#Vladimir Gerasimov

[thecollectibles]

Nomadica by Vladimir Gerasimov

[memenewsdotcom]

Russia switches leaders in Ukraine

Russia switches leaders in Ukraine

[tomorrowusa]

Some of Putin's highest ranking generals have gone missing ��� and it's not because Ukraine has eliminated them as it previously had done to a host of other senior Russian officers.

Valery Gerasimov, Russia's top general, has not appeared in public or on state TV since the aborted mutiny on Saturday when mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov be handed over. He has not been mentioned in a defence ministry press release since June 9 either. Gerasimov, 67, is the commander of Russia's war in Ukraine, and the holder of one of Russia's three "nuclear briefcases," according to some Western military analysts. Absent from view too is General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed "General Armageddon" by the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. A New York Times report, based on a U.S. intelligence briefing, said on Tuesday he had advance knowledge of the mutiny and that Russian authorities were checking if he was complicit.

And with Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin currently in exile in Belarus, that means Putin's old crony Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and a bunch of less experienced officers are left running the war.

Rybar, an influential channel on the Telegram messaging application run by a former Russian defence ministry press officer, said a purge was underway. [ ... ] "The armed insurgency by the Wagner private military company has become a pretext for a massive purge in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces," said Rybar. Such a move, if confirmed, could alter the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine — which it calls a "special military operation" — and cause turmoil in the ranks at a time when Moscow is trying to stymie a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Purges are sort of a Russian tradition since Stalin's time.

Another Putin crony may now be on the rise.

Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard who used to be Putin's bodyguard, appears to be another beneficiary after appearing in public to say his men were ready to "stand to the death" to defend Moscow from Wagner. He has spoken of the possibility of getting heavy weaponry and tanks for his forces in the wake of the mutiny.

Considering that Russia's supply of tanks is badly depleted due to the war, Zolotov shouldn't hold his breath. Maybe Putin will let him use that World War II tank which was the only Russian tank seen in Moscow's annual Victory Day parade.

Dictators place loyalty above everything. Putin may retreat even further into his shrinking circle of cronies.

[sovietpostcards]

Vladimir Lenin. Vintage folded card by A. Gerasimov (1987).

Unused, blank inside. Very good condition.

Available in my shop for $3.50 + $5 shipping (registered, by Russian Mail).

Currently shipping from St Petersburg.

Message me if you want to buy this. Currently available items. I combine shipping. How to buy.

[follow-up-news]

In a brazen attack that caught Russia off-guard, Ukraine’s military has sent a large ground force across its border and into western Russia. The Ukrainian soldiers crossed the country's northeastern border Tuesday and now appear to be several miles inside Russia’s Kursk region, where they are operating in several villages. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia's general staff, said in a Kremlin briefing Wednesday that some 1,000 Ukrainian troops were taking part, backed by dozens of armored vehicles. Russia has sent reinforcements in an attempt to drive the Ukrainians back across the border. Russian leader Vladimir Putin listened to the assessment with a look that appeared to be a mixture of impatience and disgust. He called the Ukrainian incursion a "large-scale provocation." Ukraine has previously backed Russian exiles who carried out limited cross-border raids, but has never conducted its own operation on such a scale. Ukraine is not commenting on the current developments, and many details remain sketchy. In an interview with NPR, Mykhailo Podolak, one of the top advisers to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, declined to provide any specifics.

[ukrainenews]

(This situation is very much a developing thing and there's a lot of conflicting and wrong information out there right now. I know I've been absent lately, but I'm keeping an eye on things.)

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday his Wagner fighters had crossed the border into Russia from Ukraine and were prepared to go "all the way" against Moscow's military, hours after the Kremlin accused him of armed mutiny.

As a long-running standoff between Prigozhin and the military top brass appeared to come to a head, Russia's FSB security service opened a criminal case against him, TASS news agency said. It called on the Wagner private military company forces to ignore his orders and arrest him.

Wagner fighters had entered the southern Russian city of Rostov, Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on Telegram. He said he and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way.

Prigozhin earlier said, without providing evidence, that Russia's military leadership had killed a huge number of his troops in an air strike and vowed to punish them.

He said his actions were not a military coup. But in a frenzied series of audio messages, in which the sound of his voice sometimes varied and could not be independently verified, he appeared to suggest that his 25,000-strong militia was en route to oust the leadership of the defence ministry in Moscow.

Security was stepped up on Friday night at government buildings, transport facilities and other key locations in Moscow, TASS reported, citing a source at a security service.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was getting around-the-clock updates, TASS said, while the White House said it was monitoring the situation and would consult with allies.

Kyiv, meanwhile, said the major thrust in its counteroffensive against Moscow's invasion had yet to be launched. "The main blow is still to come," Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar told Ukrainian television.

A top Ukrainian general reported "tangible successes" in advances in the south - one of two main theatres of operations, along with eastern Ukraine.

'OBEY PRESIDENT,' GENERAL SAYS

The deputy commander of Russia's Ukraine campaign, General Sergei Surovikin, told Wagner fighters to obey Putin, accept Moscow's commanders and return to their bases. He said political deterioration would play into the hands of Russia's enemies.

