#but it’s not too late. i could make 2024 into 2019 2 the sequel to 2019.

[ghostzzy]

longing for 2019

[crowdvscritic]

round up // JUNE 24

This post is late 'cause I'm a writer, Though Austin Butler's cute in The Bikeriders, Who didn’t have time for post creation Before my big summer vacation. And it marks the 12th year Of this little blog now. With a 283rd post, I’ve know I got it down. Too bad anxiety don't do it for ya, John Wayne, he dream came trued it for ya, Bad Boys rebooted up for ya. Now I’m singin' Sabrina all night, oh, Is it that sweet? I guess so. Type it up, down, left, right, oh, Switch it up like Nintendo. Crowd vs. Critic, I know That's that me espresso

June Crowd-Pleasers

1. Bad Boys: Ride or Die (2024)

The fourth Bad Boys is functioning on three levels: 

It reminds us just how fun buddy cop comedies can be.

It’s a soft reboot of the franchise. 

It’s testing the waters for Will Smith’s future.

Read my full review for ZekeFilm. Crowd: 8.5/10 // Critic: 7/10

2. “Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter (2024)

It may be technically too early to call the race for Song of the Summer, but it’s going to take a major earworm to dethrone Sabrina Carpenter’s caffeinated pop hit for me. I’ve started playing it on repeat and daydreaming dance routines while driving—is it that sweet? I guess so.

3. Inside Out 2 (2024)

This sequel works because t’s a logical next step for Riley’s growth, but also because of its precision in identifying the competing emotions of middle school. That’s a lovely subversion of the neat endings in most family entertainment, and like most every Pixar entry, it did make me cry. Read my full review for ZekeFilm. Crowd: 9/10 // Critic: 8.5/10

4. Anxious People by Fredrik Backman (2019)

The narrator—a cousin of Arrested Development's—informs us this is a story about a bank robbery gone wrong. It’s also a story about realtors, falling in love, rabbits, therapy sessions, bedroom closets, police work, bridges, and strange coincidences. It’s a laugh-out-loud ensemble (with some scenes so non sequitur I could imagine them in the best Adam McKay movies) and a sentimental rom-com (with some scenes reminiscent of Nora Ephron’s tone). 

5. Behind Enemy Lines (2001)

This action movie based on a true story more than lives up to its title. When Owen Wilson’s cocky Navy pilot gets caught, yes, behind enemy lines, he then, yes, has to go through a Top Gun-inspired arc. But neither Wilson nor Gene Hackman are phoning in what could’ve been a paint-by-numbers war film, which makes it both thrilling and poignant. Crowd: 9/10 // Critic: 7.5/10

MORE JUNE CROWD-PLEASERS // House Rules by Myquillyn Smith (2023) isn’t the restricting guide the title suggests but a collection of 100 decorating inspirations // Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (2006) and Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues (2013) make me miss Adam McKay’s true comedy days, when his political views made his jokes more poignant instead of overwhelming the intent of his script // Poms (2019) is a fun entry in the recent trend of Older Screen Lady Legends Doing It For Themselves subgenre (See also: 80 for Brady) // I.S.S. (2023) is more thoughtful than a junkie space thriller needs to be // In the Land of Saint and Sinners (2023) is a classic Western that just happens to be set in Ireland // Snack Shack (2024) is more crass than I prefer, but what works has American Graffiti vibes

June Critic Picks

1. The Bikeriders (2024)

It’s like Austin Butler overheard Robert Redford say, “Paul Newman and I are the handsomest white men who have ever been on screen,” and he said, “Hold my comb.” Butler knows he’s beautiful, and so does writer/director Jeff Nichols, who based The Bikeriders on a book of photography. Nichols also knows how cool guys in leather jackets look while smoking and riding motorcycles (even if we consciously know all of those things are dangerous clichés) and that it takes someone as gorgeous as Butler to make us believe a skeptical woman like Jodie Comer’s Kathy would sell her soul to have him. It’s one of best films of the year so far, and you can hear more thoughts in my review on KTRS's Carney Show. Crowd: 8/10 // Critic: 9.5/10

2. Double Feature - ‘40s Rom-Coms With With Political Twists: Without Reservations (1946) + State of the Union (1948)

In Frank Capra’s State of the Union (Crowd: 7.5/10 // Critic: 8.5/10), Spencer Tracy is considering running for President of the United States with the help of lover Angela Lansbury and to the chagrin of wife Katharine Hepburn. In Mervyn LeRoy’s Without Reservations (8/10 // 8.5/10), famous author Claudette Colbert is road-tripping incognito (much like she did in It Happened One Night) after falling hard for returning soldier John Wayne. In both romances, politics are the force driving apart the couples we’re rooting for, and in Reservations, you also get a perfect rom-com BFF in Don DeFore. 

3. The Cross of Lorraine (1943)

About the same time Casablanca came out, Peter Lorre played a supporting role in another World War II adventure filmed as people were escaping the Nazis in real life. This French POW drama (also co-starring Gene Kelly) walked so that Steve McQueen could jump that motorcycle in The Great Escape. Crowd: 7.5/10 // Critic: 8/10

4. Broadcast News (1987)

What’s a girl to do when she has no time to write a valedictorian speech? And what’s a girl to do when she has to choose between two terrible love interests while working in the world of TV journalism? In ep. 140 of SO IT’S A SHOW?, Kayla and I are digging into the ‘80s romantic dramedy Broadcast News and trying to figure out what the hey it has to do with Rory’s graduation in Gilmore Girls. Why is Lorelai comparing Rory to Holly Hunter? What ethical controversy (if you can even call it that) could make Holly Hunter break up with a dreamy news anchor? And how much do we love The Incredibles? Listen in for a special report on all of these stories.

