#but honestly it’s more like I haven’t gone home for thanksgiving since 2019

[mass-convergence]

Frequent caller to the office: “and what are you doing this thanksgiving?”

Me: “I’m off work at 7 am so … sleeping?”

I forgot how absolutely sad and depressing that sounds to people who actually celebrate Thanksgiving. I didn’t want her to feel bad for me I swear I just don’t celebrate this holiday.

[violetwolfraven]

41 for javid would work so perfectly ahfkfjxhsga and/or 34, whichever one u want 🥺🥺🥺

I was scared to come out and ask you out because I didn’t know our entire friend group was gay but I definitely know now???

and

We broke up but I found the letters you wrote me before that and I still love you so wanna get back together? (did I copy this from one specific fic I read? Possibly.)

Ok! Buckle in your seatbelts, y’all! This is gonna be a MASSIVELY LONG THING! Also @61-flaming-sour-cherry-scones I love your url. Just getting that out there. Modern AU, btw. Also does this end in December, 2019, conveniently avoiding COVID? Possibly! :)

...

Jack didn’t mean to find that box, but in his defense, it was not hidden well. Just in the back of his closet, which he hadn’t cleaned out since... damn. Since the breakup.

And Jack was fine with said breakup, by the way. Him and Davey weren’t right together anymore.

And Jack didn’t smile less, or work himself harder as a distraction, or whatever bullshit his brothers, mom, and all his friends said.

If Davey never texted first anymore, or barely even talked when friends asked him to hang out or whatever, that was none of Jack’s business.

Jack had texted Davey exactly once since the breakup, because Elmer had told him that he had an anxiety attack in a bar, which he was only there in the first place because he was designated driver.

Davey had said he was fine, and that meant he was, right?

Davey had not mentioned anything about leaving a shoebox in Jack’s closet. As a matter of fact, he hadn’t mentioned it, ever.

Did it sting that Jack’s ex had kept a secret box of... something? from him? Maybe. Whatever the case, Jack was curious by nature, and he was definitely opening the box.

It was... letters? Sealed letters in envelopes, the earliest one on the very top, in one corner of the box. The only thing written on it was a date; September 7th, 2011.

That would be... 8th grade? Probably the first day of school? Jack was super confused. Still, he opened the letter.

Dear Jack Kelly,

I know this is terrible and corny and I’m probably going to shred this letter with the pocket knife Sarah got for our last birthday, but I had to write it down somewhere.

I think I’m gay. Specifically, gay for you. And I know that’s weird, I can’t stop thinking about you. You’re like the living personification of the moon. (Not the sun. I’ve never understood why people compare their crush to the sun. Nobody likes looking directly at that.) You saw me sitting alone before school and you took me in. I mean it. You brought me over to your friend group and said I was a new kid who was going to be your friend now, and the whole group just adopted me without questioning it. All of you are so nice. At first I thought it was a trick, but then I saw you comforting Blink when he had a panic attack. (Also, I’m still getting used to the nickname thing. That’s still weird and I’m not sure how I feel about the one you gave me.) You were so gentle with him, Jack. You knew exactly how to calm him down and you were so patient with him while you helped Mush drive the fear away. I didn’t think boys our age knew how to be like that. I do now, because of you. Well, and because of Race being, well, Race. I don’t think anyone could mistake him for a bully. Or Crutchie. Or Romeo. Heck, most of your group is just so nice I can barely believe it. I think I’ll bring Saz to meet you tomorrow. She already made a friend, but she said that this girl, Katherine, said she already knows you. Maybe we can all be friends.

I really wish we could be more, but I know that would never work. I can’t tell anyone I’m gay. You’d think I’m a freak. But since you’ll never read this, I can admit it here: I have a massive crush on you, Jack Kelly.

Sincerely, David Davey

Jack was not going to let himself cry about a letter written in 8th fucking grade. He was, however, very confused about why it was in his closet.

A letter from before Davey was out of the closet found in the closet. If Jack wasn’t so goddamn depressed, he would appreciate the irony.

The next letter was dated: September 24th, 2011.

Dear Jack,

We’re all friends now. Gotta say, I already can’t imagine my life without you and the other guys. And maybe I didn’t meet Kath that first day, but she’s probably my best friend, besides you, of course. She’s the only other one with brain cells, besides maybe Specs. Us three had to talk you and the others out of riding a shopping cart Albert stole from Walmart down a hill yesterday. Honestly, would it kill you to be a little smarter? I know for a fact you can be, Jack Kelly. You and the others actually have a fair amount of brain cells each when apart. It’s only when the only group gets together that you all do stupid stuff.

I didn’t shred the first letter. I think maybe I’ll keep these and we can look back someday and laugh about me having a crush on you in middle school. Don’t worry. I’ll find a way to get over it before it ruins our friendship.

I honestly don’t see how I’d survive losing you, Jack. So, please, do me a favor and keep being oblivious to how I really feel about you until I digest those butterflies you give me.

Sincerely, Davey

Damn. Reading that was like a punch to the chest and Jack had to take a deep breath before moving on to the next letter.

The next few were just mundane stuff. Little notes on how Jack laughed or interacted with certain friends or whatever. The way he painted each friend something little for the holidays and how they all had a picnic potluck for Thanksgiving.

Then he got to one that was different: January 22nd, 2012. It was written in a panicked, hurried script.

Oh, damn. Jack remembered what this was about. What happened January of 8th grade.

Dear Jack,

Something’s wrong. You’re on my couch right now, crying. I don’t know what’s going on, but you’re trying to put on a brave face for Les and failing miserably. Medda didn’t have time to say much when she dropped you, Crutchie, Race, and Romeo off, so all I really know is that Blink is in the hospital and she’s gonna pick up Mush before going to see him. Crutchie is trying to comfort you, by the way, but he’s crying nearly as much as you are. Race and Ro are in shock, I think. They haven’t said much. Sarah’s making them hot cocoa. I’m in my room, writing this really quick because I don’t know what I can do. You’re so good at comforting people, but I don’t know how. I wish I knew how you did it. I think I’ll go try one of the things I’ve seen you do with panic attacks. It’s got to be better than nothing.

The rest was calmer, clearly written later.

It turns out Blink is in the hospital because his dad put him there. And he wouldn’t be alive at all if he didn’t call Mush in a panic right when he heard him get home. Mush called the cops and they barely got there in time. Blink was already half-dead when they did, but they managed to keep him alive long enough to get an ambulance. God, I don’t want to think about what would’ve happened if they’d been just a little bit slower.

Medda called you a couple hours ago to let us all know that Blink is in bad shape, but he’s gonna be okay. She’s gonna try to file for custody of him, but Mush’s mom is gonna try, too, just to give him twice as much chance of staying with us. His dad is in jail, but you and me agree that he deserves to die for what he did. In the selfie Blink made Mush send the group chat, there was more bandage visible on his face than skin. It made me so damn angry, but I didn’t show it because you were so angry you almost punched a hole in my wall.

I’ve made a decision, Jack. I can’t be separate from the group anymore. I always hang with Kath off to the side where we can intervene as the voices of reason if needed, but I’m not going to do that anymore, because I. can. not. do this again. I want our friends to trust me like they trust you so maybe if one of them is in a house with a dad that would beat them within an inch of their life, they’ll tell me and I can get them out.

I guess that means I’ll have to get better at lying. I’ve been staying separate mostly to hide my crush. And I think I’m pretty good at that, but being right at the center of things, with you? I’ll have to be careful to make sure no one notices. Especially not you. I hope I can pull it off.

You definitely aren’t making it easy on me, are you? You’re passed out in my bed, for heaven’s sake. But it’s fine. This is fine. I’m fine.

Sincerely, Davey

Jack remembered that night as one of the worst of his life. He’d thought Blink was dead by how Mush sounded when he called. And even though it turned out he wasn’t, he was going to be okay even if he lost an eye, after Jack’s childhood, he’d always hated when he couldn’t protect the people he loved.

Davey had been the one to reach him in that bad place he fell back to, the one where people he loved, kids he considered his little brothers, were getting hurt. Davey had pulled him out of there, and though it would take Jack months to realize it, that was the day he started to fall in love with him.

The next Monday, though, Jack had tried to give him space. Knowing how intimidating it all had to seem, he wasn’t sure if Davey would bail on them.

But he didn’t. Jack had never stopped appreciating how Davey had seen the darkness under the innocent, normal friendship and stayed anyway.

The next few letters were mostly a lot of pining on Davey’s side as he struggled to integrate himself more deeply into the group.

Jack still remembered that shift, how once Davey earned the others’ trust, Jack had gone from being the only one everyone was relying on to half of a pair that a lot of their friends had jokingly called ‘mom and dad.’

It was kind of sad, knowing that for most of them, Jack and Davey gave them more love and attention than their actual parents did, but the two of them would have to do—and they had. For a long time, the two of them were an unstoppable duo of hugs and snacks and homework help.

The letter from June 15th, 2012, had weird spots on it, almost like... almost like tear-marks. It was shorter than the previous ones.

Dear Jack,

Saz just came bouncing into my room to announce that she’s going with you to the Eighth Grade Dance.

I don’t know why I’m sad about it. I knew you and me would never be a thing.

But it still hurts, Jackie. It hurts so much.

I’m going with the rest of the group, just as friends. No one has dates except you, and I think maybe Romeo.

Jack knew for a fact that Blink and Mush had gone together because he remembered accidentally walking in on their first kiss, but apparently, Davey hadn’t known that.

Les is knocking on my door, so I’m gonna have to drop my math textbook on the floor really loudly so I can tell him I’m crying because I fell.

Sincerely, Davey

There wasn’t another letter until 4 months later, Octobe 16th, 2012.

Dear Jack,

So. Something weird just happened. Saz just came into my room and said she’s not going with you to Homecoming because you’re going with Kath. I tried to comfort her, but she didn’t seem sad about it?

She asked me if I wanted to go with anyone and seemed surprised I said I didn’t. (Not like I’m telling her a part of me wishes I could go with you.) Then she mentioned that Blink and Mush are going together, and I don’t see why she cares because if you don’t have a date why not go with a friend, right? Why do girls have to be so confusing?

Sincerely, Davey

Oh. Oh, God.

By the beginning of freshman year, Blink and Mush hadn’t been the only gay couple in their friend group.

Albert and Finch had gotten together over the summer, and so had Smalls and Sniper.

Romeo and Specs were in the ‘flirting terribly’ phase, and though Jack didn’t know it at the time, Race was already sneaking around with Spot by that point.

Ike had asked Hotshot to that Homecoming, though they wouldn’t officially become boyfriends until almost a year later, Buttons and Elmer became official at that dance, and Jojo and Mike had that falling out because of misread signals towards the end of it.

Hell, Jack only went to that dance with Kath because she couldn’t let her parents know she was actually going with Saz.

Homecoming freshman year was... eventful, to say the least.

And Davey had known exactly none of this. That... explained a lot.

Being only freshmen, none of the couples were exactly casual in their relationships. They didn’t kiss in front of people, and a few were too embarrassed to so much as sit next to each other at lunch. With the ones who weren’t embarrassed, it still honestly wasn’t much more than the affection they all already showed among friends.

God, if Jack had known how scared Davey was to come out, as he said in the next few letters, he would have... what? Told him he loved him right then and there? Probably not, but he would have done something differently.

The next really significant letter was dated December 11th 12th, 2012.

Dear Jack,

I have no idea what to think.

I’m in the bathroom right now, and it’s just after midnight on 12/12/12. You and your brothers threw a party in case the world ended with the whole friend group. It was kind of like a New Year’s party, but with a lot more cynical talk about the coming apocalypse and bet placing on what said apocalypse would be. Towards the end, we all got caught up in the drama and sleep-deprivation and started giving speeches about how much we loved each other. It was cringy, but in a good way? I’m sure we’ll laugh about it someday.

Or maybe we won’t. Because I have no idea what to think anymore.

Oh, shit. This was the part Jack was kind of dreading reading.

I’ve been terrified to come out because I thought I’d get kicked out of the group if you guys knew I was gay.

Which was why it was such a shock when the countdown to midnight ended and half my friends kissed friends of the same gender.

Jack remembered yelling at them to break it up. He’d been so busy being exasperated with his kids that he hadn’t even noticed Davey had slipped away until Crutchie pointed it out.

It was quick, so I don’t think I could name all the pairs if I tried, but I definitely saw Sarah kiss Kath, which, honestly, explains a lot.

I can’t help but wonder... Why didn’t anyone tell me? How long has this been going on? Has it been since the beginning and I was just too oblivious to see it?

Oh my God. Now that I’m looking for it, I can’t stop seeing it. The way Blink is defensive and angry all the time and he’s soft for Mush. The way Sarah hates spending time on her hair and she’ll sit for hours letting Kath try out styles on her. The way Buttons and Elmer just do little things for each other every day. None of them are subtle and I am an idiot.

Jack had to laugh at that.

Does this mean I should come out, too? I know now no one would judge me for it, but... I don’t want to mess things up. I love our friends, and I don’t want to lose them. If I lost them, now, it would be because I like you, specifically. Would you be disgusted with me if I told you?

“No,” Jack whispered, before remembering that this was 14-year-old Davey, and he wasn’t here.

I like to think you wouldn’t be, but I can’t risk it. If I lose you, I lose all of them. And if I have doubts about if I could live through losing you, I definitely can’t survive losing everyone. I love them all so much. I love you.

Jack sucked in a breath. As far as he knew, this was the first time Davey had ever said anywhere that he loved Jack.

But I can’t tell you that. So if I come out, it definitely won’t be by saying who I like.

Love, Davey

Jack totally wasn’t crying as he reached for the next letter. It was just current events, random stuff. There were certainly a lot of letters, weren’t there? Davey had documented everything, from Jack attempting to teach him to draw, to the time they both auditioned for the school play, to that time they had to talk Jojo off a ledge when he realized he loved Mike. That one was short but bad. (Honestly, Jack still hated Jojo’s super religious parents for that. Fuck Jojo’s parents.)

Davey did come out in a letter from almost six months later, but it wasn’t until Homecoming sophomore year that things started getting really interesting.

Dear Jack,

I honestly might never talk to you again outside these letters. Sarah’s banging on my door telling me to, and I’m quoting her here, “open the fuck up, David Jacobs.” Mom’s yelling back at her to watch her language. They’re now having a screamed bitching match in the hallway.

Long story short, we were at Homecoming and you asked me to dance. My brain kind of short-circuited, but I said yes right as a slow song came on. Shockingly, you didn’t seem to mind, and you danced with me to Photograph by Ed Sheeran.

Oh, God, Jack remembered that song. It had been their song. He still couldn’t listen to it anymore.

You were singing along to it and smiling at me. It was really sweet, and it was kind of my dream, to be honest, and I guess I lost all control of my body for a second because I kissed you during the last chorus and I didn’t stop kissing you until the end of the song.

Jack remembered that like it was yesterday, because it was their first kiss. It was a million perfect colors exploding across Jack’s brain and feelings he could barely identify swirling into a moment more beautiful than any painting he could ever create.

Then a faster song came on and I don’t know if anyone saw, but I really hope they didn’t because if they did that means they saw what happened next. Which is: I ran away. I ran all the way to my car and drove home and locked myself in my room. Sarah came home not 5 minutes later, so I think she knows, but it doesn’t matter. I don’t know how I can face you after this. In hindsight I think you were kissing me back, and if you were that means I just ran out on you and it probably hurt when I did. If not, that’s even worse because I kissed you and you probably just didn’t pull away out of pity.

