#World Agroforestry Centre

[mercy-maiyo]

Latest Jobs at Eldoret Water and Sanitation Company Limited (ELDOWAS)

Managing Director

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General Manager, Technical Services

General Manager, Finance & Strategy

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Maintenance Officer(Electro-Mechanical)

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Jobs at World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)

Program Analyst CIMMYT

https://www.mercymaiyo.com/job/world-agroforestry-centre-icraf-nairobi-333-program-analyst-cimmyt/

Project Coordinator

https://www.mercymaiyo.com/job/world-agroforestry-centre-icraf-nairobi-333-project-coordinator/

Data Specialist – Agronomic Analytics and Modeling CIMMYT

https://www.mercymaiyo.com/job/world-agroforestry-centre-icraf-nairobi-333-data-specialist-agronomic-analytics-and-modeling-cimmyt/

Occupational Health and Safety Officer CIMMYT

https://www.mercymaiyo.com/job/world-agroforestry-centre-icraf-nairobi-333-occupational-health-and-safety-officer-cimmyt/

Human Resource Assistant CIMMYT

https://www.mercymaiyo.com/job/world-agroforestry-centre-icraf-nairobi-333-human-resource-assistant-cimmyt/

[valkyries-things]

DR. ASTER GEBREKIRSTOS // SCIENTIST

“She is a Ethiopian senior scientist, leader of the Dendrochronology Laboratory at the Center for International Forestry Research and a professor of agroforestry at World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF). As a dendrochronologist, she established dendrochronology laboratory in Ethiopia in 2009, the dendrochronology laboratory at Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources in 2010, and the World Agroforestry Centre's dendrochronology laboratory in Kenya in 2013.”

[cognitud]

Carbon Footprint Reduction Strategies

Our house is on fire. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. I want you to act as if our house is on fire. Because it is. – Greta Thunberg (Environmental Activist).

In today’s world, where people are more conscious about the environment, there is a growing need to reduce carbon footprints. This has led to various strategic initiatives that align with both intellectual sharpness and a shared commitment to responsible stewardship. In the pursuit of a sustainable future, a range of advanced carbon footprint reduction strategies have emerged. These strategies are a result of innovative thinking, scientific knowledge, and a collective dedication to environmental preservation.

Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) Technologies have emerged as a promising solution to combat climate change. These innovative technologies aim to capture carbon dioxide emissions from various sources, such as power plants and industrial facilities, and then utilize the captured carbon for beneficial purposes. Once captured Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) technologies have emerged as a leading solution in the fight against carbon emissions. These cutting-edge systems convert CO2 emissions into valuable products, such as building materials, fuels, or chemicals. This dual-purpose approach not only mitigates emissions but also transforms carbon into a resource, offering a tangible pathway toward a circular and sustainable economy.

Blockchain technology is revolutionizing the way we track and manage carbon offsets. With its transparent and accountable nature, blockchain is disrupting the carbon mitigation industry. Blockchain technology plays a crucial role in ensuring the traceability and authenticity of carbon offset credits. By offering a decentralized and immutable ledger, blockchain provides a secure and transparent platform for recording and verifying these credits. This innovation not only enhances the integrity of carbon offset markets but also fosters a more trustworthy ecosystem, empowering businesses and individuals to make informed and impactful choices in their carbon reducing efforts.

In the complex world of global trade, the concept of carbon neutrality is now being applied to supply chains. Innovative strategies in supply chain management involve meticulous examination of each link in the chain to identify opportunities for reducing emissions and implementing offsetting measures. From sustainable sourcing practices to optimized transportation logistics, these initiatives align economic imperatives with environmental responsibility. This shift towards sustainability is creating a new standard where carbon neutrality is a fundamental part of a company’s ethos.

The agriculture sector, a substantial contributor to carbon emissions, witnesses a transformative shift through regenerative agriculture techniques. Practices such as cover cropping, agroforestry, and rotational grazing not only sequester carbon in the soil but also enhance overall soil health. Regenerative agriculture is a sustainable land management approach that not only helps reduce emissions but also promotes resilient and productive ecosystems. By aligning agricultural practices with broader ecological goals, it contributes to a more sustainable future.

