#but there are...so many issues with his beliefs underlying that and that are strongly implied

[handweavers]

[ actually scratch that im going to rant about this bc ive read this book so many times and i have so many thoughts on it and nowhere to put them now that i don't primarily study history for a living and i accidentally wrote what is basically an informal essay about this. ]

my main gripe with guns germs and steel is that the author is an old white xtian man of the more classical anthropological stream of thinking and used outdated and inappropriate language when making his antiracist points, ex. "blacks" instead of "black people" which is difficult to swallow especially because he's doing that while trying to dismantle white supremacist ideology (like pick one, are you actively anti-racist or not? this came out in 2011 man you should know better. you can't talk about the horrors of the trans atlantic slave trade whilst simultaneously calling them that), and despite dismantling one major aspect of white supremacist pseudoscience he doesn't dismantle the entire 'root' so to speak. he refutes a major branch of it but not the inherent issues with this type of thinking, doesn't even acknowledge it fully, and that lessens the impact of his argument.

this book isn't a complete refutation of white racial pseudo-science, he doesn't really take apart other fundamental parts of that entire structure, he focuses solely on how geography impacts human societies and their development (which i don't necessarily fault him for, as geography is his primary expertise), but part of that idea needs inherently dismantling just at its base because the concept of "development" is highly racialized and contentious. he doesn't really acknowledge this, and seems to support this idea and even talks a bit about being friends with some mormon missionaries with whom he went to papua new guinea in the 60s and doesn't condemn that nor acknowledge how fucked up and weird that is, indicating that while he claims to be anti-racist there is a lot more work left that he has to do.

he subscribes to the idea that there are societies that are 'primitive' and those that are 'more advanced' - the theory of technological advancement as something both inevitable and inherent and a progressive climb upward, something traditionally taught to students of social sciences but is taught far less these days because it isn't correct and it's highly eurocentric. it isn't a matter of who is more 'advanced' or who has 'progressed' further (what is progression? what is advancement? who decides what this means? which societies are heralded as advanced, and assign a positive value to that, and primitive, and assign a negative value to that?) but rather that different societies have different values.

there is nothing evolutionarily 'lesser' about hunter gatherer or iron age or stone age societies. they don't represent a natural progression of human technological capacity, they represent changing values and needs. all societies value and conceptualize technology differently, and there is no positive or negative value to these concepts. ex. hunter gatherer nomadic peoples of the amazon are not "primitive" and "less advanced" they simply have different values than we do. the author suggests that anyone who CAN "progress" WILL choose to do so, and there would have to be reasons "preventing" them from doing so, despite acknowledging that different cultures have different values and have "gained" new tech and understood their intended use and CHOSE to simply discard it because it has no value for them within their society (ex. several indigenous peoples of papua new guinea) and never directly makes a statement on this ideology, just kind of eventually implies "i dunno the answer to this one i just know that they aren't inherently inferior to me" but there is a big difference between "INHERENTLY INFERIOR" and "INFERIOR" because you can believe that someone isn't Inherently lesser than you, from birth, tabula rasa "blank slate" style, but still believe that they are lesser than you as a result of things that they have chosen after that - as a result of their culture, and unfortunately while jared diamond declares that nonwhite people are not inherently inferior to white people, he does strongly indicate that he believes many of us are culturally inferior. he tries to make this into a valueless judgement, that there is nothing wrong with being "primitive" or "less advanced" it is just a fact, but there is no such thing as a valueless judgement when it comes to western anthropological thought, it is constructed from the base up to be about hierarchies and white supremacy.

there is no way to talk about "progress" "development" "civilization" without it being racially loaded, and he doesn't acknowledge this at all, which lessens the degree of his thesis' impact. you have to at least address these things in a book like this, you can't Not address these things, and you also need people of colour to go over your book pre-publishing so your elderly white ass doesn't release a book trying to refute racism while you simultaneously refer to people of colour with inappropriate language.

[theculturedmarxist]

In the last few decades, the political systems of advanced democracies have witnessed momentous changes. Nationalism and populism have gained support almost everywhere, often at the expense of mainstream parties. New dimensions of conflict have emerged – over immigration, globalisation, and civil rights – in place of the classical divide over redistribution (see Figure 1).

Some of these phenomena are correlated with economic changes. The areas of the US that are more exposed to import competition have lost manufacturing jobs and have become politically more polarised and conservative (Autor et al. 2017), and trade shocks or technology shocks account for employment losses and for the rise of populism and anti-immigration sentiment in Europe (Colantone and Stanig 2018a, 2018b, Anelli et al. 2018). Cultural conservatism and support for populist parties have been shown to be strongly correlated with economic insecurity (Guiso et al. 2017, Gidron and Hall 2017). However, the mechanisms behind these correlations are not clear. Why do losers from free trade become nationalist, dislike immigrants, and turn socially conservative? Why do they vote for policy platforms that seem to run counter to some of their interests, such as tax cuts or unsustainable budget deficits?

In a recent paper (Gennaioli and Tabellini 2018), we argue that to address these questions we need to engage with the psychology of group identity and its effect on voter beliefs. The idea that group identity and group-tainted beliefs play a key role in political change permeates the writings of social scientists and revolutionaries. According to Marx and Engels, individual workers should identify with the proletariat, viewing themselves as part of a historical class struggle rather than as carriers of specific cultural or regional traits. For nationalists like Mazzini or Herder, individuals should view themselves as part of the culture or history of an imaginary national community, downplaying more parochial differences. Lipset and Rokkan (1960) describe the evolution of Western party systems as reflecting shifting identities across salient groups such as income classes, religious versus secular groups, the centre versus the periphery, and so on. Changes in the groups of identification can explain why large economic changes can drastically change voters’ beliefs and cause them to become distorted in specific directions. It also helps explain why society becomes strongly polarised across groups, in an ‘us versus them’ conflict.

Social Identities and Distorted Beliefs

Social psychology confirms the link between identity and beliefs. According to the ‘social identity perspective’, the leading theory of groups, individuals routinely identify with social groups of similar people (Tajfel and Turner 1979, Turner et al. 1987) as a way to structure and simplify the social world. Acquiring a social identity, however, also entails an element of ‘depersonalisation’. When an individual identifies with a social group, he enhances differences between outgroups and in-groups. As a result, he stereotypes outgroups but, crucially, he also stereotypes himself by viewing himself more as a typical member of his group than as a unique personality. This implies that identification with a certain group causes voters to move their beliefs in the direction of stereotypes, increasing polarisation and conflict.

To give a political example, the stereotypical ‘cosmopolitan’ favours no controls on immigration and full European integration. Even though such an extreme position is infrequent, it sharply distinguishes the group of those who favour a more open society from the group of those who favour a less open society, say the nationalist group. When someone (say, a member of the European educated elites) identifies himself with the cosmopolitan group, he comes to view himself in contrast to a nationalist. As a result, he perceives nationalists as being more closed than they actually are, and also moves his own beliefs further in the direction of the stereotypical cosmopolitan position. Of course, the same happens when someone holding more closed views identifies with ‘nationalists’ – he thinks of himself as being in contrast to the cosmopolitans, moving his beliefs toward the stereotypical position of his group. As a consequence of this process, these voters hold certain positions not just because of the material benefits they entail, but also because of how they identify their social self.

The distortion of beliefs along group lines has been amply documented by political scientists (Flynn et al. 2017). Recent work shows that belief distortions are systematically shaped by partisanship. US voters exaggerate social mobility, but more so if they identify themselves as right-wing (Alesina et al. 2018a). Voters in the US and Europe overestimate the number of immigrants, but right-wing voters much more than those on the left (Alesina et al. 2018b). Beliefs over global warming also display large partisan differences (Kahan 2014). In our approach, distortions in factual and value judgements naturally arise due to group psychology.