"I urge you to stop," Surovikin said in a video posted on Telegram, his right hand resting on a rifle.

The standoff, many of the details of which remained unclear, looked like the biggest domestic crisis Putin has faced since he sent thousands of troops into Ukraine in February last year.

Prigozhin, a one-time Putin ally, in recent months has carried out an increasingly bitter feud with Moscow. Earlier on Friday, he appeared to cross a new line, saying the Kremlin's rationale for invading Ukraine, which it calls a "special military operation," was based on lies by the army's top brass.

Wagner led Russia's capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut last month, Russia's biggest victory in 10 months, and Prigozhin has used its battlefield success to criticise the leadership of the defense ministry with seeming impunity - until now.

For months, he has openly accused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, of incompetence.

Army Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev issued a video appeal in which he asked Prigozhin to reconsider his actions. "Only the president has the right to appoint the top leadership of the armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his authority," he said.

UKRAINE SAYS MAJOR THRUST AHEAD

On the ground in Ukraine, at least three people were killed in Russian attacks on Friday, including two who died after a trolleybus company came under fire in the city of Kherson, regional officials said.

Addressing the pace of the Ukrainian advances, several senior officials on Friday sent the clearest signal so far that the main part of the counteroffensive has not yet begun.

"I want to say that our main force has not been engaged in fighting yet, and we are now searching, probing for weak places in the enemy defences. Everything is still ahead," the Guardian quoted Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, as saying in an interview with the British newspaper.

General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine's "Tavria," or southern front, wrote on Telegram: "There have been tangible successes of the Defence Forces and in advances in the Tavria sector."

Tarnavskyi said Russian forces had lost hundreds of men and 51 military vehicles in the past 24 hours, including three tanks and 14 armoured personnel carriers.

Although the advances Ukraine has reported this month are its first substantial gains on the battlefield for seven months, Ukrainian forces have yet to push to the main defensive lines that Russia has had months to prepare.

[argumate]

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.

The reported dismissal and arrest of commanders leading combat effective units and formations appears to be associated with cases of insubordination. Popov flagrantly attempted to bypass Russian Chief of the General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and directly bring his complaints about the frontline in western Zaporizhia to Russian President Vladimir Putin. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Seliverstov’s dismissal was a result of similar insubordination, and Russian sources claimed that Seliverstov had a reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers. Kornev may have voiced criticism of a host of potential issues on behalf of the 7th VDV Division, including the likely failure to be notified beforehand about the Russian destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station (KHPP) on June 6, reported attritional fighting that failed to eliminate a Ukrainian presence near the Antonivsky Bridge, or conditions in western Zaporizhia Oblast similar to those that Popov complained about. Ibatullin’s arrest may be associated with the 90th Tank Division’s resumption of assaults in Luhansk Oblast, where it conducted widespread offensive operations that failed to achieve territorial gains during the Russian 2023 winter offensive campaign. It is unclear why Ibatullin would have been arrested, if, indeed, he was, when the other commanders were reportedly simply removed from their commands.

Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers. Russian milbloggers shared an audio excerpt on July 16 in which the alleged elements of the 7th VDV Division threatened that they would withdraw from their positions in occupied Kherson Oblast if the Russian MoD arrests Teplinsky or threatens his life. The elements of the 7th VDV Division also claimed that they would defend Teplinsky against the Russian MoD and asserted that the high command is targeting Russia’s most combat effective commanders. This audio appeal, if legitimate, is a threat of mass desertion in the face of the enemy on behalf of Teplinsky. Desertion in the face of the enemy is a capital offense in many militaries. The VDV servicemen are blackmailing the Russian MoD to ensure that Teplinsky continues to command troops in Ukraine, despite Teplinsky’s previous affiliation with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin who had led an armed rebellion on June 24 to overthrow Shoigu and Gerasimov.

The Kremlin’s chronic disregard for the Russian chain of command is likely hindering Shoigu and Gerasimov in their attempts to suppress insubordination and establish full control over the Russian military in Ukraine. Putin consistently bypassed or ignored the established chain of command in hopes of securing rapid successes on the battlefield throughout the war, degrading Shoigu’s and Gerasimov’s authority – especially when military failures on the frontlines also eroded their reputations. Putin had cultivated an environment in which military personnel, officials, and even Russian war correspondents bypassed Shoigu and Gerasimov to present Putin their understandings of the current state of the war and recommendations for what to do. It is unusual but not unique for a commander in chief to solicit views on the war from outside experts. It is more problematic, although still not unique, for a commander in chief to solicit the views of subordinates opposed to senior leadership directly. But allowing a quasi-military commander such as Prigozhin to conduct his own campaign parallel but not subordinate to the one being executed by the formal chain of command is extraordinarily unusual and badly corrosive of the authority of the formal military leadership.