Afforestation and reforestation initiatives play a crucial role in combating rising carbon levels. Nature takes centre stage in the battle against escalating carbon levels through afforestation and reforestation initiatives. Forest planting and restoration efforts play a crucial role in both carbon dioxide sequestration and biodiversity conservation. The strategic alliance with nature is a perfect example of a harmonious approach, where ecological restoration becomes a linchpin in our carbon mitigation endeavours.

Smart grids and energy management systems have emerged as a critical frontier in the fight against carbon emissions. These innovative technologies are revolutionizing the way we manage and distribute energy. By utilizing localized grids and incorporating renewable sources, these innovative systems promote a distributed model that combines advanced technology with environmental consciousness. These systems leverage real-time data, artificial intelligence to optimize efficiency, reduce waste, and integrate renewable energy sources seamlessly into the smart grids resulting in a shift away from centralized, carbon-intensive power generation methods.

In the ongoing journey towards reducing carbon footprints, these strategies demonstrate a strong commitment to innovation, sustainability, and environmental responsibility. As we deal with the complexities of a world grappling with climate changes, these initiatives demonstrate our strong dedication to creating a sustainable future. By combining our knowledge and ethical priorities, we can work towards a future that is resilient to carbon emissions. For More Information visit us at https://cognitud.com/

[tercioam-blog]

Agroforestry Finance Facility: Mobilizando US$ 1 Bilhão para o Uso Sustentável da Terra com agrofloresta

Benefícios da Agrossilvicultura: Promovendo a Mitigação das Mudanças Climáticas e a Segurança Alimentar

Benefícios da Agrossilvicultura: Promovendo a Mitigação das Mudanças Climáticas e a Segurança Alimentar Uma iniciativa lançada na COP26 tem como objetivo mobilizar $1 bilhão para financiar a agrossilvicultura, uma prática de uso da terra que combina árvores e cultivos agrícolas. A iniciativa, chamada de Agroforestry Finance Facility, é liderada pelo World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) e pelo…

[hevearesearch]

Agroforestri Karet: benarkah kaya akan imbal jasa lingkungan?

Pye-Smith C World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), 2013

[jogjakarta]

CIFOR-ICRAF announces Dr Eliane Ubalijoro as Chief Executive Officer

CIFOR-ICRAF announces Dr Eliane Ubalijoro as Chief Executive Officer

Dr Eliane Ubalijoro will be the first African woman CEO of a CGIAR Research Center

CIFOR-ICRAF's acting CEO Dr Robert Nasi will become Chief Operating Officer

Ubalijoro and Nasi will lead the merged organisation of CIFOR-ICRAF – the world's leading research and development centre on trees, forests and landscapes

(Nairobi, 17 January 2023) – The Board of Trustees for the Center for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry (CIFOR-ICRAF) is very pleased to announce the appointment of Dr Eliane Ubalijoro as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of CIFOR-ICRAF and Director General of ICRAF. Ubalijoro will be the first African woman Director General of a CGIAR Research Center and CEO of two Centers in CGIAR’s 52-year history.

Born in Rwanda, Ubalijoro is the Executive Director of Sustainability in the Digital Age, and Professor of Practice for public-private sector partnerships at McGill University’s Institute for the Study of International Development. Over the past two decades, her research has focused on innovation, gender, and sustainable development.

“I see CIFOR-ICRAF as a critical institution, poised to accelerate its research and impact, leading the way to achieving the 2030 goals by harnessing the potential of forestry and agroforestry to create ecosystems that generate prosperity, sustainably,” said Ubalijoro. She is interested in combining CIFOR-ICRAF’s wealth of knowledge in forestry, ecology and sustainable agriculture with the transparency that high-resolution satellite data and artificial intelligence can bring to connect with work that aims to increase biodiversity worldwide and ensure transparency in terms of carbon sequestration.

Alongside Ubalijoro’s appointment starting May 2023, Dr Robert Nasi – CIFOR-ICRAF's acting CEO – will take up the position of Chief Operating Officer. Nasi is a globally recognised forestry scientist who has been researching the ecology and management of tropical forests for the past four decades, including the sustainable use of forest resources and the intersection of conservation and development.

“This appointment marks a new era for CIFOR-ICRAF,” said Nasi. “As the potential of trees and forests in addressing the climate, food and biodiversity crises becomes increasingly apparent, the new leadership team stands ready to take CIFOR-ICRAF into an ambitious era of growth to provide much-needed solutions to some of the greatest challenges of our time.”

