#US West Texas Intermediate crude futures

[news-line-today]

Crude Oil Prices Advance Amid Rising Gaza Tensions and Saudi Arabia's Price Hike

In the world of oil trading, Monday saw a climb in futures prices as Saudi Arabia announced an increase in June crude prices for most regions. Concurrently, the possibility of a ceasefire deal in Gaza seemed distant, stirring concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict might escalate further in this crucial oil-producing area.

Brent crude futures rose by 51 cents, marking a 0.6% increase to reach $83.47 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also saw a rise, up by 53 cents to $78.64 per barrel, a 0.7% increase.

Last week, both Brent and WTI futures experienced their most significant weekly losses in three months. Brent fell over 7%, and WTI dropped by 6.8%. Investors grappled with weak US jobs data and speculated about the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate adjustments.

As discussions around a Gaza ceasefire unfolded, the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices somewhat eased. However, hopes for an imminent agreement diminished on Sunday when Hamas reiterated its demand for war cessation in exchange for the release of hostages, a demand Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swiftly rejected.

Monday brought further tension as Israel’s military urged Palestinian civilians to evacuate Rafah as part of a ‘limited scope’ operation. While the purpose behind this call remains unconfirmed, speculations arose about its relation to a possible ground assault.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG markets, voiced concerns, stating, “News of Israel’s intentions to extend its operation into Rafah risks derailing a potential ceasefire agreement and reigniting Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, which had shown signs of easing.”

With most long positions in oil cleared last week, the risks now seem tilted towards a rebound in WTI prices, possibly nearing the $80 mark early this week, as suggested by Sycamore.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s decision to raise the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean for June indicates expectations of robust summer demand, further bolstering prices.

Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Research at ING, noted, “After a decline of more than 7.3% last week due to easing geopolitical tensions, ICE Brent has commenced the new trading week on a stronger note, opening higher.”

This development follows Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase June OSPs for most regions amidst a tightening of supplies this quarter.

In China, the world’s leading crude importer, service activity continued its expansionary trend for the 16th consecutive month. Growth in new orders and business sentiment surged, fueling hopes for a sustained economic revival.

In a potential sign of supply tightening, US energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the second consecutive week. According to Baker Hughes, oil rigs fell by seven to 499, marking the most substantial weekly drop since November 2023.

[starseedfxofficial]

Yearly WTI Trends Revealed: Insider Secrets for Smarter Oil Trading The Yearly WTI Game Plan: Secrets Even the Pros Don't Talk About Imagine trying to buy a year's supply of coffee and discovering the price changes every single day. Welcome to the world of crude oil trading! Specifically, WTI (West Texas Intermediate), which is the heartbeat of oil prices and impacts everything from gas prices to your favorite avocado toast. But what if I told you there are yearly patterns hidden beneath the surface—patterns that most traders overlook, even the experienced ones? Grab a mug (hopefully not a year's supply of coffee) because we’re diving into WTI's yearly trends that can revolutionize your trading strategy. The Unseen Yearly Rhythm of WTI Most traders approach WTI like it's a moody friend—always changing and impossible to predict. But here's the hidden secret: WTI follows a yearly rhythm, like a song stuck on repeat. Just like how the best time to buy winter jackets is in spring, there are times of the year when WTI tends to peak or dip based on historical data. Analyzing this gives you a strategic edge that can mean the difference between profits and regrets. According to a study by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), WTI prices are historically higher in late spring and early summer. The reason? Increased gasoline demand, vacations, and a whole lot of people hitting the road. By the time fall rolls around, prices often dip, thanks to refinery maintenance and lower demand. Knowing this rhythm is like having insider knowledge of when the store's going to put your favorite sneakers on sale. "But here's where the real magic happens..." It’s not just about knowing the peak and dip seasons; it’s about timing your entries and exits to profit from these cyclical movements. Let’s dig into some practical tactics you can use to leverage these yearly trends. Seasonal Spread Trading Ever heard of spread trading? No, it’s not the new avocado toast variety—it's an advanced trading strategy that helps minimize risk. Seasonal spread trading with WTI is a hidden gem even many pro traders overlook. You take advantage of the price difference between contracts of different months. For instance, buying a cheaper contract now and selling a more expensive one later (hint: remember that summer spike). This way, you profit from the seasonal changes while minimizing the exposure to unpredictable day-to-day volatility. And let’s add a bit of humor here—spread trading is like buying Christmas gifts in July and selling them at holiday prices to all the late shoppers. It sounds unconventional, but it’s a proven way to gain an edge when dealing with WTI. The Green Energy Wildcard Most traders focus on OPEC meetings or U.S. inventory reports, but there’s an undercurrent that’s changing the game—renewable energy trends. We know what you’re thinking, "What does solar energy have to do with my WTI trades?" Well, a lot, actually. The increasing push for renewable energy is influencing investor sentiment around crude oil. Every year, as governments announce new climate initiatives or push electric vehicle adoption, WTI futures react, often shifting investor focus from long-term bullish to bearish. This wildcard can be your secret weapon. Imagine being able to anticipate price moves because you understand that a major country is implementing a renewable energy policy next quarter. Suddenly, those yearly WTI trends look a lot more predictable, don’t they? Why Most Traders Get It Wrong (And How You Can Avoid It) One major mistake traders make is treating WTI like a one-size-fits-all asset. They think, "If it worked in January, it'll work in August." But oil markets have more mood swings than my uncle when he misses his afternoon nap—and for good reason. Different geopolitical factors, demand cycles, and even hurricanes can shake the market. Here’s a myth-busting fact: despite common belief, crude oil doesn’t always respond directly to inventory changes. Sure, a drop in inventories might signal higher prices, but if it happens during a seasonal maintenance period, demand might not follow through. It’s like trying to sell ice cream in winter—there’s just no demand. Knowing when demand will sync with these inventory reports is where elite traders separate themselves from the herd. How to Predict Market Moves with Precision Wouldn't it be great if we had a crystal ball? Unfortunately, I left mine in the 90s along with my collection of trading cards. But the next best thing is understanding leading indicators that can predict WTI price shifts. For instance, the U.S. rig count often gives a glimpse into future supply trends. If the rig count is rising steadily, it usually means higher future supply, putting downward pressure on prices. Another advanced tactic is tracking CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This gives you insights into what the big institutional players are doing—are they adding to long positions, or are they betting on a drop? Aligning your trades with the big boys can help you ride the wave instead of getting caught under it. The Smart Money's Secret Weapon: Hedging and the Yearly Dance If you’ve ever felt like WTI trades can be like dancing with a clumsy partner—one wrong move, and you're stepping on toes—you're not alone. Smart traders hedge their bets, quite literally. Hedging during specific periods when volatility is expected (like hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico) can save your portfolio from being blown away. Think of hedging as wearing protective gear during a contact sport—sure, you can play without it, but why risk it when you know things could get rough? A Yearly Trading Plan To capitalize on WTI’s yearly movements, you need a plan—a free trading plan can help you set goals, manage risks, and track progress. We offer one at StarseedFX's Free Trading Plan, designed specifically to help traders make sense of cyclical markets like WTI. Start by identifying key seasonal trends, set alerts for significant news, and be ready to adjust your plan if the fundamentals change. In addition, join our StarseedFX Community for live trading insights and daily alerts. The community is buzzing with expert analysis and real-time alerts to help you stay ahead of the curve. The Ninja Tactics for Yearly WTI Trends Trading WTI is not about timing the market with perfection—it’s about using yearly patterns, insider tactics, and a whole lot of smart planning to make the market work for you. Whether it's mastering seasonal spread trading, leveraging the green energy wildcard, or dancing with smart money through hedging, the key is to stay one step ahead by thinking differently. So next time you're looking at a WTI chart, don’t just see the ups and downs—see the rhythm, feel the dance, and, most importantly, trade like you've got the inside scoop. If you want exclusive strategies, don’t forget to check out our Forex Education resources for more of these hidden gems. Let’s turn those charts into profit opportunities! —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated   Read the full article

