#US 10-year Treasury notes

[morninkim]

[ wip, workin on colors ehehe ]

timeskip zero gang!!

(check my "sv timeskip" tag for more info on them :3)

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Nick Visser at HuffPost:

A top adviser to President-elect Donald Trump allegedly tried to profit from his relationship with the new administration, asking potential appointees for large retainer fees in exchange for promoting them to get plum jobs, according to multiple reports on Monday. An internal investigation by Trump’s own attorneys concluded Boris Epshteyn — a longtime aide who coordinated Trump’s criminal defenses in recent years — had asked at least two people for the monthly payments. One of those people was Scott Bessent, a billionaire hedge fund manager who was recently tapped to be the next treasury secretary.

The Washington Post notes Epshteyn invited Bessent to lunch at a Palm Beach hotel in February, where he asked him to pay a monthly stipend of at least $30,000 to promote his reputation around Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in Florida. Bessent, who was gunning for the Treasury Department job, declined, but Epshteyn later asked him to invest $10 million in a basketball league. Bessent also declined that overture.

Later, Bessent told Trump’s attorneys he believed he was being criticized to those in the president-elect’s orbit after the November election. Epshteyn, The New York Times reports, told the billionaire it was “too late” for him to be hired for a cabinet position while allegedly calling himself “Boris Fucking Epshteyn.” The pair also had a heated confrontation in the lobby at Mar-a-Lago last week, CNN added.

Epshteyn has denied the allegations. “I am honored to work for President Trump and with his team,” he said in a statement to media outlets. “These fake claims are false and defamatory and will not distract us from Making America Great Again.”

Corrupt sleaze Boris Epshteyn asked for payments from at least two people for large retainer fees in exchange for promoting them to get plum jobs, one of which is potential treasury secretary Scott Bessent.

[phoenixyfriend]

Ko-Fi prompt from Isabelo:

Hi! I'm new to the workforce and now that I have some money I'm worried it's losing its value to inflation just sitting in my bank. I wanted to ask if you have ideas on how to counteract inflation, maybe through investing?

I've been putting this off for a long time because...

I am not a finance person. I am not an investments person. I actually kinda turned and ran from that whole sector of the business world, at first because I didn't understand it, and then once I did understand it, because I disagreed with much of it on a fundamental level.

But... I can describe some factors and options, and hope to get you started.

I AM NOT LEGALLY QUALIFIED TO GIVE FINANCIAL ADVICE. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

What is inflation, and what impacts it?

Inflation is the rate at which money loses value over time. It's the reason something that cost 50 cents in the 1840s costs $50 now.

A lot of things do impact inflation, like housing costs and wage increases and supply chains, but the big one that is relevant here is federal interest rates. The short version: if you borrow money from the government, you have to pay it back. The higher the interest rates on those loans, the lower inflation is. This is for... a lot of reasons that are complicated. The reason I bring it up is less so:

The government offers investments:

So yeah, the feds can impact inflation, but they also offer investment opportunities. There are three common types available to the average person: Bonds, Bills, and Notes. I'll link to an article on Investopedia again, but the summary is as follows: You buy a bill, bond, or note from the government. You have loaned them money, as if you are the bank. Then, they give it back, with interest.

Treasury Bills: shortest timeframe (four weeks to a year), and lowest return on investment. You buy it at a discount (let's say $475), and then the government returns the "full value" that the bond is, nominally (let's say $500). You don't earn twice-yearly interest, but you did earn $25 on the basis of Loaning The Government Some Cash.

Treasury Notes: 2-10 year timeframe. Very popular, very stable. Banks watch it to see how they should plan the interest rates for mortgages and other large loans. Also pretty high liquidity, which means you can sell it to someone else if you suddenly need the cash before your ten-year waiting period is up. You get interest payments twice a year.

Treasury Bonds: 20-30 years. This is like... the inverse of a house mortgage. It takes forever, but it does have the highest yield. You get interest payments twice a year.

Why invest money into the US Treasury department, whether through the above or a different government paper? (Savings bonds aren't on sold the set schedule that treasury bonds are, but they only come in 30-year terms.)

It is very, very low risk. It is pretty much the lowest risk investment a person can make, at least in the US. (I'm afraid I don't know if you're American, but if you're not, your country probably has something similar.)

Interest rates do change, often in reaction or in relation to inflation. If your primary concern is inflation, not getting a high return on investment, I would look into government papers as a way to ensure your money is not losing value on you.

This is the website that tells you the government's own data for current yield and sales, etc. You can find a schedule for upcoming auctions, as well.

High-yield bank accounts:

Savings accounts can come with a pretty unremarkable but steady return on investment; you just need to make sure you find one that suits you. Some of the higher-yield accounts require a minimum balance or a yearly fee... but if you've got a good enough chunk of cash to start with, that might be worth it for you.

They are almost as reliable as government bonds, and are insured by the government up to $250,000. Right now, they come with a lower ROI than most bonds/bills/notes (federal interest rates are pretty high at the moment, to combat inflation). Unlike government papers, though, you can deposit and withdraw money from a savings account pretty much any time.

Certificates of Deposit:

Okay, imagine you are loaning money to your bank, with the fixed term of "I will get this money back with interest, but only in ten years when the contract is up" like the Treasury Notes.

That's what this is.

Also, Investopedia updates near-daily with the highest rates of the moment, which is pretty cool.

Property:

Honestly, if you're coming to me for advice, you almost definitely cannot afford to treat real estate as an investment thing. You would be going to an actual financial professional. As such... IDK, people definitely do it, and it's a standby for a reason, but it's not... you don't want to be a victim of the housing bubble, you know? And me giving advice would probably make you one. So. Talk to a professional if this is the route you want to take.

Retirement accounts:

Pension accounts are a kind of savings account. You've heard of a 401(k)? It's that. Basically, you put your money in a savings account with a company that specializes in pensions, and they invest it in a variety of different fields and markets (you can generally choose some of this) in order to ensure that the money grows enough that you can hopefully retire on it in fifty years. The ROI is usually higher than inflation.

These kinds of accounts have a higher potential for returns than bonds or treasury notes, buuuuut they're less reliable and more sensitive to market fluctuations.

However, your employer may pay into it, matching your contribution. If they agree to match up to 4%, and you pay 4% of your paycheck into an pension fund, then they will pay that same amount and you are functionally getting 8% of your paycheck put into retirement while only paying for half of it yourself.

Mutual Funds:

I've definitely linked this article before, but the short version is:

An investment company buys 100 shares of stock: 10 shares each in 10 different "general" companies. You, who cannot afford a share of each of these companies, buy 1 singular share of that investment company. That share is then treated as one-tenth of a share of each of those 10 "general" companies. You are one of 100 people who has each bought "one stock" that is actually one tenth of ten different stocks.

Most retirement funds are actually a form of mutual fund that includes employer contributions.

Pros: It's more stable than investing directly in the stock market, because you can diversify without having to pay the full price of a share in each company you invest in.

Cons: The investment company does get a cut, and they are... often not great influences on the economy at large. Mutual funds are technically supposed to be more regulated than hedge funds (which are, you know, often venture capital/private equity), but a lot of mutual funds like insurance companies and pension funds will invest a portion of their own money into hedge funds, which is... technically their job. But, you know, capitalism.

