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[usafphantom2]

China intends to turn "elderly" jets into combat drones

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 04/09/2023 - 12:19 in Military, UAV - UAV

China may have found a new use for the old fighters: turning them into combat drones. Some experts fear that masses of these robotic jets could saturate Taiwan's air defense as a prelude to a Chinese invasion.

The J-7 (NATO codename: "Fishcan") is the Chinese copy of the Soviet MiG-21 from the 1960s. Despite being originally a mid-Cold War project, more than 2,400 J-7s were produced in 54 variants until 2013 (Pakistan and Iran still fly in the export version of the F-7). The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has almost 300 J-7s, according to an annual report on military capabilities and defense economics from the International Institute of Strategic Studies.

But with China receiving new fourth and fifth generation fighters - such as the Su-30 designed by Russia, in addition to the J-16 and J-20 poaching - the third generation J-7 has already passed its peak. China may completely retire the aircraft in 2023, according to the state-sponsored Chinese newspaper Global Times.

In the US, obsolete combat aircraft end up deactivated in the cemetery or converted into target drones, as happened with the F-4 and F-16 fighters. But the Global Times suggested a different destination for the J-7: the aircraft "could be modified to become drones and play new roles in modern warfare".

Chinese J-6 jet had already been considered to become a combat drone.

This "new role" may well convert the J-7 into an unmanned aerial combat vehicle (UCAV). This is not the first time that a drone jet plot has appeared; there has been previous speculation that China could convert the J-6 - the Chinese copy of the Soviet MiG-19 fighter from the 1950s - into a UVA.

But observers were quick to note that in 2021, four J-7s joined a group of younger J-16 fighters during exercises near Taiwanese airspace, an unusual step for an aged aircraft that even Taiwanese consider a "jet grandfather". Some wondered if these J-7s were converted into drones, although no evidence has been disclosed.

Why convert a manned fighter into an unmanned combat drone? The most obvious reason would be not to waste expensive jets. But a bigger reason may be the performance. Specific attack drones, such as the U.S. MQ-9 Reaper or the Turkish TB2 Bayraktar, have a top speed of about 130 to 300 miles per hour and tend to be clumsy, propeller-powered flying machines. A J-7 that has turned into a drone can fly almost Mach 2, and the manned fighters are designed for agile and high-speed maneuvers. Combat jets can also carry a wide variety of ammunition, including air-to-air, air-ground and anti-ship missiles, as well as bombs.

“The cost of converting legacy aircraft into UCAVs is relatively low, but they retain many of their manned variant characteristics,” concluded a 2022 study by the Mitchell Institute, a U.S.-based think tank, on the Chinese threat of UCAV to Taiwan. "The converted fuselages have the same performance, maneuverability and load capacity as the original platforms."

Old J-6, J-7 and J-8 fighters, as well as Q-5 attack planes, could be converted into UCAVs and then "used as a means to overload Taiwan's air defense systems, to invade an aircraft carrier or perform basic counterattack operations," warned the Mitchell Institute. For example, China could dispatch hundreds of these UCAVs as a prelude to an invasion of Taiwan, with drones depleting the supply of Taiwan's anti-aircraft missiles before manned attack aircraft entered the scene.

“Like cicadas, which can remain underground for long periods of time, PLAAF can choose to hide a large number of these UCAVs in underground shelters and make them emerge surreptitiously en masse for an attack on Taiwan,” according to the study.

Ironically, the J-7 and other Chinese copies of Soviet Cold War-era aircraft can be more successful as drones than with a pilot in the cockpit. The Global Times described the J-7 as "the first supersonic fighter developed by China that can reach Mach 2". In fact, the J-7 was based on the designs and components of the MiG-21 delivered by the Soviets in 1961. When China and the Soviet Union separated in the early 1960s by the leadership of the communist bloc, Moscow stopped deliveries and China reverse engineered the project.

The J-7 did not have an excellent reputation, according to author Andreas Rupprecht in his book Dragon's Wings. Problems included manufacturing defects, low reliability, a faulty ejection seat and a cockpit sized to fit Russian pilots - instead of Chinese.