To see the political consequences of this phenomenon, consider the 20th century divide of Western politics: class or economic conflict. Here, a lower-middle-class voter identifying with the working class exaggerates the benefit he draws from redistributive policies because, in thinking about the world, he focuses on the distinguishing feature of his group in contrast to the opposite group – namely, poverty or low upward mobility. The reverse happens for an upper-middle-class voter identifying with a group of rich capitalists. Beliefs about social mobility and policy evaluations become polarised, and redistributive conflict is enhanced relative to a world in which identity does not matter. The same mechanism also explains why polarisation is perceived to be greater than it actually is, in line with the evidence in Westfall et al. (2015).

Changing Social Identities

But psychology also explains why prevailing social identities may change, so that economic conflict may give room to new cleavages. Indeed, we can all potentially identify with many social groups, defined by our nation, our gender, our social class, our occupation, our cultural traits, and so on. Critically, our political beliefs are shaped by whichever identity is salient at a certain point in time, and this depends on external circumstances.

In our paper we explore the implications of this insight. We show that economic change causes new sources of conflict to become salient, in turn causing identification to change. This creates polarisation along new dimensions, while reducing it along other dimensions. For instance, a trend in globalisation clusters individual interests along exposure to foreign competition or immigration relative to, say, the traditional rich-poor divide. As a result, social identities switch from a poor versus rich conflict to a conflict between globalists and nationalists. Poor or uneducated voters exposed to the costs of immigration or globalisation de-identify with their economic class and identify with the nationalist group. This reduces their demand for redistribution and enhances their demand of external protection. These voters may benefit from greater redistribution, but they do not demand it because they now identify with a group that is more heterogeneous across income classes. Likewise, rich or educated voters benefitting from immigration or globalisation also change their identification to the cosmopolitan group. Their demand for redistribution increases and their demand for openness increases. Overall, social alliances change, individual beliefs about redistribution become less polarised, while beliefs over trade protection or immigration become more polarised. Political conflict over redistribution dampens; conflict over globalisation intensifies.

In other words, through stereotypes and belief distortions, endogenous social identities amplify certain shocks, leading to non-conventional policy responses. A shock induced by trade, or technology, or immigration can have much stronger political consequences if it changes the dimension of social identification. Critically, by inducing people to abandon class identity, these shocks can reduce the demand for redistribution despite increasing income inequality.

Amplification is further enhanced if individual traits and policy preferences are correlated across policy dimensions. Specifically, there is evidence that demand for trade protection and aversion to immigrants are positively correlated across individuals, while these traits are not much correlated with attitudes towards redistribution. This may be an effect of education, or it may be due to an underlying personality or cultural trait that varies across voters. In our theory, this correlation pattern has the following implications. When voters identify with their income class, conflict is predominantly about redistribution. Voters’ beliefs over immigration or trade policy do not polarise politics because income classes – the politically relevant identities – encompass diverse views over globalisation. But now suppose that increased import exposure redefines social identities along a new dimension associated with trade exposure (say, region of residence or occupation). Because views over trade policy are correlated with views over immigration and civil rights, this redefinition of social identities leads to correlated belief distortions over a bundle of policies. This can explain why workers exposed to import competition become anti-immigrant and demand socially conservative policies, and more generally why opinions over different policy issues are now more systematically correlated with partisan identities.

Some Evidence

The evidence supports these predictions. In a recent paper, Autor et al. (2013) show that US commuter zones that are more exposed to the rise of imports from China have become politically more polarised and conservative, and were more likely to vote for Donald Trump in the last presidential election. This could reflect a variety of mechanisms, but survey data allow us to explore more specific effects of trade shocks. Exploiting data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study between 2006 and 2016, we find that individuals more exposed to rising imports from China become more willing to accept cuts in domestic public spending, more averse to immigrants, and consider the issue of abortion to be more important. This is consistent with the idea that the trade shock induced relatively poor respondents to abandon class-based identification and switch to nationalism, given that nationalism is positively correlated with social conservatism. Colantone and Stanig (2018) find similar evidence of the effects of imports shocks in Europe.

France is another interesting case study, because there was a clear shift in the dimensions of political conflicts between 2012 and 2017. This is illustrated vividly in Figure 2. The vertical axis measures attitudes towards immigration, globalisation, and European integration (higher values correspond to more open attitudes); the horizontal axis attitudes towards redistribution and the role of government in protecting workers and regulating the economy (higher values correspond to more right-wing attitudes). Each dot corresponds to an individual. The colours indicate how respondents were split between two clusters estimated from the original questions: in 2013 on the left-hand panel, in 2017 on the right-hand panel. The change in the dimension of political conflict is striking. In 2013 respondents were split between left and right, reflecting the traditional dimension of economic conflict over the role of the state in the domestic economy. In 2017, the cleavage concerned attitudes towards globalisation and immigration.

Figure 2 Changing political conflict in France

In our paper we show that this change in the relevant dimension of political conflict is reflected in how people voted and, exploiting panel data, in how their policy preferences changed. Voters who, between 2012 and 2017, abandoned a left versus right identification in favour of a nationalist versus globalist identity moderated their views on redistribution, and became more extreme in their views on globalisation and immigration.

Concluding Remarks

Trade and technology shocks are not the only source of political frictions in modern democracies. Socially conservative cultural views, which were once majoritarian, have gradually been eroded by slow-moving social changes, such as the diffusion of college education and changing gender roles. These cumulative changes created fault lines within traditional political groups defined on the left versus right dimension. Trade and technology shocks increased the relevance of these fault lines, and triggered changes in political and social identities. Socially conservative poor voters, who traditionally identified with left-wing groups despite their social conservatism, are now attracted by nationalism because it appeals to both their trade preferences and their cultural views, and vice versa for voters with opposite political features. As this happens, traditional income- or class-based conflict wanes and is replaced by new political cleavages over correlated dimensions. Political beliefs reflect these new social identities and amplify the effect of these social and economic changes.

If this view of the world is correct, the disruptive political changes that we observe in many democracies are not transitory phenomena, but represent profound and long-lasting transformations of our political systems. One important question in this respect concerns the role of the media. If exposure to social media, such as Facebook or Twitter, strengthens stereotypical thinking, it may cause the consequences of these new political and social identifications to become extreme. At the same time, identities are not biologically ingrained. Because individuals belong to several different groups at the same time, less-polarising identities are always available. As argued by Sen (2007), political platforms reminding people of these alternative identities may reduce polarisation and favour the establishment of a less conflictual political life.

[maiji]

On writing Hokushin 

(unrelated: WOW I just realized I can do headings in tumblr! WOw!!!)

I’m on a roll avoiding other work I should be doing lolll! Lately I’ve been super fortunate to have some great conversations with multiple lovely people about characterization of Hokushin. To probably no one’s surprise, I already think an embarrassingly lot about this and try to convey it in my fanworks, but I actually haven’t really sat down and articulated in depth. Shocking, I know. So here are some cleaned up/slightly more coherently organized version of thoughts!

Below the cut I basically ramble for a long time about understanding Hokushin's character with cultural/historical background and his relationship with Yusuke (and by extension Raizen). And some misc other stuff. I tried to break it out by topic, but a lot of it overlaps. One thing I don't really get into here is specific aspects of Mahayana (Zen) Buddhism, but it has an important underlying relationship with a lot of what l talk about below, and forms a significant part of Raizen and therefore Hokushin's narrative, how their characters are portrayed and framed, aaaand this is already really long. 

With all that in mind, this is one person’s interpretation! I’m no expert, I mostly just read a lot of stuff when I get obsessed with it (usually for storytelling/comics research, and then forget everything soon after lol). In any case, it'd be boring if my ideas on Hokushin were the only ones that exist, and the point of fanworks is to create for personal enjoyment/fulfillment, so please make of it what you will! All I hope is that this was at least somewhat interesting/informative and helps give people more material and more love for Hokushin =D

The loyal retainer archetype

Hokushin's character is very strongly tied to the perceived classic Japanese archetype of the loyal servant/retainer and samurai (bushi/warrior class) ideals. They come with a very distinct paradigm and set of principles. Here’s a simplified summary. 

