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parniarazi · 5 years ago

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So...2020 has been interesting so far, right? Although I’ve been wanting to transition from sharing content on this blog to creating my own podcast/vlog in 2020, that’s something that I want to be put more time into thoughtfully creating since it’s new territory to me. Having this moment in time to breathe, spend some time at home, and really feel back into myself and my creative side has led me to wanting to still post on this platform. Just some patterns I’ve noticed lately, feelings the current state of the world has brought up, and lessons the universe has sent my way - maybe you’ll relate, take away something valuable, or at least have a little food for thought.

This year started off in a whirlwind with the tr*mp adminstration coming at my home country of Iran- for most people this is an old headline or moment in the news that is long past- but for Iranian Americans that’s a moment we haven’t forgotten. Being scared for the livelihood of our home country and family members who live there is something I wouldn’t wish on anyone, and seeing the following protests and both social/economic unrest just hurt my heart. The U.S. creates so much instability and pain in other countries and people here just forget about it and move on the next day, politics as usual. They don’t see the lives and people behind the headlines who are actually impacting by inflation and instability in their country - people who are just trying to feed their kids and live a normal life like the rest of us. These issues run deep, but this has weighed on my consciousness and stayed with me since then.

In February, I was reminded of the people who love me and are there for me on a daily basis. I had a lovely 4th year celebrating Valentines with my man, and my parents also showered me with love despite our distance now. I’m glad I’ve struck a good balance with my family - being close and seeing each other often but still having the necessary distance to grow up and make my own decisons wirhout their overbearing influence. I also got to visit my favorite city, spending some time in Austin again and see my favorite cousin/long distance bestie when she came to visit! School and work are overwhelming at times, but I’m more adjusted and handling my anxiety better. This semester seems near-impossible to handle with 2 internships, 2 graduate courses in a new field for me, and 1 job that I don’t particularly like. But it’s life and I gotta push through it!

Miraculously, things start to align after a pretty shitty mercury retrograde season in which I wrecked my car and dealt with a lot of financial stress. Time seems to be moving faster and I’m just trying to get through my days. I’m noticing this pattern of reconnecting with people from my past - from my old to best friend and neighbor from Kansas, to old internet friends and coworkers, there seems to a pattern of rekindling old connections and friendships. It’s really beautiful and I think a natural part of growing up, because it allows us to see what things change or don’t change over time, the poeple we’re still able to connect with, and who’s really meant to be in our life for the long run. It’s an odd feeling to connect with people from the past, but it makes me feel warm and nostalgic (and old, haha). I’m embracing it with a fully open heart, and I know the universe is sending people, old and new, into my life for a reason and it’s all part of my path.

Then this whole crazy cornavrius and public health pandemic start to get serious. Pavel and I are worried as it starts to rapidly spread and becomes the only topic the news is covering. Houston is a particularly dangerous spot, and we soon have to cancel some concerts we’ve had tickets to for months and our festival trip for our 4th year at Buku. I have asthma and Pavel has CF, so we are both at-risk for serious health complications if we come in contact with this virus since due to our pre-existing conditions.

At first, it’s just dealing with a lot of cancelled plans and upcoming trips - which end up being a blessing in disguise for those financial worries I mentioned. However, it becomes increasingly apparent that this public health pandemic is not affecting everyone equally. There are people who are losing their jobs because of the economic impact of this global issue, my dad even expresses concern over his job and company as the oil and chemical industry takes a hard hit. This breaks my heart because he’s been through a lay-off and recession before and it was hard on our family. He doesn’t deserve this stress or to have to go through that again. There are people much worse off though, people who work hourly and can’t make a living due to more and more businesses closing and events post-poning or cancelling.

The world is actually a mess - schools are cancelling, grocery stores are empty, and people are struggling to take care of their kids and find adequate healthcare if they are sick. Everything is political and how these situations are handled directly affects everyone, but of course those at the bottom take the hardest hits as always. I’m struggling to make sense of everything, as many others are too. To me, the weaknesses of our democracy are glaringly clear at a time like this, and being old enough to truly understand it from an economic standpoint too makes it even worse. Individualism is at its peak, as people hoard resources and allow panic and ignorance to take over. Lives are being entirely uprooted and changed, people are feeling serious and immediate effects of this scary time. Little to no support is offered to those most vulnerable - those with disabilities who can’t take care of themselves, elderly people, poor people without access to computers/internet or the money to bulk-buy food and necessities.

Yet people in this country are still afraid and think it’s too radical to elect a ‘socialist’ leader? The way other countries have taken care of people, provided food and resources, while middle-class Americans hoard toilet paper...I wish people had the capacity to understand what this reaction/situation is revealing about us. It says a lot about the disconnect between the American mentality and the actual reality of collective conciousness with the world/humanity.

