before understanding the implications of some stuff

Yves is a wonderful employer, he is infinitely better than any of your other bosses. The economic and societal climate is changing; despite having a bachelor's degree, all you could get are entry-level jobs. At this point, the only way a person could reliably advance in their career is through contacts.

There was no wonder why you would jump at the chance when your cousin offered to put you in contact with their affluent associate. Of which, is looking to hire a personal assistant. It's not the most ideal job in the world, but you were hoping through Yves, you could network enough and open more doors.

You were nervous; as your cousin described him as quiet but not meek, polite but aloof, calm yet holding an air of absolute authority around him. You assume that he's someone who couldn't tolerate mistakes, no matter how small or inconsequential. However, the fact that Yves treats those who work under him well was enough to make you push your fears away and agree to a meeting with him.

He is a busy man, so you couldn't meet him until a week later. The wait is killing you; at least you had time to prepare, rehearse your responses, and gather whatever medication necessary to prevent you from vomiting upon seeing him. Your cousin had to assure you that Yves isn't as menacing or uncompromising as you built him up to be. Yet, you wouldn't believe them. So you suffer in your own anxiety.

And when you do finally meet in a fine dining restaurant as per his arrangement, it took you every ounce of your strength not to pass out.

Yves is beautiful. He carried himself with such grace and elegance, even his movements look unreal. As if it's much more fluid and effortless than normal people. His jet black hair that cascades down to the middle of his back, to his piercing emerald gaze, everything about him intimidated you half to death. It's not a human that you're looking at, you're looking at something closer to an ethereal deity, if anything.

He offered a small, polite smile before addressing you by your first name.

The combination of his overwhelming aura and the opulence of the meeting venue, you're beginning to doubt you should even be here.

He presented his perfectly manicured hand to you, obviously for you to shake and do a proper introduction. But you merely stared at it, blanking out in panic. You felt dirty, a filthy commoner should never touch such a delicate, expensive-

"Are you alright?" He asked. Yves has a pleasant sounding baritone voice; it exudes warmth that is unfamiliar, but addicting. You craned your neck upwards to see no malice, only concern.

You cleared your throat and muttered an apology before shaking his hand. You were hyper focused on how clammy your hands must feel to him.

"(name)." You felt your heart drop into your stomach when he unpredictability enveloped your trembling hand with both of his. For the first time, you realized that his hands are unnaturally cold. So cold, that it almost felt like you're touching a block of ice. Your unending loop of self negativity was broken by the unexpected temperature shock.

He leaned down a bit closer. "You are doing well."

Yves stated with such assurance, you released a breath of relief and felt the fear melt away. His thumbs massaged your hand for a few more seconds, just enough to calm you down further, but not long enough to make you uncomfortable.

When his grip loosened, you successfully took it as a cue to let go. He took a seat and gestured for you to do the same.

You braced yourself for the first interview question as the food isn't here yet. There was no menu, Yves already preordered the food. That was why he had contacted you a few days prior to ask about your dietary requirements and/or restrictions.

You expected every generic and obscure that a Human Resources department could ever come up with, repeating the lines in your head so you wouldn't mess up. You intently watch him part his soft lips to speak.

"How are you, (name)?"

You froze. You didn't take into account that he would test you on small talk. You didn't practice that.

So you stuttered and stumbled over your words, eventually giving him a generic "Good." Then, you immediately clammed up, waiting for his next response.

He smiled. It was kind and genuine. "That's wonderful to know. I am also doing well myself."

You cringed internally, realizing that you should have returned the question.

But before you could beat yourself up over it, he continued exchanging pleasantries with you. Talking about mundane topics about the weather, the restaurant, travelling, hobbies- it was boring, but you felt safer and safer as it went on.

You became comfortable because Yves eventually seemed human enough to recognize, as someone who wouldn't bite your head off at the first wrong move. An image of a caring gentleman who just happens to be reserved replaced the ruthless dictator-like persona you had for Yves in your head.

Your cousin was right, you were really stressing over nothing. It became so easy to talk to him that the tension in your shoulders was gone, your words now flow without stumbles and you can feel your anxiety medication course through your veins and finally doing it's job.

The way he puppets the conversation is so masterful, that you didn't even realize he had transitioned the topics to the actual interview. You still spoke to him so casually, as if he's your non-judgemental prude of a friend.

If it wasn't for Yves's conversational skills, you would have been malfunctioning over how you should hold your fork and knife. But you were eating like you always would; fast, slow, neat or slightly messy, it didn't matter. You stopped seeing Yves as a potential employer and more of a buddy.

The "interview" went on until the plates were cleared, including desserts. Waiters and waitresses took them away, you took that as your cue to stiffen up because the real interview is about to start.

You went through the same process of silently repeating your memorized answers to yourself, but this time with no pressure.

Only to be dumbfounded when Yves asked, "How soon can you start working with me?" implying that you somehow passed the interview that never happened.

There were a few moments of silence from you, trying to process it all. You end up asking him about the other questions you were expecting him to ask.

"I did ask about those earlier. I find that your responses reflect a personality best suited for this position." He folded his hands on his lap.

Then you realized, he actually did. All this time, you thought those were inconsequential small talk.

You were suddenly caught up in a decision paralysis, unable to come up with a clear choice immediately. Yves must have noticed this, as he took out a file from his designer handbag and a fountain pen.

"Are you available to start tomorrow?" He opened the file and put the contract in front of you.

And that was how you secured a high paying job with almost unbelievable fringe benefits: free accommodation (as it was much easier to work with him if you stayed in the same house), three free meals a day cooked by your boss, including whatever Yves has in his kitchen, a company car for private use (his personal car), and hell, he even covers your self-education expenses.

It was strange at first that Yves would cook. You expected him to have private chefs and servants to handle maintenance of his humble abode. But you quickly come to realize, the reason why he was so busy is precisely due to that. He would do all the chores himself, no matter how undignified you thought it was.

He makes his own tea and fixes a cup of your favourite beverage too. The free meals he whips up on the daily are healthy and delicious, there are no ultra processed foods in his house. He manages his own finances, so you don't know how much he earns or has in the bank.

Yves surprisingly loved doing such menial tasks- tasks that you were supposed to handle, becoming fussy when you tried doing some of them for him. He would send you away and tell you to stick to what you're instructed to do. Which was to arrange Yves's meetings with his business associates based on his packed schedules. And to reply to his emails and answer calls, the latter is rare but you're glad as it's so daunting to talk to other rich folks.

As days turn into months, you notice how Yves is such a damn recluse. He wouldn't leave the house unless he has to and he doesn't seem to have friends he would regularly hang out with. You don't even think he has friends he enjoys being around. No family either.

Your job eventually was to just be there for him. You were never bored despite having very little to do, because Yves would talk to you and bring you wherever you always wanted to go, all expenses paid out of his own pocket.

The downside to all of these was that he nags. He nags your ear off if you forgot to put on sunscreen for the day, he nags if you're bringing in candies into his pantry, he nags if you still hung out with that friend who spread nasty rumors about you and he nags if you're doing something he perceives as harmful towards yourself.

But you knew he genuinely cared about you and he also verbally confirmed it himself, as he considered you as someone awfully special to him. Unfortunately, his boldness developed some awkward feelings in you. Never in your life did you have some who gave a crap about you as much as Yves.

You had come to see him as a crush. It's hard to avoid him when you're living under the same roof, eating the same meals and hanging out with him as part of your job description.

Predictably, he quickly sniffed out that something was amiss, and he directly questioned you about it one random afternoon. It didn't take long for you to buckle under the stress he was putting on you with his unique, maternal-esque interrogation techniques. You spilled the beans, you told him everything no matter how painfully embarrassing it was.

You ended your speech with a hot face and a belief that he will fire you right after this.

Yves merely hummed in response. You hung your head low, bracing for impact.

However, the only impact you felt was a feathery, sweet peck on the cheek. Your head shot back up and stared at him with wide eyes, Yves was smiling with glee and serenity.

"Dinner will be ready at five, dear." He traced his fingers along your jawline and walked away to prepare a meal for two.

Of course, after you recovered from your stupor, you ran after him and began asking what exactly happened.

"You confessed your feelings for me, and I accepted it." He explained as he cupped both sides of your cheeks, rubbing them with his thumbs. "You are now my beloved partner. And if all goes well, eventually, my lawfully wedded spouse."

You couldn't coherently get your thoughts out, a million of them are firing through your mind and you're still struggling to process that your boss might feel the same way. And what does this mean for your job? It's definitely going to change now that you're romantically involved with him.

He then pulled you into a hug, holding you close and raking his fingers through your hair.

"One step at a time, my love. Do not overwhelm yourself." He kissed you on the crown of your head. You allowed yourself to melt in his arms, inhaling his comforting scent as he pets you.

And as it turns out, there isn't too much of a difference after Yves becomes your boyfriend. He still cooks and cleans, you still schedule his meetings for him. It's just that he would show his gratitude with forehead kisses now. And there is the addition of pet names.

You unlocked the option to sleep in the same bed as him, either in his room or yours. You almost immediately become secure enough to randomly cuddle up to him throughout the day. Likewise, he was comfortable enough to leave lipstick marks on your face whenever he feels like it.

He could be reading on the sofa, and you could lay your head on his lap with no problem at all. Yves would proceed to mindlessly massage your scalp.

Yves nags a lot less now, because he would simply apply sunscreen on you if you forgot, fix your clothes if it's messy, and basically baby you to an unbearable extent.

Except, it is bearable. Because if it wasn't, you wouldn't have let it slide for so long. And you wouldn't have allowed him to tie your shoelaces for you or wipe your snot away whenever you have the sniffles.

So, you still think Yves is a pretty swell boss and an amazing boyfriend. You felt like you hit the jackpot on this one and you couldn't have been luckier.

[theriverbeyond]

Jod is the ultimate climate doomer. Spent so much time going on about the corruption and downfall of the human race that when EARTH HERSELF showed him how to save her AND all the billionaires LEFT THE PLANET he still looked around and was like. nah. Can’t be saved. Too far gone. Everyone is going to die and humanity will end. And then just did it himself. I want to push into a lake of flaming lava.

i hate to say this anon but while i DO want to push John into a flaming lake of lava, I don't think he did the things you are saying.

like, i just don't think John was a doomer. he wanted to save the earth!!! he wanted to STAY and FIX things!!! his destructive act at the end of it all wasn't due to apathetic nihilism it was due to like. all-encompassing rage grief and mindbreaking experience of splicing himself into the soul-network of the entire earth. also Alecto very much did NOT show him how to save her. Alecto did the equivalent of giving car keys to a toddler and then leaving the toddler in the car.

he gaslight a teenager and mindwiped all his friends ❤️ set off a nuclear cascade and then ate a whole solar system ❤️ started an galactic-scale imperialistic forever war ❤️ built his empire into a catholicism flavored deathcult just for the vibes ❤️ im pushing him into the lava over that. peace and love

[whirligig-girl]

Some of the history of Zwo-nmu System Exploration by Mellanoid Slime Worm Space Programs.

A reminder of the Zwo-nmu Planetary System. The Sun, also called The Zwo-nmu (literally The Day Light) is a G8V main sequence star with many giant planets. Mellanus, called Gymnome by some of its inhabitants, is the homeworld of the Mellanoid Slime Worms--Eaurp Guz's people. Mellanus is a coorbital of Omen in a horseshoe orbit. Every 15 or so earth years, Mellanus approaches Omen, which moves it into a higher or lower orbit around the Sun.

