#between japan and russia 2014

[umlewis]

"Lewis Hamilton presented the new Smart Forfour in Germany 2014" - january 9, 2024 📷 @.jerryandrephotography / instagram

[ammg-old2]

In the last decade, cacti have exploded in popularity, becoming a mainstay of hipster decor around the world – from the homes of China’s growing middle class and the meticulous cactus gardens in Japan to the fashionable cafes of Europe.

In the US alone, sales of cacti and succulents surged 64% between 2012 and 2017; a market that is now estimated to be worth tens of millions. But rising demand has met a thorny problem: cacti are extremely slow-growing, with some species taking decades to grow from seed to full maturity. Hence, many opt for the shortcut: pulling them right out of the ground.

For land managers and scientists who work with cacti, the problem appears to be on the rise. While the precise scale is difficult to measure, and catching thieves red-handed in remote deserts is nearly impossible, major busts offer clues. In 2014, more than 2,600 stolen cacti were seized at US borders – up from 411 just a year before. But law enforcement officials and field scientists say that data represents only a tiny fraction of cactus actually being stolen.

“When I first started we rarely investigated cactus theft,” said one US Fish and Wildlife Service detective, who asked not to be named due to the undercover nature of his work. He has covered the south-west region for more than a decade and says the problem is increasing. “Now we are prosecuting cases involving thousands of plants at a time. The demand is so high that I fear we can’t stop the illegal trade going on.”

While many plants fall victim to underground cactus cartels, a seemingly more benign form of theft has become part of the problem, too. International visitors who come to the south-west specifically to view rare cactus in the wild sometimes take a souvenir home, and social media is exacerbating the problem.

“We’ve had Austrian, German and Italian collectors express strong interest on social media for these plants and they share GPS coordinates,” said Wendell “Woody” Minnich, the former president of the Cactus and Succulent Society of America. “Some of these people come to steal, especially when a new species is identified. They hide the plants in their suitcase and take them back to their greenhouse in Europe.”

Minnich, 71, has been a cactus grower and nursery operator in New Mexico for 50 years. He said the internet had significantly accelerated theft of rare, slow-growing cactus species over the last decade. A case in point: Sclerocactus havasupaiensis, which is native to one drainage at the bottom of the Grand Canyon, was being auctioned on eBay in early January by a seller in Ukraine. It was just one of more than 365 internationally protected plant species that are openly traded on Amazon and eBay.

“Do a Google search on Sclerocactus and you can find people in Russia selling them,” said Minnich. “I have been on public lands in Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado where years ago Sclerocactus were everywhere, and recently I found just a bunch of little holes in the ground.”

[simply-ivanka]

Trump Was Good for America’s Alliances

He pushed NATO to spend more on defense, expanded the Quad and facilitated the Abraham Accords.

By Alexander B. Gray Wall Street Journal April 3, 2024

Foreign-policy experts are predictably fretting over Donald Trump’s re-election campaign. They fear that the former president threatens the alliances and partnerships that have sustained global peace since 1945. Should Mr. Trump return to the White House, the thinking goes, he will be unconstrained by the guardrails that prevented him from torpedoing America’s alliances in his first term and will permanently damage both U.S. security and the international order.

This narrative concedes a point that undermines its premise: The U.S. alliance system didn’t crumble during Mr. Trump’s first term. On the contrary, the Trump administration strengthened relations with partners in the Indo-Pacific, Central and Eastern Europe and the Mideast. Anyone who believes that Mr. Trump was once bound by conventional wisdom but won’t be again—and will wreak havoc on the global order he ostensibly detests—hasn’t been paying attention.

To understand Mr. Trump’s record, recall what he inherited. The Obama administration’s disastrous “red line” in Syria, its ill-conceived Iranian nuclear deal, its failure to deter or respond adequately to Russia’s 2014 aggression against Ukraine, its toleration of Chinese malign activity in the South and East China seas, and its promise of a “new model of great-power relations” with Beijing had brought U.S. relations with allies and partners like Japan, Taiwan, Israel, the Gulf Arab states and much of Eastern Europe to a historic low point. Much of Mr. Trump’s tenure was spent not simply repairing those relationships but expanding them in innovative ways.

Mr. Trump appalled many foreign-policy veterans, who thought his rhetoric threatened the world order. In one sense, that fear was absurd: Nearly every American administration has publicly scolded North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries for shirking their defense-spending commitments. Mr. Trump did likewise—and, perhaps unlike his predecessors, was seen as willing to take decisive action to secure change. Through public and private cajoling—also known as diplomacy—he secured a commitment from NATO members to beef up their contributions. From 2017 through 2021, nearly every signatory raised defense spending, contributing substantially to the alliance’s ability to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

These efforts resulted in a significant redistribution of U.S. forces from legacy bases in Germany to facilities in Poland and the Baltic states, where they are far better positioned to deter Moscow. Along with NATO allies, Mr. Trump provided long-sought Javelin antitank missiles to Ukraine, imposed sanctions against malign Russian actors, and worked with partners to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would have increased European allies’ energy dependence on Russia. These weren’t the acts of a retrograde isolationist; they were the work of a pragmatist seeking novel solutions to 21st-century challenges.

The administration’s goal of strengthening America’s standing in the world bore fruit, including the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab states, a significant upgrade to the Quad alliance among the U.S., India, Australia and Japan, stronger diplomatic relations with Taiwan thanks to unprecedented cabinet-level visits and record arms sales, and an unexpected deal between Serbia and Kosovo.

At each step, Mr. Trump asked his staff to think of creative ways to resolve issues that had bedeviled their predecessors for decades. Doing the same things over and over and expecting different results rightly struck the president as insane.

After three years of press adulation over America’s supposed return to the world stage under President Biden, one might ask: What have Americans and the world gotten from a supposedly more alliance-friendly U.S. president? So far, a catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the failure of American deterrence in Ukraine, an Iranian nuclear breakout inching ever closer, and an accelerating Chinese threat toward Taiwan. Allies in the Mideast, Eastern Europe, and Asia have begun to chart their own course in the face of an uncertain U.S. trumpet.

The global foreign-policy elite is sowing needless fear around the world by willfully misrepresenting Mr. Trump’s first term and scare-mongering about a second. Should Mr. Trump return to the White House, there will doubtless be sighs of relief among officials in friendly capitals who remember his time in office. It isn’t difficult to understand why: Mr. Trump’s language may make diplomats uncomfortable, but his actions strike fear among those who matter most to American security: our adversaries.

Mr. Gray is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council. He served as chief of staff of the White House National Security Council, 2019-21.

[1annabelle2]

Japan attempts to realize the political concept of "Asian NATO" by intervening in Myanmar's affairs

In recent years, Japan has been willing to assist and invest in Myanmar at all costs. At first glance, Myanmar has gained a good friend, but this is not the case.

