#Q4 e-tron comparison
Explore tagged Tumblr posts
noohyah · 1 year ago
Text
Audi E Tron Vs Audi Q4 E-Tron: Key Differences & Similarities!
If you are looking for a premium electric SUV, you might be interested in the Audi E Tron Vs Audi Q4 E-Tron comparison. These two models are part of Audi’s growing range of electric vehicles, and they offer different features and benefits for different needs and preferences.  In this article, we will explore the key differences and similarities between the Audi E-Tron and the Audi Q4 E-Tron, such…
Tumblr media
View On WordPress
0 notes
Video
youtube
Audi Q5 TFSi petrol V electric Q4 e-tron or VW iD.4 / Enyak. Cost comparisons explained - surprised?
RSymons RSEV
The Audi is a great SUV family car. This is a TFSi and I was pleasantly surprised it’s a pretty decent car. But… why on Earth choose this over the electric equivalents, for example the Q4 e-Tron / etron I really struggle to find any logical reasoning at all…! Cost to buy. Running costs, fuel costs, bill tax, road tax, practicality.  Give me a good reason to run an ICE (internal combustion car) v electric especially for school runs! Thanks for watching!
4 notes · View notes
skillstopallmedia · 2 years ago
Text
Comparison – Audi Q4 e-tron vs BMW iX1: the ancestral rivalry continues in electric
Maxime Fontanier today confronts the new BMW iX1 xDrive30 with another high-end electric SUV. Present on the market since the summer of 2021, it is the Audi Q4 50 e-tron quattro, also equipped with all-wheel drive. Which of these luxurious models will be your favourite? The models tested In terms of dimensions, the winner is the Audi Q4 50 e-tron quattro, with a length of 4.59 m (+9 cm) for 1.87…
Tumblr media
View On WordPress
0 notes
adrenalineguide · 3 years ago
Text
Volkwagen’s latest bus has arrived, sort of
By Michael Hozjan
OK all you old aging hippies and all you young wanna be hippies, here’s the one you’ve been waiting for since you sold that splitty or bay window – before the prices skyrocketed past the stratosphere. I’m referring to off course the iconic VW Type 2 more commonly known as the Volkswagen Bus or Van.
Volkswagen finally pulled the wraps off the long awaited successor this week, and it looks like it was well worth it. Christened the ID. Buzz – hmmm – I can see the TV commercials now; Willie Nelson driving and Snoop Dog riding shotgun on their way to a show – or going a bit nostalgic with Cheech and Chong heading to Woodstock in a ’64 23-window and magically arrive at Max Yasgur’s farm– 53 years later in the Buzz- and with all the animated commercials hitting the air, how about the Freak Brothers cruising Haight-Ashbury with Fat Freddy’s cat in the back. No flying Mustangs in this San Fran clip.
On a serious note, Volkswagen decided the World Premier should be held in Hamburg, more specifically, Schuppen 52, the dock where thousands of buses and vans were shipped from, headed to customers around the world. The docks are now solar powered, which made the location even more appropriate as the ID.Buzz is fully electric.
Tumblr media
Above: The ID. Buzz looks great and will undoubtedly lead to imitators 
While we’ve been teased about its design studies for years, the end product clearly shows its ancestral linage. From the large VW crest mounted below the beltline to the short overhanging front and rear ends. Rounded lines with two-tone color scheme complete the trip down Nostalgia Boulevard. From there, although we’re not flying yet, we venture into the Jetson’s era with more gadgets and gizmos than this Baby Boomer needs, or wants.
The nitty gritty end of it is the ID. Buzz is all-electric, riding on Volkswagen AG’s Modular Electric Drive Kit (MEB), which it shares with the ID.4 as well as the Audi Q4 e-tron. Eventually over 80% of VW’s lineup will be based on variants of the platform.
Like the old Microbus, the motor is out back, but this time over the rear axle. It’s connected to an 84-kWh (77 kWh of which is usable) battery pack installed beneath the floor, to maximize space and aide in handling with a low center of gravity. It’s able to produce 201 hp. and 229 ft. lbs. of torque. No range figure was released, but estimates are around 400 kilometres on a full charge. The bus takes fast chargers that will allow you to go from 5 percent to 80 percent battery capacity in roughly half an hour.
There will be a short and long wheelbase versions, sadly the short wheelbase version which measures 2,988 mm (117.6 in) with an overall length of 4,712 mm (185.5 in.) and 1,937mm high (76.3”) will only be available in Europe because the Americans like to supersize everything we’ll get an extra 20 inches added an seating for seven. If you’re wondering, by comparison my old ’56 Kombi measured 2,400 mm (94.5 in.) between the axles with an overall length of 4,280 mm or 14’ 5” and 1.94m high (76”), which means the ID. Buzz is pretty close to the original.
There’s more good news as Volkswagen is building not only the people carrier but a cargo version also! Furthermore the body panels aft of the driver’s compartment are metal and not painted glass. Sliding doors on both sides ease rear seat ingress/egress as well as loading. There’s room for two European pallets in the back (1200 mm x 800mm).  
Tumblr media
Above: A far cry from the stark all metal dash of the early microbuses.  Large clean view ahead makes it look more like the bridge of the Enterprise than a minivan. Leather has been replaced by synthetic non-animal materials. 
Greening the ID. Buzz has obviously been VW’s main priority – as it should- and can be evidenced by replacing all the leather with a synthetic non-animal material and using recycled materials throughout. Even the paint is organically based.  
The ID.Buzz begins rolling off the assembly line later this year, with first deliveries due this autumn in Europe. I wish I could say that you can run down to your local VW dealer and pick one up next week but we’ll have to wait until 2023 for it to come on our shores.
