#and which should be bw vs color

[theshijlegacy]

Old vs. New UI

(forgive my wacky edited bits & boxes, had to cover up mails in the first shot and then make the second match)

This is my #1 complaint with 7.0 (so far).  The bright blue outline of every occupied toolbar space is incredibly distracting, making it very hard to focus on what I’m doing, especially in dimly lit areas.  And it makes the buttons look square - even though I don’t think they are - which looks odd in a way I can’t quite describe, but adds to the “off” feeling of the whole thing. 

I didn’t mind seeing different-colored outlines on the buttons containing items I dragged to the toolbars, since that differentiated them from actual abilities.   (Those outlines are also brighter, but only slightly.  Still not great but not as bad as the rest.)

The UI editor gave us the option to disable the backgrounds on all the toolbars so we could lose the dark blue background and have give all the buttons a sort of “floating” effect with the gray outlines - which I love the look of.  And now we have the stupid bright blue outlines either way.

Even the text on the clock, stronghold toolbar, and character/companion portraits looks too bright - the font and shadow/bloom area remained the same size, but changing the color of the text and shadow/bloom from pale blue on medium blue to white on black makes it stick out too much.  Same issue for the Edit Mode button, even though all that got was a shadow/bloom color change from medium green to black.  (The effect looks a lot like when I’ve tried to use an image editor to sharpen something but went a little too far.)  The shadow/bloom of the text for % Completion, health, and energy actually is lighter and makes their corresponding bars seem brighter as well. 

Multiply these complains x100 for the Inventory window.

I don’t want a “sleek, modern” interface.  It doesn’t fit this game.  I’m OK with having it as a choice for those who want/need a high contrast UI, but PLEASE BW give us an option resembling the old look!  The UI is there 90%+ of the time and should be something that fits in seamlessly with the gameplay, not something that distracts from it.

I’ve been subscribed continuously since launch (for the pedants, it’s actually been since day 1 of early access), and this is the first time I’ve been bummed at the idea of playing SWTOR.  Some past changes I’ve been less than excited about, or less than thrilled with, but I’ve never felt this sense of DREAD when I think about logging in. 

(Seems a bit ridiculous when I type it all out, but I’ve put a lot of time into this game and such visually unappealing changes are really ruining my experience.)

[kalosstarters]

A long and messy DP commentary (you’re welcome)

Like I said earlier, yesterday I finished my dp rewatch and here’s a few (1000+ words of) thoughts (warning: opinions):

The second watch definitely made me appreciate certain aspects of this series more. Dawn’s development is awesome and like I told my friend once, it probably makes more sense than May’s (as much as I do love May, the girl had a Lot of luck on her side). Dawn already knew a thing or two about ‘mons and coordinating once she left to her journey thanks to her mom, yet she had her own hiccups. She had to learn to lose and how to overcome it, and she did! Her friends seemed worried after she lost in the grand festival finals but she seemed genuinely fine and happy for Zoey. That was very different from the Dawn who lost her first contest.

Speaking of Zoey, appealshipping is a criminally underrated ship. I mean, people ship ikari (now, I have to mention I used to ship them too thanks to a couple of well written fics, but boi, I do hate the canon Paul) based on like 2-3 interactions in the entire series. Meanwhile, Zoey supports Dawn basically from the moment they meet and they’re an epitome of a wholesome, healthy relationship (of any kind you want). Zoey seemed to always be there for her when Dawn had her lowest lows and she gave her some of the most valuable advice that she needed to overcome her slumps.

Cris would probably kill me if I didn’t mention Piplup, and I have to say that I too did get more fond of the blue penguin too :3 Piplup seemed to be even more visible than Pikachu most episodes and I love how colorful, goofy personality he has. And if you need a reaction pic, there’s no face that Piplup hasn’t ever made :’D And Dawn and Piplup’s bond is awesome too, the way Piplup is very enthusiastic about cheering Dawn up when she’s having a bad moment, how Piplup doesn’t want to evolve because he wants to protect Dawn the way he is, etc, etc. (If you want an essay on this topic, ask @criis55 / piplupsbubbles)

Piplup also reminds me that I actually really enjoy the voice acting in the English dub of DP! We were always a bit disappointed when we couldn’t find the English version of the episode on the site we were watching dp from because we wanted to hear the iconic sounds like ‘pippippip’ or ‘starrrravia’. And even Ash, Brock and TR’s new voices grew on us despite us being kinda iffy towards them in the battle frontier arc (I think it also proves that the voice actors developed as time passed).

I also have to admit that in general DP felt more ‘balanced’ than OS (esp Johto era) and AG. What I mean with this is that it had less episodes that felt like fillers (and even the fillers it had were often p fun and showed some character development instead of being all about tr stealing mons and the character of the day helping out). Contests also were very good additions (just like in AG) so we had more to look forward to than just Ash’s gym battles. The rivals/friends showed up frequently unlike in some other seasons where we meet them just before the league (I always hate it when that happens) and it felt like Dawn and Ash had an equal amount of focus. I also like that this season still has a clear continuity which starts to change a bit in BW and more drastically in XY that has almost no past references.

