#but fewer in select leagues and almost none by the time we get up to juniors

[dykeogenes]

international sports federations will look at the fact that 99% of elite male athletes are better than 99% of elite female athletes and be like oh is this an excuse to ignore the 1%? babygirl do you KNOW how many elite athletes there are in the world. yeah. yeah, hundred of thousands of them. yeah, that means that 1% is thousands of people. unfortunately you do have to reckon with the folks in the middle of your very impressive bimodal distribution. yeah i know. i know, the infinite diversity of human ability within those two categories is pretty inconvenient-- yeah.

it’s definitely a tough question to resolve, reconciling the reality of sex-based advantage with the fact that there are always going to be people with a range of natural advantages within and between those normal distributions-- for sure, it’s complicated, keeping things fair for the 99% while also finding a way to make them just and fair for the people in between. it’s hard! obviously we can’t just full-out abolish sex categories or blur them beyond coherence in most sports-- yeah, I know, the NHL and MLB are already gender neutral, and we’ve seen how that’s worked out for women trying to go pro-- absolutely-- yeah-- okay--

so are you going to come at this in a way that preserves the dignity and right to play of trans and intersex athletes & others who don’t fit your binary? oh, no? oh, you’re just going-- you’re just going to pretend that that they don’t exist. alright. wait, you’re NOT going to do that? so they do-- they do exist? oh, okay, you’re just going to say they aren’t allowed in sports. because you aren’t-- you aren’t creative enough to come up with a way of making things fair for everyone. okay. cool. this seems like a normal and really smart way of addressing this issue. i’m so glad you’re in charge. fucking wingnut dipshits.

[junker-town]

Are you a 5-star football recruit? Here are your odds of getting drafted

The top high school prospects have much better chances to make the NFL than others do, but let’s look more closely.

Being a five-star high school prospect correlates well with likely college success, and we know blue-chip recruits are much more likely than others to be drafted into the NFL.

But how well does five-star status predict your chances of becoming a draft pick? The answer varies, depending on a recruit’s class year and position.

From 2000-14, there were 522 five-star recruits, with 53 percent of them eventually drafted.

That is significantly higher than other star rankings in a recent draft, which saw four-stars drafted at a 20 percent clip, three-stars at 6 percent, and two-stars 3 percent.

Let’s look by individual recruiting class, since modern national rankings became a thing. Some players from the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes are still in school, so using these 16 years gives us a much clearer picture.

Over the years, a five-star’s odds of getting drafted have increased steadily.

For instance, the 2014 recruiting class saw the highest percentage of five-stars drafted, with 70 percent selected. Compare that with the 38 percent selected from 2000’s class.

SB Nation

Since 2011, the numbers have been increasing consistently. Over the last three recruit classes for which there are no remaining players in school (2012-14), almost two of every three five-star recruits were drafted. That positive trend appears to be continuing in the 2015-16 classes so far.

A big reason for these numbers getting better? Recruiting rankings getting more and more accurate due to advances in technology and exposure.

One of the most noticeable differences between the rankings from the early beginnings of the industry (around the turn of the century) and now is the smaller percentage of elite players who fall through the cracks.

”I think we do a better job these days of finding the in-state talents who stay in the state, from-a-smaller-place kind of guy. Like a Darren McFadden, who picked Arkansas and is from Arkansas, and no one else really paid close attention to him [Scout ranked McFadden the No. 9 running back nationally],” [Scout.com’s Scott] Kennedy said. “Twenty years ago, maybe no one paid attention to him at all. Now, everybody is going to see a guy like Darren McFadden, even in a small state like Arkansas, even though he stayed home and didn’t do the publicity tour like many of these guys have.”

Schools offering players scholarships earlier earlier in the annual recruiting calendar has also helped the industry get a head start on finding the best of the best.

It’s still probably easier to spot the future pros at some positions than it is at others.

To be sure, none of the following figures are based on adequate sample sets. For instance, there were only 16 five-star recruits labeled “athlete,” which basically means that player’s position will be determined in college, and just 15 as tight ends. Only one position, defensive line, even has 100 recruits in the sampled period, and even that isn’t enough from which to draw great conclusions.

But it is neat, so let’s get to it.

The following chart shows the frequency by which five-stars were picked by position from 2000-14, the recent five-year trend, and the difference between the two.

Four positions (athlete, defensive line, defensive back, and tight end) stick out over the other five (linebacker, quarterback, receiver, running back, and offensive line), with a clear split of at least 60 percent draftees for the prior group, against less than 50 percent drafted for the former group.

Interestingly, offensive line has the worst drafted rate, 43 percent. However, it also has the most improvement in the five-year sample spanning 2010-14, with 75 percent of five-stars in these classes becoming draft picks, including the 2012 class, in which all five five-star lineman were drafted. Recruiting services from 2000-04 were horrible at pegging the best offensive linemen: only six of the 24 five-star OL from then went on to be draft choices. Since then, five-star offensive linemen went on to be drafted at a 54 percent rate.

Defensive back has always been a strong position for the rankings, but an 80 percent drafted figure over the last five classes examined is exceptional.

Despite advanced quarterback training, private coaching, etc., the rankings aren’t much better over time at the game’s most high-profile position, judging by comparing the 2010-14 QB sample to the 2000-14 sample. However, comparing a 10-year average of 2000-09 against 2005-14, QB recruits were drafted at a 49 percent clip in the old sample, but a 59 percent clip in the more recent sample. This is a good example of how tiny sample sets can distort data.

The one position which has seen a stark downturn is receiver. In the five most recent classes, fewer than one in three five-star receivers have been drafted. From 2000-09, 55 percent of five-star wideouts were selected. But from 2005-14, that number dropped to 43 percent. It is worth mentioning that four of the five five-star receivers from the 2015 class have been drafted, with a fifth still in school, so there is the possibility that this is on the way back up. It would be interesting to examine the NFL’s changing rules on defensive back contact, protecting the quarterback, etc., and how it has impacted the league’s valuing of certain traits at receiver.

Now, as we wait for more data in upcoming years, let’s see how many of these trends continue and which ones change.

[polotanker6-blog]

2019 NFL preview: Bears will regress, but Mitchell Trubisky could help ease that

Yahoo Sports is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per weekday in reverse order of our initial 2019 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on July 31, the day before the Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason.

(Yahoo Sports graphics by Paul Rosales)

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In almost every sport, we assume progress will be linear. That goes for teams and players. If someone has a breakout season, we talk ourselves into bigger and better things the next season.

That does happen on occasion, of course. Sometimes the sudden emergence we see from a player or team in is the start of something really big. But not always.

With that, let’s talk about the 2019 Chicago Bears.

[Join or create a 2019 Yahoo Fantasy Football league for free today]

The Bears were a great story in 2018. The fantastic preseason trade for all-world edge rusher Khalil Mack took the defense to a phenomenal level. The offense, with first-year head coach Matt Nagy, was fun and exciting. The Bears went 12-4 and while they lost a heartbreaking playoff game to the Eagles, the season was a success. And for the most part, people figure the Bears will pick up where they left off and maybe even get better. Players seem to figure that last season was just the start.

“Our goal right now for defense is to be No. 1 across the board,” safety Eddie Jackson told SiriusXM. “Like I told them earlier, shout out to the ’85 Bears, but we want to top everything they’ve done.”

Teams sometimes take a step back after a huge improvement, especially when the foundation of success is defense. A great defensive performance doesn’t always carry over to the next season. Football Outsiders Almanac said every one of the last 10 defenses to lead the league in FO’s DVOA per-play metric got worse the next season. One only needs to look at the 2018 Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings for proof that a great defensive performance is hard to carry over. The Jaguars and Vikings had the top two defenses in 2017, in some order. Both defenses were still good in 2018 but neither was top two in any meaningful category, despite few personnel changes for either unit. Each team won five fewer games in 2018. The Jaguars and Vikings made their respective conference championship games two seasons ago, and missed the playoffs last season. The margin of error in the NFL can be really slim.

There are other reasons to believe the Bears can’t repeat their nearly historic season on defense. They picked off 27 passes, and that’s very hard to do again. The Bears were the third luckiest team in the NFL when it came to injuries, according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric, and injury luck is mostly random (and very important). Chicago should plan on a few more injuries this season. And the Bears defense took some hits this offseason, particularly at the top.

Vic Fangio was perhaps the best coordinator in the league last season, and we can’t just ignore the impact of him leaving to coach the Denver Broncos. His schemes were a huge part of Chicago’s success. Former Colts coach Chuck Pagano replaces Fangio. Defensive backs coach Ed Donatell and outside linebackers coach Brandon Staley left for Denver with Fangio. The Bears didn’t retain inside linebackers coach Glenn Pires or assistant defensive backs/safeties coach Roy Anderson. That’s a lot of turnover. Safety Adrian Amos and slot cornerback Bryce Callahan were big parts of the Bears success as well, and they both left in free agency.

The Bears won’t turn into an average defense. The Bears defense will still be good, but probably not as great as last season. They’ll need to improve in other areas to counter-balance that almost certain regression. And the most obvious way is through quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.

Story continues

Trubisky is the wild card for the Bears. To some he’s still a raw and improving talent who showed real signs of progress last season, at least before a shoulder injury in November. For others, he’s too inconsistent and he hasn’t really shown upside like Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes, two future stars the Bears passed on to take Trubisky. Trubisky doesn’t profile as the type of quarterback who can carry a team by himself and be a top-five quarterback. But the Bears don’t need that. They need a quarterback who can make enough plays to support a defense that, while it might not be miles ahead of the rest of the NFL again, will be very good. For most of last season, Trubisky was that kind of quarterback. An improvement is certainly possible, given his relative lack of experience and draft pedigree. Having the innovative Nagy calling plays is a plus, as well.

The Bears were so much better on defense than any other NFL team, they could regress in a significant way and still be the best defense in the league. And perhaps the offense, with its young quarterback, improves enough to make up for whatever step back the defense takes. Chicago should feel it can be one of the best teams in the league again. It just might not look exactly the same as last season.

Coach Matt Nagy had a big first season for the Chicago Bears. (AP)

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We won’t count the loss of Vic Fangio in the offseason grade, though clearly that is the biggest loss the team had. The Bears lost safety Adrian Amos and slot cornerback Bryce Callahan in free agency and replaced them with Ha-Ha Clinton Dix and Buster Skrine. The Bears probably got worse at both positions. Jordan Howard was a productive back but not a great fit for Matt Nagy’s scheme, and he was traded to the Eagles. The Bears signed Mike Davis and drafted David Montgomery, and those players are probably better fits. Those two, along with Tarik Cohen, make an intriguing backfield. Cordarelle Patterson gives the Bears’ return game a nice boost. The Bears didn’t have a first- or second-round pick; they gave up the first-round pick in the Khalil Mack trade and sent a second-round pick to move up in the 2018 draft for receiver Anthony Miller. Overall, it’s hard to say the Bears got better.

GRADE: C-minus

While there are reasons to believe the Bears won’t repeat what they did on defense in 2018, there’s still a load of talent on that side of the ball. Safety Eddie Jackson, cornerback Kyle Fuller and edge rusher Khalil Mack were first-team All-Pros. Defensive lineman Akiem Hicks finally got some due and made his first Pro Bowl. Others like middle linebacker Roquan Smith, defensive tackle Eddie Goldman and edge rusher Leonard Floyd have a lot of talent too. The Bears defense ranked at or near the top in practically every category last season. They stopped the run, rushed the quarterback, forced turnovers and shut down passing games at remarkable levels. When your foundation is a defense with this much talent, things are looking good.

OK, time to talk about the Bears kicking situation. That has been a story throughout the offseason, since the moment of Cody Parkey’s infamous “double doink” miss to end the Eagles playoff loss. Parkey was cut and the Bears can’t feel good about their candidates to replace him. The Bears brought in plenty of no-name kickers and none stood out. Eddy Pineiro and Elliott Fry are the last two standing, and unless you’ve followed the Bears kicking news closely, it’s likely you’ve never heard of either. Elliott came from the defunct Alliance of American Football, and Pineiro was acquired in a trade with the Raiders. Neither has kicked in an NFL game. This is a frightening situation for a team with big dreams, and the immense pressure and attention in Chicago surrounding the position won’t help.