Recycling old jets on drones seems economical. But the concept can have problems. Supersonic drones are in their infancy, especially supersonic UCAVs. Can a robot jet fighter perform high-speed combat maneuvers while being piloted by a pilot with limited situational awareness on a ground station, rather than in the cockpit?

And although China can obtain ample spare parts by cannibalizing some of these UCAVs, combat jets tend to require a lot of maintenance, especially a problem-prone project such as the J-7. It can be more economical just to build a lot of cheap drones.

Source: Popular Mechanics

Tags: Military AviationJ-7PLAAF - China Air ForceUCAV

Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work throughout the world of aviation.

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[head-post]

Russia “pierces” Donbas, holds nuclear drills, possibly uses North Korea’s military-industrial complex, US “does not guarantee” Ukraine’s victory

Russian troops continue their offensive in Donbas using North Korea’s latest Bulsae-4 anti-tank missile system, while the US admits it will not be able to ensure Ukraine’s victory in the armed conflict on its own.

Ukrainian media published footage of an armoured vehicle found near Vovchansk. The North Korean Bulsae-4 Anti-Tank Missile Vehicle is a fibre-optic guided missile system capable of engaging rotary and armoured targets at extended ranges of 15 to 25 km.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are approaching the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, “threatening a vital Ukrainian supply line as Moscow continues its slow, grinding offensive,” according to CNN.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the difficult situation in his nightly address to the nation on Sunday, claiming that Ukrainian troops were facing an “extremely challenging” reality in the area.

It is in the Pokrovsk direction that there have been the biggest number of Russian assaults these weeks – the most intense enemy attacks are precisely there and everyone who stops these Russian strikes and destroys this Russian offensive potential is performing one of the most important missions in this war.

Pokrovsk is not a major city, but it serves as a key hub for the Ukrainian military due to its easy access to Kostiantynivka, another military centre. The road connecting the two is used by the Ukrainians to resupply the frontline and evacuate the wounded towards Dnipro.

North Korea’s military-industrial complex

North Korea is expanding factories to produce anti-tank missiles required by Russia, NK Pro reports. According to an analysis of satellite imagery, the country is modernising several factories suspected of producing weapons likely to be of interest to Russia amid a growing arms trade.

The expansion of the two facilities in the northwest comes as the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea) has also begun construction of a rifle factory, reportedly modelled on Russian products. Extensive new underground facilities, potentially for weapons storage, are also being built near other weapons factories.

Analysis of NK Pro satellite images shows that a new project is underway to increase production capacity at the missile-producing Sinuiju Measuring Instrument Factory near the Chinese border. The authors of the analysis link the DPRK’s growing activity with possible work on exports to Russia, while simultaneously not ruling out work on urgent renewal of the country’s military arsenal.

German military analyst Julian Röpke said that at this pace Russian troops could reach Kyiv within two years. He also noted Russia’s progress on the Pokrovsk direction.

I remember people laughing just four months ago that at this rate, Russians wouldn’t get to Kyiv for another 30 years. At the rate they are now advancing east of Pokrovsk, it will only take them two years. Purely theoretical, of course.

Nuclear drills

Russia announced the third stage of a non-strategic nuclear exercise, presumably to persuade Ukraine’s allies to join a military conflict, according to the Defence Ministry.

In accordance with the decision of the president of the Russian Federation, the third stage of the non-strategic nuclear forces exercise has begun. The exercise will work out the issues of preparing units of the Russian Federation Armed Forces for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.

Challenges in aiding Ukraine

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko described the economic situation in the country as critical, according to Ukrainian media. He stated that the two main problems of the Ukrainian government were the “hole” in the country’s state budget of 500bn hryvnias (about $12bn) and the need to close it as soon as possible.

Marchenko said that it was necessary to find money as soon as possible to cover the deficit and avoid an economic crisis, as there was very little time left. He predicted that Ukraine’s budget next year would face an “additional” deficit of up to $12bn. According to Marchenko’s calculations, the ministry had to increase defence spending by $4bn in the first quarter of this year.

