#PP: Jane Stacks

[katatty]

Emily: What are you two doing loitering in the hallway? C'mon, we're playing drinking games.

Jane: We, um-

Martin: Sorry. Be right there.

Allegra: Look at you! You look really pretty tonight, Jane. I'm not even mad you stole my colour scheme.

Jane: Thanks! I didn't know you were doing black-and-white.

Allegra: Yeah, I couldn't decide whether to go for traditional or mega-goth, so...

Tybalt: Uh, sorry, can I just get through to the bathroom?

[duggardata]

Welcome to The World, Fern Elliana!

Get The Data Here.

On July 18, 2021, Fern Elliana Seewald was born.  She’s the Fourthborn Child of Jessa (Duggar) + Benjamin Seewald, joining 2 Brothers—Spurgeon Elliot (b. 2015) and Henry Wilberforce (b. 2017)—and 1 Sister, Ivy Jane (b. 2019).  Until Fern, Jessa had all Home Births, but Fern was born at a hospital—specifically, Washington Regional Medical Center in Fayetteville, AR.  Jessa + Ben took to social media—as opposed to tabloids like People or Us Weekly—to announce Fern’s arrival.  She made her debut on YouTube.

Read on for Fern’s impact on Jessa + Ben’s and the Duggar Family Data...

What Was Fern’s Due Date?

Jessa left us in suspense for her entire pregnancy; Duggar Data was honestly worried that we might never know her Due Date.  But, thankfully, she decided finally to spill the beans in Part 1 of Fern’s Birth Videos.  In that video (@ 6:41), title text pops up that says, “Due Date is July 17th!”  So, yeah...   Jessa’s Due Date with Fern was, apparently, July 17, 2021.  Thanks for the info, Jessa!

[ Permalink to Source ] 

With a confirmed Due Date in hand, we can move on to the Timing Data...

Timing of...  Pregnancy Announcement

Jessa + Ben went public with Pregnancy #4* on February 18, 2021.  (ET Online got the exclusive.)  Due July 17, 2021, Jessa was 131 Days Along (18 Weeks, 5 Days), at the time.  Here’s how her other Pregnancy Reveals compare—

w/ Spurgeon   86 Days Along  (Due Date—Nov. 1, 2015) 

w/ Henry   117 Days Along  (Due Date—Feb. 2, 2017)

w/ Ivy   133 Days Along  (Due Date—Jun. 5, 2019)

w/ Fern   131 Days Along  (Due Date—Jul. 17, 2021)      

Jessa + Ben’s Data.   Pre–Fern, Jessa + Ben announced at 112 Days Along, on average.  Factoring in Fern, that shifts to 117 Days Along (+5 Days) (16 Weeks, 5 Days).

Overall Duggar Data.   Up until Jessa + Ben’s 4th* Pregnancy Announcement, it the typical Duggar Pregnancy Announcement occurred at 94 Days Along.  With Fern factored in, this shifts to 95 Days Along (+1 Day).

... Sex / Name Reveal

As usual, Jessa + Ben waited until birth to publicly reveal the name or sex.  (But they found out, early on.)  This practice remains typical for them.

Overall Duggar Data.   Doing a pre–birth Sex Reveal is still ‘typical’ for Duggars, as they’ve been done for 17 of 22 GrandDuggars (77%), so far.  When its done, a Duggar Sex Reveal occurs at 149 Days Along (~21 Weeks), on average.  Now, as for Name Reveals...  Those are not at all typical for Duggars.  There’s been a pre–birth Name Reveal for only 2 GrandDuggars—Mackynzie and Samuel.

... Delivery vs. Due Date

Jessa’s Due Date was July 17, but Fern actually arrived on July 18th.  She was 1 Day Late.  Here’s how that compares with Jessa’s other deliveries—

Spurgeon   4 Days Late

Henry   4 Days Late

Ivy   10 Days Early

Fern   1 Day Late

Jessa + Ben’s Data.   Until Fern, Jessa delivered 1 Day Early [0.67], on average.  Now, with Fern’s data, it’s typical for Jessa to deliver On Time (+1 Day).

Overall Duggar Data.  Pre–Fern, your typical GrandDuggar arrived 2 Days Early [1.95].  With Fern, it remains 2 Days Early [1.82] (No Significant Change).

Birthweight + Length

At birth, Baby Fern was 8 Pounds, 5 Ounces, and 21 Inches Long.  Here’s how she stacks up with her siblings—

Spurgeon   9 Pounds, 11 Ounces; 21.25 Inches

Henry   8 Pounds, 11 Ounces; 21.75 Inches

Ivy   7 Pounds, 14 Ounces; 20.5 Inches

Fern   8 Pounds, 5 Ounces; 21 Inches

Jessa + Ben’s Data.   Until Fern came along, the typical Newborn Seewald was 8 Pounds, 12 Ounces and ~21 Inches Long.  Factoring in Fern, that shifted to 8 Pounds, 10 Ounces (–2 Oz.) and ~21 Inches Long (No Significant Change).  