Directly investing in the stock market:

Follow people who actually know what they're doing and are not Evil Finance Bros who only care about the bottom line. I haven't watched more than a few videos yet, but The Financial Diet has had good energy on this topic from what I've seen so far, and I enjoy the very general trends I hear about on Morning Brew.

That said, we are not talking about speculative capital gains. We are talking about making sure inflation doesn't screw with you.

DIVIDENDS are profit that the company shares to investors every quarter. Did the company make $2 billion after paying its mortgages, employees, energy bill, etc? Great, that $2 billion will be shared out among the hundreds of thousands of stocks. You'll probably only get a few cents back per stock (e.g. Walmart has been trading at $50-$60 for the past six months, and their dividends have been 57 cents and then 20.75 cents), but it adds up... sort of. The Walmart example is listed as having dividends that are lower than inflation, so you're actually losing money. It's part of why people rely on capital gains so much, rather than dividends, when it comes to building wealth.

Blue Chip Stocks: These are old, stable companies that you can expect to return on your investment at a steady rate. You probably aren't going to see your share jump from $5 to $50 in a year, but you also probably won't see it do the reverse. You will most likely get reliable, if not amazing, dividends.

Preferred Stocks: These are stock shares that have more reliable dividends, but no voting rights. Since you are, presumably, not a billionaire that can theoretically gain a controlling share, I can't imagine the voting rights in a given company are all that important anyway.

Anyway, hope this much-delayed Intro To Investing was, if not worth the wait, at least, a bit longer than you expected.

Hey! You got interest on the word count! It's topical! Ish.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Mike Luckovich:: GOP strategy in its totality

* * * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

September 18, 2024

Heather Cox Richardson

Sep 19, 2024

Today, at a White House reception in celebration of Hispanic Heritage Month, President Joe Biden said: "We don't demonize immigrants. We don't single them out for attacks. We don't believe they're poisoning the blood of the country. We're a nation of immigrants, and that's why we're so damn strong."

Biden’s celebration of the country’s heritage might have doubled as a celebration of the success of his approach to piloting the economy out of the ravages of the pandemic. Today the Fed cut interest rates a half a point, a dramatic cut indicating that it considers inflation to be under control. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has maintained that it would be possible to slow inflation without causing a recession—a so-called soft landing—and she appears to have been vindicated.

Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said: “The labor market is in solid condition, and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. You can say that about the whole economy: The US economy is in good shape. It’s growing at a solid pace, inflation is coming down. The labor market is at a strong pace. We want to keep it there. That’s what we’re doing.”

Powell, whom Trump first appointed to his position, said, “We do our work to serve all Americans. We’re not serving any politician, any political figure, any cause, any issue, nothing. It’s just maximum employment and price stability on behalf of all Americans.”

Powell was anticipating accusations from Trump that his cutting of rates was an attempt to benefit Harris before the election. Indeed, Jeff Stein of the Washington Post reported that Trump advisor Steven Moore called the move “jaw-dropping. There's no reason they couldn't do 25 now and 25 right after the election. Why not wait till then?” Moore added, "I'm not saying [the] reduction isn't justified—it may well be and they have more data than I do. But i just think, 'why now?’” Alabama senator Tommy Tuberville called the cut “shamelessly political.” 

The New Yorker’s Philip Gourevitch noted that “Trump has been begging officials worldwide not to do the right thing for years to help rig the election for him—no deal in Gaza, no defense of Ukraine, no Kremlin hostages release, no border deal, no continuing resolution, no interest rate cuts etc—just sabotage & subterfuge.”

That impulse to focus on regaining power rather than serving the country was at least part of what was behind Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance’s lie about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. That story has gotten even darker as it turns out Vance and Trump received definitive assurances on September 9 that the rumor was false, but Trump ran with it in the presidential debate of September 10 anyway. Now, although it has been made very clear—including by Republican Ohio governor Mike DeWine—that the Haitian immigrants in Springfield are there legally, Vance told a reporter today that he personally considers the programs under which they came illegal, so he is still “going to call [a Haitian migrant] an illegal alien.”

The lies about those immigrants have so derailed the Springfield community with bomb threats and public safety concerns that when the Trump campaign suggested Trump was planning a visit there, the city’s Republican mayor, Rob Rue, backed by DeWine, threw cold water on the idea. “It would be an extreme strain on our resources. So it’d be fine with me if they decided not to make that visit,” Rue said. Nonetheless, tonight, Trump told a crowd in Long Island, New York, that he will go to Springfield within the next two weeks. 

The false allegation against Haitian immigrants has sparked outrage, but it has accomplished one thing for the campaign, anyway: it has gotten Trump at least to speak about immigration—which was the issue they planned to campaign on—rather than Hannibal Lecter, electric boats, and sharks, although he continues to insist that “everyone is agreeing that I won the Debate with Kamala.” Trump, Vance, and Republican lawmakers are now talking more about policies.

In the presidential debate of September 10, Trump admitted that after nine years of promising he would release a new and better healthcare plan than the Affordable Care Act in just a few weeks, all he really had were “concepts of a plan.” Vance has begun to explain to audiences that he intends to separate people into different insurance pools according to their health conditions and risk levels. That business model meant that insurers could refuse to insure people with pre-existing conditions, and overturning it was a key driver of the ACA.

Senate and House Republicans told Peter Sullivan of Axios that if they regain control of the government, they will work to get rid of the provision in the Inflation Reduction Act that permits the government to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies over drug prices. Negotiations on the first ten drugs, completed in August, will lower the cost of those drugs enough to save taxpayers $6 billion a year, while those enrolled in Medicare will save $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket expenses. 

Yesterday Trump promised New Yorkers that he would restore the state and local tax deduction (SALT) that he himself capped at $10,000 in his 2017 tax cuts. In part, the cap was designed to punish Democratic states that had high taxes and higher government services, but now he wants to appeal to voters in those same states. On CNBC, host Joe Kernan pointed out that this would blow up the deficit, but House speaker Mike Johnson said that the party would nonetheless consider such a measure because it would continue to stand behind less regulation and lower taxes.

In a conversation with Arkansas governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, his former press secretary, Trump delivered another stream of consciousness commentary in which he appeared to suggest that he would lower food prices by cutting imports. Economics professor Justin Wolfers noted: “I'm exhausted even saying it, but blocking supply won't reduce prices, and it's not even close.” Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark added, “Tell me more about why you have to vote for Trump because of his ‘policies.’”

Trump has said he supports in vitro fertilization, or IVF, as have a number of Republican lawmakers, but today, 44 Republican senators once again blocked the Senate from passing a measure protecting it. The procedure is in danger from state laws establishing “fetal personhood,” which give a fertilized egg all the rights of a human being as established by the Fourteenth Amendment. That concept is in the 2024 Republican Party platform.

Trump has also demanded that Republicans in Congress shut down the government unless a continuing resolution to fund the government contains the so-called SAVE Act requiring people to show proof of citizenship when registering to vote. Speaker Johnson continues to suggest that undocumented immigrants vote in elections, but it is illegal for even documented noncitizens to do so, and Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the nonprofit American Immigration Council notes that even the right-wing Heritage Foundation has found only 12 cases of such illegal voting in the past 40 years.