If you want to tell yourself a story that Mitchell Trubisky is on the verge of a nice breakthrough, it’s not crazy. Trubisky was the second overall pick of the 2017 draft; he has obvious talent. He had only 13 college starts, so he needed more development time than many of his peers. He was with a coaching staff in 2017 that had no idea how to develop him. Then last season he was paired with Matt Nagy, in a complicated and new offense, and was doing well before a shoulder injury:

Pre-injury (10 games): 2,469 yards, 20 TD, 9 INT, 7.7 yards per attempt, 97.7 passer rating

Post-injury (4 games): 754 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 6.7 yards per attempt, 88.9 rating

You can explain the drop in play to the injury, and winter weather. Conversely, you can also say the numbers through 10 games were inflated by a six-touchdown game against a terrible Buccaneers defense. But mostly, Trubisky was fine in his second season. He added value as a runner, which has always been part of his overall package as a player. He could be more accurate and definitely needs to be more consistent, but if you believe that quarterbacks entering their third season should still be awarded a little bit of patience, Trubisky is on a positive path.

No need to waste anyone’s time here ...

Khalil Mack is the Chicago Bears' latest defensive star. (AP)

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From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “When it comes to rookie wideouts, it’s important to remember the Class of 2014 (which went bonkers) was a gigantic outlier. Usually, it’s encouraging simply to see a first-year receiver keep his head above water. And Anthony Miller was able to do that last year, with a handy 33-423-7 debut. Considering Miller had a nagging shoulder injury, which required offseason surgery, that’s not a bad return.

“Miller was limited through offseason work, but should be fine for summer camp. We can’t draft him as an assumed fantasy starter, but there’s all sorts of plausible upside here; I love that he was comped to Doug Baldwin a year ago. Miller is merely being selected as the WR52 in early Yahoo drafts, around the 125th overall pick. He’s one of my favorite targets for a WR 4-5, an upside play that I won’t necessarily need to start Week 1. Keep an eye peeled on Miller in August.”

[Yahoo fantasy preview: Chicago Bears]

If you want another reason the Bears could regress, just look at their strength of schedule. The Bears had the second easiest strength of schedule last season, via Football Outsiders’ DVOA per-play metric. That changes dramatically this season. The Bears are projected to have the fifth hardest schedule this season according to Warren Sharp, who uses Las Vegas over/under win totals to estimate schedule strength. The Bears play four projected top-five opponents, tied for the most in the league, and seven top-10 opponents, and only the Broncos play more than that. The Bears could be just as good this season and not finish 12-4, given the massive shift in strength of schedule.

CAN A BEARS RECEIVER TAKE A BIG STEP?

Part of getting Mitchell Trubisky to the next level is his receivers stepping up as well. That group wasn’t bad last season, but it still seems there’s a higher level for at least three of them: tight end Trey Burton and receivers Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. Burton was OK in his first Chicago season, but can improve off a 54-569-6 line. Robinson and Miller should be healthier. Robinson had 754 yards a year removed from a torn ACL. He said he’s feeling much better this offseason, and 1,000 yards seems to be a fair expectation. Miller caught seven touchdowns as a rookie but had only 423 yards. He was playing through a bad shoulder injury and had offseason surgery. He has exciting potential. It seems fair to assume Robinson has a bigger season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Miller and Burton did too.

We can at least imagine a scenario in which the Bears defense remains the best in the NFL, and the offense takes huge strides. Matt Nagy is a creative playcaller, there are talented players all around quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and Trubisky has the ability to make a big leap. We saw flashes of what Trubisky can be last season. While Trubisky doesn’t seem like he has the upside of being an MVP candidate (though he was the most popular bet to win MVP in Las Vegas this summer, mostly because of the long odds), he can be a good, productive quarterback. The Bears could make a big improvement on offense now that Nagy’s scheme has been established and there’s a good amount of continuity on offense. A 12-4 team with a lot of room to grow on offense has to be considered a preseason Super Bowl contender.

In 2016, an Oakland Raiders team led by Khalil Mack went 12-4. We expected the Raiders to be on the upswing, because we don’t figure on teams winning 12 games and disappearing right after. The Raiders haven’t had a winning season since, and probably won’t have one this year either. That’s not to say the Bears were a total fluke or will go the way of the Raiders since that one magical season, but it’s possible. Maybe Mitchell Trubisky doesn’t take the next step. Perhaps the NFL figures out Matt Nagy’s offense. The defense won’t fall off a cliff, but the 2018 Jaguars had a very good defense and went 5-11. When a team coming off four double-digit loss seasons in a row suddenly goes 12-4, there should be some skepticism about that team’s staying power.

I wasn’t going to disrespect the Bears by putting a Packers team coming off a 6-9-1 season ahead of them in these rankings. The Bears should get the benefit of the doubt, and the Packers have a lot to prove. But when we make our season predictions, I’ll probably pick the Packers to win the NFC North. There are too many regression factors for the Bears to ignore. I don’t think the Bears will completely fall off. Mitchell Trubisky will continue to develop and the Bears should get a wild-card spot. I just don’t think they will improve upon last season.

32. Arizona Cardinals

31. Miami Dolphins

30. Oakland Raiders

29. New York Giants

28. Cincinnati Bengals

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

26. Washington Redskins

25. Detroit Lions

24. Buffalo Bills

23. New York Jets

22. Denver Broncos

21. San Francisco 49ers

20. Jacksonville Jaguars

19. Atlanta Falcons

18. Tennessee Titans

17. Carolina Panthers

16. Minnesota Vikings

15. Seattle Seahawks

14. Baltimore Ravens

13. Pittsburgh Steelers

12. Houston Texans

11. Dallas Cowboys

10. Cleveland Browns

9. Green Bay Packers

8. Philadelphia Eagles

– – – – – – –

Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab

Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/2019-nfl-preview-bears-will-regress-but-mitchell-trubisky-could-help-ease-that-122340123.html?src=rss

[freebestbettingtips]

Premier League tactical analysis: Manchester City vs Liverpool

New Post has been published on https://bestfreebettingtips.com/premier-league-tactical-analysis-manchester-city-vs-liverpool/

Premier League tactical analysis: Manchester City vs Liverpool

This was a big game for both teams, but even more so for Manchester City. Pep Guardiola had to face one of his football nightmares, Jürgen Klopp, one of the few coaches that has a positive record against him. The result was one of the best tactical shows you can have in today’s football era. More importantly, Liverpool were seven points ahead in the table, unbeaten this season, and losing against them would mean a possible early goodbye to the Premier League title for Manchester City.

The game didn’t disappoint. Both teams showed an outstanding quality of football, despite City having two of the last three Premier League matches against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. In this tactical analysis, we show how Manchester City managed to beat the league leaders, Liverpool, and step back into the Premier League title race.

Hectic start followed by an intense tactical battle

In previous games, Pep Guardiola had been quite inconsistent in his tactical approach against Klopp teams. Perhaps this is because of the difficulties he has had to beat them. Looking for ways to diminish their intense pressure and their attacking strength, the initial set-up and player selection had varied a lot.

This time, he opted to play closer to what is considered normal in terms of tactical approach and the type of players chosen. In that sense, Manchester City started with a classic 4-3-3, with some surprises in the defence. Danilo and Laporte began as wing-backs, and regular names in the remaining positions. Fernandinho resumed as the defensive midfielder, with David and Bernardo Silva the inside midfielders and Sane, Aguero and Sterling in attack.

The first seven minutes were hectic. Insane pressure resulted in constant changes in possession, blocking both team’s creative ability. This resulted in both sides making several mistakes on the ball, or just losing the ball under pressure. It also meant that most of the game developed close to the middle of the pitch without clear goalscoring chances.

After this initial stage of high pressure, both teams started trying to inflict damage the way they usually do. Manchester City kept possession, rotating the ball looking to create spaces. Liverpool meanwhile produced very fast transitions and tempo, looking to win the 1v1 duels that they were able to create.

The intense pressure imposed over the creativity of both teams, however. The resulting game had only 15 shots on target, nine for Manchester City and six for Liverpool. This is an uncommon and below average figure for two very attacking teams. Even though Pep Guardiola’s team had more shots, xG for Liverpool was higher at 1.22 compared to Manchester City’s 1.05. Liverpool had few but clearer chances, as Manchester City had issues getting closer to Allison’s goal, forcing them to try long shots as a way of attack.

Key to avoiding the attacking strength of Liverpool was Fernandinho. With the Brazilian back as the sole defensive midfielder, he had a key role in today’s game. He stepped high up the pitch to put pressure on the initial build-up phase of Liverpool, recovered key balls in front of Manchester City’s defensive line, and helped the defensive line when outnumbered by Liverpool.

According to Wyscout, he recovered 14 balls, the highest of both teams and well above his 2018 average of 10.17. This is a warning flag for Guardiola, who has not been able to find a replacement matching Fernandinho’s quality. Stones and Gündogan have been tried without success during the last month. The Brazilian is now 33 years old, and it should become a priority to find a replacement for him during the next transfer window.

Even though City were controlling the game, they weren’t able to get the ball closer to Allison’s goal. Previous games had shown that the most effective defensive setup for Klopp  against Guardiola, was a five-man midfield. This system leaves the central midfielder as a free man to help to cover spaces won by Manchester City.

Jordan Henderson had performed this role brilliantly before, but yesterday Klopp decided to position the team higher. The three forwards pressed high up, supported by a second line of three in Wijnaldum, Henderson and Milner. These three had to cover larger spaces, making it more difficult for the Reds to block City’s build-up phase. Liverpool were subsequently forced to be a larger team than they usually are.

Bernardo Silva caught this movement and did an excellent job of pulling Milner and Henderson far from their defensive positions. This left larger spaces between them and Liverpool’s defensive line to be exploited.

The Portuguese is playing at a superlative level. He doesn’t have as notorious a role as his teammates, but shows an outstanding tactical intelligence to disarm the rival’s defensive shapes. Unusually for a more creative player like him, he also contributes to the defensive performance of the team.

According to Wyscout, he recovered 10 balls during the game, the second most of Manchester City after Fernandinho. He was also the player that covered most distance during the game with 13.7km.

The larger spaces left between Liverpool’s midfield and the defensive line was smartly exploited by Aguero, also a key player in the game. He swapped positions excellently with David Silva, the latter positioning himself closer to the central defenders. This let Aguero fall back to connect with the build-up phase of Manchester City, receiving with enough spaces to turn around and increase the tempo of the attacking phase. As mentioned before this didn’t translate in clear chances for Pep Guardiola’s team. It was, however, enough move the build-up phase closer to Liverpool’s defensive line.

Having Manchester City more comfortable allowed them to score the opening goal. A weak defensive action by Lovren was anticipated by Aguero and finished by the Argentinian with an unstoppable shot just before half time.

When more comfortable, more suffered

The second half started in a similar tone, which favoured Manchester City. They maintained good possession and didn’t let Liverpool shoot with danger at Ederson’s goal. The Brazilian goalkeeper had a decent game with the ball in his feet but didn’t provide a lot of comfort with his hands. He made some doubtful decisions on high balls, and a lack of communication with Stones that almost ended up with an own goal by the goalkeeper.

Laporte’s positioning as left-wing back was surprising, and his performance was not stellar. It is a position he has played a few times only, and even though Mendy is injured and Delph was suspended, Guardiola still had Danilo and Walker as alternatives, although none of them is left-footed as Laporte.

Maybe the reason is just because of that left foot restriction, but my feeling is that there was something else. Given how City was able to break Liverpool’s lines, it made sense to use a left-wing back that would attack less, as it actually happened. This relieved Salah from more defensive duties and resulted in fewer Liverpool players in the middle. Whether that was the reason or not, that actually happened and was a plus for Manchester City.

When City were more comfortable, Liverpool were able to cross twice. Kompany lost Firmino’s mark and let the Brazilian score an easy header for Liverpool. The game was turning in Liverpool’s favour, with City positioning higher under the pressure of having to win. This allowed them to quickly counter-attack a slower defence, the same way they had for their few clear occasions in the first half.

