#because covid caused most of us to hunker down

[babybabymerrychristmas]

i think the weird narrative on tumblr that kids these days are somehow "more" cruel because they take videos of people in public is like forgetting about how we used to literally brand people for cheating on their spouses. public ridicule has ALWAYS been a part of our culture because that is how capitalism thrives and pretending like it's somehow "more" cruel to video someone having a break down in public or cyber bullying strangers etc etc are doing a LOT of revisionist fucking history. kids these days aren't more cruel and i wish you would stop spreading this narrative. its giving repackaged anti-progressiveness propaganda tbh.

[jenniferrpovey]

I won't darken your ask box again, but I've just lost whatever scrap of hope the vaccines gave me when it became clear that there was a new variant and that vaccine rollout will be so slow it's guaranteed to produce more, vaccine-resistant variants. And every public health official and pundit just talks about "hunkering down" and I can't do that anymore than I already do, and I'm sure it won't end. I just want someone in power to be honest with me that my life is over and no help is coming.

Oh hon, darken my ask box as much as you like! I have an ear and a shoulder and they’re both available to you, albeit only virtually.

In fact, I woke up in the middle of the night absolutely convinced of exactly what you’re saying. (I think I had an anxiety dream I didn’t remember). I’m fighting the same battle.

So, experts are looking into the concern with the new variants. Every expert believes the vaccines will work against them, with a worst case scenario of an efficacy drop of about 10%. Note that the vaccines we have approved have a very high efficacy, so while this sucks, it’s not the end of the world.

BioTech and Moderna are constantly testing their vaccines against every mutations that show up. To put this in perspective:

B1.1.7, which is the UK strain, has a mutation that causes 8 amino acid changes on the spike protein. That’s what’s making people panic. However, there are 1,273 amino acids in the spike protein! Coronaviruses are big viruses.

(Source: https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/do-not-publish-verify-are-current-covid-19-vaccines-effective-against-variant-strains/65-8734e2a6-a18f-49ab-b2b5-6d198da45782)

So, we have no vaccine-evading variants yet, and if you look at that, it would take a lot, a lot of mutations to the spike protein to evade the vaccine.

Experts believe the vaccines will be fully efficacious against B1.1.7.

501.V2, the South African variant (and note, these are not strains) is a little more worrying, but we will know very soon if it evades the J&J vaccine, which is being tested there. The Oxford vaccine is also in trials in South Africa.

Some experts believe that there might be a 10% or so efficacy drop against this variant, which still means the vaccines will work very well. If the J&J vaccine works well against it, then we should be able to deal with it by using that vaccine in South Africa and anywhere else that variant spreads to, for example.

(And the J&J vaccine will be better for remote areas as it’s a single dose).

(Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-new-strain-south-africa/)

So, on to your next worry, that an actual vaccine-evading variant will show up before we get everyone vaccinated.

The first piece of good news is that coronaviruses do not mutate as quickly as orthomyxoviruses (the viruses that cause influenza). Flu strains evade the vaccine all the time, which is why we don’t yet have a universal flu vaccine (one was well into development but the researchers dropped it to focus on COVID-19) and why flu vaccine efficacy varies so much from year to year.

COVID-19 mutates much more slowly. Like all coronaviruses it has an enzyme called ExoN, which proofreads its code and keeps the copies close to each other. Furthermore, the viruses target the spike protein, which is highly conserved due to already being very good at its job.

Now, vaccines do mutate, and yes, it is absolutely possible that an escape variant will evolve in the future. However, because of the proofreading, this is less likely than with most viruses. An escape variant would reduce the effectiveness of vaccines and necessitate boosters. When is this likely to happen? In, worst case, a couple of years. At which point we will probably be needing boosters anyway due to waning immunity (Pfizer’s educated guess is that their vaccine will be effective for 2 to 5 years).

Finally, on the slow roll out, honestly, it’s mostly teething problems. The pace is already starting to speed up. There are things we need to consider doing. Many dentists, for example, have volunteered to administer shots; administering a vaccine is much easier than administering local anesthesia to the mouth. There’s also been some talk of recruiting veterinarians and vet techs, as giving a shot to one species isn’t hugely different from giving it to another. But we’re working the problem.

And I know you can only hunker down so far. But again, darken my ask box *any time you want*. You are valid and I absolutely understand your fears.

[pixiedoodlein]

10 days until school and I’m no more decided than I was a week ago. I flip flop ten times day about what might be best. A is sick of hearing me talk about it. He doesn’t disagree with my risk assessment but he is sick of talking about it.

It caused an issue with his friend, a friend who is his best friend and is unvaccinated and works in a jail. Months ago we told friend he could only visit (this place is their boyhood dream) once he’s vaccinated. Friend typically believes in science and is very health conscious but his gf is a moron Trump lover and her family the same and that’s who he’s been spending all his time with since this all started. When I asked friend why he’s not vaccinated he said he’s young & healthy, didn’t trust the vaccines, would do it when they got full fda approval. Plenty of young healthy people are dead of this. Anyway then I asked ok so what if you give it to someone who isn’t and dies, people incarcerated in the jail he works in and don’t have the luxury of social distancing, and he was like eh whatever. So yes friend is an asshole, but his best friend for decades, friend has always been kind of an asshole but has many redeeming qualities too. So we said no visit. But then in July when there was no covid here and no covid where he lives and we were blissfully living our covid free lives we loosened up and said he could visit with two negative tests. But then covid got bad again and when asshole friend contacted A the other day to say he took time off in late Sept to visit, A said sorry, it’s fully fda approved now you have no excuses not to vaccinate, we’re worried about our unvaccinated kids, and as of now you can’t visit but hey maybe if you get vaccinated and the numbers look better we can reassess in a month and you can come. Friend was a total dick about it, didn’t understand our point of view at all, stressed A about it, who was in a bad mood about it for days afterward.

Then there’s the neighbors. I had a chat with the kids and a chat with the mom. I framed it as we love them so much and I know they’re careful but I think we should all be more careful while the numbers are so rising (aka only outdoor hangouts) and we are careful but I’ve heard terrifying stories from doctor friends about kids and babies getting very sick, and they have a baby who I don’t want us to make sick, and she said she agreed. The kids have been pretty good about making the adjustment from constant sleepovers to playing outside but M keeps asking me “the kids need to pee are they allowed to use the bathroom, the kids are hungry are they allowed to come inside even for one minute for a snack,” and I feel like the villain (I’ve been saying yes to pee, snacks I’ll bring out). Everyone’s been understanding but nobody is getting what I mean when I say only outdoor socializing. All the kids keep asking me when I’ll take them to town again for ice cream, “but it’s outside” (um yeah but the car’s not), asking their mom to ask me for sleepovers even though they know what the answer will be. The other day they were playing in our yard then it started raining and they were like “we can’t walk home in the rain”- I don’t want them to walk home in the rain, but again the car is indoors!- so I drove them home (but made M stay at our house). They’re not my kids so I can’t make them wear masks and it feels like now I am in the position of being the mean parent who’s psycho about covid, which in a way I am, but it would help me to stick to my guns and feel okay about sticking to them if the government policies matched the severity of the situation, ie mask mandates in public places (instead of stores posting polite recommendations), vaccine mandates, virtual learning options, etc.

Which brings me to school. After selling M hard on real school, then I sold her hard on home school. She already “did” 3rd grade last year (as much as me teaching her in my pajamas counts as doing), but this district has an earlier cut off than the city, so she’s in 3rd grade again here. Which is fine by me- her birthday is the same day as the very late nyc cut off (12/31) and I hated that she was the absolute youngest. I used to beg the school to hold her back and they’d say “but why she’s doing so well!” not understanding that I was thinking ahead to the teen years. But anyway, despite her haphazard pj’d professor, she seemed to learn a lot last year so homeschool this year could basically be unschool. She’d traipse around the forest identifying birds and trees with A and her brother, reading for pleasure, and I’d spend an hour here and there reviewing some worksheets with her so she’d be on track when she starts real school after she gets vaccinated. She was into the idea, until she found out she and one of the neighbor kids are in the same class. Now she absolutely wants to go to real school, AND ride the school bus. The school bus part makes me very nervous. While there is now a school mask mandate (but will it be enforced? what are their lunch procedures, what % of teachers are vaccinated, what % of the older kids in the same building as the little kids are vaccinated, did they actually really update their ventilation system?) and a bus mask rule, it’s a long rural route (15 min drive or 45 min bus) and I have no faith that bus windows will be open and all riders will be masked the whole time.

So just tell her she can go to school but has to be driven by a parent, right? Not so simple. I was offered a job at a (somewhat, commuting distance) nearby nonprofit- an easy low stress job in a bastion of liberalism with very very nice smart coworkers, excellent work life balance, a writing job that sounds made for me, like the job description is exactly what I would put together if I were putting together my dream job (except the pay, which is half what I was making at a fancy DC nonprofit, but high for this area, and our housing cost is half so it should be fine if A can get away from little guy long enough to bring in some money too). It’s mostly remote but approx one day a week in the office and some days there will be things I need to attend out in the community (not necessarily our community, they serve the whole region). It won’t always be the same day in the office and the office is an hour away- so on those days A would have no car to get her to and from school, since I’d need to leave before school starts and get home after it’s done. So I guess we need to buy a new car? Aside from this issue we really don’t need a second car now, were planning to get one eventually, but not until A’s business has enough projects to justify the cost.

Despite its many demands/challenges/ stressors, home school is sounding easier to me at this point (especially because she already did this grade), except she WANTS to go to school. Someone talk me out of putting some lipstick and a pantsuit on her and taking her to get vaccinated. I know, I know: the 5-11 dosage is 1/3 of the 12-adult dosage. The doctors I’ve spoken to are split on this hypothetical kamikaze mission. The doctors I’ve spoken to are also split on me and A going to a pharmacy now for booster. It’s been almost 6 months since our 2nd dose. We do not have compromised immune systems. This county has way more doses than demand and I would feel better sending M to school (bus or not) if we had our boosters and she had a first dose- moral and scientific quandaries aside- because there is A LOT of covid here now, a lot of covid everywhere now, and I feel like we are returning to regular life at the time when we should be most hunkered down.

Which brings me to the data. Per capita there are as many known cases here as in nyc, except nyc has a 50% higher vax rate, much more mask usage, better medical system. People are not getting enough tests here, there is a higher positivity rate, and so I think the actual number of cases is much higher than the reported number of cases. It seems like, friends here and in the city and in the suburbs (I just broke up with a friend in the suburbs because she professes to be a good democrat but is hosting a bonafide super spreader event and vacationing in a place with 39% positivity and a collapsed health care system), are thinking of covid as something you catch from strangers- they wear masks in stores- but aren’t careful at all around close friends and family (so many extended family gatherings, so many, cousins and grandparents and half-siblings and aunts and uncles and whoever), when this is a disease that kills via the people you love most, the ones who’d never intentionally hurt you.

[southeastasianists]

As one of the world’s top travel destinations, the impact of COVID-19 on the Indonesian island of Bali has received intense media scrutiny — and speculation. After foreign arrivals and transits were temporarily suspended on March 31, by mid-April most international media coverage had shifted from stranded tourists to those seeing out the pandemic in paradise.

Dozens of stories detailed luxury lockdowns and quiet beachfront retreats. After Sky News interviewed a British family spending their lockdown “watching the sunset and playing in a paddling pool,” Indonesians began to push back, including award-winning investigative journalist Febriana Firdaus who tweeted: “Can we just stop publishing stories on the matter of the tourist gaze? This is so wrong at many levels of journalism.”

With 235 confirmed cases, 121 recoveries, and four deaths at the beginning of May, Bali did not emerge as the coronavirus hotspot that contagious disease experts had predicted. Rather, it had one of the lowest fatality rates in Indonesia. At the same time, however, it has been widely reported that Indonesia has had one of the lowest per capita testing rates in the world, with Bali being no exception. As Indonesia’s total number of cases increased steadily — and the much-cited Reuters report of record high burials in Jakarta did the rounds — stories of Bali’s “mysterious immunity” caused consternation for Indonesian public health experts and journalists alike.

On May 12, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo praised Bali’s provincial government for its handling of the outbreak, attributing the “success” of containment efforts to the island’s 1,493 desa adat (traditional villages). From meting out “social sanctions” like push-ups for those who violate nationwide mandatory mask use to taskforce members in traditional masks denying entry to those attempting to access closed areas, the efforts of local authorities, both creative and standard, have been widely celebrated.

