#Of the whole team i feel like mika and artemi are the two who seem to wilt a little when they arent performing at a level they think

[freebooter4ever]

Have you seen the interview after the ipad toss??

lol the one where mika is like 'you threw it, you explain it' with his big innocent eyes to chris?? :D yes that was pretty entertaining. im on chris's side in this, so much of the mental side of sports seems to be about confidence. 100% support him trying to bolster mika's confidence at any cost ^_^

[caniacwrites]

NHL Playoff Preview - East Play-in Matchup 3/4: CAR vs NYR

Hello, and welcome back to my series preview each of the upcoming matchups for the qualifying round of the 2020 NHL playoffs! Today, we’re taking a gander at the third matchup in the Eastern Conference, the Carolina Hurricanes vs the New York Rangers.

So here we are: the write-up I’ve simultaneously been looking forward to and dreading. I feel like I should include a disclaimer here, that I grew up in Raleigh and I’ve been a Hurricanes fan all my life. I’m going to try to be as unbiased as possible (while also not overcompensating so much that I end up conveying an opposite bias), but it’s a tricky balance to strike. Also, by dint of being a Canes fan, there’s also the simple fact that I know more about Carolina than I do any other team, so I’ll likely end up giving them more focus. Still, I’ll do my best to keep it relatively even.

Ok, so first off, there’ve been a lot of jokes being made about how Carolina was one of two teams to vote against the Return to Play plan as it was proposed, that they did that because they were scared of playing against the Rangers. There was more to it than that, which I won’t go into here, but also... the joke works because it’s kind of true.

The Canes have lost 19 of their last 20 games at Madison Square Garden including both this year, en route to dropping all 4 games of the season series against the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist has been a Cane-Killer his entire career, and unfortunately, his two young protegées Alex Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin both seem to have inherited that trait from him. So many of the Hurricanes’ recent losses to New York that I can remember were almost single-handedly won by the Rangers’ goaltender, whoever it happened to be on that particular night. And in the playoffs, running up against a hot goalie is a death sentence.

New York

Of course, the Rangers have a lot else to talk about, too. FA signing from Columbus Artemi Panarin is easily a leading candidate for the Hart with his 63 assists - tied for 2nd in the league with Connor McDavid - and 95 points. He’s shattered his previous career high by 8 points in 10 fewer games, and was on track to record 110+ in a full-length season. Mika Zibanejad has benefitted enormously from playing with Panarin, also setting a new career high in points in 25 fewer games. He’s also one of just five players in the NHL to score 40+ goals.

Panarin and Zibanejad may be the superstars, but their lineup isn’t top-heavy. The Rangers have seven players who have scored at least 40 points - two of whom are defensemen, Adam Fox and Tony DeAngelo - and four who have at least 50. Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich, two speedy, strong forwards, both had great seasons, and will need to continue to be key factors for the Rangers to make a deep playoff run.

New York is still a pretty young lineup, though, and it remains to be seen if they can buckle down and play playoff hockey. If they want to succeed, they’re going to need a little more depth production from guys like 2019 2nd overall pick Kaapo Kakko and Philip Chytil.

Carolina

Like the Rangers, the Hurricanes also have a good balance of point-producing stars and bottom 6 depth. Sebastian Aho finished the shortened season with a career-high 38 goals in 68 games, up from 30 in the full 82 game season last year. If not for the virus can cancellation, he would’ve easily eclisped 40 and likely even gotten to at least 45. Even so, he was tied for 20th in the NHL in points and tied for 6th in goals.

Aho’s fellow Finn Teuvo Teravainen has also continued to be a consistent producer with 63 points.

Andrei Svechnikov, the #2 pick in the 2018 draft the year before Kakko, has also really begun to come into his own this season. He set career highs in all three offensive categories with 24 goals and 37 assists for 61 points in just 68 games, obliterating his rookie year totals of 20 goals and 17 assists for 37 points in the full 82 games. 

Carolina is one of only five teams with 3 or more 60+ point scorers. The other four? Edmonton (Draisaitl, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins), Tampa Bay (Kucherov, Stamkos, Point), Toronto (Marner, Matthews, Tavares), and Winnipeg (Connor, Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine). I don’t know about you, but I think that’s some pretty good company.