But Liverpool had their own medicine. After a quick recovery by Ederson, Manchester City needed only two passes – from Danilo to Sterling, and then to Sane – and a very smart distracting movement by Aguero to score the second goal and give Manchester City the edge. The German didn’t actually have a great performance. His passing and control was imprecise, but he finished a well-constructed attack beautifully. The last 20 minutes was mostly Liverpool trying vainly and without clarity to equalise, mostly with long shots and crosses that were comfortable for City’s defence.

Back to basics

After the negative run that Manchester City went through, Aguero said in an interview that they had to back to their basics. They did that, maybe without the attacking depth one is used to seeing in them. In front they had the best team of the Premier League, and they couldn’t afford to lose again. Manchester City played a smart game and earned three points that put them back in the race.

If you love tactical analysis, then you’ll love the digital magazines from totalfootballanalysis.com – a guaranteed 100+ pages of pure tactical analysis covering topics from the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga and many, many more. Get your copy of the FIRST of two December issues for just ₤4.99 here, or the SECOND of the December issues with an annual membership right here.

[connerjterrell]

MYGSR Preview

Well boys, it’s that time of year again. Each year this league continues to grow and find new ways to make it interesting. This year, we finally pulled the trigger on a sick ass perpetual trophy that will hopefully be passed on for years. If you didn’t have the fire inside to win before, being able to proudly display that big ass trophy should provide more motivation than a Marcus Luttrell speech. I’d show every girl that I brought home from the bars (which is maybe 2-3 per year) that shiny bitch.

“Hey babe, you see that? Yep, I got that trophy for having unreal dick game. Lol jk I won my very important fantasy league with all my friends. Yes, it has to stay in the room while we fuck.”

You know it’s almost football season when the calendar flips to August and the group chat is getting aggressively personal while debating various college and fantasy football topics. The only thing that would make it better is if Justin was getting his fake taken away and trying to fight Kyle at the BG bars.

Before I go any further, I want to welcome our newest member, Peyton Spiess. Peyton, it says a lot about your dedication to sports that we selected you to be the tenth member. You have the privilege to join-in on year three of what may become one of the greatest fantasy leagues of all time. Welcome to it, baby.

A few nights ago I was looking through our two-year league history, and thought it’d be a gnarly idea to compile all of the statistics from both years. I used some #analytics to create some next-level spread sheets and keep it all organized. Those are pictured here. Hey did you guys know Justin was an analytics minor? Of course you do. He did help me figure out how to use filters in excel so props for that. After compiling wins, losses, and points for both years, I found some interesting trends that I’d love to share.

Bailey

Bailey’s fantasy football career is barely better than the night he had in Cincinnati last month. Bailey has tied for the worst win percentage (.360), the second least points-per-game (114.1) and the third-most points-per-game allowed (127.8).  Most of these statistics can likely be attributed to Bailey’s mind-boggling roster decisions. Some of which include holding three quarterbacks on the roster for multiple weeks.

Sawyer

As bad as Bailey seems, Sawyer has been as essentially as bad. Sawyer also has tied-for-the-worst win percentage, but has one fewer loss due to a tie with Justin in season 1. Sawyer is third to last in points per game (118.3). Sawyer’s average defense has really been the only thing to keep him above Bailey. I really just wanted to give Sawyer his own paragraph so we could point out that he's been as bad as Bailey and probably talks the most shit TO Bailey about fantasy. 

Cody

So I know you’re all wondering; since Bailey had second-to-last points per game, who had the least? I’ll tell ya: Cody Cocksuckin Cowgill. Home boy literally went 7-5 and made the playoffs by scoring 110.4 points per game, dead last in the league. Really doesn’t even make sense. He was “small but mighty” and by defying mathematics, he won some damn ballgames. Translation: he sucked but everyone shit the bed when they played him. It makes me sad that Cody fell from grace – to be honest he never really rose to grace either, but I love the guy anyhow.

Nick

Another unmistakable anomaly in this league comes from none other than Sir Nicholas Burke. Nick is a very close second place for points scored. He falls only 15 total points fewer than first place. You see these numbers and you’re like “wow! he must be a fixture in the playoffs!”, but you’d be mistaken. Nick somehow managed to wind up just barely ahead of Bailey and Sawyer with only ten wins. TEN WINS in TWO SEASONS -- almost impossible considering how much he scored. Then again his “fantasy defense” got absolutely steam-rolled every week and lead to him averaging the most points allowed over two years.

Other than what I’ve already covered, most of the statistics were fairly normal. It’s nice to see how your teams shake up with everyone over two seasons. Nick and Cody’s stats are by far the funniest.

I look forward to writing many more of these in the following season. Y’all better be doing your research because the draft and the season are DAMN close baby. I’m really looking forward to see how Bailey botches his draft picks this year – last year he made three good picks so he’s definitely due for a shitter. I’m sure Ethan is putting in an inordinate amount of research into the draft only for him to start out hot but lose 7 games in a row with a bunch of guys who are widely labeled “value picks.” I know Justin will try to draft a bunch of unproven rookies to try and carry his time like they miraculously did last year. I know Nick is also putting in a shit ton of research only for his team to get their shit pumped by every offense he goes up against. I know Kyle is going to be buying the hype on any and every big name player and come up with some goofy ass name for his team. I know Sawyer is probably reading Bleacher Report to cultivate his draft strategy. I know Gueedo isn’t researching dick, and he won’t be making any roster moves but somehow his team will win games. I know Eazy-E is out there in Chi town being a G, but I couldn’t tell ya how he prepares for the draft. I couldn’t tell you what the fuck Peyton is doing but he better have his shit together. I know I’m sitting here high as balls trying to finish this damn thing because I’ve been working on it for a solid three days. Good luck boys, and as the ever-wise philosopher Lil Pump once said: ESKETIT

p.s. You should definitely read that last paragraph while playing Lil Pump’s Esketit - shit will have you so hype you’re ready to strap the fuck up. Also every time I read “esketit”  in my head it sounds like I’m describing the breast of someone who lives in an igloo.

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Juggernaut Index, No. 26: Colts fans, fantasy owners still waiting on Andrew Luck

Hey, look who’s finally doing things with footballs. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

The Indianapolis Colts will go as far this season as quarterback Andrew Luck can carry them, and it’s not yet clear that he’s capable of carrying them anywhere at all. Two weeks ago, Luck made a couple dozen short throws with footballs that weren’t quite official NFL-size and, understandably, the Colts community was pretty pumped…

IT’S HAPPENING OMG OMG pic.twitter.com/VyCR6llLRW

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) June 12, 2018

Woo. Plan the parade route, Indy.

[Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues are open: Sign up now for free!]

As everyone knows, Luck missed the entire 2017 season following January labrum surgery. Colts news coverage over the past year-and-a-half has been a carnival ride of bogus pronouncements, wishcasting, skepticism, setbacks and wild speculation. It is, without question, a very good sign that Luck is throwing again. A great sign. Excellent news. The expectation is for Luck to develop something close to a regular season throwing routine that he can carry into camp:

“Big picture, my goal was to be able to throw as much as I need to, like on a game week,” Luck said. “A Wednesday, Thursday, Friday at practice and then Sunday, let it loose, no count, nothing. You’ve got to go and let it go. So that’s what I’m preparing for, that’s why right now I throw Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays and Fridays to mimic a three-day sort of practice week and then a Friday as a Sunday as a game week.”

Sounds like a solid plan. It also sounds as if Luck is beginning to feel legitimately closer to the pre-surgery version of himself. When asked if he expects to play the opener this season, he told reporters, “I’ll be playing. I believe it in my bones.”

Fantasy owners obviously can’t treat him as a sure thing, especially at a time when the quarterback position is as deep as it’s ever been. Luck’s FF Calculator average draft position seems aggressive (104.1, QB12) considering the quality and reliability of the players selected in his range. Drafting him at any price means that you will almost certainly need to roster a second playable QB. That’s not the greatest use of limited bench spots. But let’s also remember that Luck, at his absolute best, was a 4700-yard, 40-TD passer. He threw for 4240 yards and 31 scores in a year in which he played with the labrum tear. There’s little question that a healthy Luck would rank as a top-six fantasy quarterback.

If you’re still trying to talk yourself into Luck, please note that new head coach Frank Reich is fresh off a Super Bowl win as OC for the Eagles. Reich was essential in Carson Wentz’s development, plus he’s the guy who prepped Nick Foles to star in the postseason. These are good bullet points for a coaching resume.

Head coach Frank Reich was the most important offseason addition in Indy. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

We don’t have to make any final decisions on Luck’s draft value today, so let’s please keep an open mind. The recent news has been encouraging. At the very least, we shouldn’t run away from him quite the way we did last summer. His line should improve following the draft day addition of mauling guard Quenton Nelson.

The Colts’ offense was a start-to-finish mess without Luck last season, ranking dead-last in yards per play and 30th in passing. If he can’t get back to full health, none of this team’s skill players are particularly interesting for fantasy purposes.

Indy’s receiving corps is T.Y. Hilton and, um … some other dudes

T.Y. Hilton led the NFL in receiving yardage two seasons ago with Luck at the controls of the offense, catching 91 balls for 1448 yards. Last year, with Jacoby Brissett running the show (and rarely looking downfield), Hilton slipped to just 966 yards on 57 receptions. He was painfully boom-or-bust, delivering three games with 150 or more yards and a whopping eight games with 30 or fewer. Hilton is a dynamic player in his prime, 28 years old, and his chemistry with Luck is well established. He’s also a member of the best-shape-of-his-life club, which can’t hurt. If Luck gets right, Hilton will as well. His recent ADP reflects the fantasy community’s optimistic outlook on his quarterback (33.4, WR14). Hilton has never seen more than 16 red-zone targets in any season, so don’t expect a double-digit TD total.

Not surprisingly, T.Y. Hilton’s numbers took a huge nosedive without Luck. (Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini)

The battle for second and third-receiver duties is wide open behind Hilton — which is to say, there are no particularly intriguing candidates. Indianapolis signed the competent-if-not-spectacular Ryan Grant to a one-year deal back in March. Grant established new career highs in receptions (45), yards (573) and TDs (4) for Washington last season, but never topped 85 yards in any game. Front office fave Chester Rogers is entering his third pro season with a relatively unobstructed path to snaps and targets. Health has been an issue for him, but he’s flashed field-flipping ability a time or two — notably in a 104-yard performance against Pittsburgh last year. Rogers could be a decent what-if flier in the final rounds of deep drafts, depending on Luck’s status.

Fifth-round rookie Daurice Fountain (Northern Iowa) and sixth-rounder Deon Cain (Clemson) are in the mix as well. Both receivers have size enough to function as red-zone threats. Fountain had a superhuman pro day, posting a 42.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-2 broad jump. Cain has generated low-level buzz during the offseason, though he never actually delivered a huge season at the collegiate level. He has good speed for his size (4.43, 210), but ordinary leaping ability (33.5-inch vert). If you’d like to take a shot with one of these guys in dynasty, I’d lean Fountain. But, again, Cain is the guy who seemed to impress onlookers during OTAs.

Absurdly, tight end Jack Doyle led the Colts in receptions last year (and finished second overall at his position), hauling in 80 passes for 690 yards and four touchdowns. He was a short-range catch-and-fall receiver, ranking behind nearly all tight ends in average target distance (5.3) and yards per reception (8.6) according to Player Profiler. We can expect Indy’s offense to be far less predictable/numbing under Reich and new OC Nick Sirianni, so Doyle’s numbers should take a hit.

This team added Eric Ebron via free agency, and wow are the coaches excited about him…

“[Ebron] is really smart,” Reich said. “I knew that because we did our homework before he got here. We knew he was a smart player. But he’s like really a highly intelligent football player. And that’s really good because you want to use a guy with the versatility that he has and move him around and call all kinds of things with him. That helps. And he’s an explosive athlete.”

Detroit fans probably would have been willing to help Ebron pack his bags this spring, having seen enough drops and disappearances during his four seasons with the Lions. But it’s not unusual to see a tight end make a production leap on his second contract, so we need to keep Ebron’s name on the cheat sheet. He’s reportedly lining up everywhere in Indy’s offense. I’d prefer him to Doyle, which isn’t saying much.