Putin also established the Russian MoD as the scapegoat for all Russian military failures, which saddled Shoigu and Gerasimov with a reputation for incompetence and failure that they are unlikely to repair. ISW previously assessed that Putin regularly grants and withdraws his support for different commanders in hopes generating rapid improvements in Russia’s military fortunes but without always doing so formally. Shoigu and Gerasimov likely expected that Putin would restore their full authority over the Russian military’s decision-making processes given their loyalty to him after Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24. Putin, however, has clearly not done so.  He has instead followed his normal pattern of seeking to divert backlash away from himself and rotating commanders instead of outright dismissing them. Intensifying insubordination and widespread outrage in response to the ongoing officer purge may force the Kremlin to reconsider its partial backing for Shoigu and Gerasimov in the wake of Wagner’s rebellion.

Russian commanders are likely setting information conditions to prevent the Russian MoD from punishing them for their insubordination by promoting narratives among Russian servicemembers along the front and thereby risking widespread demoralization.

The apparent crisis in the Russian chain of command and the corresponding morale effects it may produce will likely degrade Russian capabilities to conduct tactical offensive operations that are critical to the Russian elastic defense in southern Ukraine.

snippets from recent ISW updates, this isn't even relating to the Ukrainian offensive, it's all Russian-on-Russian violence

[characterdesignreferences]

Art by  Vladimir Gerasimov

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[darkmaga-retard]

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The Russian Defense Ministry said on Friday that it was building up forces, who were engaged in active hostilities against Ukrainian formations in the Sudzha district of the Kursk Region, by sending tanks and other heavy tracked military equipment there.

"The columns marching to the areas of the tasks include the BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher systems, towed artillery guns, tanks transported on trawls, heavy tracked vehicles, Ural and KamAZ vehicles," the ministry said in a statement.

The ministry also posted a footage showing the movement of the military equipment toward the Kursk Region.

❗️Russia's Defense Ministry says build-up of forces engaged in active clashes against Ukraine's units in Sudzha district of the Russian Kursk region is underway In columns heading to the districts of the Kursk region, there are Grad MLRS, towed artillery guns, tanks transported… pic.twitter.com/Dur97iPIyk— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) August 9, 2024

On the morning of August 6, Ukrainian units, numbering up to 1,000 soldiers, attempted to seize a section of the Sudzha district in the Kursk region. According to a report delivered to President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday by Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, Russian forces halted the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) into the region. Gerasimov emphasized that the operation in the Kursk region would end with the enemy's defeat and the restoration of control up to the state border.

[warningsine]

President Vladimir Putin vowed Saturday to defend Russia against an armed rebellion by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led his troops out of Ukraine and into a key city south of Moscow.

The uprising, which Putin called “a stab in the back,” was the biggest threat to his leadership in over two decades in power.

The private army led by Prigozhin appears to control the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a city 660 miles (over 1,000 kilometers) south of Moscow that runs Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said in an intelligence briefing.

In his address, Putin called the uprising by Prigozhin, whom he did not mention by name, a “betrayal” and “treason.”

“All those who prepared the rebellion will suffer inevitable punishment,” Putin said. “The armed forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders.”

Prigozhin called himself a patriot.

“Regarding the betrayal of the motherland, the president was deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our homeland,” he said in an audio message on his Telegram channel.

He said his fighters would not turn themselves in at the request of Putin, as “we do not want the country to live on in corruption, deceit and bureaucracy.”

Prigozhin’s Wagner private military contractor has been fighting alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. It wasn’t immediately clear what his aims were, but the rebellion marks an escalation in Prigozhin’s struggle with Russian military leaders, who he has accused of botching the war in Ukraine and hamstringing his forces in the field.

“This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin confirmed Saturday he and his troops reached Rostov-on-Don after crossing the border from Ukraine.

He posted a video of himself at the Russian military headquarters in Rostov and claimed that his forces had taken control of the air field and other military facilities in the city. Other videos posted on social media showed military vehicles, including tanks, on the streets.

Prigozhin said his forces faced no resistance from young conscripts as they crossed into Russia, saying his troops “aren’t fighting against children.”

“But we will destroy anyone who stands in our way,” he said in one of a series of angry video and audio recordings posted on social media beginning late Friday. “We are moving forward and will go until the end.”

Putin condemned the rebellion, which comes at a time when Russia is “fighting the toughest battle for its future” as western governments heap sanctions on Moscow and arm Ukraine.

“The entire military, economic and information machine of the West is waged against us,” Putin said.

Russia’s security services called for Prigozhin’s arrest after he declared an armed rebellion late Friday.

In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin took the threat, authorities declared a “counterterrorist regime” in Moscow and its surroundings, allowing restricted freedoms and enhancing security in the capital.

It was not immediately clear how Prigozhin was able to enter the southern Russian city or how many troops he had with him.

Prigozhin said his aim was to punish Defense Minister Sergei Shogun after Russian government forces attacked Wagner field camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery.

Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, ordered the attacks following a meeting with Shoigu at which they decided to destroy Wagner, Prigozin said. He said Wagner’s forces shot down a Russian military helicopter that fired on a civilian convoy, but there was no independent confirmation.

Prigozhin said he had 25,000 troops under his command and urged the army not to offer resistance.