After Jokowi’s stamp of success, foreign media began focusing on Bali’s timeline for reopening, but official estimates varied. Three days after Jokowi praised the Bali government and the traditional village system, the secretary of the Tourism and Creative Economy Ministry, Ni Wayan Giri Adnyani, said in a statement that the Ministry was planning to “revitalize destinations” in select parts of the country, including Bali, between June and October, while partial reopening “may begin” in October.

On the same day, the head of the Indonesian Hotels and Restaurants Association’s Badung Regency chapter, I Gusti Agung Ngurah Rai Suryawijaya, told the ABC that Bali would “hopefully” reopen in July. Minister for National Development Planning Suharso Monoarfa, echoed this projection on May 28, announcing that “we expect Bali will be ready to open for business soon in July.”

Predictably, dozens of media outlets jumped on the July reopening period, while others opted for far less click-worthy October. For Gustra Adnyana, co-owner of a library cafe in Ubud, the contrasting timeframes only fueled his skepticism of the reports. “It isn’t clear lately,” he said. “It makes me doubtful of the accuracy of the media.”

As the squall of articles on when tourists could return to their favorite resort island intensified, so did the severity of adjectives used to describe the impact of COVID-19 on Bali’s economy. As James Guild writes in New Mandala, “some of the more sensationalist [news items] tend to privilege the perspective of foreigners or use somewhat alarmist language to push a narrative of impending disaster.” He also notes discrepancies in reports of the percentage of tourism’s contribution to Bali’s GDP. Al Jazeera pegged it at 80 percent, while Coconuts Bali quoted the deputy chief of Bank Indonesia’s Bali office, who put it between 54 and 58 percent. The latter is in line with the Central Statistics Agency’s 2019 figure of 55 percent, which Guild cites.

“For me,” he writes, “this idea that Bali will die without tourists comes uncomfortably close to a White Savior narrative, implying that local people have no choice but to hunker down and endure this crisis until foreigners start showing up again to rescue them. Such framing strips Indonesians of their agency in rising to meet this challenge, something they are quite capable of doing and have done many times before.”

Community-led initiatives to help the nation’s most vulnerable groups withstand the pandemic — such as Donations for Transwomen Bali and Pasar Rakyat Bali — receive significant local coverage, but expat-founded charities tend to attract more international media attention. A similar sentiment was expressed by Shane Preuss in The Diplomat, who pointed out that “what the Australian media has missed is the resilience of the Indonesian people.”

He also points out that in the 2019 Legatum Prosperity Index, Indonesia ranked fifth in the world for social capital and first for civic and social participation, with the highest levels of volunteering of any country. In the 2018 Charities Aid Foundation (CAF) World Giving Index Indonesia also ranked first for frequency of donating and volunteering.

Meanwhile, Eve Tedja, an associate editor of a gourmet and lifestyle publication, believes that when it comes to local perspectives, foreign media coverage of COVID-19 in Bali is “very lacking.” She contends that “if there is more coverage about real issues as opposed to Bali’s ‘mysterious immunity,’ maybe journalism can become the motor to create the necessary change.” Tedja feels that the “only genuine voice of Balinese perspectives” is independent community-based journalism portal Bale Bengong, which “allows us to speak our often unheard and most often, reluctantly voiced, opinions.”

At the end of May, Bali Governor I Wayan Koster quashed speculation on when Bali would reopen, stating there were no plans to restart the tourist industry in the near future. As reported by Kompas, Koster has insisted his government is putting the health of the island’s population first. After a recent increase in local transmissions, bringing the total number of confirmed cases as of June 10 to 608 with 409 recoveries and five fatalities, he has reemphasized the ban on large gatherings of any kind, ordered tourist sites to remain closed, and urged residents to be more cautious.

The Indonesian Tourism and Creative Economy Ministry has declared that when travel restrictions are eased, Bali will be the pilot location for the Ministry’s Cleanliness, Health, and Safety (CHS) program. The program will be rolled out across the archipelago’s top travel destinations as part of Indonesian tourism’s transition to the “new normal,” although Bali’s Deputy Governor Tjokorda Oka Artha won’t be using this term. “In the context of Bali, I don’t call it the new normal, I call it the new era of Bali, which will change the paradigm of tourism in the future,” he said during the Indonesia Tourism Forum teleconference on May 15.

So what do Balinese want their island’s “new era” to look like?

Many are concerned about environmental sustainability and preserving the natural beauty of their island, which, prior to the pandemic, drew increased volumes of tourists annually. In 2019, international arrivals grew 3.6 percent from the previous year to 6.3 million, according to the Central Statistics Agency’s Bali office.

Putu Evie, a dancer, dance teacher, and member of Trash Hero Indonesia, believes the CHS program’s hygiene and sanitation protocols will need to address the issue of waste and single-use packaging. “The public still believes single-use plastic is the answer to maintaining cleanliness and hygiene, so there must be a change in mindset first. Whether we want to or not, with this pandemic, we must learn to confront this problem.”

Although the island has long suffered from alarming amounts of plastic waste on land and in its seas and waterways, confronting the crisis has only become a major government focus in the last two years, according to Andre Dananjaya, a co-producer of Pulau Plastik, a collaborative campaign tackling single-use plastic in Indonesia.

Environmental preservation is also a priority for Ayu Gayatri Kresna, a traditional chef in Bengkala Village, North Bali. She feels that the island “needs to consider returning to quality tourism, where guests appreciate and participate in preserving the sustainability of nature, culture, and traditions.”

Cultural tourism should be one of the foundations of Bali’s new era, says Jero Mangku Istri Alas Arum, who was ordained as a Hindu priest at the age of eight in Batur, northeast Bali. “There is a cultural and spiritual sanctity that we must maintain in Bali. When this is protected, tourism will be sustainable.”

Ida Bagus A. Gangga, a member of the Desa Adat Dawan COVID-19 taskforce in Klungkung on the island’s southeast coast, believes there should be equal focus on the health and safety of the population as there is on the environment. Similarly, I Gusti Krishna Aditama, who works for a national character-building association, says “the environmental aspect needs close attention, because this is where we work and live. If the environment is destroyed, where will we live?”

In a similar vein, hotelier Bagus Ari Saputra asks, “Do we want Bali to essentially be a playground, or theme park, where people from the outside come in and have fun in a plastic space designed for their entertainment, or do we want it to be something that serves the people who live here, who in the end are responsible for managing the development on the island and the preservation of its culture and natural resources?” Bagus admits, however, that “in the end, money talks, and custom decides which places proliferate or prosper, so it will always be a dance between local landowners, developers, and business owners on the one hand, and the tourists who come here on the other.”

Wulan Saraswati, an author and Indonesian language teacher for international students, believes “we need to stop looking at Bali only as a source of foreign exchange, as if Bali only comes from foreigners who bring money. Why don’t we also look at the other potential that lies within Bali itself?”

After the massive decline in tourism caused by COVID-19, which many say is worse than the downturn after the 2002 Bali bombings and the 2017 Mount Agung volcanic eruptions combined, Koster has declared that developing other sectors of the economy, such as agricultural exports, will now be a government priority.

This is welcome news for 24-year-old specialty coffee farmer and processor I Kadek Ari Darsana in Pelaga, Central Bali, who has also worked as a tour guide. “For young Balinese who are worried about the stability of a career in tourism, I think farming is an answer.” Ayu Sudana, also a young specialty coffee farmer and processor, shares his optimism: “Coffee is a great option as no matter what happens in the world, people will still drink coffee.”

As the island’s tourism industry remains dormant, I Made Ady Wirawan, head of Udayana University’s School of Public Health, notes the most likely tourists will be Balinese themselves. “This is a good time for Bali to prepare itself.”

When the island does reopen, he urges that “the new era or new normal must be in parallel with government efforts to increase capacity in testing, treating, tracing, and isolating cases.”

[sevdrag]

dreamwidth update: isolation

(content warnings: i just talk about the shit that's going on rn cause i gotta, but if any of it is triggering for you, be careful or scroll past)

so, as it turns out - as anyone could have predicted - i'm behind AF on nano.

look, a lot of it is that the first week of november got tied up in the hellhole that was america's election. fuck. i had done a lot of research and i knew what to expect and i STILL DIDNT KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT. that entire week was draining as fuck and even the relief of them finally calling it for biden was destructive and devastating in its own way. (i cried. i dont ever cry. i fucking bawled.)

and some of it is another lesson in preparation. i have a great outline for this novel! i know all the plot beats for all three plotlines! but i didn't practice getting into either character's voice, so while im still writing, it's very third-person-onmicient type, very distant, rather than the third-person-intimate that im going for.

and ive become STUPIDLY hung up on that! LIKE, ITS STOPPING ME FROM WRITING. i realize i just need to forge ahead and i'll find their voices eventually, but like, brain matter no go. head empty no thots.

SURPRISINGLY, though, if i count all words i've written (including nano, patreon, work words, fanfic, etc) i am on pace to hit the 50K. guess what I might be doing, rather than focusing entirely on the nano words. fml. etc.

my two oldest nieces are coming this weekend for their birthday celebration. when they were young i decided that instead of birthday gifts, what each girl got was a weekend alone, just with me, where we would do super fun things and they get to have all of the focused attention from their aunt and uncle. it's worked great, but this year, because of the rona, their schedules are all fucked up (you would not BELIEVE what my bro and SIL have had to work out to manage both of their jobs with 3 children under the age of 7 at home; it's crazy), and we wanted to limit the travel as well. so both girls are coming together to stay with me, to celebrate together. i'm very excited, but wow, that's also been a whirlwind.

i had to clean the entire house. the thing is, when you've been in house since march, and you're already disabled, and you're depressed, and you're tired, and you have 5 cats, the house can quickly get to a pint where you really give no more fucks about it. hugely. bigly. i had to summon my mum, Crown, and murder husband to help me out with it, but now the house is gorgeously clean and i am happy. doing all the work at once was kind of a sledgehammer to the face tho, RIP me, but i did it.

fought with Crown over a bunch of stuff too. it's resolved and we are in a better place after having it out, but that also hit me like a fucking pickup truck, thanks.

also didnt help nano.

isolation is weird. i dont mind being alone - i love being stuck in my house alone, that's like, my dream world - but i feel like i've hunkered down here in other ways as well. friends i used to talk to daily, i check in like once a week. a BIG part of that is, well, having nothing to really say. my new contract remains in covid limbo, my other work continues, and my desire to write a novel to sell is just aksjdlkasdjggs, so like, ??? why bother to talk, there's no news here, etc.

im also just not very good at staying in touch because of (reasons) and the situation is compounding that and really doubling down on it. how can i reach out to people when im spending most of my mental energy not going completely batshit??? "hey demons. it's me. your boy."

i mean i also feel like other friends are pulling back as well, probably because none of us really have anything new to say. it's just an interesting side effect of isolation, i guess?

plus it's the jazz hands depressssiioooonnnnn ~! for all of us!

i really just exist on discord these days. honestly.

ANYWAY.

i haven't yet given up on the novel, nor have i given up on trying to grow my kofi and patreon to help me out in these terrible times. (crankyoldman, thanks so much for the Kofi! that covers this month's entire Chewy order! <3 <3 aaaaaaa ILU and i miss you guys!!) it's just such a bizarre fucking time to be a conscious thinking creature and that's weird, i guess.

went to target and bought a bunch of men's shirts for the winter. sorry but for what i want men's clothes are vastly superior. you can't get a women's t-shirt that's long enough to go over hips or really be tucked in unless you find a "tunic length" and they're like $25. i got 3 mens tees for $18. i also now have a giant hoodie with thumbholes. bless.

plus big ass sports bras. i just want my tits to be comfortable. dont always bra them, but like when im cleaning they gotta be held. gently. softly cupped in place so that they don't get tossed around too much. i dont know where im going with this.

i just want to be comfortable here in my private cave.

the stasis of isolation. such an odd year it's been this last month.