This graphic is in a rotating reference frame following Omen. green circle is Omen's orbit in a non-rotating reference frame. Yellow circle is Mellanus' inner/short/summer/hot orbit. Purple circle is Mellanus' outer/long/winter/cold orbit. Blue and gray circles are the orbits of Cold Ember and Rabbit. Times are given in Earth days and distances in Earth-Sun-distances (astronomical units)

Omen is named, of course, as it represents drastic climate change--orbital seasons affecting both hemispheres for many years at a time.

With that reminder out of the way...

Zwo-nmu (the star)

extensive telescopic study from low mellanus orbit. The first solar telescope to enter orbit discovered the corona but was not set up to observe it properly, so follow-up missions had to be undertaken.

studied by the Cold Ember probes and by at least one dedicated "sun-scraper"

Cold Ember (the hot super-earth/sub-neptunian)

Of the five probes sent to Cold Ember at various times, only two have made it.

The second one to make it is an orbiter. It relies on stationkeeping propellant so its elliptical orbit always keeps its apoapsis on the night side of the planet, such that it can spend time in the shadow to keep cool. Within a few days of it running out of stationkeeping fuel it will begin to overheat. There are proposals to send a Rescue Shuttle up to resupply and repair the probe, but the strict rules about use of alien spacecrafts in the mellanoid space program make that difficult.

Rabbit

Visited by 2 robotic probes--a flyby and a short-lived orbiter. A lander/rover is planned, but doesn't have the same priority as the Omen Development Program and the Ice Giants Exploration Program.

Mellanus Orbit

At its peak, Mellanus had thousands of satellites and dozens of space stations, but a near-miss with ablation cascade (see: the movie Gravity (2013)) that was only averted thanks to the recently installed phaser network has lead to many restrictions being put in place on the number and function of satellites. Early in the history of mellanoid space exploration, there was not much automation available. Satellites had to be crewed, and so there were many space stations, and when automation happened, those space stations grew into constellations of satellites. Telecommunications constellations were the real culprit, with several competing agencies, companies, and nations setting up their own independent constellations ranging from 10s to 1000s of satellites each. But now, subspace technology has rendered low-orbit communications satellites obsolete, and there are just a few dozen geosynchronous communications satellites, a GPS network, and the number of Mellanus observation satellites has been coralled.

One of the United Mellanus Space Program's current duties is the cleanup of low orbit, which is operated both by phaser blasts in an emergency and by crewed spacecrafts. Most of the space stations in mellanus orbit are specifically infrastructure intended to refuel these spacecrafts, since they need to be able to access a wide range of inclinations, and inclination changes are difficult to accomplish.

Other space stations include the constellation of orbital drydocks, which are all orbiting about a hundred kilometers apart from one another, and the Starbase, a very large rotating artificial gravity space station which was built between the 2340s and the 2360s, and serves as the space end of the interstellar spaceport.

Mellanus natural satellites

Mellanus has one permanent satellite, Ubbi, a 340 meter wide rubble pile which is thought to have once been another asteroid's moon, millions of years ago. It is just barely bright enough to be seen by a mellanoid who has expanded their eye to the greatest practical width, but it wasn't noticed to be a moving star until after the invention of the astronomical telescope and the popularization of sun-centrism. It was thought at first to be an asteroid, since it was discovered while Mellanus was passing through Omen's trojan cloud, but careful observations determined that it was a satellite in a stable circular orbit, and a careful observation of photographic plates and star charts indicate it's been orbiting Mellanus for at least hundreds of years. It's named after its discoverer.

Many early mellanoid space activities have used Ubbi as a target. There are dozens of probes. Sadly Ubbi is very resource poor, being poor in both volatiles that could be used for propellant and metals that could make it valuable. It's not even a useful science target, since one of the earliest missions to visit it was an impactor which essentially exploded Ubbi. It reformed again, but completely resurfaced, burying clues to its origin as a satellite. Ubbi is currently orbited by one derelict spacecraft and

There have been three temporary natural satellites of Mellanus to be visited by spacecrafts. All but one have entered Mellanus orbit only for a few months and were only visited by robotic probes. The largest one, Temma was three kilometers across and in an eccentric orbit that remained stable all the way up until two Omen conjunctions later, so it lasted for about 30-35 years. However, as a carbonaceous asteroid, it was rich in volatiles, and it was explored and settled extensively by all major space programs. The first crewed international interplanetary trips to Omen used fuel refined from Temma and brought down to low orbit.

The Omen Coorbitals (Trojans, Greeks, and Other Horseshoes)

Outside of Ubbi and Temma, the Coorbitals are the next step out into space. Mellanus occasionally has close encounters with coorbitals. Over time Mellanus and Omen together have corralled the coorbitals into very specific lanes. There are far fewer coorbitals around Omen than Glerbuh, or, say, Jupiter, because coorbital or not, Mellanus is still a planet. Most of the coorbitals are trojans, with the apsides neatly tucked in between the outer edge of Mellanus' sphere of influence in the low orbit, and the inner edge of Mellanus' sphere of influence in the high orbit. The Greeks--the trojans on the leading edge of Omen's orbit--are especially depleted. It's thought that Mellanus was once the only large object in the greek camp, but was perturbed onto its current horseshoe orbit billions of years ago. As a result, the greek camp is a hodge-podge of scattered objects from elsewhere in the system, whereas the trojan camp is comprised of more objects original to this part of the circumstellar disk. Each camp can answer different questions about the evolution of the Zwo-nmu system, and Mellanus' relation to it in particular. Ironically, even though the greek camp is Mellanus' original home, it's the trojan camp that is more relevant to studying Mellanus itself.

It is possible on any given year to send a spacecraft to visit Omen, Trojans, Greeks, or any other coorbital. However, the trajectories which take a minimum of fuel are only accessible 1-6 months or so before the closest approach with either object, and for crewed missions, less efficient but faster trajectories lasting only a month right around the close approach are preferred.

Outside of the Omen apparitions, the most active times for interplanetary spaceflight have historically been around the passing through the trojan clouds, which happens about 6 years before and after each Omen apparition. Starting from the low summer orbit, Mellanus passes the Trojan Camp. 6 years later, it reaches Omen and moves to the high winter orbit. 6 years after that, it passes the Trojan camp again. Then 15 years later, it passes the Greek Camp. 6 more years later, Omen appears large and Mellanus shifts to the summer orbit. 6 years later, it passes the Greek camp again. 15 years pass, and then we restart the cycle.

other horseshoe-coorbitals can be encountered at any time of year, but there's only a few of these known to exist.

Crewed missions to the other coorbitals have served as test flights for Omen missions, while also contributing meaningfully to planetary science as a whole. While asteroid exploration may not be exciting or glamorous, the use of trojan missions as testbeds has allowed a lot of groundbreaking work that otherwise might not have had any support to be performed.

Humans currently, in the real world 2020s, posses the propulsion technology and even, in principle, the industrial capacity to send humans to Mars. What we lack is a good idea of how to support humans on interplanetary spaceflight for many months or years at a time. A typical stay on the International Space Station is not even comparable to a Mars mission. That research is still underway. But we can go to the Moon. What's crucial is the relatively short turnaround time. A Moon mission may take only a week or two. The Artemis lunar missions will last longer, but not as long as a Mars mission would have to.

Absent a permanent moon of any substance, the Mellanoids are able to get their relatively short turnaround missions done thanks to the coorbitals. If Mellanus were still a trojan, it'd have emptied out the Greek Camp. Omen would never get particularly close, and it'd take over a year to make a round trip to it. It'd be just as hard to reach as Mars or the Main Asteroid Belt. But since Mellanus is in a horseshoe orbit, for about a year at a time every 6-15 years it is within spitting distance of some celestial body or another. Every 18-19 years that celestial body is the magnificent planet Omen with its own system of moons. When it's not Omen, it's the coorbital asteroids.

Propulsion wise it is not that much easier to reach the Omen coorbitals than it is for humans to go to Mars. You still have to escape Mellanus and keep accelerating on top of that.

But instead of bringing all of the comforts and necessities involved in the long-term habitation of space with you to a distant planet, you can get away with using capsules that are not much more advanced than what we were using in the Apollo era. The long term habitation problem is solved, leaving the only major problem left that of propulsion, of vehicle design. And since Mellanus is relatively small and they aren't shy about using nuclear rockets, the propulsion problem isn't that big of a deal. in a way, Omen and the coorbitals are a crutch. By the 2340s Mellanoid space programs still had not undertaken crewed interplanetary missions beyond the coorbitals. But, at least in Star Trek, human spaceflights to Europa & Jupiter were being undertaken in the 2020s. These missions would have had to take years! that said, there is a reason Omen has been such a focus--and it's not just because it is so culturally important.

The Omen System

Since the dawn of the Mellanoid space age, there have been six Omen apparitions.

Years given are Earth Years

1) 2300: Two nations launched robotic flyby attempts this year. One succeeded, but it was little more than a spinning photopolarimeter which could take a grainy image of Omen and a magnetometer which produced useful magnetic field readings. 2) 2315: Two failed atmosphere probes for Oldsky, one successful robotic lander on Rival, one successful robotic lander on Spark, and successful orbit insertion of a robotic Omen orbiter which continued to send back photos of Omen and its moons right through to the next conjunction. During the lifetime of this orbiter, Oldsky was conclusively shown to have complex life. 3) 2329: First crewed missions. There is a crewed landing on Rival, a crewed orbiter mission for Oldsky. It had originally intended to operate out of a small space station placed into Oldsky orbit a year in advance, but this station was covertly destroyed by Zaldans, and the orbiter mission was repurposed as a mere flyby, which fails, leading to first contact with Zaldans. 4) 2344: The most important year yet--the beginning of space archaeology. It's also the year asteroid Temma departs Mellanus and makes its own flyby of Omen. 5) 2358: International grand tour involving orbiters and landers on every planet including Oldsky. Leads to formation of United Mellanus Space Program. 6) 2373: Fission-impulse rockets have made regular interplanetary travel between Mellanus and Omen possible on any year. 7) 2387: Oldsky is now a colony of Mellanus.

Mellanus is on the border of the Zaldan sphere of influence, and with the increasing expansionism of the Cardassians and the tragedy of what they had begun to do to the Bajorans, the Zaldans desired military bases on the stars near their industrial colonies and their homeworld. These bases had to provide deuterium, so they needed to be located in a system with a gas giant, and also function as repair stations. The stars surrounding Mellanus were poor candidates--there are no M-class habitable planets around the nearby stars, and the only other gas giants were hot Jupiters or brown dwarfs which would make deuterium extraction difficult.

The Zaldans respected the non-interference directive, but not if it meant a gaping hole in their security. They would set up a military base on Omen's M-class moon Oldsky. There was an orbiting space station and a surface base, connected by cargo transporters and shuttlecrafts, staffed by military officers and a few civilian personnel, not unlike Deep Space Nine, but considerably more of a frontier for all involved. There was also a space station built in very low orbit of Omen, designed to scrape the atmosphere for deuterium to fuel freighters. These ships would be undetectable to the mellanoids as long as ships entering the system avoided activity during close encounters and all ships entering and leaving the system hid their photon wakes behind the Sun, resulting in fairly complex routing.