Frank Gore is gone, replaced by a committee

Reich’s committee backfield in Philly was a massive success, so it should come as no surprise that he’s preparing to go RBBC with the Colts. It’s happening. No back on this team’s depth chart is obviously deserving of a featured role, so there should be little controversy regarding this potential three or four-man rotation. Marlon Mack gets a share, Robert Turbin gets a share and Ole Miss rookie Jordan Wilkins gets a share. Mack will be drafted ahead of the others (ADP 70.6, RB32), but strictly as a flex. Wilkins looks the part of an NFL back and he produced a solid year in the SEC, but he wasn’t much of a yards-after-contact runner. Pass protection is a concern as well.

Rookie running back Nyheim Hines could get interesting for PPR purposes. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The most interesting chess piece in this backfield might just be rookie Nyheim Hines, a fourth-round pick from NC State. He’s already lined up everywhere for the Colts, and it’s only June. Hines is a gifted returner, too. He’s a fun-size back (5-foot-8) who won’t make a living between the tackles, but he offers excellent speed (4.38) and receiving ability. Hines caught 89 passes over three collegiate seasons, and he ran for 1113 yards and 12 scores on 193 carries last year (5.6 YPC). He’s a name to know in PPR formats.

Of course none of these guys will be terribly exciting unless Luck is the NFL’s comeback player of the year. He’s the franchise cornerstone, the key to everything else. Let’s hope Luck can return to form, because his ceiling in a healthy season is the No. 1 player at our game’s highest scoring position.

2017 Offensive Stats & Ranks

Points per game – 16.4 (30th in NFL) Pass YPG – 180.8 (30) Rush YPG – 103.8 (22) Yards per play – 4.6 (32) Plays per game – 62.1 (23)

Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Buffalo, 31) Miami, 30) NY Jets, 29) Baltimore, 28) Oakland, 27) Cleveland, 26) Indianapolis

Follow the Yahoo fantasy football crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, Brad Evans, Liz Loza, Scott Pianowski and Tank Williams

[roywaelchi]

Happy 420 – Skateboarding & Weed?!

Today is the 20th of April, also known as 420. For lots of guys and girls, this date is a special day to celebrate one of the greatest gifts, nature gave to mankind. Okay just kidding…on the occasion of this day, we’d like to take a look at the special relationship of skateboarding and weed and also make some recommendations of clips!

To get rid of one of the biggest stereotypes at the very beginning: No, not all skateboarders are stoners! No, smoking weed won’t make you a better skateboarder! Nonetheless, there seems to be some kind of connection between skateboarding and pot.

What is 4/20 and why?

The urban legend says that there were some high school students in the 70s who always met 4:20 at a special place to get high. If you see 4/20 as a date in American Englisch it’s simply the 20th of April. We never gonna find out if this is the real story, but for now, it’s common sense.

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Skateboarding and Pot

When looking at the skateboarding industry you’d almost think, “Weed Sells”. Just think about HUF’s Plantlife Socks, loads of decks with more or fewer hints towards dope, pot, ganja or however you want to call it, as well as the never stopping hype about rasta colorways. And of course there also lots of pros directly exhibiting and celebrating their consumption in interviews, parts and in the world of social media. However – even if some will get mad at this point – when looking at skateboarding as a sport, it seems to be one of the most tolerant disciplines out there. While there seems to be a new affair connected to “illegal substances” in mass sports every few weeks, the whole issue is far more relaxed in skateboarding.

We can all be blessed by this fact! Just think about some great guys wouldn’t be allowed to take part in contests or the participants of Street League would have to go for a urine sample after their run. It would be very interesting to see how the starting fields of the biggest contests on this planet would look like if pot was banned in skateboarding. While thinking about that another juicy issue pops up. Have you ever thought about how the Olympic Games will handle this topic? Would all the guys stop getting stoned from time to time or will they just give a fuck about it, like Mike Sinclair thinks: “It’s just the rider’s choice, and most riders that I personally know would rather smoke weed than go to the Olympics.”?

Getting High With Antwuan Dixon

But to return to the current topic: What is the thing with skateboarders and weed? While some psychoanalysts would state it could be the rebellious attitude of skateboarding with ignoring social conventions that enhances the affinity towards pot, others may say the effects of weed have a direct impact on skateboarding. THC could reduce fear, increase self-esteem und lower pain sensitivity. And it seems like some skaters can better focus on the upcoming line or drug while being stoned.

So if you never experienced being stoned or being stoned while skating, we don’t want to tempt you. There loads of people who simply can’t handle it, who are wasting away and don’t get things done because of their consumption. These negative side effects have already ruined some lives and promising careers. Not to mention those heavy slams of totally wasted guys. Guess it’s not funny to land with your face right in the flat while trying to drop in…but hey: “Live and let live.” Some may enjoy getting wasted on beer and booze, some like to roll a blunt, some might be enjoying both and others don’t need anything. As long as your happy and like what you do it’s all good!

Be that as it may, I like to keep it objectively and unbiased and want to show you some legendary and great parts by both stoners and sobers. What side you choose is totally up to you! And to give you a little disclaimer: The selection of clips is totally subjective and does not claim to be complete. If you think some parts and skaters are missing just post it in the comment section at the end of the article. And for now: Enjoy the clips – whether you’re stoned or sober and enjoy 420!

Stoner

vs.

Sober

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  • P.S. #1: This goes out especially to the younger guys: Take your time and don’t hurry up to try it. There’s simply no need to sit in a park rolling up a blunt wrap as a 14-year-old. It won’t make you any cooler or better in anything. And it’s the same like with lots of things: the dose makes the poison! • P.S. #2: To everyone bitching around about stoners and other stuff right now: Yes, it might be illegal (in some countries) and yes it might be bad for you. Keep calm and deal with it, it’s 2017 and not 1955…

  It’s all about skateboarding

Happy 420 – Skateboarding & Weed?! published first on https://laderaskateboards.tumblr.com/

[junker-town]

Why picking a QB in the 2017 NFL draft is an even bigger gamble than usual

Look at the numbers, and it’s clear these prospects aren’t anywhere near sure things.

The 2016 NFL draft proved two things about quarterbacks:

Quarterbacks are really hard to project.

You can’t make a guy a top prospect simply by drafting him at the top.

Over the last 10 drafts, 43 quarterbacks have been picked in the first two rounds. Of those 43, two were among the NFL’s top 10 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rating this past season: Matt Ryan and Derek Carr. The other eight were either top picks selected before 2007 (Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers) or players picked further down (Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott).

Fifteen quarterbacks were drafted in 2016. One played really well, and one played at a level slightly worse than the average QB. The others either struggled or never saw the field.

The No. 2 rookie QB on the field was also the second selected: Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz (minus-12.9 percent DVOA). Makes sense, right? But the best rookie QB was the eighth taken; Prescott (plus-31.5 percent DVOA) was selected by the Dallas Cowboys near the end of the fourth round and was probably the NFL’s third-best quarterback.

The worst semi-regular starter in the league was the No. 1 overall pick, Jared Goff.

Gaining a franchise quarterback is regarded as the fastest path to success.

But finding that guy is almost impossible, and so many teams with top draft picks rush the process.

Looking at college numbers before last year’s draft, Goff didn’t stand out from his peers in any major way.

Goff was able to get the ball downfield while taking few sacks. That's good. The main red flag: shouldn't the No. 1 pick check more boxes? He's lanky, his Combine stats and completion rate were okay, he threw a few too many picks, and he offers nothing from a rushing standpoint. Is that a guy you want to trade away your draft for?

One more red flag? From a stat standpoint, it's not immediately evident that Goff's better than the rival from down the road, Stanford’s Kevin Hogan.

Goff was a borderline first-rounder who ended up with Andrew Luck-level expectations. That was unfair to him, and it might have stunted his growth. Goff is entering only his second year, and plenty of QBs have struggled before figuring things out. It would be silly to think of him as a bust already.

At the same time, the No. 1 pick is always going to face a higher bar than Goff was going to be able to clear right away.

Over the last four drafts, teams picked only 2.3 first-round QBs per year; in the 11 drafts before that, that average was 3.1.

You could use this tiny data point to argue teams are starting to show more restraint.

Of course, there’s always a sucker. Or there’s always a desperate team that can’t bear the thought of passing on a potential franchise guy, even if it knows the odds.

Of the eight quarterbacks picked in the first round over the last three years, five have gone in the top three. After the top three, only six quarterbacks have gone in the rest of the first two rounds.

So are there any statistical standouts for 2017, or are NFL execs going to overthink their way into over-drafting QBs again?

We’ll start with the basics. Here are some rate and average stats for what I'll say are the top 22 quarterbacks in this year's class. This includes Dan Kadar's most recent top 15 (signified by the "SBN Rank" below), plus another seven.

At first glance, there are no standouts, and that could be either good or bad, depending on the patience of your general manager.

Your top two prospects probably deserve to be the top two QBs (but not top two picks).

I think it’s clear why Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky are regarded as the top QBs, and this data backs up that they should be near the top. Despite each playing against quite a few good defenses, they produced strong stats.

Watson, the preferred choice of most college fans, had a fascinating tenure.

He completed a high percentage, but few went anywhere; he averaged 12.1 yards per completion in 2015 and 11.8 in 2016.

His low sack rates fit the profile of a quick-passing efficiency guy, but he threw more picks than other prospects.

His ability to scramble for 5 yards on third-and-5 was second to none, but he lacked the explosiveness of a true dual-threat guy.

If he were to struggle in the pros, it would be because he might not have a single elite skill.

Trubisky played in the same conference and, as a passer, was equally efficient and slightly more explosive. He threw far fewer picks, too. But he took more sacks and was even less of a run threat.

Odds are, at least one will turn out to be a strong NFL quarterback.

But does Watson or Trubisky really stand out from the rest of the pack that much?

What happens if we combine some of these rate stats with Combine measurables? We get these radar charts.

Clockwise from the top, I've attempted to take you from physical attributes to efficiency to explosiveness/risk/decision-making to mobility. I love radars as easy-to-understand visuals that combine style and quality. A large surface area doesn't automatically make you better than someone with a small surface area, but if someone checks a surprising number of boxes, it makes him worth reassessing.

Physically, both barely meet the bar of your Typical NFL starting quarterback. Watson measured at 6’3, 221 pounds, while Trubisky was 6’2, 222. Trubisky’s hand size is smaller than NFL GMs would like.

The bottom line: Yeah, these are probably your top two guys and could provide decent value as long as they aren’t selected too high.

Let’s check on the latest rumors to make sure no one’s thinking about picking Trubisky at No. 1. Oh. Hey, Cleveland.

If you’ve got one of the top 10 picks, address some other need with your first pick and rest assured: there will be interesting QBs available later.

This year’s crop is full of quarterbacks with undeniable upside and terrifying downside. Maybe that’s the case every year, but among the fivesome of Nathan Peterman, DeShone Kizer, Patrick Mahomes, Chad Kelly, and Joshua Dobbs, you’ve likely got (in some unknown order) three busts, an average QB, and a star. Good luck finding the gem.

Peterman is skinny, and he isn’t much of a runner (from a frequency standpoint, anyway). He also wasn’t particularly interested in the safe throw. But over the second half of the season, there might not have been a more exciting quarterback.

After playing things close to the vest (he was 11 for 15 for 91 yards against Penn State), he let ’er rip. In Peterman's last six games, he completed 85 of 148 (57 percent) for 1,630 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions. The result: A high pick rate, a low completion rate, three losses ... and a three-game span in which Pitt scored 175 points. He threw five touchdown passes in an upset of Clemson, then completed just nine for 251 and four touchdowns in a 76-61 shootout win over Syracuse.

DeShone Kizer is another quarterback who enjoyed swinging for the fences. He didn’t avoid sacks or picks, and his interception rate wasn’t as strong as you’d like. But he’s got a gorgeous arm and big-play capability, via either pass or rush.

Fast-rising Patrick Mahomes II was the only player in the green in every passing category in the chart above. He also has a small stature and small hands. That might scare some teams away, as will the reputation associated with quarterbacks who ran versions of the air raid in college.

