#camp pmi

[eduhubspot]

Join our PMI-ACP Boot Camp and get prepared for the Agile Certified Practitioner exam. Dive deep into agile principles, practices, and tools, and prepare confidently for the PMI-ACP certification exam.

[starseedfxofficial]

Crude Oil, Gold & Copper: Hidden Insights for Traders Well, Well, Well… Oil Still Floats Above Water You know that feeling when you're trying to relax, but there’s a nagging thought keeping you on edge? Like a precarious truce or an online shopping cart that’s still full of things you shouldn’t buy? That’s basically the state of crude oil right now. Yesterday, oil decided to take a breather, barely keeping its head above water thanks to a laundry list of bullish factors. Here’s what’s fueling the fire (pun intended): ongoing worries over the Israel/Hezbollah truce, expectations that OPEC+ might keep on squeezing supply, some annoying refinery outages, and those fresh sanctions on Iran. All of this is like a simmering pot—it’s not boiling over, but it’s definitely not cooling down either. The cherry on top? A surprise build in private crude stockpiles. Turns out, inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels when the experts were expecting a decline of 700,000 barrels. Guess the oil market likes to keep us on our toes. Gold: Shining (But Not Blindingly So) Over in the precious metals camp, spot gold managed to eke out some gains, but in a rather quiet and uneventful fashion—much like trying to sneak into the kitchen for a midnight snack without waking anyone up. The culprit behind this muted performance? An unenthusiastic U.S. dollar. With the greenback lazing around, gold didn’t exactly put on a show but did manage to keep itself slightly above yesterday's levels. It’s kind of like when you manage to go to the gym, even if it’s just for a light stroll on the treadmill—not impressive, but hey, progress is progress. Copper: Not Exactly Electrifying Copper, often seen as the ultimate indicator of economic health, had a bit of a "meh" day too. Futures remained subdued, mostly because investors were in a cautious mood after the latest Services PMI data from China disappointed. Think of it like showing up to a party expecting fireworks, only to find out it's more of a lukewarm backyard barbecue. The weaker-than-expected data from China made traders wary of taking risks, leaving copper’s performance a little rusty, if you catch my drift. A Deeper Dive: What's Really Going On? But here's where the real magic happens—beneath these surface-level movements lie opportunities that most traders overlook. For crude oil, the surprise build in inventories might initially look bearish, but dig a little deeper. The market’s ability to hold steady despite this data suggests that bullish sentiment is still resilient. Keep an eye on those geopolitical factors, because anything from a truce breaking down to new sanctions could send crude soaring faster than a meme stock on a Reddit rally. For gold, remember that it thrives on uncertainty. With an uneventful dollar, it may not look exciting now, but any unexpected economic hiccup could turn it into the superstar asset once again. It’s like having a secret weapon in your back pocket—you might not need it right away, but when you do, it’ll pack a punch. And for copper? The cautious mood might be holding it back, but this could be the hidden gem moment savvy traders are waiting for. China’s PMI data isn’t all doom and gloom—often, such indicators pave the way for government intervention, which can spur economic activity and boost demand for metals like copper. Contrarian traders might want to keep a close watch here; a turnaround could be just around the corner. Trading Tips: How to Play These Moves - Crude Oil: Pay close attention to news surrounding the Israel/Hezbollah situation and any OPEC+ decisions. Volatility is the name of the game here, and with the current mix of bullish factors, there’s a good chance of upward movement—just keep your risk management in check. - Gold: If you’re looking to hedge against economic uncertainty, gold is always a good candidate. With the dollar being uneventful, now might be a time to accumulate slowly, waiting for a more significant catalyst. - Copper: Think like a contrarian. While everyone else is cautious, consider the potential for a bounce if China steps in to boost its economy. Keep a lookout for news on stimulus or infrastructure projects—they could be the spark that lights the copper fire. The Power of Hidden Insights The market is full of these subtle, under-the-radar dynamics that can offer strategic advantages if you know where to look. Whether it’s crude’s resilience, gold’s steady charm, or copper's potential comeback, there’s always something below the surface. And remember, the best trades aren’t always the loudest—sometimes, the quiet movers are the ones that lead to the biggest wins. Have insights or questions about today’s market moves? Drop a comment below, or better yet, join the StarseedFX community for real-time alerts, daily analysis, and live trading discussions with fellow traders who love digging into the details just like you do. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated   Read the full article