There is a lot to be said and unpacked about this situation - politically, economically, and socially. But above all I can’t stop thinking about what the universe is telling us right now. Despite the luxuries we have and what life in this ‘first world’ country looks like - we are still human and susceptible to the same things that harm people on the other side of the world. We are not exceptional or special - we are just like anyone else, we are human, and anything that is a threat to humanity is a threat to us. Having modern luxuries doesn’t make us better than the rest of the world, it’s our humanity that connects us there is a larger ecosystem that governs us above any government that we need to respect. Disrespecting the earth, other countries, and other people will always come back to us.

With businesses being closed and global tourism coming to a halt, it’s fascinating to see the earth healing - from Italy’s waterways clearing up to America’s cities having clearer air than ever - capitalism truly proves to be the real epidemic to the earth. When the earth suffers and when we act like none of the pain and bad energy in the world will affect us, the universe reminds us we’re just human and we don’t have control over everything. In fact, we have less control over our lives than we even think if an invisible pathogen can uproot our entire everyday life. Lastly, we’re reminded of the importance of technology as something we’re seriously leaning into at a time like this. To keep us connected, keep us productive, and keep us informed, our technology is proving to more valuable than ever and it’s something that will grow as the peope socially distance but virtually come together.

The universe really needed to check us - for me this is such an important and necessary time for people to slow down, reflect, and think about what really matters. Our collective humanity. We have more in common than we do differences, and it’s literally impossible for one person or country to be better than another because we are all human and have the same fundamental needs of food, shelter, and healthcare. Any country that doesn’t provide those basic needs for their people can hardly be considered ‘first world.’ When billionaires retreat to their well-stocked and isolated homes, while the rest of us struggle to pay our bills and put food on the table - what does that say about us? Are we willing to accept and live in a world like this? Does any person really deserve healthcare more than another simply because of their economic status? To me, these things are what’s truly terrifying, not the virus itself but the scary truths it reveals about our society.

Personally, like I said I feel like I’m feeling these things on a deeper level now that I’ve moved out and am more aware of what it means to earn a living and the costs of life. I’m in an extremely privileged position, but I’m using that really consider how this affects different people and what it can teach me for the rest of my life.

1. Saving money is everything. You can work your entire life away and your company will lay you off no matter what you’ve done for them, and if you’re old and in need your government will say ‘sorry buddy good luck!’ Individualism kills, but that’s why getting your money right and having emergency savings is more important than anything else! This has taught me to prioritize having some seriously hefty savings before I book another trip or buy something I don’t actually need. My parents often tell me to not “spend like an American,” buying things I don’t need or simply want but don’t actually have the money for. I used to roll my eyes at this, but actually understanding the economic hardships they’ve lived through and the experiences that shape their views helps me realize the truth behind it. The American middle class is the biggest trap ever and can make you feel secure when you’re actually not unless you seriously save money and have it in multiple places. Capitalism perpeutes an endless cycle of desire and making you feel like you always need more, but when it all goes to shit, what will you have and be left with?

2. We need to slow down and tap into our collective conciousness more than ever. Maybe actually think about what other people are going through rather than centering yourself all the time. Other people exist and matter as much as you do, and your actions affect things and have a chain reaction. Not just right now, but always. Anything that affects another human being or harms someone else affects you, too because we’re all connected more than we realize. Energetically and literally! Humanity is an ecosystem, and when one part is hurting or damaged, it will eventually affect everything. The world is more connected than ever and we have to realize this, no matter how much media/politics tries to pit groups against each other and create divisions, we are all literally the same. And everyone deserves to live, no matter who they are and what resources they do or don’t have. We are all more interconnected and we need each other. People cannot continue acting selfishly and greedily the way they have been - our lives depend on the actions of other people and we need each other. We should really start acting like it.

3. The world literally cannot go on if we keep consuming and producing things the way we are. After this event, more poeple will work and go to school remotely, which is great because it results in less traffic, less pollution, and it’s better for many people with mental health issues or disabilities! But there are still serious considerations we have to make about what it means that the earth is finally getting a chance to breathe since we’re large businesses are shutting down. When it comes to travel, tourism, and economics, climate change is literally at the center of all of those issues. This is a manifestation of the earth having enough of our shit to be honest, and I wish more conversations were happening about that right now. The earth is a part of us and we are a part of it, and when it’s hurting that will catch up to us and hurt us back.

