do you have any tips for trying to convince non-larries of the truth?
Not really tbh. It's very difficult to convince anyone to stop believing in something that they hold to be true, whether it's a belief or lack thereof. This goes for you, me, and everyone. Most people in debates don't listen to the other party and instead try to think up a counterpoint to whatever their argument is. Each person is already fully convinced of what they believe to be true or not true.
The thing that a lot of antis fall victim to is something called slothful induction:
"Slothful induction, also called appeal to coincidence, is a fallacy in which an inductive argument is denied its proper conclusion, despite strong evidence for inference."
This means that they write anything and everything off as mere coincidence, and they don't consider the probability of certain coincidences being more or less likely to happen. Basically, whether "larry is real" isn't a question so much of "is it a fact" but moreso a question of "Is it more or less likely?" and also "How much more or less likely is it?".
Take for example the blue bandana project theory.
The first project was for wearing certain-colored clothing. Obviously this would not be easy for the members of 1D to participate in as they'd have to wear the same colored clothing at every concert, but then the project was changed to bandanas.
It's unclear exactly how popular this project was, but I know it was popular enough for 1D to take notice of fans doing it.
(Harry is wearing red, green, and blue in the first image; it is unclear why, but my hypothesis was that he was just given them and wanted to support the project or let people know that he knew of it)
Anyway, he was first spotted wearing a dark blue bandana in August 2014, and he wore it at the concert that night too, a little after the project was started [it was started for the WWA tour as far as I know, and the WWA tour went from April to October 2014 (and the project continued on into the OTRA tour in 2015)]:
He purchased the bandana while in Nashville at Imogene + Willie's, a couple days before the concert in Houston. Imogene + Willie's is like a gift shop, and they sell a variety of things. They sell 11 different bandanas, and the one Harry decided to purchase was the dark blue one, which matches the color of Louis's microphone and the color for the Bandana project that's meant to state that you're a 'Louis girl'.
Here is the link to the bandanas listed on the website.
He still wears that same bandana to this day:
And sometimes this one from another brand:
He doesn't wear bandanas super often, but when he does, it is, like, 90% of the time these dark blue ones. He's worn this red one too for instance:
So, if you want to actually figure out the mathematical probability of this being a coincidence, you would, first of all, have to do a lot more digging and researching than I did just now lol.
Secondly, you'd have to ask some questions. Here are some off the top of my head:
• What exact date did the Bandana Project start?
• How popular was the Bandana Project? To figure this out, you'll have to ask a set of questions: 1. Did #BandanaProject ever trend and, if so, when? 2. How many tweets were there from the time it started to the time, say, 1D's hiatus started? 3. Were there ever many signs related to the Bandana Project at concerts which the members of 1D could have seen, and, if so, how many instances of this can you find on video or in pictures? 4. In footage from the WWA tour and the OTRA tour, how many people on average can you see wearing the specific-colored bandanas?
• How many times did it seem like the members of 1D knew of the project -- as in, exactly how many times did they insinuate it by either wearing a colored bandana or by acknowledging it in some way, shape, or form?
• How many times has Harry worn a bandana of any color since the Bandana Project started up until now?
• How many times has Harry worn a dark blue bandana since the start of the Bandana Project in comparison to how many times he's worn any other color since the start of the Bandana Project? Calculate the exact ratio.
To answer all of those questions would actually take a fuck-ton of research that I'm not prepared to do as of now. But, if you were able to get conclusive answers to these questions with a huge amount of evidence and if you didn't go into it with bias but a desire to figure out whether this theory holds up or not regardless of your identity as an anti, larrie, or neutral, then you could go on to calculate the probability of it all being a coincidence or not. You would have to figure out exact numbers from the answers to the questions above.
There are more questions we need to consider, and probably some I haven't even thought of. One such would be: Harry has worn bandanas before the Bandana Project started, but how many of them were blue or dark blue as opposed to any other color, and how many of the bandanas that he has worn after the Bandana Project were dark blue as opposed to any other color? Calculate the exact difference/ratio of the before and the after.
You have to think like an anti too if you want to figure this out, because you need to go in with the mindset of actually trying to debunk the theory rather than prove it, because, if you're trying to prove it, it's a lot easier for a ton of bias to slip in, like ignoring contradicting evidence.
If you're ever going to try to do something like this, just know you will have to spend weeks to even months compiling research. It may not seem like it would take that much time, but... if you really wanted to know the exact probability of it being a coincidence vs. not being a coincidence, you would have to sift through so many tweets, videos, posts, articles, reverse-image-searching for exact dates, or whatever else you can think of to find as much information as you can just in order to get exact or as nearly-exact-as-you-can numbers. Only then could you actually prove anything, like, actually scientifically. Even then, an opposing party in a debate will not take one instance of something being more likely to not be a coincidence rather than to be one as enough sufficient evidence to conclude a wider statement such as "Harry and Louis are in a secret relationship." If we wanted to once and for all prove this, I'm pretty sure it would take actual years to do so, as there is 13 years worth of stuff to go through. You would have to sift through masterposts and gather only what you think could be hard/concrete evidence, and then for each of those pieces of evidence you would have to do exactly what I just went over that you'd have to do with the Bandana Project. You would have to take a logic class and understand mathematical probability, and you would have to do checks to see how valid your math/logic is, and you would have to potentially consult someone to check for bias or to see if you might have forgotten to ask yourself a question that could potentially support the other case.
Basically you would have to employ the scientific method. This, again, could take years.
That's all I'm saying because it truly is extremely difficult to prove anything in a debate unless you have, like, actual statistics to go based on, which... we don't have since no one has put in the extensive effort it would take to do so just yet.
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