Ko-fi for the cats || Patreon for CYOA and the novel || Sev's Pub, my creative works discord || carrd for the rest

comments Comment? https://ift.tt/3ngoxji

[newstfionline]

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Poll: Learning setbacks a top concern for parents (AP) Parents across the U.S. are conflicted about reopening schools. Most are at least somewhat worried that a return to the classroom will lead to more coronavirus cases, but there’s an even deeper fear that their children are falling behind in school while at home. Sixty-nine percent of parents are at least somewhat concerned that their children will face setbacks in school because of the coronavirus pandemic, including 42% who say they’re very or extremely worried about it, according to a new poll from The University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Nearly as many, 64%, say they are at least somewhat concerned that in-person instruction will lead to more people being infected, but it’s only 33% who say they are very or extremely worried about the risk. That tension reflects the fears of a nation on the cusp of a widespread return to classroom teaching. More than a year after the pandemic started, more schools are now opening their doors to students or plan to do so in coming weeks.

Home school (US Census Bureau/Numlock) Since 2012, the rate of homeschooling in the United States has been pretty steady at about 3.3 percent. Then the pandemic hit, and according to the U.S. Census during the period late April to early May 2020, roughly 5.4 percent of households with children reported homeschooling. To be clear this isn’t doing school at home—they adjusted for that—it’s yank-the-kids-out-of-the-district homeschooling. By fall, that number was 11.1 percent of households opting for true homeschooling rather than virtual learning through school.

Damage from virus: Utility bills overwhelm some households (AP) Millions of U.S. households are facing heavy past-due utility bills, which have escalated in the year since the pandemic forced Americans hunkered down at home to consume more power. And now, government moratoriums that for months had barred utilities from turning off the power of their delinquent customers are starting to expire in most states. As result, up to 37 million customers—representing nearly one-third of all households—will soon have to reckon with their overdue power bills at a time when many of them are struggling with lost jobs or income. A study done by Arcadia, which runs a service that helps households lower utility bills, found that the average past-due amount by those in its network was roughly $850.

Is bad news the only kind? (NYT) Bruce Sacerdote, an economics professor at Dartmouth College, noticed something last year about the Covid-19 television coverage that he was watching on CNN and PBS. It almost always seemed negative, regardless of what was he seeing in the data or hearing from scientists he knew. When Covid cases were rising in the U.S., the news coverage emphasized the increase. When cases were falling, the coverage instead focused on those places where cases were rising. And when vaccine research began showing positive results, the coverage downplayed it, as far as Sacerdote could tell. But he was not sure whether his perception was correct. To check, he began working with two other researchers, building a database of Covid coverage from every major network, CNN, Fox News, Politico, The New York Times and hundreds of other sources, in the U.S. and overseas.      The results showed that Sacerdote’s instinct had been right. The coverage by U.S. publications with a national audience has been much more negative than coverage by any other source that the researchers analyzed, including scientific journals, major international publications and regional U.S. media. “The most well-read U.S. media are outliers in terms of their negativity,” Molly Cook, a co-author of the study, told me. About 87 percent of Covid coverage in national U.S. media last year was negative. The share was 51 percent in international media, 53 percent in U.S. regional media and 64 percent in scientific journals. Sacerdote is careful to emphasize that he does not think journalists usually report falsehoods. The issue is which facts they emphasize. Still, the new study—which the National Bureau of Economic Research has published as a working paper, titled, “Why is all Covid-19 news bad news?”—calls for some self-reflection from those of us in the media. Sometimes our healthy skepticism can turn into reflexive cynicism, and we end up telling something less than the complete story.

As Europe’s Lockdowns Drag On, Police and Protesters Clash (NYT) In Bristol, an English college town where the pubs are usually packed with students, there were fiery clashes between the police and protesters. In Kassel, a German city known for its ambitious contemporary art festival, the police unleashed pepper spray and water cannons on anti-lockdown marchers. A year after European leaders ordered people into their homes to curb a deadly pandemic, thousands are pouring into streets and squares. Often, they are met by batons and shields, raising questions about the tactics and role of the police in societies where personal liberties have already given way to public health concerns. From Spain and Denmark to Austria and Romania, frustrated people are lashing out at the restrictions on their daily lives. With much of Europe facing a third wave of coronavirus infections that could keep these stifling lockdowns in place weeks or even months longer, analysts warn that tensions on the streets are likely to escalate. In Britain, where the rapid pace of vaccinations has raised hopes for a faster opening of the economy than the government is willing to countenance, frustration over recent police conduct has swelled into a national debate over the legitimacy of the police—one that carries distant echoes of the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States.

Subterranean playgrounds—and refuge (Atlas Obscura) Thought to be the world’s only city with an underground master plan, Helsinki began excavating tunnels through bedrock in the 1960s to house power lines, sewers and other utilities. City planners quickly realized that the space could also be home to retail, cultural, and sporting attractions—and that it could shelter the city’s population of 630,000 in the event of an invasion from its neighbor to the East, Russia. Today, nearly 200 miles of tunnels snake beneath Helsinki, providing a weatherproof subterranean playground. But hidden behind the bright lights are emergency shelters fitted with life-sustaining equipment: an air filtration system, an estimated two-week supply of food and water, and cots and other comforts. “It’s comfortable and safe,” says Eija Kivilaakso, Helsinki’s chief underground planner. “If it’s raining, you can drive into the city center to an underground car park and go straight into department stores from elevators. You can dress for comfort instead of in cold-weather clothes. If the weather is not comfortable, people choose the underground.”

Cars become home for Spain’s pandemic casualties (AP) When the social worker called to tell Javier Irure that he was being evicted, the 65-year-old Spaniard couldn’t fathom that he could end up homeless after five decades of manual labor. “I grabbed some clothes, a few books and other things, wrapped them up in a bed sheet and told myself, ‘I have one more roof to put over my head: my car,’” Irure said from inside the old Renault Clio compact that has been his shelter for the past three months. Irure belongs to the multitude of economic victims of the coronavirus pandemic. He managed to avoid getting COVID-19, but the labor slowdown caused by restrictions on movement and social activities the Spanish government imposed to control the spread of the virus proved lethal to his financial stability, and he lost his apartment. The pandemic has been particularly hard on Spain’s economy due to its reliance on tourism and the service sector. The country’s left-wing government has maintained a furlough program to reduce the impact, but over a million jobs have been wiped out. Catholic aid organization Cáritas Española said earlier this month that around a half-million more people, or 26% of all its aid recipients, have reached out for help since the start of the pandemic. Like Javier, some are living in their cars.

Writer faces prison after calling Polish president ‘moron’ for confusion over U.S. electoral college (Washington Post) Polish writer Jakub Zulczyk says he is facing up to three years in prison after he called Poland’s president a “moron” for saying he did not understand the U.S. electoral college system. Writing on Facebook on Monday, Zulczyk said that a district prosecutor in Warsaw had filed an indictment, using an article in Poland’s penal code that prohibits insults against the head of state. The writer said he had not been contacted by the prosecutor and had found out about the indictment from a Polish news site. International rights groups have criticized Duda’s ruling Law and Justice party for clamping down on freedom of speech and an independent judiciary. Freedom House, a U.S.-based group, has called Poland’s laws related to insults “harsh” and noted that libel should be a criminal, rather than civil, offense.

Rohingya refugee camp fire (Reuters) A devastating fire that tore through a sprawling Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh killed 15 people and left tens of thousands homeless, the United Nations said Tuesday. More than 550 people were injured and 400 remain missing. The fire began Monday afternoon at Balukhali camp, one of several such settlements in Cox’s Bazar in southern Bangladesh, which is home to nearly 1 million Rohingyas who fled from neighboring Myanmar.

North Korea fires short-range missiles in challenge to Biden administration (Washington Post) North Korea fired off multiple short range missiles last weekend after denouncing Washington for going forward with joint military exercises with South Korea, according to people familiar with the situation. The missile tests, which have not previously been reported, represent North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s first direct challenge to President Biden, whose aides have not yet outlined their approach to the regime’s nuclear threat amid an ongoing review of U.S.-North Korea policy. For weeks, U.S. defense officials warned that intelligence indicated that North Korea might carry out missile tests. The regime elevated its complaints about U.S. military exercises last week when Kim’s sister warned that if the Biden administration “wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink.” The tests put renewed pressure on the United States to develop a strategy to address a nuclear threat that has bedeviled successive Republican and Democratic administrations for decades.

South Koreans Are Furious Over Housing Scandal (NYT) The 10 people bought $8.8 million worth of land in an undeveloped area southwest of Seoul, registering it for farming and planting numerous trees. It’s a common trick used by shady real estate speculators in South Korea: Once the area is taken over for housing development, the developers must pay not only for the land, but the trees, too. A national outrage erupted this month when South Koreans learned that the 10 people were officials from the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH)—the government agency in charge of building new towns and housing—suspected of using privileged information to cash in on government housing development programs. The incident has thrown President Moon Jae-in’s government into crisis mode just weeks before key mayoral elections that are largely seen as a referendum on him and his party ahead of next year’s presidential race. Young South Koreans are saying they are fed up with corruption and the president’s failed policies on runaway housing prices. The LH scandal is now set to become a critical voter issue in Mr. Moon’s final year in office. President after president has promised to make housing more affordable in South Korea, but real-estate prices have kept soaring, undermining public trust.

Massive cargo ship turns sideways, blocks Egypt’s Suez Canal (AP) A cargo container ship that’s among the largest in the world has turned sideways and blocked all traffic in Egypt’s Suez Canal, officials said Wednesday, threatening to disrupt a global shipping system already strained by the coronavirus pandemic. The MV Ever Given, a Panama-flagged container ship that carries trade between Asia and Europe, became grounded Tuesday in the narrow, man-made waterway dividing continental Africa from the Sinai Peninsula. An Egyptian official blamed a strong wind in the area for the incident. Egyptian forecasters said high winds and a sandstorm plagued the area Tuesday, with winds gusting as much as 50 kph (31 mph). The Egyptian official said tugboats hoped to refloat the ship and that the operation would take at least two days. The Ever Given, built in 2018 with a length of nearly 400 meters (a quarter mile) and a width of 59 meters (193 feet), is among the largest cargo ships in the world. It can carry some 20,000 containers at a time. About 12% of world trade by volume passes through the canal connecting Europe and Asia.

Work affects bosses, workers differently (Bloomberg) A new survey of 30,000 workers in 31 countries by the popular gaming and social networking service Microsoft found that 61 percent of business leaders said that they were striving, while just 39 percent said they were surviving or struggling. That 61 percent living their best life is markedly out of step with the entire rest of society—23 percentage points higher than the average worker—where 54 percent said they are overworked, 39 percent described themselves as exhausted, and straight up 41 percent of people said they are considering just leaving their jobs, a level of burnout not seen before.

[sabresharpdesigns]

2020...

What a hell of a year…As Lara and Kelly touched on, we literally started the past year out by nearly being forced into World War III and basketball legend, Kobe Bryant, dying. All within the first 30 days! We were forced to fight over toilet paper and hand sanitizer and choose whether to pay rent or to feed ourselves and our families and we became really good listeners (because we had to be).

March 2020- I am hunkered down in a one-bedroom apartment in Louisville, Kentucky with my boyfriend, who became the first person that I knew to contract COVID-19. My job was closed, CCAD was completely remote, and spring was blooming in “the south”. Being quarantined, I spent many days reflecting and joining class from “our” patio. I have been with my boyfriend for nearly three years and there were days where I wasn’t sure that he would make it through the night…A seemingly healthy 24-year-old who doesn’t smoke or put his health at risk, nearly on his last breath at times. With all of this going on at home, literally across town, 26-year-old, Breonna Taylor is being murdered by police in her own apartment. There is such unrest in Louisville, and the rest of the country, over this tragedy and it can be felt so severely within our tiny apartment. Not that this was even close to the first tragedy of this kind, even within the past year of this event, but something seems extra “close to home” with Miss Breonna Taylor. So young and so full of life and dreams, and it is completely ripped away from her in an instant. I will always regret not being able to do more. At the time, I was in a mandatory quarantine and then life got in the way. We began donating to every cause that we could within our budget and shopping at more local and Black owned shops and restaurants in our area but I still feel like this was not enough.  I wanted to protest and stand up for all Black people and my close friends so badly that it crushes me to this day that I did not get out while I was still in Louisville and stand up for what I believe in. As the summer went on, all of my friends were protesting, I was helping heal physical and emotional wounds, continuing to do everything that I could to help out the BLM movement. I spent most summer days working long and tedious hours to be able to pay my bills and recoup some of the money that I had lost due to the pandemic. I, again, let life get in the way and used this as an excuse to not get out on the streets. I tried to use my free time to catch up on readings and news, documentaries and inform myself on what was happening day by day. I think that is the perfect example of my privilege and the reason that I decided to use what time I did have as constructively as possible. I’d like to think that I am knowledgeable and understanding when it comes to social issues. My boyfriend was the only white man in his all-Black fraternity at Ohio University and double majored in Sociology and African-American Studies. I have learned endless amounts of knowledge from him in the last few years and especially months and realized even more than before just how important this moment in time is for us.  