Holy shit, I think you’re here, now. I can hear you outside my door with Saz, and maybe Kath, too. She’s trying to calm her down, which, honestly, good luck, Kath. Wait. No. Shit. I guess being her girlfriend has its benefits. It’s just you, now. You’re talking really softly, but I can’t understand you through the door. This is why we enunciate, Jackie.

Jack rolled his eyes on reflex.

I’m still pretty scared, but I think I’m gonna open the door. Scratch that, I’m definitely gonna open it. If you yell at me, I’ll probably yell right back. Funny, isn’t it? How I never would have done that before meeting you? If we have a huge fight, remember that you’re the one who taught me not to censor myself. David never would have even opened that door, but Davey is your monster. Good luck. I’ve out-argued you before, Jackie, so you’ll need it.

I should stop stalling and open the damn door.

If you break my heart, Jack Kelly, I’m going to kill you.

Love, Davey

Reading that last sentance, Jack froze.

If you break my heart, Jack Kelly, I’m going to kill you.

Time was a bitch, because by all accounts, they were both broken-hearted, now.

Jack wiped away his tears and realized there was a little bit more writing.

P.S. I guess you get to live, Jackie, because we had a talk and you kissed me again and now we’re together. Like, boyfriends. I can’t stop smiling. It’s stupid. I’m probably not going to sleep tonight and it’s all your fault because my stomach is full of butterflies and I can’t stop thinking about how much I love you.

Jack didn’t let himself process that, going for the next letter instead.

Oh, shit. November 1st, 2013. This was going to be a bad one. Still, Jack took a deep breath and started reading.

Dear Jack,

Well, today was emotionally draining. (Halloween was fun, but what came after definitely is not.) It’s already past midnight, but it’s okay because I’m sleeping over at your house tonight. After Saz and I explained the situation, Mom and Dad agreed we should. God, said situation it makes me so angry.

Katherine’s parents kicked her out. They found out about her and Sarah, made her pack a bag, and tossed her away like she was nothing.

She’s 16. She’s a goddamn child like the rest of us. How could they do that to her? I guess it’s good she’s out of that environment, where she has to hide who she is and walk on eggshells with every conversation, but she’s on your couch right now, crying so hard she can’t even drink the tea Medda made her. Sarah and you are trying to calm her down, but I hate seeing her like this. Kath always seems kind of unshakable, like nothing anyone says will get to her. I’ve never seen her this broken. Judging by the look you’re giving me from across the room, you haven’t, either.

You think I’m making a grocery list. Medda told me to, seeing as how she’s busy helping clean out your guest room, Saz is on ‘shoulder to cry on’ duty, and I’m the only boy who lives with a girl. Kath didn’t get to pack much more than a couple of outfits and her toothbrush.

You know what? Fuck it. You and me are her parents, now. You’re good with that, right? We’re already stand-in Mom and Dad for several of our friends—what’s one more? Ha ha, you and me have so much practice already that we are going to be great parents for real one day.

Jack sucked in a breath. Real parents? As in, the two of them staying together long enough to have kids?

Wow. That is wildly inappropriate to think about when we’re literally a couple of 15-year-olds. Also, it makes me think about how Kath is technically a few months older, but whatever. I guess I should actually make that grocery list, now, and stop daydreaming about a hypothetical future while one of our kids now is sobbing across the room from me.

Love, Davey

Davey had never even told Jack he wanted kids.

Sure, they were both a little young for that, but in the future..? Jack had always been scared that he wouldn’t be a good dad, after never having a good dad, himself, but sophomore year Davey was right. He had gotten a fair amount of practice with his friends.

That night, when Kath showed up at the Larkin house, crying so hysterically the makeup from her Halloween costume was running and saying she didn’t know where else to go, Davey was the first person Jack called. Him and Sarah had shown up not fifteen minutes later, probably having been lucky not to pick up a speeding ticket (or you know, gotten arrested for underage driving without an adult) on the way.

15-year-old Davey was right. That night was the most broken Jack had ever seen Katherine. Even if it had worked out okay in the end, with Kath staying with them and being their new sister in every way but on paper, Jack still kind of wanted to throat-punch her parents.

It was... oddly comforting, to know that Davey felt the same. He hadn’t shown it back then, knowing Kath needed him calm, but... to be honest, Jack would have feared an angry Davey Jacobs more than an angry Jack Kelly. You’d get punched by an angry Jack, but an angry Davey? He was smart enough to burn down your world. Jack smirked, thinking about how lucky the Pulitzers were that Davey possessed impulse control.

Most of the rest of the letters were just Davey talking about their relationship as it evolved or recounting whatever drama happened to be going on, (with one in the middle of junior year that was basically just ‘wtf Race is secretly dating Spot Conlon???’) because as the only group of out gays in the school, a few of whom happened to be in not-so-good homes, there was always drama.

Then came the stress of senior year, SATs, and college applications. Davey and Jack had a few fights, which were all well documented here. 17-year-old Jack and Davey hadn’t known that those fights were the beginning of the end.

The letter dated June 5th, 2016 was the one that finally made Jack cry for real .

Dear Jack,

We’re fighting again. We have before, but this time, it’s actually serious.

I get that you’re going to school in Santa Fe and I’m staying in New York. What—did you expect me to follow you all the way across the country? I’m not asking you to stay, because that wouldn’t be fair of me. You’ve got dreams and a scholarship to an art school and that is great. I’m happy for you. But I’m not going with you, because why would I? I’ve got dreams, too. Did you think I would put my life on hold for you?

We can’t stay kids forever, Jackie. Growing up means things change. I thought you knew that. Our friends are spreading out across the country and most of the couples aren’t going to be in the same state. Hell, Specs is going to Harvard in Massachusetts and Romeo is moving to Hollywood to go try his luck and they’re not having problems. If your own brother can do the long-distance thing, why can’t you?

I’m scared, too. I don’t want to lose you, either. I know doing a long-distance thing won’t be easy, but when was the last time either of us gave up just because it was hard? Jackie, if I wanted something easy, I would have bailed after we almost lost Blink. My love for you aside, I didn’t because that’s. not. me. I fight for what I love. And I know you do, too, so... so fight for me. I need to know you love me enough to fight for me, Jackie.

I know you. When you want something—really want it, there is not a force in this world that can stop you from fighting for it. I love you, Jack Kelly. I’m not going to stop fighting for you, so please don’t stop fighting for me.

Love, Davey

Jack choked on a sob. He’d failed. Davey had asked him to fight for him and he failed.

Sure, he hadn’t known that Davey wanted him to fight for him, but... God, if he had...

Jack would have fought, would have walked through hell, would have done anything to keep Davey by his side.

He still loved Davey, no matter what he’d been telling himself since the breakup, and... And he needed to read the rest of these letters. Even if Davey started hating him when the fighting got really bad or wrote about what he was feeling during it.

Shit. There weren’t that many more. The remaining letters were spread out somewhere between high school graduation and when Jack and Davey broke up; a year and a half ago, and... and those would probably be the hardest ones to read

Jack waited a bit until the tears had stopped before opening the one from November 20th, 2016.

Dear Jack,

I haven’t wrote one of these in a while. College has been a bitch, but also...

You and me barely talk anymore. We text each other memes about once a week, (don’t worry. you still know exactly how to make me laugh with those dumb little shitposts.) but we don’t really talk. I can’t remember the last time we FaceTimed. I miss you, but I don’t know how to say it anymore.

I’m thinking about this because it’s Thanksgiving break. Of course, it’s good to see everyone. Kath got home this morning. I didn’t realize how much I’d missed her. Elmer texted me a couple minutes ago that he’s an hour away. Of course that dumbass is driving all the way from Michigan. I’m sure we’ll both have more than enough words for him when you get back because you’re flying in tonight.

I don’t know how I feel about that. I should be excited, but... I don’t think I’ve been this nervous about anything involving you since I ran away after our first kiss. I think I preferred it last year, when we were fighting, because even when we were pissed at each other, at least we were communicating.

You remember when we were kids and you always knew exactly what to say exactly when someone needed to hear it? How you helped calm down Kath when she got kicked out, talked Jojo off a roof, and convinced Spot to tell Race he loved him? It was amazing. I never quite mastered that. I usually know what to do, just never how to voice it. But this time, I don’t even know what to do. We’re not on the same page anymore. I don’t think we’re even in the same book.

Jack took a shaky breath. He and Davey hadn’t been on the same page. And Jack definitely hadn’t known what to say to him, either. They weren’t the unstoppable duo they’d been in high school.

But... damn. Those things Davey had mentioned him doing? He couldn’t have done those alone. For all of those, he had needed Davey there, helping him. Maybe that was why it was so hard, being there for anyone since the breakup.

I hate how five years of being an unstoppable duo can be undone in only four months, and it wasn’t even by fighting. If it was a fight, we could solve it, you and me vs. the problem. But there’s no fight, no problem. It’s just you and me and the growing chasm between us.

You know what? It’s probably just the distance messing with us. We’ll be fine. We just need some time together. Thanksgiving will be good for us. And I’m flying out to Santa Fe for the winter holidays to spend it with you, so that’ll be good, too.

I’m gonna text you right now. Your flight probably won’t be leaving for another hour or so, so we can talk. Get back in rhythm.

I still don’t know what to say. I guess I’ll just ask about how hot Santa Fe is in winter and we can go from there. Here’s hoping this makes things get less awkward.

Love, Davey

Jack remembered that text conversation with Davey in the airport. He remembered how much hope it had given him, and how after Jack went back to Santa Fe when the holiday was over, how much better Davey and him had been. That Christmas/Hanukkah had been great, especially considering most of Jack’s classmates were at home and they’d had the dorm to themselves.

Of course their friends and families had known that was why Jack didn’t come home that year, and he distinctly remembered getting texts from all three of his brothers on Christmas morning asking if Davey was good in bed, but that was besides the point.

The next several letters were from their second wind, the rest of the school year. And yeah, they were hard to read, but they brought back happy memories. Even only seeing each other over breaks and computer screens, it seemed that Davey was happy, too. For a while, it had seemed that Jack could have his dreams of art school in Santa Fe and the love of his life.

Then, of course, during that summer of staying together at whichever house more often than not, they started fighting again. Over nothing. Over stupid things. Over who loaded the dishwasher wrong and who said he was going to pick Les up from his friend’s house.

Then they started fighting over big things. Over harsh words Jack never meant and judging by these letters, Davey didn’t meant, either.

August 2nd, 2017:

Dear Jack,

I fucked up. We just had a big fight, I said a bunch of things I didn’t mean, and like an idiot, I let you leave for the airport without apologizing. Now, you’re acting like your phone is already on airplane mode even though I know for a fact your flight doesn’t leave for another hour. Also, I can see that you’ve read all of my texts, you moron, so I know you’re just ignoring me.

Aw, hell, I don’t even blame you. I said some really bad things. I said you love your art more than me, and I know that’s not true. I know you’d never prioritize material things over the people you love, because Jackie, you prioritize those people who have earned your loyalty over everything, including your own mental and physical health. I know because it annoys the hell out of me, how you never give yourself a break. They’re all adults now, Jackie. They don’t need us as much anymore and you never stop acting like they do.

I shouldn’t be angry with you for that. I know with your childhood, trying to protect Crutchie, Race, and Romeo and sometimes failing, you still feel like you have to save everyone. It’s how you’re wired and I love that about you. I wouldn’t change it if I could. I just wish you’d stop running yourself into the ground to do it.

Is this it? I already feel like we’re on borrowed time, here. Sarah says she thought we were going to break up last year. Kath says she’s sure it’s not that bad. (they’re talking about it very loudly in the hallway. or maybe they’re arguing. who knows?) Les just said that my mom said nobody marries their high school sweetheart. (thanks, Mom.)

I think even if we never said it, that’s what we were both hoping for. I know you, Jackie. I’ve watched your favorite romcoms and Disney movies. I know you want the perfect fairytale relationship with the whole package of ‘and they get married and have kids and live happily ever after.’ And I want that, too. I really wanted it with you. Ugh! I still want it with you! I can’t imagine any alternate universe where I don’t want that with you!

It’s probably inappropriate to think about all that. We’re nineteen. We’re not even old enough to drink yet and we’re definitely too young for me to be thinking about marrying you.

Jack inhaled sharply. Oh, God. He was going to cry again.

But for the record... I do want to. I want everything with you and I cannot imagine any circumstance, any extreme, any bad breakup where I stop wanting that.

Just to be safe, though, in case something I can’t foresee happens and I never say it again...

I love you, Jack Kelly. I have loved you from the first day I met you and I can’t see anything happening in any version of reality that makes me stop loving you. You’re still like the living personification of the moon to me and no matter how much you piss me off, Jackie, your glow doesn’t fade. You shined a light on the parts of me afraid of judgement and taught me to shine, too, despite them.

I’ve never loved anyone the way I love you and I probably never will. I just need you to know that.

Love, Davey

Jack was already crying, but he panicked as he realized there was only two more letters.

A part of him wanted to wait. These were words Davey hadn’t spoken to him. These were the last pieces of Davey that were still Jack’s.

But he needed to know. Were these letters from before they actually broke up? After? Had Davey been wrong in the previous letter and he’d stoped loving Jack?

There were no dates on the envelopes. Still, Jack had to know. He took a deep breath and opened the second-to-last one, the paper covered in old, dried tear marks.

Dear Jack,

We had another stupid fight and we tried to fix it but that just ended in more yelling. That’s happened a few times before, now, but this time, it was different.

Oh, no. This must be from the big one Spring Break of their sophomore year of college.

Jack had come home for the break, it had been great to see his friends, but then he and Davey had started fighting. Like, really fighting. Worse than they ever had before.

And then there was the big one. It was two days before Jack flew back to Santa Fe. It was the one where they actually broke up.

This time, you told me to leave. And I kind of yelled at you to just go back to Santa Fe as you shoved me out the door. Then you yelled that if I wanted you to fly away so badly, I shouldn’t bother visiting again and you slammed the door in my face.

I think we just broke up. I’d be angry about it if I wasn’t so damn sad.

God, this is messed up. I know you’re alone on your bed with those stupid Star Wars sheets you’ve had since you were twelve and you locked the door because you don’t want anyone to see you cry. Thinking about that makes me want to run right back there and say I’m sorry.

I wanted to do that the second I got back to my parents’ house, but they convinced me not to. Sarah yelled at them for it. She said I had to make my own decision. They said I’m too emotional to think clearly. They’re right, of course, which is why I’m here writing this and not on my way back to your mom’s house already.

Now, Les is the only one outside my door. Are Crutchie, Race, Romeo, or Kath outside yours? Les is trying to guilt me into opening the door by telling me he cancelled a date for me. I’m not weirded out at all by the fact that my baby brother has way more game than I did when I was fourteen.

Are we really done, Jackie? For good? I keep waiting to hear you out in the hallway. And probably Kath, because she’s a better driver than you. I can’t keep thinking about this. I’m just gonna to go to sleep.

Davey

Jack wiped his eyes furiously. There was one more letter and he needed to read it, consequences be damned.

This last letter was probably from when Davey cooled down. Maybe the next morning or something. If he didn’t hate Jack while he was emotional and raw from the initial breakup, he might in this letter. But Jack opened it, anyway.