Speaking of rivals, I do have to talk about Paul a bit more too. I already said I hate him. But he’s still a good rival to Ash because he’s someone you /really/ want Ash to win. And even though I was occasionally annoyed that adults like Cynthia never really called Paul out (because his behavior especially towards Chimchar /was/ abusive, there’s no way around it) I do like that Ash ends up teaching him a lesson or two and he already seems a bit nicer towards his ‘mons at the end of the series.

I already mentioned this in a post few months ago, but anyway: I know many people enjoy DP for its seriousness/darkness (bc it’s true that the ‘dark arc’ is darker than in the previous seasons) but if I’m honest, that part isn’t my cup of tea. I can’t really even explain why, that’s just how I roll. I personally just liked the funny and chill parts more, which probably explains why I also enjoy S&M.

The league, Wallace Cup and Grand Festival were all enjoyable! If you ignore Ash’s last league battle (which you should bc it’s BS. They literally had to bring that guy with 6 legendaries so Ash wouldn’t have a chance to win. I still think the best possible development for Ash would have been to win this league and give the anime a new protagonist, but that’s not what happened and many were frustrated with the ‘weaker’ Ash in BW. But that’s a whole different story…) this league is definitely among my top 3 because it felt like despite the loss Ash was kind of a moral winner there. Ash vs Paul is obviously an awesome battle and the bits with Conway (can’t believe I only mention him now) were hilarious.

This text is already way too long but I’m still quickly gonna mention that I loved the teams of basically all 3 main characters (gliscor, buizel, happiny and croagunk some of my personal favorites) and I also liked that Brock found his true calling in the end! I think he’s gonna make an awesome doctor and I wish we had seen more of that serious side of him instead of the writers only making him see the ladies. But hey, can’t have everything.

Overall, DP was a really fun ride and I would definitely recommend it to everyone who considers watching the older seasons of poke/ani!

[reylocore]

hey! /post/613218586761347072/the-life-force-of-your-bond-a-dyad-in-the-force - this gifset you made is so beautiful and i was wondering if you know about any good tutorials on how to achieve this merged scenes effect? don't worry i don't intend to copy you haha thank you

hiii! i couldnt find any tutorials that explain the whole specific process for this kind of silhouette gifs BUT thats okay bc im making one myself :-) thank you sm for the sweet compliment, this whole concept/idea doesnt belong to me and im v happy if others can get inspired by the things i post tho so no problems whatsoever there :*

that said, the scenes you pick are VERY important and they must have a silhouette of your main subject vs a bright-solid background, like rey here: 

im going to assume you already know how to make gifs, but in case you dont, heres a great tutorial to get you started 🌟

so, after you’ve made and sharpened your gif, you should be seeing something like this:

which means its time to get to the coloring. i personally applied my own psd+bw gradient but i know theres ppl who like to do everything from scratch so do whatever you’re most comfortable w! heres my result: 

not very silhouette-like, right? which is why i also added 2 layers of selective color, both of them to enhance the blacks/shadows of the scene:

we’re done, its time to make the one thats going on top of it (in my case its kylo from tfa), HOWEVER dont sharpen it nor add any coloring just yet! 

click your smart object layer and drag it on the base gif:

then, set the layer as ‘lighten’:

notice how parts of the gif can still be seen? keep the layer selected and click on the layer mask button:

now you can delete the extra parts w the eraser (preferably set on soft brush):

(remember that if you’ve accidentally erased too much you can fix it by using the paint tool anytime, but make sure the mask is selected otherwise it wont work)

select the layer (not the mask), sharpen the 2nd gif as well and congrats bc its all over ^^

my final result: 

i hope this was somewhat easy to understand, if you have more questions im always here to answer and discuss, have a wonderful day 💖💖💖

[brontes]

I hate to even weigh in on the over saturated creators vs reblogs discussion, but nobody else seems to be bringing this up so I’m here to say that I would bet good solid money on at least part of the like to reblog ratio problem being the prevalence of blogs that are focused on maintaining one single aesthetic (pale/bw, bw, color/saturated, dark, etc). Back in the day that wasn’t such a big thing, esp among fandom blogs, so people just kinda reblogged the things that they liked, but now even if someone likes something, even if they think it’s pretty on its own, it might not fit into the exact aesthetic they are trying to cultivate so...no reblog.

Which is all to say, do what you want. If the experience of this website is made better for you by running aesthetic specific blogs, go for it. But creators who participate in that and then complain about the like to reblog ratio should be at least aware that it is a factor in causing that ratio.

[sugar-petals]

do you make your own headers and covers for your stories? if so then hooowww teach me your ways!

First things first I’m an amateur, graphic designer enfant terrible without professional editing tools. But scarcity makes you creative so i developed some principles to abide by. If you love making things look appetizing stick around, I try my best to delineate some tricks. 

banners: you might think not too large/too slim makes the difference, however to me it’s secondary. what matters more is whether you have a golden ratio and interesting, balanced distribution of objects. what promises safety is pleasant to the eye. what is dangerous will unsettle and dynamize. asymmetry is essential in either case. it’s natural, symmetry will bore since it doesn’t make the glance roam. click through the a-z series, you can see how it plays out there. i don’t have a set height, the visual focus of the image and given resolution will tell me where to cut.

faces attract the eye, but they’re hard to format. so i often pick another type of eyecatcher which is food. that means aphrodisiacs for smut posts. i have a sweet tooth so my schtick is picking an image of dessert as of recently. fruit are gratuitious. they have strong color, variety, notable shapes. and again: safety factor. 