After Putin’s address, in which the Russian leader didn’t mention concrete steps to suppress the rebellion but rather called for unity in the face of the revolt, officials and state media personalities in the country sought to publicly reiterate their allegiance to the Kremlin and urged Prigozhin to back down.

Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, said that the Duma lawmakers “stand for the consolidation of forces″ and support Putin, adding that “Wagner fighters must make the only right choice: to be with their people, on the side of the law, to protect the security and future of the Motherland, to follow the orders of the Commander-in-Chief.”

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova echoed Volodin’s sentiment and said in a Telegram post that “we have one commander in chief. Not two, not three. One.″

Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of the Chechnya region who used to side with Prigozhin in his criticism of the military leadership, also expressed his full support of “every word of” Putin.

“We have the commander in chief, elected by the people, who knows the situation to the slightest detail better than any strategist and businessman,” Kadyrov said. “The mutiny needs to be suppressed.”

While the outcome of the confrontation was still unclear, it appeared likely to further hinder Moscow’s war effort as Kyiv’s forces were probing Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive. The dispute, especially if Prigozhin were to prevail, also could have repercussions for Putin and his ability to maintain a united front.

The Wagner forces have played a crucial role in Ukraine, succeeding in taking the eastern city of Bakhmut, where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place. But Prigozhin has increasingly criticized Russia’s military brass, accusing it of incompetence and of starving his troops of weapons and ammunition.

Heavy military trucks and armored vehicles were seen in several parts of central Moscow early Saturday, and soldiers toting assault rifles were deployed outside the main building of the Defense Ministry. The area around the presidential administration near Red Square was blocked, snarling traffic.

But even with the heightened military presence, downtown bars and restaurants were filled with customers. At one club near the headquarters of the FSB, people were dancing in the street near the entrance.

Prigozhin, whose feud with the Defense Ministry dates back years, had refused to comply with a requirement that military contractors sign contracts with the ministry before July 1. In a statement Friday, he said he was ready to find a compromise but “they have treacherously cheated us.”

“Today they carried out a rocket strike on our rear camps, and a huge number of our comrades got killed,” Prigozhin said. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the Wagner camps.

“The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped,” he shouted.

Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine, urged the Wagner forces to stop any move against the army, saying it would play into the hands of Russia’s enemies, who are “waiting to see the exacerbation of our domestic political situation.”

In Washington, the Institute for the Study of War said “the violent overthrow of Putin loyalists like Shoigu and Gerasimov would cause irreparable damage to the stability of Putin’s perceived hold on power.”

At the White House, National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge said: “We are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”

[nicklloydnow]

A dress rehearsal for a revolution to come like Potemkin? The last act of rebellion before totalitarianism like Kronstadt? A footnote in an American history book like Storozhevoy? Maybe just another Friday in Russia…

“Russian authorities stepped up security in Moscow and issued an arrest warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner paramilitary group, on charges of mutiny after he called on his troops to oust the country's military leadership.

(…)

As Russian soldiers in armored personnel carriers secured key installations in Moscow, leading Russian military commanders who had worked with Wagner urged the group's fighters to stop before it was too late. "The last thing we need is to unleash a real civil war inside the country. Come back to your senses," urged Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, the deputy chief of Russian military intelligence.

(…)

"The evil that the military leadership of the country brings forward must be stopped. They have forgotten the word justice, and we will return it," Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on Wagner's social media Friday. "Anyone attempting resistance will be considered a threat and immediately destroyed. This includes all the checkpoints on our path and any aircraft above our heads."

Friday's events showed the depth of political crisis inside Russia after 16 months of grueling war marked by a series of military setbacks. Pressure is rising on Putin to squelch any threat that Prigozhin now poses to his power, and to Russia's ability to continue waging the war. Putin, so far, hasn't made any public statements about the drama unfolding in Russia.

(…)

For the past several months, Prigozhin has been focusing his vitriol on Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Earlier on Friday, he accused Shoigu of leading Russia into war in Ukraine on a false narrative in order to get awards and a promotion in rank.

Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russian troops in Ukraine who, unlike Shoigu and Gerasimov, has been repeatedly praised by Prigozhin, made a late-night video appeal asking Wagner's troops not to obey the group's owner.

"Whatever your intentions are at the moment, as valiant as somebody told you they may be, this is a stab in the back both for the country and the president," he said. "This is a military coup."

(…)

In Friday's recordings, Prigozhin said that he has 25,000 men under arms but also considers the entire army, and the entire Russian society, his strategic reserve.Russian commentators reacted to this turn of events with shock.

(…)

Earlier in the day, Prigozhin said Shoigu lied to Russians and to Putin when he told a "story about the crazy aggression from the Ukrainian side and the plans to attack us with the entire NATO bloc." In an implied criticism of Putin, he added that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have agreed to a deal if the Kremlin had deigned to negotiate.”

“Vladimir Putin has vowed to crush an armed insurrection led by the warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, describing the rebel militia making their way towards Moscow as a treasonous “stab in the back”.

The Russian president labelled the first coup attempt in three decades as a “deadly threat to our statehood” and compared it with the 1917 revolution that led to the collapse of imperial Russia.

