#by my count this is the 6th time this happened since 2011 and i may even be missing some. i'm not discounting the possibility atp
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the current state of batman comics
#batman#by my count this is the 6th time this happened since 2011 and i may even be missing some. i'm not discounting the possibility atp#bats#komiksy
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A personal look back on my summer 2020
My fall semester has already been going on for a little while, but in the past week the weather has suddenly switched from hot to autumny and now it feels like the summer was a period which is truly over and which I can look back upon as (unsurprisingly) one of the most singular summers of my life.
I consider myself to be excellent at autobiographical memory, probably in the 90th percentile or so, at least when it comes to being able to recall the year or month (or sometimes week) that particular events of my life occurred. I attribute this to often being able to connect various things that were going on in different areas of my life at the same time (rather like separate arcs in a television episode) in ways that allow me to anchor any particular memory to the time it occurred. Sometimes there are particular time periods where the "plot arcs" of my life somehow seem to fit together really well in a united larger story or a single flavor, whereas looking back at other periods I can with some effort remember various arcs but it's hard to hunt them out and put them together, as though they were part of a poorly-written TV episode which doesn't have any particular unity.
Summers for me have always stood apart from the years they were in (with the slight exception of the summers I spent abroad doing my first postdoc which had so little structure that my general routine was the same all year round). This summer I often looked back at the summer of 2010 (the last divisible-by-ten year), which was an example of the former: somehow all the separate arcs going on in my life at the time -- my studying and research (sadly, this was the most recent summer when I actually felt good about how studying/research was going!), stuff that was going on in my immediate family, progress in my social life, my first forays into doing local gigs as part of a band, the weather, my apartment/roommate situation, shows I was watching, and personal internal struggles I was facing -- feel like they were all nuances of the same flavor. (This was back in the days that I had cable and it so happened that Curb Your Enthusiasm was on the TV Guide Channel and I was introduced to it and watched it a lot just that summer; for years afterwards the theme tune immediately brought back the emotions that came with the flavor of summer 2010. Semi-coincidentally I've been watching a lot of Curb clips on YouTube since I noticed them appearing early this past summer.)
The following summer, summer of 2011, is an example of the latter kind of time period in my memory: I'm able to remember a bunch of separate things that went on, including a visit to Switzerland, some of the research I was trying to do, my living situation (and anticipation of a move and the shift in my social life it would bring), my discovery of the local Unitarian Universalist fellowship and being a regular attendant there the entire summer, some particular online interests, and the unpleasant bike accident I had, but it takes some effort to recall that this was all happening in the same three months. (One thing I do distinctly remember about my living situation is that my one roommate spent most of the summer out of town and that, in anticipation of my next roommate who I knew traveled less and would be much more social, I was telling myself, "Enjoy this level of privacy now because chances are you'll never have it again." I was absolutely right in my prediction that there would be much less solitude and privacy with the next roommate who I remained living with for several years, but I sort of assumed that after that I would have found some kind of a partner to be with all the time, and... oh the irony as I sit here, still continuously partner-free, after another day of the far more intense privacy and solitude of the past six months!)
This past summer, the summer of 2020, is very, very clearly bound to become a longer-term memory of the former kind: its extreme flavor is unmistakable. As is probably the case for most of us, my experience of summer 2020 has been shaped almost entirely shaped by the pandemic we're still in the midst of. For me this has meant constantly being home alone (although I settled pretty soon on into a pattern of going on daily bike rides and weekly supermarket trips plus a number of other types of errands. Also, a caveat to the rest of this paragraph is that my parents visited one weekend and that provided an exception to some of the otherwise constant conditions below.) I became uncharacteristically super introverted and very intent on making as much research progress as possible in the absence of teaching duties. None of this has been too unpleasant, but there has been a complete and utter lack of any form of fun, both in traveling (this may hold the record of the only summer where I stayed in the same 6-mile radius the entire time) and in social events. The one positively pleasant thing in my life this summer was discovering the most beautiful area for cycling in any place I've lived, as well as a handful of late-evening warm-summer-night walks. The extreme degree of loneliness and the necessity of self-discipline to keep my wheels turning has been smothering, and actually I think I dealt with it much better than I would ever have imagined I could if someone had told me this was coming a year ago.
I'd say my summer was a personal success in that way and in most other ways apart from the main concrete objective of completing a research preprint, which failed quite badly and is putting my career aspirations in a very precarious place (it would have been nice to get some heavier blogging done as well). One could say that this was a less important goal than that of not letting my mental health spiral, though, and I did succeed quite well at the latter. (In fact, I was doing much worse in January and February than I was when the pandemic hit.) I'm upset that my goals seem to take me much longer than I feel they should but am glad that this doesn't seem to be due to an inability to sit down and focus on the work, as was the case with research during some summers of grad school.
Part of the flavor of summer 2020 that will live on in my memory has to do with my being home alone so much of the time, never having to get near other people, in an apartment that I kept hot, that, let's just say it took me a ridiculously long time to accumulate each laundry load and there were often T-shirts draped over my sofa to be reused for an hour or two at a time over multiple days.
While I'm continuing on this gratuitously self-absorbed vein, as I've noted that I love keeping track of personal "endurance" records, I've (again unsurprisingly, because of the situation) made a bunch of them which I'll finish by taking note of here:
Longest time without stepping out of the front door: I actually was careful to make sure I never stayed entirely inside for two days in a row, but it finally happened the weekend before last (after a late Friday night walk in my complex where I may or may not have gotten back inside by midnight). I believe it was 61 hours, or very nearly 61 hours, without exiting my apartment. This may be a lifelong record; the only other event that compares was a 2-3-day period in March 2011 when I was very feverishly ill in the wake of a snowstorm, and I don't recall how far beyond 48 hours I stayed in.
Longest time without going into my office (or even onto my campus) in over a decade of having an office: from April 2nd to August 11th. Hardly a unique one here, but I never thought I could have handled only having my home to work in for over four months.
Longest time not going near any public transportation whatsoever, since high school: Sunday March 8th (or just after midnight on March 9th, a bus ride as the final leg of the journey home from my last trip of any sort) to 26 Sundays later on September 6th because of having to leave my bike in the shop.
Longest stretch of time not withdrawing cash or paying for something in cash: since sometime in early March and counting. The only times I've touched the cash in my wallet at all during all of this time was on two occasions when I gave a bill to someone in need.
Longest time since age 19 not touching a drop of alcohol: since April 11th (at a virtual birthday party of a friend) and continuing. This smashes a record from last fall of something like 54 days.
Longest time with the thermostat completely off (no use of heat or AC): from one of the last days of March to, I think, June 4th. This was nothing to do with the pandemic (in fact, it makes the pandemic situation slightly more remarkable since I've had to be home for a lot more of the time); the spring where I am was just particularly pleasant.
Longest time not shaving my facial hair: 32 days in the late summer, breaking a record from earlier in the summer of exactly a month.
There are probably other even sillier ones, such as the fact that I’m pretty sure I didn’t put on shoes from sometime at the start of June to a few days ago. You’d also think I’d break an endurance record for not uttering a spoken word to anyone, but I haven’t kept track of that.
Let’s hope future intervals in my life are much less extreme and record-breaking; that’s the gist of what I wish for everyone right now.
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For Those New To EXO!
EXO was originally divided as EXO-K and EXO-M: “K” stood for Korean and “M” for Mandarin. One sub-unit would promote in Korea and the other would promote in China). They debuted as 12 members in 2012 with 6 per sub-unit, but two membersleft in the year 2014 (names: Kris and Luhan) and one left in 2015 (name: Tao). The reasons as to why they left are due to personal issues, health issues, and conflict with their company. A lot of fans left during those years and many people believed that they'd flop after these events. Many didn’t even believe in EXO’s success even before they lost members, that they wouldn’t become so popular. Obviously, the opposite happened.
There are only 9 members now. Ordered from oldest to youngest: Xiumin (3/26/1990), Suho (5/22/1991), Lay (10/7/1991), Baekhyun (5/6/1992), Chen (9/21/1992), Chanyeol (11/27/1992), D.O (1/12/1993), Kai (1/14/1994), Sehun (4/12/1994).
EXO debuted with the concept of being “aliens” with superpowers; coming from Exoplanet, they’re protectors of the tree of life and have come to earth in order to protect the heart of the tree of life and now earth from the red force. Each member has their own power and symbol: Xiumin-Ice, Suho-Water, Lay-Healing, Baekhyun-Light, Chen-Lightning, Chanyeol-Fire, D.O-Force/Earth, Kai-Teleportation, and Sehun-Wind. (They also each have their own number for clothing/jerseys). This superpower concept has remained in each comeback, and they’re one of the only (if not, the) groups to have such a foundation and artistic style based on the same concept for so long.
Despite people’s pessimistic view of the group, EXO was a really hyped up group by their company with a total of 23 teasers starting on December 21, 2011. Each teaser was made to slowly reveal who is who in the band, their concept, and their capabilities as rookies. This was done until March 21, 2012, and during that time two music videos were made prior to debut. Those music videos were not yet their official debut.
Side note: EXO-M only had 4 Chinese members: Kris, Luhan, Lay, and Tao. Xiumin and Chen were also in EXO-M but they are Korean.
Another side note: they still do create Chinese versions of their songs, they also had a Japanese debut in 2015 so they also have some Japanese discography as well.
ANOTHER SIDE NOTE: A sub-unit of EXO, EXO-CBX, debuted in 2016 and the member Lay also had his solo debut the same year (Lay’s solo discography are all written, arranged, and produced by him). EXO-CBX consists of the members Chen, Baekhyun, and Xiumin.
