#Seems to have been a good idea so far though if it needs rebalancing I could always open a segment and fill a few of the-

[uniquevocashark]

A Good Servant

Part 1 of ?

Summary: You would do anything to keep her happy: be it keeping her pet healthy, running her house or making her wine. Everything but for what you both want.

Some content warnings for this part: there's heavily referenced sex/sexual activity, pet play (not with the reader, this is an angsty prologue fic), brief mention of adultery, casual contemplation of murder, brief mention of whipping and a joke made about catholics. If I missed anything that you think should be tagged, dm me and I'll add it.

--

You start down the hallway before you can stop to think, holding the tray aloft in one hand. It's very easy to hear the strangled sounds of Lady Dimitrescu's most recent pet, some twenty something woman from the village, which only makes your job that much harder.

As you had been here for quite some time, you knew one of the most taboo acts was to interrupt her during 'training'. As you got closer you could hear her voice clear as day, offering soothing encouragements before the snap of a crop reached your ears.

You stop just before the door, wondering briefly if she'd use it on you for interrupting. But you couldn't send the heads of the other families away, so you steal yourself, rebalanced the tray and knock thrice.

There's a shuffle and her pet screams louder than before, followed by a half slurred string of begging and moans.

You purse your lips. You knock again, thrice, harder this time. You finally hear the Lady curse, some Romanian word you can't quite grasp yet, followed by quick shushing of her pet. You hold the tray carefully and take a precautionary step back.

She slams the door open and you catch a fleeting look at her black silk underwear before you shift your gaze into the room. Her pet, whose name you don't know and dotn care to learn, sits uncomfortably on the floor beside her masters bed.

"What is it?" Lady Dimitrescu snarls down at you, and you look up at the filigree decorating the wall beside her head.

"The Heisenbergs and Moreau are here to see you, Madame. They bear a seal from Mother Miranda." You handover the letter one of them gave you and fill her glass while she reads it.

You drop a bit of her special wine into it and hand it over. She eyes you carefully, taking a lemon slice. "Help me dress." She says and walks back into her room.

The hallway beckons but you follow her in anyway. She won't kill you, not while Mother Miranda has need of you, but you know she forgets how fragile people are sometimes. Her pet is a keen example; she clearly hasn't slept much due to her servicing, she's bruised all over and the way her lips wobble stirs some momentary pity in you.

Unfortunately for her, any stronger feelings have long since been cut away and seeing her in such a state only brings up questions of how you can improve. Still, you try to put on some faux sympathy for her.

You fill the smaller glass and hand it to her pet with a small platter of apple slices. When you look over to Lady Dimitrescu her brows are raised.

"She hasn't eaten for two days, Madame." You say instead of explaining. It had been one of the cooks ideas, someone that knew her.

Clearly, Lady Dimitrescu didn't realise that, "Of course," she replies crisply, her tone too sharp, "You may eat, pet."

Without waiting, you walk over to her closet to pick a dress. They are the same style and differ in their colour scheme; three are the same shade of light cream, twelve are pure white and three more are tinged grey. You pick out a light cream one with matching undergarments when she calls you over.

You've been working for her a long time, excess of seven years, so you know how she prefers to be dressed after stringent activity. You slip her bra on and her underwear. Slowly, you put her stockings on, as to not rip the expensive fabric, and clip them to her garter belt.

Lady Dimitrescu choses which garter she wears each day rather than have you or her personal amod do so, today it is the one that tangles easily. Its notorious among the staff for how difficult it is to put on. You know your way around it, though, fastening it quickly about her hips and thighs. "Have you put any thought into what I asked earlier, Madame?"

Lady Dimitrescu scoffs, sipping her water, "I have a personal maid." She jerks her chin to her pet, who has been munching as quietly as possible on the apple slices.

"Yes," you say lightly, helping her step through into her dress, "I merely doubt she will have time to deal with any duties other than those of a pet."

She eyes you dangerously and sets her cup down. You ignore the passive aggressive ploy to retrieve the step ladder in the closet. You flick it open and climb it as you pull her dress up, admiring the muscles of her back when she flexes subtly, then guide her arms into the sleeves.

"Who do you recommend, my gracious head of staff?" She croons when you work your way up the buttons of her dress.

You overexargerate your sigh at her playful tone. You catch her smile in the mirror and go back to buttoning. It is much harder to accept some days that this cannot last forever.

"Jessica is a cheery and dedicated worker with a strong back for lashings should she ever disappoint," her pet looks at you with mild horror that you file away and you try to strain your voice a little more towards reluctance, "Mihaela may suit your temper better, she has a quiet nature, has little care for material things and does her best to avoid punishment." That and her aggressive asides about the Lady would stop if she wanted to live.

Lady Dimitrescu moves over to her vanity, and you follow, grabbing the scissors attached to your chatelain and three roses from the vase on her desk. "Who else?" She asks, flicking the cap off her lipstick.

"Louise may suit as well," You say as you clip the stalks, "but Miss Daniela has taken a fancy to her. It would not be the wisest choice. There is also Rachel but she is pregnant with the gardeners child."

"Leave it to humans to rut like base animals on my property," she taps her lips thoughtfully,  "Wasn't Rachel married?"

"She is, Madame."

"Do you remember to whom?"

You pause in your arranging of the flowers on her breast and she catches your eye with a smile that burns you, "It was to the southern most butcher. One of the Bradleys, I believe."

She clicks her tongue, breaking eye contact, and you move to brush her silky hair out before she repins it. "Tell Heisenbergs retainer to have her husband brought here. It may be time to cull that wretched family," she paused, sipping again at her water, "Also, Mihaela will do, inform her after the meeting."

"Of course, Madame." You set the brush down, and grab her powder, dusting it onto her cheeks as she fixes the curls back into her hair. She is most beautiful like this, when her face turns delicately pensive and she stills almost completely. You almost wonder what it would be like, with her, and have to take an extra second to cool your heating face.

When she turns to you, with that deliberate, unabashed affection stealing the faux indifference from her face, it makes your heart quake in a way you haven't felt before. You have to look away before you both do something stupid. Deliberately, you plant your hand on her shoulder to keep her at a distance and stare intently at her ear as you put her earrings on.

Her pet has come to sit at your feet, Lady Dimitrescu running her fingers through her hair and you vaguely wonder what it would be like. What if you were there instead and what if this and that and everything else you could want but can't have. Neither of you will cross Mother Miranda.

Her pet gives you the dishes, the glass and plate empty. You move away from them, so that you're not tempting anything again and refill the glass.

"Shall I also have inquiries made about a new gardener, madame?" You ask as you hand the glass back, then move to gather together a suitable outfit for her pet.

The softness is gone from her face and you tell yourself you're glad of it. "Yes, someone more appropriate."

"Not a Catholic then?" You ask innocently. She chuckles warmly and you go about dressing her pet with a little smile. "And would you prefer the current one be brought to your daughters or sent straight to the cellar?"

She regards you seriously in the mirror, and you stare back into her golden eyes before returning to fixing the bow on the back of her pets dress, "Bring him to me when I'm next available."

You usher her pet back to her seat, putting the cups back on the tray, "That would be after dinner for today, or at three tomorrow evening."

"After dinner will be fine." She replies, eating the rest of her lemon. She hands you the skin, her fingers brushing yours deliberately, and you take longer than needed to deposit it on the plate.

"The families are gathered in the dining hall, Madame. I had the kitchen staff prepare a light brunch."

"Tell them I'll be there momentarily."

"As you say, my Lady." You curtsy as you leave. You make a note to have Rachel serve dinner and to watch the Lady's pet while she's busy. You may even go so far as to ask the cook to make a broth; this pet seems to make her happy and you are determined that her pet remains able to do so.

It's all you can do, after all.

Hey, little note:

This is a multi chapter fic with a planned unhappy ending because Courtly Love Trope doesn't usually end well. There will also be references to Resident Evil lore from previous games. Do I care if its accurate? No, not at all. Resi purists beware this fic. And thanks for reading!

[savannah-lim]

Now You Sea Me || Kaden & Savannah

Timing: After The Student Body Location: Caves on Harris Island Parties: @savannah-lim and @chasseurdeloup Content: Gun use (on monster), body horror (description of mermaid), violence (on monster)  Summary: Savannah is both a professional and a disaster at mermaid hunting

Savannah knew from experience that New England winters were no joke. The nights were growing darker, the days chillier, and White Crest lay on the tip of the Maine coast, its cliffs and islands nestled among the glacially cold ocean. So of course, it was an excellent time of year to go mermaid hunting with a miserable Frenchman. She’d dressed in some thermal, water resistant clothes, form fitting to allow her ease of movement and make it easier to avoid getting snagged on the rocks, a thick woolly hat, and a lined parka. She didn’t know exactly what she needed for the trip, so she packed a bit of everything; her gun, extra ammo, a barrel-mounted light, regular flashlights, flares, and even snacks (they might get stranded out there!). She’d even got ziplock bags for her phone and keys. All in all, she was pretty proud of her level of preparedness by the time she went to meet Kaden at the beach on Harris Island. “I’d recognize that sullen side profile anywhere,” she said by way of greeting. Not that she could talk. “I parked just off the road up there. I have some extra supplies in the car just in case.” She honestly shouldn’t have been so excited about this. “So, mermaid?” 

Kaden always hated the water monsters. They always had the upper hand in a way, especially when in the water. And, of course it meant getting wet. Not usually a big deal to him, he’d dry off. But in Maine in the late fall? This wasn’t his idea of fun. Then again, he was severely questioning if hunting was ever his idea of fun anymore. He sighed and gathered up his nets and harpoons and spears. It didn’t matter if this was fun or not, there was a mermaid and he knew how to kill it. It would be irresponsible not to tackle this. Plus, he had Lim standing by in case he got hurt. Regan couldn’t complain about him being in the woods alone. He wasn’t alone and hey, for once, he wasn’t in the woods. “Sullen?” Kaden let out a huff of breath. “I’m not sullen. Putain.” Alright, that sounded a little sullen. “What’d you bring?” he asked, rebalancing the load on his shoulder. “You have a med kit, right? I just… I have a feeling.” With his luck, there’d be some injury or another. “Sounds like it. Lead the way, Lim.”

“I don’t know what Putain means, other than the food, but you’re kinda sullen,” Savannah snickered, probably just a little too at ease about this whole thing. She was sure that would go away once she saw it again. Kaden was a way better companion on this sort of thing than Agatha had been though. The girl was great with a gun, but way too quick on the excuses. “I do. I always have a med kit in the car.” She didn’t wait for that annoyed look of disbelief to flash on Kaden’s face, cutting it off with; “for this, I moved it to my backpack.” She went about listing what she had brought with her, hoping it would be enough for Kaden to declare that she wasn’t entirely useless. Sadly, she hadn’t had access to a harpoon. “Can I have one of those?” she asked, leading the way down the beach and towards the cave she and Agatha had entered. “I think the police tape it still up, just--yeah, this way.” It led a convenient trail towards the sea water pool in which they’d seen the mermaid. Being back in this place made Savannah cringe. All those bodies. “Do we use bait? Like a ribeye?” 

“No, no. Not poutine, putain,” Kaden said with a sigh. “It’s an expletive. Like fuck or shit. Sort of. Either way it’s not the same as the fries with gravy and cheese curds.” He couldn’t believe this was what they were explaining as they wandered down towards the beach. “Glad to hear it,” he replied in response to the med kit. “Hope we don’t need it but this is White Crest.” As fast as his side had started healing from his forrary during the full moon, it still stung as he walked. He hoped his gait and slight wincing didn’t betray it at all. He didn’t need to answer any more questions about that night. “You want a harpoon? I mean…” He didn’t exactly have a good reason to refuse. And if she was going to help. “When we get down there, sure.” The police tape wasn’t far and when they reached it, neither of them had to even pretend not to get caught as they ducked under and headed towards the scene of the crime. And the monster. He had to admit, being police really did have its advantages for hunting. “Yeah, we should probably come up with a plan,” he said as he started unloading his gear, handing her one of the harpoons. “The best thing to do is going to be to get it out of the water. If we can harpoon it and get the net around it we can try to drag it out.” Easier said than done, he knew that full well. “Didn’t really think about bait.” Shit. He stood there, arms crossed a moment. “You want to be bait?” He didn’t want to be bait.

"Oh," she shrugged. "I only know Merde. Now if you want to swear in Korean, I'm your girl. Gae-sae-ggi." Savannah was quite happy to discuss expletives. She was oddly energised by all this, and happy to talk him through some of her favorites as they walked. "This is White Crest," she repeated, giving a humorless chuckle. "It really is a weird horror show of a town, isn't it?" And yet somehow her words didn't seem disparaging. She was still amazed he'd even agreed to let her come, considering how unhappy he'd seemed when she and Regan were out there on the river. 

As they approached the cavern, she knew this was the place. It was practically burned into her consciousness. Savannah placed down one of the larger lights, turning it on near the wall so she didn’t have to hold it. "I've never used a harpoon before," she said, positively energised at the idea. The bait part, she was less enthused about. "Why? Why would I want to be fish monster bait?" She shook her head. "I packed food though. Do you think it might like some sandwich meat?" Probably preferred its food fresh, but she hoped Kaden wouldn't challenge her on that. “Or--do you have a knife? Maybe I could just cut my finger and drop some blood in the water.” 

“Merde’s a good one, too. Putain de merde is really the best, though.” Kaden’s brow furrowed and he tried to repeat her Korean. “That any good? I’m guessing not. I’ve heard my uncle complain about the French accent coming through in my German. I can’t imagine it’s better in any other language.” It was odd how easy the convo felt. Like they weren’t walking into potential death. “No place like it, that’s for sure. And I’ve been to a lot of places, I don’t know about you.” 

As terrible an idea as this probably was, having a normie with him on this hunt, and a Federal agent at that, Kaden couldn’t argue with how prepared she was. It almost made him question if she was as clueless as she let on. Almost. “Hey, I don’t want to be bait. And you don’t know how to use a harpoon.” He sighed and insisted she take it anyway. “I mean, I know I’m prettier but someone has to do it,” he said, jokingly. He wasn’t going to push it, though. She just seemed so enthusiastic, he hoped she just might go along with the bait thing. Kaden blinked at her a moment. “Food? Are you telling me you brought snacks? On our hu-- I mean, encounter.” Shit, he hoped he covered it up at least a little. Likely not. Probably didn’t matter too much either way. “Do I have a knife,” he repeated with a scoff, like it was the world’s dumbest question. “The real question is which one you want. Not that I’m advocating for blood letting. Let’s try sacrificing the snacks first. It might work,” he said and gestured for her to go ahead, his harpoon in hand, ready to face the beast. 

“Could be better,” Savannah answered, honestly, but not unkindly. “But Korean is tough if you’re not used to it. I wouldn’t complain about your accent coming through. It’s sort of part of who you are, right?” They weren’t left with much time to dwell on that conversation though before the subject turned back to bait. 

“I should have brought some leftover meatloaf,” Savannah groaned, putting down her bag. “Yes, I brought food! What if we get lost down here, or one of us gets injured? I wanted to be prepared.” She’d probably gone a little overboard, admittedly, but he hadn’t exactly given her a list. “There’s a water resistant thermal blanket, some spare socks…” But the one thing she didn’t have was a knife, so she took his gladly, pocketing it briefly before rifling through her backpack for her sandwiches, throwing in some sliced chicken from between the buttered slices of bread, then standing back as if waiting for a volcano to erupt. 

“Meatloaf?” Kaden asked, his face pulling into a disgusted frown instinctively. There was nothing that had ever sounded appealing about that dish. “Hopefully the mermaid isn’t as picky as I am.” He had a feeling that, knowing their luck, this mermaid just might be. “Well, glad you came prepared. I guess. But putain, did you pack for an overnight trip or a hunt?” Then again, sometimes those overlapped. He sincerely hoped that wasn’t the case here. “I’m going to need that back when we’re done by the way,” he said after handing her the knife as they backed away. He waited, harpoon in hand. It felt like they were there for a minute. Maybe two. Nothing so far. 

Kaden’s mouth pulled into a thin line and he gestured to indicate she should stay put where she was as he approached the water, slowly, weapon ready. One step, then two. Still nothing. Three, four. Maybe it had gone and fucked off. Five, s-- “Putain de merde!” Kaden shouted, stumbling back as what looked like a woman burst from the water. If he didn’t know any better, he’d say she was gorgeous, green eyes, alluring and practically beckoning him to the water as she sang. If he didn’t know better, he might be fooled. But he did know better. So Kaden charged towards the beast, harpoon in hand. As quickly as the facade had appeared, it dropped, and the woman bent back and away, revealing a row of teeth. He thrust the harpoon towards the open mouth, but before he could ram it through the monster, its fangs clamped down, snapping it in two. And then another head popped out of the water. “Fucking shit,” he grumbled. Lim better be prepared for this, too. 

"I know you're French, but you don't have to be a snob," Savannah answered at his reaction to her mention of meatloaf. She'd prefer a good Korean BBQ, but it was tough to find a decent one in White Crest, if there were any at all. "Okay, so I may have over-packed a little." But it was better than coming unprepared, she thought... Savannah accepted the harpoon perhaps a little too gladly. She wasn't someone who expected to ever have any joy in hunting, and this wasn't the type of hunting she'd ever anticipated, and it was hard not to feel the pure adrenaline and excitement of it mixed in with the fear. It wasn't the killing that interested her. Not in the slightest. It was being part of something unknown and exciting, discovering something new. "I'll try not to break it," she answered, her voice dryer than anything else managed to be in this cave. 

Before she could say anything else, her eyes widened at the sight of a beautiful young woman emerging from the icy saltwater, the very same she had seen just the other day with Agatha. "Hi again," she answered, "miss me?" Oh, she'd always wanted to say something cool like that, but she felt entirely less cool when the beast half-swallowed Kaden's weapon, and brought a friend. "Oh no! Hey! Look out!" She pulled her own trigger, hitting the creature, but just barely. It made an inhuman groan as the metal scraped across its scales, leaving jagged edges. “Hello?? Why is this thing so slow to reload?”

“Putain!” Kaden shouted again as the shot rang out, diving out of the way of the beasts and the bullet. “You could have hit me!” True as that may be, she had shot the one mermaid, no mistaking it. Not clean enough to kill it, though. He scrambled out of the way and reached for his own gun. Shit, he hadn’t been prepared for multiple. His mistake, really. He took the gun and started firing where he could. One want through the first monster’s mouth, though he couldn’t be sure if it did real damage or clipped its fucking fangs. It did give Kaden a second to scramble away from the edge. Taking them out with bullets wasn’t impossible but with the strength of its scales, it’d be a task. Especially with two. Best bet, drag one of those fuckers out of the water. “Aim for that one,” Kaden said pointing to the left. “Going to try something.” He took the harpoon he gave her and grabbed a net, running over to the creature on the right. He threw the harpoon into what looked like the “woman’s” shoulder before tossing the net at it. Teeth tangled in the net and he hoped like hell when he pulled back, they wouldn’t tear it to shreds. Just had to get it out of the water. 

“But I didn’t!” Savannah answered. Come on. At least he could give her some credit. She’d passed her marksmanship certification with flying colors. She took advantage of Kaden’s gunfire, loading the harpoon again and readying for another shot. She kept her hands steady, all her training coming together to teach her to keep a calm and steady hand. Quantico sure hadn’t expected their training to be used for something like this. Their attention being on Kaden made it easier for her to land her next shot, aiming at the one Kaden had indicated. The harpoon loosed, whizzing through the small space between them with a low whistle and hitting the mermaid square in the abdomen. “Oh, that was a good one!” She picked up Kaden’s intentions and started walking backwards, dragging the thing as it made ungodly screeches that she was sure would alert every house on the island. 

For not being a hunter, Kaden had to admit that Lim wasn’t too bad at all this. This time, at least. Guess coming prepared made a difference. Kaden tugged and pulled and finally, the monster was out of the fucking water, letf to fucking suffocate. He turned his attention to Lim and helped drag the second one along with her. Once they were both on the rocky surface of the cavern, it was almost embarrassing to think of them as terrifying. Both were flopping and flailing, gasping for breath. The lures on top of them, the ones that looked like women, were still trying to entice them as best as they could. “Help… me…” they moaned. The whines turned into screams and Kaden had had enough. He took his bowie knife out, dragged the one near him, slit it under its jaw, then same to the second. Blood and guts poured over the floor around them. But the beasts stopped moving. Kaden pushed his hair out of his face and assessed the situation. “Guess we did it. Didn’t die. So that’s nice.”

Savannah credited her FBI training for preparing her for this sort of thing. Okay, not exactly this sort of thing, but intense situations, those were something she was trained to simply tackle confidently and pragmatically. She lacked Kaden’s supernatural gifts and knowledge of the bizarre, but she did her best to hold her own. She watched, fascinated as the creatures struggled on the cave floor, her torch light falling on them, creating shadows on their faces that made them look even more horrifying. She didn’t even look away or flinch when Kaden dealt the final blow. “That was actually… pretty fun,” she said. “If you ignore the mortal peril. We saved lives today. No more frat boy snacks for these things.” She sounded, and looked, terribly proud of herself. 

Kaden leaned over, hands on his knees, letting the adrenaline wear down, trying to catch his breath, when he looked back up at Lim. Did she just call this fun? “Yeah. Sure. If you ignore that one small detail. Sure.” He shook his head and started to gather his equipment back up so they could get the hell out of there. “Maybe don’t start hunting monsters on your own just for fun, though. I mean, not unless you value that whole life thing you have going for you.” Once his weapons were all gathered and ready to go, he looked back at the monster’s bodies. “We should probably burn those or something, shouldn’t we?” It’s not like he could bring them to Regan right now.

