#bundesliga predictions

[probayern]

what did she (me last august) know

[miasanmuller]

Inspired by @probayern I decided to look back at my Bundesliga Predictions from the beginning of the season and now I'm asking yall to take a look at this and help me identify what did I smoke when I wrote them

Ok I wasn't that wrong on this one. I mean I got the order wrong but I was cooking something there with my mystery 5th spot I just would have never guessed it'd be Stuttgart lmao anyway it only goes downhill after this one

Call me delulu about the Pokal bc honestly and about the CL... looks like I owe yall a party but I don't think we're in the mood for that right now lol should I be happier about our gruesome death yesterday bc of this? idk

Now the last ones are where it gets good:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *takes a deep breath* HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Yeah yall can shot me in the forehead about this one lol I deserve it

Anyway can't wait to do it again next season xoxo

[acrazybayernfan]

Thanks to the lovely @chelleisamazing and to the not less lovely @miasanmuller and to my dear bestie @gxtzeizm for tagging me! 💖 I am super super late for this but for my defense I did a theater course during one week with no internet and after I passed an audition to enter a theater school and after that I was so tired that I didn't had the strength to do anything even that. I'm so sorry 🤦🏻‍♀️

bundesliga prediction time: answer the following questions about this bundesliga season

1. Top 5 Bundesliga Teams at the end of the season? 

2. How far will Bayern get in the DFB Pokal? 

3. How far will Bayern get in the Champions League? 

4. Who will be Bayerns top goal scorer? 

5. Biggest surprise? (could be anything) 

6. Biggest disappointment? (could be anything)

Well surprise, surprise… I will go with… Bayern. Even if I wouldn’t want this to happen I would still answer that, and… guess what… I want it to happen : ). For the second place I think that there’s going to be a little surprise and that Leverkusen is going to be the second-best team of the season (Xabi I believe in you!). Then I struggled to choose between BVB and Leipzig for the third place but I will go with Leipzig, even if I like the players that Dortmund got this summer and even if I think that they have a good squad I suppose that the events from last year are going to affect them this season. So BVB in fourth and Union in fifth. I wanted to had a surprise team in my top five but I don’t know if Union can be considered as a surprise anymore (also that’s probably a bad guess because it’s quite rare for a team like that to keep having a successful season after a very successful season but let’s hope “finger cross”) 

I hope that I’m not too optimistic but I want us to win it. We have been away from this trophy for way too long, and I carnally desire to in it again now. 

A semi-final would be great but the team really have to improve for that or we need an easy draw ( < not going to happen). A quarter-final is probably more realistic. 

Obviously, Harry Kane, not a very original answer but I can’t see it any other way. He seems to have fitted in the squad quite easily and even if later he struggles a little wish would be normal, I still think that he will have a too important lead to be caught up. But I want Sebastian Haller to be the second best striker of the season because he deserves that after what happened last season. 

Bayern is going to win all the matches against Gladbach (yes I’m in full delulu mode)

I don’t want that to happen but I’m afraid that Florian Witz will have some difficulties this season, after such a terrible injury it can take a long time for a player to really come back to his best level.

I'm tagging @miasanmannschaft, @miasanmia44, @nyctophilic0vitnir, @uncoolfc, @leongolretzka (you have probably ll done this already but just in case... however feel free to ignore 😘)

[gxtzeizm]

okay so i was tagging my beloved bella aka @probayern to do the new season of bundesliga predictions so, here we go....

bundesliga prediction time: answer the following questions about this bundesliga season

1. Top 5 Bundesliga Teams at the end of the season?

2. How far will Bayern get in the DFB Pokal?

3. How far will Bayern get in the Champions League?

4. Who will be Bayerns top goal scorer?

5. Biggest surprise? (could be anything)

6. Biggest disappointment? (could be anything)

1. i don't want to sound so confident about the number 1 but i just want bayern to be on the top, no doubt despite all those problems that we might possibly facing for this entire season. second might be leipzig i afraid. not only because of my hatred against any sports team from that fraudass energy can company, tbh they're kinda have a strong squad to challenge bayern for the league title. third might be dortmund i mean yeah they're truly good but you know, dortmund being dortmund 🫢🫢. fourth will be freiburg idk why i just randomly pick them but i can see how they can have that potential to be in the title fight with other top teams as well. frankfurt will be number 5 not because of me being a fan of silly eagle team but considering that they have really good new signings during this transfer window, maybe we can have a truly decent performance for this season if they not being silly as always 🙃🙃.

2. considering that last year we were able to manage to reach quarter finals, maybe we can see them able to reach at least to the semi finals only of we not being drawn with teams like freiburg, leipzig or gladbach you know what i'm saying.