CIFOR-ICRAF is the world’s leader on harnessing the power of trees, forests and agroforestry landscapes to address the most pressing global challenges of our time - biodiversity loss, climate change, food security, livelihoods and inequity.

It has partnerships in 64 countries, 159 funding partners and 192 active projects, alongside more than 2,200 completed projects across 92 nations. The organisation has an annual budget of USD 100 million, and a combined legacy investment of USD 2 billion in research and technology, policy and development. On average, CIFOR-ICRAF research is cited nearly 137 times a day, and appears in global media more than 3,000 times per year.

“CIFOR-ICRAF has never been better equipped than now, with the combination of Dr Ubalijoro’s wealth of experience in agricultural research, digital innovation and transformational leadership, and Dr Nasi’s deep knowledge of tropical forestry and exemplary success in guiding both organisations through the merger,” said CIFOR-ICRAF Board Chair Doris Capistrano. “We look forward to the new heights CIFOR-ICRAF will reach in its mission to address interconnected global challenges through the power of forests, trees and agroforestry.”

[nipashe411]

Mukau will put cash in your pocket and food on the table Melia volkensii is indigenous to Africa’s arid and semi-arid lands. Common in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania, it is sometimes referred to as the African mahogany because of its hard and expensive wood.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Amazon on the Amazon: Tech giant to help Brazilian farmers restore 20,000 hectares of rainforest

[Image description: aerial view of the Amazon Rainforest with a river.]

Amazon is to pay Brazilian farmers in the Amazon region to restore around 20,000 hectares of rainforest over the next three years, as part of a new nature-based climate solutions initiative it estimates could remove up to 10 million tonnes metric tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere by 2050.

Launched today in partnership with US non-profit The Nature Conservancy and the World Agroforestry Centre, the initiative aims to support around 3,000 smallholding farmers in the Brazilian Amazonian state of Pará to help restore degraded cattle pastures back into native forest.

Amazon said the Agroforestry and Restoration Accelerator would provide farmers with a sustainable source of income through the sale of cocoa and other crops, as well as experimenting with new approaches - such as through digital and satellite technologies - to support climate-friendly farming, monitor carbon removal, and expand markets for sustainable forest-based commodities.

Within three years, the initiative could restore native forest in the Amazonian region covering the equivalent land mass to the city of Seattle in the US, while also helping to sequester carbon from the atmosphere, according to the online retail and tech giant.

Continue reading.

[keyconservation]

The World Agroforestry Centre and the Centre for International Forestry Research have collaborated to pioneer the concept of ‘engagement-landscapes’, involving local stakeholders and addressing the complexity of drivers of deforestation. The project is focused on the Yangambi Biosphere Reserve in the Democratic Republic of Congo and has already been successful in training local postgraduate students in sustainable forest management. Photo: CIFOR/Axel Fassio Read more here: https://bit.ly/2EQZJxE https://instagr.am/p/CEollA3FcEe/

[sciencespies]

Sustainable palm oil? How environmental protection and poverty reduction can be reconciled

https://sciencespies.com/nature/sustainable-palm-oil-how-environmental-protection-and-poverty-reduction-can-be-reconciled/

Sustainable palm oil? How environmental protection and poverty reduction can be reconciled

Palm oil is often associated with tropical deforestation above all else. However, this is only one side of the story, as agricultural scientists from the University of Göttingen and the IPB University Bogor (Indonesia) show in a new study. The rapid expansion of oil palm has also contributed considerably to economic growth and poverty reduction in local communities, particularly in Asia. The study was published in the Annual Review of Resource Economics.

For the study, the researchers evaluated results from over 30 years of research on the environmental, economic and social consequences of oil palm cultivation in Africa, Asia and Latin America. They combined the results from the international literature with their own data from Indonesia, which they have been collecting since 2012 as part of an interdisciplinary German-Indonesian Collaborative Research Centre (CRC 990). Indonesia is the largest palm oil producer and exporter in the world. A large proportion of the palm oil produced in Indonesia is exported to Europe and the USA, where it is used by the food, fuel and cosmetics industries.