US distancing

Assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, James O’Brien, stressed that the United States could not ensure Ukraine’s success in its war against Russia alone. He expressed the opinion during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Earlier it was reported that Germany was cutting its support for Ukraine as it saw no prospects for a Ukrainian victory. Meanwhile, the EU is in a wait-and-see mode as the US presidential election in November will largely determine the future of aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Meanwhile, Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability Mallory Stewart stated that the US would not give up support for Ukraine for the sake of resuming dialogue with Russia.

According to the Pew Research Center, 62% of Republicans say the United States is not obliged to help Ukraine fight Russia. Americans are generally divided evenly on whether the United States is obliged to help Ukraine (48% say it is obliged, 49% say it is not).

Americans remain divided over the extent of US aid to Ukraine. Today, 29% of Americans say the US is providing too much support to Ukraine, and a similar proportion indicate it is providing roughly the right amount (26%). About two in ten (19%) say the US is not providing enough support, and a quarter are not sure.

The new poll, which surveyed 9,424 American adults, was conducted from 1 to 7 July 2024, before President Joe Biden announced he was abandoning his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Read more HERE

[credenceresearchdotblog]

The LNG storage tank market is projected to grow from USD 16,929.79 million in 2024 to USD 28,828.58 million by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.88%. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has emerged as a pivotal element in the global energy landscape, primarily due to its efficiency and lower environmental impact compared to other fossil fuels. As the demand for LNG rises, so does the need for effective and secure storage solutions. The LNG storage tank market is thus witnessing substantial growth, driven by advancements in technology, increased production capacities, and a growing emphasis on cleaner energy sources.

Browse the full report at https://www.credenceresearch.com/report/lng-storage-tank-market

Market Dynamics

The LNG storage tank market is influenced by several factors:

1. Rising Demand for LNG: With countries striving to reduce their carbon footprint, LNG is increasingly being adopted as a cleaner alternative to coal and oil. This surge in LNG consumption necessitates the expansion of storage infrastructure.

2. Technological Advancements: Innovations in storage tank design and materials have enhanced the efficiency and safety of LNG storage. Cryogenic technology, which involves the storage of LNG at extremely low temperatures, is a critical component of these advancements.

3. Global Trade: The globalization of the LNG market, with significant exports from countries like Qatar, Australia, and the United States to energy-hungry nations in Asia and Europe, is propelling the demand for large-scale storage facilities at both export and import terminals.

4. Regulatory Frameworks: Stringent environmental and safety regulations are influencing the design and construction of LNG storage tanks. Compliance with these regulations ensures the safe handling of LNG, minimizing the risk of leaks or explosions.

Market Segmentation

The LNG storage tank market can be segmented based on type, material, and application.

1. By Type: - Above-ground Tanks: These are the most common type, used extensively due to their ease of inspection and maintenance. - Underground Tanks: Preferred in areas with space constraints or where aesthetic considerations are important.

2. By Material: - Steel: Widely used for its strength and durability. - 9% Nickel Steel: Preferred for its excellent performance at cryogenic temperatures. - Aluminum: Lightweight and corrosion-resistant, suitable for certain applications.

3. By Application: - LNG Import Terminals: Facilities that receive and store LNG for regasification and distribution. - LNG Export Terminals: Sites where LNG is stored before being shipped to international markets. - Peak Shaving Plants: Facilities that store LNG to be used during periods of high demand.

Regional Insights

The LNG storage tank market exhibits varying trends across different regions:

1. Asia-Pacific: Dominates the market due to high LNG consumption in countries like China, Japan, and South Korea. The region's focus on energy security and diversification is driving investments in LNG infrastructure.

2. North America: The U.S. is a major player, both as a producer and exporter of LNG. The shale gas boom has led to increased LNG production, necessitating robust storage solutions.

3. Europe: The region is expanding its LNG infrastructure to reduce dependency on Russian gas and enhance energy security. Countries like Germany and the UK are investing in LNG storage facilities.

4. Middle East and Africa: Qatar, a leading LNG exporter, is expanding its storage capacities to support its ambitious production targets. In Africa, emerging LNG projects in Mozambique and Nigeria are creating opportunities for storage tank manufacturers.