My Dearest Jack,

We really are broken up. You haven’t called me, but I got a very angry text-rant from Crutchie (for which he apologized 10 minutes later) which basically boiled down to him saying I broke your heart. Romeo called me, said ‘dude, not cool,’ then hung up. Race and Medda seem to be trying to see both sides, and though Kath did tell me that the last few months have been like ‘listening to mom and dad fight downstairs,’ she’s not offering any advice. I think she and Sarah are waiting for me to come to them.

I’m so sorry, Jackie. I know this is mostly my fault. Still, I can’t make the first move. Don’t forget: I know you. You’re more concerned with other people’s feelings than yours, so if I ask you to take me back and you do it, I can’t be sure you didn’t just do it for me. If we ever get back together, it has to be because you want it, too. However, I know you won’t even consider we could get back together unless I give you a sign, which is why I’m leaving you my letters.

You went back to Santa Fe two weeks ago and I’m finally stable enough to come get my stuff from your house and drop off what little you left in my room. While I’m there, I’m gonna hide this somewhere. I guess we’ll both have to pray no one else in your family finds it. That would be awkward.

When you find this, I want you to think long and hard about what you want, Jackie. I want you to make a decision for you. Goddammit, think about yourself first for once.

If you fight for me, I want you to do it because it’s what you really want. That fairytale romcom ending with me is still yours if you play your cards right. (Don’t think I forgot all the hurtful things you said to me, even if I’m 70% sure you didn’t mean them.) It might take... I dunno, therapy or something, but I still think we can fix this. It won’t be easy, but neither is love. Neither is our entire messed-up, broken group of friends.

I used to think I’d lose all of them if I lost you. Maybe I would have, if I’d messed up like this in 8th grade. But now, I know I won’t, because they’re all blowing up my phone as much as I’m sure they’re blowing up yours, asking if I’m okay. I see now that they need me as much as I need them. And they still need you, too, even if you do need to accept a little more that we’re all grown-ups now.

Where was I going with this? I had a point.

I guess all there’s left to say is that if you still want that perfect ending with me—getting married and having kids and having them call all our friends ‘auntie’ and ‘uncle’—fight for it. Loving someone the way I’m in love with you doesn’t happen twice, so I’m not going anywhere. You know where to find me.

You probably won’t find this for a while. Hell, you’re not even coming home again until summer break. But that’s probably a good thing. It gives us both some time to cool off and think.

So think, Jackie. Think long and hard and make a choice. Fight for me or don’t. In case I never get a chance to say it in person again...

I love you, Jack Kelly.

Love, Davey

Oh shit.

Davey left this in Jack’s closet a year and a half ago. He’d probably expected Jack to find it that summer. In fact, he probably thought Jack had found it and just decided not to fight for him.

Jack still wanted to fight for him. He had no doubts about that.

But did his have to discover this box now? When he was leaving for Santa Fe to finish his senior year tomorrow?

Fuck it. Even if it had been almost two years, even if there was a high chance Davey wasn’t waiting for him anymore, he still had to do this

Driving to the Jacobs house right then and there was probably the stupidest thing Jack had ever done, and that was including riding that Walmart shopping cart Albert stole down a hill in 8th grade with Race, Romeo, and Albert when Davey, Kath, and Specs weren’t there to stop them.

Sarah was the one who opened the door, and she... Jack hadn’t talked to Saz since the breakup, since she’d been staying mad at him out of solidarity. Honestly, he was now realizing that he’d missed her nearly as much as he’d missed Davey. They’d been good friends, once upon a time.

Now, she glared at him, “The fuck are you doing here, Kelly?”

“I...” Jack honestly couldn’t think of a good way to explain this, “Is he home?”

Sarah snorted, “What? After a year and a half, you’ve finally come to your senses and realized you’ll never find another one like my brother?”

“I never planned on anyone like him in the first place,” Jack snapped, “Davey was always... even back in middle school... You think I’d ever believe I could find someone else like that? I’m dumb, Saz, but I ain’t stupid. I always knew I was givin’ up on forever when I didn’t try to get him back, but... but I thought he didn’t want me anymore.”

Sarah froze, then leaned against the doorframe, laughing kind of hopelessly, “You are stupid, Jack Kelly, if you think my brother wasn’t totally gone for you and totally broken-hearted when you didn’t try to fight for him.”

Jack definitely had an oh shit moment, “Wait, do you know? About the..?”

“The box of letters he left you? Yeah. He told me last year, after you left for junior year without coming for him.”

Jack took the last letter out of his pocket, “I just found it.”

Saz took a second to process that before motioning for Jack to come in, shouting up the stairs, “Davey! Get your butt down here!”

Les, sitting at the kitchen table, looked up from his sandwich, “Holy shit. Jack?”

“Hi, kid,” Jack said, trying not to be weirded out by how the now-16-year-old was taller than him.

“Davey?” Sarah yelled again, clearly impatient.

“Alright, alright! God, Saz, what couldn’t wait 10 se—“ That was when Davey looked up, seeing Jack in his kitchen.

“That couldn’t wait,” Sarah said pointedly, “Les, let’s go... not be here.”

“If I eat in my room, Mom’ll kill me,” Les said, picking up his sandwich, anyway.

“Eat in my room, then.”

Jack and Davey were silent until the other two Jacobs siblings were upstairs.

“Why are you here, Jack?”

Jack had to take a deep breath before he responded, “When was the last time you went somewhere besides school if somebody didn’t drag you out of the house?”

“What?”

“Do the people who love you say you’ve changed? Do they keep saying they need a designated driver only to try to get you drinking and dancing like it’ll make you smile?”

“What are you—“

“Are there songs you can’t listen to? Movies you can’t watch? Have you so much as called someone back when they gave you their number?”

“Jack,” Davey looked at the ceiling, “What’s this about?”

“You once said you wouldn’t put your life on hold for me,” Jack said, “And you were right not to. I can be overprotective, sometimes. No one should put their dreams on hold because of a lover, but... my dreams are the only thing I haven’t put on hold, Dave. I ain’t been living since I lost you. Not really. And when our friends all said I was smilin’ less, I never let myself think about it, because if I did, I’d have to think about how much I was still hurtin’ over you.”

Davey laughed sady, “Jack, if you really wanted me, you would have fought for me a long time ago, so—“

“You’re talkin’ about the letters?” Jack asked, holding up the one he had on him, “Davey... I just found them. Today.”

Davey was silent, his face completely unreadable. Jack was holding his breath.

“Jack Kelly,” he finally smiled, “I should have known you would take this long to clean out your damn closet.”

“I think you spent enough time in the closet for the both of us.” Jack joked.

Davey rolled his eyes, “Very funny, Jackie. Anyway... I don’t think it’s any secret that we can’t just pick up where we left off.”

“Of course not.”

“So... coffee? If we’re trying again, I’d prefer to take things slow.”

Jack nodded, “Probably a good thing I’m going back to Santa Fe after tomorrow. That ain’t enough time for us to do something we’ll regret.”

“Yeah, I guess mostly just texting is one way to take it slow... speaking of which, one of us should probably text the group chat.”

“Oh yeah,” Jack grinned, “They’re gonna freak.”

[ahiddenpath]

Life Talk

1.)  I won Nanowrimo

2.)  My house is sold

3.)  I’m tryyyyyyying to taking it easy

More below the cut.

So, I won Nanowrimo.  It’s roughly 30K Four Years and 20K Tri: Integrity Lens.  I feel very... blank about it, though.  In the last few years, I’ve been trying to celebrate when I win Nanowrimo, but...  I don’t have any emotions about it this year, probably even less than usual.

I should probably back up and say that, when I was growing up, I was the type that got all As, won every contest, was the lead in plays and singing events, got the good behavior awards, won state-wide science and poetry contests, was on the select sports teams.  I’m not saying this to brag- I was hyper-involved in school and extracurriculars because it kept me away from home.  

It got to the point at home where, if I won an award, the reaction was, “good.”  If I didn’t, it was, “Why didn’t you win that award?  We don’t have money for tutoring, so you had better figure it out *vague threat* ”  Stuff like that.

Basically, it’s hard for me to feel proud of anything.  If I succeed, that’s “baseline.”  Good, I won’t be scolded.  If I don’t, that’s anxiety- “I will be scolded, I will be punished.”  

I can’t change that concept as an adult- it was cemented into me during my formative years.  But I can see it, and I can tell myself- it’s okay.  Don’t beat yourself up over not feeling a certain way.

The big thing on my mind now, still, is that we sold our first home successfully a few days ago.  It’s the most enormous load off my mind.  This whole time, I’ve been wondering- I keep pinning everything on when the house is sold.  Will it actually be a relief?  Will it actually free up emotional and mental real estate?

SPOILER ALERT: IT DID, I FEEL GREAT!  

I told my therapist that I couldn’t feel “at home” and “settled” until I sold the old house, and she challenged me to not wait for some kind of...  Permission?  Catalyst?  Like, don’t put things off citing “my old home isn’t sold” as a reason, because suddenly, a year will have passed and you still haven’t painted your room or put up photos or turned the house into your home.

I absolutely see her point, but I also see mine.  Frankly, now that I’m not paying for two mortgages, I can afford to do some of that stuff (buy paint and supplies, buy a rug, buy a lamp, etc).  It is true that I could have hung my photos at any time, so that was just a mental/stress block, but I do think that pointing to the money that was tied up in paying the mortgages for both homes, and for repairing things at the old home at the buyer’s demand, was... you know, a valid reason not to be throwing money at our current home.

Right now, my anxiety is free to be directed at the fact that the CDC is forecasting such drastic pandemic leaps.  It’s expected to hit in about 10-ish days after today, 11/29, a Sunday that will likely be the largest single day for travel as people head back home in droves to make it to work on Monday after going away for Thanksgiving.  It’s expected that we’ll be seeing 4,000 covid deaths per day in the states around week 2/3 of December.

I really don’t want to go to work physically, because I know coworkers who travelled.  I wish we could all stay home for two weeks, when the symptoms will show for carriers who are not asymptomatic.  I will definitely be limiting my time in the office to after 3 PM, when a lot of coworkers have gone home.  It’s still a risk that I’m not sure is worthwhile.  

Ah!  I should probably say that my therapist is talking about ending therapy.  I started in... I wanna say March or April of 2019?  Is that right?  So I guess it’s been...  Like, 19-ish months?  I’ve learned so much, but I would say...  The biggest difference is that I can see my behavior patterns for what they are, and then decide what to do with them.  I haven’t “changed” at my core.  I can’t, not in the way people mean when they say “you’ve changed.”  The same learned behaviors, belief systems, and emotions from my childhood are there.  I just recognize them when they pop up and can make informed decisions about how to approach them.  

Which, it turns out, makes a huge difference, even if it isn’t really “change.”  I’m always in danger of being too distraught to see what’s in front of my face, though (thanks, anxiety!).

What else...  My husband and I did cheese fondue and hot pot for Thanksgiving!  It was easily the best holiday I’ve ever had.  Holidays are always... so high pressure, always such events that turn a day off into a giant list of chores that might span weeks to complete beforehand.  Plus, I’m always hoping I’m not about to be dragged into some kind of “trap” conversation by both my family and my husband’s, who have very different political views compared to me.

But on Thanksgiving, my husband and I ate amazing food, spent a lot of time together, and I felt so loved and cared for and valued, because my husband came up with the idea and made it happen, all so we’d have a nice holiday together.  Honestly, I don’t deserve him.  I don’t get it.  He’s so amazing?  I love him so much.

As for my writing, I’ve been feeling...  Bad about it, frankly.  I think it’s partially because it honestly looks like no one is reading Tri: Integrity Lens.  I don’t get it?  It was my most requested story in 2018/2019, and I know people wanted a sequel to Growing Up with You, so why is TIL doing so poorly?  At first, I thought people were going back to read GUWY again first, since I saw a huge surge in hits for it.  Now, I’m not sure?  Like, if I open my stats, some random GUWY chapters will have over 10 times the hits as the newest TIL chapter???  ???? ????  ????  ?????

I’m wondering if it has to do with Tri itself...  I think that, the more time passed, the more people who liked Tri are maybe defensive about how... negative the fandom reaction was, overall.  Meanwhile, people who dislike it, I think, have maybe simply... chucked it out the window, and don’t think about it much.  Whereas, when it was still coming out and directly after it wrapped up, I think people who disliked Tri were more interested in imagining ways they might have personally tweaked it.

That makes things awkward for someone like me, who thinks Tri has amazing moments basically... tacked onto a crumbling base.  

Actually, let me give you my weird metaphor for Tri!

When I am deciding if I’m going to write a new fic, often what happens is...  A few powerful ideas coalesce, a few themes and characterizations.  Some people say they are lead by a few powerful scenes.  I think of these ideas/themes/character ideas (or scenes for other people) as sparkling ornaments on a Christmas tree.

The problem is that...  Ornaments in a box don’t... do much.  You need to display them on a tree, right?  The ornaments need to be connected and supported by a plot (unless you decide to write a focused oneshot, which is my recommendation in most cases).

In short: Tri has amazing ornaments, but the tree is... not... doing that well.  The ideas are there, there are plenty of awesome moments, but something about the actual story/execution just...  Didn’t do it for me.  But dang, those are some nice ornaments!

That was quick and dirty, but hopefully it conveyed the general idea.  

ANYWAY, I’ve been trying to decide if I’m going to continue TIL.  I think right now, I would definitely finish Ketsui, since I have so much material written already.  Why waste it, right?  But I’m not sure what the future of the story will be- not plot wise, but rather, “is my time better spent elsewhere”-wise.

I’m not sure if I need to focus on a new story, if I should take a break, or what.  I need to write for my mental health, but it doesn’t have to be a fanfic.  It can be anything, as long as I explore whatever is eating at me.