I suppose that’s all I have for now, but like I said there is so much to unpack but many useful conversations to be had around this current issue as we’re starting to see it’s effects on our world. I know that personally I’m at a huge privilege to be safe, healthy, have shelter and food, and be with someone I love right now. I hope by sharing this, I’ll spark some thoughts or simply have them to refer back to in the future when this is all behind us. The situation may pass eventually, but we shouldn’t forget what it’s desperately calling on us to shift our attention to. I’m honestly loving this extra down time, that we unfortunately don’t get enough, to simply be human and enjoy the company of our loved ones, sleeping in, having more time for our hobbies, or even doing nothing, as it’s necessary for humans to do sometimes! I hope this results in a shift in our collective conciousness that is desperately needed, but for me it’s affirming a lot of important things I already knew but needed to bring to the forefront of my mind. It’s easy to get overwhelmed right now and there’s a lot of change to adjust to, but the lessons the universe is sending us are invaluable right now and it’s imperative for people to think for themselves and think really critically about what’s happening, both for others and ourselves.

#words #personal #growth #coronavirus #humanity #conciousness #covid19 #2020 #self relfection

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khalilhumam · 5 years ago

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Resilience in Developing Nations

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/resilience-in-developing-nations/

Resilience in Developing Nations

Vital Interests: Thank you for participating in the Vital Interests forum. You have worked for many years in the field of international development and witnessed many changes. Can you provide an overview of the wellbeing of people in developing nations and how their prospects have changed in the past decades? Nancy Birdsall: There have been huge changes for the good for most people in the developing world. If we look back, even just 30 years to the early 1990s, the story of development is one of amazing success in several dimensions, of millions of people living better lives, as my colleague Charles Kenny at the Center for Global Development documents. You have a dramatic increase in life expectancy due to access to health care. We now have a world where almost every child goes to primary school. There is better access to prenatal and maternity care so far fewer women have to worry when they're pregnant that they're literally going to die in the process of having a child. Infant and child mortality have been declining for decades. According to UN statistics, since the 1990s there has been a 36% reduction in the percentage of the world’s population living in extreme poverty, which is below $1.90 a day. This is a substantial achievement and gives hope that ending extreme poverty is within reach. These are all meaningful successes. Some emerging nations like China and India accomplished impressive development with relatively little aid from rich countries. Other developing countries, especially in public health, benefited thanks to globally managed and coordinated campaigns -- for example, the near-elimination of polio and recent reductions of malaria prevalence. In this moment of a terrible pandemic, it is worth noting how important globally coordinated programs have been, particularly in combating infectious diseases. Those are great stories of development success. The coronavirus is the poster child for the need for global cooperation, a fast moving, hard to ignore version of what equally catastrophic climate change already is for poor countries. Corona and climate: when one country is exposed, all countries are in the end exposed. Despite the advances made in the past decades, there is still much work to be done. While most children in the world have access to schooling, in South Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa as many as two-thirds of children cannot read more than a sentence or two when they finish primary school. Consider the poverty issue. Most working people in the developing world do not have stable, paystub jobs. They are informal workers, like the gig economy workers in the U.S., or those who run mom and pop small businesses. Informal workers make up 60% of the labor force in Mexico, and 80% in “middle-income” countries like Indonesia and Ghana. They are not the “extreme poor” living on $1.90 a day (the World Bank definition of extreme poor), but neither are they members of anything close to the middle class by Western standards. They are a group of vulnerable, near-poor “strugglers” between the very poor and the stable, materially secure middle class – in households with income of at least $10 a day per person, or about $7,000 a year for a family of three or four. Defined that way, the middle class in the developing world is still small – in Africa and South Asia making up less than 20 percent of the population in most countries. Even a small shock in these near-poor households, one person losing a job or a child needing hospital care, will drive you right back close to or below poverty. These are people on the wrong side of the dividing line that now is so exposed in the U.S. with the coronavirus, between people who have a steady income and can work from home, and people who depend on contract and freelance work - Uber drivers, Walmart and McDonalds workers whose work shifts are uncertain, and the whole community of local performing artists. There are two ways to look at progress in the developing world context. I think the right way to look at it is that there has been tremendous success. The downside is that, as we see with the threat of COVID as well as the risk of more natural disasters because of climate change, that they and the economies in which they live and work, are vulnerable - lacking resilience, obviously, especially now. In this moment of a terrible pandemic, it is worth noting how important globally coordinated programs have been, particularly in combating infectious diseases. Those are great stories of development success. That is also a political issue in that you now have millions and millions of people in developing nations who have moved out of $1.90 a day poverty during the last several decades, entering the better-off but hardly