Chad Kelly was maybe the most fearless QB in college over the last couple of years. He averaged 13.5 yards per completion in 2015-16, and when he ran, he looked for someone to bowl over. He can throw it as far and as hard as you could possibly want, and his upside was on display in two games against mighty Alabama. In his two starts against the Tide, he completed 44 of 73 (60 percent) for 761 yards, six touchdowns, and no picks, and his Rebels scored 86 points. In that span, the rest of the SEC averaged just 13.3 points per game against Bama.

Oh, and Kelly threw seven interceptions in a three-game span in 2015, and his college passer rating was a below-average 123 during a three-game losing streak in 2016.

Few players manage to go from drastically overrated to drastically underrated during the same season, but that’s what Dobbs pulled off. He fumbles too much (which, combined with his small hands, creates a massive red flag) and makes random mistakes. But when he isn’t glitching, he’s doing incredible things.

Would you prefer someone a little steadier?

If the thought of choosing the wrong high-risk guy is giving you nightmares, you’ve got lower-ceiling, higher-floor options.

Brad Kaaya is tall, skinny, and immobile, but he completed a solid percentage and rarely threw to the wrong team.

Penn’s Alek Torgersen was maybe the best in the draft when it came to making smart passes and scrambling for necessary yardage. He’s also of smaller stature and played in the FCS Ivy League.

Are you just in the mood to say “Screw it!” and roll the dice?

Antonio Pipkin threw for 10,941 total yards and 88 touchdowns as a four-year starter at Division II Tiffin; he also rushed for 2,200 yards in that span ... and averaged 7.3 points per game for Tiffin's basketball team in 2014-15.

Somebody take this guy, please. I want to see what will happen. Entertain me. Be my guinea pig. Yeah, he threw two interceptions in the Senior Bowl. Pick him anyway.

[apsbicepstraining]

Super Bowl LI prediction: Patriots’ stout protection to tip scales against Falcons

Paolo Bandini: New Englands stout defense will build the difference in a mouth-watering matchup between the two best quarterbacks in the tournament this season

Success is supposed to be fleeting in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons are a case study in how its meant to be in a league whose formation is designed to promote parity. After starting 14 -2 and contacting their first Super Bowl in 1998, they failed to even get back into the postseason for another four years. The exact same thought happened after they travelled 13 -3 and reached the NFC title recreation in 2012.

And now, all of a sudden, they are back in the large-hearted dance.

The New England Patriots, of course, do circumstances differently. This will be their seventh Super Bowl appearing since hiring Bill Belichick as leader tutor in 2000. No other squad has played in more than three over the same span.

Does that mean they will win on Sunday? Not inevitably: we have find Belichick lose on the current stage before. Admittedly, merely against the New York Giants, but six recreations maybe isnt a large enough sample size to deduce that no other adversary could disturb them.

So, lets try and violate this one down through the matchups instead. But first, a speedy update on our Pick The Playoffs contest, where three readers have called all 10 competitions accurately so far.

Can mmmbop8 6 , nbcnfl or ShadowWarrior make it a clean sweep? Or will they fall at the final impediment? Ill post the full bears in specific comments slouse shortly, but if youre within a moment of the result, do include a score prophecy for Sundays game – this will be used as a tie-breaker, if required, to decide our winner.

For now, I can announce that castigers is our overall champ for the combined regular season and postseason tournaments, having built a two-point contribute over the rest of the field with only the one competition left to play. Do assemble me in commending them on an impressive 72 remedy selects out of a possible 112 thus far( and gives not forget that two of those activities ended in ties ).

Falcons offense v Patriots defense

Atlanta extended the NFL in scoring during the course of its regular season, with Ryan averaging a nonsensical 9.3 grounds per overtaking attempt and generally performing at a tier above anything he had produced in his( already solid) career. Meanwhile , no team gave up fewer moments than the Patriots.

Its worth noting that the Falcons have not just been running up the scores against bad teams. According to Football Outsiderss advanced DVOA metrics, they faced the second-most efficient group of protections of any crew in the NFL this season. Atlanta put 38 extents on Arizona, 29 on Kansas City, 23 on Denver and then 36 on Seattle last month in the playoffs.

The Patriots have just faced a unit all season with anything close to this offensive potential. They did curtail the Steelers to a combined 33 places in two fits, but Pittsburgh were missing Ben Roethlisberger in week seven, and lost LeVeon Bell early in the AFC championship game.

What does the Falcons so dangerous is the reach of weapons at Ryans disposal. Julio Jones is an extraordinary flair quite possibly best available wide-ranging receiver in the league but if it was just a question of obstructing him in check then I would have no reluctance backing the Patriots to do so, especially after viewing how they contained Antonio Brown utilizing constant double-teams.

Repeating that strategy against Atlanta, nonetheless, would appear riskier. The Falcons do not have a standout No2 option in the receiving activity, but what the hell is do have is a whole casting of reliable pass catchers and playmakers, from Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel at receiver to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman coming out of the backfield. Assign two advocates to Jones, and will you still have enough left over?

Julio Jones, perhaps the NFLs better wide-cut receiver, will give New Englands defense a potent objection. Image: USA Today Sports/ Reuters/ USA Today Sports

The obvious alternative would be to let Malcolm Butler track Jones everywhere. He is one of few actors in the NFL who might be capable of deeming his own in such a duel. But we have not often investigated Belichick making this rigid employment of his No1 corner.

More likely, I suppose, is that the Patriots will spate the field with defensive backs, leaving as few as six souls in the box and challenging Atlanta to stay patient and extend the dance. The Falcons are quite capable of doing so, but would they stay patient enough in that scenario?

And there is at least a possibility that such an approach could play right into Atlantas handwritings. They have applied the play-action more often,( on 27.6% of Ryans passing plays, according to ProFootballFocus) and more efficiently, than any other squad in the conference. Build the lope early on with a couple of tallying drives, and suddenly it gets that little bit harder for champions to fight the bogu.

Otherwise, the one big concern I have for Atlanta on this back of the pellet revolves around the fitness of core Alex Mack, who disabled his ankle during the NFC championship game. The single most important participate on an offensive front that has helped tremendously from being able to start the same five players in every tournament, he has practiced the coming week and expected to begin on Sunday, but will he be at 100%?

That ankle is sure to be tested by an encounter with New Englands 350 lb defensive undertake, Alan Branch. If it fails, Atlanta might be in big trouble.

Patriots offense v Falcons defense

As brilliant as Ryan has been this season and I have already obliged my example for why I think he should prevail the MVP there is at least an arguing to be made that Brady, after returning from his exclusion, was even better. How do you combat a guy who completes more than 67% of his legislates, and who has a moronic 132.8 quarterback rating on third down?

The obvious rebuttal is to hit him before he gets the chance to move. Obvious, but incredibly difficult to achieve. Brady took a merely 19 sackings in 14 starts( playoffs included) this season and has excelled against the blitz for years.

Almost every unit that has toppled New England in a playoff game in the last decade has been able to generate consistent pres without sending extra humankinds after him. In possibility, Atlanta have the personnel to do the same. Vic Beasley contributed the league with 15.5 sackings in the regular season, whilst Dwight Freeney remains a highly effective situational periphery rusher as well.

In practice, though, I have some uncertainties. Beasley is yet to record a sacking in the playoffs, and you could make a event that his regular season figures in that district overstate his effectiveness. His 56 total quarterback pressures simply graded 18 th in the NFL, and he is likely to spend a significant part of Sundays game lining up opposite New Englands right attack, Marcus Cannon a man who has not allowed a sack since week one.

Whether Atlantas onslaught can fluster Tom Brady will prove crucial to the Falcons risks. Photograph: Charlie Riedel/ AP

Brady should be content to get the ball out speedily, more. The Falcons missed 136 tackles this season, according to ProFootballFocus, and allowed opposing ball-carriers to gain an average of 2.89 gardens after initial contact. Those were, respectively, the second-worst and worst such numbers of any squad in the tournament.

A reasonable conclusion for Belichick and his coaching faculty would be that it makes more sense were concentrated in plays that get the ball into receivers sides close to the line of scrimmage rather than taking kills downfield. None executing the simple-minded slant-flats elapsing theories better than Brady, who, like Ryan, has a abundance of various types of targets to is targeted at.

Chris Hogan has been the idol of New Englands playoff display so far, and his sizing cam be an asset against a protection that prizes speed over dominance. Belichick might be allured to soften Atlanta up early, use heavy organisations with a heavy quantity of LeGarrette Blount and Martellus Bennett. But if not then, hey, Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and James White all know how to do detriment, extremely.

Special teams

The Falcons might have a slight edge up the third phase, though I dont think its a huge one. Kicker Matt Bryant has put together best available season of his profession at 41 years old, the coverage forces have been solid and Eric Weems ranked sixth in the conference with an 11.4 yard punt income average. The Falcons own punter, Matt Bosher, should be feeling fresh-legged, afforded hes exclusively had to boot the pellet 44 times all season.

New Englands Ryan Allen is solid, as are the coverage gangs. There have been a few proceed mishaps during the course of the season, but Dion Lewis led a commencement return back 98 yards for a rating against the Houston Texans in the divisional round. The only swoon crimson observe be connected to kicker Stephen Gostkowski whose often high standards have passed rather, with three extra stages and four field goals missed over the course of the season.

Pick

What prepares this such a fascinating matchup is the fact that, on the surface, you can find so much better about these teams that look similar. Brady and Ryan have been the two good quarterbacks in the tournament in 2016 -1 7, both have benefited from strong pass protection and each has a enormous arsenal of varied weapons at their disposal. I expect this to be a high-scoring play.

In the end, though, I do fantasize the Patriots will have an edge on defense. I dont repute either unit is going to have a great deal of rejoice rushing the passer unless Mack truly does fights for Atlanta but I do expect Belichick to do a better occupation of scheming to slow Ryan down, take away the deep ball and test the Falcons willingness to play patiently and chip away.

Perhaps they will rise to that challenge. But Im more inclined to trust the team Ive looked do it before.

Prediction: Patriots 34 -2 8 Falcons

The post Super Bowl LI prediction: Patriots’ stout protection to tip scales against Falcons appeared first on apsbicepstraining.com.

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[madpicks]

New Post has been published on https://www.madpicks.com/sports/ncaab/best-worst-2017-ncaa-tournament/

The best and worst of the 2017 NCAA tournament

From missed dunks to super-soaker celebrations, let’s re-live all the best and worst moments from the 2017 NCAA tournament.

In the days immediately following the end of any NCAA tournament, it’s always a little difficult to take a step back and try to digest everything that just went down. The excitement (or the disappointment) is always still a little too fresh.

Time will ultimately determine how the 2017 Big Dance is viewed in terms of its place in college hoops history. Will it be remembered for Gonzaga’s run to the title game? For South Carolina’s trek to the Final Four? For the questionable officiating late in several close games? It’s hard to say with any degree of certainty at the moment.

What we can do is take a few steps backward and look at all the best and worst that the 2017 installment of March Madness gave to us.

BEST GAME

1. (4) Florida 84, (8) Wisconsin 83 (OT) (Sweet 16)

The second night of Sweet 16 play was supposed to belong to Kentucky-UCLA, but that all changed in the 45 minutes or so following the Wildcats’ 11-point victory over the Bruins. The sports world then flipped over to TBS to watch Florida and Wisconsin play the best game of not just Friday, but of the entire tournament.

Despite trailing by 11 in the first half, Florida led by two at halftime and seemed to be in total control of the game for nearly the entirety of the second half. That changed in the final minute when Wisconsin once again proved to be nearly impossible to get rid of in March. A few clutch shots by the Badgers, a missed layup from Kasey Hill, and a couple of ill-advised Florida turnovers all led to Bucky having one last shot to hit a three and extend the game. That’s when Zak Showalter did this:

Overtime was a total reversal of the end of regulation. Wisconsin now seemed to be the team in control, but missed free throws and some ill-advised fouls allowed Florida to make it a one-possession game in the final minute. With the Badgers clinging to a two-point lead, Khalil Iverson seemed to have broken free for an uncontested layup that would double his team’s lead. Canyon Barry was having none of that:

Both teams would add two points to their totals, leaving Florida down two with only 4.5 seconds to go. Chris Chiozza then became a March immortal:

The first weekend of the tournament came and went without a single memorable last second shot or buzzer-beater. Florida and Wisconsin gave us two within minutes of one another. Thanks for the entertainment, fellas.