when cropping, i make sure to have objects in halves and quarters present, not just whole fruit for instance. what you don’t see is the most thrilling part, it’s like clothing. 

also: it needs interesting lights and shadows, more 3D bits.

if i do want a face i rotate by 90° to have like a horizontal torso. that also leaves space for a title font in the middle because the face and focal point is at the side of the banner. 

note the placement and striking character of g and t. that is deliberate. letters are naughty folks if you want them to be. yes, i also like disturbingly bright red. 

don’t be afraid to let font cut at the side of the image if you have to, or it makes the image more vivid. 

something about the ethics here. when it’s a face, you won’t see someone who is supposed to be y/n. the reader insert has to be as ambiguous as possible. i’d rather have bts featured 😊

you can google up transparent vectors to include shapes, silhouettes, things that fit the theme of the post.

a thin white line as a frame can look classy. the sublime series has that one. things overlapping with the frame give you more 3D layer effects.

avoid sepia, bw makes for better contrast with fonts.

you can try to capture the atmosphere of the fic with color (disturbingly bright red is always good when you write bdsm er this is my conviction but its on shaky grounds). boss witch always had a greenish, eerie banner. trophy boyfriend has classy gold and brown. it mirrors a sense of the environment.

an object from the fic can be a good banner. boss witch has the abandoned roller coaster, trophy boyfriend the ridiculously embellished CEO desk.

think about how your banner will look like on your theme. the more consistent your color palette, the more it’ll fit together harmoniously. also: tumblr’s blue. underestimated factor. i stay away from orange because of it, the contrast hurts even more than the disturbingly bright red.

separators: a different color gradient of the original image always brings visual closure to me at the bottom of a post. other separators that are much thinner should be more innocuous, but maybe have a matching gradient. always crop the separators from the original image because of that, no matter how slim they are. saves time, too.

any cropping i do with SnapNDrag, it gives me a whole library of screenshots, other than that it can’t do other things i need for editing so i do the rest with previewing the image on mac where i can also place the text.

careful with copyright, the images are best when wallpapers. also: bts’ photoshoots work. other than that, i consult with rubens for a fic aesthetic. careful with nudity and flesh-toned things there, tumblr might flag it big time. 

resizing works via mac, but befunky can do that as well. 

for resizing gifs, should you need them for a collage or something, ezgif has all the editing options you need. careful with the gif owners/makers, ask for permission. 

for collages, i throw images into befunky that gives me a grid. there’s not much more magic to it. i pay attention to whether the colors match in terms of cool and warm, bright VS muted, and so on. the balance of where objects are located in the individual grid creates a lot of balance or tells a story, not putting them into the center aids that effect.

for fonts: dafont helps. very recommendable. great free fonts all over the place.

if all else fails use disturbingly bright red ✊🔴

[pkmnjesus]

P J’s ranking of Pokémon movies (Ranked #15-11)

                                                     *DISCLAIMER REGARDING MY RANKINGS*

#15 Pokémon the Movie: Diancie and the Cocoon of Destruction (Original Japanese title: Pokémon the Movie XY: The Cocoon of Destruction and Diancie) *17th Pokémon movie*

Personal thoughts and why you should watch this movie: Ahh pretty little princess Diance, and its Carbink servants really make the movie shine (literally and metaphorically). But the biggest shine in this movie for me were the 3 antagonist parties hot-potato kidnapping Diance in hopes to get some of its beautiful diamonds it can produce. It was an evil treasure hunt, and I even thought that the father-daughter duo were the good guys. The ending credits scene pretty much redeemed all of them away from being thieves after failing to get the diamonds. This movie also made me realize how truly beautiful Xerneas really is how destructively evil Yveltal is (my favorite Kalos legendary). If you’ve seen the epilogue episode to XY&Z, this is basically an extended version of that tale with a more modern setting in Ash’s time. Mega Diance tho! The save at the end was awesome. I actually still have the promotional GameStop code for this movie’s Diance tucked away in somewhere in my 3DS stash. This movie does have a special prologue so check that out if I want to know more on why Diance got lost in the first place.

#14 Pokémon the Movie: Genesect and the Legend Awakened (Original Japanese title: Pocket Monsters Best Wishes! the Movie - ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens) *16th Pokémon movie*

Personal thoughts and why you should watch this movie: My favorite BW movie! I even have this on DVD...my dream match-up between Mewtwo vs. Genesect have been fulfilled, and I LOVE the Genesect army with the shiny as their leader. There was the one cute Genesect that just wanted to find its home and didn’t really want to fight with humans. I loved the theme the Genesect were trying to tell about being rejected, and trying to find their place in society. The Mewtwo in this movie (which I didn’t really have a problem with being a different Mewtwo from the first movie) shared the same experiences, but doesn’t want to join the army because of their forceful aggression towards others. This movie also featured mega evolution for the first time ever with Mega Mewtwo Y. AND, seeing Ash’s Charzard return to the big screen along with the aid of Iris’s Dragonite WERE HYPE. I liked the credits scene too because it served as a proper farewell to the entire BW cast, since the Decolore arc didn’t really feature any of them. I would definitely recommend seeing the special prologue to the movie featuring Virgil and his encounter with Mewtwo.