And that is where I am!  I hope you’re all staying safe <3

[blackcoffeeandblankpagess]

things

I feel like I’ve been MIA on here lately and want to post many backlogged pics but also feel like I should do a lil brain dump

Been home for like...3 weeks now? honestly, we’re dealing with it. I’ve actually been really busy and once I decided I wasn’t going to be able to run away any time soon I kinda committed to just doing my best to make it work and it hasn’t been terrible

But on that note, I basically live at our neighbors’ house. They’re essentially my second family, I realize that breaks ~quarantine~ rules and I’ll admit to that, but my family was also already in contact with them before I got home and they are basically the only people I ever see and tbh if I had to pick between coming back to NJ to stay with my family or them, I’d pick them SO... yeah. It’s been really nice spending so much time with them though, dylan (22) and sage (20) have basically been my pseudo siblings my whole life and I pretty much grew up at their house but ever since college it’s rare that we are all home at once and after this time period we will never all be here together again because my fam is moving SO trying to really soak it up- hiking, cooking, playing catan, drinking beer, watching movies, etc. very nostalgic

To my last point- my family (well my mom and ed) is moving! my mom has had a plan to retire and move to costa rica (it’s literally the ONLY thing she talks about ugh) for awhile and they officially put our house up for sale last week so THAT has been a little hectic (I’m honestly so glad they are moving tbh I really don’t like coming to my childhood home that has now been flipped upside down to accommodate a new marriage and does not feel like my home)

not much to report on the running front, have been running less days and doing more biking/swimming here. I took a glance at the site for the marathon I was eyeing for the fall and they seemed pretty adamant that they were gonna hold it which honestly shocked me but I guess it’s in a place that hasn’t been hit too hard?? idk though I basically assumed all 2020 races were off the table. I’d also have to start training in like...2 weeks and I’m not sure if my body is really in the place for that

^to go off of that (TW ED) I need to like...get my fucking shit together. Over the course of the past year I’ve lost x pounds, unintentionally, literally due to anxiety, but once I started thinking about it more I realized my period has really petered out since the winter (like...january I guess?), plus it was never like...FULL force normal to begin with even though I was getting it to some extent for basically all of 2019. so anyway red! flag! I actually weighed myself yesterday which is something I haven’t done in like 5 years (only at doctor’s visits where I usually don’t even look at the weight until weeks later), but I KNEW it was going to have gone down and I thought maybe I could knock some sense into myself and tbh it kinda worked. The disconnect in my brain truly astounds me sometimes. But after I type this up I’m sitting down to have a chat with myself and journal and figure out a plan because this is not healthy and I need to get a grip. (again, like I said, not intentionally undereating, in fact I’ve eaten more on a daily basis over the past year than ever before, but my output is high and whenever I’m anxious my appetite is zero which makes for a very confusing disastrous time) 

In other news! headed down to NC to visit jared next week and I am excited 4 that. tbh I am looking forward to the 10 hour drive I find it really meditative and gives me time to think, catch up on podcasts, etc.

in the process of figuring out my living situation for the fall which is causing me STRESS. but it’s looking like we will be at least to some extent having in person classes. Also it looks like jared might not have to be on campus after thanksgiving in which case maybe he would come stay with me for a few weeks in OR which makes me very very happy

Also in jared news, feeling very very grateful for that boy, he is truly astounding

Food things- I was honestly having like....a slight identity crisis about eating meat. Normally I never buy meat, I only really eat it if there is a very particular circumstance and it’s so infrequent that it usually doesn’t cause me too much angst when it happens, but being home I told myself I’d eat dinner with my fam to make my life easier but I honestly started to get real freaked out about the amount of animal products going on (from an ethical side, not health). I’ve appreciated the eye opening-ness of it from my perspective in a lot of ways. Idk, too many thoughts to type. Probably sounds hypocritical anyway but the thought of being entirely vegan is incredibly stressful to me given my ED (plus, I eat mostly plant-based in general). BUT I have started to try to cook vegan meals for my family which makes me feel good and like I’m promoting good things. I made my mom a TLT for lunch the other day. On Tuesday I made homemade veggie burgers for the first time and they were super good. Making vegan stuffed shells tomorrow. And! And! After talking to my neighbor about veg cooking she also made very very similar veggie burgers this week, she actually made them the day before me so we got to taste test eachother’s. And then jared sent me a pic of vegan bolognese that his sister made which I know was inspired by him making that and I know he was inspired by my plant-based nudges and that stuff makes me feel good. Like I’m spreading a positive influence.

This is super long as per usual and I need to go have my meeting with myself lol thx 4 reading 🐢

[auburnfamilynews]

See if some of us are superstitious enough to go with the reverse jinx...

Well, tomorrow is the Iron Bowl. It’s the big one, and this year things may be in doubt more than they’ve been in any year in quite some time. Alabama’s a slim favorite, but without their starting quarterback and a shaky, injured defense, Auburn’s offensive woes may not matter as much as they have in other games this season.

When it comes to this game, many of us get a little stitious and may not want to show our true feelings. Do we all think Auburn is going to win this game? Maybe. Will us saying that Auburn is going to win affect this game’s outcome? IT COULD, YOU DON’T KNOW. That said, here are our opinions.

AUBURN vs ALABAMA (-4) (O/U 49.5)

Marlon Davidson has gained a One Honor lead over Derrick Brown in the Race for the Most SEC Player of the Week Honors (TM). It sounds like they are very serious about this internal competition. In other words, I would not want to be the backup quarterback these gentleman are both trying to tackle on every snap.

Folks, Auburn can beat this team. This isn’t the offense that put 40 on LSU. This isn’t the defense Saban typically has. But Bo has to rise above his standard level Saturday. He has to be a super star. His arm needs to quickly (and accurately) get the ball to his receivers. Here I am, placing my trust in this team once again.

Auburn 24, alabama 22

-Josh Dub

I wish I believed but I have nothing that shows me the offense will score more than 16 points on a defense with half a pulse. Our defense will keep us in it but that will make it hurt that much more.

uat scores a late garbage TD because I hate football and its basketball season and soon to be baseball season.

uat 24-16

-Drew Mac

My oh my how the result of this game will change perceptions. A win puts us at 9-3 with a win over Alabama, which would for sure knock them out of the Playoffs. A loss puts us at 8-4 with losses to the four best teams on the schedule, and 4-4 in conference. Gus won’t be gone either way short of a 49-0 bloodletting, but still, how this game plays out will write the script for this offseason’s debates.

If Auburn is going to succeed in this game, it’s going to come down to if we can run the ball. Alabama’s rush defense is 41st in explosiveness rate and 48th in success rate, while Auburn’s ground game is 42nd in explosiveness rate and 34th in success rate. That’s also with a limited/out Boobee Whitlow for half the season, who looked back to form against Samford last week. I think if Auburn can establish the ground game early, Bo has shown he’s confident enough in JHS to get some things done in the passing game.

On the other side of the ball, I’m fully confident in our defense. Alabama’s game this year has been to pound the ball for 3-5 yards a pop consistently, then take the top off the defense with elite QB and WR play down the field. But without Tua, we’ll see how the passing game responds. Najee Harris and the ground game haven’t been great at busting big plays, even if he’s been one of the best in the country at getting consistent yardage. That actually mirrors Auburn’s rush defense, who specialize in stuffing you at the line but may let you bust a few big gains each game. My money’s on Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson, but there’s going to be a ton of NFL talent on both sides of the ball in this matchup.

Just like the UGA game, this one’s a toss up. I think Auburn pulls it off with a familiar 28-24 score.

-Ryan Sterritt

It’s cliche to say this, but it remains true…this game being played in Auburn matters more for who we are than the outcome. That’s not to say it isn’t wildly important to win this game, but for those that were there and understand the significance of what happened 30 years ago on December 2, 1989, you understand that who we are today is not possible without us dictating where we play this game.

In essence that is what Alabama is to us. It’s the measuring stick every 365 days of whether or not Auburn is living up to who we say we are and who we aspire to be. Are we the program that is unafraid of going up against the best in America, competing our hearts out, and coming away with our share? Or are we a program that cowers back into exactly what someone else wants to dictate we are. It’s all one big identity crisis that we play out each and every day here in this state, but you already knew that. So let’s get down to it…

These bastards can be beaten. The field doesn’t tilt in their direction the way it used to, primarily due to not being as talented as they are accustomed to being, but also because they’ve got maybe the weakest coaching staff they’ve had in over a decade. They’re a shell of their former self defensively; not really being sure of what their identity is. They’ve had their best offensive weapon taken out due to injury, and now must throw back there a kid who has never seen anything like what he’s about to walk into trying to throw to 4 NFL-caliber wideouts and handoff to another great running back.

I have a ton of respect for that football team in Tuscaloosa and for Nick Saban. What they’ve done is unprecedented and will never be seen again in our lifetimes. I love my good friend Bo Hicks and Druid City Brewing Company. I get along well with our Roll Bama Roll brethren here on this network of sites. The issue I have is not even the arrogance and complete identity being wrapped up in winning, but the idea that we aren’t allowed to be who we are in the same space without them feeling threatened by us, or them actively trying to cause us harm or damage.

Those fans outside of SEC Nation the weekend of the Alabama/LSU game cheering Harvey Updyke when he called into Finebaum’s show represent the worst of what is a large portion of the Alabama fanbase the simply wants us to never have any joy. Those people can go to hell. Those people don’t deserve the success they have. And those people are the reason why winning this game is always so sweet.

But those people aren’t why Saturday matters. Saturday matters because it’s a day for us to get back on the same page as a group of people. If we’re honest we’re all divided as to how we feel about the “state of Auburn” and the direction of our football program. Some reasons are totally valid. Some are so batshit insane that it makes me question how the folks throwing out their grievances are able to normal, everyday life. But we should all be able to agree that the negativity, the students leaving early against Ole Miss, the backlash to the students leaving early against Ole Miss, the wanting to spend an immoral amount of money for the unknown, the anger at a 19 year old quarterback who was in high school 6 months ago, and the general toxin we all are carrying is unhealthy. For us, and for Auburn. Saturday matters because it’s a chance to get right. Come before the altar and release all of your burdens and get behind this football team. Get behind these coaches. And get back to who we are, which is a fiercely loyal group of people who are completely, totally, and undeniably unified by the desire to beat Alabama’s ass.

Keys to victory:

Throw downfield to Schwartz (beyond 25 yards) 4+ times. Make the Alabama defense respect the pass.

Let DJ Williams touch the ball 15-20 times. This is not a game where Boobee is going to win it for you. We need the best running back on the team to carry the load.

Run pace. Let Bo Nix flourish in the system he’s most comfortable with. It’s also the system the head coach is most comfortable calling.

Play straight up defensively. No 3-1-7 look will beat their receivers. Line your men up and make Mac Jones beat you through the air.

Do NOT kick FGs outside 40 yards.

Knock Mac Jones’ ass into the dirt. Hit him. Make him associate the breath of Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson with pain.

To hell with Alabama. Let’s beat their ass. Auburn 23 Alabama 21

-Josh Black

Who says the Iron Bowl doesn’t matter? Both of these teams can be 0-11 and guess what folks, THE IRON BOWL MATTERS! EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

Here’s the reality folks: Auburn very well could be America’s team this Saturday. Why? Because I truly believe that if Alabama wins this game, they’re gonna back their way into the playoffs..... again.

We all know the powers that be are gonna do everything in their power to make sure that happens. So how do you stop them? You protect your house unlike 2 weeks ago and shut em all up.

Auburn won’t be feeling sorry for Alabama starting Mac Jones instead of Tua at QB but Mac has done well so far since taking over full-time after Tua’s injury. It’s the last time we’ll see Derrick Brown, Marlon Davidson and others play in Jordan-Hare Stadium. They can’t lose to both Georgia and Bama at home this year. It simply can’t happen. I’ve felt pretty good all week about this game and I truly hope my good feeling holds true on gameday and throughout the game. War Damn Eagle ya’ll!

Auburn 24 Alabama 17

-Will McLaughlin

I don’t have much in the way of preview for this game. It’s pretty simple. If Auburn can run the football and Nix converts on the available big play opportunities then the Tigers win and possibly comfortably. If they don’t, it will unfold as it did in Baton Rouge, Gainesville and two weeks ago in Jordan-Hare. Give us a Happy Thanksgiving Gus

Auburn 31 Alabama 23

-AU Nerd

I have alternating really good and really bad feelings about this. So it’s honestly a normal Iron Bowl. I hate this game so much. I hate losing to these assholes so damn much. There’s no way I can stomach picking them. As far as game analysis, Auburn has to have explosive plays on offense. Auburn’s best chance to win this game is to have at least 1 touchdown from more than 30 yards out. I feel comfortable with the defense getting enough stops to keep us in the game. It’s just a matter of making the plays on the other side.

Auburn 24, Alabama 19

-James Jones

I’m honestly not seeing what Vegas is seeing. Sure Auburn has blown it against some teams this year, but I’m not sure any of those teams are worse than Bama without Tua. Feels like the degenerates are just seeing that mullet A and going with it.

Anyway, I think the best defense in the country does their job, and Auburn manages to score just a little bit more than they need to. I expect us to see Gus throw everything at them, like we’ve seen before, and give this worse than their average Bama defense all sorts of trouble. We are at home. We will be loud. These defenders that came back to win something only have one left thing to win: this game. War Damn Eagle.

Auburn 30, Alabama 17

-AU Chief

A long time ago I worked as a student assistant in the auburn athletics department of media relations. My job was a lot of data entry and also wrangling players for interviews. It remains one of the most fun jobs I’ve ever had, to be honest. At least once a week Athletics Director Emeritus David Housel would poke his head in the office where all the student workers were, and ask one question, “What are y’all doing today to help beat Alabama?”We all play a part. If you’re in the stadium, be loud. Play your part.If you’re on the couch at home, be loud and be quasi positive on Twitter please, recruits read that. Play your part.If you’re on the field, hit them in the mouth and don’t stop until the clock hits triple 0. Play your part.Auburn is going to do enough to beat this Alabama team. And no one will be able to take anything away from it. Tigers 35, Tide 25.

-Son of Crow

I haven’t lived in the state of Alabama for nine football seasons. I left on the heels of a winged Heisman winner named Cam Newton, and my last memory of experiencing football in Alabama was of winning a national championship. Some of us on this site have stronger negative feelings toward Georgia, but to me, the Iron Bowl never had that brotherly quality.

The first football game I ever really remember watching and understanding was the 1995 Iron Bowl (YES, YES, YES AUBURN, YES!). It was only the third Iron Bowl played at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and when the two teams came onto the field, Auburn ran out of the tunnel while Alabama walked. My dad told me that the team that runs onto the field wins the game, and my small mind took that as gospel. It’s not true, but it was that day.

Since then, I’ve watched Auburn football run the gamut from complete joy and jubilation to total failure. The final game of the season has run that string of emotion as well. 2002 — the unexpected dominance; 2003 — a cathartic experience in the face of disappointment; 2004 — the capper on a perfect season, 11-0 eleven years after 11-0; 2005 — a complete joke and the least pressure I’ve ever had watching an Iron Bowl; 2006 — the feeling that we may never lose the game again; 2007 — not even their god-king can take down Jordan-Hare at night; 2010 — throwing it back in their faces; 2013 — setting Alabama on the wrong side of college football history forever; 2017 — just beating their asses. Those are just the wins.

It’s been equally wild on the other side. Blowouts in 2001, 2008, 2012, 2012... close and tough loss in 2009, the frustrating ones where you play hard and just get out-gunned in 2014, 2015, 2016... but you get the sense that these wins mean less and less to the Tide. Their students are increasingly from areas outside of the state. The focus comes more and more into the national picture, and anything less than a title is a down year. You have to wonder if the same mindset leaks into the team as well. A bunch of these guys have no scope when it comes to thinking about the Iron Bowl as the heated rivalry it’s always been. With their shot at a national championship hinging on this game, but still out of their control, will we see a team that doesn’t quite have the gas in the tank?

For Auburn, we saw what Jordan-Hare Stadium can become. Against Georgia, it was back to the November levels we experienced two years ago. Tomorrow, it’ll be the same if the game is close. Our defense will feed off of that and will have an impact when it comes to affecting Mac Jones and his ability to move the ball. Now, I don’t think the drop off from Tua to Jones is as big as everyone thinks. Tua wasn’t the key to that offense, it was the ability of the receivers to get open and make big plays out of slants and screens. Jones can still have success if he can just get the ball to the weapons on the outside. However, he’ll have to deal with the defensive front of Auburn while trying to make that happen.

Auburn hasn’t allowed more than 24 points all season long. LSU scored 23 at home against us. They scored 46 in Tuscaloosa. It’s not a stretch to say that our defense can clamp down and keep the Tide in a rhythmic rut. I’m not worried about that side of the ball. They’ll do their part.