3. i try to not being so delulu about it but i guess we will able to break bayern's quarter final curse and maybe able to reach semis or (not to be delulu) finals. but yeah we only just need the whole team to get their shit together for the whole season and not being screwed up during middle of the season (literally not a perfect time for the fc hollywood drama if you ask me 🙃)

4. okay but it's kinda funny when thinking that harold will probably be the bayern's top scorer for this season 🤭🤭. okay but harry kane aside, other player that i can able to see being the bayern's top scorer of season is probably will be serge i guess. he just needs to sharpen his finishing skills and it will works.

5. hmmmm well maybe seeing some of underdog teams that perform very well and able to challenge top teams of the league just like union during last season and i looking forward to it actually

6. no but i really don't want to say this but i'm so scared rn with how's the condition of manu's for this season tbh :((((...i don't want to say more because i truly not preparing for any possibilites happen this season about him 😔😔💔

i'm tagging @acrazybayernfan @miasanmuller @thomas-mvller @fabioquartararhoe @moonliivee and other mutuals who want to do this (and i'm not sure those that i'm tagging here are already did this or not actually 🙃🙃)

[sportychurch]

Odds On: Bundesliga - Matchday 24 - Free Football Betting Tips, Picks & Predictions

Bundesliga Matchday 24 betting tips and predictions for season 2022/23 from Oddspedia. We’ve got the best betting picks and … source

[footballandfiasco]

💫bundesliga predictions💫

1. Top 5 Bundesliga Teams at the end of the season?:

Bayern, because i simply refuse to believe leipzig could come close to a chance & if they do, help us all. Leverkusen, i'm rooting for them to have an outstanding season. Leipzig, no comment. Dortmund, because i feel like they won't be able to use their momentum? i feel like they might be too desperate & it will backfire? i'm still rooting for seb haller & jule brandt to have a banging season. and finally, Frankfurt on 5, because not only am i biased but they made insane transfers and i really really hope they will play a great season!!

2. How far will Bayern get in the DFB Pokal?:

i feel like it will be pretty similar to last season. but maybe they will come closer go 'their goals' and tragically fail in the semi finals with kane missing a penalty (england vs france style) or sth like that.

3. How far will Bayern get in the Champions League?:

at one point, i thought, that with a lot of luck we could actually reach the finals. but it really depends on whether they get their sht together now. so i say quarter finals & then lose to real madrid.

4. Who will be Bayerns top goal scorer?:

it would be very very funny if it was not harald kane. but second, i say serge!

5. Biggest surprise? (could be anything):

eintracht frankfurt herbstsieger, you heard it here first! the first half of the season will be insane!! *manifesting*

also, watch union berlin survive the champions league group stage!

and, seb haller, 20 scorer minimum. :))

6. Biggest disappointment? (could be anything):

maybe just dortmund in general, because as i said, they might not live up to the expectations?

and player wise (ending this with a bang), i don't see manu coming back in old strength & maybe this will be his last season (don't hate me).

thanks for tagging me @gnabries <3

[ngfootball]

German Bundesliga Prediction - Eintracht Frankfurt VS Werder Bremen

(https://live1.nowgoal15.com/)

Team Analysis Eintracht Frankfurt, a team that was in the relegation zone last season, has shown significant improvement this season. Currently with 10 wins, 11 draws, and 6 losses, they are in 6th place in the league, leading Augsburg by 5 points. Maintaining their current good form, it is highly likely that they will qualify for European competition next season. The improvement in Frankfurt's performance mainly comes from their excellent home record, with a 90% unbeaten rate and a close to 50% win rate. For a team that was in the relegation zone last year, this season is undoubtedly a successful one.

SV Werder Bremen, a long-standing team in the Bundesliga, only finished 13th in the league last season. Their performance has not improved significantly this season, currently sitting in 10th place with 8 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses. With no specific goals, they can easily end this season's journey with a relaxed attitude. Perhaps because of this, Werder Bremen's recent form has declined significantly, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. During this period, they have scored less than 1 goal per game on average, while conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game, showing a significant decline compared to the season's average level.

Odds Analysis Regarding this match, the initial handicap for Eintracht Frankfurt was set at 0.5, with most subsequent data rising to 0.75, showing strong support for Frankfurt. However, despite Frankfurt's recent form not being strong, and in the last game they were even held to a draw by Union Berlin despite being favored, their overall home win rate is still less than fifty percent. As for Werder Bremen, they are considered a mid-table team, but their recent form has suddenly declined, which must have certain internal reasons. In this match, Frankfurt has deepened the handicap in advance, making it more difficult for the home team to win. The resistance is still evident, but Frankfurt should be able to win this match.

Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt

[probayern]

ok friends preseason is over so it's time for my annual very bad bundesliga predictions

1. Top 5 Bundesliga Teams at the end of the season? 2. How far will Bayern get in the DFB Pokal? 3. How far will Bayern get in the Champions League? 4. Who will be Bayerns top goal scorer? 5. Biggest surprise? (could be anything) 6. Biggest disappointment? (could be anything)

this is SO hard this year dear god. i'm gonna say bayern, dortmund, leverkusen, leipzig, stuttgart. reasoning being: i'm manifesting. and also i DO think it will be extremely difficult for leverkusen to replicate the success they had last year, which relied, at times, heavily on good vibes. their collapse against atalanta hints at something i think we'll see more this year as it becomes less about "miracle run to title" and more about defending it. i think dortmund have added a lot of important players (remains to be seen if they'll use them well). and stuttgart have lost a lot of important players, so i see them slipping a bit. but we'll see.

it is TIME. i am saying semifinals at least this year. this has to happen eventually and we've been burned so many times that i hope the players actually care a bit more and can get us past the fucking quarterfinal.

i'm not answering this one. i refuse to speak. we all know what i want.

harry kane :)

i think this season will cement the victory of the young, inexperienced coach. i can see both kompany and sahin doing well with their squads, which have a lot of good quality parts and motivation from last season. maybe this is naive of me because i'd also really like to see it but... i think it'd be cool to see some of these newer ideas refresh the bundesliga as they have with xabi alonso and leverkusen

i think at least one player i really love will end up with no playing time/leave the club (if not now then in january). i can't believe we've made it this far into the transfer window with only losing matthijs, and that was the one i most expected. but we've got a LOT of attacking/midfield talent and....... i'm nervous

i feel like these predictions are worse than usual because i've been so absent and focused on school so GOD knows what will actually happen but if other people do them pls feel free to tag me i like seeing everyone's :)

[miasanmuller]

My dear friend Bella @probayern tagged me to make my Bundesliga predictions for the next season so here am I :) Let's just hope I get more good things right this time than last year lol

Bundesliga prediction time: answer the following questions about this bundesliga season

1. Top 5 Bundesliga Teams at the end of the season? 2. How far will Bayern get in the DFB Pokal? 3. How far will Bayern get in the Champions League? 4. Who will be Bayerns top goal scorer? 5. Biggest surprise? (could be anything) 6. Biggest disappointment? (could be anything)

Ok so obviously we're at the top as usual, with L*ipzig as a close runner-up. Dortmund and Neverkusen are also at the top 5 but I'm not quite sure where. As for the last team... I guess almost everybody will go with either Union on Freiburg and they'e likely the safest bets, but I'm chosing not to make an exact prediction for the fifth team as I believe the Bundesliga enjoys surprising us with some wild cards from time to time. So I'm guessing the fifth team in the top 5 will not be Union, Freiburg or Frankfurt, but a completely different team no one expects lmao.

Quarter-finals bye

Honestly? Honestly?? If we make it out of the group stage alive I'm throwing a party lol I think we die at quarter-finals again.

*sigh* I'm going with Kane because we payed a lot for that man to do specifically that and I want to believe this money was well spent.

We'll have a working midfield by the end of 2023 and it will be surprisingly good. I'm unsure whether it'll be with Josh + Laimer or Laimer + Leon or if Josh and Leon will somehow make it work or if we'll sign someone else or whatever. But I think we'll get over the midfield chaos soon enough but we will have defensive problems so we'll suffer anyway

Manu won't come back this year, only in the beginning of 2024... and he'll never be as good again. I don't know how this will affect us bc I'm confident we'll eventually sign another GK soon... But this will have a huge effect on the morale and will have divise effects on Bayernblr. Hopefully I'm wrong about this one, but considering how thing's are going... And maybe this doesn't quite fit as a disappointment since this is something most of us are kinda expecting, but I also think we all have at least a bit of hope of seeing him coming back just as great as he was so yeah.

And with this sad note I finish my predictions lmao I'm tagging @thomas-mvller @miss-i-ship-it @shrimpeon and @acrazybayernfan to submit their predictions too :)

[woso-dreamzzz]

Wolfsburg

Hardersson x Daughter!Reader

Part of The Big Adventures Universe

Summary: You finally make it

After a few years at Barcelona, winning everything there is to win and getting married along the way, you leave the club.

It sends ripples through the community.

You got your start at Linköping, playing minimal minutes there but enough that you got Arsenal's attention. From Arsenal and your World Cup performance, you got Barcelona's attention.

A loan at Lyon and your subsequent contract extension and return, had everyone thinking you would stay at Barcelona for a lot longer. But you see out your contract, get married and decide to move again.

You and Talia were somewhat of a power couple at Barcelona. One at the front, one at the back. Barcelona was safe when the two of you were on the pitch.

But now you're leaving.

When you were younger, still a teenager, all of your contracts and the subsequent discussions went through Magda and Pernille. They had to sign off on them.

Now, they don't.

The announcement that you're leaving Barcelona happens in the winter. The club says that you aren't renewing your contract and that they thank you for your service.

Within hours, the community is in uproar from fans to players.

There was never any indication that you wanted to leave, you hadn't even told Magda and Pernille you weren't going to stay.

But you play out the rest of the season, showing everyone that Barcelona is letting you go begrudgingly. You are still leaps and bounds ahead of the second-choice keeper so clearly the club weren't the ones making the decision to let you go.

