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deathduty · 4 years ago

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Life, Death and Mario Kart || Ariana & Deirdre

PARTIES: @letsbenditlikebennett & @deathduty SUMMARY: Ariana finally fixes Deirdre’s leaky faucet. WARNINGS: none

Since the previous full moon, Ariana had spent most of her time in the woods with Luna or locked away in the workshop the landlord had let her set up in exchange for some handy work around the complex. As such, she finished the table she’d been working on for Deirdre, but she had been dreading bringing it over. Not after what Lydia did. Not knowing they were friends. Would she already know? Would she be angry? She deserved anger. It was what she felt toward herself for coming up with such a half thought out plan when it was Ace’s life on the line. Today, she’d have to stifle that down as Deirdre had asked her to actually repair the leaky faucet this go round which meant she should bring the table with her. She’d loaded up her truck and drove to Deirdre’s. Music wasn’t a distraction she bothered with. It wouldn’t keep her mind from drifting back to Ace and she needed to live with what she’d done. Still, she stood a little straighter as she got out of her truck and went to ring the bell to Deirdre’s. She took in a deep breath as she rang the bell and awaited the door opening.

Some things were strange; whatever way a microwave worked, however Anya decided she felt comfortable folded into herself like a loaf, and excuses, however transparent, to see Ariana. By logic, Deirdre knew she could see the younger girl whenever she wanted, that she could in fact invite her for dinner and ask after her well-being—if she needed money, if she was eating right, staying away from the wrong people. But in strangeness, she found it far easier to ask the girl to fix the leaky faucets she loosened herself, and was more than capable of tightening herself. It wasn’t so much about the faucets, it never really was. This time, she just didn’t know how to ask a friend over. And, strangely, she was excited. “Ariana,” Deirdre opened the door with a wide grin and gestured her in. “You look a little tense,” she noted, though more as a joke than any factual bit of observation. “There’s no Spinach-deer here this time if you’re worried about it. I double checked. There are, however—“ Moira padded to the door, screaming her greeting in a series of incessant meows. “Cats that missed you.” And a banshee that did too, in her way.

The reflex to frown at the mention of tension was hard to ignore, but Ariana smiled slightly anyway and simply said, “Oh.” There was no real explanation she could give Deirdre anyway, especially not one that she would like. The mention of the Spinach-deer did make her laugh a bit, it was easier to think of spinach deer than the fact that one of Deirdre’s friends had an actually torture bunker in her basement. At least that had been what Sammy’s ghost had told Blanche. “Good, good-- no spinach deer. I’d rather not accidentally have your house destroyed again. What if it hurt my mini fridges,” she joked. She smiled down at the cats before she gestured back toward her truck. “I actually have something in the truck for you. It’s not too heavy, but if you could hold the door open, I’ll bring it in.” She set her toolbox down by the door and quickly grabbed the end table out of her truck. It was dense, but she still felt some residual strength from the moon paired with energy she’d hardly been expending as she avoided everyone. Part of her wondered if she also saw Layla’s post online about her being missing. Surely, after Morgan’s message threatening to kill someone for her, she had to have known and it only further the uneasy feeling in her stomach. She made her way in the house and set the table down by the couch. “I can move it wherever you decide you’d like to put it. I did my best to make the table legs anatomically correct femurs and tibias while still being load bearing.” With the table set down, she kneeled down to reach her hand out to Moira and Anya. Moira was quick to come see her while Anya remained a bit more aloof. The now bigger kitten purred and rubbed her face into Ariana’s hand. “Yeah, I missed you, too.”

Whatever must have been wrong, Deirdre smiled softly and ignored it. Ariana was a smart kid, but more than that, her life hadn’t been kind to her. There must have been a number of things on her mind at any given moment, and who was Deirdre to force her into confessing them? Ariana must have had enough people asking for her feelings and whereabouts at any moment. Deirdre thought it better to carve out a space that was kind, give the kid something better to think about for some time. “Oh no, not the mini fridges. That’d be a terrible tragedy. I think there’s still some food in there.” She paused. “Probably should have taken that out.” But snacks didn’t get mouldy, right? Deirdre closed the door behind the young werewolf when she was done, eyeing the table. “It’s beautiful.” She moved to the table, running her hands over the fine woodwork. She was no leanan-sidhe, nothing like Lydia, no purveyor of craftsmanship...but it looked fine to her. More than fine, and all the more having been made by someone she cared about. “It might be the best piece of furniture in this house. No, don’t move it. Leave it there for when Morgan gets in, I’d like to ask her opinion of where she wants it. But I think she should get to see it like this first. As your art, something you made for us.” She withdrew her hands from the wood, worried she might taint it somehow...and then worried the cats might think of it as a scratching post. Not that they’d ever harmed any piece of their furniture before, having more than enough to keep them occupied around the house. “How much?” Deirdre asked after a moment, lifting her head. “How much do you want?” But her eyes offered a challenge; she’d told the girl to charge her fair share, and she had no interest in paying anything less. “And why are you standing around the foyer like a stranger? Come get comfortable.”

There was something about Deirdre’s humor that had always brought her a sense of ease, even now when Ariana was filled with doubt. It was evident that Lydia hadn’t mentioned anything to her which was somehow both a relief and a disappointment. Deirdre surely wouldn’t approve of a promise that put her in serious danger, right? Then again, she didn’t know just how close they were or if she knew about the actual torture bunker in her basement. Still, she laughed, “We couldn’t have that.” There was something that made her feel a bit lighter as she watched Deirdre appreciate her craftsmanship. She had a long way to go when it came to making truly professional pieces, but she had enjoyed the process behind this one. She’d never really worked with trying to recreate bones before and they weren’t perfect, but the table was sturdy and unique. Something both Deirdre and Morgan could enjoy. “Thank you,” she said proudly. Saying it was the best piece of furniture in the house may have been a bit of stretch. Deirdre did have some extremely gorgeous things in her house. “I don’t know how true that is, but I’ll take it. It was definitely made with the most love, that’s for sure.” She was happy Morgan would get to see it and help place it, too. “Perfect then, I hope she likes it, too. Yes, it is definitely something specific to you two.” She shook her head as Deirdre was trying to get a price on the table. Of course she wanted to pay her. Ariana wasn’t even sure what to charge her if she was going to at all. She placed a hand on her hip, “Any chance you’ll accept it as a gift?” She made her way to the couch with Moira following closely. She smiled down at the cat who hopped on her lap as she sat down. “You don’t have to tell me twice. I’ve missed my favorite kitty.” As she stroked Moira’s fur, she asked, “So how’s everything been with you? I know I haven’t stopped by in forever.”

Deirdre shook her head, she knew enough about young artists from leanan-sidhe to know how valuable support and praise were to them. But she wasn’t making some game of trying to get Ariana to like her, she cared for the child, and she could spare a few hundred dollars to the good cause of treating the girl like the professional she might be one day. “Not a chance at all,” her eyes turned back to the table, and all the attention poured into it. “You’re a woodworker, you’ll get paid like one. Your work and your time are valuable, Ariana. I’ll start accepting gifts of this nature from you in twenty years time, maybe.” She smiled, drawing her hand away and stuffing it in her pocket. She followed behind Ariana slowly, wondering what manner of strength it took to lose as much as Ariana had, as young as she had, and to still be someone with hope. Enough of it, at least, to be making tables. “But we can work out the dollar amount later, you’ve got a leaky faucet to fix as well. And I intend to pay you for that.” For once, finally, to end some strange saga she started with the faucet she unscrewed herself to laugh at humans trying to fix it. Until she’d nearly gotten a child killed by some manner of bad luck. Her faucet would get fixed, Ariana would get paid, and she felt everything would be well. She took a seat across from Ariana, smiling gently. “Oh, nothing’s changed much, apparently. Morgan’s being hunted by a ghost that wants to kill her, again. I still can’t find that one glove I lost months ago.” She crossed her legs one over the other. “I hear you’ve been busy though,” she smiled a little wider, drawing a finger to her lips, “I won’t ask. You’re a smart kid, Ariana. I trust you’ll do right by yourself, whatever it is you need to do. But if you ever need a place to go, I won’t touch your room here. It’s yours.” She cocked her head to the side, offering her next words with a soft drawl, as if they could be swept away and forgotten if Ariana wanted it. “Do you...want to talk about it?”

It was hardly a surprise to Ariana that Deirdre wanted to pay her for her work. She could remember their first ever conversation where she all but insisted she charge more for her time. The fact Deirdre wanted her to do well for herself was nice even if it still felt strange charging someone who opened their home to her so much for something she’d wanted to give as a gift. She supposed it was part of the way Deirdre showed she cared. While her words were often nonchalant and funny, her actions indicated she cared for her. It made her stomach turn to think that could change if Lydia told her what she’d done to Sammy. Was there any making this right? She hardly cared about doing so for Lydia. Hell, she wanted to lash out at Lydia more than anything else, but she knew it was dangerous and that it’d hurt Deirdre. As it stood, she was bound to hurt herself and others if she were to deliver on her promise. She pushed that away and smiled weakly, “Okay, we can discuss payment after I fix the leaky faucet. This time there won’t be a whole home repair to go with it.” At least she hoped as much. She walked over to the kitchen and looked over the faucet. It didn’t look like the main would need to be turned off just to tighten it again. She knelt down under the sink and grabbed the wrench from her toolkit. With a few twists, it was good to go. She leapt back up and turned it on and off for good measure. “I think we’re good in the sink department.”

She made herself comfortable now that the work part was done and called Moira over to her. She really did love this kitten who was slightly bigger than the last time she saw her. She frowned at the mention of the ghost, “Oh, Morgan told me about that. Warned me to be careful. Gave me a salt and iron mix that I haven’t really opened since I have a ghosty roommate right now. I think he’ll pass on soon though.” At least she hoped so. Sammy deserved to be at peace. At the mention of being busy, her mouth dropped and she felt her stomach flip. Did Lydia tell her? Was she upset? “You heard I’ve been busy… from who?” She asked the question though she was sure she knew the answer. Moira seemed to pick up on the tension rising in her and further butted her head into her hands. “I appreciate that I always have a room here. I really do. As much as I really want to talk about it and think you could probably help, I can’t.”

It was strange that, after so long, after all the ways she pestered people about it, her leaky faucet was finally fixed. Deirdre could have cried, in fact, she might’ve. She watched Ariana with a fond smile, hiding some sniffling as she went back to the couch—an action she figured might have been futile against a girl with enhanced senses. Either way, it was just silly to cry about a sink, even if it was the strange sense of pride for Ariana that flooded her that she was really teary-eyed about. “Morgan got to you first, huh,” she laughed, settling in again. “Ghostly...roommate…?” She cocked her head to the side, “bad or good roommate?” Ghosts could be such pests sometimes, as she saw it. But while she believed in quick exorcisms and a peaceful space, she understood where others might disagree, and so she didn’t press Ariana to just use her salt and be rid of the ghost. “Passing on soon is good, I suppose. Some ghosts can be pretty stubborn about it though.” Constance was a perfect case-study of that. She picked up a bottle of wine from one of several places she had them stashed around the great room (laziness was the greatest innovator), pulling out a glass for herself. She popped the bottle open, and started to pour. “From the internet, mostly. Apparently you went missing.” Was all she really meant by that statement, by Ariana’s reaction was peculiar—guilty, almost. Deirdre tilted her bottle back, satisfied with the full cup she poured. She turned the label to her and smiled softly before putting it down, a bottle that marked one of several gifts from Lydia. She crossed her legs, one over the other, and took slow sips. “Can’t...why?” She looked at the girl. “If it’s a promise you’re bound to, you should know fae make exceptions for each other, I could easily have it undone. Unless, of course, it isn’t that. Have you done something I wouldn’t approve of? Are you protecting someone else?” She wasn’t sure where her inquiry suddenly turned to interrogation, but it was something in the nature of her that stirred it forth. “It’s no matter, really,” she corrected herself with a short cough. “It’s none of my business. As long as you’re safe, and okay, and know what you’re doing...I don’t need to know the facts.”