(…)

Russian military helicopters fired on a convoy of Wagner troops and armoured vehicles, including tanks, rumbling north along a highway towards the capital, according to unverified videos published on social media.

The convoy, which also appears to contain mobile air defence systems, advanced steadily from Rostov towards Moscow despite “combat operations” by regular armed forces, and in the early evening of Saturday was abound 350km from the capital’s outer ring road, where Russian troops have set up checkpoints.

If the convoy is able to advance without hindrance, they could reach Moscow before midnight local time.

(…)

The insurgency is the most serious threat to Putin’s decades-long rule, and comes after months of public infighting between Prigozhin and the country’s armed forces.

“Prigozhin’s mutiny is the greatest challenge to date of the rule of Vladimir Putin,” said Andrius Tursa, eastern Europe analyst at Teneo. “Even if the mutiny fails, the crisis events will only exacerbate perceptions of the regime’s weakness.”

Wagner’s rapid advance sparked an emergency call between G7 nations who agreed “to co-ordinate closely”, and enhanced security measures in Nato countries bordering Russia, which possesses one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals.

(…)

In Kyiv, the crisis was a “window of opportunity” for its forces to push ahead with a counter-offensive to liberate territory occupied by Russian troops, said Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister. She added that the decision to invade Ukraine had triggered “the inevitable degradation of the Russian state”.

Putin’s pledge on Saturday to crush the attempted coup came hours after Prigozhin announced he had “blockaded” Rostov and the headquarters of Russia’s military command centre, responsible for Ukraine operations, as armed, masked men with tanks and armoured vehicles surrounded government buildings.

Putin’s grave address, which did not mention Prigozhin by name but accused his organisation of “blackmail and terrorist methods”, suggests the president has left no room for compromise with his former acolyte. “What we are dealing with is treason. Unchecked ambitions and personal interests have brought about betrayal of our country and our people,” Putin said.

Prigozhin issued a defiant response, saying his Wagner force no longer wanted to live “under corruption, lies, and bureaucracy”.

Sixteen months of war against Ukraine has hamstrung Russia’s economy because of a barrage of western sanctions and an exodus of foreign capital. The conflict has cost tens of thousands of lives and created a dangerous patchwork of competing militias and security forces.

(…)

The extraordinary decision to launch a motorised assault on Moscow was part of what Prigozhin said was a “march of justice” against defence minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, commander of Russia’s invasion forces, whom he has accused of mishandling the Ukraine invasion.

(…)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said the events had laid bare “Russia’s weakness”.

“The longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later,” he tweeted. “Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself.””

“Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's plane left Moscow on the afternoon of June 24 amid an ongoing rebellion led by PMC Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring project said on Telegram on June 24, citing data from the Flightradar24 service.

The Russian government’s Il-96−300PU aircraft took off from Vnukovo Airport at 14:16 local time and headed for Valdai, one of Putin’s residences, it said.

(…)

The plane reportedly disappeared from radars near the Russian city of Tver (about 150 kilometers from Valdai), the independent Russian website Important Stories (IStories) said on Telegram on June 24. The media outlet claims that the plane is “equipped to control the armed forces.”

(…)

The Ukrainian online publication Ukrainska Pravda cites an unnamed source in the Ukrainian special services who states that “Putin is leaving Moscow, he is being taken to Valdai.”

The Insider, a Russian investigative journalism project, also writes that as of 3 p.m. local time, another Russian special forces aircraft had landed in St. Petersburg.

The independent news outlet Mozhem Obyasnit, in turn, reports that Russian officials are fleeing from Moscow on business jets – at least three flights served by the Special Flight Unit “Rossiya” of the Russian President’s Administration have already departed for St. Petersburg.”

“Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of the Washington, D.C.-based think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, shot down suggestions that the conflict would result in the development of a new Russian civil war, predicting in a series of tweets that Prigozhin's forces would quickly be defeated.

"No, this is not likely to turn into a civil war," Alperovitch tweeted. "It is what in Russia is called 'razborki' (gangland warfare) And it looks like one gang is about to get totally crushed because the other has all the weapons and the security services on their side."

(…)

In additional tweets, Alperovitch suggested that Prigozhin "might not survive the weekend" due to his declaration of war, while commenting that "this show is very entertaining but unfortunately it might be a very short one."”

“Mick Ryan, a retired major general in the Australian military and fellow for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Insider that while exactly what is happening on the ground in Russia remains unclear, "this is the kind of thing where no one wins — everyone loses something."

(…)

"Prigozhin is likely to be the biggest loser," Ryan told Insider. "But Putin and his inner circle will look like they don't have their hands on all the levers of power in a way that some Russian elites would expect them to. And the Russian army will be looking forward at the Ukrainians attacking them and looking behind themselves and their nation, seemingly in chaos — whether that's a reality or not — and it will cause deep disquiet among senior Russian leaders."

Ryan said the deep unease felt by Russian troops after hearing a regime-affiliated official disparage military leadership could be used to Ukraine's advantage as they continue to fend off Russian attacks.