Offensively, Auburn has to get the best game of the year from Bo Nix. We have to be able to find our receivers in good one-on-one matchups, and we have to try to hit this defense up the middle on the ground. They don’t have the beef in the middle, nor the experience. They’re still fast, and we likely won’t be able to beat them to the edges as much as we’d like. We need the ground game, and the slants, and the running ability of Bo Nix. I think we get just enough.

It won’t be a field goal return, or a fourth down conversion that wins this one. It’ll be the defense standing tall and holding Alabama when we need them most. Backed up into the students, we’ll get the clinching turnover and Bo Nix will have the distinct honor of kneeling down as the clock ticks to zeroes, scoreboard reading Auburn 27, Alabama 24.

-Jack Condon

from College and Magnolia - All Posts https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2019/11/29/20987520/staff-picks-15-auburn-vs-5-alabama

[24jnxh]

Life Story #339

Day 47: Life without father in life. To many more years of friendship, I know that to last a friendship, we need to be honest with one another and if friendship have any problems, find the root to solve the issue and not leave it hanging all the times, because it will destroy a friendship, and it will cause a friendship to end up not in the good terms too. I know that my friendship has never go smooth because my bad temper and my bad attitude not anyone could tolerate, especially I speak words too straightforward that will unintentionally hurt the friends around me. I know that how to deal a friendship that occurs issue, but then I always choose to run away from that problem and never want to face that root, because I’m afraid will cause it even worst. I’m always thinking about it, how I can become a better friend but I know that it is only when I will choose to accept the fact of certain issue that is happening, and being brave enough to face the root of the issue, but then I’m thinking when will the day come to earth, that I will be brave to do so of certain thing. Sometimes I’m truly thinking is it I never try hard enough to be a better friend, have I not done much enough for my friends, the more I think, the more I will feel that I’m such a useless person. I cannot say that I’ve done much and tried hard enough to be a better friend, because of one rejection I no longer dare to try anymore, but then to my friends they say I’ve tried hard enough. I truly no idea what to do. I’ve been thinking a lot, but I did not want to let anyone knows what is truly on my mind. Holly, I’m truly sorry towards you and this friendship that we had. During thanksgiving, even I heard from God, but your sister’s words to me, I can never let go. This have truly told me to think upon every word I would speak, things that I would share, will it bring pressure and stress into your life. Despite, what I would feel about this, despite what wrong I caught, I must think deep, should I tell you about it. God told me, “Times, we need to learn through friends’ feedback. Don’t think that you are adding pressure and stress, because you are helping her to be a better friend.” I started to doubt upon myself and thinking can I be your friend? I started to have issue upon myself, and I started to feel so lousy and worst of myself. When you mentioned what your resolutions is, and what God spoke to you, and suddenly you send me two voice record, do you remember? I nearly cried to be honest. That’s when I feel even worst of myself, and I felt so bad of myself. I might not know how to face you after hearing, but why during countdown that day when you going to collect stuffs, I still go with you because you mentioned that the people a little scary or whatsoever, I decided that no matter how hard it is, I want to keep you safe still, so I decided to go down together with you instead of letting you go down by yourself. When you mentioned about treating people unequal, that moment I felt that you can continue to treat me unequal, but in my heart was struggling too, because being treated unequally, it is a hurting moment. But I told myself, no matter what, need to bear with it. Holly, I’m not a good friend. I’m so sorry! 5 years, in this 5 years, I tried my very best, till my extreme best, that I give all out to build this friendship, and other friendships, and knowing if another part hand does not clap together, this friendship doesn’t work. In our friendship, I knows what you are more to, is fellowships and calls, but for me I’m texting and fellowships, but, your time is always pack which is not that I did not want to fellowship with you, but for calls, my habit came back because I’m sharing my room with my room, so my habit of not calling after 10pm is back, until my mum bought a house and I got my own room, then yes, late night calls I don’t mind but if can I preferred fellowship if not text, which I know it is not something you would do. This I can see that it doesn’t clap. As much as I tried, that I tried to go according with your availability, but things don’t work. Just take 2018 for an example, on Feb 2018 during my birthday, you texted me and say let’s fellowship, but I’ve always been waiting for you to tell me when you free because all you mentioned was when your holiday. But it never happened, until Rycelyn’s conference that day. If you did not go or you could not make it, do you think we still have that breakfast together at Chinatown? Probably that fellowship for 2018 will never come. Then afterwards, I tried to ask for another fellowship, but you said you not free and will get back to me again with the available date, but it never happened at all. I tried, I can honestly say that I’ve tried my very best to build this friendship, and not just go with how I build friendship, but also go according to how you build friendship, but it doesn’t help. I tried my very best already. I could say, I felt so useless of myself. Thanksgiving, when I’m alone waiting for bus, I’ve missed a lot of the bus, because I’m thinking and I’m crying at bus stop. I reflected on all my friendship, 4 friendships were gone, 1 friendship don’t know how to describe, 3 friends gone and passed away, and what I did? The 4 friendships were gone was because of my unequal treatment, time management, and replies. 3 friends passed away, but before they leave did I done anything for them? No, I did not. I did not even reply them nor anything, until when I’m a little free I replied things happened. I regretted not reading their message because it is something that they are going through in life and they need me to listen and console them, but when I replied, they committed suicide. 1 friendship that I did not know how to describe is ours. Which all I have mentioned above. When come to this situation, feeling so useless of myself as a friend. Every year, cellgroup asked me to make 3 wishes and say 1 wish, I never mentioned my wish before and always said that I have no wish, but I have. My wish is, I’m able to have surprise again for my birthday, just like how my jiejie last time did for me. Every year, she will plan something different for my birthday and surprise me with different things and always have friends suddenly pop-out in the surprise. I missed those. I’m thinking, if my jiejie haven’t die, probably she will still be the one that surprise me already. I’m not just a useless friend, but also a bad, a stupid and idiot sister. I’m sorry Holly, that I’m never a good friend. On 9 Jan 2019, it is the first TPCHC Prayer Meeting. When a friend came to me and asked whether she can pray for me, I felt was so accurate, because it was something I’ve been feeling inside of me throughout 2018. After her prayer, God told me to look at the fish tank that is right in front of me. He told me, “Do you think that the fish inside the tank have no freedom? But that is not the truth, because they have freedom to swim anywhere they want, any direction they decide to go ahead with. Do you think that all side are sealed but they cannot breathe? But that is not the truth, because they still have the oxygen pipe that is with them in the tank for their breathing. Then my child, what about you? Your soul is at a prison cell right now, could you have any freedom? You are not fish that have freedom to swim, but you are locked at one place that if you don’t get out, you have no freedom.” – When I decided to go home wait for my dad, I decided to go to the room and worship God once again and asked what was the area that I’ve been locked at. I cried so badly, and God told me “My child, what was the feeling when that friend leaned on you?” And I told God, “I felt was loved. Even she approached me and asked if I want to lean on her shoulder, I felt concern and care.” Then next God asked, “Have you forgive her?” Then I answered God, “Yes, I have forgiven all the hurts that she given to me, all the pains that she has given to me.” Then the next question from God strike my heart, God asked, “Then my child, have you forgiven yourself?” Then I realize, that I could forgive other, but I might not be able to forgive myself, I could not forgive how my words are harsh and how straightforward I am towards my friends. So, my answer to God was, “Lord, I cannot forgive myself for what I’ve done to her. I’ve no face to face her, and I’ve no rights to let her go through my season with me. I could not forgive that how I’ve actually hurt her for speaking harshly to her.” Then Lord speaks, “My child, this is the prison cell that you’ve locked your soul at. You could not be honest with her, because the guilt that you have within yourself. My child, let it go and set yourself free. Only when you set yourself free, you are free from this prison cell. My child, it’s a new year, don’t lock your soul up anymore. Let it go, my child.” That moment, was my breaking down time that I know I’ve to let go and give it to God. Holly, when you suddenly lean on me, I felt shock, to be honest, because normally it was me who lean on you instead you lean on me. So, when you lean on me, I was quite surprise. Be it I lean on you, or you lean on me, in both ways I could feel something, that is love. So, when God asked me about it, I answered was love. I know, you did not blame me, but holly, I blamed myself. I tried forgiving myself, but I could not do so. I’m sorry, that I’ve live in this prison cell since about the end of 2018, and in 2019 I’m still living in this prison cell. I tried, because I know if I don’t forgive myself, my 2019 will have no freedom. But, do you know something? In this process, when I’ve forgiven you, I found out there is something that was stuck in my heart that I could not get out of and that I cannot make it to share things with you as easy as the past, until today that word was spoken until God told me to look at that fish tank, until I reached home and seek God even more, then I realize what was the deepest cell that is in my heart that locked my soul. Holly, here to say again, I’ve forgiven you. No matter what lays in the future, I’ll still going to forgive you, because I want you to know that you are my precious friend that I hold close in my heart, just as Shermeen. I might be angry, but I’ll always forgive and continue to love despite how pain it could be. Even, I’m locked up at the prison cell, I will continue to forgive you and love you, because you are always a sister to me. You asked me about how I felt about the Prayer Meeting, when I decided to text you through text, you are not replying me and not even reading it. Let me feel that you can’t be bother about it. To be said, I truly have my own thoughts, but the way we lead will be different, because I always believe different people have different ways of leading a campus meeting. And in ministry if there is transition that need to be done, I can’t say that we need to prepare first, because I feel that there is some moment of lost for the members, and a little lost for the guitarist too, but yes, the presence of God still there but the lost moment over there. I not sure why would you said that, “What you think about today’s Prayer Meeting? Any feedback? It’s okay to tell me and it’s okay if you hurt me.” This is the thing that I not sure why would you say so. I know that my words will hurts, but, why you say so? I can tell you what I want, but it is not that any hurting but probably it was what I encounter that hurts. Life Story World – XH Ng Time Check: 11 Jan 2019/1035am

[leehaws]

The Outlet Pass: The Draymond Green Trade Machine Edition

So, What is Draymond Green’s Trade Value?

In the aftermath of a verbal dispute between Kevin Durant and Draymond Green that still may turn into something more and has already yielded one suspension while puncturing Golden State’s aura of invincibility, all eyes are on Durant’s free agency. Is this the pivotable moment that will push him out the door, onward to New York City or Los Angeles or whichever city will next be blessed by his inextinguishable knack for introducing a basketball to the inside of a rim?

Speculation in this case is a tad premature, but the stakes are high enough to allow it. (A dynasty hangs in the balance!) Even though we haven’t reached Thanksgiving, it always felt like Golden State needed to have a hand in its own demise; they’re too talented to be done in by a superior opponent. There’s still time for cooler heads to prevail—Steph Curry’s health-related on-court absence from the equation shouldn’t go unnoticed—but the entire situation allows another question to creep into the periphery: What is Draymond’s trade value?

This isn’t to say Golden State should or will trade the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate just to appease the unappeasable Durant. But it’s worth wondering what they could get, or would even want, in return. And outside the Bay Area’s cushy confines, where he’s ascended alongside the two greatest shooters who ever lived, what would Draymond even look in another team’s jersey?

Green will make $17.4 million this year and $18.5 million in 2019-20 before he becomes a 30-year-old unrestricted free agent. He never was a traditional All-Star, someone who can roll out of bed every morning with 20 points in their back pocket. Green’s value is instead very real and very specific to everything that makes Golden State so free and spacious. It’s not fair to ask if the Detroit Pistons would be better with Green instead of Blake Griffin, but the answer to that question is “no,” even though most league observers probably think Draymond’s overall on-court impact is more beneficial.

Even though he’s a three-time All-Star in his prime with nearly two years left on his deal, Green couldn’t fetch what the Cleveland Cavaliers received for Kyrie Irving or the Chicago Bulls got for Jimmy Butler. A lottery pick feels out of the question. But how do you weigh a key ingredient for the greatest team ever beside the temper that may be responsible for said team’s downfall? He’s one of four players averaging at least seven points, seven assists, and seven rebounds right now (the other three are Russell Westbrook, Ben Simmons, and LeBron James), but is also shooting 24 percent from deep with the fourth-worst turnover rate in the league.

Every dynasty that intends to stay on top must eventually alter its fundamental makeup on the fly. Having signed Durant, the Warriors (and Green!) know this better than anyone else. But their decision to publicly embarrass a franchise icon the way they did could reverberate in a way they couldn’t see, despite existing light years ahead of the competition.

What if Durant, suddenly emboldened by the call to reprimand Draymond, tells Bob Myers that he doesn’t want to leave. That he’s willing to re-sign long-term so long as Green is gone. And when does Green’s next contract complicate matters to the point where the fear of losing him for nothing/locking him up on an expensive, untradeable deal becomes too much? What are some hypothetical trades that make sense? Do they exist? I’m honestly not sure. Most teams that are in the time of their life cycle to have interest in Green can’t give the Warriors what they’d want in return, or have the type of salaries on their books to make it work (i.e. the Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Pelicans, Washington Wizards, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets).

But here are a few that, while flawed (repeat: these are flawed and mostly unrealistic because Draymond’s monetary value and skill-set are not easy to trade!) are fun enough to wonder about:

Portland Trail Blazers get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Zach Collins, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Moe Harkless

How much more enjoyable will the NBA playoffs be if this trade happens? Golden State (possibly) sustains its standing in the short-term while looking towards the future with a cost-controlled blue chipper who can pass, shoot, and protect the basket. Portland ostensibly lands the missing piece it needs to make a legitimate playoff run without breaking up its backcourt duo.

Miami Heat get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Kelly Olynyk and Justise Winslow

There’s no logical rationale behind this trade. I just want to see Draymond mixed with Heat culture.

Sacramento Kings get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Marvin Bagley III, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Obviously terrible for Sacramento but this organization feels due for an obviously terrible move. Bagley III may not ever be good, but it’s so rare for a team as great as the Warriors to add a prospect with that much potential. It makes them significantly worse for the rest of this season, but would it cost them the title? At the very least, Golden State could turn around and use Bagley III as a trade chip to add more immediate help.

Brooklyn Nets gets: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Spencer Dinwiddie and DeMarre Carroll

For an organization that may not want to sit around and test free agency, this is one way to spice up their relevance while selling high on a talented guard whose skill-set overlaps with D’Angelo Russell and Caris LeVert. LeVert’s injury stalled Brooklyn’s metamorphosis into a frisky playoff team this season, but next year, with LeVert, Green, Jarrett Allen, and a lottery pick? They wouldn’t be bad!

Utah Jazz get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, and Thabo Sefolosha

A decent rookie plus a serviceable small-ball four plus a veteran who doesn’t really play anymore? That sounds like a reasonable package. Of course, sending Green to a team that has Golden State in its crosshairs probably isn’t realistic. (That goes for Portland, too.) Either way, just imagine a frontcourt that pairs the last two Defensive Players of the Year, while solving Utah’s long-standing issue that is Gobert at the five in crunchtime of a critical playoff game. The Jazz slice into their cap space and shouldn’t feel confident about retaining Green once he hits unrestricted free agency in 2020, but until then they would be the league’s most intriguing title contender. The Warriors save money and get better (?) on offense.

Tom Thibodeau: Stranger in a Strange Land

Say what you will about Jimmy Butler’s behavior, multiple generations of corrosive dysfunction, and every other obstacle Tom Thibodeau has faced since he became President of Basketball Operations for the Minnesota Timberwolves—some of which was clearly self-constructed—but the team’s putrid defense is impossible to ignore.