[accapitalmarket]

Near-term rate cuts kept Wall Street afloat, crude oil retreats

US blue chips ended higher on Thursday, rallying late on amid Federal Reserve rate cut hopes, though tech issues took a tumble on caution ahead of earnings from the world’s biggest company, AI chipmaker Nvidia.

Investors were parsing speeches from Fed members on the prospects for further rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said that future cuts would be dependent on incoming economic data. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman backed a cautious approach to rate cuts amid expectations that the neutral level or end point for rates may be higher than previously expected given that inflation has stalled in recent months.

Investors, however, continue to bet that US interest rates will fall in the near-term, with traders pricing in a 60.6% chance for a 25-basis point cut by the Federal Reserve in December

At the close in New York, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrials Average was up 0.30% at 43,408, while the broader the S&P 500 index ended flat at 5,917, with both having rallied late on from earlier losses.

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But the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite remained weak, though it also ended well off session lows, down 0.1%, at 18,966.

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AI leader Nvidia, which has nearly tripled in value this year, fell 1.1% ahead of its results that were released after the closing bell. The stock dropped another 2.9% after-hours despite the chipmaker delivering third quarter revenue and profits above estimates and better-than-expected revenue guidance for the December quarter, with the figures not a complete blow-out.

Among other weak tech stocks in the session, Alphabet shed 1.3%, while Microsoft fell 1.6%, and Amazon.com lost 0.9%.

But Netflix sidestepped the weakness, adding 1.4% after announcing that last week's boxing bout between YouTube star Jake Paul and former world heavyweight champion Mike Tyson racked up 108 million global viewers, becoming the most-streamed global sporting ever.

And cryptocurrency stocks ticked higher as bitcoin reached a record high above $94,000, with MicroStrategy jumping 10.1% and MARA Holdings up 14.0%.

Away from tech, Target was the biggest casualty, plunging 21.4% after the retailer forecast holiday-quarter comparable sales and profit below Wall Street expectations following a third-quarter estimate miss.

The earnings missed triggered a sell-off by other retailers, with Home Depot down 1.7%.

But fellow home goods retailer Williams-Sonoma surged 27.5%, hitting a new all-time high, after boosting its full-year sales outlook and reporting a Q3 earnings beat.

Red Cat jumped 34.4% after the drone technology firm was selected by the US Army as the production provider for its Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) Program of Record.

Among commodities, oil prices were lower as US crude stocks rose by more than expected last week, although the losses were capped by worries about the intensifying war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine.

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UK Brent Crude was down 0.3%, at $73.11, a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $68.95 a barrel.

Meanwhile, analysts at broker Macquarie forecast that oil prices are shaping up to test new lows next year as the market appears to be pricing in a large crude surplus at a time when the demand outlook looks bleak.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this market commentary is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Trading margin forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors could experience losses in excess of total deposits. You do not have ownership of the underlying assets. AC Capital Market (V) Ltd is the product issuer and distributor. Please read and consider our Product Disclosure Statement and Terms and Conditions, and fully understand the risks involved before deciding to acquire any of the financial products provided by us. The content of this market commentary is owned by AC Capital Market (V) Ltd. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.