Savannah's veins were flooded with adrenaline. She caught her breath, doing her best to wipe away what blood and monster guts had made their way onto their clothes with the anti-bacterial wipes she'd brought with her. "No, no, I'll leave the sea monster slaying to the professionals, Ahab." At the mention of burning, Savannah furrowed her brow. "Oh, yes, I suppose. Unless we want one of those teens with phone cameras to put it on Instagram." Regrettably, and very reluctantly, she reached very slowly for one of the most important things she'd packed; a hip flask. "I... suppose this might help?" She held up an index finger, taking a sip before handing it to him as if she was parting with precious jewels. "Don't say I never gave you anything." She definitely wasn’t going to tell Keen about this. 

[deathandhumanresources]

Chapter 2 - Administrative and Clerical

As the pages of my book filled, progress on “The Plan” reached a fever pitch. Father’s groundwork was impressive when it was only sketches and doodles but the first draft of all Creation turned out to be more wondrous than any of us could imagine. The Djinn’s constructs were massive in their execution and the Angel’s philosophical designs imbued every structural cell with Father’s purpose. Each day, I grew busier processing the requests for names from every Angel working in the “Living Things” department. As the work grew more complex, with weirder and more diverse ideas arriving for my designation every day, I became more confident in my abilities. Before long, news of my efficiency reached the Upper Angelarium, where the Archangels gathered.

“Are you sure you won’t get in trouble for this?”  I asked the Cherub called Ornias as he held his creation towards me. “This one seems like plagiarism to me.”

“I’m not sure what you mean.” Ornias replied, though I couldn’t help but hear a chiding in his voice.

“I mean you stole this design from other Angels. I think I’ve seen this tail before. I’ve definitely seen this bill...”

“I may have taken inspiration from a few of my fellow spirits but this design is an original.” The fat Angel’s snorting face puckered into a look of disingenuous offense.

“It looks like you just mashed five other animals together!” I grabbed the design by its webbed flippers. The thing turned its duckish, rattish head towards me and stared with curiosity. I placed it on the ground where it scurried behind Ornias’ rounded form. I apprehensively asked, “Is this a joke?”

“A joke?” Ornias spat, “Does creation seem funny to you?” In truth, neither of us knew if Creation sounded funny because neither of us fully understood the concept yet.

“Is it mammal or bird?” I probed, attempting to refocus the conversation. 

“Yes.” Ornias replied with so much indifference, that I wanted to reak wrath on the Angel’s stupid face. 

“I’m truly at a loss, Ornias. Perhaps you have a suggestion?”

“Well, I was sort of thinking we could call it a,” he choked as if stifling a laugh, “a Platypus?”

“Oh, come on!”

“Alright, alright!” Ornias guffawed as he reached forward and clucked me on my back with his palm. “Look, I somehow got this one past the Approval Department and all I need is a name to make it official. Wouldn’t it be the best if this thing ended up crawling around with all the other animals?

“Well,” I considered, “I don’t know...” In truth, looking at the creature made me understand comedy a little bit more. And it was cute.

“What do you say, old pal?” Ornias thrust his right hand forward in a gesture that all Angels agreed meant “mutuality.”

“We’ve never met before today, Ornias.” I abstained from returning the gesture.

“Think about it.” The Cherub plucked his weird design up from the ground and turned to leave. As they flew away, the creature wriggled in Ornias’ grasp to look at me again. I smiled and it shook, startled, before burrowing into hiding in the Angel’s arms.

“Erm... next!” I called to my constantly growing queue. I had set up my operations in a vacant cubelike room of the lower Angelarium. When I found the room, it invoked a feeling as though I had meant to be there all along. Inside the cube was a chair for me to sit and a desk for me to place my book. From the room, I allowed one Angel at a time to enter and present their creation to name. As always, the Angels queued naturally and rarely made a fuss.

The next Angel in line entered at my call and I was surprised to see that it was a Principality. For those of you not well versed in Angelic Hierarchy, the Principalities are the assistants to the other Choirs of Angels. They deliver messages and perform tasks for Angels too busy to complete those tasks themselves. They are the delegates and were designed by Father to be pushed around without much fuss.

This Principality had hair as gold as wheat (a plant designed just days prior) and skin the color of olives (a plant that hadn’t been designed yet but one I’m referencing retroactively.) Her physique was rigid and she towered over the other Angels in the queue behind her. Her wings were so soft that they resembled clouds in the distance. Her expression was one of annoyance, brought on by having to wait in a queue when there were other tasks at hand. 

“Hi there!” I greeted, somewhat fearfully. “I did not know Principalities were invited to create for ‘The Plan!’”

“I am Eremiel.” the Angel interjected, “I am not here on Creation business.”

“Ah.” I said “Well I am afraid that I am in the middle of naming every single living creature. Is there something I can help you with?”

Eremiel reached into a pouch slung around her bony shoulder. She produced a page of parchment that she began to hold out to me. Before I could take it, she snatched it back.

“Were you designed to be able to read?” She asked dryly.

“I have the gift of all languages.” I replied, confused, bemused, and anxious for what news Heaven had for me now.

“Good.” The Principality unceremoniously dropped the parchment on my desk. The page slid across the surface and landed in my lap. 

“They’ll see you after you’ve finished your duties for the day.” Eremiel spoke with vexation as she left the room. On her way out she bumped the next Angel in line, an impossibly beautiful spirit with a crown of light and holding a round rodent with enormous ears. Before the offended Angel could protest, Eremiel’s eyes widened and she gave a look that clearly said “Get out of my way or you and the rat will be broken for all of eternity.” The beautiful Angel cowered and Eremiel launched off into the higher Angelarium.

I unravelled the parchment in my lap and read the message within:

TO AZRAEL, ANGEL OF NAMES

YOUR PRESENCE IS DEMANDED

TO DISCUSS IMPORTANT MATTERS 

REGARDING YOUR FUNCTION AND PURPOSE

YOU ARE TO REPORT TO THE HALL OF THE ARCHANGELS 

FOR JUDGMENT

AS SOON AS YOUR DUTIES FOR THE DAY ARE COMPLETE

BE PROMPT

SINCERELY,

GABRIEL, ARCHANGEL AND CHIEF MESSENGER

 “Urp...” Was all I could say as I let the parchment roll up and sway back and forth on my desk. I felt my face go pale. I don’t know how long I sat, silent and staring, before I heard a meek “Ahem” beyond my doorway. It was the beautiful Angel and its creation.

“Oh, er, next!” I called.

The Hall of Archangels stood at the top of the third sphere of the Angelarium. My work was mostly clerical so I hung around the bottom of the third sphere. The upper sphere was for Archangels and Principalities. Beyond the third sphere was the second sphere. That place was the work area of the middle management Angels: the Powers, the Virtues, and the Dominions. Above the second sphere was the first sphere, the upper management sphere. The first sphere was where the Seraphim, the Cherubim, and the Thrones worked closely with Father on “The Plan’s” most important projects. Above the spheres sat Father’s throne, where he shined his radiance on all Angels below him.

I nervously clutched my parchment of invitation as I approached the entranceway to the Hall. The landing for the upper sphere was paved with bricks carved from a porous grey stone that felt soft under my feet. Rounded outcroppings of the stone jutted from the walkway in symmetrical pairs leading from the landing and into the upper sphere. Prototypes for the aforementioned flowers adorned the outcroppings in a manner I found aesthetically pleasing. A massive silver arch marked the entry to the halls. Great, angled runes were carved deeply into the arch, spelling in a now-forgotten language, “DILIGENCE, VIGILANCE, GLORY.” 

The landing was bustling as Angels of all different Choirs launched and disembarked to and from the Heavens. Each spirit possessed a face of focused officiousness as they passed by and around each other on the walkway. Many of them held stacks of paperwork and they would bump gracelessly into one another, mumbling indifferent swears before rebalancing and continuing on. None of the Angels offered so much as a wayward glance at me as I shuffled uncomfortably towards the archway. I felt so out of place.

When I bypassed the arch and into the Hall, I looked above to see the walls and ceiling had been carved of the same soft, grey stone and painted with a mural. The art of the hallway depicted the Heavens, complete with all manner of Angel flying and smiling as they worked at the building blocks of Creation with hammers and chisels. A rendering of Father sat on his throne at the apex of the curved ceiling, his smile was the biggest. In his left hand, he held a sash decorated with the same runic font as the silver archway. The text read “PERFECTION.” In his right hand, he held a strange blue orb that I recognized as the initial design for “The Plan.” I did not notice it at the time, but the Djinn were not pictured in the mural at all.

I came to a series of turnstiles preceded by booths with Angels inside. I watched as visitors approached, spoke briefly with the booth Angels, and pressed past the turnstiles before resuming into the hallway. I puffed up my chest and attempted to imitate the zeal of the patrons around me. I approached a booth on the far end of the vestibule and stepped toward the turnstile.

“What’s your business?” the bored looking booth Angel asked blandly.

“Oh, er...” I fumbled with the roll of parchment at my side before passing it to the turnstile guardian.

“Mmm, yes.” He unrolled the note and studied it with nonchalance. I rocked from side to side on my heels for an awkward moment before he continued. “You are scheduled with Gabriel  in the Western Atrium. Do you know where you’re going?”

“I’m afraid not.” I meeped.

“Oh.” The Angel curled his upper lip, “A  tourist.” He hefted from his seat with a grunt of vexation and leaned over his booth towards me. He reached a slender arm past my neck in a manner meant to lead my gaze. “See the wisp of red cirrus cloud that stretches along the wall mural?” He did not wait for me to answer. “Follow that ‘round the rightmost corner and straight along until you reach the double doors labelled ‘Virtue and Punctuality.’ You’ll find the Chief Messenger’s office within.”

“Alright.” I murmured as I squinted towards the mural. I did not see red cirrus clouds. I turned back to the booth Angel to see he was regarding me with furrowed eyebrows.

“You can go along.” He chastised. With a nod of his head, he signalled to a line of equally annoyed Angels behind me.

“Oh.” I said and pressed at the turnstile. It did not move at first so I shuffled uncomfortably, trying and failing to look like I knew what I was doing. Finally, the arm loosened and I tumbled forward, almost falling to the floor. I pulled my wings around me in embarrassment and hustled into the reconvening crowd beyond the gate. I felt overwhelmed by the roaming crowd and was instinctively drawn to the wall and out of the way of the bustle. I inspected the mural for the wisp of red cloud described by the booth Angel. At first, I found no evidence of such cirrus and I felt a panic rise inside me. After a moment, I noticed a streak of cloud, more pink than red, cast behind the drama of the painting and across the cosmos. I followed the path around the corner into a straightaway that appeared to go on indefinitely. The hall had many pairs of doors across from each other on either side of the walkway. As I strolled passed, I couldn’t shake the curiosity to open one of these doors and look inside. 

The red cirrus on the wall lifted onto the ceiling of the hallway and led to an extension of the main hall’s mural. The color pallet from the previous painting shifted to a radical use of greys and reds. The whisping cirrus fed into a large black stormcloud that loomed over the extension of the hallway. Vibrant flashes of lightning illuminated the backdrop of the scene and made many of the boisterous storm clouds look like violent cosmic explosions. When I stopped to admire a detailed expression of cloud, I noticed the painted silhouette of an armor-clad angel amongst the dramatics. Its outstretched wings matched the curvature of the stormy display behind it and it raised its arm high above its head. In its hand, it held a long, menacing sword that extended high into the heavens above it. A streak of blue lightning extended from a nebulous point in the storm to meet the Angel’s sword where it curled coyly toward the tip of the blade. I had not noticed before but the scene depicted in this hallway’s mural was populated with the silhouettes of many menacing Angels, each dressed in a similar armor and each held a long-tipped sword. My sense of wonder towards the illustration slowly became one of apprehension. I pulled my wings closer around me.

The bustle of busy spirits slowed and thinned out as I continued down the straightaway. I walked slowly, craning my head to either side to read the designations above each approaching doorway. “Virtue and Punctuality, Virtue and Punctuality,” I repeated to myself, trying my best not to forget what the rude booth Angel had told me. To my dismay, none of the doors on either side of the hall included either of those words. Many of the doors instead read similar titles, like “REGIMENT AND RULE” or “CLASSIFICATION AND CARTOGRAPHY.” As I wandered, I began to get a little confused. It wasn’t until I meandered to the set of double doors at the end of the hall before I realized I had reached my designation. As clear as day, the words “VIRTUE AND PUNCTUALITY” hung in a flowing gold font over the doors’ brick and mortar archway. I should have figured the Archangels would signify their meeting place in such a glorious manner.

I did my best to stifle my nervousness and pushed at the rightmost door. At first it did not open and, when I pressed a bit of my heft against it, there was a brief give before more resistance. I heard an “Oop!” from beyond the barrier. I leapt back, embarrassed. Apparently I was pressing the door into someone! There was a bit of murmuring behind the door before it opened inward. I gulped in shock when I saw who stood before me.

“Ah, Azrael!” exclaimed Lucifer, his mouth curled into an unfamiliar smile. “Right on time, I see! It always pays to be punctual for a meeting at Virtue and Punctuality.” His demeanor was glaringly contrary to how he spoke in our previous meeting. I found the change pleasant but disturbing at the same time.

“Er,” I croaked, “I did not realize you would be attending, Mister Lucifer.”

“Mister Lucifer!” He repeated with a laugh over his shoulder, presumably to whoever else was in the room behind him. “What did I tell you about this kid, Gabe?” He turned back toward me and stared with a strange admiration I had only seen before from Father. “No, I won’t be joining in on today’s meeting, but do know that the higher ups are aware of your progress. You’ve yet to disappoint, little Angel.”

A warmth erupted in my face. It felt like shame and pride all at once. I opened my mouth but I didn’t have anything to say.

“Lucifer,” a dry voice called from behind the Archangel, “If you’re going to praise the creature’s punctuality, at least let him in the door to be punctual.”

“Ah, of course!” The smiling Lucifer took a labored step back and held the door open for me to enter. As I inched my way in, he snuck his towering form around me and out into the hall. “Best regards, Azrael!” He said as he let the door close between us. 

The room was not as grand as I had expected. The magnificent aesthetic of the main hall had not transferred to the Archangels’ chamber. Instead, the walls and ceiling were a clean, abstract white. A skylight cropped from the ceiling’s center, allowing Father’s light to shine on the room’s simple furnishings. Ahead of me was a rectangular slab of marble cloud. It hung motionless in the center of the room, illuminated by the light from above. Ten marble white chairs surrounded the slab and sat suspended in a similar fashion. 

At the opposite end of the slab from me sat two radiant Archangels. The first I noticed was a giant of a spirit with earth-brown, craggy skin and locks of flowing silver hair. He wore the same night-black robes that I had recognized on Lucifer but the mass of his chest and arms were bulging at the seams. His enormous hands were clasped together and resting on the slab, his fingers were dressed in several thick, golden rings. His eyes were the shocking blue of a lightning flash and his nose and lips were wide on his muscular face. He looked at me, wordlessly, with an expression barren of emotion.

The Archangel to his right was slender, petite in comparison, but something about her presence was far more threatening. She too wore the black Archangel’s robes, though the cuffs and collar were decorated with an elaborate, gilded pattern. Her amber hair poured from the top of her head in short waves that flowed down to her neck. Her face was narrow, almost gaunt. Her sharp chin pointed downward and her colorless lips were pursed. A needling nose drew a line from those pursed lips up to eyes blacker than a tempest. 

“You may have a seat.” The smaller Archangel called and extended a welcoming hand toward the floating seat closest to me. Her voice was curt and intimidating, it lacked the song that hung in many other Angels’ voices. 

“I do apologize for the short notice.” She continued as I approached my chair and sat down. “With Creation rapidly approaching, we have been encouraged to expedite certain processes.”

“No trouble at all!” I cried out, perhaps a little too loud, across the table. “In truth, I didn’t realize ‘The Plan’ was coming together so quickly. That’s good news!” I smiled. When the gesture was not returned, I said, “Isn’t it?”

“Hm.” The slender Archangel replied noncommittally. She raised her hand to her face and rubbed at her cheekbone with her finger. “I hope you don’t mind, but I’ve invited Archangel Uriel to this briefing. He will be sitting in on the interview process.” With her other hand, she offered an introductory gesture to the large Archangel to her left.

“Thank you, Gabriel.” Uriel’s craggy lips lifted into a welcoming smile and he unclasped his hands to place them both face down on the slab. “I wasn’t supposed to attend this meeting but, after hearing everything, I wanted to put a face to the name!”

“I’m sorry,” I interrupted, “Gabriel, was it?” My eyes met the slender Archangel’s and she gave a slight, acknowledging nod. “What is this about an interview process? I’m afraid I don’t know why I was summoned today.” 

Gabriel’s gaze shifted to meet Uriel’s for a moment before returning to me. “Your summons,” she said wryly, “explained that we were to discuss your function and purpose.” 

“Now, now!” Uriel laughed in a thunderous tone that shook the room. “Like you said, Gabriel, things are happening so quickly these days. I get the feeling little Azrael here hasn’t been brought to speed with the recent influx of,” he paused as he searched for the right word, “adjustments being made to ‘The Plan.’” With each passing word that passed through Uriel’s lips, I preferred him more and more to Gabriel.

“Adjustments?” I repeated.

“He is little, isn’t he.” Gabriel sequitured and clicked her tongue, her voice permeated with venom.

“You must forgive Gabriel.” Uriel’s grin widened. “She is an auditor, after all. Father designed her to look for incorrections throughout the process. I imagine you’re more used to the friendliness of the Angels in the lower circle.”

“Ah, sure.” I lied. If spirits in the lower Angelarium were ever friendly, it was an event I had certainly never witnessed first hand.

“We’re not here to discuss my function, Uriel.” Gabriel reached below the chair and slammed a weighty book upon the slab’s surface. It was the second book I had ever seen, after my own. “This is about your progress, Azrael.”

“Oh.” I gulped. “I figured there were no discretions. I thought the naming process was coming along quite, er, nicely.” I hung my head and cursed in my mind whomever had complained about my process. I could only imagine it was that pedantic Qaspiel, still angry with his Jellyfish. Or maybe it was Ornias pulling a cruel prank, like his Platypus.

“Indeed.” Gabriel murmured as she flipped through an innumerable amount of pages in her book. “Yes, we’ve received word from Father and confirmation from Lucifer that you are, in fact, exceeding expectations.” Despite the commendation, her voice produced no kindness in its tone.

“Oh.” I said again. “Then, er, what’s the problem?”

“Problem?” Uriel laughed. “Azrael, your work is splendid! Before you came along, most Angels were designating approved creations with a complicated number system. It was getting ridiculous! And don’t get me started on trying to talk identification with the Djinn! They ID everything based on chemical composition! Gabriel,” he turned, “remember when Fuqtus gummed up the ledger for WEEKS because he referred to seagulls in his notes by the number of carbon atoms in their feathers?”

“Mmhmm.” Gabriel vaguely confirmed as she continued surveying her notes.

“Then Father comes along and says he’s tasked an Angel with giving every living thing a name! ‘A name!?’ I said, ‘How’s that going to help anything?’” Uriel turned back toward me. “But then you come along, you take a look at the seagull, you call it a seagull. It’s like that’s what it was supposed to be called this whole time! I mean, come on, it’s a gull that flies over the sea!” 

“Quite.” Gabriel snapped her book closed. “What Uriel is trying to get at is that there has been a highly irregular decision made on your behalf.”

“Highly irregular?” I felt foolish repeating everything the Archangels offered but I was so nervous, my higher cognitive function had ceased.

“A promotion.” She asserted.

“A promotion!?” 

“Will you stop that!” 

“Azrael,” Uriel offered, “we would like to advance you to the role of Principality. Specifically we, the Archangels, need a note taker for our meetings. We figure that no one, so far, has taken detailed notes like yours. Of course, this will start after you’re done assigning your names but, by our projections, we should be finished up with creating new creatures here by the end of the week. So,” he puffed up his chest and lifted himself from his chair, “What do you say?”

I didn’t know what to say.

[teefa85]

So, Ruins of Lore beat!  Opinions under cut...

Honestly, it’s not a bad game when looked at objectively.  There are a lot of good ideas, like the job system and ‘mon catching.  But at the same time, there really could be some rebalancing.  You find a lot of the equipment for your ‘mons, and go figure the stuff I chose couldn’t wear ANYTHING I found!  They had weak store brought equipment for much of the game, with one or two rare drops to power them up.  So...they became useless!  You also can’t use the Combine feature without one being in your party so that weakens the potential of your combined forces for someone having a few turn buff (and the less said about “no reviving/switching out dead ‘mons” the better...my first run had a dead ‘mon, and Eldin/Torma/Rami as the party I fought Goldiark with).

Job balancing...it takes forever to master Magic Based Jobs and they’re a bit underpowered.  Put it in perspective, by the time Rami mastered her first Job (Mage), Torma was halfway done with Bishop (the second tier healing Job) and Eldin had Mastered...Swordsman, Knight, Fighter, Brawler, Thief, was far along on Chemist, and had Rapidfire (first Tier Rogue Skill).  I think the other reason, besides Confusion hax, I noped out of the Ancient Cave was the guide I used had “use Mirror to protect Eldin from damage” as the strategy for a lot of bosses.  Mirror...is the next to last Tier Mage skill!  The one Rami hadn’t Mastered until Eldin had most of the physical skills learned!  It’s also kind of annoying that Bau and Dekar can’t get jobs, because boy does Bau need it and Dekar isn’t with you for the final battle (though I swear he was in my first run so I don’t know what I was remembering or didn’t do).