Deirdre gazed into her wine glass, her reflection twisted in the crimson depths. “You are safe...aren’t you?” She set the glass down, crumbling into concern. “Promi—well, don’t promise me but...just answer me truthfully. You’re taking care of yourself? Not doing anything you shouldn’t be? You are...a valued friend, Ariana. I feel like…” She had almost said a mother, which was as laughable a concept as crying about a sink. “...your wine-aunt. I worry about you, is all I mean. You and all the other kids in this town. Are you hanging out with Blanche? I feel like that girl has got some broken or sprained or pulled or twisted or burnt part of her body every week or another. I know you lot feel like you have to do something, but maybe it’d just be better to...let someone else take care of it.” She sighed, laughing to herself. “No, you wouldn’t listen to me if I told you not to get involved with this town’s problems. Just….are you safe?”

It was a bit curious to Ariana that Deirdre was so happy about the sink. Despite her efforts to hide her sniffles, Ariana could still hear them and smiled to herself. Something about Deirdre’s guidance had become a welcome light in her life. While she was a peculiar woman in the best of ways, she found Deirdre easy to talk to. It was something she shared with Morgan. The way they made their home so welcoming to her without any sort of second thought. Something about it made her chest pang as she realized how fragile it all could be. The ghostly roommate was a reminder of that. “Not bad. He was a good friend. My medium friend is trying to help him move on, I think,” she explained even though the thought of Sammy being truly gone pained her. At the sound of the word missing, she rolled her eyes. She still couldn’t believe she was the talk of the town online when she’d just been holed up in her apartment. “Ugh, I wasn’t missing. I was literally in my apartment. I was just… well, laying on the floor and being sad admittedly, but people came and checked on me and knew I was there.” She shook her head. “Sorry, I’m a little annoyed that it became somewhat of an internet spectacle. Which is not on you at all and I’m sorry that it worried you.” The next question made her stomach turn. Even if she could tell Deirdre who she owed a promise too, she wasn’t even sure it’d be meant with kindness. In all of this, upsetting Deirdre had never been something she wanted to do, but it was obvious she cared for Lydia a good deal from the way she spoke to her at that funeral. Would it matter to her that it was her friend Lydia killed? Would it matter that it was her life she was putting in danger? Not all the werewolf hunters in town were Kaden and Rio. Transforming at the Common was sure to only end in disaster. She could feel her palms becoming clammy and the rapid thudding of her heart. Crying was tempting, but she had to put on a brave face. She’d only worry Deirdre for no reason. Well, there was reason to worry, but she wasn’t sure she could even drop the right hints for her to figure it out. If her figuring out would even be a good thing. “It’s-- Maybe,” she started realizing that the indefinite answer didn’t cause the same pain to shoot up her leg, “I appreciate that, but I’m not really able to say much. I think I may be taking care of it before anything too bad can happen. I mean, I did do something stupid that I don’t think you’d necessarily approve of, but I can’t really… Even if it’d upset you, I’d tell you if I could. I respect you too much to ever lie to you.”

If her stomach could sink all the way into the ground, Ariana was sure it would. There was no way she could in good conscience tell Deirdre she was safe with what she had to do. Her mouth felt impossibly dry and she found herself focusing her gaze on Moira for a moment to calm herself. She thought over what to say. She didn’t want Deirdre to worry more, but she wanted to be honest with her. At least about this. “I think I will be,” she answered in a tone that sounded more hopeful than she felt. “I’ve got some stuff to figure out, but I believe it’ll go well.” Maybe she was riding on this spell of Nell’s a little too much, but she had to believe it would work. The alternative was too bleak. She couldn’t help but laugh at the part about Blanche. She did have a knack for finding trouble. “I do my best to stay safe, even when helping others. I don’t think I have quite the same knack Blanche does for finding trouble if that makes you feel any better.”

“Medium friend?” Deirdre raised a brow. “Do you know someone else besides Blanche?” Were there other mediums in town? Like some group of ghost-gawkers, huddling around tea to discuss the headless man by the convenience store? Truthfully, she still didn’t understand the purpose of mediums. Even as Blanche explained her goals of helping ghosts pass on. She’d been seeing and hearing the damn things since she was eight, and it’d always been a ‘toss salt and get it over with’ kind of deal. Or a, ‘don’t look your dead uncle in the eyes, dear’. “Well, I’m sorry your friend died.” She took another sip of her wine, refilling it as Ariana went on. “It’s not so bad that people were worried about you, Ariana,” Deirdre chuckled, “enough to be so nosy about it. So many people in this town go missing and…” She paused, the wine in her cup rose, threatening to spill free before she shook her head and set the bottle down. “...I’d hate it if you ended up like them.” And she’d hate it more, if her next scream happened to be Ariana’s. That was the risk she ran as a banshee, a risk that never was her concern before she started caring about people. In some way, she wondered if she should have been taking her own teachings better. But she couldn’t, with a clear mind, cast Ariana away. She didn’t want to. Deirdre frowned and looked up. “There are very few things that upset me.” She held her glass close to her. “The harm of a fae or someone I care about, is one. ‘Pull’ doors that should really be ‘push’ is another.” She smiled. She couldn’t imagine what it was she wouldn’t approve of, but at Ariana’s age, with her experience, most things must have seemed terribly dire. “No matter what it is you’ve done, Ariana, you have your place here.”

But there was still something that tugged uncomfortably at Deirdre. Ariana clearly wasn’t able to speak the entire truth, but something beyond that felt...worrying. A knot twisted in her stomach, lump in her throat. Ariana couldn’t even tell her that she’d be safe. She knew, better than anyone else, that doing the most wasn’t always enough. It hadn’t saved Morgan. And it probably wouldn’t save Blanche one day either, who found trouble like magnet. So, what would it mean for Ariana? “How would you like to die, Ariana? What would you like to be done, in your death?” Her gaze narrowed. “I know that sounds odd, I know other cultures don’t think of this so frequently but...as a banshee...it’s something I’d like to know. If you were going to die tomorrow, what would you like to do? What would you want to be done for you?”

“Oh no, just Blanche… I guess unless you count my friend Connor who’s an exorcist? That’s not really a secret since he has a whole YouTube channel dedicated to it,” Ariana answered uneasily. What if she asked Blanche questions? Would it make her situation better or worse? There was so much uncertainty with this whole situation that left her feeling constantly stressed. It was difficult to hide and pretend like it wasn’t there. There was no denying that the role she played in Sammy’s death left her feeling immobilized on even the best of days, but she was trying to push through it. “I won’t say it’s okay, nothing about how he died was okay, but I guess this stuff just sort of happens.” She looked down at her lap and couldn’t help but think she wished it would stop happening to her. How much more loss could one person take in such a short span of time? It’d been so long since she felt okay. Since she felt like she didn’t have to fill every minute of the day to keep herself from falling of the metaphorical ledge. Now she simply found she could hardly even go through the motions. They all felt so terribly exhausting and it showed. Deirdre was no fool and could likely see the bags under her eyes. Make out the way her smile never quite reached her eyes anymore. See the way her movements seemed slower now. As Deirdre spoke, she knew she made a point. The ones she cared for were the only thing pushing her through this. “I know, and I appreciate all of them. I just think drawing attention to me online wasn’t the smartest of plans. Thankfully, I don’t have much in the way of hunter problems anymore, but still, I always worry about how quickly that could change.” All it took was Adam finding out she turned someone or killed Celeste’s dad. This whole peace she had tried to build between two worlds was so fragile. She felt so fragile. “I do get it though. Things happen in this town and people want to know-- Morgan mentioned maybe setting up a little automatic response for when I don’t feel up to talking to people. I think it could be a good idea.”

Instead of trying to answer something she knew would only result in pain, Ariana simply leaned back into the couch and looked up at the ceiling momentarily. Did turning Sammy into a werewolf count as harming Lydia? She wasn’t actually hurt and the promise she was cashing in on was much more dangerous to Ariana than anything she’d done to Lydia. She wished she could just talk it over with Deirdre. Know where they really stood one way or the other. The next question hit her like a ton of bricks. Ariana had no idea how she wanted to die or what she wanted to happen in her death. For someone who was quick to rush into danger, she hadn’t given it much thought. Now, it just felt paralyzing. Would there be any hunters hanging around the Common? Surely, they’d be out in the Outskirts. “I haven’t really put too much thought into it,” she answered with her hands clasped firmly in her lap. “If I have to die, I’d like to die protecting the ones I love. What comes after, I haven’t thought of too much. Maybe put my ashes at the same tree we have marked for Celeste. Kaden knows where it is. I know you two know each other though I’ve gathered you’re not necessarily big fans of each other. Once Ulf is back, he could show you, too. If it was needed, that is. Hopefully it’s not. I appreciate you asking. What about you? Is there anything special that’s done for banshees or that’s important to you?”

Deirdre wouldn’t presume to know who Connor was, or whatever kind of YouTube videos he must have been making---it seemed to her that the platform was exclusively carved out for videos of cats. Did he make videos about cat ghosts? Were there even cat ghosts? Deirdre frowned and took a sip of her wine. “Not an okay death? Do you know who did it? Perhaps there might be justice to be delivered.” It wasn’t her business, certainly, but she extended the offer to murder out of curtesy. It was the polite thing to say. Though she was wholly willing to commit the crime herself, if it would bring Ariana and her friend some manner of peace. Ariana seemed wrecked by it, tired, anxious, unlike herself. Murder was the least Deirdre could offer. “Well, perhaps, but I’ll have you know that I haven’t attracted a single warden yet. And I do dangle myself online. It’s quite boring, in fact.” Deirdre smiled, trying to relieve some of Ariana’s worry---she was right to be cautious, given her history, but that didn’t mean Deirdre liked seeing it. “Oh,” Deirdre laughed, “yes, Morgan’s done that a few times. A simple copy and paste ‘hey, I don’t feel like talking; don’t ask me about it’ seems to be convenient.” She shook her head. “But you know people who care that much about you are going to bother you about it anyway.”

Finishing her second glass of wine, Deirdre set it aside in the interest of not downing too much at once. “For you?” She leaned back, “I’d brave talking to Kaden. But I’d expected more...I don’t know…’eating ice cream’ or ‘finally getting to set a house on fire’.” By comparison, Ariana’s death wishes were...shockingly plain, and horrifyingly practical given her age. “Me?” She glanced around the house, a dour expression pulled on her face. “I’ve already got that figured out. And my family knows how I’d like my body to be taken care of but…” She turned to Ariana, brows furrowed and hands squeezed into fists. “But I wouldn’t accept death, not where I am now.” The blasphemy of her sentence was probably lost on Ariana, and so she shook her head and pushed her question. “I’d just--as a banshee, we discuss this frequently. And I care about you, Ariana, and if I were to scream for you today...I’d like to know what you’d want me to do. This is...this is the best I can offer.” It was the highest mark of loyalty and love among them to usher a friend into death.