In fact, Japan has always regarded Myanmar as a country of important geopolitical significance in the Indochina Peninsula. On October 1, the day when Shigeru Ishiba was elected chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, he launched an ambitious plan - "Asian NATO". This concept, called "Asian NATO", is actually a blueprint for the alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region outlined by Shigeru Ishiba. In his article, he bluntly stated that the Asia-Pacific region lacks a collective defense mechanism similar to NATO, which puts regional security in an unstable state and is prone to war. Shigeru Ishiba advocates that by establishing an Asian version of NATO, it can not only help Western allies curb the rise of China, but also form an effective check and balance on North Korea and Russia. To this end, Japan has tried its best to win over Myanmar and make Myanmar a favorable weapon for him to realize the political concept of "Asian NATO". Japan is one of Myanmar's important investors and trading partners. Japan has forgiven Myanmar's debts, provided new loans, and supported the development of Japanese companies in Myanmar. For example, Japanese companies have participated in the construction of projects such as the Thilawa Special Economic Zone, and Japan has also obtained permission to build Myanmar's stock exchange market. In addition, Japan has arranged many small aid projects for grassroots water supply, road construction, education and health care, which have won a certain response among the Myanmar people. Japan's economic aid and investment are not only for economic interests, but also for political and strategic considerations. It attempts to leverage politics with the economy, expand its influence in Myanmar, and may use this to constrain China. Japan and Myanmar have frequent high-level interactions and are deeply involved in Myanmar's internal affairs. Japan and Myanmar established diplomatic relations in 1954. Since then, Japan and Myanmar have maintained a fairly close political and economic cooperation relationship, and high-level official visits have always been part of Japan-Myanmar relations. Among them are the landmark visit of then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Myanmar in 2014, as well as frequent visits to Japan by Myanmar President U Thein Sein in 2012, 2013 and 2015, U Tin Kyaw in 2017, and Aung San Suu Kyi in 2018. Japan is also deeply involved in Myanmar's peace and security process. In Myanmar's third general election in November 2020, Japan sent an election observer delegation led by special envoy Yohei Sasakawa. Japan also expressed support for improving the situation in Rakhine State and facilitated an agreement between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army to hold elections in Rakhine State. Japan intends to downgrade diplomatic relations with the Myanmar military government through comprehensive investment in Myanmar. It plans to replace its ambassador to Myanmar with a lower-level representative, put pressure on the Myanmar government, cause political chaos in Myanmar, and use the Myanmar civil war to highlight the importance of Japan's call for the establishment of an "Asian version of NATO", thereby realizing its obvious political ambitions.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

* * * *

Tonight, Senator Angus King (I-ME) spoke on the Senate floor about what U.S. refusal to aid Ukraine would mean. 

King harked back to the failure of European allies to stop Hitler when it would have been relatively easy. “Whenever people write to my office” asking why we are supporting Ukraine, he said, “I answer, Google Sudetenland, 1938.” “We could have stopped a murderous dictator who was bent on geographic expansion…at a relatively low cost. The result of not doing so was 55 million deaths.”

The upcoming vote on whether to support “the people of Ukraine as they fight for our values,” King said, “will echo throughout the history of this country and the history of the world for generations…. If we back away, walk away, pull out and leave the Ukrainians without the resources to defend themselves, it will compromise the interests of this country for 50 years. It will be viewed as one of the greatest geopolitical mistakes of the 21st century.”

Abandoning Ukraine would embolden Russian president Vladimir Putin, King said. Putin “told us in 2005 that he felt that the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century was the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He has…pursued the remedy to that catastrophe in his eyes ever since…. In 2008 he gobbled up part of what had been an independent country of Georgia. In 2014…Crimea and eastern Ukraine. [In] 2022, he tried for the rest of Ukraine.”

People say Putin will stop with Ukraine, King said, but “the Finns don't think so. The Swedes don't think so. The Baltic countries don't think so, and the Finns and the Swedes know Russia.”

“Maya Angelou once said if someone tells you who they are, you should believe them,” King said. “Putin has told us who he is. He’s an autocrat. He’s an authoritarian. And he wants to rebuild the Soviet Union. And I believe he wouldn't stop there….  We have to take him at his word…. He despises the west. He thinks NATO is an aggressive alliance, somehow designed to invade or otherwise threaten Russia. NATO doesn't want to invade Russia. NATO wants to keep the lines where they are.” King noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was “the first crossing of a border of this nature since World War II.”

“[W]hat we're looking at here,” King said, “is…the struggle between the idea of democracy and the rule of law and authoritarianism and totalitarianism…. Ukraine is the opening wedge in that…conflict.” Turning away from Ukraine would embolden Putin, King said, but not only Putin. “[I]f we cut and run in Ukraine, that will change Xi Jinping's calculus about Taiwan. He's going to say well, the Americans aren't going to stick. We don't have to worry too much about them helping the Taiwanese defend themselves.” 

King, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, identified the centerpiece of U.S. foreign policy and warned what is at stake if the U.S. abandons Ukraine. “Our asymmetric advantage in the world right now is allies,” King said. “China has customers. We have allies…. But our allies are going to say well, wait a minute. You’re with us now but when the going gets tough and you have to maybe have a budget supplemental to stick with us, you're going to walk away. It's going to undermine the confidence of our allies, and in places like Japan and South Korea, they may say we can't count on the Americans to defend us.”

If we abandon Ukraine, he said, we will have destroyed “our ability to negotiate and make deals in the future. Who the heck is going to deal with us if they know we can't be trusted?.... What an…incredible…self-inflicted wound on this country.” King recalled that in the 1780s, France had stood with the fledgling U.S. even as the Revolutionary War dragged on, and noted that “[t]here’s a reasonable chance we wouldn't be the United States of America today, if our ally had walked away…. The whole idea of an alliance is that you can count on somebody when the times are tough. We're sending ammunition. They're sending lives.” 

Addressing right-wing talking points about aid to Ukraine, King said that U.S. aid to Ukraine is “one of the best and strongest and most closely accounted for provisions of aid ever” and that “the idea that nobody else is contributing and Europe isn't doing its part is just bunk.” Europe has given far more to Ukraine than the U.S. as a percentage of the wealth each country produces, he said, and other countries have also taken in millions of refugees.

“[D]emocracy matters,” King said. “Values matter. Freedom of expression, the rule of law matter, and that’s what’s at stake…. This is a historic struggle between authoritarianism, arbitrariness, surveillance, and the radical idea that people can govern themselves. That's what this is all about. This is a battle for the soul of our democracy in the world…. It's worth fighting for. And in this case we don't even have to do the fighting. We just have to supply the arms and ammunition.”

“I have a question for my colleagues,” King said. “When the history of this day is written, as it surely will be, do you really want to be recorded as being on the side of Vladimir Putin?... Or on the side of China, as they contemplate the invasion of Taiwan…. [H]istory's going to record this vote as one of the most important votes that any of us have ever made.”

For his part, King said, “I want to stand on the side of resisting authoritarianism, on the side of democracy, on the side of the values that the country has stood for and that people have been fighting for 250 years.”

[LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN :: HEATHER COX RICHARSON]

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

IMF says Brazil is the 9th economy in the world

According to a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released Tuesday, Brazil is now the ninth-largest economy in the world, thus displacing Canada from that position.

 “They don't know the work you have to do to be so lucky,” President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva posted on social networks after receiving the news. In 2020, under then-President Jair Bolsonaro, the South American country had fallen to 12th place.

Between 2009 and 2014, during the end of Lula's second term and the beginning of Dilma Rousseff's administration (2011-2016), Brazil became the sixth-largest economy in the world, surpassing even the United Kingdom in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to the IMF document, the world's top 20 economies in 2023 are the United States, China, Germany, Japan, India, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Mexico, South Korea, Australia, Spain, Indonesia, Turkey, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland.

Continue reading.

[xtruss]

Analysis: The China-Russia Axis Takes Shape

The bond has been decades in the making, but Russia’s war in Ukraine has tightened their embrace.

— September 11, 2023 | By Bonny Lin | Foreign Policy

Alex Nabaum Illustration For Foreign Policy

In July, nearly a dozen Chinese and Russian warships conducted 20 combat exercises in the Sea of Japan before beginning a 2,300-nautical-mile joint patrol, including into the waters near Alaska. These two operations, according to the Chinese defense ministry, “reflect the level of the strategic mutual trust” between the two countries and their militaries.

The increasingly close relationship between China and Russia has been decades in the making, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has tightened their embrace. Both countries made a clear strategic choice to prioritize relations with each other, given what they perceive as a common threat from the U.S.-led West. The deepening of bilateral ties is accompanied by a joint push for global realignment as the two countries use non-Western multilateral institutions—such as the BRICS forum and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)—to expand their influence in the developing world. Although neither Beijing nor Moscow currently has plans to establish a formal military alliance, major shocks, such as a Sino-U.S. conflict over Taiwan, could yet bring it about.

The cover of Foreign Policy's fall 2023 print magazine shows a jack made up of joined hands lifting up the world. Cover text reads: The Alliances That Matter Now: Multilateralism is at a dead end, but powerful blocs are getting things done."