The research data show that the expansion of oil palm in some regions of the world — especially Indonesia and Malaysia — contributes significantly to tropical deforestation and the loss of biodiversity. Clearing forestland also leads to substantial carbon emissions and other environmental problems. “However, banning palm oil production and trade would not be a sustainable solution,” says Professor Matin Qaim, agricultural economist at the University of Göttingen and first author of the study. “The reason is that oil palm produces three times more oil per hectare than soybean, rapeseed, or sunflower. This means that if palm oil was replaced with alternative vegetable oils, much more land would be needed for cultivation, with additional loss of forests and other natural habitats.”

Banning palm oil would also have negative economic and social consequences in the producing countries. “It is often assumed that oil palm is only grown on large industrial plantations,” says Qaim. “In reality, however, around half of the world’s palm oil is produced by smallholder farmers. Our data show that oil palm cultivation increases profits and incomes in the small farm sector, in addition to raising wages and creating additional employment for rural labourers. Although there are incidents of conflicts over land, overall the oil palm boom has significantly reduced rural poverty in Indonesia and other producing countries.”

“The goal should be to make palm oil production more environmentally and climate-friendly,” says Professor Ingo Grass, agricultural ecologist at the University of Hohenheim and co-author of the study. “High yields on the already-cultivated land are important, in order to reduce additional deforestation. Mosaic landscapes, where oil palm is combined with patches of forest and other crops in agroforestry systems, could also help to protect biodiversity and ecosystem functions,” he adds.

The authors conclude that developing and implementing more sustainable production systems are challenges which require both innovative research and policymaking. Clearly and fairly defined land rights and improved access for smallholder farmers to training, credit and modern technologies would be important steps forward. Consumers can contribute by shopping for food, fuel, and cosmetics more consciously and avoiding waste wherever possible.

Story Source:

Materials provided by University of Göttingen. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

#Nature

[susanmacmillan]

How changing the world's food systems can help to protect the planet

How changing the world’s food systems can help to protect the planet

Technology can be used to help farmers produce good crops (photo credit: Leo Sebastian, IRRI/CCAFS). 

Written by Elwyn Grainger-Jones, CGIAR System Organization

Going into debt with nature is a dangerous thing. When our stocks of water, land and clean air are spent—we don’t have a second planet to borrow from. But that’s exactly the way that Earth is heading. 1 August 2018 marks an annual event, ‘

[dailyjobse]

Global Landscapes Forum (GLF) Coordinator job at World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)

Global Landscapes Forum (GLF) Coordinator job at World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)

Vacancy title: Global Landscapes Forum (GLF) Coordinator [ Type: FULL TIME , Industry: Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources , Category: Management ] Jobs at: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)   Deadline of this Job: 03 July 2022 Duty Station: Within Kenya , Nairobi , East Africa Summary Date Posted: Thursday, June 16, 2022 , Base Salary: Not Disclosed JOB DETAILS: Job Summary The GLF…

[kailashsingh11]

Sustainable trade and peatland management for emissions reduction and community livelihoods

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Sustainable trade and peatland management for emissions reduction and community livelihoods

Challenges and opportunities in Indonesia

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0Aerial view of canal blocking in Dompas, Riau. CIFOR/Mokhamad Edliadi

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Managing peatlands in Indonesia 19s South Sumatra for multiple benefits

Growing and trading commodities while protecting and sustainably managing forests and other natural ecosystems from agricultural encroachment is crucial for meeting development and climate targets both nationally and internationally.

Although they pose environmental risks, agricultural commodities also improve livelihoods by contributing to economic development, poverty alleviation and food security.

They were a major topic last month at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, as leaders of more than 25 countries 13 including Indonesia 13 signed a affirming their commitment to the Forests, Agriculture and Commodity Trade Dialogue, establishing trade and market development, smallholder support, traceability and transparency, and research, development and innovation as key areas of focus.joint statement

On the sidelines of COP26, a , examining aspects of the country 19s complex trade in agricultural commodities.talk show moderated by Niken Sakuntaladewi from Indonesia 19s Ministry of Environment and Forestry covered related topics in the Indonesia Pavilion