During the 2329 Omen apparition, a spacecraft that had been intended to fly by Omen had a severe failure, akin to Apollo 13. Still over a month from home, with no prospect but a horrible death, they were famously rescued by Commander Halen's ship, EZM-407, marking official first contact with the Zaldans. They were returned to Mellanus and the Zaldans finally landed, showing the world that not only were Mellanoids not alone in the universe, they weren't even alone in their own solar system.

Several ships visited Mellanus over the next few years on primarily diplomatic missions, but the Zaldans still kept hands-off, sharing only a minimum of information with the Mellanoids. Not many Zaldans had Halen's affinity for the slimes, and they saw mellanoids as lowly uncivilized savages--and their flowery polite diplomatic language only confirmed this to them. It wasn't before someone really stood up to them--a space program engineer who had gotten tired of standing in the sidelines while his people were being insulted--that the Zaldans finally found a glimmer of respect for the mellanoids.

There had been plans to fly a Mellanoid astronaut to Oldsky in exchange for allowing Zaldan researchers to visit Mellanus, and even early talks of embassies and sharing of the Omen infrastructure, when the Zaldans just… disappeared. Completely cut contact.

If sharing their solar system with rude bullies (who, yes, could have wiped them out a dozen times over yet decided not to so at least there's that) wasn't scary enough, those rude bullies disappearing without a trace was even scarier. On a scale greater than even the Apollo program, nations rushed to assemble their missions to visit Omen and Oldsky to figure out what happened to the Zaldan Military Base. Their robotic probes launched on off-years didn't return any answers--crewed exploration and actually landing mellanoids on Oldsky would be the only answer.

There was also the fact that recovering technology from Oldsky could potentially be transformative--the right technology in the wrong hands could destroy the world. This is spaceflight at its most competitive. This was no longer a game--recovering the alien technology was potentially life or death.

After the first contact with the Federation and the series of revolutions and reforms that lead to the current political situation, one of the main unifying rallying cries for mellanoids was the notion that they deserved the right to sovereign exploration of their own solar system. Outsiders--whether Zaldan, or Federation, or Dominion--would not develop any part of the system!

Ok, the Federation can provide some baseline infrastructure to protect Mellanus from invasion, but space exploration is OUR COMMON HERITAGE!

The current age of Mellanoid Space Exploration is characterized by extensive permanent infrastructure development. Since the 2360s, Mellanoids have been building research stations on Oldsky, Lake, and Rival. Setting up an industrial capability on another planet from scratch is hard to do, but Oldsky has a stable climate year-round and a breathable atmosphere. Much of Oldsky is a desert, and even the "humid" regions are quite dry, but it's still more habitable than literally any other planet in the solar system except for Mellanus, which makes it practical to build using traditional methods.

As of 2380, more people are living and working on Oldsky at any given moment than are doing so in Low Mellanus Orbit. Oldsky station visitors includes geologists, biologists, space archaeologists still studying what remains of Zaldan activity on Oldsky, civil engineers, aerospace engineers, construction workers, miners, marine biologists, submarine helmcrew, aircraft pilots, spacecraft pilots, rover drivers, doctors, astronomers, and even a few tourists selected by raffle.

Propellant infrastructure has been established to keep the fast interplanetary rockets zipping along. At this point, it is possible to stay on Oldsky permanently, but so far, all visitors to Oldsky are temporary, and on years when Omen is inaccessible even with nuclear-fission-impulse rockets (i.e, when the Sun is between it and Mellanus), only a skeleton crew remains to maintain the stations.

Oldsky will probably not have its own self sufficient industry and capacity for its own space program any time soon, but it does have a spaceport serviced by reusable launch vehicles.

Phaser-thermal rockets are used for heavy lift launches from Mellanus these days, but conventional chemical rockets are still used on Oldsky, fueled by hydrogen and oxygen split by electrolysis. There is an oil refinery on Oldsky, so kerosene/oxygen rockets are possible too. things remain somewhat low-tech on Oldsky. Imported vehicles can be powered by batteries, but there aren't let any lithium mines on Oldsky--good deposits have yet to be discovered--so internal combustion engines powered by oil are sadly being used. The Oldsky Planetary Protection Office on Mellanus intends to phase out fossil fuel engines as soon as the planet is capable of producing its own high-energy-density batteries… whenever that is… also, between you and me, they really ought to get more aquatics flying on these missions. what an aquatic astronaut could find on Oldsky might be quite shocking.

Anyway outside of the Omen system and Oldsky Glerbuh has had its fair share of robotic exploration and crewed expeditions. Two of the four ice giants have also been visited by robotic flyby probes, and Glarpi (the innermost ice giant) has had a robotic orbiter. The big crewed grand tour expedition to explore all four ice giants and there moons was one of the major science goals of the 2380s outside of exploring and developing Oldsky. However, it had to be modified to turn into a rescue mission for a mellanoid starfleet officer who was stranded on a planet orbiting a nearby star called TE-92. It's a whole thing. If they manage to rescue them maybe they'll write a novel about it.

[cognitivejustice]

A 2,000-year-old Sri Lankan hydraulic system uses natural features to help harvest and store rainwater. In a rapidly warming world, it is providing a lifeline for rural communities.

Each April, in the village of Maeliya in northwest Sri Lanka, Pinchal Weldurelage Siriwardene gathers his community under the shade of a large banyan tree. The tree overlooks a human-made body of water called a wewa – meaning reservoir or "tank" in Sinhala. The wewa stretches out besides the village's rice paddies for 175-acres (708,200 sq m) and is filled with the rainwater of preceding months. 

 Tank cascades are receiving new attention as climate change is projected to increase both Sri Lanka's drought and flood risk (Credit: Zinara Rathnayake) 

Siriwardene, the 76-year-old secretary of the village's agrarian committee, has a tightly-guarded ritual to perform. By boiling coconut milk on an open hearth beside the tank, he will seek blessings for a prosperous harvest from the deities residing in the tree. "It's only after that we open the sluice gate to water the rice fields," he told me when I visited on a scorching mid-April afternoon.

By releasing water into irrigation canals below, the tank supports the rice crop during the dry months before the rains arrive. For nearly two millennia, lake-like water bodies such as this have helped generations of farmers cultivate their fields. An old Sinhala phrase, "wewai dagabai gamai pansalai", even reflects the technology's centrality to village life; meaning "tank, pagoda, village and temple".

But the village's tank does not work alone. It is part of an ancient hydraulic network called an ellangawa, or "tank cascade system". As such, the artificial lake at Maeliya links up with smaller, man-made reservoirs upstream in the watershed. Together with their carefully managed natural surroundings, these interconnecting storage structures allow rainwater to be harvested, shared and re-used across the local area.

Constructed from the 4th Century BC up to the 1200s, these cascade systems have long helped Sri Lankan communities cope with prolonged periods of dry weather. "As most of the country is made up of crystalline hard rock with poor permeability, it induces runoff, " says Christina Shanthi De Silva, senior professor in agricultural and plantation engineering at The Open University of Sri Lanka. "Our forefathers built tank cascades to capture this surface runoff," she explains, preventing it from being washed away into rivers and, ultimately, the sea.

Such knowledge has since been passed down the generations. In a laminated box file, Siriwardene carefully safeguards a map his father, the village head, drew of Maeliya's cascade. There are nine tanks in this particular cascade, his father writes. A copy of another handwritten booklet documents the tanks' history and the folk poems that villagers sang in gratitude for its continuous water resource.

[mountrainiernps]

Glacier monitoring at Mount Rainier gives insight to summer stream flows.

Every year crews from the North Coast & Cascades Inventory & Monitoring Network track glacier health at Mount Rainier. In the spring, crews visit Nisqually and Emmons glaciers to measure how much new snow has accumulated on the glacier surface during the winter. Snow depth and density measurements determine how much water is held in that snowpack (snow water equivalent). Measurement rods are also installed to track snow and ice melt over the coming summer. This allows us to track accumulation (snow that becomes added ice) and melt (lost ice) over the long term.

NPS/S.Hagen Photo: Glacier monitoring lead smiles at the success of the spring glacier trip on the lower Nisqually, 4/22/24.

In the short term, the snow depth measurements, along with data contributed from climate stations, can help us anticipate melt water availability in the summer.

Graph of SWE at two locations on the Nisqually Glacier during drought years compared to average.

Results of the snow water equivalent (SWE), or how much water would result if all the snow melted, at two different elevations on the Nisqually Glacier are displayed in the graph. Notably, the results from a 4/22/24 survey on the Nisqually Glacier are below the average. In 2024, SWE at these elevations is higher than the drought year of 2005 but below the drought year of 2015 at both elevations.

Snow is not the only contribution to water in streams, but in our region it’s an important source.

[mariacallous]

Central banks from eight countries—Mexico, the UK, France, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Singapore, and China—formed the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) in 2017 to investigate and coordinate a response to climate change. By the end of 2022, the NGFS had over 120 members. However, among these central banks, there were considerable differences in the strategies adopted to account for and address climate change. Most strikingly, climate change has emerged as an unusual area of divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), despite their historical tendency to adopt similar policy tools, frameworks, and objectives. The Fed limited its approach to climate change to basic climate policy standards or “norms” that recognized some relevance of climate change to achieving its monetary and prudential objectives but avoided any support for decarbonization. In contrast, the ECB better appreciated that climate change raised profound challenges for achieving its central banking objectives. As a result, the ECB adopted proactive climate policy norms that, for example, put in place climate-related criteria for asset purchase programs and far-reaching supervisory interventions to ensure that financial institutions accounted for climate risk.

To understand the ECB-Fed divergence on climate policy, we develop a theoretical framework that describes how new central banking norms are created and become influential in the context of domestic and international pressures. In the initial stage of climate policy norm emergence, broad support across the EU for climate action along with persuasive think tanks, researchers, and other policy entrepreneurs helped push the ECB to endorse new climate-related norms. The founding of the NGFS and the associated cascade of climate-related norms exerted significant pressure towards climate policy convergence across many central banks. However, the deeply polarized and partisan U.S. debate on climate change, stoked by an influential domestic fossil fuel industry, led the Fed to adopt only a modest version of the foundational climate norms—a stark divergence from the proactive climate stance of the ECB.

Given the deep differences in domestic political pressures, it seems unlikely that the climate policy differences between the ECB and the Fed will soon disappear. However, given the international connectedness of central banking, we expect global policy norms to provide sustained pressure towards convergence. In this context, the ECB might scale back some proactive commitments, although it seems unlikely to entirely disavow its current forward-leaning stance. The Fed may also seek a more favorable compromise, such as assuring domestic audiences of climate policy restraint, while cooperating with international peers on less overt regulatory interventions.

Download the full paper here»

[sciencespies]

Corridors between Western U.S. national parks would greatly increase the persistence time of mammals

https://sciencespies.com/nature/corridors-between-western-u-s-national-parks-would-greatly-increase-the-persistence-time-of-mammals/

Corridors between Western U.S. national parks would greatly increase the persistence time of mammals

National parks are the backbone of conservation. Yet mounting evidence shows that many parks are too small to sustain long-term viable populations and maintain essential, large-scale ecological processes, such as large mammal migrations and natural disturbance regimes.

A new study published on Jan. 11, 2023, in Scientific Reports found that enhancing ecological connectivity, known as “corridors” or “linkages,” among several of the oldest and largest national parks in the Western United States would greatly extend the time that many mammal species populations can persist. The authors analyzed the value of establishing ecological corridors for large mammals between Yellowstone and Glacier National Parks and between Mount Rainier and North Cascades National Parks. Their findings show that these corridors would not only enlarge populations, but also allow species to shift their geographic ranges more readily in response to climate change.