Johnson brought the continuing resolution bill with the SAVE Act up for a vote today. It failed by a vote of 202 to 220. If the House and then the Senate don’t pass a funding bill, the government will shut down on October 1.

Republican endorsements of the Harris-Walz ticket continue to pile up. On Monday, six-term representative Bob Inglis (R-SC) told the Charleston City Paper that “Donald Trump is a clear and present danger to the republic” and said he would vote for Harris. “If Donald Trump loses, that would be a good thing for the Republican Party,” Inglis said. “Because then we could have a Republican rethink and get a correction.” 

George W. Bush’s attorney general Alberto Gonzales, conservative columnist George Will, more than 230 former officials for presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, and 17 former staff members for Ronald Reagan have all recently added their names to the list of those supporting Harris. Today more than 100 Republican former members of Congress and national security officials who served in Republican administrations endorsed Harris, saying they “firmly oppose the election of Donald Trump.” They cited his chaotic governance, his praising of enemies and undermining allies, his politicizing the military and disparaging veterans, his susceptibility to manipulation by Russian president Vladimir Putin, and his attempt to overthrow democracy. They praised Harris for her consistent championing of “the rule of law, democracy, and our constitutional principles.” 

Yesterday, singer-songwriters Billie Eilish, who has 119 million followers on Instagram, and Finneas, who has 4.2 million, asked people to register and to vote for Harris and Walz. “Vote like your life depends on it,” Eilish said, “because it does.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[dwellordream]

“Southern women zealously supported the southern cause of independence. A Georgia woman wrote her local newspaper, ‘I feel a new life within me, and my ambition aims at nothing higher than to become an ingenious, economical, industrious housekeeper, and an independent Southern woman.’ Throughout the South, women urged their menfolk to enlist in the Confederate military. A Selma, Alabama, woman even broke off her engagement when her fiance failed to enlist. She sent him a skirt and pantaloons with a note attached: ‘Wear these or volunteer.’

Up North, women also showed passionate support--for the Union. Shortly after the war began, Louisa May Alcott, who later wrote the novel Little Women, confided in her diary, ‘I long to be a man; but as I can’t fight, I will content myself with working for those who can.’ Harriet Beecher Stowe called the Union effort a ‘cause to die for,’ and a woman in New York declared, ‘It seems as if we never were alive till now; never had a country till now.’ As their husbands and sons drilled and marched and prepared for battle in opposing armies, women of the North and South swung into action.

…Women also took over the work of men who had gone off to fight. Across the North and South, women took charge of family farms and plantations as their men battled in Antietam or Chancellorsville or Gettysburg--or lay languishing in makeshift army hospitals or military prisons. Some women despaired at the enormous responsibilities of planting, plowing, and running a farm, but other women met the challenge head on--and discovered new strengths and abilities in the process. Sarah Morgan of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, marveled at how much she accomplished in one day--’empty a dirty hearth, dust, move heavy weights, make myself generally useful and dirty, and all this thanks to the Yankees.’

Throughout the North, scores of women worked in government offices for the first time to replace male clerks who had enlisted in the Union army. They worked as clerks and copyists, copying speeches and documents for government records. They also became postal employees and worked in the Treasury Department cutting apart long sheets of paper money and counting currency. Salaries ranged from $500 to $900 a year by 1865. Although this was more than what most female employees made at the time, women still earned half of what men earned for the same work.

…As the Union armies advanced deeper into the South, capturing Confederate territory and liberating slaves in the process, hundreds of black and white women, mostly in their 20s, followed closely behind to teach the former slaves, many of whom were illiterate. Women risked danger and hardship--and sometimes their families’ disapproval--to venture South. They went under the auspices of American Missionary Society, the Pennsylvania Freedmen’s Relief Association, and other agencies that recruited teachers and paid their monthly wages of $10 to $12.

Teachers admired their students’ eagerness to learn. ‘It is a great happiness to teach them,’ Charlotte Forten, a black woman who taught in the Sea Islands off of South Carolina, wrote a friend in November 1862. ‘I wish some of those persons at the North who say the race is hopelessly and naturally inferior, could see the readiness with which these children, so long oppressed and deprived of every privilege, learn and understand.’ Adult ex-slaves, too, were willing students. Of one of her grown-up students, Forten remarked, ‘I never saw anyone so determined to learn.’

…About 400 women disguised themselves as Union or Confederate soldiers and fought in the war. With the proper attire, some could easily pass for being a man. Women enlisted for a variety of reasons--some believed in the cause so deeply that they would not let being a woman stop them from fighting as soldiers. Others craved adventure or could not bear to be apart from husbands or other loved ones who had joined the army. No doubt some women were killed in battle and went to their graves with their true identities concealed.

Other women soldiers were forced to reveal their secret when they were wounded. A female Union soldier, wounded in the battle of Chickamauga in Tennessee, was captured by Confederate troops and returned to the Union side with a note: ‘As the Confederates do not use women in the war, this woman, wounded in battle, is returned to you.’ When a Union nurse asked her why she had joined the army, she replied, ‘I thought I’d like camp life, and I did.’

…In 1863, women in New York City went on a rampage. In the South, women had rioted for food; in New York, they joined men, mostly Irish, who were protesting against a federal provision that allowed draftees to hire substitutes. The protest quickly erupted into a riot against the city’s blacks. The protestors, who feared competition from black workers, resented being drafted to fight a war for the slave’s freedom. Even more so, they resented upper-class Yankee Protestants who could afford to pay substitutes $300 to fight in their places.

Over four days, rioters looted stores and beat innocent blacks. Angry mobs lynched about six blacks, destroyed the dwellings where blacks lived, and burned down the Colored Orphan Asylum. They also set fire to several businesses that employed blacks and destroyed the homes of prominent Republicans and abolitionists. Women took part in the plunder, venting their rage at a government and a war that sacrificed their men and impoverished their lives.”

- Harriet Sigerman, “‘I Am Needed Here’: Women at War.” in An Unfinished Battle: American Women, 1848-1865

[blueiscoool]

700+ Civil War-Era Gold Coins Found Buried in Kentucky

A man unearthed a huge hoard of Civil War-era gold and silver coins on his Kentucky farm.

A Kentucky man got the surprise of his life while digging in his field earlier this year: a cache of over 700 coins from the American Civil War era.

The "Great Kentucky Hoard" includes hundreds of U.S. gold pieces dating to between 1840 and 1863, in addition to a handful of silver coins. In a short video, the man who discovered the hoard — whose identity and specific location have not been revealed to the public — says, "This is the most insane thing ever: Those are all $1 gold coins, $20 gold coins, $10 gold coins," as he aims his camera at the artifacts tumbling out of the dirt.

According to the Numismatic Guaranty Co. (NGC), which certified the coins' authenticity, and GovMint, where the coins were sold, 95% of the hoard is composed of gold dollars, along with 20 $10 Liberty coins and eight $20 Liberty coins. The rarest is the 1863-P $20 1-ounce gold Liberty coin. Just one of these coins can go for six figures at auction, and the Great Kentucky Hoard boasts 18 of them. NGC's website notes that the $20 Liberty coin, which circulated from 1850 to 1907, was minted by the Treasury Department after gold was discovered in California. The $20 Liberty coins in the hoard are even rarer because they do not include "In God We Trust," which was added in 1866 after the end of the Civil War.