I think that this last year felt like a mix of the movie “Groundhog Day” and a severe anxiety attack. Besides many personal issues, this year (or the last four years), brought so many physical, mental and emotional traumas to everybody. Not just for my Black friends and family but for my LGBTQ+ friends and family, my Latinx friends and family, my friends and family that are women. Every time you looked around it felt like there was something negatively affecting those I loved and it was heart aching. I think that this past year hit a lot harder than most and I think that it made me that much more eager to be engaged, informed and as understanding/open-minded as I can possibly be. I feel like this is such an important season in my life and I want to continue to work on being my most authentic self and help others as best I can.

[xtruss]

After 604 Years, White Storks are Nesting in Britain Again

Despite their 600-year absence, white storks have remained an important symbol in folklore, children’s stories, on pub and hotel signs, and in family names and nicknames down the centuries.

As part of ongoing efforts to restore nature in the U.K., a project is bringing beloved white storks back to the British countryside.

— July 15, 2020 | National Geographic | By Isabella Tree

A female white stork greets her mate as he brings nesting material to the top of an oak tree at Knepp Estate, in southeastern England. This year, white storks at Knepp became the first of their kind known to have bred in Britain since 1414.

Britain's White Stork Project, which aims to establish 50 breeding pairs by 2030, is part of a wider effort to restore nature.

KNEPP ESTATE, ENGLAND — High in an oak tree in the county of West Sussex, in southeastern England, a pair of free-flying white storks hatched three chicks. It was May 6, 2020, a landmark moment: It had been 604 years since the previous written record of white storks breeding anywhere in Britain. Two weeks after those first chicks emerged at Knepp Estate, another pair of storks, in another shaggy nest of sticks in a nearby oak, hatched three more.

“This achievement is beyond thrilling. We dreamed of this moment, and now the storks have done it—we have British-born chicks again!” says Tim Mackrill, a reintroduction expert with the White Stork Project. Launched in 2016, the project aims to establish 50 breeding pairs of white storks in southern Britain by 2030.

More than three feet tall, with snow-white bodies, black wings spanning seven feet, and long, red legs, white storks often nest on roofs in towns and villages across Europe, where they’re much loved. As spring migrants from wintering grounds in Kenya and Uganda and as far south as South Africa, they’re associated with good luck and rebirth—hence the fairy tale of white storks delivering new-born babies in slings from their beaks. The joyful bill-clattering of a courting pair atop their nest—a resonant knocking made by the rapid opening and closing of their beak, with head thrown back to amplify the sound through their throat pouch—associates white storks with marital tenderness.

No one knows for certain why storks disappeared from Britain, though their appearance on the menus of medieval banquets suggests that they may simply have been targeted for food. Despite their 600-year absence, however, white storks have remained an important symbol, featuring in folklore, children’s stories and illuminated manuscripts, on pub and hotel signs, and in family names and nicknames down the centuries. The White Stork Project hopes that excitement about the return of these charismatic birds will spark greater public interest in nature recovery in the U.K. and, perhaps, pave the way for more species reintroductions.

In recent months, the newcomers at Knepp indeed have been a cause for celebration—a distraction from the gloomy statistics of COVID-19 and a focus of public empathy, their actions even seeming to mirror those of humans under lockdown. At the end of March as people hunkered at home, the white storks began incubating their eggs. In mid-May with travel restrictions to nature areas in the U.K.lifted, the two sets of eggs hatched, allowing hundreds of visitors to see the chicks for themselves.

In the past few days, the first set of chicks have fledged the nest, flying down to the ground to feed on grasshoppers under the watchful eye of their parents and roosting in nearby trees at night. During the coming weeks, just as airline flights begin opening up and people take to the skies once more, the adventurous young storks will fly farther afield, perhaps even following their parents and popping over to Europe for a spell.

Although recent decades have been hard on white storks in Europe, they aren’t endangered. Draining of wetlands, habitat for amphibians and small fish the birds eat, and pesticide-driven absences of insects that supplement their diet, combined with fatalities from collisions with power lines, have led to declines in many parts of Europe. These losses in part have been offset by reintroductions in France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Poland, and Sweden.

Emblems of a Wider Movement

In the U.K.—one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world, ranked 189th out of 218 countries, according to a Biodiversity Intactness Index run by the Predicts project—more than two-fifths of mammals, insects, birds, and other wildlife have seen significant declines since the 1970s. White storks are emblematic of a wider movement to repair nature in the country, of which Knepp Estate—run by my husband, Charlie Burrell, and me—is a pioneer.

To kickstart natural processes, in 2000 we began rewilding our 3,500 acres of depleted, loss-making farmland. This hinged on restoring the river, ponds, and wetlands, allowing thorny scrub and trees to regenerate, and introducing free-roaming herbivores such as old English longhorn cattle, Exmoor ponies, and Tamworth pigs as proxies of extinct aurochs, tarpans, and wild boars. Then we stood back and allowed nature to take over.

By browsing, rootling, trampling, wallowing, and dispersing seeds in their dung, these animals have created complex, novel ecosystems, swiftly and with astonishing results. Knepp is now a breeding hot spot for endangered nightingales, turtle doves, and purple emperor butterflies. It’s home to all five species of owls In the U.K. and 13 of the 18 bat species. More than 1,600 insect species have been recorded, many of them nationally rare. All these creatures have found haven at Knepp on their own, attracted by emerging habitats and food resources.

The white storks, however, have needed help to re-establish themselves. Every year, 20 or so of the birds venture to England from Europe, but finding no other storks nesting here, they fly on. Like herons and egrets, white storks nest in colonies for safety in numbers, social learning, and ease of finding a replacement should a mate die. Without this group reassurance, they’re unlikely to attempt to breed.

European reintroduction projects have pioneered a way of mimicking a colony by raising white storks in large pens in open countryside, using non-flying rescue birds and captive-bred birds with clipped wings, to attract wild storks. Eventually, wild birds breed with the captive storks, and their offspring migrate, returning loyally to their natal site. (Read about the resurgance of white storks in France.)

In 2016, the government-approved White Stork Project chose Knepp as its starter site. The project is a partnership among three private landowners and the Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, an international charity founded by writer Gerald Durrell to save species from extinction; the Roy Dennis Wildlife Foundation, experts in bird reintroductions across Europe; and Cotswold Wildlife Park, a privately owned zoo in Oxfordshire. Knepp’s biodiverse wetlands and grasslands and open-grown trees for nesting are perfect habitat for storks. (Coincidentally, the name of the village of Storrington, just nine miles from Knepp, is derived from Estorchestone, meaning Abode of the Storks in Saxon English. The village sign features two white storks.) Two other locations—Wadhurst Park Estate, in East Sussex, and Wintershall Estate, in Surrey—were identified for establishing supplementary release pens the following year.

Knepp welcomed the first cohort of 20 juvenile storks donated from Warsaw Zoo, in Poland, into its six-acre pen in December 2016. With them were four non-flying Polish wild adults—birds injured in road accidents or by power-lines—to help instill natural social behavior in the juveniles. This replicates successful reintroductions in Sweden and Alsace, in France, where a breeding program begun in 1976 has seen white stork numbers grow from fewer than 10 mating pairs to more than 600 today.

One of the nesting females at Knepp, a particularly bold five-year-old from the first set of Polish imports, flew to France in 2018, where she spent a year with wild birds before returning to Knepp to pair up with one of the storks in her pen. (We know this because of reported sightings identifying the conspicuous ring-tag on her leg.) Another GPS-tagged juvenile raised at Knepp migrated to Rabat, Morocco, last year and is now in Spain. The male of the other nesting pair is a wild bird, one of several already attracted by the presence of the new colony.

Native or Not?

Not everyone in the U.K. embraces the White Stork Project. Opponents argue that historical evidence for white storks in Britain is slim and that they shouldn’t be considered a native species. Alfred Newton in A Dictionary of Birds, published in 1896, thought the white stork “had never been a native or even inhabitant of this country.”

Moreover, critics say, for this “new” species to attain “native” status, the birds should form colonies on their own, without human involvement. They point to the spontaneous recent arrivals in southeastern England of little egrets and great white egrets. “I would rather…allow natural colonization of our birdlife,” says Lizzie Bruce, director of British Birds magazine. To her, the white stork effort “feels more like a vanity project, especially as the species is of least concern” for conservation triage.

Birders echo that sentiment on social media, saying it would be better to focus not on a flamboyant species that isn’t endangered but on birds, such as the tree sparrow, that are struggling to survive but have less obvious appeal. Some conservationists who worry about the effects white storks might have on habitats or prey species such as insects and amphibians have called for environmental impact studies. This seems an impossible challenge, given the potential extent of the birds’ feeding range in southeastern England, the relatively small number of storks involved, and the variety of their food sources, including earthworms.

None of these criticisms trouble Ian Newton, a former visiting professor of ornithology at the University of Oxford and former senior ornithologist at the Natural Environment Research Council, the U.K.’s leading public funder of environmental science. (Newton is not affiliated with the White Stork Project.) The white stork, he says, is represented in bone remains at the Bronze Age site of Jarlshof, in Shetland; the Iron Age site of Dragonby, in Lincolnshire; the Roman site of Silchester, in Hampshire; and the Saxon site at Westminster Abbey, in London—all from long before the previous written record, in 1416, of white storks nesting in Britain.

“If we restrict ourselves to reintroducing species well-recorded in the historical record, we would exclude from consideration all those species which disappeared earlier but for which Britain still offers suitable habitat,” such as Dalmatian pelicans, night herons, and eagle owls, Newton says. Reintroductions, to his mind, offer not only the joy of seeing lost species return but also great potential for conservation.

“Generally speaking, the more widespread a species within its natural range, the more abundant and secure it is in the longer term,” Newton says, adding that reintroductions of charismatic species attract “an enormous amount of interest and support from the general public. This can benefit local economies and attract money into conservation that would otherwise be spent on other activities.” Further, the storks themselves may bolster other species. In Europe, their gigantic, shaggy nests provide nesting habitats for numerous birds such as starlings and house and tree sparrows.

Knepp’s white storks have already become something of a media phenomenon, with extensive coverage domestically but also by French and Polish TV. More than 2,500 visitors have seen the chicks since COVID-19 restrictions were relaxed, and 20 miles away, a gigantic mural on the city of Brighton’s busy North Road depicts white storks flying in to feed their chicks. The mural, expressing a heightened appreciation for both clean air and nature under lockdown, exhorts us to Let Nature Breathe—a suggestion, perhaps, that the U.K.’s magnificent white storks indeed are heralding new beginnings.

— Editor's note: This story was corrected on July 17, 2020, to say white storks had been gone from Britain for 604 years and that the juvenile that migrated to Morocco in 2019 is now in Spain.

— Isabella Tree is a freelance journalist and author. In 2018, her book Wilding—Returning Nature to Our Farm won the Richard Jefferies Award for Nature Writing and was voted one of the 10 best science books by Smithsonian magazine.