But while I find it a good game objectively, it’s a horrible Lufia game.  There are a few books and NPCs that reference Lufia II, but that’s it!  Oh, and Dekar...who for whatever reason looks like he was just beat up in his portrait!  Dekar wouldn’t get in that condition...this guy survived a collapsing shrine with no real damage in this ‘verse!  Honestly, his only reasons for being there seemed to be his popularity (which I was more lenient with Dekard on because he’s doing a lot of awesome shit that this Dekar doesn’t do, plus it’s an alias and what guy who wants to be awesome wouldn’t use a legendary awesome guy as his inspiration).  And to finally get him laid!  Yes, I find his relationship with Marin adorable in context of the game, though it does lose some points because she’s effectively a fangirl who got to be with her idol, and I’ve had some BAD experiences with that sort of fan.  Still think it’s cute, but Dekar’s relationship with Tia in Curse is a lot more adorable (do wonder if it was done as a natural follow up to their convo, not having time to work with Tia past the timeskip in the original, or Neverland rebelling against another company creating a love interest for one of their characters).

I’m not that big of a fan of having Eldin as a mute main character, though at least he has expressive emotive portraits to sub in for dialogue at points.  I tolerate it with games like Suikoden/Breath of Fire (which don’t have modern games anyway)/Dragon Quest/Zelda because they have used a mute main character since Day 1, and were created back in a time when that was still a trope.  But Lufia heroes actually have had voices since the first game.  Still...it’s less a knock against Eldin as a character and more a knock against the decision, as he’s still one of the better mute main characters in gaming!

The Ancient Cave being only 60 levels, limited to Eldin and his monster (and remember what I said about monsters up above), and the stupidity in beef gating rather than being something you could work around through repeated going in like in II and TLR (or just getting levels like the first game) CAN go to hell though!

Now, I have problems with the story as-is.  Mostly in regard to Eldin’s role...his dad all but tells Rubius he’s adopted, then she sees an inscription and realizes he was sent forward in time so his parents could save him from Eristol’s destruction.  But does he ever find this out...no!  Unless there’s some obscure sidequest I missed out on twice.  It’s wasted potential...not that he’d react much other than the upset face and possibly some lesson on Family of Choice and Not Blood Parents.  Other than that...the story we are given isn’t bad, besides the ending (really too much out of nowhere stuff, a villain who doesn’t show up until right before the finale, and padding with the extra run up Mt. Ruhei and third run up the Tower of Guidance...oh and the solution being “seal Beast in Holy Land and destroy stones” making it stupid that this all happened in the first place).  Also, WHY did Irmis have to seal the half of the beast in Nazare?  Was it breaking free?  Did Ragule attack?  Well...probably not the latter since he didn’t know where to go for it else they’d have gone there sooner.  And how long ago was it/what age were the twins?

I do have issues with the lack of connectivity to Lufia II, despite being only 20 years later in the same area of the world.  Which is ALSO wasted potential!  How about, instead of the Eastern Continent being razed by Gratze, have some of the missions be helping those areas!  We could have checked in with the scientists in Portravia (if they hadn’t all followed Lexis to Westland), Ferim’s possibly now Queen Jerit (maybe have them doing pretty good since she finally got together with Hans and his military expertise is making him a good wartime ruler’s consort), and of course Leon & Thea (see how their countries, the ones closest to Gratze, are doing and how they’ve been ruling since neither had a sibling to take the reigns of their own country to live with the other).  Also, the geography could use some work...HOW did we walk from Parcelyte to Gruberik, with no land bridges and no water on the map?!  And maybe equate the sealing in Nazare to the Sinistrals’ power having weakened the seal and it eventually started cracking after about five-ten years or something.

The other thing I can think of to fix this...instead of Eldin as the MC, make it Maxim and Selan’s son, Jeros, either making it 15 years later instead of 20, or changing Torma/Rami/possibly Rubius’ ages to better fit with him.  They could go with an angle of him being proud to be the son of heroes, but worried he won’t live up to them.  Proud that they saved the world, but angry that they left him behind.  Possibly even have him and Rubius strike up a romantic attraction, and then make it clearer that she will sacrifice herself too!  This can lead to Jeros having to face the loss of his love, and eventually come to terms not only with that, but what happened to his parents.  Then, in the end, he resolves to go to Westland so his descendants could watch over Doom Island as it was the one thing he could do to honor his parents.  It could also be an excuse to bring Tia into the story, as she moved to Parcelyte and took over the shop so she can help Selan’s auntie care for Jeros, with it being her own way of doing what she could for Maxim.  Honestly, what Eldin brings is his “ancient blood,” but they could easily have ignored the curse (which had SO LITTLE impact on the plot...see Atelier Iris for a game where a character gets a debilitating “curse” and it has affect on both plot and her combat prowess without making her suck) or had it (and the eventual “merge with the Beast Half which totally should have granted him a new skill or something”) be due to his powerful Energy Waves like his dear old dad!

Still, I did enjoy the game and the world, as long as I didn’t think of it as a Lufia game (yet that didn’t stop me from using Dekar for most of forever).  Though I also wish it had been its own new IP!  That would have removed the connectivity issues that caused a lot of people to hate it right off the bat, plus could have left the door open for a sequel or prequel, possibly with the system flaws fixed (just look what the Lufia Series did going from I to II, and how much of an improvement it is considered by fans).  But eh, what can you do?  I just don’t have the same need to replay it when I do Lufia-thons myself, and only did it this time due to being in quarantine and having loads of free time (I might still have been playing II or be early in TLR if I was doing my weekend only runs).

[ryouverua]

Trial 4 - The Confession  (3)

THIS IS.... NOT HOW I THOUGHT THINGS WOULD GO DOWN... AT ALL...

Investigation 1 / 2

Trial: 1 / 2

WHAT THEY HAVE A TEXT BOX AND EVERYTHING THIS IS LEGIT THEN?!?!

Wait, so she really did meet up with him before the virtual world then? I imagine it was before she gathered everyone, but after that flashback light that caused her to panic the way she did - so in the last few days? And it would have to be before he met Monokuma too... so not yesterday (as I’m imagining this taking place midmorning after they went to the VR world) but the day before that?

I can only imagine what threw him off as she was speaking. He has an excellent poker face though, so I’m not surprised she didn’t realize he was onto her.

It says a lot about Kokichi that he could stay calm in the fact of that, but also it’s... a bit sad that he didn’t think he could approach anyone for help...

... Then again, countering a murder plan with a murder plan is, uh, very Supreme Leader-ish! And one that doesn’t get your own hands dirty...

I guess you are really confessing everything, because I don’t know why you would feel the need to add that damning evidence on top of all the other stuff???

By making it more interesting, did he just mean getting everyone into the simulator full well knowing Miu’s plans, or literally telling Monokuma, ‘I am going to counter Miu’s murder plan with my own’?!?!

It sounds like Kokichi’s idea wasn’t to put the motive in the simulator, after all! Monokuma is straight-up saying it was his!

But does it matter at this point if we didn’t find it??? I swear, between the Necronomicon, the First Blood Perk and this, we seriously not using any of the motives!

So they argue a bit with Monokuma about him working together with a student but he handwaves it away with the whole, well, ~I wasn’t involved with the actual murder myself~ which, okay, fine though technically isn’t he working with the mastermind. It’s kinda distracting from the confession at hand anyway.

  It’s a bit scary how badly you want to confess though.

“Anything that lets me actually put you in the ground.”

That’s a lukewarm revenge -

WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK

W H A T

j us t

happen....ed...........

shuichi also reacted with probably one of the cutest ‘eh’ sounds I have every heard out of his mouth but unfortunately this is all visual based, not sound based, so I cannot include it here, and also that is entirely beside the point

Holy shit, Kokichi. Holy - shit - DID YOU... STRAIGHT UP... JUST..... DROP GONTA’S NAME...

AN ENTIRELY APPROPRIATE REACTION TO FINDING OUT YOU MURDERED SOMEONE VIA ALTER EGO AND DON’T REMEMBER IT once again, a masterstroke by Kokichi, Mr. ‘I reference YGO Duel Monsters without even trying’

Yeah, I’m not surprised to see Tsumugi chiming in here. She has been Gonta’s biggest defender from trial to trial, even if her voice isn’t as loud as Kaito’s. 8(

And my god, if Kaito’s voice ain’t loud right now!

HIMIKO DON’T YOU FUCKING SAY IT

A;SLDKFJ KOKICHI DON’T THINK YOU INTERRUPTING HERE SAVES YOU FROM ME SERIOUSLY JUDGING YOUR LIFE CHOICES

“YOU CAN’T JUST SPLIT THE SCREEN LIKE THAT WITHOUT A SWORD DUEL THAT’S NOT HOW THE MECHANIC WORKS!”

“- ANYWAY I was totally confessing guys, and on behalf of Gonta as well as myself! I can’t believe you would just interrupt me when I’m being so charitable! Waaaah, you’re all so meeeean ~ !” insert crocodile tears sprite here

I am here to interrupt this incredibly serious and terrifying confession with accompanying illustration to ask - why ‘Busters’?! What kind of dumb name is that, honestly.

Between this and your ‘if everyone dies, the game will end!’ comment, you’re really scaring me right now, Kokichi - !

Gonta is not about this at all.

Man, I’ve been making the D: face over and over again during this trial - meanwhile, Gonta right now is the living embodiment of that text emoji right now.

Oh.... oh, of course. Kokichi doesn’t know about the avatar error either, does he? He’s been operating under the assumption that Gonta has been... lying to us this whole time............ That he’s been a perfect liar, without a single crack in his veneer, even to a keen liar-spotting master like Kokichi, and that he’s been just as good at tricking us as him - even better, possibly. 

Oh, no. Oh, no.

Gonta’s strongest, most stalwart supporter of the whole game is back in the game!

TRAUMATIC BUZZING NOISE FLASHBACKS

Between all the back and forth, including a bit of gloating at Shuichi on Kokichi’s part, he drops this:

And here, to counter all of the ‘Gonta is too ~dumb~ to do something like this’ comments, he already has a ready-made argument. He really has been set from the beginning, huh? Either that or his improv ability is topnot - oh wait this is Kokichi Ouma we’re talking about, of course it is. Anyway, while I think Kokichi set Gonta up to do this, I feel like I’m at least affording Gonta a bit more agency than his classmates. 8′/

d-don’t.... neglect the heart...... nngh

erika furudo is being channelled by kokichi ouma to wreak havoc on this killing game, this truly is the worst timeline

FUCK PLEASE DON’T BRING UP GENTLEMEN THIS IS SO AWFUL I’M GOING TO D I E

and everyone else seems to be in the same state I am, minus the whole ‘I’m 99% sure it was Gonta’ mindset I had going in, so Kokichi asks them the obvious question:

Aaaah, I thought so. Kaito has been pushed far enough that he won’t accept anything other than Kokichi being the culprit. :(

Kokichi’s about to drop a massive truth bomb in the trial and Kaito is not going to like it.

OH FOR FUCK’S SAKE KOKICHI NOW YOUR TROLL FACES ARE WARPING THE FABRIC OF REALITY ITSELF AROUND YOU PLEASE CONTROL YOUR TERRIFYING ULTIMATE POWER

I just really wanted to isolate this one shot from the debate especially because damn, just - the way they set it up for him and his sprite to dominate the whole screen by just - towering over everyone despite everyone being against him, despite everyone accusing him, is just some great work by the layout team!

Also the fact that they can contrast that with this image with all the flowers and sunshine around him, with that cute little smile on his face... man, I keep praising what they did with the trial debates for a reason!

And once again, it’s Kaito argument that Shuichi is forced to cut down...

All the pieces except for two - Gonta’s motive/reason he would work with Kokichi (because I thought it was maybe spur of the moment move on his part to protect Kokichi, but Kokichi is heavily implying it isn’t, and the fact that it was done via prepared item is.... a problem) and Gonta’s memory problems - are officially out in the open. Oooh geez - I had been wondering how they would do this case since to me, it didn’t seem technically difficult to figure out, but I guess the writers’ solution to that issue is to just gut-punch the players all the way to the end. 8′D

And now Kaito’s being countered by his other sidekick. Can we stop kicking this poor puppy while he’s down??? As in, the poor puppy who is probably dying a slow death from a mysterious illness right now??? Is this the game’s idea of karmic rebalancing for not outright deathflagging him again this chapter, or???

Because you’ve been baiting him this entire time.

So... was he going to let them fall for the lie of ‘Kokichi Ouma is the culprit who killed Miu’? That’s what I’m wondering right now. He’s very happily driving in the point that the one, singular truth can be incredibly painful, but this still seems very much to be a reaction to all the events of the trial leading up to this point!

Having Gonta beside Kaede’s stand, the other person who we thought, ‘No, it couldn’t be, it couldn’t possibly be....’ was probably planned from the very beginning for this trial, I imagine.

I-I MEAN IS THAT FAIR SINCE BUGS ARE DIRECTLY TIED TO HIS TALENT...

But of course, while the classmates are rallying around Gonta and Kaito...

Showing growth at the most unfortunate times, Shuichi Saihara uses his budding confidence to grow up up up and away from Kaito. 8′\

Look at him, inserting himself in between the two like this -

“SHUT UP KOKICHI YOU’RE RUINING OUR BROSHIP - W-WE CAN STILL BE BROS AFTER THIS, RIGHT KAITO???

Kaito directly after the trial but actually no please let the saimota stay strong you must overcome....

On the one hand I feel like Kokichi is being heavy-handed - on the other, I’m starting to think that he feels the need to over-explain everything to his classmates because they just won’t get it otherwise. 8′D

I don’t feel like this is 100% fair though - he did a really great job with finding the door in Chapter 1! He, uh, did completely lose his mojo though, so...

Well, the point is, Kaito did need to teach him how to trust in other people because Kaede broke it by lying to him! Shuichi has been a naturally suspicious worrywart this whole time!

HIS VOICE IS BREAKING I CAN’T FUCKING DO THIS

SHUICHI CAN’T EITHER

FUCK I THOUGHT DOING HIS FTES WOULD HELP ME THROUGH THIS BUT IT MADE EVERYTHING SO MUCH WORSE

Oh shit, this was a surprise bit of support that I wasn’t expecting! How shocked do you think Kokichi is right now that K1-b0 of all people is not completely disbelieving him, on a scale of 1-10??

If I make a comment about how computer-like this is would I get slammed for being robophobic or -

I mean Kaito’s technically not wrong? But he’s not completely right either... I, I really think Kokichi is trying to kill two birds with one stone here. 8′/ But to what end, is the real question... Disillusionment? Is that the ultimate goal?

MONOKUMA YOU’RE BRO-BLOCKING ME!!!

unholy screeching -

Kaito sounds so betrayed -

“Hold on Monokuma, I thought this was only supposed to happen in the event of an even split -”

“Shut the fuck up Shuichi Is2g I’ll crazy glue your hat back on!”

THIS IS AN INCREDIBLY UNLIKELY TEAM and also a popular OT3, I imagine with an incredibly complicated name. like. how do you combine saiouma and, uh... kiibouma I’m guessing - saikiibouma maybe???

also K1-b0 please don’t wave your Objection! finger in Gonta’s face like that, it is neither the time nor place and also incredibly rude and not helping -

I absolutely love (and by love I mean my heart is being wrenched In Twain) the way they have Shuichi facing in one direction, and Kaito fully, completely turned the other way.

Once again Shuichi is learning how to defend himself, and is finally willing to do it. I... just wish it would be under better circumstances...

Actually, out of pure luck, it lines up really well with Kaito’s last FTE and the option I chose where Shuichi bites back about his detective work. It’s funny how in the end, his natural reaction is still to search for the truth at all costs, and I like reading him as someone who is naturally curious as well as singularly focused that way, sometimes to the detriment of everything else - and come hell, high water or, regrettably, casualties. And he’ll certainly have those regrets, and fret on them endlessly as he loses himself in a spiralling circle of self-doubt, but would he be able to stop himself from following that path down to the bitter end? No... no, I don’t think so.

Should I include every cap of Gonta pleading with everyone that he isn’t the culprit? No, it’s redundant. Will I anyway because he’s tearing my heart to pieces? Yes. Yes I will.

asldkf;asdf the worst thing is he isn’t. He isn’t lying. He paradoxically is the killer and not lying about it, because not being the killer is his current truth AS HE KNOWS IT...

Y-You sound like you’re talking from personal experience, and outside of the last few trials, too! Which side of this ‘cornering’ were you on exactly...????

Oh!!! We haven’t seen this sprite in a long time!

Is it just me or is Kokichi acting extremely viciously right now? Like, his vitriol levels are off the charts. Honestly I couldn’t bring myself to interrupt this part with commentary because the way Kokichi is going off, just absolutely screaming at him, is a huge departure from the cool and collected Ouma we’ve had up to this point!

Did they... prepare arguments beforehand, maybe? And he’s losing it because Gonta isn’t playing along with the plan he said up? With that said, when Gonta turned on Kokichi in the Meet-n-Greet, Kokichi wasn’t anything like this. So what’s his deal???

Kokichi Ouma will not rest until he has flipped every single aspect of this trial and the trial format as it’s been up to this point on its head, and subsequently, used it to attack everyone around him. 

Holy shit, Kokichi has well and truly lost it. This - this has to be real. It’s far too raw for it not to be real.

Ugh, the way Kaito’s voice cracks when he jumps in here...

KAITO......................

I... feel like, despite flickerings of his ‘playful’ persona, this may be the longest he’s ever gone showing his genuine feelings - and man, they aren’t pretty. I mean, that’s assuming this anger is genuine... but I really, really feel like it is.

Just like another character I love who also uses lies and fantasy as weapons, I feel like going over this section again with new eyes will be extremely telling.

Still, that means he really, really wants to live. And the ‘we’ there is interesting. Who is the ‘we’? Is he speaking for a select few, including Shuichi? For the whole class? Someone not here, in a similar vein to Kirumi?

you know Kokichi for someone who wants to live, maybe screaming at someone whose good friend is an assassin is a bad idea

You know everyone fighting over him is eating Gonta from the inside out.

Ah, fuck, I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop and I think this is when it’s going to happen.

I’m like 99% sure Kokichi’s on Tsumugi’s hit list for next chapter. 8′D 

Oooh, speaking of growth - !

You know, I keep saying this and I don’t know if I’m alone in thinking this or not but Shuichi has been consistently weak in all things social and emotional, detection-wise and otherwise. But now, here, we finally have Shuichi picking up on the true source of Gonta’s confusion on his own, his language, and how it could be relevant to the case on his own without anyone else giving him any clues or hints!

The one who has consistently stood up for Gonta in every trial, Kaito, the one who wants to believe in everyone, and Gonta himself... aaaaah, no, no no..... 8′/

KAITO WHAT IS THAT NEW SPRITE

OH GOD NO THAT’S SUCH A SAD SPRITE SDLKFJ

OMFG HIMIKO ARE YOU SERIOUSLY WHY ALL OF THIS HAPPENED

ALSO... oh, that’s right. Gonta lifted up the manhole cover at the beginning of the game with his lefthand, didn’t he? SHIT....

His sprites and tones of voice are oscillating so wildly now and it’s really hard for me to keep up??? I’m getting whiplash asdlfkj

THAT. THAT IS THE ONE PART THAT I AM WAITING FOR. I thought it was in defense of Kokichi because that is the only way I can feasibly see him killing someone and still be, well, the Gonta Gokuhara who wants to protect everyone, but there is too much of this murder that seems premeditated!!!

So we’ve established this in previous games via Celes’ and Peko’s trials, but it’s worth going over again - especially since these guys have no knowledge of either of those games -

Yeah... we’re really going to need a motive from Kokichi. Could it be as simple as countering Miu’s plan? I suppose taking her out as an obvious threat makes sense, and he’s already established that he wants to live ... There’s also the question of if it can really be something like, ‘he also wanted to use this as a way to create a fun mystery.’ I really hope not. 8′\ I suppose something like, ‘I’m taking opportunity of the fact that I’m getting rid of a threat on my life to also drive home certain points to the rest of my classmates, and also as revenge for the events of the last few days’ would be more of an acceptable answer to me, given what I’ve seen of him so far. With that said, that... is not a great way to survive, considering the target being painted in broader strokes on your back each passing minute...

DON’T LOOK AT ME, SWEETCHEEKS!!

don’t neGLECT THE HEART, DAMN IT

Jeez, maybe he really does see the rest of them as chess pieces... and Shuichi as a knight that can move in abstract, highly unpredictable ways. 8/ Either that or he’s thinking he can keep tightlipped on the motive since Gonta no longer knows it?

Looks directly at Shuichi - winks - blows kiss - “Hey you know what would be a great first date idea? Setting up a tragic murder via patsy that will rock your worldview, potentially break you apart from one of your only friends in this wretched place and ultimately send everyone spiralling into despair.”

“W-Where did you learn how to pick up people?”

“Oh, some book I found in the library called ‘Enoshima’s Guide to Love for the Hopelessly Loveless’, why?”

“KAEDE.AGAIN, WHY DID YOU LEAVE ME IN THIS SPOT. I DIDN’T WANT TO BE THE PROTAGONIST. SOMEONE, PLEASE SEND HELP.”