There is talk of a camper version coming, will it be from Westfalia-Werke,we’ll have to wait and see. 
 As good looking as it is, sadly I very much doubt this latest iteration of the affordable microbus probably won’t feel very affordable judging by all the tech and connectivity. Look, I understand these days companies are compelled to compete with the Joneses down the street to offer all the latest high tech  and yes there’s even an autonomous ID. Buzz feature coming for those who still don’t understand the concept of driving but PLEASE oh PLEASE how about a bare bones people’s car.  Stay tuned…
1 note · View note
motorbuzz · 4 years ago
Text
The all-new Audi Q4 e-tron and Q4 Sportback e-tron pricing and specification
Tumblr media
New fully electric Audi SUV and Sportback models bring innovative design and technology, abundant space and 316-mile range potential to the compact class - New electric compact SUV and Sportback available to order now - Sport, S line, Edition 1 and Vorsprung specifications - SUV pricing starts from £40,750 OTR, Sportback from £42,250 OTR - Two battery sizes: 52 kWh (55 kWh gross*) and 77 kWh (82 kWh gross*) - 125kW fast charging can restore 80 miles of range in just 10 minutes - WLTP-certified driving range on a full charge of up to 316 miles - Q4 35 e-tron (170 PS) and Q4 40 e-tron (204 PS) versions with single motor and rear-wheel-drive - Q4 50 e-tron (299 PS) equipped with quattro drive via two motors
The all-new, all-electric Audi Q4 e-tron and Q4 Sportback e-tron are both on sale now, priced from £40,750 OTR and £42,250 OTR respectively.
Customer deliveries of the Q4 e-tron are under way, while the first Sportback customers are due to take delivery in October. Conveying the progressive design of the concept cars into series production with minimal alteration, the versatile all-rounders will be offered in the UK in conjunction with Sport, S line, Edition 1 and Vorsprung trim options, and with a choice of two battery variants and three drive configurations capable of WLTP-certified driving ranges of up to 316 miles (Q4 40 e-tron Sport). They will also provide unusually ample space in which to go the distance in a fully digital cabin that visually and technologically reflects the Q4 e-tron’s position at the forefront of automotive development. Its forward-looking specification incorporates fittingly ingenious technology, including a pioneering augmented reality head-up display connecting the virtual and real worlds in a totally new way. "The imminent arrival of the Q4 Sportback e-tron into our showrooms is the next crucial step in our bold electrification plan," commented Director of Audi UK Andrew Doyle. "Both the SUV and Sportback variants bring striking Audi design, impressive packaging, and attractive price points to a new segment of the market. Rapid charging capability and over 300 emission-free miles on a single charge will help ensure our transition from ICE to electric power is a smooth one for our customers." The Audi Q4 e-tron UK OTR pricing Audi Q4 35 e-tron Sport Audi Q4 35 e-tron S line Audi Q4 35 e-tron Edition 1 Audi Q4 35 e-tron Vorsprung Audi Q4 40 e-tron Sport Audi Q4 40 e-tron S line  Audi Q4 40 e-tron Edition 1  Audi Q4 40 e-tron Vorsprung Audi Q4 50 e-tron quattro Sport Audi Q4 50 e-tron quattro S line Audi Q4 50 e-tron quattro Edition 1 Audi Q4 50 e-tron quattro Vorsprung£40,750 £42,850 £46,945 £54,450 £44,990 £47,090 £51,185 £58,690 £51,370 £53,470 £57,565 £65,070The Audi Q4 Sportback e-tron UK OTR pricing Audi Q4 Sportback 35 e-tron Sport Audi Q4 Sportback 35 e-tron S line Audi Q4 Sportback 35 e-tron Edition 1 Audi Q4 Sportback 35 e-tron Vorsprung Audi Q4 Sportback 40 e-tron Sport Audi Q4 Sportback 40 e-tron S line  Audi Q4 Sportback 40 e-tron Edition 1 Audi Q4 Sportback 40 e-tron Vorsprung Audi Q4 Sportback 50 e-tron quattro Sport Audi Q4 Sportback 50 e-tron quattro S line  Audi Q4 Sportback 50 e-tron quattro Edition 1 Audi Q4 Sportback 50 e-tron quattro Vorsprung£42,250 £44,350 £48,445 £55,950 £46,960 £48,590 £52,685 £60,190 £52,870 £54,970 £59,065 £66,750 Audi’s next step: the exterior design With the Q4 e-tron and the Q4 Sportback e-tron, Audi is introducing the next step in its design language for electric models. Like the 2019 concept cars that they so closely resemble, the new compact SUVs boast striking proportions accentuated by their short front overhangs and large wheels emphasised by muscular blisters, and by a surface treatment that is clear and pared back but also intersected by super-precise, high definition lines. In the Audi Q4 Sportback e-tron, the especially low coupé-style roofline ends in an expressively designed rear where the spoiler sits deep on the two-part window. As is customary for Audi the progressive design gives appropriate priority to functionality and aerodynamics: The Q4 e-tron achieves a drag coefficient of 0.28, and the Sportback gets to an even lower figure, with a drag coefficient of 0.26. A key contributor to these impressive figures is the main section of the bodies, with their glasshouses drawn in sharply towards the rear. The adjustable cooling air inlet in front of the radiator and compressor is another important factor. Supplied by the central lower air inlet, its electric louvre is opened if the major assemblies require cool air, such as when the vehicle is charging, but remains closed in the majority of situations to minimise energy losses caused by air flow through the narrow cooling ducts, adding around four miles to the overall driving range. Three-dimensional spoilers in front of the front wheels also optimise the airflow, adding almost nine miles to the range, and a partial covering for the control arms of the rear axle gives another boost of just over two miles. Detailed solutions, on which the Audi aerodynamics experts have worked closely with the designers, provide further gains in range. At the front, the narrow vertical bars below the headlights channel the airstream smoothly along the vehicle’s side, resulting in a three-mile range uplift, and a minute step on the exterior mirror housings known as the turbulator edge allows the airflow to swirl in a targeted way, which is good for another mile. The 19-inch Aero wheels with their flat designs also facilitate low-loss air flow, notching up an additional three miles, and even the tailgate seal plays its part. Designed to handle the pressure conditions generated by the roof edge spoiler, it adds just over two more miles to the range. On the Q4 Sportback e-tron, the spoiler sits much lower on the split and steeply raked rear window, and as the area in which the air swirls as it comes off the vehicle is restricted to the zone beneath the spoiler that area is significantly smaller