5. Fancy Dance (2023)

Part mystery, part character drama, all Lily Gladstone star power. Fancy Dance overlaps in plot and theme with Killers of the Flower Moon, but Gladstone has created a completely different character stuck in a world of crime and custody battles. Watch my full review on KMOV. Crowd: 7/10 // Critic: 8.5/10

Also in June…

I reviewed Janet Planet for ZekeFilm, which was the opposite of Snack Shack: On paper it's a film I should've loved, but I didn't care for the execution.

Photo credits: Anxious People. All others IMDb.com.

[riskhedge]

Disney Will Hit $170 Next Year

By Stephen McBride

On April 12, Disney (DIS) took a massive leap. The stock jumped 12% in a single day:

Big, safe stocks like Disney don’t often move 5% in a day, let alone 12%.

And Disney isn’t a small, medium, or even large company. It is a giant company. It’s the 18th-biggest publicly traded American company—bigger than Coca Cola, McDonald’s, and Wells Fargo.

Let me explain what’s happening here.

Disney’s Leap Happened on Its “Big Reveal”

Disney announced details of its new streaming service, Disney+, which will compete with Netflix.

If you’ve been reading RiskHedge, you know that I’ve been pounding the table to buy Disney stock for this very reason since last July.

My thesis was simple.

Netflix pioneered “streaming” where you watch shows through the internet rather than on cable TV. For years, it was the only streaming game in town. Early investors rode this first-mover advantage to 10,000% gains from 2008 to July of last year.

But nothing lasts forever. As I explained in my latest special report, disruptive companies go through cycles. Download The Great Disruptors report to find out my favorite disruptor stocks for 2019. Netflix is now what I call a “disruptor in decline.”

In short, big media giants like Disney were asleep when Netflix introduced streaming. It took years, but Disney has finally gathered itself and is fighting back.

Unfortunately for Netflix, It’s Not a Fair Fight

Disney is far and away the king of producing movies and TV shows people want to watch.

It owns Marvel, which is the most profitable movie franchise in history.

You’ve likely seen TV commercials lately for the spectacle that is Avengers Endgame.

It’s set to be the biggest moneymaker yet. Overall, it should surpass $2 billion in ticket sales. 

Overall, it should surpass $2 billion in ticket sales.

Two billion dollars is still a lot of money. Netflix (NFLX) doesn’t collect two billion dollars in a whole month, let alone on a single movie!

Disney also owns Star Wars, which is the second most profitable movie franchise in history.

It owns Pixar Animation Studios, which continues to pump out moneymaking sequels to hits like Monsters, Inc., The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, and Toy Story.

It owns National Geographic, The Simpsons... not to mention all the traditional characters like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.

For Netflix, going up against Disney in a content war is just not a fair fight. It’s like a little league team taking on the New York Yankees.

To start, Disney+ will have 7,500 television shows and 500 movies, including practically every film your children and grandchildren will want to watch.

And Disney’s entire 2019 film slate will stream only on Disney+. It won’t be on Netflix.

So folks who miss Avengers Endgame in theaters will have to subscribe to Disney+ to stream it at home. The same goes for upcoming Disney hits Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2.

Disney Has Mastered the Art of Producing Profitable Blockbusters

Since 2012, 11 of the 16 highest-grossing movies in the world have been Disney productions.

Six of these 11 were Marvel movies.

Disney has never lost money on a Marvel movie, or even come close. Every superhero flick it produces is a sure bet to make hundreds of millions at a minimum.

You won’t be surprised to learn that six more Marvel movies are in the works.

How Much Would You Pay to Make Your Kids Happy?

How about $6.99/month?

That’s all Disney+ will cost. That’s less than half the cost of Netflix’s most popular plan.

Can you imagine how many parents will sign up? At seven bucks a month, what family with kids under 12 won’t subscribe?

Back in November, I Put a $170/share Price Target on Disney

The stock is already halfway there. I see it reaching $170 within 12 months. Within 3–5 years, it could easily double from today’s price of $135.

Streaming gives Disney a whole new way to monetize its movies and TV shows. Disney estimates Disney+ will have 60–90 million paying subscribers by 2024.

That works out to 12 million new subscribers a year for the next five years. That’s easily achievable. In fact, I predict Disney will beat it. Netflix has added an average of 20 million subscribers a year since 2014. Disney has far better content and costs half as much.

The case for Disney gets even better when you consider that it owns America’s #1 sports network, ESPN. It also owns a controlling stake in the fastest-growing streaming service, Hulu.

My research suggests it can attract another 90 million paying subscribers with these services, too.

Altogether, Disney should be collecting around $16 billion/year from streaming by 2024—up from zero today.

Another great thing about streaming is it allows Disney to cut out middlemen and retain more profit. That’s yet another reason Disney is a great buy at today’s price.