[orbemnews]

Oil prices went negative a year ago. Now the glut is gone “It was a dark and really scary time,” said Regina Mayor, KPMG’s global head of energy. “Nobody was driving. Everyone was hunkered down at their homes. We were all fighting over toilet paper.” Flash forward 12 months and US oil prices stand at $63 a barrel — exactly $100 above that record low from last April. The swift rebound in the oil patch is yet more evidence of the world economy recovering from the health crisis. Demand for energy is rising as people take road trips, hop on planes and return to work. National average gasoline prices are within striking distance of $3 a gallon. 80% of the overhang is gone The epic supply glut at the heart of negative oil is all but gone. Oil inventories in developed economies spiked to a record 3.2 billion barrels in August, according to the International Energy Agency. That was a whopping 256 million barrels above the five-year average. The surplus shrank to just 28 million barrels by February, according to the latest IEA figures. That means about 80% of the overhang is now gone. “We built an iceberg of global inventories because of the historic demand destruction,” said Michael Tran, RBC’s director of global energy strategy. “Now, inventories are essentially back to normal. We’ve erased that buffer from the oil market.” The US glut is also improving. Last week, for the first time since the pandemic erupted in March, weekly US oil inventories were down year-over-year, according to Mizuho Securities. The amount of global floating storage — tanker vessels that are stockpiling barrels — is down to 76 million barrels, the lowest since the pandemic began, according to ClipperData. That’s a sharp decline from the peak of 200 million barrels last summer. Restraint from OPEC+ and US shale The progress in shrinking the supply overhang shows the massive production cuts from leading oil players are working. Market forces caused US oil companies to slash production. After hitting a record of 12.9 million barrels per day in November 2019, US oil output crashed to just 10 million barrels per day last May. More importantly, OPEC+ agreed to record production cuts of nearly 10 million barrels per day. And most of those emergency cuts remain in place, giving the oil market time to heal and work off the surplus. The restraint shown by OPEC+ is in stark contrast to the acrimony of a year ago. Instead of taking barrels off the market, Russia and Saudi Arabia piled on production last March and April despite the collapsing economy. “Russia and the Saudis were in a battle royale to see who could damage the market the most,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities. ‘Nobody wanted to buy’ That excess supply combined with imploding demand to set the stage for subzero oil prices. “It was just a jaw-dropping day,” said RBC’s Tran. “The degree of bearish sentiment was unlike anything I had ever seen. The overwhelming majority of oil market participants did not think we could ever get to a negative print.” Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, recalls the fear in the oil market that day as market players realized they wouldn’t be able to sell barrels they had no intention of accepting delivery of. “Panic took over,” Tonhaugen wrote in a recent report. “Nobody wanted to buy.” Although the entire industry was hurt by crashing prices, analysts say it was speculators (think: hedge funds and other short-term investors) who suffered the most from subzero oil because they didn’t have the ability to store unwanted barrels. “Anyone who could take physical barrels, my clients that have tanker ships and storage tanks, they all made money off the back of it,” said KPMG’s Mayor. Yawger, a three-decade veteran of energy trading, described that day as a “psychotic moment” that shows how unrelenting oil market volatility can be. “It can sneak up on you and bite you on the butt if you don’t know what you’re doing,” Yawger said. How high will prices go? The next leg of the oil market recovery will be decided by two major factors: producer restraint and vaccines. Analysts expect major producers, especially OPEC+, to only gradually add back output out of fear of disrupting the rally. They could act more quickly in response to supply shortages. Demand for oil is still muted in Europe, where the rocky rollout of vaccines and the spread of Covid variants are causing real problems. Mobility in many European countries is still down 20% to 40% below January 2020 levels, according to a report published Monday by the International Energy Forum. But the picture is much brighter in the United States, where half of all adults have now been vaccinated. US mobility was down by just 12% at the end of March and oil bulls are betting that trend will accelerate in the coming months. “This summer there will be a complete unleashing of the vaccinated American public after being confined at home for a year,” said RBC’s Tran. “A year ago, the oil market saw the darkest day in its history. Today, the outlook could not be more diametrically different.” Source link Orbem News #glut #investing #negative #oil #Oilpriceswentnegativeayearago.Nowtheglutisgone-CNN #Prices #Year

[dipulb3]

Oil prices went negative a year ago. Now the glut is gone

New Post has been published on https://appradab.com/oil-prices-went-negative-a-year-ago-now-the-glut-is-gone/

Oil prices went negative a year ago. Now the glut is gone

“It was a dark and really scary time,” said Regina Mayor, KPMG’s global head of energy. “Nobody was driving. Everyone was hunkered down at their homes. We were all fighting over toilet paper.”

Flash forward 12 months and US oil prices stand at $63 a barrel — exactly $100 above that record low from last April.

The swift rebound in the oil patch is yet more evidence of the world economy recovering from the health crisis. Demand for energy is rising as people take road trips, hop on planes and return to work. National average gasoline prices are within striking distance of $3 a gallon.

80% of the overhang is gone

The epic supply glut at the heart of negative oil is all but gone.

Oil inventories in developed economies spiked to a record 3.2 billion barrels in August, according to the International Energy Agency. That was a whopping 256 million barrels above the five-year average.

The surplus shrank to just 28 million barrels by February, according to the latest IEA figures. That means about 80% of the overhang is now gone.

“We built an iceberg of global inventories because of the historic demand destruction,” said Michael Tran, RBC’s director of global energy strategy. “Now, inventories are essentially back to normal. We’ve erased that buffer from the oil market.”

The US glut is also improving. Last week, for the first time since the pandemic erupted in March, weekly US oil inventories were down year-over-year, according to Mizuho Securities.

The amount of global floating storage — tanker vessels that are stockpiling barrels — is down to 76 million barrels, the lowest since the pandemic began, according to ClipperData. That’s a sharp decline from the peak of 200 million barrels last summer.

Restraint from OPEC+ and US shale

The progress in shrinking the supply overhang shows the massive production cuts from leading oil players are working.

Market forces caused US oil companies to slash production. After hitting a record of 12.9 million barrels per day in November 2019, US oil output crashed to just 10 million barrels per day last May.

More importantly, OPEC+ agreed to record production cuts of nearly 10 million barrels per day. And most of those emergency cuts remain in place, giving the oil market time to heal and work off the surplus.

The restraint shown by OPEC+ is in stark contrast to the acrimony of a year ago. Instead of taking barrels off the market, Russia and Saudi Arabia piled on production last March and April despite the collapsing economy.

“Russia and the Saudis were in a battle royale to see who could damage the market the most,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities.

‘Nobody wanted to buy’

That excess supply combined with imploding demand to set the stage for subzero oil prices.

“It was just a jaw-dropping day,” said RBC’s Tran. “The degree of bearish sentiment was unlike anything I had ever seen. The overwhelming majority of oil market participants did not think we could ever get to a negative print.”

Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, recalls the fear in the oil market that day as market players realized they wouldn’t be able to sell barrels they had no intention of accepting delivery of.

“Panic took over,” Tonhaugen wrote in a recent report. “Nobody wanted to buy.”

Although the entire industry was hurt by crashing prices, analysts say it was speculators (think: hedge funds and other short-term investors) who suffered the most from subzero oil because they didn’t have the ability to store unwanted barrels.

“Anyone who could take physical barrels, my clients that have tanker ships and storage tanks, they all made money off the back of it,” said KPMG’s Mayor.

Yawger, a three-decade veteran of energy trading, described that day as a “psychotic moment” that shows how unrelenting oil market volatility can be.

“It can sneak up on you and bite you on the butt if you don’t know what you’re doing,” Yawger said.

How high will prices go?

The next leg of the oil market recovery will be decided by two major factors: producer restraint and vaccines.

Analysts expect major producers, especially OPEC+, to only gradually add back output out of fear of disrupting the rally. They could act more quickly in response to supply shortages.

Demand for oil is still muted in Europe, where the rocky rollout of vaccines and the spread of Covid variants are causing real problems.

Mobility in many European countries is still down 20% to 40% below January 2020 levels, according to a report published Monday by the International Energy Forum.

But the picture is much brighter in the United States, where half of all adults have now been vaccinated. US mobility was down by just 12% at the end of March and oil bulls are betting that trend will accelerate in the coming months.

“This summer there will be a complete unleashing of the vaccinated American public after being confined at home for a year,” said RBC’s Tran. “A year ago, the oil market saw the darkest day in its history. Today, the outlook could not be more diametrically different.”

[cliff-snowpeak]

why should the focus be on returning to normal life quickly rather than stopping people from dying?

Because we can't stop people from dying. No matter what steps we take, the result will always be the same. Hundreds of millions of people will catch the disease, a few million will display mild to moderate symptoms, and a few hundred thousand will die.

the whole point of lockdowns and social distancing measures is to not overwhelm hospitals and medical staff. slowing the virus is the goal because at our current situation, especially in america, we are not equipped to handle these kinds of numbers.

Yes, that was the point of the lockdowns, etc. And we succeeded in flattening the curve. Not a single hospital has been overwhelmed, and the emergency hospitals that were hastily built were barely even used. The navy medical ship that docked at NYC treated barely a dozen patients before leaving.

And now, we are absolutely prepared to handle the increasing numbers of cases. We have developed and discovered several effective methods of treating the disease, and even the most severe cases can be treated with little issue.

also, it might be "just another disease" but the effects are scary. we don't know the long term effects yet but there is significant damage to lungs and respiratory systems. this is not just like the common cold.

“The effects are scary.” So what? Acting on emotion will not get us any meaningful results.

Of course we don't know the long term results. It's a brand new disease. But again, we can't just hunker down indefinitely. And again, those who are most at risk (the old and the infirm) need the rest of us to establish herd immunity, so they can return to their lives.

when you're talking about young people, does this include sending children back to school? i would much rather delay things for a year rather than seeing children and young people dying at an alarming rate. and remember that it will undoubtedly be the underpriveleged and poor communities that will be disproportionately affected by this.

I don't know where you're seeing the children are dying at “an alarming rate,” but you have been lied to. One of the only things we can say with certainty about COVID is that, out of every demographic, children are the least likely to catch the disease, the least likely to spread the disease, and the least likely to die from the disease.

As for the “underpriveleged and poor communities that will be disproportionately affected,” you're absolutely right, but not in the way you think. Poor communities rely on public schools as, effectively, child care. Families with two working parents or with only one parent do not have the time to stay home with the kids and make sure they teleconference with their class.

And closing schools is bad for kids all around. Every week a child spends out of school, the more they forget, and the more time teachers have to spend reviewing when school starts up again, putting them even further behind.

It's clear that you're approaching this from a desire to minimize harm, which is commendable. However, it's also clear that you're experiencing tunnel vision. Like so many people, you see the COVID numbers rising and want to see them go down as quickly as possible.

But you're not looking at the whole picture. This isn't a choice between bad stuff happening and no bad stuff happening. It's between some good stuff and some bad stuff happening, and different good stuff and different bad stuff happening. We could reduce the COVID death numbers to zero, but then, other people would die from other causes (starvation, drug overdose, abuse, stress, lack of medication, etc.)

The goal we ought to have is not “Eliminate all COVID cases and deaths.” It should be “Reduce the overall level of suffering and death,” and the answer lies somewhere between total lockdown and ignoring the problem entirely.

[jaketheaudiophile]

Best Albums of 2020

Hello again friends! Another year has passed and therefore it’s time to reflect on the music and art we enjoyed in the past 12 months. Per my annual tradition, I’m dusting off this ol’ blog to write about my favorite albums and songs of a year that will likely live in infamy in the history books. I’m trying to reflect on the positive in both this essay and my personal mindset, so let’s not discuss social distancing or vote counts or contagious viruses or hand sanitizer and instead focus on the things that distracted us or powered us through them in the form of music.

I generally do a personal Top 15, so I decided to stick with that again for this year’s shenanigans. Best songs and potentially another new list idea soon to follow. And, as always, I welcome dissenting votes or other recommendations from those who read and agree and/or disagree.

Let’s do this!

HONORABLE MENTION:

Snooze

“Still” EP

Self-released on November 27

I normally don’t include EPs in my end-of-the-year lists unless I create a separate list devoted just to them, or 2 years ago when my favorite release of the year was an EP (shout out to Invalids). Snooze’s 2019 release “Familiaris” was my favorite album of last year, and this new EP brings a lot of the same energy and sound, but with a much different mood and circumstance. Bassist Cameron Grom tragically passed in 2020 after a lifetime of battling illness, leaving Logan Voss as the primary songwriter and lone consistent band member. Voss partnered with YouTube drum sensation and producer Anup Sastry for “Still”, and the results are certainly massive and memorable. The songs seem to be significantly sadder and more drawn out on “Still” but the circumstances certainly explain these changes. I’m grateful Voss managed to still put something out that is unique and makes me smile even during his heartbreak and struggles, so this EP is definitely still worth mentioning.