Future Prospects

The future of the LNG storage tank market looks promising, with continued investments in LNG infrastructure and technological advancements driving growth. The transition towards cleaner energy sources, coupled with the increasing global trade of LNG, will sustain the demand for efficient and safe storage solutions. However, challenges such as high initial investment costs and stringent regulatory requirements must be navigated.

Key player:

Linde Plc (Ireland)

McDermott International Inc. (US)

Wartsila (Finland)

Inox (India)

Carbon Energy Group (US)

TransTech Energy Ltd. (US)

IHI Corporation (Japan)

Air Water Inc. (Japan)

Cimc Enric (China)

Chart Industries (US)

Isisan A.S. (Turkey)

Cryolor (France)

Segmentation:

Based on type:

Self-Supportive

Non-Self-Supportive

Based on material type:

Steel

9% nickel steel

Aluminum Alloy

Others (7% nickel steel, concrete)

Based on region:

North America

Europe

APAC

MEA

South America

Browse the full report at https://www.credenceresearch.com/report/lng-storage-tank-market

About Us:

Credence Research is committed to employee well-being and productivity. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, we have implemented a permanent work-from-home policy for all employees.

Contact:

Credence Research

Please contact us at +91 6232 49 3207

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FRP tanks refer to tanks made from fiberglass reinforced plastic (FRP) materials. FRP tanks are commonly used in a variety of industrial applications, including water treatment, chemical processing, and oil and gas production.

FRP tanks are lightweight, strong, and corrosion-resistant, making them an ideal choice for storing corrosive chemicals and other materials. The tanks are made by layering fiberglass and resin in a mold and allowing the materials to cure. The resulting tank is a composite structure that combines the strength and durability of fiberglass with the chemical resistance of plastic.

FRP tanks can be designed and fabricated to meet specific requirements for size, shape, and capacity. They can also be customized with various fittings and accessories, such as valves, vents, and level sensors. Additionally, FRP tanks can be designed for above-ground or underground installation, depending on the application.

[mariacallous]

The Kyiv Independent Ukraine Daily: Wednesday, December 28

Russia bans oil exports to countries that abide by $60 price cap. The ban on crude oil exports will come into effect on Feb. 1, but the date for the oil products ban will be determined by the Russian government and could be after Feb. 1.

ISW: Putin’s statement of readiness for negotiations with Ukraine is bluff for West. The statement was part of “a deliberate information campaign,” spreading the false narratives that Ukraine had disrupted Russia’s diplomatic efforts prior to the full-scale invasion, according to the D.C.-based think tank.

President’s Office: Russia shells maternity hospital in Kherson. “They shelled a place where two children were born today. Before the attack, doctors managed to complete a caesarean section. There are five women after childbirth at the institution,” he said, adding that “miraculously” there were no casualties.

National Bank: Ukraine’s GDP to fall by one third in 2022; Russian attacks on energy system imperil economy. Russian attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure also reduce the demand for banking services and lead to additional credit losses, according to the deputy head of the National Bank.

Forbes: Ukraine’s wealthiest 20 lose over $20 billion due to Russia’s full-scale invasion. Russia’s all-out invasion slashed the net worth of Ukraine’s wealthiest, destroying plants and factories and shrinking the country’s economy by a third.

Ukraine seizes $54 million worth of assets of Kremlin-linked Russian oligarch Usmanov. Authorities have seized more than 160,000 tons of Usmanov's iron ore stored in underground warehouses at several of Ukraine’s seaports.

Ukrenergo: Power shortage in Ukraine ‘slightly reduced.’ The power deficit in Ukraine has been "slightly reduced" due to an increase in production by the country's power plants, Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo reported on Dec. 27.

Russia has damaged more than 700 critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine since Feb. 24. First Deputy Interior Minister Yevhen Yenin said on Dec. 27 that at least 702 critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine have been hit since the start of the full-scale invasion. Those facilities include gas pipelines, electrical substations and bridges. Russian attacks have destroyed more than 35,000 objects in Ukraine, Yenin said.

Russian-controlled church may lose control of part of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra on Jan. 1. Ukraine’s Culture Ministry will recommend terminating the Russian-backed church's lease on part of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, Ukraine's most important Orthodox monastery, Culture Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said on Dec. 27.