[yourreddancer]

Falling oil prices may help push gas below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021 U.S. benchmark oil prices dropped more than 6% on Monday

Oil prices dropped significantly on Monday, offering U.S average gasoline prices at the pump another reason to drop below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021, especially with just over a week left before the U.S. presidential election.

There is “no real catalyst in sight for gasoline” prices to rise, said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, a subsidiary of MarketWatch publisher Dow Jones.

Refineries are in the seventh or eighth inning of turnaround season, he said, implying the end of the season when refineries typically perform planned shutdowns for maintenance and upgrades. Global markets are also “plentiful” in supply, and demand for U.S. gasoline tends to slip a bit into November.

On Monday afternoon, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas was at $3.08, down nearly 13 cents from a month ago and almost 40 cents below a year ago, GasBuddy data show.

As long as crude prices stay low, and there are no disruptions in refining capacity due to geopolitical or weather-related events, gasoline prices should “remain stable,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth US.

Crack spreads, the difference between prices of crude oil and the products make from it such as gasoline, have “decreased significantly since the summer, so prices are unlikely to drop much further, but they’re also unlikely to spike ahead of the election,” she told MarketWatch.

Oil’s drop

A more than 6% drop in oil prices Monday could help to exacerbate the fuel’s price decline.

“The possibility, but not probability of a wider theater of war” wasn’t really a compelling reason to buy oil futures in the first place, and the market was seeing that play out Monday, said Kloza.

On Saturday, Israel stuck military targets in Iran, marking the first time Israel’s military has openly attacked Iran. The move was in retaliation to Iran’s missile strike on Israel on Oct. 1.

The Islamic Republic said the attack caused “limited damage” and Iran issued a statement suggesting that any cease fire in Israel’s ground offensive in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon would outweigh any possible retaliatory strike on Israel.

“Many traders anticipated that Israel would avoid targeting energy-related infrastructure, but the risk of misjudging this was simply too high,” said Babin. That kept much of the market on the sidelines.

Israel’s move was seen as “de-escalatory” and gives Iran an “off ramp and potential for tensions to calm,” she told MarketWatch. Now that the risk has passed, “there’s increased conviction in short positions, leading to greater selling pressure.”

Against that backdrop, oil prices settled sharply lower Monday.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for December  fell by $4.40, or 6.1%, to settle at $67.38 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after a drop to an intraday low of $66.92. Nymex futures for reformulated gasoline dropped along with oil, with the December contract 

 down 11 cents, or 5.4%, to finish at $1.97 a gallon on Nymex, settling below $2 for the first time in October.Front-month WTI oil futuresSource: FactSetAs of Oct. 31, 10:10 p.m. ET

Even before the weekend developments, some forecasts called for supply to outpace demand in 2025.

“Almost anyone without a vested interest believes that supply will easily outpace demand next year” for oil, said Kloza. With that in mind, “there is no compelling reason to buy crude in 2024.”

There’s more than enough oil supply to meet global demand, he said.

Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq will have more crude to export now that temperatures in the Middle East are moderating — some 500,000 barrels to 700,000 barrels per day of crude gets burned by Middle East utilities in the summer and that demand fades with the calendar, Kloza said.

If the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and it allies, together known as OPEC+, begin to gradually reverse their production cuts as planned in December, there could really be a “strong downward trend in oil,” Kloza said adding, however, that he is not convinced that OPEC+ will start reversing the cuts in December.

Election impact

Gasoline prices at the pump can be an important factor as citizens vote in the U.S. election next week.

It’s too difficult to know at this point if the falling oil prices will be significant enough to impact the outcome of the election, said Patrick, De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

There’s a lot of “potential context,” but Monday’s oil prices “haven’t been around long enough to really change the calculus” significantly for gasoline, he told MarketWatch.

Early Monday in a press release, De Haan had pointed out that the national average for gas prices fell for a a second straight week, in part due to a drop in oil prices as Israel avoided attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure, but also due to seasonal decreases in demand, “as is normal for this time of year.”

The median price for U.S. gas prices fell to $2.99 a gallon on Monday, and the national average is likely to soon fall below $3 as well, according to GasBuddy. The U.S. hasn’t seen a sub-$3 a gallon national average since 2021.

Gas prices have been far below record levels, and today’s prices have been “low enough to not be a much talked about issue,” he said. “No matter who is elected, I do expect the seasonally low gas prices to continue into the spring when they will start their seasonal rise.”

[head-post]

Tokyo leads Asian stocks rally

Asian stock indexes rose and the dollar hit a new seven-week high against the yen on Monday after unexpected US labour market data dispelled fears of recession and spurred a sharp rate cut.

US Treasury yields hit two-month highs, extending their gains after a closely watched non-farm payrolls report on Friday showed the economy unexpectedly added the most jobs in six months in September.

Crude oil prices fell from a one-month peak even as Israel bombed targets in Lebanon and Gaza. Monday marked the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack that sparked the war.

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) index, open new tab, led gains in regional shares, up 2.28 per cent as of 05:15 GMT, helped by a weaker yen.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (.HSI), open new tab rose 1.45 per cent, Australia’s stock benchmark (.AXJO), open new tab added 0.68 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi (.KS11), open new tab gained 1.53 per cent. Mainland Chinese stocks remain closed until Tuesday due to the Golden Week holiday.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS), open new tab, climbed more than 1 per cent.