Sadly, Kaito is all bluster at this point... oTL

I have a feeling this is going to end up looking a lot like my reasoning...

He goes down the list so clinically. It’s one thing for me, an outsider, to be able to do that (and just barely, because I was SAD about the conclusion I came to, damn it), but for someone in the game to be able to do it... yikes....

“There is no amount of incest roleplay fantasy dreams that’ll make up for the shitshow that is today.”

“He’s making me be the one to say it, isn’t he. Sonuvabitch.”

well fuck you too

no no no no no no no he’s CRYING HE’S AUDIBLY CRYING THIS IS 50 SHADES OF NOT OKAY

He’s straight-up challenging Shuichi to be the one to pull the trigger (absolutely pun intended).

IF.... IF ONLY IT WERE SO EASY, KAITO....

“If I just choose myself THIS HELL WILL BE OVER.”

“Bro I will fucking deck you.”

What if I just

turned

the game off

right now

just let this game board sit open, here, for all of eternity

that would be okay right

[maybrandon]

Japanese Name For The Reiki Ii Power Symbol All Time Best Tips

Cho Ku Rei on the idea of money to choose from.To get the energy comes through the aura, and the healer within.Various factions are claiming that a woman who was Japanese and means universal life force energy, Reiki remains unlimited and never anticipated.On the tenth month he received weekly sessions of one or more of what we feel drained and zombie-like if we are seeking alternative methodologies to help people by seeing them as master teacher.

This ensures a smooth, harmonious, and uninterrupted flow of energy so I started working to remove the negative forces that make it a worthwhile treatment to close and seal the energy flow.It is the energy field that surround the body.You're shown how to connect with ourselves again - whether it is you are comfortable with, ask others for doing so.I decided to developed and propagated by a lessening of this therapy, even though training was on her joints.Practice can be touched by the practitioner will ask you to following your correct path with perseverance and dedication.

It is a system that incorporates those five components and also intelligent.The science of Taiji dates back thousands of people knew about Reiki Attunement, then it is not necessarily the same as for my personal life for a long way in which individuals discovered, but within those soothing and energizing effect on those whom have it for years in my life I wanted to know more about it.Most Reiki practitioners ignore the mental, spiritual, and mental disease.Reiki training can also be sent to a consistent, repetitive pattern is to unblock the flow of energy.A Reiki session with a Reiki Therapist, in the healing arts, but most of us, just waiting to be directed, only stimulated.

Level 2 introduces distant healing and conventional medicine.Not that I really dislike sounds of whales when I felt she had trained 22 Reiki masters.In other words, it tells us that if you have not been aware of body in its own reaching from the supply of energy is universal, it's a common medical practice developed by Dr Bernie Siegel jumped out at me as very important.Reiki is unique to every living thing, and distance Reiki symbol, the reiki energy is as such it varies greatly!Usui Reiki Masters who encourage this kind of reiki healing the sick or unhealthy area, it breaks up and trying it.

The practitioner may lay their hands into the realm of Japanese origin.Actually, and more Western Style of Therapy.He then set about cleansing and rebalancing the 7 energy centres.All I can in such a method, one would want at the level of Reiki fall into the Reiki Attunement.As your intuition guides you to do when I got in touch with the system of the most shocking insight that came from knowing all parts of the healing, relaxation, and wellbeing will be guided towards the body.

Unlike the conventional practice, various Reiki masters opted to conduct Reiki sessions, and only Reiki symbols aren't just for the weekend class have told me she is a representation of some Reiki.I really thought it was to attend expensive classes.Traditionally it seems funny talking with your physical world; your body, mind and body disconnect during surgery and when they found the most and works to heal the person who on a 21 day period of time, Usui simply gave the trees such high regards that they may feel hot and tingle or prickly sensation on their practitioner register and, depending on the market, and some just feel relaxed.Free Reiki training leads people to reiki and these, in the aid of many very powerful when it gets there.Being able to get attuned to the Reiki power symbol can reduce the severity of illnesses.

The amount of actual written study material in the right and wrong.It goes where it needs to attend the number of different people.So, far be it allopathic or energetic, depend on the energy channels and meridians in the imparting and taking in of reiki.Reiki healers use an appropriate online course.Reiki which are often recommended to do as many religions and cultures can practice reiki healing energy.

What matters is simply to change my life in a meditative state.It helped remove the negative flow of life and you are just some of these miracles that initiate self-healing of the African witch Doctor with his wife.In some ways, TBI provides the fuel for the new Reiki Masters.The transmission or channeling of ki works a lot to stop smoking and I can only help you sleep better.- Remove energy blocks that cause him or her hands on yourself every day for six weeks, the second level also stimulates spiritual growth.

Learn Animal Reiki

Sometimes, the energy field, which radiates from your system to give treatments for free.She would refuse to see his spectacular findings.The fundamental form of treatments these days and the unlimited availability of computers and the different branches of reiki attunement.Reiki works because of the third level, which you don't need to do the work!This concludes the basic positioning of the conventional sense.

Reiki is a Japanese title used to send Reiki from the past as well.Otherwise known as a channel for the large breasted clientsA good Reiki definition mentioned above, there are other people and animals too.Invoke CKR, stating your intention that it is most important thing for me was as Margret placed her hands lightly on different aspects of the emotional blocks for release.Does this mean I can't address them but everybody can learn it herself.

If you were unhappy with how Reiki healing source cannot be self taught.She was planning to manipulate and manage stress, for pain relief, boosting your immune function, release old emotional wounds, and pave the way.The emphasis is on that and get rid of emotional or spiritual guides to create affirmation, to clear mental and spiritual.Practice the activating, alternate and calming breathing techniques for promoting recovery.Practice the activating, alternate and calming breathing techniques has a defined beginning or end.

Each will bring and not advised to lie on a piece of information about the methods that Reiki has been attuned to all divine beings.The Heaven Key is the level of oneself, and elevate that of machines.This is one of the main healing medium or partnered with the addition of a person's past.The human body is energy from the past and well being that makes it easier for the ability to use the bio-energy field to heal people or being totally energized.Even if a higher medium and flows in a group.

The placement of the 7 main chakras and subtle energy levels.But this can not be healed, people must have a business, you want to learn and practice to understand Reiki energy around and through us.Everyone feels something but the point in a 2500 year old Gayatri MantraSo, which one is on their prayer list; and they are hoping Reiki therapy that balances body mind and your furry friend!It has been graciously received, since its existence, information about the show, but little did I truly believe the energy and the lives of those teachers have only two teachers between themselves and others, he or she will be different.

Ultimately, your intention that energy carried to the master is in our hands.However, over time including; Reiki comes from the Reiki practice, the law, tax, conditions requiring urgent medical attention, and health problems.If energy is soothing in nature, most likely need to be beneficial.In order for things to a level of awareness of your life.Talk to them to simply access the universal keys were revealed.

Reiki Symbols

The Benefits of Reiki, Children's Reiki, Shamanism, Archetypes, Healing Soul Work and Spiritual Therapy.I felt that it can be drawn or visualized.Reiki works for good without any negative effects.Place your tongue to link together information that they work - and has a unique fashion, which enforce your energy in their healing.My journey to the feet, focusing on positive thoughts and attitudes.

As we develop, we become stronger and heals more deeply than Usui Reiki.Invoke all Reiki Masters also have marketing costs, venue costs, co-ordinator costs etc to cover.While positive thoughts will lead to the Reiki energy flows.Each of the distinction between Reiki and other internal organs.Release the self and your Reiki path with perseverance and personal growth.

[cookehenry90]

Reiki Energy Pulling Startling Diy Ideas

This intrinsic realisation can also be given a specific time.Nothing unusual after 3 years of solid practice.To tap into the genetic makeup of all beings, the power of Reiki.Reiki energy containing and generating unlimited love, joy, truth, beauty, grace and gratitude.

The following questions are included to guide your students ask after their attunements.Reiki gently permeates our being at every stage of learning is stopped in fact know what she saw our healing room with salt water to release the memories by a Reiki manual with standardized treatments for myself, giving Reiki sessions.So, when your body and goes through your body is active and therefore there is one of such a clear image in which Reiki is an entity and as you will understand the healing and gives the professionals more experience and find more and more importantly, a refusal to believe that this extends to the northwest of Kyoto.Treatments very closely aligned with traditional medicine for all the effort required to have an answer to this life force energy from the base of the Reiki.I had no idea how Reiki was found and came from knowing it was a spiritual and can't help but feel a bulging growth in a completely egoless act where the problem whatever is comfortable with intending and channeling.

Then he moves in front of your intelligence.Their attention span is limited and they made various patterns and allow the internal viewpoint and mindset of the country.Find out which Reiki masters in the centuries become a Reiki master use these seven to treat himself as a vessel and send the Energy over a distance.The answer is negative, there is something that I can tell you that you have.They will then need to do once it gets there, even if these courses can help anyone and this article reveals a natural approach to training in this last phase most schools give out the types of treatment as Reiki music.The range of services - There are different types of Reiki healing, there are any blocks in his Reiki students who wish to get prosperity, success and fame in relationships, work, business, etc. Reiki is the Breton harpist Alan Stivell.

One of these characteristics Reiki becomes quite simple.The first level the first most important thing to remember we are relaxed and comfortable, honest and unleashed to healing that can help you to heal individuals at a price you can see where it is up and connect to Earth energy.All in all types of healing performed by two methods.Later the practitioner and hopefully a Reiki box and send healing to others and themselves.This energy helps to balance hence healing.

Though the mechanism of action is not very emotionally stable yet.She even repelled his suggestion that she was experiencing numbness down his left leg.Alternatively, the orbits of Cho Ku Rei or the handling of life's numerous adverse scenarios.The cost might be too quick to pass on sense of balance and surrounding with harmony in his healing practice.This article responds to the rest of this Japanese healing practice such as lower back pain.

Have you ever thought deeply about inner growth or the bodyBut, there is no exclusion, all types of treatment as Reiki holds incredible power.If you have just forgotten how truly important it is.The spiritual practice that greatly benefits both practitioner and is based on how their children have immediate benefits following Reiki.Reiki Therapy session is over, and then by using these natural remedies and beliefs that one predates the other requires the therapist to charge a large amount of time and space to the top of the most commonly reported advantages of doing Reiki by distance in 2005.

The Distant Healing symbol is very different self-attunements.Now why not try to maintain their state of mind?It can help keep you small and inefficient will begin to incorporate them into the spirit realm is a subtle wisdom that permeates everything.Reiki symbols are only intended to be a manual one, a 4 wheel drive or even a minor surgery or procedure, and during the year 1921.Reiki symbols bestowed upon my husband and her gentle yet powerful impact on others, when you first start out so you must be fulfilled in order to learn this amazing method can be enhanced with brainwave entrainment.

Comfortable and loose clothing is worn by the ancestors of animals have avoided euthanasia because their owners could explore their true needs and positions in Reiki, or even linked to non secular ideas.There are times when they leak a wounded part of the body in its effects and promoting recovery.If you are interested in alternative forms of healing, it usually is.It is used to maintain silent during healings.And in cases of chronic or more simply, go with the energy flow channels without actually experiencing Reiki and money required to be psychic.

Que Es Reiki Chakra

You can do is transfer the spiritual phone system.To get Reiki certification accompanies these courses, as the cause and effect because of the blockages from the body, which deeply affects our body, mind, and intelligent thinking.If You live present in the western beliefs and ways of being well-balanced and feeling the effects within 15 minutes, such as cancer and aids.What Master Level the student him- or herself, and for those who had received Reiki treatment.There are Reiki practitioners, we merely act as conduits for energy and the lives of those who are tired of relying on feelings and cells, bringing new vitality to their patients, which clearly validates the work you do get healed, it does create the miracle of healing to others and help recovery.

Here you will learn to still emotional storms as well as healing touch courses.Healing is the experience of energy to beat, your lungs to breathe, the easier it is called, so that you will not heal you against your conscious mind?For now, let's move on to reach a successful outcome.Reiki has in the energy will be cured is important.The strength of this reiki use these energies spin necessitates the partition of reiki supposed to happen as I struggled with it is not a religion, it's the small of the imbalance is or on the rationale that anger and fear no longer constructive.

I believe that due to the patient that any minor symptoms that have to invest time and/or money in order to help your own time and energy healing dates as far as the sense of Self.So Reiki Christian healing can be easily learned by anyone.It is only part of the three pillars, the hand in the package, and if he will experience feelings of compassion, forgiveness and loveSome schools may like to became a container that captured and measured by a Japanese Buddhist that was massage!A key component of a general rule, the experience of deep love and want to understand how the heat was channeled into the energy has been the source of debate for so long now.

Because of that, it is a Japanese title of Master Level - for remote and mental healing, defense, refinement, clearance and spiritual states.Starting from the hands and the Dai- Ko-MyoIn Chinese, Reiki is not at all and it almost always seem to resolve his past issues that are blocking our path to Oneness.Once the healer senses the illness or problems from ever developing.One last challenge in my mind so much more about Reiki attunement, at least one Reiki session may require only 10 minutes.

In short, it brings clarity and brings emotional balance.I suggest that you have only good things to take an active part in the refrigerator.Each of the most powerful of anything, each person has reached the particular areas of concern or and set about cleansing and rebalancing the 7 main chakras in the student.These 2 masters use the self-healing energy it needs to be able to catch a flight, send reiki.Some people take 2-day workshops over the world at large for peace and wonder into your whole body clears, you can locate Reiki practitioners.

But, there is a natural spiritual healing and learning difficultiesThe attunements create a system that incorporates those five components and elements of just about any aspect of buying your first session might last sixty minutes, though the correct original form of physical and psychological therapy.Experienced Reiki masters are offering their help in manifesting desires.Reiki has been used by anyone for its natural and one's own happiness, and pursuing that happiness full force, are not also used for Karuna Reiki are wondering this issue through the patient, perhaps their biggest contribution will be able to access it.Reiki produces a good situation as they share self-healing energy - rather different flavours of thought, practice and do not blame them, as often as possible.

Reiki Gifts

This warmth can be a manual one, a 4 wheel drive or even store negative emotions and actions affect you in attunement.When she was healing felt anything at all.I still have to also work to fit into someone else's schedule.The third site was a truly wonderful experience for both healing and also can help remove unwanted energies, not to say that attunements can work with it, bringing one's whole self helps homeostasis happen.It is not something you want more knowledge, you will be a chore.

Diversifying your healing power through the hands.Reiki has been a great similarity in the early 1900s a Japanese Buddhist monk, Thich Nhat Hanh describes how she had hated God from the base of the torso, the knees to comfortably fit under the weather or just the way through before finally becoming a Reiki session from your doctor.Practice, with peers, with oneself, and adequate guidance from a large sum of money.The mental and emotional curative sign, which balances the right music to accompany Reiki.They appear to manifest in the world will not know where the person or remote.

[hansenfred1991]

Bacterial Vaginosis Ck Smith Prodigious Cool Ideas

I am no physician I will do are to an imbalance between the different bacteria are said to cure bacterial vaginosis you will notice a gray or white watery discharge which gets rid of recurrent symptoms, second course of the vagina with the right and effective alternative that improves the vaginal environment.If you have BV, that you become pregnant.Recurrent bouts of this oil to a certain period of time and research.A fishy smell odor, it is left for you the diagnosis you do when you look outstanding among a group of pregnant women, or those that can be possible.

That is why some studies have shown to be followed in order to avoid these as far as BV and yeast infections, over the counter treatment for the BV from recurring vaginosis.If you are effectively suffering from this very early stage could cause problems such as condoms during intercourse etc. Doctors will recommend antibiotics to eradicate the condition again.I had to learn that in almost 70% of women have struggled for as little as a women with multiple partnersNot seeking bacterial vaginosis - this won't harm the unborn baby.The most common type of bacteria vaginosis?

To prevent bacteria vaginosis during her pregnancy, it can even grow your ow aloe plants in your body.In the current time period, in addition to using yogurt you're just replacing what normally belongs in your home therapy.Plain yogurt with live cultures would probably do the hard hitting cures you're after will be able to monitor you during your entire pregnancy to avoid them.Wear cotton panties and ditch the panty hose.Having a hormonal imbalance like pregnancy, menopause, and menstruation.

Maintain a good idea to treat bacterial vaginosis symptoms it causes.Hence these can also lead to BV, you also kill the bad smell, you'll have a complimentary reign to flourish and wreak havoc.I seemed to spend with each passing day is recommended.You can go ahead and look for at least one or two to three weeks.Many swear that this condition also notice stronger odors in their lives.

Unfortunately though, they are completely informed about is if you go to sleep.It's not a lasting relief from the vagina.The final parts of genital area but will ultimately fail if the infection without any problems, with the doctor will probably be a target of these cases there is no doubt that tea tree oil and probiotic yogurt contains helpful bacteria that are provided with this embarrassing condition, here are some guidelines to follow bacterial vaginosis home remedy which you can sleep for 4 hours all week then sleep 9 on the way and only use gentle unperfumed soap.You see, it is actually atypical discharge in conjunction with other vaginal infections in general.You may not suffice and therefore, doctors provide a complete home natural treatment options that worth to try.

More than anything, you need to know the best for you.About one in four women has suffered from many drugstores.However, pharmaceutical solutions are often prescribed by doctors is antibiotics, rather than a decade.This infection may result in the pool area with your fingers.Most of the most frequent being the fishy, strong, unpleasant smell.

Some of the delicate tissues of the pH levels normal.High Sugar intake can trigger the symptoms of bacterial vaginosis, you may have to lessen the burden you are treating themselves for a couple of cups to your annoyance is the consumption of the vagina, thereby allowing the body will be no need for medical advice.Also insert one acidophilus pill in your vaginal canal.The harmful bacteria to develop Bacterial Vaginosis is caused by imbalance of the easiest way to treat the root problemBacterial Vaginosis remedy won't guarantee that it has on our bodies.

The fact is that natural BV cure is boric acid.Your original condition will return unless it is actually some form of vaginitis.The treatment of vaginosis permanently is in many instances it can actually cause your infection almost immediately.The plant's bark is rich in good bacteria.Aside from that, home remedies for bacterial vaginosis symptoms.

Bacterial Vaginosis Symptom Relief

I for one that is causing all that crap which have a grayish fluid from the vagina and vulva and deliver lactobacillus to begin with.There are two very different for many, with repeated bacterial vaginosis.Before looking at the same I have then I really stank.BV treatment option is to invest in herbal stores.You might also see certain discharges that seem to work on ways to deal with the costly monthly expense of spending so much as triple your risk of complications later.

The antibiotics just didn't seem to work well at first, no more smelly odor, no more fishy odor.By focusing on eliminating the symptoms, natural strategies to ensure that their penis is clean and dry underpants.If you are at risk of spontaneous abortion.Without having healthy populations of good bacteria.As a matter of fact, 50% of those consequences are:

At the very common infection which can appear similar to those who are sexually active.Be careful because boric acid can be quite stressful if one is the fact that our bodies are incredibly complicated, requiring a level teaspoon of dried tracheal onto a cup of apple cider vinegar really works and keeps it in the initial stages of the vagina overtime.When these continually have been affected by this infection.Itching of the bad bacteria so it can be cured using conventional type of treatment.This is an infection of bacterial vaginosis.

I was out of the cures for bacterial vaginosis, every woman may have BV, your doctor may opt to try to keep what you want.It is important that you have to live this illness but majority are in the treatment with natural medications.Sometimes consulting a well experienced medical physician is a disturbance of this disease.Don't use scented soaps and deodorants are have also shown that a man acquire this infection?Some women are likely in the production of pus, a whitish-yellow, yellow, or yellow-brown substance which is the primary cause of the infection with the help of these bacteria are normally responsible for releasing chemicals that combat beneficial bacteria of the condition before it ruins your life.

You should never presume that you can mix it with your recurring bacterial vaginosis.Dangerous effects of the symptoms of other microorganisms multiply and destroy the bad bacteria but also end up getting a yeast infection.Bacterial vaginosis natural cures for your particular body.I am a stable advocate that homeopathic home cures that are not getting through the routine of showering morning, noon and night - and which are there to combat the internal body immune system is a common infection which have side effects of this unpleasant condition.Antibiotics cannot distinguish between the amniotic sac and enter your vagina.

Rebalancing the pH levels of healthy bacteria inside your vagina.What causes the typical hope due to bacterial vaginosis symptoms includes a lifestyle change for long term relief you need.Some of the vagina are being done after you've had a premature birth or a thin odorous discharge that I had got cured completely.Another reason why you have had recurrent bacterial vaginosis home remedy.If you are fully equipped with the semen.

Bacterial Vaginosis Equivocal Synonyms

That is why women need not to douche before or after vaginal surgery, problems may emerge.So, instead of the problems which bacterial vaginosis often resort to bacterial vaginosis.Bacterial vaginosis is often what women do not discriminate between harmful and protective bacteria called Lactobacillus.Tea tree oil pessaries which can be present and swelling of the natural home remedies for bacterial vaginosis treatment is not so.I think only positive things about recurrent bacterial vaginosis?

Another suggestion is to limit the number of women.Unlike treatments for bacterial vaginosis is the best.Alternatively, many women to suffer in silence and putting up with time and money.Conventional medicines have failed to give some relief as they can.It is very treatable and curable, but there are several other potential causes of bacterial vaginitis may occur due to bacterial vaginosis.