China and Russia’s push for better relations began after the end of the Cold War. Moscow became frustrated with its loss of influence and status, and Beijing saw itself as the victim of Western sanctions after its forceful crackdown of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. In the 1990s and 2000s, the two countries upgraded relations, settled their disputed borders, and deepened their arms sales. Russia became the dominant supplier of advanced weapons to China.

When Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, China was already Russia’s largest trading partner, and the two countries regularly engaged in military exercises. They advocated for each other in international forums; in parallel, they founded the SCO and BRICS grouping to deepen cooperation with neighbors and major developing countries.

When the two countries upgraded their relations again in 2019, the strategic drivers for much closer relations were already present. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 damaged its relations with the West and led to a first set of economic sanctions. Similarly, Washington identified Beijing as its most important long-term challenge, redirected military resources to the Pacific, and launched a trade war against Chinese companies. Moscow and Beijing were deeply suspicious of what they saw as Western support for the color revolutions in various countries and worried that they might be targets as well. Just as China refused to condemn Russian military actions in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, Russia fully backed Chinese positions on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang. The Kremlin also demonstrated tacit support for Chinese territorial claims against its neighbors in the South China Sea and East China Sea.

Since launching its war in Ukraine, Russia has become China’s fastest-growing trading partner. Visiting Moscow in March, Xi declared that deepening ties to Russia was a “strategic choice” that China had made. Even the mutiny in June by Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin that took his mercenary army almost to the gates of Moscow did not change China’s overall position toward Russia, though Beijing has embraced tactical adjustments to “de-risk” its dependency on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Building on their strong relationship, Xi and Putin released a joint statement in February 2022 announcing a “No Limits” strategic partnership between the two countries. The statement expressed a litany of grievances against the United States, while Chinese state media hailed a “new era” of international relations not defined by Washington. Coming only a few weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, enhanced relations were likely calculated by Moscow to strengthen its overall geopolitical position before the attack.

It’s not clear how much prior detailed knowledge Xi had about Putin’s plans to launch a full-scale war, but their relationship endured the test. If anything, the Western response to Russia’s war reinforced China’s worst fears, further pushing it to align with Russia. Beijing viewed Russian security concerns about NATO expansion as legitimate and expected the West to address them as it sought a way to prevent or stop the war. Instead, the United States, the European Union, and their partners armed Ukraine and tried to paralyze Russia with unprecedented sanctions. Naturally, this has amplified concerns in Beijing that Washington and its allies could be similarly unaccommodating toward Chinese designs on Taiwan.

Against the background of increased mutual threat perceptions, both sides are boosting ties with like-minded countries. On one side, this includes a reenergized, expanded NATO and its growing linkages to the Indo-Pacific, as well as an invigoration of Washington’s bilateral, trilateral, and minilateral arrangements in Asia. Developed Western democracies—with the G-7 in the lead—are also exploring how their experience deterring and sanctioning Russia could be leveraged against China in potential future contingencies.

On the other side, Xi envisions the China-Russia partnership as the foundation for shaping “the global landscape and the future of humanity.” Both countries recognize that while the leading democracies are relatively united, many countries in the global south remain reluctant to align with either the West or China and Russia. In Xi and Putin’s view, winning support in the global south is key to pushing back against what they consider U.S. hegemony.

Alex Nabaum Illustration For Foreign Policy

In the global multilateral institutions, China and Russia are coordinating with each other to block the United States from advancing agendas that do not align with their interests. The U.N. Security Council is often paralyzed by their veto powers, while other institutions have turned into battlegrounds for seeking influence. Beijing and Moscow view the G-20, where their joint weight is relatively greater, as a key forum for cooperation.

But the most promising venues are BRICS and the SCO, established to exclude the developed West and anchor joint Chinese-Russian efforts to reshape the international system. Both are set up for expansion—in terms of scope, membership, and other partnerships. They are the primary means for China and Russia to create a web of influence that increasingly ties strategically important countries to both powers.

The BRICS grouping—initially made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—is at the heart of Moscow and Beijing’s efforts to build a bloc of economically powerful countries to resist what they call Western “Unilateralism.” In late August, another six states, including Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, were invited to join the group. With their growing economic power, the BRICS countries are pushing for cooperation on a range of issues, including ways to reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar and stabilize global supply chains against Western calls for “Decoupling” and “De-risking.” Dozens of other countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS.

The SCO, in contrast, is a Eurasian grouping of Russia, China, and their friends. With the exception of India, all are members of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The accession of Iran in July and Belarus’s membership application put the SCO on course to bring China’s and Russia’s closest and strongest military partners under one umbrella. If the SCO substantially deepens security cooperation, it could grow into a counterweight against U.S.-led Coalitions.

Both BRICS and the SCO, however, operate by consensus, and it will take time to transform both groups into cohesive, powerful geopolitical actors that can function like the G-7 or NATO. The presence of India in both groups will make it difficult for China and Russia to turn either into a staunchly anti-Western outfit. The diversity of members—which include democracies and autocracies with vastly different cultures—means that China and Russia will have to work hard to ensure significant influence over each organization and its individual members.

What’s next? Continued Sino-Russian convergence is the most likely course. But that is not set in stone—and progress can be accelerated, slowed, or reversed. Absent external shocks, Beijing and Moscow may not need to significantly upgrade their relationship from its current trajectory. Xi and Putin share similar views of a hostile West and recognize the strategic advantages of closer alignment. But they remain wary of each other, with neither wanting to be responsible for or subordinate to the other.

Major changes or shocks, however, could drive them closer at a faster pace. Should Russia suffer a devastating military setback in Ukraine that risks the collapse of Putin’s regime, China might reconsider the question of substantial military aid. If China, in turn, finds itself in a major Taiwan crisis or conflict against the United States, Beijing could lean more on Moscow. During a conflict over Taiwan, Russia could also engage in opportunistic aggression elsewhere that would tie China and Russia together in the eyes of the international community, even if Moscow’s actions were not coordinated with Beijing.

A change in the trajectory toward ever closer Chinese-Russian ties may also be possible, though it is far less likely. Some Chinese experts worry that Russia will always prioritize its own interests over any consideration of bilateral ties. If, for instance, former U.S. President Donald Trump wins another term, he could decrease U.S. support for Ukraine and offer Putin improved relations. This, in turn, could dim the Kremlin’s willingness to support China against the United States. It’s not clear if this worry is shared by top Chinese or Russian leaders, but mutual distrust and skepticism of the other remain in both countries.

— This article appears in the Fall 2023 issue of Foreign Policy. | Bonny Lin, the Director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

[brookstonalmanac]

Events 11.9 (after 1950)