Purpose, honour and thereby happiness comes from selfless loyalty and servitude. The fulfillment of your existence is to serve the will of your master. 

The ideal/collective whole is prioritized above an (your) individual existence. There is a greater goal that you are merely one small aspect of, and you may not even expect to understand it.

Death is not necessarily perceived as a worst-case scenario, and can be viewed as the most honourable alternative to violating your own or someone else's principles, particularly that of your master. And in some cases, it may even not be an alternative. Death is not an end, but a means to an end usually to support the beliefs held in the previous two points.

We can reference the 8 virtues of bushido - the way of the warrior, sometimes called the samurai code. Now, bear in mind nobody necessarily went around going “I’m a samurai, and this is the code I follow.” This is a list formalized in the late 19th century by writer Nitobe Inazo to explain a concept of bushido and Japanese culture for a Western audience, and then it basically got absorbed back into Japan. Thus, bushido is a pretty heavily romanticized thing, and... anyway that’s beyond the scope of this post lol. The virtues are:

Righteousness (also rendered rectitude, justice)

Courage

Benevolence/mercy

Politeness

Honesty/sincerity

Honour

Duty/Loyalty

Character/self-control

BASICALLY A HOKUSHIN RECIPE, AMIRITE?? There are also particular aesthetic sensibilities to the execution of this archetype partly based on how Japanese history and culture evolved. Bearing and sensitivity matters, more is said in what is not said, there’s stoicism and elegance and refinement and poetry etc. Mono no aware and transience of life and all that stuff.

Essentially, even if such a character disagrees fundamentally with their master's reasoning, it's not unusual for a "true" servant to still abandon their family or their lovers and follow or even precede their master to death in order to uphold their master’s principles. 

In the series, Hokushin says that he doesn't understand the king's reasons for his self-imposed abstinence, but that he still supports the king’s will. Later in the arc, he demonstrates the truth of his statement when he obviously doesn't agree with Yusuke's outrageous tactics regarding the future of their kingdom and the entire Demon World, but upholds it regardless. (As I noted in One and a Half Revolutions, the most "disobedient” Hokushin gets is when he plots strategy with the other monks for what they should do if they end up fighting each other during the tournament, and Yusuke is like YO KNOCK IT OFF NO THROWING FIGHTS. AND ESPECIALLY NOT TO MAKE ME EMPEROR. And Hokushin’s like, well you said you’re not our king anymore, so we don’t have to follow you and can do as we wish. And what we wish to do is make you Emperor. So what’s your issue. And Yusuke is like THAT’S NOT WHAT I MEANT)

This archetype is also NOTORIOUS for assuming a huge burden of responsibility and/or shame on behalf of their master, often in secret, for maximum service/honour value (and narrative/dramatic impact). The legendary Ako incident (the 47 ronin) is a famous historical example.

This intense commitment can be tricky to depict because you have to finely balance outward stoicism and emotional resonance, and you also want to temper things to make a character more nuanced and not just a flat stereotype - e.g., a "you say jump, I jump" personality or have readers going "omg why is this character so spineless/stupid", ridiculous levels of melodrama, etc. You still want people to be able to empathize with the character and to really feel for them when they make decisions that may otherwise seem extreme or incomprehensible. (Although in many ways there's an Eastern/Western philosophical difference in the perception and understanding of this. A simple modern example that comes to mind is in Pacific Rim, when Raleigh asks Mako why she's so obedient to Pentecost and she replies (paraphrased from memory), "It's not obedience. It's respect.")

The Hokushin decision-making flowchart

I use this very rough mental outline as a general guide if I’m struggling to decide whether or not Hokushin would do something significant. Bearing in mind interesting opportunities are usually not black and white, so “yes” and “no” below are usually more like, “yeah pretty much...” or “no, kinda not...” lol

Is it in accordance with his values? * If yes: go for it. * If no:

Is it in accordance with the will/principles of his master (Raizen, Yusuke, or whomever he’s committed to serve)? * If yes, go for it. * If no:

Does it ultimately aid the endgoals/ideals of his master? * If no: forget it. * If yes:

Can any negative consequences be minimized to affecting Hokushin only or mostly (e.g., punishment or humiliation or capture or whatever) with little to no long-term effects for his master? * If yes: DO IT!!! * If no: FIGURE SOMETHING OUT TO MAKE THIS ANSWER YES!!!!  

Situations of deceit must be handled carefully, especially as honour is a major element of this archetype. The above flowchart can sometimes help... That said, deceit can be particularly challenging to contrive within the master and servant relationship. While we don't see Raizen and Hokushin directly interacting in the series, there's extremely strong implied trust between them. We can see this from how they speak of each other to other characters, namely Yusuke. We can also extrapolate aspects of their relationship from how Yusuke and Hokushin interact, because it's repeatedly emphasized that Yusuke and Raizen are quite similar fundamentally, and Hokushin clearly assumes Yusuke will succeed Raizen.

Yusuke and Hokushin: the initial meeting

In their first meeting, Yusuke’s absolutely furious at being misled by Hokushin. The beautiful thing about the setup of this deceit is how it:

Allows us to see the values and personalities of both characters.

Enables Yusuke and Hokushin to evaluate each other.

Establishes and enhances the dynamics of their relationship.

The above lies in Yusuke’s reaction to a particular piece of information being withheld, and how Hokushin handles the situation after being called out. Remember:

Lying is generally not in line with the loyal retainer/Hokushin’s values.

Honesty and straightforwardness are also big for Yusuke.

With point 1, Hokushin deceives not by lying but by leaving out significant information: that he - and potentially by implication, some % of Raizen’s followers - still eats humans so that they don’t get weak and die. His rationale for doing so is that Yusuke, being formerly human and having lots of people close to him who are human, would have a hard time getting past that fact if he learned this on their first meeting, and would not be willing to follow them to the Demon World. Totally reasonable assumption. If Yusuke doesn’t know, he’s more likely to be receptive to joining their kingdom, which protects the interests of his king and the safety of his people. This passes our flowchart with flying colours. (I elaborate on this a bit more in A Song on All Sides.)

However, when Yusuke figures out what happened, point 2 makes this especially problematic for their relationship. We know Yusuke is all about gut feelings and first impressions, so this could’ve been an awful miscalculation on Hokushin’s part.

When I’ve talked about this scene in the past, I usually focus on how in the next few moments Hokushin’s actions allow him to pass Yusuke’s assessment of whether or not he’s trustworthy. But what’s especially great about it is that judgement is actually going both ways. Before Yusuke explains his position, Hokushin’s politeness is his professional courtesy - he’s doing his duty as Raizen’s retainer. As Yusuke speaks in both manga and anime, you can see the exact moment when Hokushin decides Yusuke is a worthy successor. When Yusuke finishes talking, Hokushin’s manner changes - I’d say subtly, but since he essentially gushes about how much Yusuke resembles Raizen for several lines that’s not really true lmao.

In any case, now that Yusuke’s been deemed worthy, Hokushin steps up immediately to rectify his mistake. And merely admitting an error and explaining himself isn’t gonna cut it in meeting Yusuke’s values - that’s just the bare minimum. A good retainer must know their master so well that they anticipate and go beyond what is merely being requested.

So when Yusuke asks for honesty, not only does Hokushin give that, he takes it one step further with his very succinct, very personal answer to Yusuke’s question of why he follows Raizen. (Paraphrased) "Because King Raizen is like you. Fighting at his side makes me happy. That's everything to me." I can't think of a more perfect reply to mollify, impress and intrigue Yusuke as quickly as that. And in both manga and anime they give Yusuke this little pause as he takes it in - the animation team makes this even more exaggerated than what Togashi did. What I also love is that the dialogue in this scene strongly implies that Hokushin knew how to respond because he knew Raizen so well.