#13 Pokémon Ranger and the Temple of the Sea (Original Japanese title: Pocket Monsters Advanced Generation the Movie - Pokémon Ranger and the Prince of the Sea: Manaphy; a.k.a., The Pokémon Ranger and The Prince of the Sea) *9th Pokémon movie*

Personal thoughts and why you should watch this movie: Mama May and Manaphy’s relationship is just precious <3 and Ash literally drowned in this movie for the greater good but was revived thanks to Manaphy. This was honestly the best “Ash almost dies” scene among all the movies because he was pretty athletic moving and jumping around while carrying a heavy object and then holding his breath underwater for who knows how long. This movie also made me want to play the Pokémon Ranger game thanks to Jack Walkers’s captures.The way he does it is really cool, although his device looks like a  Beyblade meets Digimon Frontier’s DigiCode crossover. It really does if you’ve seen it! Oh yeah WE HAVE A BEARDED PIRATE AS AN ANTAGONIST HOW AWESOME IS THAT??? ...with a bunch of Team Aqua rejects lol, but it’s nice to see a sort-of goofy antagonist for a change instead of the always serious villain that just wants to rule the world or something.

#12 Pokémon the Movie: Volcanion and the Mechanical Marvel (Original Japanese title: Pokémon the Movie XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna) *19th Pokémon movie*

Personal thoughts and why you should watch this movie: This is my favorite XY movie for many reasons! Azoth Kingdom’s mechanical beauty, Magearna and Volcanion’s close relationship, both of their close call deaths, and the “Mega Wave” Pokémon abuse shown throughout the movie was just ruthless and a cheap way to steroid up your Pokémon. This was the Mega Evolution mania movie thanks to the Mega Wave jewel staff. The antagonist Alva had a pretty cool design, and the way he fires his missiles are pretty rad. But that failed jet pack escape he did in the end made me laugh. Volcanion’s acceptance of humans took a while to progress, and I’m really glad that Ash wasn’t stuck to it in the entire movie. Seeing Mageana’s original colors, purpose, and backstory is a tale you definitely need to watch yourself! The best part of the movie for me is when they assaulted the floating castle (a bit similar to movie 14) and everyone’s Pokémon kicked butt including Ash-Greninja and Squishy/Puni-chan’s complete form with the epic save!

#11 Pokémon: Jirachi: Wish Maker (Original Japanese title: Pocket Monsters Advanced Generation the Movie - Wishing Star of the Seven Nights: Jirachi; a.k.a., Wishing Star of the Seven Nights) *6th Pokémon movie*

Personal thoughts and why you should watch this movie: This movie follows a seven day format following the “Millennium Comet”. I personally loved this movie because it gave Max center spotlight (which we barely get in the main-core anime). His love and care for Jirachi was cute and innocent, but when they had to say goodbye it actually made me cry watching it the first time. In my opinion, this was sadder than May’s goodbye to Manaphy in movie 9...I mean think about the plot IT WILL BE ASLEEP FOR ANOTHER 1,000 YEARS FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! Pretty sure Max will be long gone once Jirachi reawakens :( Butler’s story was interesting as well, from becoming a former Team Magma scientist to a mad magician trying to get Jirachi’s powers to make an articifical Groudon. Of course like most movie villains, he truned good once he saw the destruction his Groudon was causing. I did find the Groudon weird looking with its jelly sucking tentacle powers (yeah sounds weird), but when Jirachi hit the Doom Desire on it BAM! Ya done son. And yes, I have the same questions as everybody else...what did May wish for with the Wishmaker she had???

All movie ranking posts: 20-16 | 15-11 | 10-6 | Top 5

[mandl27]

On Pokémon, 2D Sprites, 3D Models, and the Expressivism Within

I already posted this on Twitter, but I'll say it here too.

As cited by Dr. Lava, Masuda objected to the series transitioning to 3D because he felt having multiple (2D) sprite artists allowed for far greater individuality and expressivism than any 3D models could produce. After seeing that, I realized I should put my feelings on this whole "2D vs 3D" debate on virtual paper instead of scatter-shot across multiple Discord servers.

Filed under "Masuda has no idea what the fuck he's doing".

The argument of personality with 2D sprites hinges on the idea that sprites change regularly. As a handy counterargument, a number of Pokémon recycled their sprites from DPP/HGSS through B2W2.

A few people in replies to OP noted that Stadium/Colo/PBR models (also all recycled, though PBR retextured most of them) were more expressive than the relatively bland animations XY models have. That's true, and this is where I dive a bit into personal opinion.

To me, Stadium's exaggerated animations, and to a greater extent BW's exaggerated sprite tweens, come off as stilted and unnatural. I'm a firm believer in the notion that idle loops /should/ be simple and bland. Floatzel and Misdreavus are two BW sprites that come to mind.

In BW's defense, it doesn't have unique attack animations like the 3D games do, so it was all or nothing there. And you definitely won't find me defending the Sky Battle-mandated "flying T pose" idles, like Xatu and Swellow. Charizard et al are on thin ice.

Returning to objectivity here, 3D is a far more versatile space than 2D. Long-standing RPG concepts like a free camera only entered Pokémon as Game Freak let go of their death grip on a 2D presentation. This grip can still be felt in things like XY/SM's infamous outlines.