(…)

"I think Prigozhin probably crossed a Rubicon of some type. This is probably the end of the tolerance for his outbursts and demands of the military," Ryan told Insider: "I think it's most likely that things won't turn out well for him. I certainly wouldn't be booking or reserving places in an old people's home if I was him."”

[ammg-old2]

The Wagner Group, a mercenary force that is effectively an arm of the Putinist state, has been very good at meddling in the politics of countries other than Russia—and ensuring that its preferred regime either takes or stays in power. Before Wagner’s fighters became infamous over the past few months for their extremely brutal attacks on the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the group honed its expertise in political control mainly in Africa, supporting governments that served its interests in the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Libya, among other states.

In that light, what we’ve witnessed over the past 24 hours has every appearance not of a spontaneous mutiny but of an extremely well-planned attempt to manipulate President Vladimir Putin and even threaten his rule. Within a day, what looked like a pretty far-fetched stab in the dark evolved into a military incursion approaching the gates of Moscow. This has resulted, the latest developments suggest, in a deal with Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. If that agreement meets one of his central demands—the removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov—that would potentially give Prigozhin greater say over the Russian war effort.

What has become clear is how well plotted this operation was. Putin’s onetime caterer of choice, Prigozhin has emerged as one of the most ruthless operators in the Russian oligarchy—and this political move is perhaps his pièce de résistance.

What can we tell so far? Prigozhin’s preparations for this operation—at least as a contingency plan—must have been in the works for months. Military supplies, including armored vehicles and air-defense systems, had to be stockpiled and moved into place inside Russia itself. All of Prigozhin’s very public complaining about being deprived of supplies by the Russian military now appear to have involved an element of crocodile tears. Prigozhin and his supporters were not only able to send a significant military force into action last night, but they also had a logistical network to back it that was capable of moving hundreds of miles in a day. The Russian army now trying to resist Ukraine’s counteroffensive probing must be looking on in envy.

The timing of the plot seems shrewdly chosen. The Ukrainian counteroffensive began in earnest almost three weeks ago, and the bulk of the Russian army—an estimated 80 to 90 percent of its strength—has been deployed to Ukraine. Much of that force has already seen combat, and a significant portion of its reserves are also now in the field. At the same time, the Ukrainians have gone to great lengths to degrade the Russian army’s logistical capacity in Ukraine.

The consequence of all this was that Putin could not easily draw upon those forces to hold Wagner off. He would have had to order Russian troops facing Ukrainian attacks to retreat—potentially weakening points in Russia’s defensive line. And even if he had ordered them back into Russia, that movement would have taken many days, and more likely weeks, to have a significant effect.

Even an efficient army faces real challenges taking troops out of action, shipping them to a new location, and redeploying them into action. And one thing we can say about the Russian army today is that it is not particularly efficient.

So Prigozhin’s timing seems optimal. Putin would have had to either try to get by with the relatively small number of troops left in Russia—whose loyalty and willingness to fight for him appear in question—or accept the risk and delay of ordering frontline troops to leave Ukraine. (The troop shortage Putin faces seems evident from the fact that the quickest force sent into action has consisted of troops under the orders of the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.)

If Prigozhin was careful in both his preparations and his timing, he also selected ideal locations for his operation. The first two large cities his forces appeared in, Rostov and Voronezh, are among the most important transportation hubs for the Russian army in Ukraine. These cities, with their large railway systems, have been used to stockpile military equipment. By seizing control of them, Prigozhin planted his boot on the windpipe of the Russian army.

Whether the Wagner fighters felt that they could count on wider support remains a mystery, but striking, almost shocking, was the lack of organized military resistance to Wagner’s maneuvers—even as the group’s motorized military column advanced on Moscow itself. The operation seems to have faced just a handful of mostly ineffective attacks, but very little evidence of organized resistance on Putin’s behalf. According to some reports, Wagner shot down much of the aerial-attack force sent against it, including six Russian helicopters and one fixed-wing aircraft. This would equal Russia’s losses on some of the heaviest days fighting against Ukraine.

For now the question of whether Prigozhin will benefit from all of this planning remains. Reports have emerged that Putin has been forced to cut a deal with Prigozhin, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, to call off the Wagner Group. The details are still emerging, but the plain fact that Putin was willing to settle after calling Prigozhin a criminal earlier in the day is telling. If he agrees to sacrifice Shoigu and Gerasimov, that will be even more significant—and a triumph for Prigozhin. But if, after the Wagner Group’s withdrawal, Shoigu and Gerasimov are still in place, all of Prigozhin’s planning might have been in vain. In that case, he will soon have to start making new plans—if he wants to stay alive.

[mariacallous]

By Lucian Kim, a global fellow with the Wilson Center in Washington and NPR’s former Moscow bureau chief.

When I saw the first images of armed men in ragtag uniforms taking over the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday morning, I was immediately reminded of the “little green men” who began showing up in cities in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. Like the Russian troops and soldiers-of-fortune who began the Kremlin’s covert invasion of Ukraine, the fighters in Rostov displayed no insignia as they seized key buildings, including the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District. Just as in Ukraine nine years ago, there was no resistance from local law enforcement officers, who chose life over a fight with determined gunmen.