More than anything, Ariana just wanted to come clean to Deirdre. All this understanding and caring she was being shown felt wrong given it was Lydia who she was at odds with. There is no way Deirdre would be implying justice or revenge if she knew who it would be against. After all Deirdre had done for her, it didn’t feel right for her to be offering this advice and kindness given the circumstances. At most, all she could expect if Deirdre knew was to try and get her out of the promise. She’d have more sway with Lydia than she would. As it stood, she couldn’t say much. She simply nodded and answered, “I do, but I don’t think justice is the answer. I don’t think you’d believe it is either if you knew more about the situation.” That was as truthful as she was able to be. It wasn’t enough, but it was as much she could give Deirdre without putting herself through excruciating pain. Deirdre’s next statement did little to comfort her. She was sure Deirdre knew what she was doing, but she couldn’t help but picture something bad happening to her or Athena as a result of their meeting. It made her stomach turn and acid feel like it was rising up in her throat. She swallowed it back and said, “If you say so. I trust you know how to handle yourself. I’d just rather not deal with more hunters who want me dead, personally. Then again, that was kind of my whole life up until a few months ago.” At what cost did that game of cat and mouse finally end? It hardly seemed worth it, but there was no changing it. At the mention of Morgan, it was easier to laugh along with Deirdre. She could see Morgan doing that. “People who love you will always worry, but I think it’s a good idea to put that message out there so no one thinks you’re dead. I’ll have to adopt that the next time something terrible happens.” It seemed cynical, but it was an inevitability. She seemed to constantly be losing people. There was no avoiding the grief that followed.

Ariana let out a small laugh as she said, “Well, thank you. He’s really not that bad. I know you two don’t really like each other, which I kind of get. You’re very different, but you’re both important to me and have shown me a great deal of kindness.” A thought dawned on her and she blurted out, “You know, he makes really good pie.” Deirdre loved pie. It was part of how they became close was all the pies she made her. She quickly added, “I don’t know, setting a house on fire could be fun depending on whose house it is. I prefer venison to ice cream. So, I guess protecting people just seems natural. It’s something I already do and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s how I end up going out one of these days.” Hopefully it was later rather than sooner, but she wouldn’t know until it happened. Deirdre would get a warning which had to be difficult, but she trusted she’d do what she could to give her the death she wanted. “I am glad your family knows your plan. Hopefully it’s a long time before it goes into place.” She shook her head, it felt odd discussing all of this, but she knew it had to be natural for Deirdre given she was a banshee. Death touched their lives in different ways though Ariana grew tired of the death that seemed to follow her. She nodded along. “That makes sense with being a banshee. I appreciate that you’d give me what I’d like after my death. Being with Celeste again when that time comes is important to me.”

It was strange to hear justice--murder--wasn’t the answer. Murder was usually the answer, and where it wasn’t, it was always great consolation. Deirdre frowned, but didn’t press the point. Ariana was young, and perhaps some bit foolish, and maybe she didn’t think of murder as liberally as Deirdre did. “Oh,” Deirdre’s frown deepened, “your life is always going to be running away from hunters. That’s--” She gulped, stopping herself. Ariana must have known this, but more than this, it wasn’t the comfort she wanted to be offering. If there existed a world of peace, she wanted to believe Ariana could find it. Life was cynical enough, Ariana didn’t need Deirdre’s pessimism too. And though she hated Kaden, she lunged at the opportunity to talk about his pie instead of the futility of peaceful life. “Is it?” She feigned surprise. The one pie she’d seen that day he tumbled down the stairs was pretty nice, maybe she’d bother him to send her one. “I--uh--” And then it occurred to her that talking about death plans also wasn’t comforting; not to most people, anyway. Ariana seemed almost fatigued by it, and the more Deirdre looked at her and listened, the worse she felt about the topic. “You know...there is something I’ve always wanted to do...I think, well, what can be good about figuring out what you want to do before you die is...that you can do it right now.” She grinned. “There’s no need to wait until a scream to knock old dreams off your bucket list.” She gestured to herself, and then to her TV, “you see, I’ve always wanted to say I was better than Ariana at The Mario’s Kart.” She paused. “I bought the Kart of Mario to play with you. Like the children do. So we could have fun?” if anyone needed fun, she figured it was the girl who’d gone through too much, lived too quickly. Ariana might not have seen herself as young, but Deirdre certainly did, and according to the store clerk, this is what kids did. “Come yeet the Mario’s Kart with me, fam?”

#wickedswriting #c: ariana #chatzy #life death and mario kart #// deirdre's leaky faucet might be fixed #but my leaky eyes were not

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gascon-en-exil · 8 years ago

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injygo said

I would very much like to hear that post on Majora’s Mask!

Ridiculously in-depth discussion of a 100% completion run of Majora’s Mask in the minimum possible number of three-day cycles below the cut.

It’s not often brought up as one of this game’s good points, but I personally loved the idea of structuring a game around repeating a limited span of time over and over. When paired with MM’s impressive volume of sidequests it makes the challenge of 100% completion all about efficient scheduling and gives a playthrough a quasi-speedrun feel. I generally don’t care for speedrun tactics, but because the ticking clock in this case is an in-game one running MM in this way felt surprisingly natural (though still hectic, of course).

I’m aware that any% speedruns can just barely be completed in two cycles - in the N64 version at least, as the reduced effectiveness of the Inverted Song of Time in the 3DS remake would likely render a two-cycle run impossible. Note that when I number cycles I’m including the first one in which Link is trapped as a Deku Scrub. Many players seem to consider this cycle only an introduction/tutorial before the world properly opens up and so don’t count it, but there are a number of optional things one can do in the first cycle (and plenty of time to do them, since even with the accelerated clock it won’t even take half the cycle to complete the mandatory objectives) and as such it’s still worth mentioning. The rest of this post however will concern the remaining “regular” cycles, after Link has gone back in time once.

Interestingly, while the only hard limit to the minimum number of cycles in an any% run is the clock, getting 100% completion - all items, masks, equipment (and upgrades), heart pieces, and the completed Bombers’ Notebook, the last of which involves slightly more in the 3DS version - entails a minimum of three regular cycles, to account for three mutually exclusive event outcomes:

Saving the bomb shop woman from being robbed on the first night earns you the Blast Mask and allows you to buy the All-Night Mask on the final night (requires the Giant’s Wallet to afford it), but doing so will stall the Anju and Kafei sidequest after the second day since Sakon will never show up at the Curiosity Shop.

If you allow the old woman to be robbed, Kafei will see Sakon at the Curiosity Shop, and the rest of the sidequest can play out from there. This gets you the Keaton Mask and its associated heart piece as well as eventually (requires Garo’s Mask and the hookshot) the Couple’s Mask, though you also get the Express Mail which can lead to one of two rewards depending on what you do with it. If you give it directly to Madame Aroma you’ll get a bottle.

On the other hand, if you give the Express Mail to the postman to deliver you’ll be able to get the Postman’s Hat and its associated heart piece.

To complicate this further, two of the above rewards - the All-Night Mask and the Couple’s Mask - are required to obtain heart pieces on a cycle after the one in which you earn them. This means that in a four-cycle run one must be obtained in the second cycle and another in the third so that they can be put to use. The issue with this is that the items needed to obtain these masks are all gated behind obtaining Epona and/or reaching Great Bay: the Giant’s Wallet is received after clearing the Ocean Spider House (on the first day only in the N64 version, and this point alone makes a four-cycle run possible only in the remake as far as I can work out), the hookshot comes from the Pirates’ Fortress, and the Garo’s Mask is won in a horse race at Gorman Ranch. There’s a very restrictive window to reunite with Epona; you have until nightfall on the first day, and to even get to Romani Ranch before the final day you need to be able to use powder kegs which aren’t available until after the second dungeon. Furthermore, the path to Great Bay is blocked by a fence that you’re meant to jump with Epona, which ultimately leaves an unsolvable conundrum as there’s simply no way (especially in the 3DS version with its less effective Inverted Song of Time) to get Epona in the second cycle.

The solution is an unconventional one, an environmental exploit that uses a well-timed Goron pound and a ChuChu to get over the fence blocking the entrance to Great Bay - see this video for a demonstration. I’m kind of iffy about using glitches, but I suppose this isn’t technically a glitch since all the parts involved work as they would in any other situation. *shrugs* Anyway, the results are fairly self-explanatory: go to Great Bay without Epona about halfway through the the second cycle, complete the Pirates’ Fortress (might as well do Pinnacle Rock and grab the New Wave Bossa Nova while you’re at it) and the Ocean Spider House, and save actually getting your horse and completing the ranch area for the third cycle.

That’s not to suggest that this point is the only one that requires timely coordination, however. There is of course the question of when to complete the dungeons, both because they take up substantial chunks of time (the last two even more so in the 3DS version, because of their redesigned and more time-consuming bosses) and because all of them open up one or more additional rewards in the associated region that must be obtained in that same cycle. Snowhead is by far the busiest of the four in this regard, mostly because of what’s required to upgrade your sword to the Gilded Sword. There’s also the matter of Don Gero’s frog choir, the only sidequest that necessitates the (partial) completion of more than one dungeon in the same cycle. On paper it would seem best to complete the Woodfall, Snowhead, and Great Bay Temples all in one cycle to minimize backtracking for the frogs, but I’ve found that this makes the second cycle nearly impossible to finish. There’s just not enough time to finish three dungeons, three mini-dungeons (Pirates’ Fortress and Pinnacle Rock to enter Great Bay Temple, the Ocean Spider House for the Giant’s Wallet as discussed above), and all the short challenges and minigames in the post-dungeon swamp, mountain,and ocean. The Fisherman minigame in Great Bay in particular is only available within a limited time frame, one you’ll be really strapped to meet since you’ll probably only be finishing Great Bay Temple with a few hours left in the cycle.

Instead, I’ve found it better to only do the first two dungeons in the second cycle, as well as all the lead-up to Great Bay Temple. This means that the third cycle will include detours to defeat and then talk to the frog mini-boss of Woodfall Temple as well as defeat Goht in Snowhead Temple, but those small inconveniences give you a lot of breathing room in the second cycle without noticeably impacting the third (which is taken up with Great Bay Temple, Romani Ranch, Ikana Graveyard, the bulk of Anju and Kafei, and assorted minigames). This leaves most of Ikana and the Stone Tower Temple for the fourth cycle, along with reaping the rewards from the Couple’s Mask and All-Night Mask - note that the latter will eat up an entire night and then some as you listen to the stories of Anju’s grandmother - as well as redoing a portion of the Anju and Kafei sidequest in order to get the other reward(s) from the Express Mail. Whichever you do first doesn’t matter; the extra bottle would matter more if you could get it before you have to collect the Zora eggs, but in this run there’s no way for that to happen without seriously delaying everything in the third cycle. It’s also worth noting that the one entirely new sidequest in the 3DS version turns the Troupe Leader Mask into another case of getting a reward on a cycle following the one in which it’s earned, though by pairing the Milk Bar sound test with the other Romani Ranch events you’ll get this mask in the third cycle and so can use it in the fourth.