That's when the rumours start.

Practically every big club in the world has put out feelers for you.

There's a campaign on Twitter to get you to return to 'home' to Arsenal and another one saying that Linköping is attempting to get you back.

Familiar with you and your play style, Lyon tries to tempt you.

You get several lucrative offers from NWSL teams that you push away instantly. You have no ambition to play in the American league.

Lots of English teams try to snatch you up, Chelsea in particular but you reject their offer with a laugh. Manchester City and Aston Villa both send you fairly good offers and even Liverpool tries their hand to sway you.

The Bayern Munich coach is also very vocal with his plans to get you to come to Germany.

The funniest offer comes from Real Madrid as if they could tempt Barcelona's star keeper to dress in white.

Either way, there are so many rumours and so many choices that no one can quite predict where you'll be playing your football next season.

Then, on the first day of the transfer season, the video drops.

It zooms in on a picture of Pernille's Bundesliga winning team. She's holding the trophy proudly in one arm and you in the other. You're beaming at the camera in your own Wolfsburg jersey.

'Welcome Home' the caption proudly proclaims and the video cuts.

You step out from the shadows, the camera zooming in on the Wolfsburg badge proudly on your chest.

Magda keeps watching the video but Pernille sits there in shock.

You don't have to tell them anything. You don't have to tell them where you're going and what you're doing but Pernille is still blindsided as everything suddenly makes sense.

There were so many rumours and so many questions but Wolfsburg had never been apart of it.

Pernille feels stupid now that she thinks about it.

You'd told her once that you'd only consider leaving Barcelona for one team.

She feels crazy now for not knowing your plans just by the silence.

"Was it a nice surprise?" You ask, arms crossed as you lean in the doorway.

"You kept that quiet," Magda says with a laugh.

You shrug. "The clues were there if you just looked."

With so many big and small teams clamouring for you, it did look a bit suspicious now that Wolfsburg was radio silent on the idea of getting you from Barcelona.

"The jersey," Pernille says, sounding a little choked up as she stands," It looks good on you."

You smile at her, a small thing as she crosses the room to cradle your face in her hands. "Of course it does. It's Wolfsburg."

Pernille can still remember your first Wolfsburg jersey. You were tiny, still a baby and were more interested in sucking on the collar than looking at the camera Pernille was using to capture the moment.

But you'd cried when she tried to change you out of it. You cried and sobbed and screeched until Pernille put you down for your nap still wearing it.

You'd had a collection of Wolfsburg shirts as you grew up. They were without a doubt your favourite team, the only team you were willing to move away from your wife for.

You had never been anything but complimentary about Wolfsburg.

It shouldn't be a shock but still, as Pernille looks at you, she can't help but see the little baby you used to be, wandering around the Wolfsburg training centre in your shirt and shorts.

She can't quite reconcile that version of you with the version of you now, the greatest goalkeeper in the world by a mile.

You have quite the resume of great teams. You have so many medals and trophies and awards.

And now you finally get to play for the team that you've loved since you were a baby.

[cant-get-no-worse]

'Let's all take a moment to remember the somptuous ref manipulation/acting performance given by Luis Suarez on March 2017. This guy practically gave us the Remontada as much as Neymar 🙏'

Ciene you can't just drop this and not elaborate

Took me about a month but oh but anon, I will. A year ago, I watched a short documentary of a former French ref who analyzed the Remontada (heavily criticized for its refereeing decisions, dubious penalties given or not given, etc) and the external factors that made it happen. Absolutely fascinating stuff. I'll give you a bullet point resume of the doc here, since it's exclusively in French.

So here's why La Remontada isn't only the consequence 22 players' mentality and in-game performances for 90 minutes but rather a product of a boiling setting, wrong UEFA predictions, inexperienced referees, weak communication, experienced players' social manipulation on top of 22 minds in radical different headspaces.

Practical context.

February 14th, 2017. Paris Saint-Germain beats FC Barcelona 4-0 at the Parc des Princes in the first leg of the UCL's round of 16.

March 8th, 2017. FC Barcelona receives Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of the UCL's round of 16.

2. Emotional context.

After the absolute "desastre" (Mundo Deportivo's front page) that was February, 14th, everyone, save a few Barça players and part of the culés, consider the second leg to be already done and over with. No team has ever broken a four goal difference in a UCL knockout stage and the sheer beating taken by Barça at the Parc stands fresh in everyone's minds as a chapter closed. PSG has secured its ticket into quarter-finals. Barça has fallen deeper and deeper since their 2015 treble.

March 6, 2017. Four PSG players do an at-the-time chill, but after the facts bit of a surreal interview where they talk about the up coming game and their feelings about it. One Marco Verratti notably jokingly asks the three others if, hypothetically speaking, they'd be happy if they lost the game 5 - 1 but still scrapped by to the Quarter Finals. 2 of them say they'd be fine with it. The 2 others, Verratti included, say they'd be disgusted having conceided that many goals; "You let 5 go in, people are gonna laugh at you."

3. UEFA's wrong predicitions and choices of referees.

Refereeing a knockout UCL game is the stuff of what the UEFA calls "elite" referees, the best of the best in Europe.

Following the 4 - 0 of the first leg, the UEFA, deeming like 80% of football world the encounter to be over, decides to appoint a up-and-coming referee in what is talked about as an "easy game" within the Federation. It's still a knockout round game, so there are still the bright stage lights, but the stakes are deemed to be nul because of the 4 - 0: the perfect stage to give a referee a safe space to grow experience and for the UEFA to test him in stress-free conditions.

4. The refereeing squad of March 8th, 2017.

Deniz Aytekin is the main referee of the game. He's got a solid reputation as the 2nd best German referee at the time and destined to replace the old first one.

This is his first ever UCL knockout round to referee.

The whole refereeing team consists of 5 guys. Four of them are FIFA referees, meaning they've already referee international games. One of them, which we'll call Double B., is however only a Bundesliga referee. He's never refereed a European game in his life, never been under such bright spotlights. He's there as an Additional assistant referee (AAR), meaning he's behind the goal line to observe if any incident occurs near the penalty area.

He's the weak link of this whole refereeing team.

5. A boiling setting.

Despite the heavy 4 - 0 slapping received by the home side in the first leg, the attendance on March 8th is 96,290. The stands are jam-packed, heated by Luis Enrique's words of the previous night in press conference:

But the audience must be a cauldron, before and during. There will be no need for a break. I don't ask them anything. But we will need a Camp Nou like a volcano.

The setting in which everything happens plays a key part in how the night's going to go. The chants, jeers, shouts, whistles and protests of almost a hundred thousand people are directed at the opposite players, but also and more importantly at this team of referees thrown onto the pitch. One of which has never refereed a European game, and another one who's experimenting his first UCL's knockout round.

This isn't me waxing some poetics by the way, but a factor to take into account when analyzing this match. New Zealand's famous haka, the ceremonial dance executed by the All Blacks at the beginning of each of their rugby match, has been critized for being a tool for the team to take psychological ascend over their opponents. This debate has taken place around a one minute ceremonial dance performed by fifteen players. Now picture ninety minutes of ceaseless jeering produced by a hundred thousand people all around you, constantly, added to the twenty-two players, their coaches, their staffs and substitutes on the pitch pressing you at every decision.

That's why UCL games require "elite referees", and that's why it was the mistake of UEFA to call up inadequately prepared referees to this game that changed everything.

6. First shake (3')

Luis Suarez (Barça, n°9) scores with his head. The 4 -0 is reduced to 3 - 0 (aggreg.) not even three minutes into the match. In the referee's head this match, which should've gone rather peacefully and without surprises, is already shaping up to be something else than a mere testing game.

More importantly, as players celebrate wildly, you can see Double B., the referee in charge of checking the ball has crossed the line and can indeed count as a goal, looking at an assistant referee rather than taking the decision himself. First tip of something wrong: you got a referee who's not assured enough in his own judgment to make a call.

At such a stage, a weakness in decision-making is unforgivable. It will prove true later.

7. Key fault (23')

That's Edinson Cavani (PSG, n°9) in white. That's Gerard Piqué, local angry catalan man (Barça, n°3) in blue.

Piqué just made an uncontrolled tackle from behind. Piqué, known for protesting at every corner, walks away without saying anything when Aytekin pulls a yellow card.

That's because he knows in any other circomstance and game, this action should've been a straight red.

This will prove key in the game's unfolding, acting as a pressure point on the referee's future decisions and players' behaviour.

8. Tense situations. Luis Suarez, local Karen. (23' - 45')

The next twenty minutes are a swarm of potential-penalties situations and complaints. Neymar falls in the penalty box but isn't given a penalty. Around the 30', Cavani takes a yellow for referee contesting: knowing Piqué's first tackle deserved a red, Cavani is outraged at the lack of yellow showed by Aytekin the second time Piqué fouls him, and reclaims one is showed. He's the one that takes the card instead, sending him furious.

Most notably, at around 35', Suarez almost goes to head-to-head challenge with Meunier over some action at a corner. He then proceeds to get up Aytekin's face, protesting over what seemingly is nothing.

It is nothing, but what Suarez is doing isn't innocent. Protesting and contesting every call the ref does is a behaviour he's known for, has got the referees wary of players like him, and not only because it's annoying: because over the length of 90 minutes and within such setting, a player constantly contesting and protesting calls can get in the head of lesser-accustomed referees.

The devil works hard, but Luis Suarez, appointed contester in chief, works harder. That too will prove true later, at the tipping point of the match.

9. Half time (45')

At half-time, the socre is 2 - 0, five yellow cards and four potential-penalty situations the ref has had to deal with. Players and referee squad go back to their locker rooms to a feverish stadium. At that point, a referee is redoing the first half of the game in his head: what Aytekin, and the players & staff, are seeing, are all the accumulation of non-given cards, given cards, tense non-penalty calls and contests. This piles up in everyone's mindset and creates a serie of pressure points in the unconscious - or conscious, in case of players like Luis Suarez, used to play on such chord - of everyone on that pitch.

This is very much not what the UEFA had planned for this team of referees.

9. Turning point. (50')

At the 50', Neymar (Barça, n°11) in blue is tripped by Meunier (PSG, n°12) in white inside the penalty area.

Aytekin doesn't give the penalty. Players protest. Aytekin consults the sidelines referee. A few seconds later, he gives the penalty for Barcelona.

This precise moment is where Aytekin loses the match and what explain the Remontada.

See, when this action happens, Aytekin is there (bottom, in yellow glow):

About 14m from the action: the most well-placed to judge what happened and make a call.

Up there (top of the screen, circled in red), you got Double B., the Bundesliga ref, who's the furthest from the action, the less experimented of the referee squad, who shouldn't referee at this level. As Aytekin says nothing, players start protesting, and start swarming up Double B. :

That's Luis Suarez at the left, by the way. I know, color me surprised. Local referee's-face-lurking man, just short of hand-written protest signs but not of hand movements to express his sheer outrage at the call, how could you not call this, there is foul, see, see, there's penalty, call it, how can you not see this.

So Suarez is once again complaining - with Rafinha (Barça, n°12) - but this time not to Aytekin: he's complaining to the very much non experienced Double B. And as Aytekin hasn't announced a penalty, what's Suarez doing? What he always does, what he's been doing since minute 0, probably been contesting nurses' opinion since he was out of his mother's womb. Provokes, simulates, criticizes, contests. There, he's pointing at the penalty area. Now what's Double B. doing? Not staying in his place, that's for sure: he walks on the pitch and towards Aytekin, forcing the latter to acknowledge the opinion of his AAR by going to him. Thing is, it's not like Double B.'s opinion was 100% his: he's inexperienced, far from the action, litteraly swarmed by Barça players telling him there's foul and penalty, and under the pressure of 90 thousand people currently yelling him the same thing.

So, instead of acting like as a proper AAR - an assistant referee - and letting the main ref make the right call from where Aytekin was the most well-placed to, or staying where he was and letting Ayteking know his opinion in the privacy of their headset, Double B. publicly backs Aytekin to a wall.

Seconds later, Aytekin points to the penalty spot and, amending his previous decision, gives the penalty. Messi (Barça, n°10) transforms it.

3 - 0.

Aytekin's just lost control of his referee team, and he's just lost control of the game.

10. Getting control back. (50' - 67')

So at that point, you have on your hands a match that has completely changed, a boiling situation escalated into prime Balkans 1912, a stadium on fire, players thinking they can do about anything, and a referee squad who starts taking decisions in your place.

Aytekin isn't an idiot. He's a ref with experience, no matter how little in the UCL. He knows he has to take back the upper hand in this game, or it's going to be hell. When a ref has to tell others something, he does this through his headset: this is what Aytekin must have done after the 50' minute, following the previous incindent. He most certainly has send a message to his assistant refs and linesmen, reminding them of how it worked: they have authority in the designed zones they're astrained to, but he remains the main ref and the one to make a call elsewhere.

This reminder of hierarchy is not without incidence on the follow up.

In the following minutes, Aytekin refuses to give penalty to Neymar when he falls in the box.

At 62', Cavani scores, bringing hope to everyone on PSG's side, but also allowing the referees to breathe: this game might finally fall back on its feet. At 67', Aytekin immediately calls Suarez's bluff when he dives into the penalty box and gives him a yellow. You can visibly see Aytekin regaining confidence in his own judgments and taking back the prevalence in calls. Everything is finally resolving itself.

Is it, though?

Two issues.

we're at the 67' minute. This is the eight yellow card showed by Aytekin. Amongst referee, there's a sort of implicit accord that beyond five yellow cards, you should start putting reds, to take back control of the game. A red makes all your over-excited players stand still.

minutes pass, and soon enough we're entering the 80th. This match is a high-intensity one, both mentality as we've detailed extensively, but also physically. It's back and forth all the time for Aytekin, who's the only referee constantly running all around the pitch with the players.

Eventually, Aytekin pays this physical intensity, and this reestablishment of hierarchy within the referee squad.

11. Fucking up. (85')

Di Maria (PSG, n°11) goes back for a speedy counter-attack towards Barcelona's goals; he's fouled inside the penalty area by Mascherano (Barça, n°14).

Highlighted in yellow, the other assistant referee.

Highlighted absolutely nowhere to be seen, Aytekin.

Aytekin is too far away, he's been running around for almost ninety minutes, he's worn out. So for once, the most well-placed referee to make the call for this action is the Assistant Referee.

Slight issue there: this assistant referee is part of the squad that's been put back into place some twenty minutes ago by Aytekin over an almost point-by-point similar situation happening on the other side of the pitch. He's heard his colleagues and himself get told that in such cases, it's Aytekin who gets the final call. Problem is, it should indeed be Aytekin to make the final call, but only if Aytekin is in a position to call anything: this isn't the case here. The Assistant is utterly alone and the closest to the action. He's the one who has now a legitimate say to whether or not what he saw counts as a penalty.

He doesn't say anything. Aytekin doesn't call the action. No penalty given to PSG. This could've been the goal that would have turned the history of the match.

It doesn't. The score remains 3 - 1 on the pitch, 5 - 3 on aggreg.

12. Luis Suarez. Yes. (91')

After Neymar reduces the 5 - 3 to 5 - 4 at the 88' in a free kick that's enough to make a grown man tear up each time he recalls it, there comes this.

These images make me howl with laughter. I genuinely cannot help but laugh out loud each time I see the face of this man, giving Camp Nou an acting lesson worthy of being hidden behind a MasterClass paywall. Because spoiler alert: this bitch has not been tripped by Marquinhos (PSG, n°5).

There is a contact, but this isn't a penalty contact. There's an amplification on Suarez's behalf - no one who's been tripped falls with their hands in the hair, your first instinct dictates you to put them in front of you to soften the fall - and borderlining on simulation.

Aytekin gives a penalty and a yellow card to Marquinhos. At shis tage of the match, with these stakes, at the point where the action happened, if you're gonna call penalty and thus validate the fact that you think Marquinhos willingly fouled Suarez as he was going to the goal, this shouldn't have been yellow. This should've been straight red.

Giving a yellow highlight Aytekin's incoherence in his decision making. Confusion furthermore highlighted by what happens next.

Do you know what's the rule for penalty taking? As soon as 2 players, one of each team, have intruded the surface as the taker is taking it, the penalty has to be redone.

Do you know how many players are in the penalty area? Seven.

Aytekin doesn't make the call.

Barcelona gets its fifth goal at the 91' minute. 5 - 5 (aggreg.)

13. Match ended. (91' - 95')

Over the course of the next few minutes, Suarez manages to avoid a card once again, having trapped Aytekin in a mental game where Aytekin can't give him a yellow without giving him red, Verratti gets a yellow, the stadium cries at every opportunity. It's the tenth yellow card Aytekin has given in this match.

This is Argentina - Netherlands 2022. At this point, so many yellow cards don't mean a single thing other than the referee has well and truly lost control of the game.

At this point, Aytekin knows he's fucked up, massively so. His only redeeming grace would be for Barcelona not to pass to the Quarters. He'd go under the radar for a bit, until the UEFA use him again for another game, and his career would get out of this mess mostly fine.

Tough luck.

So the Remontada is the result of a crash fall from 4 - 0 heights, a profession of faith by a 25 old, unwavering hope of a thousands, failure of UEFA to consider UCL football as an ever-changing tide where the beaten team isn't condemned to defeat, failure of the winning team to conserve a cool head, inexperience of a referee, lack of proper communication, wrong calls, non calls, too much calls, peer pressure and one very, very decided Urugayan.

In short: I understand where the feeling is coming from (ie: obvious failures of refereeing) but I don't believe the Remontada to be rigged. I believe it is merely a splendid display of the impossible rendered possible by humans being humans, at their strength as in their complete failings, and a serie of unfortunat/fortunate events (depending on which side you're standing on) resulting from each action, decision and mindset of the involved actors. UEFA business men are humans. So are players. So are referees. It was unfair. If I was a PSG supporter, I believe I too would be calling it rigged for lack of better words. I just so happen to have been on the lucky side. It's the referee's fault, it's everyone's fault. It was avoidable. Or perhaps it wasn't. Beautiful football for some, nightmarish evening for other, at the end of the day, it just was, and that's about it.

[footballandfiasco]

❗@ everyone who participated in the kicktipp game last season, i restarted the game so we can play again for this season!! you should have automatically joined & the game should have updated for you, if thats not the case i'll attach the link down below :)

and everyone else who wants to join & predict the bundesliga game, you are very welcome!! we don't take ourselves too seriously & have a lot of fun! come join: https://www.kicktipp.de/footyblr/

[thommi-tomate]

Holger Badstuber Column

Hello football fans!

New Year's Eve is just around the corner and the Bundesliga presents us with a few nice surprises when we look at the table. Bayer 04 Leverkusen with coach Xabi Alonso in first place, VfB Stuttgart in third, Union Berlin close to the relegation zone, BVB 15 points behind the leaders - I watched a lot of games, I was at the Allianz Arena and visited my former club in Stuttgart.

I've seen good football, exciting football, thrilling football. This season offers much of what I have loved about this sport for decades. Time for an interim assessment with four highlights and three weak points, and of course I won't let the championship prediction get away from me. How do you think the race for the championship will go? You can read my assessment in the text below. First the highlights.

Leverkusen enjoys winning

First place for Leverkusen is no surprise in principle. Coach Xabi Alonso's team plays consistently and has not yet been defeated. The style of play is clear, structured, sometimes ruthless. It's well-rounded, harmonious. It shows me that the coach's idea is being implemented consistently.

What's more, they have slowly taken a liking to winning. They're really up for it! That makes them extra dangerous for the competition. With his skills, Florian Wirtz stands out for me among a number of top players such as Boniface, Xhaka, Hofmann, Frimpong and Grimaldo.

The star, however, remains Alonso. As a player, he used to have everything under control on the six, but now he has managed to impart his knowledge as a coach. He combines competence with authority. Xabi Alonso will be coaching a really big team sooner rather than later.

Soothing calm in the Bayern environment

The leak at Säbener Strasse seems to have been plugged. Hardly any disagreements or disputes have been reported. For the club, this is a welcome development after the constant unrest surrounding the club in recent years

A number of positions have been filled - the decision to bring Christoph Freund on board as sports director was absolutely the right one. He is a good man with a good eye for talent and experience in developing players. Together with coach Thomas Tuchel, whom I hold in high esteem, I trust him to set up a framework that is Bayern-like again. The seed has been sown.

Harry Kane: More than a 9

25 goals in 22 competitive games, plus eight assists: WOW, what a record! What makes Harry Kane so valuable is his versatility. Compared to Robert Lewandowski, for example, Kane is not "just" a goalscorer, but also a ten-man who often plays the decisive final ball.

Kane combines the numbers 9 and 10, which is what makes him so dangerous, he also lets himself drop at times and is therefore less tangible for defenders. Every cent of this immense investment has already paid off for FC Bayern. I can only congratulate him once again on this transfer.

VfB Stuttgart: A very strong block

I once experienced how much the region lives and shakes when VfB plays, both as an active professional and as a guest in the stadium this season. These fans, this club and its environment deserve a stable season. The people in charge speak with one voice, the squad has been super strengthened in terms of positions with Stiller, Mittelstädt and Undav. Coach Sebastian Hoeneß has established a gallant power football that perfectly suits this dynamic club.

The players also look fresh and fit. With keeper Nübel, the back four and the two back sixes, there is a very strong block, a real unit. That creates consistency and reliability and, last but not least, defensive balance. I hope that VfB don't lose any top players in the winter and simply see the season through in this constellation. Then at least fifth place is certain!

Squad gaps at FCB: Transfers are needed for titles

First of all, a big compliment from me to Aleksandar Pavlovic. I liked what I saw of him. He has potential. He'll get his chance to really gain a foothold at Bayern in the future. But he's not the solution to achieve the goals now. Experience is the trump card in this position.

If FCB still want to win titles, which I logically assume they will, they need to bring in quality reinforcements in the winter. A physically strong, tall, simple-playing six-man and a right-back are urgently needed. To a certain extent, the season hinges on the winter transfer window. I can't say whether Bayern will be able to close the gaps in the squad. We'll have to be surprised.

Too fast, too much at Union

It's a bit of a shame, but it was also a bit predictable. Triple the workload, mixing it up with transfers, that's what messed up the team. It even got to the point where coach Urs Fischer had to go.

I didn't expect that and that Union would slip so far down the table. I still like the club, it has established itself in the Bundesliga with a well thought-out style of play and unity. Recently, it seemed as if the "Irons" had regained their composure. Please keep it up!

Köln's fall from grace

It had already become apparent in the summer that coach Steffen Baumgart's energy-sapping philosophy was continuing to wear thin. Added to this were crucial departures such as Ellyes Skhiri. Now the team has not only lost its greed, but also its balance. The quality is no longer sufficient.

Baumgart is now gone and his successor will not get any new players because the International Court of Arbitration for Sport has confirmed FIFA's ban on transfers for two transfer periods. Fear of relegation is rampant in Cologne - and rightly so.

And who will be champion?

In January, many professionals from the Bundesliga will be at the Africa Cup and the Asian Championships. One team that will be particularly hard hit is Bayer 04 Leverkusen. They could be missing up to six players. At Bayern, Minjae Kim and Noussair Mazraoui are likely to be traveling. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting was surprisingly not nominated for Cameroon's national team.

Depending on which team compensates better for the losses, the second half of the season will start with a boost. There will be a duel between Leverkusen and Bayern right up to the last matchday. But FC Bayern will always be my favorite to win the championship.

[1x2mathtips]

FC Kaiserslautern vs FC Magdeburg

Bundesliga 2 mathematical football predictions.

Most probable outcome for FC Kaiserslautern vs FC Magdeburg is:Over 2.5 goals with a probability of 70.89%

[gnabries]

btw can everyone please get out their bundesliga predictions from last year and collectively clown about how wrong we all were lmao