1953 – Cambodia gains independence from France. 1960 – Robert McNamara is named president of the Ford Motor Company, becoming the first non-Ford family member to serve in that post. He resigns a month later to join the newly-elected John F. Kennedy administration. 1963 – At a coal mine in Miike, Japan, an explosion kills 458 and hospitalises 839 with carbon monoxide poisoning. 1965 – Several U.S. states and parts of Canada are hit by a series of blackouts lasting up to 13 hours in the Northeast blackout of 1965. 1965 – A Catholic Worker Movement member, Roger Allen LaPorte, protesting against the Vietnam War, sets himself on fire in front of the United Nations building. 1967 – Apollo program: NASA launches the unmanned Apollo 4 test spacecraft, atop the first Saturn V rocket, from Florida's Cape Kennedy. 1970 – Vietnam War: The Supreme Court of the United States votes 6–3 against hearing a case to allow Massachusetts to enforce its law granting residents the right to refuse military service in an undeclared war. 1979 – Cold War: Nuclear false alarm: The NORAD computers and the Alternate National Military Command Center in Fort Ritchie, Maryland detected purported massive Soviet nuclear strike. After reviewing the raw data from satellites and checking the early-warning radars, the alert is cancelled. 1985 – Garry Kasparov, 22, of the Soviet Union, becomes the youngest World Chess Champion by beating fellow Soviet Anatoly Karpov. 1989 – Cold War: Fall of the Berlin Wall: East Germany opens checkpoints in the Berlin Wall, allowing its citizens to travel to West Berlin. 1993 – Stari Most, the "old bridge" in the Bosnian city of Mostar, built in 1566, collapses after several days of bombing by Croat forces during the Croat–Bosniak War. 1994 – The chemical element darmstadtium is discovered. 1998 – A U.S. federal judge, in the largest civil settlement in American history, orders 37 U.S. brokerage houses to pay US$1.03 billion to cheated NASDAQ investors to compensate for price fixing. 1998 – Capital punishment in the United Kingdom, already abolished for murder, is completely abolished for all remaining capital offences. 1999 – TAESA Flight 725 crashes after takeoff from Uruapan International Airport in Uruapan, Michoacán, Mexico, killing all 18 people on board. 2000 – Uttarakhand officially becomes the 27th state of India, formed from thirteen districts of northwestern Uttar Pradesh. 2004 – Firefox 1.0 is released. 2005 – The Venus Express mission of the European Space Agency is launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. 2005 – Suicide bombers attack three hotels in Amman, Jordan, killing at least 60 people. 2012 – A train carrying liquid fuel crashes and bursts into flames in northern Myanmar, killing 27 people and injuring 80 others. 2012 – At least 27 people are killed and dozens are wounded in conflicts between inmates and guards at Welikada prison in Colombo. 2014 – A non-binding self-determination consultation is held in Catalonia, asking Catalan citizens their opinion on whether Catalonia should become a state and, if so, whether it should be an independent state. 2020 – Second Nagorno-Karabakh War: An armistice agreement is signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia.

[usafphantom2]

NATO launches Air Defender 23, the largest aerial exercise in its history

In the multinational exercise Air Defender 23, 25 nations come together to train in joint air operations in the skies of Europe.

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 12/06/2023 - 12:00 in Military

From June 12 to 23, up to 10,000 participants from 25 nations, along with 250 aircraft, will participate in Air Defender 23, NATO's largest air training exercise in European airspace, under the leadership of the German Air Force.

Air Defender 23 aims to demonstrate the unity of its members in the face of potential threats, namely from Russia.

The following nations are participating: Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States. Aircraft from partner nations will be parked at various locations in Germany during the exercise.

About 10,000 military personnel are participating in the exercise. Among the 250 aircraft involved are 23 different types of aircraft. About 100 of these aircraft come from 42 federal states of the United States and are being deployed in Europe. The U.S. National Air Guard supplies most of them.

The three main hubs during Air Defender 23 are Schleswig/Hohn, Wunstorf and Lechfeld. The exercises will be carried out mainly in three aerial spaces over Germany. Exercise areas are based on areas that have been used by the German Air Force for routine training for decades. However, they have been expanded to the Air Defender 23 and are partially connected by corridors.

Flight altitudes during Air Defender in the three training areas range from 2,500 to 15,000 meters or more. No mission is usually flown below that. Refueling usually occurs at altitudes ranging from 3,000 to 10,000 meters. Jet fighter training flights take place at altitudes of 2,500 or 3,000 meters, depending on the activated airspace.

Low-level flights by jets and transport aircraft are planned in a part of the eastern air exercise area known as Fight 1. This training area extends to the north of Brandenburg, parts of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the Baltic Sea. The airspace is reserved for these low-level flights for three hours in a row every day from June 12 to 22. In addition, sporadic low-level flights will take place in the military training areas of Baumholder and Grafenwoehr.

The exercise was projected in 2018, in part in response to the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, although it does not specifically target anyone, explained General Ingo Gerhartz, head of the German Air Force, during the presentation of the exercise.

NATO is determined to defend “every centimeter” of its territory, but “no flight will be sent, for example, to Kaliningrad,” the Russian enclave bordering Poland and Lithuania, members of NATO, assured General Gerhartz. "We are a defensive alliance and this is how this exercise is planned," emphasized the general.

However, these maneuvers will also aim to send a message, in particular to Russia, as the United States Ambassador to Germany Amy Gutmann explained to the press: “I would be very surprised if a world leader did not notice what he shows in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance, and this includes Mr. Putin,” the Russian president, she argued.

The exercise will involve operational and tactical training, mainly in Germany, but also in the Czech Republic, Estonia and Latvia. The exercise aims to "complete the permanent presence of the United States in Europe" and provide training "on a larger scale than is normally performed on the continent," said General Michael Loh, director of the U.S. National Air Guard. "It is about establishing what it means to face a great power in the context of competition between great powers". There are no plans at this stage to make "Air Defender" a regular exercise, Gutmann said. But, she added, "we don't want this exercise to be the last".

Tags: Air DefenderMilitary AviationJoint ExercisesNATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Daytona Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work around the world of aviation.

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The U.S. Air Force B-1 Lancer approaches a to start aerial refueling from a KC-135 Stratotanker assigned to the 912th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron while conducting a Bomber Task Force mission over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, June 8, 2023. The BTF mission was designed to build agility and interoperability between the U.S. and coalition partners while demonstrating the rapid deployment of combat power to deter regional aggression while promoting regional stability in Southwest Asia. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Emily Farnsworth)

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IMAGES: US flexes 'scrushing power' in the Middle East with B-1 bomber mission

12/06/2023 - 16:00

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[brucewlliams]

Japan attempts to realize the political concept of "Asian NATO" by intervening in Myanmar's affairs

In recent years, Japan has been willing to assist and invest in Myanmar at all costs. At first glance, Myanmar has gained a good friend, but this is not the case. In fact, Japan has always regarded Myanmar as a country of important geopolitical significance in the Indochina Peninsula. On October 1, the day when Shigeru Ishiba was elected chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, he launched an ambitious plan - "Asian NATO". This concept, called "Asian NATO", is actually a blueprint for the alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region outlined by Shigeru Ishiba. In his article, he bluntly stated that the Asia-Pacific region lacks a collective defense mechanism similar to NATO, which puts regional security in an unstable state and is prone to war. Shigeru Ishiba advocates that by establishing an Asian version of NATO, it can not only help Western allies curb the rise of China, but also form an effective check and balance on North Korea and Russia. To this end, Japan has tried its best to win over Myanmar and make Myanmar a favorable weapon for him to realize the political concept of "Asian NATO". Japan is one of Myanmar's important investors and trading partners. Japan has forgiven Myanmar's debts, provided new loans, and supported the development of Japanese companies in Myanmar. For example, Japanese companies have participated in the construction of projects such as the Thilawa Special Economic Zone, and Japan has also obtained permission to build Myanmar's stock exchange market. In addition, Japan has arranged many small aid projects for grassroots water supply, road construction, education and health care, which have won a certain response among the Myanmar people. Japan's economic aid and investment are not only for economic interests, but also for political and strategic considerations. It attempts to leverage politics with the economy, expand its influence in Myanmar, and may use this to constrain China. Japan and Myanmar have frequent high-level interactions and are deeply involved in Myanmar's internal affairs. Japan and Myanmar established diplomatic relations in 1954. Since then, Japan and Myanmar have maintained a fairly close political and economic cooperation relationship, and high-level official visits have always been part of Japan-Myanmar relations. Among them are the landmark visit of then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Myanmar in 2014, as well as frequent visits to Japan by Myanmar President U Thein Sein in 2012, 2013 and 2015, U Tin Kyaw in 2017, and Aung San Suu Kyi in 2018. Japan is also deeply involved in Myanmar's peace and security process. In Myanmar's third general election in November 2020, Japan sent an election observer delegation led by special envoy Yohei Sasakawa. Japan also expressed support for improving the situation in Rakhine State and facilitated an agreement between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army to hold elections in Rakhine State. Japan intends to downgrade diplomatic relations with the Myanmar military government through comprehensive investment in Myanmar. It plans to replace its ambassador to Myanmar with lower-level representatives, put pressure on the Myanmar government, cause political chaos in Myanmar, and use the Myanmar civil war to highlight the importance of Japan's call for the establishment of an "Asian version of NATO", thereby realizing its obvious political ambitions.