The Timberwolves have the worst defense in the NBA, and are surrendering about four more points per 100 possessions than they did four years ago, when…they finished with the worst defense in the NBA. Teams are brutalizing Minnesota on the offensive glass and taking total advantage of their non-existent hustle back in transition. Their only five-man unit that’s played major minutes and come close to yielding dignified results was Butler + The Bench, and that group no longer exists.

Not all the blame can rest on Thibodeau—Karl-Anthony Towns is still at his best chasing shots to block and, as ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out on a recent podcast, Andrew Wiggins doesn’t appear to enjoy playing basketball—but the team has yet to resemble one that knows how to defend uncomplicated NBA offense.

What exactly is Derrick Rose doing here? Does he think he should switch onto Iman Shumpert? Does he see Kosta Koufous through the corner of his eye and anticipate having to guard a high pick-and-roll? For whatever reason, Rose being this far from where he should against a speed demon like De’Aaron Fox is instant death. Plays like it aren’t uncommon.

They’re allowing 1.13 points per possession after a made shot while opponents gallop by at the third-fastest tempo in the league, per Inpredictable. They make no effort to match up and hardly ever sprint back. The play below came seconds after a Towns dunk, and they can’t even use poor floor balance as an excuse! It’s not new for the Thibs Timberwolves, but it’s still disturbing.

He entered this job as a revolutionary defensive tactician, someone whose militaristic instructions could squeeze water from a brick. But how does a league that’s never been more open about its desire to make life easy for offenses impact Thibodeau’s stock if/when he loses his job? Can he build a top-notch defense in today’s NBA, which looks much different from what it was when he was Doc Rivers’s assistant in Boston or head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Or did poor personnel decisions spell out his own doom?

Philly Helps Ben Simmons by Getting the Ball Out of His Hands

Ben Simmons is 22 years old and—according to some smart people, including his own general manager—one of the world’s 20 best players. He’s already won Rookie of the Year, one playoff series, and only Russell Westbrook and LeBron James have more triple-doubles since his career debut. If he doesn’t go down as one of the 10 best passers his size (6’10”, for those unaware) who ever lived it’ll be a wild disappointment.

He’ll always be a unique mismatch who terrorizes defenses caught between stopping his momentum and realizing the moment they do he’s going to fling a dart out to the three-point line, or put one of his teammates in a hot-air balloon to cram home a lob. On defense, Simmons’s height and build allow the Philadelphia 76ers to stick him on opposing centers (Al Horford, Myles Turner, etc.) when they need to hide Joel Embiid on someone who isn’t as threatening in the pick and roll. He’s very good and special and the 76ers should feel blessed to have him on their team.

But if last year was a hazily appealing honeymoon, the earliest returns on Simmons’s sophomore season have sometimes felt like the first valley in a marriage that’s yet to experience any conflict; an unsettling realization that the notable hitches in his game won’t improve anytime soon—he and Philly are officially in this through good times and bad. Regardless of how physically imposing, rare, and breathtaking Simmons can be, building a championship contender with someone who can’t shoot as a focal point is exceptionally difficult. It helped spur Saturday’s blockbuster trade for Jimmy Butler and, regardless of what the team says, has made Markelle Fultz expendable. This year, Philadelphia has the 26th best offense in the league with Simmons on the court (on par with the tanktastic New York Knicks). They play like a 36-win team with him and a 48-win team without him. (When Embiid isn’t on the court but Simmons is, the Sixers have the worst offense and worst defense in the NBA.)

Philly still likes to get Simmons going downhill, usually to his left, with a J.J. Redick ball screen near the free-throw line. It’s a tricky but increasingly predictable action that most defenses are starting to spot from a mile away, especially as they use it more and more towards the end of quarters. Here’s the best-case scenario: Malcolm Brogdon deciding Fultz is a threat in the weak-side corner.

More often than not, teams will either switch the screen and force Simmons/Redick to go one-on-one, or the floor will be too congested for him to do much of anything. Watch Michael Kidd-Gilchrist below.

It’s early, we’re months away from the trade deadline and buyout market. Someone like Kyle Korver can really help. But a smart thing Brett Brown has done to mitigate Philly’s shortage of outside shooting is use Simmons more as an off-ball scorer. That sounds insane, but this is less about his gravity flying off a pin-down and more about physical duck-ins and and the most intimidating Hawk cut in the league.

The sequence seen above is similar to what the Oklahoma City Thunder ran last season as a way to involve Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. (As covered by Ben Falk over at Cleaning the Glass.) Embiid screens for Simmons near the elbow and gifts him a free dash into the paint.

Below, the Indiana Pacers are ready for it. Bojan Bogdanovic spins under Embiid’s pick while Myles Turner drops a bit, ready to absorb Simmons’s cut. The Sixers shrug their shoulders and get a layup.

As Brown tinkers with different ways to accentuate Simmons’s nightmarish athleticism (while obscuring his setbacks) in lineups that feature Embiid and Butler, look for this more and more.

According to Synergy Sports, post-ups and cuts accounted for 18.2 percent of Simmons’s possessions last year. Right now they’re at 28.4 percent, with Brown stacking his playbook with more ways to let Simmons attack from spots on the floor where he’s comfortable. This baseline out of bounds set is a great example.

Simmons inbounds the ball and then immediately carves out post position for an entry pass. Simple, yet effective! But these actions aren’t enough to prop up Philadelphia’s offense and ultimately nullify an aesthetic that’s occasionally drowsy. Don’t let anyone ever tell you Simmons’s inability to shoot doesn’t matter, be it from the corner, elbow, or free-throw line. He’s awesome and has found ways to overcome it, but defenses know he isn’t willing to pull-up from 15 feet and they guard him as such. That’s more wart than novelty. Shooting helps! But harnessing his physicality on the block, along with different ways to leverage his speed in a half-court setting, is wise. They should/will lean into it even more now that Butler is on board.

All the Wizards Have is John Wall and Bradley Beal’s Subtle Chemistry

The Washington Wizards have won three in a row, but don’t let that distract you from the fact that they’re still an indifferent collection of untenable contracts. They don’t seem to care or try, and when they do it’s laughably stubborn. (So, you don’t think I can make this unnecessarily difficult pull-up two? Watch this!) Put on a Wizards game for ten minutes and your first takeaway should be that they desperately want to flex on the world but don’t have a gym membership. Steps are missing. Corners get cut. (In one recent play against the Orlando Magic, Washington surrendered a put-back dunk after Bradley Beal’s shoe came off and “prevented” him from hustling back into the frame.)

Their carelessness is underlined by bizarre lineup decisions—that include Scott Brooks’s penchant to play all-bench groups that have so far been outscored by (what follows is not a misprint) 29.3 points per 100 possessions—and a frustratingly fine point guard who’s powerful enough to take over a game while also being the number one reason it slips through his team’s fingers.

But hope lives in even the darkest corners of the NBA. And as inconsequential as it might be, flashes of chemistry between Washington’s two best players have provided a fleeting semblance of expertise commonly associated with professional athletics.

In both plays seen below, subtlety is key. Beal’s defender is primarily concerned with letting him race up off a down screen to either curl into the paint or stop cold for a jumper. Tyler Johnson sees Dwight Howard coming and all he’s thinking about is that pick, and how he can get over on it. John Wall knows this.

Terrence Ross is similarly positioning in the next example, but this one is a bit more scripted. As Wall dribbles up the floor, he points to his right, where Austin Rivers is jogging around Kelly Oubre and Jeff Green. The intention is not for Rivers to catch the ball, though. Instead, his purpose is to clear out one side of the floor, force several of Orlando’s defenders to focus on his movement, and let Beal fall into an easy layup.

Wall drops in a beauty, and Beal gets his easiest two points of the night. These reads won’t save Washington’s season, but, at the very least, they prove the Wizards (might) have a pulse.

What is Wrong With Terry Rozier?

Terry Rozier has range, athleticism, and the reflexes of a cat. He can pull up from 26 feet or knife towards the elbow and elevate over whoever’s guarding him. He loops the ball as he dribbles, yo-yo-ing it in place with enough command and elegance to make you stop and count how many players rival his authority over any given possession. He does what/gets where he wants and fluidly snakes pick and rolls with the best of them. He thrives in narrow spaces without turning it over and his toolbox has it all: filthy hesitation moves, a nasty between-the-legs crossover, the type of step-back that should/might be illegal. Before he went 0-for-5 on Wednesday against the Bulls, Rozier was making a career-best 42.6 percent of his threes.

Everything written above is true. It’s also irrelevant. Through the first month of his fourth season (the last before his next contract), Rozier’s potency has stalled. In 13 fewer minutes than he averaged throughout last year’s breathtaking postseason run, the 24-year-old’s weaknesses have amplified as he familiarizes himself with a new life as Kyrie Irving’s backup, struggling to identify his own responsibilities off the bench.

His game is a laundry list of needless split-second compromises. Rozier bails out defenders with jump shots that haven’t been falling, and rushes through motions that otherwise make him unguardable. He’s playing on an edge nobody else can see. Instead of dribbling into the paint and lofting a high floater over shot blockers who want him to take that exact shot, as seen below, why not sprinkle some craft and misdirection into his game by pump-faking his way to the free-throw line?

Or instead of taking that shot, why not string out the play by dribbling into the corner, forcing Meyers Leonard to switch, then breaking him down from the perimeter, forcing help and creating an open look elsewhere? This play is not an unusual one for Rozier. He’s either needlessly scrambling or uselessly placid, trying to fit in when the Celtics need him to stand out.

It’s common for players to let poor shooting/scoring numbers bleed into other parts of their game, but Rozier can’t afford to let that happen. He’s declined as a passer and for reasons that aren’t clear, has looked less comfortable than ever attacking the rim. His offensive rebound rate is less than half what it was last year, a crime given how dynamic he tends to be on the glass.

Rozier isn’t the only Celtic struggling, but he’s the most likely to get traded. And if this version of his game lingers for much longer, it’s unclear why another team will be willing to surrender anything of value for the right to pay his next contract.

Brook Lopez’s 3-Point Range is Madness

Look how far Brook Lopez is standing from the rim!

The furthest every NBA three-point line extends from the rim is 23.75 feet. (It’s 22 feet from the corners.) Lopez has already made three shots from at least 28 feet away! This isn’t totally new—he took 16 from that distance last season—but his range is noticeably expanding in a way that’s turned him into Milwaukee’s very own/slightly taller Ryan Anderson. Even in today’s era, this feels synthetic. Like, he’s taken and made as many 30-footers as Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, and Chris Paul. How is any of this real life?

Jabari Parker is Playing Defense, Kinda!

It’s too soon to say if this is small-sample-size theater or just one player’s overnight transformation into Spider-Man, but Parker is allowing the fewest points per possession in isolation among all non bigs in the entire league, per Synergy Sports. In 28 possessions, opposing players have only made five shots with Parker as their primary defender. (Those who rank above? Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Wendell Carter Jr., and Domas Sabonis.)

The numbers might sound like a fluke but actually watch Parker do work and his quick hands and twitchy feet make this all feel somewhat sustainable. Here he is against James Harden and Jayson Tatum, two of the most difficult one-on-one covers in basketball.

Parker is jumpy, but in a good way, beating his man to spots after he boldly gets into their body to take away their shot. He displays a lateral quickness that, frankly, looks alien in his body. (Last season, Parker ranked 228th out of 263 players who defended at least 30 iso possessions. The year before that he was 268 out of 280.)

This is a far cry from claiming Parker is or will ever be a plus defender. But he’s only 23 and the Bulls have been better (but still bad) on that end when he’s on the floor. This might be more than nothing.

The Outlet Pass: The Draymond Green Trade Machine Edition syndicated from https://justinbetreviews.wordpress.com/

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The Outlet Pass: The Draymond Green Trade Machine Edition

So, What is Draymond Green’s Trade Value?

In the aftermath of a verbal dispute between Kevin Durant and Draymond Green that still may turn into something more and has already yielded one suspension while puncturing Golden State’s aura of invincibility, all eyes are on Durant’s free agency. Is this the pivotable moment that will push him out the door, onward to New York City or Los Angeles or whichever city will next be blessed by his inextinguishable knack for introducing a basketball to the inside of a rim?

Speculation in this case is a tad premature, but the stakes are high enough to allow it. (A dynasty hangs in the balance!) Even though we haven’t reached Thanksgiving, it always felt like Golden State needed to have a hand in its own demise; they’re too talented to be done in by a superior opponent. There’s still time for cooler heads to prevail—Steph Curry's health-related on-court absence from the equation shouldn’t go unnoticed—but the entire situation allows another question to creep into the periphery: What is Draymond’s trade value?

This isn’t to say Golden State should or will trade the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate just to appease the unappeasable Durant. But it’s worth wondering what they could get, or would even want, in return. And outside the Bay Area’s cushy confines, where he’s ascended alongside the two greatest shooters who ever lived, what would Draymond even look in another team’s jersey?

Green will make $17.4 million this year and $18.5 million in 2019-20 before he becomes a 30-year-old unrestricted free agent. He never was a traditional All-Star, someone who can roll out of bed every morning with 20 points in their back pocket. Green’s value is instead very real and very specific to everything that makes Golden State so free and spacious. It’s not fair to ask if the Detroit Pistons would be better with Green instead of Blake Griffin, but the answer to that question is “no,” even though most league observers probably think Draymond’s overall on-court impact is more beneficial.

Even though he’s a three-time All-Star in his prime with nearly two years left on his deal, Green couldn’t fetch what the Cleveland Cavaliers received for Kyrie Irving or the Chicago Bulls got for Jimmy Butler. A lottery pick feels out of the question. But how do you weigh a key ingredient for the greatest team ever beside the temper that may be responsible for said team’s downfall? He’s one of four players averaging at least seven points, seven assists, and seven rebounds right now (the other three are Russell Westbrook, Ben Simmons, and LeBron James), but is also shooting 24 percent from deep with the fourth-worst turnover rate in the league.

Every dynasty that intends to stay on top must eventually alter its fundamental makeup on the fly. Having signed Durant, the Warriors (and Green!) know this better than anyone else. But their decision to publicly embarrass a franchise icon the way they did could reverberate in a way they couldn’t see, despite existing light years ahead of the competition.

What if Durant, suddenly emboldened by the call to reprimand Draymond, tells Bob Myers that he doesn’t want to leave. That he’s willing to re-sign long-term so long as Green is gone. And when does Green’s next contract complicate matters to the point where the fear of losing him for nothing/locking him up on an expensive, untradeable deal becomes too much? What are some hypothetical trades that make sense? Do they exist? I’m honestly not sure. Most teams that are in the time of their life cycle to have interest in Green can’t give the Warriors what they’d want in return, or have the type of salaries on their books to make it work (i.e. the Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Pelicans, Washington Wizards, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets).

But here are a few that, while flawed (repeat: these are flawed and mostly unrealistic because Draymond’s monetary value and skill-set are not easy to trade!) are fun enough to wonder about:

Portland Trail Blazers get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Zach Collins, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Moe Harkless

How much more enjoyable will the NBA playoffs be if this trade happens? Golden State (possibly) sustains its standing in the short-term while looking towards the future with a cost-controlled blue chipper who can pass, shoot, and protect the basket. Portland ostensibly lands the missing piece it needs to make a legitimate playoff run without breaking up its backcourt duo.