LAST SIDE NOTE: The EXO fandom is called EXO-L. The 'L' stands for Love. In the alphabet, the letter “L” is the 12th letter (for twelve members) and links the letters K (EXO-K) and M (EXO-M). EXO-Ls are considered to be a sub-unit of EXO so: EXO-K + EXO-L + EXO-M = One. Therefore, the band's slogan "WE ARE ONE!" means that the band members and the fans are ONE. EXO-Ls are in charge of promoting worldwide Love for EXO-K and EXO-M."
EXO MUSIC VIDEOS IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:
What Is Love (January 30th, 2012)
History (March 9th, 2012)
MAMA (April 8th, 2012) - Their official debut song/anniversary date.
Wolf (May 30th, 2013) - first time promoting as a whole group.
Growl (August 1st, 2013 and for the 2nd version, which has a different visual theme, August 20th, 2013)
Miracles in December (December 4th, 2013) - Winter M/V.
Overdose (May 6th, 2014)
Call Me Baby (March 30th, 2015)
Love Me Right (June 3rd, 2015) - there's a Japanese version which is their Japan debut single (Love Me Right ~Romantic Universe~).
Lightsaber (November 11th, 2015) - promotional single for Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Sing For You (December 10th, 2015) - Winter M/V.
Lucky One (June 9th, 2016) - Double Title Album.
Monster (June 9th, 2016) - Double Title Album.
Lotto (August 18th, 2016)
Dancing King (September 17th, 2016) - a collaboration with Yoo Jae Suk, a single for SM Station Season 1.
Coming Over (November 18th, 2016) - Japan comeback single and also a short video.
For Life (December 19th, 2016) - Winter M/V.
Ko Ko Bop (July 18th, 2017)
Power (September 5th, 2017)
Electric Kiss Short Version (December 5th, 2017) -Title track for their first full Japanese Album.
Universe (December 26th, 2017) - Winter M/V
Don’t Mess Up My Tempo (Novermber 2nd, 2018) - the first comeback to feature member Lay since For Life in 2016.
EXO-CBX Music Videos:
Hey Mama! (October 31st, 2016) - Sub-unit debut song.
The One (November 6th, 2016) - first shown during their concert tour Exo Planet #3-The Exordium, which lead to suspicions of the sub-unit, which was also later confirmed after the three members sang an OST (original soundtrack) for a K-Drama (Moon Lovers: Scarlet Heart Ryeo) with the title "For You".
Crush U (December 25th, 2016) - a remake of the original soundtrack for the game Blade & Soul, performed first on November 18th.
Ka-Ching! (May 1st, 2017) - short music video for their Japanese debut.
Blooming Day (April 10th, 2018) - Korean comeback.
Horololo (April 24th, 2018) - released prior to their Japanese comeback in May.
LAY’S SOLO WORK:
Monodrama (May 27th, 2016) - SM Station solo song, prior to his solo debut and the first Chinese song of SM station.
what U need? (October 7th, 2016) - The music video was released on his birthday as a gift for his fans and for the promotion of his solo album later that month.
Lose Control (October 28th, 2016) - His solo debut with Lose Control being the title track and name of his EP.
I Need U (September 25th, 2017) - pre-released single from his Lay 02 Sheep album, it was dedicated to his grandparents for their 50th anniversary and was actually written at the same time as “what U need?” since it is a response to the 2016 single.
Sheep (October 7th, 2017) - title track for his second album Lay 02 Sheep.
Goodbye Christmas (December 22nd, 2017) - title track of his winter extended play Winter Special Gift.
Give Me A Chance (October 7th, 2018) - pre-release single for his album Namanana.
NAMANANA (October 19th, 2018) - title track for the third album. It’s also his official U.S. debut under the name Lay Zhang. Each song on the album is both in Chinese and English, totaling to a count of 22 tracks.
EXO is a group that has broken multiple records: fastest selling concerts (0.2 seconds), youngest group ever to perform at Tokyo Dome, best selling artist in Korea for 4 years in a row, 4 million sellers, etc. Even individually, members have broken records (Lay’s Lose Control EP broke seven out of eight Guinness World Records on the YinYueTai China Weekly Charts). They’ve made monumental achievements not only as an idol group but have given great contributions to the Hallyu wave (performed at the Pyeongchang Olympics closing ceremony, first artist/k-pop act/non-royal to be displayed on the led screens of the Burj Khalifa, etc.).
#a remake#exo#park chanyeol#chanyeol#do kyungsoo#kyungsoo#D.O#exo d.o#oh sehun#sehun#kim jongdae#jongdae#exo chen#kim jongin#jongin#exo kai#yixing#zhang yixing#exo lay#lay zhang#byun baekhyun#baekhyun#kim minseok#minseok#exo xiumin#exo suho#kim junmyeon#junmyeon#don’t mess up my tempo#exo-l
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5 years of the PokémonJesus
Before the night comes to a close, I would like to personally reflect on today’s importance (thus the reason for the Takeover queue). It’s been 5 years since I officially became engaged with this fandom that has really became a weekly routine of mine when new episodes come out. This is really just to put my thoughts out there in the blog archive, so I would prefer if no one reblogs this. P J’s beginnings started all the way back with Serebii Forums...
2013-2014 (The Pokémon forums Era)
I have been lurking in the fandom as early as the Best Wishes days, and often visit sites like Serebii Forums or tumblr’s Pokémon anime tags around 2011. I usually talk Pokémon online when it comes to the games when battling or trading in certain chat rooms (was really active during the Gen. IV era of games), but never really talked about the anime with. I have been a spectator to the discussion while the BW saga was rolling a long, then I decided on September 26th 2013 (which was the airdate for the final BW! episode in Japan) to create a serebiiforums account under the username PokemonJesus123, just in time for the start of the XY series which I was mad hyped about! I WAS A FAN SINCE DAY 1...some y’all just tagged along in XY&Z NO LOYALTY xD . My serebii profile is still there actually, so you can try to find my old inactive page if you want lol (my avatar was me holding up my 3DS in a cringey way...looking back why tf did I take that photo lol delete later). Coming into 2014, I joined tumblr as well under the url name you see right before you. Never changed it, and probably never will. The origin of this name you ask? You’ll just have to ask me personally for that story 😉 I absolutely joined tumblr out of pure boredom to view and follow blogs I was a fan of. I had no intention of posting whatsoever. Oh, and I made a Twitter account under the P J name too! Follow ME :^)
2014-2015 (Thursday LIVE! tumblr era)
After a couple months of finally creating a tumblr account and actively posting on serebiiforums and bulbagarden, XY episode 50 (the episode where big lips Nini/Nene debuted) was the first EVER Pokémon anime episode I ever posted about in my blog. I was still new the #pokeani tag (funny story, I didn’t really knew what it meant back then besides to tag it lol), but I got as much as around 30-100 notes. Seeing those notes already got excited that it pushed me from making it a weekly thing since I had a livestream to watch it every Thursday night and screen-cap it. My goal from the very beginning was to try to be the first one to post about here, like what the Japanese fans do on Twitter under the #Anipoke tag. Of course, most of my notes came from either an AmourShipping post or a Serena post. I’m not going to lie, I was really a huge Serena fan when the series first started. I rambled a lot too getting hyped for Citron/Clemont episodes because he was probably my favorite character at the time xD
2015-2016 (A growing blog)
This was the era I started to do special long posts in celebration with Pokémon’s 20th anniversary. Around this period is where my blog was in a developing state getting like 2 or 3 followers every week. And trust me, there were A LOT of posts that I regret posting, but I learned to watch my words every week and say the right things (I really try not to trigger anyone here). I took a couple of weeks off when new episodes aired since I was really busy with college, or I wasn’t into XY filler episodes that much. Would usually tune in live when Team Flare was involved or anything with Squishy/Puni-chan (I absolutely ADORED Bonnie/Eureka in this arc), but I didn’t post that much on tumblr...unless if there was like an AmourShipping moment that happened xD. The hype for Gen. VII was already looming, and I kinda got bored from the anime A BIT. When Ash-Greninja came into the picture however, I got excited again! Then the Kalos League happened, and the anticipation of Ash’s journey hit a climax! We all know what happened, and the rest was history...
2016-2017 (GIFmaking era)
So the Sun & Moon anime happened late 2016, and the hype for a new series was within me again! This is when my blog REALLY started to boom, as well as the birth of my Pokémon Discord server PokéTōku. My notes were higher than over compared to what I posted from XY. One possible reason is that a lot of pokeani bloggers from back then weren’t really interested in Sun & Moon (probably because of the animation change), so I was one of few who still stayed for the ride and that really benefited my blog’s exposure. I absolutely loved Lillie’s character development, and I also did not expect myself to enjoy Lana/Suiren’s character so much! Brock & Misty’s was a huge highlight for me as well seeing my childhood come to a modern-day Pokémon series. I was surprised to have popular people reblog my stuff that destroys my notifications per second. I was even flattered when popular pokéblogs such as shelgon, corsolanite, chasekip, and a few others followed me. Back then I really wanted to get a lot of notes, but at this point I just wanted to be myself and post screen-caps that I feel like talking about. The series also motivated me to start making GIFs since I finally had access to Adobe Photoshop through my university’s application benefits. Later in 2017, I graduated from college and it gave me more time to improving my blog. Also, can you believe it took me 3 years to get 1,000 followers? If you asked me from day 1, I would have never expected to get that much since I had no idea about tumblr’s audience.