“Eliminating barriers of movement between parks and more carefully managing land-use along these pathways are crucial for the survival of many mammal species,” said William Newmark, research curator at the Natural History Museum of Utah and lead author of the study. “Establishing an expanded protected area network based on identified mammal pathways and incorporating adjacent wilderness areas would greatly enlarge available habitat for mammal species. And this would have a very positive effect on species persistence time.”

The authors found that linking Yellowstone National Park with Glacier National Park, and Mount Rainier National Park with North Cascades National Park would increase the long-term persistence time of mammal species by a factor of 4.3 relative to the persistence time of species in fragmented, individual parks.

The proposed corridor network would cross two- and four-lane highways, which would require multiple ecological bridges over and under the roadways. Fortunately, highway authorities in the Western U.S. and Canada are beginning to construct such over- and underpasses for wildlife.

“However, a much greater effort will certainly be required if we are to reduce the known adverse impacts of highways on species movement and dispersal,” said Paul Beier, professor emeritus of Northern Arizona University and co-author of the study.

It’s well supported that ecological corridors enhance population persistence of species, but most studies have been small-scale experiments. There are few assessments of the value of ecological linkages at large spatial scales. This study’s analysis drew heavily upon patterns of species loss over time in habitat fragments around the world.

“The analytical approach presented in this paper can provide conservation planners and practitioners with a powerful method of prioritizing and quantifying the value of ecological linkages between protected areas,” said John Halley, professor at the University of Ioannina and co-author of the study.

Over the past two decades, there has been worldwide efforts to establish networks of reserves interconnected by protected corridors. One of the boldest visions was first articulated a quarter century ago by co-author Michael Soulé, professor emeritus at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who passed away before this paper was completed. Soulé advocated to establish a protected area network that would extend from the top of Alaska down to the southern tip of South America at Tierra del Fuego. A more regionally-focused initiative to connect Canada’s Yukon territory to Yellowstone National Park in the northern Rocky Mountains has made considerable progress.

The study’s analysis highlights the positive effects that large-scale conservation initiatives can have on biodiversity conservation. The authors note that enhancing ecological connectivity between protected areas in Western U.S. and Canada could serve as an important template for large-scale biodiversity conservation both nationally and worldwide in the 21st century.

Other authors on the study include Phoebe B. McNeally of the University of Utah and Samuel A. Cushman of the U.S. Forest Service.

#Nature

[spacetimewithstuartgary]

Keeping Tabs on North Cascades Glaciers

Glaciers seem like stoic monuments, resting quietly among alpine peaks. From afar, they appear static and permanent, but for scientists engaging in meticulous fieldwork, the up-close view of the ice offers a vastly different perspective.

On a hot day in August 2024, glaciologist Mauri Pelto and his team worked their way up the Easton Glacier, on the flanks of Mount Baker in Washington. The glacier’s surface was alive with flowing water. A network of small channels fanned out across the ice, sparkling with fresh meltwater. Gurgling rivulets gathered into larger streams and carved channels into the ice. Some of the meltwater tumbled into a hole—called a moulin—making a deep, echoing sound as it disappeared and made its way down to the base of the glacier. Near the glacier’s terminus, a muddy river sent recently melted ice surging downstream to the Baker River and toward the Pacific Ocean.

Mauri is the founder of the North Cascade Glacier Climate Project. He works with his daughter, Jill Pelto, who is both a climate scientist and artist. Each summer, the father-daughter team invites a rotating crew of scientists, journalists, and artists on their field expedition. The 2024 field season marked the 41st year of detailed measurements on 16 different glaciers in Washington’s North Cascade mountains, which stretch 115 miles (185 kilometers) from Snoqualmie Pass to the Canadian border. The project’s mission is to learn how the glaciers across the entire mountain range are responding to climate change.

Previous Winter’s Snow Can Delay Glacial Melt

In the depths of winter, a blanket of snow accumulates on top of glaciers. When warm weather arrives, the covering of snow begins to melt off, first at lower elevations and then reaching higher up the slope. As last winter’s snow melts away, it reveals old, bare ice that is darkened with sediment and jagged with crevasses. Once this ice is exposed to the summer sunshine, the glacier begins to melt in earnest. Patches of bare ice are visible in this photo of Easton Glacier (below), taken in August 2024.

The team hiked up the water-saturated ice under hazy skies, laced with smoke from nearby wildfires. Mauri paused to take stock of the conditions. “We’re at about 6,300 feet (1,900 meters) of elevation,” he said. “Usually this slope has 2 to 5 feet (60 to 150 centimeters) of snow on it in early August, and obviously it has no snow this year. Even in bad years, it used to have some snow.”

Jill described how there used to only be a short window in late summer when the glacial ice had lost its protective snow cover. But now, warm summers leave the ice exposed for much longer, allowing more time for the ice to melt.

Based on decades of working on these glaciers, Mauri estimated the toll of just a single day of melting: “Today we’re going to have around 8 centimeters (3 inches) of melt here. Just in one day,” he said. “That’s 8 centimeters of glacier thinning instead of just snowmelt from the previous winter.”

Mass Balance, ‘The Most Sensitive Climate Indicator’

The overall balance of winter snow compared to summer melt is called the glacier’s mass balance. “It’s like your checkbook,” Mauri explained. “You have your income, that’s the snowfall. Then you have your expenses, and that’s the snow melt.” If a glacier loses more water in the summer than it gains in the winter, it loses mass. By the end of the summer, a glacier needs to have 50 to 60 percent of its surface still covered by snow to stay in balance. When glaciers lose mass year upon year, they begin to retreat, thin, and visibly shrink.

The Peltos calculate mass balance by measuring the position of the snow line and the depth of the snow. They measure the snow depth by driving a metal probe through the snow at regular intervals across the glacier. Satellite images show the position of the snow line, but they can’t easily determine how deep that snow is—that’s where fieldwork comes in. Over two days, the team made 200 snow depth measurements on the Easton Glacier, and they did similar work on 8 other glaciers in the North Cascades this summer.

Mass balance measurements can be an early warning of glacier dynamics. “It’s the most sensitive climate indicator for glaciers because it gives you an annual signal,” Mauri said. By the time changes in the glacier’s size or position become apparent, the glacier has likely gone through several years with a negative mass balance.

A Rapidly Declining Balance

After collecting field measurements in early August, Mauri watches the rest of the melt season with Landsat imagery. For example, the image above shows Mount Baker and Easton Glacier on August 17, 2024, acquired with the OLI-2 (Operational Land Imager-2) on Landsat 9. As the snow line retreats uphill, the combination of satellite data and field measurements allows him to calculate the volume of water that has melted away since the field observations.

The high-resolution images from Landsat 8 and 9 have made Mauri’s job easier. The images “have such good resolution that I can use them to map the migration of the snow line, which is the dividing line between where a glacier is gaining mass and where it’s losing mass,” he said. “And that’s such a key tracker of how a glacier is doing.”

These measurements show a dramatic loss of ice in recent years. Mauri recalls that during the first 30 years he worked on North Cascades glaciers, they were losing around 1.5 feet (50 centimeters) of ice thickness each year. Now they’re losing over 4 feet (125 centimeters) per year. At the same time, the ice has been retreating uphill more than 100 feet (30 meters) every year.

“It’s not just here, it’s everywhere else,” he said with a sweep of his hand across the horizon. “With alpine glaciers around the world, we really see the mass loss is accelerating.”

“Temperatures are just too warm,” he said. Even a normal amount of snowfall is no match for the warming this region has been experiencing throughout the spring, summer, and fall. The winter’s store of snow is “just so easily erased.”

If the Easton Glacier had a bank account, it would be reaching deep into its savings every day of the late summer.

After completing two hard days of fieldwork, the team watched the last threads of alpenglow on the glacier and reflected on their findings. The tone at camp shifted from scientific to personal.

Jill has been working on these glaciers since she was just 16 years old. “It hits me really hard,” she said.

Mauri nodded. “Winter can’t come soon enough. I wish I could wrap the glacier in a blanket and protect it.”

NASA Earth Observatory image by Wanmei Liang, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story and photographs by Karin Kirk, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

[sunaleisocial]

Researchers return to Arctic to test integrated sensor nodes

New Post has been published on https://sunalei.org/news/researchers-return-to-arctic-to-test-integrated-sensor-nodes/

Researchers return to Arctic to test integrated sensor nodes

Shimmering ice extends in all directions as far as the eye can see. Air temperatures plunge to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit and colder with wind chills. Ocean currents drag large swaths of ice floating at sea. Polar bears, narwhals, and other iconic Arctic species roam wild.

For a week this past spring, MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers Ben Evans and Dave Whelihan called this place — drifting some 200 nautical miles offshore from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, on the frozen Beaufort Sea in the Arctic Circle — home. Two ice runways for small aircraft provided their only way in and out of this remote wilderness; heated tents provided their only shelter from the bitter cold.

Play video

Video: MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Here, in the northernmost region on Earth, Evans and Whelihan joined other groups conducting fieldwork in the Arctic as part of Operation Ice Camp (OIC) 2024, an operational exercise run by the U.S. Navy’s Arctic Submarine Laboratory (ASL). Riding on snowmobiles and helicopters, the duo deployed a small set of integrated sensor nodes that measure everything from atmospheric conditions to ice properties to the structure of water deep below the surface.

Ultimately, they envision deploying an unattended network of these low-cost sensor nodes across the Arctic to increase scientific understanding of the trending loss in sea ice extent and thickness. Warming much faster than the rest of the world, the Arctic is a ground zero for climate change, with cascading impacts across the planet that include rising sea levels and extreme weather. Openings in the sea ice cover, or leads, are concerning not only for climate change but also for global geopolitical competition over transit routes and natural resources. A synoptic view of the physical processes happening above, at, and below sea ice is key to determining why the ice is diminishing. In turn, this knowledge can help predict when and where fractures will occur, to inform planning and decision-making.

Winter “camp”

Every two years, OIC, previously called Ice Exercise (ICEX), provides a way for the international community to access the Arctic for operational readiness exercises and scientific research, with the focus switching back and forth; this year’s focus was scientific research. Coordination, planning, and execution of the month-long operation is led by ASL, a division of the U.S. Navy’s Undersea Warfighting Development Center responsible for ensuring the submarine force can effectively operate in the Arctic Ocean.

Making this inhospitable and unforgiving environment safe for participants takes considerable effort. The critical first step is determining where to set up camp. In the weeks before the first participants arrived for OIC 2024, ASL — with assistance from the U.S. National Ice Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and UIC Science — flew over large sheets of floating ice (ice floes) identified via satellite imagery, landed on some they thought might be viable sites, and drilled through the ice to check its thickness. The ice floe must not only be large enough to accommodate construction of a camp and two runways but also feature both multiyear ice and first-year ice. Multiyear ice is thick and strong but rough, making it ideal for camp setup, while the smooth but thinner first-year ice is better suited for building runways. Once the appropriate ice floe was selected, ASL began to haul in equipment and food, build infrastructure like lodging and a command center, and fly in a small group before fully operationalizing the site. They also identified locations near the camp for two Navy submarines to surface through the ice.