Overall Duggar Data.   Currently, my spreadsheets aren’t set up to calculate the  ‘typical’ Birthweight + Length for the family’s newborns, overall.  Sorry!

Effect on Procreative Pace / ESOQ / Total Grands

Fern is a ‘rainbow baby.’  So...  She doesn’t affect Procreative Pace (PP), right?Like Hazel?  Actually, no, wrong.  Fern’s Child Spacing is a Post–Loss Spacing, but we have no idea of the Date of Loss—and therefore, can’t calculate a Child Spacing to associate with the prior loss.  Darn!  When this occurs, we factor in the loss by simply adjusting the subsequent Child Spacing—in this case, Fern—by the Gestational Age at Miscarriage or, if it’s unknown, by 42 Day.  (It’s our last resort to just assume it was a fairly–typical 6 Weeks Loss.  That’s where 42 Days comes from...  6 * 7 = 42.)

Okay, so...  Ivy’s DOB is Mary 26, 2019 and Fern's is July 18, 2021.  The actual Child Spacing is 784 Days.  Subtracting 42 Days from that, we get an adjusted Child Spacing of 742 Days.

Jessa + Ben’s Data.   Pre–Fern, Jessa + Ben’s Procreative Pace was 649 Days (1 Birth / ~21 Months).  Factoring in Fern’s Child Spacing (742 Days), that shifts to 680 Days (+31 Days), or 1 Birth / ~22 Months.  Based on this, their ESOQ is now 12 Children.

Overall Duggar Data.   Pre–Fern, the family’s typical Procreative Pace was 561 Days, or 1 Birth / 18.4 Months (Per Couple).  Factoring in Fern, this shifts a bit to 568 Days (+7 Days).  We’re heading in the right direction!

As of July 30, 2021, the Predictor expects a total of 222 GrandDuggars.    

When to Expect Seewald #5

Here’s what the Predictor expects with regard to Seewald #5—

Baby News   December 17, 2022

Sex / Name Reveal   At Birth

Due Date   May 29, 2023

Birthdate   May 29, 2023

Good luck, Fern!  Have a nice life.  We’re all rooting for you.

[vickisventures]

Road Trippin’

I think this has got to be the earliest I’ve ever seen snow fall.  We only got a couple of inches and it didn’t stick to the roads, but it was pretty and cold!  It is starting to melt now and the blobs dropping from the trees and falling on the roof of our RV makes it sound like we are under attack, but we are safe and warm inside.  We weren’t so sure we were going to be yesterday about this time.  We decided to go hiking yesterday morning.  There was a 5.6 mile hike called Hell’s Canyon that we’ve been wanting to do but we wanted cooler weather to do it in. Figured since it was only supposed to get to 47 degrees yesterday, it’d be “cooler.”  It was a nice hike with some pretty “fall” colors and 5 water crossings (thankfully the water wasn’t too high and there were rocks strategically placed for hopping across).  This area had a forest fire in 2000 and so some of the area is lacking trees and so we could only imagine what it looked like pre-fire but it was a worthwhile hike that took us around 2 ½ hours to complete.  So, we got back, ate some lunch and the temperature started to drop.  Time to crank up the heat…but it didn’t want to “crank.”  Déjà vu! (Happened with our last RV too.)  It would try to but the furnace wouldn’t stay on.  So, Steve started to troubleshoot. It took a couple of hours (and lots of prayers) but opening the motor and cleaning the sail switch (don’t ask me!) seemed to be the answer and the furnace kicked on. I’m not sure either one of us slept very well, waking up, wondering if the heater was still on and working but it was and still is.  I’m glad because it’s supposed to get down to 20 tonight.  Steve has unhooked the water hose and filled the fresh water tank so we don’t have to worry about the water freezing and we are just using the water in the tank.  Thank goodness for a heated underbelly and tank heaters!  This may be practice for our month in North Dakota!  

We have been trying to knock things off our to-do list.  Since we’ve still been doing online church, we decided to go to Deadwood on Sunday.  Also the gold mine was closing after Labor Day so we figured we were running out of time. We headed there first.  We couldn’t get on the next tour but they said if we’d wait an hour, we could go.  We just decided to sit in the truck and wait it out.  The tour was of an old gold mine that never made a ton of money.  It was interesting and when our guide lit a candle and turned off the lights in the tunnel, we got to see just how dark, dark is. I can’t imagine working in a mine with only a candle. Then we went to the Days of ’76 museum.  The town of Deadwood has had a rodeo and big celebration called the Days of ’76 since 1924 as a way to honor Deadwood's first pioneers - the prospectors, miners, muleskinners, and madams who poured into the Black Hills in 1876 to settle the gold-filled gulches of Dakota Territory.  The bottom floor of the museum had old wagons and carriages for you to look at.  That part was my favorite.  From there we went to find a place to park so we could walk Main Street.  There are lots of pay parking lots and garages but if you don’t mind a little walk, you can find a free lot north of town close to the Days of ’76 museum.  We figured since we were all about free, we’d do that!  We were ready for lunch and didn’t want burgers so we went to the Nugget Saloon which had good reviews on Trip Advisor for their pizza.  It was the best pizza I’d eaten in a while!  They have a secret recipe, whole wheat crust that was amazing.  We got an all meat pizza and were in heaven.  They also had a guy playing a guitar and singing so the place was packed.  I noticed they had an upstairs area and so I asked the lady at the bar if we could eat up there and she said we could if we ordered downstairs.  Wow, did we luck out.  There were only 2 tables (and a game room) upstairs but we were the only ones up there and we had a perfect view of the entertainer without having the music so loud you couldn’t talk.  Score! After that we headed to the Adam’s Museum.  It has a variety of exhibits and is free to the public.  The Adam’s House isn’t free ($10/pp) but we had our VIP passes and once again, kept our “free” day going.  It’s an old Victorian house that has had several well-known, local families live in it.  It was a beautiful house and the tour was very informative and enjoyable.  After that we found some ice cream (not free) and then our truck so we could drive to the Mt. Moriah cemetery where Wild Bill Hickock and Calamity Jane were buried (as well as some other famous people from the Wild West.)  There’s a fee to go in but we arrived after 5pm and the fee booth was closed.  It was a full day of activity but well worth it. Deadwood also has a lot of casinos (and street smokers) so although it was a nice place for a day trip, I wouldn’t want to stay there.  So, our VIP pass got us into everything without paying a penny; we just had to pay for food and gas…made for a pretty inexpensive day.

As for campground news, Labor Day weekend wasn’t too rough.  Thursday was busier than I expected and Friday was just as I’d expected.  We had 31 arrivals on Friday and although Jen and Bill were gone all afternoon, we survived without too many issues.  Guests did start rolling in around 11:15 (45 minutes prior to check-in time) and I made the decision to go ahead and let them do it. I figured if I could keep the 31 RV’s from stacking up on me, it’d be worth it.  We had 2 come in with trailers and UTV’s that we weren’t expecting and that did cause some stress as we tried to figure out where to park them.  I really don’t understand why people don’t mention that kind of thing when they are making their reservations!  It’s not like it’s easy to find space for UTV trailers. Then we heard Saturday evening that part of the park was without electricity.  We still haven’t heard the full story but apparently there was an overload that caused 2 sections of the campground to go dark.  They weren’t able to get it fixed that evening, so people had to be without electricity until the next morning.  It had gotten into the mid 90’s that day, we were full with a lot of big rigs and I figure a lot of people had all of their A/C’s running full steam and it was just too much.  Thankfully, we weren’t affected by it but I bet there were some unhappy campers!

We are supposed to go to Rapid City and get our fridge fixed tomorrow morning.  Prayers that it will actually work by the end of the day, would be appreciated.

3 more work weeks left…

[katatty]

Watching Allegra get married has Jane Stacks feeling all romantic and nostalgic for when they were all living together and she and Martin Ruben were a couple... and it seems like Martin is feeling the same way.

They really have trouble letting go of each other, even though they both have new romances now! But isn't that always the way...

[katatty]

Allegra doesn't get along with her parents and Emily's live overseas, so the wedding wasn't huge. Just friends from college, for the most part.

[katatty]

Jane: He’s adorable! It’d be nice to have one of my own, someday. What are you reading?

Tiffany: “What to expect when expecting”.

Jane: Haha, a little late perhaps! But I’m sure it’ll still come in handy.

Tiffany: What? Oh, yes, right.

[katatty]

Tiffany gets promoted on her first day back, and brings home fellow teacher Jane Stacks, and... seriously? They did woohoo last night (immediately after the birth, lol) but jeez.

[katatty]

Kevin and Jane got along really well, too. I can’t help worrying about all these backrubs! But maybe I’m being too vigilant, I dunno. Maybe it’s all just friendly.

[katatty]

Kevin: Jane, was it? Can I get you anytihng? Coffee, tea, cookies?

Jane: A coffee would be great!

Kevin: Coming right up. Where’d Tiffany go, anyway? Is she still reading that book?

Jane: She said she was feeling tired and went for a oie down.

Kevin: Ah, maybe I should make her a coffee, too...

[katatty]

Meanwhile, Castor spends the party fighting with River, and getting re-aquainted with old flame Jane Stacks.

[katatty]

Martin: Are you and Castor seriously getting back together?

Jane: Oh, I don’t know, probably not. I think it’s just drunken nostalgia.

Martin: Do you ever get nostalgia about... us?

[katatty]

[katatty]

“Just nostalgia”, huh. Hm. I should have guessed these 2 wouldn’t be able to stay away from each other forever.

[katatty]

[katatty]

Castor: Hey, Jane.

Jane: Oh, hi! It’s been a while, huh?

Castor: Yeah...  you look great! Country life suits you.

(Jane and Castor had ended things on pretty bad terms, before they really had the chance to start a relationship, but seemed pretty keen on each other upon meeting again.)

[katatty]

“And that’s why I think Fast & Furious 6 was better than Tokyo Drift.”

“Right. Anyweay, Jane, how was work?”

“Ugh, I’m thinking of just quitting.”

“No way, the kids all love you! This is just a small set-back, don’t give up yet.”