US Dow futures were slightly lower after the money index closed at a record high on Friday following the release of payrolls data.

On Monday, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries hit 3.992% for the first time since August 7. Two-year bond yields rose to 3.965%, a level last seen on August 22. That sent regional bond yields higher, while the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds hit its highest level since August 6 at 0.915%.

Gold fell 0.35% to $2,643 an ounce amid the dollar’s recovery, although it remained not far from last month’s record peak of $2,685.42.

Brent crude futures fell 35 cents to $77.70 a barrel after hitting $79.30 on Friday, the highest since 30 August. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 25 cents to $74.13. They rose to $75.57 on Friday, the highest level since August 29.

Analysts believe that many of the factors that pressured the US dollar over the summer have changed. In particular, recession fears are waning, and price dynamics show that the limits of the dovish reaction function pricing have been reached with this data.

MUFG noted that this is the second time the dollar index has pulled back to the 100.00 support level in recent years. The last time in July 2023, the dollar index tested that level but failed to break below it before posting a strong 7.8 per cent bounce.

The yen fell slightly to 149.10 per dollar, its lowest level since August 16. It then trimmed losses and is trading around 148.40. This followed last week’s more than 4% decline, the biggest weekly percentage drop since early 2009.

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[palmoilnews]

Oil rises on escalating tensions in the Middle East TOKYO: US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by US$1.09, or 1.56%, to US$70.92 per barrel at 2254 GMT on fears of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel. Brent futures will resume trading at 0000 GMT on Wednesday. Brent gained US$1.86, or 2.6%, on Tuesday to settle at US$73.56 a barrel. Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, Israel said, in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), is a major oil producer in the region. "The direct involvement of Iran, an Opec member, raises the prospect of disruptions to oil supplies," ANZ Research said in a note, referring to the conflict. Iran's oil output rose to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August, ANZ added......

[coffeefranchisehub]

Is Coffee Traded More Than Oil?

Coffee is one of the most popular beverages in the world. Millions of people rely on it to kickstart their mornings and boost their productivity. But beyond its delicious aroma and flavor, coffee is also a significant commodity in the global market. Many people wonder how it compares to oil, one of the most traded commodities worldwide. In this article, we will explore whether coffee is traded more than oil, looking at various factors that influence both commodities, their trading volumes, and their impact on the global economy.

The Coffee Market: A Global Perspective

Coffee is not just a drink; it is a multi-billion-dollar industry. The global coffee market is vast, involving numerous players, including farmers, exporters, importers, and retailers. According to the International Coffee Organization, global coffee consumption reached over 166 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2020-2021 coffee year. This figure reflects a steady increase in demand for coffee, particularly in emerging markets.

Types of Coffee Beans

There are two main types of coffee beans: Arabica and Robusta. Arabica beans are known for their smooth flavor and aromatic qualities. They account for about 60-70% of global coffee production. Robusta beans have a stronger, more bitter flavor and are often used in espresso blends. Understanding these types of beans is essential for grasping the dynamics of the coffee market.

Coffee Production

Coffee is grown in over 70 countries, primarily in tropical regions. The top coffee-producing countries include Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia. Brazil alone accounts for about one-third of the world’s coffee production. The geographical conditions, climate, and farming practices in these regions significantly affect the quality and quantity of coffee produced.

Coffee Trading

Coffee is traded on various exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Futures contracts are a common way to trade coffee. These contracts allow buyers and sellers to lock in prices for future delivery. This trading helps stabilize prices and allows producers to hedge against price fluctuations.

Factors Influencing Coffee Prices

Several factors can impact coffee prices, including:

Weather Conditions: Droughts, floods, and other adverse weather events can reduce coffee yields, leading to higher prices.

Global Demand: Changes in consumer preferences and trends can drive demand for coffee, influencing prices.

Currency Fluctuations: Coffee is usually priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, currency fluctuations can impact the purchasing power of coffee-importing countries.

Production Costs: Rising labor and production costs can affect the price of coffee. Farmers may need to increase prices to cover these costs.

The Oil Market: A Global Perspective

Oil is another crucial commodity traded worldwide. It powers vehicles, heats homes, and is a key ingredient in many products. The oil market is complex, with numerous factors influencing prices and trading volumes.

Types of Oil

There are various types of oil, including crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Crude oil is the primary commodity traded in global markets. It is further divided into two main categories: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude. WTI is primarily traded in the United States, while Brent crude is used as a benchmark for oil prices worldwide.

Oil Production

Oil is produced in numerous countries, with major producers including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Canada. The production levels in these countries can greatly influence global oil prices. For example, decisions made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels can significantly impact supply and prices.

Oil Trading

Oil is traded on various exchanges, including the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Futures contracts for oil are widely used, allowing traders to speculate on future price movements. This trading activity is often influenced by geopolitical events, economic data, and changes in supply and demand.

Factors Influencing Oil Prices

Several factors can impact oil prices, including:

Geopolitical Events: Conflicts in oil-producing regions can lead to supply disruptions and price spikes.

Economic Growth: Strong economic growth can increase demand for oil, pushing prices higher.

Technological Advances: Improvements in extraction technologies, such as fracking, can lead to increased oil production and lower prices.

Global Policies: Regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions can impact oil demand and prices.

Comparing Coffee and Oil Trading Volumes

When comparing coffee and oil trading volumes, it is essential to consider several aspects. Both commodities are vital to the global economy, but they are traded in different quantities and contexts.