than in the Q4 e-tron. This not only highlights the unique design of the SUV coupé, but also enhances its range by around 7 miles while also reducing the lift on the rear. Leading lights – LED technology with new variable light signatures LED headlights are of course standard throughout the new Q4 e-tron and Q4 Sportback e-tron ranges. In Edition 1 and Vorsprung versions these include Matrix LED technology, which is also available for Sport and S line models as an optional extra. In the Q4 e-tron models the Matrix LED units with their 16 individually actuated LEDs not only offer enhanced and even more precisely targeted illumination, but also feature variable digital light signatures that represent a world first for the brand: The driver can switch between four signatures via the MMI touch operating system. Where Matrix LED lights are installed, a light strip also extends for the full width of the rear, beginning as a fine line in the centre that splits into separate segments at each end. Each individual segment is modelled as a three-dimensional body, resulting in a particularly expressive light sculpture inspired by intricate electric circuits and bearing the Four Rings radiating in signature red as its central detail. Distinctive from start to finish – colours, wheels and distinguishing features A choice of eight paint finishes can be specified for the new Q4 e-tron and Q4 Sportback e-tron, including the new metallic shade aurora violet which has until now been reserved for Audi Sport models. In Sport versions 19-inch Graphite grey alloy wheels with a special ‘aero’ design that contributes to overall efficiency amply fill the wheel arches, which along with the lower section of the bumper and the diffusor are painted in contrasting metallic Manhattan grey. A gloss package also accentuates the side windows, which are privacy tinted at the rear in S line models and above. In common with all members of the Audi family S line models also stand out through their exclusive front and rear styling treatment, which here includes additional chrome elements that lend the octagonal Audi Singleframe synonymous with Q models its own distinctive look. Larger 20-inch alloy wheels also work in favour of road presence in S line and Edition 1 models, the latter gaining even more through a full-body paint finish in a choice of four colours and a black styling package that adds dark accents throughout. The black styling package is also a feature of the top-tier Vorsprung models with their even more striking 21-inch wheels. One vehicle for everything and everyone: everyday e-mobility for every situation On the strength of their versatility, the Audi Q4 e-tron and the Q4 Sportback e-tron will integrate seamlessly into everyday life. Within their 4.59-metre footprint they offer a level of space which exceeds existing class standards and is in fact more closely comparable with the full-size SUV class. The spacious feel isn’t confined to the front seats – passengers in the rear also benefit from generous legroom thanks in part to the bespoke architecture of the modular electric drive system (MEB) on which the compact electric SUVs are based, which ensures that a centre tunnel is no longer required. Storage space also abounds, with around 25 litres of capacity available throughout the cabin, including particularly useful bottle holders integrated in the upper section of the doors that can hold bottles of up to one litre in size safely and within easy reach. The luggage compartment accessible via the powered tailgate which is standard for all variants also offers more space than is generally found in the compact class, and actually bears closer comparison with a midsize SUV: Depending on the positioning of the rear seat backs, the volume of the luggage compartment is 520 to 1,490 litres in the Q4 e-tron and 535 to 1,460 litres in the Sportback. The compact layout of the drive units, even in the quattro models, has conferred another usability advantage on the new electric SUVs. It has allowed the developers to move their longitudinal suspension cross-members further towards their centre points, creating space for large wheel arches which in turn enable the wheels to turn more freely. In the variants with rear-wheel drive, the turning circle of the Q4 e-tron and the Q4 Sportback e-tron measures just 10.2 metres. With their ground clearance of approximately 18 centimetres, both models also perform well on rougher terrain. Quick HPC charging: enough power for about 80 miles in ten minutes in ideal conditions Quick and easy charging is another strength that ensures daily use of the Q4 e-tron and Q4 Sportback e-tron is as undemanding as possible. Depending on version, they feature a 52 kWh or 77 kWh battery which can be charged at HPC (high-power charging) stations at a charging capacity of up to 100 or up to 125 kW respectively. At 125 kW, and in ideal conditions, the battery can achieve an 80 percent state of charge from a 5 percent starting point in 38 minutes. WLTP testing has confirmed that the Q4 40 e-tron**, which uses the larger battery, can recharge enough electricity – again in ideal conditions – to cover a distance of about 80 miles (WLTP) in around ten minutes, and can achieve a range of up to 316 miles. Using the myAudi app, owners can activate charging remotely using a smartphone. The app also provides access to the comfort remote preconditioning system, which enables remote adjustment of the cabin temperature and seat heating functions to ensure that the cabin climate is always comfortable well before a journey begins. Electric motors and electric all-wheel-drive At the entry-level, the Q4 35 e-tron and the Q4 Sportback 35 e-tron use the compact battery with its net energy content of 52 kWh (55 kWh gross*), and combine this with an electric motor offering an output of 125 kW (170 PS) and torque of 310 Nm. In both body variants, this is sufficient for 9.0-second 0-62mph acceleration, a governed 99mph top speed and a WLTP-certified range of up to 208 miles on a full charge in the SUV (Sportback range data to be confirmed). Range of up to 316 miles: the Q4 40 e-tron The Audi Q4 40 e-tron is equipped with the larger battery, which stores a net 77 kWh of energy (82 kWh gross*). The electric motor generates 150 kW (204 PS) and 310 Nm here, reducing the 0-62mph sprint time to 8.5 seconds in the run up to a top speed that is also governed at 99mph. One charge is enough for up to 316 miles of range in the SUV (Sportback range data to be confirmed).   