#15

Alpha Male Tea Party

“Infinity Stare”

Released December 4 via Big Scary Monsters

Both this album and the Honorable Mention are ranked pretty low on my personal list despite my personal adoration and affinity with each band. This is entirely based on how little of time has elapsed between their release dates and my compilation of this list. With some additional time to listen and process, I might have put them both higher, but without that I’m inclined to still mention them here but can’t in good conscious put them further up the rankings. Similar to Snooze, Britain’s AMTP took a slightly darker, more morose mood into their newest full length, but there’s still enough ass-kicking riffs and grooves to still inspire movement and energy. Bassist Ben Griffiths has come out of the shadows a bit more on this release as well, sharing the spotlight easily with guitarist Tom Peters and proving that he’s better than just holding down the lower notes. This album’s release was also a complete surprise, so kudos to the band for keeping things under wraps and giving fans an nice year-end present.

#14

Elder Brother

“I Won’t Fade On You”

Released October 2nd via Pure Noise Records

Elder Brother has been an object of my adoration for the past few years, but I’ve never been able to fully embrace an album of theirs as a whole. 2020’s release is no exception, unfortunately. They’ve penned some of their best songs to date (such as the gorgeous slow jam, “Projector”) and have expanded their sound with a full backing band. Unfortunately, meandering songs like “Hair” just drag away energy, and the second half of the album really just sort of panders around without resolution. The first half is top notch, but they really end with a whimper instead of a bang. Still, the great songs do shine brightly and warrant this album being included at this spot.

#13.

Jeff Rosenstock

“NO DREAM”

Released May 20 via Polyvinyl Record Co.

Speaking of surprise releases, perennial punk powerhouse Jeff Rosenstock put out “NO DREAM” with no promotion whatsoever. This left fans obviously surprised and that shock was quickly overwhelmed by a super high energy record full of infectious melodies and garage-rock aesthetics. There are a few clunkers but otherwise this is a charming and pleasant listen with some surprisingly deep and brutally honest lyrics and subject matters by Rosenstock. It was also cool to see Jeff get some solid publicity from this record such as an appearance on Late Night with Seth Myers. More attention for musicians like Rosenstock who have clearly put in the hard work is a worthy cause, so props to him and his merry band of misfits.

#12

Knuckle Puck

“20/20″

Released September 18 via Rise Records

Chicagoland’s Knuckle Puck have been one of the more impressively consistent pop/punk bands of recent years. I’ve always admired their skilled dual vocal arrangements, clean-boosted guitar tones and monstrous hooks. I definitely enjoyed this release but I also have a hard time distinguishing a majority of the moments after the record has stopped spinning. When it’s on, it’s pleasant and fun, but I’m hard pressed afterward remembering what songs are on this release and what are on previous years’ albums or singles. More KP music is never a bad thing, but hopefully future releases give them more sticking points.

#11

Unwed Sailor

“Look Alive”

Released July 12 via Current Taste

After over a decade of near-radio silence, Unwed Sailor have come out with guns blazing in the past two years. Johnathan Ford has put together a new band (most recently including longtime Minus The Bear drummer Erin Tate) and has churned out two full-length records in back-to-back years. I personally prefer 2020’s “Look Alive” slightly to 2019’s “Heavy Age” as it feels more of a throwback to the simpler, jammier Unwed Sailor releases of old. The record doesn’t really have any down points but also tends to drift along without a ton of memorable moments, oddly. Still, though, Ford and company seem to be on a torrid pace and I’m all in favor of enjoying the ride.

#10.

August Burns Red

“Guardians”

Released April 3 via Fearless Records

The model of consistency. August Burns Red are a well-oiled machine at this point. Every few years they hunker down in the studio and churn out another genre-setting collection of catchy metalcore songs. Drummer Matt Greiner is the most outstanding on this release (as per usual) with some truly jaw-dropping fills and beats, and the production for this record is top notch as always. It’s sort of hard to explain what’s good about this because it’s anything and everything. You can set your watch to this band and I’m grateful every time I put them on.

#9.

Melted Bodies

“Enjoy Yourself”

Released September 18 via Plastic Smiles

Another year, another band that Anthony Fantano turns me on to makes my AOTY list. The Internet’s Busiest Music Nerd didn’t formally review this album but did say they kicked ass in a “Y U NO REVIEW” segment. After a few moments of listening, I sprung for the album and it completely took over my music library for the past few months. I equate them as a sort of bizzaro hybrid between “Tim and Eric Awesome Show Great Job” and System of a Down, with Mike Patton-esque vocals, brutal but fun breakdowns, unique electronic elements and overall weirdness. Seemingly containing every genre of music all at once, this album is all over the place in all the best ways. What an amazing debut. It’ll be fun to see where these oddballs go from here.

#8

Beach Comber

“Parting Cuts”

Self-released on April 24

What a fun surprise this record was; in retrospect it feels like that was a recurring theme for bands and artists in 2020. Beach Comber is Rory Friers, riffmaster general from And So I Watch You From Afar. This album doesn’t sound like anything his main group has put out, but instead was meant to be a wedding present for two of Frier’s friends that would never see a mass release. If there’s one good thing that COVID did, it was to encourage Friers to put this out as a pay-what-you-want release to gather some funds in lieu of touring and playing shows. Because of this, we were blessed with a very different but exceptional collection of minimalist, varied low-fi rock. It feels like a lost Anathallo album or Sufjan Stevens b-side collection, and was a welcome breath of happy fresh air.

#7

Hot Mulligan

“You’ll Be Fine”

Released March 6 via No Sleep Records

It feels like every year I’m thanking my buddy Steve Lee on this list for getting me hooked on a quality emo record. He first sent me the incredibly fun video for “*Equip Sunglasses*”, but I wasn’t immediately hooked. I couldn’t quite get into Nathan Sanville’s scream/sing vocal style at first, and thought the band was slightly generic. Still, I found the song getting stuck in my head for roughly the next rest of my life, and eventually checked out the full album, and was pleasantly surprised by the subtly complex intertwining guitar leads and arrangements. Also, kudos to the band for writing pointed and brutally honest lyrics on topics that some bands wouldn’t touch (go read the lyrics for “Digging In”). And yes, Sanville’s vocals eventually ended up really, really growing on me. These young men from Lansing, MI should be proud of themselves for their strong stances and songwriting, and it’ll be fun to see what they put out next.

#6

Man Man

“Dream Hunting in the Valley of the In-Between”

Released May 1st via Sub Pop

After a few years of relative silence, Philly-based weirdos Honus Honus and Man Man gathered up another pile of instruments and multi-instrumentalists, and the result is yet another collection of supremely catchy songs.  Longtime fans like me knew what they were getting, but I think this is one of Man Man’s most complete and accessible albums yet, with not a moment wasted or thrown in without thought. There are so many fun little vocal quips (The random “Went straight to voicemail!” in “Goat”; the solo chorus of “Sucking diiiiiiick” in “The Prettiest Song in the World”) that make the listener smile every time. Everything feels planned out and executed flawlessly, which is impressive when each song features several guest musicians (including Rebecca Black!) and a rotating cast of instruments and players. Keep being weird, Man Man. We don’t deserve you.

#5

Protest The Hero

“Palimpsest”

Self-released on June 18

It had been 7 years since Canada’s Protest The Hero put out a full length after leaving the world of record labels and crowdfunding campaigns. It wasn’t without its difficulties, largely due to singer Rody Walker running into vocal issues during recording sessions. Thankfully, he was able to overcome his difficulties and frankly, he killed it. There wasn’t much more life-affirming than hearing him hit ungodly high notes at the end of “From The Sky” and his joy-filled delivery was infectious on every other song. And of course, the rest of the band also fully delivers with their usual technical brand of metal. No complaints at all, hope the next one doesn’t take 7 years to show up.

#4

Caspian

“On Circles”

Released January 24th via Triple Crown Records

I was very excited about this release from basically the end of 2019 on, as these Massachusetts instrumental rock mainstays released the single “Flowers of Light” at year’s end. Thankfully, the album delivered in spades, and it is easily my favorite instrumental release of 2020. Well, that’s not technically true; 2 of the 8 songs have vocals. One welcome addition is an awesome contribution by Pianos Become The Teeth’s Kyle Durfey for “Nostalgist”, who fits the band like a glove. The second vocal track is the lovely eponymous closing track, which gives a pleasant change-up conclusion. Caspian’s three guitar approach means the listener always has a wide swath of atmospheric noise and full bodied sound, and the formula is definitely still working. There’s a reason this sextet are revered, and “On Circles” is the band firing on all cylinders.

#3

Touche Amore

“Lament”

Released October 9 via Epitaph Records

Touche Amore has been one of my favorite bands for several years running, so expectations were very high for their fifth release. 2016’s “Stage Four” was a massive success but is still very hard for me to re-listen to or encounter due to the heaviness of the album’s subject matter, and “Lament” is at least a change in that pace. Jeremy Bolm is never one to pull punches or address the uncomfortable, and his vocal delivery is as engagingly abrasive as ever. Bassist Tyler Kirby is the most obviously improved, but that may also be the production choice of Ross Robinson, who seems to have received as much publicity by working on this record than the band did. All in all, more the same is never bad with these screamo mainstays.

#2

Into It. Over It.

“Figure”

Released September 18 via Triple Crown Records

Evan Weiss is the one reliable dude. We get a new Into It. Over It. record every 3 or 4 years, and they’re always great. His songwriting and arrangement skills are top notch, and there’s enough cool little moments or unique additions to keep the listener engaged throughout the entire album. Weiss’s skills as a guitarist are in the spotlight as always (”We Prefer Indoors”), but drummer Adam Beck proves his talents throughout (”Brushstrokes”). What truly makes the album great for me are the little moments of variety or subtle changes in instrumentation or delivery that pop up in every song. The best example is the middle of the second verse of “Living Up To Let You Down”, when the band changes up the straightforward beat and chord progression to deliver a double-time feel with differently punctuated guitar chord hits (this is very hard to describe in writing; just listen to the song at 1:28). If the songs on their own weren’t catchy or well-rounded on their own, this album would be great, but it’s the moments like this that truly push it out on top. This record lived up to every high expectation I had and I’m thrilled that Mr. Weiss is a part of my life.

#1

END

“Splinters From an Ever-Changing Face”

Released June 5 via Closed Casket Activities

But enough about positive thoughts and happy feelings...Every piece of writing or commentary on 2020 will likely point out how bad of a year that we all just experienced and how grateful we are to be moving forward. I definitely agree with this sentiment for the most part but do feel like we had a lot of interesting positive moments in the year in general. However, with that logic, no album better summarizes my general aesthetic towards this weird quarantined year than this ungodly amalgamation of brutal hardcore this supergroup has wrought. Counterparts vocalist Brendan Murphy sounds like a completely different beast with a lower delivery and growl than his fans traditionally encounter, and guitarist and wunderkind producer Will Putney makes this record sound horrifying, hellacious and, well, HEAVY. Add in some unnerving audio samples and the fact that most songs are between 1 and 2 minutes, and I can’t think of anything else to best summarize my feelings toward 2020. This was the perfect album to put on and let loose any angry or negative thought with the ferocity of the tsunami of sound this group created, and should be commended as such. 

[theliterateape]

Now Is the Time to Be Gracious and Get to Work Being Honest with Ourselves

by Don Hall

Whew.

We squeaked by with that one despite Biden/Harris winning more votes than any other ticket in history. Donald Trump also won the second most votes than any other candidate in history. In more ways than a few this shit was historic.

As obvious the road is all uphill, I’ll admit to bawling like a child when it hit me that we were rid of Trump and that it was Joe Biden and Kamala Harris taking the reigns. Tears of joy, of relief, of optimism paying off.

Still the Left lost some of the House and might take the Senate but this was not the election we were promised. As I wrote last week, the will of the people has been cast and we are almost 50/50 in worldview here, gang. Bitter as it is to swallow, nearly half the country does not buy the progressive vision. This isn’t just the South. This isn’t just cities vs rural areas.

Trump received the largest percentage of non-white votes of any other conservative candidate — you guessed it — in history. Pretty much debunks the monolithic viewpoint that Trump supporters are all white supremicists, huh?

I’ve heard squawk that Biden won because of black voters. And progressive voters. And young voters. Horseshit. How typical, the jockeying for credit in something historic. The credit goes to a vast multicultural liberal numbers not one demographic category. Forty-five million independent voters (neither affiliated with Blue or Red) voted this year. That’s historic, too. Biden won because of people not in line with either party or ideology. Biden won because so many of us hated Trump.