Coffee Trading Volumes

Coffee trading volumes are substantial but relatively small compared to oil. According to the International Coffee Organization, around 9.9 million tons of coffee were traded globally in 2021. The trading volume on exchanges like ICE for coffee futures contracts can reach several hundred thousand contracts per day during peak trading periods. However, the overall value of the coffee market is dwarfed by that of oil.

Oil Trading Volumes

Oil trading volumes are significantly higher than those of coffee. The global oil market sees billions of barrels traded daily. In 2021, the total volume of crude oil traded globally was approximately 11 billion barrels per day. This staggering figure highlights the importance of oil in the global economy and its role as a primary energy source.

Market Capitalization

The market capitalization of coffee is also much lower than that of oil. The global coffee market is estimated to be worth around $100 billion, while the oil market is valued at over $2 trillion. This difference in market size further illustrates the disparity between the two commodities.

The Importance of Coffee and Oil in the Global Economy

While coffee is an essential commodity, oil has a more significant impact on the global economy. Oil is the backbone of many industries and plays a crucial role in transportation, manufacturing, and energy production. Changes in oil prices can have widespread effects on inflation, economic growth, and consumer behavior.

Coffee’s Role in the Economy

Coffee plays a vital role in the economies of many producing countries. It provides employment for millions of people and is a key export for countries like Brazil and Colombia. The coffee industry supports farmers, traders, and retailers, contributing significantly to local economies.

Oil’s Role in the Economy

Oil, on the other hand, is a cornerstone of the global economy. It fuels transportation, powers industries, and is a critical component of countless products. Fluctuations in oil prices can affect everything from transportation costs to the price of goods in stores. This interconnectivity highlights the importance of oil as a commodity.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while coffee is an essential and widely traded commodity, it does not surpass oil in terms of trading volumes or overall economic impact. The coffee market is significant, providing livelihoods for millions and contributing to local economies. However, oil remains the dominant force in global trade, influencing economies and markets on a larger scale.

Coffee and oil serve different purposes in the global economy. Each has its unique characteristics, trading patterns, and factors influencing prices. Understanding these differences is crucial for anyone interested in the commodities market.

In the end, both coffee and oil are vital to the global economy. They highlight the complexities of trade, consumption, and market dynamics. As consumers, we may enjoy a cup of coffee while driving a car powered by oil, demonstrating the interconnectedness of these two important commodities.

[anshnair]

Commodities Trading: Investing in Physical Goods

Commodities trading is an age-old practice that involves buying and selling physical goods like gold, oil, and agricultural products. Unlike stocks and bonds, which represent ownership in companies or debt, commodities are tangible assets that can be touched, stored, and consumed. Trading in commodities offers investors a way to diversify their portfolios, hedge against inflation, and potentially profit from price movements in global markets. In this blog, we’ll explore the basics of commodities trading, highlight popular commodities, and discuss how to invest in commodities through futures contracts and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Basics of Commodities Trading

What Are Commodities?

Commodities are raw materials or primary agricultural products that can be bought and sold. They are typically standardized and interchangeable with other goods of the same type, regardless of who produces them. Commodities are divided into two main categories:

- Hard Commodities: Natural resources that are mined or extracted, such as gold, oil, and metals.

- Soft Commodities: Agricultural products that are grown or farmed, such as wheat, coffee, and cotton.

How Does Commodities Trading Work?

Commodities trading involves buying and selling these physical goods on various exchanges, often through futures contracts. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific quantity of a commodity at a predetermined price on a future date. The goal of trading commodities is to profit from price fluctuations in these markets. Prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, weather conditions, and other factors.

Why Trade Commodities?

- Diversification: Commodities often move independently of stocks and bonds, providing diversification benefits to a portfolio.

- Inflation Hedge: Commodities like gold and oil tend to retain their value during periods of inflation, making them a popular choice for hedging against rising prices.

- Global Exposure: Investing in commodities provides exposure to global economic trends and events, such as changes in energy demand, agricultural production, and geopolitical tensions.

Popular Commodities

1. Gold

Gold is one of the most widely traded and recognized commodities in the world. It has long been considered a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility. Investors buy gold to protect their wealth, hedge against inflation, and diversify their portfolios. Gold prices are influenced by factors such as interest rates, currency movements, and geopolitical risks.

2. Oil

Crude oil is the lifeblood of the global economy, powering industries, transportation, and heating. As one of the most actively traded commodities, oil prices are highly sensitive to geopolitical events, changes in supply and demand, and economic conditions. The two primary benchmarks for oil are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude, which are traded on exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

3. Agricultural Products

Agricultural commodities include a wide range of products, such as wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, and cotton. These commodities are essential to everyday life and are influenced by factors like weather patterns, crop yields, and global demand. Agricultural commodities are traded on exchanges like the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

4. Metals

In addition to gold, other metals like silver, platinum, and copper are also popular in commodities trading. These metals are used in various industries, from electronics and construction to jewelry and automotive manufacturing. Prices of metals are influenced by industrial demand, mining production, and global economic trends.

How to Invest in Commodities

1. Futures Contracts

Futures contracts are the most direct way to trade commodities. When you buy a futures contract, you agree to purchase a specific quantity of a commodity at a predetermined price on a future date. These contracts are standardized and traded on exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Advantages of Trading Futures:

- Leverage: Futures contracts allow you to control a large position with a relatively small amount of capital, magnifying potential returns.

- Liquidity: Futures markets are highly liquid, with many buyers and sellers, making it easy to enter and exit positions.