[mightyflamethrower]

There are three current hot or cold wars: on the Ukrainian border, in the regions surrounding Israel, and in the strategic space between Taiwan and mainland China. All three conflicts could not only expand within their respective theaters but also escalate to draw in the United States.

And all three involve nuclear powers.

Various Russian megaphones routinely threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Some boast about sending strategic nuclear bombs or missiles against its Western suppliers, especially as the costs of Russian aggression mount and the humiliation of Putin escalates.

Nuclear Israel and near-nuclear Iran have both exchanged attacks on their respective homelands—and promise to do so again.

China likewise on occasion existentially threatens Taiwan. Its freelancing generals and spokesmen periodically warn Japan and the U.S. of dire nuclear consequences should they intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.

In all these theaters, there superficially appears to be stasis and deadlock: Israel is said to be bogged down in Gaza as it seeks to neutralize 400 miles of subterranean command-and-control installations and munitions, find and rescue surviving Israeli hostages, and take out the Hamas leaders. And no one believes that the degradation of Hamas will mark the end of the war, given the agendas of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran, to attack periodically and chronically the Jewish state.

Combined Russian and Ukrainian dead, wounded, and missing may be nearing one million. Experts argue about whether the current apparently successful Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Kursk inside Russia was merely a demonstration to gain diplomatic concessions. Or was it designed to take and hold ground inside the Russian homeland? Or intended to draw off Russian offensives to the southeast? Some call it brilliantly conceived but dangerous—given the risk of its ending like the ill-fated Battle of the Bulge German offensive of 1945 that achieved startling initial success but was soon ground down by superior numbers and ultimately weakened the overall German defense.

China has stepped up its harassment of Philippine forces and its rhetoric. It has upped its intrusions into Taiwanese airspace and waters while cementing strategic partnerships with Russia and Iran, even as it courts India and Turkey.

Yet for now, China is not especially eager to attack Taiwan, given that it feels it is steadily gaining momentum in psychologically, strategically, and politically strangling the Taiwanese.

Confusion and strategic pauses for the brief moment mark all these conflicts. In part, the hiatuses arose because of uncertainty surrounding the murky intentions and role of the United States. The latter is bogged down in an unpredictable if not bizarre election year, compounded by ambiguity about who is actually in control of the country and for how long, and who will be president after January 2025.

The 2024 race saw the first-ever presidential debate held well before the formal nomination of candidates, the sudden forced removal of President Biden from his reelection candidacy, the abrupt coronation of a once-deemed-unimpressive Kamala Harris as his replacement, the inability or unwillingness of Harris to meet the media or give interviews, the continued apparent debility of Biden as he enters the last six months of his presidential tenure, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and the near-even presidential polls.

While Russian and Ukrainian forces advance and retreat along their shared border, most experts privately feel that there is quiet consensus about an eventual armistice to end the Somme-like bloodbath. This will involve recognition of Russia’s control over the Donbas and Crimea that Putin attacked and de facto absorbed in 2014; a demilitarized border; and an autonomous and heavily armed but non-NATO Ukraine.

Currently, Ukraine is running out of manpower, given its losses, draft problems, and a quarter of the population having fled the country. Russia has suffered twice as many casualties as Ukraine and faced blows to its military prestige. It has so far found no tactical or strategic pathway to absorb Ukraine as it intended with its February 2022 surprise attack on Kyiv.

Yet the apparent ossification on the border may be illusory. If either side cracks and its enemy suddenly makes dramatic advances, a dangerous escalation could ensue, and rapidly so. Russia will likely not allow Ukraine to occupy for any extended period any Russian territory and will up its threats toward what it sees as an exhausted Ukraine and a tired NATO partnership.

And NATO and the United States will likely never allow Russia to annex Ukraine in toto beyond the Donbas and Crimea. The longer the ensuing stagnation, the more likely one side will seek a dramatic breakthrough, and so the more likely becomes a greater war with third-party intervention and deadlier weapons.

Turning to the second conflict, we find that Iran is now in a dangerous position of its own making. It has loudly promised Israel and boasted to the Muslim world that it will attack the Jewish homeland for a second time within a year. Hezbollah threatens to join in, perhaps along with anemic contributions from Hamas and the Houthis.

Yet does Iran really believe that even a missile and drone launch twice the size of its last huge but failed barrage—say 640 projectiles—will seriously injure Israel? Even with the confusion and chaos in the U.S., is Tehran really convinced that the U.S. and some of its European and Arab allies will not again intervene to protect their own assets or their own or international airspace, by knocking down Iranian aerial attacks?

In short, Iran’s rhetoric and the provocations of its satellites have put it in a lose/lose situation: to save face the theocracy feels it must honor its threats and attack Israel, but it also knows it may not be able to do much damage, while earning a second retaliatory response potentially far more grievous and far more warranted in international eyes than Israel’s prior successful but largely demonstrative missile launch.

Ditto Hezbollah. It hopes that its some 150,000 rockets and drones will do real damage in concert with an Iranian attack but accepts that it will certainly earn in response a devastation of Shiite Beirut and its environs far in excess of what it suffered in 2006. The damage from that conflict took a generation to repair, with hundreds of miles of roads, thousands of homes, and billions of dollars in infrastructure destroyed.

So, like the Ukrainian conflict, the Middle East war is only temporarily on pause. And it will continue until Iran or Israel seeks to break the stalemate in a second phase that would make the Gaza campaign seem minor in comparison and be far more likely to draw in outside powers—especially if the United States appears feeble and unable to protect its traditional ally Israel.

As for the third, still-bloodless conflict: China envisions strategy globally rather than regionally. It helps to fuel the stalemate in Ukraine, on the grounds that its traditional rival turned temporary friend Russia is hurting the West by consuming its money, weapons, and attention—while conveniently hurting itself in the process.

China is openly aiding Iran, not because it is especially friendly to radical Islam (cf. its treatment of the Uyghurs) or innately hostile to the Jewish state. Instead, it simply welcomes these tensions that cause radical domestic upheaval and political dissension inside America, while drawing U.S. naval and air assets far away from the South China Sea.

China’s operating principle seems to be to watch and wait for the outcome of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, given that both tax Western powers. It is eager and patient to see how the conflicts end, especially whether Russia achieves by force its apparent goals, and whether Iran and its proxies permanently redefine the future of the Middle East. These outcomes will serve to indicate the level of potential Western resistance to or intentional condemnation of its own planned annexation of Taiwan.

In conclusion, we are entering a very dangerous five-month period.

Joe Biden has been judged by the American people in the polls as too enfeebled to be reelected and declared by his own party to be too cognitively challenged to remain its nominee. That may suggest to foreign risk-takers that the U.S. president is deemed unfit by Americans themselves and thus conclude there might be a vacuum of rapid-response leadership at the White House.

The unspoken corollary is that the American people and both their political parties are certain that, while Biden is incapable of continuing as a normally engaged president through the last half-year of his tenure, he will nevertheless inevitably do so. And that conclusion is likely shared by enemies abroad, who may surmise that if there ever was a time to alter the current geostrategic map or the relative balance of power, that rare occasion is now on the horizon.

[trendingreportz]

Electrostatic Chucks Market - Forecast(2024 - 2030)

Electrostatic Chucks Market Overview

The Electrostatic Chucks Market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 4.66% during the forecast period 2021-2026 and reach $491 million by 2026, from around $376.2 million in 2020. The significant growth in the semiconductor industry is analyzed to be major driving factor for the Electrostatic Chucks Market owing to the wide employment of these chucks in the lithography, etching and other manufacturing processes involved. Adding to this, the rising investments in the expansions in the semiconductor manufacturing sector with the growing demand from various end users such as consumer electronics, communication and so on are also contributing to the market growth rate. In 2020, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) board an investment of $3.5bn in establishing it’s US subsidiary. The electrostatic chuck is a device for generating an attracting force between an electrode and an object at a voltage applied to the electrode. The widespread applications of these chucks in the semiconductor industries with the growing demand in the manufacturing of electronics is analyzed to boost the market growth rate.