Bottom line, wanting personality and expression in your graphics is a noble goal. But claiming that multiple artists is the cause of that shows a dangerous lack of understanding game art. It's this kind of mentality that's made GF appear incompetent in today's game world.

That's an argument by itself, but when discussing it with others I remembered a personal project of mine. I'd been wanting to recolor mainline sprites to use Home palettes, primarily to liven up some of the duller palettes (see: most Hoenn mon in gen 5) but also as an exercise in learning how Pokémon sprite palettes work. I then added the following:

Addendum I just thought about: Pokémon as a franchise really has two sets of palettes now. One palette is used in mainline and Sugimori's concept art. The other is used literally everywhere else (anime, all spinoffs since gen 4, most gen 4-5 sprites).

That second palette is much more vivid than the first, which contributes a lot to the lifeless feel of XY models. Even the game's color palette is conspiring against them. Compare Sugimori's art of Lucario and Charizard to their Home renders. They're even in the same poses.

And ultimately, these models being near-identical in geometry to XY+'s shoots Masuda's entire argument in the foot. Models /can/ be expressive. Models /can/ be colorful. It just requires a capable 3D team, which I have reason to feel Game Freak lacks.

(Thread source)

[365footballorg-blog]

Warshaw: Handicapping the 2018 MLS Western Conference playoff race

USA Today Images

September 14, 201810:10AM EDT

Six weeks left in the regular season. The playoff push is fully initiated. Andrew Wiebe covered the biggest race in the East on Thursday. Let’s take a look at the odds over in the West.

The playoff line in the Western Conference currently resides at 41 points, one point above seventh-place Vancouver.

You know how you’ve looked at your team’s upcoming schedule to calculate probably points? Well, players do it, too. They know what’s ahead and the mountain – or relative mole hill – they have to climb.

Methodology

If I put my player hat on and look at the schedule, here’s how I would view each game, independent on what team I’m playing for:

Consider it an L

Marked in red below

at Atlanta

at LAFC

at Red Bulls

at Dallas

at Sporting KC

at Seattle

at Portland

at NYCFC

Not easy, but should go for the points

Marked in blue below

at New England

at Colorado

at Minnesota

Home vs RSL

Home vs LA Galaxy

Home vs Philadelphia

Home vs Vancouver

Home vs D.C. United

Tough but doable

Marked in yellow below

at Columbus

at Montreal

at LA Galaxy

at Philadelphia

at D.C. United

at Toronto FC

at Vancouver

at RSL

Home vs Portland

Home vs Seattle

Home vs Sporting KC

Home vs LAFC

Home vs Columbus

Home vs FC Dallas

Home vs NY Red Bulls

Home vs NYCFC

Home vs Toronto FC

Home vs Atlanta

Gotta get ‘em

Marked in green below

at San Jose

at Chicago

at Orlando

at Houston

Home vs Chicago

Home vs Orlando

Home vs San Jose

Home vs New England

Home vs Minnesota

Home vs Montreal

Home vs Houston

Home vs Colorado

Using those, we can build a general probability of each team making the playoffs. I’ve also included the FiveThirtyEight projections.

My “BW Probabilities” are based on four factors:

Difficulty of remaining schedule

Form

Injuries, suspensions, any bubbling issues

Overall team quality

Dallas aren’t really on the bubble. I just personally don’t like saying teams are a lock if they aren’t actually a lock. If NYCFC can go on a 1-win-in-8-match run, it can happen to anyone. (I’m trying not to bring up Dallas’s 2017 collapse, which fully implanted the “Well, anything actually can happen” seed flowering here.) That said, Dallas are as close to clinched as a team can be.

Current points: 49, eight above the line

BW probability: 95%*

538 probability: 99%

Remaining schedule: Columbus, @Vancouver, @Portland, Orlando, @D.C. United, Sporting KC, @Colorado,

Recent form: L-W-D-L-W

*NOTE: I’m not 99% confident in anything in life

Sporting KC

Same as Dallas: Sporting KC are clinched as clinched can be … without being clinched.

Current points: 48, seven above the line

BW probability: 95%

538 probability: 99%

Remaining schedule: @San Jose, @Philadelphia, Real Salt Lake, LA Galaxy, @Vancouver, @FC Dallas, LAFC

Recent form: W-W-W-L-W

LAFC have a major question to answer with how they replace Laurent Ciman: aggressive, athletic, technical center backs don’t grow on trees, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team regress slightly. But they also have the easiest remaining schedule. They could — probably should — win the next six games. If you’re in a pool to pick the top seed in the West, I’d go with LAFC right now.

Current points: 46, five above the line

BW probability: 95% **

538 probability: 98%

Remaining schedule: New England, San Jose, @Chicago, @Colorado, Houston, Vancouver, @Sporting KC

Recent form: L-W-W-D-W

Real Salt Lake

RSL haven’t lost more than two in a row all year and haven’t gone more than three in a row without winning this season. And they look better now than they have all year; they’ve been great to watch lately. But I’d be lying/wimping out if I said I fully trust them. We could try to break down RSL’s level, but the numbers tell the clearest story: They win at home (10-1-3) and lose on the road (3-9-2). RSL finish with four away from home, plus Portland at Rio Tinto wedged in there, so they could conceivably lose all five of those final games. If I had more faith in Vancouver or the Galaxy I would put RSL’s percentage lower. RSL will probably get in … but I wouldn’t take it for granted yet just yet.