Potentially more important, though, is what the hoard can tell us about America's history during an extremely tumultuous period.

Ryan McNutt, a conflict archaeologist at Georgia Southern University who has heard about but not seen the hoard, said in an email that "given the time period and the location in Kentucky, which was neutral at the time, it is entirely possible this was buried in advance of Confederate John Hunt Morgan's June to July 1863 raid."

Many wealthy Kentuckians are rumored to have buried huge sums of money to prevent it from being stolen by the Confederacy. James Langstaff left a letter saying he had buried $20,000 in coins on his property in Paducah, William Pettit buried $80,000 worth of gold coins near Lexington, and Confederate soldiers quarantined for measles reportedly stole payroll and hid it in a cave in Cumberland Gap. None of these caches has ever been recovered.

Considering the hoard coins are federal currency, McNutt said, it may be the result of a Kentuckian's dealings with the federal government — "dealings that it would be wise to conceal from a Confederate raiding party." Many Americans affected by the Civil War "became experienced with hiding goods and valuables," he said.

Most concentrations of historical artifacts found on private land end up going to market or being collected without archaeological consultation, according to McNutt. "As a conflict archaeologist, I find this loss of information particularly frustrating," he said. Hoards have an incredible amount of information about the person who collected the objects, offering archaeologists insight into a brief window in time.

Historical finds like these on private land in the U.S. do not need to be reported to an archaeologist. But McNutt, who has developed close relationships with landowners, believes that education and outreach are key to learning more about these rare coin caches.

"It is entirely up to the landowner," McNutt said, but not engaging with an archaeologist means "it's a snapshot of the past, lost forever."

By Kristina Killgrove.

[head-post]

US election: Trump claims victory

Republican Donald Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential contest after Fox News Channel reported that he defeated Democrat Kamala Harris, which would complete his stunning political comeback four years after leaving the White House.

Trump said on Wednesday before a roaring crowd of supporters at the Palm Beach County Convention Centre:

America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.

According to Edison Research, other news outlets have yet to call the results of the race in Trump’s favour, but he appears to be on the verge of victory, having captured the states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia and holding a lead in the other four.

Trump gave a victory speech in Florida, thanking all those who voted for him. His wife Melania and son Barron were by his side at the time. He said:

Thank you Americans for your votes! Let’s make America great again! My result is a political victory that the history of the United States has never known before.

Harris did not address her supporters, who gathered at her alma mater, Howard University. Her campaign co-chairman Cedric Richmond briefly addressed the crowd after midnight, saying Harris would speak publicly Wednesday. He said:

We still have votes to count.

Harris needs more than 270 electoral votes to win the election. The former US president has crossed that threshold with 277 already. Now the counting of votes continues, but the necessary threshold for victory Trump has already overcome.

Trump showed strength in wide swathes of the country, improving his 2020 performance everywhere from rural areas to urban centres.

Republicans won a majority in the US Senate after picking up seats from Democrats in West Virginia and Ohio. In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, neither side had an advantage.

On Election Day, Trump’s chances of regaining the White House were 50/50, a surprising turnaround from January 6, 2021, when many pundits declared his political career over. On that day, a mob of his supporters stormed Congress in a furious attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Exit polls data

According to Edison exit polls, Trump gained more support among Hispanics, traditionally Democratic voters, and low-income households, who have felt the price hikes acutely since the last 2020 presidential election.

Trump received 45 percent of the Hispanic vote nationwide, behind Harris with 53 percent, but up 13 percentage points from 2020.

About 31 percent of voters cited the economy as their top issue, and they voted for Trump by a margin of 79 percent to 20 percent, according to exit polls. About 45 percent of voters nationwide said their family’s financial situation is worse today than it was four years ago, and they favoured Trump 80 percent to 17 percent.

On Tuesday, global investors were increasingly leaning towards Trump winning. US stock futures and the dollar rose, Treasury bond yields rose and bitcoin rose in price – all of which analysts and investors noted as trades favourable to a Trump victory.

By 12:30 p.m., officials had nearly finished counting ballots in more than 1,600 counties – about half the country – and Trump’s share was up about two percentage points from 2020, reflecting a broad, though not particularly deep, shift in Americans’ support for the president they ousted four years ago.

He improved in suburban counties, rural areas and even some big cities that have historically been bastions of Democratic support; in high- and low-income districts; in places where unemployment was relatively high and in places where it is now at record lows.

Harris was counting on a large margin among urban and suburban voters, but her support in those places is well behind President Joe Biden’s support in the 2020 election.

Trump’s campaign promises

The main point of Trump’s economic programme was to impose tariffs of 10-20% on all imported goods, and up to 60% if they are of Chinese origin. According to the new president, this step will contribute to the development of American industry and force manufacturers to move their factories to the US.

He also advocated lowering the tax rate for corporations that produce their goods in the US from 21% to 15%, abolishing taxes on tips and social security benefits, and doing away with double taxation for US citizens living abroad.

Trump intends to fight high housing prices. To this end, he proposes to expel immigrants who live in the country illegally.

In this election race, Trump also promised to end the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours in case of victory. However, the former president later decided that he would need more time to resolve the situation. He stated that he would resolve the issue before his inauguration, which will take place on January 20, 2025.

Read more HERE

[mariacallous]

In their first act of legislative business, the new House Republican majority voted to cut funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The vote was a symbolic effort to repeal the $80 billion increase in funding the revenue agency received last year as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Cutting IRS funding is a terrible idea. A well-funded IRS can distribute emergency aid quickly, serve taxpayers efficiently, and help ensure that millionaires have to follow the tax laws just like everyone else. It’s an essential investment in good government.

The IRS has been persistently underfunded for decades, but the years since 2010 have been particularly tough. Tax law expert Chye-Ching Huang notes that the enforcement budget of the IRS dropped by nearly a quarter in less than ten years. In 2017, the IRS employed less than 10,000 revenue agents—the last time that was true was 1953: the Brooklyn Dodgers were in the World Series, the median housing price was about $8,000, and the IRS was handling over 100 million fewer individual income tax returns a year. The IRS is also “overwhelmingly reliant” on antiquated technology, the U.S. Taxpayer Advocate notes, “systems that are at least 25 years old, use obsolete programming languages (e.g., COBOL), or lack vendor support, training, or resources to maintain.”

It is worth noting how much the IRS has managed to achieve despite its perpetually inadequate resources. When COVID struck, for example, only the IRS had the capacity to send millions of emergency checks to keep American households afloat. As my Tax Policy Center colleague Howard Gleckman has said, the IRS “did an extraordinary job in getting these checks out in very difficult circumstances.”

But the budgetary toll of persistent underfunding is unmistakable. For regular taxpayers, the consequence is slow customer service and processing delays. Some politicians have irresponsibly suggested that every new IRS employee will be a gun-toting enforcement agent. Actually, the IRS desperately needs employees to process refunds and answer tax filers’ phone calls. Out of the 282 million phone calls the IRS received in 2021, only 11% or 32 million were actually answered. Nearly half the new IRS money is going to taxpayer services and modernization, which will make the agency more responsive and efficient for taxpayers.