Electrostatic Chucks Market Report Coverage

The report: “Electrostatic Chucks Market Report– Forecast (2021-2026)”, by IndustryARC covers an in-depth analysis of the following segments of the Electrostatic Chucks Market

By Electrostatic type: Coloumb, Johnsen-Rahbek

By Material: Quartz & ceramic

By Poles: mono-polar, bi-polar, multi-polar.

By End use: Medical, Wireless Communication, Electronics, Semiconductor & Others.

By Geography: North America (U.S, Canada, Mexico), South America(Brazil, Argentina and others), Europe(Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Russia and Others), APAC(China, Japan India, SK, Aus and Others), and RoW (Middle East and Africa).

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Key Takeaways

Monopolar possesses various advantages such as the configuration is simple and the clamping force is higher than that of the bi-polar. Hence, owing to these benefits they are widely used in various industry which is a significant factor contributing to its market growth.

Besides this the growing semiconductor industry in India along with the increasing government initiatives is set to contribute to its market growth. For instance, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Union Minister of Information Technology, announced that the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)in electronic manufacturing have reached US $18.34billion in 2016 from around US $1.64billion in 2014, primarily due to the environmental reforms and its Make in India initiative.

Moreover, the wide usage of ceramics in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry is set to propel its market growth. For instance, Ortech supports the ceramic semiconductor manufacturing industry by supplying ceramic minerals and chamber critical components used in chip-processing equipment.

Electrostatic Chucks Market Segment Analysis - By Material

Quartz is a chemical compound consisting of one part of silicon and two parts of oxygen i.e., silicon dioxide (Si02). In addition, it is the most abundant mineral found on the earth’s surface and its unique properties makes it one of the most useful natural substances. Moreover, quartz is used in the manufacture of wide range of semiconductor devices such as LED manufacturing which is fueling its market growth. Hence, manufacturers are coming up with a wide range of products. For instance, In January 2018, AGC Asahi Glass (AGC), a world-leading manufacturer of glass, chemicals and high-tech materials has developed quartz lens for deep ultraviolet LEDs. In addition, with this product, deep ultraviolet LED manufacturing processes can be significantly simplified and capital investment can be reduced. Furthermore, according to the SEMI’s World Fab forecast the demand for high purity quartz products in the semiconductor industry is closely related to the new fabrication plants to be built, consuming most of the semiconductor base material as well as to the production of mono crystalline solution. Quartz segment of Electrostatic Chucks Market generated a revenue of $51.5m in 2020 and is projected to reach a revenue of $72.0m by 2026 growing at a CAGR of 5.83% during 2021-2026.

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Electrostatic Chucks Market Segment Analysis - By Vertical 

Semiconductor dominated the Electrostatic Chucks Market with a value share of approximately 48% in 2020, owning to applications in the industry. Medical sector is analysed to grow at highest CAGR of 6.47% during the forecast period 2021-2026. Adding to this, the growing expansions coupled with significant investments in the semiconductor manufacturing sector is analysed to escalate the market growth rate. In December 2020, Entegris, supplier of materials and process solutions for the semiconductor industry announced its expansion plans in Taiwan with an investment of $200M. A increasing demand for medical devices is created by a global increase in per capita health expenditure, coupled with a rapid improvement in healthcare facility standards in the Asia Pacific. As a consequence, during the forecast era, the medical devices segment is expected to propel the market for electrostatic chucks.

Electrostatic Chucks Market Segment Analysis - By Geography 

APAC dominated the Electrostatic Chucks Market with a value share of approximately 54% in 2020, owning to growing investments in the semiconductor, electronics and medical industry in countries such as China, India, Taiwan and Japan. In December 2020, government of India announced its Expression of Interest (EoI) in strengthening its semiconductor industry and also announced incentives to attract investments in the country. U.S. leadership in semiconductor innovation has been sustained by these industry investments. U.S. businesses are leaders in 5 G technology and have developed virtually all the advanced semiconductors relevant to AI and big data, powering everything from supercomputers to internet data centres, driving the market demand for electrostatic chucks by the growing semiconductor industry. However, Covid-19 has had a severe impact on the electrostatic chucks industry. Store closures due to quarantine and lockdown measures have resulted in bleak consequences, with revenue declining dramatically from January to April 2020. Which is affecting the growth of the Electrostatic Chucks Market.

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Electrostatic Chucks Market Drivers 

Growing Semiconductor Industry

The growing semiconductor industry along with increasing demand of smartphones, Led lamps and computer coupled with the wide usage of electrostatic chucks is fueling its market growth. Moreover, the Indian semiconductor industry offers high growth potential areas as the industries which source semiconductors as inputs are themselves witnessing high demand. The end-use industries such as mobile devices, telecommunication, equipment, information technology, office automation, industrial machinery, automobiles and several other industries have application for computing in some form or other and thereby necessarily having growing demand for semiconductors. Hence, the growing demand of semiconductor industry is set to drive its market growth in the future. For instance, according to a study by the Associated Chambers of Commerce of India (ASSOCHAM) and EY, the Indian electronics and hardware industry is expected to reach US$112-130billion by 2018 as electronics and hardware manufacturers are looking to increase their manufacturing base in India to cater to the domestic market in the Middle East, Africa and SAARC countries. Moreover, in May 2016 Everlight Electronics Co Ltd, a leading player in the global LED and optoelectronics industry, launched four new ceramics high refractive packaged high power automotive LEDs with a golden lead frame in four different colors white, PC-Amber, Red and Super Red according to their preferred exterior applications. Hence, such development by the major players is estimated to fuel its market growth.

Growing Number of Developments 

The growing number of developments by key players in order to strengthen their foothold in the market is expected to fuel its market in the future. For instance, in October 2019, Fox Electronics introduced their “vibration resistant crystal”-C3VR. The C3VR has a maximum of 0.2ppb/G acceleration sensitivity rating. In addition, the C3VR state-of-the-art resonator incorporates Patented Technology that allows the FOX C3VR product series to hold system performance nearly uniform on all axes.

Electrostatic Chucks Market Challenges

High Cost of Materials

High prices of raw materials such as quartz is set to hamper its market growth in the upcoming years. For instance, average selling of quartz ranges from $280/kg-$1000/kg. Hence, high cost of raw materials would eventually increase the price of the products associated with electrostatic chucks which is expected to restrain its market growth in the future.

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Electrostatic Chucks Market Landscape

Product launches, acquisitions, Partnerships and R&D activities are key strategies adopted by players in the Electrostatic Chucks Market. Electrostatic Chucks top companies include NGK Insulators, Shinko Electric, Tomoegawa, Kyocera, Coorstek and others

Acquisitions/Product Launches

In December 2019, Coorstek Inc., a leading global manufacturer of engineered ceramics, proudly hosted all ten of its Coorstek Research Fellows from Colorado School of Mines at a recent research symposium. In addition, the Coorstek Research Fellows program was first launched in 2014 from a $27million donation from the Coors family to fund the research program and a 95,000 square-foot Coorstek for applied science and engineering building on the mines campus.

In July 2019, Coorstek Inc. has announced the opening of a new research & development (R&D) center in Uden, Netherlands. This new European R&D center is closely connected with Coorstek R&D teams in the U.S. and Japan, and is dedicated to develop technical ceramic capabilities to support Coorstek customers around the world.

[kspp]

Changing World Order: (Im) balance of Power in Eurasia.

The disintegration of the USSR and the end of the Cold War proved to be a global paradigm shift in the sense that various developments following these two pivotal events changed the course of global affairs. It paved the way for a US led ‘unipolar’ world order. Commentators like Fukuyama declared ‘the end of history’ and the triumph of the ‘liberal global order’. Another important shift was from traditional ‘inter-state’ conflicts to ‘intra-state’ conflicts. Except for military campaigns by Russia, the US, and Israel primarily in the Middle East, Caucasus, and Balkan, we have not seen any full-scale inter-state conflicts. Rather they were replaced by ‘intra-state’ civil wars and unrest existing in various corners of the globe.