secure in-between or struggler group. They have expectations of further mobility, for them and their children, and will be frustrated and angry with the setback a global recession is bringing, threatening their hard-fought gains. The only other thing I'd say about development is the deeper question of how you build political and social institutions that can provide the kind of resilience that we used to take for granted in the U.S. but is now, with our weak social safety net, exposed. With COVID19 in America we are mirroring many of the problems of developing countries, including the reality that many families that appear reasonably secure are in fact extremely vulnerable economically. VI: The vulnerabilities for the developing world as the COVID pandemic deepens include public health but also widespread economic distress. With no safety net, what will be the most immediate needs of the populations of developing nations - medical care, clean water, adequate food supplies? Nancy Birdsall: Well, the needs are all the above. The fundamental problem in most developing countries is lack of fiscal space and so lack of resources to suddenly equip their health centers and hospitals with oxygen and ventilators for intensive care facilities and PPE for their workers; and lack of resources simply to maintain current levels of spending on health, education, and other services, and to increase spending on direct cash transfers to households. They cannot do the monetary policy equivalent of the Federal Reserve, creating dollars (some big emerging market economies have access to “swap lines” the U.S. Federal Reserve has created but most do not and none of the poorest countries do). They cannot finance the equivalent of the U.S. CARES Act, covering unemployment pay and providing $1200 for every adult under a certain income. With exports down, remittances down, and many countries paying high levels of debt service in dollars, they cannot increase spending as the US and the Europeans are doing without risking financial instability and inflation as their currencies weaken. It is terrifying to see the difference between the ability of the rich countries to ramp up spending – with the United States increasing spending by more than 10 percent of GDP – and now the European Union considering issuing its own debt to help its weakest economies weather the storm-- compared to the plight of most developing countries. Pity the poor finance ministers in developing countries. So, they need huge amounts of financial assistance from outside (the IMF and the United Nations have called for $2.5 trillion at least), including via temporary or permanent debt relief, to protect their populations in the first instance from daily hunger. Financial assistance that is not traditional aid, in project-by-project form with specific conditions and specific blueprints about disbursements, but rather block grants to central governments, to shore up beleaguered health systems and put money in the pockets of poor and vulnerable people, ideally in the form of cash. Some developing countries are capable of expanding already existing and successful cash transfer programs. Mexico, Brazil and other countries in Latin America have pre-existing programs targeted to the poor that they can expand and deepen during the crisis. India and Pakistan have impressive digital ID systems – in India the “Aadhar” system has a billion of their 1.3 billion people registered. In principle, they could do a universal basic income transfer through that ID system but most countries don't have the fiscal resources to do that in any way that's comparable to the quick cash distribution (the $1200 per person) that the U.S. CARES ACT has financed. Some countries have good health care systems. At the time of the Ebola crisis I was in Liberia and Ebola jumped to Nigeria and it was impressive how quickly the Nigerians got on top of it. It made me remember that we have a lot of competent Nigerian doctors here in the United States. There are millions of capable health care workers in most developing countries managing their public health institutions. The problem is, as it has been here in the US, that health systems can be quickly overwhelmed. But most developing countries face short-term and long-term problems if the virus takes hold. As in the United States, there is also the problem of pre-existing inequalities, of access to health care and inequality of income in general – along racial, ethnic, and gender lines (women are at greater risk everywhere, including to domestic violence). That means the pandemic creates a political risk too, of social instability. I hope the whole question of how to construct better social safety nets will become more prominent given the pandemic has exposed the reality of vulnerability of so many people, and so the importance of safety nets and the need to build systems of social protection. VI: What about the global food supply chain? Many nations depend on the importation of key grains at accessible prices. Nancy Birdsall: The concern is a nationalist response, countries that produce staples like rice and wheat imposing export controls to keep prices down at home. That would be a disaster. There is no food supply problem on the production side, but restrictions on exports could lead to panic and price spikes in the global market as in 2008 – that would be a disaster for the poor around the world. Vietnam has imposed some restrictions on exports of rice, as have a few other countries on other staples, but so far restrictions have been limited and availability of food at a reasonable price is not the problem. The real problem now is loss of daily income for millions of poor people in developing countries, the money to buy not just calories derived from staples, but healthy calories – vegetables, fruit, proteins, especially for children. It's having the money to buy food, not the overall global scarcity that is a threat. It is the demand-side problem, basically, with the effects of the lockdowns. Of course, with lockdowns there is also likely to be local disruption of supply chains. What we've been reading about in the U.S., about shortages of meat, is carried to an extreme in developing countries where so many people rely on local, open markets. The social distancing and stay at home restrictions really upset these markets. VI: Where will the leadership come from to meet these real challenges? UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is calling for $8 to $9 billion dollars to help aid nations impacted by the pandemic. The likelihood that he will be able to secure this level of funding is probably slim. Where does this financial wherewithal and leadership come from to support pandemic relief efforts? Nancy Birdsall: The financial wherewithal must come from the international financial institutions, our multilateral institutions. Not just the IMF and the World Bank, but also the regional banks, including the African Development Bank, that can increase their grants and lending given the situation. I think the biggest problem for the world right now is that there's not the accustomed leadership from the United States – and there’s no single influential alternative. For most of my lifetime I took U.S. leadership for granted. There's a lot of discussion going on now about how much more funding the IMF should have to work with. Ideally the IMF would get members’ approval for a new issue of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and the World Bank and the multilateral banks to leverage more of their capital to allow for more lending. Debt relief is also on the table; the G20 ministerial meeting in April agreed in principle on a standstill of debt service for developing countries by all official bilateral creditors. In the end, the decisions in the multilateral institutions are driven by their powerful members. I think the biggest problem for the world right now is that there's not the accustomed leadership from the United States – and there’s no single influential alternative. For most of my lifetime I took U.S. leadership for granted. That means a need for more vocal and public support for the multilateral institutions, including of course the WHO, the IMF and the multilateral development banks. We need a movement in countries, especially in the U.S. and Europe about what it means to be not just a citizen of your own country, but a global citizen. We must educate our children about the logic of international cooperation in a totally interdependent global system. The coronavirus is the poster child for the need for global cooperation, a fast moving, hard to ignore version of what equally catastrophic climate change already is for poor countries. Corona and climate: when one country is exposed, all countries are in the end exposed. VI: The COVID pandemic has led to questioning the offshoring of supply chains. When essential medical equipment is foreign-sourced, getting adequate supplies in an immediate time frame is a challenge. The U.S. trade representative is proposing policies to encourage “reshoring” of manufacturing, to provide more jobs for Americans and more secure supply chains. Is it feasible for, say textile industries, to relocate back to the United States from countries like India, Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam? Nancy Birdsall: It's hard to imagine how easily and quickly industries can pull back. The first thing to say is that the reaction in the U.S. to globalization and the fact that it is perceived as the cause of many societal problems is understandable. But we also have to keep in mind it's been a good thing for developing countries. A really good thing. And that at the heart of the problem in the US is not globalization itself but the stagnation of the median wage, our growing inequality, and our grossly underfunded social safety net. Prosperity in developing countries is a kind of global public good – a good thing for rich countries too. When more countries are prosperous and stable that contributes to security in the global community. Prosperity in developing countries is a kind of global public good – a good thing for rich countries too. When more countries are prosperous and stable that contributes to security in the global community. The anti-globalization sentiment has been building up, especially since the global financial crisis in 2008. I feel the world is now in an unstable equilibrium between this nationalist protectionist instinct, which the Trump administration has emboldened other nations to take, and the realities of decades of global interdependence which, though imperfect, have contributed to the growth and development successes we talked about at the beginning. VI: For years a mantra in international development has been sustainable development, which has to do with the ability of countries to manage growth in a way that protects the rights of their populations and preserves their environment. Will that be jeopardized as this pandemic impacts development policies? Nancy Birdsall: I hope not but I don't know. It depends so much on international cooperation, and at the moment that seems in short supply. Does the world become more protectionist, more nationalist, more populist? Or does it lean, through some excellent leadership from somewhere, toward more cooperation? Climate change is hitting developing countries hard – the typhoon in Bangladesh and Kolkata, India; the locusts in Kenya; recurrent drought in southern Africa. More and more rich country aid will be going to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. The world has done badly on climate change, and like COVID19, it is the poor and vulnerable that are hit the hardest, exacerbating pre-existing inequalities and injustices. It is a problem with the sovereign system and human nature to fail to take adequately into account what is changing slowly and seen as a distant threat. Maybe the pandemic will be a wake-up call on climate change. The world still looks for leadership on global issues to the United States. The U.S. is still the leader of last resort. On that I still have hope. Our election this fall is not only about the future of the US. It’s about the future of the world. VI: We're coming to the end of the time. Thank you for this interesting conversation on the developing world and how the COVID pandemic emergency will impact it. Also you have talked about the opportunities that this pandemic may, in fact, bring to the fore about the pressing need to confront global challenges - certainly climate change is a priority for global cooperation. Let's hope that that can be the positive outcome to this dire episode confronting the global community. Nancy Birdsall: Very well said. This post originally appeared on Vital Interests, a blog from the Center on National Security at Fordham Law.

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