Also Considered:

(1) North Carolina 75, (2) Kentucky 73 (Elite Eight)

(11) Xavier 73, (2) Arizona 71 (Sweet 16)

BIGGEST UPSET

(7) South Carolina 88, (2) Duke 81 (Second Round)

It seems a little less shocking now that we know South Carolina would go on to crash the Final Four and push Gonzaga to the brink in the first national semifinal. At the time, though, neither Duke nor the Gamecocks had given us any inclination to believe that this was result was even remotely possible.

Duke, the near unanimous preseason No. 1 team, appeared to have finally hit its stride. The Blue Devils had just become the first team in ACC history to capture the league’s postseason tournament by winning four games in four days, and had experienced little pushback in their first-round triumph over Troy.

South Carolina, meanwhile, had been widely panned as one of the most over-seeded teams in the tournament on Selection Sunday. The Gamecocks had lost five of their last seven games heading into the Big Dance, and had never shown any signs of having an offense capable of spearheading a deep run in March.

Then this happened. For 40 minutes, South Carolina was just flat-out better than Duke. Sindarius Thornwell was the best player on the court, and the Blue Devils never adjusted to slow him or backcourt mate PJ Dozier down.

With no massive upsets from double-digit seeds this year, this still stands up as the most surprising result of the tournament.

Also Considered:

(11) Xavier 73, (2) Arizona 71 (Sweet 16)

(8) Wisconsin 65, (1) Villanova 62 (Second Round)

BEST TREND

Postgame water celebrations

Dousing one another with water in the locker room after a big win isn’t exactly a revolutionary trend, but it did seem to play a larger role in this year’s tournament than in any other. Creativity bonus points to Michigan’s John Beilein for having a prop ready for his big moment.

Also Considered:

Celebrity fans (Bill Murray, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Aaron Rodgers)

Michigan’s magical March

WORST TREND

Missed dunks

Seriously, just about every day of the tournament gave us four or five embarrassing butcherings of uncontested dunk attempts.

You can see almost all of them here.

Also considered:

The lack of major opening weekend upsets

Awful officiating

BEST PLAYER

Sindarius Thornwell, South Carolina

Even though he wasn’t great in the Final Four and played one fewer game than the guys on Gonzaga and North Carolina, Thornwell still deserves the nod here. His 15-point effort in his team’s loss to the Zags was the only time in the tournament he scored fewer than 24. No player was consistently better or more instrumental to his team’s success than Thornwell this March.

Also Considered:

Tyler Dorsey, Oregon

Justin Jackson, North Carolina

BEST DUNK

Semi Ojeleye, SMU

We talked about all the missed dunks earlier, but no successful cram was more vicious than this Semi Ojeleye put-back in SMU’s first-round loss to USC.

OH. MY. GOODNESS. #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/nxE6bOedmm

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) March 17, 2017

Also Considered:

Calvin Hermanson, Saint Mary’s

Deng Adel, Louisville

BEST PICTURE

The fact that this is an image of a buzzer-beating three-pointer that went in and won a game will never cease to amaze me when I look at it.

BEST QUOTE

“First of all, I don’t know that I have a monkey on my back. I don’t wake up with one or walk around with one. I don’t think these guys think I have one, I don’t think my wife thinks I have one, or anybody in my family. Close friends. Fishing buddies never talk about it. So those are the only people that really matter to me. It would be phenomenal to get these guys, this team that I love deeply, the experience to go to a Final Four. It would be phenomenal to give that satisfaction to all the players I’ve been lucky enough to coach, and to give it to a university that has treated me so incredibly well. And to Spokane, which has been such an unbelievable community for us to have our program. But it’s not about me and my monkeys and my dogs and my cats. It’s about them.”

— Gonzaga coach Mark Few when asked about “getting the monkey off his back” and making a Final Four.

[sumikoirala]

Fact Check: The Veracity of a Week of Claims

WASHINGTON — 

In the Washington week that wasn’t, President Donald Trump’s new administration whirred like a “fine-tuned machine,” piling on big-league accomplishments at a pace never before seen.

Immigration agents newly empowered by Trump’s call to secure borders sent hordes of bad foreigners back home, validating a president who won the most lopsided Electoral College victory since Ronald Reagan.

That’s what the audacity of hype looks like.

In the Washington week that actually was, Trump fired his national security adviser for misleading the vice president, was rebuffed by his next choice, saw a Cabinet nominee’s prospects flame out, and stirred anxiety among some fellow Republicans over the tumult holding up Trump’s agenda. Immigration officials announced a sizable but routine roundup of people living in the country illegally, which resulted in fewer arrests than raids mounted under President Barack Obama almost two years earlier.

Trump was called out on his latest of many boasts about the Electoral College, which handed him one of the narrowest victories since Reagan — sixth out of eight — and not one of the biggest.

A look at some of his statements in the past week:

President Donald Trump gives a thumbs up from the top of the steps of Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base in Md., Feb. 17, 2017.

‘A Fine-Tuned Machine’

TRUMP: “I see stories of chaos. Chaos. Yet it is the exact opposite. This administration is running like a fine-tuned machine, despite the fact that I can’t get my Cabinet approved.”

“This last month has represented an unprecedented degree of action on behalf of the great citizens of our country. Again, I say it. There has never been a presidency that’s done so much in such a short period of time.”

THE FACTS: Trump’s first month has been consumed by a series of missteps and firestorms and produced less legislation of significance than Obama enacted during his first month.

Republican-led congressional committees will investigate the Trump team’s relations with Russians before he took office and the flood of leaks that altogether forced out his national security adviser in record time. His pick for labor secretary withdrew because he didn’t have enough Republican support.

By many measures, the administration is in near paralysis in its earliest days, leaving allies unsettled and many in Congress anxious about what Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., called the “constant disruption.” To many Republicans — never mind Democrats — the machine seems in danger of its wheels coming off.

In his first month, Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus package into law, as well as a law expanding health care for children and the Lilly Ledbetter bill on equal pay for women. Trump has vigorously produced executive orders, which don’t require congressional approval and typically have narrow effect. The one with far-reaching consequences — banning entry by refugees and by visitors from seven countries — has been blocked by courts.

Trump’s biggest initiatives, such as tax cuts and a replacement for Obama’s health care law, have not emerged. On Thursday he signed into law a rollback of Obama-era regulations on mining near streams. Congress has sent him little else.

Watch: Trump: I Inherited a Mess

‘I inherited a mess’

TRUMP: “To be honest I inherited a mess. It’s a mess. At home and abroad, a mess.”

THE FACTS: A mess is in the eye of the beholder. But by almost every economic measure, Obama inherited a far worse situation when he became president in 2009 than he left for Trump. Obama had to deal with the worst downturn since the Depression.

Unemployment was spiking, the stock market crashing, the auto industry failing and millions of Americans risked losing their homes to foreclosure when Obama took the oath of office. None of those statistics is as dire for Trump.

Unemployment is 4.8 percent, compared with a peak of 10 percent during Obama’s first year as president. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was cratering until March 2009, only to rebound roughly 200 percent over the rest of Obama’s term, and those gains have continued under Trump on the promise of tax and regulatory cuts.

When Trump assumed office last month, a greater percentage of the country had health insurance, incomes were rising and the country was adding jobs.

The Trump administration has noted that a smaller proportion of the population is working or looking for jobs. But even this measure began to turn around toward the end of the Obama era.

Yet it’s true that jobs at factories and coal mines have been disappearing for more than three decades, while many people with only a high school diploma have seen their incomes fall after adjusting for inflation. The home ownership rate has slipped even as the economy has improved, leaving many pockets of the country feeling left out of a recovery that technically began more than seven years ago.

A crater made by an airstrike against Islamic State militants is Mosul, Iraq, Feb. 3, 2017.

Islamic State

TRUMP: “ISIS has spread like cancer, another mess I inherited.”

THE FACTS: The Islamic State group began to lose ground before Trump took office, not just in Iraq and Syria but also in Libya. The gradual military progress achieved in Iraq during Obama’s final two years has pushed IS to the point of collapse in Mosul, its main Iraqi stronghold.

It remains a potent danger beyond its shrunken territory, encouraging adherents to stage acts of terrorism. The analogy with cancer is an echo of Obama’s last defense secretary, Ash Carter, who repeatedly cast Obama’s counter-IS campaign as an effort to reverse the extremists’ “metastasis” beyond the “parent tumor” in Iraq and Syria.

Electoral College

TRUMP, bragging again about his Electoral College vote total: “We got 306 because people came out and voted like they’ve never seen before, so that’s the way it goes. I guess it was the biggest Electoral College win since Ronald Reagan.”

THE FACTS: Not even close. In the seven previous elections, the winner of five of those contests won a larger Electoral College majority than Trump. They were George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996; and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

When a reporter pointed out that Trump was overstating his winning margin, the president said: “Well, I don’t know, I was given that information.” He then called it “a very substantial victory.”

Trump actually ended up with 304 electoral votes because of the defection of two electors in December, but he had won enough states in November to get to 306.

Keystone Pipeline

TRUMP: “We want products made in America, made by American hands. You probably saw the Keystone pipeline I approved recently.”

THE FACTS: He hasn’t approved the Keystone XL pipeline.

Trump has signed an order asking the TransCanada pipeline company to “resubmit its application” for a permit to build the project, which it has done.

There’s still a regulatory process to go through and negotiations to be done. Trump has said he’d renegotiate some of the terms and is insisting that the pipeline be built with U.S. steel. TransCanada has said it would need time to review how any buy-American plan from Washington will impact the company.

Late in his presidency, Barack Obama rejected Keystone XL on environmental grounds.

Trump’s order directs the State Department and other agencies to make a decision within 60 days of the application.

This photo released by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement shows foreign nationals being arrested during a targeted enforcement operation aimed at immigration fugitives, re-entrants and at-large criminal aliens in Los Angeles, Feb. 7, 2017.

Immigrants and deportation

TRUMP: “We’re actually taking people that are criminals, very, very, hardened criminals in some cases … with a tremendous track record of abuse and problems, and we’re getting them out and that’s what I said I would do. … And I said at the beginning, we are going to get the bad ones, the really bad ones, we’re getting them out and that’s exactly what we’re doing.”

THE FACTS: Officials said an operation that resulted in the arrest of more than 680 immigrants in various cities was a routine enforcement action like those undertaken during the presidency of Obama, who deported an unprecedented number of people as president.

More specifically, David Marin, Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s field office director for enforcement and removal operations in greater Los Angeles, said the agency carries out such large-scale operations two or three times a year in his region. The California operation was in the planning stages “before the administration came out with their current executive orders,” he said. More than 100 of the arrests were in the Los Angeles area.

The notion that raids have been stepped up under Trump has been advanced both by the White House, to show that Trump is keeping a promise, and by advocates of those who have been targeted, to illustrate what they call the new president’s heavy-handed tactics. But statistical evidence has not come in to show that enforcement has surged under the new Trump administration or that actual deportations are up. A similar series of raids under Obama in March 2015 resulted in the arrest of more than 2,000 criminals, the government said at the time.

Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly said: “ICE conducts these kind of targeted enforcement operations regularly and has for many years. The focus of these enforcement operations is consistent with the routine, targeted arrests carried out by ICE’s Fugitive Operations teams on a daily basis.”

It’s possible, however, that the latest raids went beyond Obama’s actions in arresting people without serious criminal records. Kelly said 75 percent of those arrested had been convicted of crimes. That still leaves many who were taken into detention without such records.

Travel Ban

TRUMP, saying the appeals court that blocked his selective travel ban “has been overturned at a record number.”

THE FACTS: Other appeals courts have seen their decisions overturned at a higher rate than the San Francisco-based 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that froze his action on immigration.

In the most recent full term, the Supreme Court reversed 8 of the 11 cases from the 9th Circuit. But the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit went 0 for 3; that is, the Supreme Court reversed all three cases it heard from that circuit. Over the past five years, five federal appeals courts were reversed at a higher rate than the 9th Circuit.