Obviously more stuff happens in the year and a half they spend together in the Makai. Whatever happens, it's clear Yusuke comes to trust Hokushin a lot. He even tells him private, personal things of a nature we don't see him sharing with any other characters. To me, this signals that Hokushin did what a good loyal retainer does, which is to get what makes Yusuke tick and not repeat the same mistake again. (Which is why I always get annoyed at that unnecessary scene they added in the anime version of the tournament... ANYWAYS lol)

Yusuke and Hokushin: the duty of the master

Yusuke starts the series as a solitary delinquent. He despises convention and authority, and dependence on others is a pain. He generally puts on a disaffected attitude, and he often downplays serious emotions with distracting and emotionally shielding tactics like sarcasm. For a character like him, it’s pretty easy to imagine him being all “What the hell, I don’t want to be king! I don’t need a servant!! Go away”. To reject Hokushin’s presence or role totally wouldn’t be out of character. 

One of the things I love about the dynamics between Yusuke and Hokushin is that Yusuke clearly gets Hokushin's mindset, and because of it, steps up in order to be able to reciprocate the relationship. In the classic ideal, the existence of the master gives the retainer’s existence purpose. A warrior without a master is considered ronin, which is a very shameful status. The master’s duty is to be(come) worthy of the loyal retainer’s devotion and to recognize the latter’s value and loyalty, often in unspoken ways.

Yusuke doesn’t want to be king - he outright says that he doesn’t think himself smart enough to take care of everyone in his kingdom. But he accepts the responsibility of his role in his relationship with Hokushin.

Yusuke’s conversations with Hokushin tend to be discussions that are not only honest but also mature. He takes good opportunities to rely on, and to acknowledge, Hokushin as a retainer without hesitation and without pretending complaint. He actually behaves a lot like a lord in the classic relationship in terms of conveying authority, direction, and intimate concerns (in his Yusuke way lol). 

In the meeting with Yomi, Yusuke’s use of the rurimaru is shocking to Hokushin, but when you watch the way the scene is carried off, he bears himself really well in his role. He didn’t carve the rurimaru just because he couldn’t find paper for his lottery names - he specifically chose to do it to the rurimaru, and their value is clearly taken into consideration for his purpose. He also doesn’t crack jokes about having vandalized the gemstones, which, again, would not have been out of character for Yusuke. Instead, he merely presents them exactly the way they should be - as a gift - to ensure he gets Yomi’s attention about his proposal. His body language is dead serious, and he also doesn’t address Hokushin's shocked reactions through the entire scene. He only addresses Yomi. This is totally appropriate form as one ruler to another. 

And even after the kingdom is dissolved, Yusuke doesn’t abandon his people, nor shoo Hokushin off. Hokushin is nearly always at his side throughout the tournament. If we look back at the principles of the loyal retainer archetype, one of the things worse than death is to be told by their master "I don't want you for a servant. You’re a useless burden to me". Of course, another aspect of the archetype is that actions speak louder, so the worst would be actually doing things that reinforce/confirm that statement, but it would still be extremely wounding.

A very clear demonstration of the above is when the two of them arrive at the edge of Yomi's territory. The conversation is basically as follows.

Yusuke: OK thanks for guiding me here. You go home now. Dangerous I go alone you know the drill. Hokushin: No, I'm coming with you. You’re my king. It's my duty to protect you. Yusuke: *after a pause* OK fine behave yourself.

with no further argument from Yusuke. No complaints about being called king, no sarcastic remarks about having a tagalong, nothing. Which is not something we usually see or would expect from him. The emotionally downplayed way the entire conversation happens is also very typical. In light of his character and the dynamics of the master-retainer relationship, Yusuke’s behaviour is extremely thoughtful and kind. 

Yusuke and Hokushin: the duty of the servant

So Yusuke weighed Hokushin’s response and knew there there was no way Hokushin would have let him go into enemy territory alone. So? It’s not like it’s the first time he’s ever disagreed with someone over how something should be done. So what’s different about this situation, compared to how things might have gone down with any other character who is very close to/invested in Yusuke and has previously confirmed they WOULD be willing to risk death for him - Keiko or Kuwabara, for example?

The difference (aside from the fact that they’re civilians and Hokushin’s a warrior, and Hokushin’s obviously a lot stronger and more likely to survive in most situations) is that Keiko and Kuwabara are Yusuke’s friends. Or more, if you want. But even for other people close to Yusuke who ARE warriors, the biggest difference is that they are not bound in servitude to him. Again, the keyword here is duty - and that concept is huge. Yusuke’s friends want to help him. Hokushin wants to help Yusuke too, but not only that, he MUST help Yusuke. His very existence is an obligation to do so. In some cultures, especially modern ones where the emphasis is on the individual, this can be difficult to appreciate and/or seen as an illogical insanity, but it’s a matter of fact for the loyal retainer. They see themselves as an extension of the will of their master.  

Keiko and Kuwabara and any of Yusuke’s other friends mentally would have a normal person pause of “This is ridiculous, stupid Yusuke, you’re crazy!!” and still try to do self-preserving-type things in most instances. To some degree, there’s still an aspect of their decision-making that is not only about Yusuke. They still have a sense that in their relationship with him, they have roles of similar or equal value/weight.

That’s absolutely not true for the loyal retainer. The servant is not equal to the master and the servant firmly believes this because that’s what their existence is defined by. Plus those ingrained principles. For Hokushin, there’d be no normal person pause. We’d zip through that flowchart and he’d be like “You’re crazy. But you’re my king. Guess I’ll die” and like jump into an active volcano or whatever. He would be completely and unhesitatingly willing do something, whether it’s spur-of-the moment or deliberately planned, that would result in death if he thought it’d help safeguard Yusuke/achieve Yusuke’s endgoal. And obviously that's the last thing Yusuke wants.

With this character archetype, this is where a lot of stories end up going for the “and then one of them pretended to let the other person have their way before SURPRISE KNOCKING THE OTHER PERSON UNCONSCIOUS TO PROTECT THEM, and then they went on to do their selfless ‘getting killed in your place’ thing” which I’m super glad Togashi never resorts to. Since all the above builds up to a huge part of what makes the reveal of Yusuke’s gift to Yomi extra effective - Hokushin’s reactions. This is largely why the scene is so comical, because Hokushin’s manner grows more and more freaked out - and entertaining, being in direct contrast to his stoic retainer archetype. Meanwhile, as mentioned previously, Yusuke’s bearing (if not his manner of speaking...) is exactly as a lord in the midst of negotiations would be. (My favourite part is where Hokushin still tries his best to address Yusuke properly as king, before losing it when he finds out Yusuke vandalized the rurimaru. In the manga, his expressions are beyond hilarious. In the anime, his scramble to recover the appropriate body language is really cute. His constantly shifting expressions throughout the background of this entire episode are great too. I always really like the faces in the episodes directed by Enomoto Akihiro.)

Finally, food.

One more challenge with Hokushin is his diet. He needs to eat humans or will suffer from the same malnutrition that is sapping Raizen’s energy and killing him. At the same time, he’s depicted as a character of integrity and compassion, so I always feel obligated to think carefully about the topic of procuring a human for food. I take a stab at an idea in the prequel Mirror Most Dark. However, the approach isn’t very feasible for the time period of actual Yu Yu Hakusho.

From a writing perspective, the problem is one of scale. It goes beyond Hokushin as an individual to the situation of a reliable/sustainable food source in Raizen’s kingdom for the % of Raizen’s population that needs it. And whatever it is, Hokushin is likely highly involved as the main instrument of Raizen’s will. I have some ideas but haven’t really cared to flesh (haha) them out to a point that’s satisfactory to me yet, so it’s only barely touched on in One and a Half Revolutions. This is far less of an issue after the series ends, when you can easily come up with ideas on how they’re looking for or have found alternatives, but during the time period of the actual series your options are more restricted. 

I have lots more stuff around these themes and ideas planned for North Bound too I JUST NEED TO GET AROUND TO DRAWING THEM

In conclusion, thank you for reading this mess lmao.