At this phase, Trump ain’t going quietly. Lots of lawsuits. Recounts. Tantrums. Conspiracy theories. We now get to witness the full madness of our King George, a meltdown so massive it would be good to take serious note of how badly we can get things wrong in our democracy. One fact we need to acknowledge before our nipples get hard and we go running in the streets naked, flogging MAGA hat wearers with our engorged cocks:

If it hadn’t been for a pandemic, he would’ve won.

No. It wasn’t the woke message of the victim classes that sealed this win for us. It wasn’t the democratic socialists dressed in black fighting against fascism. It wasn’t the fat, black lesbian instructing white people that they are all racist that brought out the vote for Blue. It wasn’t the Bernie Bots raging against the one percent. It wasn’t the cultmind of the white fragility hucksters and anti-racism grifters that thwarted the horrible man.

It was a virus that he handled like a demented, angry man who truly believed that only the weak get sick.

We did not defeat Trump. He defeated himself. The man has been accused of multiple rapes, tax fraud, and was impeached by the House of Representatives and skated right on past it all but his inept refusal to humble himself to an act of savage nature was his undoing.

Despite his bumbling incompetence in the face of Coronavirus, seventy million people voted for him. Are you so arrogant and morally vacuous to label seventy million people racists monsters? Are you that stupid?

There will be months of justifying why half the country disagrees with the Left in terms of governance. It wasn’t half. We won by five million votes. It was beyond decisive. There will be thinkpieces in Medium claiming that Hispanics are full of white adjacents and that we should round up all the Trump Enablers and have them shunned and shamed (in between essays about how difficult it is to be black in an Ivy League university and how that guy who ghosted her was actually proliferating a rape of feels). Yes. There will be plenty said and absolutely no self reflection.

We (and I use ‘we’ to signify a collective encompassing all of us who value the ideals of a liberal democracy comprising seventy-five million citizens who voted Blue) fucking blew some serious stuff on this one.

What do we know?

Neither Bernie nor Warren would’ve won (even in the razor thin margins that Biden did).

That the loss in 2016 may have been less about Hillary Clinton or her campaign and more about this fifty/fifty split in worldview.

That Hispanics are not a monolithic voting bloc of similar ideologies. Neither are blacks. Or Asians. Or whites.

That race polarization is far less important than class stratification.

That “Defund the Police” is a shit slogan. And a worse strategy.

That seventy million of our countrymen and women would rather have a piece of shit like Donald Trump in charge than hand things over to the humorless cult members of the Woke.

That calling seventy million people racists didn’t somehow convince them that they were and cause the scales to fall from their eyes.

Most people find some humility when they lose. In 2016, we found none. It was sexism! It was racism! It was that we fucked Bernie out of the nomination! This week we won but we won small. We won because of a natural disaster not because of the strength of our ideas or the compassion for our fellow citizens or for our brilliant communications skills (which is a surprise as so many liberals have degrees in marketing and communication).

We won. And we need some goddamned humility for not beating a hopeless incompetent and morally bereft turd like Donald Trump with a repudiation only seen by the light of damnation and hellfire. We won but just barely given the brazen horror of the man (and, no, you don’t take down a dictator by voting meaning as awful and embarrassing as the man was and is, he was and is definitely not a dictator). In any other reality (except for a Black Mirror episode) we should have beaten him so badly that he, Giuliani, and McConnell changed their names and became dentists in Brazil.

We won but we lost.

I’m thrilled to be rid of Trump although we are not rid of the reality that his stances on immigration, the police, democratic socialism, American isolationism, and the idea that COVID only affects the weak are incredibly popular with just a bit less than half the country. Until the man dies, he will have an undue influence on things.

So what now?

We celebrate in direct contrast to the CDC advisories to avoid crowds. The ‘rona loves this shit and is wholly apolitical. A Trump rally and a Biden celebration look pretty much the same to the virus. Republicans caution us to avoid being sore winners as if the rules change if they lose.

I hope the adults in the national room hear the song being played. I hope that we can listen to but not be bound by the complaints of the fringe. I hope we can reframe our ideas to convince a plurality of Americans that progress is a good thing for everyone not just a select few who hunker down in their guns rights and racial division cults.

We’ve spent at least two decades behaving like Donald Trump — angry, self-involved, namecalling, divisive. It took having that avatar of unselfish-reflective narcissism occupying our highest office for just over half of us to get tired of it but wholly adopt his methods to defeat him. We can be better than that so why not try to be?

[newstfionline]

Headlines

Many people infected with coronavirus show no symptoms (Bloomberg News, Eurosurveillance) About half the people who tested positive for the coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship appeared to show no symptoms, according to an estimate published Friday. Of the 634 confirmed cases aboard the ship off of the coast of Japan last month, 328 were reported to be asymptomatic, the review said. There were 3,063 people tested on the ship in total. The study, published in peer-reviewed open-access medical journal Eurosurveillance, adds to the growing body of research suggesting that a significant portion of people infected with Covid-19 show no symptoms. Determining how often that occurs is crucial to better realizing its transmission potential, the authors said.

Panicked Shoppers Empty Shelves as Coronavirus Anxiety Rises (NYT) As President Trump declared a national emergency on Friday, hordes of shoppers flooded stores across the nation and emptied shelves, looking to stockpile groceries and household items to prepare for uncharted territory. Stores were overwhelmed with long lines of customers waiting just to enter what would be a disorienting space of packed aisles, backed-up checkout lanes and weary employees.

Coronavirus crisis rocks higher education (Washington Post) Colleges run on routines and rituals. The coronavirus pandemic smashed all the routines this week, forcing hundreds of thousands of undergraduates to scatter from campuses around the country, return from study abroad and hunker down at home. They will still be taking classes, but remotely, with cellphones and laptops for at least a few weeks and perhaps the rest of the school year. By Friday, the rush to online teaching affected more than 1 million college students. Questions and criticism instantly arose. Many parents pay more than $60,000 a year for tuition, room and board at private colleges to help their children obtain a top-notch residential education. Other students receive significant financial aid and rely on meal plans and university housing.

US hospitals brace for ‘tremendous strain’ from new virus (AP) U.S. hospitals are setting up circus-like triage tents, calling doctors out of retirement, guarding their supplies of face masks and making plans to cancel elective surgery as they brace for an expected onslaught of coronavirus patients. Depending on how bad the crisis gets, the sick could find themselves waiting on stretchers in emergency room hallways for hospital beds to open up, or could be required to share rooms with others infected. Some doctors fear hospitals could become so overwhelmed that they could be forced to ration medical care. “This is going to be a fairly tremendous strain on our health system,” warned Dr. William Jaquis, president of the American College of Emergency Physicians.

US government eyes more fiscal stimulus (WSJ) U.S. policy makers are contemplating a significant fiscal stimulus to protect businesses and consumers from the economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus epidemic, with talks on the size, speed and composition of such an effort in the early stages. The steps being considered would follow the sick-leave and unemployment-assistance bill now being negotiated in Congress and set for a vote late Friday. Lawmakers are seeking to achieve two goals: one is to help workers who miss paychecks and companies that lose business, such as restaurants and retailers. Another is to provide broad support for the economy to prevent or soften a recession.​

Mexico Braces for Coronavirus Lasting ‘All Year’, Tightens Curbs (Reuters) Mexico warned on Saturday that the coronavirus outbreak could last all year as it began rolling out tougher measures to contain the spread, calling for an end to large gatherings and extending Easter school holidays.

Germany promises unlimited aid to businesses (Financial Times) Germany pledged unlimited cash to businesses hit by the coronavirus, in what finance minister Olaf Scholz described as a big “bazooka” to avert a crisis in the eurozone’s largest economy. The move was part of a series of measures taken by governments and regulators across Europe and the US designed to reassure business and steady markets, amid fears that the pandemic could trigger a severe credit crunch and global recession. It came as Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, warned that the corona crisis was delivering a “major shock” to EU economies and vowed to give member states ample leeway to ramp up spending in response.​

Chinese companies cut worker pay rather than lay off employees (Nikkei Asian Review)​ A growing number of Chinese employers have cut employee pay as the novel coronavirus outbreak wreaks havoc on industries from autos and retail to tech and advertising. Most workers have accepted the reductions because of poor employment prospects in the virus-hit economy. The Chinese government, circumspect of massive job losses, has signaled tolerance for the trend.​

Australia to Impose 14-Day Self-Isolation on International Travelers (Reuters) Australia will impose 14-day self-isolation on international travelers arriving from midnight Sunday and ban cruise ships from foreign ports for 30 days, mirroring restrictions in nearby New Zealand aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

Other coronavirus news (wire services) Iran is suffering from the worst outbreak in the Middle East. Spanish PM declares state of alert as coronavirus cases surge. Mass gatherings to be banned as Boris Johnson makes coronavirus U-turn. Switzerland bars Italians. Denmark, Poland and Czechs seal borders over coronavirus. Russia will close its land borders with Poland and Norway. Norway advised its citizens not to travel abroad for the next month. The Palestinian Authority suspended prayers in mosques and churches in the occupied West Bank. Rwanda and Namibia detect first cases. And Kenya, Ghana and Ethiopia all confirmed their first coronavirus cases.

[hiphopscriptures]

Fresh Artist Fridays: Alex Harris Interview - DRAFT

Like most of us, Alex Harris’s life underwent some severe changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. He had to reevaluate his process for making music and hone in on the message he wanted to share through his work. His latest EP titled Frequency is his gift to humanity, an attempt at bringing positive vibrations and good feelings to a dark world. Read Hip Hop Scriptures’ interview with this week’s Fresh Artist Friday Alex Harris below.

conducted by Willow Rose, transcribed by Priscilla Guadarrama

My name is Willow Rose and I’m an intern at Hip Hop Scriptures. I’m focusing on PR and social media management. I know our audience may or may not be familiar with your work so I was wondering if you could tell me a little bit about your background. When did you become interested in music and realize you wanted to perform and create new music?

Willow thank you so much for having me on the show. Yeah so basically I started music when I was 7 years old. In my family, we are a big family - five boys three girls eight of us, and I'm in the middle. I've been singing and doing my thing with entertainment since I've known pretty much I could communicate with people. But I started in my parents' church. My father is a pastor of a small congregation in rural Georgia, in the city of Manchester. Over the years my brothers and I, and my sisters initially (the sisters were a part of the group, the family group), and then it evolved to just only being the brothers. And we were known as A7, we called ourselves Inspiration Urban. We travelled all over and then as time progressed, each brother got called to do something very specific, whether it was in the law or authoring books. {two of his brothers continued in the music industry as well}. My roots run deep into music, all the way back to Manchester. 

That’s brilliant. You started to touch on my next question. I read that you graduated from Boston University with a masters in Theology and Social Work. I wondered how your background in Theology influenced your music?

What I do - I call it new age soul music. And I think my background, both in social work and I have a minor in psychology undergraduate and a theology degree, which was focused on ethics - that eclectic exposure in learning beyond the roots of Georgia and Manchester, all that experience pours into how I interpreted the power of music. How I use its power and how I allow it to also speak to me and through me to the world. That is the reason why I call what I do new age soul because it is embedded into more of a spiritual element of music itself. I think that we are all spiritual beings, every human experience, and so I think that music is one of the three powerful elements of the universe. Fire and water being two, music being the other because that is how our life begins - with the beat of the heart. 

I love that philosophy on the three powerful elements. Listening to your EP, Frequency that just came out, I really felt there was universality in your lyrics and a lot of passion. It is so clear in how you are forming your lyrics and the beat. Would you say that your religious influence and growing up in Georgia - is what drew you to the soul genre? 