The human cost of Russia’s war

UN: At least 6,884 civilians killed by Russia's war against Ukraine. According to the United Nations human rights agency, Russia's war against Ukraine has killed at least 6,884 civilians and injured at least 10,947 from Feb. 24 through Dec. 26. Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with wide area effects, including shelling from heavy artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles and air strikes.

Reintegration Ministry: Ukraine retrieves bodies of 42 fallen soldiers. In total, the bodies of 869 Ukrainian soldiers have been returned since May.

Russian attacks across 8 Ukrainian oblasts injure 3 people over past day. Russian strikes on Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts wounded three people over the past day, according to local authorities.

International response

Germany allocates 35 million euros to support children in Ukraine. Germany has contributed 35 million euros ($37.3 million) to the UN children’s fund (UNICEF) in Ukraine to support Ukrainian children during Russia’s war, Germany’s embassy to Ukraine said.

Health ministry: Kazakhstani businesses donate 41 generators to Ukrainian hospitals. Kazakhstani businesses have given Ukrainian healthcare facilities 41 power generators worth around $500,000 amid power outages across the country, the Health Ministry reported.

Zelensky: Italy considers supplying air defense systems to Ukraine. Following a conversation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Dec. 27 that Italy is considering supplying Ukraine with air defense systems.

[eretzyisrael]

Strengthening the Walls of the Ghetto

This morning I sat down with my newspaper, my coffee, and my cat, to read that the IDF held a ceremony on Tuesday to mark the completion of the massive and sophisticated barrier on the border (or whatever it is) with the Gaza Strip.

They call it an “iron wall,” 65 km long, with a fence that rises to a height of 6m above the ground and a concrete barrier below it whose depth is not specified, but is said to go deep enough to stop the tunnels that Hamas loves to dig. There is also a barrier that extends into the sea at its northern end. The whole system is rich in various kinds of sensors, radar, cameras, and even remotely controlled weapons. The IDF reports that numerous tunnels were discovered and destroyed during the construction of the underground barrier.

The system took three and half years to build at a cost of 3.5 billion shekels, or more than US$ 1.1 billion. That is a lot of money that could be used for many other purposes, but given the situation it was necessary.

There is nothing quite as frightening for civilians living near Gaza or on the northern border near Lebanon than the prospect of a terror tunnel opening up a few meters from their homes. In some cases, residents heard sounds of digging and voices speaking Arabic before a tunnel was discovered. Hamas had plans to kidnap civilians and execute mass casualty attacks through these tunnels, and during Operation Protective Edge in 2014, some 14 tunnels that crossed the border into Israel were destroyed, plus several more inside the strip.

You may recall that Hamas terrorists infiltrated through a tunnel back in 2006, attacked an IDF post near Kerem Shalom at the southern end of the strip, killed two IDF soldiers and wounded several others including Gilad Shalit, who was carried back through the tunnel to Gaza, where he was held for more than six years. He was ultimately released in exchange for 1,027 prisoners in Israeli prisons, many of them murderers serving long sentences. These prisoners represented both Hamas and other terrorist factions, and many returned to terror activities.

But barriers in general have not proven effective deterrents to attack, because ways are almost always found to bypass or neutralize them, as happened with the Maginot and Bar-Lev lines. And while Hamas may not be able to go over or through the new barrier, they can still launch rockets and fire mortar shells over it, as well as release incendiary and explosive balloons to be carried by the prevailing winds into nearby fields and Jewish communities. The inexpensive rockets, even when most of them are intercepted by Iron Dome, comprise an effective form of economic warfare, with each Iron Dome launch costing some $40,000 (usually at least two interceptors are fired at each incoming rocket at a cost of $40,000 each).

Just as the mounted cavalry was neutralized by the machine gun, and the machine gun made less effective by the tank, Hamas rockets are presently neutralized (except economically) by Iron Dome. But the advent of precision-guided rockets and drones can change the equation. Today we know that Hezbollah has some quantity of them, and probably Hamas has some or will get some soon.

The new barrier also doesn’t prevent Hamas from exporting subversion to sympathetic Arabs in Judea/Samaria and even among Arab citizens of Israel.