The more than 200 participants represented U.S. and allied forces and scientists from research organizations and universities. Distinguished visitors from government offices also attended OIC to see the unique Arctic environment and unfolding challenges firsthand.

“Our ASL hosts do incredible work to build this camp from scratch and keep us alive,” Evans says.

Evans and Whelihan, part of the laboratory’s Advanced Undersea Systems and Technology Group, first trekked to the Arctic in March 2022 for ICEX 2022. (The laboratory in general has been participating since 2016 in these events, the first iteration of which occurred in 1946.) There, they deployed a suite of commercial off-the-shelf sensors for detecting acoustic (sound) and seismic (vibration) events created by ice fractures or collisions, and for measuring salinity, temperature, and pressure in the water below the ice. They also deployed a prototype fiber-based temperature sensor array developed by the laboratory and research partners for precisely measuring temperature across the entire water column at one location, and a University of New Hampshire (UNH)−supplied echosounder to investigate the different layers present in the water column. In this maiden voyage, their goals were to assess how these sensors fared in the harsh Arctic conditions and to collect a dataset from which characteristic signatures of ice-fracturing events could begin to be identified. These events would be correlated with weather and water conditions to eventually offer a predictive capability.

“We saw real phenomenology in our data,” Whelihan says. “But, we’re not ice experts. What we’re good at here at the laboratory is making and deploying sensors. That’s our place in the world of climate science: to be a data provider. In fact, we hope to open source all of our data this year so that ice scientists can access and analyze them and then we can make enhanced sensors and collect more data.”

Interim ice

In the two years since that expedition, they and their colleagues have been modifying their sensor designs and deployment strategies. As Evans and Whelihan learned at ICEX 2022, to be resilient in the Arctic, a sensor must not only be kept warm and dry during deployment but also be deployed in a way to prevent breaking. Moreover, sufficient power and data links are needed to collect and access sensor data.

“We can make cold-weather electronics, no problem,” Whelihan says. “The two drivers are operating the sensors in an energy-starved environment — the colder it is, the worse batteries perform — and keeping them from getting destroyed when ice floes crash together as leads in the ice open up.”

Their work in the interim to OIC 2024 involved integrating the individual sensors into hardened sensor nodes and practicing deploying these nodes in easier-to-access locations. To facilitate incorporating additional sensors into a node, Whelihan spearheaded the development of an open-source, easily extensible hardware and software architecture.

In March 2023, the Lincoln Laboratory team deployed three sensor nodes for a week on Huron Bay off Lake Superior through Michigan Tech’s Great Lakes Research Center (GLRC). Engineers from GLRC helped the team safely set up an operations base on the ice. They demonstrated that the sensor integration worked, and the sensor nodes proved capable of surviving for at least a week in relatively harsh conditions. The researchers recorded seismic activity on all three nodes, corresponding to some ice breaking further up the bay.

“Proving our sensor node in an Arctic surrogate environment provided a stepping stone for testing in the real Arctic,” Evans says.

Evans then received an invitation from Ignatius Rigor, the coordinator of the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), to join him on an upcoming trip to Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, and deploy one of their seismic sensor nodes on the ice there (with support from UIC Science). The IABP maintains a network of Arctic buoys equipped with meteorological and oceanic sensors. Data collected by these buoys are shared with the operational and research communities to support real-time operations (e.g., forecasting sea ice conditions for coastal Alaskans) and climate research. However, these buoys are typically limited in the frequency at which they collect data, so phenomenology on shorter time scales important to climate change may be missed. Moreover, these buoys are difficult and expensive to deploy because they are designed to survive in the harshest environments for years at a time.  

The laboratory-developed sensor nodes could offer an inexpensive, easier-to-deploy option for collecting more data over shorter periods of time. In April 2023, Evans placed a sensor node in Utqiaġvik on landfast sea ice, which is stationary ice anchored to the seabed just off the coast. During the sensor node’s week-long deployment, a big piece of drift ice (ice not attached to the seabed or other fixed object) broke off and crashed into the landfast ice. The event was recorded by a radar maintained by the University of Alaska Fairbanks that monitors sea ice movement in near real time to warn of any instability. Though this phenomenology is not exactly the same as that expected for Arctic sea ice, the researchers were encouraged to see seismic activity recorded by their sensor node.

In December 2023, Evans and Whelihan headed to New Hampshire, where they conducted echosounder testing in UNH’s engineering test tank and on the Piscataqua River. Together with their UNH partners, they sought to determine whether a low-cost, hobby-grade echosounder could detect the same phenomenology of interest as the high-fidelity UNH echosounder, which would be far too costly to deploy in sensor nodes across the Arctic. In the test tank and on the river, the low-cost echosounder proved capable of detecting masses of water moving in the water column, but with considerably less structural detail than afforded by the higher-cost option. Seeing such dynamics is important to inferring where water comes from and understanding how it affects sea ice breakup — for example, how warm water moving in from the Pacific Ocean is coming into contact with and melting the ice. So, the laboratory researchers and UNH partners have been building a medium-fidelity, medium-cost echosounder.

In January 2024, Evans and Whelihan — along with Jehan Diaz, a fellow staff member in their research group — returned to GLRC. With logistical support from their GLRC hosts, they snowmobiled across the ice on Portage Lake, where they practiced several activities to prepare for OIC 2024: augering (drilling) six-inch holes in the ice, albeit in thinner ice than that in the Arctic; placing their long, pipe-like sensor nodes through these holes; operating cold-hardened drones to interact with the nodes; and retrieving the nodes. They also practiced sensor calibration by hitting the ice with an iron bar some distance away from the nodes and correlating this distance with the resulting measured acoustic and seismic intensity.

“Our time at GLRC helped us mitigate a lot of risks and prepare to deploy these complex systems in the Arctic,” Whelihan says.

Arctic again

To get to OIC, Evans and Whelihan first flew to Prudhoe Bay and reacclimated to the frigid temperatures. They spent the next two days at the Deadhorse Aviation Center hangar inspecting their equipment for transit-induced damage, which included squashed cables and connectors that required rejiggering.

“That’s part of the adventure story,” Evans says. “Getting stuff to Prudhoe Bay is not your standard shipping; it’s ice-road trucking.”

From there, they boarded a small aircraft to the ice camp.

“Even though this trip marked our second time coming here, it was still disorienting,” Evans continues. “You land in the middle of nowhere on a small aircraft after a couple-hour flight. You get out bundled in all of your Arctic gear in this remote, pristine environment.”

After unloading and rechecking their equipment for any damage, calibrating their sensors, and attending safety briefings, they were ready to begin their experiments.

An icy situation

Inside the project tent, Evans and Whelihan deployed the UNH-supplied echosounder and a suite of ground-truth sensors on an automated winch to profile water conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD). Echosounder data needed to be validated with associated CTD data to determine the source of the water in the water column. Ocean properties change as a function of depth, and these changes are important to capture, in part because masses of water coming in from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans arrive at different depths. Though masses of warm water have always existed, climate change–related mechanisms are now bringing them into contact with the ice.  

“As ice breaks up, wind can directly interact with the ocean because it’s lacking that barrier of ice cover,” Evans explains. “Kinetic energy from the wind causes mixing in the ocean; all the warm water that used to stay at depth instead gets brought up and interacts with the ice.”

They also deployed four of their sensor nodes several miles outside of camp. To access this deployment site, they rode on a sled pulled via a snowmobile driven by Ann Hill, an ASL field party leader trained in Arctic survival and wildlife encounters. The temperature that day was -55 F. At such a dangerously cold temperature, frostnip and frostbite are all too common. To avoid removal of gloves or other protective clothing, the researchers enabled the nodes with WiFi capability (the nodes also have a satellite communications link to transmit low-bandwidth data). Large amounts of data are automatically downloaded over WiFi to an arm-wearable haptic (touch-based) system when a user walks up to a node.

“It was so cold that the holes we were drilling in the ice to reach the water column were freezing solid,” Evans explains. “We realized it was going to be quite an ordeal to get our sensor nodes out of the ice.”

So, after drilling a big hole in the ice, they deployed only one central node with all the sensor components: a commercial echosounder, an underwater microphone, a seismometer, and a weather station. They deployed the other three nodes, each with a seismometer and weather station, atop the ice.

“One of our design considerations was flexibility,” Whelihan says. “Each node can integrate as few or as many sensors as desired.”

The small sensor array was only collecting data for about a day when Evans and Whelihan, who were at the time on a helicopter, saw that their initial field site had become completely cut off from camp by a 150-meter-wide ice lead. They quickly returned to camp to load the tools needed to pull the nodes, which were no longer accessible by snowmobile. Two recently arrived staff members from the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies offered to help them retrieve their nodes. The helicopter landed on the ice floe near a crack, and the pilot told them they had half an hour to complete their recovery mission. By the time they had retrieved all four sensors, the crack had increased from thumb to fist size.

“When we got home, we analyzed the collected sensor data and saw a spike in seismic activity corresponding to what could be the major ice-fracturing event that necessitated our node recovery mission,” Whelihan says.  

The researchers also conducted experiments with their Arctic-hardened drones to evaluate their utility for retrieving sensor node data and to develop concepts of operations for future capabilities.

“The idea is to have some autonomous vehicle land next to the node, download data, and come back, like a data mule, rather than having to expend energy getting data off the system, say via high-speed satellite communications,” Whelihan says. “We also started testing whether the drone is capable on its own of finding sensors that are constantly moving and getting close enough to them. Even flying in 25-mile-per-hour winds, and at very low temperatures, the drone worked well.”

Aside from carrying out their experiments, the researchers had the opportunity to interact with other participants. Their “roommates” were ice scientists from Norway and Finland. They met other ice and water scientists conducting chemistry experiments on the salt content of ice taken from different depths in the ice sheet (when ocean water freezes, salt tends to get pushed out of the ice). One of their collaborators — Nicholas Schmerr, an ice seismologist from the University of Maryland — placed high-quality geophones (for measuring vibrations in the ice) alongside their nodes deployed on the camp field site. They also met with junior enlisted submariners, who temporarily came to camp to open up spots on the submarine for distinguished visitors.

“Part of what we’ve been doing over the last three years is building connections within the Arctic community,” Evans says. “Every time I start to get a handle on the phenomenology that exists out here, I learn something new. For example, I didn’t know that sometimes a layer of ice forms a little bit deeper than the primary ice sheet, and you can actually see fish swimming in between the layers.”

“One day, we were out with our field party leader, who saw fog while she was looking at the horizon and said the ice was breaking up,” Whelihan adds. “I said, ‘Wait, what?’ As she explained, when an ice lead forms, fog comes out of the ocean. Sure enough, within 30 minutes, we had quarter-mile visibility, whereas beforehand it was unlimited.”

Back to solid ground

Before leaving, Whelihan and Evans retrieved and packed up all the remaining sensor nodes, adopting the “leave no trace” philosophy of preserving natural places.

“Only a limited number of people get access to this special environment,” Whelihan says. “We hope to grow our footprint at these events in future years, giving opportunities to other laboratory staff members to attend.”

In the meantime, they will analyze the collected sensor data and refine their sensor node design. One design consideration is how to replenish the sensors’ battery power. A potential path forward is to leverage the temperature difference between water and air, and harvest energy from the water currents moving under ice floes. Wind energy may provide another viable solution. Solar power would only work for part of the year because the Arctic Circle undergoes periods of complete darkness.