[jobkash]

ACCOUNTANT

NOW HIRING IN CAMP HILL, PA!Property Management, Inc. (PMI) has a rare opportunity for a motivated individual looking to join a growing company as an employee owner. PMI manages over $4 billion of real estate assets and has over 30,000 customers and 360 clients. We are currently searching for one full-time Accountant to join our team. This position reports to the Accounting Manager and is…

[outboundtrawas6]

OUTBOUND CHARACTER CAMP SMK PMI | TIPS INDONESIA | 0858-4027-8033

Outbound Trawas, Outbound Banyuwangi, Outbound Pacet, Outbound Kediri, Outbound Indonesia

Program Outbound Edukasi Character Camp ini merupakan program outbound untuk para siswa.

unsur pembelajaran yang di dapat oleh peserta mulai dari pembentukan character siswa, mempelajari aspek budaya, komunikasi, aspek sosial bermasyarakat, aspek matematika bisnis, enterprenure, agriculture.

Booking Now! 0878-3615-2078. (Ibu Dini) 0858-5549-4440 (Ibu Arin) 0858-4027-8033 (Ibu Olla) 0895-1481-0211 (Bapak Muchtar) 0857-5505-9965 (Bapak Azidan)

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outboundtrawas #outboundcharactercamp #outboundmalang #outboundsekolah #outboundbekasi #outboundsentul #outboundmedan #outboundedukasi

[gosulsel]

Jalin Silaturahim dan Kekompakan, PMI Kota Makassar Gelar Family Gathering di Malino - Gosulsel

MAKASSAR, GOSULSEL.COM - Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) Kota Makassar menggelar Family Gathering di Malino, Kabupaten Gowa, Rabu dan Kamis, 27-28 September 2023. Kegiatan tersebut dilakukan di alam terbuka sembari camping atau berkemah di bawah pohon pinus yang menjadi tren kekinian saat...

http://gosulsel.com/2023/09/29/jalin-silaturahim-dan-kekompakan-pmi-kota-makassar-gelar-family-gathering-di-malino/

#FamilyGathering #PMIKotaMakassar

[educationedge0123]

The Best PMP Exam Prep Books for 2023

If you’re considering taking the Project Management Professional (PMP) exam in 2023, you’re on the right track to advancing your career in project management. However, preparing for the PMP exam can be a daunting task. Fortunately, there are many excellent PMP exam prep books available to help you succeed.

“PMP Exam Prep” by Rita Mulcahy

Rita Mulcahy’s “PMP Exam Prep” book is a perennial favorite among PMP exam takers. Known for its clear and concise explanations, this book covers all the key concepts and processes you need to know for the PMP exam. It includes a plethora of practice questions and real-world examples to help you understand and apply project management principles effectively.

One of the standout features of this book is Rita’s Process Chart, which provides a visual roadmap of the PMP exam process, making it easier to grasp the interrelationships between different project management processes.

“A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)” by PMI

Published by the Project Management Institute (PMI), “A Guide to the PMBOK® Guide” is the definitive resource for PMP exam preparation. While not a traditional prep book, it is a crucial reference for the exam. The book outlines the PMBOK® Guide’s framework, including the five process groups and ten knowledge areas, offering a comprehensive understanding of project management.

It’s highly recommended to use this guide in conjunction with other prep books to ensure you have a solid grasp of the PMBOK® Guide concepts.

“PMP Exam Prep Simplified” by Andrew Ramdayal

If you’re looking for a simplified approach to PMP exam preparation, Andrew Ramdayal’s “PMP Exam Prep Simplified” might be the perfect choice. This book breaks down complex concepts into easy-to-understand language and includes mnemonic devices and memory aids to help you remember important information.

Ramdayal’s book also offers practical tips on managing your study time efficiently and tackling exam questions effectively, making it an excellent resource for those with busy schedules.