Those of you who regularly read my columns know what’s coming. Pure defensive measures, building the ghetto walls higher and stronger, can only hold an enemy at bay, not defeat him. And technological advances by the aggressor, like precision-guided rockets, can tip the balance quickly. The only way to defeat an enemy is by moving from defense to offense. So while defensive technology, like the barrier, may be necessary for survival, it is not sufficient for victory.

Everything I’ve said so far deals only with the tangible or kinetic aspects of the conflict. The psychological aspect is another story entirely. The message that we send to ourselves, our friends, and our enemies, by our reliance on defensive technology and tactics, is that it is if not acceptable, it is still understandable that savage Jew-haters will continue to bombard our country with the intent to kill as many of us as possible. And soon – this, actually, has already happened – many people begin to think that it is acceptable after all. We become the guy at the carnival who sticks his head through a canvas sheet and dodges balls thrown by the patrons.

For the sake of our national honor as well as to maintain deterrence, such a situation cannot be allowed to stand.

Hamas is a deadly infection, and it has turned Gaza into a pocket of pus on the side of our country. Walling it off is only a temporary expedient; curing the disease will require wiping out the bacteria that cause it. The danger to our citizens in the south and ultimately in the entire country can only be ended by crushing Hamas as a military and political force, which calls for an intensive campaign, including a ground incursion.

It’s sometimes suggested that if Israel destroys Hamas, then what will arise in its place will be worse. The answer is that in that case, we’ll need to destroy the replacement as well. It is also said that the expense and difficulty of ruling the strip in the event that there is no acceptable autonomous leadership will be too great.

But keep this in mind: in January of 2009 Israel was poised for a ground invasion of Gaza, which was called off after Tzipi Livni was summoned to the US and apparently given an ultimatum by officials of the incoming Obama Administration (the same one that supported Hamas’ parent group, the Muslim Brotherhood, in Egypt). Since then, we have found it necessary to have four small but costly wars, and to spend 3.5 billion shekels on a barrier – and the threat remains. What if we had gone ahead and conquered Gaza and killed the war criminals leading Hamas?

Or go back further, to 2005, before Hamas had control of the strip. What if Israel had not withdrawn, if we had not destroyed numerous successful Jewish communities and displaced 8,000 people? What would the situation look like today? Would it be better or worse? Would it have been more “costly and difficult” than a series of wars and the building of a massive barrier?

I think the answer is clear. Cowering behind the walls of the ghetto is a poor idea both practically and psychologically. Rather, we must bring Hamas to total defeat, like Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.

Abu Yehuda

[antoine-roquentin]

One might reasonably assume that workers are a core part of Putin’s base of support. When protests against falsified election results broke out in Moscow and St. Petersburg in 2011–12, with demonstrators calling for a “Russia without Putin,” Igor Kholmanskikh, a factory foreman at the Ural Tank Factory in Nizhniy Tagil, told the president on national television, “If the militia…can’t handle it, then me and the guys [muzhiki] are ready to come out and defend stability.” Putin’s administration played up this event considerably, with Putin later appointing Kholmanskikh, despite his lack of relative credentials, as the presidential representative for the Urals Federal Region. He successfully deflected those earlier protests, as some put it, by pitting “rural and Rust Belt Russia against urban and modernizing Russia.”

Since then, however, Russia’s economy has stagnated, with real wages declining for a number of years. Despite its reliance on oil and gas exports, Russia still has numerous large industrial enterprises left over from the Soviet era, including hundreds of often struggling “monotowns”—one-industry cities and towns reliant on a single factory, many built during Stalinist industrialization. A few years after workers pledged their support for Putin, the Urals Tank Factory was faced with bankruptcy.

Not every Russian (or Belarussian) is willing to go out in the streets in support of abstract political demands. But they have clear concerns about social welfare, and when political demands are combined with concrete grievances about falling wages or cuts in social benefits, they can become explosive. In Belarus, Lukashenko has remained in power since 1994 through what some have called “socialism with Russian subsidies” in the form of below-market prices for oil and gas. With those subsidies now gone, Lukashenko was forced to cut benefits and raise taxes. Presaging the current uprising, in 2017 Belarusians took to the streets in large numbers to protest a new tax on “parasitism”—essentially a tax on underground employment—with demands for Lukashenko to resign. The tax was scrapped.