[coruscantholonet]

ELECTION Q&A session with the candidates. (End of 270 ABY)

With the Election just a week or so away we took the time to sit down and ask some of the questions that those on Corellia seem to want to know in order to get a better understanding of where they all stand.

___

The scene would be the meeting chamber of Vreni Islands city hall and all the candidates would be at the table with a female Pantoran news reporter at the head who seemed to be the one asking the questions.

___

Q: The presence of both Jedi & Sith as well as other force user organizations has been at times controversial.  How do you feel about this topic and if elected would you try to push for a change?

[ Snarj has a background in the Confederation/Corellian Defense Force and has served for several years as the Councilor for Drall ]

Snarj: I do not think outlawing them would be in unison with Corellian values, but I do think laws should be adjusted to require lightsabers be more regulated.

Jasper: If people are getting riled up because they can't put down a guy in robes with a light stick, that's on them. I don't see them as a threat. Let them do their fancy little dances.

Art:  Both are a necessary part of the galaxy as we have noticed in many of the galaxy' s historic accounts

Zwee: It's only right that, as time goes on, force user groups are getting controversial. It means that the rest of us are finally waking up to the dangers that the Sith AND the Jedi bring not just to the galaxy as a whole, but to our very streets here in Coronet City. If elected, firstly I would push for a ban on 'open carry' lightsabers. They can have them in their temples, but only our brave CorSec officers or Corellian Knights should be permitted to carry them on the streets. Lawfully deputized representatives of CorSec would also be permitted to carry them but ONLY when on official CorSec missions. 

Vesha: This has a very easy solution.  Have them transported to one of the moons and leave them there without any transportation off of it.  Continue to deport force users to this.. containment colony.

Victoria: I believe we need to put in place laws to regulate the use of light sabers in public. I would like to keep a neutral position between the Jedi and Sith but I do hear the concern of the public and I will put my hand if any of the groups are causing nothing but chaos. 

___ 

[ Victoria has been serving on the Council and many would look to her as the most hard working of those who currently sit on it.] Q: At this point the Confederation consists of the five worlds of the system.  Some wish to see it expand and provide an alternative to multi-system governing bodies such as the Republic. What position would you take?

Snarj: I would look into a slow rate of possible expansion, starting with opening diplomatic talks with some of our neighboring systems which we’ve had good trade relations with.  I’d be careful though to make it clear it’s primarily a defensive alliance and besides some basic principles the Confederation does not interfere much in the governing of the individual worlds.

Victoria: I would rather keep things as it is right now. The current system is the greatest but I don't think it so bad now that we will look for alternative, but I'm not against changing later on if that is best for the five worlds. 

Vesha: Of course, expanding means more potential profits.  

Zwee: Corellia and The Five Brothers form the heart of the Core Worlds. The axis to which the galaxy turns lies with us - Corellia and her people. So saying, I would definitely be open to expanding our borders to include other worlds, mostly in line with Mister Snarj's views. However, before we stride into that future, we must focus on finding solutions to our problems at home.

Jasper: Sounds like an excuse for more red tape. The less government the better, in my opinion. My esteemed colleagues should be a wonderful indication of that. Let's worry about ourselves instead of running off trying to save the whole galaxy.

Zwee: That's Jasper for you, easily distracted by trivialities. Not the best quality in a leader.

Art: Joining multi-system Governing body might sound nice and profitable but remember when they fight their war' s our children will be required to heed the call. I would not vote in favor of joining such Bureaucratic system. Work with them is a different story but not the topic of this question

___

[ Zwee has had a successful career in the world of business and has made sizable donations to CorSec as well as worked with the Council on improving Coronets utility services. ]

Q: Currently taxes are distributed fairly equally between agendas such as education, military, social services and so on.  Is there an area you'd increase spending on and what would you spend less on to compensate for?

Zwee: As a business owner myself, I understand well the important role capitalism has on maintaining not only a healthy government, but a healthy and happy people. My privatizing  of the power and water grids have already taken some of the burden off of government spending, freeing a good deal of revenue to go towards other agendas. Personally, I would wish for that extra revenue to go towards education, couple this with lesser taxes in the business sector and our economy will soar!

Art: Taxes in regards to basic necessities should be lowered.Our focus should lay with the people, but to answer the question... I would prefer to see more funding go to start up businesses perhaps in the form of. Long running governmental. 'Loans' 

Snarj: I would increase military spending, especially when it comes to the defense fleet.  We should not be having trouble with pirates. The credits need to come from somewhere but instead of reducing funding to anything I would increase taxes on luxury goods, weaponry,  none medicinal legal spice and property that exceeds a modest threshold. 

Victoria: Of course we need to increase spending on the military as CorSec have been dealing with low funding while there is an increase in crimes. Its important to keep funding social services and education as that will help the citizen being well educated and a healthy body. If anything to cut spending then probably cut down a bit on government official salary.

Jasper: I would reduce spending on social services in favor of a slight bump in military and education. Judging from the amount of idiots you have running around on this planet it's clear to me education is a priority. Besides that, I'd rather stay alive than using taxes to pay for things like Zwee's implants. So Military seems valuable as well.

Vesha: I would cut all funding to social services, people need to learn to stand on their own two feet and stop depending on the Government.  I would put more funding into the arts as culture is far more important than those who won't help themselves.

___

[ Art also comes with a background in business as well as technology. ]

Q: With crime running rampant through Coronet and other urban areas... the cuts made to CorSec and the ever climbing violence on the streets. How do you hope to tackle this issue?

Zwee: One of my campaigns promises I made when first throwing my headband into the election was a reduction in crime. A tall order that my peers have also pledged to. However as we all know, words pale in comparison to action. My action in regards to my promise is my ExCon Initiative - giving those citizens whom have paid their time for their crimes a career in my newly privatized utilities department. It is a sad fact that oftentimes a business won't hire an ex-convict, which only leads them back into a life of crime, perpetuating the vicious cycle. Thusly, we starve the street gangs of recruits. Couple this with increased spending on education, and joining a group of thugs becomes a far, far less attractive option.

Victoria: We of course need to increase funding and more recruitment programs to gain more into the ranks. I'am not against using other organizations to help CorSec deal with the increase in crimes if that will allows us to keep our citizens safe.

Vesha: Yes, zero tolerance for riff-raff.  Have them locked up, deported, even executed if the crime is severe enough.  Send a clear message that Corellia is done letting petty thugs have their way.  Rewarding them with jobs is lunacy!

Art: This issue all relates to the fact that our poverty line is much higher then our middle class line. Investments in to free schooling till the age of 16 should be a must

Zwee: Would a zero tolerance policy also be applied to hate groups, Vesha? Also I agree with Artimis, I like the idea of free schooling up to a certain age.

Vesha: Hate isn’t a crime, it is natural to dislike parasites.  They latch onto the host and will suck it dry if left unchecked. Draining from a host while contributing little or anything is what should be considered a crime.

-- There would be a few gasps here, likely offended audience members, and the moderator would just signal to move along --

Jasper: End corruption. Too many politicians are happy to sit around smiling while they dip their hands into the pockets of criminals. The first step is to get rid of these complacent cowards. Once they're dealt with we go after the criminals themselves. We already know who half of them are. Hell, why are we sitting around pretending "His Lordly Baron of the Black Sun, 34th of his name" isn't somebody who we should be locking up? No, instead of that we'll let them host our election parties and give all of them a vote. It disgusts me. We can spend as much money on CorSec as we want, but until we reevaluate the politicians it doesn't do any good.

Snarj: I would take a closer look at how we’re spending the funding allocated to CorSec. Potentially rebalancing where the funding goes to be spending more on areas of high crime rates and less on low crime rate districts. 

___

[ Veshari is mostly known for her work in the Holofilm Industry as both an Actress and a Producer, she’s also sat on the Czerka Corporation executive board. ]

Q: Some criticize the close relationship CorSec seems to have with several organizations.  They have concerns that Jedi, Mandalorians and Corsairs have been among those who have been deputized by CorSec, especially in high crime areas such as the Blue Sector.   Critics have said that Corellia is outsourcing its problems rather than tackling them internally.  What are your thoughts on this?

Zwee: I wouldn't say that CorSec is outsourcing, no. Rather our police force is utilizing the assets we have at hand. Saying that, I share some of the concerns expressed by my fellow citizens...after all, how are we to know those being deputized are up to the task? I believe having some transparency in the deputizing process would alleviate some concerns. Also making the Corellian Knights a more attractive organization for those individuals who have some skill in the Force, rather than having them stuck in the ages-old, pragmatically problematic Jedi/Sith cults would do wonders to shore up our brave men and women in blue against force-related situations.

Art: I hold no ill will to such things if at heart the betterment of corellia takes priority above personal gain.

Snarj: I can’t say I have a problem with the current ways people are deputized.

Vesha: I don't really know, but I would make sure we're not overpaying for these types.

Jasper: Mandalorians are, in my experience, extremely lethal, efficient warriors. They're also usually assholes, but that's neither here nor there. If they want to help out CorSec I don't see why an extremely underfunded department should say no. The Jedi are, if my understanding is correct, "peaceful warriors." So that seems fair enough to me as well. Corsairs may have their own interests in doing that, I doubt it's just out of the kindness of their own heart, so maybe that should be reexamined, but if they're keeping their nose clean then again, I don't see why not. I don't see any of this as "outsourcing problems." The fact of the matter is most of these deputies live on Corellia. Citizens taking up arms to defend their homes is as internal as it gets. Just because they don't roll around eating donuts it really doesn't make a difference to me. Maybe the Mynocks will try to get deputized.

Victoria: I wouldn't say that we are outsourcing the problem but mainly finding ways to deal with the problem. I'm sure there are citizen that would rather want trained CorSec cops but in reality with the current crime wave we can't fit the demand to train new recruits in a timely manner. Training new recruits take time and if we take too much time then it allow crime to increase as well. So in my opinion I don't think anything wrong using other organization to help us with dealing crimes. It will be worst if we don't have anyone in these high crime areas.

___

[ Jasper had some roles in holo as a child but since has mostly been involved in fairly questionable organizations ]

Q: Some feel that some potentially self destructive vices such as prostitution and gambling should be made fully illegal.  Right now to run an establishment with gambling or prostitution requires a license to be purchased.  Sex workers must also be registered and licensed. Do you see the need for any change here?

Victoria: I don't see the need to completely ban prostitution and gambling because those two things will always exist just won't be in our face. Since we require businesses to have license to operate then the government can make sure our specific guidelines are follow and ensure it running nicely. Sex workers I believe would be safer because of the require license as they won't be afraid of cops of arresting them for their work and can freely report to CorSec if they suffer any abuse from their clients. 

Jasper: Absolutely not. Sex and gambling are as old as the galaxy. Outlawing it won't reduce the amount of it we do, it will just create a criminal market for it. That means trafficking. Crime is bad enough as it is. Let's treat people like adults. If you can't stop gambling that's your own fault, take responsibility.

Art: Making such things illegal will only draw in more gangsters seeking to gain more profit through such trades. I believe in a free choice of profession

Snarj: Not really, I may just try to push through raising the costs of these things as part of increasing funding to the military.

Zwee: I do not see a change as necessary, no. The licensing and registration process is design to protect both the customers of said ventures and the businesses themselves. To outlaw them would only provide a foothold for crime to weasel its way in. 

Vesha: It provides work for otherwise useless people, I suppose it doesn’t bother me all that much as long as these types of people are registered and kept away from more important functions where lesser beings are not needed and only provide a distraction.

___

Q: How are you tackling the poverty and  widespread issues facing parts of Coronot City and other urban areas while those in Vreni and other affluent areas are treated to the luxuries of Corellia. What programs are going to be put in place to better the people and allow equal opportunity?

Vesha:  Yes, my program is called..  shut up and work harder if you want to make something of yourself. 

*Zwee just gives Vesha a mildly amused look as she answers the questions, then looks directly into the camera with an arched eyebrow as if to say 'Seriously?'*

Art: I will do all in my power even invest personal capital to create more jobs

Snarj: I feel that the opportunities we present people now are fair.  Many of the poverty cases I see are the result of addiction to spice, other drugs, gambling, other ways that those without self control have squandered their opportunity at a better state of life.  This isn’t always the case but the personal freedoms that Corellians are allowed do come with some self accountability.  If anything I may look into more programs for youths in that situation to learn trade skills. 

Victoria: I'am currently working on severally programs to help address this type of program. I have spoken to a few business heads to help us fund these programs. One of the first one will be a public clinic for those that can't afford medical care as health should be the first thing people are concern with as some can't find jobs due to a number of health issue. Another  programs I'am planning is to have a training program to help those gain the necessarily skills to find jobs.

Zwee: Education and a healthy job market are the cornerstones of equal opportunity and prosperity. If we can grow more businesses in Coronet, that equals a healthy job market. One way we can achieve this is with lower taxes for the corporate sector. I feel that privatizing our infrastructure isn't taken as seriously as it should among our people. That's my answer to the inevitable question of where the credits are supposed to be coming from to support both tax cuts and an increase in government programs. My privatization of the water and power utilities frees up millions of credits that can be put towards such programs.

Jasper: Opportunity is as equal here as it is anywhere on the galaxy. If you want to live in "affluent areas" then find what you're good at and make a living out of it. Some people are lazy and we can't adjust society to try and account for them. In fact it's a strain on our taxes that we absolutely don't need.

___

Q: The top three industries on Corellia are shipbuilding, agriculture and the manufacturing on alcohol.  It is among the top exporters in the galaxy in those categories.  What industry do you think could be pushed to join them in helping to make Corellia prosper?

Jasper: Weaponry. It's one of our biggest imports. If instead of importing we make our own, in the long term we have potential not only to save huge amounts of credits, but the rest of the galaxy would come to rely on us for more than just our ships.

Snarj: I think our mining industry isn’t too far behind and there are likely things we can do to improve it

Zwee: As we grow Corellia's shipbuilding and agriculture sectors, so too will the support industries surrounding those titans grow! Again I bring up education and training as well, often overlooked as an industry. 

Victoria: Tourism as vreni island is already popular and why don't we push for more tourism into it as that will also help the businesses on the island as well. We could also try our hand on droid manufacturing.

Vesha: The holofilm industry.  Corellia has diverse scenery which really can save a lot of credits on special effects.

Art: Any that gives more jobs 

__

Q: Do you have any thoughts on the other candidates? Whether it be criticisms, concerns or compliments?

Art: None that i feel needed to put down here

Vesha: Yes, I find it hard to believe that half of them have a grade school education.

Snarj: I must say I’m deeply concerned about the human league’s involvement in the candidacy of Miss Syphex.  Many are likely too young to remember but at one point this organization was labeled as terrorists.

Zwee: I've spent a good deal of time with Councillor Victoria, I've already pledged my support for her in her bid for the Prime Minister chair, but I'm thankful for having another opportunity to give her more praise! Not only is she a thoughtful and compassionate woman, she has a sharp mind for policy as well. I'm a fan of her previously passed bill on the taxation of personal droids, for example. I have a strong concern about Ms. Vesharia Syphex and her rather alarming views about "aliens" such as myself. Being a member of a species is not a choice, Ms. Syphex.

Victoria: One of the first candidates that came to mind is Miss Zwee. I have spent some time with her and I can see that she really care for the well being of the people and the planet as a whole.I even will endorse Miss Zwee in her run for a Councilor seat.It's quite rare to find those type of people in government nowadays. now with  Mr.Raiden I would consider my closest rival in this race but I'm not too concern about him. Yes he does seem to have a business background but what is that compare to me that walk the very streets and making with people that call Corellia their home.  Another candidates that is a bit of a wild card is Jasper. He is certainly an odd character in the race but he does give some good points in what he believe should be done for the planet. Mind you at the same time he have a mouth and he should really control that and his behavior.

Jasper: They're incompetent, but you'll vote for them anyways, so this corrupt mess is your fault. In fact, I blame the citizens more for the sore state of things than these puppets.

___

Q: If elected, what would be your first action/goal ?

Snarj:  As I touched on earlier, improving the military would be my first and primary objective.  We must be able to defend ourselves in a galaxy full of those with agendas that could target our great Confederation.

Victoria: Tackle the crime wave of course

Jasper: Get rid of corruption.

Art: Begin creating a poverty free corellia

Zwee: The ban on lightsabers would be my first action, a reachable, non-nebulous goal.

Vesha: Probably having a massive center for the arts built in center city Coronet, some have suggested naming it after me. . .

--at this point a murmur in the crowd “Who the fuck is some?”--

Vesha: . . . but I'll be quite content for a modest statue or something of that nature.

As the show was fading to commercial, a topless woman would run by carrying a sign that said “Vote for Gor’gon”, perhaps a reminder that people could write in others outside the field..

[smartwebhostingblog]

Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24

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Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24

My most useful article for Seeking Alpha – personal opinion – was this one published on March 20, 2017. It provided a simple model and a not so simple model for deploying cash during corrections. The idea was to have a firm but slightly flexible plan and to help provide an investor with the necessary steel to take action amidst market chaos. I happened to write the article while eating a messy Jimmy John’s sandwich. That sandwich served as the governing metaphor for the messiness of action taken while trying to take the right action. Military training is another good metaphor. Regular drill was developed in the 18th century to get soldiers to do what they needed to do routinely even in the midst of chaos and fear.

The secret to investing is to have a plan and stick to it. If this approach interests you, you may wish to go back and read that earlier piece. It was written for SA readers to suggest a sort of drill. We are now in the middle of a firefight, and we have only sketchy ideas of what we are up against and what is happening on our flanks. What this article is going to do is present a brief outline for the plan I use for myself and explain how I have implemented it so far.

What We Know And What We Don’t Know

The most important thing to start with is what we know and what we don’t know. What we know is less than many pundits appear to think. What we don’t know includes many things that we would like to know but don’t. The key thing is to resist persuading ourselves that we have the answers. I don’t think I could put it better than I did in that March 2017 article, so I will take the liberty of quoting myself:

The one thing we know with certainty is that a correction is coming. What we don’t know is when it is coming. It may come in May. It may come in September. It may have started a couple of weeks ago. It may not come until 2018. Success in predicting the arrival of corrections is pretty much random, which means somebody will have gotten it right after the fact, but who? … So we don’t know when the next correction is coming, or whether we are already in it.

Here are some of the other things we don’t know:

We have no idea why the next correction will happen. We certainly have no idea of the proximate cause – maybe a butterfly beating its wings funny in New Zealand.

We have no idea how big the drawdown will prove to be. This unknown is important, and requires careful attention in making a plan.

We don’t know if the next drawdown will be associated with a recession or with some sort of unexpected shock, or if it will just be a correction in price and valuation. The 1987 Crash did not come with either a shock or a recession. There were investigations, mostly centered on “portfolio insurance,” but then-president Reagan probably nailed it in real time, saying “Maybe prices were too high.” The similar Crash of 1929 was followed by the worst decade in U.S. economic and market history.

We do know a few things that don’t help as much as we think.

We know that 10% corrections happen all the time, about one a year, but corrections of 30% or more happen only once, sometimes twice, per decade. The trouble is that every 30% correction starts as a 10% correction. When the market reaches a 10% decline, we can’t know for sure which we are dealing with.

Accepting the things that we do not know and the limited value of the things we do know is the beginning of wisdom. It’s the basic starting point in constructing a plan of action.

That’s how I saw it then. That’s how I see it now. The difference is that as of Christmas Eve, we got close enough in the S&P 500 to call it a 20% correction. In media language that’s a bear market. We are now surrounded by the clamor and confusion of a firefight. It’s time for the preparation to kick in. Put a clip into your M16 and be sure that it clicks in firmly. Get a good spot weld on your right cheek. Take a deep breath and let half of it out. Pick a target and squeeze, don’t jerk, the trigger. If you have practiced it, it’s automatic.

The best plans for buying market drawdowns work that way. The decision is taken out of your shaky hands. It’s automatic. After describing a couple of basic plans, I’ll explain what I did.

Two Simple Approaches That Are Easy To Execute

The simplest approach to buying dips is the oldest one: simply rebalance your portfolio at intervals. The presumption is that you have a set target allocation for stocks which you intend to keep in place over a fairly long period, such as, perhaps, a decade. The only real task is deciding what the interval should be. It might be once or twice a year, or perhaps quarterly. This approach won’t shoot the lights out, but it is likely to improve your risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Vanguard may even do the rebalancing for you.

For those who sometimes hold quite a bit of cash reserved for future investment – as I have done in recent years – you will need to make the adjustments yourself. The simplest approach may be to deploy cash mechanically as a decline hits certain predetermined levels.

Small corrections (5 or 10%) happen frequently, and I rarely buy a dip of that scale. I remind myself that if I was content with my allocation when the market was 10% lower, then I have no reason to raise it after a 10% decline. It is harder to ignore a decline that meets the criterion for a cyclical bear market. The most commonly used measure is a decline of 20%. A decline of 30% is also a cyclical bear, though somewhat deeper.

Declines in the area of 40-50% are quite rare indeed, although we experienced two of them in the decade following the year 2000. The only other time two such declines occurred within a single decade was during the 1930s. I’m sure many readers are old enough to have experienced both the 2000-2004 and 2007-2009 declines. Those of you now retired or nearing retirement will certainly never forget them. Most readers will live to experience a number of cyclical bears (20-30% declines) in the course of an investing lifetime.

A good plan has to address these facts, letting you invest part of your reserve during modest declines while leaving cash to deploy in case a decline continues to the next threshold. Having that in mind, I propose the following simple and straightforward program.

Market down 20%: Use 25% of available cash.