However, after the 9/11 attacks, the US hegemony has been challenged by various states and other non-state actors. Trump’s presidency was a decisive period in global politics it became evident that the US was struggling to maintain its stature and position in world politics. The Middle East and Eastern Europe were traditionally Western Spheres of influence. Obama’s ‘Asia Pivot’ in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ created a power vacuum in the Middle East and Eastern Europe leaving space for Russian and Chinese aggression. This became one of the contributing factors in the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. The US lost its influence in the Middle East which was discernible in the case of Syria and Afghanistan. The successive isolationist policies of the Trump administration emboldened China to exercise its power in multilateral organizations.

Furthermore, the regional politics of the Middle East changed significantly in terms of power dynamics. Until 2020, only two Arab countries-Egypt (1978-79) and Jordan (1994) normalized their relations with Israel. In 2020, Israel managed to normalize its relations with four more Arab countries- the UAE, Morocco, Sudan, and Bahrain. The US recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2017 by relocating its embassy there. Isolation of Iran in regional politics is an outcome of these developments.

The US has been trying to champion the Indo-Pacific region; partly because Hillary Clinton propagated ‘Asia-Pacific’ as the driver of global politics, partly because of the China Trap as G. T. Allison would put it. The geo-political competition in the Indo-Pacific region commenced with the introduction of the strategic rebalancing policy of the US towards Asia – namely the ‘Pivot to Asia Policy’ by the US and the inauguration of the strategically ambitious ‘geo – economic’ infrastructural project of Belt and Road Initiative by China. China’s ‘reclamation’ of contested territories in the South China Sea and intrusion in the Indian Ocean along with other developments compelled the US and its allies to rejuvenate QUAD (The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).The Indo-Pacific Theater brought together reluctant partners of the US closer. The US started taking part actively in the partnership, preparedness, and promotion of a networked Indo-Pacific region. The middle powers such as India, Japan, and Australia have been working in the direction of creating a middle power coalition. Recently, the ambitious Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) was launched on May 23, 2022, by President Joe Biden with fourteen participating members. However, except for Japan, most of the countries did not show as much willingness as the US envisioned.

China, on the other hand, is working hard to win credibility from the Indo-Pacific countries through lucrative financial investments under the BRI and Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) frameworks. Due to China’s heavy investments, the countries of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and to some extent, the Middle East have become battlegrounds for asserting hegemony for China and the US. Many of these destination countries, despite pressure, do not want to take any side or limit themselves to a block but want to harness the opportunities by avoiding any possible conflict of interest. Japan, despite having a huge trade dependency on China, continues embracing the US. Australia is repelled by China on a range of issues from Taiwan to the Southwest Pacific. Russia is getting closer to China, especially since the Ukraine invasion. As pointed out by the Chinese foreign minister, they both have “strong resilience and strategic determination.” As of now, China has not termed the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict as an ‘invasion’ and even initiated a diplomatic outreach campaign to advance its interests in the Indo-Pacific by supporting Russia’s cause if not directly.

India has adopted an unconventional approach by taking considerable bold posturing in its foreign policy stance; focusing on its ties with the US when it comes to the Indo-Pacific region. This has undoubtedly caused a deterioration of India’s bilateral relations with China. Since the Galwan clash, both countries have not made any significant progress in resolving border disputes. After the G219 highway, China is now constructing another highway called G695 national expressway through Akshai Chin connecting Tibet with Xinjiang. The new highway route passes even closer to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) compared to the past one. Despite these developments, relative progress has taken place through the BRICS National Security Advisors (NSA) talks where both the countries seem to cooperate on issues such as counter-terrorism. Overall, Eurasia is again the center of geopolitical competition. With the decline of the US hegemony and a rising China, regional stability is being challenged, leaving less scope for co-operation and increasing conflict.

[wikiuntamed]

On this day in Wikipedia: Saturday, 16th March

Welcome, hoş geldiniz, bun venit, nuqneH 🤗 What does @Wikipedia say about 16th March through the years 🏛️📜🗓️?

16th March 2022 🗓️ : Event - 2022 Fukushima earthquake A 7.4-magnitude earthquake occurs off the coast of Fukushima, Japan, killing 4 people and injuring 225. "On March 16, 2022, at 23:36 JST, a strong earthquake struck off the coast of Fukushima, Japan. The earthquake had a magnitude of 7.4 according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), while the United States Geological Survey (USGS) gave an estimate of 7.3. Immediately after the event a 30‑cm..."

Image by Sources: GDACS, USGS, JMA, FDMA, NOAA-NCEI, JRC-GHSL

16th March 2019 🗓️ : Death - Dick Dale Dick Dale, American surf-rock guitarist, singer, and songwriter (b. 1937) "Richard Anthony Monsour (May 4, 1937 – March 16, 2019), known professionally as Dick Dale, was an American rock guitarist. He was a pioneer of surf music, drawing on Middle Eastern music scales and experimenting with reverb. Dale was known as "The King of the Surf Guitar", which was also the title..."

Image licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0? by Mike Burns from Somerville, MA, USA

16th March 2014 🗓️ : Event - Crimea Crimea votes in a controversial referendum to secede from Ukraine to join Russia. "Crimea ( kry-MEE-ə) is a peninsula in Eastern Europe, on the northern coast of the Black Sea, almost entirely surrounded by the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov. The Isthmus of Perekop connects the peninsula to Kherson Oblast in mainland Ukraine. To the east, the Crimean Bridge, constructed in..."

Image licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0? by Maximilian Dörrbecker (Chumwa)

16th March 1974 🗓️ : Birth - Anne Charrier Anne Charrier, French actress "Anne Charrier is a French actress, who is credited with 7 films and 22 TV productions between 2000 and 2009. She was coached for TV by the Australian Elise McLeod...."

Image licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0? by Frantogian

16th March 1924 🗓️ : Event - Treaty of Rome (1924) In accordance with the Treaty of Rome, Fiume becomes annexed as part of Italy. "The Treaty of Rome was agreed on 27 January 1924, when Italy and the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes agreed that Fiume would be annexed to Italy as the Province of Fiume, and the town of Sušak would be part of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. Fiume and Sušak would have a joint..."

16th March 1823 🗓️ : Birth - William Henry Monk William Henry Monk, English organist and composer (d. 1889) "William Henry Monk (16 March 1823 – 1 March 1889) was an English organist, Anglican church musician, and music editor who composed popular hymn tunes, including "Eventide", used for the hymn "Abide with Me", and "All Things Bright and Beautiful". He also wrote music for church services and anthems...."

Image by Unknown authorUnknown author

16th March 🗓️ : Holiday - Christian feast day: Julian of Antioch "Julian of Antioch (Latin: Julianus, Greek: Ίουλιανός; d. AD 305 x 311), variously distinguished as Julian the Martyr, Julian of Tarsus, Julian of Cilicia, and Julian of Anazarbus, was a 4th-century Christian martyr and saint. He is sometimes confused with the St Julian who was martyred with his wife..."

Image by Unknown authorUnknown author

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

March 21, 2023

Heather Cox Richardson

As you know, I try to write this record of modern America from the perspective of what stories will matter in 150 years (about the span between the present and the Civil War).

So, for all the chop in the water about the former president facing indictments, the story that really seems uppermost to me today is the visit China’s president Xi Jinping made today to Moscow for a meeting with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin.