Top model with two electric motors: the Q4 50 e-tron quattro At the top of the range from a drivetrain perspective, the Q4 50 e-tron quattro and Q4 Sportback 50 e-tron quattro also use the 77 kWh battery (82 kWh gross*), and here it supplies an electric motor on each axle that contributes to a maximum output of 220 kW (299 PS) and 460 Nm (339.3 lb-ft) of torque, while also delivering the advantages of all-wheel-drive. The rear motor generates 150 kW (204 PS) and 310 Nm, and the front 80 kW (109 PS) and 162 Nm. In the interest of efficiency, the motor on the front axle is engaged only when high power or maximum traction are needed, in which case it is activated in just a few hundredths of a second, and in many cases predictively even before the car begins to noticeably understeer or oversteer. Both motors keep reserves available for certain driving situations, and as a result the sum of their individual outputs exceeds the drive system’s quoted total . Both model variants tackle the 0-62mph increment in 6.2 seconds and continue to a top speed of 111mph. Driving ranges of circa 295 miles are expected for UK versions of both models subject to confirmation following WLTP testing.   For maximum efficiency: coast or recuperate? When the Audi Q4 e-tron is on the move in gear D (drive) and the driver releases the accelerator pedal, the drive system switches to coasting mode. Both electric motors – or the rear motor in the rear-wheel drive models – run freely and largely without energy. Coasting takes priority, because it is the most efficient, but if the driver prefers recuperation they can switch to gear B (brake), in which recuperation is almost always prioritised when coasting. If “dynamic” mode is set in the standard Audi drive select dynamic handling system, recuperation also takes place in gear D but at a slightly reduced rate. The shift paddles mounted on the steering wheel in Edition 1 and Vorsprung versions and optionally available for all others enable the driver to select three different manual recuperation levels in position D. Aternatively, automatic recuperation is configurable via the MMI system. When braking, the rear electric motor performs the deceleration alone in the majority of everyday driving situations. The quattro models can brake electrically at up to almost 0.3 g, equivalent to a recuperation performance of up to 145 kW. The electric brake booster only activates the hydraulic wheel brakes as well if greater deceleration is required. The transition is almost unnoticeable, and recuperation remains active almost until the vehicle is at a standstill. The quattro models prioritise recuperation on the rear axle but also use the front electric motor in certain situations. Stable temperature conditions: more power when driving and charging State-of-the-art thermal management based around two cooling circuits also ensures energy is used to best effect in the compact electric SUVs. The thermal management system aims to get the battery up to the ideal temperature range of around 30 degrees Celsius quickly after it is started and to keep it there until the end of the journey. This ensures that its full power – and therefore the power of the entire drive system – is available after a short time even in extremely cold conditions. Thanks to the stable thermal conditions, the driver can also call on it repeatedly or charge the battery at an HPC charging terminal with high output. Even more efficiency: optional heat pump For even more stringent energy management a highly efficient heat pump is also available as an option for all versions of the Q4 e-tron and the Q4 Sportback e-tron. It rapidly heats and cools the interior using the thermal losses from the electric components and the temperature of the outside air. It uses eco-friendly CO2 as a refrigerant, which flows through the circuit at high pressure. The heat pump can reduce losses in range caused by usage of the climate control system, especially in winter. Its strengths come to the fore on long drives. Multi-faceted – the suspension The high-voltage batteries are located between the axles beneath the passenger compartment, at the lowest point of the car, which ensures a low centre of gravity and a near 50:50 weight distribution ratio, favouring handling. The control systems for the drive system and suspension work closely together to ensure that driving is safe, enjoyable and comfortable at all times. The front axle of the compact electric SUVs features a classic MacPherson strut layout, and is complemented by a compact five-link design reminiscent of the larger Audi models at the rear. As with the front axle, this is mounted on a subframe and optimised through the use of lightweight aluminium for a number of key components. Mounted behind the large 19-inch to 21-inch wheels are powerful brakes with disc diameters of between 330 and 358 millimetres depending on motor output, and these work with extra-low-wear, low-maintenance drum brakes at the rear. The drums reduce the risk of corrosion, because in a purely electric drivetrain the wheel brakes are used less frequently in everyday driving – most deceleration is performed by the electric motor in the rear, which converts kinetic energy to electrical energy in the process. Sport settings and damper control S line and Edition 1 versions of the Q4 e-tron and Q4 Sportback e-tron are equipped as standard with a sport suspension featuring particularly driver-focused spring and damper settings that also lower the body by 15 millimetres. Along with the entry level Sport model, these versions are also available with a suspension system with damper control. Included as part of the standard Vorsprung specification, its control unit manages the characteristics of the dampers in line with the driving situation at five-millisecond intervals by regulating the oil flow, ensuring that they are always primed for optimal performance in fast-changing road and driving conditions. The electronic dynamic handling system managing the adaptive dampers also controls the brake interventions of the wheel-selective torque control, where it works closely together with the ESC stabilisation system. This aims to harmonise the actual behaviour of the car with a digital target model so that the transverse dynamics and driving safety are always at the optimum level. Read the full article
0 notes
perksofwifi · 4 years ago
Text
Audi A6 E-Tron Concept First Look: A Luxury Sedan Goes EV
It’s official: Audi is electrifying the A6. The German luxury automaker has just revealed the Audi A6 E-Tron Concept, a close preview of the coming 2024 Audi A6 E-Tron, at the Shanghai auto show. While Audi’s first serious electric-vehicle efforts have been the low-volume E-Tron SUV and E-Tron GT fastback sedan, this sleek-looking A6 EV (along with the recently unveiled 2022 Audi Q4 E-Tron and Q4 E-Tron Sportback crossovers) is a sign of mainstream things to come for the four-ring brand.