Market down 30%: Use another 25%.

Market down 40%: Use another 25%.

Market down 50%: Use the final 25% and go “all-in.”

Measure the degree of decline from the top. Do a quick calculation, and then just do it. If you just buy more of what you have, whether an index or individual stocks, you will find that you have added at a favorable cost. If the correction stops around 20%, once the market completes the round trip to the former top, instead of being back to your original value, your portfolio will be 2.5% higher.

If the market goes down the full 50%? When the market completes the round trip to the prior high, you will be up about 17.6%. Plus any dividends, of course.

In the United States the market has always returned to the former high and ultimately surpassed it. The longest period it took was the 25 years from 1929 to 1954, and the high rate of dividend yields in the deflationary 1930s meant that investors still did fairly well. The lesson investors should really take from the 1929 Crash is that it’s not a bad idea to hold some cash and bonds.

The good thing about this kind of averaging is that you have a plan and it is mechanical. It will calm your nerves and get you to take the right action in a crisis. More important, it will help you avoid taking the wrong action. That being said, I believe there is a better approach for the more aggressive investor.

Buffett Rebalancing

The idea of “Buffett Rebalancing” came to me from studying what Buffett has done under the variety of market conditions over his long career. In the early days he simply got out pretty much entirely when the market seemed to him absurdly overpriced. He did this in May 1969 when he closed down his partnership and explained his reasons this way. He then watched the market collapse in stages into the middle 1970s. At that point he began to buy heavily and gave all who would listen a heads-up in this famous 1974 Forbes profile.

Was Buffett then a market timer? It’s a bit of a gray area. He has made a few of the most amazingly accurate market calls ever. What’s important to remember is that his decisions in 1969 and 1974 were driven by valuation rather than by any system designed to catch market tops and bottoms. He sold when it made sense and bought when it made sense. It was the same at the 2000 and 2007 tops and at the 2008-9 bottom, for which he wrote this famous op-ed piece in the New York Times.

You and I are probably not going call market tops and bottoms with Buffett’s precision. Buffett himself doesn’t quite do it that way any more. With funds to invest that have grown to exceed $100 billion, he now tends to find things to invest in on a modest scale even when overall market prices look rather high. One can’t help noticing, however, that large acquisitions – the form of investing he now prefers – have not happened in the last few years. It will be interesting to watch what he does if the present bear market continues after a pause.

The idea of buying a little bit in response to modest opportunities while using a more aggressive approach near major market bottoms suggested a plan which I labelled “Buffett Rebalancing” in that March 2017 article. It describes what I actually attempt to do. Here’s how I put it then:

If you invest heavily in the early stages of a market decline, you have lost the bet, in a way. This can be avoided if you reserve enough cash to double down at the next level down, if the market continues to fall. That’s more or less what Buffett has done over the long term. He continuously puts money into stock purchases and acquisitions – more regularly now than he used to – but he still tries to go in much bigger when the market is down heavily. Recall his deals of 2008-2010. His frequent quote on his frame of mind at moments like this is that he feels like an oversexed man in a harem.

Here’s an outline for a buying program which increases the amount invested at each successive level.

Market down 10% or less: I generally sit tight.

Market down 20%: Use 20% of your cash reserve. Statistically, a 20% decline is about what you get on a regular basis.

Market down 30%: Use an additional 25% of your original cash amount. At this point, you will have deployed 45% of original cash available, over half of it near the bottom of a significant correction.

Market down around 40%: Use an additional 30% of your original cash. At this point, you will have deployed 75% of original cash available, 30% of it at the low point of a major down move.

Market down 50%: Use the last 25% of your original cash position and go “all-in – 100% invested.” This won’t happen very often. If the market continues to decline, turn off the TV and stop looking at brokerage statements. Tell yourself that you will look brilliant in the long run. If you’re nervous, buy canned goods and set up a cot in your basement.

This is actually a rather conservative modification of the simple plan. You can massage the numbers as you see fit. The plan I carry in my head is a little fuzzy around the edges and is weighted more heavily toward trying to buy aggressively after major declines. Nevertheless I don’t allow myself to pass on buying at the 20% hurdle. This was the sort of “Buffett Rebalancing” rule that I applied on Christmas Eve when the market took one more tumble and reached the 20% threshold. What surprised me was that I ended up adding to an already very large position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B).

What To Buy

Life is simple if you are an index investor but a lot more complicated if you own mainly individual stocks so that your portfolio is the product of many past decisions. It’s a matter of choosing whatever action makes your portfolio better. There are several ways to look at it. Borrowing again from that March 20, 2017 article, I will try to cover a few of the major possibilities:

Simply buy more of what you have. My portfolio is highly concentrated, and an advisor who put an investor as heavily into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) as I already am would probably get sued. As much as I love it, I can’t buy more. I wrote these words in 2017. Ha! Famous last words!

Buy exactly what you don’t have, in order to diversify. This is the only good way to diversify away from a high level of concentration. That was the “Buffett Rebalancing” trick used by Buffett himself when he bought Gen Re for its bond portfolio. He did the same thing in reducing the importance of his consumer staples stocks by buying industrials like BNSF and Lubrizol. On the night of December 23, I thought seriously about buying Abbvie (ABBV).

Buy things you have wanted to buy at the right price. Back in 2017 I cited Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a possibility if its valuation crept down toward a range reasonable for high-growth companies. Its PE has crept down a bit, and is closer to my fuzzy buy point. Two lines still have to cross where a cheaper PE intersects my limited ability to predict its future.

With the market down 40-50%, I would look carefully at index funds. They currently don’t work for me because cap-weighted indexes are more concentrated in high-flyers than I am comfortable with, but if a correction squeezed market P/Es toward the center – reduced dispersion, as they say – I would look at an S&P index vehicle (NYSEARCA:SPY) or maybe the Vanguard total market index (VTI). Not yet, however. The market would need to be flat on its back.

If stocks drop because of a massacre in bonds, a comparison with longer duration fixed income might suggest serious competition for stocks. I thought I would never say those words, but guess what? My first action, in early December, was exactly that. I wrote about it here and in my 2019 positioning piece.

To my own astonishment, my first reaction to the market correction was to assemble something resembling a conventional bond portfolio. I did this between December 4 and December 10, buying CDs in a ladder of sorts stretching out to 5 years and Vanguard’s long term muni fund (VWLUX). An unexpected drop in yields across the entire Treasury yield curve persuaded me that the credit cycle might be turning. I decided to extend maturities and lock in present rates. I nevertheless chose vehicles that might do pretty well even if rates picked up again and the curve steepened moderately. I also chose vehicles which could be exited without too much inconvenience if the market fell far enough that I wanted to be 90% in stocks.

That left one decision: which stock or stocks to buy on Christmas Eve.

Why I Chose Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)

There was a certain inevitability about Berkshire despite the fact that my position was heavily overweight already. It’s the company and stock I know best, having owned a position of increasing size since the 1990s. I’ve kept up with Berkshire closely enough to produce three or four SA articles per year about some aspect of it. Berkshire is also internally diversified. You can’t worry about being overweight an index fund. Berkshire isn’t quite an index fund, but it’s diversified enough for my purposes. The parts of the market it doesn’t own are generally the parts of the market I don’t want to own either.

The risk/reward of Berkshire is asymmetrical, with downside somewhat limited by its buyback policy, its cash position, and the conservative principles on which it is built. Its business value is somewhat hard to understand – you’ll know this if you have read SA writers who propose many different ways of valuing it. I believe I know enough to feel that it is significantly undervalued. Whitney Tilson’s method of estimating its value is probably the closest to mine. Summing it up, I feel that I know Berkshire better than I know any of the other nine companies in my portfolio. Some probably have more upside, but I feel less able to estimate their risk. My best estimate for Berkshire is that it will decline if the market continues to drop, but perhaps somewhat less than the market from this point on.

When buying the first 20% drop, the appropriate thing is to make a conservative buy in something you really understand at a price you will feel good about even if the market heads down another step or two. For me that was Berkshire. I bought at 189. That’s a price I will be comfortable with as a long term buying point.

Conclusion

At present, that Berkshire buy at 189 would look pretty good to a trader as Berkshire was up every day for the rest of the week and ended up more than 5% higher. Am I gloating? Not at all. Am I patting myself on the back? No to that too. That ten point bounce in Berk is actually pretty much meaningless. It could give it back in a week. If the December 24 smack-up proves to be the bottom of this downturn, it will have been a very lucky buy. The truth is that I have no way of knowing where this decline will stop. It remains firmly in the category of things that are impossible to know.

The day after Christmas looked a bit like a relief rally to me. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that the market needs to minimally gather itself and consolidate the snap-back gains and then have a follow through day within a day or two on very heavy volume. After that it could easily rally for a while and then test the lows on lower volume and momentum. It could just as easily turn around and head back down 30-40%. Who knows? Not me, certainly.

I do give myself a modest pat on the back for one thing. I had a plan. I followed it.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B, VWLUX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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[awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat]

Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24

New Post has been published on http://hosting-df.net/having-a-plan-and-sticking-to-it-why-buffett-rebalancing-made-me-buy-berkshire-on-dec-24/

Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24

My most useful article for Seeking Alpha – personal opinion – was this one published on March 20, 2017. It provided a simple model and a not so simple model for deploying cash during corrections. The idea was to have a firm but slightly flexible plan and to help provide an investor with the necessary steel to take action amidst market chaos. I happened to write the article while eating a messy Jimmy John’s sandwich. That sandwich served as the governing metaphor for the messiness of action taken while trying to take the right action. Military training is another good metaphor. Regular drill was developed in the 18th century to get soldiers to do what they needed to do routinely even in the midst of chaos and fear.

The secret to investing is to have a plan and stick to it. If this approach interests you, you may wish to go back and read that earlier piece. It was written for SA readers to suggest a sort of drill. We are now in the middle of a firefight, and we have only sketchy ideas of what we are up against and what is happening on our flanks. What this article is going to do is present a brief outline for the plan I use for myself and explain how I have implemented it so far.

What We Know And What We Don’t Know

The most important thing to start with is what we know and what we don’t know. What we know is less than many pundits appear to think. What we don’t know includes many things that we would like to know but don’t. The key thing is to resist persuading ourselves that we have the answers. I don’t think I could put it better than I did in that March 2017 article, so I will take the liberty of quoting myself:

The one thing we know with certainty is that a correction is coming. What we don’t know is when it is coming. It may come in May. It may come in September. It may have started a couple of weeks ago. It may not come until 2018. Success in predicting the arrival of corrections is pretty much random, which means somebody will have gotten it right after the fact, but who? … So we don’t know when the next correction is coming, or whether we are already in it.

Here are some of the other things we don’t know:

We have no idea why the next correction will happen. We certainly have no idea of the proximate cause – maybe a butterfly beating its wings funny in New Zealand.

We have no idea how big the drawdown will prove to be. This unknown is important, and requires careful attention in making a plan.

We don’t know if the next drawdown will be associated with a recession or with some sort of unexpected shock, or if it will just be a correction in price and valuation. The 1987 Crash did not come with either a shock or a recession. There were investigations, mostly centered on “portfolio insurance,” but then-president Reagan probably nailed it in real time, saying “Maybe prices were too high.” The similar Crash of 1929 was followed by the worst decade in U.S. economic and market history.

We do know a few things that don’t help as much as we think.

We know that 10% corrections happen all the time, about one a year, but corrections of 30% or more happen only once, sometimes twice, per decade. The trouble is that every 30% correction starts as a 10% correction. When the market reaches a 10% decline, we can’t know for sure which we are dealing with.

Accepting the things that we do not know and the limited value of the things we do know is the beginning of wisdom. It’s the basic starting point in constructing a plan of action.

That’s how I saw it then. That’s how I see it now. The difference is that as of Christmas Eve, we got close enough in the S&P 500 to call it a 20% correction. In media language that’s a bear market. We are now surrounded by the clamor and confusion of a firefight. It’s time for the preparation to kick in. Put a clip into your M16 and be sure that it clicks in firmly. Get a good spot weld on your right cheek. Take a deep breath and let half of it out. Pick a target and squeeze, don’t jerk, the trigger. If you have practiced it, it’s automatic.

The best plans for buying market drawdowns work that way. The decision is taken out of your shaky hands. It’s automatic. After describing a couple of basic plans, I’ll explain what I did.

Two Simple Approaches That Are Easy To Execute

The simplest approach to buying dips is the oldest one: simply rebalance your portfolio at intervals. The presumption is that you have a set target allocation for stocks which you intend to keep in place over a fairly long period, such as, perhaps, a decade. The only real task is deciding what the interval should be. It might be once or twice a year, or perhaps quarterly. This approach won’t shoot the lights out, but it is likely to improve your risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Vanguard may even do the rebalancing for you.

For those who sometimes hold quite a bit of cash reserved for future investment – as I have done in recent years – you will need to make the adjustments yourself. The simplest approach may be to deploy cash mechanically as a decline hits certain predetermined levels.

Small corrections (5 or 10%) happen frequently, and I rarely buy a dip of that scale. I remind myself that if I was content with my allocation when the market was 10% lower, then I have no reason to raise it after a 10% decline. It is harder to ignore a decline that meets the criterion for a cyclical bear market. The most commonly used measure is a decline of 20%. A decline of 30% is also a cyclical bear, though somewhat deeper.

Declines in the area of 40-50% are quite rare indeed, although we experienced two of them in the decade following the year 2000. The only other time two such declines occurred within a single decade was during the 1930s. I’m sure many readers are old enough to have experienced both the 2000-2004 and 2007-2009 declines. Those of you now retired or nearing retirement will certainly never forget them. Most readers will live to experience a number of cyclical bears (20-30% declines) in the course of an investing lifetime.

A good plan has to address these facts, letting you invest part of your reserve during modest declines while leaving cash to deploy in case a decline continues to the next threshold. Having that in mind, I propose the following simple and straightforward program.

Market down 20%: Use 25% of available cash.

Market down 30%: Use another 25%.

Market down 40%: Use another 25%.

Market down 50%: Use the final 25% and go “all-in.”

Measure the degree of decline from the top. Do a quick calculation, and then just do it. If you just buy more of what you have, whether an index or individual stocks, you will find that you have added at a favorable cost. If the correction stops around 20%, once the market completes the round trip to the former top, instead of being back to your original value, your portfolio will be 2.5% higher.

If the market goes down the full 50%? When the market completes the round trip to the prior high, you will be up about 17.6%. Plus any dividends, of course.

In the United States the market has always returned to the former high and ultimately surpassed it. The longest period it took was the 25 years from 1929 to 1954, and the high rate of dividend yields in the deflationary 1930s meant that investors still did fairly well. The lesson investors should really take from the 1929 Crash is that it’s not a bad idea to hold some cash and bonds.

The good thing about this kind of averaging is that you have a plan and it is mechanical. It will calm your nerves and get you to take the right action in a crisis. More important, it will help you avoid taking the wrong action. That being said, I believe there is a better approach for the more aggressive investor.

Buffett Rebalancing

The idea of “Buffett Rebalancing” came to me from studying what Buffett has done under the variety of market conditions over his long career. In the early days he simply got out pretty much entirely when the market seemed to him absurdly overpriced. He did this in May 1969 when he closed down his partnership and explained his reasons this way. He then watched the market collapse in stages into the middle 1970s. At that point he began to buy heavily and gave all who would listen a heads-up in this famous 1974 Forbes profile.

Was Buffett then a market timer? It’s a bit of a gray area. He has made a few of the most amazingly accurate market calls ever. What’s important to remember is that his decisions in 1969 and 1974 were driven by valuation rather than by any system designed to catch market tops and bottoms. He sold when it made sense and bought when it made sense. It was the same at the 2000 and 2007 tops and at the 2008-9 bottom, for which he wrote this famous op-ed piece in the New York Times.

You and I are probably not going call market tops and bottoms with Buffett’s precision. Buffett himself doesn’t quite do it that way any more. With funds to invest that have grown to exceed $100 billion, he now tends to find things to invest in on a modest scale even when overall market prices look rather high. One can’t help noticing, however, that large acquisitions – the form of investing he now prefers – have not happened in the last few years. It will be interesting to watch what he does if the present bear market continues after a pause.

The idea of buying a little bit in response to modest opportunities while using a more aggressive approach near major market bottoms suggested a plan which I labelled “Buffett Rebalancing” in that March 2017 article. It describes what I actually attempt to do. Here’s how I put it then:

If you invest heavily in the early stages of a market decline, you have lost the bet, in a way. This can be avoided if you reserve enough cash to double down at the next level down, if the market continues to fall. That’s more or less what Buffett has done over the long term. He continuously puts money into stock purchases and acquisitions – more regularly now than he used to – but he still tries to go in much bigger when the market is down heavily. Recall his deals of 2008-2010. His frequent quote on his frame of mind at moments like this is that he feels like an oversexed man in a harem.

Here’s an outline for a buying program which increases the amount invested at each successive level.

Market down 10% or less: I generally sit tight.

Market down 20%: Use 20% of your cash reserve. Statistically, a 20% decline is about what you get on a regular basis.

Market down 30%: Use an additional 25% of your original cash amount. At this point, you will have deployed 45% of original cash available, over half of it near the bottom of a significant correction.

Market down around 40%: Use an additional 30% of your original cash. At this point, you will have deployed 75% of original cash available, 30% of it at the low point of a major down move.

Market down 50%: Use the last 25% of your original cash position and go “all-in – 100% invested.” This won’t happen very often. If the market continues to decline, turn off the TV and stop looking at brokerage statements. Tell yourself that you will look brilliant in the long run. If you’re nervous, buy canned goods and set up a cot in your basement.

This is actually a rather conservative modification of the simple plan. You can massage the numbers as you see fit. The plan I carry in my head is a little fuzzy around the edges and is weighted more heavily toward trying to buy aggressively after major declines. Nevertheless I don’t allow myself to pass on buying at the 20% hurdle. This was the sort of “Buffett Rebalancing” rule that I applied on Christmas Eve when the market took one more tumble and reached the 20% threshold. What surprised me was that I ended up adding to an already very large position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B).

What To Buy

Life is simple if you are an index investor but a lot more complicated if you own mainly individual stocks so that your portfolio is the product of many past decisions. It’s a matter of choosing whatever action makes your portfolio better. There are several ways to look at it. Borrowing again from that March 20, 2017 article, I will try to cover a few of the major possibilities:

Simply buy more of what you have. My portfolio is highly concentrated, and an advisor who put an investor as heavily into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) as I already am would probably get sued. As much as I love it, I can’t buy more. I wrote these words in 2017. Ha! Famous last words!

Buy exactly what you don’t have, in order to diversify. This is the only good way to diversify away from a high level of concentration. That was the “Buffett Rebalancing” trick used by Buffett himself when he bought Gen Re for its bond portfolio. He did the same thing in reducing the importance of his consumer staples stocks by buying industrials like BNSF and Lubrizol. On the night of December 23, I thought seriously about buying Abbvie (ABBV).

Buy things you have wanted to buy at the right price. Back in 2017 I cited Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a possibility if its valuation crept down toward a range reasonable for high-growth companies. Its PE has crept down a bit, and is closer to my fuzzy buy point. Two lines still have to cross where a cheaper PE intersects my limited ability to predict its future.

With the market down 40-50%, I would look carefully at index funds. They currently don’t work for me because cap-weighted indexes are more concentrated in high-flyers than I am comfortable with, but if a correction squeezed market P/Es toward the center – reduced dispersion, as they say – I would look at an S&P index vehicle (NYSEARCA:SPY) or maybe the Vanguard total market index (VTI). Not yet, however. The market would need to be flat on its back.

If stocks drop because of a massacre in bonds, a comparison with longer duration fixed income might suggest serious competition for stocks. I thought I would never say those words, but guess what? My first action, in early December, was exactly that. I wrote about it here and in my 2019 positioning piece.

To my own astonishment, my first reaction to the market correction was to assemble something resembling a conventional bond portfolio. I did this between December 4 and December 10, buying CDs in a ladder of sorts stretching out to 5 years and Vanguard’s long term muni fund (VWLUX). An unexpected drop in yields across the entire Treasury yield curve persuaded me that the credit cycle might be turning. I decided to extend maturities and lock in present rates. I nevertheless chose vehicles that might do pretty well even if rates picked up again and the curve steepened moderately. I also chose vehicles which could be exited without too much inconvenience if the market fell far enough that I wanted to be 90% in stocks.

That left one decision: which stock or stocks to buy on Christmas Eve.

Why I Chose Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)

There was a certain inevitability about Berkshire despite the fact that my position was heavily overweight already. It’s the company and stock I know best, having owned a position of increasing size since the 1990s. I’ve kept up with Berkshire closely enough to produce three or four SA articles per year about some aspect of it. Berkshire is also internally diversified. You can’t worry about being overweight an index fund. Berkshire isn’t quite an index fund, but it’s diversified enough for my purposes. The parts of the market it doesn’t own are generally the parts of the market I don’t want to own either.

The risk/reward of Berkshire is asymmetrical, with downside somewhat limited by its buyback policy, its cash position, and the conservative principles on which it is built. Its business value is somewhat hard to understand – you’ll know this if you have read SA writers who propose many different ways of valuing it. I believe I know enough to feel that it is significantly undervalued. Whitney Tilson’s method of estimating its value is probably the closest to mine. Summing it up, I feel that I know Berkshire better than I know any of the other nine companies in my portfolio. Some probably have more upside, but I feel less able to estimate their risk. My best estimate for Berkshire is that it will decline if the market continues to drop, but perhaps somewhat less than the market from this point on.