“PMP Project Management Professional Study Guide” by Kim Heldman

Kim Heldman’s “PMP Project Management Professional Study Guide” is another top-rated PMP exam prep book. It covers the exam material comprehensively and includes numerous practice questions, chapter quizzes, and two full-length practice exams to assess your readiness.

This book is well-organized, making it easy to follow along and track your progress. Additionally, it provides valuable insights into real-world project management scenarios and how they relate to the PMP exam content.

“Head First PMP” by Jennifer Greene and Andrew Stellman

For those who prefer a more interactive and engaging learning style, “Head First PMP” by Jennifer Greene and Andrew Stellman is a refreshing choice. This book takes a unique approach by incorporating humor, visuals, and interactive activities to help you absorb and retain information effectively.

The “Head First” series is known for its engaging style, making it an excellent option for individuals who find traditional textbooks boring. It covers all the necessary PMP exam topics and includes practice questions to reinforce your understanding.

“PMP Exam Prep: Questions, Answers, & Explanations” by Christopher Scordo

If you’re looking to drill down on practice questions, Christopher Scordo’s “PMP Exam Prep: Questions, Answers, & Explanations” is a valuable resource. This book provides over 1,000 practice questions, detailed explanations, and references to the PMBOK® Guide.

Using this book alongside your main study materials can help you test your knowledge and identify areas that require further review. It’s an excellent tool for building confidence in your exam readiness.

“PMP Exam Prep Boot Camp” by Joseph Phillips

Joseph Phillips’ “PMP Exam Prep Boot Camp” is designed to give you an intensive and focused preparation experience. It includes a structured study plan, numerous practice questions, and exercises to reinforce your understanding of key concepts.

The book also includes access to online resources, such as practice exams and flashcards, to enhance your study experience. If you’re looking for a comprehensive and hands-on approach to PMP exam prep, this book is worth considering.

Conclusion

Preparing for the PMP exam is a significant endeavor, but with the right resources, you can increase your chances of success. The PMP exam prep books mentioned in this article offer a range of options to suit different learning styles and preferences. Whether you prefer a traditional textbook, an interactive guide, or a practice question-focused approach, there’s a book that can help you achieve your PMP certification goals in 2023.

Remember that successful PMP exam preparation often involves using multiple resources in combination. Consider using the PMBOK® Guide in tandem with one or more of the recommended prep books to ensure a comprehensive understanding of project management principles and practices.

Whichever book(s) you choose, stay committed to your study plan, practice regularly, and remain confident in your abilities. With dedication and the right study materials, you’ll be well-prepared to conquer the PMP exam and advance your career in project management.

[educationedgesworld]

Accelerating Your Path to PMP Certification: Tips for a Swift Journey

Introduction

Securing the Project Management Professional (PMP) certification is a notable achievement that can enhance your career opportunities and validate your project management expertise. While the PMP certification process requires careful preparation and commitment, there are strategic steps you can take to expedite your journey. In this article, we'll explore effective strategies to streamline the process and attain your PMP certification faster.

1. Assess Your Eligibility Early

Before embarking on your PMP journey, thoroughly evaluate your eligibility based on your educational background and project management experience. Ensure you meet the prerequisites to avoid any unexpected delays or hurdles.

2. Create a Study Plan

Craft a comprehensive study plan that outlines your study schedule, resource allocation, and milestones. Dedicate focused time each day or week to cover the exam content thoroughly.

3. Utilize Quality Study Resources

Invest in high-quality PMP exam study resources, such as accredited training courses, study guides, and practice exams. These resources offer structured content that aligns with the PMP exam domains.

4. Prioritize Practice Exams

Practice exams are invaluable in gauging your readiness for the actual PMP exam. Allocate time to take multiple practice tests, analyze your performance, and focus on areas that need improvement.

5. Opt for Intensive Boot Camps

Consider enrolling in PMP boot camps or intensive workshops that offer condensed and focused exam preparation. These immersive programs provide concentrated learning, often over a few days, accelerating your understanding of key concepts.

6. Leverage Exam Simulators

Online PMP exam simulators emulate the actual testing environment and help you become comfortable with the exam format. Regularly practicing on these simulators boosts your confidence and time management skills.