Everyone here knows that my blog doesn’t really follow “traditional” tumblr methods such as tags or making specific posts and what not (since I’m not really that into the tumblr culture lol...I’m just here for fun doing my own thing), but I hope I’ve brought something different to your dash experience 🙃
2017-2018 (Making friends)
From 1,000 to 2,500+ followers the next year. You’d be surprise how small that still is compared to the other popular Pokéblogs that joined tumblr later than me, but I��m still grateful for that number. My hype for movie 20 was crazy! I’d always make a post about it when a new trailer was out. But just like Sun & Moon, not everyone was looking forward to the AU it produced. The Let’s Go games shared the same fate as well since everyone didn’t want another Kanto, but I always defend the things that deserve a chance! I fairly enjoyed movie 20 though, and was the first movie that I posted screen-caps and GIFs for in this blog, even made an experience post about it watching it in the theaters! What’s MOST important to me during this time was actually interacting with some of my followers...or should I say friends now :) Out of the 5 years I’ve been here (not counting serebiiforum peeps I’ve known since 2013), I only recently talked to some of you around 2017. My interactions with people here have been awesome (for the most part at least lol) from sharing interests, geeking out over the anime, sending memes xD and concerns when P J isn’t feeling P J. You know who you are, and THANK YOU for cheering your boy up in times when I needed it despite not telling you about it <3 Going back to PokéAni hype, my next excitement attack was when they announced the Aether Foundation and Ultra Beasts were getting involved in the main story. It really makes up for no Alola movie...but hey we still got 1 year left, so maybe there’s hope?
Despite the brief breaks I took, P J’s activeness in the fandom has reached its highest when I managed the time to do scheduled posts and even started a few mini-blog series this year. Even during stressful times, I always make it an effort to find time and contribute to the fandom. I honestly don’t care if I get any asks because I know who the real homies are ◉‿◉つ A special shoutout as well to all the people that joined my Discord server through this website. I couldn’t have reached 100+ members without some of your blogs ^_^ And to the lurkers out there (I know some of y’all are creepin’ in the shadows of my blog without liking anything), you may not know it but I love you people too ლ(́◉◞౪◟◉‵ლ)
Anyway this is just a summary of my journey here so far, and if you’d to hear a more in-depth story on some toxic things I’ve experienced in this fandom just message me. I personally don’t like venting out stuff in public because it just promotes more negativity, and I’m not about that. I will make a separate post on my feelings toward the schedule change maybe next week, and an appreciation post (5th tumblr blogaversary) for my specific followers January 2019. I am still preparing for that because there are so many people (even ones I don’t even talk to) I want to thank ❤ Moving forward into my 6th year, I probably won’t make another post like this anytime soon...but I am very hopeful for the future of the SM series and possible Gen. 8 anime late 2019. I also do plan on making some PokéAni-related stuff in my YouTube channel when the time is right, and have the resources to do projects. Keep your eyes out fam 👀LET’S F’N GO!
#The PokémonJesus reflection#P J's thoughts#PokeAni#Pokemon anime#5 years of being in the PokéAni fandom...what a bumpy ride#TPJ Takeover#END_TAKEOVER...good times and good night! Until next post PEACE ✌️
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Heya, I'm writing a story in which it is revealed through flashbacks that one of the male characters used to be female. They transitioned pretty young, (around 6th-7th grade) and I was wondering how I would write them coming out and transitioning? What are the emotions involved in that, how would living as a girly-girl, enforced by his parents until around 6th-7th grade affect him? How would other people treat them? I don't have the first clue of where to start.
I answered a question about trans folks around that age before that may be able to help you.
I would also seek to avoid using the terminology, “used to be female” since a trans person is who they say they are. It doesn’t matter whether they have transitioned or not. Some trans people do say this as a joke, or to try and find a simple way for cis people to get the point. But it is a gross simplification and a bit invalidating to most.
I’m going to talk a bit about my personal experiences being raised “a girly girl” and how that worked out for me and my parents.
What happened for me was child abuse, so it is going under a readmore. Nothing extraordinarily graphic is described, except for an incident of having my ears pierced that my toddler brain found traumatizing. The rest out of what is described is mainly psychological abuse. If you need to sit out of reading this, that’s totally okay - but maybe don’t write about the enforcement of gender roles on trans kids if that is the case. In order to represent it well, you kind of need to understand that it is on the spectrum of child abuse, and I explain it in more detail here.
As for stuff that doesn’t answer, I grew up as a “girly girl” and my parents kind of treated me as a doll. My mom actually was a copywriter (she put together flyers for a box store chain) and at the time people working there and their families would be picked to model for their clothing in the flyers. So I modelled baby clothes. (Including for snowsuits - which we shot the photos for in the summer heat.)
I still think this is pretty cool and fun to talk about, but it existed as part of a greater pattern of my parents seeing me as something to project their desires in a daughter onto. You don’t really get a lot of opportunity to speak for yourself at that age. I also thought that all the stuff they did with me (getting my ears pierced as a toddler, before I was 3) was just normal. What really gets me about it is that they did a lot of that stuff when I was young because “they don’t remember anything then” but I do remember my ears getting pierced.
We were in a mall piercer and two employees were holding the piercing guns at my earlobes, me facing the mirror seeing this, and them counting down. As soon as it went in I burst out crying. It was a little before Easter, and I remembered because when we had walked for a few hours in the mall I noticed I had stopped crying when I saw the Easter bunny photo booth, and told my dad I’d stopped.
If you don’t already know this, piercing guns and mall piercers are generally seen as the Cardinal Sins Of Piercing Safety. The guns don’t and cannot get cleaned well, and mall piercers are generally not trained or experienced the way that piercers are elsewhere. My earlobes were infected on and off until I was 11 years old, and got them redone properly. (Sort of. It was at Claire’s accessory store. It was my decision then though.)
When you’re that young, there is a much higher chance that you will remember something if it is particularly traumatizing. On top of that, my dad had an uncanny long term memory that I inherited. When I was 8 we saw his elementary school principal in the mall, and stopped to have a conversation with him - a man that must have been nearly 100. They really could have guessed I would remember more than they wanted me to.
The thing with being raised in that way, by parents who desperately want you to be something, is that even when they come around, if they come around, it’s hard to trust them.
If you want to write this character as having a healthy relationship with his parents, those parents will need to have some serious self-growth, and at no point put it on their child to take responsibility for their own growth. I would suggest having them find a PFLAG or similar kind of organization. (Only maybe not PFLAG specifically. Just something that serves a similar sort of niche but for trans kids.) Having them go to therapy and unlearn what it was that made them feel the need to project hyperbolic femininity onto their young kid.
My mother always expressed this sort of misguided idea that my gender was a rebellion against her.
“Why are you so offended at the idea of being a woman?”
And when I first came out to her in March 2011, her response was to deny it by saying, “you were always more girly than like, into sports.”
We don’t currently speak, for a plethora of really complicated reasons. A lot of those reasons include transphobia, but it was much broader and more complicated. My mom wasn’t actively transphobic towards others and always thought of herself as fairly leftist and an ally. But god forbid, her child be trans or any sort of LGBT+ identity. I hear that a lot of other trans people have this experience with their parents. They don’t, deep down, see their children as individuals but rather something they created and have an inherent say in the nature of.
I carry with me a lot of really horrible mental stuff because of all this. It’s all really bad and I had to drop out of school twice and am unable to work. I’m not going to say that it was all because of this enforced girly-girl childhood, but to say that that, and the transphobia that comes with it, was not the last straw (or even a great portion of the straws) would be misrepresenting what I went through, and why I decided to cut my immediate family out of my life. I simply would not have survived otherwise, and I have recurring nightmares where I am trapped with them in a building or a town or a car and there is nothing I can do to get away.
If you are not ready to have a trans child, you are not ready to have a child.
People who strictly enforce gender roles on their children are generally not accepting when their child is trans.
Transphobic parents are abusive parents.
This proposed story idea is filled with a lot of complicated topics, which are difficult to convey.
I’m not sure if you came here first for research, or how long you are going to research before you feel ready to write this. I would suggest either pulling up on how much the “girly-girl” thing was enforced to minimize potential damage or doing even a few years of research, hiring trans sensitivity readers and consultants.
I know that I personally was not able to convey enough of my personal insight for this in a way that I feel would represent just my personal narrative right. It’s not the same universally and it takes a lot to be able to understand and represent this kind of story.
#mod nat#trans#trans: childhood#trans: relationships#trans: family#family#gender roles#child abuse#gender expectation#cisnormativity
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The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue: A Tale of Immortality A Decade in the Making
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The first time I ever interviewed V.E. Schwab, she told me about The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue. It was July 2018 and we were sitting in the lobby of the Hilton Bayfront Hotel during San Diego Comic Con. Schwab was in the midst of a promotional tour for Vengeful, the second book in her Villains series, with the launch of her middle grade fantasy series City of Ghosts just around the corner, but she couldn’t help but also mention then work-in-progress Addie.
“I never shut the fuck up about this book before I wrote it,” Schwab says, with a laugh, when I interview her again in 2020 and mention the conversation two years prior. “Everyone in my life was like, ‘Please stop talking about the damn book you haven’t written.'”
By those rules, Schwab can now talk about Addie LaRue as much as she damn well pleases. The book is not only written, but poised to hit bookshelves in less than a week, on October 6th. It’s a long time coming for the author, who first imagined up the idea of Addie LaRue almost a decade ago, in 2011. At the time, she was living in someone’s Liverpudlian shed and, in an effort to get away for the day, took up a housemate on her offer of a ride to the U.K.’s picturesque Lake District.
“She dropped me in this tiny little village called Ambleside and, for eight hours, I just wandered these fairy-like woods,” Schwab recalled, back in 2018. “And I was thinking about Peter Pan, because I had just reread the original Peter Pan, and thought about how sad it is because it ends with him already forgetting Wendy. And I started thinking, ‘That’s really sad… but it’s not sad for him, because he forgets. What would it be like if everybody else forgot?’ And so Addie LaRue stemmed from this moment, just wandering…”
Addie LaRue is an 18th-century French woman who makes a deal with the devil to live forever and, in the process, is cursed to be forgotten by everyone she meets. The pact’s fine print is put in place by the god-like creature Addie calls Luc as a tactic for convincing Addie to more quickly give up her immortal life and surrender her soul. Three hundred years later, in 2014 New York City, Addie is still defiantly living, but it hasn’t been easy. The curse keeps her from being unable to hold property, unable to keep a regular job, and unable to have any kind of sustained relationship. She is impossibly lonely and then, one day, she meets a man named Henry and he does something impossible too: he remembers her.