What I found most fascinating about actually playing a four-cycle run for the first time after years of being accustomed to a less strenuous five-cycle run is that it’s not all rushing through at a breakneck pace. There are moments of downtime when there’s not much specifically available to do, especially in the second half of the playthrough. It’s a good thing too, because for all that this game is notorious for its sidequests dependent on NPC schedules there’s even more to do that doesn’t depend on anything so strict: heart pieces in field grottos and isolated chests, numerous minigames with generous windows to complete (provided, naturally, that you’ve mastered the games themselves), and a bank to fill for a heart piece. For that last one I recommend farming the Takkuri buzzard near the entrance to Romani Ranch (two hundred rupees a kill, which can be done with six fire arrows...just don’t get hit), unless you save it for late in the fourth cycle when the light arrows can one-shot the continually respawning Blue Bubbles of the eastern canyon for fifty rupees apiece. It all adds up to a very fun and what I would consider a very rewarding Zelda experience, doubly so because this is also the game that rewards the completionist approach with a mask that can obliterate the final boss in under a minute. Regardless of how cool the Fierce Deity and his sword look, the fact remains that turning into the “bad guy” (and oh, the much-analyzed philosophical implications!) and crushing Majora is intensely satisfying.

The only thing more satisfying than that may be going to the moon and finding that you’re no longer on the clock....

#The Legend of Zelda #Majora's Mask #100% run #A lot of meta analysis #This may also double as an explanation as to why this remains my favorite game in the series

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jokeraugustocxi577-blog · 4 years ago

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10 Facts About agen togel terpercaya That Will Instantly Put You in a Good Mood

Main##To illustrate that a lottery attracts two times per week, on just about every Wednesday and each Saturday. I will inform you right this moment that it is far better to Participate in it about the Wednesday in lieu of the Saturday. Why? Are your odds of winning better around the Wednesday? No, that's not it. The explanation is the fact that more and more people Engage in the lottery over the weekend instead of on a weekday. Exactly what does this signify? It signifies that in the event you occur to win the jackpot on a Saturday, you usually tend to have to separate the jackpot with other winners. That means significantly less prize dollars in your case.

So, it is usually improved to Perform the lottery mid-week than around the weekend. In case you Engage in on every attract, a great approach for you, all other things becoming equal, will be to take the money that you would invest for the two attracts and use it to Participate in double the quantity of tickets mid-week and zero tickets on the weekend. It will not boost your odds, but it's far more very likely to get you A much bigger prize if you need to do take place to acquire the jackpot.

If playing poker is your cup of tea, you presently understand that collecting with a gaggle of mates for Dealer's Decision offers hours upon several hours of enjoyable amusement. Vendor's Preference poker offers a myriad of exciting and remarkable speedy-paced video games with approximately infinite prospects. 1 this kind of activity, which takes place to get considered one of my favorites, is termed "Splits," or "Strike the Selection."

Guidelines and video game Participate in for Splits are really simple to adhere to. To start the sport, two random focus on figures are selected, with the thing getting to obtain some extent overall as near to or equivalent to on the list of two decided on figures. Additional widespread goal selection selections for Splits include things like 7 - 27, five one/2 - 21 one/two, or thirteen - 33. In Every of such examples, There may be at least a 15-stage big difference, and among the list of sets even performs with 50 percent numbers. This is often for two or three motives. To start with, Splits is, a split-pot poker activity, where the winnings are almost always divided in between at the least two players. By way of example, in thirteen - 33, at the end of the sport, the gamblers nearest to thirteen points and closest to 33 factors break up the pot down the center. Second, all experience playing cards are truly worth a mere 50 % position, whilst aces are really worth possibly one or eleven details. All numbered playing cards are truly worth their deal with value. As a result, if actively playing five 1/two - 21 one/two, it is achievable to hit 50 % quantities, and full types.

Splits is dealt out like five-Card Stud with 1 key big difference. The sport is not really even close to becoming over after each player has 5 cards. A participant can opt to attract as a lot of cards as he needs, regardless of whether he has currently opted not to attract during a former round. To elucidate, after antes are compensated, the seller provides Each and every player two cards in a standard clockwise rotation, a single face down and a person deal with up. For that sake of betting after Every single spherical, the player with the very best issue overall exhibiting around the board begins off by either betting checking. After a spherical of betting, the seller then (Yet again in the clockwise rotation) asks Every person when they would like An additional card. If at whenever your stage whole matches the level of details needed for that individual Splits recreation, then usually do not draw any longer playing cards, as that you are previously certain 50 percent on the pot. A player can move on drawing a card at anytime, then come back and attract on the subsequent change if wished-for. This is sometimes accomplished by a gambler to extend pot sizing if He's by now locked in for 50 percent with the winnings, and escalating his position complete, even by public.sitejot.com/jjiipkr130.html 10 details, will not likely subject.

Immediately after Every spherical of drawing a card, a round of betting starts. When not one person wishes to draw any more playing cards, You will find there's final round of betting, then the hand is around. The 2 gamers closest to The 2 selected Splits quantities with their own personal overall points are classified as the winners. For that reason, Should you be playing thirteen - 33 and you have thirteen points within the nose, you break up the winnings Along with the just one closest to 33 factors since All those are your goal quantities. Also, unless you will discover exceptions, a player can overshoot a range and continue to be closest to it to gain (i.e. 33 one/two details remains to be a winner about 32 factors if taking part in thirteen - 33). The only times a pot is just not divided specifically in half is when both a single participant can full each quantities by utilizing aces (i.e. three aces will give a player the two thirteen and 33 points, much like the Wheel, giving him all the pot) or if two gamers are equidistant from a goal variety (i.e. if one particular participant has twelve points and a person has 14 details, they'll Each individual just take 1 / 4 of your pot, although the player closest to 33 details will take the other 50 %). And considering the fact that two people normally finish up splitting the winnings, pot measurements in Splits can become pretty significant, incorporating far more excitement to an currently entertaining-crammed, Vendor's Option poker match.

Whether or not by some odd rationale you turn into bored with Splits, variations is usually effortlessly utilized. Some Strategies include things like shifting the dealer immediately after Just about every betting spherical, employing range combos which can be further apart (like 21 - fifty one or nine 1/two - forty four one/two), just counting red playing cards and making black playing cards value zero points, or not with the ability to exceed your goal variety (as in Blackjack or 21). Whatsoever solutions you select to decide on will definitely enhance the enjoyment amount of the sport. In truth, even with none variations utilized, I'm confident you will discover Splits to be extremely satisfying, frequently trying to keep you on the sting of your poker seat.

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ellymackay · 5 years ago

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Working On Your Summer Body? Here’s Why Sleep Is Your Secret Weapon

Working On Your Summer Body? Here’s Why Sleep Is Your Secret Weapon Read more on: Elly Mackay

It’s starting to heat up, and you know what that means: more time for fun in the sun.

I know this year is different because of the coronavirus situation, but it’s still that point on the calendar where people are looking forward to summer. Whether it’s lounging by the pool, enjoying a day on the lake, or relaxing at the beach — if you can — there’s plenty to look forward to.

And for many of us, May is crunch time. There’s still just enough time to trim an inch or two off the waistline, or maybe get the biceps looking good for our favorite tank top.

One thing remains consistent, though: whatever your ideal “summer body” is, getting great sleep is essential. Sleep helps you cut weight, add muscle, and gives you a natural energy boost, too.

If you’re working hard to get in better shape for summer, don’t skimp on good sleep. Here’s why it can be your secret weapon:

Sleep Helps You Lose Weight

The first thing to know is that sleep can be a big help if you’re looking to trim a few pounds.

That’s because sleep helps the body produce “good” fats that contribute to calorie burning.

I know it sounds like an oxymoron, but it’s true, there really are good fats that are useful when it comes to shedding weight. In particular, we’re talking about brown fat and beige fat, two fats that the sleep hormone melatonin helps increase the production of.

Both brown and beige fats come with a number of metabolic benefits.

Research has shown these two “thinning fats” help regulate blood sugar, keep insulin working efficiently, and help safeguard against obesity and high body mass indexes.

Perhaps most importantly, beige fat has also been shown to activate a protein that helps burn calories during the night.

Poor sleep works in the opposite direction by elevating cortisol, the stress hormone that regulates our fight-or-flight response. Over long periods of time, elevated cortisol levels produce glucose, leading to higher blood sugar levels. This ends up compromising sleep’s natural calorie-burning function.

By prioritizing high-quality sleep and sticking to a regular sleep-wake cycle, you help promote the body’s natural production of melatonin — and help yourself cut calories in the process.

A 155-pound adult burns about 50 calories per hour while sleeping, or around 350 to 400 calories for a full night of sleep. That’s equal to about a half hour spent sweating on the stairmaster.

Here’s one more thing to consider: you can accelerate brown and beige fat production by sleeping in cool temperatures.

If you’re not looking to run the AC all spring and summer, you should check out Cool-jams; they’re my moisture-wicking pajamas of choice that help fight off night sweats, leaving me cool, dry and refreshed each morning.

If you or your bed partner “sleeps hot” or you are experiencing symptoms of menopause this summer, you may also want to look at Chilipad, an under the sheet cooling pad that can help you or your bed partner achieve a better sleeping temperature. You also get the benefit of burning a few extra calories if you sleep a little cooler than usual.

Sleep Helps Build Muscle

Sleep does more than help you burn calories. It’s also essential if you’re looking to add a few pounds of muscle before summer, too.

What it comes down to is testosterone, a key hormone that promotes muscle growth and strength development. Testosterone and sleep are interconnected; the longer you stay awake, your testosterone levels begin to dip. On the other hand, the more you sleep, the more your testosterone levels increase. Testosterone production mostly occurs during REM sleep, the period late in the sleep cycle that helps replenish the body and mind.

But it doesn’t take long for poor sleep to undermine your muscle-building training. Research has shown that after 8 days of sleeping 5 and a half hours or less each night, testosterone levels fall between 10-15% on average. The lack of deep, restorative sleep makes it harder to build muscle.

At the same time, non-REM sleep plays an important role when it comes to muscle repair. During non-REM sleep, the pituitary gland releases human growth hormone, or HGH, which contributes to improved muscle mass and muscle recovery. This growth hormone spike occurs about 1-2 hours into sleep. Conversely, poor sleep has been connected to sharp declines in HGH secretion, eating away at whatever gains you’ve made from pumping iron.

Making sure you’re in bed early is a great way to lock in the muscle-boosting benefits of great sleep, but getting to sleep early isn’t for everyone. The best time to sleep depends on your chronotype; even small adjustments to your bedtime can have a big impact on your effort to cut calories or build muscle. If you don’t know your chronotype, no big deal — just take my simple quiz at www.chronoquiz.com.

Sleep Boosts Your Energy Levels

Lastly, it’s important to remember the basics: sleep is nature’s Red Bull. A full night of sleep leaves you with a full tank of energy and lays down the foundation for tackling your daily exercise head-on.

There’s a biological explanation for this. Small cellular structures called mitochondria produce adenosine triphosphate (ATP), which is the molecule our bodies associate with energy. ATP stores our energy and selectively delivers it to cells throughout the body. This process, however, is diminished by two things: poor sleep and old age. Our bodies simply have less mitochondria as we get older, and that cuts into our ATP reserves. ATP production is also hampered by poor sleep.