Carolina’s depth scoring has been a slight problem at times, but the acquisition of Vincent Trochek at the deadline and the return of Justin Williams were already starting to improve that in the short time before the season was cancelled.

There’s also going to be a lot of attention on the Canes’ goaltending duo Petr Mrazek and James Reimer. They’ve been very good at times but have also struggled for consistency, and it’s going to be vital that they be able to backstop the Canes from the crease.

Injuries

I’m giving this one a whole section because it’s huge. The Hurricanes are going to be getting some big pieces back from injury by the time the qualifying round begins. Brett Pesce will still be recovering from shoulder surgery, unfortunately, but Ryan Dzingel and Sami Vatanen will both be available for the start of the series vs New York.

By far the most important return for Carolina, though, will be Dougie Hamilton.

Hamilton is, to use a phrase of Tripp Tracy’s, “the straw that stirs the drink,” in so many ways. He’s a cornerstone of both special teams units, a reliable defender who also provides tons of offense. Before he got injured, he’d notched 14 goals and 40 points in 47 games and was a leading candidate to be nominated for the Norris trophy for Best Defenseman. He was on track for a career-high 20+ goals and 70+ points, until an unfortunate collision in mid-January fractured his fibula and kept him out for the rest of the shortened season. The positive impact of what his return will do for the team can’t be understated.

Defense

That leads me nicely into the next thing I wanted to touch on briefly: defense. The Rangers corps of defensemen is really good.  They have some great young players in Fox, DeAngelo, and Jacob Trouba, and veterans Marc Staal and Brendan Smith to help anchor them. 

But Carolina’s group is incredible, easily one of the best in the league. Jaccob Slavin is one of the most consistent players in the entire NHL. You always know what you’re going to get from him, and it’s always going to be top-tier defense. When he’s reunited with his now-healthy partner Dougie Hamilton, the Hurricanes’ top pairing has few equals.

Additionally, the acquisitions of Brady Skjei and Sami Vatanen at the deadline could make Carolina’s defensive pairs look something like this:

Slavin - Hamilton

Gardiner - Skjei

Edmundson - Vatanen

That’s an exceptional lineup that has a great balance of helping boost the offense of prodiving solid defense. And that even leaves out Trevor van Reimsdyk and Haydn Fleury as healthy scratches - both of whom have been really good this year - and of course, the injury to Brett Pesce. Carolina has a plethora of skilled defensemen, and now that they’re (almost) all going to be healthy, the Hurricanes are going to be even more dangerous than before.

Special Teams

The last thing I want to talk about before I reveal my prediction is, as usual, special teams. And honestly, it doesn’t make the final decision any easier. These teams continue to be very evenly-matched, even in the special teams department.

Thanks to their strong groups of star forwards and high-talent offensive defensemen, both teams have dangerous powerplays. The Rangers with the 7th best PP at 22.9%, and Carolina came in right under them in 8th with 22.3%. But Carolina’s PP is going to hugely benefit from returning Hamilton and Williams to the top unit and adding Trochek and Vatanen to the second unit, so I think I give them a slight edge.

There’s another reason I think that, though. The Hurricanes penalty kill is very good - 4th in the NHL, in fact, at 84%. They’re also tied for 2nd in the NHL with 10 shorthanded goals, 4 of which have been scored by Sebastian Aho. The Rangers, meanwhile, have the 9th worst PK at just 77.4%. 

Final Prediction: Carolina, 3-2

Now I know what you’re thinking, of course I picked Carolina. And I admit, it is partially because that’s who I want to win. And yes, there’s the Curse of MSG to consider. But Carolina could still win the series even without winning a game in New York. The bottom line is that both of these teams are very closely matched and there’s a lot that could swing the series either way. For the Hurricanes to win, they need to capitalize on their powerplay chances to solve the Rangers goaltending, and they need Mrazek and Reimer to be at their best. If they can get those things, I think the Hurricanes will win.

Be sure to stop by tomorrow for my look at the final play-in matchup in the East, the Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens!

CaniacWrites