Current points: 44, three above the line

BW probability: 65%

538 probability: 85%

Remaining schedule: Minnesota, @Atlanta, @Sporting KC, Portland, @New England, @Portland

Recent form: D-L-W-W-W

Portland have a game in hand on RSL, thus the higher percentage. I realize Portland haven’t exactly been rock solid lately, losing four in a row last month. But I trust Portland in a do-or-die game if it were to come to that, given Portland have the best trump card if they ever really need points — fully commit to the sit-and-counter philosophy nobody could beat over their 15-game unbeaten run.

Current points: 44, three above the line

BW probability: 70%

538 probability: 87%

Remaining schedule: @Houston, Columbus, @Minnesota, FC Dallas, @Real Salt Lake, Real Salt Lake, @Vancouver

Recent form: L-L-W-D-W

The game against Vancouver on Saturday (10pm ET | TSN — Full TV & streaming info) is big – for everything Seattle have accomplished, their Cascadia neighbor could knock them below the playoff line again. But that final run is just so cushy. It’s tough to imagine the Sounders don’t take nine points in there, and nine points would likely get the job done.

Current points: 41, just above the line

BW probability: 88%

538 probability: 91%

Remaining schedule: @Vancouver, Philadelphia, @LA Galaxy, Colorado, Houston, @Orlando, @Houston, San Jose

Recent form: W-W-W-W-W etc. etc. … If you haven’t heard, Seattle are on the longest win streak since shootouts were a thing.

Most have already written Vancouver off, but the Whitecaps refuse to go quietly. They deserve a ton of credit for it. But look at that schedule …

I would like to see Alphonso Davies make a playoff run before he departs for Bayern, but it would take a ridiculous run for the ‘Caps to get there.

Current points: 40, one below the line

BW probability: 15%

538 probability: 29%

Remaining schedule: Seattle, FC Dallas, @LA Galaxy, @Toronto FC, Sporting KC, @LAFC, Portland

Recent form: D-W-D-W-W

I’m giving the Galaxy the inverse of RSL’s probability. I see one slot coming down to either of those two clubs (since Vancouver has such a tough schedule). With RSL sitting on 44 points, the Galaxy need to make up six points + the six we’re assuming Mike Petke’s group will add (win vs. Minnesota + win vs. NE or multiple draws) from their remaining games, for a total of at least 12 points. Do the Galaxy have four wins in them?

If you say no, I think you’re crazy. If Zlatan, Gio, Jona et al. decide their careers/legacies are on the line, they could kick into a gear that any team would struggle to handle. Yet there’s this: 

That got left on the cutting room floor. Here’s what Schmid said about that: “I think probably this weekend you’re going to see nine guys behind the ball and one center forward.” https://t.co/e9lAbYgj9P

— Jeff Carlisle (@JeffreyCarlisle) September 13, 2018

I’m somewhat surprised to hear the Galaxy may try to defend deep to solidify the defense, but I can’t blame them for it. Can the Galaxy make up the points? For sure. Will they? I’m keeping my money in my pocket.

Current points: 38, three points below the line

BW probability: 35%

538 probability: 11%

Remaining schedule: @Toronto FC, Seattle, Vancouver, @Sporting KC, @Minnesota, Houston

Recent form: D-D-L-D-L

Current points: 29, 12 points below the line

BW probability: If the computer model says you’re projection is below 1% …

538 probability: <1%

Current points: 24, 17 points below the line

538 probability: <1%

San Jose were mathematically eliminated from playoff competition on September 2.

Series: 

Topics: 

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Warshaw: Handicapping the 2018 MLS Western Conference playoff race was originally published on 365 Football

[365footballorg-blog]

Armchair Analyst: Everything you need to know heading into MLS Week 5

March 30, 201812:50PM EDT

Let’s just jump directly into it, shall we?

FRIDAY’S GAME

Toronto FC vs. Real Salt Lake

8 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

The Reds have played the regular season to this point in third gear at best. With the home leg against Club América looming on Tuesday, they might stay stuck in third for this one as well. Greg Vanney will have to weigh the need to go full-throttle for three MLS points vs. the desire to keep a few things back from los Aguilas scouts (who are myriad and sundry and will be on hand) and to keep his whole lineup fresh.

What we do know is that TFC will choose between a 3-5-2 and a 4-4-2 diamond.

As for RSL, I have a simple request: Please get your center forward some shots. Luis Silva and Alfredo Ortuño have combined for four shots in three games, which is miserable and speaks to the level of dislocation that’s plagued this team’s attack to start the season. No matter the personnel, RSL haven’t been able to establish any sort of consistent attacking rhythm through 270 minutes. They’ve got to at least attempt to do so at BMO.

Sam Stejskal wrote about how TFC & RBNY are balancing their CCL responsibilities against their MLS schedules. Worth a read.