The 9th Circuit is by far the largest of the 13 federal courts of appeals. In raw numbers, more cases are heard and reversed from the 9th Circuit year in and year out. But as a percentage of cases the Supreme Court hears, the liberal-leaning circuit fares somewhat better, according to statistical compilations by Scotusblog.

Most cases decided by appeals courts aren’t appealed to the Supreme Court, and the high court only accepts for review a small percentage of those that are.

But the very act of the Supreme Court’s agreeing to hear a case means the odds are it will be overturned; the court reverses about two-thirds of the cases it hears.

Autism

TRUMP on childhood autism: “Tremendous increases … really a horrible thing to watch the tremendous amount of increase.”

THE FACTS: About 1 in 68 school-age children has autism or related disorders, a rate that has stayed about the same for two years, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported in March.

That’s far more than in 2000, when the CDC estimated that about 1 in 150 children had autism. But the increase is explained in large part by more awareness of the developmental disorder and changes in practice that broadened the definition for an autism diagnosis.

Labeling also is an issue, as parents became more likely to seek out the increasing services for autism and related disorders that are available in schools and other settings. Still, the CDC says that a true increase in the number of people with autism cannot be ruled out.

An accurate estimate of the prevalence of autism is important because those who attribute autism to vaccination seize upon any rising numbers as an argument against vaccination. That has proved worrisome to public health officials because it could divert money away from things that should be a higher priority.

Trump in the past has subscribed to theories unsupported by scientific evidence linking vaccines to autism.

[guillembalague-blog]

Valencia. Can anybody stop them getting relegated?

It is not without irony that Valencia gets its name from the Roman word 'Valentia' meaning valour or courage and that during the Muslim rule in Spain the city was nicknamed Medina bu-Tarab ("City of Joy"). These days the words 'joy' and 'valour' do not spring immediately to mind when talking about Spain's third city's once great football club that currently finds itself spiralling inexorably closer to the relegation trap door for the first time in more than 30 years. These truly are the bad times. In the words of Marlon Brando's Godfather, "How did things ever get so far." There have been many other bad times and in truth even the good times have frequently been overshadowed by political intrigue and in-fighting. Rafa Benitez brought the La Liga title to the Mestalla for the first time in more than 30 years, not once but twice in 2002 and 2004 but still left under a cloud saying of those at the club, "If I asked them for a sofa, they would get me a new lamp." If Spain is a family - albeit a frequently dysfuncional one - then Valencia has always been the the rather lippy, aggressive, younger brother of its two older siblings Madrid and Barcelona. Always getting into scrapes, challenging authority, railing against injustices, real or imaginary. Success for Valencia FC has always been joined at the hip with the hopes and aspirations of Valencia the city and the whole of the Comunidad Valenciana. Lack of success has inevitably been blamed on conspiracies masterminded by the movers and shakers of La Liga be they officials, administrators or perhaps, most crucially, referees perceived to be biased in favour of the two bigger, older brothers. The truth is that "things got so far" because Singapore billionaire, Peter Lim - to borrow another Brando sound bite - made Valencia an offer they thought couldn't refuse. Hindsight shows us here that this is precisely what Valencia should have done and that "offers you can't refuse" are, almost invariably, precisely those you should immediately reject. Where to begin? Mario Kempes is a legend at Valencia and not exactly backwards in coming forward when asked to comment on the current debacle, in fact scathing doesn't even begin to describe it. "I wouldn't wish what's going on at Valencia at the moment on my worst enemy, " he said recently "His plan (Peter Lim's) was to bring young players in , to develop them, then sell them on, but his plan backfired on him." "He signed players that didn't know where they coming to, youngsters that had never found themselves in such a crisis situation and that got worse simply because they didn't realise how heavy the Valencia shirt can weigh on you." . "And those that were up to the task like Alcácer and Andre Gomes they sold, practically making orphans of those that were left behind." "And then to try to avoid the fans turning on the board and directors they obliged Paco Alcácer to announce that he wanted to leave the club." Had Lim's plans been based on a similar idea to that which saw the likes of Ayala and Rufete sign players like Otamendi and Mustafi for reasonable money and then sell them for fortunes it might have been understandable. Former President Jaime Orti explained: "The crisis was created when Amadeo Salvo handed the sporting side of the club to Layhoon Chan, the President who represents the interest of the owner Peter Lim, who had decided to appoint the coach Nuno." Unfortunately, he went on, Nuno felt marginalised by the power of Ayala and Rufete and felt he should play a more active part in deciding the transfer policy. A locking of horns was inevitable and when Salvo announced that if Rufete and Ayala went, then so would he, Nuno is alleged to have said, "If they go, so what, Peter has confidence in me to do the job." The die was cast. Out went Rufete, Ayala and Salvo, in came Jorge Mendes, a close friend of Lim, and off they went shopping in search of players; young and not so young - Enzo was just one month shy of his 29th birthday - but always very expensive talent like Rodrigo (€30m), the afore mentioned Enzo (€25m) and Santi Mina (€10m), none of who on current form would even begin to recoup that sort of money. But that doesn't even begin to tell the whole story. Lim's reign in Spain has seen no fewer than six different managers attempt to bring some kind of order to the chaos including present incumbent Salvador Gonzalez 'Voro' currently on his fourth spell as caretaker manager at the club, but, at the club say, at the end of the season. Voro is the guy that gets tickets for concerts for players, gets them deals for cars, sorts them out when they have come out the line, their fixer... and now, do you really think they will respect him as their head coach? The irony was not lost on Mario Kempes who tweeted, "And now gentlemen after the inevitable departure of Prandelli we will once again see the appearance of the good guy Voro to put out the fire lit by Lim and Mendez." Prandelli must have known his time was up when in a scene I imagine to be similar to that of a businessman called to the state of the art modern headquarters of a Bond villain he was summoned to Singapore to 'discuss matters' with Mr Lim where he was doubtlessly told that all the family silver that had been sold was not about to be replaced. He probably didn't say it, but at that moment the thought must have gone through his head that at least Benitez got himself a lamp. In truth, however, Prandelli already sealed his own fate by them following a memorable press conference after a training session in the second week of December. "I'm going to speak slowly, so I hope you can understand me," he said. He needn't have worried. They understood him alright and as so often happens in situations like this if you're going to go for the knock out blow, you better make sure that the recipient of your wrath doesn't get up. In a tirade lasting less than two minutes he announced that any player in the dressing room not perpared to give everything needed in terms of attitude, professionalism and seriousness would be 'fuori' (Italian), 'fuera' (Spanish) 'out' (English). The press loved it. "Ave Cesare, we're with you" run the headlines in Superdeporte the following day. As he left the ground he apparently told waiting members of the media that he felt sure they would now return to winning ways. In fact, all that theatre was his way to force his departure. He did not want to stay there anymore. In any case he probably should have selected the media in his next line up because his call to arms did not have a similar rallying effect on the very people it was supposed to have had - the players. Valencia lost their next game 3-2 at Real Sociedad, a scoreline that flattered them thanks to an unexpected penalty and a last minute goal that gave it the look, if not the feel, of respectability. Prandelli made all the right noises about the showing of fighting spirit etc but he had lost the dressing room and he knew it. He resigned just before the end of the year and back in came Valencia's own Red Adair in the shape of Voro. Except of course this time he has not hit the floor running starting off his fourth spell at the club with a humiliating 1-4 defeat to Celta Vigo in the Copa del Rey before scraping a draw and conceding three goals in the process to an Osasuna side rapidly becoming the whipping boys of this year's La Liga campaign. The only crumb of consolation was probably the fact that Real Madrid's participation in the Club World Cup match meant Los Blancos visit to the Mestalla was postponed and Valencia were very likely spared the potential humiliation that would have probably come with the visit of Zidane's unbeaten side. The real tragedy of course is that as bad as the situation is, the general consensus is that it has it in its locker to get much, much worse. Valencia is a great, proud - and rightly so - city and it deserves better. It deserves a top flight La Liga side and the chances are unless something is done, and done quickly, then a cursory look at the league tables will tell you that the City's representation next season could well come in the shape of Levante who currently sit seven points clear at the top the Segunda A and who are themselves no strangers to crisis and financial hardships. Now that really is an irony.

[junker-town]

Why picking a QB in 2017’s NFL draft is an even bigger gamble than usual

Look at the numbers, and it’s clear these prospects aren’t anywhere near sure things.

The 2016 NFL Draft proved two things about quarterbacks:

Quarterbacks are really hard to project.

You can’t make a guy a top prospect simply by drafting him at the top.

Over the last 10 drafts, 43 quarterbacks have been picked in the first two rounds. Of those 43, two were among the NFL’s top 10 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rating this past season: Matt Ryan and Derek Carr. The other eight were either top picks selected before 2007 (Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers) or players picked further down (Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott).

Fifteen quarterbacks were drafted in 2016. One played really well, and one played at a level slightly worse than the average QB. The others either struggled or never saw the field.

The No. 2 rookie QB on the field was also the second selected: Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz (minus-12.9 percent DVOA). Makes sense, right? But the best rookie QB was the eighth taken; Prescott (plus-31.5 percent DVOA) was selected by the Dallas Cowboys near the end of the fourth round and was probably the NFL’s third-best quarterback.

The worst semi-regular starter in the league was the No. 1 overall pick, Jared Goff.

Gaining a franchise quarterback is regarded as the fastest path to success.

But finding that guy is almost impossible, and so many teams with top draft picks rush the process.

Looking at college rate stats before last year’s draft, Goff didn’t stand out from his peers in any major way.

Goff was able to get the ball downfield while taking few sacks. That's good. The main red flag: shouldn't the No. 1 pick check more boxes? He's lanky, his Combine stats and completion rate were okay, he threw a few too many picks, and he offers nothing from a rushing standpoint. Is that a guy you want to trade away your draft for?

One more red flag? From a stat standpoint, it's not immediately evident that Goff's better than the rival from down the road, Stanford’s Kevin Hogan.

Goff was a borderline first-rounder who ended up with Andrew Luck-level expectations. That was unfair to him, and it might have stunted his growth. Goff is entering only his second year, and plenty of QBs have struggled before figuring things out. It would be silly to think of him as a bust already.

At the same time, the No. 1 pick is always going to face a higher bar than Goff was going to be able to clear right away.

Over the last four drafts, teams picked only 2.3 first-round QBs per year; in the 11 drafts before that, that average was 3.1.

You could use this tiny data point to argue teams are starting to show more restraint.

Of course, there’s always a sucker. Or there’s always a desperate team that can’t bear the thought of passing on a potential franchise guy, even if it knows the odds.

Of the eight quarterbacks picked in the first round over the last three years, five have gone in the top three. After the top three, only six quarterbacks have gone in the rest of the first two rounds.

So are there any statistical standouts for 2017, or are NFL execs going to overthink their way into over-drafting QBs again?

We’ll start with the basics. Here are some rate and average stats for what I'll say are the top 22 quarterbacks in this year's class. This includes Dan Kadar's most recent top 15 (signified by the "SBN Rank" below), plus another seven.

At first glance, there are no standouts, and that could be either good or bad, depending on the patience of your general manager.

Your top two prospects probably deserve to be the top two QBs (but not top two picks).

I think it’s clear why Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky are regarded as the top QBs, and this data backs up that they should be near the top. Despite each playing against quite a few good defenses, they produced strong stats.

Watson, the preferred choice of most college fans, had a fascinating tenure.

He completed a high percentage, but few went anywhere; he averaged 12.1 yards per completion in 2015 and 11.8 in 2016.

His low sack rates fit the profile of a quick-passing efficiency guy, but he threw more picks than other prospects.

His ability to scramble for five yards on third-and-5 was second to none, but he lacked the explosiveness of a true dual-threat guy.

If he were to struggle in the pros, it would be because he might not have a single elite skill.

Trubisky played in the same conference and, as a passer, was equally efficient and slightly more explosive. He threw far fewer picks, too. But he took more sacks and was even less of a run threat.

Odds are, at least one will turn out to be a strong NFL quarterback.

But does Watson or Trubisky really stand out from the rest of the pack that much?

What happens if we combine some of these rate stats with Combine measurables? We get these radar charts.