[archergabriella]

How To Cure Premature Ejaculation In Islam Astonishing Tips

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[garyrenard-blog]

7 Questions And Answers To Unwind Your Mind

A Course In Miracles

A Course in Miracles is thus pure, thus splendid, so effective, therefore considerably more spiritually innovative than some other item of the globe's literature (past times as well as existing), that you possess to really experience it to think it. Yet those whose minds are actually also connected to life notions, and also lack the rooting crave true religious understanding that is essential for its own understanding, are going to likely not know a singular entire page. That is actually not because A Course in Miracles is perplexing - on the contrary its own concepts are remarkably straightforward - but instead because it is the attribute of spiritual expertise that those who are actually certainly not prepared to know it, merely may not comprehend it. As explained in the Bible, at the start of guide of John: "The light shineth in darkness, and darkness comprehended it not".

Ever before due to the fact that I first heard of the magnificent and also stunning existence of God, I have actually delighted in reading through lots of splendid religious jobs like the Bible (my beloved parts are actually the Sermon on the Mount and also Psalms), the Bhagavad-Gita, the Upanishads, the Koran as well as the poems of Kabir and Rumi. None happen close to the greatness of a Course in Miracles Reviewing it with an open thoughts as well as heart, your concerns and also issues remove. You hear of a spectacular passion deeper within you - deeper than just about anything you recognized before. The potential begins to seem so bright for you and also your adored ones. You experience love for everybody including those you recently have made an effort to leave omitted. These expertises are quite strong as well as at opportunities throw you off harmony a little, yet it is worth it: A Course in Miracles offers you to an affection so relaxed, thus strong consequently global - you will definitely ask yourself exactly how numerous of the globe's religions, whose objective is purportedly a similar experience, got so off track acim.

I want to state here to any sort of Christian that thinks that his church's mentors carry out certainly not absolutely satisfy his thirstiness to know a kind, merciful and also caring God, however is actually relatively afraid to go through the Course due to others' insurance claims that it is actually irregular along with "correct" Christianity: Don't worry! I have actually reviewed the scriptures numerous opportunities and I guarantee you that a Course in Miracles is completely steady with Jesus' trainings while he got on planet. Don't be afraid the obsessed defenders of exclusionist conviction - these unsatisfactory folks presume themselves to be the only service providers of Jesus' message, as well as the just one worthy of his benefits, while all various other are going to debauch. A Course in Miracles demonstrates Jesus' true message: unconditional affection for * all people *. While he performed the planet, Jesus said to determine a tree through its fruit. So offer it a try out and view exactly how the fruits that ripen in your lifestyle flavor. If they taste bad, you may abandon A Course in Miracles. But if they sample as pleasant as my own do, as well as the countless various other true applicants that have discovered A Course in Miracles to be nothing lower than a heavenly jewel, after that congratses - as well as might your heart consistently be actually abundantly loaded with peaceful, nurturing delight.

Altering Lives Through A Course in Miracles.

As the label implies, A Course in Miracles is actually a teaching tool. It educates us what is actually actual and also what is actually unreal, and also leads us to the direct expertise of our personal Inner Teacher.

The Course is actually prepared in three components: a text, a book for students and also a manual for teachers. The Text shows the ideas underlying the Course. The book consists of 365 daily sessions that offer students the possibility to use and experience the ideas on a practical degree. The instructor's manual exists in an inquiry and also answer style, resolving traditional inquiries that a student might ask; it likewise supplies a definition of terms made use of throughout the Course.

On How all of it Began

The Course was actually written by Helen Schucman as well as Bill Thetford, two very qualified and prosperous Professors of Psychology at Columbia University's College of Physicians and also Surgeons in New York City. Helen was actually the scribe for the Course, writing down in dictation the inner notifications she acquired. Bill keyed what Helen wrote. It took a total amount of 7 years to complete A Course in Miracles, which was actually initial published in 1976 in the United States. Helen created extra tracts. Her Song of Prayer was posted in 1977 as well as The Gift of God in 1978.

Over recent 34 years, the appeal of A Course in Miracles has expanded and also dispersed worldwide. It has actually been actually equated in to 18 various foreign languages as well as even more interpretations are actually in the works. Throughout the planet, individuals acquire along with other like-minded students to read through the Course with each other in order to much better recognize the Course's information. In this era of electronic as well as social networking sites, A Course in Miracles can easily be actually gotten in electronic book layout, on Compact Disc, as well as through iPhone Apps. You may communicate along with various other Course trainees on Facebook, Yahoo Groups, Twitter, and also many other sites acim.

Experiencing the Course

The Course is actually developed to become a self-study device. Nevertheless, lots of pupils discover that their 1st communication with the component is tough and frustrating - the improvement in perspective that it delivers contrasts conventional thinking. Taking a promotional class with a skilled facilitator or instructor allows for a gentler position to these brand new suggestions and a much more fulfilling adventure.

There are actually a lot of lessons as well as courses of research based upon the viewpoint of A Course in Miracles, as well as even particular lessons on essential Course principles, including True Forgiveness or even Cause as well as Effect. Such courses give trainees the possibility to experience the theory as well as treatment of particular component more heavily. By means of such deeper expertise, numerous trainees find the peace of mind of internal peace and also the joy of knowing the Inner Teacher.

A Very Brief History of a Course in Miracles

Over 40 years back, a psychologist coming from Columbia University began to transport revelations from a metaphysical company that she was convinced was Jesus themself. She and also her assistants generated teachings that filled thousands of vacant webpages over a duration of 7 years which later became "A Course In Miracles."

The psychologist was actually a Jewish woman called Helen Schucman, and also she said to folks that Jesus Christ himself was her personal spirit guide for these sessions and teachings. These trainings were expected to deliver support for people to know that they were the just one responsible of their personal sensations, mindsets, actions and also destinies. The teachings took lots of penalties of actions away from the formula. Undoubtedly, a hallmark of the ACIM training course is that wicked on its own performs certainly not exist. The ACIM teachings firmly insist that through teaching your mind appropriately, you can discover that there is actually no such factor as bad, and also it is actually simply an impression or something that people have actually established up to scare and manage the actions and ideas of those who are actually not efficient in presuming on their own. ACIM insists that the only trait that does exist is actually pure love and also upright thoughts as well as mentally right thinking are going to not make it possible for anything like evil to exist.

These concepts and opinions angered lots of folks who came from a few of the major faiths because, while they embraced most of the exact same principles, this program additionally found to possess people think that wickedness is actually certainly not actual and as a result sin is actually likewise certainly not real. ACIM itself attempts to possess folks count on the solemnity as well as sensible beliefs and also habits and also in the fact that nothing can easily damage you unless you strongly believe that it can. Alternative masters were simple to understand onto these ideas considering that numerous of the New Age faiths are actually based certainly not on transgression and redemption however the power of one's own mind and also spirit.

ACIM performs give some mentors concerning just how to clear on your own of upset as well as unfavorable emotions that are flooding your life with issues and also generating health problem as well as unhappiness time by time. A Course In Miracles instructs you that you are actually accountable for these feelings and also they are actually merely harming you. Consequently, it depends on you to free them from your life for your very own happiness and also abundance.

For More Information Visit https://a-course-in-miracles.org/

[martin9395]

A Course In Miracles

A Course In Miracles

 A Course in Miracles is therefore pure, therefore splendid, therefore effective, therefore so much more spiritually enhanced than any kind of other part of the planet's literary works (past and found), that you need to actually experience it to think it. Yet those whose thoughts are too affixed to worldly thoughts, and lack the rooting being thirsty for accurate spiritual knowledge that is essential for its understanding, are going to likely certainly not comprehend a solitary entire page. That is actually not because A Course in Miracles is confusing - as a matter of fact its own concepts are remarkably simple - but instead since it is the nature of religious know-how that those who are actually not all set to recognize it, just may certainly not know it. As explained in the Bible, at the start of guide of John: "The sunlight shineth in night, as well as night knew it not".

https://acourseinmiraclesnow.com

 Ever before because I first heard of the marvelous and mind-blowing existence of God, I have enjoyed going through many excellent religious jobs like the Bible (my favored parts are the Sermon on the Mount as well as Psalms), the Bhagavad-Gita, the Upanishads, the Koran and the verse of Kabir and also Rumi. None of all of them happen close to the greatness of a Course in Miracles Reading it along with an open thoughts and also center, your fears and issues remove. You hear of a magnificent affection deeper within you - much deeper than anything you recognized previously. The future begins to seem so bright for you and your really loved ones. You think love for every person including those you formerly have actually attempted to leave behind excluded. These knowledge are incredibly strong and sometimes toss you off balance a little, but it is actually worth it: A Course in Miracles offers you to a love therefore relaxed, thus solid therefore universal - you will certainly ponder just how many of the globe's faiths, whose intention is actually purportedly a similar experience, obtained so mistaken acim.