SATURDAY’S SLATE

Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls

1 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

It seems like this could be the week that the Purple Lions inch closer toward what we thought they’d be in terms of personnel. There are still a couple of worries – Jonathan Spector’s concussion being one, Uri Rosell’s overall fitness being another – but in general we should be past the “everybody’s hurt and we’re playing with a raft of backups” part of the season. It’s also their third home game in four, and since they’ve picked up just one of nine available points so far, central Florida will inch closer to panic mode if there’s not a mark in the W column soon.

Against the Red Bulls, though? Good luck. They’re hammering teams so far:

Armchair Analyst: How does BW freaking P, of all people, get loose on a set piece? Watch his starting point (and don’t fall for the step-over) #NYvMINpic.twitter.com/fTUxVtEjuj

— Matthew Doyle (@MattDoyle76) March 25, 2018

Like TFC, with CCL semis looming they’ll likely want to keep a few regulars back and might toy around with their tactics and formation in order to throw off the Chivas scouts. So far this season, doing that hasn’t mattered much – the backups have RBNY 2-1-0 in the league with seven goals scored and just one conceded.

Columbus Crew SC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps

3 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

Columbus beat D.C. convincingly last week, winning 3-1. And veteran Ricardo Clark did a nice job of filling in for Wil Trapp, even picking up a goal along the way.

But as well as Clark played, the absence of Trapp was both noted and notable. It’s his distribution from deep that gives Columbus their form:

Wil Trapp’s passing map vs. MTL on March 10, 2018 | MLSsoccer.com

Notice how deep Trapp drops, and how he spreads the ball diagonally? As Thierry Henry once said, “Wil Trapp is the key of that team … bringing the ball out of the back, so [Federico] Higuain doesn’t have to drop and get the ball. He will get it in good positions because Wil Trapp does his job. He brings the ball out for them and it’s difficult to stop.”

Here is Clark’s passing map against United:

Ricardo Clark’s passing map vs. DC on March 24, 2018 | MLSsoccer.com

Not a bad game at all, but not dynamic in possession either. If you’re wondering why Columbus looked a little clunkier than usual last week (and yes, it says plenty about a team that they can win 3-1 and still be regarded as “clunky”) there you go.

The ‘Caps will know this, and it doesn’t matter because no matter who’s out there in Crew SC colors, Vancouver will sit deep and counter. It’s what they do – this year as much as/more than ever:

A lot of this is probably game state, but Vancouver is sitting back even further this season than 2017. Their opponents are completing ~85% of their passes from run of play pic.twitter.com/2cSeuVpylj

— Kevin Minkus (@kevinminkus) March 23, 2018

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC

3 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

Zlatan is here for El Trafico, and the dude brought a freaking lion. I feel like that’s a statement of intent.

I also feel like any time the Galaxy turn the ball over, LAFC are going to unleash a five-pass counterattack right up the gut to punish the hosts. The Black & Gold have been well-drilled through two games, and ruthlessly opportunistic when there’s a pocket of space or a running lane.

Perry Kitchen will have to have a good day for the Galaxy. Defensively he’s been very good thus far, though probably a touch too prone to chase plays rather than protect. In this one he needs to protect the pocket of space directly in front of the backline for the express purpose of denying Carlos Vela meaningful possession.

I really recommend Paul Tenorio’s look at LAFC’s roster-building strategy.

Chicago Fire vs. Portland Timbers

6 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

Through three games Diego Valeri has no goals, no assists and only four shots. He’s created chances at a decent enough rate – six from open play, including one big chance. That’s not what he’s posted throughout his MLS career but it’s still better than just OK. It should be enough for the Timbers to be more dangerous than they have been.

What’s missing? Right now my early theory is twofold: First, they miss Darlington Nagbe’s ability to eliminate defenders off the dribble and shuttle the ball forward. Without that, Valeri is getting his touches deeper and with more defenders in front of him, which is not a great combo.

Second, up until last weekend against Dallas, Portland were playing higher up the pitch and trying to become a front-foot team, which just isn’t them. Doing so left gaps for both the Galaxy and Red Bulls to exploit in the first two weeks, and demanded more, defensively, than what Valeri or Fanendo Adi are capable of giving. So last weekend’s adjustment into a low-block 4-3-2-1 made sense.

As for the Fire, I think it’s fair to say they’ve looked like the weakest defensive team in the league thus far. Their wingers have not tracked back to help, their central defense has been a mess and Richard Sanchez has struggled in goal. If they play like they did two weeks ago at Minnesota United, they will be staring at an 0-3-0 start.

Minnesota United vs. Atlanta United

8 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

There will be focus on the “Rematch!” element of this game, and the elements element of this game, and pending arrivals for Minnesota and injury-list issues for Atlanta and so on and so forth.

But what it comes down to is this: MNUFC can not let Atlanta’s attackers receive the ball on the run. If you do that, you’re dead:

Armchair Analyst: Nobody loves running lanes the way Atlanta United loves running lanes. DC played themselves. pic.twitter.com/PkHhrnoi5d

— Matthew Doyle (@MattDoyle76) March 11, 2018

I suspect the game will be won or lost around that simple truth.

On the flip side, watch for MNUFC playmaker Miguel Ibarra to drift wide and create overloads with his wingers. If and when that happens, at least one Five Stripes center back will have to step way out into space off the backline of that 3-5-2 and try to make a play. Leandro Gonzalez Pirez is always happy to attempt that, but so far in 2018 his batting average is below what it was in 2017.