Clockwise from the top, I've attempted to take you from physical attributes to efficiency to explosiveness/risk/decision-making to mobility. I love radars as easy-to-understand visuals that combine style and quality. A large surface area doesn't automatically make you better than someone with a small surface area, but if someone checks a surprising number of boxes, it makes him worth reassessing.

Physically, both barely meet the bar of your Typical NFL Starting Quarterback. Watson measured at 6’3, 221 pounds, while Trubisky was 6’2, 222. Trubisky’s hand size is smaller than NFL GMs would like.

The bottom line: yeah, these are probably your top two guys and could provide decent value as long as they aren’t selected too high.

Let’s check on the latest projections to make sure no one’s thinking about picking Trubisky in the top five. Oh. Hey, Cleveland.

If you’ve got one of the top 10 picks, address some other need with your first pick and rest assured: there will be interesting QBs available later.

This year’s crop is full of quarterbacks with undeniable upside and terrifying downside. Maybe that’s the case every year, but among the fivesome of Nathan Peterman, DeShone Kizer, Pat Mahomes, Chad Kelly, and Joshua Dobbs, you’ve likely got (in some unknown order) three busts, an average QB, and a star. Good luck finding the gem.

Peterman is skinny, and he isn’t much of a runner (from a frequency standpoint, anyway). He also wasn’t particularly interested in the safe throw. But over the second half of the season, there might not have been a more exciting quarterback.

After playing things close to the vest (he was 11-for-15 for 91 yards against Penn State), he let 'er rip. In Peterman's last six games, he completed 85 of 148 (57 percent) for 1,630 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions. The result: a high pick rate, a low completion rate, three losses ... and a three-game span in which Pitt scored 175 points. He threw five touchdown passes in an upset of Clemson, then completed just nine for 251 and four touchdowns in a 76-61 shootout win over Syracuse.

DeShone Kizer is another quarterback who enjoyed swinging for the fences. He didn’t avoid sacks or picks, and his interception rate wasn’t as strong as you’d like. But he’s got a gorgeous arm and big-play capability, via either pass or rush.

Fast-rising Patrick Mahomes II was the only player in the green in every passing category in the chart above. He also has a small stature and small hands. That might scare some teams away, as will the reputation associated with quarterbacks who ran versions of the air raid in college.

Chad Kelly was maybe the most fearless QB in college over the last couple of years. He averaged 13.5 yards per completion in 2015-16, and when he ran, he looked for someone to bowl over. He can throw it as far and as hard as you could possibly want, and his upside was on display in two games against mighty Alabama. In his two starts against the Tide, he completed 44 of 73 (60 percent) for 761 yards, six touchdowns, and no picks, and his Rebels scored 86 points. In that span, the rest of the SEC averaged just 13.3 points per game against Bama.

Oh, and Kelly threw seven interceptions in a three-game span in 2015, and his college passer rating was a below-average 123 during a three-game losing streak in 2016.

Few players manage to go from drastically overrated to drastically underrated during the same season, but that’s what Dobbs pulled off. He fumbles too much (which, combined with his small hands, creates a massive red flag) and makes random mistakes. But when he isn’t glitching, he’s doing incredible things.

Would you prefer someone a little steadier?

If the thought of choosing the wrong high-risk guy is giving you nightmares, you’ve got lower-ceiling, higher-floor options.

Brad Kaaya is tall, skinny, and immobile, but he completed a solid percentage and rarely threw to the wrong team.

Penn’s Alek Torgersen was maybe the best in the draft when it came to making smart passes and scrambling for necessary yardage. He’s also of smaller stature and played in the FCS Ivy League.

Are you just in the mood to say “Screw it!” and roll the dice?

Antonio Pipkin threw for 10,941 total yards and 88 touchdowns as a four-year starter at Division II Tiffin; he also rushed for 2,200 yards in that span ... and averaged 7.3 points per game for Tiffin's basketball team in 2014-15.

Somebody take this guy, please. I want to see what will happen. Entertain me. Be my guinea pig. Yeah, he threw two interceptions in the Senior Bowl. Pick him anyway.

[apsbicepstraining]

Super Bowl LI prediction: Patriots’ stout protection to tip scales against Falcons

Paolo Bandini: New Englands stout defense will build the difference in a mouth-watering matchup between the two best quarterbacks in the tournament this season

Success is supposed to be fleeting in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons are a case study in how its meant to be in a league whose formation is designed to promote parity. After starting 14 -2 and contacting their first Super Bowl in 1998, they failed to even get back into the postseason for another four years. The exact same thought happened after they travelled 13 -3 and reached the NFC title recreation in 2012.

And now, all of a sudden, they are back in the large-hearted dance.

The New England Patriots, of course, do circumstances differently. This will be their seventh Super Bowl appearing since hiring Bill Belichick as leader tutor in 2000. No other squad has played in more than three over the same span.

Does that mean they will win on Sunday? Not inevitably: we have find Belichick lose on the current stage before. Admittedly, merely against the New York Giants, but six recreations maybe isnt a large enough sample size to deduce that no other adversary could disturb them.

So, lets try and violate this one down through the matchups instead. But first, a speedy update on our Pick The Playoffs contest, where three readers have called all 10 competitions accurately so far.

Can mmmbop8 6 , nbcnfl or ShadowWarrior make it a clean sweep? Or will they fall at the final impediment? Ill post the full bears in specific comments slouse shortly, but if youre within a moment of the result, do include a score prophecy for Sundays game – this will be used as a tie-breaker, if required, to decide our winner.

For now, I can announce that castigers is our overall champ for the combined regular season and postseason tournaments, having built a two-point contribute over the rest of the field with only the one competition left to play. Do assemble me in commending them on an impressive 72 remedy selects out of a possible 112 thus far( and gives not forget that two of those activities ended in ties ).

Falcons offense v Patriots defense

Atlanta extended the NFL in scoring during the course of its regular season, with Ryan averaging a nonsensical 9.3 grounds per overtaking attempt and generally performing at a tier above anything he had produced in his( already solid) career. Meanwhile , no team gave up fewer moments than the Patriots.

Its worth noting that the Falcons have not just been running up the scores against bad teams. According to Football Outsiderss advanced DVOA metrics, they faced the second-most efficient group of protections of any crew in the NFL this season. Atlanta put 38 extents on Arizona, 29 on Kansas City, 23 on Denver and then 36 on Seattle last month in the playoffs.

The Patriots have just faced a unit all season with anything close to this offensive potential. They did curtail the Steelers to a combined 33 places in two fits, but Pittsburgh were missing Ben Roethlisberger in week seven, and lost LeVeon Bell early in the AFC championship game.

What does the Falcons so dangerous is the reach of weapons at Ryans disposal. Julio Jones is an extraordinary flair quite possibly best available wide-ranging receiver in the league but if it was just a question of obstructing him in check then I would have no reluctance backing the Patriots to do so, especially after viewing how they contained Antonio Brown utilizing constant double-teams.

Repeating that strategy against Atlanta, nonetheless, would appear riskier. The Falcons do not have a standout No2 option in the receiving activity, but what the hell is do have is a whole casting of reliable pass catchers and playmakers, from Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel at receiver to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman coming out of the backfield. Assign two advocates to Jones, and will you still have enough left over?

Julio Jones, perhaps the NFLs better wide-cut receiver, will give New Englands defense a potent objection. Image: USA Today Sports/ Reuters/ USA Today Sports

The obvious alternative would be to let Malcolm Butler track Jones everywhere. He is one of few actors in the NFL who might be capable of deeming his own in such a duel. But we have not often investigated Belichick making this rigid employment of his No1 corner.

More likely, I suppose, is that the Patriots will spate the field with defensive backs, leaving as few as six souls in the box and challenging Atlanta to stay patient and extend the dance. The Falcons are quite capable of doing so, but would they stay patient enough in that scenario?

And there is at least a possibility that such an approach could play right into Atlantas handwritings. They have applied the play-action more often,( on 27.6% of Ryans passing plays, according to ProFootballFocus) and more efficiently, than any other squad in the conference. Build the lope early on with a couple of tallying drives, and suddenly it gets that little bit harder for champions to fight the bogu.

Otherwise, the one big concern I have for Atlanta on this back of the pellet revolves around the fitness of core Alex Mack, who disabled his ankle during the NFC championship game. The single most important participate on an offensive front that has helped tremendously from being able to start the same five players in every tournament, he has practiced the coming week and expected to begin on Sunday, but will he be at 100%?

That ankle is sure to be tested by an encounter with New Englands 350 lb defensive undertake, Alan Branch. If it fails, Atlanta might be in big trouble.

Patriots offense v Falcons defense

As brilliant as Ryan has been this season and I have already obliged my example for why I think he should prevail the MVP there is at least an arguing to be made that Brady, after returning from his exclusion, was even better. How do you combat a guy who completes more than 67% of his legislates, and who has a moronic 132.8 quarterback rating on third down?

The obvious rebuttal is to hit him before he gets the chance to move. Obvious, but incredibly difficult to achieve. Brady took a merely 19 sackings in 14 starts( playoffs included) this season and has excelled against the blitz for years.

Almost every unit that has toppled New England in a playoff game in the last decade has been able to generate consistent pres without sending extra humankinds after him. In possibility, Atlanta have the personnel to do the same. Vic Beasley contributed the league with 15.5 sackings in the regular season, whilst Dwight Freeney remains a highly effective situational periphery rusher as well.

In practice, though, I have some uncertainties. Beasley is yet to record a sacking in the playoffs, and you could make a event that his regular season figures in that district overstate his effectiveness. His 56 total quarterback pressures simply graded 18 th in the NFL, and he is likely to spend a significant part of Sundays game lining up opposite New Englands right attack, Marcus Cannon a man who has not allowed a sack since week one.

Whether Atlantas onslaught can fluster Tom Brady will prove crucial to the Falcons risks. Photograph: Charlie Riedel/ AP

Brady should be content to get the ball out speedily, more. The Falcons missed 136 tackles this season, according to ProFootballFocus, and allowed opposing ball-carriers to gain an average of 2.89 gardens after initial contact. Those were, respectively, the second-worst and worst such numbers of any squad in the tournament.

A reasonable conclusion for Belichick and his coaching faculty would be that it makes more sense were concentrated in plays that get the ball into receivers sides close to the line of scrimmage rather than taking kills downfield. None executing the simple-minded slant-flats elapsing theories better than Brady, who, like Ryan, has a abundance of various types of targets to is targeted at.

Chris Hogan has been the idol of New Englands playoff display so far, and his sizing cam be an asset against a protection that prizes speed over dominance. Belichick might be allured to soften Atlanta up early, use heavy organisations with a heavy quantity of LeGarrette Blount and Martellus Bennett. But if not then, hey, Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and James White all know how to do detriment, extremely.

Special teams

The Falcons might have a slight edge up the third phase, though I dont think its a huge one. Kicker Matt Bryant has put together best available season of his profession at 41 years old, the coverage forces have been solid and Eric Weems ranked sixth in the conference with an 11.4 yard punt income average. The Falcons own punter, Matt Bosher, should be feeling fresh-legged, afforded hes exclusively had to boot the pellet 44 times all season.

New Englands Ryan Allen is solid, as are the coverage gangs. There have been a few proceed mishaps during the course of the season, but Dion Lewis led a commencement return back 98 yards for a rating against the Houston Texans in the divisional round. The only swoon crimson observe be connected to kicker Stephen Gostkowski whose often high standards have passed rather, with three extra stages and four field goals missed over the course of the season.

Pick

What prepares this such a fascinating matchup is the fact that, on the surface, you can find so much better about these teams that look similar. Brady and Ryan have been the two good quarterbacks in the tournament in 2016 -1 7, both have benefited from strong pass protection and each has a enormous arsenal of varied weapons at their disposal. I expect this to be a high-scoring play.

In the end, though, I do fantasize the Patriots will have an edge on defense. I dont repute either unit is going to have a great deal of rejoice rushing the passer unless Mack truly does fights for Atlanta but I do expect Belichick to do a better occupation of scheming to slow Ryan down, take away the deep ball and test the Falcons willingness to play patiently and chip away.

Perhaps they will rise to that challenge. But Im more inclined to trust the team Ive looked do it before.

Prediction: Patriots 34 -2 8 Falcons

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