Very Close to Production
While the A6 E-Tron currently enjoys status as a concept, Audi reports what you see is “95 percent” production intent. The sleek new sheetmetal shows off the latest evolution of Audi’s design language; that includes the new “inverted face” front end, so named because it inverts the traditional dark grille area and body-color front bumper treatment of internal-combustion vehicles. This signature will make its way to all of its future electric models, we’re told. The A6 E-Tron also features headlights with customizable rows of LEDs that Audi says customers can configure to display a personal daytime-running-light signature—local regulations permitting, of course.
In profile, the most striking aspect of the concept car is that it looks more like an A7 than it does an A6. Credit the fastback roofline chosen for its style and aerodynamic profile, which flows smartly rearward to tuck neatly under the trunklid spoiler. The rear end’s signature touch is a full-length OLED taillamp complete with an Audi logo that functions as a center high-mount brake light. The slipperiness isn’t just visual: The A6 E-Tron concept has an impressively low 0.22 cD, just 0.02 higher than the, uh, unconventional-looking Mercedes-Benz EQS.
Other unique flourishes include welcome lights that double as door-opening warnings to pedestrians, and turn signals that can project arrows on to the ground. Audis are known for their interior quality and style as much as anything else, but we’ll all have to remain patient regarding what’s inside the A6 E-Tron concept: Its interior will be revealed at a later date. While this electric sedan shares its overall dimensions with the current gas-powered A6, the automaker says that the A6 E-Tron concept has more passenger space due to the inherent packaging advantages of an electric powertrain.
What Platform Does the A6 E-Tron Concept Use?
Underpinning the sleek A6 EV is a new platform co-developed with Porsche. Dubbed Premium Platform Electric, or PPE, it will underpin all electric Audis—as well as Porsches and Bentleys—for the foreseeable future. This modular platform supports single-motor rear-drive and dual-motor all-wheel-drive powertrains, and is capable of up to 270-kW charging speeds. That’s about 80 kW less than initially promised, but still 20 kW more than the quickest Tesla Supercharger. Although the A6 E-Tron concept is the first vehicle unveiled on the new platform, it won’t be first to market—that honor will belong to the yet to be revealed 2023 Audi Q6 E-Tron.
The production A6 E-Tron will be available with rear- or all-wheel drive, likely with single- or dual motors. The concept exemplifies the latter layout, its two motors producing a total of 469 horsepower and 590 lb-ft of torque, splitting the performance difference between the current Audi S6 and RS6. Unlike the E-Tron GT, we expect the A6 E-Tron Concept to have a single-speed automatic transmission instead of a two-speed unit. In terms of acceleration, Audi says its concept can accelerate from 0–60 mph in under four seconds.
Thanks to its 100-kWh battery pack, the A6 E-Tron Concept claims more than 435 miles on a charge—albeit as measured on the rather optimistic European WLTP test. For comparison purposes, the 2021 Audi E-Tron SUV is WLTP-rated at 248 miles of range, but its EPA rating is 222 miles. Expect the production version of the A6 E-Tron to score north of 300 miles on the EPA cycle when it goes on sale here in 2024. Assuming you can find an Electrify America station capable of charging at that 270-kW max, 10 minutes of charging is said to add 186 miles of range. Juicing the battery pack from 5 to 80 percent requires as little as 25 minutes on said charger, according to Audi.
When can I buy an A6 E-Tron? How much will it cost?
Audi will reveal the 2024 Audi A6 E-Tron production car late next year, before sliding it into dealerships sometime in 2023. Pricing, as you’d expect, is far from set, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see the single-motor A6 E-Tron start around $55,000 before government incentives. In the meantime, the current gas-burning A6 will soldier on for a while, receiving regular updates even as it’s joined—and no doubt eventually supplanted—by its all-new electric sibling.
The post Audi A6 E-Tron Concept First Look: A Luxury Sedan Goes EV appeared first on MotorTrend.
https://www.motortrend.com/cars/audi/a6-e-tron/2024/audi-a6-e-tron-concept-first-look-review/ visto antes em https://www.motortrend.com
0 notes
rakeshreddym · 5 years ago
Text
07/09/2020 News Alerts about Cars Industry
07/09/2020 News Alerts about Cars Industry
Tumblr media
First picture of Tesla Model Y and Ford Mustang Mach-E side by side
The first picture of a Tesla Model Y and Ford Mustang Mach-E side by side has emerged and this gives us a quick size comparison in the process.
Automakers have been aggressively electrifying the crossover/small SUV segment.
In the US, the Tesla Model Y and Ford Mustang Mach-E are expected to be two leading premium electric vehicles in the segment.
Source: https://electrek.co/2020/07/07/tesla-model-y-ford-mustang-mach-e-picture-side-by-side/
Watch A Dodge Challenger SRT Hellcat Redeye Hit 195 MPH
We live in the golden age of power, where cars such as the Dodge Challenger SRT Hellcat Redeye, and Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 offer supercar levels of performance at more than half the cost of an Italian exotic. It is a good time to be alive indeed. The Redeye is one of our favorite American performance cars and starting at only $72,295 (MSRP) it delivers a knockout punch, but laying down such immense power takes skill and patience.