A narrative about a girl cursed to be forgotten is perhaps an ironic story for Schwab to tell. At the age of 33, Schwab has already published 21 books (if you count graphic novels, which we do). From her books and short stories to her social media presence and this speech, Schwab has already left her mark on recorded history. But anxieties are not always rational—it is so very human to be conscious of the passing of time, and it is so very millennial to be anxious about not finishing what feels important before the next tragedy strikes.
“[The passage of time is] something I was aware of when I was 10 and 16 and 22,” says Schwab, “but I didn’t know that was going to be the central theme of the book. In fact, I didn’t really know until my fear of writing the book wrong became replaced by fear of dying without writing the book at all. When I was 29 and I realized, ‘Oh my God, I have to get it down on paper. I’m running out of time.’ And that concept of running out of time, which then trickled through Henry and trickled through Addie. And I started to realize, oh my God, this is not a book about a deal with the devil. It’s a book about the loneliness of feeling like life is passing too fast.”
It’s also a book about the realities of moving through the world as a (white) woman. The rules of Addie’s curse to be forgotten are exaggerated depictions of the realities of being a woman and/or a part of other marginalized communities for much of history: barred from most paid work, unable to hold property, and erased from recorded history.
“I wanted to examine autonomy,” says Schwab when I ask her about this metaphorical quality of the curse’s depiction. “There was so little autonomy for women, even Addie who had chosen to be independent.”
Addie first makes the deal with Luc because she is desperate to avoid being married, what she understandably sees as a curse of its own kind. Addie longs to be free and independent, though, at 23, she does not yet know what that might look like—after all, she has lived almost her entire life in one, small village. In her state of distress, Luc comes up with a twisted definition of independence for her: a curse that keeps Addie from being remembered, from even being able to say her name. It is far from the dream of being “left alone to grow” that Addie wants for herself, even if it technically fits the description.
Credit: Rengin Tumer
“She’s thrust into the world, ostensibly autonomous, but with none of the benefits of autonomy,” explains Schwab. “No money, no status, no stability, no identity. And so I absolutely wanted to explore what happens when you’re then given physical autonomy and nothing else. How do you support yourself? How do you survive? And it’s not as easy. We tell these immortality tales of men where all of a sudden they’re immortal and it’s just like, go get rich, go have fun, go have 100 mistresses and just sleep your way through eternity. But women would never have that option.”
While The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue doesn’t languish in the most desperate parts of Addie’s long life, it doesn’t avoid them either. We are with Addie when she first realizes her parents can’t remember her, when she realizes she must steal to eat, and when she turns to the only profession accessible to woman for much of human history.
“[The exploration of woman’s autonomy is] one of the reasons that I created a path of movement for Addie the way that I did instead of just letting it be a travelogue of Addie through the ages, through all of the world,” says Schwab. “I still had to be keenly aware of the fact that she was a woman and she couldn’t die, but she could be made to suffer. She could struggle. And so she wasn’t seeking world travel. She was seeking safety and there was never any safety for her. There was never anything lasting.”
But this story doesn’t solely take place in the “then”; it also takes place in the “now,” or close enough to call it so. And, by 2014, Addie has figured some things out. She knows how to find a place to stay and all the best spots in New York City. She knows how to steal new clothes and what to say when she wakes up in somebody’s bed and they can’t remember their night together. She does not know quite what to do, however, when she stumbles upon Henry, the first person in 300 years who has remembered her. In many ways, neither did Schwab. The author calls Henry’s initial sections “the hardest part of the book to write,” as we move from a story told solely the perspective of an immortal girl desperate to defy the devil by living forever to a dual-perspective narrative that includes the insights of a contemporary boy having a rough time of it in New York City.
“I was very scared of writing Henry,” says Schwab, “because, if I had written him wrong, he could have come off as just whiny, millennial white boy who has everything and can’t seem to get his shit together. I was really afraid of him being the weakest link in the story.” Henry earns his role in the story, and the relative smallness of his life grounds a tale of gods and souls and immortality in something more recognizable, especially for millennials living with mental illness.
“Essentially, what I did, is I gave him me,” says Schwab of her tactic for keeping Henry from becoming an ineffective character. “Really in this triptych, of these three characters, he is the only human. I gave him every one of my fears and every one of my insecurities and every one of my suicidal thoughts. I made him exactly who I would be if I hadn’t found writing when I did. Which is to say, I was the kid who went through college thinking, ‘How am I supposed to pick? Because saying yes to one thing is saying no to a hundred others. How am I supposed to know what’s right? And is what’s right for me now, what’s right for me in 10 years? How am I even going to survive 10 years?’ I gave him all of that panic that leads to all of that paralysis that some of us feel, as everyone else looks at us and says, ‘You should understand what you’re doing by now.'”
While Henry may be a necessary and welcome point-of-view character for us contemporary readers, his name isn’t on the book’s cover. This story belongs to Addie LaRue, and Schwab never forgets it. “I wanted to give [Henry] a moment,” says Schwab, “but he could never take up the space that Addie takes up. It’s not his story.” This is Addie’s story, and it is Schwab’s—one she’s carried with her for a long while, since that fateful amble in Ambleside almost a decade ago. After so long, Schwab says she’s not quite ready to let go of the story.
“I’m not sure I’ll ever be ready,” says Schwab. “This part never gets easier, but it was the first book I’ve ever written where, when I finished writing it, I thought to myself, ‘If I never write another book, I’ll be okay.'”
Does Schwab have another Addie, a long-fermenting story she is carrying with her that will one day be something others can carry too? That’s not how these kinds of stories work, says Schwab.
“There was not enough space in my head and my heart to carry two,” she continues. “Right now, I’m very scared of the fact that I don’t have my next Addie, but I think you don’t necessarily always know. When I started thinking about Addie, did I think it was going to take 10 years to write? God no. I never would have done it. So maybe I do have the next Addie in my head and I just don’t know it yet.”
Schwab hopefully has many more stories left to tell—from an outside perspective, the author seems to be very much in the middle of a long and prolific speculative fiction career. Even so, Addie LaRue is special to the author. As she puts it: “There will never be another story for me like this one.”
The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue will be available wherever books are sold on October 6th. Find out more about the book and how to purchase it here.
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Artist to listen: Watsky
I doubt that many of you recognize George Watsky by his name, but there is a good chance you have already seen him around on the internet. If you are subscribed to the YouTube channel Epic Rap Battles of History, then let me tell you that Watsky was featured in 3 of their videos, incarnating William Shakespeare, Edgar Allan Poe and the 4th Doctor of Doctor Who; if you used to watch YouTube’s viral videos back in 2011, then you probably know him for being the author of the viral video Pale Kid Raps Fast, where he raps fast as hell; or perhaps you know him because you are great fans of the duo twenty one pilots (Josh Dun was featured on the song Midnight Heart); or you might know him for any other reason. Or not. But anyway, this post was made for those who have never heard of him, or have but never had the curiosity to know more about him.
So, I’ll start by introducing him. George Watsky is a rapper, poet and writer born on 15th September 1986 in San Francisco, California (USA), alongside with his twin brother: Simon. Watsky has been interested on music since he was very young. In fact,is first hip-hop song, Nosy Clowns, was created back in 2002, when he was in high-school (it is now available on his SoundCloud). But George only started to draw attention as a poet (more specifically as a slam-poetry artist), after winning the Youth Speaks Grand Slam Final, in 2006, and being featured on the 6th season of Russel Simmons Presents Def Poetry (HBO), in 2007. After this success, Watsky started his musical career, creating the jazz hip-hop band Invisible Inc. with two friends (Max Miller-Loran and Daniel Riera). On 1st July 2007, the trio released the album Invisible Inc., which actually didn’t get much success. Actually, so far, the album is still goes unnoticed, except maybe the single Mr. Nice Guy. After this brief project, Watsky decides to go on with his career, but this time as a solo artist. Invisible Inc. reunited again in 2016 to record an Anti-Trump song for Watsky’s album x Infinity: Pink Lemonade. There are rumors that there will be a second album in 2017 or 2018.