Miami Heat get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Kelly Olynyk and Justise Winslow

There’s no logical rationale behind this trade. I just want to see Draymond mixed with Heat culture.

Sacramento Kings get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Marvin Bagley III, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Obviously terrible for Sacramento but this organization feels due for an obviously terrible move. Bagley III may not ever be good, but it’s so rare for a team as great as the Warriors to add a prospect with that much potential. It makes them significantly worse for the rest of this season, but would it cost them the title? At the very least, Golden State could turn around and use Bagley III as a trade chip to add more immediate help.

Brooklyn Nets gets: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Spencer Dinwiddie and DeMarre Carroll

For an organization that may not want to sit around and test free agency, this is one way to spice up their relevance while selling high on a talented guard whose skill-set overlaps with D’Angelo Russell and Caris LeVert. LeVert’s injury stalled Brooklyn’s metamorphosis into a frisky playoff team this season, but next year, with LeVert, Green, Jarrett Allen, and a lottery pick? They wouldn’t be bad!

Utah Jazz get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, and Thabo Sefolosha

A decent rookie plus a serviceable small-ball four plus a veteran who doesn’t really play anymore? That sounds like a reasonable package. Of course, sending Green to a team that has Golden State in its crosshairs probably isn’t realistic. (That goes for Portland, too.) Either way, just imagine a frontcourt that pairs the last two Defensive Players of the Year, while solving Utah’s long-standing issue that is Gobert at the five in crunchtime of a critical playoff game. The Jazz slice into their cap space and shouldn’t feel confident about retaining Green once he hits unrestricted free agency in 2020, but until then they would be the league’s most intriguing title contender. The Warriors save money and get better (?) on offense.

Tom Thibodeau: Stranger in a Strange Land

Say what you will about Jimmy Butler's behavior, multiple generations of corrosive dysfunction, and every other obstacle Tom Thibodeau has faced since he became President of Basketball Operations for the Minnesota Timberwolves—some of which was clearly self-constructed—but the team’s putrid defense is impossible to ignore.

The Timberwolves have the worst defense in the NBA, and are surrendering about four more points per 100 possessions than they did four years ago, when...they finished with the worst defense in the NBA. Teams are brutalizing Minnesota on the offensive glass and taking total advantage of their non-existent hustle back in transition. Their only five-man unit that’s played major minutes and come close to yielding dignified results was Butler + The Bench, and that group no longer exists.

Not all the blame can rest on Thibodeau—Karl-Anthony Towns is still at his best chasing shots to block and, as ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out on a recent podcast, Andrew Wiggins doesn’t appear to enjoy playing basketball—but the team has yet to resemble one that knows how to defend uncomplicated NBA offense.

What exactly is Derrick Rose doing here? Does he think he should switch onto Iman Shumpert? Does he see Kosta Koufous through the corner of his eye and anticipate having to guard a high pick-and-roll? For whatever reason, Rose being this far from where he should against a speed demon like De’Aaron Fox is instant death. Plays like it aren’t uncommon.

They’re allowing 1.13 points per possession after a made shot while opponents gallop by at the third-fastest tempo in the league, per Inpredictable. They make no effort to match up and hardly ever sprint back. The play below came seconds after a Towns dunk, and they can't even use poor floor balance as an excuse! It's not new for the Thibs Timberwolves, but it’s still disturbing.

He entered this job as a revolutionary defensive tactician, someone whose militaristic instructions could squeeze water from a brick. But how does a league that’s never been more open about its desire to make life easy for offenses impact Thibodeau’s stock if/when he loses his job? Can he build a top-notch defense in today's NBA, which looks much different from what it was when he was Doc Rivers's assistant in Boston or head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Or did poor personnel decisions spell out his own doom?

Philly Helps Ben Simmons by Getting the Ball Out of His Hands

Ben Simmons is 22 years old and—according to some smart people, including his own general manager—one of the world's 20 best players. He’s already won Rookie of the Year, one playoff series, and only Russell Westbrook and LeBron James have more triple-doubles since his career debut. If he doesn’t go down as one of the 10 best passers his size (6’10”, for those unaware) who ever lived it’ll be a wild disappointment.

He'll always be a unique mismatch who terrorizes defenses caught between stopping his momentum and realizing the moment they do he’s going to fling a dart out to the three-point line, or put one of his teammates in a hot-air balloon to cram home a lob. On defense, Simmons’s height and build allow the Philadelphia 76ers to stick him on opposing centers (Al Horford, Myles Turner, etc.) when they need to hide Joel Embiid on someone who isn’t as threatening in the pick and roll. He’s very good and special and the 76ers should feel blessed to have him on their team.

But if last year was a hazily appealing honeymoon, the earliest returns on Simmons’s sophomore season have sometimes felt like the first valley in a marriage that’s yet to experience any conflict; an unsettling realization that the notable hitches in his game won’t improve anytime soon—he and Philly are officially in this through good times and bad. Regardless of how physically imposing, rare, and breathtaking Simmons can be, building a championship contender with someone who can’t shoot as a focal point is exceptionally difficult. It helped spur Saturday’s blockbuster trade for Jimmy Butler and, regardless of what the team says, has made Markelle Fultz expendable. This year, Philadelphia has the 26th best offense in the league with Simmons on the court (on par with the tanktastic New York Knicks). They play like a 36-win team with him and a 48-win team without him. (When Embiid isn’t on the court but Simmons is, the Sixers have the worst offense and worst defense in the NBA.)

Philly still likes to get Simmons going downhill, usually to his left, with a J.J. Redick ball screen near the free-throw line. It’s a tricky but increasingly predictable action that most defenses are starting to spot from a mile away, especially as they use it more and more towards the end of quarters. Here’s the best-case scenario: Malcolm Brogdon deciding Fultz is a threat in the weak-side corner.

More often than not, teams will either switch the screen and force Simmons/Redick to go one-on-one, or the floor will be too congested for him to do much of anything. Watch Michael Kidd-Gilchrist below.

It’s early, we’re months away from the trade deadline and buyout market. Someone like Kyle Korver can really help. But a smart thing Brett Brown has done to mitigate Philly's shortage of outside shooting is use Simmons more as an off-ball scorer. That sounds insane, but this is less about his gravity flying off a pin-down and more about physical duck-ins and and the most intimidating Hawk cut in the league.

The sequence seen above is similar to what the Oklahoma City Thunder ran last season as a way to involve Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. (As covered by Ben Falk over at Cleaning the Glass.) Embiid screens for Simmons near the elbow and gifts him a free dash into the paint.

Below, the Indiana Pacers are ready for it. Bojan Bogdanovic spins under Embiid’s pick while Myles Turner drops a bit, ready to absorb Simmons’s cut. The Sixers shrug their shoulders and get a layup.

As Brown tinkers with different ways to accentuate Simmons’s nightmarish athleticism (while obscuring his setbacks) in lineups that feature Embiid and Butler, look for this more and more.

According to Synergy Sports, post-ups and cuts accounted for 18.2 percent of Simmons’s possessions last year. Right now they’re at 28.4 percent, with Brown stacking his playbook with more ways to let Simmons attack from spots on the floor where he’s comfortable. This baseline out of bounds set is a great example.

Simmons inbounds the ball and then immediately carves out post position for an entry pass. Simple, yet effective! But these actions aren’t enough to prop up Philadelphia’s offense and ultimately nullify an aesthetic that’s occasionally drowsy. Don’t let anyone ever tell you Simmons’s inability to shoot doesn’t matter, be it from the corner, elbow, or free-throw line. He's awesome and has found ways to overcome it, but defenses know he isn't willing to pull-up from 15 feet and they guard him as such. That's more wart than novelty. Shooting helps! But harnessing his physicality on the block, along with different ways to leverage his speed in a half-court setting, is wise. They should/will lean into it even more now that Butler is on board.

All the Wizards Have is John Wall and Bradley Beal’s Subtle Chemistry

The Washington Wizards have won three in a row, but don't let that distract you from the fact that they're still an indifferent collection of untenable contracts. They don’t seem to care or try, and when they do it’s laughably stubborn. (So, you don't think I can make this unnecessarily difficult pull-up two? Watch this!) Put on a Wizards game for ten minutes and your first takeaway should be that they desperately want to flex on the world but don’t have a gym membership. Steps are missing. Corners get cut. (In one recent play against the Orlando Magic, Washington surrendered a put-back dunk after Bradley Beal’s shoe came off and “prevented” him from hustling back into the frame.)

Their carelessness is underlined by bizarre lineup decisions—that include Scott Brooks’s penchant to play all-bench groups that have so far been outscored by (what follows is not a misprint) 29.3 points per 100 possessions—and a frustratingly fine point guard who’s powerful enough to take over a game while also being the number one reason it slips through his team’s fingers.

But hope lives in even the darkest corners of the NBA. And as inconsequential as it might be, flashes of chemistry between Washington’s two best players have provided a fleeting semblance of expertise commonly associated with professional athletics.

In both plays seen below, subtlety is key. Beal’s defender is primarily concerned with letting him race up off a down screen to either curl into the paint or stop cold for a jumper. Tyler Johnson sees Dwight Howard coming and all he’s thinking about is that pick, and how he can get over on it. John Wall knows this.

Terrence Ross is similarly positioning in the next example, but this one is a bit more scripted. As Wall dribbles up the floor, he points to his right, where Austin Rivers is jogging around Kelly Oubre and Jeff Green. The intention is not for Rivers to catch the ball, though. Instead, his purpose is to clear out one side of the floor, force several of Orlando’s defenders to focus on his movement, and let Beal fall into an easy layup.

Wall drops in a beauty, and Beal gets his easiest two points of the night. These reads won’t save Washington’s season, but, at the very least, they prove the Wizards (might) have a pulse.

What is Wrong With Terry Rozier?

Terry Rozier has range, athleticism, and the reflexes of a cat. He can pull up from 26 feet or knife towards the elbow and elevate over whoever’s guarding him. He loops the ball as he dribbles, yo-yo-ing it in place with enough command and elegance to make you stop and count how many players rival his authority over any given possession. He does what/gets where he wants and fluidly snakes pick and rolls with the best of them. He thrives in narrow spaces without turning it over and his toolbox has it all: filthy hesitation moves, a nasty between-the-legs crossover, the type of step-back that should/might be illegal. Before he went 0-for-5 on Wednesday against the Bulls, Rozier was making a career-best 42.6 percent of his threes.

Everything written above is true. It’s also irrelevant. Through the first month of his fourth season (the last before his next contract), Rozier’s potency has stalled. In 13 fewer minutes than he averaged throughout last year’s breathtaking postseason run, the 24-year-old's weaknesses have amplified as he familiarizes himself with a new life as Kyrie Irving’s backup, struggling to identify his own responsibilities off the bench.

His game is a laundry list of needless split-second compromises. Rozier bails out defenders with jump shots that haven't been falling, and rushes through motions that otherwise make him unguardable. He's playing on an edge nobody else can see. Instead of dribbling into the paint and lofting a high floater over shot blockers who want him to take that exact shot, as seen below, why not sprinkle some craft and misdirection into his game by pump-faking his way to the free-throw line?

Or instead of taking that shot, why not string out the play by dribbling into the corner, forcing Meyers Leonard to switch, then breaking him down from the perimeter, forcing help and creating an open look elsewhere? This play is not an unusual one for Rozier. He's either needlessly scrambling or uselessly placid, trying to fit in when the Celtics need him to stand out.

It’s common for players to let poor shooting/scoring numbers bleed into other parts of their game, but Rozier can’t afford to let that happen. He’s declined as a passer and for reasons that aren’t clear, has looked less comfortable than ever attacking the rim. His offensive rebound rate is less than half what it was last year, a crime given how dynamic he tends to be on the glass.

Rozier isn't the only Celtic struggling, but he's the most likely to get traded. And if this version of his game lingers for much longer, it's unclear why another team will be willing to surrender anything of value for the right to pay his next contract.

Brook Lopez's 3-Point Range is Madness

Look how far Brook Lopez is standing from the rim!

The furthest every NBA three-point line extends from the rim is 23.75 feet. (It's 22 feet from the corners.) Lopez has already made three shots from at least 28 feet away! This isn’t totally new—he took 16 from that distance last season—but his range is noticeably expanding in a way that’s turned him into Milwaukee’s very own/slightly taller Ryan Anderson. Even in today's era, this feels synthetic. Like, he's taken and made as many 30-footers as Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, and Chris Paul. How is any of this real life?

Jabari Parker is Playing Defense, Kinda!

It's too soon to say if this is small-sample-size theater or just one player's overnight transformation into Spider-Man, but Parker is allowing the fewest points per possession in isolation among all non bigs in the entire league, per Synergy Sports. In 28 possessions, opposing players have only made five shots with Parker as their primary defender. (Those who rank above? Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Wendell Carter Jr., and Domas Sabonis.)

The numbers might sound like a fluke but actually watch Parker do work and his quick hands and twitchy feet make this all feel somewhat sustainable. Here he is against James Harden and Jayson Tatum, two of the most difficult one-on-one covers in basketball.

Parker is jumpy, but in a good way, beating his man to spots after he boldly gets into their body to take away their shot. He displays a lateral quickness that, frankly, looks alien in his body. (Last season, Parker ranked 228th out of 263 players who defended at least 30 iso possessions. The year before that he was 268 out of 280.)

This is a far cry from claiming Parker is or will ever be a plus defender. But he's only 23 and the Bulls have been better (but still bad) on that end when he's on the floor. This might be more than nothing.

The Outlet Pass: The Draymond Green Trade Machine Edition published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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The Outlet Pass: The Draymond Green Trade Machine Edition

So, What is Draymond Green’s Trade Value?

In the aftermath of a verbal dispute between Kevin Durant and Draymond Green that still may turn into something more and has already yielded one suspension while puncturing Golden State’s aura of invincibility, all eyes are on Durant’s free agency. Is this the pivotable moment that will push him out the door, onward to New York City or Los Angeles or whichever city will next be blessed by his inextinguishable knack for introducing a basketball to the inside of a rim?

Speculation in this case is a tad premature, but the stakes are high enough to allow it. (A dynasty hangs in the balance!) Even though we haven’t reached Thanksgiving, it always felt like Golden State needed to have a hand in its own demise; they’re too talented to be done in by a superior opponent. There’s still time for cooler heads to prevail—Steph Curry's health-related on-court absence from the equation shouldn’t go unnoticed—but the entire situation allows another question to creep into the periphery: What is Draymond’s trade value?

This isn’t to say Golden State should or will trade the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate just to appease the unappeasable Durant. But it’s worth wondering what they could get, or would even want, in return. And outside the Bay Area’s cushy confines, where he’s ascended alongside the two greatest shooters who ever lived, what would Draymond even look in another team’s jersey?

Green will make $17.4 million this year and $18.5 million in 2019-20 before he becomes a 30-year-old unrestricted free agent. He never was a traditional All-Star, someone who can roll out of bed every morning with 20 points in their back pocket. Green’s value is instead very real and very specific to everything that makes Golden State so free and spacious. It’s not fair to ask if the Detroit Pistons would be better with Green instead of Blake Griffin, but the answer to that question is “no,” even though most league observers probably think Draymond’s overall on-court impact is more beneficial.