Source: https://carbuzz.com/news/watch-a-dodge-challenger-srt-hellcat-redeye-hit-195-mph
The 7 Weirdest Cars Ever Made by Chrysler, Dodge, Plymouth and Jeep
Talking about great cars (and discussing what makes them great) is always fun, but we at Gear Patrol also enjoy looking back at the vehicles that were downright weird. Not the worst cars –though that can be fun, too — but rather, the strangest, most eccentric vehicles that carmakers actually went to the trouble and expensive of developing and selling. Many of said cars remain absolute head scratchers, even with decades of hindsight.
Source: https://gearpatrol.com/2020/07/07/weirdest-chrysler-cars-jeeps/
Mitsubishi Motors South Africa restarts sales
just-auto gives its paid members access to the very best automotive market coverage.
And now there’s, our premium membership that gives you exclusive component forecast data, company profiles and extended news coverage – just for premium members.
Source: https://www.just-auto.com/news/mitsubishi-motors-south-africa-restarts-at-full-throttle_id196502.aspx
Mercedes-Benz Reports Q2 Sales of 59,461 Vehicles
ATLANTA–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Mercedes-Benz USA (MBUSA) today reported Q2 sales of 59,461 Mercedes-Benz models. Additionally, Mercedes-Benz Vans recorded Q2 sales of 10,760, bringing MBUSA to a grand total of 70,221 vehicles for the quarter, a decrease of 17.2% over the comparable period last year.
Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200708005560/en/Mercedes-Benz-Reports-Q2-Sales-59461-Vehicles
Mahindra Offering Benefits Of Up To Rs 3.05 Lakh On SUVs In July 2020
Mahindra is yet to cross its usual five-digit sales figure in the unlock phase. Since March, the Indian carmaker has just managed to sell a quarter of its usual monthly shipment of around 15,000 units, while its arch-rival Tata crossed five-digit sales figure at around 11,500 in June.
Source: https://www.cardekho.com/india-car-news/mahindra-offering-benefits-of-up-to-rs-305-lakh-on-suvs-in-july-2020-25780.htm
Jaguar Needs To Be Ambitious, Embrace Luxury, And Move Upmarket To Thrive
Jaguar’s fabled history means it has the potential to become an upmarket luxury brand, placing it just below the likes of Bentley and Rolls Royce with lower sales but much bigger profits.
with lower sales but much bigger profits.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2020/07/08/jaguar-needs-to-be-ambitious-embrace-luxury-and-move-upmarket-to-thrive/#3a4c50fa393b
Lotus Plans To Obliterate The Bugatti Chiron’s 12.4-Second 0-322 KPH Time
The Lotus Evija, the 2,000-horsepower electric flagship that will pioneer the next-generation of sports cars from the automaker, is not targeting low-speed acceleration. Lotus wants its car to beat the supercars where they thrive — closing in on 322 km/h as fast as possible.
Source: https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/07/lotus-plans-to-obliterate-the-bugatti-chirons-12-4-second-0-322-kph-time/
Maserati showcases Nettuno: an F1-based engine for road cars
The new engine will make its debut under the hood of the MC20 sportscar, which will be presented during the ‘MMXX: The time to be audacious’ event on September 9-10 in Modena
Source: https://www.evoindia.com/top-news/maserati-showcases-nettuno-an-f1-based-engine-for-road-cars
Porsche is transforming its Leipzig factory to produce only electric vehicles Porsche has fast-tracked extension of its Leipzig facility to get ready to produce electric vehicles. The external work on the new body shop for the third-generation Macan, the first fully electric version, is now complete. The next step is to set up the plant inside the building.
Source: https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/news/porsche-is-transforming-its-leipzig-factory-to-produce-only-electric-vehicles-41594185598190.html
Rolls-Royce Wraith Kryptos unveiled: A unique secret message hidden in each Collection Car
Rolls-Royce has unveiled its new generation of Collection Car; one that brings an intriguing and entertaining challenge for the buyer. Who will crack the code? And what answers will the code bring? Only time will tell. Or will it?
Source: https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/car-news/rolls-royce-wraith-kryptos-unveiled-a-unique-secret-message-hidden-in-each-collection-car/2017361/
A custom car company makes $250,000 Land Rover Defenders with Corvette V8 engines — check out the Twisted NA-V8
The popularity of the Hummer H1, the Lamborghini the Mercedes-Benz G-Wagen, and the Land Rover Defender makes plain that there’s an appetite for land-dominating and truck-like SUVs.
Source: https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/a-custom-car-company-makes-250000-land-rover-defenders-with-corvette-v8-engines-x2014-check-out-the-twisted-na-v8/slidelist/76856393.cms
Lamborghini teases its ‘mystery car’ ahead of launch on July 8
Lamborghini is all set to drive in its new hyper car on July 8. Ahead of the launch, the luxury sports carmaker took to social media to tease the upcoming ‘mystery car’.
Source: https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/cars/lamborghini-teases-its-mystery-car-ahead-of-launch-on-july-8-41594113807685.html
Audi unveils Q4 Sportback e-tron concept
NEW DELHI: Audi unveiled the Q4 e-tron coupe variant as a concept car. The Audi Q4 e-tron concept was first showcased by the German automaker at the 2019 Geneva Motor Show in a bid to give visitors a taste of their first compact electric SUV. The new Q4 Sportback e-tron is the second model in this line-up.
Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto/cars/audi-unveils-q4-sportback-e-tron-concept/articleshow/76848849.cms
Connected cars next big thing in India: Kia Seltos, MG Hector top gainers
Kia Motors recently sold in excess of 50,000 connected cars including the Carnival and Seltos while MG claims to have retailed more than 20,000 internet-enabled cars in less than a year.