On 1st November 2009, Watsky released his first solo album: Watsky. This album has two singles: Fuck an Emcee Name and The Girl Next Door. The album ended up on 7th place on the hip-hop category on iTunes. In January 2011, Watsky released his viral video, Pale Kid Raps Fast, on Youtube. Today, the video is non-listed, but it has over 20 million views. Because of this video, Watsky ended up being a guest of The Ellen Show twice! In the same year, he was considered the Big Sound of 2011, alongside with Mac Miller, Kreayshawn and Skrillex. But between these four, Watsky was the less-successful. 2012 was a busy year for Watsky. On 1st February he released a collaboration album with Kush Mody: Watsky & Mody. The album had four singles: Ghost Party, Mrs. Robinson, Kick Monday (In the Nutsack) and Man of Constant Sorrow; on 11th July he released the mixtape Nothing Like the First Time, which has nine singles; and a bit more than a month later, on 1st August, he released a second mixtape, A New Kind of Sexy, which has six singles. But Watsky only started to be closely as popular as he is now after releasing his second solo album - Cardboard Castles - on 12th March 2013. The singles are Strong as an Oak, Moral of the Story and Hey, Asshole. This album reached the 1st place on hip-hop albums on iTunes. 17 months later, he released his third solo album, All You Can Do, with Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, Ink Don’t Bleed, Right Now and All You Can Do as singles. Whoa, Whoa, Whoa is his most popular track so far, with 12 million views on YouTube (I’m not counting with Pale Kid Raps Fast, which wasn’t even on an album. It was just a viral video) After finishing the tour of his third album, Watsky decides to have a break in music. In 2015, he is only seen as a featured artists on the singles Nobody and Never Afraid, by Spose and MC Lars, respectively. The hiatus ended when, on 27th April 2016, he uploaded a video on his YouTube channel announcing the release of his book How to Ruin Everything, release that would happen on 14th July of the same year. At the time, there were rumors that a 4th solo album would be released soon. Those rumors intensified when, on 1st July 2016, Watsky released his song Stick to Your Guns. The fourth album, which would be called x Infinity, was confirmed on 8th July 2016, after the releasing of the single Tiny Glowing Screens, Pt.3. The album was released on 19th August 2016, with Stick to Your Guns, Tiny Glowing Screens Pt.3, Midnight Heart and Talking to Myself as singles. This album hit the 33rd place on Billboard 200, being the first time at all to be included on the list, and the 4th place on iTunes in the category of hip-hop. Watsky later promised that he would make a music video for every track of the album. He’s been doing so. The last one to be released was Lovely Thing Suite Part 2: Knots, on 17th May 2017. I also want to underline the fact that Watsky was featured on Lin-Manuel Miranda’s mixtape The Hamilton Mixtape, with the song An Open Letter, featuring the beatboxer Shockwave, and the release of his “secret album”, Plane 651, as a secret message on the x Infinity track Don’t Be Nice, leading to the site www.kisswatskysgluteusmaximus.com.
Now, my opinion about the artist: He is really good and talented. Actually, my favourite rapper. I discovered him through the YouTube channel Epic Rap Battles of HIstory. The first songs I listened to were Wounded Healer, Bet Against Me and Stupidass. Time passed, and I found myself listening to more and more Watsky. Today, there are very few of his songs I don’t really like. A thing I love about this rapper it’s his diversity. He has songs about politics (Stick to Your Guns and Pink Lemonade), about philosophy matters, specially death (Wounded Healer, Talking to Myself, the three parts of Tiny Glowing Screens and the four parts of Lovely Thing Suite), motivational songs (Never Let it Die, D.A.N.C.E. and Midnight Heart), or songs that make us laugh (IDGAF, Ugly Faces, Exquisite Corpse and Pauly Shore Saw My Penis). I think that all this diversity shows Watsky’s personality somehow, because his lyrics are very personal. You can go from his problem with seizures to his thoughts about the irrelevance of the human race compared to the universe to his narcissism. Actually, to prove how personal are his lyrics: His book, How to Ruin Everything, talk about many funny stories (or just deep thoughts, but it’s mostly funny stories) about his past. A lot of those stories were referenced, even if just briefly, on many of his songs, like Wounded Healer, Women, Women, Women, Fireworks, etc..., way before the book was released, like the night he spent in prision, or the first time he got drunk, in Europe. Other thing I admire on Watsky is the fact that he is tireless! Since 2006, he performed slam-poetry on more than 150 universities; he released a total of 53 music videos, participating as a guest in other four (Paul Hollens, Spose and MC Lars (and other 8 for the new album are confirmed); he released five solo albums (if you include his “secret” album Plane 651); an album with Invisible Inc.; a collab album with Kush Mody; two mixtapes; many awards for his slam-poetry, specially between 2006 and 2008; he participated in more than 300 shows of slam-poetry and music, being almost impossible to give you an exact number; he published a book; and he co-founded Steel Wool Media alongside with Brad Simpson. Tireless! Respect!
So, the artist to listen is George Watsky. Wanna give him a shot? I advice you to start with Dent in the Moon, Sloppy Seconds, Talking to Myself and Midnight Heart first! I’ll leave you with some quotes of Watsky’s songs and poems.
“I can’t really tell if I’m a good person or if I’m faking really well” - Ten Fingers “Because you know what’s awesome? World peace. And you know what else is awesome? Catapults.” - Letter to my 16 Year Old Self “There are 7 billion 46 million people on the planet and I have the audacity to think I matter!” - Tiny Glowing Screens, Pt.2 “I thought this was a party, but all my friends are leaving and I still wanna play” “Although the thought of paradise is very nice, in my heart I know I don’t believe in magic so I’m thinking death is like an eternal TV static” - Lovely Thing Suite: Conversations “I thought I was an atheist until I realised I’m a God” - Whoa, Whoa, Whoa “I’m not Jesus Chist, but I can turn water into Kool-Aid.” - Drunk Text Message to God
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The Yankees and the 2018-19 Offseason Calendar
Fan Confidence Poll: October 29th, 2018
(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Last night the Red Sox clinched the 2018 World Series championship with a Game Five win over the Dodgers. That is now four titles in the last 15 years for the BoSox after zero titles in their previous 86 years. The Dodgers are still looking for their first championship since 1988.
Anyway, now that the World Series and the 2018 baseball season are over, the 2018-19 offseason is officially underway. There are a ton of important dates and deadlines coming up these next few weeks, plus some not so important ones as well. Here is the offseason calendar and what each of these dates means for the Yankees.
Today, October 29th: The start of free agency, kinda As of 9am ET today, all eligible players became free agents. Players used to have to file for free agency, which was a waste of everyone’s time, but now it happens automatically. Eight Yankees became free agents this morning: Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Adeiny Hechavarria, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, CC Sabathia, and Neil Walker. They aren’t able to sign with new teams just yet, but they are free agents. There are now 32 players on the 40-man roster.
Wednesday, October 31st: Option decisions due Generally speaking, all option decisions are due three days after the end of the World Series. Some contract stipulate other dates — my go-to example is the Phillies having to making a decision about their 2011 club option for Jimmy Rollins following the end of the 2009 World Series — but three days after the World Series is most common. I should note Masahiro Tanaka announced he wouldn’t opt-out a day before the deadline last year. Announcements could come earlier.
The Yankees have one option decision this offseason: Brett Gardner. They hold a $12.5M club option for Gardner next season with a $2M buyout. It is a net $10.5M decision. If they decline the option, Gardner gets his $2M and becomes a free agent. If they pick it up, he’s back next season with a $12.5 salary. My guess is the Yankees will decline the option and look to re-sign Gardner at a lower salary to play a more part-time/platoon role. We’ll see.
Friday, November 2nd: Qualifying offer and disabled list activation deadline The qualifying offer has been set at $17.9M this offseason and the Yankees only have two free agents eligible for it: Sabathia and, if his option is declined, Gardner. None of the other free agents are eligible for various reasons. The Yankees won’t make either Sabathia or Gardner the qualifying offer. They’d both accept it in a heartbeat. Sabathia could come back at something similar to his $10M salary this year. The Yankees wouldn’t decline Gardner’s $12.5M option only to turn around and give him the $17.9M qualifying offer, you know?
Also by this date, all players must be activated off the 60-day disabled list. The Yankees have four players on the 60-day DL: Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery), and Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines). Once these guys are activated, the Yankees will go from 32 players on the 40-man roster to 36 players on the 40-man roster. It’ll be 35 if Gardner’s option is declined.
Saturday, November 3rd: The start of free agency, for real The five-day exclusive negotiating period ends this coming Saturday and free agency will officially begin. Saturday is when free agents are truly free to negotiate and sign with any team. Keep in mind MLB free agency is a marathon, not a sprint. There typically is not a rash of signings on Day One. I do think we’ll see some second and third (and fourth and fifth) tier free agents sign earlier than usual after what happened with free agency last winter — Eduardo Escobar already re-signed with the D’Backs — but probably not this early.
Sunday, November 4th: Gold Glove winners announced The Yankees have three Gold Glove finalists this year: Gardner in left field, Tanaka at pitcher, and Aaron Judge in right field. I can’t see Judge beating out Mookie Betts. Gardner and Tanaka could win though. The last Yankee to win a Gold Glove was Gardner in 2016. The last time the Yankees had multiple Gold Glove winners in one season was 2012 with Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano. The Gold Glove winners will be announced during a live ESPN broadcast at 9pm ET. I guess MLB doesn’t want anyone watching.
Sunday, November 5th: Awards finalists announced MLB has been announcing three finalists for each of the four major awards (Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, MVP) for a few years now. They’re trying to generate some buzz during a slow time of the year. Judge’s injury takes him out of the AL MVP race and Luis Severino’s second half fade takes him out of the AL Cy Young race. I can’t see Aaron Boone finishing in the top three of the Manager of the Year voting either. Count on both Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres being among the three Rookie of the Year finalists though. It’ll be surprised if it’s not those two and Shohei Ohtani. The awards finalists will be announced during a live MLB Network broadcast at 6pm ET.
Tuesday, November 6th to Thursday, November 8th: GM meetings in San Diego Carlsbad, actually, but close enough. The GM meetings typically cover off-the-field stuff. I suspect improper use of electronics (sign stealing, etc.) will be a hot topic this year after the Astros were caught red-handed during the postseason. (Their excuse was they were monitoring their opponents electronically to make sure they weren’t using electronics improperly. Come on.)
Off-the-field matters are usually the focus here, but, whenever you put all 30 GMs together in one spot, deals can and do happen. The John Ryan Murphy-for-Aaron Hicks trade went down at the GM meetings. The groundwork for the three-team trade that brought Curtis Granderson to the Yankees was laid at the GM meetings way back in the day. Even if some deals aren’t completed at the GM meetings, they will surely be discussed, and possibly revisited and completed at a later date.
Thursday, November 8th: Silver Sluggers announced If Silver Sluggers are your thing, this is the date for you. Judge’s injury and Gary Sanchez’s poor year mean the Yankees don’t have a serious Silver Slugger candidate this year.
Thursday, November 8th to Thursday, November 15th: MLB Japan All-Star Series As they do every few offseasons, MLB is sending a team of All-Stars (“All-Stars”) to Japan to play a series of exhibition games against Nippon Pro Baseball All-Stars. So far seven players have committed to the event: Ronald Acuna Jr., Rhys Hoskins, Yadier Molina, Carlos Santana, Eugenio Suarez, Chris Taylor, and Christian Yelich. Don Mattingly will manage. Here are the game dates and locations:
November 8th to 11th: Tokyo
November 13th: Hiroshima
November 14th and 15th: Nagoya
I have to think MLB would love to get a Yankee on the roster. The Yankees are the sport’s most recognizable team and they’d help create buzz. Didi Gregorius would’ve been perfect for this event. He’s got a great personality and he spends every offseason traveling and making fun videos. Didi would’ve been great. Too bad he got hurt.
From MLB’s perspective, Judge would be ideal here, though he had the wrist injury in the second half may not want to push it. Perhaps MLB could convince Giancarlo Stanton? Eh. The rest of the roster will be announced sometime soon. I mean, this thing starts next week, so it has to be soon. The last Yankee to participate in the MLB Japan All-Star Series was Mike Myers in 2006. For real. Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams were part of the 2002 team. These games will all be televised live on MLB Network.
Update: The MLB roster was announced this morning. It includes no Yankees. So much for that.
Monday, November 12th: Qualifying offer decision deadline Players used to get seven days to decide whether to accept or reject the qualifying offer. Now they get ten. How very kind of the owners to give players that after receiving massive luxury tax concessions from the MLBPA. Anyway, the extra three days give these free agents a little extra time to shop around for a deal before taking or declining the qualifying offer. Again, the Yankees don’t have any qualifying offer candidates this year. This deadline means nothing to them. They’ll just monitor who rejects the qualifying offer and is attached to draft pick compensation. (The Yankees will have to give up their second highest draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus money each time they sign a qualified free agent this winter.)
Monday, November 12th to Thursday, November 15th: Major award winners announced It Manager of the Year on Monday, Rookie of the Year on Tuesday, Cy Young on Wednesday, and MVP on Thursday. Andujar and Torres both have a chance to be named Rookie of the Year. Maybe they’ll tie in the voting and be named co-Rookies of the Year! That’d be neat. But yeah, Ohtani’s gonna win. Sorry folks. All the awards are announced live during an MLB Network broadcast.
Andujar and Torres. (Presswire)
Wednesday, November 14th to Thursday, November 15th: Owners meetings in Atlanta A bunch of rich guys get together to talk about how rich they are and figure out ways to get even richer. They squeeze in some baseball talk if time allows. Nothing exciting happens here from a hot stove perspective, usually.
Tuesday, November 20th: Rule 5 Draft protection deadline The Yankees got a head start on their Rule 5 Draft protection this year when they called up Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley during the season. Also, Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects Cody Carroll, Juan De Paula, Josh Rogers, and Dillon Tate were traded away at the deadline.
Generally speaking, college players drafted no later than 2015 and high school players drafted no later than 2014 are Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, as are international free agents signed no later than 2014. Here are the Yankees’ notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects:
Catchers: Jason Lopez
Infielders: Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, Kyle Holder, Hoy Jun Park, Brandon Wagner
Outfielders: Trey Amburgey, Pablo Olivares
Pitchers: Nick Green, James Reeves, Erik Swanson
The Yankees will have four open 40-man roster spots once free agents are removed from the roster and 60-day DL guys are activated. It’ll be five spots if Gardner’s option is declined. I think Holder and Swanson are locks to be added to the 40-man with Amburgey, Green, and Wagner on the bubble. There’s always a chance for a surprise 40-man roster addition too, like Jonathan Loaisiga last year. He was much more highly regarded than I know I realized.
Keep in mind the Yankees can’t just load up their 40-man roster with Rule 5 Draft prospects. They have eight players becoming free agents, right? Well, those eight players have to be replaced, so those roster spots will be needed.
Monday, November 26th to Thursday, November 29th: MLBPA executive board meeting in Dallas The MLBPA is preparing for a labor war. The union made two high profile additions in recent weeks, which suggests they’re ready to dig in and make some demands in the next round of Collective Bargaining Agreement talks. Fortunately the current CBA does not expire until December 2021, so a work stoppage is not imminent. But this is the MLBPA’s first executive board meeting since the free agent hell of last offseason. Their CBA planning starts in earnest here.
Friday, November 30th: Non-tender deadline The non-tender deadline is usually December 2nd, but December 2nd is a Sunday this year, so MLB moved it up to the prior business day. On this date teams have to tender their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players a contract for the 2019 season. They don’t have to sign them, they just have to make a contract offer. Players who don’t receive a contract offer become free agents. They are considered … wait for it … non-tendered.
The Yankees could be in for an interesting non-tender deadline. Would they non-tender Didi Gregorius rather than pay him a projected $12.4M to rehab from Tommy John surgery next year, only to have him become a free agent after the season? Would they non-tender Sonny Gray and his projected $9.1M salary if they can’t find a trade partner? What about Tommy Kahnle? Is he so far gone that the Yankees dump him and his $1.5M projected salary?
Aside from those guys, I think the Yankees might try the non-tender/re-sign trick with Heller. They’ve non-tendered young players coming off injury and re-signed them to a minor league contract several times in the past, most notably with Domingo German and Vicente Campos. Heller’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and the non-tender is a way to get him off the 40-man roster and keep him in the organization without exposing him to waivers.
Monday, December 9th to Thursday, December 13th: Winter Meetings in Las Vegas The busiest week of the offseason, historically. This is when most major free agent signings and trades will take place. That was the case for years and years and years. How will things play out this offseason? After last winter, I could see teams waiting out free agents because it proved to be so effective last year. There were some great bargains to be had in January and February. In all likelihood the Winter Meetings will be packed with hot stove action (if not trades and signings, then at least rumors) because the Winter Meetings are always packed with hot stove action. Should be fun.
Monday, December 9th: Hall of Fame Today’s Game committee announcement The Hall of Fame replaced the old Veterans Committee with four “eras” committees a few years back: Early Baseball (pre-1950), Golden Days (1950-69), Modern Baseball (1970-87), and Today’s Game (1988 to present). The committees meet every few years in irregular intervals to vote on players who fell off the BBWAA ballot, and this winter the Today’s Game committee is up. It’s hard to know who will and who won’t be on the ballot, but the folks at Hall of Stats came up with some names. Former Yankees David Cone and Jimmy Key are among them.
Thursday, December 13th: Rule 5 Draft As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must remain on their new team’s 25-man big league roster all next season, or be placed on waivers and offered back to their original team. The Yankees had multiple players selected in each of the last three Rule 5 Drafts and one only (Luis Torrens with the Padres last year) stuck. Even with an underwhelming crop of Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects this winter, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees have multiple players selected again. Upper level bullpen arms like Joe Harvey and Raynel Espinal could interest a team enough to get a Spring Training look.
The Yankees have not made a Rule 5 Draft pick since taking Cesar Cabral and Brad Meyers in 2011. Depending on their 40-man roster situation offseason, I think the chances of the Yankees making a Rule 5 Draft pick this year are better than they have been in years. Maybe they’ll look for a live-armed last guy in the bullpen type or a corner infielder to compete with Luke Voit and Greg Bird at first base in Spring Training. Probably not, but maybe!
Friday, January 11th: Deadline for teams and players to submit salary arbitration figures The player files what he believes he should be paid in 2019 and the team files what they believe the player should be paid in 2019. It’s important to note the two sides could still agree to a contract of any size after filing salary arbitration figures. Generally speaking, most arbitration-eligible players sign before the filing deadline. The Yankees signed all their arbitration-eligibles before the filing deadline last offseason. The same will probably happen this year too. That’s usually how it goes.
Mid-January: BBWAA Hall of Fame class announced Voting results for the 2019 Hall of Fame class will be announced sometime in January. This is a big Hall of Fame year. Know why? Because Mariano Rivera is eligible. He’ll be on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this year. Rivera’s going to get voted in, of course, I just wouldn’t expect it to be unanimous. There are 400-something ballots cast each year and inevitably one of them will exclude Rivera. That’s just the way these things go.
Mo. (Al Bello/Getty)
Andy Pettitte joins the Hall of Fame ballot this year as well, though I think he’s a borderline candidate at best. He’ll clear the 5% threshold to remain on the ballot next year but I don’t see him coming close to the 75% needed for induction. Former Yankees Roger Clemens (7th year), Mike Mussina (6th), and Gary Sheffield (5th) return on the ballot. I hope Mussina gets in. His voting percentage has increased from 20.3% to 24.6% to 43.0% to 51.8% to 63.5% in his five years on the ballot. Hopefully he gets over the 75% threshold this year. Here’s the full Hall of Fame ballot.
Friday, February 1st to Wednesday, February 20th: Arbitration hearings The Yankees went to what is now a rather infamous arbitration hearing with Dellin Betances two years ago. Prior to that they hadn’t gone to an arbitration hearing since beating Chien-Ming Wang in 2008. Lots of teams these days are “file-and-trial” clubs, meaning they cut off contract talks after filing salary figures and go to a hearing. That’s designed to put pressure on the player. I don’t think the Yankees are a file-and-trial team though. They signed Aroldis Chapman and Nathan Eovaldi after the filing deadline but before a hearing in 2016. Seems Betances was a special case because the two sides were far apart. As always, I’d bet against a hearing. They’re uncommon and both sides try to avoid them.
Saturday, February 23rd: Grapefruit League play begins The Yankees open their 32-game exhibition schedule with a road game against the (groan) defending World Series champion Red Sox. They play their spring home opener two days later against the Blue Jays in Tampa. The Yankees have not yet announced their reporting dates (those are usually announced in mid-November), but, based on the last few years, pitchers and catchers will report ten days before the Grapefruit League opener (Wednesday, February 13th) and position players will report six days before the Grapefruit League opener (Sunday, February 17th).