In Indonesia, the (TRADE Hub) focuses on two agricultural commodities 14 palm oil and coffee 14 in collaboration with the Center for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry (CIFOR-ICRAF), , , and Indonesia 19s (Bogor Agricultural University) and .Trade, Development and Environment HubWildlife Conservation SocietyResearch Center for Climate ChangeInstitute Pertanian Bogor UniversityUniversity of Lampung

Neil Burgess, chief scientist with the and principal investigator with TRADE Hub, said: 1CWe 19re gathering data on agricultural commodities and wildlife trade in Brazil, China, Congo Basin, Indonesia and elsewhere to better inform trade agreements and trading companies. We want to learn how, for example, does the palm-oil trade link to deforestation and emissions and rural incomes. 1DU.N. Environment Programme 19s World Conservation Monitoring Centre

Key risk commodities identified by the are palm oil, beef, cocoa, coffee and maize. How these interact with climate is closely linked to policies in consuming countries and institutions in producing countries.Grantham Institute on Climate Change and the Environment

1CPalm-oil consumption in the European Union [EU] is driven by policy rather than consumer preferences, driving distant impacts, 1D said Elizabeth Robinson, director of the institute. 1CThe EU sets targets for bioenergy renewables, for example, which increases demand. Reduced demand in the EU is similarly driven by policy 13 now there 19s a discussion about a phasing out ban by 2030. I think they are focusing too much on the oil rather than on stopping deforestation. It has led to losses for producers, conflicts between governments and clashes in the field. 1D

Trade agreements are increasingly using 1Cnon-tariff measures 1D to influence producing countries, she added. For example, the has tariff reduction linked to forest protection, which, she said, raises issues of sovereignty.Indonesian 13European Free Trade Association 19s Free Trade Agreement

The Association of South-East Asian Nations [ASEAN] issued an to COP26, calling for increased ambition and opportunities to finance implementation, said Associate Professor Simon Tay, chairperson, .ASEAN Joint Statement on Climate ChangeSingapore Institute of International Affairs

1CWe need our own 18ASEAN Climate Community 19 to scale up action, 1D he said. 1CCarbon markets are necessary for pushing our ambitions forward beyond the . We must also find nature-based solutions with high-quality, verified carbon credits, twinning growth with carbon responsibility. We also have to look at how concessions for palm oil and other commodities can be better managed to reduce emissions, make livelihoods possible for communities and bring in the right kinds of investments. 1DNDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions)

Michael Brady, principal scientist and leader of the Value Chains, Finance and Investment research group at CIFOR-ICRAF, researched agreements in the region as part of , a joint project with the and that is implemented , CIFOR and the Global Environment Centre.Measurable Action for Haze-Free Sustainable Land Management in Southeast AsiaInternational Fund for Agricultural DevelopmentGlobal Environment Centreby the ASEAN Secretariat

1CThere are 23 million hectares of peatland in Southeast Asia, 38 percent of the world 19s tropical peat, with Indonesia and Malaysia holding 99 percent, 1D he said. 1CClimate change has exacerbated fires used for clearing peatland with serious impact from transboundary haze on health, trade, production, transport, fisheries, crops, loss of life and determent of foreign investors. 1D

The 2015 fires were estimated to incur losses of $16 billion, he said. 1CThis is a cross-cutting issue for ASEAN, which has established several policy frameworks. The ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution provides a strong political basis, requiring member states 19 cooperation to prevent and monitor haze, provide information and institute legislation. 1D

He listed factors for reducing fires and protecting peatlands. Regionally: coordination between state and non-state actors; and a consistent approach to methodologies, data and estimates for monitoring. Nationally: leadership providing support; coordinated prevention; comprehensive policies; improved data; and a common understanding.

Herry Purnomo, scientist with both CIFOR-ICRAF and IPB, who coordinates TRADE Hub Indonesia, welcomed the COP26 pledge to end deforestation and Indonesia 19s pledge for forests to be a net carbon sink, both by 2030.

1CBut how? 1D he asked. 1CThese are complex sourcing areas and destinations, flows of money, levels and types of employment and emissions. Around 2 million hectares of oil-palm plantations in Sumatra and Kalimantan are on peatlands. How to deal with this? 1D

TRADE Hub Indonesia 19s simulations found that business-as-usual would lead to increases in oil-palm plantations, volume of exports, incomes and employment but also emissions unless peatlands were protected.