7. Submit Your Application Promptly

Once you've completed your required project management experience, submit your PMP application promptly to start the approval process. Avoid unnecessary delays by ensuring your application is accurate and complete.

8. Take Advantage of PMI Membership

Joining the Project Management Institute (PMI) provides access to valuable resources, including study materials, webinars, and networking opportunities. PMI members also enjoy reduced exam fees, potentially saving you both time and money.

9. Stay Consistent and Disciplined

Consistency is key when preparing for the PMP exam. Stick to your study schedule, remain disciplined, and avoid procrastination to maintain a steady pace.

10. Schedule the Exam Strategically

Once you feel adequately prepared, schedule your PMP exam. This commitment can serve as a powerful motivator, keeping you focused on your goal.

Conclusion

Earning your PMP certification requires dedication, but by following these strategic steps, you can expedite the process and achieve your certification faster. Assess your eligibility, create a robust study plan, utilize high-quality resources, and take advantage of study aids like practice exams and simulators. Remember that the key to success lies in maintaining a consistent and disciplined approach to your PMP preparation.

[realita-lampung]

Beri Semangat, Riana Sari Arinal Kunjungi Jumbara PMR di Way Handak

Ketua Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) Provinsi Lampung Riana Sari Arinal memberikan semangat kepada seluruh kontingen peserta Jumpa Bhakti Gembira Palang Merah Remaja (Jumbara PMR) saat kunjungannya ke lokasi Jumbara PMR Tingkat Nasional IX Tahun 2023 di Kawasan Agrowisata Way Handak, Kalianda, Lampung Selatan, Kamis (6/7/2023). Dalam kunjungan itu, Riana juga ingin memastikan pelaksanaan Jumbara pasca pembukaan, terus berjalan dengan lancar tanpa kendala dan para anak-anak peserta Jumbara dalam keadaan sehat. "Saya hari ini datang untuk memastikan bahwa semua dalam keadaan baik-baik saja dan anak-anaknya dalam keadaan sehat," ujar Riana. Riana mengapresiasi semua pihak yang terlibat dalam mensukseskan Lampung sebagai tuan rumah Jumbara PMR Tingkat Nasional ke- 9. "Saya sangat berterima kasih bahwa semua Liaison Officer (LO) dan juga pengurus dari Markas PMI Provinsi yang siaga ada ditempat sehingga semua bisa langsung diatasi jika terjadi kendala-kendala seperti masalah air, listrik, tiba-tiba hujan untuk segera ditangani," katanya. Dalam kesempatan itu, Riana mengunjungi camp peserta Jumbara sekaligus menyapa anak-anak PMR seperti dari Sumatera Barat dan Sumatera Utara. Kemudian, Riana mengunjungi Pos Kesehatan, Media Center dan lokasi UMKM serta menyaksikan penampilan bakat yang dimiliki para peserta Jumbara pada kegiatan Jumbara Got Talent. Ibu Riana juga berkeliling melihat kerajinan seperti dari Provinsi Jawa Barat, Sumatera Barat dan Aceh. Hadir mendampingi Riana, Wakil Ketua PMI Provinsi Lampung Rudy Syawal. Seperti diketahui, Jumbara PMR Tingkat Nasional IX sebelumnya telah resmi dibuka oleh Ketua Umum PMI Jusuf Kalla pada Selasa (4/7/2023). Pada pembukaan tersebut, disuguhkan keindahan parade budaya dari berbagai provinsi dan tarian tuping khas Lampung yang ditarikan oleh ratusan siswa-siswi dari sekolah di Lampung Selatan. Kegiatan yang diselenggarakan tanggal 2-10 Juli 2023 ini bertujuan untuk mempererat tali silaturahmi antarpeserta dan kontingen dari berbagai provinsi se-Indonesia serta 12 negara sahabat.(Adpim) Read the full article

[lonniesharp]

Top 5 Best PMP Boot Camps of 2023

PMP certification is a valuable credential for project managers. To pass the PMP exam, many professionals choose to attend a PMP boot camp. In this article, we'll explore the top 5 best PMP boot camp of 2023.