About $45 billion of the $80 billion in new funding is going to enforcement, and that is great news. For the wealthiest and most sophisticated tax filers, a cash-strapped IRS has meant a tax evasion free-for-all. Currently, the tax gap, which is the amount in taxes that are owed but not paid, comes to nearly $7 trillion over a decade. Three fifths of the tax gap is due to underreporting of income by the top 10% of taxpayers, and more than a quarter comes from the top 1%.

But the IRS has been left without the resources to hire and support the kind of tax experts who can catch wealthy tax cheats. The lack of staff was highlighted recently when it was revealed that the audit of former president Donald Trump was staffed by exactly one revenue agent. But Trump wasn’t the only one whose taxes were going without thorough examination. Audits of millionaires have dropped 61% in less than a decade. For those making more than $5 million, the audit rate has dropped 87%.

At the same time, responding to a push from Congress, the IRS has focused instead on a much cheaper form of audit, targeting recipients of the Earned Income Tax Credit—i.e. low-income, working families. As a result, the EITC recipients are audited at the same rate as the top 1% of earners. As law professor Dorothy Brown explains, the consequence of high levels of EITC audits is a serious racial disparity in tax policing.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has insisted that the new funding not be used to increase audit rates on those earning less than $400,000 a year. So, the new funding will help rebuild the capacity of the IRS to audit the wealthy, making the tax system far fairer. And, of course, closing the tax gap raises revenues—it’s a policy that more than pays for itself. The IRS investments are expected to raise $124 billion.

The Republican effort to repeal the IRS’s $80 billion funding increase will not move forward in the Democrat-controlled Senate. But the IRS might yet see its funding decline, if the House Republicans negotiate a cut in the budget fights later this year. If that happens, it is bad news for the millions of American households who pay their taxes honestly, and great news for the country’s richest tax evaders. Funding the IRS will shore up an essential government service, making tax filing easier and tax enforcement fairer.

[curiousmarketersclub]

The markets are betting on inflation not just being so 2024.

the US government’s monthly auction of 10-year notes on Tuesday...landed the highest yield for newly auctioned securities since 2007.

The overall yield on the US 10-Year Treasury Bond also touched its highest intraday point, 4.699%, since last spring. That’s thanks to an extended selloff emboldened by new economic data suggesting more interest rate cuts are less likely in the short term thanks to economic growth coupled with more stubborn inflation.

Yields on the 10-year note have been rising since December as markets have bet that President-elect Donald Trump’s economic plans, like tariffs, and all-around animal spirits could push up inflation and the deficit, further reducing the probability of rate cuts.

Sean Craig https://www.thedailyupside.com/finance/markets/yield-on-10-year-treasury-note-approaches-yearlong-high-as-new-data-suggests-resilient-inflation/

Wouldn’t be surprised by a purchasing bump in the near term to stock up before the expected tariff impact makes things more expensive.

[dangkimnganha1990]

April 23, 2012 - Dutch coalition teeters over cuts as EU pact struggles

https://www.dnb.nl/media/yyonohk0/working_paper_no-824.pdf

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/dutch-coalition-teeters-over-cuts-as-eu-pact-struggles-idUSBRE83M07I/

https://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/european-fears-grip-investors-worldwide-112042400055_1.html

 Jan 20 2013

Fears of a Europe-wide recession undermining political will to tackle the region's debt crisis gripped financial markets on Monday, sending shares and the single currency lower and driving demand for safe-haven assets. US stocks opened lower on Wall Street.

The economic outlook for Europe was hurt by poor flash Purchasing Manager's Indexes (PMIs) for April, which are a guide to future activity. The reports for the euro zone, Germany and France pointed to a much faster rate of economic contraction across the debt-laden region than had been expected. The gloomier view came as the Dutch government, a close ally to Germany in calling for tougher austerity measures to fight the crisis, resigned because of a crisis over budget cuts.

Investors were also absorbing the implications of the victory in the first round of France's presidential poll of the Socialist Francois Hollande, who has promised to renegotiate a European budget pact.

"It's beginning to look like the perfect storm," said Stewart Richardson, chief investment officer at RMG. "If there is a Dutch election coming up soon it just adds to the whole cocktail of worries for the market."

Voters in Greece also go to the polls on May 6, where the only two major parties that back the EU/IMF bailout plan are just ahead according to the latest polling.

The single currency dropped 0.35 per cent to $1.3150, down from a two-week high on Friday, and was expected to stay under pressure before key debt auctions due later this week by Italy and the Netherlands.

The French and Dutch developments overshadowed the weekend agreement by the world's major economies to provide an additional $430 billion in new crisis-fighting funds to protect the global economy from Europe's problems.

Europe's top shares were bearing the brunt of investors' fears after a lower start on data from China showing factory output in its economy was still contracting. The data also suggested the downtrend may be over.

The FTSE Eurofirst index of top European shares fell 1.9 per cent to 1026.27 points, having just posted its best week in a month. Banks , which are exposed to Europe's debt problems, were down 3 per cent, led by Amsterdam-listed ING Groep, which fell 7.5 per cent.

April's PMI for the euro zone's dominant service sector fell to 47.9 from 49.2 in March - a five-month low and below forecasts in a Reuters poll of more than 40 economists which projected a rise to 49.3.

But the impact of the data was increased by a separate PMI for Germany which showed Europe's largest economy had seen its export-oriented manufacturing sector shrink at the fastest pace in nearly three years in April.

"They're all telling us that the (euro zone) economy has lost a lot of momentum. It's not even true now to say this is a problem of the periphery, because the core economies would appear to be suffering too," said Peter Dixon, global equities economist at Commerzbank.

The news sent safe-haven German government bond yields to record lows of 1.584 per cent, while yields on the ultimate safety play, 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, fell 4 basis points to a seven-week low of 1.921 per cent.

Yields on most other peripheral euro zone debt worsened with Spain's 10-year bond yield jumping back above six per cent.

The cost of insuring Dutch debt against default jumped to its highest since January and the premium investors demand to hold the bonds, rather than equivalent German benchmarks, surged to the highest level in three years.

The mixed signals on China's likely demand for metals in the latest HSBC PMI was not enough to offset the worries over Europe in the commodities market, where three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.8 per cent $8,043.50 a tonne.

Gold prices eased towards $1,630 an ounce, extending the two per cent losses it has posted so far this month.

Gold watchers are expected to turn their attention shortly to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting from Tuesday, at which the potential for more monetary easing is set to be addressed.