This weekend’s lightning takeover of Rostov by the Wagner mercenary group was the first step in an armed mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the ex-con who rose to become Russia’s most infamous battlefield commander. From there, the Wagner forces began a march on Moscow until Prigozhin abruptly ordered his men to turn around and return to their bases. In the space of 24 hours, the full madness of Vladimir Putin’s dictatorship was on display. The blowback of his attack on Ukraine was symbolized by a Wagner tank, marked with the letter “Z,” which stands for the Kremlin’s war effort, pointing not at Ukrainians but other Russians.

Prigozhin said his beef was with the military leadership, which he accused of trying to destroy the Wagner Group. He has a history of publicly insulting Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, and getting away with it. But Prigozhin’s open show of arms on Russian soil sent a challenge to the Kremlin that Putin could no longer ignore. In a televised address, the Russian president called Wagner’s mutiny a “stab in the back” and warned of civil war. Putin even invoked the violent collapse of the Russian Empire in World War I, though he did not mention Tsar Nicholas II, the disgraced ruler murdered by Russian revolutionaries.

There is another similarity to World War I that Putin did not mention: corruption and incompetence in the Russian military, as well as the inhumane treatment of its own soldiers. Anger with Russia’s top brass has not been limited to Wagner, and Prigozhin’s rage may well extend to the ranks of the Russian military. At the very least, that Prigozhin’s army was able to travel hundreds of miles unhindered shows that the Kremlin lacks the wherewithal to put down a domestic rebellion, especially when its best troops are fighting in Ukraine.

Despite the drama of the situation, a mutiny by Russia’s scariest people should not come as a surprise. The Kremlin allowed Prigozhin to recruit in prisons, which filled Wagner’s fighting force with desperate convicts. Prigozhin has long been the Kremlin’s man for dirty deeds, from interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential election with his so-called troll farm to fighting undercover in Ukraine, Syria, and the Central African Republic. The Kremlin could deny any connection to Prigozhin, and Prigozhin, of course, denied hiring trolls and warriors. When an unknown number of Wagner contractors in Syria were killed by U.S. forces in 2018, the Kremlin response was muted, since officially they were not members of Russia’s armed forces.

It’s likely that Putin originally imagined Wagner as a Russian version of Blackwater, the U.S. private military contractor that came to prominence in the Iraq War. Wagner mercenaries in Syria and Africa played the part, wearing baseball caps and wraparound sunglasses while toting serious guns. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, Prigozhin stepped out of the shadows to claim ownership of Wagner—and credit for its costly victories. A sledgehammer became the unofficial symbol of the Wagner Group after Prigozhin said one of his fighters had been executed with the tool as punishment for switching to the Ukrainian side.

For Putin, the Wagner mutiny is a self-inflicted wound, the result of his suicidal war against Ukraine. Putin could have chosen to stay on the track of a middle-income economy, with oil and gas exports to Europe guaranteeing enough money to sate his cronies, repress his enemies, and keep the rest of the country quiet, if not happy. Yet the longer he stayed in power, the less interested Putin became in being remembered simply as the leader who stabilized Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. That was not enough. Putin wanted the legacy of restoring an empire, beginning with Ukraine.

At first, the mission of the “little green men” he sent into eastern Ukraine was to turn the country into a failed state by embroiling it in a perpetual, low-level war. But Ukrainians defied Russia, and even after the 2022 invasion, they rallied to their country’s defense and did not let it collapse. Though battered and bloodied, Ukraine is unified and clear about its purpose. Now Russia looks like the failed state. Nobody in Russia understands what the war in Ukraine is about. And after Prigozhin’s rebellion, nobody knows if that war might not still come to Russia. Who will defend Putin? And who will go for Prigozhin?

Under an agreement brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, charges against Prigozhin will be dropped, and he will be allowed safe passage to Belarus. But the deal hardly eliminates the threat that Prigozhin—or someone like him—poses to the Kremlin in the future. It is unclear if we are witnessing the beginning, middle, or end of Putin’s end. What is certain is that it is the final chapter of his rule.

[tomorrowusa]

Are Russians moving to your block? It may be a good idea to stock up on Javelins and HIMARS.

Not sure of the origin of the cartoon or whether or not it was modified. But it captures the spirit of Russian imperialism well.

As for the actual war, UK Defence Intelligence reports that the Russian generals in charge of the invasion are more concerned with the troops’ shaving habits and hair styles. I suppose that Defense Minister Shoigu and Gen. Gerisamov want the Russian Army to look more presentable when Ukrainian drones spot them.

The abject stupidity of the Russian leadership puts them in a class with George Santos.

[sometimesigif]

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[ravenkings]

Vladimir Putin’s generals vulnerable despite surviving revolt – FT

There was no sound on the brief video of Sergei Shoigu published on Monday morning or any indication of where Russia’s defence minister was as he pored over a battlefield map. 