I think so. I think that was my initial introduction to soul because soul music as a genre, as we have known it, was developed as a combination of gospel, R&B, and some rock and roll too because it comes out of the African American experience as well. But as I grew, because all we listened to was gospel and quartet and gospel choirs and then later people like Al Green and his gospel music and Pastor Shirley Caesar and Caravans and all the groups that our parents loved. But as I became a teenager I started to explore other genres of music: jazz and country music. Georgia has a lot of country stations. And once being introduced to Ray Charles’ story, his country album - music has no boundaries. Regardless of your faith, you don’t have to have a particular sound to do a style. You could bring yourself and your own experience to that particular genre and allow it to evolve to whatever it evolves to. And so it really started to open my thought around how can I bring my whole self, my personal experience - African American, growing up in Georgia, in the rural South, from a big family, from a Gospel background, singing with my brothers, academic experience - what is it that I can bring beyond just saying, “Oh I can sing, oh you can sing” and sing a song or write a song because I’ve been entrusted with a gift to do so? But how can I utilize this gift for the better good of the human experience? So that's where I really come from. And what you hear on the Frequency EP is with intentions to raise our frequency - and not just my own in creating it with the great producers I worked with and writers - but also to those who listen and to be invited to this experience together. So it is not just me sending out waves through the frequency or the vibration of the music itself but also it’s an invitation to the hearer to participate in this rising of positive vibrations that are exhumed from us. That’s what the record is all about. 

That’s brilliant. I love the idea of raising vibrations. I feel like this is a tumultuous time for a lot of reasons and having positivity out into the world is something that we need right now. I was reading about the background of the EP, that it was born out of personal experiences. Would you say there was a particular experience that kind of started the creation of the EP as a whole?

I had been writing with several writers (LA, NY, Nashville) over the last couple of years, with them developing a body of work. However, the personal experience, as we all have experienced, but each had a different take on it, was the national lockdown/pandemic. This is when I really start to hunker down. I started to hunker down, the team did. But at the same time, before hunkering down and really honing in on what was created and the opportunity I had to create, there was this enormous wave of, ‘Ahhh!’, of fear come over me, and I was sitting in my living room and all kinds of thoughts - what’s gonna happen, afraid to leave the house - I mean we didn’t know what was going on, no one knew. We only knew what was being fed through the frequencies of popular media and social media. It started to control my environment, my own climate, and I had to settle down and say ‘be still my soul, be still everything my mind and everything about me’ and really say ok - what is it that I can do? Where can I draw from? How can I draw from what I have to create something positive? I reset my own thought process and start to re-engage my team and start to write new music. And really look at the different experiences I had personally participated in or personally observed. It’s really about finding love, being in love, social justice. The song “Humanity” was written and released on Juneteenth and re released on the Frequency, as it relates to the murder of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor and the many senseless -isms: racism, sexism, ageism - that exist and how I felt that at some point in time I had to play by the rules in order to be accepted, especially growing up in Georgia, in the rural South, and I start to say this is what I have to do and start reflect on other people’s stories, friends and of my family as well. It kind of drove the narrative for that piece, “Feel Some Kind Of Way”, the senseless killings in schools and it’s just so much that we’ve seen all the time and we’re saying that there is peace. Peace can be with us. Peace can be in our environment. Unless we start to allow that exude from us and reverberate in some way or another then I don’t think we will ever experience it in a person. But we can’t wait on some external force to do it. We have to bring it to the environment, the universe, to ourselves. 

Listening to the EP, my favorite track was “Humanity”. I love that you were going in depth on you reasons for writing it. How has the pandemic shaped the creation and production of your new music? I think the universal condition of all of us being in this situation together is a unique opportunity.

It’s a very unique experience for us to really reflect and to value the humanness of humanity. Just look at all the losses. It was an awakening to say, you can be this way, feel this way, or be in this place and then in the next moment, the next day, the next 24 hour period, everything is taken away, or everything is paused. And it was really an awakening moment. “Falling For You” comes from that space where we can be vulnerable and fall in love again and again and everyday allow and discover something because all we have is this moment. Allow time to stand still and it really helps to encourage to love who you love and love hard. Don’t be afraid to do it because we never know what the next moment will bring. This was very awakening. It’s a very emotional record around everything that was going on and everything that is going on.

Do you have a favorite track on your EP?

That's very hard because I think it just depends on a lot of things — because I think when we chose the body of work it was like out of all the writing I’ve done over the last couple of years, I was trying to develop something to create this body and not really creating it until the lockdown. Ordering equipment and having it sit on the porch for a while and the patio and then come back and get it cause we weren’t sure if we were supposed to touch it or let it sit out there. So all those things but also, each represent me in so many different ways, and my thought process around the human experience. It’s a very hard question but if I absolutely had to I think it probably would be “Humanity”. I think because of where we are. Second to that would be “Falling For You”. I love love. 

I can relate. I think with “Humanity”, obviously it is presently relevant but I feel like it’s timeless in the sense that we all need to have strength within us to then stand up and speak out for things that are important to us. What has been your most impactful moment in your music career thus far? Have you had any moments where you were starstruck of just surprised at everything going on?

I don’t think I’ve been starstruck but I have met some stars- cause we grew up in the industry around since we were younger so it became a part of our way of life, my brothers and I and sisters. However, I think certain opportunities are amazing, I’m so grateful. I’m always grateful but sometimes the gratitude is in a different category. When I think about that I came from a small town, I was born in a trailer that my dad bought when he first started teaching, and then he got married, and then that trailer burned, and we moved in with our great aunt for a short while until he was finally able to build a house. So just the struggles and challenges of the path that we’ve taken. And then to ride with our parents really promoting education and faith and music in our family. It led to all of us graduating from high school, all of us going to college, two or three times. I think among the family there are over 20 college degrees. I know that it is not the path for everyone. It doesn’t have to be but it is special to me because it’s a testament to my parents who were the first to be educated, to receive post-secondary education in my family. It really is important to me that I share that and I value that experience and it speaks to where I am today.

I can definitely relate to the idea of just getting an education. I’m in school at the moment and I’ve read recently that just for undergraduate degrees only about 30% of Americans even finish their bachelors, let alone going into higher education. I think that’s really amazing that so many people in your family have been able to get an education.

My family and I have been very blessed and with lots of gratitude and humility. We are a testament because I share often how my parents, my father and mother, were the first to go to college, receive a post-secondary education. For them, education, faith, and of course the arts (music), were the elements of our development. I know the impact of the arts and music first hand on not just my life but on my siblings. I’ve seen it also on my foundation which I think my background certainly is the foundation of my thought process, so I try to share that experience not just through my recordings but also with the foundation that I have in helping a lot of underprivileged, underserved young people and teenagers in our community.

How long has the foundation been around?

The foundation has been around for more than two years. I started that in the interim of the brothers to figure out my own rhythm and sound and the direction I felt very passionate about. 

Do you have any final message to tell our audience regarding your work or a cause that you’re passionate about?

I thank you first, again. Let me just say thank you again in my last words to you for having me on. I want one of those who are listening to of course check out the record Frequency. It’s a 6 song EP and I’m really super excited about it. It’s got a vibe and the vibe has all to do with raising the vibrations and love, romantic life. Also a raise in vibrations around social justice, raising vibrations around just loving family, whoever and however you view family and close friends, biological connection. It comes from those three angles. The intention is that we all find another place or space to love ourselves and those around us. A space and place for healing and a space or place of hope. This kind of soul revival or renewal of the human spirit is what the Frequency EP is about. So far, it’s getting great reviews. I’m really super excited about it. We were just number 1 on one of the largest stations. Also we are doing well in Europe. We went number 2 last week on the largest soul/R&B station out of Italy. So we are super excited about the response we are getting and we just want to keep raising the frequencies and the vibrations through the music. Please follow me on social media. You can go to my website and find all my social media handles there at alexharrisofficial.com. I’d love to connect and be a part of a global community making things happen through positive work.

ABOUT ALEX HARRIS:

Alex Harris is a modern soul singer with Gospel roots and is revered as one of the leading creative architects and performers of ‘New Age Soul’ music. ‘New Age Soul’ music offers a spiritual revival to uplift humanity ensconced in healing, hope, renewal, freedom, and love. “I believe that music is one of the three most powerful elements of the universe because it has the power to raise the frequency of humans through rhythm, melody, and sound.”

Alex runs A.C.T. (Arts Conservatory for Teens) and lectures worldwide. He has shared the stage as a performer with Al Green, Aretha Franklin, John Legend, H.E.R., Brandy, and Lionel Richie. Label Cross The Line Music, Ltd is a joint venture between 2 producers -Richard Gottehrer (Blondie, The Go Go’s, Raveonettes) and GRAMMY Award winning producer and songwriter Swagg R’Celious (H.E.R.). His “Frequency” EP is available now on all streaming platforms, and is a unique sonic blend of southern soul, alternative grooves, and Gospel grit.

STAY CONNECTED WITH ALEX HARRIS ON SOCIAL MEDIA:

Instagram - Facebook - Twitter - SoundCloud- Spotify - YouTube - Amazon

STAY CONNECTED WITH HIP HOP SCRIPTURES ON SOCIAL MEDIA:

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Business marketing: Tips to Market Your Small Business Locally

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Take Your Seasonal Marketing Strategy to the Next Level

Whether you've recently started a small business or have pivoted your sales tactics for your company because of COVID-19, you're probably thinking about how to increase holiday sales.

It's approaching fast, and now's the perfect time to start your seasonal marketing strategy so you can bring shoppers through your doors or to your website.

But first... understand the holidays are going to look very different this year.

I talked about how your customers' purchasing decisions this fall/winter may look completely foreign from what they did last year a few weeks ago in a previous blog.

Now I'd like to show you how to increase your holiday sales locally, so here are four ways you can enhance your digital and physical presence: 

1. Create content with a local twist.

If you're setting up your store for the holidays, consider festive "Shop local" signage that reminds people to support their community businesses.

Because many consumers will be staying home this year, spending time with a select few family members or setting up socially distant visits with friends and neighbors, it's important to provide valuable online content, too.

According to Google, 35% of Canadians are finding in-store shopping difficult because of COVID-19. I'm predicting that a lot of people are going to hunker down and do their gift shopping online, rather than venturing out to stores.

So that's good news if you have an eCommerce store. But people don't just want to scroll through product page after product page. They want to see articles, videos, reviews, and testimonials.

Consider creating articles that focus on local activities and even mention other small businesses (that you don't compete with!). For example, you could write a blog on five fun things to do in your city this season, linking to a small business that sells holiday goods or crafts. Then, write a call to action that links back to your own product or service as a great gift idea.

2. Partner with a local charity.

Many small business owners donate time and/or money to causes that align with their values. In addition to being a kind thing to do, partnering with a charity can also make your customers more likely to purchase gifts from you.

You could donate a certain percentage of each purchase or give an item for every item purchased. Setting up a gift-wrapped donation bin at your business allows you to show your customers how many items you're giving away, or you could post photos and numbers online.

Your customers (and you) will be supporting a worthy cause, and you'll also be promoting your small business.

3. Spruce up your store or website or social media profiles

Just like you might decorate your home with garlands and stockings, decking out your store and/or website and social media accounts can create a festive feeling.

Consider using local decor to support other small businesses and reinforce the messaging to shop locally.

If you're doing your decorating online, update your profile imagery and posts with some virtual holiday decor that has a local flavor. Think beyond a snowman and include a snowy local mountain, or a shot of holiday lights at a tourist attraction near you.

Now, when you share your discounts, sales, promos, and well-crafted content online, your followers will see something familiar.

The more you can create an ecosystem of content and relevant imagery that works together, the more you'll increase your brand awareness, engagement, leads, and sales.

4. Host an in-store or virtual event.

If you can swing an in-store event with proper social distancing protocols in place, it can be a jolly way to get people into your business. You can offer refreshments, entertainment, and private shopping experiences to make your customers feel special.

Now, I predict we'll see fewer in-store gatherings this year, but that doesn't mean you can't make events part of your seasonal marketing strategy.

Think about how you can tie your product or service into the event. What about a virtual wine night with a highlight of your three most popular gifts? Or an interactive kids' party that shows them how to make presents using your products?

Use your imagination, and utilize a free tool like Facebook Live or a Facebook Group to host your online event. Before the party, you can email your subscribers invitations, share the news on social media, and tell people about it on your website.

There's no doubt the holiday season is going to be different this year. When you're considering how to increase holiday sales, it's essential to use empathetic marketing techniques to connect with your audience in an authentic way.

Also, it's important to reassure people you're taking the necessary COVID-19 precautions, whether that's cleaning your store a certain number of times per day or sanitizing shipments before they go out.

By tailoring your seasonal marketing strategy to fit people's new habits and preferences, you'll be set up for success now and throughout 2021.

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