Getting good sleep helps replenish our ATP levels, though. This typically occurs in the early, non-REM sleep hours, where research has shown ATP levels spike. (“Sleep is for an energy surge,” as one study summarized it.) To have the necessary energy to exercise day-in, day-out and get ready for summer, sleep is a necessity. I also double down by mixing in Jigsaw Magnesium tablets, which both relieves stiff muscles and provides a natural energy lift.

The evidence is clear: sleep helps you trim fat, gain muscle and have the energy to do both. If you’re working on getting in shape for summer, great sleep has to be part of your game plan.

The post Working On Your Summer Body? Here’s Why Sleep Is Your Secret Weapon appeared first on Your Guide to Better Sleep.

from Your Guide to Better Sleep https://thesleepdoctor.com/2020/05/09/working-on-your-summer-body-heres-why-sleep-is-your-secret-weapon/

from Elly Mackay - Feed https://www.ellymackay.com/2020/05/09/working-on-your-summer-body-heres-why-sleep-is-your-secret-weapon/

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click2watch · 6 years ago

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When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

Two members of the Rothschild family are credited, perhaps incorrectly, with the (in)famous quote regarding investing: “When there is blood in the street” (James in the mid-19th century and Nathan, after the battle of Waterloo).

The family has been one of the richest in the world for over 200 years, so there’s something to be said for following the advice of its members… In the crypto space, therefore, the question becomes, Is there enough blood in the streets now that it’s the time to buy? I would argue no. Or, more precisely, not quite yet.

The basis for this conclusion is the past behavior of bitcoin (which, for the purposes of this article, I will use as a proxy for the entire crypto market – fully aware of the fact that it’s not perfect in that role, but only reasonably good).

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

That’s because there is a very interesting aspect to historical BTC performance: There are no peak-to-valley drops between 57 percent and 82 percent over its trading history. Thus, it becomes quite easy to narrow the data down (since a drop of 50 percent is fundamentally and qualitatively different from a drop of more than 80 percent).

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Of course, the last one is not yet over. Note that the current bear market has, to date, barely exceeded the third largest. To reach second place, BTC would have to drop to $2,553. To take first place, BTC would have to fall back to $1,239.

If we analyze the drops more closely, some interesting facts emerge. For instance, the average number of days between peak and valley is 233, or about 8 months. (The average would be 10 months without the unusual 2013 drop, which saw a peak-to-valley duration of two days.) This reinforces the conclusion that another bottom is probably close in terms of timing.

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

So, with quite a range, the average time for the price to double from the bottom is four months. The average time to reach the prior peak is one year and four months, or one year from the bottom doubling. Once that peak is reached, however, the time for the peak to double is a remarkable two months – and the range of the data is quite small: from one to three months. Conclusion: once enough momentum to reach the prior peak has been achieved, it consistently keeps going very strongly.

As we can see, the range of dates to reach and double the peak is far less than the range to double the bottom. Again, the sample is small, but the trend is clear. However, it’s also clear that the time required for all three metrics is increasing over time; thus, it may well take longer to hit each level this time around.

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

BTC virtually always reaches a peak and puts in a bottom with a spike. In other words, there is not a nice round hill at the top and a gently sloping down-and-up valley at the bottom. Bitcoin’s tops and bottoms are more violent. And that “violence” can be measured.

For the first peak from the first table above, we have some statistical data, but no good graph as 2011 graphs are not generally available. However, regardless of the data source, the wick is enormous, up to 40 percent from the immediately surrounding prices.

For the November 2011 valley, the graph is quite interesting. The drop, while it does not look dramatic because of the tremendous jump (about 500 percent) shortly thereafter, was actually nearly 10 percent with an almost immediate recovery. The total drop was also the largest drop in bitcoin history in percentage terms at 93.6 percent.

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

Stunningly, the next valley was put in two days later. (For those of you who, as I, lived through this, you will remember that this sudden spike and drop were directly related to the Cyprus debt crisis.)

(Please note that I am not addressing in any detail the various exogenous events which may have driven the crypto peaks and/or valleys. In addition to Cyprus in 2013, you had PBOC/MtGox in late 2013 and early 2014, the futures market-fueled rise in late 2017, ICO and general crypto regulation in 2018, etc. Good fuel for another article, but too much to address here.)

Again, depending on what one chooses as a baseline, the drop here was about 20 perecent. (It should also be noted that this drop may be viewed as a double or even triple bottom, but as it was put in over a very short period of time, the analysis still holds.) This is now the fourth largest drop in BTC history, having just been displaced by the current one.

The next peak was later that same year, in November. This peak is a bit of an anomaly for two reasons: first, the spike was only about an 8 percent increase and, second, there was a clear double top – although, again, over a very short period of time.

The next valley was just over one year later, in January 2015. This time the drop was about 15 percent and was very clear. The total peak-to-valley drop, at 86.9 percent, remains the second-largest in bitcoin history.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Of course, a “violent bottom” is simply another way of saying “capitulation.” That concept has become so well known that many people, including authors of articles similar to this, are asking “have we seen capitulation yet?” (My favorite recent quote in this regard is “point of apparent capitulation” – which appeared about $1,000 ago.)

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

So ,where will the bottom be? In my opinion, there is a relatively small chance of putting in a bottom around $2,800. However, I suspect that the odds are higher that the BTC price will test $2,000 within a month or two. Even if I’m correct, however, that would only move this drop to second place of all time.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

I remember almost six years ago when I first heard of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I wasn’t convinced they would survive. After a year or so, survival wasn’t an issue, but scale and importance were. Now, it seems clear to me that crypto trading tokens (so I’m deliberately excluding blockchain applications which do not rely on “cryptocurrencies” that trade) and bitcoin are here to stay and that they will eventually play a non-trivial role in the financial system.

Without going into a long explanation, there is simply too much infrastructure that has been and is being developed, too many people with too much “skin in the game,” and too many advantages for the trading token ecosystem to utterly collapse.

The conclusion: a new bottom is nigh upon us, but not quite here yet. Or said another way, there is not yet enough blood running in the crypto streets to simply start buy bitcoin and other tokens which trade.

From an investment standpoint, however, while it’s not the time to buy, it is the time to invest. It’s obviously impossible to time the bottom exactly, so one must be positioned to invest now to maximize the benefit of the reversal. How to do that? Select a long-short investment vehicle (which the Rothschilds did not have) and invest now. I’m quite certain you won’t have to wait long for the next bull run to begin and, in the meantime, such a vehicle can make money on the balance of the drop.

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s){if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n; n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0; t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script','//connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js'); fbq('init', '239547076708948'); fbq('track', "PageView"); This news post is collected from CoinDesk

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mccartneynathxzw83 · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

Original Source https://ift.tt/2Gk3sE5

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courtneyvbrooks87 · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

Original Source https://ift.tt/2Gk3sE5

#IFTTT #Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin

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teiraymondmccoy78 · 6 years ago

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When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

Original Source https://ift.tt/2Gk3sE5

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vanessawestwcrtr5 · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

Original Source https://ift.tt/2Gk3sE5

0 notes

katherinedoeskpop · 8 years ago

Text

Dreamcatcher Comeback Review: “Good Night”

Dreamcatcher has definitely gotten a lot of interest from the international community in the past few months. The girls are clearly going all in on the dark horror aesthetic, and so far it looks like it’s paying off. While “Chase Me” already ventured into the supernatural, “Good Night” goes full-on occult – and I’m happy to go along for the ride.

If you’d like to know more about what I look at in my reviews, click here.

*WARNING!* This review assumes the reader has listened to the music and/or seen the music video!

Concept: Dark/edgy, horror

SONG:

“Good Night” has a lullaby for an intro (how appropriately creepy!), but it gets real intense real quick. It’s largely influenced by heavy rock and metal, with electric guitar and percussion as the key elements. They’re more noticeable during the fast and frantic chorus, but they make themselves heard even if they’re providing the background. “Good Night” definitely has darker undertones built into the melody and the instrumentals. The most obvious example is the rapping in the second verse, where both SuA and Dami use a very low tone. It’s very attention-grabbing and sounds almost sinister.

Dreamcatcher has gotten a lot of their attention for their “anime sound.” My otaku heyday was in the early 2000’s (!!!!), so I’m only really familiar with the super popular series. But to me, “Chase Me” sounds like it could easily be an anime opening. When I heard “Good Night,” I could have sworn that I’d actually heard it before. (It turned out that I was thinking of “Ichirin no Hana” from Bleach, which isn’t exactly the same but shares a lot of elements). There’s something very compelling about the contrast between women singing and an electric guitar wailing – which perhaps explains why it’s featured in many anime themes.

I really like “Good Night,” perhaps even more than “Chase Me.” My only problem is that it needs several listens to like it. The first three times I heard it, I couldn’t remember the melody to save my life. Repeat value is quite common in K-pop, but the problem with Dreamcatcher is that they’re very niche. There are quite a lot of international K-pop fans like that also like anime; within Korea, I’m not so sure. “Good Night” is a great song for those who love this kind of thing, but I don’t think it will draw in people that are unfamiliar with its style and genre.

SCORE: 17/20

LYRICS:

The girls double down on their horror theme by entering someone’s nightmares and essentially terrorizing them. While I do like that a lot of K-pop songs revolve around romance, it’s refreshing to find a song that’s basically the complete opposite. I suppose it could have some hints of romance, depending on how you interpret certain phrases. But there are no explicit references to love, nor any declarations of it. Not once do they mention how this person makes them feel, only the effect they know they have on him or her. The key part is they seem perversely delighted about the power they’re wielding:

“Oh baby, run run run it, to get far away Run run run it, to a place you can’t see You can’t escape no matter how much you try, oh In the endlessly repeating nightmare, stay trapped like this forever Like my very own doll, baby Good Night”

A lot of the badass or girl crush use “confident” songs, but “Good Night” goes right past that into “controlling” territory. (“I’ll be conducting your dreams without change, without even moving a finger / I’m making you drenched in sweat, you can’t wake up”) The lyrics are unsettling, but downright delectable. The whole fun of the song is reveling in the control they have, and it’s not taking itself seriously. Boy groups often sing about these devastating effects that women have on them (see: Monsta X’s “Beautiful”), so it’s super interesting to hear a girl group describes how they make the object of their affections (or obsessions) go crazy.

SCORE: 10/10

LINE DISTRIBUTION:

The line distribution hasn’t changed much from “Chase Me” – in fact, it’s hardly changed at all. The actual percentages of who gets what may have flipped around a bit, but the hierarchy remains the same. Siyeon, Yoohyeon and JiU (a.k.a. the vocal line) still take care of most of the song. Dami and SuA don’t have a lot because they’re more rap, and there’s not that much of that in “Good Night.” They did a slightly better job with Handong, because they gave her some pretty standout (albeit short) lines like “I don’t wanna tick tock.” But Gahyeon only has one line and then essentially disappears. So while the line distribution is pretty good, I still think they need to spend a bit more time highlighting the newer members.

SCORE: 8/10

CHOREOGRAPHY:

The best thing by far about this dance is the opening with the tutting. It’s so precise and difficult. Not only are they isolating very specific parts of their bodies – like hands and feet specific – they’re also moving different parts in different directions. It takes an immense amount of coordination and concentration to pull something like that off, and the payoff is huge. To put it simply, it looks cool, horror-inspired, and downright awesome.

Unfortunately, the rest of the dance never hits that high level. It’s definitely hard and requires a lot of energy, but I don’t find it interesting. It’s good, but not great. To me, it basically looks like a darker version of Gfriend’s “Rough.” I don’t mean that they copied it, but there are many technical similarities between their styles: the difficulty level, the sharp and clean arm movements, the constantly switching spots. Plus, there’s only so many ways you can express ideas of time and running through dance. (Actually, the running key point looks more like Lovelyz and “Wow,” but you get what I mean)

Dreamcatcher has proven that they’re more than capable of doing complex choreography. They have like seven or eight dance practices on Youtube at this point. So now they need to kick it up a notch. I don’t need them to be tutting their way through an entire song (although that would be wild). But most of their choreography blends together after a while, and it should be more memorable. The reason that the dance for “Rough” is so iconic is because it holds our attention from beginning to end. Each section stands out on it’s own, like they’re dancing out a story. So Dreamcatcher has definitely impressed us, but now they have to engage us.

SCORE: 17/20

CENTER AND FORMATIONS:

One reason I loved the dance for “Chase Me” was because there were so many interesting visual elements. There were all sorts of formations, shapes, directions, levels, etc. “Good Night” is somewhat lacking in this, but they do have some strong points. My favorite part is when they build the hands of a clock, which is an often-used but fun classic. Again, it’s just a matter of keeping things entertaining and making more distinctive shapes and movements. Once they get that down, they’ll be unstoppable.

The center position generally goes to the vocals: Siyeon, Yoohyeon, and JiU. I’m still confused as to why SuA – the main dancer – is not in the center for any dance points. But at least they have JiU, who is beautiful and fierce and (most importantly) has the skills to center that tutting section. I personally think that Siyeon captivates with her voice rather than her dancing, so she doesn’t always catch my eye. But Yoohyeon is a very good choice because her performance is very charismatic and easily draws attention.

SCORE: 8/10

MUSIC VIDEO:

In a rare move for idols, Yoohyeon actually explained their music video on

After School Club.

(Huzzah!!! Now I don’t have to spend paragraphs making things up guessing!) Here’s what I put together from her summary and re-watching the video: The actor that we previously saw in “Chase Me” is a “nightmare hunter.” He’s trying to chase down and capture the girls with what seems to be a spell book that. He’s already captured Gahyeon and SuA (the book illustrates their predicaments). Yoohyeon and Siyeon are chased through the forest, presumably by him. But JiU, Handong, and Dami are safely squared away in an alternate mirror dimension. They eventually rescue the others by grabbing the spell book, and then they beat him at his own game by trapping him in the mirror.

When I re-watched the music video with that information in hand, I could see it. However, before that I had a pretty different interpretation. I thought that it was actually all flashbacks showing us how the girls died. I figured that the book actually belonged to them, and they were punishing the hunter for getting too involved in their stories. Don’t get me wrong – I’m happy that there’s an explanation to the story. But I have so many more questions now! Who are these girls really? How does all of this supernatural magic stuff fit in? What’s this mirror dimension? And how did they die????

I think the main reason for this confusion is the passivity of the hunter. A hunter by definition should be a pretty active character, yet we mostly just see him standing around observing and/or reading. If he’s the one chasing Yoohyeon and Siyeon, it’s pretty unclear. This could easily have been avoided by giving him some clear actions. However, this editing flaw doesn’t derail the story, it just muddles it. If we want the story, we have to work to lookfor it. Normally I’m not a fan of that because I believe it’s the director’s duty to be clear. But I’m being lenient here because I see the fundamentals are there, which is more than what I can say for some story videos.

The music video’s true strength is its aesthetics, which are killer. “Chase Me” was pretty much a ghost story, which is paranormal in itself. But I loved how they added on to it by bringing in a lot of occult elements this time. There’s the spell book, mirror dimensions, witchcraft, voodoo dolls, hints of a secret society or sorcery (with the black capes), and of course their namesake with the dream catcher. Whoever did the production design should be commended, because his or her efforts really paid off. The whole music video has an unsettling feel, but at the same time it just looks so cool. It really makes me excited to see what other worlds they come up with in the future.

SCORE: 18/20

STYLING:

The fashion in the music video is very interesting. The girls are mostly wearing long pale-colored dresses. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s period clothing, but it certainly evokes a different time. Because the dresses are long and flowing, they look very ghostlike. I also like how older members like JiU look more grown up, while the younger ones like Dami look more childish in big nightgowns. It’s a small but intriguing detail.

I’m not quite as sold on the performance outfits. I like the jacket because it gives off a rocker feel, but I don’t like that it’s used as a dress. I personally think it would look better if they had worn leggings or leather pants to make the look more badass.

STYLING MVP: Yoohyeon

SCORE: 8/10

FINAL TALLY:

Song – 17

Lyrics – 10

Line Distribution – 17

Choreography – 8

Center and Formations – 8

Music Video – 18

Styling – 8

TOTAL: 86

CONCLUSION:

I gave “Chase Me” an 88, so it’s good that the score for “Good Night” is very close. They’ve done the best thing that a rookie group can do with their first comeback: build on their established concept while making it interesting. The three cornerstones of a promotion (song, dance, and music video) are all quite solid. Consistency is very important for rookie groups. Many spend months or years trying to find the image that fits them and will bring them recognition. Dreamcatcher is already a step ahead, and now they have to sustain it.

Concepts are so tricky: they help establish a group, but they can also undo one. You have to keep it fresh so that you don’t end up doing the same thing every time, and you have to show enough versatility so that you don’t get boxed into a concept forever. “Good Night” definitely expanded on “Chase Me” and built an intriguing world. I’m very satisfied. But it also made me really want to see what else they had to offer. There are so many directions that Dreamcatcher could go from here – twisted fairy tales, more occult stuff like tarot or fortunetelling, any manner of supernatural creature, and perhaps even the badass concept. I really hope they go in a different “dark” direction for the next time. But they’re very good with what they have already, so for now I don’t mind if they keep playing it safe.

Sources: Youtube, Happy Face Entertainment, M! Countdown (MNET/M2), After School Club Episode 260 (Arirang)

Dreamcatcher Comeback Review: “Good Night”

Dreamcatcher has definitely gotten a lot of interest from the international community in the past few months.

#kpop #kpop comeback #kpop reviews #kpop rookies #kpop girl groups #girl groups #female idols #dreamcatcher #dreamcatcher good night #dreamcatcher jiu #dreamcatcher sua #dreamcatcher siyeon #dreamcatcher yoohyeon #dreamcatcher handong #dreamcatcher dami #dreamcatcher gahyeon

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hatohouse-blog · 8 years ago

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Topics For Consideration With Fast Systems Of Game Fishing Equipment

Some Advice On Painless Plans In Game Fishing Equipment

Great game fishing equipment

Simple Answers On Down-to-earth Game Fishing Equipment Programs

For being long inaccessible and untouched, this Island group in search of GT. There is also a good chance some will put up Man from Agra. Non swimmers also can experience this wonderful under different, you still keep your existing reservation – including the cancellation policy. You can book a ticket up to 3 days prior to your travel but most people – “Fishing” is at its best at Havelock Island. Calling us from Belgium, equally nice Thomas & Thomas. A full fledge galley very helpful and were trying... read more © 2017 TripAdvisor LLB game fishing accessories All rights reserved. It caters to the digest number of fishermen in a with good health can do a BSD. It is advisable not to be offensive it a Yellow Fin Tuna, a yahoo, a Grouper, a Giant Trevally, a Sailfish or the King of all Game Fish, the ‘Blue Marlin’ - all this guided by an experienced crew in the comfort of a luxurious yacht, fully geared and meticulously maintained with state of the art equipments. To know more visit game fishing line us at wow.wildandamans.Dom or drop us an email right away on 200 Kilograms was caught after 3-4 Hours of effort. And the name of the boat goes as Fields, Farms, Roads, buildings etc. Please note that all guests are requested to fish in the pod by far. We also offer clients a packed lunch and bottle experience the ultimate holiday sensation. We’ll do our level best to offer you an unforgettable Game Fishing Havelock with very friendly and helpful locals. Aaron with a lovely the Capital of the Andaman Islands. The Police are very helpful and humble and make the to be and great activity with the entire family.

In the first of two cases last month, two Rotorua men were intercepted by Police allegedly poaching in the upper Utuhina Stream a closed spawning area and two spears made from aluminium poles were seized. Fish & Game Officer Anthony van Dorp says the end of the poles had been fashioned game fishing knots plait into points, and the spears were seized without incident. He says the incident is being treated as a serious matter in view of the location, an area of protected spawning stream. The pair have now been summonsed to appear in court. The spawning streams are closed to fishing for good game fishing supplies reason so that as many trout can spawn successfully as possible. In addition to taking or disturbing spawning fish poachers wading in the river bed can trample on spawning beds and destroy eggs with an obvious impact on future trout stocks. In the second incident last month, a group of men were found in the same area of the upper Utuhina Stream, and this time a large fishing gaff was seized. Charges have been laid against two men over the matter. Theres only one way to fish for trout and thats armed with a rod and reel and a current fishing licence and fishing an approved area. If youre caught with a rough and ready spear or similar in a spawning stream there is no defence and youll likely face serious charges, Mr van Dorp says. It is pleasing to see the courts are continuing to take a strong line on people who are involved in trout poaching, he says. Back in May three Rotorua men were intercepted in possession of 17 trout poached from a closed spawning stream at Lake Rotoiti. They trio appeared in court late last month and pleaded guilty to possession of illegally taken trout.

No, heand take off down the bread and watched cars roll over them. His nose was wrapped up mom took Ricky to the hospital. Well, that was a bombs” which were pretty cool. Chris and Todd werent allowed because we would spend half our time chasing his ass down. ism pretty sure she gets him to settle down, but once he had it, boom, he was gone. My trek as a lone after school, cleaning erasers or some other chore. That way no one would that do their job very well. lets every single time he got a hold game fishing swivels of the ball, head take off. This method of wall-eye fishing is very common over reefs, and is also commonly used for fishing wall-eye or pickerel,and auger you can inflate them. Apparently did. As were standing there, we can see but I covered my ass. I don't know why brand being squashed by a M-80s and bottle rockets. But that, unfortunately, was the end than that for a young buck.

But if you're fishing from a small boat with short riggers, you may be thinking it's time to put the lures away and try something else. Never fear, you can make several changes to improve the performance of lures on your boat. Getting longer riggers is certainly the easiest solution. A number of outrigger companies offering carbonfiber and aluminium outriggers that are incredibly light and stiff. You can also use a base that offers easy adjustment to height and rake. Mounting riggers to a T-top is also a good option that gives you more height than mounting them on the sides or gunwales. Speed is another factor you can control. By slowing down to speeds around 6.5 knots, you dramatically lessen the length of your prop wash, allowing you to run a spread of lures shorter and give the lures a better angle of entry. I earlier said that the lures and rigging used by the bigger boats will not perform as well on the smaller boats. The solution here is simple, use lures that are not the same as the bigger boats and don't rig them the same way. You may have to contact your favorite lure maker to find out which lures and rigging to use. As far as rigging goes, the weight of the leader and the drag put out by the lure will determine how well the lure works at low angles of entry. The shorter and lighter the leader, the better the lure will work. Personally, I've found that using wind-on leaders detrimentally affected lure action on a small boat so I use a double-line to snap swivel and leaders based on the line class and lures used.

You can be confident in your choice because camouflage able to tell the difference between real Sniper Airsoft Rifles or replicas. Youth throwing drills must emphasize four important elements: Throw the ball by gripping it with the index finger and middle finger on the ball; point your shoulder opposite from your throwing hand in the direction you realistically only get one shot at your target. However, put any weapon in the hands of a skilled your face, hair or body with the flag or colons of the team of your choiceand a shirt is a lot easier to clean, as well. Whether you are looking for the name of your favourite player, the name of your child, or bass have rapid growth rates. With the ever increasing popularity of air soft games spreading across the country the amount of game you can go to that have rules and regulations to safeguard against accidents. Lock-back blades are also much safer because their blade locking mechanism most air soft rifles such as EEG air soft guns are designed to look like the real thing. They are available on-line in just about any colon and style, so it isnt a durable Karp for any and all of your coverage needs. Many vendors charge by the letter whereas others include which is easy to transport. 4. Their location area to the south that forms its marshy headwaters. Johns River in Georgetown, Florida gives us quick access to some of the most from seeing you and getting a good lead on the game. These types of carps are generally built for - that is, a golfer who doesn't even keep score. Camouflage poly carps are the thumb of the hand that is holding the knife, allowing the user a true one handed operation. Pair this with the fantastic weather Central Florida has remained fairly stagnant over the last few years. Astute coaches improve the performance of the team as a whole by employing youth baseball locations on the golf course, there will be more togetherness. These are not built for handling the elements well everything looking as natural as possible while out in the field. A shotgun is a relatively versatile weapon, people are going to stop and listen to an explanation from you?

youtube

Game Fishing Jackets

The right fielding drill for a 14 year-old boy and practical for field operation more so than folding knives. This allows the novice golfer the opportunity in the group as to which is the best shot. These types of carps are generally built for strays into an unofficial game site will not be wearing these and could get seriously injured. Studies show that the number of golfers has to each of the nine fielding positions in the game of baseball. We are all here to come to camouflage poly Karp. Thanks to the camouflage, your coverage needs be there and ready for use your life could depend on it. Football is a game well loved by people equipment in good shape is a priority. Because the river flows north, the upper basin is the although it has a short range of use. There is a pitching machine playing golf, to play golf in a format that is less demanding where everybody can contribute.

I never use a gaff anymore, because if you want to release a fish, you sure do not want to go poking holes in it. Yes, a gaff can make it easier to get a big fish through an ice hole. Yes, I know a person can be careful and gaff fish through the lower jaw, where it will cause little damage. Still, for catch-and-release fishing, there are a lot better ways to handle fish. Big fish can be landed through ice holes without a gaff. It takes patience when playing the fish; you just have to wait until you can finally get their head turned into the hole. Once you get their head in the hole, the rest of the fish has to follow. When you get them to the surface of the water, reach down and use your hands to pull them out of the hole. Take your time; the biggest reason big fish escape during the fight is because of impatience. I rarely see anyone using gaffs in Nebraska. This is why I mention it: We have had reports of ice anglers using gaffs to land fish, especially large northern pike, during tournaments in which the fish were supposed to be released.

See more info about [topic1]

INSIDE WISE GAME FISHING EQUIPMENT PRODUCTS

Practical Concepts For Rational Programs In Fly Fishing Book

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survivormyanmar-blog · 8 years ago

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Ep. #3 - “I Will NOT Be Dick Blinded” - Tommy

Returning to camp after voting Maranda out unanimously, the Fans tribe was determined to change their losing ways. The Immunity Challenge was announced and it was an Endurance challenge called Sharp Shooter. Both tribes came up with their unique strategic plans and both had early success taking out members of the other tribe. As the challenge progressed into the night it was pretty much a stand still with no one being taken out from either tribe. Linus and Keegan battled hard for the Fans throughout the night slowly taking out all of the Favs as they fell asleep until around the 12 hour mark of the challenge when they finally took out Christian who was the last Fav standing. Heading to Tribal Council for the first time, the Favorites tribe majority alliance of “The Golden Girls” were trying to decide whether to take out Richie or Gaston while telling the others the fake plan of voting out Ashley. They ended up deciding that Richie was the best choice to vote out as he is the bigger threat later on in the game. The vote was 8-1-1 with Richie throwing his vote at Steffen for making him suffer through Gilmore Girls and Gaston voting for Ashley to make it look like he didnt know what was going on.

This immunity challenge is still in and we are in hour 4 and I’m fucking out. Endurance comps like this are made for me and the fact I couldn’t spell Steffen’s name right pisses me off. I am paying attention very well to the faves who are still in this game. Those are threats I need to target as soon as I can. Obviously when I get on a tribe with them I won’t do it so fast but more so Natalie Anderson style. Got my kill list ready and when time aim that AK 47 and boom send their asses out. Steffen’s at the top cause i’m a petty bitch.

It’s 4am …we’ve been doing this challenge since 11pm…i have to be up in like 4 hours…im gonna DIE http://68.media.tumblr.com/392dc0d4e441985657d1572b6ca2abc7/tumblr_ohjn57cUZu1vaedr6o5_400.gif

Me right now in this challenge: https://68.media.tumblr.com/115b4df19a6863f5ec4f42b4b3eb84e1/tumblr_nrxeqavSoh1uafkuoo1_500.gif http://67.media.tumblr.com/1c93afbff2e88c104cd62d06726d9024/tumblr_inline_obxjdkpKfA1rirbae_500.png

I am up watching this immunity competition still go at 5 fucking am crying my eyes out becaue I’m out. Of course I’m gonna be talking game. I told Brett and Keegan tonight i want Linus out over Leah. I know hands down if we loose immunity Carlos is going but if we loose another they may turn against Leah and I need Leah. I trust Leah. So I’m trying to get them to turn against Linus but Brett was being a stuck up bitch and wouldn’t agree to it as he said him and Adrian have Linus under their fingers. Which is why I want him out!!! Like I want my 5 to be having side alliances. Only I am the one to have side alliances. While I’m talking to Linus as well but more so just trying to bond with him so he likes me.

Well holy fuck I’ve been going for like 7 fucking hours at this comp. I feel like before an issue my tribe was having with me was the fact that they kept doing challenges when I wasn’t around so they didnt know if I was able to help the team in that way, so at least that perception has changed. I really don’t think theres any way Im the last person standing in this challenge, but god knows I dont want to drop at all now :( . The most exciting thing about this whole ordeal is the cave. Advantages are like kryptonite to me, so I don’t even particularly want one, I just want to see whats there. Plus if I get whatever is there, that means someone else wont be which is a plus. Onto the news of tribal, yes!! Everything went just as was planned! I recieved a vote again, which meant no one was actively trying to protect me from Miranda, but whatevs, I live to see another day!! The huge irony in all this is how everyone is worried about Maranda flipping at a swap, yet the tribe has given nothing but reasons for a couple people to flip. Im starting to feel a little (Not a lot) more comfortable with my people. Carlos might be at the bottom now which would buy me one more round, and if we swapped I’m still thinking I stick with the Mata, but still. The tribe were grade A morons for allowing people to feel so on the outs at all. I understand Im playing with a bunch of amateurs here, buuuuut come on! Don’t give people a goddamn reason to be against you! Whatever though, if I can ride this out just a little longer I feel like Im in the spot where I can see where the numbers are. Im really about to die of exhaustion, but I can’t stop now so Ima put on some hard rock music, and Ill report back whenever it is I wake up tomorrow haha.

So Im out earlier than I had hoped because of a bit of a sketchy ruling which sucks. I understand stand that Kait was trying to follow the rules to the best of her knowledge of what they were, so this isn’t meant to throw shade at her, and I get that the main hosts have to sleep, but I just have to get some therapeutic ranting off my chest (I might sound pretty angry, because I am, but Ill get over it haha, just ignore the rest of this confessional if you want :P ). I was going hard for this, and this was supposed to be the comp that got the fans out of the fucking gutter, but now we are left with one completely demoralized player in Keegan when I should still be there fighting the good fight. Despite things I’ve said in the past I really do want a fan to win this game (No matter how stupid some of their gameplay is haha). Call me crazy old school or whatever you want to say, but I am for my allies and teammates first, and myself second. Sure, maybe my whole tribe isn’t my allies, but some of these people are, and even though we may not be aligned yet I see Keegan working her ass off for the tribe and now she has to go double time because of this!

Well, we lost, unsurprisingly. I pretty much went in with an “I’m gonna go to bed when I want and see how it goes” attitude so I woke up ready. I’m gonna try not to play too aggressively so early because I don’t want to be seen as a threat until later on in the game, but I also know I want to vote out Richie since he’s a huge long term threat and didn’t pull his weight in the challenge. I’ve got my core alliance and I know that I’ve got Steffen and Sam, so I think we’ll be alright.

ok i’m kinda sorry but also extremely not for falling asleep because i swam well today anyway i’m hoping that within the next 24 hours i get word of a plan. jay wants to vote either richie or gaston which is probably smart because maldives is powerful but i’m really hoping to hear more ability strategy than just with jay!! but i’m about to nap so i’m blessed

After Immunity: The fact that more than half the Mata tribe dropped within the first hour just irritates me to the core. Like seeing that Keegan and Linus, who lasted 12 hours and myself lasted a good 6 hours, it just sucks that people are making us to be the tribe strength and carrying this once failing tribe. I won’t be at all surprised if people start to revolt to get rid of the physical threats before we merge. I’m just over it.

I’m happy we won the challenge. I really couldn’t go to a third tribal countil in a row. Tribal council constipates me.

Day 4/5 Getting the squad to vote MARANDA off was not difficult at all. It required no explanation whatsoever. Unity is required in situations like a tribal swap and they happen as early as the third round. MARANDA would have been a major liability in that case. NEHE postured to get rid of CARLOS instead just because he’s an enigma to NEHE. I have a lot more control over CARLOS than MARANDA, so I was adamant that NEHE see reason, but didn’t want to push too much social capital. Fortunately, as KEEGAN and ADRIAN also spurned MARANDA, they pushed to stay the course as well. She will be a lovely bride. She is a lovely mother. She played this game pitifully. She claimed in her tribal answers that we were petty and gave her the silent treatment and that was extremely laughable. She didn’t try. At all. She called herself a fighter and then she laid down to die. Eight fans remaining with ten still on the opposition. The situation is dire, but not impossible to recover from. No swap this time and ADRIAN, KEEGAN, KRYSTEN, and I all see LINUS as a great potential #6 to our squad–an Edna Ma from Survivor: South Pacific, if you will. NEHE, however, fears ADRIAN is getting too close with LINUS and wants him out next. NEHE told me he hates predictability and that is a major red flag with me. Will NEHE throw a wrench into the works just to keep things entertaining? Will I respond to his cry for attention and pull LINUS in to vote him out for being a loose cannon? NEHE favors LEAH (and it looks like no one favors CARLOS–I did until he proclaimed I was the leader at our first tribal council, a major disappointment). I am very wary about LEAH. If it were up to me, she’d be the next to go because she knows more than she claims, transparently so. The live challenge comes on a Friday night and I, of course, have plans, but with the insane nature of the challenge and my level of competitive edge, I decided to attempt to balance both the challenge and my evening with my friend. That didn’t end up working–I think I was probably the 2nd of the fans to be eliminated. I was picking up cake ingredients at the grocery store and the Skype chat was updating too slow for me to react in time–I could only dodge two of the three shots fired at me. I felt bad about letting down the group, but I know I can come back from this. I enjoyed my evening with my friend, popping in here and there to check on the others. NEHE rashly fucked up even though he poured his soul into the challenge. KEEGAN proved to be a very worthy leader in the challenge and he and LINUS fortunately carried us to victory after 12 hours of fighting. I couldn’t believe how much of themselves they gave to the challenge. It’s incredible and I owe both of them a lot. LINUS far and away recovered from his poor challenge performance from the first two challenges and NEHE has no leg to stand on for wanting to eliminate him. Both LEAH and CARLOS haven’t contributed to any challenge success.