Source: https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/car-news/connected-cars-next-big-thing-in-india-kia-seltos-mg-hector-top-gainers-embedded-sim-internet-price-specs/2017454/
New Honda WR-V: The cheapest car with sunroof in India
2020 Honda WR-V is the cheapest car in India to get sunroof feature. The SUV offers this provision on the VX MT trim which costs ₹9.7 lakh for the petrol variant while WR-V diesel VX MT costs ₹11 lakh
Source: https://www.timesnownews.com/auto/car-news/article/new-honda-wr-v-the-cheapest-car-with-sunroof-in-india/618121
Strike warning for Nissan as row grows over pension scheme changes
The possibility of the first ever strike at Nissan’s Sunderland plant has been raised after a row over pensions escalated.
The automotive giant has proposed closing its defined benefit pension scheme, saying it is unsustainable.
Source: https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/strike-warning-nissan-row-grows-18563230
Ferrari Just Lost The Trademark Rights To Its Most Iconic Car.
Italian super car maker Ferrari has lost the trademark rights to the world’s most expensive car and arguably the most iconic car in its storied history, the 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2020/07/08/ferrari-just-lost-the-trademark-rights-to-its-most-iconic-car/#53d5f5d37993
Tesla’s Musk approaches a $1.8 billion bonanza
(Reuters) – Tesla Inc’s blistering stock rally is putting Chief Executive Elon Musk in reach of a payday potentially worth $1.8 billion, his second jackpot from the electric car maker in about two months.
Source: https://in.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-musk/teslas-musk-approaches-a-1-8-billion-bonanza-idINKBN2492OY
Renault cars offers July 2020 | Benefits available on Renault Kwid, Duster, and Triber
Even though automakers in India are largely back to work after the temporary hiatus brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, sales are yet to return to normal. And when we say ‘normal’, we mean pre-COVID-19 levels. And to help them get there, companies have relied on various incentives for car buyers, especially discounts and benefits.
Source: https://www.timesnownews.com/videos/times-drive/car-news/renault-cars-offers-july-2020-benefits-available-on-renault-kwid-duster-and-triber/66565
Volvo Cars Tech Fund invests in blockchain technology firm Circulor
Volvo Cars has made an investment in blockchain technology firm Circulor through the Volvo Cars Tech Fund, the company’s venture capital investment arm.
Source: https://www.automotiveworld.com/news-releases/volvo-cars-tech-fund-invests-in-blockchain-technology-firm-circulor/
BMW India opens pre-owned car facility in Bengaluru
BMW Group India has opened a BMW Premium Selection (BPS) facility in Bengaluru and it will be under Navnit Motors.
Source: https://www.deccanherald.com/business/dh-wheels/bmw-india-opens-pre-owned-car-facility-in-bengaluru-858559.html
Refreshed Lexus LS revealed with new technology
Lexus has updated its LS flagship saloon, with a focus on improved ride, comfort and enhanced technology.
The refreshed fifth-generation saloon goes on sale in Japan later this year and is expected to be offered in the UK, although Lexus has yet to confirm markets outside of Japan.
Source: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/refreshed-lexus-ls-revealed-new-technology
Confirmed New Car Launches From Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai
India’s two largest passenger car manufacturers, Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai, have several new models in the pipeline that will roll out by the end of this year.
Source: https://www.indiacarnews.com/news/confirmed-new-car-launches-from-maruti-suzuki-and-hyundai-40691/
Fiat celebrates 63 years of iconic 500 car by launching a virtual museum
The first generation Fiat 500 hatchback was introduced to the world back in 1957. To celebrate the iconic car’s 63 years of existence, the company has inaugurated a virtual museum dedicated to the past, present and future of the 500.
Source: https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/news/fiat-celebrates-63-years-of-iconic-500-car-by-launching-a-virtual-museum-41594109679896.html
Maruti Suzuki moved 6.70 lakh cars by rail in last 6 years; green mode helps save fuel, cost
The country’s largest passenger vehicles maker Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) on Wednesday said it has transported over 6.70 lakh cars through the Indian Railways in the past six years, witnessing a CAGR of over 18 per cent.
Source: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/maruti-suzuki-moved-670-lakh-cars-by-rail-in-last-6-years-green-mode-helps-save-fuel-cost/article32019243.ece
Volkswagen showcases the new Tiguan
The third-gen Tiguan has been thoroughly reworked, with new exteriors as well as interiors and electronic suite, and the addition of crucial driver-assistance tech
Source: https://www.evoindia.com/news/car-news-1/volkswagen-showcases-the-new-tiguan
New Skoda Octavia VRS offered as plug-in hybrid for the first time
Skoda has confirmed a trio of power trains will be available for new Octavia VRS buyers to choose from when the car goes on sale in the Autumn – including a plug-in hybrid (PHEV).
Source: https://www.am-online.com/news/new-car-news/car-model-news/2020/07/07/new-skoda-octavia-vrs-offered-with-three-powertrains
There is no change in our product launch schedule or capex plan: Kia Motors
There is no change in Kia Motor‘s product launch schedule or the capital expenditure plan, said the company, at at time when many auto majors have deferred investments and launches due to corona virus pandemic.
Source: https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/there-is-no-change-in-our-product-launch-schedule-or-capex-plan-kia-motors-120070800131_1.html
0 notes
hostingnewsfeed · 6 years ago
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
lazilysillyprince · 6 years ago
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
smartwebhostingblog · 6 years ago
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
volvosaigonvn · 5 years ago
Link
https://ift.tt/3h7Z9u2 https://ift.tt/3dFTTM6 https://ift.tt/2yUBZG5 https://ift.tt/3c35a7m https://ift.tt/2AbE8xi https://ift.tt/2Y7VjYT Xe Volvo XC60 - 0908135315 https://ift.tt/2DAPjRT Comparison: BMW iX3 vs Audi Q4 Sportback e-tron Concept https://ift.tt/3eV8ALs #xevolvoxc60 #xevolvoxc60_0908135315
0 notes
autobahnaudivolkswagen · 6 years ago
Text
The New Audi Q4 E-Tron All-Electric Affordable SUV
Audi’s all-electric lineup just got larger. With the new Q4 E-tron SUV, released in concept form at the 2019 Geneva Motor Show, Audi looks to strengthen its presence in the – sure to be crowded – all-electric SUV market.