The team is also seeking external sponsorship to continue their work engineering sensing systems that advance the scientific community’s understanding of changes to Arctic ice; this work is currently funded through Lincoln Laboratory’s internally administered R&D portfolio on climate change. And, in learning more about this changing environment and its critical importance to strategic interests, they are considering other sensing problems that they could tackle using their Arctic engineering expertise.

“The Arctic is becoming a more visible and important region because of how it’s changing,” Evans concludes. “Going forward as a country, we must be able to operate there.”

[jcmarchi]

Researchers return to Arctic to test integrated sensor nodes

New Post has been published on https://thedigitalinsider.com/researchers-return-to-arctic-to-test-integrated-sensor-nodes/

Researchers return to Arctic to test integrated sensor nodes

Shimmering ice extends in all directions as far as the eye can see. Air temperatures plunge to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit and colder with wind chills. Ocean currents drag large swaths of ice floating at sea. Polar bears, narwhals, and other iconic Arctic species roam wild.

For a week this past spring, MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers Ben Evans and Dave Whelihan called this place — drifting some 200 nautical miles offshore from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, on the frozen Beaufort Sea in the Arctic Circle — home. Two ice runways for small aircraft provided their only way in and out of this remote wilderness; heated tents provided their only shelter from the bitter cold.

Play video

Video: MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Here, in the northernmost region on Earth, Evans and Whelihan joined other groups conducting fieldwork in the Arctic as part of Operation Ice Camp (OIC) 2024, an operational exercise run by the U.S. Navy’s Arctic Submarine Laboratory (ASL). Riding on snowmobiles and helicopters, the duo deployed a small set of integrated sensor nodes that measure everything from atmospheric conditions to ice properties to the structure of water deep below the surface.

Ultimately, they envision deploying an unattended network of these low-cost sensor nodes across the Arctic to increase scientific understanding of the trending loss in sea ice extent and thickness. Warming much faster than the rest of the world, the Arctic is a ground zero for climate change, with cascading impacts across the planet that include rising sea levels and extreme weather. Openings in the sea ice cover, or leads, are concerning not only for climate change but also for global geopolitical competition over transit routes and natural resources. A synoptic view of the physical processes happening above, at, and below sea ice is key to determining why the ice is diminishing. In turn, this knowledge can help predict when and where fractures will occur, to inform planning and decision-making.

Winter “camp”

Every two years, OIC, previously called Ice Exercise (ICEX), provides a way for the international community to access the Arctic for operational readiness exercises and scientific research, with the focus switching back and forth; this year’s focus was scientific research. Coordination, planning, and execution of the month-long operation is led by ASL, a division of the U.S. Navy’s Undersea Warfighting Development Center responsible for ensuring the submarine force can effectively operate in the Arctic Ocean.

Making this inhospitable and unforgiving environment safe for participants takes considerable effort. The critical first step is determining where to set up camp. In the weeks before the first participants arrived for OIC 2024, ASL — with assistance from the U.S. National Ice Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and UIC Science — flew over large sheets of floating ice (ice floes) identified via satellite imagery, landed on some they thought might be viable sites, and drilled through the ice to check its thickness. The ice floe must not only be large enough to accommodate construction of a camp and two runways but also feature both multiyear ice and first-year ice. Multiyear ice is thick and strong but rough, making it ideal for camp setup, while the smooth but thinner first-year ice is better suited for building runways. Once the appropriate ice floe was selected, ASL began to haul in equipment and food, build infrastructure like lodging and a command center, and fly in a small group before fully operationalizing the site. They also identified locations near the camp for two Navy submarines to surface through the ice.

The more than 200 participants represented U.S. and allied forces and scientists from research organizations and universities. Distinguished visitors from government offices also attended OIC to see the unique Arctic environment and unfolding challenges firsthand.

“Our ASL hosts do incredible work to build this camp from scratch and keep us alive,” Evans says.

Evans and Whelihan, part of the laboratory’s Advanced Undersea Systems and Technology Group, first trekked to the Arctic in March 2022 for ICEX 2022. (The laboratory in general has been participating since 2016 in these events, the first iteration of which occurred in 1946.) There, they deployed a suite of commercial off-the-shelf sensors for detecting acoustic (sound) and seismic (vibration) events created by ice fractures or collisions, and for measuring salinity, temperature, and pressure in the water below the ice. They also deployed a prototype fiber-based temperature sensor array developed by the laboratory and research partners for precisely measuring temperature across the entire water column at one location, and a University of New Hampshire (UNH)−supplied echosounder to investigate the different layers present in the water column. In this maiden voyage, their goals were to assess how these sensors fared in the harsh Arctic conditions and to collect a dataset from which characteristic signatures of ice-fracturing events could begin to be identified. These events would be correlated with weather and water conditions to eventually offer a predictive capability.

“We saw real phenomenology in our data,” Whelihan says. “But, we’re not ice experts. What we’re good at here at the laboratory is making and deploying sensors. That’s our place in the world of climate science: to be a data provider. In fact, we hope to open source all of our data this year so that ice scientists can access and analyze them and then we can make enhanced sensors and collect more data.”

Interim ice

In the two years since that expedition, they and their colleagues have been modifying their sensor designs and deployment strategies. As Evans and Whelihan learned at ICEX 2022, to be resilient in the Arctic, a sensor must not only be kept warm and dry during deployment but also be deployed in a way to prevent breaking. Moreover, sufficient power and data links are needed to collect and access sensor data.

“We can make cold-weather electronics, no problem,” Whelihan says. “The two drivers are operating the sensors in an energy-starved environment — the colder it is, the worse batteries perform — and keeping them from getting destroyed when ice floes crash together as leads in the ice open up.”

Their work in the interim to OIC 2024 involved integrating the individual sensors into hardened sensor nodes and practicing deploying these nodes in easier-to-access locations. To facilitate incorporating additional sensors into a node, Whelihan spearheaded the development of an open-source, easily extensible hardware and software architecture.

In March 2023, the Lincoln Laboratory team deployed three sensor nodes for a week on Huron Bay off Lake Superior through Michigan Tech’s Great Lakes Research Center (GLRC). Engineers from GLRC helped the team safely set up an operations base on the ice. They demonstrated that the sensor integration worked, and the sensor nodes proved capable of surviving for at least a week in relatively harsh conditions. The researchers recorded seismic activity on all three nodes, corresponding to some ice breaking further up the bay.

“Proving our sensor node in an Arctic surrogate environment provided a stepping stone for testing in the real Arctic,” Evans says.

Evans then received an invitation from Ignatius Rigor, the coordinator of the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), to join him on an upcoming trip to Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, and deploy one of their seismic sensor nodes on the ice there (with support from UIC Science). The IABP maintains a network of Arctic buoys equipped with meteorological and oceanic sensors. Data collected by these buoys are shared with the operational and research communities to support real-time operations (e.g., forecasting sea ice conditions for coastal Alaskans) and climate research. However, these buoys are typically limited in the frequency at which they collect data, so phenomenology on shorter time scales important to climate change may be missed. Moreover, these buoys are difficult and expensive to deploy because they are designed to survive in the harshest environments for years at a time.  

The laboratory-developed sensor nodes could offer an inexpensive, easier-to-deploy option for collecting more data over shorter periods of time. In April 2023, Evans placed a sensor node in Utqiaġvik on landfast sea ice, which is stationary ice anchored to the seabed just off the coast. During the sensor node’s week-long deployment, a big piece of drift ice (ice not attached to the seabed or other fixed object) broke off and crashed into the landfast ice. The event was recorded by a radar maintained by the University of Alaska Fairbanks that monitors sea ice movement in near real time to warn of any instability. Though this phenomenology is not exactly the same as that expected for Arctic sea ice, the researchers were encouraged to see seismic activity recorded by their sensor node.

In December 2023, Evans and Whelihan headed to New Hampshire, where they conducted echosounder testing in UNH’s engineering test tank and on the Piscataqua River. Together with their UNH partners, they sought to determine whether a low-cost, hobby-grade echosounder could detect the same phenomenology of interest as the high-fidelity UNH echosounder, which would be far too costly to deploy in sensor nodes across the Arctic. In the test tank and on the river, the low-cost echosounder proved capable of detecting masses of water moving in the water column, but with considerably less structural detail than afforded by the higher-cost option. Seeing such dynamics is important to inferring where water comes from and understanding how it affects sea ice breakup — for example, how warm water moving in from the Pacific Ocean is coming into contact with and melting the ice. So, the laboratory researchers and UNH partners have been building a medium-fidelity, medium-cost echosounder.

In January 2024, Evans and Whelihan — along with Jehan Diaz, a fellow staff member in their research group — returned to GLRC. With logistical support from their GLRC hosts, they snowmobiled across the ice on Portage Lake, where they practiced several activities to prepare for OIC 2024: augering (drilling) six-inch holes in the ice, albeit in thinner ice than that in the Arctic; placing their long, pipe-like sensor nodes through these holes; operating cold-hardened drones to interact with the nodes; and retrieving the nodes. They also practiced sensor calibration by hitting the ice with an iron bar some distance away from the nodes and correlating this distance with the resulting measured acoustic and seismic intensity.

“Our time at GLRC helped us mitigate a lot of risks and prepare to deploy these complex systems in the Arctic,” Whelihan says.

Arctic again

To get to OIC, Evans and Whelihan first flew to Prudhoe Bay and reacclimated to the frigid temperatures. They spent the next two days at the Deadhorse Aviation Center hangar inspecting their equipment for transit-induced damage, which included squashed cables and connectors that required rejiggering.

“That’s part of the adventure story,” Evans says. “Getting stuff to Prudhoe Bay is not your standard shipping; it’s ice-road trucking.”

From there, they boarded a small aircraft to the ice camp.

“Even though this trip marked our second time coming here, it was still disorienting,” Evans continues. “You land in the middle of nowhere on a small aircraft after a couple-hour flight. You get out bundled in all of your Arctic gear in this remote, pristine environment.”

After unloading and rechecking their equipment for any damage, calibrating their sensors, and attending safety briefings, they were ready to begin their experiments.

An icy situation

Inside the project tent, Evans and Whelihan deployed the UNH-supplied echosounder and a suite of ground-truth sensors on an automated winch to profile water conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD). Echosounder data needed to be validated with associated CTD data to determine the source of the water in the water column. Ocean properties change as a function of depth, and these changes are important to capture, in part because masses of water coming in from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans arrive at different depths. Though masses of warm water have always existed, climate change–related mechanisms are now bringing them into contact with the ice.  

“As ice breaks up, wind can directly interact with the ocean because it’s lacking that barrier of ice cover,” Evans explains. “Kinetic energy from the wind causes mixing in the ocean; all the warm water that used to stay at depth instead gets brought up and interacts with the ice.”

They also deployed four of their sensor nodes several miles outside of camp. To access this deployment site, they rode on a sled pulled via a snowmobile driven by Ann Hill, an ASL field party leader trained in Arctic survival and wildlife encounters. The temperature that day was -55 F. At such a dangerously cold temperature, frostnip and frostbite are all too common. To avoid removal of gloves or other protective clothing, the researchers enabled the nodes with WiFi capability (the nodes also have a satellite communications link to transmit low-bandwidth data). Large amounts of data are automatically downloaded over WiFi to an arm-wearable haptic (touch-based) system when a user walks up to a node.

“It was so cold that the holes we were drilling in the ice to reach the water column were freezing solid,” Evans explains. “We realized it was going to be quite an ordeal to get our sensor nodes out of the ice.”

So, after drilling a big hole in the ice, they deployed only one central node with all the sensor components: a commercial echosounder, an underwater microphone, a seismometer, and a weather station. They deployed the other three nodes, each with a seismometer and weather station, atop the ice.

“One of our design considerations was flexibility,” Whelihan says. “Each node can integrate as few or as many sensors as desired.”

The small sensor array was only collecting data for about a day when Evans and Whelihan, who were at the time on a helicopter, saw that their initial field site had become completely cut off from camp by a 150-meter-wide ice lead. They quickly returned to camp to load the tools needed to pull the nodes, which were no longer accessible by snowmobile. Two recently arrived staff members from the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies offered to help them retrieve their nodes. The helicopter landed on the ice floe near a crack, and the pilot told them they had half an hour to complete their recovery mission. By the time they had retrieved all four sensors, the crack had increased from thumb to fist size.

“When we got home, we analyzed the collected sensor data and saw a spike in seismic activity corresponding to what could be the major ice-fracturing event that necessitated our node recovery mission,” Whelihan says.  

The researchers also conducted experiments with their Arctic-hardened drones to evaluate their utility for retrieving sensor node data and to develop concepts of operations for future capabilities.

“The idea is to have some autonomous vehicle land next to the node, download data, and come back, like a data mule, rather than having to expend energy getting data off the system, say via high-speed satellite communications,” Whelihan says. “We also started testing whether the drone is capable on its own of finding sensors that are constantly moving and getting close enough to them. Even flying in 25-mile-per-hour winds, and at very low temperatures, the drone worked well.”

Aside from carrying out their experiments, the researchers had the opportunity to interact with other participants. Their “roommates” were ice scientists from Norway and Finland. They met other ice and water scientists conducting chemistry experiments on the salt content of ice taken from different depths in the ice sheet (when ocean water freezes, salt tends to get pushed out of the ice). One of their collaborators — Nicholas Schmerr, an ice seismologist from the University of Maryland — placed high-quality geophones (for measuring vibrations in the ice) alongside their nodes deployed on the camp field site. They also met with junior enlisted submariners, who temporarily came to camp to open up spots on the submarine for distinguished visitors.

“Part of what we’ve been doing over the last three years is building connections within the Arctic community,” Evans says. “Every time I start to get a handle on the phenomenology that exists out here, I learn something new. For example, I didn’t know that sometimes a layer of ice forms a little bit deeper than the primary ice sheet, and you can actually see fish swimming in between the layers.”

“One day, we were out with our field party leader, who saw fog while she was looking at the horizon and said the ice was breaking up,” Whelihan adds. “I said, ‘Wait, what?’ As she explained, when an ice lead forms, fog comes out of the ocean. Sure enough, within 30 minutes, we had quarter-mile visibility, whereas beforehand it was unlimited.”

Back to solid ground

Before leaving, Whelihan and Evans retrieved and packed up all the remaining sensor nodes, adopting the “leave no trace” philosophy of preserving natural places.

“Only a limited number of people get access to this special environment,” Whelihan says. “We hope to grow our footprint at these events in future years, giving opportunities to other laboratory staff members to attend.”

In the meantime, they will analyze the collected sensor data and refine their sensor node design. One design consideration is how to replenish the sensors’ battery power. A potential path forward is to leverage the temperature difference between water and air, and harvest energy from the water currents moving under ice floes. Wind energy may provide another viable solution. Solar power would only work for part of the year because the Arctic Circle undergoes periods of complete darkness.

The team is also seeking external sponsorship to continue their work engineering sensing systems that advance the scientific community’s understanding of changes to Arctic ice; this work is currently funded through Lincoln Laboratory’s internally administered R&D portfolio on climate change. And, in learning more about this changing environment and its critical importance to strategic interests, they are considering other sensing problems that they could tackle using their Arctic engineering expertise.

“The Arctic is becoming a more visible and important region because of how it’s changing,” Evans concludes. “Going forward as a country, we must be able to operate there.”

[sittingonfilm]

Q&A with ChatGPT (free version)

Q: [moi]

Which of our major infrastructures for basic utilities would be the most likely to break down first?

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A: [chatgpt]

1. **Water Supply and Sanitation:**

- **Vulnerability:** Water infrastructure is highly vulnerable to climate change, pollution, and over-extraction. Droughts, contamination of water sources, and aging infrastructure can lead to significant disruptions.

- **Impact:** Water is essential for life, and any disruption in its supply or sanitation services can have immediate and severe public health consequences.

2. **Electricity Grid:**

- **Vulnerability:** The electrical grid is complex and interconnected, making it susceptible to cascading failures. Extreme weather events, cyberattacks, and aging infrastructure can lead to prolonged blackouts.

- **Impact:** Electricity is critical for almost all modern conveniences and essential services, including hospitals, communication systems, and water treatment plants.

3. **Food Supply Chains:**

- **Vulnerability:** Food supply chains are highly dependent on transportation, weather conditions, and global trade. Disruptions can occur due to natural disasters, economic instability, or geopolitical conflicts.

- **Impact:** Food shortages can quickly lead to malnutrition, social unrest, and a breakdown of order.

4. **Communication Networks:**

- **Vulnerability:** Communication networks, including the internet and phone systems, are susceptible to cyberattacks, physical attacks on infrastructure, and natural disasters.

- **Impact:** Reliable communication is essential for coordination during crises, maintaining social order, and running modern economies.

5. **Transportation Systems:**

- **Vulnerability:** Transportation infrastructure, including roads, railways, and ports, can be disrupted by extreme weather, maintenance issues, and fuel shortages.

- **Impact:** Disruptions in transportation affect the movement of goods and people, leading to economic slowdowns and difficulties in accessing essential services.

6. **Healthcare Systems:**

- **Vulnerability:** Healthcare systems can be overwhelmed by pandemics, economic constraints, and infrastructure failures (e.g., power outages affecting hospitals).

- **Impact:** A breakdown in healthcare can lead to increased mortality and morbidity, further destabilizing society.

### Factors Influencing Infrastructure Breakdown

1. **Aging Infrastructure:** Many utilities in developed countries are based on infrastructure that is decades old and requires significant maintenance and upgrades.

2. **Climate Change:** Increasingly severe weather patterns and natural disasters can stress and damage infrastructure, leading to more frequent and prolonged outages.

3. **Cybersecurity Threats:** The increasing reliance on digital control systems makes infrastructure vulnerable to cyberattacks.

4. **Economic Instability:** Economic crises can reduce the funding available for maintenance and upgrades, exacerbating the decline of infrastructure.

5. **Resource Depletion:** As natural resources become scarcer, the ability to maintain and expand infrastructure diminishes.

While it's difficult to predict with certainty which infrastructure would fail first, water supply and electricity are often considered the most critical and vulnerable due to their foundational role in supporting other systems and the immediate consequences of their failure.

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[wolf-grimoire]

the complex liminal nightmare of extinction can be for everyone now

When you’re uncertain what you’re looking at, the catastrophic footprint of the beetle called the Agrilus planipennis Fairmaireis doesn’t really resemble a crisis. Perhaps it’s a fungus? Some genetic anomoly in the patterning and color of the ash tree’s bark?—maybe a blight at worst… Something like a pale vegetal rash.

       Then you might notice how many of these trees are lying dead and dry among so many other thriving species. When you look closer, you notice half of the ash trees you’re passing have been cut off at the stump, perhaps still lying where they fell.

       When it hits you and you realize they are dying of some sort of disease innate to the ash, it’s impossible to avoid pivoting immediately to the dire numbers literally surrounding you.

       In the lowland forests below the bluffs of the driftless, I have walked with a sinking feeling. A forest of blighted corpses. Not a single ash in sight without some obvious symptom of the infection. In a woods below the bluffs I stood surrounded by a swift extinction. I could touch it. See it scattered everywhere. It was marked in blue spraypaint. But as horrifying as it was to behold at that moment I know the strange liminal nature of extinction now—because it was the thought of this forest ten years in the future that made me feel hopeless, that turned the pit in my guts rancid.

       The beetle comes and does its thing. Then it leaves and the forest is devastated. Every last ash dead or proactively cut down. And then the cascade of death actually begins. Any dependent species will fade quickly. In the cedar—ash muskegs north of the Mississippi’s headwaters, the loss of the ash trees would mean a rapid shift in the understory. Shifts in animal and bird species. In the same region, lake shores would be rapidly and dramatically altered, and the growing bald eagle population would lose critical nesting grounds. From Minnesota’s wild rice habitats to the mountains of Appalachia where mixed forest habitats would be equally ravaged, the total loss of ecological balance cannot be comprehended nor computed in the present.

       The emerald ash borer extinction event is a nightmare playing out in silent eminations and formlessness, liminal agonies, networks of loss in which a single species of beetle—ordinary in its original habitat—can no longer be comprehended as such.

       This is not an isolated event. Extinctions are occurring for reasons appallingly similar in the python-infested Everglades. While technocratic liberalism and the moralizing laptop class fed everyone else to the climate gods, their children ordered exotic pets on a corporation called Amazon, became bored with them, and stupidly and fatefully released them into already vulnerable habitats. Very real individuals are very much responsible for North America’s countless imploding ecologies, and they aren’t evil industrials cracking whips inside factories. The simple stupid greed of a nice suburban family, as it turns out, can be just as catastrophic as a thousand logging crews.

[travelpointturkey]

Travel to Turkey: A Comprehensive Guide

Travel to Turkey: A Comprehensive Guide

Turkey, a transcontinental nation spanning Asia and Europe, is a captivating blend of rich history, vibrant culture, and stunning natural beauty. From the bustling streets of Istanbul to the serene beaches of the Mediterranean coast, Turkey offers an abundance of experiences for travelers of all interests. Whether you're seeking cultural immersion, historical exploration, or simply relaxation, Turkey has something to offer everyone.

Planning Your Trip

Visas: Citizens of many countries can enter Turkey without a visa for stays up to 90 days. However, it's always advisable to check visa requirements with your nearest Turkish embassy or consulate before departure.

Best Time to Visit: Turkey enjoys a diverse climate, with warm summers and mild winters. The peak tourist season is from June to August, offering pleasant weather and lively atmosphere. Shoulder seasons (April-May and September-October) provide a more relaxed experience with fewer crowds.

Transportation: Turkey boasts a well-connected transportation network, including extensive domestic flights, comfortable buses, and modern trains. Istanbul serves as the major transportation hub, with direct flights connecting to major cities worldwide.

Exploring Turkey's Treasures

Istanbul: Immerse yourself in the captivating history and culture of Istanbul, where ancient Byzantine and Ottoman landmarks seamlessly blend with modern life. Visit the awe-inspiring Hagia Sophia, stroll through the bustling Grand Bazaar, and admire the breathtaking views from atop the Galata Tower.

Cappadocia: Discover the otherworldly landscapes of Cappadocia, a region renowned for its unique rock formations, known as fairy chimneys. Take a hot air balloon ride to witness the mesmerizing sunrise over the valleys, or explore the underground cities and cave churches that honeycomb the region.

Mediterranean Coast: Indulge in the sun-kissed shores of Turkey's Mediterranean coast, where turquoise waters lap against golden beaches. Relax on the renowned beaches of Antalya, explore the ancient ruins of Side, or embark on a boat trip to discover the picturesque coves and islands.