When buying the first 20% drop, the appropriate thing is to make a conservative buy in something you really understand at a price you will feel good about even if the market heads down another step or two. For me that was Berkshire. I bought at 189. That’s a price I will be comfortable with as a long term buying point.

Conclusion

At present, that Berkshire buy at 189 would look pretty good to a trader as Berkshire was up every day for the rest of the week and ended up more than 5% higher. Am I gloating? Not at all. Am I patting myself on the back? No to that too. That ten point bounce in Berk is actually pretty much meaningless. It could give it back in a week. If the December 24 smack-up proves to be the bottom of this downturn, it will have been a very lucky buy. The truth is that I have no way of knowing where this decline will stop. It remains firmly in the category of things that are impossible to know.

The day after Christmas looked a bit like a relief rally to me. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that the market needs to minimally gather itself and consolidate the snap-back gains and then have a follow through day within a day or two on very heavy volume. After that it could easily rally for a while and then test the lows on lower volume and momentum. It could just as easily turn around and head back down 30-40%. Who knows? Not me, certainly.

I do give myself a modest pat on the back for one thing. I had a plan. I followed it.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B, VWLUX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Related Posts:

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[lazilysillyprince]

Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24

New Post has been published on http://hosting-df.net/having-a-plan-and-sticking-to-it-why-buffett-rebalancing-made-me-buy-berkshire-on-dec-24/

Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24

My most useful article for Seeking Alpha – personal opinion – was this one published on March 20, 2017. It provided a simple model and a not so simple model for deploying cash during corrections. The idea was to have a firm but slightly flexible plan and to help provide an investor with the necessary steel to take action amidst market chaos. I happened to write the article while eating a messy Jimmy John’s sandwich. That sandwich served as the governing metaphor for the messiness of action taken while trying to take the right action. Military training is another good metaphor. Regular drill was developed in the 18th century to get soldiers to do what they needed to do routinely even in the midst of chaos and fear.

The secret to investing is to have a plan and stick to it. If this approach interests you, you may wish to go back and read that earlier piece. It was written for SA readers to suggest a sort of drill. We are now in the middle of a firefight, and we have only sketchy ideas of what we are up against and what is happening on our flanks. What this article is going to do is present a brief outline for the plan I use for myself and explain how I have implemented it so far.

What We Know And What We Don’t Know

The most important thing to start with is what we know and what we don’t know. What we know is less than many pundits appear to think. What we don’t know includes many things that we would like to know but don’t. The key thing is to resist persuading ourselves that we have the answers. I don’t think I could put it better than I did in that March 2017 article, so I will take the liberty of quoting myself:

The one thing we know with certainty is that a correction is coming. What we don’t know is when it is coming. It may come in May. It may come in September. It may have started a couple of weeks ago. It may not come until 2018. Success in predicting the arrival of corrections is pretty much random, which means somebody will have gotten it right after the fact, but who? … So we don’t know when the next correction is coming, or whether we are already in it.

Here are some of the other things we don’t know:

We have no idea why the next correction will happen. We certainly have no idea of the proximate cause – maybe a butterfly beating its wings funny in New Zealand.

We have no idea how big the drawdown will prove to be. This unknown is important, and requires careful attention in making a plan.

We don’t know if the next drawdown will be associated with a recession or with some sort of unexpected shock, or if it will just be a correction in price and valuation. The 1987 Crash did not come with either a shock or a recession. There were investigations, mostly centered on “portfolio insurance,” but then-president Reagan probably nailed it in real time, saying “Maybe prices were too high.” The similar Crash of 1929 was followed by the worst decade in U.S. economic and market history.

We do know a few things that don’t help as much as we think.

We know that 10% corrections happen all the time, about one a year, but corrections of 30% or more happen only once, sometimes twice, per decade. The trouble is that every 30% correction starts as a 10% correction. When the market reaches a 10% decline, we can’t know for sure which we are dealing with.

Accepting the things that we do not know and the limited value of the things we do know is the beginning of wisdom. It’s the basic starting point in constructing a plan of action.

That’s how I saw it then. That’s how I see it now. The difference is that as of Christmas Eve, we got close enough in the S&P 500 to call it a 20% correction. In media language that’s a bear market. We are now surrounded by the clamor and confusion of a firefight. It’s time for the preparation to kick in. Put a clip into your M16 and be sure that it clicks in firmly. Get a good spot weld on your right cheek. Take a deep breath and let half of it out. Pick a target and squeeze, don’t jerk, the trigger. If you have practiced it, it’s automatic.

The best plans for buying market drawdowns work that way. The decision is taken out of your shaky hands. It’s automatic. After describing a couple of basic plans, I’ll explain what I did.

Two Simple Approaches That Are Easy To Execute

The simplest approach to buying dips is the oldest one: simply rebalance your portfolio at intervals. The presumption is that you have a set target allocation for stocks which you intend to keep in place over a fairly long period, such as, perhaps, a decade. The only real task is deciding what the interval should be. It might be once or twice a year, or perhaps quarterly. This approach won’t shoot the lights out, but it is likely to improve your risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Vanguard may even do the rebalancing for you.

For those who sometimes hold quite a bit of cash reserved for future investment – as I have done in recent years – you will need to make the adjustments yourself. The simplest approach may be to deploy cash mechanically as a decline hits certain predetermined levels.

Small corrections (5 or 10%) happen frequently, and I rarely buy a dip of that scale. I remind myself that if I was content with my allocation when the market was 10% lower, then I have no reason to raise it after a 10% decline. It is harder to ignore a decline that meets the criterion for a cyclical bear market. The most commonly used measure is a decline of 20%. A decline of 30% is also a cyclical bear, though somewhat deeper.

Declines in the area of 40-50% are quite rare indeed, although we experienced two of them in the decade following the year 2000. The only other time two such declines occurred within a single decade was during the 1930s. I’m sure many readers are old enough to have experienced both the 2000-2004 and 2007-2009 declines. Those of you now retired or nearing retirement will certainly never forget them. Most readers will live to experience a number of cyclical bears (20-30% declines) in the course of an investing lifetime.

A good plan has to address these facts, letting you invest part of your reserve during modest declines while leaving cash to deploy in case a decline continues to the next threshold. Having that in mind, I propose the following simple and straightforward program.

Market down 20%: Use 25% of available cash.

Market down 30%: Use another 25%.

Market down 40%: Use another 25%.

Market down 50%: Use the final 25% and go “all-in.”

Measure the degree of decline from the top. Do a quick calculation, and then just do it. If you just buy more of what you have, whether an index or individual stocks, you will find that you have added at a favorable cost. If the correction stops around 20%, once the market completes the round trip to the former top, instead of being back to your original value, your portfolio will be 2.5% higher.

If the market goes down the full 50%? When the market completes the round trip to the prior high, you will be up about 17.6%. Plus any dividends, of course.

In the United States the market has always returned to the former high and ultimately surpassed it. The longest period it took was the 25 years from 1929 to 1954, and the high rate of dividend yields in the deflationary 1930s meant that investors still did fairly well. The lesson investors should really take from the 1929 Crash is that it’s not a bad idea to hold some cash and bonds.

The good thing about this kind of averaging is that you have a plan and it is mechanical. It will calm your nerves and get you to take the right action in a crisis. More important, it will help you avoid taking the wrong action. That being said, I believe there is a better approach for the more aggressive investor.

Buffett Rebalancing

The idea of “Buffett Rebalancing” came to me from studying what Buffett has done under the variety of market conditions over his long career. In the early days he simply got out pretty much entirely when the market seemed to him absurdly overpriced. He did this in May 1969 when he closed down his partnership and explained his reasons this way. He then watched the market collapse in stages into the middle 1970s. At that point he began to buy heavily and gave all who would listen a heads-up in this famous 1974 Forbes profile.

Was Buffett then a market timer? It’s a bit of a gray area. He has made a few of the most amazingly accurate market calls ever. What’s important to remember is that his decisions in 1969 and 1974 were driven by valuation rather than by any system designed to catch market tops and bottoms. He sold when it made sense and bought when it made sense. It was the same at the 2000 and 2007 tops and at the 2008-9 bottom, for which he wrote this famous op-ed piece in the New York Times.

You and I are probably not going call market tops and bottoms with Buffett’s precision. Buffett himself doesn’t quite do it that way any more. With funds to invest that have grown to exceed $100 billion, he now tends to find things to invest in on a modest scale even when overall market prices look rather high. One can’t help noticing, however, that large acquisitions – the form of investing he now prefers – have not happened in the last few years. It will be interesting to watch what he does if the present bear market continues after a pause.

The idea of buying a little bit in response to modest opportunities while using a more aggressive approach near major market bottoms suggested a plan which I labelled “Buffett Rebalancing” in that March 2017 article. It describes what I actually attempt to do. Here’s how I put it then:

If you invest heavily in the early stages of a market decline, you have lost the bet, in a way. This can be avoided if you reserve enough cash to double down at the next level down, if the market continues to fall. That’s more or less what Buffett has done over the long term. He continuously puts money into stock purchases and acquisitions – more regularly now than he used to – but he still tries to go in much bigger when the market is down heavily. Recall his deals of 2008-2010. His frequent quote on his frame of mind at moments like this is that he feels like an oversexed man in a harem.

Here’s an outline for a buying program which increases the amount invested at each successive level.

Market down 10% or less: I generally sit tight.

Market down 20%: Use 20% of your cash reserve. Statistically, a 20% decline is about what you get on a regular basis.

Market down 30%: Use an additional 25% of your original cash amount. At this point, you will have deployed 45% of original cash available, over half of it near the bottom of a significant correction.

Market down around 40%: Use an additional 30% of your original cash. At this point, you will have deployed 75% of original cash available, 30% of it at the low point of a major down move.

Market down 50%: Use the last 25% of your original cash position and go “all-in – 100% invested.” This won’t happen very often. If the market continues to decline, turn off the TV and stop looking at brokerage statements. Tell yourself that you will look brilliant in the long run. If you’re nervous, buy canned goods and set up a cot in your basement.

This is actually a rather conservative modification of the simple plan. You can massage the numbers as you see fit. The plan I carry in my head is a little fuzzy around the edges and is weighted more heavily toward trying to buy aggressively after major declines. Nevertheless I don’t allow myself to pass on buying at the 20% hurdle. This was the sort of “Buffett Rebalancing” rule that I applied on Christmas Eve when the market took one more tumble and reached the 20% threshold. What surprised me was that I ended up adding to an already very large position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B).

What To Buy

Life is simple if you are an index investor but a lot more complicated if you own mainly individual stocks so that your portfolio is the product of many past decisions. It’s a matter of choosing whatever action makes your portfolio better. There are several ways to look at it. Borrowing again from that March 20, 2017 article, I will try to cover a few of the major possibilities:

Simply buy more of what you have. My portfolio is highly concentrated, and an advisor who put an investor as heavily into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) as I already am would probably get sued. As much as I love it, I can’t buy more. I wrote these words in 2017. Ha! Famous last words!

Buy exactly what you don’t have, in order to diversify. This is the only good way to diversify away from a high level of concentration. That was the “Buffett Rebalancing” trick used by Buffett himself when he bought Gen Re for its bond portfolio. He did the same thing in reducing the importance of his consumer staples stocks by buying industrials like BNSF and Lubrizol. On the night of December 23, I thought seriously about buying Abbvie (ABBV).

Buy things you have wanted to buy at the right price. Back in 2017 I cited Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a possibility if its valuation crept down toward a range reasonable for high-growth companies. Its PE has crept down a bit, and is closer to my fuzzy buy point. Two lines still have to cross where a cheaper PE intersects my limited ability to predict its future.

With the market down 40-50%, I would look carefully at index funds. They currently don’t work for me because cap-weighted indexes are more concentrated in high-flyers than I am comfortable with, but if a correction squeezed market P/Es toward the center – reduced dispersion, as they say – I would look at an S&P index vehicle (NYSEARCA:SPY) or maybe the Vanguard total market index (VTI). Not yet, however. The market would need to be flat on its back.

If stocks drop because of a massacre in bonds, a comparison with longer duration fixed income might suggest serious competition for stocks. I thought I would never say those words, but guess what? My first action, in early December, was exactly that. I wrote about it here and in my 2019 positioning piece.

To my own astonishment, my first reaction to the market correction was to assemble something resembling a conventional bond portfolio. I did this between December 4 and December 10, buying CDs in a ladder of sorts stretching out to 5 years and Vanguard’s long term muni fund (VWLUX). An unexpected drop in yields across the entire Treasury yield curve persuaded me that the credit cycle might be turning. I decided to extend maturities and lock in present rates. I nevertheless chose vehicles that might do pretty well even if rates picked up again and the curve steepened moderately. I also chose vehicles which could be exited without too much inconvenience if the market fell far enough that I wanted to be 90% in stocks.

That left one decision: which stock or stocks to buy on Christmas Eve.

Why I Chose Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)

There was a certain inevitability about Berkshire despite the fact that my position was heavily overweight already. It’s the company and stock I know best, having owned a position of increasing size since the 1990s. I’ve kept up with Berkshire closely enough to produce three or four SA articles per year about some aspect of it. Berkshire is also internally diversified. You can’t worry about being overweight an index fund. Berkshire isn’t quite an index fund, but it’s diversified enough for my purposes. The parts of the market it doesn’t own are generally the parts of the market I don’t want to own either.

The risk/reward of Berkshire is asymmetrical, with downside somewhat limited by its buyback policy, its cash position, and the conservative principles on which it is built. Its business value is somewhat hard to understand – you’ll know this if you have read SA writers who propose many different ways of valuing it. I believe I know enough to feel that it is significantly undervalued. Whitney Tilson’s method of estimating its value is probably the closest to mine. Summing it up, I feel that I know Berkshire better than I know any of the other nine companies in my portfolio. Some probably have more upside, but I feel less able to estimate their risk. My best estimate for Berkshire is that it will decline if the market continues to drop, but perhaps somewhat less than the market from this point on.

When buying the first 20% drop, the appropriate thing is to make a conservative buy in something you really understand at a price you will feel good about even if the market heads down another step or two. For me that was Berkshire. I bought at 189. That’s a price I will be comfortable with as a long term buying point.

Conclusion

At present, that Berkshire buy at 189 would look pretty good to a trader as Berkshire was up every day for the rest of the week and ended up more than 5% higher. Am I gloating? Not at all. Am I patting myself on the back? No to that too. That ten point bounce in Berk is actually pretty much meaningless. It could give it back in a week. If the December 24 smack-up proves to be the bottom of this downturn, it will have been a very lucky buy. The truth is that I have no way of knowing where this decline will stop. It remains firmly in the category of things that are impossible to know.

The day after Christmas looked a bit like a relief rally to me. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that the market needs to minimally gather itself and consolidate the snap-back gains and then have a follow through day within a day or two on very heavy volume. After that it could easily rally for a while and then test the lows on lower volume and momentum. It could just as easily turn around and head back down 30-40%. Who knows? Not me, certainly.

I do give myself a modest pat on the back for one thing. I had a plan. I followed it.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B, VWLUX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24

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Having A Plan And Sticking To It: Why 'Buffett Rebalancing' Made Me Buy Berkshire On Dec 24

My most useful article for Seeking Alpha – personal opinion – was this one published on March 20, 2017. It provided a simple model and a not so simple model for deploying cash during corrections. The idea was to have a firm but slightly flexible plan and to help provide an investor with the necessary steel to take action amidst market chaos. I happened to write the article while eating a messy Jimmy John’s sandwich. That sandwich served as the governing metaphor for the messiness of action taken while trying to take the right action. Military training is another good metaphor. Regular drill was developed in the 18th century to get soldiers to do what they needed to do routinely even in the midst of chaos and fear.

The secret to investing is to have a plan and stick to it. If this approach interests you, you may wish to go back and read that earlier piece. It was written for SA readers to suggest a sort of drill. We are now in the middle of a firefight, and we have only sketchy ideas of what we are up against and what is happening on our flanks. What this article is going to do is present a brief outline for the plan I use for myself and explain how I have implemented it so far.

What We Know And What We Don’t Know

The most important thing to start with is what we know and what we don’t know. What we know is less than many pundits appear to think. What we don’t know includes many things that we would like to know but don’t. The key thing is to resist persuading ourselves that we have the answers. I don’t think I could put it better than I did in that March 2017 article, so I will take the liberty of quoting myself:

The one thing we know with certainty is that a correction is coming. What we don’t know is when it is coming. It may come in May. It may come in September. It may have started a couple of weeks ago. It may not come until 2018. Success in predicting the arrival of corrections is pretty much random, which means somebody will have gotten it right after the fact, but who? … So we don’t know when the next correction is coming, or whether we are already in it.

Here are some of the other things we don’t know:

We have no idea why the next correction will happen. We certainly have no idea of the proximate cause – maybe a butterfly beating its wings funny in New Zealand.

We have no idea how big the drawdown will prove to be. This unknown is important, and requires careful attention in making a plan.

We don’t know if the next drawdown will be associated with a recession or with some sort of unexpected shock, or if it will just be a correction in price and valuation. The 1987 Crash did not come with either a shock or a recession. There were investigations, mostly centered on “portfolio insurance,” but then-president Reagan probably nailed it in real time, saying “Maybe prices were too high.” The similar Crash of 1929 was followed by the worst decade in U.S. economic and market history.

We do know a few things that don’t help as much as we think.

We know that 10% corrections happen all the time, about one a year, but corrections of 30% or more happen only once, sometimes twice, per decade. The trouble is that every 30% correction starts as a 10% correction. When the market reaches a 10% decline, we can’t know for sure which we are dealing with.

Accepting the things that we do not know and the limited value of the things we do know is the beginning of wisdom. It’s the basic starting point in constructing a plan of action.

That’s how I saw it then. That’s how I see it now. The difference is that as of Christmas Eve, we got close enough in the S&P 500 to call it a 20% correction. In media language that’s a bear market. We are now surrounded by the clamor and confusion of a firefight. It’s time for the preparation to kick in. Put a clip into your M16 and be sure that it clicks in firmly. Get a good spot weld on your right cheek. Take a deep breath and let half of it out. Pick a target and squeeze, don’t jerk, the trigger. If you have practiced it, it’s automatic.

The best plans for buying market drawdowns work that way. The decision is taken out of your shaky hands. It’s automatic. After describing a couple of basic plans, I’ll explain what I did.

Two Simple Approaches That Are Easy To Execute

The simplest approach to buying dips is the oldest one: simply rebalance your portfolio at intervals. The presumption is that you have a set target allocation for stocks which you intend to keep in place over a fairly long period, such as, perhaps, a decade. The only real task is deciding what the interval should be. It might be once or twice a year, or perhaps quarterly. This approach won’t shoot the lights out, but it is likely to improve your risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Vanguard may even do the rebalancing for you.

For those who sometimes hold quite a bit of cash reserved for future investment – as I have done in recent years – you will need to make the adjustments yourself. The simplest approach may be to deploy cash mechanically as a decline hits certain predetermined levels.

Small corrections (5 or 10%) happen frequently, and I rarely buy a dip of that scale. I remind myself that if I was content with my allocation when the market was 10% lower, then I have no reason to raise it after a 10% decline. It is harder to ignore a decline that meets the criterion for a cyclical bear market. The most commonly used measure is a decline of 20%. A decline of 30% is also a cyclical bear, though somewhat deeper.

Declines in the area of 40-50% are quite rare indeed, although we experienced two of them in the decade following the year 2000. The only other time two such declines occurred within a single decade was during the 1930s. I’m sure many readers are old enough to have experienced both the 2000-2004 and 2007-2009 declines. Those of you now retired or nearing retirement will certainly never forget them. Most readers will live to experience a number of cyclical bears (20-30% declines) in the course of an investing lifetime.

A good plan has to address these facts, letting you invest part of your reserve during modest declines while leaving cash to deploy in case a decline continues to the next threshold. Having that in mind, I propose the following simple and straightforward program.

Market down 20%: Use 25% of available cash.

Market down 30%: Use another 25%.

Market down 40%: Use another 25%.

Market down 50%: Use the final 25% and go “all-in.”

Measure the degree of decline from the top. Do a quick calculation, and then just do it. If you just buy more of what you have, whether an index or individual stocks, you will find that you have added at a favorable cost. If the correction stops around 20%, once the market completes the round trip to the former top, instead of being back to your original value, your portfolio will be 2.5% higher.

If the market goes down the full 50%? When the market completes the round trip to the prior high, you will be up about 17.6%. Plus any dividends, of course.

In the United States the market has always returned to the former high and ultimately surpassed it. The longest period it took was the 25 years from 1929 to 1954, and the high rate of dividend yields in the deflationary 1930s meant that investors still did fairly well. The lesson investors should really take from the 1929 Crash is that it’s not a bad idea to hold some cash and bonds.

The good thing about this kind of averaging is that you have a plan and it is mechanical. It will calm your nerves and get you to take the right action in a crisis. More important, it will help you avoid taking the wrong action. That being said, I believe there is a better approach for the more aggressive investor.

Buffett Rebalancing

The idea of “Buffett Rebalancing” came to me from studying what Buffett has done under the variety of market conditions over his long career. In the early days he simply got out pretty much entirely when the market seemed to him absurdly overpriced. He did this in May 1969 when he closed down his partnership and explained his reasons this way. He then watched the market collapse in stages into the middle 1970s. At that point he began to buy heavily and gave all who would listen a heads-up in this famous 1974 Forbes profile.