Scheduled to begin production in late 2020, the Q4, Audi’s 5th electric vehicle is a scaled down version of its E-tron SUV series with the same qualities and efficiencies you’ve come to expect from Audi craftsmanship.
autobahn-performance.com takes a closer look at the new Audi Q4 E-tron’s specifications, interior, exterior, and performance.
Audi Q4 E-tron all-electric SUV Specs
As Audi looks to strengthen its presence in the all-electric car market, its recent unveiling of the Q4 is a scaled down version of its already successful E-tron all-electric SUV. The following is a comparison of the two electric versions:
  Audi E-tron
Audi Q4 E-tron
Length
16.08 feet
15 feet
Height
5.46 feet
5.25 feet
Width (with mirrors)
7.19 feet
6.25 feet
Battery Capacity
95 kWh
82kWh
Miles (per full charge)
160
280
Speed
0-60 in 5.5 seconds
0-62 in 6.3 seconds
The Audi Q4 e-tron is built on Volkswagen’s ‘Modulare E-Antriebs-Baukasten,’ which translates to ‘modular electric drive matrix.’ VW is wagering heavily that its MEB platform will serve as the foundation for the 10 million electric vehicles it projects to sell.
Intended to be an alternative to the Mercedes EQC, the new Audi Q4 E-tron is expected to hit the market in late 2020 with an estimated price tag of between $72,500 and $73,000.
Audi Q4 E-tron Interior
Staying true to the brand’s tradition of interior comfort, practicality, and class, you can expect to find the following in the Q4 E-tron:
• Upper-class plastic molded interior. • Floor covering made from recycled material. • Double-stitched Alcantara covered seats. • Spacious interior with extra front and rear legroom. • More storage space due to the lack of engine components found in gas-powered vehicles. • Upper section of the cabin clad in lighter materials for an airier feel. • One 12-inch display behind the steering wheel. (speedometer, gauges, indicators, etc.) • One 12-inch display in the center of the console. (navigation, stereo system, etc.) • Head-up display able to project directional and other information within your line-of-sight of the road. • In-car Amazon Alexa integration. • Smartphone integration compatible with Apple and Android devices. • High definition digital instrument display. • Amplified driving experience through connectivity with the myAudi app.
The Q4 features, as outlined above, spent years in development with attention being given to every interior and exterior detail.
Audi Q4 E-tron Exterior
At first glance, the Q4 may appear to be like any other Audi SUV, but a closer look reveals it to be more similar to the company’s e-tron electric car, given these features:
• Sealed grille for better aerodynamic performance. • 22-inch alloy e-tron style rims. • Identical e-tron lower body features. • Rear light bar illuminated in sequence when the vehicle is locked or unlocked. • Solar Sky paint – with reflective properties – that helps keep the cabin cooler, while conserving battery life. • And lest we forget, the illuminated e-tron insignia.
Whether for aerodynamic purposes or for aesthetic appeal, the exterior detail of every Audi model is heavily scrutinized and tested for its practicality and efficiency. As noted, the all-electric e-tron parades an attractive and technologically forward exterior that many are finding appealing.
Audi Q4 E-tron Performance
When the Q4 comes to market in 2020, it will likely be offered with a variety of power options. The concept car unveiled at the Geneva Motor Show is equipped with the following specifications (Nm means Newton meter and is a measurement of torque):
• Rear 150kW motor with 310Nm of torque. • Front 75Kw motor with 150Nm of torque. • Both motors allow the Q4 to accelerate from 0 to 62mph in 6.3 seconds and reach a maximum speed of 112mph. • Driven moderately, the Q4 can get up to 280 miles on a single charge. • With a clever four-wheel drive system, the vehicle is able to send power to whichever tire can best utilize it. • The 1,124Lb battery pack sits low in the car’s floor, giving the Q4 perfect weight distribution and low center of gravity.
With such features, the Audi Q4 e-tron is much more dynamic that it may appear to be, and surprisingly agile when reining in auto body lean and turning corners.
Audi Q4 E-tron Luxury and Practicality
The e-tron series is Audi’s response to their parent company – Volkswagen Group’s push to electrify their entire lineup by 2030. The Q4 is Audi’s 5th electric vehicle, and it flaunts all of the qualities and efficiencies expected from Audi craftsmanship.
In this article, you discovered the Q4 e-tron’s specifications, interior and exterior features, and performance abilities.
As the auto industry turns the corner from combustion to electric propulsion, it’s no surprise that automakers are raising the bar with convenience, luxury, and dependability. Visit audiusa.com for more information on the e-tron line of vehicles.
Sources: https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron https://www.gims.swiss/premieres/world-premieres/q4-e-tron-concept https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/5/18251528/audi-q4-etron-ev-concept-geneva-auto-show-2019
Photo Credit: © Geneva International Motor Show © The Verge
https://plus.google.com/113049509479264030696
Autobahn Performance
6476 Buford Hwy Norcross, GA 30071 (770) 409-8288
The post The New Audi Q4 E-Tron All-Electric Affordable SUV appeared first on http://autobahn-performance.com
0 notes
hostingnewsfeed · 6 years ago
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
smartwebhostingblog · 6 years ago
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes