#broadly speaking - everything she has ever said or judged has been done so correctly
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Rhaenys Targaryen being perceptive as HECK:
Devotion has never sat well with him. Where he goes, he wishes to be his own master. [...] Not as such (will he challenge her). But neither can he allow her to command him.
"Neither can he allow her to command him." - We never see Rhaenyra actually order Daemon's flight to Harrenhal. Not directly. It was his choice to go when he did, it was his plan to being with, at the start of the whole thing - to create a toehold in the Riverlands. It was Daemon's instincts and feelings. He follows his own path.
Again, Jaehaerys's murder was done without Rhaenyra's sanction, he chafed against staying on Dragonstone whilst she searched for Luke's remains, and he took charge of the war council and drew his sword against Otto without waiting for her leave to escalate. He addresses Otto's terms before she does. Whilst he shows loyalty and believes his motives to be selfless and his allegiance as true, it's not true deference. He seeks power/independence where he can.
Devotion and love don't sit well with him, though he has great capacity for it - we see him struggle with those feelings and the warring sides of his nature during Harrnehal: his brother, his niece, his second wife. His ignorance of his daughters. There is a corruption to his love. An acidity.
"Where he goes, he wishes to be his own master" = he goes to Harrenhal, and wishes to be his own master, and even King.
He doesn't not challenge her "as such" = he never raises banners against her, never pushes for his own claim other than in private conversations. Still, his behaviour causes Rhaenyra to have doubts in herself as Queen and others to have doubts in her as well.
It absolutely challenges outside perceptions of her rule - his lack of communication creates fractures in her council, leading, amongst other things, Alfred to question her suitability. It also makes her strategy wayward as they cannot be sure of ground support for any campaign. She's doing things she shouldn't have to do because of his behaviour.
His behaviour also challenges her because the things that he does impacts how her cause is received. Her name is cursed in King's Landing because of what he enacted, leading to the death of Jaehaerys. They blame her for what he did in her name.
Otto Hightower would never have allowed this. Hotter blood has prevailed, I think. The young men have taken the bit in their teeth. They wish to punish, to avenge. Soon they will not even remember what it was that began the war in the first place.
Otto Hightower did, indeed, not allow or know anything about sending Arryk to assassinate Rhaenyra, leading to the death of both twins. In fact, Otto was appalled by the scheme.
It was, as Rhaenys surmises done on the orders of the "young men" (Aegon, and the less young Cole) - as punishment and revenge for the death of Jaehaerys.
Aegon has "declared" war following the death of his son and has seized on offence. He did this whilst his blood ran hot: a scene where he is smashing up Viserys's model.
We teeter now at the point where none of it will matter. And the desire to kill and burn takes hold and reason is forgotten.
The deaths of the children (Luke & Jaehaerys) in the scene with Alicent and Rhaenyra, ultimately don't affect the idea of peace or war. Alicent does not change her behaviour due to the loss of a grandson, and Rhaenyra does not for the loss of her son, either to make war or peace more or less likely. The road is already set. They reach a point where it doesn't matter.
Rook's Rest represents a point of no return. They pass the point.
Rhaenys sees "the desire to kill and burn" take hold over reason in close quarters - she sees Aemond burn his own brother. That is the kind of savagery: the unforgivable. The bloody war between dragons and the hateful act of kin against kin. It's chaos.
Rhaenyra’s council is wayward. She has a hard task. I must hope she will rise to it, but I fear she’ll need you by her side sooner than late.
After Rhaenys dies, Rhaenyra has one council session, where each of the men around her have individual ideas - they argue amongst each other but none of them have no true plan to offer her. There is no progress.
Nor does she rise to command them: they continue to ignore her, shoot her down, not work with her, leaving her isolated. As Rhaenys fears, she needs Corlys. Rhaenyra soon offers Corlys the role of Hand.
#genuinely all her moments of wisdom and guidance and even when she predicts the state of play and the future...#it all has truth ringing right through it#broadly speaking - everything she has ever said or judged has been done so correctly#it was the same in season 1 from the beginning#even if her perspectives have changed and the sate of play changes she is able to reorientate and use new context#even to the point where things are eerily precient#and i could talk about it all day#she fulfills the wise woman trope because she IS a wise woman#i could go on and on and I just wanted to put it some place#even the stuff she says about Alicent - correct#house of the dragon#rhaenys targaryen#rhaenys in s2 just casually going around predicting character arcs
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