Top 5 Best PMP Boot Camps of 2023

1. Project Management Academy

Project Management Academy is a well-established boot camp with a strong reputation. They offer a variety of training options, including online, in-person, and hybrid courses. Their courses are designed to cover all the topics tested on the PMP exam.

2. Simplilearn

Simplilearn is a popular online training provider that offers a variety of project management courses, including PMP boot camps. Their PMP boot camps are led by experienced instructors and include study materials and practice exams.

3. GreyCampus

GreyCampus offers both online and in-person PMP boot camps. Their courses are designed to help students pass the PMP exam on the first try. They provide study materials, practice exams, and a money-back guarantee.

4. PMI

PMI, the organization that offers the PMP certification, also offers PMP boot camps. Their courses are designed to align with PMI's standards and cover all the topics tested on the PMP exam. They offer both online and in-person courses.

5. Master of Project Academy

Master of Project Academy is an online training provider that offers a variety of project management courses, including PMP boot camps. Their PMP boot camps are designed to be self-paced and include study materials, practice exams, and instructor support.

Conclusion:

Choosing the best PMP boot camp can be a daunting task. However, by considering these top five PMP boot camps of 2023, you can make an informed decision on which boot camp is right for you.

[full-potential]

Structure the Day, Feel More Clear Headed and HERE

Hello Full Potential Beings directing your attention towards your highest and best self. A new day is here and it’s a glorious start to the new year. The sun is shining. Classical music is playing. The animals are moving to and fro. A smoothie is being prepared. And I am getting this post off to you from our village here in Costa Rica. Life is amazing. The dream is real. So the first download I had since starting the New Year is around STRUCTURING the day. What Does It Mean to Structure Your Day? Structuring means is blocking time out for what’s important in a way that feels the best and most productive for you and your values. Now I realize you might be in a situation that requires you to have a less flexible structure at the moment. So work with whatever free time you have and structure it. And aim to become more free so that you can structure all of it. I’ve explored all kinds of ways to structure the day and here’s what I’ve found works for me at this present time. LIMITED SCREEN TIME / ACCESS No Screen Time Until 12 PMI find that the single biggest thing I can do to structure my day is limit my screen time. This means not accessing my cell phone until noon. The only exception is creating a blog post. I’m taking this so seriously that I’m now going to use my old cell phone for instant messages only and leave it in one place - the office. So my mind begins to associate a specific location and a specific time with handling instant messages & communications. My newer phone will now be used only for accessing my mind map and producing video / audio content. I want to associate my new phone with creating content and not consuming content or communications. Otherwise the phone becomes too pervasive and I find myself communicating and consuming anywhere and everywhere. It’s the easiest default activity. And then my mind get’s so clouded after a while its hard to focus or structure anything else. WORK WINDOW FROM 12 TO 6 PM I have created a work window from 12 to 6 PM where I focus on productive work related things. This leaves me an entire morning to focus on what I need to do to prepare my energy for work. It also helps me get really clear on what I want to accomplish during that 6 hour window. This includes my screen time as well. So I want to make sure any communications or on-screen content consumption I do is specific to the goals and things I want to accomplish. MUSIC & CREATIVE ENDEAVORS AFTER 6 PM Having a clear boundary on work mode and screen time gives me a clear cut off to then create music and dance. This feels like a perfect before bed activity versus late night screen time and Netflix. EATING CUT OFF 8 PM, FAST UNTIL 12 PM This is another big one that goes hand in hand with screen time. When I fast from both the screen and eating until noon.. It just increases the clarity I feel - thus making it easier to be and stay structured in my approach. — My morning feels very aligned with my values now. My afternoon feels very clear and focused. And I am looking forward to the evening time.. and the day just feels longer and more spacious with these clear boundaries. My mind feels more clear. This approach definitely takes some discipline. And there will be some occasional exceptions. For example my love just prepared a smoothie and its before noon.. its 11:47 AM. I’m not being overly rigid but I have a general direction. And if special events come up I’m going to adapt my structure.. like when we travel or camp out at the beach. If you do feel like you’re getting off track, I would default back to a paper plan (focus sheet) to get you back on track. You can see an earlier post on this. Remember the goal here is not perfection, its trial and error, finding what works best for you. Structuring your day is a practice that takes time. And often discovering what you don’t want or what you won’t do again .. until you get it right. What’s amazing here is that if you do start getting it right.. it’s like your whole life will start to flow and make more sense. You are disciplining your life, your mind, your eating habits and so much will start falling into place. I hope you feel inspired by this post and take some time to think about how you want to structure your own day and see some of these benefits for yourself. I’d be happy to hear more on how it goes for you. And any challenges or set backs you experience and how you overcome them. I'm also happy to try to give some pointers on what works for me to stay focused and disciplined. Happy New Year and see you tomorrow. :) P.S. Here's some planner ideas that might give you inspiration for how to organize your paper planning. (I suggest a blank sheet of paper so you can customize it however you want.) Read the full article