Recently, Putin has also been forced to cut back on popular social provisions. In 2018 his government unleashed a rollback of pension benefits, leading to widespread protests and a significant drop in his popularity. That made the recent referendum on amending the constitution, which could allow him to remain in office until 2036, all the more challenging. The coronavirus pandemic has only made the situation worse.

Still, why might protests by workers pose a particular challenge? Beyond the economic damage well-placed strikes can impose, working-class symbolism continues to resonate in Russian society even 30 years after the collapse of Communism. The name “Novocherkassk”—a town in southern Russia where protesting workers were shot and killed by Soviet security forces back in 1962—remains synonymous with state repression against workers. Putin certainly remembers the event, because in 2008 he publicly laid flowers at a monument to the workers killed. A few months later, as the global economic crisis deepened, when residents of Pikalyovo protested the shuttering of their factories by blockading a major highway and creating a 400-kilometer traffic jam, Putin helicoptered in to dress down factory owner and oligarch Oleg Deripaska on national television, in a scene that became known as “the bending of an oligarch.” In a prolonged downturn, however, a savior can come to be seen as a villain.

To preempt workers from joining the political opposition, the Putin regime has tried to maintain what some have called a “discursive divide” between legitimate social and economic protest and illegitimate (and often harshly suppressed) political protest. Yet, as economic conditions worsen and the regime imposes austerity measures, that divide can crumble. When the government introduced a road tax on long-haul trucks in late 2015, Russian truck drivers from the Caucasus to the Far East were instantly united in opposition, and while they initially pleaded, “President, help us!,” after little more than a year they were demanding his removal from office.

When protests have become political, the rulers in Russia and in Belarus have sought to portray the demonstrators as feckless youth backed by foreign agents. Putin called the 2011–12 Russian protesters “chatterboxes” in contrast to “the real Russian people, the Russian working man, the man of labor,” while Lukashenko recently complained that the current protests were being led by “the unemployed.” Such rhetoric will fall flat when the protesters are marching in work uniforms out of factory gates. Moreover, while authoritarian rulers might rely on social divisions to encourage riot police to beat college-educated youth, overt repression against workers—the same class from which many police are drawn—could much more easily result in security force refusals and defections.

As with protests generally, strikes are difficult to carry out in such repressive regimes. In both Russia and Belarus, the major unions—holdovers from the Communist era—remain in the pockets of the ruling elite. Independent unions are much smaller and constantly harassed, though they can suddenly become a powerful voice, as they are now proving in Belarus. Large industrial enterprises in both countries are heavily dependent on state support, a dependence that the state and then managers exploit in order to garner votes for the ruling parties come election time. Yet, interestingly, that dependence is now being inverted in Belarus: In some factories, rather than shutting down production, workers are compelling their bosses to publicly denounce the police repression and fraudulent elections, essentially pulling down a crucial pillar of regime support.

Meanwhile, in Russia, protests have continued since early July in the far east region of Khabarovsk. True, the primary grievance there is political—the removal of a popularly elected governor from an opposition party—but they combine with economic dissatisfaction, and the protesters there are learning from their counterparts in Belarus and calling for workplace strikes.

In the short run, it is unclear how all this will end. The protests in Belarus and Khabarovsk may well fizzle out, as others have in the past. But as Putin looks at the events in Belarus, he no doubt sees his nightmare scenario playing out, with workers leaving the factory gates to join protesters in the city square. In the longer run, Russia’s leadership faces a dilemma: To overcome further economic stagnation that can provoke such protest, it will have to wrestle with a sizable Soviet legacy—its many large industrial enterprises, often struggling to be profitable in a global capitalist marketplace.

Yet, should Lukashenko fall, what will happen to the workers of Belarus (and perhaps in the future, to those in Russia)? Could they end up like coal miners at the end of the Soviet Union, providing muscle to bring down a dictatorship, but ushering in neoliberal reforms that threaten their livelihoods? Having now discovered their social power, they may need to keep using it.

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