Pamukkale: Marvel at the surreal beauty of Pamukkale, a natural wonder adorned with cascading travertine terraces and azure pools. Bathe in the mineral-rich waters, renowned for their therapeutic properties, and explore the ruins of the ancient city of Hierapolis.

Cultural Delights and Culinary Adventures

Turkish Cuisine: Embark on a culinary adventure by savoring the flavors of Turkish cuisine, a delightful fusion of Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, and Central Asian influences. Indulge in succulent kebabs, aromatic mezze platters, and mouthwatering desserts like baklava and Turkish delight.

Hamam Experience: Immerse yourself in the traditional Turkish bath ritual, known as hamam. Experience the soothing heat of the sauna, followed by a rejuvenating massage and invigorating scrub.

Turkish Bazaar Shopping: Delve into the vibrant atmosphere of a Turkish bazaar, where a kaleidoscope of colors, scents, and sounds awaits. Haggle for unique souvenirs, handcrafted goods, and traditional spices.

Additional Tips

Learn Basic Turkish Phrases: Learning a few basic Turkish phrases will enhance your interactions with locals and add a touch of authenticity to your trip.

Respect Local Customs: Be mindful of local customs and dress modestly when visiting religious sites.

Bargaining: Bargaining is common practice in bazaars and smaller shops. Embrace the experience and enjoy the art of negotiation.

Currency Exchange: The Turkish Lira (TRY) is the official currency. Money exchange services are widely available, and major credit cards are accepted in most tourist establishments.

Tipping: Tipping is not customary in restaurants, but small tips are appreciated for exceptional service.

Turkey beckons with its rich tapestry of history, culture, and natural beauty. By following these tips and planning your itinerary carefully, you can create an unforgettable Turkish adventure that will leave you yearning for more.

[andrewhunt1155]

The Wildlife and Natural Beauty of Gilroy, California.

Nestled in the southern part of Santa Clara County, Gilroy, California, is a gem often overshadowed by the bustling tech-centric cities of Silicon Valley. Known primarily for its annual Garlic Festival, Gilroy offers far more than its famous aromatic bulb. It is a haven for nature enthusiasts, boasting a rich tapestry of wildlife and stunning natural landscapes that enchant visitors and locals alike. From sprawling parks and lush hiking trails to diverse ecosystems teeming with wildlife, Gilroy, California is a sanctuary of natural beauty waiting to be explored.

A Tapestry of Diverse Ecosystems

Gilroy's unique geographical position at the southern edge of the Santa Clara Valley, bordered by the Santa Cruz Mountains to the west and the Diablo Range to the east, creates a variety of ecosystems. This diversity supports an array of flora and fauna, making Gilroy an ecological treasure.

One of the most prominent natural attractions is the Henry W. Coe State Park. As the largest state park in northern California, it spans over 87,000 acres of wild, rugged terrain. The park's diverse ecosystems range from oak woodlands and chaparral to riparian habitats along its creeks. Hikers and nature lovers can explore its extensive network of trails, encountering a multitude of wildlife, including black-tailed deer, wild turkeys, bobcats, and even the elusive mountain lion. Bird watchers can delight in spotting golden eagles, red-tailed hawks, and a variety of songbirds.

Coyote Lake-Harvey Bear Ranch County Park

Another jewel in Gilroy's crown is the Coyote Lake-Harvey Bear Ranch County Park. This expansive park offers over 6,695 acres of rolling hills, oak savannas, and a picturesque lake. The park is a favorite destination for camping, fishing, boating, and horseback riding. The lake itself is home to various fish species such as bass, bluegill, and catfish, attracting anglers year-round.

The park's trails are frequented by hikers and mountain bikers who can experience the tranquility of the area while possibly encountering wildlife like wild boars, coyotes, and numerous bird species. The park's diverse habitats support a healthy population of amphibians and reptiles, including the California newt and western fence lizard.

Uvas Canyon County Park

Uvas Canyon County Park, located on the eastern side of the Santa Cruz Mountains, is renowned for its lush, forested environment and stunning waterfalls. The park's cool, shaded trails are particularly inviting during the hot summer months. The cascading waterfalls, such as Upper Falls and Basin Falls, are the highlights of the park, providing serene spots for reflection and photography.

The park's creekside habitats support a variety of wildlife, including raccoons, skunks, and gray foxes. The rich plant life, from ferns and mosses to towering redwoods and sycamores, creates a verdant haven that is a stark contrast to the dry chaparral found in other parts of Gilroy.

The Agricultural Landscape

Beyond its parks and wild spaces, Gilroy's agricultural heritage also contributes to its natural beauty. The fertile soil and Mediterranean climate make it an ideal location for farming. Garlic fields, vineyards, and orchards form a picturesque patchwork across the landscape. The sight of blooming garlic fields in the summer or grapevines heavy with fruit in the fall adds a rustic charm to the region.

Local farms often open their doors to visitors, offering farm tours, wine tastings, and U-pick fruit opportunities. This agricultural interaction not only enhances the appreciation of the land but also underscores the symbiotic relationship between nature and community in Gilroy.

Preservation and Conservation Efforts

The natural beauty of Gilroy is not just a result of its favorable geography; it is also the product of concerted preservation and conservation efforts. Organizations such as the Open Space Authority and local government initiatives have been instrumental in protecting the area's natural habitats from overdevelopment. These efforts ensure that future generations can enjoy the same pristine landscapes and rich biodiversity that current residents and visitors do.

Educational programs and community outreach are also vital components of these conservation efforts. Local schools and community groups often participate in wildlife preservation projects, habitat restoration activities, and environmental education programs. These initiatives foster a sense of stewardship and responsibility towards the environment among the younger generation.

Conclusion

Gilroy, California, is much more than the "Garlic Capital of the World." It is a testament to the natural beauty and ecological diversity that thrive in the heart of the Silicon Valley region. From the expansive trails of Henry W. Coe State Park and the serene waters of Coyote Lake to the cascading waterfalls of Uvas Canyon, Gilroy's landscapes offer endless opportunities for exploration and appreciation of the natural world.

The city's commitment to preserving its natural habitats ensures that Gilroy remains a sanctuary for wildlife and a haven for those seeking respite from the urban hustle. Whether you're a seasoned hiker, a passionate bird watcher, or simply someone who enjoys the tranquility of nature, Gilroy's wildlife and natural beauty provide a rich, immersive experience that celebrates the splendor of the great outdoors.

[eyssant]

Discovering Banff: A Guide to Wilderness Exploration

Banff National Park is a site of unmatched beauty and wonder, tucked away amid the untamed grandeur of the Canadian Rockies. Banff is more than simply a park—it's a monument to the unadulterated strength and amazing beauty of nature, spanning over 6,641 square kilometers of pure wilderness. Banff has a wide range of experiences that enthrall the spirit and capture the soul, from its towering peaks to its glistening lakes. We'll explore the numerous attractions, activities, and seasonal variations of Banff National Park in this all-inclusive itinerary.

Discovering Banff's Natural Splendor

At the heart of Banff's allure lies its diverse and awe-inspiring landscapes. Towering mountain peaks, cascading waterfalls, and emerald-green forests create a tapestry of natural beauty that is nothing short of breathtaking. One of the park's most iconic features is Lake Louise, whose turquoise waters reflect the surrounding glaciers and snow-capped peaks with stunning clarity. Nearby, Moraine Lake captivates visitors with its vibrant hues and dramatic setting, earning its place as one of the most photographed locations in the Canadian Rockies.

For those seeking adventure, Banff's extensive network of trails offers endless opportunities for exploration. From leisurely strolls through verdant valleys to challenging ascents up rugged mountain peaks, there's a hike for every skill level and inclination. Johnston Canyon Trail, with its scenic pathways and breathtaking waterfalls, is a favorite among visitors of all ages. Meanwhile, the Plain of Six Glaciers Trail rewards intrepid hikers with panoramic views of glaciers and alpine meadows, showcasing the park's untamed beauty in all its glory.

Engaging Activities for Every Season

Banff National Park is a playground for outdoor enthusiasts, offering a plethora of activities to suit every interest and season. In the winter months, the park transforms into a winter wonderland, with world-class skiing and snowboarding opportunities at resorts such as Lake Louise and Sunshine Village. The crisp mountain air and pristine snow-covered landscapes create an idyllic setting for snowshoeing, ice skating, and ice climbing while cozying up by a crackling fire with a cup of hot cocoa is the perfect way to unwind after a day of exploration.

As the snow melts and spring arrives, Banff bursts to life with vibrant colors and renewed vitality. Wildflowers blanket the meadows, and the sound of rushing water fills the air as rivers and waterfalls swell with the melting snow. Spring is the perfect time for wildlife viewing, as bears, elk, and other native species emerge from their winter slumber in search of food and mates. Guided wildlife tours offer the chance to observe these magnificent creatures in their natural habitat while learning about the park's delicate ecosystem and conservation efforts.

Summer in Banff is a time of endless adventure and outdoor pursuits. Hiking, biking, and rock climbing are popular activities, with trails ranging from easy family-friendly walks to challenging backcountry treks. The park's pristine lakes and rivers provide ample opportunities for kayaking, canoeing, and paddleboarding, while fishing enthusiasts can cast their lines in search of trout and other native species. Camping under the stars is a quintessential summer experience, with campgrounds nestled amidst towering pines and breathtaking mountain vistas.

Timing Your Visit: Seasons and Climate

The best time to visit Banff National Park largely depends on the activities you wish to pursue and your tolerance for crowds and varying weather conditions. Summer (June to August) is the busiest time of year, with long daylight hours and mild temperatures ideal for hiking, camping, and wildlife viewing. However, be prepared for crowds and book accommodations well in advance, especially if you plan to visit popular attractions like Lake Louise and Moraine Lake.

Winter (November to April) transforms Banff into a snowy paradise, with world-class skiing and snowboarding drawing winter sports enthusiasts from around the globe. The ski season typically peaks between December and February, offering optimal snow conditions and a wide range of terrain for skiers and snowboarders of all levels.

Spring (April to June) and fall (September to October) offer a quieter and more tranquil experience, with milder temperatures and fewer crowds. Spring is particularly beautiful, with wildflowers in bloom and wildlife emerging from hibernation, while fall brings vibrant foliage and crisp mountain air, making it an ideal time for hiking and photography.

Banff’s weather is characterized by cold winters and mild summers. Winter temperatures can plummet well below freezing, with heavy snowfall common in the higher elevations. Summer temperatures are generally mild, with daytime highs averaging around 20-25°C (68-77°F) in the valleys, although temperatures can vary significantly depending on elevation.

It's important to come prepared for changing weather conditions, especially if you plan to explore the higher elevations. Dressing in layers and packing essential gear such as waterproof clothing, sunscreen, and insect repellent will ensure a comfortable and enjoyable experience.

Conclusion: Embrace the Adventure

Banff National Park is more than just a destination; it's an experience that awakens the senses and nourishes the soul. Whether you're drawn to its rugged mountain peaks, tranquil lakes, or abundant wildlife, Banff offers a wealth of opportunities for exploration and adventure. From exhilarating outdoor pursuits to moments of quiet reflection amidst nature's grandeur, Banff invites visitors to immerse themselves fully in its timeless beauty and create memories that will last a lifetime. So pack your bags, lace up your hiking boots, and embark on a journey of discovery in one of the world's most awe-inspiring wilderness destinations. Banff awaits, ready to enchant and inspire all who venture into its embrace.