 I would certainly just like to state here to any type of Christian who believes that his church's trainings carry out certainly not really please his being thirsty to know a kind, merciful as well as loving God, however is somewhat worried to read through the Course as a result of others' claims that it is inconsistent with "accurate" Christianity: Don't worry! I have actually gone through the gospels numerous opportunities and I assure you that a Course in Miracles is totally consistent along with Jesus' mentors while he performed the planet. Do not fear the obsessed defenders of exclusionist dogma - these unsatisfactory people think themselves to become the only service providers of Jesus' information, and also the just one deserving of his great things, while all other will definitely go to heck. A Course in Miracles demonstrates Jesus' true information: outright affection for * all people *. While he was actually on planet, Jesus pointed out to determine a tree through its fruit. Therefore give it a go as well as see how the fruit products that advance in your life preference. If they try poor, you may desert A Course in Miracles. Yet if they try as sweet as my own do, as well as the countless various other correct seekers that have actually located A Course in Miracles to become absolutely nothing lower than an incredible treasure, then congratulations - and also may your center constantly be actually generously loaded with peaceful, caring happiness.

 Changing Lives Through A Course in Miracles.

 As the headline implies, A Course in Miracles is a mentor tool. It instructs our team what is real and what is unbelievable, and leads our company to the direct adventure of our personal Inner Teacher.

 The Course is actually organized in three parts: a text, a workbook for students and a handbook for teachers. The Text provides the concepts underlying the Course. The workbook has 365 regular sessions that provide pupils the opportunity to administer as well as experience the concepts on a functional amount. The instructor's guide is presented in a question and response style, addressing regular questions that a trainee might talk to; it also delivers a clarification of phrases made use of throughout the Course.

 On How everything Began

 The Course was actually created through Helen Schucman and also Bill Thetford, 2 very trained and also effective Professors of Psychology at Columbia University's College of Physicians and Surgeons in New York City. Helen was the scribe for the Course, jotting down in shorthand the interior information she got. Bill entered what Helen composed. It took a total of seven years to complete A Course in Miracles, which was very first published in 1976 in the United States. Helen wrote additional handouts. Her Song of Prayer was released in 1977 and The Gift of God in 1978.

 Over recent 34 years, the attraction of A Course in Miracles has actually developed as well as dispersed worldwide. It has actually been translated into 18 various languages and also additional interpretations remain in the jobs. Throughout the globe, individuals compile along with other compatible students to read through the Course together in purchase to a lot better understand the Course's information. Within this time of digital and social networks, A Course in Miracles could be acquired in e-book format, on CD, and also with iPhone Apps. You may connect along with other Course students on Facebook, Yahoo Groups, Twitter, and numerous other web sites acim.

 Experiencing the Course

 The Course is actually developed to be actually a self-study device. Nonetheless, several pupils discover that their 1st communication with the product is hard and overwhelming - the improvement in viewpoint that it offers is in contrast to traditional reasoning. Taking a promotional training class with a competent facilitator or even educator allows a gentler position to these brand-new suggestions as well as a more satisfying experience.

 There are actually several lessons and also training courses of research based upon the approach of A Course in Miracles, and also even certain training class on crucial Course concepts, including True Forgiveness or even Cause and also Effect. Such lessons offer pupils the opportunity to experience the concept as well as treatment of particular product more greatly. Through such deep adventure, numerous students discover the peace of mind of interior calmness and also the happiness of knowing the Inner Teacher.

 A Very Brief History of a Course in Miracles

 Over 40 years earlier, a psycho therapist from Columbia University began to carry discoveries from a religious company that she was actually enticed was Jesus themself. She and her associates created teachings that loaded manies empty web pages over a period of 7 years which eventually became "A Course In Miracles."

 The psycho therapist was a Jewish woman named Helen Schucman, and she told folks that Jesus Christ himself was her own sense quick guide for these sessions as well as mentors. These courses were meant to offer support for folks to learn that they were actually the a single in management of their own feelings, perspectives, activities and also serendipities. The trainings took numerous fines of actions away from the formula. Without a doubt, a characteristic of the ACIM course is actually that heinous itself carries out not exist. The ACIM mentors insist that through qualifying your thoughts effectively, you can find out that there is no such trait as evil, and that it is only an assumption or even something that people have established to scare as well as manage the actions and also ideas of those that are actually certainly not competent of presuming on their own. ACIM urges that the only factor that carries out exist is pure passion which innocent minds and also spiritually correct reasoning will certainly not enable just about anything like wicked to exist.

 These tips and ideas outraged many individuals who came from several of the primary religions due to the fact that, while they espoused much of the exact same concepts, this training program likewise looked for to have people strongly believe that misery is actually unreal and as a result wrong is additionally certainly not actual. ACIM itself makes an effort to possess individuals care about the sanctity of right as well as wise views and also actions and in the fact that nothing may injure you unless you think that it can. New Age authorities were fast to grasp onto these concepts because most of the New Age religious beliefs are actually located out wrong and also redemption yet the power of one's very own mind and also sense.

 ACIM carries out deliver some teachings about how to clear yourself of upset and adverse emotional states that are actually flooding your lifestyle along with problems as well as generating ailment and distress everyday. A Course In Miracles instructs you that you are in charge of these feelings as well as they are actually merely hurting you. As a result, it falls to you to free them coming from your lifestyle for your personal joy and also abundance.

[pamphletstoinspire]

Catholic Physics - Reflections of a Catholic Scientist - Part 74

Are We Special? New Thoughts about the Anthropic Principle

Story with images:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/catholic-physics-reflections-scientist-part-74-harold-baines/?published=t

William Blake, Europe--A Prophecy from Wikimedia Commons (Caption for linked image)

“Scientists are slowly waking up to an inconvenient truth - the universe looks suspiciously like a fix. The issue concerns the very laws of nature themselves. For 40 years, physicists and cosmologists have been quietly collecting examples of all too convenient "coincidences" and special features in the underlying laws of the universe that seem to be necessary in order for life, and hence conscious beings, to exist. Change any one of them and the consequences would be lethal. Paul Davies, winner of the 1995 Templeton Prize

"It is a strange fact, incidentally, that religious apologists love the anthropic principle. For some reason that makes no sense at all, they think it supports their case. Precisely the opposite is true. The anthropic principle, like natural selection, is an alternative to the design hypothesis. It provides a rational, design-free explanation for the fact that we find ourselves in a situation propitious to our existence.” Richard Dawkins, The God Delusion

INTRODUCTION

You see in the quotes above two different views of the Anthropic Principle, that our universe is finely tuned to support carbon-based life; it's known in several versions ranging in acronym form from Weak Anthropic Principle (WAP), to Strong Anthropic Principle (SAP), to Christian Anthropic Principle (CAP), to Completely Ridiculous Anthropic Principle (you do the acronym).

My interest has been awakened again by conversations (via email) with an author who believes that the Anthropic Principle, as exemplified in a series of physical events and values for constants -- the anthropic coincidences -- strongly and quantitatively (via probability arguments) supports the proposition of a creating God.