1CCommitments can decrease deforestation as we have seen in South Sumatra, 1D said Purnomo, 1Cand emissions can be reduced locally using intercropping and canal blocking. 1D

However, sometimes there will be no option but to swap plantations on peatlands to other land, he said.

Tiur Rumondang, Director of Assurance, Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), explained that their certification aimed to reduce emissions and improve livelihoods.

1CFor sustainable palm oil to be the norm, there must be, first, a competitive and sustainable sector; second, sustainable livelihoods and poverty reduction, human rights; and third, protected and enhanced ecosystems. RSPO certification includes guidance to achieve these. In the 2018 RSPO P&C standard, we stipulated that sustainable oil palm should not be on peatlands. 1D

She highlighted that RSPO 19s smallholders 19 credit scheme annually disbursed IDR 29 billion (approximately $2 million) to 33 independent groups of more than 8000 smallholders. In 2019, sustainable palm-oil practices by members reduced emissions by 1.4 million tonnes and conserved more than 230,000 hectares of highly valuable forests. Tiur admitted that the number of certified groups was small 14 1 132 percent 14 but last year saw a 180 percent increase in membership.

1COnce we have a champion organization, such as FORTASBI [Forum Petani Kelapa Sawit Berkelanjutan Indonesia/Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil Farmers Forum], that provides programmes for smallholders, 1D she said, 1Cengagement is spread wider. But if we want to be faster, we need data about where smallholders are located. 1D

Asked by the moderator for summaries, Robinson said that from the EU perspective it is important to work with producing countries toward the same ends; Tay noted the urgency to cooperate to avoid contention; Purnomo said that zero net deforestation by 2030 in Indonesia was highly possible; Brady said that an integrated approach was needed, including regionally; and Rumondang said that from the perspective of practitioners of sustainable palm oil, certainty is needed from government.

The TRADE Hub is funded by the UK Research and Innovation Global Challenges Research Fund and led by the UN Environment Programme 19s . Indonesia is one of the locations of a country hub and research activities. World Conservation Monitoring Centre

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For more information on this topic, please contact Herry Purnomo at .h.purnomo@cgiar.org

This research forms part of the , which is supported by .CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and AgroforestryCGIAR Fund Donors

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[nipashe411]

Markhamia lutea, a versatile tree good for timber and medicine Markhamia lutea is a tropical African tree native to the continent’s lake basins and highlands in countries such as Ivory Coast, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.

[sciencespies]

By 2500, Earth will be alien to humans if we don't act now, scientists warn

https://sciencespies.com/environment/by-2500-earth-will-be-alien-to-humans-if-we-dont-act-now-scientists-warn/

By 2500, Earth will be alien to humans if we don't act now, scientists warn

There are many reports based on scientific research that talk about the long-term impacts of climate change – such as rising levels of greenhouse gases, temperatures and sea levels – by the year 2100. The Paris Agreement, for example, requires us to limit warming to under 2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

Every few years since 1990, we have evaluated our progress through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) scientific assessment reports and related special reports. IPCC reports assess existing research to show us where we are and what we need to do before 2100 to meet our goals, and what could happen if we don’t.

The recently published United Nations assessment of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) warns that current promises from governments set us up for a very dangerous 2.7 degrees Celsius warming by 2100: this means unprecedented fires, storms, droughts, floods and heat, and profound land and aquatic ecosystem change.

While some climate projections do look past 2100, these longer-term projections aren’t being factored into mainstream climate adaptation and environmental decision-making today. This is surprising because people born now will only be in their 70s by 2100. What will the world look like for their children and grandchildren?

To grasp, plan for and communicate the full spatial and temporal scope of climate impacts under any scenario, even those meeting the Paris Agreement, researchers and policymakers must look well beyond the 2100 horizon.

After 2100

In 2100, will the climate stop warming? If not, what does this mean for humans now and in the future? In our recent open-access article in Global Change Biology, we begin to answer these questions.

We ran global climate model projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), which are “time-dependent projections of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.”

Our projections modelled low (RCP6.0), medium (RCP4.5) and high mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6, which corresponds to the “well-below 2 degrees Celsius” Paris Agreement goal) up to the year 2500.

We also modelled vegetation distribution, heat stress and growing conditions for our current major crop plants, to get a sense of the kind of environmental challenges today’s children and their descendants might have to adapt to from the 22nd century onward.