Thursday, March 28th: Opening Day! The 2019 regular season beings on March 28th — actually, it begins March 20th in Tokyo, where the Athletics and Mariners are scheduled to play their first two games of the season — and the Yankees will be at home to take on the Orioles. The home opener was snowed out last year and twice in the last three years. I really hope that doesn’t happen again.
Fan Confidence Poll: October 29th, 2018
Source: https://bloghyped.com/the-yankees-and-the-2018-19-offseason-calendar/
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Car Insurance - Which one?
"Car Insurance - Which one?
Hi all, I am shopping around for a new car insurance company. I've been comparing quotes and it seems like either Gieco, Progressive, TheHartford. As I've never had experience w/ either of these companies, could anyone here chime in w/ their thoughts on either?
BEST ANSWER: Try this site where you can compare quotes: : http://howmuchisinsurance.xyz/index.html?src=tumblr
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I have seen some health care plans for $100 a month and up, but I can't afford that. The other plans I have seen for $50 a month, will not pay much of your bill and they all have a $2,500 deductible or much higher and a huge co-pay amount. I need something much cheaper than that, which will cover a lot more of the bill. There is no way I can pay a $2,500 deductible! I also can not afford to pay $100/ month for coverage! What does the Fed government consider cheep and affordable? Where can I get a GOOD health plan that will pay most of my bill and not have to pay an arm and a leg each month? What will the govt. do for people like me who just plain can not pay that much money for health care? When will that new law make the prices go down significantly? How can I get medicare?""
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Okay im going to be buying a new yamaha r6 in a couple of weeks. Before I bring the bike home I heard that Im going to need insurance before I bring it home. So should i start looking for an insurance now and get quotes or can i bring the bike home and then look for insurance. Im 19 years old.
The average price of car insurance for VA drivers?
I'm planning on getting my license very soon. I've been planning ahead by saving up car money and figuring out what type of car I want. However, my dad often mentions how insurance is gonna bite you in the ***. so I would like to know what the average price of car insurance is for young or new Virginia drivers. please and thank you. (I've heard rumors that sometimes it helps if you have a beige or gray car. true?)""
Volvo S40 insurance cost?
I'm going to lease a new car soon and I had my heart set on a 2008 Volkswagen Jetta SE ($21,040), but yesterday I found an really good deal on a 2007 Volvo S40 ($20,800). It's never been sold so it's technically new (it was a dealer demo). I'm just wondering if the insurance on this car would be similar to that of the Jetta. It's the base model 2.4i with no options except the automatic transmission. Do you know if if the Volvo would be more costly to insure?""
How much would car insurance cost for a 16 year old?
I'm 15, and I am thinking about paying for my own car insurance next year to help my parents out. I was wondering how much it would cost per month given the facts that I am a guy, and I was thinking about buying a used 2005 or 2007 Mustang for my first car. How much would is cost per month for my circumstances?""
Cheapest car insurance in san antonio?
Cheapest car insurance in san antonio?
Is a mazda 3 a sports car too a insurance company ?
will a insurance company consider a simple mazda 3 a sports car ? like not a mazda 3 speed , just a normal mazda 3 sedan 4 door""
Best insurance for a teen boy whos 18?
i need to know whats the best insurance company for a guy whos 18 and doesnt have alot of money to go blow on a big place i have a 96 jeep cherekee sport anybody got any ideas thanks
Do i need car insurance in my name?
My brother and me are sharing a car, I just got my license and my mom says i dont need to worry because the insurance covers the car not the driver, i live in texas, is this true?""
Whats a basic cheap Car Insurance for a 18 year old?
Hi I am 18 I live in New York and have had my lisense for about 6 months now and my insurance is pretty expensive like 1200 for HALF A YEAR which is crazy so I was wondering if anyone know of a cheap insurance company for basic insurance thats maybe 1200 for a whole year or cheaper. I also drive a 1994 Saab 900 S Hatchback 2 door
Can I cancel my scooter insurance? Will I still have to pay?
So I dont really use my Vespa any more, I'm paying 380 a year and about 30 pound a months in instalments, if I cancel my insurance will I have to continue to pay the instalments?""
What if I can't afford health insurance? How is that Affordable Health Care ?
What if I can't afford health insurance? How is that Affordable Health Care ?
""Looking for a cheap new car (2010-2013) with good fuel economy yet sporty and cheap to insure, any ideas?""
I'm a 19 year old male so insurance pretty much sucks. I'm looking for either a new or used car that is cheap both to buy and insure, but is also sporty and fun to drive, and good on gas. Anybody have any ideas?""
Health insurance for 1099?
I am forming a corporation that will bring on several 1099 contractors as consultants, almost like a consortium of consultants. I'd like to offer them group health insurance. is this possible given that they are all 1099 contractors?""
Registering and insuring a salvaged car?
just bought a car with a salvaged title with full knowledge of such thinking i'll save some money. the car runs fine, everything functions as any other car and if the title ...show more""
Approximately how much would car insurance cost per month?
This is for my mom, I'm in high school and it would be more convenient if she could drive me to school. She's 53 and she's failed more than 5 driving tests before for small mistakes (this was about 5-7 years ago). She's planning on just getting a basic car that works, nothing fancy at all. And the cheapest car insurance. I know I won't get an exact price but can I at least get an idea? thank you.""
Who is California Insurance Comany?
MY BOSS WAS IN AN ACCIDENT RECENTLY, WHEN THE INFORMATION WAS EXCHANGED, THE OTHER PARTY WROTE DOWN CALIFORNIA AUTO INSURANCE COMPANY AND A POLICY #, NO PHONE NUMBER, HER NAME, MAKE OF VEHICLE, MODEL AND VIN#. HOW CAN I FIND OUT THE PHONE NUMBER WITH THIS INFO. ONLY?""
Car insurance question?
Hello yes I currently acquired a car from my aunt its a Mazda protege 4dr year 2000 I am wondering if there is any way to get a cheap insurance I am sadly tho only 19 with a G2 i know the likeliness is very unlikely but any help is appreciated and as putting it under my parents apparently both of them are already first drivers for the car and van we already own but is it possible for some one to be first drivers for second car? well anyways any help is greatly appreciated.
How much does liability insurance cost for a night club business?
I'm trying to get a night club business started and i need insurance how much does it normally cost? and what kind do you recommend getting?
Car insurance questions?
Can you buy a car and not have to pay for car insurance? If you must have car insurance, can you use your parent's, like a family plan?""
What kind of insurance do used car dealerships have and how much does it cost?
I looking to start up a small used car dealership. What type of insurance do I need and what would it cost me Im only looking to open a small lot with about 5-8 cars at a time thanks
Two cars? Insurance?
>In high school >Both parents getting new cars soon >old cars: 1 is decent, 1 is cheap >I get old car >I want to convince parents to let me keep cheap one as well, so I can modify it and stuff BUT, I just realized I'll have to pay extra insurance just to drive it around every now and then. What to do? How much does average insurance usually cost? (Not minimum PIP)""
Car Insurance - Which one?
Hi all, I am shopping around for a new car insurance company. I've been comparing quotes and it seems like either Gieco, Progressive, TheHartford. As I've never had experience w/ either of these companies, could anyone here chime in w/ their thoughts on either?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cant-afford-pay-life-insurance-liberty-mutual-patrick-rice/"
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Cage Match: Mitch Marner vs Dylan Larkin
A dilemma in fantasy is whether it’s better to own a player producing well despite not having a strong supporting cast, or one doing so while playing alongside (and perhaps being partially propped up by) other fantasy stars. Today’s battle tackles this head-on, matching Dylan Larkin, who’s starring for the less talented Red Wings, against Mitch Marner, who’s putting up great numbers for a very deep Leafs squad. Who’s the better own at present and down the road? Let’s find out – Cage Match starts now!
Career Path and Contract Status
Larkin, 21, was selected 15th overall in 2014, then starred in one year of college hockey (47 points in only 35 games) and at the 2015 WJC (seven points in five games). Even still, many were surprised to see him stick with the Wings for 2015-16. And the surprises kept coming, as he emerged with 30 points in his first 44 NHL games, only to slump to 15 in his final 36 contests and then, even worse, to just 32 points in 80 games as a sophomore. But he righted his fantasy ship big time for 2017-18, nearly equaling the combined output from his first two seasons (63 points, versus 75) despite the Wings only managing 212 goals, fourth worst among NHL teams.
Marner, 20, was grabbed with the 4th overall pick in 2015 and, like Larkin, was an NHL regular only a year later, except in Marner’s case that came after he posted 116 points in 57 OHL games (third in league scoring). As an NHL rookie, Marner tallied 61 points, emerging with 32 in his first 39 games but hitting a wall with only 13 in his final 21 contests. This season saw Marner post nearly point-per-game second half numbers (39 points in 40 games) and have a strong playoff, igniting hopes he’ll soon be able to put things together for a full season.
Larkin’s ELC just expired, leaving him an RFA this summer, while Marner still has one season on his ELC. Therefore, Marner will likely count well less ($0.894M) against the cap for 2018-19 than Larkin but may end up being more costly in 2019-20 once he inks his own first RFA deal.
Ice Time
Season
Total Ice Time per game
(rank among team’s forwards)
PP Ice Time per game
(rank among team’s forwards)
SH Ice Time per game
(rank among team’s forwards)
2017-18
19:50 (D.L.) – 1st
16:23 (M.M.) – 6th
2:09 (D.L.) – 6th (tied)
2:11 (M.M.) – 2nd (tied)
1:59 (D.L.) – 4th
0:02 (M.M.) – 8th
2016-17
16:09 (D.L.) – 6th
16:48 (M.M.) – 3rd
1:52 (D.L.) – 8th
2:22 (M.M.) – 3rd (tied)
0:20 (D.L.) – 9th
0:07 (M.M.) – 9th
2015-16
16:32 (D.L.) – 3rd
2:02 (D.L.) – 7th
0:06 (D.L.) – 9th
What jumps out for both players – in a negative way – is their low 2017-18 PP Time, which was nearly even despite Marner ranking second among his team’s forwards versus Larkin’s sixth. The explanation lies in theirs being teams that don’t have a PP1 unit which gets the lion’s share of PP ice time. Instead, the gap between the #1 forward and #7 forward in PP Time on both teams is less than 30 seconds (24 in Toronto, 28 in Detroit). While this means unless things change (which is unlikely given coaching styles) neither are in danger of seeing his PP Time dry up, they also won’t stand to benefit on the PP in ways other top scorers do, and as such it could put a realistic ceiling on their scoring.
Also, while Larkin’s 2017-18 average overall ice time was 3:27 above Marner’s, more than half of that came in the form of newfound (and non-productive) SH duty. So although some credit should, of course, be given to Larkin perhaps organically becoming a better player due to age and experience, upon seeing his numbers I wonder if his 63 points from 2017-18 was an unsustainable overachievement – particularly for the goal-challenged Wings – rather than a stepping stone to even better output.
When looking at Marner, however, we can’t assume he’ll only get better due to how low his average per game Ice Time was, since Toronto divvies out overall Ice Time like it does PP Time – very evenly. In fact, Toronto had an astonishing ten forwards play 60+ games while averaging 14:53+ of Ice Time per game, with only one forward averaging more than 17:21 per game (Auston Matthews – 18:07). To put that in perspective, only eight other teams had ten 60+ game forwards each average even 12:00+ per game overall, and the next highest total for the tenth ranking 60+ game forward on any team was 13:11, which, it turns out, was Detroit. Still, only five other teams (Vegas, Minnesota, Nashville, Rangers, Ottawa) had their top 60+ game forward average below 19:00 per game overall, and in each case, it was well more than Matthews’ 18:07.
In terms of my patented past player comparisons, since 2000-01 Marner is the only player to score 60+ points in separate seasons by age 20 despite playing under 1400 total minutes each season. And the six who even managed to do so even once by age 20 represent a who’s who of past (Marion Gaborik), present (Sidney Crosby), and future (Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, David Pastrnak, William Nylander) stars. As for Larkin, his 2017-18 stat line puts him in limited – but also promising – territory, as since 2000-01 only two other under age 23 forwards scored 63+ points while averaging less than 20 minutes per game and tallying ten or fewer PPPts: Jamie Benn in 2011-12 and Gabriel Landeskog in 2013-14. As usual, these comparisons are food for thought and not predictive data.
Secondary Categories
Season
PIMs
(per game)
Hits
(per game)
Blocked Shots (per game)
Shots
(per game)
PP Points
(per game)
2017-18
0.74 (D.L.)
0.31 (M.M.)
0.92 (D.L.)
0.38 (M.M.)
0.51 (D.L.)
0.30 (M.M.)
2.83 (D.L.)
2.36 (M.M.)
0.09 (D.L.)
0.33 (M.M.)
2016-17
0.47 (D.L.)
0.49 (M.M.)
0.81 (D.L.)
0.53 (M.M.)
0.25 (D.L.)
0.50 (M.M.)
2.24 (D.L.)
2.28 (M.M.)
0.08 (D.L.)
0.27 (M.M.)
2015-16
0.42 (D.L.)
0.81 (D.L.)
0.31 (D.L.)
2.76 (D.L.)
0.06 (D.L.)
These are encouraging numbers for both. In the case of Larkin, with two other seasons of data now in the books, his 2016-17 looks more like an aberration. Where concern lies, however, is in the fact that he’s yet to average – in any season – even one PPPt per ten games. While to some extent that can be blamed on him playing for a team without a lot of firepower and being relegated to PP2, if Larkin is to be an elite player he has to find a way to produce well despite less than ideal circumstances, so as to elevate his numbers and/or get himself a better PP role. Then again, Larkin’s lack of PP production leaves more room for organic points increases if/when he can produce more with the man advantage.
As for Marner, we see small year-over-year gains in SOG and PPP, which are good signs, particularly at his age and with all the other firepower Toronto has. Here too there’s concern in terms of PPPts, except for the opposite reason as Larkin. Among the 16 forwards who had more PPPts than Marner in 2017-18, only one (Taylor Hall) averaged under 3:00 per game, and Hall’s 2:54 per game was 25% above Marner’s average. Even still, Marner has put up excellent PPPt numbers for two straight seasons despite low PP Time per game in each, which goes a long way toward validating this production. What it doesn’t do, though, is guarantee he’d do even better with more PP Time, although that might be a red herring since, as noted above, chances are slim he’d receive more PP Time given the coach he plays for.
An area of concern that cannot be as easily disregarded, however, is although since 2013-14 there’ve been 103 instances of forwards scoring 70+ points, none of the 103 had either less overall or less PP Ice Time than Marner in 2017-18. In fact when looking at the last five seasons only one player (Patrick Laine this season) even managed 70 points (in his case, exactly 70) despite receiving less than 17:00 per game of Ice Time. It’s a reminder that talent can only get one so far in terms of production.
But at the same time, it’s not ground in stone that Marner is incapable of seeing gains in ice time. In other words, it’s better to perhaps have an ice time ceiling that might limit one’s scoring than getting the ice time and not producing, since even though coach Mike Babcock likely won’t greatly rethink his ice time philosophy, Marner’s stellar play could force the issue and earn himself more ice time if not in 2018-19 then in future campaigns. And let’s also not forget that he’ll only be 21 years old when next season starts, so there’s time for him to organically improve as a player as well.
Luck-Based Metrics
Season
Personal Shooting %
Team Shooting % (5×5)
Individual Points % (IPP)
Offensive Zone Starting % (5×5)
Average Shot Distance
Secondary Assists %
2017-18
6.9% (D.L.)
11.3% (M.M.)
8.63% (D.L.)
8.48% (M.M.)
73.3% (D.L.)
75.8% (M.M.)
46.9% (D.L.)
54.2% (M.M.)
32.5 (D.L.)
31.0 (M.M.)
47% (D.L.)
42% (M.M.)
2016-17
9.0% (D.L.)
10.8% (M.M.)
6.42% (D.L.)
10.13% (M.M.)
64.6% (D.L.)
71.8% (M.M.)
51.5% (D.L.)
55.6% (M.M.)
30.3 (D.L.)
27.8 (M.M.)
53% (D.L.)
43% (M.M.)
2015-16
10.4% (D.L.)
8.72% (D.L.)
63.4% (D.L.)
60.6% (D.L.)
29.3 (D.L.)
27% (D.L.)
Once again this data from this season – both by itself and juxtaposed with 2015-16 – serves to underscore that Larkin’s dismal 2016-17 was likely an aberration, which we see was brought on largely by an unsustainably low team shooting percentage. What’s more, Larkin’s scoring gains in 2017-18 came despite a much lower OZ% than his two prior seasons, and a likewise lower team shooting percentage. Moreover, Larkin’s growing season-by-season IPP shows he’s improving as a player in a way that seems more organic and thus at least sustainable if not capable of further improvement. Even still, there’s likely only so much he can do on a poor scoring team, so although his trajectory suggests 70+ points is within reach if not in 2018-19 then soon, it’d be an added challenge to see that happen on Detroit. Of course, we could’ve said much the same things about Nathan MacKinnon last season, and we all know what happened there (and at the same age Larkin will be in 2018-19).
The data is similarly encouraging for Marner, whose IPP – already over the important 70% threshold as a rookie – rose even further in his second season, all despite playing with talented linemates on a very deep Toronto team. And his points increase came despite a lower OZ% and a decrease in secondary assists percentage. This leaves little doubt that Marner’s 69 points were for real, and that there’s room for organic scoring gains, although as noted above there might be other factors standing in the way of those occurring.
Who Wins?
There’s a lot to like about both players. But both come with caveats due to their teams/situation, and that has to be taken into account. In the end, Marner gets the narrow win because although his PP scoring seems unsustainable in view of his PP Time, he’s put up elite man advantage numbers for two seasons, which goes a long way towards proving legitimacy. Couple that with what he’s done in limited ice time and he has to get the nod.
That all having been said, Larkin doesn’t so much lose this match as fall just short of winning. In his case, he’s shown his 2016-17 was a clear aberration and scored well this season despite a poor PP output and being on a low scoring team. But his three straight seasons of subpar PP output is bordering on a trend, and can’t be ignored, nor can the likelihood that Detroit’s offense continues to struggle for at least the next few seasons.
I see Marner as a hold if you own him, but not a player to acquire if you don’t, since chances are just as good that he finishes with 65-70 points again in 2018-19 as they are he improves to 70-75; yet to acquire him, you’d have to pay a price that would factor in a scoring uptick I just don’t see coming. With Larkin, the pessimism surrounding Detroit and the fact that his 63 points were fairly quiet in terms of the fantasy ripple effects, might result in him being obtainable for a reasonable price, so don’t be afraid to kick the tires on him, as a jump to 65+ points is more likely than a drop to 60 or below.
Note also that although I gave Marner the narrow win, in certain one-year points leagues the guy to draft might just be Larkin. That’s because PPPts don’t factor in, plus Marner’s added “name” value due to playing for the Leafs and being a young phenom on the rise, versus Larkin still giving poolies lingering doubts due to his 2016-17 output, might make Larkin a better cost vs. value bargain.
from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/cage-match-mitch-marner-vs-dylan-larkin/
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