I also believe that these anthropic coincidences help us to believe in God, but I do not believe that probability arguments, as they have been used heretofore, are valid.   Rather, I take the point of view of the psalmist in Psalm 19:

"The heavens declare the glory of God; and the firmament sheweth his handywork. Day unto day uttereth speech, and night unto night sheweth knowledge. There is no speech nor language, where their voice is not heard." KJV

THE ANTHROPIC COINCIDENCES AND FINE-TUNING

These anthropic coincidences have been discussed in two other posts on this blog:  Philosophic Issues in Cosmology 6, The Theology of Water.  I'll summarize the arguments presented in these posts; if you, the reader, are not familiar with the ins and outs of the anthropic principle, I urge you to read these posts and the references contained therein.

I'll not go through an exhaustive list -- that's done in references given in the linked posts; rather they can be categorized as follows:

Features of the universe -- e.g. space dimensionality 3; the mass/energy content of the initial universe that enabled expansion but not immediate collapse; uniformity in very early universe; size;

Finely tuned values for fundamental physical parameters -- e.g. the mass difference between proton and neutrons that enables stability for nuclear processes; the carbon-12 excited state energy that by resonance enhances the probability of carbon-12 nucleus formation from a rare collision of three He nuclei;

Nature of physical laws -- e.g ratio of electromagnetic force to gravitational force; inverse cube force law for gravity; quantum mechanical laws that enable chemical bonding and (see below) the special properties of water;

"Accidental" geo-astronomical features -- e.g. tilt of the earth's axis enabling life-friendly climate, unusually large moon shielding earth from asteroid and meteor collision.

It must be emphasized that there are many more instances of such fine tuning -- parameters for which the values have to lie between narrow limits to enable a life-supporting universe, and many more examples of geo-astronomical and chemical features.  Ellis, in the reference linked above, specifies general conditions that must obtain for a universe to contain life as we know it.

IS THERE A PROBABILITY FOR THE UNIVERSE?  

Some Christian apologists use the anthropic coincidences as an argument for the existence of God by citing the very low probability for their occurrence; all these happening would not occur by chance.  A major objection to this procedure, which Ellis points out, is that the universe is a single datum -- probability arguments are generally applied to samples from larger collections for which we have information about variability.

For example, if you've examined 20,000 crates of oranges and found 100 crates containing bad oranges, you'd be justified in putting a probability of 100/20,000 or .005 in finding a bad orange in the next crate.  But if you've only come across one crate of oranges, then it's speculation to put a probability on finding a bad orange. (But see below.)

Another error one finds is that some apologists list a string of fine tuning examples (call them a,b,c,d...x), and then use the argument that P(a,b,c,d...x) = P(a) P(b) P(c)P(d)...P(x).  They say that the probability of the total set is the product of the probabilities for each member of the set.

This would be true if the events were independent, in other words if what happened for one event did not depend on what happened for another.* Such independence will not necessarily hold.  Consider, for example, the properties of water that are life-friendly:

Model of Ice Structure, red: oxygen; white, hydrogen Dashed lines represent hydrogen bonds - From Wikimedia Commons (Caption for linked image)

thermodynamic -- high freezing and boiling points, high specific heat, etc.;

physical -- surface tension, low specific gravity of ice, maximum density of liquid water at 4 deg C.  

These properties all depend on the very unusual capacity of protons in a H2O molecule to form strong hydrogen bonds to oxygen atoms in other H2O molecules.  And that hydrogen bonding capability arises from quantum mechanics and the physical nature of electrostatic attraction.  So it is one feature, not many, for which a probability should entered. .  And how do you assess the probability of quantum mechanics giving rise to hydrogen-bonding?

PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF BELIEF

"But is it probable that probability brings certainty?" Blaise Pascal, Pensees 496

I'm going to try a different approach, using probability as a measure of belief. (I apologize to those professional statisticians and mathematicians who will certainly be offended by my presumption.)  The approach is my take on Richard Jeffrey's Subjective Probability.

Let's start with a different definition of probability, based on strength of belief.  Consider the following examples for betting on a horse race.  You overhear a trainer telling a pal that "the next race is fixed for Trump's Nag to win, with odds of 9/1".  You bet $10, expecting to win $90.  The defined probability, working from the odds ratio, is 1/(9+1) = 0.10.  The probability of losing your bet is then 1- 0.10 = 0.90.  The expectation value is 0 = 0.10 x 90 + 0.90 x(-10).

The next step is to consider conditional probability, that is how the probability of an event depends on a linked event.  Let A represent the event that the stock price rises to $100.  Let B represent the event that information about the possible rise of the stock is given.  Then the conditional probability is denoted as p(A|B), the probability of event A given that event B occurs.  Note that there is no causal relation implied here--it's only a matter of evidence.

Now to the meat of the matter.  Let F represent the event of fine-tuning for the universe; G, that God exists; N, that God does not exist (or that "Naturalism= materialism" accounts for everything).  Then

p(G| F ) is a probability, a degree of belief, that F --> G, i.e. fine-tuning is evidence for the existence of God;  

p(N | F) is a probability that fine-tuning implies that God does not exist;  

p(F | G) is the probability that if God exists then He can fine-tune the universe;  

p(F | N) is the probability that a fine-tuned universe would occur in the absence of God;  

p(G) is the probability--the degree of belief--that God exists;

p(N) is the probability--the degree of belief--that God does not exist.

Then straightforward manipulation gives (see note **) yields

P(G | F)) = [ P(G) ] [ P(F | G) ]

P(N | F)   [ P(N) ] [ P(F | N)]        

   1        2       3

Term 1 is a likelihood ratio for belief that fine-tuning implies the existence of God to belief that fine-tuning implies no God; term 2 is a likelihood ratio for belief in God to belief in no God (naturalism);  term 3 is a likelihood ratio for belief that God, if He exists, would create a fine-tuned universe to support life to belief that naturalism/materialism would yield a fine-tuned universe.

Now certainly term 3 is a number much greater than 1, even if the exact value is indeterminate.  The value for term 2 will depend on the individual -- for a Christian martyr, it would be a huge number;  for Richard Dawkins or Lawrence Kraus it would be a very small number.

Here's the point: the value you impute to term 1, the likelihood ratio for belief that a fine-tuned universe is evidence for the existence of God, will be greater than 1 if you are not a hard core atheist.  If you're agnostic -- it's a 50/50 proposition that God exists -- then certainly fine tuning should convince you that God exists.  If you're an extreme atheist, then term 2 could become small enough to swamp term 3, even if the latter is very large.

So the upshot is that if you do believe in God or if you're an agnostic, fine tuning can be evidence for God's creating hand.  If you're an atheist -- this will not be sufficient evidence.  And we come again to Grace given by the Holy Spirit as the mechanism for faith.  

NOTES

* Further, if you do this with a large number of events, it will certainly not lead to useful information.  Consider a series of 50 independent events, each of which has a probability of 0.9.  Then the probability for all the events happening together is 0.9 ^ 50 = .0052. which is small, even though the probability for the events individually is large.

**Consider p(A and B), the probability that both A and B occur (or that both A and B are true propositions).  Then a form of Bayes' theorem is that

p(A and B) = p(A | B) p(B) = p (B | A) p(A);  

whence p(A | B) = [p(A)/p(B)] [ p( B | A) ]

From a series of articles written by: Bob Kurland - a Catholic Scientist

[unillustratedadventures]

Why We Should Call Trump a 'Narcissist'

In a Psychology Today article, Dr Allen Francis, who helped put together the DSM criteria for narcissistic personality disorder, is decrying the popular attribution of narcissism to Donald Trump. I appreciate the spirit in which these comments were offered. But the comments are also somewhat arrogant and myopic.

Two separate claims have allegedly been made. The first is descriptive; it is simply the claim that Trump is not, in fact, a narcissist. The support allegedly given for this claim is that Trump does not meet the DSM criteria for narcissistic personality disorder. The author of the comments also implies that he should know, since he is responsible for those criteria. Let’s put aside the fact that DSM categories are voted for by a committee of clinicians and academics, on the basis of empirical findings. For the sake of argument, let’s take the relevant claim from authority at face value.