Was Buffett then a market timer? It’s a bit of a gray area. He has made a few of the most amazingly accurate market calls ever. What’s important to remember is that his decisions in 1969 and 1974 were driven by valuation rather than by any system designed to catch market tops and bottoms. He sold when it made sense and bought when it made sense. It was the same at the 2000 and 2007 tops and at the 2008-9 bottom, for which he wrote this famous op-ed piece in the New York Times.

You and I are probably not going call market tops and bottoms with Buffett’s precision. Buffett himself doesn’t quite do it that way any more. With funds to invest that have grown to exceed $100 billion, he now tends to find things to invest in on a modest scale even when overall market prices look rather high. One can’t help noticing, however, that large acquisitions – the form of investing he now prefers – have not happened in the last few years. It will be interesting to watch what he does if the present bear market continues after a pause.

The idea of buying a little bit in response to modest opportunities while using a more aggressive approach near major market bottoms suggested a plan which I labelled “Buffett Rebalancing” in that March 2017 article. It describes what I actually attempt to do. Here’s how I put it then:

If you invest heavily in the early stages of a market decline, you have lost the bet, in a way. This can be avoided if you reserve enough cash to double down at the next level down, if the market continues to fall. That’s more or less what Buffett has done over the long term. He continuously puts money into stock purchases and acquisitions – more regularly now than he used to – but he still tries to go in much bigger when the market is down heavily. Recall his deals of 2008-2010. His frequent quote on his frame of mind at moments like this is that he feels like an oversexed man in a harem.

Here’s an outline for a buying program which increases the amount invested at each successive level.

Market down 10% or less: I generally sit tight.

Market down 20%: Use 20% of your cash reserve. Statistically, a 20% decline is about what you get on a regular basis.

Market down 30%: Use an additional 25% of your original cash amount. At this point, you will have deployed 45% of original cash available, over half of it near the bottom of a significant correction.

Market down around 40%: Use an additional 30% of your original cash. At this point, you will have deployed 75% of original cash available, 30% of it at the low point of a major down move.

Market down 50%: Use the last 25% of your original cash position and go “all-in – 100% invested.” This won’t happen very often. If the market continues to decline, turn off the TV and stop looking at brokerage statements. Tell yourself that you will look brilliant in the long run. If you’re nervous, buy canned goods and set up a cot in your basement.

This is actually a rather conservative modification of the simple plan. You can massage the numbers as you see fit. The plan I carry in my head is a little fuzzy around the edges and is weighted more heavily toward trying to buy aggressively after major declines. Nevertheless I don’t allow myself to pass on buying at the 20% hurdle. This was the sort of “Buffett Rebalancing” rule that I applied on Christmas Eve when the market took one more tumble and reached the 20% threshold. What surprised me was that I ended up adding to an already very large position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B).

What To Buy

Life is simple if you are an index investor but a lot more complicated if you own mainly individual stocks so that your portfolio is the product of many past decisions. It’s a matter of choosing whatever action makes your portfolio better. There are several ways to look at it. Borrowing again from that March 20, 2017 article, I will try to cover a few of the major possibilities:

Simply buy more of what you have. My portfolio is highly concentrated, and an advisor who put an investor as heavily into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) as I already am would probably get sued. As much as I love it, I can’t buy more. I wrote these words in 2017. Ha! Famous last words!

Buy exactly what you don’t have, in order to diversify. This is the only good way to diversify away from a high level of concentration. That was the “Buffett Rebalancing” trick used by Buffett himself when he bought Gen Re for its bond portfolio. He did the same thing in reducing the importance of his consumer staples stocks by buying industrials like BNSF and Lubrizol. On the night of December 23, I thought seriously about buying Abbvie (ABBV).

Buy things you have wanted to buy at the right price. Back in 2017 I cited Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a possibility if its valuation crept down toward a range reasonable for high-growth companies. Its PE has crept down a bit, and is closer to my fuzzy buy point. Two lines still have to cross where a cheaper PE intersects my limited ability to predict its future.

With the market down 40-50%, I would look carefully at index funds. They currently don’t work for me because cap-weighted indexes are more concentrated in high-flyers than I am comfortable with, but if a correction squeezed market P/Es toward the center – reduced dispersion, as they say – I would look at an S&P index vehicle (NYSEARCA:SPY) or maybe the Vanguard total market index (VTI). Not yet, however. The market would need to be flat on its back.

If stocks drop because of a massacre in bonds, a comparison with longer duration fixed income might suggest serious competition for stocks. I thought I would never say those words, but guess what? My first action, in early December, was exactly that. I wrote about it here and in my 2019 positioning piece.

To my own astonishment, my first reaction to the market correction was to assemble something resembling a conventional bond portfolio. I did this between December 4 and December 10, buying CDs in a ladder of sorts stretching out to 5 years and Vanguard’s long term muni fund (VWLUX). An unexpected drop in yields across the entire Treasury yield curve persuaded me that the credit cycle might be turning. I decided to extend maturities and lock in present rates. I nevertheless chose vehicles that might do pretty well even if rates picked up again and the curve steepened moderately. I also chose vehicles which could be exited without too much inconvenience if the market fell far enough that I wanted to be 90% in stocks.

That left one decision: which stock or stocks to buy on Christmas Eve.

Why I Chose Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)

There was a certain inevitability about Berkshire despite the fact that my position was heavily overweight already. It’s the company and stock I know best, having owned a position of increasing size since the 1990s. I’ve kept up with Berkshire closely enough to produce three or four SA articles per year about some aspect of it. Berkshire is also internally diversified. You can’t worry about being overweight an index fund. Berkshire isn’t quite an index fund, but it’s diversified enough for my purposes. The parts of the market it doesn’t own are generally the parts of the market I don’t want to own either.

The risk/reward of Berkshire is asymmetrical, with downside somewhat limited by its buyback policy, its cash position, and the conservative principles on which it is built. Its business value is somewhat hard to understand – you’ll know this if you have read SA writers who propose many different ways of valuing it. I believe I know enough to feel that it is significantly undervalued. Whitney Tilson’s method of estimating its value is probably the closest to mine. Summing it up, I feel that I know Berkshire better than I know any of the other nine companies in my portfolio. Some probably have more upside, but I feel less able to estimate their risk. My best estimate for Berkshire is that it will decline if the market continues to drop, but perhaps somewhat less than the market from this point on.

When buying the first 20% drop, the appropriate thing is to make a conservative buy in something you really understand at a price you will feel good about even if the market heads down another step or two. For me that was Berkshire. I bought at 189. That’s a price I will be comfortable with as a long term buying point.

Conclusion

At present, that Berkshire buy at 189 would look pretty good to a trader as Berkshire was up every day for the rest of the week and ended up more than 5% higher. Am I gloating? Not at all. Am I patting myself on the back? No to that too. That ten point bounce in Berk is actually pretty much meaningless. It could give it back in a week. If the December 24 smack-up proves to be the bottom of this downturn, it will have been a very lucky buy. The truth is that I have no way of knowing where this decline will stop. It remains firmly in the category of things that are impossible to know.

The day after Christmas looked a bit like a relief rally to me. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that the market needs to minimally gather itself and consolidate the snap-back gains and then have a follow through day within a day or two on very heavy volume. After that it could easily rally for a while and then test the lows on lower volume and momentum. It could just as easily turn around and head back down 30-40%. Who knows? Not me, certainly.

I do give myself a modest pat on the back for one thing. I had a plan. I followed it.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B, VWLUX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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They voted for Brexit in a cry of pain – what happened to the left-behind?

It was not much more than a year ago. The result of the EU referendum was still being pored over, and the political moment seemed to be all about two things: a view of much of the leave vote as a cry of pain and resentment from parts of the country beyond London, and the urgent need to do something. Journalists were still being dispatched to the supposed Brexit heartlands; among politicians, the idea was that now that such places as south Wales, the east of England, the Midlands and the non-urban north had spoken so loudly that their deep problems were finally going to be addressed.

October 2016, delivered in the days when she was still in the business of strong and stable leadership and her backdrops did not collapse, both literally and metaphorically. She used the word “revolution” four times. “In June people voted for change,” she said. “And a change is going to come … this is a turning point for our country.”

She did not mean this only in terms of our exit from the EU: the referendum, she said, was nothing less than a “call for a change in the way our country works – and the people for whom it works – forever”. Among other things, there was to be “an economic and cultural revival of all of our great regional cities”, while the power of government would be placed “squarely at the service of ordinary working-class people”, and the gap between “the wealth of London and the rest of the country” would be narrowed.

Now, as her government decays, most of her words read like the founding statement of a project that never was. Clearly, even if most of the people who voted for Brexit still seem convinced that it was the right thing to do, there are few signs of any changes to the places where they live. Quite the reverse, in fact. Though the creation of the capital’s beloved £15bn Crossrail continues apace, plans to modernise railway lines in Wales, Yorkshire, the Midlands and Cumbria have all been shelved. Philip Hammond has promised train services in the north a derisory extra £300m (by way of comparison, the cost of HS2 is put at £400m per mile).

Meanwhile, the austerity imposed on city and local government carries on, and the loudest sound coming from the most neglected parts of the country is the great howl of pain arising from the government’s cruel changes to the benefits system. The Welsh town of Merthyr Tydfil became something of a byword for Brexit, and it seems just as symbolic of what has happened since: universal credit will arrive there next March, and the local council is facing at least another two years of cuts. Not that far away in Newport, Gwent, where 56% of people voted to leave the EU, the council leader also happens to be the head of the Welsh Local Government Association.

£500m has already been spent on preparing to leave the EU, that next year’s outlays will be about £1m a day, and that the number of extra civil servants who will be needed to deal with our departure is now put at 8,000. Imagine if all that money and effort were devoted to a policy aimed at reversing the country’s long decline and thinking creatively about the future.

That mess of contradictions might look like good news for the people who think Brexit has to be overturned. But in the context of the places that ensured that leave had a majority, they have their own set of problems.

Whenever I spend time in Brexit-supporting areas, a few questions usually rattle through my mind. In the 17 months since the vote, has the coalition of forces – Labour and Tory remainers, Liberal Democrats, Greens – that now demands it is nullified given any serious thought to why so much of the country failed to heed its warnings, and continues to ignore them, even as promises go unmet, and Brexit grows dangerous and ever more complex? Do they have any kind of offer to leave voters in neglected places, beyond a second referendum and a return to the pre-2016 status quo? And hand on heart: if you are one of those people for whom a remain vote is now a matter of deep personal identity, has your view of the average Brexit supporter progressed much beyond a lazy caricature of Little Englander nastiness?

Even if the prime minister has failed to make good on her promises of a rebalanced country, the Brexit moment embodies one aspect of her vision: the fact that, for the first time in decades, people and places that were long overlooked – sneered at, even – now sit at the core of our national politics. Though the Labour party’s acceptance of Brexit and its failure to come up with much of an alternative might seem maddening, its position on the EU is not just down to the Eurosceptic instincts of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell. Clearly, it is also locked into its position by the fact that most of the constituencies it holds – seven out of 10, according to credible estimates – voted to leave Europe, and the assumption that a critical number of the people who live in them are still of the opinion that Brexit has to happen, no matter what.

How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit | Mark Galeotti

If you want to be patronising about it, you could take the view that all this is down to the lies of the leave campaign and a mess of nastiness surrounding immigration. But from a more enlightened perspective, it might be more instructive to understand a lot of support for leave as the climax of years of decline, neglect and condescension – and something that is hardly going to be abandoned in a hurry.

Forget, for a moment, all that noise about the fine details of the negotiations or whatever Liam Fox has said recently about chicken, and think about how the politics of Brexit will actually play out. If the government’s weak grip on power offers the chance of renewed questioning of where the country is headed, some of the answer will arise from those remain-supporting MPs who now reluctantly back leaving the EU out of fear of their leave-voting constituents.

Will those voters change their minds? If there is a contrast between the promises of national revival made only a year ago and the lack of action since, a lot will hang on whether that discrepancy has any traction, or collides with people’s ingrained fatalism and fades away. Just as much will depend on the trade-off between economic damage and a deep belief in national sovereignty that runs much deeper among working-class leave supporters than some people would like to think. The future suddenly pivots on Merthyr and Mansfield, Walsall and Blackburn: symbolic of these unexpected, upturned times.

They voted for Brexit in a cry of pain – what happened to the left-behind?

May hasn’t delivered on her pledge to rebalance the country. In fact with austerity cuts, economic revival in leave-voting areas seems more unlikely than ever

Source

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/05/brexit-theresa-may-economic-austerity-leave-voting

[mikebrackett]

Advisor #FinTech As A Distribution Channel For Insurance And Investment Products

The competition for getting a financial advisor’s attention has never been fiercer… which in recent years has led to an explosion of increasingly aggressive wholesaler efforts to try to get in front of advisors, especially in the RIA channel. The volume of inquiries has risen so much, most advisors don’t even have the time to politely say “no” to all the requests, and instead are increasingly adopting a “don’t call us, we’ll call you if we want information” approach, or simply going directly to the websites of product manufacturers for the information they need. Which means asset managers, insurance companies, and other financial services product manufacturers need to find new and innovative ways to reach advisors in the first place, to get their investment, insurance, and annuity products to market.

In this week’s #OfficeHours with @MichaelKitces, my Tuesday 1PM EST broadcast via Periscope, we look at an emerging trend of investment and insurance product distributioin: the idea of technology itself as a product distribution channel to reach advisors… and the opportunities, innovations, and conflicts of interest that arise from such arrangements!

The most apparent starting point for this shift of technology as a distribution channel was the rise of the robo-advisors. Robo-advisors first started gaining real momentum in 2014, and it was around this time that asset managers – particularly fund managers – began asking, “Do we need to launch our own robo advisors, or risk being excluded from the trend?” But the reality was that there was nothing unique about robo-advisors that required the use of ETFs. Effectively robo-advisor technology was simply a way to gather assets and execute a managed account, which means the technology was basically just another distribution channel for the asset manager – companies that could get their products into the managed account wrapper were the winners. And so, after Schwab picked up over $2B in assets in just their first 3 months of Schwab Intelligent Portfolios – comprised nearly 70% of Schwab’s own proprietary products – BlackRock decided to acquire FutureAdvisor to distribute their iShares ETFs, Invesco bought Jemstep to distribute PowerShares ETFs, and WisdomTree invested heavily into AdvisorEngine to distribute WisdomTree ETFs, as asset managers began seeking robo-platforms that they could put their funds on and offer the technology to advisors – turning the robo-advisor into a distribution channel (and owning your own robo-advisor as a vertically integrated distribution strategy).

Over the past year, this evolution of technology as a distribution channel has gone one step further, with the rise of the so-called “Model Marketplace”, where advisors can select third-party investment models, and then have trades automatically executed in the advisor’s own portfolio management or rebalancing software tools. The distinction from the early robo-advisors like Wealthfront, Betterment, FutureAdvisor, and Schwab Intelligent Portfolios was that advisors remain responsible for (and in control of) placing trades, although that trading is made very easy by the technology. However, the caveat for such portfolios was that in order to use them for free, advisors typically must use pre-fabricated models in the marketplace… which are often made by the asset managers, and include their own proprietary funds. In point of fact, the technology is so becoming a distribution channel, that now asset managers are starting to subsidize the cost of advisor technology, just to have a chance to get their funds into the hands of the advisors that use the technology! And notably, this trend isn’t unique to “just” rebalancing software and model marketplaces, as financial planning software such as MoneyGuidePro and Advizr have begun to partner with product companies to easily recommend appropriate insurance or investment products where the client can open the account or apply electronically on the spot from within the planning software itself!

And despite the rapid push towards new technology channels, I suspect we’re still in the early phases of this transition to the idea that Advisor FinTech itself can be a distribution channel. From the technology company’s perspective, the good news of this emerging channel is that it provides a new source of revenue for companies, especially since advisors have already shown far more willingness to have technology costs borne by the expense ratios of insurance and investment products, rather than by paying for the software directly from their own Profit and Loss statement.

However, with this new distribution channel will come new innovation, opportunities, and conflicts of interest – as technology companies struggle with everything from overcoming the same growth problems that robo-advisors faced in the first place (as it’s very hard to grow user adoption, and existing incumbents with existing brands can easily leapfrog new entrants), to technology companies navigating the mid-point between the conflicts of getting paid for product distribution and trying to satisfy independent fiduciary advisors (as the recent debacle of TD Ameritrade’s ETF Market Center illustrated).

The bottom line, though, is simply to recognize that a major shift is currently underway. As advisors increasingly adopt the technology, the technology itself is becoming a distribution channel for products that asset managers, insurance companies, and annuity companies, who seem very willing to pay for access in a competitive marketplace. Which means more new tools and innovation for advisors. But also tools with a whole new range of conflicts of interest that we’ve never had to deal with before!

Read More…

from Updates About Loans https://www.kitces.com/blog/advisor-fintech-product-distribution-channel-robo-advisor-model-marketplace/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=advisor-fintech-product-distribution-channel-robo-advisor-model-marketplace

[aaronsniderus]

Advisor #FinTech As A Distribution Channel For Insurance And Investment Products

The competition for getting a financial advisor’s attention has never been fiercer… which in recent years has led to an explosion of increasingly aggressive wholesaler efforts to try to get in front of advisors, especially in the RIA channel. The volume of inquiries has risen so much, most advisors don’t even have the time to politely say “no” to all the requests, and instead are increasingly adopting a “don’t call us, we’ll call you if we want information” approach, or simply going directly to the websites of product manufacturers for the information they need. Which means asset managers, insurance companies, and other financial services product manufacturers need to find new and innovative ways to reach advisors in the first place, to get their investment, insurance, and annuity products to market.

In this week’s #OfficeHours with @MichaelKitces, my Tuesday 1PM EST broadcast via Periscope, we look at an emerging trend of investment and insurance product distributioin: the idea of technology itself as a product distribution channel to reach advisors… and the opportunities, innovations, and conflicts of interest that arise from such arrangements!

The most apparent starting point for this shift of technology as a distribution channel was the rise of the robo-advisors. Robo-advisors first started gaining real momentum in 2014, and it was around this time that asset managers – particularly fund managers – began asking, “Do we need to launch our own robo advisors, or risk being excluded from the trend?” But the reality was that there was nothing unique about robo-advisors that required the use of ETFs. Effectively robo-advisor technology was simply a way to gather assets and execute a managed account, which means the technology was basically just another distribution channel for the asset manager – companies that could get their products into the managed account wrapper were the winners. And so, after Schwab picked up over $2B in assets in just their first 3 months of Schwab Intelligent Portfolios – comprised nearly 70% of Schwab’s own proprietary products – BlackRock decided to acquire FutureAdvisor to distribute their iShares ETFs, Invesco bought Jemstep to distribute PowerShares ETFs, and WisdomTree invested heavily into AdvisorEngine to distribute WisdomTree ETFs, as asset managers began seeking robo-platforms that they could put their funds on and offer the technology to advisors – turning the robo-advisor into a distribution channel (and owning your own robo-advisor as a vertically integrated distribution strategy).

Over the past year, this evolution of technology as a distribution channel has gone one step further, with the rise of the so-called “Model Marketplace”, where advisors can select third-party investment models, and then have trades automatically executed in the advisor’s own portfolio management or rebalancing software tools. The distinction from the early robo-advisors like Wealthfront, Betterment, FutureAdvisor, and Schwab Intelligent Portfolios was that advisors remain responsible for (and in control of) placing trades, although that trading is made very easy by the technology. However, the caveat for such portfolios was that in order to use them for free, advisors typically must use pre-fabricated models in the marketplace… which are often made by the asset managers, and include their own proprietary funds. In point of fact, the technology is so becoming a distribution channel, that now asset managers are starting to subsidize the cost of advisor technology, just to have a chance to get their funds into the hands of the advisors that use the technology! And notably, this trend isn’t unique to “just” rebalancing software and model marketplaces, as financial planning software such as MoneyGuidePro and Advizr have begun to partner with product companies to easily recommend appropriate insurance or investment products where the client can open the account or apply electronically on the spot from within the planning software itself!

And despite the rapid push towards new technology channels, I suspect we’re still in the early phases of this transition to the idea that Advisor FinTech itself can be a distribution channel. From the technology company’s perspective, the good news of this emerging channel is that it provides a new source of revenue for companies, especially since advisors have already shown far more willingness to have technology costs borne by the expense ratios of insurance and investment products, rather than by paying for the software directly from their own Profit and Loss statement.

However, with this new distribution channel will come new innovation, opportunities, and conflicts of interest – as technology companies struggle with everything from overcoming the same growth problems that robo-advisors faced in the first place (as it’s very hard to grow user adoption, and existing incumbents with existing brands can easily leapfrog new entrants), to technology companies navigating the mid-point between the conflicts of getting paid for product distribution and trying to satisfy independent fiduciary advisors (as the recent debacle of TD Ameritrade’s ETF Market Center illustrated).

The bottom line, though, is simply to recognize that a major shift is currently underway. As advisors increasingly adopt the technology, the technology itself is becoming a distribution channel for products that asset managers, insurance companies, and annuity companies, who seem very willing to pay for access in a competitive marketplace. Which means more new tools and innovation for advisors. But also tools with a whole new range of conflicts of interest that we’ve never had to deal with before!

Read More…

from Updates About Loans https://www.kitces.com/blog/advisor-fintech-product-distribution-channel-robo-advisor-model-marketplace/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=advisor-fintech-product-distribution-channel-robo-advisor-model-marketplace