#Peso Global Sustainability Growth Fund

[beingjellybeans]

Seizing bright opportunities with Sun Life's Sustainability-Driven VUL Fund

In a world where conscious investing is on the rise, Sun Life of Canada (Philippines), Inc. has unveiled an exciting opportunity for socially conscious investors. Introducing the Peso Global Sustainability Growth Fund, Sun Life’s first-ever sustainability-driven VUL (Variable Universal Life) equity fund. This fund aims to generate long-term capital appreciation by investing in global funds that…

[theculturedmarxist]

by Mark Sobel in Washington

Tue 26 Mar 2019

While the world focuses on the US and China, Britain's exit from the European Union, G3 monetary policy and Europe's doldrums, little attention is being paid to economic and financial developments in Latin America. Yet, change is afoot. The International Monetary Fund is stepping up activities in the region.

Argentina is the Fund's largest engagement, with around half of a $57bn programme already disbursed. The country is undergoing, by necessity, a tough fiscal austerity drive. President Mauricio Macri's administration, in hindsight, far too gradually restrained borrowing in its early days, only to see Argentina hit by adverse shifts in global market conditions, jeopardising market access. Recession ensued, but the economy is beginning to show signs of growth. Inflation, however, remains persistent, and the central bank just raised interest rates amid a renewed decline in the peso. Argentina is keeping its programme on track.

On 11 March the IMF board approved a $4.2bn extended programme for Ecuador. The previous Rafael Correa-led government spent excessively amid oil price declines and a rising dollar, undermining competitiveness and putting pressure on the dollarised economy. It borrowed excessively to fill the gap. The new government had little alternative but to pursue a more orthodox stabilisation policy course. The new programme will seek to cut back on borrowing and deficits by boosting fiscal sustainability and competitiveness, thus strengthening Ecuador's dollarisation. As is the Fund's welcome standard operating practice under Managing Director Christine Lagarde, it also includes measures to protect the poor and fight corruption.

Venezuela's economic collapse looms large over Latin America. With Nicolás Maduro still holding the reins, the IMF is engaged from afar in contingency planning with other institutions, such as the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, preparing for the day when Venezuela may have a legitimate government and counterparts on the ground for the Fund to deal with. The IMF hasn't been able to set foot in Caracas for more than a decade. Its knowledge about the Venezuelan economy is highly limited and the quality of what little data it receives from the country is suspect.

If there is a proper transition, massive humanitarian assistance will be the initial order of the day. The IMF will first wish to inject emergency assistance – presumably through its rapid financing instrument, though the permissible sums under Fund rules are not great. Critically, the Fund will also need to begin gathering data on the ground, meet the economic team, and develop a medium-term economic and financial plan. That will need to encompass policy reforms, import rehabilitation needs including in the oil sector, and requisite financing, such as official multilateral and bilateral inflows and debt relief. A plan will take time to develop and would probably be supported through an IMF extended arrangement. Venezuela's debt restructuring may make Argentina's look easy by comparison.

Mexico has a $75bn contingent flexible credit line arrangement with the IMF, extending through the end of November. The new government under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is committed to maintaining macroeconomic stability, including a primary surplus, and seems comfortable with central bank independence and the Banco de México's first-rate team. However, other López Obrador statements and actions are bruising investor confidence. Recent credit downgrades of Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, highlight that the country faces potential future fiscal pressures and contingent liabilities.

Only 'platinum' performers qualify for the flexible credit lines. As Mexico's FCLs of the past decade testify, the country has consistently been such a performer. The new government will need to decide if it still wants the FCL after November. For its part, the Fund will need to develop relations with the new Mexican team and assess their commitment to upholding 'platinum' policies. Given the Pemex downgrades and market ruminations about possible sovereign downgrades, Mexico may well want a further FCL extension to avoid a global investor selloff.

Colombia also has long had a FCL, and the current line totals nearly $11bn and extends through May 2020. Colombia's record of macroeconomic management in past years has been exemplary. But it is on the front lines of the Venezuelan crisis, and Colombia's noble humanitarian support for refugees is adding significantly to the country's fiscal burdens. As recently concluded by the Fund, Colombia faces the hurdle of being mindful of future fiscal and external competitiveness challenges, while tackling structural rigidities.

Ironically, while these Latin developments are afoot, a new Brazilian government is working on tough pension and budget reforms, many of which the Fund has long called for and all analysts agree are essential for restoring fiscal sustainability. But the IMF seemingly has few relationships with Brazil's new economic team. In addition, the team's policy orientation seems decidedly to the right of the IMF's in terms of maintaining effective social protections.

IMF activity in Latin America is percolating. The Fund has a much better reputation with the region's leadership than in the past. While it may not be on the radar screen of a world mesmerised by Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Theresa May and the like, Latin America warrants a watchful eye.

[anamaesabud]

FORMER AND CURRENT ADMINISTRATOR

Public administration is the cultivation of human race to organize society and it's capacity to direct it by virtue of laws and regulations. It pushes communities to achieve a common goal that is public oriented (Calden 1982 as cited in Brillantes and Fernandez 2005).The administration we have is considered as our major institution in education ,politics and government. Philippine government we had is a republic with a presedential form of government where in power is equally divided along it's 3 branches : executive, legislative and judicial.

President Benigno Aquino lll is known for its platform , which is to improve quality of life of every Filipino, especially the poor and the vulnerable one , which is their priority. During their administration they are known for their line "no one must be left behind in the straight path to progress".

During Aquino's presidency , he signed RA 10606 ( An act amending the national health insurance act of 1995), which mandates the provision of comprehensive health care need. This was our former president did , the universal health insurance covering in the Philippines. K to 12 basic education program also started during his time , their aim is to expand curriculum to provide sufficient time for mastery of concept of skill and developing life long learners.Also the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4P's), this was started during their administration.

In terms of the purchasing power of the citizens during his time , GDP growth average 6.2% yearly , even peaking at 7.2% when the country was the 2nd fastest growing economy in the Asia after China. Purchasing power of the Filipino citizenz remains unchanged since 2013. This is despite government figures the latest being the 6.1% growth on domestic product in 2014.

President Benigno Aquino lll urged business and fellow leaders of the Asia Pacific Corporation (APEC) member.Most business leader gives credit to the president for restoring the confidence of investors both foreign and local in the phillippine economy. During their administration a lot of business man notice their improvement in the government finances.There are some laws implemented to support entrepreneurs , Republic act No. 10679 an act promoting entrepreneurship and financial education among Filipino youth. This act promotes the sustainability of development of every Filipinos whose skills is in the field of finance and entrepreneurship shall be encouraged to have special training program . the law measure empower the DEped , CHED and TESDA to grant award on a team not more than 4 years to eligible entities teaching entrepreneurship also shall assist in the form of granting loans , who are deserving young entrepreneurs who are pursuing a project or study on entrepreneurship.

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte , our current leader is known for its war on drugs campaign and anti corruption campaign and we all know that this administration also focuses on changing our country into a better one and is known for his tag line "change is coming " . His administration re assured about his promises on public to sustain the previous administration's momentum for social development.

This administration highlights the human development approach the PDP , aims to implement government "politics, plans and programs anchored on the people's collective vision", to uplift the living of every individual , induce the expansion of the middle class and achieve a society "where no one is poor ". Many programs implemented by today's administration one of those is the AMBISYON 2040, that sum up the living aspirations of most Filipinos and the development of nation. Their are a lot of programs implemented by our president which are very beneficial to us , especially the free tuition in every Universities , which is most Filipinos are availing this. During this administration the social services sector had accounts for the largest bulk of the budget at 1.495 trillion, or 36.5% of the nation's budget , to fund human Capital development programs in education, health, and social protection. In terms of the purchasing power, they implemented the tax reform for acceleration and inclusion (TRAIN) law in which it changed the exice tax of different products and changed the personal income tax (PIT),estate tax,donors tax, value added tax and documentary stamp. The administration has its program called "Build , Build, Build" it hits the Philippines peso , it aims to usher the "Golden age of infrastructure" in the Philippines , which offer a lot of jobs to the Filipinos. President Duterte promise and guarantee Filipino busineswomen to support them in the development of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The president lead the 10th Filipino Entrepreneurship Summit at the world trade center in Pasay City. The DTI creates a policy towards achieving inclusive and sustainable growth that generates more opportunities for employment and Entrepreneurship in the country . The Inclusive Innovation Industrial Strategy (i3s) was formulated, it aims growing innovative and globaly competitive manufacturing agriculture and services. This two leaders we have has its different way of leading the country but has the same goal and intention. They both did their part as a father and leader of our nation we cannot judge them in their way and plans on running the country. Leading a very big organization is not easy it requires a lot of responsibilities handed on you so that we should not underestimate them , even sometimes they commit lapses but still they had contributed on our country. Both administration brought changes on our economy and brought development on our economy , yet I can say that our present leader and administration has more economicaly development due to its ways and the way he ruled and his effective leading that becomes the reason to have a fast result in development.

References:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.genglobal.org/philippines/his-excellency-president-rodrigo-r-duterte-sends-his-greetings-global-entrepreneurship&ved=2ahUKEwic05Hh-oDsAhVjIqYKHVG1BIwQFjABegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2QZLyFX0C4-PRr3_0NRxT6

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi&ved=2ahUKEwiyse_M1IDsAhWSF4gKHTBlCtMQFjAYegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0TThTx10HQGlMIYrGCzq67

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://rappler.com/business/economy/filipinos-purchasing-power-unchanged-since-2013-kantar&ved=2ahUKEwj1ytGH4YDsAhUjNKYKHYkXC-cQFjAQegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw2xJxy5dqMwYACtWUbDl1KH

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://globalnation.inquirer.net/131839/aquino-pushes-for-evolution-innovation-in-braving-disruptions/amp&ved=2ahUKEwjlk5DY4oDsAhXaMN4KHWNPCQwQFjAEegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw2Mt_CiiCkog-GegLBnVkeC&ampcf=1&cshid=1600915443919

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.pressreader.com/philippines/philippine-daily-inquirer-1109/20180107/282157881637789&ved=2ahUKEwirgK_l9YDsAhXXFIgKHdTVCrUQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw1_IYLSAJNZGuBFGtRFA2uf

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.dbm.gov.ph/index.php/secretary-s-corner/press-releases/list-of-press-releases/1589-president-duterte-signs-p4-1-trillion-2020-national-budget&ved=2ahUKEwirgK_l9YDsAhXXFIgKHdTVCrUQFjANegQIEBAI&usg=AOvVaw3MVqAngibpjuYVf7EdCd2p&cshid=1600921446433

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.genglobal.org/philippines/his-excellency-president-rodrigo-r-duterte-sends-his-greetings-global-entrepreneurship&ved=2ahUKEwic05Hh-oDsAhVjIqYKHVG1BIwQFjABegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2QZLyFX0C4-PRr3_0NRxT6

[phgq]

DBCC revises GDP assumptions due to pandemic's impact

#PHnews: DBCC revises GDP assumptions due to pandemic's impact

MANILA – Economic managers have revised their growth targets for 2020 and 2021 and these have been included in the proposed PHP4.506-trillion national budget for next year that has been approved by the President last July 30.

 In a statement Thursday, the inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) said this year’s growth figure has been revised to -5.5 percent, deeper than the previous revised figures of between -2.0 to -3.4 percent.

 The latest figures were arrived at after considering the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on tourism, trade, and remittances, it said.

 Economic managers also changed their growth target for next year to 6.5 to 7.5 percent, which is also the new target for 2022. This was previously between a range of 8 to 9 percent.

 “The priority implementation of the Build, Build, Build infrastructure program and revitalization of the industry and services sectors are expected to lead the recovery,” the statement said.

 Similarly, inflation assumption for 2020 was changed to a range between 1.75 to 2.75 percent due to weaker demand because of the pandemic, while the assumption for 2021-2022 was kept between 2 to 4 percent.

 The target for the period was kept at between 2 to 4 percent.

 “This means that prices in the typical consumption basket of Filipino families will remain stable and predictable,” the statement said.

 Assumption for Dubai crude oil futures was revised to USD35-45 per barrel from USD 23-39 per barrel from the 2021-2022 assumption was kept at USD35-50 per barrel.

 The Philippine peso to US dollar assumption for this year is at PHP50-52 while it is PHP50-54 for the next two years.

 The local currency is currently trading at 49-level against the greenback.

 Exports are seen to contract by 16 percent this year and imports by 18 percent.

 For 2021-2022, exports are seen to recover and post a growth of 5 percent and imports to expand by 8 percent “consistent with the expected pace of recovery in global and domestic demand in the following years.”

 Inflows from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) are seen to decline by 5 percent this year but to post a 4-percent growth in the next two years.

 With the increased spending vis-à-vis the government’s Covid-19 response and the recovery program, economic managers changed the disbursement program for this year to PHP4.34 trillion, up by PHP110 billion, while revenues were reduced to PHP2.52 trillion from PHP2.61 trillion.

 Budget gap for this year until 2022 is now estimated to account for about 8.4 to 9.6 percent gross domestic product (GDP).

 “Despite these adjustments in deficit spending, the DBCC is confident that the national government’s debt will be kept at a sustainable and responsible level, within the 60 percent internationally-recommended debt threshold, by 2022,” it added. 

 During the joint briefing of the DBCC and the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Thursday, Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III said the government is borrowing funds to augment its revenues and properly finance its programs and projects.

 He, however, said that bulk of the borrowings until 2022 will come from domestic fund sources at about 75 percent while the balance of 25 percent will be sourced from external creditors.

 In terms of funding the 15-day modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in the National Capital Region (NCR), Bulacan, Laguna, Cavite and Rizal, Dominguez said any stimulus package “has to be affordable.”

 He said that while the government recognizes the need to help the vulnerable sector, it cannot just spend loosely because this will balloon the budget gap.

 He added the government is ready to spend additional PHP180 billion this year.

 “These numbers are arrived at to keep our fiscal deficit in a manageable zone,” Dominguez said.

 He said “the government is waging a war on Covid-19 on all fronts” by addressing the issue through fiscal stimulus, a recalibrated budget for 2021, and large infrastructure investment.

 “Although the first semester figures underscore the challenges ahead of us, with the public’s cooperation and if we work together to shore up consumer confidence, we will deliver better economic outcomes in the final half of this year,” he added.  (PNA)

   ***

References:

* Philippine News Agency. "DBCC revises GDP assumptions due to pandemic's impact." Philippine News Agency. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1111402 (accessed August 07, 2020 at 03:40AM UTC+14).

* Philippine News Agency. "DBCC revises GDP assumptions due to pandemic's impact." Archive Today. https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1111402 (archived).

[businessliveme]

A Pivotal Week Confronts Emerging Markets as Traders Look to 2020

(Bloomberg) –It may come down to the will of central banks, trade negotiators and voters this week to set the tone for emerging markets headed toward 2020.

Traders are standing by for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s last policy decisions of 2019. The central banks’ new forecasts will provide insight into their ability and willingness to provide further stimulus for a global economy that the IMF predicts will grow at the slowest annual pace in a decade.

“Emerging markets will clearly benefit from any mildly dovish tone which will boost risk assets and oil the wheels of the global carry trade,” said Paul Greer, a London-based money manager at Fidelity International, whose developing-nation debt fund has outperformed 95% of peers this year. The fund is bullish on emerging-market credit, local-currency debt and currencies, he said.

Emerging-market stocks and currencies rose for the first time in four weeks in the five days through Friday as a better-than-expected U.S. payrolls report gave the Fed more reason to hold interest rates steady after three straight cuts. Investor sentiment is likely to get another boost from the U.K. election, which could finally pave a more resolute course for an exit from the European Union, and the probability that the U.S. and China will close in on a phase one trade deal, according to NatWest Markets.

Read: World Bank asks GCC economies to focus on environmental sustainability 

“If we do get a phase-one deal and a Brexit, the stage could be set for a decent first quarter for emerging markets,” said Abdul Kadir Hussain, head of fixed-income asset management at Dubai-based Arqaam Capital. Any disappointment could lead to “a very sharp negative reaction, especially given the time of year, when liquidity is starting to thin out,” he said.

As a reminder that growth in some developing economies remains sluggish, central banks in Turkey, Russia and Brazil will likely cut interest rates this week.

Developing-nation dollar bonds are headed for their best yearly performance since 2012, while stocks and currencies have held on to the bulk of this year’s gains even as the market remains hostage to the ups and downs of the trade talks. The U.S. side expects a phase one deal to be completed before the Dec. 15 deadline when new American tariffs on Chinese goods are scheduled to take effect, according to people familiar with the matter.

Cut, Cut, Cut

Turkey’s central bank is expected to deliver another big rate cut on Thursday, adding to the 10 percentage points of easing that Governor Murat Uysal has already overseen under his watch so far. The bank will probably slash rates by 150 basis points to 12.5%, according to economists’ median estimate. That would still leave Turkey with one of the highest real rates among its peers. Some economists predict a deeper cut to 12%

Russia’s central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will likely lower rates by 25 basis points to 6.25% on Friday, according to the majority of estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The central bank has reduced rates by a total of 125 basis points so far this year, returning rates to levels last seen before the Crimea crisis. The ruble has outperformed all of its emerging-market peers in the past three months

In Brazil, the central bank is expected to cut its key rate by half a percentage point on Wednesday, even after inflation picked up. The currency gained in the past week, rebounding from the record low it reached on Nov. 27. Peru, meantime, will probably keep its benchmark rate unchanged in on Thursday

Ukraine’s central bank will probably reduce rates by a percentage point to 14.5%. The currency’s world-beating performance this year is proving a concern for the country’s export-dependent economy

The Philippine central bank will probably hold its benchmark interest rate on Thursday, according to all of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That will likely help the peso to hold on to its spot as the best-performing Asian currency this quarter

Kazakhstan and Serbia will also likely keep interest rates unchanged on Monday and Thursday, respectively; Mozambique will also decide on policy on Thursday

Clues on Restructuring

President-elect Alberto Fernandez takes control of Argentina on Tuesday facing a massive debt burden, sluggish economy and citizens eager for social change. He finally named his cabinet on Friday, appointing Martin Guzman as economy minister amid expectations that economist Miguel Pesce will lead Argentina’s central bank

“This will be crucial for offering clues around what his policy objective will be and how they will tackle the likely sovereign debt restructuring next year,” said Greer at Fidelity

The peso is once again the world’s worst-performing currency in 2019, and dollar bonds have slipped to about 40 cents on the dollar. November inflation data to be released Thursday may show the economic picture worsened

Aramco Debut

Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion from the world’s biggest initial public offering, will begin trading on the Saudi stock exchange on Wednesday. The state-owned oil giant set the final price of its shares at 32 riyals ($8.53), valuing the world’s most profitable company at $1.7 trillion

Read more: The Prince Got His World-Beating IPO. Now Hard Work Begin

Economic Data

Investors will watch Mexico’s November inflation figures on Monday for clues on whether the central bank will cut rates yet again when policy makers meet later this month. The peso is the best-performing Latin American currency so far this quarter

Consumer inflation in South Africa probably remained at the lowest level in almost nine years in November, data may show on Wednesday. Low inflation and a third-quarter economic contraction gives the central bank room to cut interest rates when policy makers next meet in January, though interest-rate derivatives are only pricing in a one-in-four chance of a 25-basis-point reduction in the repo rate

China will report inflation and PPI data on Tuesday

Trade data is due this week from India, Taiwan and the Philippines as Asia, a trade-dependent region, struggles with faltering exports as the trade war endures

India, which unexpectedly held its key rate last week, will report inflation data on Thursday

–With assistance from Alec D.B. McCabe.

The post A Pivotal Week Confronts Emerging Markets as Traders Look to 2020 appeared first on Businessliveme.com.

from WordPress https://ift.tt/36dYil9 via IFTTT

[monicalynnthings]

Developing Mexico

Mexico is a country of rich culture, history, and people whom are more than accepting to all who visit.  Similar to the United States, they are also plagued with issues of economic development, a lack of understanding between regions within the country, and individuals who want to see a better life for future generations but contend with outdated laws and a government that has a reputation of corruption.  Being the next door neighbor to the United States it is clear throughout Mexico that the idea of achieving the American Dream is still very much alive and strived for.  From American sports logos on goods in grocery stores to finding American’s are initially offered a different menu in restaurants, one designed to include what is perceived to be what American’s like, you can see that the proud people of Mexico are willing to work hard and learn what makes America successful so that they may achieve a similar dream within their own country.

The isolated issues along the boarder between the United States and Mexico taint the global image of both nations and cause strife between governments.  Although mostly isolated the illegal activity has started to creep further into the United States.  Having a better understanding of the setbacks both nations are facing and developing solutions that can create a mutually beneficial relationship between neighbors can make the area of North America better for all individuals.  The only way to really be able to understand what the root issues are is to go there, talk to the people, look around, and find out.

The beginning of Mexico’s history as we know it today parallels that of the United States in many ways.  However, the United States progressed further ahead in national development faster than Mexico so it makes sense that Mexico would look up to its older sibling America for guidance.  Mexico was predominately ruled by a great Mayan nation prior to the Spanish Inquisition; similarly various Native American tribes occupied the United States before being discovered by Europe.  Today many of the Mayan people in Mexico still live in their own villages to continue with their traditional ways of life similar to the Native American reservations in the United States.  Many of those wishing to come to America do so to send money back to their families in Mexico.  Unfortunately the conflict along the boarder causes most searching for a better life to end up trapped in illegal markets and will never be able to achieve what they are looking for.  It is forgotten that Mexico actually has it’s own southern boarder conflict to contend with.  Immigrants from South American countries cross the Mexican southern boarder in search of a better way of life.  Neither nation is in favor of the events that take place along the boarder, most simply close the imaginary curtain and pretend that the evils that occur do not exist.  The United States does not want to be known as a nation unwilling to be accepting of immigrants, which is who founded this great nation, while Mexico does not want to be known as a pestering nation that only creates problems for its neighbor.  It is important to note that Mexico is not a nation accused of steeling America’s technological advances.  Instead it is a developing nation that emulates America and wants to come into their own.

The United States was in large part able to advance much faster through optimizing the utilization of its natural resources and technological advances, then exporting goods to generate income for growth.  Again, many of those traveling to the United States for work do so to send money back to their home country because of the lack of sustainable opportunity in Mexico.  So the question becomes how can Mexico contribute in a global economy?

Recently building a wall along the boarder has become a tiresome issue in American politics that has evolved into nothing more than an endless pride match tug of war between two sides, both of which are to stubborn to give in.  Politicians are spending far too much time letting their egos get in the way of this issue instead of exercising due diligence in objectively assessing both sides of the controversial topic.  President Trump strongly promoted building a wall in his presidential campaign and won, so it can be derived that the popular vote amongst the American people is to build a wall.  The argument for not building a wall has never been that there are not available funds to do so.  It is a little unclear what the reasoning is behind not building a wall along the United States southern boarder.  When examining the 2019 federal fiscal budget the amount of money being argued over seems trivial.  However, the amount of money being requested when converted to the peso is a more substantial amount.  As elected officials in a government office one can not forget that their job is to represent the people who elected them, not themselves.  The best stance both Democratic and Republican parties can do at this point is to show they are able to make decisions best representing the views of the people in a tactful and timely manner.

The close-minded idea that a wall can only represent shutting out those looking for a better way of life overlooks the process that would occur in order for such a wall to be built.  The reality is that American college graduates are not going to quit their jobs and move down to the boarder to build a wall, so those who would benefit financially from this government project are those looking for opportunity.  Instead of the wall representing a way to keep people out of a nation built by immigrants it would instinctively stand for two nations wanting to put a stop to the issues that divide them by building a stronger globally inspired relationship together.

Of course giving those along the boarder a job to help build a wall does not speak to the sustainability of what would happen to those employees once the wall was constructed.  Immigration has needed to be reformed for quite some time.  It would be beneficial to create a temporary program making citizenship more attainable for those seeking it by simplifying the process for employeers to sponsor those hard working individuals whom dream to become American citizens.  Once citizenship is granted those new Americans would be able to relocate anywhere in the United States making integration into society no longer prohibited by immigration status.  Those not wanting to become citizens and maintain their Mexican citizenship would have the opportunity to better provide for their families.  Perhaps even working towards gaining enough to begin taking the necessary steps to stimulating some developing areas in Mexico, or at the very least gaining enough to give an individual some means of entrepreneurial support.

Internally Mexico does not have laws governing against monopolies which creates a gap between those who are very wealthy and those who are poor.  Providing one example of how a corporate company leveraged its old technology to make way for new technology we can look to AT&T when they began installing their fiber optic internet service.  As their new fiber optic cables were installed the company leased out their old copper lines to start-up distributors wanting to gain entry into the internet service business.  If this were applied to the current telephone service in Mexico it would provide many individuals with jobs, as well as pave the way for future growth in that industry.  Other industry leaders in Mexico may find it feasible to apply this same strategy that would optimize their own industry potential while providing opportunity for others.

When visiting Mexico it was apparent that the country has much to offer.  Many Canadians choose to vacation there and will often times have dental work done instead of waiting on the long lists to have work done through Canada’s socialized health care system.  A root canal that would cost you around $2,700 in the United States can be done for $250 in Mexico without sacrificing quality.  The inviting culture provides many enjoyable tourist destinations throughout the country.  There are many products that come from Mexico for American’s to enjoy including chocolate, coffee, various produce, silver, and tequila obviously cannot be left off this list.  The fishing industry along the vast coastlines produce some fish native to only those areas.  The abundance of land and GMO bans make their country more marketable in the produce industry.  The agave plant that can be found in abundance is a sustainable crop that can produce sweeteners, tequila, and rope or fabrics can be manufactured from the plants fibers.  The result of an increase in manufacturing businesses moving to Mexico has been a developing skilled labor workforce.  With their unique music, food, and culture Mexico already has an identity of its own.  With the appropriate internal government reform to support their people they already have the tools and skills necessary to grow from a developing nation to one more capable of contributing to a global economy.

[chloe-jayde]

Positions on Asian currencies pull back on resurgent dollar: Reuters poll

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/positions-on-asian-currencies-pull-back-on-resurgent-dollar-reuters-poll

Positions on Asian currencies pull back on resurgent dollar: Reuters poll

© Reuters. An employee of a money changer holds a stack of Indonesia rupiah notes before giving it to a customer in Jakarta

By Ambar Warrick

(Reuters) – Investors trimmed their positions on most emerging Asian currencies in the last two weeks, a Reuters poll showed, following recent strength in the dollar on signs of resilience in the U.S. economy and a rise in Treasury yields.

U.S. debt yields surged over the past two weeks on a sell-off in the bond market, while robust economic data in the United States, pulled the rug out from under riskier asset classes.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated that inflation was nearing the central bank’s target, and that it remained on track to raise borrowing costs in June.

As such, the dollar () gained against a basket of currencies, underpinned by the Fed’s upward path for its benchmark interest rate.

ASIAN CURRENCIES TO RETREAT

A stronger dollar bodes poorly for Asian currencies, as it will lure capital from the region’s volatile markets to relatively safer assets in the United States.

A poll of 12 analysts reflected the shift in portfolios, as positions on most Asian currencies were pulled back.

Bearish bets on the Indian rupee surged to their highest since August 2013, reflecting recent concerns about sustainable growth in the country.

India’s infrastructure growth slowed to a three-year low of 4.2 percent in the fiscal year ending in March, indicating Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a tough challenge to boost investment ahead of general elections due early next year.

Bullish bets on the Singapore dollar fell to their lowest since November 2017. The currency shed about 1.1 percent to the dollar in April, its worst month since November 2016.

The city-state’s fundamentals remain strong, however, with factory output growing more than expected in March while Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong painted a rosier picture of economic performance for 2018 this week.

Positions on the Taiwan dollar turned bearish after more than nine months, cementing a recent downturn in the currency.

The Taiwan dollar saw April as its worst month in more than two years, and is poised to lose in May as well.

An expected slowdown in global tech demand has also fueled speculation about whether recent strong growth in the technology sector can be sustained, as Taiwan’s GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2018.

Bearish bets on Indonesia’s rupiah surged to their highest since November 2016, as it bore the brunt of a yield prompted sell-off. The rupiah is subject to a large amount of foreign exposure, with data from Bank Indonesia showing that foreigners held about 39 percent of Indonesian government bonds as at the end of March.

Indonesia’s central bank has said it would intervene in the market if volatility in the rupiah got out of hand.

EASING TENSIONS BENEFIT WON

On the other hand, bullish bets on the South Korean won rose, as easing political tensions with its Northern neighbor reaffirmed confidence in the country.

The leaders of North and South Korea signed a declaration last week agreeing to work for the “complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula,” a pledge of peace following about six decades of conflict.

The news comes as a great relief for South Korean markets, which were rattled by escalated tensions following a barrage of missile tests by North Korea last year.

The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the , South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.

The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/positions-on-asian-currencies-pull-back-on-resurgent-dollar-reuters-poll

[benmauerberger]

Positions on Asian currencies pull back on resurgent dollar: Reuters poll

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/positions-on-asian-currencies-pull-back-on-resurgent-dollar-reuters-poll

Positions on Asian currencies pull back on resurgent dollar: Reuters poll

© Reuters. An employee of a money changer holds a stack of Indonesia rupiah notes before giving it to a customer in Jakarta

By Ambar Warrick

(Reuters) – Investors trimmed their positions on most emerging Asian currencies in the last two weeks, a Reuters poll showed, following recent strength in the dollar on signs of resilience in the U.S. economy and a rise in Treasury yields.

U.S. debt yields surged over the past two weeks on a sell-off in the bond market, while robust economic data in the United States, pulled the rug out from under riskier asset classes.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated that inflation was nearing the central bank’s target, and that it remained on track to raise borrowing costs in June.

As such, the dollar () gained against a basket of currencies, underpinned by the Fed’s upward path for its benchmark interest rate.

ASIAN CURRENCIES TO RETREAT

A stronger dollar bodes poorly for Asian currencies, as it will lure capital from the region’s volatile markets to relatively safer assets in the United States.

A poll of 12 analysts reflected the shift in portfolios, as positions on most Asian currencies were pulled back.

Bearish bets on the Indian rupee surged to their highest since August 2013, reflecting recent concerns about sustainable growth in the country.

India’s infrastructure growth slowed to a three-year low of 4.2 percent in the fiscal year ending in March, indicating Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a tough challenge to boost investment ahead of general elections due early next year.

Bullish bets on the Singapore dollar fell to their lowest since November 2017. The currency shed about 1.1 percent to the dollar in April, its worst month since November 2016.

The city-state’s fundamentals remain strong, however, with factory output growing more than expected in March while Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong painted a rosier picture of economic performance for 2018 this week.

Positions on the Taiwan dollar turned bearish after more than nine months, cementing a recent downturn in the currency.

The Taiwan dollar saw April as its worst month in more than two years, and is poised to lose in May as well.

An expected slowdown in global tech demand has also fueled speculation about whether recent strong growth in the technology sector can be sustained, as Taiwan’s GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2018.

Bearish bets on Indonesia’s rupiah surged to their highest since November 2016, as it bore the brunt of a yield prompted sell-off. The rupiah is subject to a large amount of foreign exposure, with data from Bank Indonesia showing that foreigners held about 39 percent of Indonesian government bonds as at the end of March.

Indonesia’s central bank has said it would intervene in the market if volatility in the rupiah got out of hand.

EASING TENSIONS BENEFIT WON

On the other hand, bullish bets on the South Korean won rose, as easing political tensions with its Northern neighbor reaffirmed confidence in the country.

The leaders of North and South Korea signed a declaration last week agreeing to work for the “complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula,” a pledge of peace following about six decades of conflict.

The news comes as a great relief for South Korean markets, which were rattled by escalated tensions following a barrage of missile tests by North Korea last year.

The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the , South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.

The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/positions-on-asian-currencies-pull-back-on-resurgent-dollar-reuters-poll

[phgq]

Green, sustainability bond markets poised for growth

#PHnews: Green, sustainability bond markets poised for growth

MANILA -- The green and sustainability debt markets in the Philippines and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) are poised for growth with the necessary foundations for their development in place, an official of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said.

In a keynote speech at the Asean+3 Bond Market Forum Meeting at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) headquarters in Manila on February 5, SEC Commissioner Ephyro Luis Amatong cited the “notable” issuances of bonds worth over USD3.8 billion under the Asean Green and Sustainability Bond Standards in 2019 as positive indication of the market’s development. Last year’s issuances amounted six times more than the USD639 million issued in 2018, when the value increased by over 50 percent from 2017.

Sustainability bonds accounted for USD1.4 billion or 36 percent of last year’s total, up 14 times from just USD100 million in 2018. “While Asean may still be a relatively small player in the global Green/ Sustainability debt market -- with USD330 billion raised in 2019 -- the rate of growth in Asean appears to show the necessary foundations for the development of such a Green/ Sustainability debt market have indeed been laid, including the issuance of a clear set of guidelines for issuers to follow and which investors, both international and domestic, recognize as holistic and reliable,” Amatong said. Where Asean stands For now, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand dominate the Asean green and sustainability bond market. The Philippines has seen 15 issuances worth USD3.04 billion by a range of private sector issuers, including renewable energy firms and banks taking advantage of both on- and offshore markets. Philippine banks particularly have had notable success in this market. Among them is Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC), which has issued two sustainability bonds and one green bond totaling USD742 million, of which USD442 million is peso-denominated.

Bank of the Philippine Islands also issued green bonds under the Asean Standards to raise USD300 million and CHF100 million (Swiss Franc), with the latter transaction achieving a negative yield.

Most recently, state-owned Development Bank of the Philippines entered the domestic sustainability market, raising USD352 million from the issuance of peso-denominated green bonds in late 2019. In 2016, there were only three green bonds outstanding in Asean, for a total of USD252 million. There are now at least 57 issues under the Asean Standards for Green, Social and Sustainability bonds for a total of USD4 billion. In the Philippines, the private sector-led foray into the green and sustainability capital markets first relied on strategic support from development partners, particularly in the case of renewable energy producers. Overall, seven of the Philippines’ 15 sustainability transactions have received some form of support or engagement by multilateral development finance institutions, namely the ADB and International Finance Corporation.

‘Necessary foundations’ in place Amatong cited the issuance of a clear set of guidelines for issuers among the “necessary foundations” for the development of the Asean green and sustainability debt market. “First, we at the Asean Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) recognized early on the potential of green and sustainable finance to attract international investors, who, generally speaking, have had more funds to invest than investible options,” he said. Amatong further said ACMF sees this as an opportunity for Asean countries, many of whom have significant infrastructure development programs, to access the untapped sources of much-needed financing.

“Resilient and adaptable infrastructure is particularly important to those of us in Asean since we are particularly at risk to the impact of climate change,” he said. ACMF developed the Asean Green Bond Standards in 2017 in line with the Green Bond Principles formulated by the International Capital Market Association. Fundamentally, the standards provide a framework to ensure transparency and allow investors to make informed judgments regarding an offering’s “green-ness” and sustainability. The Philippines adopted the standards in August 2018, as the SEC issued the guidelines on the issuance of bonds for the financing or refinancing of new and/or existing projects that must provide clear environmental benefits, such as those relating to renewable energy, energy efficiency, pollution prevention and control, environmentally sustainable management of living natural resources and land use, clean transportation, climate change adaptation, and green buildings. The Philippines also adopted the Asean Social Bonds Standards and Asean Sustainability Bonds Standards.

In April 2019, the SEC issued the guidelines on the issuance of bonds for social projects aimed at providing or promoting affordable basic infrastructure, access to healthcare and education, and food security, among others, as well as those for social projects with environmental co-benefits. “Asean’s commitment to a sustainable future and sustainable capital markets goes beyond the issuance of standards and the debt capital markets,” Amatong said, as six of the 10 Asean members require publicly listed companies to issue sustainability reports. The Philippines, for one, requires publicly-listed companies to disclose certain information in relation to their non-financial performance across the economic, environmental and social aspects of their organizations. The SEC issued the guidelines on sustainability reporting in February 2019. Amatong also cited the participation of five Asean members in international initiatives that seek to enhance sustainability risk management and the adoption by seven members of policies to mainstream sustainable finance. In March, the ACMF is expected to adopt a broader sustainable finance roadmap, which it intends to present during the Asean Finance Ministers’ meeting for endorsement. “All this is to say that we think that Asean is off to a good start in its sustainability journey,” Amatong said. “But there is still so much we can do, and so much we need to do to realize our shared goal of sustainable economic growth in the real economy supported by sustainable capital markets.” (PR)

***

References:

* Philippine News Agency. "Green, sustainability bond markets poised for growth." Philippine News Agency. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1093366 (accessed February 10, 2020 at 01:24AM UTC+14).

* Philippine News Agency. "Green, sustainability bond markets poised for growth." Archive Today. https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1093366 (archived).

[riannnnnna-blog]

STATE OF ICT IN THE PHILIPPINES

Philippines - Information and Communications TechnologyThis is a best prospect industry sector for this country. Includes a market overview and trade data

Last Published:

7/13/2017Overview

The Philippine ICT industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory due to opportunities from the financial, telecommunications, Business Process Management (BPM), and health IT sectors.  Increased consumer spending, low PC penetration, and small and medium enterprise (SME) modernization will also contribute to its growth.  Business Monitor International (BMI) forecasts total IT spending for 2016 to be US$4.4 billion, an 8.3 percent increase from 2015.  BMI expects the annual growth rate in this sector to increase to 10.6 percent and reach US$6.6 billion in total spending by 2020. The financial sector is one of the vertical industries expected to leverage ICT to deliver better and more secure customer service.  The BPM industry is expected to employ 1.3 million people and generate US$25 million in revenue by 2016.  The BPM industry is driving the growth of the hardware, software, services, and cloud opportunities as more offices are opened.   Philippine SMEs now prefer cloud services as a lower cost alternative to more expensive software licenses.  The cloud is now considered as a great equalizer in the Philippines as it makes technology solutions more affordable and available to SMEs.   Other sectors that are expected to increase IT spending are retail, consumer goods, and health IT.  The International Data Corporation (IDC) issued a press release stating that Philippine healthcare IT spending is expected to reach US$60 million in 2019, with a four percent annual growth rate from 2016 to 2019.  IDC indicated that the largest investors in IT are healthcare providers, including hospitals.  This group accounted for 88 percent of healthcare IT expenditures in 2015.  Hardware spending ranked highest with a 79 percent share, followed by services and software.  IDC analysts consider this trend as being consistent with ASEAN where the priority is focused on upgrading existing IT infrastructure.  However, IDC Philippines commented that there is a clear distinction between the private and public sector in healthcare IT.  Privately-owned hospitals are more aggressive in IT adoption in order to stimulate the growth of medical tourism.  Public /Government hospitals are still focused on developing basic healthcare services and making them more accessible.  IDC expects increased demand in mobility, tele-health and CRM solutions for the healthcare industry. The Department of Science and Technology’s Information and Communications Technology Office (DOST-ICTO) launched the “Free Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Places” project in late 2015 with a budget of US$66 million.  TV white space spectrum wireless technology will be used for last-mile connectivity in areas lacking broadband infrastructure. All participating internet service providers will peer with PhOpenIX, the country's only third-party, non-profit, publicly funded internet exchange point. Filipinos are prolific users of social media.  Estimates this year show that there are 48 million active social media users from the Philippines.  Of this number, 42.1 million are on Facebook; 13 million on Twitter and 3.5 million are LinkedIn users. The Philippine telecommunications industry remains very robust and is a major contributor to the country’s economy. Continuous capex for the upgrade of communications equipment contributes to the growth of the ICT industry.  Below are growth projections for the telecommunications industry:

Mobile: As of the end of 2015, there are 116.8 million subscribers with a penetration rate of 116 percent.  BMI forecasts a 119.8 percent penetration by 2020.

Broadband: There is tremendous growth potential for broadband with wireless subscriptions accounting for 80 percent of all subscriptions.  Smartphone ownership is increasing as it becomes more affordable along with the growing demand for high-speed Internet access.  Smartphone penetration is estimated to be about 40 percent.  BMI forecasts 16.5 million broadband subscriptions by 2020.

The challenge for the Philippines is to continue to upgrade its telecom infrastructure to keep up with the growing demand for broadband.  According to Akamai’s “State of the Internet Report” for the fourth quarter of 2015, the average internet speed in the Philippines is 3.2 megabytes per second (MBPS), the second slowest in Asia Pacific.

Fixed Line: fixed line penetration is around four percent with an estimated four  million subscribers. This sub-sector is expected to remain stagnant.

The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT) and Globe Telecom are the two major telecommunication carriers in the country. PLDT, through its mobile group, SMART Communications and Sun Cellular, controls 70 percent of the mobile market, with Globe accounting for 30 percent. The current Philippine cellular infrastructure is Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM). 3G service was launched in 2006. 4G was made available in 2010. More recently, SMART and Globe launched long-term evolution (LTE) networks in 2012. PLDT has an existing digital fiber optic connecting the entire country, as well as an existing digital microwave radio system and a data network. Globe Telecom also has fiber optic cables and was the first to offer Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMax).  SMART announced in April 2016 that it is deploying the country’s first LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) service. LTE-A allows for higher data speeds of up to 250 Mbps. A third mobile phone carrier, San Miguel Telecom, is expected to launch its service in late 2016.  San Miguel was previously in talks with Telstra of Australia but the two were unable to reach a formal agreement.  Industry analysts have attributed the failed San Miguel-Telstra tie-up to significant barriers to entry, such as the cap on foreign direct investment for utilities, and the current duopoly in the telecom industry.  

Sub-Sector Best Prospects

IT Security

Midrange enterprise servers

Networking equipment

Enterprise software (CRM, ERP)

Broadband solutions

Wireless applications

Database storage and management

SAAS

Fiber Optic Network

Smartphones and tablets

Opportunities

Increased enterprise IT spending led by the financial and telecommunications industry.

Growing BPM industry will sustain demand for computer hardware, software, and services.

Positive forecast for household income growth from 2016-2020 is projected to strengthen the demand for PCs, smartphones, and tablets.

The Philippine Government is expected to continue its efforts to provide electronic services to its citizens, and offer free Wi-Fi in more public places.  There is also increased interest in Smart City solutions in the Philippines where the focus is in transparency and increased efficiency by automating government services.

2014

2015 (estimated)

2016 (estimated)

2017 (estimated)

Total Market Size

1,712,635

1,968,924

2,067,370

2,170,739

Total Local Production

6,095,718

5,279,122

5,543,078

5,820,232

Total Exports

5,805,446

5,027,735

5,279,122

5,543,078

Total Imports

1,422,362

1,717,537

1,803,414

1,893,585

Imports from the U.S.

283,728

276,939

290,785

305,325

Exchange Rate: 1 USD

44.4

45.5

47.3

N/A

$US thousands (total market size = (total local production + imports) - exports) Data Sources:        Total Local Production: Estimated (Total Exports + 5 percent)        Total Exports: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)        Total Imports: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)        Imports from U.S.: U.S. Census Bureau * Listed exchange rates are not used in the above calculations.  Exchange rate shows average value of Philippine Peso to U.S. Dollar.  (Source: Central Bank of the Philippines).

Trade Events:

Asia IoT Business Platform 2013 May 23-24, 2016 / Manila, Philippines

CommunicAsia / BroadcastAsia 2016 May 31-June 3, 2016 / Singapore

Web Resources

Information Communications Technology Office (ICTO)

International Data Corporation (IDC)

Globe Telecom

PLDT

SMART Communications

Post Contact information:

Ms. Yna C. Quiambao, Commercial Specialist U.S. Commercial Service, Philippines E-mail: Yna.Quiambao@trade.gov; businessphilippines@trade.gov

Prepared by our U.S. Embassies abroad. With its network of 108 offices across the United States and in more than 75 countries, the U.S. Commercial Service of the U.S. Department of Commerce utilizes its global presence and international marketing expertise to help U.S. companies sell their products and services worldwide. Locate the U.S. Commercial Service trade specialist in the U.S. nearest you by visiting http://export.gov/usoffices.

[jamieclawhorn]

These 2 FTSE 100 winners can maintain their explosive growth

The following two companies have enjoyed an explosive start to 2016. Can they keep up the pace?

After the gold rush

Mexican-focused silver and gold miner Fresnillo (LSE: FRES) is the brightest stock of 2017, outpacing the entire FTSE 100 to grow 27.4% in the first three months. The prospector’s share price has been driven by the surge in silver and gold prices, and further turbo-charged by the slump in the Mexican peso. US president Donald Trump is at the heart of both of these trends.

Precious metals prices have soared as the Trump honeymoon ends and nervous investors seek safety: gold is up 4.46% in the last 30 days, while silver is up 7.39% (Fresnillo is the world’s largest primary silver producer). The peso was hammered by Trump’s talk of walls and tariffs, falling 11% the day after the election, good news for Fresnillo as two thirds of its costs are peso-based. 

Shine on

This isn’t just a Trump play. Fresnillo’s share price is up 75% over the past year, and 130% over two years. Last year it delivered record silver production of 50.3m ounces, while gold production of 935,500 ounces exceeded revised guidance. Adjusted revenues leapt 29.2% to $2.045bn and EBITDA profits soared 88.5% to $1.032bn, helped by cost reductions and productivity improvements.

Fresnillo continues to climb despite the recovery in the peso, following hints that the Trump administration isn’t planning a wholesale rewriting of the NAFTA free trade deal between the US, Canada and Mexico. Strong company management, global political uncertainty (which always props up precious metals), and forecast earnings per share growth of 22% this year and 36% in 2018 suggest that Fresnillo should continue to shine. However, it looks pricey at 44.4 times earnings.

Red hot Chilean miner

Chile-focused copper miner Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO) has also been rampant in 2017, its share price up 25% so far. Again, this continues a trend, as the share price has more than doubled in the past year. 2016 was a year of “operational delivery“, according to chief executive Iván Arriagada, with a 12.5% rise in copper production to 709,400 tonnes. It has also been helped by the restoration of King Copper, after the dark days of exile in 2015 and early 2016, and the across-the-board resurgence in commodity stocks as fears of a Chinese meltdown abate.

My concern is that the world’s biggest consumer of commodities is only kept on course by yet more unsustainable, bubble-inflating stimulus from the Chinese authorities. What cannot go on forever must one day stop. However, Antofagasta has worked hard to boost productivity, improve efficiency and reduce costs, with sustainable reductions of $176m last year. This helped boost cash flow from operations by 70% to a healthy $1.5bn, and fund dividend progression.

Lifecycles

As Arriagada points out, Antofagasta operates in a cyclical industry, but its cautious approach has given it a stable operating base and strong balance sheet. Again, the recent price surge leaves it trading at an expensive 31 times earnings, but with forecast EPS of 38% this year and 14% in 2018, and spirits rising in the global economy, this high price may still be right.

I reckon we might have an even more exciting growth prospect for you right here.

This mid-cap company has been turning on the style lately and one of the Motley Fool's top analysts reckons it is the latest British brand with the potential to go global.

To find out its name all you need do is download our BRAND NEW report A Top Growth Share From The Motley Fool.

Click here to read this no obligation report. It will be yours in moments and won't cost you a single penny.

More reading

2 growth stocks I wouldn’t touch with a bargepole

Top stocks for April

Why this mining stock is set to smash the Footsie over the next decade!

Harvey Jones has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

[jettadarkwynd]

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

New Post has been published on http://u.to/J3_fDw

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

Rates: Higher EMU inflation and hawkish FOMC Minutes won’t bring relief for bonds Focus turns to the EMU inflation reading and FOMC Minutes today. Following yesterday’s higher German CPI gauges, risks for the EMU inflation are firmly on the upside of expectations, but markets should be prepared. FOMC Minutes will likely reflect the hawkish spin at the December Fed meeting. The combination of both doesn’t call for a comeback of core bonds.

Currencies: USD testing recent highs against the euro and the yen Yesterday, a rise in core bond yields caused the dollar to test recent highs against the euro and the yen. For now, a sustained break didn’t occur. Today, the focus for global trading is on the EMU inflation and on the Fed Minutes. The dollar might take a breather after yesterday’s rally. The Fed minutes are a wildcard.

US equities closed the session with solid, broad-based gains, but off ISM-induced intraday highs. Overnight, Asian equities register small to modest gains apart from Japan which returns from holidays and profits from yen weakness.

US manufacturing ISM sentiment was iron-strong with headline at 54.7 (from 53.2), new orders at 60.2 (53) and price paid soaring to 65.5 (54.5). Modest improvement in employment to 53.1 (52.3). Strong start of year.

The dollar is slightly higher overnight after a strong run yesterday that fell just shy of breaking key technical levels against the euro. USD/JPY is again close to the cycle highs, after it couldn’t sustain above rally highs yesterday.

The Mexican peso sharply weakened and threatens cycle lows following US auto maker Ford’s announcement it will scrap plans to build a new $1.6B factory in Mexico. USD/MXN trades slightly above 21.

Denmark’s central bank intervened in currency markets in December for the first time since June, as the krone approaches what analysts estimate are the strongest levels “that the bank will allow”.

China has studied possible scenarios for the yuan and capital outflows this year and is preparing contingency plans, according to people familiar with the matter.

According to the FT, Trumps’ appetite for very long debt issuance will meet resistance inside the Treasury, as worries grow that too much experimentation could be destabilizing especially at a time of a rising budget deficit.

Today, attention goes to the EMU final services PMI and the HICP inflation. The US eco calendar contains only the car sales, but the FOMC Minutes will be scrutinized for signs how the Fed members perceive the fiscal outlook

Dollar tests key resistance but no break yet

On Tuesday, the dollar resumed its uptrend supported by a rise in core bond yields. Remarkably, this resumption of the reflation trade was triggered by a sharp rise in German inflation. A strong US manufacturing ISM and an initial rise of the oil price reinforced this trade. EUR/USD set a minor multi-year low. USD/JPY just missed the 118.66 correction top. Later, a correction in the oil price blocked the rise of core yields and of the dollar. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.0405 (from 1.0455). USD/JPY finished the day at 117.75 (from 117.55).

Overnight, Japanese equities jumped sharply higher (gains of about 2.5 %) at their first trading session of the year. Other regional markets show modest gains. The PBOC fixed the yuan at USD/CNY 6.9526, the weakest yuan level since 2008. However, both the CNY and the CNH trade stronger against the dollar as Chinese authorities are said to slow the decline of the yuan. The dollar is again better bid after yesterday’s late session setback. USD/JPY again tries to sustain north of the 118 level. EUR/USD is changing hands near the 1.04 barrier.

Today, the final EMU services PMI for December and the inflation data are up for release. After the upward surprise of German inflation, risks for the headline EMU inflation are on the upside of expectations. Markets expect a rise to 1% Y/Y from 0.6% Y/Y. The main attention will go to the core inflation, expected stable at 0.8% Y/Y. Here we side with the consensus, but an unlikely rise in the core inflation would certainly be noticed in the current reflationary market thinking. The Minutes of the December Fed meeting will be published after the European close. Markets will look for a shift in thinking based on future fiscal policy easing. The Fed Fund future curve currently discounts a 36.6% chance for a March rate increase. A hawkish report may raise the odds and support the dollar. Overall though, we still expect the FOMC to wait a bit longer before enacting another rate increase.

Yesterday, the dollar profited from higher core yields and tested key resistance against the euro and the yen, but no sustained break occurred (yet). Today, EMU inflation might also beat the consensus. However, we don’t expect a similar reaction of global interest rate markets and of the dollar as was the case yesterday. With no key eco data in the US, the dollar rally might take a breather That said, the downside of the US currency looks well protected going into the next key US data.

Global context: EUR/USD touched a new multi-year low at 1.0341 yesterday. After the Trump rally, there is already a lot of good USD news discounted. Interest rate differentials between the dollar and the euro remain very high, but didn’t widen anymore of late, slowing the rise of the dollar. Even, so, the absolute interest rate support should provide a solid USD bottom as long as US data remain good and as long as there are no profound doubts on the ability of the Trump-administration to execute a pro-growth agenda. EUR/USD 1.0341 is the first reference. A test of parity remains possible. EUR/USD 1.0653/70 is a first resistance. A return north of 1.0874 would question the USD positive momentum.

EUR/USD testing the cycle low, but no sustained break yet

EUR/GBP

Sterling hardly profits from strong PMI

On Tuesday, sterling traded strong during the morning session. The decline of EUR/USD also weighed on EUR/GBP. The UK currency was additionally supported by a very strong UK manufacturing PMI. Later in the session, sterling lost ground/returned some of its gains against the euro. The UK ambassador with the EU leaving his post might have triggered some renewed Brexit caution. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8503 (from 0.8517). Cable finished the session at 1.2237 (from 1.2278).

Today, the UK construction PMI and the UK credit an money supply data will be published. The UK construction PMI is expected marginally softer at 52.5 from 52.8. Credit data are expected solid. We expect the data to remain constructive, but they are no real market movers.

Sterling held strong in November and December, but lost some momentum in the second half of last month. The euro remains soft across the board, but EUR/GBP is holding a sideways trading pattern in the 0.85 area. For now, we see no trigger for a clear directional move. Uncertainty on the next steps in the Brexit debate make sustained sterling gains difficult in the run-up to the end of March article 50 deadline. We slightly prefer a buy-on-dips strategy in case of return action toward the 0.8300 ST range bottom.

EUR/GBP holding sideways range off the 0.8330 correction low

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Read More http://u.to/J3_fDw

[breakbit]

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

New Post has been published on http://u.to/J3_fDw

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

Rates: Higher EMU inflation and hawkish FOMC Minutes won’t bring relief for bonds Focus turns to the EMU inflation reading and FOMC Minutes today. Following yesterday’s higher German CPI gauges, risks for the EMU inflation are firmly on the upside of expectations, but markets should be prepared. FOMC Minutes will likely reflect the hawkish spin at the December Fed meeting. The combination of both doesn’t call for a comeback of core bonds.

Currencies: USD testing recent highs against the euro and the yen Yesterday, a rise in core bond yields caused the dollar to test recent highs against the euro and the yen. For now, a sustained break didn’t occur. Today, the focus for global trading is on the EMU inflation and on the Fed Minutes. The dollar might take a breather after yesterday’s rally. The Fed minutes are a wildcard.

US equities closed the session with solid, broad-based gains, but off ISM-induced intraday highs. Overnight, Asian equities register small to modest gains apart from Japan which returns from holidays and profits from yen weakness.

US manufacturing ISM sentiment was iron-strong with headline at 54.7 (from 53.2), new orders at 60.2 (53) and price paid soaring to 65.5 (54.5). Modest improvement in employment to 53.1 (52.3). Strong start of year.

The dollar is slightly higher overnight after a strong run yesterday that fell just shy of breaking key technical levels against the euro. USD/JPY is again close to the cycle highs, after it couldn’t sustain above rally highs yesterday.

The Mexican peso sharply weakened and threatens cycle lows following US auto maker Ford’s announcement it will scrap plans to build a new $1.6B factory in Mexico. USD/MXN trades slightly above 21.

Denmark’s central bank intervened in currency markets in December for the first time since June, as the krone approaches what analysts estimate are the strongest levels “that the bank will allow”.

China has studied possible scenarios for the yuan and capital outflows this year and is preparing contingency plans, according to people familiar with the matter.

According to the FT, Trumps’ appetite for very long debt issuance will meet resistance inside the Treasury, as worries grow that too much experimentation could be destabilizing especially at a time of a rising budget deficit.

Today, attention goes to the EMU final services PMI and the HICP inflation. The US eco calendar contains only the car sales, but the FOMC Minutes will be scrutinized for signs how the Fed members perceive the fiscal outlook

Dollar tests key resistance but no break yet

On Tuesday, the dollar resumed its uptrend supported by a rise in core bond yields. Remarkably, this resumption of the reflation trade was triggered by a sharp rise in German inflation. A strong US manufacturing ISM and an initial rise of the oil price reinforced this trade. EUR/USD set a minor multi-year low. USD/JPY just missed the 118.66 correction top. Later, a correction in the oil price blocked the rise of core yields and of the dollar. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.0405 (from 1.0455). USD/JPY finished the day at 117.75 (from 117.55).

Overnight, Japanese equities jumped sharply higher (gains of about 2.5 %) at their first trading session of the year. Other regional markets show modest gains. The PBOC fixed the yuan at USD/CNY 6.9526, the weakest yuan level since 2008. However, both the CNY and the CNH trade stronger against the dollar as Chinese authorities are said to slow the decline of the yuan. The dollar is again better bid after yesterday’s late session setback. USD/JPY again tries to sustain north of the 118 level. EUR/USD is changing hands near the 1.04 barrier.

Today, the final EMU services PMI for December and the inflation data are up for release. After the upward surprise of German inflation, risks for the headline EMU inflation are on the upside of expectations. Markets expect a rise to 1% Y/Y from 0.6% Y/Y. The main attention will go to the core inflation, expected stable at 0.8% Y/Y. Here we side with the consensus, but an unlikely rise in the core inflation would certainly be noticed in the current reflationary market thinking. The Minutes of the December Fed meeting will be published after the European close. Markets will look for a shift in thinking based on future fiscal policy easing. The Fed Fund future curve currently discounts a 36.6% chance for a March rate increase. A hawkish report may raise the odds and support the dollar. Overall though, we still expect the FOMC to wait a bit longer before enacting another rate increase.

Yesterday, the dollar profited from higher core yields and tested key resistance against the euro and the yen, but no sustained break occurred (yet). Today, EMU inflation might also beat the consensus. However, we don’t expect a similar reaction of global interest rate markets and of the dollar as was the case yesterday. With no key eco data in the US, the dollar rally might take a breather That said, the downside of the US currency looks well protected going into the next key US data.

Global context: EUR/USD touched a new multi-year low at 1.0341 yesterday. After the Trump rally, there is already a lot of good USD news discounted. Interest rate differentials between the dollar and the euro remain very high, but didn’t widen anymore of late, slowing the rise of the dollar. Even, so, the absolute interest rate support should provide a solid USD bottom as long as US data remain good and as long as there are no profound doubts on the ability of the Trump-administration to execute a pro-growth agenda. EUR/USD 1.0341 is the first reference. A test of parity remains possible. EUR/USD 1.0653/70 is a first resistance. A return north of 1.0874 would question the USD positive momentum.

EUR/USD testing the cycle low, but no sustained break yet

EUR/GBP

Sterling hardly profits from strong PMI

On Tuesday, sterling traded strong during the morning session. The decline of EUR/USD also weighed on EUR/GBP. The UK currency was additionally supported by a very strong UK manufacturing PMI. Later in the session, sterling lost ground/returned some of its gains against the euro. The UK ambassador with the EU leaving his post might have triggered some renewed Brexit caution. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8503 (from 0.8517). Cable finished the session at 1.2237 (from 1.2278).

Today, the UK construction PMI and the UK credit an money supply data will be published. The UK construction PMI is expected marginally softer at 52.5 from 52.8. Credit data are expected solid. We expect the data to remain constructive, but they are no real market movers.

Sterling held strong in November and December, but lost some momentum in the second half of last month. The euro remains soft across the board, but EUR/GBP is holding a sideways trading pattern in the 0.85 area. For now, we see no trigger for a clear directional move. Uncertainty on the next steps in the Brexit debate make sustained sterling gains difficult in the run-up to the end of March article 50 deadline. We slightly prefer a buy-on-dips strategy in case of return action toward the 0.8300 ST range bottom.

EUR/GBP holding sideways range off the 0.8330 correction low

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Read More http://u.to/J3_fDw

[chloe-jayde]

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

New Post has been published on http://u.to/J3_fDw

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

Rates: Higher EMU inflation and hawkish FOMC Minutes won’t bring relief for bonds Focus turns to the EMU inflation reading and FOMC Minutes today. Following yesterday’s higher German CPI gauges, risks for the EMU inflation are firmly on the upside of expectations, but markets should be prepared. FOMC Minutes will likely reflect the hawkish spin at the December Fed meeting. The combination of both doesn’t call for a comeback of core bonds.

Currencies: USD testing recent highs against the euro and the yen Yesterday, a rise in core bond yields caused the dollar to test recent highs against the euro and the yen. For now, a sustained break didn’t occur. Today, the focus for global trading is on the EMU inflation and on the Fed Minutes. The dollar might take a breather after yesterday’s rally. The Fed minutes are a wildcard.

US equities closed the session with solid, broad-based gains, but off ISM-induced intraday highs. Overnight, Asian equities register small to modest gains apart from Japan which returns from holidays and profits from yen weakness.

US manufacturing ISM sentiment was iron-strong with headline at 54.7 (from 53.2), new orders at 60.2 (53) and price paid soaring to 65.5 (54.5). Modest improvement in employment to 53.1 (52.3). Strong start of year.

The dollar is slightly higher overnight after a strong run yesterday that fell just shy of breaking key technical levels against the euro. USD/JPY is again close to the cycle highs, after it couldn’t sustain above rally highs yesterday.

The Mexican peso sharply weakened and threatens cycle lows following US auto maker Ford’s announcement it will scrap plans to build a new $1.6B factory in Mexico. USD/MXN trades slightly above 21.

Denmark’s central bank intervened in currency markets in December for the first time since June, as the krone approaches what analysts estimate are the strongest levels “that the bank will allow”.

China has studied possible scenarios for the yuan and capital outflows this year and is preparing contingency plans, according to people familiar with the matter.

According to the FT, Trumps’ appetite for very long debt issuance will meet resistance inside the Treasury, as worries grow that too much experimentation could be destabilizing especially at a time of a rising budget deficit.

Today, attention goes to the EMU final services PMI and the HICP inflation. The US eco calendar contains only the car sales, but the FOMC Minutes will be scrutinized for signs how the Fed members perceive the fiscal outlook

Dollar tests key resistance but no break yet

On Tuesday, the dollar resumed its uptrend supported by a rise in core bond yields. Remarkably, this resumption of the reflation trade was triggered by a sharp rise in German inflation. A strong US manufacturing ISM and an initial rise of the oil price reinforced this trade. EUR/USD set a minor multi-year low. USD/JPY just missed the 118.66 correction top. Later, a correction in the oil price blocked the rise of core yields and of the dollar. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.0405 (from 1.0455). USD/JPY finished the day at 117.75 (from 117.55).

Overnight, Japanese equities jumped sharply higher (gains of about 2.5 %) at their first trading session of the year. Other regional markets show modest gains. The PBOC fixed the yuan at USD/CNY 6.9526, the weakest yuan level since 2008. However, both the CNY and the CNH trade stronger against the dollar as Chinese authorities are said to slow the decline of the yuan. The dollar is again better bid after yesterday’s late session setback. USD/JPY again tries to sustain north of the 118 level. EUR/USD is changing hands near the 1.04 barrier.

Today, the final EMU services PMI for December and the inflation data are up for release. After the upward surprise of German inflation, risks for the headline EMU inflation are on the upside of expectations. Markets expect a rise to 1% Y/Y from 0.6% Y/Y. The main attention will go to the core inflation, expected stable at 0.8% Y/Y. Here we side with the consensus, but an unlikely rise in the core inflation would certainly be noticed in the current reflationary market thinking. The Minutes of the December Fed meeting will be published after the European close. Markets will look for a shift in thinking based on future fiscal policy easing. The Fed Fund future curve currently discounts a 36.6% chance for a March rate increase. A hawkish report may raise the odds and support the dollar. Overall though, we still expect the FOMC to wait a bit longer before enacting another rate increase.

Yesterday, the dollar profited from higher core yields and tested key resistance against the euro and the yen, but no sustained break occurred (yet). Today, EMU inflation might also beat the consensus. However, we don’t expect a similar reaction of global interest rate markets and of the dollar as was the case yesterday. With no key eco data in the US, the dollar rally might take a breather That said, the downside of the US currency looks well protected going into the next key US data.

Global context: EUR/USD touched a new multi-year low at 1.0341 yesterday. After the Trump rally, there is already a lot of good USD news discounted. Interest rate differentials between the dollar and the euro remain very high, but didn’t widen anymore of late, slowing the rise of the dollar. Even, so, the absolute interest rate support should provide a solid USD bottom as long as US data remain good and as long as there are no profound doubts on the ability of the Trump-administration to execute a pro-growth agenda. EUR/USD 1.0341 is the first reference. A test of parity remains possible. EUR/USD 1.0653/70 is a first resistance. A return north of 1.0874 would question the USD positive momentum.

EUR/USD testing the cycle low, but no sustained break yet

EUR/GBP

Sterling hardly profits from strong PMI

On Tuesday, sterling traded strong during the morning session. The decline of EUR/USD also weighed on EUR/GBP. The UK currency was additionally supported by a very strong UK manufacturing PMI. Later in the session, sterling lost ground/returned some of its gains against the euro. The UK ambassador with the EU leaving his post might have triggered some renewed Brexit caution. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8503 (from 0.8517). Cable finished the session at 1.2237 (from 1.2278).

Today, the UK construction PMI and the UK credit an money supply data will be published. The UK construction PMI is expected marginally softer at 52.5 from 52.8. Credit data are expected solid. We expect the data to remain constructive, but they are no real market movers.

Sterling held strong in November and December, but lost some momentum in the second half of last month. The euro remains soft across the board, but EUR/GBP is holding a sideways trading pattern in the 0.85 area. For now, we see no trigger for a clear directional move. Uncertainty on the next steps in the Brexit debate make sustained sterling gains difficult in the run-up to the end of March article 50 deadline. We slightly prefer a buy-on-dips strategy in case of return action toward the 0.8300 ST range bottom.

EUR/GBP holding sideways range off the 0.8330 correction low

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Read More http://u.to/J3_fDw

[cute1dfacts]

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

New Post has been published on http://u.to/J3_fDw

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

Rates: Higher EMU inflation and hawkish FOMC Minutes won’t bring relief for bonds Focus turns to the EMU inflation reading and FOMC Minutes today. Following yesterday’s higher German CPI gauges, risks for the EMU inflation are firmly on the upside of expectations, but markets should be prepared. FOMC Minutes will likely reflect the hawkish spin at the December Fed meeting. The combination of both doesn’t call for a comeback of core bonds.

Currencies: USD testing recent highs against the euro and the yen Yesterday, a rise in core bond yields caused the dollar to test recent highs against the euro and the yen. For now, a sustained break didn’t occur. Today, the focus for global trading is on the EMU inflation and on the Fed Minutes. The dollar might take a breather after yesterday’s rally. The Fed minutes are a wildcard.

US equities closed the session with solid, broad-based gains, but off ISM-induced intraday highs. Overnight, Asian equities register small to modest gains apart from Japan which returns from holidays and profits from yen weakness.

US manufacturing ISM sentiment was iron-strong with headline at 54.7 (from 53.2), new orders at 60.2 (53) and price paid soaring to 65.5 (54.5). Modest improvement in employment to 53.1 (52.3). Strong start of year.

The dollar is slightly higher overnight after a strong run yesterday that fell just shy of breaking key technical levels against the euro. USD/JPY is again close to the cycle highs, after it couldn’t sustain above rally highs yesterday.

The Mexican peso sharply weakened and threatens cycle lows following US auto maker Ford’s announcement it will scrap plans to build a new $1.6B factory in Mexico. USD/MXN trades slightly above 21.

Denmark’s central bank intervened in currency markets in December for the first time since June, as the krone approaches what analysts estimate are the strongest levels “that the bank will allow”.

China has studied possible scenarios for the yuan and capital outflows this year and is preparing contingency plans, according to people familiar with the matter.

According to the FT, Trumps’ appetite for very long debt issuance will meet resistance inside the Treasury, as worries grow that too much experimentation could be destabilizing especially at a time of a rising budget deficit.

Today, attention goes to the EMU final services PMI and the HICP inflation. The US eco calendar contains only the car sales, but the FOMC Minutes will be scrutinized for signs how the Fed members perceive the fiscal outlook

Dollar tests key resistance but no break yet

On Tuesday, the dollar resumed its uptrend supported by a rise in core bond yields. Remarkably, this resumption of the reflation trade was triggered by a sharp rise in German inflation. A strong US manufacturing ISM and an initial rise of the oil price reinforced this trade. EUR/USD set a minor multi-year low. USD/JPY just missed the 118.66 correction top. Later, a correction in the oil price blocked the rise of core yields and of the dollar. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.0405 (from 1.0455). USD/JPY finished the day at 117.75 (from 117.55).

Overnight, Japanese equities jumped sharply higher (gains of about 2.5 %) at their first trading session of the year. Other regional markets show modest gains. The PBOC fixed the yuan at USD/CNY 6.9526, the weakest yuan level since 2008. However, both the CNY and the CNH trade stronger against the dollar as Chinese authorities are said to slow the decline of the yuan. The dollar is again better bid after yesterday’s late session setback. USD/JPY again tries to sustain north of the 118 level. EUR/USD is changing hands near the 1.04 barrier.

Today, the final EMU services PMI for December and the inflation data are up for release. After the upward surprise of German inflation, risks for the headline EMU inflation are on the upside of expectations. Markets expect a rise to 1% Y/Y from 0.6% Y/Y. The main attention will go to the core inflation, expected stable at 0.8% Y/Y. Here we side with the consensus, but an unlikely rise in the core inflation would certainly be noticed in the current reflationary market thinking. The Minutes of the December Fed meeting will be published after the European close. Markets will look for a shift in thinking based on future fiscal policy easing. The Fed Fund future curve currently discounts a 36.6% chance for a March rate increase. A hawkish report may raise the odds and support the dollar. Overall though, we still expect the FOMC to wait a bit longer before enacting another rate increase.

Yesterday, the dollar profited from higher core yields and tested key resistance against the euro and the yen, but no sustained break occurred (yet). Today, EMU inflation might also beat the consensus. However, we don’t expect a similar reaction of global interest rate markets and of the dollar as was the case yesterday. With no key eco data in the US, the dollar rally might take a breather That said, the downside of the US currency looks well protected going into the next key US data.

Global context: EUR/USD touched a new multi-year low at 1.0341 yesterday. After the Trump rally, there is already a lot of good USD news discounted. Interest rate differentials between the dollar and the euro remain very high, but didn’t widen anymore of late, slowing the rise of the dollar. Even, so, the absolute interest rate support should provide a solid USD bottom as long as US data remain good and as long as there are no profound doubts on the ability of the Trump-administration to execute a pro-growth agenda. EUR/USD 1.0341 is the first reference. A test of parity remains possible. EUR/USD 1.0653/70 is a first resistance. A return north of 1.0874 would question the USD positive momentum.

EUR/USD testing the cycle low, but no sustained break yet

EUR/GBP

Sterling hardly profits from strong PMI

On Tuesday, sterling traded strong during the morning session. The decline of EUR/USD also weighed on EUR/GBP. The UK currency was additionally supported by a very strong UK manufacturing PMI. Later in the session, sterling lost ground/returned some of its gains against the euro. The UK ambassador with the EU leaving his post might have triggered some renewed Brexit caution. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8503 (from 0.8517). Cable finished the session at 1.2237 (from 1.2278).

Today, the UK construction PMI and the UK credit an money supply data will be published. The UK construction PMI is expected marginally softer at 52.5 from 52.8. Credit data are expected solid. We expect the data to remain constructive, but they are no real market movers.

Sterling held strong in November and December, but lost some momentum in the second half of last month. The euro remains soft across the board, but EUR/GBP is holding a sideways trading pattern in the 0.85 area. For now, we see no trigger for a clear directional move. Uncertainty on the next steps in the Brexit debate make sustained sterling gains difficult in the run-up to the end of March article 50 deadline. We slightly prefer a buy-on-dips strategy in case of return action toward the 0.8300 ST range bottom.

EUR/GBP holding sideways range off the 0.8330 correction low

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Read More http://u.to/J3_fDw

[taylordmorris]

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

New Post has been published on http://u.to/J3_fDw

USD Testing Recent Highs Against The Euro And The Yen

Rates: Higher EMU inflation and hawkish FOMC Minutes won’t bring relief for bonds Focus turns to the EMU inflation reading and FOMC Minutes today. Following yesterday’s higher German CPI gauges, risks for the EMU inflation are firmly on the upside of expectations, but markets should be prepared. FOMC Minutes will likely reflect the hawkish spin at the December Fed meeting. The combination of both doesn’t call for a comeback of core bonds.

Currencies: USD testing recent highs against the euro and the yen Yesterday, a rise in core bond yields caused the dollar to test recent highs against the euro and the yen. For now, a sustained break didn’t occur. Today, the focus for global trading is on the EMU inflation and on the Fed Minutes. The dollar might take a breather after yesterday’s rally. The Fed minutes are a wildcard.

US equities closed the session with solid, broad-based gains, but off ISM-induced intraday highs. Overnight, Asian equities register small to modest gains apart from Japan which returns from holidays and profits from yen weakness.

US manufacturing ISM sentiment was iron-strong with headline at 54.7 (from 53.2), new orders at 60.2 (53) and price paid soaring to 65.5 (54.5). Modest improvement in employment to 53.1 (52.3). Strong start of year.

The dollar is slightly higher overnight after a strong run yesterday that fell just shy of breaking key technical levels against the euro. USD/JPY is again close to the cycle highs, after it couldn’t sustain above rally highs yesterday.

The Mexican peso sharply weakened and threatens cycle lows following US auto maker Ford’s announcement it will scrap plans to build a new $1.6B factory in Mexico. USD/MXN trades slightly above 21.

Denmark’s central bank intervened in currency markets in December for the first time since June, as the krone approaches what analysts estimate are the strongest levels “that the bank will allow”.

China has studied possible scenarios for the yuan and capital outflows this year and is preparing contingency plans, according to people familiar with the matter.

According to the FT, Trumps’ appetite for very long debt issuance will meet resistance inside the Treasury, as worries grow that too much experimentation could be destabilizing especially at a time of a rising budget deficit.

Today, attention goes to the EMU final services PMI and the HICP inflation. The US eco calendar contains only the car sales, but the FOMC Minutes will be scrutinized for signs how the Fed members perceive the fiscal outlook

Dollar tests key resistance but no break yet

On Tuesday, the dollar resumed its uptrend supported by a rise in core bond yields. Remarkably, this resumption of the reflation trade was triggered by a sharp rise in German inflation. A strong US manufacturing ISM and an initial rise of the oil price reinforced this trade. EUR/USD set a minor multi-year low. USD/JPY just missed the 118.66 correction top. Later, a correction in the oil price blocked the rise of core yields and of the dollar. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.0405 (from 1.0455). USD/JPY finished the day at 117.75 (from 117.55).

Overnight, Japanese equities jumped sharply higher (gains of about 2.5 %) at their first trading session of the year. Other regional markets show modest gains. The PBOC fixed the yuan at USD/CNY 6.9526, the weakest yuan level since 2008. However, both the CNY and the CNH trade stronger against the dollar as Chinese authorities are said to slow the decline of the yuan. The dollar is again better bid after yesterday’s late session setback. USD/JPY again tries to sustain north of the 118 level. EUR/USD is changing hands near the 1.04 barrier.

Today, the final EMU services PMI for December and the inflation data are up for release. After the upward surprise of German inflation, risks for the headline EMU inflation are on the upside of expectations. Markets expect a rise to 1% Y/Y from 0.6% Y/Y. The main attention will go to the core inflation, expected stable at 0.8% Y/Y. Here we side with the consensus, but an unlikely rise in the core inflation would certainly be noticed in the current reflationary market thinking. The Minutes of the December Fed meeting will be published after the European close. Markets will look for a shift in thinking based on future fiscal policy easing. The Fed Fund future curve currently discounts a 36.6% chance for a March rate increase. A hawkish report may raise the odds and support the dollar. Overall though, we still expect the FOMC to wait a bit longer before enacting another rate increase.

Yesterday, the dollar profited from higher core yields and tested key resistance against the euro and the yen, but no sustained break occurred (yet). Today, EMU inflation might also beat the consensus. However, we don’t expect a similar reaction of global interest rate markets and of the dollar as was the case yesterday. With no key eco data in the US, the dollar rally might take a breather That said, the downside of the US currency looks well protected going into the next key US data.

Global context: EUR/USD touched a new multi-year low at 1.0341 yesterday. After the Trump rally, there is already a lot of good USD news discounted. Interest rate differentials between the dollar and the euro remain very high, but didn’t widen anymore of late, slowing the rise of the dollar. Even, so, the absolute interest rate support should provide a solid USD bottom as long as US data remain good and as long as there are no profound doubts on the ability of the Trump-administration to execute a pro-growth agenda. EUR/USD 1.0341 is the first reference. A test of parity remains possible. EUR/USD 1.0653/70 is a first resistance. A return north of 1.0874 would question the USD positive momentum.

EUR/USD testing the cycle low, but no sustained break yet

EUR/GBP

Sterling hardly profits from strong PMI

On Tuesday, sterling traded strong during the morning session. The decline of EUR/USD also weighed on EUR/GBP. The UK currency was additionally supported by a very strong UK manufacturing PMI. Later in the session, sterling lost ground/returned some of its gains against the euro. The UK ambassador with the EU leaving his post might have triggered some renewed Brexit caution. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8503 (from 0.8517). Cable finished the session at 1.2237 (from 1.2278).

Today, the UK construction PMI and the UK credit an money supply data will be published. The UK construction PMI is expected marginally softer at 52.5 from 52.8. Credit data are expected solid. We expect the data to remain constructive, but they are no real market movers.

Sterling held strong in November and December, but lost some momentum in the second half of last month. The euro remains soft across the board, but EUR/GBP is holding a sideways trading pattern in the 0.85 area. For now, we see no trigger for a clear directional move. Uncertainty on the next steps in the Brexit debate make sustained sterling gains difficult in the run-up to the end of March article 50 deadline. We slightly prefer a buy-on-dips strategy in case of return action toward the 0.8300 ST range bottom.

EUR/GBP holding sideways range off the 0.8330 correction low

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Read More http://u.to/J3_fDw