#Received 27 April / Responded 28 April 2024

[brian-in-finance]

Thanks for the message, Anon. 😃

Yeah… no…

Here are screenshots from your link:

The “picture” screenshot was taken from an IFTA red carpet interview by Eric Roberts and India Sasha, recorded Live on TikTok.

IFTA was interviewing Best Supporting Actor - Drama nominee Emmett J. Scanlan (Kin), as the full image shows.

Brian’s post 21 April 2024

So tell me... why would a Scotsman, who hasn't been in any IFTA-nominated production, and isn't presenting nor receiving an IFTA Award, be standing in the interview area on the IFTA red carpet?

He wouldn’t. (And the actual “Scotsman” in attendance walked behind the interview area, alongside the building, and straight into it, as previously noted here.)

So who might the tall blond man in the blue circle ⬇️ standing behind India be? And what is the wee bit of orange in the orange oval behind Eric?

Could Blue Circle Man be part of Kneecap’s entourage?

It’s more likely he is. Kneecap was at the IFTAs, after all.

And why the balaclava? 😂

Remember… DJ Próvaí’s signature green-orange-white balaclava hangs backstage at Bowery Ballroom. He began wearing the disguise when the band was first taking off, and he was still employed as a teacher. "It didn't stop him from being thrown out of the school," says Móglaí Bap. Adds Mo Chara: "It was the worst-kept secret in Ireland." — Rolling Stone

[probablyasocialecologist]

In the context of what we’ve learned from our investigations into opt-in polls, we took particular notice of a recent online opt-in survey that had a startling finding about Holocaust denial among young Americans. The survey, fielded in December 2023, reported that 20% of U.S. adults under 30 agree with the statement, “The Holocaust is a myth.” This alarming finding received widespread attention from the news media and on social networks. From a survey science perspective, the finding deserved a closer look. It raised both of the red flags in the research literature about bogus respondents: It focused on a rare attitude (Holocaust denial), and it involved a subgroup frequently “infiltrated” by bogus respondents (young adults). Other questions asked in that December opt-in poll also pointed to a need for scrutiny. In the same poll, about half of adults under 30 (48%) expressed opposition to legal abortion. This result is dramatically at odds with rigorous polling from multiple survey organizations that consistently finds the rate of opposition among young adults to be much lower. In an April 2023 Pew Research Center survey, for instance, 26% of U.S. adults under 30 said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. This was 13 points lower than the share among older Americans (39%). Our estimate for young adults was similar to ones from other, more recent probability-based surveys, such as an AP-NORC survey from June 2023 (27%) and a KFF survey from November 2023 (28%). We attempted to replicate the opt-in poll’s findings in our own survey, fielded in mid-January 2024 on Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel. Unlike the December opt-in survey, our survey panel is recruited by mail – rather than online – using probability-based sampling. And in fact, our findings were quite different. Rather than 20%, we found that 3% of adults under 30 agree with the statement “The Holocaust is a myth.” (This percentage is the same for every other age group as well.) Had this been the original result, it is unlikely that it would have generated the same kind of media attention on one of the most sensitive possible topics. Likewise, our survey found substantial differences from the December poll on support for legal abortion. In the opt-in survey, roughly half of young adults (48%) said abortion should always be illegal or should only be legal in special circumstances, such as when the life of the mother is in danger. In our survey, 23% said so. These differences in estimates for young adults are what we would expect to see – based on past studies – if there were a large number of bogus respondents in the opt-in poll claiming to be under the age of 30. These respondents likely were not answering the questions based on their true opinions. The takeaway from our recent survey experiment is not that Holocaust denial in the United States is nonexistent or that younger and older Americans all have the same opinions when it comes to antisemitism or the Middle East. For example, our survey experiment found that young adults in the U.S. are less likely than older ones to say the state of Israel has the right to exist. This is broadly consistent with other rigorous polling showing that young people are somewhat less supportive of Israel – and more supportive of Palestinians – than older Americans. Rather, the takeaway is that reporting on complex and sensitive matters such as these requires the use of rigorous survey methods to avoid inadvertently misleading the public, particularly when studying the attitudes of young people.