[starseedfxofficial]

Bond Moves Traders Must Know: Fixed Income Insights The Quiet Storm: How Fixed Income Is Shaping Markets Right Now Have you ever felt like the market is playing chess while you’re still learning checkers? Fixed income markets are the silent masterminds behind much of what happens across asset classes, yet they rarely get the spotlight. Today, we’ll decode the latest moves in bonds and what they mean for traders. Ready to uncover hidden patterns and actionable insights? Let’s dive in. A Hefty Dose of Supply: USTs Under Pressure US Treasuries (USTs) are feeling the heat—again. Following last week’s data-driven dip, traders are bracing for a surge of supply. It’s like waiting for a flood while your bucket’s already full. Overnight action saw Japan’s JGBs set the tone as Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted at rate hikes—eventually. Translation: Rates could rise, but only when inflation plays nice. As it stands, USTs are hanging near their December lows at 108-12. Support levels are eyeing the 108-11+ mark, with 108-06+ looming like a test you didn’t study for. Bunds: Inflation’s Not-So-Little Secret Over in Europe, Bunds are following suit, shedding value as German state CPIs hint at a hotter-than-expected mainland figure. If inflation were a bonfire, these numbers are adding logs. The Bunds currently hover at 132.22, just shy of the November trough at 132.00. It’s a critical level traders should keep an eye on—because when Bunds move, the Eurozone listens. Gilts: The UK’s PMI Blues Across the channel, Gilts are taking a hit. Revised PMI numbers offered a slight reprieve, but not enough to reclaim the magic 92.00 level. A British Chambers of Commerce report added fuel to the fire, noting that over half of UK businesses plan to raise prices soon. Translation? Inflation isn’t leaving the party anytime soon, and neither is pressure on Chancellor Reeves. Saudi Arabia’s Big Move: The USD Benchmarks Saudi Arabia is stepping into the spotlight with USD benchmarks across 3-, 6-, and 10-year maturities. With initial pricing terms (IPTs) pegged at 120bps over UST for the 3-year and 140bps for the 10-year, this issuance could be a game-changer for regional liquidity and investor sentiment. The Bigger Picture: What Traders Should Watch The fixed income market is a web of interconnected threads. From USTs to Bunds, every move sends ripples across currencies, equities, and commodities. For traders, this isn’t just background noise—it’s the signal in the noise. Here’s how you can stay ahead: - Monitor Inflation Data: CPI numbers, like those from Germany, are pivotal. They’re the breadcrumbs leading you to central bank policy shifts. - Track Yield Curves: Flattening or steepening curves in USTs and Bunds can signal shifts in market sentiment. - Global Interconnections: Saudi Arabia’s debt issuance isn’t just a regional story. It reflects broader demand for USD liquidity. Why Fixed Income Matters (Even for Forex Traders) Forex isn’t isolated. Interest rate expectations, driven by fixed income markets, dictate currency flows. When Bund yields rise, the EUR/USD feels it. When USTs tank, the USD/JPY follows suit. Staying informed about bond market trends isn’t optional—it’s essential. Turning Insight into Action Fixed income markets might not have the same flash as equities or crypto, but their impact is undeniable. By understanding the nuances of USTs, Bunds, and Gilts, traders gain an edge—one that can turn the tide in their favor. So, the next time you’re planning your strategy, remember this: The bond market isn’t just the quiet kid in class—it’s the one running the show behind the scenes. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated   Read the full article

[morninkim]

SV Timeskip Zero Gang designs!!

feel free to shoot any questions my way if you're curious about them, but lil notes on post-timeskip stuff under the cut:

10 years after game events (Scarlet + HToAZ, specifically)

Arven's 27 and a part time chef at Treasury Eatery

Nemona's 26 and Top Champion (Rika takes over League Chairman duties)

Penny's starting a tech security company

Florian's an adventurer and amateur paleontologist

extra notes:

Arven and Nemona are engaged but still call each other my wife (Arven's been agender butch lesbianified) - they're also trying to figure out regulations to allow for safe use of Paradox Pokémon in league battles

Florian's been in an LDR with Kieran for a while now

Penny has an on/off deal with Carmine she doesn't really talk about much

10 years after it shut down thanks to the efforts of the Zero Gang and Koraidon, the time machine has mysteriously turned back on and is bringing more Paradox Pokémon to the present. However, these new Paradox Pokémon are robotic - not at all like the Ancient Pokémon Sada had studied - and seem to resemble several creatures described in issues of Occulture Magazine.

The team's gotta come back together and get help from some friends to figure out what's happened in Area Zero and who's behind it!

[coineagle]

MicroStrategy’s $10B Share Issue Geared for Bitcoin Purchases: How It Could Stimulate BTC Value

Key Points

MicroStrategy plans to increase its MSTR share count to 10 billion to boost its Bitcoin acquisition program.

The move could potentially push the price of Bitcoin higher, but may also dilute the current MSTR’s value.

MicroStrategy, known for its Bitcoin corporate treasury, aims to up its MSTR share count to 10 billion. This move is intended to speed up its Bitcoin acquisition program.

The firm has informed shareholders of a special meeting through a filing with the US regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The purpose of this meeting is to seek approval for the share increment.

Increasing Shares and Acquiring More Bitcoin

If the proposals receive approval, the class A common stock will be increased from 330 million to 10.3 billion shares. In the same vein, the preferred stock will be expanded from the current 5 million shares to 1 billion.

This would result in a total share count of over 11 billion. MicroStrategy believes this would aid in achieving its Bitcoin acquisition strategy known as the ’21/21 Plan.’

The ’21/21 Plan’ was first announced in October 2024. It aims to raise $42 billion in capital through equity issuance ($21B) and $21B debt instruments (convertible notes) over the next three years.

Joe Burnett, director of market research at Unchained, suggests that this move could push the price of Bitcoin higher. However, some have expressed concerns that this could dilute the current value of MSTR.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Holdings

Since the announcement of the ’21/21 Plan’, MicroStrategy has acquired 192,042 Bitcoins. This includes the most recent bid of 5,262 BTC announced on December 23rd. The firm now holds 444,262 BTC, worth nearly $42 billion at the current price.

Following MicroStrategy’s latest BTC bid, MSTR’s value increased by 11%. However, the stock’s price has fallen by nearly 40% amid a correction from $108K to a low of $92K. Despite this, MSTR has seen 263% gains on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, compared to Bitcoin’s 112%.

[mortgages-by-mixon-nmls-2450250]

How Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Affect Mortgage Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, plays a crucial role in shaping the economic environment of the United States, particularly through its monetary policy. One of the Fed's primary tools to influence the economy is adjusting the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it can have a significant impact on various aspects of the economy, including mortgage interest rates. While the relationship between the two is not always direct, understanding how rate cuts generally influence mortgage rates is important for homebuyers, homeowners looking to refinance, and real estate investors.

The Federal Reserve’s Rate Cuts and Their Immediate Impact

When the Fed cuts interest rates, it lowers the cost of borrowing money for banks and financial institutions. This is done to stimulate the economy by encouraging spending and investment. For example, when borrowing becomes cheaper, consumers are more likely to take out loans for homes, cars, and businesses. The ultimate goal is to lower the unemployment rate, boost spending, and foster overall economic growth.

However, the direct link between the Federal Reserve’s actions and mortgage rates is somewhat indirect. The federal funds rate primarily affects short-term borrowing rates, such as credit card interest rates and rates on short-term loans, rather than long-term fixed mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are typically more influenced by long-term bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury note, which reflects investor expectations about future economic conditions, inflation, and the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

The Role of Treasury Yields in Mortgage Rates

Mortgage interest rates are more closely tied to the bond market, specifically the yields on government bonds. While the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts directly influence short-term borrowing, they can indirectly influence long-term rates as well. When the Fed cuts rates, it can make bonds that offer higher returns than current rates more attractive to investors. This increase in demand for bonds typically leads to a drop in bond yields.

As bond yields decrease, mortgage lenders can offer lower interest rates on mortgages. This is because lenders often use the yield on Treasury bonds as a benchmark for setting their rates. So, when yields drop, lenders pass on the savings to consumers in the form of lower mortgage rates. The reverse is also true—when the Fed raises rates, Treasury yields often rise, which can cause mortgage rates to increase as well.

The Influence of Inflation Expectations

One of the primary reasons the Fed cuts interest rates is to combat economic slowdowns or recessions. By lowering borrowing costs, the Fed aims to stimulate spending and investment, which in turn boosts economic activity. However, investors and lenders are also concerned with inflation. If investors believe that rate cuts will lead to higher inflation down the road, they may demand higher returns on long-term investments to compensate for the potential loss in purchasing power. In this case, mortgage rates might not fall as much or could even rise despite Fed rate cuts, especially if inflation expectations increase.

Conversely, if the rate cuts are seen as a response to a slowdown in inflation or a stagnant economy, mortgage rates are more likely to decrease. This is because the expectation is that low rates will keep inflation under control while encouraging economic activity, leading to a favorable environment for lower borrowing costs in the housing market.

Refinancing and Homebuying Benefits

For consumers, the most obvious effect of a Fed rate cut is the potential for lower mortgage rates, which can benefit both homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance. Lower mortgage rates reduce monthly payments on new loans, making homeownership more affordable. For existing homeowners, refinancing can result in significant savings by locking in a lower interest rate, reducing the overall cost of a loan over time.

However, it is important to note that mortgage rates do not always follow the Fed's actions in perfect synchronicity. There may be other market forces at play that influence rates, including global economic conditions, investor sentiment, and domestic inflation trends. For instance, during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility, mortgage rates may remain higher even in the face of Fed rate cuts, as investors may seek safety in long-term bonds, driving up yields.

Conclusion

While the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts can influence mortgage rates, the relationship is complex and depends on various factors, including investor behavior and inflation expectations. Mortgage rates typically decline when the Fed lowers rates, but the full extent of the impact will depend on broader economic conditions. For homebuyers and homeowners, the key takeaway is that while Fed rate cuts often signal favorable conditions for securing lower mortgage rates, timing, market conditions, and individual financial circumstances should always be considered when making a decision.

[arfacapital]

Asia-Pacific markets In the Asia-Pacific region, markets displayed mixed performance but generally leaned towards positive territory. Chinese equities outperformed as the Politburo signaled a shift toward a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary stance for 2025, marking a significant policy adjustment after years of prudence. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index both gained, reflecting optimism over potential economic support measures. However, Australian equities lagged as the ASX 200 was weighed down by a disappointing performance in the technology sector, despite a dovish hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA maintained its cash rate at 4.35%, citing signs that inflationary pressures were easing. European markets European equity markets opened on a weaker note, maintaining a downbeat tone throughout the morning session. The declines were attributed to a combination of profit-taking after Monday's rally and negative cues from Wall Street, where major indices suffered losses overnight. The sentiment was further dampened by a lack of positive macroeconomic catalysts and cautious investor positioning ahead of upcoming US inflation data. Most European sectors traded in negative territory, reflecting a broad risk-off sentiment. Healthcare, autos, and travel & leisure sectors managed to post modest gains, supported by stock-specific resilience and lingering optimism from previous sessions. In contrast, basic resources and consumer products, which had been among the top performers on Monday, gave back significant gains as traders locked in profits. Technology and financials also faced notable pressure, aligning with the broader trend of declining risk appetite. US pre-market US equity futures were mixed, hovering around the unchanged mark in early European trade. The session lacked a clear directional bias, as investors weighed the implications of the prior day's losses against a relatively quiet macroeconomic backdrop. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite attempted to recover slightly, hinting at the potential for a steadier open on Wall Street later in the day. Fixed income markets In fixed-income markets, US Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising as traders positioned ahead of a key 3-year note auction later in the day and the US CPI release on Wednesday. German Bunds also saw choppy trade, with yields fluctuating near recent highs. UK Gilts traded slightly lower, with the 10-year yield climbing above 4.3%, driven by broader global yield trends rather than domestic factors. Commodities Commodity markets experienced a mixed session. Crude oil prices edged lower, with Brent crude trading within a tight range near $72 per barrel. Investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and lackluster demand signals, as Saudi Arabia cut January oil prices for Asia and Europe. Precious metals such as gold found some support, with spot gold briefly touching $2,673 per ounce before retreating slightly. Prices edged higher as geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes in Syria, supported safe-haven demand. The PBoC’s resumed gold purchases further underpinned sentiment. Base metals, including copper, gave up prior gains amid profit-taking and broader risk-off sentiment in global markets. Copper prices rose initially, buoyed by Chinese trade data, but later fell amid a stronger US dollar. Currencies The US dollar extended its strength, advancing against a basket of major currencies for the third consecutive session. The DXY index climbed firmly above the 106 level, supported by expectations that Wednesday’s US CPI report could bolster the Federal Reserve’s case for maintaining tighter monetary policy. The euro and the pound struggled to hold ground against the greenback, with EUR/USD dipping below 1.0532 and GBP/USD trading within a narrow range around 1.2740. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continued to weaken, with USD/JPY edging closer to the 152 mark amid speculation that the Bank of Japan may delay further policy tightening. Geopolitical developments Geopolitical developments added to the cautious tone in financial markets. Reports emerged that Israeli forces had advanced into southern Syria, heightening tensions in the region following the fall of the Assad regime. Meanwhile, the US reiterated its commitment to supporting stability in the Middle East while Israeli intelligence continued to monitor potential nuclear developments in Iran. These developments, combined with broader macroeconomic uncertainties, contributed to a sense of unease across global markets. Following the Assad regime's collapse, Israel launched over 100 airstrikes targeting Syrian military sites, including facilities linked to chemical weapons. These actions aim to block weapon transfers to terrorist groups. Maryland data engineer Luigi Mangione was arrested for the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, sparking public debate due to his manifesto criticizing the health insurance industry. Mount Kanlaon erupted, forcing the evacuation of 87,000 residents and disrupting air travel. Corporate Highlights - Murdoch Succession Battle: A Nevada court ruled against Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to consolidate his son Lachlan's control over Fox News and News Corp. The court cited "bad faith" motivations tied to preserving the conglomerate's right-wing slant, intensifying uncertainty over the future leadership. - Comcast Competition Woes: Comcast (CMCSA) fell almost 10% after warning of Q4 subscriber losses exceeding 100,000 due to fierce competition from wireless providers. - Micron Subsidy: Micron Technology (MU) secured $6.1 billion in subsidies from the CHIPS Act to bolster domestic semiconductor production, marking one of the initiative's most significant awards. - OpenAI’s "Sora": OpenAI unveiled Sora, a text-to-video AI tool enabling animation and video remixing. Despite offering cutting-edge features, the platform emphasizes safety with watermarks and moderation. - Mondelez Considers Hershey's Buyout: Mondelez (MDLZ) is exploring a potential $50 billion acquisition of Hershey's (HSY), causing Hershey shares to jump over 10%. Any merger, however, depends on approval from the Hershey Trust, which has blocked similar deals in the past. - Gallagher’s Expansion: Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) announced a $13.45 billion acquisition of AssuredPartners, expanding its footprint in property, casualty, and employee benefits insurance.  Economic Highlights - Chinese Trade Slump: November exports rose 6.7% YoY, missing the 8.5% forecast, while imports dropped 3.9%, marking the steepest decline since September 2023. Analysts warn that U.S. tariff policies could further weigh on Chinese trade in 2025. - Upcoming US CPI: Markets await Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to solidify the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Recent Earnings Recap - Oracle (ORCL): Oracle's quarterly performance showed revenue of $14.06 billion, an 8.64% year-over-year increase but $51 million short of expectations. Its earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.47, a 9.7% annual growth, narrowly missing estimates by $0.01. Despite strong cloud growth of 25-27% projected for the next quarter, the Q2 results and forward guidance left analysts underwhelmed. - AutoZone (AZO): The automotive parts retailer reported revenue of $4.28 billion, reflecting a modest 2.10% year-over-year increase but falling short of expectations by $32 million. Its EPS of $32.52 saw a slight 0.09% decline from the previous year, missing forecasts by $1.12. - Ferguson Enterprises (FERG): Ferguson's revenue reached $7.77 billion, representing a 0.83% year-over-year increase but $38 million below estimates. EPS dropped by 7.55% to $2.45, missing analysts’ projections by $0.16, as the company grappled with higher operating costs. - MongoDB (MDB): MongoDB delivered standout results with revenue of $529.38 million, up 22.28% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by $33.66 million. Its EPS came in at $1.16, a 20.83% annual increase, outperforming forecasts by $0.47. The strong results highlight the company's ongoing momentum in the database-as-a-service market. Upcoming Earnings Outlook - GameStop (GME): GameStop is scheduled to report earnings today after the market closes. Analysts anticipate revenue of $887.68 million, down 17.65% year-over-year, and an EPS loss of $0.03. - Adobe (ADBE): Reporting tomorrow after market close, Adobe is expected to post $5.54 billion in revenue, a 9.75% increase year-over-year, and $4.67 in EPS, reflecting a 9.37% rise. - Nordson (NDSN): Nordson will also report tomorrow after market close. Forecasts suggest revenue of $708.98 million, down 1.44% year-over-year, and an EPS of $2.62, representing a 6.50% annual increase. - Kanzhun (BZ): Scheduled to report tomorrow before market open, Kanzhun is projected to achieve $266.36 million in revenue, up 20.96% year-over-year, with flat EPS of $0.22. - Broadcom (AVGO): Broadcom's earnings on Thursday are expected to show a significant 51.59% revenue increase to $14.09 billion and a 25.23% rise in EPS to $1.39. - Costco (COST): On Thursday, Costco is anticipated to post $62.16 billion in revenue, growing 7.55% year-over-year, and $3.86 in EPS, a 10.92% improvement. - Ciena (CIEN): Also reporting Thursday, Ciena’s projections suggest $1.10 billion in revenue, a 2.57% decline year-over-year, with EPS down 13.33% at $0.65. - HEICO (HEI and HEI.A): HEICO, scheduled for Monday, is expected to report $1.03 billion in revenue, a 9.99% annual increase, with EPS growing 33.78% to $0.99. This Week's IPO Highlights - Jackson Acquisition Company II (JACS): A blank check company targeting healthcare services and related technology, confirmed its IPO launch today. - New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW): The Hong Kong-based freight forwarding provider, with trailing twelve-month revenue of $52.15 million (-4.69% YoY), is slated to list on December 10. - ServiceTitan (TTAN): ServiceTitan, a cloud-based software provider for the HVAC industry, is targeting a valuation of $5.95 billion. Its IPO is expected on December 12, with trailing twelve-month revenue of $653.84 million (+31.34% YoY). - Metros Development Co., Ltd. (MTRS): This Japanese real estate consultancy, boasting $489.07 million in trailing twelve-month revenue (+52.84% YoY), plans to list on December 13. - NetClass Technology Inc. (NTCL): A Chinese education software provider, reporting $11.09 million in revenue (+19.79% YoY), aims to go public on December 13. - Anteris Technologies Global Corp. (AVR): The cardiac device manufacturer with $2.71 million in revenue will launch its IPO on December 13, focusing on expanding its presence in advanced healthcare solutions. Outlook Looking ahead, market participants are focused on upcoming US inflation data, which is expected to provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. Additionally, attention is turning to Wednesday’s US CPI report, which could influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy move. In Europe, traders are speculating about potential changes in the ECB's policy stance as they anticipate the upcoming meeting. Read the full article