[magical-xirl-4]

Hocus Pocus is such a good movie /srs

[beritanews]

Lewat Outbound, Adnan Perkuat Kekompakan dan Kebersamaan Bersama Relawan PMI Se-Sulsel

Lewat Outbound, Adnan Perkuat Kekompakan dan Kebersamaan Bersama Relawan PMI Se-Sulsel

BERITA.NEWS, Gowa – Ketua Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan, Adnan Purichta Ichsan outbound bersama seluruh relawan PMI dari Kabupaten/Kota Se-Sulawesi Selatan di Pucak Farm Kecamatan Tompobulu, Kabupaten Maros, Sabtu (22/1) pagi. Adnan mengatakan, kegiatan outbound ini merupakan bagian dari rangkaian kegiatan Volunteer Camp yang dilaksanakan dalam rangka memperingati Hari…

[iphien-saiyaman]

. Minggu back to nature Available assembling knockdown system #backtonature #camp #gunungan #outdoor #thewheel #canvas #produk #gerobak #greenday #PMI #kemah #mount #talisimpul #pengungsi #flowerfire #umkmcepu #pergudangan #tronton #payungjati #indonesian #local #impor #kapjeep #terpaulin . . INFO dan pemesanan ☎️ 03199684547 . . #larantuka #wuawua #halmahera #bandar #tolitoli #afworkart (di Sidoarjo, Jawa Timur, Indonesia) https://www.instagram.com/p/CVHhHZpPT2l/?utm_medium=tumblr

[billehrman]

Conviction and Core Beliefs

Conviction and Core Beliefs

The financial markets went from having the worst weeks of the year last week to having one of the best weeks this week. What changed? Nothing!

We went out of our way in last week’s blog to take the “Opposite View” as we knew that the pundits/experts on cable news and at many influential brokerage houses had overreacted to Fed Chairman Powell’s comments.  We believed that the Fed, as well all monetary bodies, would not even consider beginning to take the punchbowl away until employment had returned to pre-pandemic levels; inflation sustained at well above 2% even after shortages had ended and supply lines had been restored, and year over year inflation comparisons no longer were distorted by unusually low numbers during the pandemic.

We learned several invaluable lessons during our nine-year tenure as CIO/Partner at George Soros’ Quantum Fund: stay true to your convictions based on your core beliefs, think globally, do your own independent research (don’t take others views at face value), take advantage of market weakness, be open-minded, and control risk.

When we look at the market, we analyze the supply of capital versus the demand for money. Here is what we see:

·      We will remain with excess liquidity trends for at least another 18 months, favorable for risk assets as production tries to catch up with demand.

·      We look at monetary policies both here and abroad. We see clear trends through at least 2022 as all economic bodies want their economies to run hot and believe that current high inflationary pressures are transitory. We agree.

·      We see the need to relieve shortages, rebuild supply lines and modernize infrastructure here and abroad. This trend favors the economically sensitive areas of the market.

·      We see scarcity of many industrial commodities for many years as demand increases above trend as we rebuild our asset base and go EV/Green while supply stays limited.

·      We have entered a new technological revolution that has positive implications for all aspects of business plus much higher productivity levels than we have had over the last decade, which will reduce unit labor costs despite higher wages.

·      We see inflation remaining constrained due to globalization, tech spending, and disruptors popping up everywhere.

·      Finally, we see much higher levels of corporate profits, cash flow, and ROIC than the consensus, while the yield curve does not steepen as much as we earlier envisioned, which will lead to higher stock prices ahead.