If I’m the Loons, I try to bait him out and then go at the space he vacates.

San Jose Earthquakes vs. NYCFC

8 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

This is probably the game I’m most looking forward to this weekend just because we’ve seen so little of the Quakes, but what we have seen has been so entertaining and promising. They’re playing a 4-4-2 that’s really more of a 4-2-2-2, and are doing so without what I’d consider a true playmaker (though Magnus Eriksson really can pass the hell out of the ball), and have scored five goals in two outings. Pretty, pretty good!

They’ve also conceded five in two outings, which is obviously not great. The issue has been one of communication between their deep-central midfield pairing of Anibal Godoy and Florian Jungwirth (who’ve struggled) and their fullbacks. A lack of connection between the defensive midfielders and the central defense allowed Kevin Molino to bag a brace from between the lines in Week 1, and a lack of any discernible defensive plan allowed Sporting KC to go to town for three goals in Week 3.

If the Quakes give NYCFC the same kind of space in Week 5, the Pigeons will put up three of their own. They have arguably been the league’s best team so far even with David Villa hurt.

Houston Dynamo vs. New England Revolution

8:30 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

This is how the Revs play:

Here’s the thing: Houston blitzed Atlanta United, the only high-pressing team they’ve faced this year, 4-0 way back in Week 1. But the Five Stripes are a different type of high-pressing team than the Revs, in that Atlanta really want possession and New England wanted/wants nothing to do with having the ball. Any time they forced a turnover out of NYCFC last week, they just went direct.

The Dynamo have to be prepared for exactly that. They’ll try to (and should) carry the game, and have the pieces – passers and attackers – to break down New England’s defense once the Revs are put on the back foot. But rocking them onto the back foot in the first place is going to be a legitimately difficult task, even at home and with a full roster of healthy players.

Sporting KC vs. D.C. United

8:30 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

Friendly reminder that Sporting have the most wide-open, high-scoring attack in the league this season and also the most vulnerable, error-prone defense. Their 9 goals scored leads MLS, and their 9 conceded is worst in MLS along with … D.C. United. There should be lots of goals in this one (an assumption that usually acts as the kiss of death in this league, but whatever).

Bobby Warshaw went into some depth in breaking down SKC’s defensive issues thus far earlier this week. 

I still can’t put my finger on what, precisely, is wrong with SKC, but this rings true to me:

A better CF, whether as a holdup & setup player or a first option shooter, probably helps KC’s defense as much as anything. Ground coverage required for Zusi, Guiterrez, Russell, etc may be more compact so Ilie, Besler, Opara wouldn’t need to push as highest into gap left by CM’s

— Nathan Martin (@NMthenoise) March 26, 2018

They have seemed weirdly spread out at times, and teams are attacking those gaps.

Will D.C. be able to manage that? So far they’ve not had much possession to speak of, save for an encouraging last half hour against Houston in Week 3, and when they’ve attacked it’s almost always been via long balls over the top. SKC can be caught on that – they were last week against Colorado – but it’s still a low-probability attacking approach.

Colorado Rapids vs. Philadelphia Union

9 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

The Rapids played 10 brilliant minutes last weekend, then fell on their faces for the subsequent 80. They simply stopped wanting to have the ball and in so doing allowed Sporting to get into a rhythm and start carving out chances. That rhythm and those chances eventually formed into a pair of second-half goals and a 2-2 draw that had to leave Anthony Hudson & Co. furious with themselves.

Colorado ended up conceding 3.55 expected goals on the day, the worst performance in the league last week. That is double-plus ungood from a team who spent so many of their resources on the backline this offseason.

Philly spent their resources on attackers. Neither David Accam nor Borek Dockal have broken through yet – though they’ve played two games and one game, respectively, so let’s give them some time. I will be particularly interested in seeing how directly Accam attacks the space between wingback Marlon Hairston and right center back Deklan Wynne, each of whom have had some struggles thus far in the young season.

I’m pretty sure that will be the key because you just know that CJ Sapong is going to do the dirty work of occupying Danny Wilson and Tommy Smyth, the other Colorado CBs.

Seattle Sounders vs. Montreal Impact

10 pm ET | FULL PREVIEW | TV & streaming info

Montreal played a weirdo 5-3-2 with the “2” both being fake forwards – neither Ignacio Piatti nor Jeisson Vargas is really a forward – the last time they took the field. It obviously worked:

More to the point: It really threw Toronto FC off. And given Seattle’s inability to adjust in meaningful, positive ways so far in 2018, that has to be a worry for Sounders fans heading into this one.

The other worry is obviously injuries and absences. Jordan Morris, Ozzie Alonso and Victor Rodriguez are all still out. Nico Lodeiro and Will Bruin are still questionable. Clint Dempsey is on time out. There is a good chance this is another patchwork lineup from the Rave Green.

It’ll still be a 4-2-3-1 – I mean, it’s always a 4-2-3-1 at this point – but anybody who tells you they know exactly who’s going to be out there is fibbing. There’s just been too much bad luck and too many questionable performances from this team so far to be at all confident about pretty much anything.

One more thing to ponder…

Happy weekending, folks. Enjoy the ride.

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MLSsoccer.com News

Armchair Analyst: Everything you need to know heading into MLS Week 5 was originally published on 365 Football