- Diversification: Futures provide direct exposure to a wide range of commodities, from metals and energy to agriculture.

Risks of Trading Futures:

- Leverage Risk: While leverage can enhance profits, it also increases the potential for significant losses if the market moves against you.

- Volatility: Commodities markets can be highly volatile, with prices swinging sharply in response to news, weather events, and geopolitical developments.

2. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

For those who prefer a less hands-on approach, ETFs offer a convenient way to invest in commodities. Commodity ETFs are funds that track the price of a specific commodity or a basket of commodities. For example, a gold ETF would track the price of gold, while an oil ETF might track a basket of energy commodities.

Advantages of Investing in ETFs:

- Accessibility: ETFs can be bought and sold on stock exchanges, just like shares of stock, making them easily accessible to individual investors.

- Diversification: Some ETFs track a broad range of commodities, providing exposure to multiple markets with a single investment.

- Lower Risk: ETFs do not involve leverage, reducing the risk compared to futures contracts.

Risks of Investing in ETFs:

- Tracking Error: The price of an ETF may not perfectly track the price of the underlying commodity, leading to potential discrepancies in returns.

- Management Fees: ETFs charge management fees, which can eat into your returns over time.

3. Commodity Stocks and Mutual Funds

Another way to gain exposure to commodities is by investing in stocks of companies involved in the production or extraction of commodities, such as mining companies, oil producers, and agricultural firms. Alternatively, commodity-focused mutual funds pool money from many investors to buy a diversified portfolio of commodity-related assets.

Advantages:

- Indirect Exposure: Commodity stocks and mutual funds offer exposure to commodity markets without the complexity of futures trading.

- Potential for Dividends: Some commodity stocks pay dividends, providing income in addition to capital appreciation.

Risks:

- Company-Specific Risks: Unlike direct commodity investments, stocks are subject to risks related to the specific companies, such as management decisions, operational issues, and competition.

- Market Risk: Commodity stocks can be affected by broader stock market movements, which may not always correlate with commodity prices.

Conclusion

Commodities trading offers investors a unique opportunity to invest in the physical goods that power the global economy. Whether you're interested in precious metals like gold, energy resources like oil, or agricultural products like wheat and coffee, commodities provide a way to diversify your portfolio and hedge against inflation. By understanding the basics of commodities trading, the different types of commodities available, and the various ways to invest—from futures contracts to ETFs—you can navigate the commodities markets with greater confidence and potentially profit from the dynamic forces that drive global supply and demand.

As with any investment, it’s important to thoroughly research and consider the risks involved before diving into commodities trading. With the right knowledge and strategy, commodities can be a valuable addition to your investment portfolio.

[reedcagle0]

Analyzing the Complexities of Crude Oil Pricing: An In-Depth Exploration

Crude oil is a cornerstone of the global economy, serving as a primary energy source and a vital raw material in numerous industries. The pricing of crude oil is a complex and multifaceted process influenced by a wide range of factors. This article provides a comprehensive examination of the key determinants of crude oil prices, encompassing supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical influences, market speculation, technological developments, and environmental considerations.

The Fundamentals of Crude Oil Pricing

The price of crude oil is determined by the interplay of various forces, primarily supply and demand. However, this fundamental economic principle is subject to modification by numerous external factors. The most commonly referenced benchmarks for crude oil pricing are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude. These benchmarks are utilized globally to standardize pricing and facilitate transactions in the oil market.

Determinants of Crude Oil Prices

Supply and Demand Dynamics The balance between supply and demand is the principal determinant of crude oil prices. An oversupply typically results in lower prices, while undersupply leads to higher prices. Supply factors include production rates from major oil-producing countries, technological innovations in extraction techniques, and disruptions caused by natural disasters or political instability. Demand is influenced by global economic growth, industrial output, and seasonal factors, such as increased heating oil consumption during winter.

Geopolitical Influences Geopolitical events play a crucial role in shaping crude oil prices. Political instability, conflicts, and sanctions in key oil-producing regions can cause significant disruptions to supply chains, resulting in price volatility. For instance, tensions in the Middle East, a region rich in oil reserves, often lead to concerns about supply reliability. Sanctions imposed on oil-exporting countries can restrict their ability to participate in the global market, thereby impacting supply and prices.

OPEC and Non-OPEC Production Decisions The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, have a significant influence on global oil supply. These entities coordinate production levels among member countries to stabilize the market and control price levels. Production cuts or increases decided by OPEC+ can substantially impact global supply and, consequently, prices. Additionally, non-OPEC producers, such as the United States and Russia, contribute to the overall supply landscape, further influencing pricing.

Market Speculation and Financial Markets Financial markets are critical in the determination of crude oil prices. Traders and investors engage in speculation based on anticipated future events, economic indicators, and market trends. Futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell oil at a future date, are particularly influential. The trading activities in futures markets can lead to significant price movements, as market participants react to news and forecasts. Speculation can amplify price volatility, especially during periods of uncertainty.

Currency Exchange Rates Since crude oil is traded internationally in U.S. dollars, fluctuations in the value of the dollar relative to other currencies can affect oil prices. A strong U.S. dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially reducing demand and leading to lower prices. Conversely, a weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which can increase demand and push prices higher.

Historical Context and Price Fluctuations

The history of crude oil prices is characterized by periods of significant volatility, often driven by geopolitical events and economic crises. Notable historical events include the oil embargo of 1973, the Iranian Revolution in 1979, and the Gulf War in 1990, all of which led to substantial price increases. In recent years, the shale oil boom in the United States has significantly altered the supply landscape, contributing to a steep decline in prices in 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further exacerbated market volatility, with demand plummeting and prices briefly turning negative due to an unprecedented supply glut.

Technological Innovations and Their Impact

Technological advancements have dramatically transformed the oil industry, particularly in extraction methods. The development of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling has enabled the exploitation of shale oil reserves, particularly in North America. These technologies have significantly increased global oil supply, altering market dynamics and exerting downward pressure on prices.

In addition to extraction technologies, advancements in renewable energy and energy efficiency are reshaping the global energy landscape. As nations and corporations strive to reduce their carbon footprints, the transition towards cleaner energy sources is accelerating. This shift has long-term implications for oil demand, potentially leading to a gradual decline in the reliance on fossil fuels and a corresponding decrease in crude oil prices.

Economic and Environmental Considerations

The economic implications of crude oil prices are far-reaching. High oil prices can lead to increased costs for transportation and production, contributing to inflationary pressures. For oil-exporting countries, elevated prices can result in higher revenues and economic growth, while for oil-importing nations, they can lead to trade imbalances and economic strain.

Environmental concerns are increasingly influencing the discourse around crude oil. The extraction, refining, and consumption of oil are major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to global climate change. As a result, there is growing pressure on the oil industry to adopt more sustainable practices. Governments and regulatory bodies are implementing policies to reduce emissions, such as carbon pricing and stricter environmental regulations, which may impact the profitability and future viability of the oil sector.

Future Outlook for Crude Oil Prices

The future of crude oil prices is subject to a myriad of uncertainties. The global push towards renewable energy and the adoption of more sustainable energy practices are likely to reduce the long-term demand for oil. This transition, coupled with ongoing technological advancements, suggests a potential stabilization or decline in oil prices over the long term. However, short-term fluctuations will likely persist, driven by geopolitical events, market speculation, and economic conditions.

The oil industry faces the challenge of adapting to these evolving market conditions. Companies may need to diversify their portfolios, invest in alternative energy sources, and enhance their environmental sustainability practices to remain competitive. The ongoing evolution of the energy sector presents both challenges and opportunities for the industry, as it navigates the transition towards a more sustainable future.

Crude oil pricing is influenced by a complex array of factors, including supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, market speculation, technological innovations, and environmental considerations. Understanding these elements is crucial for stakeholders across various sectors, as oil prices have a profound impact on the global economy. As the world moves towards a more sustainable energy future, the oil industry must adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory landscapes. The future trajectory of crude oil prices will depend on the interplay of these factors, as well as the industry's ability to innovate and embrace new energy paradigms.

[luminarytimesmedia]

Oil Prices Climb Amid Speculation of US Interest Rate Cuts

Oil prices saw an uptick in Asia on Monday as investors speculated that the US Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates as early as September. By 0651 GMT, Brent crude futures had risen by 32 cents, or 0.39%, reaching $82.95 per barrel. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures experienced a 34-cent increase, or 0.42%, climbing to $80.47 per barrel.

ANZ Research suggested that recent economic indicators, such as inflation and labour market data, pointed towards disinflation and labour market rebalancing, which could pave the way for the Fed to initiate an interest rate reduction cycle in September. The next Federal Reserve policy review is scheduled for July 30-31, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, but further evidence supporting a potential cut in September will be closely monitored by investors.

Read More:(https://luminarytimes.com/oil-prices-climb-amid-speculation-of-us-interest-rate-cuts/)

[trader-sg112]

Oil Prices Inch Up Despite Mixed Signals

Oil prices edged slightly higher on Friday. Contracts for Brent crude oil expiring in August climbed 0.4%, reaching $86.73 per barrel. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, a key benchmark for North American oil, rose 0.4% to $82.09 per barrel.

This modest increase comes amidst conflicting forces in the oil market. While concerns about potential supply disruptions from the Middle East and ongoing geopolitical tensions provided some upward pressure, a strong U.S. dollar acted as a counterweight. A stronger dollar can make oil, priced in dollars, less attractive to buyers using other currencies.

The focus for investors has now shifted to upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence future decisions by the Federal Reserve on interest rates. Higher interest rates can strengthen the dollar and potentially dampen demand for oil.

[currentmediasstuff]

Crude Oil Prices Set for Weekly Gain Amid Signs of Higher Demand from US and China

Crude oil prices are on track for a weekly gain, buoyed by encouraging data from both the United States and China, the world’s top consumers of crude oil. This uptick comes amidst ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Gaza conflict.

The increase in oil prices is largely attributed to a concurrent decline in US crude inventories, driven by heightened refinery activity. This trend aligns with recent data indicating that China’s oil imports in April surpassed last year’s figures, signaling an uptick in trade activity.

Despite efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the conflict persists, fueling concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East.

As of 0635 GMT, Brent futures have risen by 0.7 percent to $84.47 per barrel, marking a weekly gain of 1.8 percent. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude has climbed by 0.8 percent to $79.91 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.3 percent.

The positive momentum in oil prices is further supported by China’s rebounding exports and imports in April, indicating strengthening demand in the region.

Commenting on the market dynamics, ANZ Research noted, “Ongoing signs of strength in demand in China should see the commodity market remain well supported.”

However, geopolitical tensions persist, with Israeli forces continuing to engage in conflict with Hamas. This raises concerns about potential escalation and involvement of other Middle Eastern countries, particularly Iran, a key oil producer and supporter of Hamas.