The second claim is normative. It divides into both a general and a specific implication. Generally-speaking, the claim is that we should not pathologise bad behaviour. More specifically, the claim is that we should not attribute narcissism to Trump on the basis of his bad behaviour. The reasons given for this normative claim are, roughly, (i) that pathologising bad behaviour might somehow mitigate or excuse such behaviour, and (ii) that calling Trump a narcissist is unfair to narcissists, since narcissists are genuinely mentally ill and many of them are well-intentioned.

Both the descriptive claim and the normative claim are false.

The mentioned hubris emanates mainly from the first, descriptive claim. Narcissisism and narcissistic personality disorder are not the same thing. Narcissism is a personality trait that extends over a healthy range of behaviours, in addition to extending over disordered behaviours (at its extreme). Narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) is the specific diagnostic category of the DSM, which identifies a cluster of symptoms for the purposes of classification and treatment. It is simply authoritarian arrogance to conflate the two (authoritarian arrogance of precisely this kind has helped to nudge the DSM closer and closer to disrepute).

NPD is a diagnostic category that hinges entirely on a cluster of clinically observable symptoms, for the express purpose of clinical treatment. As such, NPD, like all DSM diagnostic categories, emphasises various pragmatic conditions for classification and treatment. In particular, Trump supposedly fails to meet the criteria for diagnosis, because he fails to meet the criterion of experiencing distress and dysfunction. It is claimed that Trump causes distress to others instead, as if the two were mutually exclusive. (This is called the ‘disjunction fallacy’ or, more colloquially, a ‘false dichotomy’. It is particularly aggregious in the case of NPD, whose sufferers are well-known to cause a great deal of suffering, in turn, to the people around them.) However, just as members of the public do not know enough about Trump’s personal life to genuinely diagnose him with NPD, members of the public also do not know enough about Trump’s personal life to judge that he is not experiencing distress and dysfunction, of the sort that would warrant diagnosis and treatment. The point is especially salient in the case of extreme narcissism, since it is in the nature of narcissism to do whatever it takes to hide such distress and dysfunction, especially from the eyes of the public. In fact, this alone would be a fairly good rough definition of extreme narcissism. Extreme narcissists are desperate to enforce and maintain an ideal image of themselves, and to a pathological degree. For this reason, it is often the case that only those close to the narcissist are fully aware of the true extent of his narcissism.

So that’s a non-starter. However, it probably wouldn’t matter even if it wasn’t. A great many psychological and psychiatric professionals and academics have stated publicly that they strongly believe Trump to be an extreme narcissist. Some have voiced the suspicion that he would specifically qualify for a diagnosis of NPD. This is isn’t just because of the point made above; i.e., it isn’t just because they suspect that Trump’s distress and dysfunction are hidden from the public. Rather, it is because distress and dysfunction are not even among the specific diagnostic criteria of NPD (despite the fact that Francis claims to be single-handedly responsible for these criteria). Instead, looking for distress and dysfunction in the patient and her history are peripheral guidelines for diagnosis, which remain much the same for all of the DSM diagnostic categories. Strictly-speaking, to be diagnosed with NPD, one need only have 5 of a total of 9 criteria. On this basis, it would seem that Trump more than qualifies for a diagnosis of NPD.

More important, however, is the fact that while NPD is closely related to narcissism, it is not identical to narcissism. As mentioned, narcissism is a personality trait. Typically, when it is claimed that Trump is a narcissist, the intended claim is that Trump is extreme with respect to this personality trait, and not that Trump could be diagnosed with NPD.

This brings me to the falsity of the second, normative claim. Even though mental illness is not reliably mitigating in the courts, there is a popular idea that it is nevertheless mitigating or excusing in some deeper sense. This popular idea might apply straightforwardly to those mental illnesses that used to be classified as ‘Axis I’ disorders, in the DSM. However, its applicability is not quite so clear when it comes to the personality disorders, or character disturbances (which the DSM used to collect under 'Axis II’). There is ongoing debate, among clinicians and academics, as to whether there is a genuine distinction to be made between personality disorders and the other mental illnesses. However, this debate is primarily concerned with whether there is a difference with respect to diagnosis and treatment, and not with respect to whether there is a difference in aetiology or underlying nature. E.g., if borderline personality disorder turns out to respond to all of the same treatments as type 1 bipolar disorder (it certainly responds to many of them), then it would be argued that the DSM should not distinguish between these diagnostic categories. However, this is motivated by precisely the attitude mentioned above—it is motivated by an exclusive concern with classification for the purposes of treatment, and not from a concern with aetiology or underying nature. The DSM has for a long time—and as a matter of necessity, given our relative lack of knowledge about mental illnesses—been concerned only with symptomatology and treatment.

The broader point is that there is, at least in principle, a difference of aetiology or underlying nature between personality disorders and the other mental illnesses. Personality disorders consist in pervasive dispositions or patterns of behaviour, which are difficult to distinguish from other, more profound aspects of the personality (beliefs, desires, emotions, and so on). They are difficult to distinguish from the rest of the person, both from the point of view of the clinician, *and* from the point of view of the patient herself. When a patient first presents with a personality disorder, it is highly typical for her to have originally sought help for other issues. Someone with a personality disorder typically struggles to recognise the problem with her bad behaviours at the time she is exhibiting them, and she is typically unaware of such problems until they have caused significant problems for her, or she is professionally diagnosed with a personality disorder.

The reason for stressing the distinction between personality disorders and other mental illnesses is that we are more likely to hold somebody responsible for her actions if they are seen as resulting from her personality (or from her beliefs and desires), rather than from a mental illness that is somehow separable from her personality. Indeed, what *is* being responsible for an action in the first place, other than the fact that one’s action was voluntary and deliberate? And what is the voluntariness and deliberateness of an action, other than its having been caused in the right way by one’s beliefs and desires? It is in virtue of the fact that narcissism is a personality trait that extreme narcissists *are* routinely judged to have bad intentions, despite the fact that they are mentally ill in a certain sense (i.e., in virtue of their extremity). Since extreme narcissism is a variety of personality disorder or character disturbance, the attribution of narcissism to Trump is far less likely to be seen as mitigating or excusing, in the suggested way.

Lastly, even *if* there were no distinction in aetiology or underlying nature between personality disorders and other mental illnesses, such that there was no corresponding difference with respect to mitigation, it would still be worth attributing narcissism to Trump (assuming that this attribution is appropriate). In other words, the second, normative claim fails no matter what.

It is uninformative to say that Trump merely 'behaves badly’. In contrast, an attribution of extreme narcissism constitutes an attempt to predict Trump’s specific bad behaviours, and to identify the specific causes of those behaviours. Extreme narcissism is an extreme personality trait, which predicts specific kinds of bad behaviours in specific kinds of circumstances. Thus, if an attribution of extreme narcissism to Trump is appropriate, then it is a helpful thing to do. This attribution would be predictive, and thereby allow us to anticipate and prepare for Trump’s bad behaviours; perhaps to pre-empt and avoid them; and perhaps to minimise the damage when they cannot be pre-empted and avoided. By comparison, a simple attribution of bad behaviour is no help at all; it makes little difference. It is not predictive in any useful sense.

It is not surprising that an engineer of the DSM has overlooked this useful, predictive function of personality constructs (such as extreme narcissism). The medical model has little interest in the constructs of personality, beyond their relationships to classifiable disorders and the well-defined treatments of those disorders. The predictivity of personality traits is an 'on the ground’ sort of predictivity; it is explanatory, interpersonal, and sociopolitical. It helps to inform the victims and the potential victims of bad behaviours, but does not provide any paint-by-numbers way of fixing or changing the personality traits that predict those bad behaviours. By itself, extreme narcissism does not constitute a medical-style diagnosis for the purposes of treatment. In this respect, it is unlike DSM diagnostic categories such as narcissistic personality disorder. However, it is partly in virtue of this fact that it is worth attributing extreme narcissism to Trump.