 But the seemingly mundane footage was the first evidence that Shoigu was still in his job. Neither he nor Valery Gerasimov, commander of Russia’s invasion force, have been seen in public since Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an extraordinary coup attempt to oust them on Friday. 

Though Prigozhin and his Wagner paramilitaries ultimately halted their march on Moscow, with the warlord agreeing to leave Russia, he has left both men increasingly vulnerable in his wake. 

The failed revolt has given Russian president Vladimir Putin a stark choice — whether to fire the generals or let them remain in command of his faltering invasion of Ukraine, with both options carrying a significant risk of further blowback both for the war and his regime, analysts say. 

“Shoigu and Gerasimov are so bad in their jobs that it’s dangerous to Putin to leave them in place,” said Dara Massicot, a senior political scientist at the US-based Rand Corporation. “But loyalty and stability are number one for Putin. I just don’t see how he’s going to have these terms dictated to him like this.”

For months, Prigozhin has taken aim at Gerasimov and Shoigu, blaming them for Russia’s military shortcomings in Ukraine and portraying them as inept leaders who were sitting comfortably in Moscow as Russian soldiers died on the battlefield. 

By Sunday, some Russian military analysts were speculating that Shoigu and Gerasimov could be two additional casualties of the failed coup, after Prigozhin and his fighters travelled half the distance from the Ukrainian border to Moscow, captured a military base and took down several army helicopters — all within a matter of hours. 

“Shoigu and Gerasimov are now obvious lame ducks and they will be removed, I think,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defence think-tank. He did not exclude the possibility that the two men’s departure could have been part of the brokered deal that led to Prigozhin standing his men down. The Kremlin has denied this. 

The damage to Russia’s prestige has been such that even pro-war commentators on state television and social media admit that the coup called the entire war into question. 

“This is a serious blow to the authority of the country and the authority of the president,” Karen Shakhnazarov, a Kremlin-linked film director, said on a popular online livestream show. “There was a feeling here that everything was unshakeable, and that turned out not to be the case.” 

Should Shoigu and Gerasimov ultimately be forced out, it would mark a dramatic fall for both men — one a player in the slippery Russian political hierarchy, the other a longstanding military official who became the commander of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

The first — Shoigu — is the longest-serving minister in Russia who took over the defence brief in 2012 after previously serving for decades as the emergency services minister. That job afforded him a public profile to rival Putin’s, with televised appearances arriving by land or by helicopter at every man-made or natural disaster in the country. 

Over the years, he accompanied Putin on holiday trips to Siberia, the two men posing together foraging for mushrooms; sporting sheepskin coats while dining outside in the snowy setting; and spearfishing shirtless in the summer. 

In more recent years, scrutiny had grown over the fame and business dealings of Shoigu’s family members, who had become targets of hardline ire for their privileged lifestyle and seeming insulation from the war’s consequences.

Gerasimov, meanwhile, feuded with commanders who disagreed with his brutal tactics in Ukraine, which generals and militia members alike thought sacrificed too many men for too few gains. 

Prigozhin’s criticism of Shoigu and Gerasimov — and the Russian military more broadly — has festered for months. In one video this spring Prigozhin railed against the backdrop of a Russian graveyard. “You sit in your expensive nightclubs and your kids enjoy life making YouTube videos . . . These guys are dying so you can get fat in your wood-panelled offices.” 

The reception Wagner’s men got in Rostov shows the popularity of Prigozhin’s tirades against the army leadership. On Saturday morning, when Prigozhin demanded a face-off with Shoigu and Gerasimov, Vladimir Alekseyev, deputy head of Russian military intelligence, laughed: “Take them!”

When Wagner left the southern city that was the launch pad for the coup, crowds waved, cheered and took selfies with Prigozhin — but booed the security forces who came to replace them. 

The main trigger for Prigozhin’s putsch appears to have been Putin’s backing of Shoigu’s move to make Wagner sign contracts with the defence ministry earlier this month. 

“The problem with Wagner was growing, it would reach a crisis point after the [declaration]. Putin was likely warned and did nothing,” Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a US defence think-tank, wrote on Twitter. 

Though Putin publicly backed Shoigu’s efforts, Prigozhin vehemently refused — conscious of the damage such an arrangement would do to his standing as a powerful warlord who answered only to Putin, according to a person who has known him since the 1990s. 

“He understands fully well that if he turns into a zero, then Shoigu would have dealt with him at some point. So he went all out and decided to show Putin that he’s the only real one out there and he needs to be left alone with his money,” the person said. “He got it a bit wrong, and everything went to shit, as it usually does [in Russia].” 

Putin’s biggest mistake, Rand’s Massicot said, was to give Shoigu his backing without finding an acceptable way for Prigozhin to save face. “When he threw his support behind the defence ministry, it basically put a target on Prigozhin’s back,” she said. “A competent statesman would have reached out to offer Prigozhin an incentive, or something to buy him off. Clearly, that wasn’t done.” 

With Prigozhin now in exile, Shoigu’s position could even be strengthened, according to the person who knows the warlord — as Putin will see no reason to fire a loyalist. 

“Shoigu’s the only winner,” the person said. “He’ll be the defence minister forever.”