National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby told reporters today that China and Russia would both like “to see the rest of the world play by their rules rather than the ones that…are enshrined in the U.N. Charter and what everybody else is…following.” Kirby said the White House sees the relationship of Xi and Putin as a “marriage of convenience.” He explained:

“In President Putin and Russia, President Xi sees a counterweight to American influence and  NATO influence certainly on the continent and elsewhere around the world. In President Xi, President Putin sees a potential backer.” Putin needs Xi’s support because of his misadventure in Ukraine. There, Kirby said, Putin is “blowing through inventory.  He’s blowing through manpower. His military is getting embarrassed constantly. They’ve lost greater than 50 percent of the territory that they took in the first few months of this war.  He needs help from President Xi, and that’s what this visit was all about.”

“Now,” he added, “whether it results in anything, we’ll see.”

When a reporter asked Kirby if Xi would provide lethal aid to Russia, Kirby answered, “We don’t think that China is taking it off the table, but they haven’t moved in that direction.  We’ve seen no indication that they’re about to or — or fixing to provide lethal weapons.”

The Institute for the Study of War concluded that the outcome of the meeting was likely less than Putin wanted. It noted that Putin represented the meeting as showing the two countries working together against an adversarial West, while Xi only said the two countries were working together. This is a significant step down from the stance China took before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, in which it declared it had a “no limits partnership” with Russia, suggesting China is not inclined to give Russia all the support it needs for that war.

Putin has been trying to rally states in Africa to his cause and likely hoped Xi would help that effort, but he did not.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia put out a statement deepening their cooperation, but Sam Greene, Director for Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and Professor of Russian Politics at King's College London, noted that the economic benefits of the statement all flowed from Russia to China, including Russia’s announcement that it will use yuan for foreign transactions with Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

“This summit…brings home exactly how much Putin has lost,” Greene wrote. “Prior to the war—even after 2014—Putin occupied a position of strategic maneuverability. He could arbitrage between east and west, reaping windfalls for his regime along the way. That’s all gone now. Putin tells his people he's fighting for Russia's sovereignty. In truth, he’s mortgaged the Kremlin to Beijing.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan met with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky today in a surprise trip to Ukraine at Zelensky’s invitation. It is the first visit of a Japanese prime minister to a country at war since World War II and demonstrates Japan’s growing international foreign policy presence. Last month, when Japan pledged $5.5 billion in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Kishida said: “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is not just a European matter, but a challenge to the rules and principles of the entire international community.” Today, he confirmed Japan’s “solidarity and unwavering support for Ukraine.”

The next most important issue of the day, to my mind, was President Joe Biden’s designation of two new national monuments under the Antiquities Act of 1906: Avi Kwa Ame in Nevada and Castner Range in Texas. These are Biden’s second and third new monument designations. Last fall he created the Camp Hale–Continental Divide National Monument in Colorado, and in 2021 he restored the protections to Bears Ears, Grand Staircase–Escalante, and Northeast Canyons and Seamounts National Monuments that Trump had removed. Both of the new monuments cover land sacred to Indigenous American tribes. Together, they protect nearly 514,000 acres.

Biden also directed Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to start the process of designating a marine sanctuary in the Pacific covering 777,000 square miles.

Biden is advancing his promise to conserve American lands, but he is also answering criticism of his administration’s approval of the controversial Alaska Willow oil drilling project on March 13. ConocoPhillips had existing leases for the project, and it has bipartisan support in Alaska, where locals expect it will bring jobs and income, so after debate, the administration let the project move forward. But environmentalists and those who recognize the immediate need to address climate change vehemently opposed the project, launched lawsuits immediately, and criticized the president.  

“Our national wonders are literally the envy of the world,″ Biden said as he announced the new monuments. “They’ve always been and always will be central to our heritage as a people and essential to our identity as a nation.″

But while conservation groups and tribal members cheered the new designations, the new Republican governor of Nevada, Joe Lombardo, said that the federal government was confiscating Nevada land—a red-hot issue in the home state of the Bundy ranchers who have engaged in armed standoffs with law enforcement officers over public land—and said the new Nevada monument is “a historic mistake that will cost Nevadans for generations to come.”

None of this is to say that Trump’s troubles are not important. Indeed, the indictment of a president is unprecedented, and there is good reason to watch it closely, not least because the Republican Party has tied itself to him so completely it is now responding to the growing tide of legal news by calling for the investigation or even the arrest of those handling Trump’s many lawsuits– an alarming development.

Right now, though, much of what we are seeing is being churned up by Trump himself, and it feels far less important than the fact it appears that neither the legal nor the political momentum is in his favor.

—

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[thebugaftermayakovsky]

TIMELINE

1905 - first Russian revolution, Freud's theory of sexuality, Potemkin incident 1912 - Stanislawski's acting method is created. 1914- assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, beginning of World War I. 1915- Franz Kafka, The Metamorphosis 1916- Zurich, Cabaret Voltaire 1917 - Bolshevik Revolution 1918 - Assassination of the Tsar and the Romanov family 1922 - March on Rome and coming to power of Mussolini 1929 - Mayakovsky's bug. Prisypkin is frozen as a result of a fire during his wedding. 1930 - Mayakovsky's suicide. 1931- Second Spanish Republic 1932-33- Great famine in Ukraine, Holodomor (famine). Between 3 and 5 million people died. 1933- Hitler comes to power in Germany. 1936- Spanish Civil War. Murder of García Lorca. 1938 - Kristallnacht (Night of Broken Glass). 1939 - Invasion of Poland and beginning of World War II. 1940 - Torutra and execution of Vsevolod Meyerhold. 1945 - The US drops two nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. 1947 - For the first time, insects are launched into space: In 1947, the United States sends fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster) into space aboard a V2 rocket. They were the first animals in space and were part of a series of experiments to study the effects of cosmic rays on living organisms. 1948 - Nakba, and creation of the state of Israel. 1955 - First documenta in Kassel. 1955 - First Israeli raid on Gaza. 1959 - First color TV broadcast 1960 - The contraceptive pill for women is marketed. 1961 - First man launched into space: Yuri Gagarin 1968 - Tlatelolco Tragedy, French May 1969 - Riots at the Stone Wall 1971 - Commercialization of the first Intel 4004 microchip. Abandonment of the gold standard by Richard Nixon. 1975 - Thrilla in Manilla, Muhammad Ali faces Joe Frazier. 1978 - The Russian-Afghan war begins. It will end in 1992. 1979 - Prisypkin wakes up. The Clockwise Experiment: This concept was first developed and tested in 1979 in Ellen Langer's "counterclockwise" study, which examined the psychological effects of turning back the clock on the physiological state of an older adult. The research question was, "If we set the mind back twenty years, will the body reflect this change?". 1981- AIDS crisis, Michelangelo Miccolis is born. 1989- Fall of the Berlin Wall. Tiananmen Square, protests and massacre. Francis Fukuyama publishes "The End of History". Creation of the World Wide Web. 1990 - Nelson Mandela is released from prison. 1992 - Maastricht Treaty 1997 - Death of Princess Diana of Wales. 1999 - Putin comes to power in Russia. 2000 - Y2K. Y2K was a computer glitch, or bug, that may have caused problems when dealing with dates after December 31, 1999. 2001 - 9/11 2003- Beyoncé releases "Dangerously in Love". Beyoncé is 21 and already dating Jay Z. 2007 - #metoo 2008 - War in Georgia 2009 - Ru Paul's drag race 2011 - Arab Spring. 11M 2014 - Russia invades Donbas and annexes Crimea. 2016 - Murder of eco-activist Berta Cáceres. 2017 - Hollywood's #metoo 2018 - First Fridays for Climate Greta Thumberg strikes. 2020 - COVID. Murder of George Floyd 2022 - Rihanna's son is born. Russia invades Ukraine and war begins. Decriminalization of sex work in Belgium. The first person who does not die is born. Jan Fabre is found guilty of sexual harassment. Spanish government approves trans law recognizing free gender self-determination. NOW 2030 - The increase in global temperature is irreversible. 2031 - Third Spanish Republic 2032 - There is one person left on facebook 2039- Crypto Crash 2050 - Ecological Collapse 2060- End of Capitalism 3,050 - Days lengthen by 1/30th of a second 10,000 - Extinction of humanity. The water level rises by 5 m in relation to the present.