(Lyon et al., 2021)

Above: Global mean near-surface air temperature (solid lines) and thermosteric sea level rise (dotted lines) anomalies relative to the 2000-19 mean for the RCP6.0, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Shaded regions highlight the time horizons of interest and their nominal reference years. The bottom panel shows spatial anomalies relative to 2000-19 mean for the 2100, 2200 and 2500 climates under the three RCPs.

In our model, we found that global average temperatures keep increasing beyond 2100 under RCP4.5 and 6.0. Under those scenarios, vegetation and the best crop-growing areas move towards the poles, and the area suitable for some crops is reduced. Places with long histories of cultural and ecosystem richness, like the Amazon Basin, may become barren.

Further, we found heat stress may reach fatal levels for humans in tropical regions which are currently highly populated. Such areas might become uninhabitable. Even under high-mitigation scenarios, we found that sea level keeps rising due to expanding and mixing water in warming oceans.

Although our findings are based on one climate model, they fall within the range of projections from others, and help to reveal the potential magnitude of climate upheaval on longer time scales.

To really portray what a low-mitigation/high-heat world could look like compared to what we’ve experienced until now, we used our projections and diverse research expertise to inform a series of nine paintings covering a thousand years (1500, 2020, and 2500 CE) in three major regional landscapes (the Amazon, the Midwest United States and the Indian subcontinent).

The images for the year 2500 center on the RCP6.0 projections, and include slightly advanced but recognizable versions of today’s technologies.

The Amazon

(Lyon et al., 2021/CC BY-ND)

Above: The top image shows a traditional pre-contact Indigenous village (1500 CE) with access to the river and crops planted in the rainforest. The middle image is a present-day landscape. The bottom image considers the year 2500 and shows a barren landscape and low water level resulting from vegetation decline, with sparse or degraded infrastructure and minimal human activity.

Midwest US

(Lyon et al., 2021/CC BY-ND)

Above: The top painting is based on pre-colonization Indigenous cities and communities with buildings and a diverse maize-based agriculture. The second is the same area today, with a grain monoculture and large harvesters. The last image, however, shows agricultural adaptation to a hot and humid subtropical climate, with imagined subtropical agroforestry based on oil palms and arid zone succulents. The crops are tended by AI drones, with a reduced human presence.

The Indian subcontinent

(Lyon et al., 2021/CC BY-ND)

Above: The top image is a busy agrarian village scene of rice planting, livestock use and social life. The second is a present-day scene showing the mix of traditional rice farming and modern infrastructure present in many areas of the Global South. The bottom image shows a future of heat-adaptive technologies including robotic agriculture and green buildings with minimal human presence due to the need for personal protective equipment.

An alien future?

Between 1500 and today, we have witnessed colonization and the Industrial Revolution, the birth of modern states, identities and institutions, the mass combustion of fossil fuels and the associated rise in global temperatures.

If we fail to halt climate warming, the next 500 years and beyond will change the Earth in ways that challenge our ability to maintain many essentials for survival – particularly in the historically and geographically rooted cultures that give us meaning and identity.

The Earth of our high-end projections is alien to humans. The choice we face is to urgently reduce emissions, while continuing to adapt to the warming we cannot escape as a result of emissions up to now, or begin to consider life on an Earth very different to this one.

Christopher Lyon, Postdoctoral researcher, Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University; Alex Dunhill, Research Fellow in Palaeobiology, University of Leeds; Andrew P. Beckerman, Professor in Evolutionary Ecology, University of Sheffield; Ariane Burke, Professor, Anthropology, Université de Montréal; Bethany Allen, PhD Student, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds; Chris Smith, NERC-IIASA Collaborative Research Fellow, University of Leeds; Daniel J. Hill, Lecturer, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds; Erin Saupe, Associate Professor, Palaeobiology, University of Oxford; James McKay, Manager, Centre for Doctoral Training, University of Leeds; Julien Riel-Salvatore, Professor, Anthropology, Université de Montréal; Lindsay C. Stringer, Professor, Environment and Geography, University of York; Rob Marchant, Professor of Tropical Ecology, University of York, and Tracy Aze, Associate Professor, Earth and Environment, University of Leeds.

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