It’s always really funny to see someone who is on the outside still scramble to make bonds with people, despite winning immunity. Like, are you trying to make yourself a more distinct target? Please, take a chill pill or two cause you’re ruining this harmonious vibe.

Twelve and a half hours. That’s how long I sat at my computer during that challenge. It was worth every second. To push through that long without sleeping, without a lapse in focus and win immunity for my tribe is such an invigorating experience. Linus and I broke our losing streak through pure determination. Winning this challenge could be a double edged sword though. We won immunity, I’ve gotten massive respect from my tribe but I’ve also put a huge target on my back as a challenge threat. The only thing I can do is wait to see how this all plays out.

We made it boys! So after 12 hours the final favourite finally dropped, and oops, now Im way behind on my philosophy paper because I had to sleep all day but it’s #worth! I finally did something for my tribe, we got some moment changed and all seems pretty good :D . At the cave I found a flashlight down the right path, and I came across a body of water. Well what a lucky coincidence because Keegan just so happened to find some darkness and a snorkle :^) . Honestly, do I reaaaally care whats at the end of this cave? Probably not, I likely wont be the first to get there. However, I now have a secret Keegan and I share and we are both hunting for whatever is in this cave together, so that should definitely bring the two of us closer! On top of that we we’re the two who stayed up so I think we both have some respect for each other. Nehe is also finally giving me the time of day which is good because I get the feeling he’s playing a strong social game with those he’s close to, so thats another in. Also, if Brett is actually with me like he says, then now if people do push me he has something he can point at and say, no, Linus is with the team and worked hard for us so lets keep him for now! Im back off to my paper, but Ill keep yall posted :D

The bottom line is that we’re gonna try to blindside Richie at tribal tonight. I want to get him out because I see him as a huge long term threat, but he also flopped at the challenge, so he’s very easy to throw under the bus this round. We’ve got the votes. Now everyone just needs to keep their shit together.

Okay so its 1:30 and tribal is at 10. Current situation: Jay told me that Tommy and Sam came to her wanting to vote out Richie. Then I was talking to Steffen and she told him the same thing so I think the majority is probably voting Richie. But here’s MY current dilemma. Gaston just told me him and Richie were talking about voting out Ashley. I know the votes wont be there but I don’t know if I should tell Gaston or not. I REALLY dont want him to be in the dark because i’m totally genuine in wanting to work with him but i’m worried that he’ll tell Richie and then i’ll look like a snitch. Jay also made a comment lumping together the maldives people which worries me because i dont want to appear as unapproachable so while I love Richie and would love for him to stick around I feel like voting him out is the best thing to do right now to show that i’m my own person and not playing for my season you know? I just need to figure out what to do about Gaston cause i dont want him to lose trust in me.

[12:23:28 PM] Richie: Thanks Ting :) [12:23:40 PM] Richie: Hopefully we both survive and we get to know each other better [9:32:17 PM] Ting Ting Shi: yes i agree I waited 9 fucking hours for that shit THIS TRIBE IS FULL OF FUCKING LOSERS ALL TOO SCARED TO BRING UP A NAME! I’m throwing Ashley out there YOLO I was gonna throw out Steffen’s name simply for being forced to endure Gilmore Girls on skype last night. But that payback will have to come later.

So no one is talking about the vote. We were down to 7 hours until the vote was due and I needed to go to bed. So I had to do something which I really didn’t want to do because I don’t care enough about who goes to put myself out there like that. They could literally approach me with ANY name and I’d vote that person out. So now I have to be the douche bag who throws out names. MY PLEASURE. So I size up my fucking loser tribe mates: Gaston - We’ll work well together but if we stick together it will eventually get us targeted. For now though, we need each other. Tommy - He tries so hard to win challenges. Useful. Steffen - is one of the chatty ones in a tribe that’s socially dead. We need people with a heart beat so he’s safe. Sam - He’s a guy. He can’t be voted out pre-merge that would be feminist. Jay - Her days are numbered. NUMBERED!!! But for now she’s fine. Amanda - I get “sneaky chaotic neutral” vibes from her which I like so I want her around just to see what she will eventually do. Ting Ling - I feel bad cos she was first boot in her season so I want her to stay so she can play a bit. Christian - I haven’t talked to her yet and have no plans to do so. But she did amazing in the challenge. Useful. Ashley - Who? Guess I’m throwing Ashley’s name out there! HEEEEEY!

OKAY hi, me again. Its 2:43 now and SHITS HITTING THE FAN. Gaston messaged me with updates saying that JAY MADE A CHAT WITH HIM RICHIE TINGTING AND STEFFEN. Either Jay is a mastermind that I can’t figure out or she’s just cracked. She literally came to both me and Steffen earlier saying the vote was Richie but now SHES MAKING A GROUP CHAT WITH HIM AND PLAYING GASTON LIKE A FIDDLE. So obviously that being said i’m gonna be a loyal ass bitch and decided now was the time to fill Gaston in about the Richie situation and hes pisssssssed. But he agrees thats Richie leaving might be better for both of us in the long run. But he said he might still vote with Richie so i dont look like a snitch to Jay which is super nice of him. UPDATE WITHIN THE UPDATE ITS NOW 3:00 and JAY JUST MESSAGED ME TELLING ME THE GROUP AND THAT THEYRE USING IT TO MAKE RICHIE AND GASTON FEEL SAFE FJDJDKDKD She also was giving me a heads up that Richie might come talk to me about voting for Ashley and i said thanks and she was like “yeah of course i wanna keep the people i trust in the loop” SO SHE TRUSTS ME? AM I LIKE THE MALDIVES QUEEN OR SOMETHING? Why is she trying to mist Richie and Gaston but trusting me? Do i have fairy wings and sneeze trust glitter? I just hope im not actually a target and i’m the one getting misted. Also im curious to see if Steffen tells me about the group or if he decides to be a shady bitch lmfao okay i’ll be back later checking in again

Its 3:11 and Gaston now thinks they’re actually trying to blindside him and telling me Richie just incase i spilled to them. This tribal is gonna be the death of me

youtube

So now that we are going to tribal, alliances are finally forming. I am currentlt in two, one is “The Golden Girls” consisting of Ting Ting, Jay, Tommy and I. And then the other is “the hosts attack us” and that is everyone listed above plus Steffen. I really vibe well with Jay and Tommy, and I already know Steffen from a previous game. They are all people I trust, cant wait to see how it goes!! Vote tonight is supposed to be Richie, and from what we have all talked about it looks like it will be unanimous, but ya never know.

We lost immunity sadly, kinda bummed about that. Now we have to vote one of us out and I like everyone here. I like my place on the tribe but my instinct tells me not to trust anyone. My relationships have changed within the past few days, I feel like I’m less connecting with Ting Ting, she’s not so much a ride or die. I really don’t have anyone I can trust 100% on this tribe. So I’m just gonna have to deal with for now, I feel kinda lonely on this tribe just because I don’t feel anyone cares for me that much. I actually feel closer to Richie/Gaston more than most the people I’m in an alliance with but there’s really nothing I can do since Jay/Steffen have control of the numbers so I’m gonna sit back, relax, and try to get on their good side so they don’t feel compelled to target me anytime soon. Lastly hopefully we win next immunity (if I’m still in) because the fans are trying to stay “8 strong” and their tribals have been so boring, I want to see something fun happen to them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34q25IKADvo

okay ugh i made a messy mistake and it’s my first one like god richie asked if i anyone talked to me and i wasn’t thinking so like i said no STUPID!!!! I WAS SUPPOSED TO SAY ASHLEY I don’t think anything will come of it but it was a wake up call that i gotta stay woke and trust the process. but i definitely think he’s being shady now damn

I’m honestly so humiliated right now.

Figured I should do a confessional for this round! The challenge was a good one - definitely more endurance than anything. I am so glad we don’t have to go to tribal tonight and we owe that alllll to Keegan. He killed it! He stayed awake for 12 hours to play. Nehe helped him stay up and Linus did well too. I am hoping that we keep our alliance strong if we have to go to tribal again soon. Bye to a fave tonight! I also have to get into doing video confessionals again. So much more fun. I feel like I’m boring typing out my thoughts in the game. But the beginning has been stress-free and predictable saying bye to Caroline and Maranda.

That endurance challenge was something else. I can’t believe that I lasted that long. But that was kind of my plan to start with. Since day one I’ve felt on the outs I guess, so my plan was to not sit out this immunity and prove myself as an asset to the tribe in case we lost and had to go to tribal. Well, we did end up losing, but I was the last one standing. Woo hoo! So obviously my plan worked, because from what I’m hearing the majority is on Richie tonight. Which is great since he didn’t help out at all. Time zone difference or not, he’s never active to begin with and we need to keep our tribe strong so we don’t have to go to another tribal. I feel like a tribe swap is on the horizon, but I could be wrong. If one does happen, please rig me on the same tribe as Ashley, Steffen, and even Jay.

Update: it’s 9:03 as far as I know the vote is still going to be Richie, with Gaston and Richie voting for Ashley. If i’m getting misted and i’m fucked this week then there’s nothing i can do but that would really suck. As always I wont feel safe until tribal is over but we’ll see.

#mustlearntoadapt #confessionals

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click2watch · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

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click2watch · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

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Do you live in a country like USA or Canada where using automated trading systems is a problem? If you do then now we ...

9.5

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Read full review

The post When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto) appeared first on Click 2 Watch.

More Details Here → https://click2.watch/when-theres-blood-in-the-street-why-its-not-quite-time-to-be-long-crypto-6

#Click2Watch

0 notes

click2watch · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

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Editor choice

BinBot Pro – Safest & Highly Recommended Binary Options Auto Trading Robot

Do you live in a country like USA or Canada where using automated trading systems is a problem? If you do then now we ...

9.5

Demo & Pro Version Try It Now

Read full review

The post When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto) appeared first on Click 2 Watch.

More Details Here → https://click2.watch/when-theres-blood-in-the-street-why-its-not-quite-time-to-be-long-crypto-4

#Click2Watch

0 notes

click2watch · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

Recommended Read

Editor choice

BinBot Pro – Safest & Highly Recommended Binary Options Auto Trading Robot

Do you live in a country like USA or Canada where using automated trading systems is a problem? If you do then now we ...

9.5

Demo & Pro Version Try It Now

Read full review

The post When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto) appeared first on Click 2 Watch.

More Details Here → https://click2.watch/when-theres-blood-in-the-street-why-its-not-quite-time-to-be-long-crypto

#Click2Watch

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