Citi analysts highlighted, “Israel’s actions in Rafah and escalating tensions on its Northern border serve as a reminder that geopolitical risks could persist throughout Q2 2024.”

Despite these uncertainties, analysts anticipate a gradual easing of oil prices throughout 2024. Brent is projected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter, reflecting looser supply and demand fundamentals amidst indications of moderating global oil demand growth.

[lszdlp]

other

[European Stocks] Most major European stock indexes rose. Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.11%, France's CAC40 index fell slightly, Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.2%, and Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.33%.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Market] The Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.48%, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.48%, and Vietnam's VN30 Index fell 0.24%.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose by more than 1% to US$69,845.7 per coin; Ethereum rose by 0.28% to US$3,514.57 per coin.

[Gold] Gold once fell by more than 1% during the session, falling to a record high. It fell back after hitting a record intraday high for eight consecutive days.

[Crude oil] The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $98, or about 1.15%, to close at $86.21 per barrel; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rose by $1.06, or 1.2 %, to US$90.48 per barrel.

[Metals] Most London metals closed higher, with Lun Nickel rising by nearly 1.5%, Lun Zinc rising by more than 1.5%, Lun Aluminum rising by 0.49%, and Lun Copper falling by 0.11%.

https://chat.whatsapp.com/IGgMNx1mMfXDJNepmgMmep

[strategic-passive-investments]

Oil's Roller Coaster: Navigating Supply Surges and CEO Insights in a Volatile Market

Oil prices experienced a significant drop, hitting their lowest point in five months, as indicators of abundant supplies continued to mount. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) saw a decline of up to 4.3%, falling below $69 per barrel, a level not seen since late June. Despite efforts by OPEC and its allies to implement new output cuts, crude oil has witnessed a continuous seven-week slide.

The ongoing pressure on prices is fueled by fresh signals that global supplies remain plentiful. Russia's seaborne crude exports reached their highest weekly average since early July, and a US government agency revised its estimate for the country's oil production this year, increasing it by 30,000 barrels per day compared to last month's projection.

Concerns about oversupply persist, evident in the spreads between monthly contracts. The front end of the Brent futures curve closed at its lowest level since June this week, reinforcing the perception of ample supplies in the market. Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President for Trading at BOK Financial Securities, remarked, "Futures are trying to solidify a bottom from last week's selloff. The contango structure of back-month futures gaining on the front month is setting the tone that current supplies seem ample."

The oil market is currently enduring its longest weekly losing streak since 2018, with prices down by more than a quarter from the peak observed in late September. The outlook for demand in the first quarter appears gloomy due to forecasts of slowing Chinese consumption growth and lingering recession risks in the US.

As the market navigates these challenges, Charlie Sells, CEO of Strategic Passive Investments,

expressed his opinion on the situation. He emphasized the need for a strategic and adaptive approach in the face of evolving market dynamics. Sells suggested that investors should carefully assess the changing landscape and consider long-term strategies that account for the current oversupply conditions.

In the coming week, key industry players such as the International Energy Agency, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and the US Energy Department are set to publish their latest monthly assessments of market fundamentals. Additionally, investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's final rate decision of the year, which could have implications for the broader economic landscape and, consequently, oil prices. 

[head-post]

Oil prices freeze in expectation of Middle East conflict escalation

Oil prices were flat on Thursday after two sessions of gains. Rising supply risks in the Middle East offset demand concerns that earlier in the week drove prices to their lowest levels since early 2024, Reuters reports.

Brent crude prices rose on Wednesday, recovering from a sharp drop on Monday as Brent crude hit its lowest since early January and WTI crude hit its lowest since early February.

Prices were supported on Wednesday by a 3.7 million barrel drop in US crude inventories, which beat analysts’ expectations of a 700,000 barrel decline and marked the sixth consecutive weekly decline to six-month lows.

Brent crude futures fell 4 cents to $78.29 a barrel by 1309 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 10 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $75.33. Mazen Salhab, market strategist for BDSwiss, said:

Crude oil futures experienced volatility in reaction to a mix of economic concerns and rising geopolitical tensions. Weak US economic data, including poor job growth, have raised concerns about a possible recession in the US. Despite these economic fears, oil prices might find support on the back of tensions in the Middle East.

The killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah last week raised the likelihood of retaliatory Iranian strikes on Israel, adding to concerns about oil supplies from the world’s largest producing region.

Also providing some support was Libya’s National Oil Corporation, which declared force majeure on its Sharara oilfield from Tuesday, it said in a statement, adding that the company had been gradually reducing production at the field due to the protests.

Citi analysts forecast that there is a possibility of a rebound in Brent crude oil prices to below $80. Citi said:

Upside risks in the market remain, from still-tight balances through August, heightened geopolitical risks across North Africa and the Middle East, the possibility of weather-related disruptions through hurricane season and light managed money positioning.

Read more HERE

[palmoilnews]

Oil prices rise on US crude draw, rate cut hopes NEW YORK: Oil futures climbed on Thursday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a draw on crude oil and data showing a cooling jobs market that stoked hopes the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates soon. Brent crude futures settled at US$85.71 a barrel, up 64 cents or 0.75%. The session high of US$85.89 was the highest since May 1. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for July, which expire on Thursday, finished at US$82.17 a barrel, up 60 cents, or 0.74%. "The market is definitely getting a bounce," said Phil Flynn, analyst with Price Futures Group. Crude inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending June 14 to 457.1 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.2 million-barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for US crude futures rose by 307,000 barrels, the EIA said........