We continue to make tremendous progress putting the coronavirus in the rearview mirror. More than 2.8 billion doses have been administered across 179 countries, with the latest daily rate at 42.6 million doses per day. In the U.S., 321 million doses have been given so far, allocating 816,831 per day. The U.S has almost fully opened, with Europe surprisingly close behind. We are also making progress in India and other parts of the world. We now believe that we will have a global synchronous expansion by the spring of 2022, supported by excess liquidity and easy monetary policies that can last for years at above-average rates of gain. We are also confident that we will have sufficient doses available next year if booster shots are required. All good news,

We left last week with the pundits worried that Powell and the Fed had altered its monetary policy view when, in fact, there was no appreciable change, as we knew and discussed last week. It was prudent for them to begin discussing tapering as we are closer to that date than months before, but remember, tapering does not mean tightening. We listened to many Fed governors last week, including Powell before Congress, and came away with the same opinion that we have had for weeks: the fed will talk tapering in the fall; begin tapering next winter, reducing bond purchases in increments of $40 billion taking them to the end of 2022; and begin to adjust the Fed Funds rate by the summer of 2023. Do you think that raising funds' rate 25 to 50 basis points is tightening as actual accurate rates will remain negative? We stay in the camp that the bulk of the current inflationary pressure is transitory and will subside as shortages ease and supply lines open. We expect sequential inflation data to improve as we move through the remainder of the year into 2022, which will support the Fed view and improve investor confidence.

Even though Biden struck an infrastructure bill with bipartisan Senators, investors remain skeptical whether it will pass if it is tied to the rest of Biden’s social infrastructure agenda. We are more confident as the public outcry if the Democrats don’t give us a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill. Instead, ram through a multi-trillion social schedule using reconciliation could doom them in next year’s election. And they know it!  In addition, Biden made clear that something is better than nothing, so will he go back on his word? The agreed-upon bill was—$ 1.2 trillion infrastructure compromise, including $579 billion spent over eight years. The bill would be financed through a combination of closing tax loopholes, redirecting unspent emergency relief funds, targeted corporate user fees, and the macroeconomic impact of the infrastructure investment. There is no corporate tax increase whatsoever. Good news!

Economic data points confirm an improving domestic economy: initial unemployment claims fell 7,000 to 411,000; existing home sales hit a new record high in May, topping $350,000; new orders for durable goods increased 2.3%; shipments rose 0.4%, unfilled orders increased 0.8%, nondefense new orders for capital goods were up 2.7%; the flash U.S HIS composite index hit 68.1; U.S services 70.1; consumer sentiment 85.5;  Manufacturing PMI 61.5; Flash manufacturing output 58.1; trades good deficit $88.1 billion, up 2.8%; and core PCE inflation was up 0.5% in May, up 3.4% from a year ago. Both the PCE price index and core PCE price index came in slightly lower than forecast. It is important to note that semi-conductor shortages are easing, which bodes well for higher auto production and lower used car prices.

We were surprised by the apparent strength in Europe’s economy as it gets its arms around the coronavirus. IHS Markit surveys show euro-area economic activity growing at the fastest pace in 15 years, with companies struggling to keep up with demand much like here. The equivalent UK index is improving too. For instance, the Euro manufacture’s index hit 63.1 in June, services 58.0 and composite 59.2 while the UK manufacturer’s index hit 64.2, services 61.7 and composite 61.7. All up!  Economic activity has continued to improve in China as well. We find it puzzling that China is reducing its purchases of iron and other metals as industrial production, including steel output, is hitting record highs. We see a substantial short squeeze ahead as global demand for industrial commodities increases with economic activity.

Investment Conclusions

We have not altered our favorable view of the investment landscape as we are getting our arms around the coronavirus;  global liquidity trends to exceed demand for funds favoring risk assets; monetary and fiscal policies to remain accommodative; shortages and supply line issues will ease; inflationary pressures will diminish over time; yield curve will steepen slowly but will not be as steep as earlier feared; and corporate profit, cash flow, dividends, buybacks, and ROIC will be higher than currently forecast.