[blockinsider]

NCPPR Urges Amazon to Invest $4.4 Billion in Bitcoin

Key Points

The National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR) has proposed that Amazon should invest at least 5% of its $88 billion cash reserves in Bitcoin.

The NCPPR suggests that Bitcoin could serve as a hedge against inflation for Amazon’s corporate treasury.

The National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), a free-market think tank based in Washington DC, has recently put forth a proposal to Amazon. The proposal, made on behalf of Amazon’s shareholders, recommends that the tech behemoth allocate at least 5% of its $88 billion cash reserves to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge

The NCPPR argues that holding Bitcoin in the corporate treasury could benefit Amazon by serving as a hedge against inflation. The proposal was shared by Tim Kotzman, who explained why Bitcoin is a more advantageous asset than traditional ones like corporate bonds. He highlighted the successful Bitcoin investments made by companies such as Tesla and MicroStrategy.

In the proposal, the NCPPR pointed out that MicroStrategy, which holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet, saw its stock outperform Amazon’s by 537% in the past year. The think tank also noted the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by public companies and institutions. It mentioned that BlackRock and Fidelity, Amazon’s second and fourth largest institutional shareholders, offer their clients a Bitcoin ETF. Furthermore, the US government is speculated to form a Bitcoin strategic reserve in 2025.

Criticism of CPI and Proposal for Bitcoin

The think tank also criticized the calculation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), currently at 4.95%, calling it a “remarkably poor measure” of actual currency debasement. It suggested that the true inflation rate could be double the reported figure. This, the letter argued, significantly reduces the value of Amazon’s $88 billion in cash and short-term equivalents. To protect shareholder value, it recommended Bitcoin as a strategic hedge against this risk.

Amazon and Microsoft’s Stance on Bitcoin

Amazon has not yet responded to the NCPPR proposal. However, the company has previously shown interest in blockchain technology, especially for its supply chain applications. The NCPPR’s suggestion is part of a larger institutional effort to promote Bitcoin adoption. In October, the think tank made a similar appeal to Microsoft, urging the tech giant to consider Bitcoin as part of its investment strategy.

However, Microsoft advised its shareholders to vote against the proposal, arguing that the company already evaluates “a wide range of investable assets”, including Bitcoin. The NCPPR warned that if Microsoft rejects Bitcoin investments and the cryptocurrency’s value increases significantly, the company could face shareholder litigation. Microsoft shareholders are scheduled to vote on the proposal on December 10.

Following the recent submission of the shareholder proposal by the NCPPR, Amazon’s board of directors will assess it to determine whether to include it in the company’s proxy statement for the upcoming annual shareholders’ meeting. If approved for inclusion, the proposal will be presented to shareholders for a vote during the annual meeting, scheduled for April 2025.