Even though he’s a three-time All-Star in his prime with nearly two years left on his deal, Green couldn’t fetch what the Cleveland Cavaliers received for Kyrie Irving or the Chicago Bulls got for Jimmy Butler. A lottery pick feels out of the question. But how do you weigh a key ingredient for the greatest team ever beside the temper that may be responsible for said team’s downfall? He’s one of four players averaging at least seven points, seven assists, and seven rebounds right now (the other three are Russell Westbrook, Ben Simmons, and LeBron James), but is also shooting 24 percent from deep with the fourth-worst turnover rate in the league.

Every dynasty that intends to stay on top must eventually alter its fundamental makeup on the fly. Having signed Durant, the Warriors (and Green!) know this better than anyone else. But their decision to publicly embarrass a franchise icon the way they did could reverberate in a way they couldn’t see, despite existing light years ahead of the competition.

What if Durant, suddenly emboldened by the call to reprimand Draymond, tells Bob Myers that he doesn’t want to leave. That he’s willing to re-sign long-term so long as Green is gone. And when does Green’s next contract complicate matters to the point where the fear of losing him for nothing/locking him up on an expensive, untradeable deal becomes too much? What are some hypothetical trades that make sense? Do they exist? I’m honestly not sure. Most teams that are in the time of their life cycle to have interest in Green can’t give the Warriors what they’d want in return, or have the type of salaries on their books to make it work (i.e. the Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Pelicans, Washington Wizards, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets).

But here are a few that, while flawed (repeat: these are flawed and mostly unrealistic because Draymond’s monetary value and skill-set are not easy to trade!) are fun enough to wonder about:

Portland Trail Blazers get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Zach Collins, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Moe Harkless

How much more enjoyable will the NBA playoffs be if this trade happens? Golden State (possibly) sustains its standing in the short-term while looking towards the future with a cost-controlled blue chipper who can pass, shoot, and protect the basket. Portland ostensibly lands the missing piece it needs to make a legitimate playoff run without breaking up its backcourt duo.

Miami Heat get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Kelly Olynyk and Justise Winslow

There’s no logical rationale behind this trade. I just want to see Draymond mixed with Heat culture.

Sacramento Kings get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Marvin Bagley III, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Obviously terrible for Sacramento but this organization feels due for an obviously terrible move. Bagley III may not ever be good, but it’s so rare for a team as great as the Warriors to add a prospect with that much potential. It makes them significantly worse for the rest of this season, but would it cost them the title? At the very least, Golden State could turn around and use Bagley III as a trade chip to add more immediate help.

Brooklyn Nets gets: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Spencer Dinwiddie and DeMarre Carroll

For an organization that may not want to sit around and test free agency, this is one way to spice up their relevance while selling high on a talented guard whose skill-set overlaps with D’Angelo Russell and Caris LeVert. LeVert’s injury stalled Brooklyn’s metamorphosis into a frisky playoff team this season, but next year, with LeVert, Green, Jarrett Allen, and a lottery pick? They wouldn’t be bad!

Utah Jazz get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, and Thabo Sefolosha

A decent rookie plus a serviceable small-ball four plus a veteran who doesn’t really play anymore? That sounds like a reasonable package. Of course, sending Green to a team that has Golden State in its crosshairs probably isn’t realistic. (That goes for Portland, too.) Either way, just imagine a frontcourt that pairs the last two Defensive Players of the Year, while solving Utah’s long-standing issue that is Gobert at the five in crunchtime of a critical playoff game. The Jazz slice into their cap space and shouldn’t feel confident about retaining Green once he hits unrestricted free agency in 2020, but until then they would be the league’s most intriguing title contender. The Warriors save money and get better (?) on offense.

Tom Thibodeau: Stranger in a Strange Land

Say what you will about Jimmy Butler's behavior, multiple generations of corrosive dysfunction, and every other obstacle Tom Thibodeau has faced since he became President of Basketball Operations for the Minnesota Timberwolves—some of which was clearly self-constructed—but the team’s putrid defense is impossible to ignore.

The Timberwolves have the worst defense in the NBA, and are surrendering about four more points per 100 possessions than they did four years ago, when...they finished with the worst defense in the NBA. Teams are brutalizing Minnesota on the offensive glass and taking total advantage of their non-existent hustle back in transition. Their only five-man unit that’s played major minutes and come close to yielding dignified results was Butler + The Bench, and that group no longer exists.

Not all the blame can rest on Thibodeau—Karl-Anthony Towns is still at his best chasing shots to block and, as ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out on a recent podcast, Andrew Wiggins doesn’t appear to enjoy playing basketball—but the team has yet to resemble one that knows how to defend uncomplicated NBA offense.

What exactly is Derrick Rose doing here? Does he think he should switch onto Iman Shumpert? Does he see Kosta Koufous through the corner of his eye and anticipate having to guard a high pick-and-roll? For whatever reason, Rose being this far from where he should against a speed demon like De’Aaron Fox is instant death. Plays like it aren’t uncommon.

They’re allowing 1.13 points per possession after a made shot while opponents gallop by at the third-fastest tempo in the league, per Inpredictable. They make no effort to match up and hardly ever sprint back. The play below came seconds after a Towns dunk, and they can't even use poor floor balance as an excuse! It's not new for the Thibs Timberwolves, but it’s still disturbing.

He entered this job as a revolutionary defensive tactician, someone whose militaristic instructions could squeeze water from a brick. But how does a league that’s never been more open about its desire to make life easy for offenses impact Thibodeau’s stock if/when he loses his job? Can he build a top-notch defense in today's NBA, which looks much different from what it was when he was Doc Rivers's assistant in Boston or head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Or did poor personnel decisions spell out his own doom?

Philly Helps Ben Simmons by Getting the Ball Out of His Hands

Ben Simmons is 22 years old and—according to some smart people, including his own general manager—one of the world's 20 best players. He’s already won Rookie of the Year, one playoff series, and only Russell Westbrook and LeBron James have more triple-doubles since his career debut. If he doesn’t go down as one of the 10 best passers his size (6’10”, for those unaware) who ever lived it’ll be a wild disappointment.

He'll always be a unique mismatch who terrorizes defenses caught between stopping his momentum and realizing the moment they do he’s going to fling a dart out to the three-point line, or put one of his teammates in a hot-air balloon to cram home a lob. On defense, Simmons’s height and build allow the Philadelphia 76ers to stick him on opposing centers (Al Horford, Myles Turner, etc.) when they need to hide Joel Embiid on someone who isn’t as threatening in the pick and roll. He’s very good and special and the 76ers should feel blessed to have him on their team.

But if last year was a hazily appealing honeymoon, the earliest returns on Simmons’s sophomore season have sometimes felt like the first valley in a marriage that’s yet to experience any conflict; an unsettling realization that the notable hitches in his game won’t improve anytime soon—he and Philly are officially in this through good times and bad. Regardless of how physically imposing, rare, and breathtaking Simmons can be, building a championship contender with someone who can’t shoot as a focal point is exceptionally difficult. It helped spur Saturday’s blockbuster trade for Jimmy Butler and, regardless of what the team says, has made Markelle Fultz expendable. This year, Philadelphia has the 26th best offense in the league with Simmons on the court (on par with the tanktastic New York Knicks). They play like a 36-win team with him and a 48-win team without him. (When Embiid isn’t on the court but Simmons is, the Sixers have the worst offense and worst defense in the NBA.)

Philly still likes to get Simmons going downhill, usually to his left, with a J.J. Redick ball screen near the free-throw line. It’s a tricky but increasingly predictable action that most defenses are starting to spot from a mile away, especially as they use it more and more towards the end of quarters. Here’s the best-case scenario: Malcolm Brogdon deciding Fultz is a threat in the weak-side corner.

More often than not, teams will either switch the screen and force Simmons/Redick to go one-on-one, or the floor will be too congested for him to do much of anything. Watch Michael Kidd-Gilchrist below.

It’s early, we’re months away from the trade deadline and buyout market. Someone like Kyle Korver can really help. But a smart thing Brett Brown has done to mitigate Philly's shortage of outside shooting is use Simmons more as an off-ball scorer. That sounds insane, but this is less about his gravity flying off a pin-down and more about physical duck-ins and and the most intimidating Hawk cut in the league.

The sequence seen above is similar to what the Oklahoma City Thunder ran last season as a way to involve Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. (As covered by Ben Falk over at Cleaning the Glass.) Embiid screens for Simmons near the elbow and gifts him a free dash into the paint.

Below, the Indiana Pacers are ready for it. Bojan Bogdanovic spins under Embiid’s pick while Myles Turner drops a bit, ready to absorb Simmons’s cut. The Sixers shrug their shoulders and get a layup.

As Brown tinkers with different ways to accentuate Simmons’s nightmarish athleticism (while obscuring his setbacks) in lineups that feature Embiid and Butler, look for this more and more.

According to Synergy Sports, post-ups and cuts accounted for 18.2 percent of Simmons’s possessions last year. Right now they’re at 28.4 percent, with Brown stacking his playbook with more ways to let Simmons attack from spots on the floor where he’s comfortable. This baseline out of bounds set is a great example.

Simmons inbounds the ball and then immediately carves out post position for an entry pass. Simple, yet effective! But these actions aren’t enough to prop up Philadelphia’s offense and ultimately nullify an aesthetic that’s occasionally drowsy. Don’t let anyone ever tell you Simmons’s inability to shoot doesn’t matter, be it from the corner, elbow, or free-throw line. He's awesome and has found ways to overcome it, but defenses know he isn't willing to pull-up from 15 feet and they guard him as such. That's more wart than novelty. Shooting helps! But harnessing his physicality on the block, along with different ways to leverage his speed in a half-court setting, is wise. They should/will lean into it even more now that Butler is on board.

All the Wizards Have is John Wall and Bradley Beal’s Subtle Chemistry

The Washington Wizards have won three in a row, but don't let that distract you from the fact that they're still an indifferent collection of untenable contracts. They don’t seem to care or try, and when they do it’s laughably stubborn. (So, you don't think I can make this unnecessarily difficult pull-up two? Watch this!) Put on a Wizards game for ten minutes and your first takeaway should be that they desperately want to flex on the world but don’t have a gym membership. Steps are missing. Corners get cut. (In one recent play against the Orlando Magic, Washington surrendered a put-back dunk after Bradley Beal’s shoe came off and “prevented” him from hustling back into the frame.)

Their carelessness is underlined by bizarre lineup decisions—that include Scott Brooks’s penchant to play all-bench groups that have so far been outscored by (what follows is not a misprint) 29.3 points per 100 possessions—and a frustratingly fine point guard who’s powerful enough to take over a game while also being the number one reason it slips through his team’s fingers.

But hope lives in even the darkest corners of the NBA. And as inconsequential as it might be, flashes of chemistry between Washington’s two best players have provided a fleeting semblance of expertise commonly associated with professional athletics.

In both plays seen below, subtlety is key. Beal’s defender is primarily concerned with letting him race up off a down screen to either curl into the paint or stop cold for a jumper. Tyler Johnson sees Dwight Howard coming and all he’s thinking about is that pick, and how he can get over on it. John Wall knows this.

Terrence Ross is similarly positioning in the next example, but this one is a bit more scripted. As Wall dribbles up the floor, he points to his right, where Austin Rivers is jogging around Kelly Oubre and Jeff Green. The intention is not for Rivers to catch the ball, though. Instead, his purpose is to clear out one side of the floor, force several of Orlando’s defenders to focus on his movement, and let Beal fall into an easy layup.

Wall drops in a beauty, and Beal gets his easiest two points of the night. These reads won’t save Washington’s season, but, at the very least, they prove the Wizards (might) have a pulse.

What is Wrong With Terry Rozier?

Terry Rozier has range, athleticism, and the reflexes of a cat. He can pull up from 26 feet or knife towards the elbow and elevate over whoever’s guarding him. He loops the ball as he dribbles, yo-yo-ing it in place with enough command and elegance to make you stop and count how many players rival his authority over any given possession. He does what/gets where he wants and fluidly snakes pick and rolls with the best of them. He thrives in narrow spaces without turning it over and his toolbox has it all: filthy hesitation moves, a nasty between-the-legs crossover, the type of step-back that should/might be illegal. Before he went 0-for-5 on Wednesday against the Bulls, Rozier was making a career-best 42.6 percent of his threes.

Everything written above is true. It’s also irrelevant. Through the first month of his fourth season (the last before his next contract), Rozier’s potency has stalled. In 13 fewer minutes than he averaged throughout last year’s breathtaking postseason run, the 24-year-old's weaknesses have amplified as he familiarizes himself with a new life as Kyrie Irving’s backup, struggling to identify his own responsibilities off the bench.

His game is a laundry list of needless split-second compromises. Rozier bails out defenders with jump shots that haven't been falling, and rushes through motions that otherwise make him unguardable. He's playing on an edge nobody else can see. Instead of dribbling into the paint and lofting a high floater over shot blockers who want him to take that exact shot, as seen below, why not sprinkle some craft and misdirection into his game by pump-faking his way to the free-throw line?

Or instead of taking that shot, why not string out the play by dribbling into the corner, forcing Meyers Leonard to switch, then breaking him down from the perimeter, forcing help and creating an open look elsewhere? This play is not an unusual one for Rozier. He's either needlessly scrambling or uselessly placid, trying to fit in when the Celtics need him to stand out.

It’s common for players to let poor shooting/scoring numbers bleed into other parts of their game, but Rozier can’t afford to let that happen. He’s declined as a passer and for reasons that aren’t clear, has looked less comfortable than ever attacking the rim. His offensive rebound rate is less than half what it was last year, a crime given how dynamic he tends to be on the glass.

Rozier isn't the only Celtic struggling, but he's the most likely to get traded. And if this version of his game lingers for much longer, it's unclear why another team will be willing to surrender anything of value for the right to pay his next contract.

Brook Lopez's 3-Point Range is Madness

Look how far Brook Lopez is standing from the rim!

The furthest every NBA three-point line extends from the rim is 23.75 feet. (It's 22 feet from the corners.) Lopez has already made three shots from at least 28 feet away! This isn’t totally new—he took 16 from that distance last season—but his range is noticeably expanding in a way that’s turned him into Milwaukee’s very own/slightly taller Ryan Anderson. Even in today's era, this feels synthetic. Like, he's taken and made as many 30-footers as Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, and Chris Paul. How is any of this real life?

Jabari Parker is Playing Defense, Kinda!

It's too soon to say if this is small-sample-size theater or just one player's overnight transformation into Spider-Man, but Parker is allowing the fewest points per possession in isolation among all non bigs in the entire league, per Synergy Sports. In 28 possessions, opposing players have only made five shots with Parker as their primary defender. (Those who rank above? Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Wendell Carter Jr., and Domas Sabonis.)

The numbers might sound like a fluke but actually watch Parker do work and his quick hands and twitchy feet make this all feel somewhat sustainable. Here he is against James Harden and Jayson Tatum, two of the most difficult one-on-one covers in basketball.

Parker is jumpy, but in a good way, beating his man to spots after he boldly gets into their body to take away their shot. He displays a lateral quickness that, frankly, looks alien in his body. (Last season, Parker ranked 228th out of 263 players who defended at least 30 iso possessions. The year before that he was 268 out of 280.)

This is a far cry from claiming Parker is or will ever be a plus defender. But he's only 23 and the Bulls have been better (but still bad) on that end when he's on the floor. This might be more than nothing.

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